Margin Facts

None: 两融折算率均值压力测试情景为由0.6下调至0.4 (as_of: None, type: None, source: mailbox_thread:[source-id-redacted])
None: 2950000000000 (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: Margin trading and securities lending balance shows a contradiction between 3.01 trillion and 1.42 trillion (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 10.67 (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 2.833858 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 2870000000000 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: Margin requirement was adjusted back to 100% on 2026-01-19 (as_of: 2026-01-19, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 全市场两融余额已突破3.0万亿元 (as_of: None, type: None, source: mailbox_thread:[source-id-redacted])
None: 电子/TMT两融级联启动后，可信阻断需要股市定向托底与两融处置节奏放缓的组合 (as_of: 2026-06-18, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 折算率下调压力 (as_of: None, type: None, source: mailbox_thread:[source-id-redacted])
None: concentration exceeds 3 trillion (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 与外资降仓同向共振导致去杠杆抛压 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: Disruption condition should trigger in the 2.86-2.88 trillion high-speed outflow zone (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 电子融资余额守3200亿 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: Financing beta should be reduced. (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 18.42 (as_of: 2026-06-20, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 两融强平压力被列为科创板和中证1000成长股的风险背景 (as_of: None, type: None, source: mailbox_thread:[source-id-redacted])
None: Hard disruption occurs if the market prints below 2.80 trillion within 1-2 trading days (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 3000000000000 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 第二腿两融强平级联效应 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 与 TMT 两融强平螺旋共振 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 3 (as_of: 2026-06-23, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: margin gap and deleveraging pressure (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 全A两融5日-3%则降空 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 2.8 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 两融杠杆资金未见进场，杠杆未再加 (as_of: 2026-06-19, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 86000000000 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 5%融资偿还是风险核心 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 29926.14 (as_of: None, type: None, source: mailbox_thread:[source-id-redacted])
None: 余额自3.01s万亿暴跌至1.42万亿 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: A 9.381 billion RMB gap was triggered by the 3.03 trillion RMB margin trading extreme and reduction in collateral discount rate (as_of: 2026-07-03, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 寒武纪和海光融资余额出现融资净流出 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 若电子/TMT回撤-18%后仍只有常规OMO，应继续降低融资敞口 (as_of: 2026-06-18, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 若低成交真空中触及1550点，两融与期权对冲潜在抛压约7150亿-9140亿元 (as_of: 2026-06-20, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: highly concentrated in electronics and communications (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: Cash used to absorb margin trading shocks (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 两融beta是跨季转向大型券商的驱动之一。 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
haircut_mean_stress: 两融折算率均值压力测试情景为由0.6下调至0.4 (as_of: , type: metric, source: mailbox_thread:[source-id-redacted])
margin_balance_rmb: 2950000000000 — Margin financing and securities lending balance was about RMB 2.95 trillion. (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: metric, source: evidence ref)
margin_lending_balance_contradiction: Margin trading and securities lending balance shows a contradiction between 3.01 trillion and 1.42 trillion (as_of: , type: risk, source: evidence ref)
margin_turnover_share_pct: 10.67 — Margin financing and securities lending turnover share was 10.67%. (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: metric, source: evidence ref)
may_balance_tn_rmb: 2.833858 — 两融余额5月升至2.833858万亿元。 (as_of: , type: metric, source: evidence ref)
margin_trading_support_threshold: 2870000000000 — 2.86-2.88 trillion RMB range for triple support confirmation (as_of: , type: metric, source: evidence ref)
margin_requirement_level: Margin requirement was adjusted back to 100% on 2026-01-19 (as_of: 2026-01-19, type: event, source: evidence ref)
balance_threshold_breached: 全市场两融余额已突破3.0万亿元 (as_of: , type: metric, source: mailbox_thread:[source-id-redacted])
cascade_blocker_requirement: 电子/TMT两融级联启动后，可信阻断需要股市定向托底与两融处置节奏放缓的组合 (as_of: 2026-06-18, type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
