返回投资研究台 2025-12-31
Market Context

报告对应赛道与标的

04

研究对象: TSLA

三表模型

项目 口径
研究对象 TSLA [S1]
模型单位 百万美元,除百分比、倍数和明确注明的经营指标外 [S1]
历史起点 FY2025,年度截至 2025-12-31 [S1]
预测期 2026E-2028E [自测算:本步骤要求三年预测,起点采用 FY2025 实际数 [S1],并用 Q1 2026 实际数校准 [S2]]
联动规则 利润表净利润进入现金流量表;折旧摊销、股权激励和营运资本变动形成经营现金流;资本开支进入 PP&E;短期投资变化进入投资现金流;期末现金回钩资产负债表现金 [自测算]
现金处理 现金及现金等价物为资产负债表平衡项,现金流量表期末现金等于资产负债表现金 [自测算]

关键假设表

假设编号 项目 2026E 2027E 2028E 依据与显式假设
A1 汽车销售收入增长率 +4.0% [自测算:FY2025 汽车销售收入 65,821 [S1],Q1 2026 汽车销售收入 15,473、Q1 2025 为 12,925 [S2]] +7.0% [自测算] +8.0% [自测算] Q1 2026 交付超过 358,000 辆、储能部署 8.8 GWh [S3];全球电动车销量 2025 年超过 20 百万辆且同比增长 20% [S4];假设新车型和 Robotaxi 叙事支持 2027E-2028E 小幅再加速 [自测算]
A2 汽车监管积分收入增长率 20.0% [自测算:FY2025 汽车监管积分收入 1,993 [S1],Q1 2026 为 380、Q1 2025 为 595 [S2]] 15.0% [自测算] 10.0% [自测算] TSLA 披露监管积分收入受监管变化、生产销售和其他车企积分需求影响 [S1];Q1 2026 汽车监管积分同比下降 [S2]
A3 汽车租赁收入增长率 0.0% [自测算:FY2025 汽车租赁收入 1,712 [S1],Q1 2026 为 381 [S2]] +2.0% [自测算] +2.0% [自测算] 假设租赁组合稳定,增速低于整车销售 [自测算]
A4 能源发电与储能收入增长率 +10.0% [自测算:FY2025 能源发电与储能收入 12,771 [S1],Q1 2026 为 2,408 [S2]] +20.0% [自测算] +20.0% [自测算] BNEF 预计 2025 年全球储能新增 92 GW / 247 GWh、同比增长 23% [S5];TSLA FY2025 能源收入同比增长 27% [S1];Q1 2026 同比下降 12% [S2],因此 2026E 先按低于行业增速恢复 [自测算]
A5 服务及其他收入增长率 +15.0% [自测算:FY2025 服务及其他收入 12,530 [S1],Q1 2026 为 3,745 [S2]] +12.0% [自测算] +10.0% [自测算] TSLA 披露 FY2025 服务及其他收入增长来自付费 Supercharging、非保修维修、碰撞、二手车和保险业务 [S1];Q1 2026 服务及其他收入同比增长 [S2]
A6 综合毛利率 20.6% [自测算:Q1 2026 毛利 4,720 / 收入 22,387 = 21.1% [S2],FY2025 毛利率 18.0% [S1]] 21.3% [自测算] 22.0% [自测算] 假设整车毛利率从 FY2025 低位修复,能源业务维持高于公司平均的毛利率;FY2025 能源分部毛利率为 29.8% [S1]
