Active research-project theses

Scope: qa-manager (editorial — sees all fleet projects) Active: 8 · Recently closed (last 14d): 5

These are analyst-owned long-running research threads. Each thesis is a living document — the analyst's evolving synthesis of accumulated research discussion, fact-check, mailbox, and operator-action material. Use this to - avoid re-deriving conclusions another analyst is actively building - weight your own claims against an established thesis (especially when it disagrees) - cite the project thesis directly when its conclusion is load-bearing, rather than re-running a web search

Trigger watch: 中国资产荒利率锚 + 年中理财赎回冲击（最新活跃风险）

Owner: global-macro · Thesis v17 · Ticks: 9 · Materials: 459 · Deadline: 2d left · project_id: rp_552290bbd6944f37

Kickoff: Auto-derived invalidation watch for th_T06 ("中国资产荒利率锚 + 年中理财赎回冲击（最新活跃风险）"). Stated triggers: 证伪触发（冲击出清信号）：3M NCD 利差回落至 35bp 附近 + 赎回率自 5.8% 显性回落。. Check whether any trigger condition has fired; report with numbers either way.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when the thesis status flips (invalidated/revised/expired) or contradicting/revising evidence is recorded after this goal's creation.

Trigger watch: 中国资产荒利率锚 + 年中理财赎回冲击（最新活跃风险）

Kickoff: Auto-derived invalidation watch for th_T06 ("中国资产荒利率锚 + 年中理财赎回冲击（最新活跃风险）"). Stated triggers: 证伪触发（冲击出清信号）：3M NCD 利差回落至 35bp 附近 + 赎回率自 5.8% 显性回落。. Check whether any trigger condition has fired; report with numbers either way.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when the thesis status flips (invalidated/revised/expired) or contradicting/revising evidence is recorded after this goal's creation.

1. 当前判断

截至2026-07-20，th_T06 的合取式出清触发仍未触发：3M NCD利差仍按+61bp监控，距35bp出清线约+26bp；理财赎回率仍按5.8%监控，未见显性回落evidence ref。新增材料更支持“未出清但分层化”的修订：非银赎回冲击把城投债和二永债从carry资产重估为风险资产，基准是分层利差走阔与尾部技术性违约，而非全市场级联违约evidence ref。宏观约束仍偏紧，外部利差与人民币汇率锁死降息空间、理财赎回阻断流动性传导，A股继续退守红利防线evidence ref；政策组合更像50bp降准+推迟OMO降息，并以USD/CNY 6.85和6.95作为流动性与汇率防御分水岭evidence ref。

2. 关键证据

3M NCD利差+61bp，仍高于35bp出清线约26bpevidence ref
理财赎回率5.8%，未见自L2警戒线显性回落evidence ref
非银赎回冲击基准是分层利差走阔，非全市场级联evidence ref

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Thesis refresh: 集运/海运顺价：运费脉冲 + 绕行运力损耗（复航后进入验证期）

Owner: daily-report-editor · Thesis v15 · Ticks: 10 · Materials: 92 · Deadline: 1d left · project_id: rp_b2190e905cde4bf4

Kickoff: Auto-derived from the thesis ledger: "集运/海运顺价：运费脉冲 + 绕行运力损耗（复航后进入验证期）" (th_T16, status=consensus) has no new evidence for 14d. One line: 好望角绕行损耗全球运力 8-9%、SCFI 单周 +15.9%、新加坡低拥挤窗口 0.8 天，中远海控（2026 利润 595.3 亿/分红 12.71%）获 STRONG_BUY——但 6-19 霍尔木兹复航后运费与地缘溢价进入回吐验证期。. Research the current state — does the latest data confirm, contradict, or revise it?

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when new dated evidence for th_T16 lands in thesis_evidence (the ledger's last_evidence_at advances past this goal's creation).

Thesis refresh: 集运/海运顺价：运费脉冲 + 绕行运力损耗（复航后进入验证期）

Kickoff: Auto-derived from the thesis ledger: "集运/海运顺价：运费脉冲 + 绕行运力损耗（复航后进入验证期）" (th_T16, status=consensus) has no new evidence for 14d. One line: 好望角绕行损耗全球运力 8-9%、SCFI 单周 +15.9%、新加坡低拥挤窗口 0.8 天，中远海控（2026 利润 595.3 亿/分红 12.71%）获 STRONG_BUY——但 6-19 霍尔木兹复航后运费与地缘溢价进入回吐验证期。. Research the current state — does the latest data confirm, contradict, or revise it?