collateral_discount_rate_pressure: 折算率下调压力 (as_of: , type: risk, source: mailbox_thread:[source-id-redacted])
concentration_level: concentration exceeds 3 trillion (as_of: , type: metric, source: evidence ref)
deleveraging_resonance: 与外资降仓同向共振导致去杠杆抛压 (as_of: , type: risk, source: evidence ref)
disruption_trigger_zone: Disruption condition should trigger in the 2.86-2.88 trillion high-speed outflow zone (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
electronics_margin_floor: 电子融资余额守3200亿 (as_of: , type: risk, source: evidence ref)
financing_beta_reduction: Financing beta should be reduced. (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
financing_buy_trigger_pct: 18.42 — 融资买入占比升至约18.42%是踩踏确认信号之一 (as_of: 2026-06-20, type: metric, source: evidence ref)
forced_liquidation_pressure: 两融强平压力被列为科创板和中证1000成长股的风险背景 (as_of: , type: risk, source: mailbox_thread:[source-id-redacted])
hard_disruption_condition: Hard disruption occurs if the market prints below 2.80 trillion within 1-2 trading days (as_of: , type: event, source: evidence ref)
leverage_scale: 3000000000000 — 规模为3万亿 (as_of: , type: metric, source: evidence ref)
liquidation_cascade_risk: 第二腿两融强平级联效应 (as_of: , type: risk, source: evidence ref)
liquidation_spiral_risk: 与 TMT 两融强平螺旋共振 (as_of: , type: risk, source: evidence ref)
margin_balance_breach_event: 3 — 两融余额于 2026 06 23 首破 3.0 万亿元 (as_of: 2026-06-23, type: event, source: evidence ref)
margin_gap_and_deleveraging_pressure: margin gap and deleveraging pressure (as_of: , type: risk, source: evidence ref)
margin_lending_balance_trigger: 全A两融5日-3%则降空 (as_of: , type: risk, source: evidence ref)
margin_lending_total_limit: 2.8 — 全A两融<2.80万亿框架关闭 (as_of: , type: risk, source: evidence ref)
margin_leverage_not_entering: 两融杠杆资金未见进场，杠杆未再加 (as_of: 2026-06-19, type: trend, source: evidence ref)
margin_liquidation_risk: 86000000000 — 86 billion RMB margin trading in warning zone faces liquidation pressure if tech stocks drop 20% (as_of: , type: risk, source: evidence ref)
margin_repayment_risk_core: 5%融资偿还是风险核心 (as_of: , type: risk, source: evidence ref)
margin_trading_balance: 29926.14 — 29,926.14亿元 (as_of: , type: metric, source: mailbox_thread:[source-id-redacted])
margin_trading_balance_decline: 余额自3.01s万亿暴跌至1.42万亿 (as_of: , type: trend, source: evidence ref)
margin_trading_gap: A 9.381 billion RMB gap was triggered by the 3.03 trillion RMB margin trading extreme and reduction in collateral discount rate (as_of: 2026-07-03, type: risk, source: evidence ref)
margin_trading_net_outflow: 寒武纪和海光融资余额出现融资净流出 (as_of: , type: trend, source: evidence ref)
omo_only_action: 若电子/TMT回撤-18%后仍只有常规OMO，应继续降低融资敞口 (as_of: 2026-06-18, type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
potential_sell_pressure: 若低成交真空中触及1550点，两融与期权对冲潜在抛压约7150亿-9140亿元 (as_of: 2026-06-20, type: risk, source: evidence ref)
sector_concentration_risk: highly concentrated in electronics and communications (as_of: , type: risk, source: evidence ref)
shock_absorption_target: Cash used to absorb margin trading shocks (as_of: , type: relationship, source: evidence ref)
broker_beta_driver: 两融beta是跨季转向大型券商的驱动之一。 (as_of: , type: relationship, source: evidence ref)

A-Share Facts

None: 1500000000000 (as_of: None, type: None, source: mailbox_thread:[source-id-redacted])
None: 建议维持高股息/现金流与内需政策受益方向的防御杠杆 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: A股宽度狭窄 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 减持拥挤的类债红利，转向有盈利兑现的成长 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 股息率压至3.6-4.6% (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 30 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 微弱的股票回购体量无法有效护盘 (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 45 (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 32 (as_of: 2026-06-20, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 偏好高股息、自由现金流、电网/电力、黄金和出口链龙头 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 保留A股风险敞口但降低总beta，采用高股息防御、出口硬科技、内需政策修复的杠铃结构 (as_of: 2026-06-20, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 30 (as_of: 2026-07-01, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: The rolling tail payment timetable is translated into a concrete A-share portfolio posture featuring a four-phase glide path rather than a static portfolio. (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 实施“滞胀杠铃”配置策略 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: Barbell strategy: overweight dividend/SOE/upstream/gold/hard tech; underweight high-valuation growth. (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: barbell strategy remains operational under stable CNY (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 以高股息和国企现金流为核心防守 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: Overseas funds can capture FX gains when allocating to A-shares (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: A股市场被描述为处于高低切换背景 (as_of: None, type: None, source: mailbox_thread:[source-id-redacted])