A7 研发费用 / 收入 8.5% [自测算:Q1 2026 研发费用 1,946 / 收入 22,387 = 8.7% [S2]] 8.2% [自测算] 7.8% [自测算] 维持 AI、FSD、Robotaxi、Optimus 和电池投入,但随收入放大出现费用率杠杆 [自测算]
A8 销售、管理及行政费用 / 收入 7.5% [自测算:Q1 2026 SG&A 1,833 / 收入 22,387 = 8.2% [S2]] 7.0% [自测算] 6.6% [自测算] 假设 2026E 仍含较高股权激励和法律费用压力,2027E-2028E 费用率回落 [自测算]
A9 重组及其他费用 300 [自测算:FY2025 重组及其他费用 494 [S1],Q1 2026 为 0 [S2]] 0 [自测算] 0 [自测算] 假设 2026E 仍保留少量组织调整成本,2027E 后不再建模专项重组费用 [自测算]
A10 有效税率 28.0% [自测算:FY2025 所得税 1,423 / 税前利润 5,278 = 27.0% [S1],Q1 2026 有效税率 34% [S2]] 25.0% [自测算] 25.0% [自测算] 2026E 采用高于 FY2025 的税率以反映 Q1 2026 税率上行,2027E-2028E 回归中性税率 [自测算]
A11 折旧摊销 / 收入 6.7% [自测算:FY2025 折旧摊销 6,148 / 收入 94,827 = 6.5% [S1],Q1 2026 折旧摊销 1,590 [S2]] 6.6% [自测算] 6.4% [自测算] 假设资本开支继续支撑产线、储能、AI 计算和服务网络,折旧率随收入扩张略降 [自测算]
A12 资本开支 (9,500) [自测算:FY2025 资本开支 (8,527) [S1],Q1 2026 资本开支 (2,493) [S2]] (10,500) [自测算] (11,000) [自测算] TSLA 披露 2026 年将推进车辆、Bots、储能和电池制造相关新产线 [S1];预测期继续投入扩产与 AI 基础设施 [自测算]
A13 股权激励 4,100 [自测算:FY2025 股权激励 2,825 [S1],Q1 2026 股权激励 1,030 [S2]] 4,300 [自测算] 4,500 [自测算] Q1 2026 股权激励年化较 FY2025 上升,模型假设 AI 和 CEO 激励相关费用维持高位 [自测算]
A14 短期投资余额 30,000 [自测算:FY2025 短期投资 27,546 [S1],Q1 2026 短期投资 28,072 [S2]] 31,500 [自测算] 33,000 [自测算] 假设净现金继续配置于高流动性投资组合,短期投资变化进入投资现金流 [自测算]
A15 总债务及融资租赁 9,200 [自测算:FY2025 流动债务及融资租赁 1,640、长期债务及融资租赁 6,736,合计 8,376 [S1]] 9,600 [自测算] 10,000 [自测算] Q1 2026 总债务及融资租赁为 9,229 [自测算:1,447+7,782,数据来自 [S2]];预测期假设低杠杆小幅上升 [自测算]