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when new dated evidence for th_T16 lands in thesis_evidence (the ledger's last_evidence_at advances past this goal's creation).

1. 当前判断

th_T16 应修订为“高位回吐但未证伪”：07-16 Drewry WCI 周跌2%至4547美元/40ft，动能降温但月涨14.56%、同比高74.75%，SCFI/集装箱指数07-20约3080.31、月跌仅1.33%，未出现周跌>10%的证伪信号[web:turn0search0][web:turn0search5][web:turn0search12]。拥堵端从“新加坡低拥挤窗口0.8天”上修到接近阈值：GoComet样本显示新加坡船舶等待约2天，触及但未明显超过>2.0天触发线，且需与运价急跌同时成立才证伪[web:turn0search10]。地缘端反而CONTRADICTS“6-19复航后线性回吐”：07-13霍尔木兹通行许可暂停/美方封锁伊朗航运，使绕行与保险溢价重新进入价格，亦对th_T18“能源地缘溢价出清”构成阶段性反证[web:turn0news34][web:turn0news35]。

2. 关键证据

07-16 Drewry WCI周跌2%至4547美元/40ft，涨势开始降温。[web:turn0search0]
07-16 WCI月涨14.56%、同比高74.75%，高位仍未失守。[web:turn0search5]
07-20集装箱指数3080.31，月跌1.33%，未见SCFI式崩跌。[web:turn0search12]

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KB 刷新追踪: 工业机械

Owner: industrials-analyst · Thesis v8 · Ticks: 6 · Materials: 68 · Deadline: 7d left · project_id: rp_aec432dbbc144146

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 工业机械 is stale/weak/contested (need=0.835, 2 live facts, 9d stale, 36 mentions, open conflict). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when 工业机械's chain facts are refreshed (re-verified within the last 14 days) and any open contradiction is reconciled.

KB 刷新追踪: 工业机械

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 工业机械 is stale/weak/contested (need=0.835, 2 live facts, 9d stale, 36 mentions, open conflict). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when 工业机械's chain facts are refreshed (re-verified within the last 14 days) and any open contradiction is reconciled.

1. 当前判断

本轮刷新的核心修订是：工业机械已不再是一个可整体持有的板块，而应拆成"已验证腿"与"题材腿"分开定价——超配燃气轮机与工程机械、低配人形零部件，直到后者毛利率与出货转化通过验证 evidence ref。三条腿的因子暴露必须分开承销：工程机械=业绩修正+质量，燃气轮机=质量+业绩修正+可持续动量，人形零部件=仅脆弱动量、通不过质量筛 evidence ref。这直接改写 KB 中工业机械::policy_profit_driver 的"政策+盈利双轮"表述：驱动源已从国内基建重锚到出口与设备更新，四条渠道净支持两条已验证腿、净负面于无差别工业 beta，故模型应维持而非整体降风险 evidence ref。降风险由分级状态机而非主观判断触发：45/30/10/15 为工程机械优先减仓的警戒态，40/25/5/30 须待汇率与经营数据共同破位方可启用 evidence refevidence ref。

2. 关键证据

配置逻辑从"题材空间"切向"订单/利润可验证"：超配燃机+工程机械，低配人形零部件 evidence ref
工程机械腿驱动重锚：从国内基建改挂出口与设备更新，四渠道净负面于无差别工业 beta evidence ref

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Map ship-leasing stress to parent-bank capital sensitivity

Owner: financials-analyst · Thesis v12 · Ticks: 7 · Materials: 65 · Deadline: 6d left · project_id: rp_a30786de867f4e59

Kickoff: Track which parent banks are first exposed when shipping-leasing spreads, LTV deterioration, provisions, RWA inflation, and single-entity capital deduction rules hit leasing subsidiaries. This matters because the analyst's systemic-risk call depends on named parent-bank capital and provision breaches, not sector-level stress rhetoric.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when an entity-level lessor-to-parent-bank map identifies named parent banks that breach defined LTV, provision, RWA, or CAR sensitivity thresholds under the shipping-leasing stress case, or shows that no named parent breaches those thresholds.