None: 从“宽泛受益”转变为基于三重筛选后的“选择性超配” (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: moderate_overweight (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 美股科技巨头重估映射至A股市场后利好国产替代主线，建议采用硬科技加红利防御的杠铃策略组合。 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 国内政策和流动性缓冲目前不足以完全吸收外资流出、融资去杠杆及解禁供给压力 (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: A股防御姿态应延续至月末 (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 国家队ETF面临净赎回 (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 45 (as_of: 2026-07-06, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 央行受制于汇率及息差防御 (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 相对DM权益+3至+5个百分点的有节制超配 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 尚不构成A股风险预算再部署 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: risk-on breadth is narrow within A-shares (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: A股难以支撑全局性风险偏好扩张 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 采用“双引擎”杠铃策略：配置高股息国企作为防御锚，同时挖掘AI及先进制造等高质量成长Alpha (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: A-share style rotation is state-dependent and framed as a tech-plus-dividend barbell. (as_of: None, type: None, source: mailbox_thread:[source-id-redacted])
None: A-share style rotation is shifting from pure dividend defense toward a dividend-plus-growth barbell. (as_of: None, type: None, source: mailbox_thread:[source-id-redacted])
None: “红利为核、科技战术、资源精选”的杠铃结构 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 国债发行抽水市场流动性 (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: A-share allocation should not assume dollar pressure will fade quickly. (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 日元套利平仓可通过北向去杠杆、CNH离岸流动性、USD/CNY中间价与基差三条通道传导至A股。 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 监管已上调融资保证金至100% (as_of: 2026-06-23, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 不构成全市场信用踩踏的基准情形 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 仅在USD/CNH、CNH-CNY基差、CNH HIBOR与HKMA工具使用率并发恶化时才显著降风险 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: USD/CNY向7.30压力路径移动且CNH HIBOR飙升时，外资降仓与两融盘去杠杆同向共振 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: The A-share implementation of cross-asset de-risking is to reduce total beta, financing beta, and supply beta, and shift style toward a defensive barbell. (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: A-shares should not be put into full risk-off; risk should be reduced through targeted market-structure levers. (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 面临368.9B两融及35B雪球负Gamma踩踏风险 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: A股杠杆结构在100%保证金规则下韧性显著 (as_of: 2026-06-14, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 国内政策与流动性缓冲不足以吸收外资流出、融资去杠杆与解禁供给 (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: -26% to -37% (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: -14% to -20% (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: core pain point is margin trading liquidation (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: domestic margin trading deleveraging shock (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 风格切换的主要风险在于...而非两融爆仓 (as_of: 2026-06-14, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 3000000000000 (as_of: 2026-06-23, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 面临被动抛售压力 (as_of: None, type: None, source: mailbox_thread:[source-id-redacted])
None: 必须加入成本转嫁、贸易政策和汇率止损规则 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: A股仓位调整与防御性轮动应使用USD/JPY与CNH流动性熔断器作为量化触发器 (as_of: 2026-06-20, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 配置不宜全面降风险 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: facing tighter risk premium denominator (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 国内政策、国债供给与国家队减持的约束使得A股的降险防守配置姿态必须延续至6月末 (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 市场面临外资流出、融资去杠杆以及解禁供给压力的三重风险 (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 面临外资流出、两融去杠杆与解禁供给的三重压力 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: A-share 'self-controllability' should be treated as a sustainable structural overweight position (as_of: 2026-07-07, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 58922000000 (as_of: None, type: None, source: mailbox_thread:[source-id-redacted])