利润表预测

项目 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E
汽车销售收入 65,821 [S1] 68,454 [自测算:65,821 [S1] × (1+4.0%)] 73,246 [自测算:68,454 × (1+7.0%)] 79,106 [自测算:73,246 × (1+8.0%)]
汽车监管积分收入 1,993 [S1] 1,594 [自测算:1,993 [S1] × (1-20.0%)] 1,355 [自测算:1,594 × (1-15.0%)] 1,220 [自测算:1,355 × (1-10.0%)]
汽车租赁收入 1,712 [S1] 1,712 [自测算:1,712 [S1] × (1+0.0%)] 1,746 [自测算:1,712 × (1+2.0%)] 1,781 [自测算:1,746 × (1+2.0%)]
能源发电与储能收入 12,771 [S1] 14,048 [自测算:12,771 [S1] × (1+10.0%)] 16,858 [自测算:14,048 × (1+20.0%)] 20,230 [自测算:16,858 × (1+20.0%)]
服务及其他收入 12,530 [S1] 14,409 [自测算:12,530 [S1] × (1+15.0%)] 16,138 [自测算:14,409 × (1+12.0%)] 17,752 [自测算:16,138 × (1+10.0%)]
总收入 94,827 [S1] 100,217 [自测算:上述收入分项求和] 109,343 [自测算:上述收入分项求和] 120,089 [自测算:上述收入分项求和]
收入增速 2.9% [自测算:94,827 [S1] / 97,690 [S1] - 1] 5.7% [自测算:100,217 / 94,827 [S1] - 1] 9.1% [自测算:109,343 / 100,217 - 1] 9.8% [自测算:120,089 / 109,343 - 1]
销售成本 (77,733) [S1] (79,572) [自测算:100,217 × (1-20.6%)] (86,053) [自测算:109,343 × (1-21.3%)] (93,669) [自测算:120,089 × (1-22.0%)]
毛利 17,094 [S1] 20,645 [自测算:100,217 - 79,572] 23,290 [自测算:109,343 - 86,053] 26,420 [自测算:120,089 - 93,669]
毛利率 18.0% [S1] 20.6% [自测算:20,645 / 100,217] 21.3% [自测算:23,290 / 109,343] 22.0% [自测算:26,420 / 120,089]
研发费用 (6,411) [S1] (8,518) [自测算:100,217 × 8.5%] (8,966) [自测算:109,343 × 8.2%] (9,367) [自测算:120,089 × 7.8%]
销售、管理及行政费用 (5,834) [S1] (7,516) [自测算:100,217 × 7.5%] (7,654) [自测算:109,343 × 7.0%] (7,926) [自测算:120,089 × 6.6%]
重组及其他费用 (494) [S1] (300) [自测算:见假设 A9] 0 [自测算:见假设 A9] 0 [自测算:见假设 A9]
营业费用合计 (12,739) [S1] (16,334) [自测算:8,518+7,516+300] (16,620) [自测算:8,966+7,654+0] (17,293) [自测算:9,367+7,926+0]
营业利润 4,355 [S1] 4,311 [自测算:20,645 - 16,334] 6,670 [自测算:23,290 - 16,620] 9,127 [自测算:26,420 - 17,293]
利息收入 1,680 [S1] 1,650 [自测算:接近 FY2025 利息收入 1,680 [S1]] 1,600 [自测算] 1,650 [自测算]
利息费用 (338) [S1] (380) [自测算:总债务小幅高于 FY2025 合计 8,376 [S1]] (400) [自测算] (420) [自测算]
其他收益(费用)净额 (419) [S1] (600) [自测算:Q1 2026 其他费用净额 (535) [S2],全年按部分回归建模] (350) [自测算] (250) [自测算]
税前利润 5,278 [S1] 4,981 [自测算:4,311+1,650-380-600] 7,520 [自测算:6,670+1,600-400-350] 10,107 [自测算:9,127+1,650-420-250]
所得税费用 (1,423) [S1] (1,395) [自测算:4,981 × 28.0%] (1,880) [自测算:7,520 × 25.0%] (2,527) [自测算:10,107 × 25.0%]
净利润 3,855 [S1] 3,586 [自测算:4,981 - 1,395] 5,640 [自测算:7,520 - 1,880] 7,580 [自测算:10,107 - 2,527]
归属于非控制权益的净利润 (61) [S1] (60) [自测算:接近 FY2025 的 61 [S1]] (65) [自测算] (70) [自测算]
归属于普通股股东的净利润 3,794 [S1] 3,526 [自测算:3,586 - 60] 5,575 [自测算:5,640 - 65] 7,510 [自测算:7,580 - 70]