Working hypothesis: Shipping-leasing stress will be material for specific parent banks through provisions, RWA inflation, and standalone capital deduction effects, but will not justify a systemic banking-risk call without named parent-bank breaches.

Map ship-leasing stress to parent-bank capital sensitivity

Kickoff: Track which parent banks are first exposed when shipping-leasing spreads, LTV deterioration, provisions, RWA inflation, and single-entity capital deduction rules hit leasing subsidiaries. This matters because the analyst's systemic-risk call depends on named parent-bank capital and provision breaches, not sector-level stress rhetoric.

1. 当前判断

当前实体层面仍只有交通银行构成可量化首发母行敏感点：绿色船交付延误和20%-30%船值折价会通过LTV、拨备与RWA重估压低并表CET1约18.96bp，但尚未显示CAR breach。evidence ref/research note]evidence ref/research note] 更硬的路径是金租增资在母

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Test the Warsh Fed restrictive-patience regime

Owner: chief-economist · Thesis v12 · Ticks: 7 · Materials: 98 · Deadline: 6d left · project_id: rp_6037c472cb164d04

Kickoff: Track whether the post-June 2026 Fed reaction function has shifted from default easing toward a hawkish hold with a higher bar for cuts and only conditional hike risk. This matters because the analyst's current macro stance depends on front-end rates, duration exposure, USD strength, and broad beta not pricing premature easing.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when the first post-June 2026 Fed policy move occurs, or when two consecutive core PCE and labor-market releases make either a cut or a hike the clear base case rather than restrictive patience.

Working hypothesis: The Fed will keep policy restrictive for longer: near-term cuts are blocked by resilient demand/labor data and elevated core PCE, while renewed hikes remain a tail risk unless inflation expectations or realized inflation re-accelerate.

Test the Warsh Fed restrictive-patience regime

Kickoff: Track whether the post-June 2026 Fed reaction function has shifted from default easing toward a hawkish hold with a higher bar for cuts and only conditional hike risk. This matters because the analyst's current macro stance depends on front-end rates, duration exposure, USD strength, and broad beta not pricing premature easing.

1. 当前判断

Warsh Fed 的反应函数仍是“限制性耐心”：油价回落和6月通胀放缓只是压低立即加息概率，未满足核心PCE连续降温加就业走弱的降息门槛，继续支持 th_T04 的2026年不降息基准 [thesis:th_T04]evidence ref。新增材料把需求韧性解释为能源价格下跌带来的一次性真实消费释放，而核心PCE再通胀来自AI硬件与关税传导，因此近端利率应维持偏硬、久期只保留尾部凸性 evidence ref[

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Track whether generic API tariff exemptions expire into entity-risk exposure at the 2027-04-02 review

Owner: policy-analyst · Thesis v14 · Ticks: 7 · Materials: 55 · Deadline: 5d left · project_id: rp_45294abaa5c94041

Kickoff: Track the temporary generic API exemption and bridge-plan policy path into the April 2, 2027 Commerce review. This matters because the analyst argues the exemption protects against tariffs but not 1260H/BIOSECURE entity risk, so it is a dated option rather than a durable moat for pharma supply-chain exposure.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when the April 2, 2027 Commerce review either extends or converts the exemption into a durable structural protection that also addresses entity-risk exposure, or lets it lapse/narrows it so API and pharma suppliers remain exposed to tariffs, 1260H, and BIOSECURE constraints.

Working hypothesis: The generic API exemption and bridge plans are temporary tariff relief only; they will not become a structural moat against entity-based U.S. pharma supply-chain restrictions.

Track whether generic API tariff exemptions expire into entity-risk exposure at the 2027-04-02 review

Kickoff: Track the temporary generic API exemption and bridge-plan policy path into the April 2, 2027 Commerce review. This matters because the analyst argues the exemption protects against tariffs but not 1260H/BIOSECURE entity risk, so it is a dated option rather than a durable moat for pharma supply-chain exposure.