None: 258500000000 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: RMB 1,804.37亿 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 超配电网、电力、有色、AI基础设施和高股息SOE金融 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 针对A股进行估值压力测试 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: A股不存在宽基系统性杀估值风险，主要冲击是高碳出口链局部 (as_of: 2026-06-17, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: CSI300滚动P/E约14.9 vs 标普前瞻约22.3 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 建议维持中性偏防御配置，暂不提高权益风险预算 (as_of: 2026-06-19, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 宏观分化下一步需要转译为A股风格与行业配置观点。 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: Prefer high dividend, upstream pricing power, cost pass-through, and quality value factors within A-shares. (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 应只给中报可验证的电力证明标的溢价 (as_of: 2026-07-05, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: constitutes valuation floor for onshore equities (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
None: 面临全球“估值之墙”的压力 (as_of: None, type: None, source: evidence ref)
critical_turnover_threshold: 1500000000000 — maintaining RMB 1.5T turnover is critical for momentum (as_of: , type: metric, source: mailbox_thread:[source-id-redacted])
defensive_strategy: 建议维持高股息/现金流与内需政策受益方向的防御杠杆 (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
market_width: A股宽度狭窄 (as_of: , type: trend, source: evidence ref)
style_rotation_trend: 减持拥挤的类债红利，转向有盈利兑现的成长 (as_of: , type: trend, source: evidence ref)
dividend_yield_range: 股息率压至3.6-4.6% (as_of: , type: metric, source: evidence ref)
portfolio_target_weight_pct: 30 — 建议维持中性30%的A股配置，但倾向于出口、股息和黄金股 (as_of: , type: metric, source: evidence ref)
share_buyback_effectiveness: 微弱的股票回购体量无法有效护盘 (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
target_allocation_pct: 45 — 建议将A股配置调降至45% (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: metric, source: evidence ref)
target_exposure_pct: 32 — A股敞口暴露应维持32% (as_of: 2026-06-20, type: metric, source: evidence ref)
preferred_sector_characteristics: 偏好高股息、自由现金流、电网/电力、黄金和出口链龙头 (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
allocation_stance_3_6m: 保留A股风险敞口但降低总beta，采用高股息防御、出口硬科技、内需政策修复的杠铃结构 (as_of: 2026-06-20, type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
allocation_weight_pct: 30 — A-share allocation weight is 30.00% of the global multi-asset configuration. (as_of: 2026-07-01, type: metric, source: evidence ref)
ashare_portfolio_posture: The rolling tail payment timetable is translated into a concrete A-share portfolio posture featuring a four-phase glide path rather than a static portfolio. (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
asset_allocation_strategy: 实施“滞胀杠铃”配置策略 (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
barbell_allocation_strategy: Barbell strategy: overweight dividend/SOE/upstream/gold/hard tech; underweight high-valuation growth. (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
barbell_strategy_viability: barbell strategy remains operational under stable CNY (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
core_defense_focus: 以高股息和国企现金流为核心防守 (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
fx_gain_potential: Overseas funds can capture FX gains when allocating to A-shares (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
high_low_rotation: A股市场被描述为处于高低切换背景 (as_of: , type: trend, source: mailbox_thread:[source-id-redacted])
implementation_strategy: 从“宽泛受益”转变为基于三重筛选后的“选择性超配” (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
investment_strategy: moderate_overweight (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
investment_strategy: 美股科技巨头重估映射至A股市场后利好国产替代主线，建议采用硬科技加红利防御的杠铃策略组合。 (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
liquidity_buffer_adequacy: 国内政策和流动性缓冲目前不足以完全吸收外资流出、融资去杠杆及解禁供给压力 (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
month_end_defensive_stance: A股防御姿态应延续至月末 (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
national_team_etf_flows: 国家队ETF面临净赎回 (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
net_stock_risk_exposure: 45 — 持约45单位净股票风险 (as_of: 2026-07-06, type: metric, source: evidence ref)
pboc_policy_constraints: 央行受制于汇率及息差防御 (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
relative_overweight_vs_dm: 相对DM权益+3至+5个百分点的有节制超配 (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
risk_budget_redeployment_status: 尚不构成A股风险预算再部署 (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
risk_on_breadth: risk-on breadth is narrow within A-shares (as_of: , type: risk, source: evidence ref)
risk_preference_expansion_difficulty: A股难以支撑全局性风险偏好扩张 (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
strategy_recommendation: 采用“双引擎”杠铃策略：配置高股息国企作为防御锚，同时挖掘AI及先进制造等高质量成长Alpha (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
style_rotation: A-share style rotation is state-dependent and framed as a tech-plus-dividend barbell. (as_of: , type: opinion, source: mailbox_thread:[source-id-redacted])
style_rotation: A-share style rotation is shifting from pure dividend defense toward a dividend-plus-growth barbell. (as_of: , type: trend, source: mailbox_thread:[source-id-redacted])