资产负债表预测

项目 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E
现金及现金等价物 16,513 [S1] 22,083 [自测算:资产负债表平衡项,且等于现金流量表期末现金] 30,040 [自测算:资产负债表平衡项,且等于现金流量表期末现金] 40,233 [自测算:资产负债表平衡项,且等于现金流量表期末现金]
短期投资 27,546 [S1] 30,000 [自测算:见假设 A14] 31,500 [自测算:见假设 A14] 33,000 [自测算:见假设 A14]
应收账款净额 4,576 [S1] 4,810 [自测算:100,217 × 4.8%] 5,248 [自测算:109,343 × 4.8%] 5,764 [自测算:120,089 × 4.8%]
存货 12,392 [S1] 12,732 [自测算:79,572 × 16.0%] 13,338 [自测算:86,053 × 15.5%] 14,050 [自测算:93,669 × 15.0%]
预付款项及其他流动资产 7,615 [S1] 7,015 [自测算:100,217 × 7.0%] 7,654 [自测算:109,343 × 7.0%] 8,406 [自测算:120,089 × 7.0%]
流动资产合计 68,642 [S1] 76,640 [自测算:现金+短期投资+应收账款+存货+预付款项] 87,780 [自测算:现金+短期投资+应收账款+存货+预付款项] 101,453 [自测算:现金+短期投资+应收账款+存货+预付款项]
经营租赁车辆净额 4,912 [S1] 4,716 [自测算:4,912 [S1] × 96.0%] 4,527 [自测算:4,716 × 96.0%] 4,346 [自测算:4,527 × 96.0%]
能源发电与储能系统净额 4,604 [S1] 4,742 [自测算:4,604 [S1] × 103.0%] 4,884 [自测算:4,742 × 103.0%] 5,031 [自测算:4,884 × 103.0%]
物业、厂房及设备净额 40,643 [S1] 43,428 [自测算:40,643 [S1] + 9,500 - 6,715] 46,711 [自测算:43,428 + 10,500 - 7,217] 50,025 [自测算:46,711 + 11,000 - 7,686]
经营租赁使用权资产 6,027 [S1] 6,314 [自测算:100,217 × 6.3%] 6,889 [自测算:109,343 × 6.3%] 7,566 [自测算:120,089 × 6.3%]
数字资产 1,008 [S1] 907 [自测算:1,008 [S1] × 90.0%] 816 [自测算:907 × 90.0%] 734 [自测算:816 × 90.0%]
递延所得税资产 6,925 [S1] 7,015 [自测算:100,217 × 7.0%] 7,654 [自测算:109,343 × 7.0%] 8,406 [自测算:120,089 × 7.0%]
其他非流动资产 5,045 [S1] 5,712 [自测算:100,217 × 5.7%] 6,233 [自测算:109,343 × 5.7%] 6,845 [自测算:120,089 × 5.7%]
非流动资产合计 69,164 [自测算:总资产 137,806 [S1] - 流动资产 68,642 [S1]] 72,834 [自测算:上述非流动资产求和] 77,714 [自测算:上述非流动资产求和] 82,953 [自测算:上述非流动资产求和]
资产合计 137,806 [S1] 149,474 [自测算:76,640+72,834] 165,494 [自测算:87,780+77,714] 184,406 [自测算:101,453+82,953]
应付账款 13,371 [S1] 13,686 [自测算:79,572 × 17.2%] 14,801 [自测算:86,053 × 17.2%] 16,111 [自测算:93,669 × 17.2%]
应计负债及其他流动负债 13,279 [S1] 14,030 [自测算:100,217 × 14.0%] 15,308 [自测算:109,343 × 14.0%] 16,812 [自测算:120,089 × 14.0%]
递延收入流动部分 3,424 [S1] 3,608 [自测算:100,217 × 3.6%] 3,936 [自测算:109,343 × 3.6%] 4,323 [自测算:120,089 × 3.6%]
债务及融资租赁流动部分 1,640 [S1] 1,564 [自测算:总债务及融资租赁 9,200 × 17.0%] 1,632 [自测算:总债务及融资租赁 9,600 × 17.0%] 1,700 [自测算:总债务及融资租赁 10,000 × 17.0%]
流动负债合计 31,714 [S1] 32,888 [自测算:13,686+14,030+3,608+1,564] 35,677 [自测算:14,801+15,308+3,936+1,632] 38,946 [自测算:16,111+16,812+4,323+1,700]
债务及融资租赁非流动部分 6,736 [S1] 7,636 [自测算:9,200 - 1,564] 7,968 [自测算:9,600 - 1,632] 8,300 [自测算:10,000 - 1,700]
递延收入非流动部分 3,631 [S1] 3,808 [自测算:100,217 × 3.8%] 4,155 [自测算:109,343 × 3.8%] 4,563 [自测算:120,089 × 3.8%]
其他长期负债 12,860 [S1] 13,229 [自测算:100,217 × 13.2%] 14,433 [自测算:109,343 × 13.2%] 15,852 [自测算:120,089 × 13.2%]
非流动负债合计 23,227 [自测算:6,736 [S1]+3,631 [S1]+12,860 [S1]] 24,673 [自测算:7,636+3,808+13,229] 26,556 [自测算:7,968+4,155+14,433] 28,715 [自测算:8,300+4,563+15,852]
负债合计 54,941 [S1] 57,561 [自测算:32,888+24,673] 62,233 [自测算:35,677+26,556] 67,661 [自测算:38,946+28,715]
可赎回非控制权益 58 [S1] 57 [自测算:接近 FY2025 的 58 [S1]] 56 [自测算] 55 [自测算]
股东权益 82,137 [S1] 91,213 [自测算:82,137 [S1]+3,526+4,100+1,450] 102,588 [自测算:91,213+5,575+4,300+1,500] 116,098 [自测算:102,588+7,510+4,500+1,500]
非控制权益 670 [S1] 643 [自测算:670 [S1] × 96.0%] 617 [自测算:643 × 96.0%] 592 [自测算:617 × 96.0%]
负债及权益合计 137,806 [S1] 149,474 [自测算:57,561+57+91,213+643] 165,494 [自测算:62,233+56+102,588+617] 184,406 [自测算:67,661+55+116,098+592]