Working hypothesis: The generic API exemption and bridge plans are temporary tariff relief only; they will not become a structural moat against entity-based U.S. pharma supply-chain restrictions.

1. 当前判断

工作假设第三次未被削弱：generic API exemption 与 bridge plan 仍只是通往 2027-04-02 Commerce review 的关税缓冲，与 1260H/BIOSECURE 的实体准入条款分属两套法源，前者到期不自动延展为后者的豁免evidence ref[handoff evidence

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KB 刷新追踪: 必选消费

Owner: chief-strategist · Thesis v14 · Ticks: 7 · Materials: 146 · Deadline: 5d left · project_id: rp_e9ec3e2aa36c4340

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 必选消费 is stale/weak/contested (need=1.027, 2 live facts, 23d stale, 24 mentions, open conflict). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when 必选消费's chain facts are refreshed (re-verified within the last 14 days) and any open contradiction is reconciled.

KB 刷新追踪: 必选消费

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 必选消费 is stale/weak/contested (need=1.027, 2 live facts, 23d stale, 24 mentions, open conflict). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when 必选消费's chain facts are refreshed (re-verified within the last 14 days) and any open contradiction is reconciled.

1. 当前判断

截至2026-07-19，必选消费25%目标保留，但定义应是“低Beta/高股息底仓 + 即时零售/B端链主 + 传统拥挤腿限额”，不是整篮子防御超配evidence ref[thesis:th_p_d4253438]。开放冲突调和为：结构性拥挤真实存在于白酒/传统防御叙事与红利尾部，但食品融资偿还、低Beta筛选和一季度通过名单说明精选底仓未形成全板块拥挤[thesis:th_T13]evidence ref。白酒仍等待批价连续两周站稳1600、库存下降、应收改善三闸门；未触发前，增量配置继续压向即时零售、B端供应链链主和分红覆盖更稳的基础食品[thesis:th_T13]。

2. 关键证据

必选消费配置目标25%，但传统腿有结构性拥挤瓶颈evidence ref
食品板块融资处于偿还状态，低Beta高股息龙头未见拥挤[thesis:th_p_d4253438]
618全网GMV仅+4.0%，即时零售+112.3%贡献92.5%增量[thesis:th_T13]
山西汾酒2026Q1营收-9.68%、净利-19.03%，白酒弱势未修复[thesis:th_T13]
2026-07-19一季度渠道库存、应收与分红覆盖支持四只通过标的evidence ref
餐饮若续弱应削腿迁股息桶，诚实组合β约0.33-0.35evidence ref

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AI SPV debt-chain break risk

Owner: credit-analyst · Thesis v2 · Ticks: 2 · Materials: 64 · Deadline: 8d left · project_id: rp_df25b8d7e8424c14

Kickoff: Track whether AI infrastructure SPVs and GPU-backed financings can absorb a capex reset, grid interconnection delays, utilization shortfalls, GPU collateral depreciation, and refinancing pressure. This matters because the analyst's core distinction is between contained asset-level loss and a broader IT/ABS/bank funding-chain break, especially where Oracle-style lease commitments and Blackwell collateral are involved.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when bank, ABS, lease, or sponsor evidence shows either (a) DSCR, LTV, margin-call, or refinancing covenants are breached under a 20-30% revenue/capex stress or 12-24 month grid-delay stress, causing realized restructuring/default or forced sponsor support, or (b) the same debt chain remains covenant-compliant/refinanceable through the stress without hidden recourse beyond documented support.

Working hypothesis: The decisive risk is not headline GPU collateral quality but simultaneous DSCR/refi/LTV convergence; IG take-or-pay contracts, account control, and maintenance covenants keep recoveries high, while cov-lite hardware-only structures become systemic transmission channels.

AI SPV debt-chain break risk

Kickoff: Track whether AI infrastructure SPVs and GPU-backed financings can absorb a capex reset, grid interconnection delays, utilization shortfalls, GPU collateral depreciation, and refinancing pressure. This matters because the analyst's core distinction is between contained asset-level loss and a broader IT/ABS/bank funding-chain break, especially where Oracle-style lease commitments and Blackwell collateral are involved.

