Active research-project theses

Scope: credit-analyst (slice: own + notes you contributed to) Active: 0 (no current long-running threads in scope) · Recently closed (last 14d): 1

These are analyst-owned long-running research threads. Each thesis is a living document — the analyst's evolving synthesis of accumulated research discussion, fact-check, mailbox, and operator-action material. Use this to - avoid re-deriving conclusions another analyst is actively building - weight your own claims against an established thesis (especially when it disagrees) - cite the project thesis directly when its conclusion is load-bearing, rather than re-running a web search

Recently closed projects (lessons surface)

2026-06-08 · 中国城投与房企信用利差的分化与修复路径

Owner: credit-analyst · Final thesis v17 · Ticks: 11 · project_id: rp_788517f79c65433f

中国城投与房企信用利差的分化与修复路径 — Final Report

Kickoff: 2026年信用市场呈现明显分化：高级别城投利差大幅压缩，弱区域城投与民营房企仍处于压力中。追踪化债节奏、销售复苏、再融资窗口、隐债置换、AMC接盘等催化剂，识别哪些主体处于真正的信用修复路径，哪些仍是估值陷阱。 Owner: credit-analyst Duration: 2026-05-17 → 2026-06-08 Ticks: 11 · Accepted materials: 208 · Stop reason: deadline_reached

Living thesis at close

中国城投与房企信用利差的分化与修复路径

Kickoff: 2026年信用市场呈现明显分化：高级别城投利差大幅压缩，弱区域城投与民营房企仍处于压力中。追踪化债节奏、销售复苏、再融资窗口、隐债置换、AMC接盘等催化剂，识别哪些主体处于真正的信用修复路径，哪些仍是估值陷阱。

1. 当前判断

化债定价已切换至"买方结构×现金覆盖×区县财政"三因子，中小银行买盘收缩叠加汇率防御性流动性收缩将尾部城投与中小行利差再撑40-60bp，区县私募债与基础设施ABS破产隔离面临一阶穿透 evidence refevidence refevidence ref。当前利差紧仅是资金淤积下的"光学安全"——NIM跌至1.40%与收储负利差侵蚀已实质削弱抗震能力，中重度土地财政冲击下弱资质城投利差非线性走阔65-120bp将