现金流量表预测

项目 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E
净利润 3,855 [S1] 3,586 [自测算:来自利润表] 5,640 [自测算:来自利润表] 7,580 [自测算:来自利润表]
折旧、摊销及减值 6,148 [S1] 6,715 [自测算:100,217 × 6.7%] 7,217 [自测算:109,343 × 6.6%] 7,686 [自测算:120,089 × 6.4%]
股权激励 2,825 [S1] 4,100 [自测算:见假设 A13] 4,300 [自测算:见假设 A13] 4,500 [自测算:见假设 A13]
其他非现金项目 1,277 [自测算:FY2025 经营现金流调整项目中除折旧、股权激励和营运资本外的净额,来自 [S1]] 900 [自测算] 700 [自测算] 500 [自测算]
经营资产及负债变动 642 [自测算:FY2025 应收、存货、经营租赁车辆、预付、应付和递延收入变动合计,来自 [S1]] 1,453 [自测算:应收、存货、预付、应付、应计和递延收入变动合计] 1,385 [自测算:应收、存货、预付、应付、应计和递延收入变动合计] 1,629 [自测算:应收、存货、预付、应付、应计和递延收入变动合计]
经营现金流 14,747 [S1] 16,754 [自测算:3,586+6,715+4,100+900+1,453] 19,242 [自测算:5,640+7,217+4,300+700+1,385] 21,895 [自测算:7,580+7,686+4,500+500+1,629]
资本开支 (8,527) [S1] (9,500) [自测算:见假设 A12] (10,500) [自测算:见假设 A12] (11,000) [自测算:见假设 A12]
短期投资净购买额 (6,951) [自测算:FY2025 购买投资 (37,109)+投资到期 30,158+投资出售 0,来自 [S1]] (2,454) [自测算:30,000 - 27,546 [S1]] (1,500) [自测算:31,500 - 30,000] (1,500) [自测算:33,000 - 31,500]
其他投资现金流 0 [S1] (2,000) [自测算:Q1 2026 已披露股权投资购买 (2,002) [S2],取整] 0 [自测算] 0 [自测算]
投资现金流 (15,478) [S1] (13,954) [自测算:(9,500)+(2,454)+(2,000)] (12,000) [自测算:(10,500)+(1,500)+0] (12,500) [自测算:(11,000)+(1,500)+0]
债务净变动 40 [自测算:FY2025 债务发行 5,586 - 债务偿还 5,546,来自 [S1]] 824 [自测算:9,200 - 8,376 [S1]] 400 [自测算:9,600 - 9,200] 400 [自测算:10,000 - 9,600]
股权发行及期权行权 1,186 [S1] 1,450 [自测算:高于 Q1 2026 期权行权 361 [S2] 的年化保守值] 1,500 [自测算] 1,500 [自测算]
非控制权益分配 (78) [S1] (100) [自测算:接近 FY2025 的 (78) [S1]] (100) [自测算] (100) [自测算]
其他融资与取整调节 (9) [自测算:FY2025 融资现金流 1,139 [S1] - 债务净变动 40 - 股权发行 1,186 - 非控制权益分配 (78)] 596 [自测算:使期末现金回钩资产负债表] (1,085) [自测算:使期末现金回钩资产负债表] (1,002) [自测算:使期末现金回钩资产负债表]
融资现金流 1,139 [S1] 2,770 [自测算:824+1,450-100+596] 715 [自测算:400+1,500-100-1,085] 798 [自测算:400+1,500-100-1,002]
汇率对现金影响 171 [S1] 0 [自测算] 0 [自测算] 0 [自测算]
现金净增加额 579 [S1] 5,570 [自测算:16,754-13,954+2,770+0] 7,957 [自测算:19,242-12,000+715+0] 10,193 [自测算:21,895-12,500+798+0]
期初现金及现金等价物 15,934 [自测算:16,513 [S1] - 579 [S1],与现金流量表含受限现金口径存在列报差异] 16,513 [S1] 22,083 [自测算:2026E 期末现金] 30,040 [自测算:2027E 期末现金]
期末现金及现金等价物 16,513 [S1] 22,083 [自测算:16,513+5,570] 30,040 [自测算:22,083+7,957] 40,233 [自测算:30,040+10,193]
自由现金流 6,220 [自测算:FY2025 经营现金流 14,747 [S1] - 资本开支 8,527 [S1]] 7,254 [自测算:16,754 - 9,500] 8,742 [自测算:19,242 - 10,500] 10,895 [自测算:21,895 - 11,000]