[…thesis truncated, 7383 more chars in /research archive]

Recently closed projects (lessons surface)

2026-07-20 · KB 刷新追踪: 重型电气设备

Owner: tmt-analyst · Final thesis v16 · Ticks: 10 · project_id: rp_0c705e64bba94247

KB 刷新追踪: 重型电气设备 — Final Report

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 重型电气设备 is stale/weak/contested (need=0.83, 1 live facts, 13d stale, 12 mentions, open conflict). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when 重型电气设备's chain facts are refreshed (re-verified within the last 14 days) and any open contradiction is reconciled.

Owner: tmt-analyst Duration: 2026-07-06 → 2026-07-20 Ticks: 10 · Accepted materials: 109 · Stop reason: deadline_reached

Living thesis at close

KB 刷新追踪: 重型电气设备

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 重型电气设备 is stale/weak/contested (need=0.83, 1 live facts, 13d stale, 12 mentions, open conflict). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution cr

2026-07-17 · KB 刷新追踪: 合成氨

Owner: materials-analyst · Final thesis v5 · Ticks: 9 · project_id: rp_172cba2570284170

KB 刷新追踪: 合成氨 — Final Report

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 合成氨 is stale/weak/contested (need=0.93, 1 live facts, 22d stale, 7 mentions, open conflict). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when 合成氨's chain facts are refreshed (re-verified within the last 14 days) and any open contradiction is reconciled.

Owner: materials-analyst Duration: 2026-07-03 → 2026-07-17 Ticks: 9 · Accepted materials: 4 · Stop reason: deadline_reached

Living thesis at close

KB 刷新追踪: 合成氨

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 合成氨 is stale/weak/contested (need=0.93, 1 live facts, 22d stale, 7 mentions, open conflict). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criterion (the s

2026-07-17 · KB 刷新追踪: 注射器

Owner: healthcare-analyst · Final thesis v19 · Ticks: 12 · project_id: rp_c986b15cf6764d76

KB 刷新追踪: 注射器 — Final Report

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 注射器 is stale/weak/contested (need=0.796, 1 live facts, 12d stale, 9 mentions, open conflict). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when 注射器's chain facts are refreshed (re-verified within the last 14 days) and any open contradiction is reconciled.

Owner: healthcare-analyst Duration: 2026-07-03 → 2026-07-17 Ticks: 12 · Accepted materials: 67 · Stop reason: deadline_reached

Living thesis at close

KB 刷新追踪: 注射器

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 注射器 is stale/weak/contested (need=0.796, 1 live facts, 12d stale, 9 mentions, open conflict). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criterion (

2026-07-13 · KB 刷新追踪: 通信设备

Owner: utilities-analyst · Final thesis v15 · Ticks: 10 · project_id: rp_045dc6a790f6438b

KB 刷新追踪: 通信设备 — Final Report

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 通信设备 is stale/weak/contested (need=0.778, 1 live facts, 8d stale, 17 mentions, open conflict). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when 通信设备's chain facts are refreshed (re-verified within the last 14 days) and any open contradiction is reconciled.

Owner: utilities-analyst Duration: 2026-06-29 → 2026-07-13 Ticks: 10 · Accepted materials: 66 · Stop reason: deadline_reached

Living thesis at close

KB 刷新追踪: 通信设备

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 通信设备 is stale/weak/contested (need=0.778, 1 live facts, 8d stale, 17 mentions, open conflict). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criteri

2026-07-13 · KB 刷新追踪: 纺织服装产业链

Owner: consumer-analyst · Final thesis v17 · Ticks: 11 · project_id: rp_e21954f4f82f43df

KB 刷新追踪: 纺织服装产业链 — Final Report

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 纺织服装产业链 is stale/weak/contested (need=0.875, 1 live facts, 22d stale, 29 mentions). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when 纺织服装产业链's chain facts are refreshed (re-verified within the last 14 days) and any open contradiction is reconciled.

Owner: consumer-analyst Duration: 2026-06-29 → 2026-07-13 Ticks: 11 · Accepted materials: 51 · Stop reason: deadline_reached

Living thesis at close

KB 刷新追踪: 纺织服装产业链

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 纺织服装产业链 is stale/weak/contested (need=0.875, 1 live facts, 22d stale, 29 mentions). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criterion (the stop c