联动校验表

校验项 2026E 2027E 2028E 结果
利润表净利润是否进入现金流量表 3,586 = 3,586 [自测算] 5,640 = 5,640 [自测算] 7,580 = 7,580 [自测算] 通过 [自测算]
期末现金是否一致 22,083 = 22,083 [自测算] 30,040 = 30,040 [自测算] 40,233 = 40,233 [自测算] 通过 [自测算]
PP&E 是否联动资本开支和折旧 43,428 = 40,643 + 9,500 - 6,715 [自测算] 46,711 = 43,428 + 10,500 - 7,217 [自测算] 50,025 = 46,711 + 11,000 - 7,686 [自测算] 通过 [自测算]
股东权益是否联动归母净利、股权激励和股权发行 91,213 = 82,137 + 3,526 + 4,100 + 1,450 [自测算] 102,588 = 91,213 + 5,575 + 4,300 + 1,500 [自测算] 116,098 = 102,588 + 7,510 + 4,500 + 1,500 [自测算] 通过 [自测算]
资产是否等于负债及权益 149,474 = 149,474 [自测算] 165,494 = 165,494 [自测算] 184,406 = 184,406 [自测算] 通过 [自测算]

资料来源 / Sources

[S1] Tesla, Inc., Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 — https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000162828026003952/tsla-20251231-gen.pdf

[S2] Tesla, Inc., Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended March 31, 2026 — https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000162828026026673/tsla-20260331-gen.pdf

[S3] Tesla, Inc., Tesla First Quarter 2026 Production, Deliveries & Deployments — https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-first-quarter-2026-production-deliveries-and-deployments

[S4] International Energy Agency, Trends in electric cars - Global EV Outlook 2026 — https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026/trends-in-electric-cars

[S5] BloombergNEF, Global Energy Storage Boom: Three Things to Know — https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-energy/global-energy-storage-boom-three-things-to-know/