style_structure: “红利为核、科技战术、资源精选”的杠铃结构 (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
treasury_supply_impact: 国债发行抽水市场流动性 (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
usd_pressure_assumption: A-share allocation should not assume dollar pressure will fade quickly. (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
yen_unwind_transmission: 日元套利平仓可通过北向去杠杆、CNH离岸流动性、USD/CNY中间价与基差三条通道传导至A股。 (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
margin_collateral_ratio_increase: 监管已上调融资保证金至100% (as_of: 2026-06-23, type: event, source: evidence ref)
credit_stampede_risk: 不构成全市场信用踩踏的基准情形 (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
de_risk_trigger: 仅在USD/CNH、CNH-CNY基差、CNH HIBOR与HKMA工具使用率并发恶化时才显著降风险 (as_of: , type: risk, source: evidence ref)
deleveraging_resonance_risk: USD/CNY向7.30压力路径移动且CNH HIBOR飙升时，外资降仓与两融盘去杠杆同向共振 (as_of: , type: risk, source: evidence ref)
derisking_levers: The A-share implementation of cross-asset de-risking is to reduce total beta, financing beta, and supply beta, and shift style toward a defensive barbell. (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
derisking_stance: A-shares should not be put into full risk-off; risk should be reduced through targeted market-structure levers. (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
gamma_squeeze_risk: 面临368.9B两融及35B雪球负Gamma踩踏风险 (as_of: , type: risk, source: evidence ref)
leverage_resilience: A股杠杆结构在100%保证金规则下韧性显著 (as_of: 2026-06-14, type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
liquidity_buffer_insufficient: 国内政策与流动性缓冲不足以吸收外资流出、融资去杠杆与解禁供给 (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: risk, source: evidence ref)
liquidity_drawdown_delayed: -26% to -37% (as_of: , type: risk, source: evidence ref)
liquidity_drawdown_timely: -14% to -20% (as_of: , type: risk, source: evidence ref)
liquidity_squeeze_risk: core pain point is margin trading liquidation (as_of: , type: risk, source: evidence ref)
margin_deleveraging_risk: domestic margin trading deleveraging shock (as_of: , type: risk, source: evidence ref)
margin_liquidation_risk: 风格切换的主要风险在于...而非两融爆仓 (as_of: 2026-06-14, type: risk, source: evidence ref)
margin_trading_balance_record: 3000000000000 — 两融余额6-23历史首破3万亿 (as_of: 2026-06-23, type: metric, source: evidence ref)
passive_selling_pressure: 面临被动抛售压力 (as_of: , type: risk, source: mailbox_thread:[source-id-redacted])
portfolio_risk_rules: 必须加入成本转嫁、贸易政策和汇率止损规则 (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
rebalance_triggers: A股仓位调整与防御性轮动应使用USD/JPY与CNH流动性熔断器作为量化触发器 (as_of: 2026-06-20, type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
risk_exposure_strategy: 配置不宜全面降风险 (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
risk_premium_denominator_pressure: facing tighter risk premium denominator (as_of: , type: risk, source: evidence ref)
risk_reduction_stance_duration: 国内政策、国债供给与国家队减持的约束使得A股的降险防守配置姿态必须延续至6月末 (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
triple_market_risks: 市场面临外资流出、融资去杠杆以及解禁供给压力的三重风险 (as_of: 2026-06-22, type: risk, source: evidence ref)
triple_pressure_factors: 面临外资流出、两融去杠杆与解禁供给的三重压力 (as_of: , type: risk, source: evidence ref)
ashare_self_controllable_allocation: A-share 'self-controllability' should be treated as a sustainable structural overweight position (as_of: 2026-07-07, type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
daily_unlock_pressure: 58922000000 — 58.922 billion CNY (as_of: , type: metric, source: mailbox_thread:[source-id-redacted])
july_share_unlock_value: 258500000000 — 7月A股解禁市值约2585亿元 (as_of: , type: metric, source: evidence ref)
may_2026_unlocking_supply: RMB 1,804.37亿 (as_of: , type: event, source: evidence ref)
overweight_sectors: 超配电网、电力、有色、AI基础设施和高股息SOE金融 (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
a_share_valuation_stress_test: 针对A股进行估值压力测试 (as_of: , type: event, source: evidence ref)
broad_index_systemic_risk: A股不存在宽基系统性杀估值风险，主要冲击是高碳出口链局部 (as_of: 2026-06-17, type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
csi300_pe_vs_sp500: CSI300滚动P/E约14.9 vs 标普前瞻约22.3 (as_of: , type: metric, source: evidence ref)
equity_risk_budget_stance: 建议维持中性偏防御配置，暂不提高权益风险预算 (as_of: 2026-06-19, type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
macro_split_to_allocation: 宏观分化下一步需要转译为A股风格与行业配置观点。 (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
preferred_factors: Prefer high dividend, upstream pricing power, cost pass-through, and quality value factors within A-shares. (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
premium_requirement: 应只给中报可验证的电力证明标的溢价 (as_of: 2026-07-05, type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
valuation_floor: constitutes valuation floor for onshore equities (as_of: , type: opinion, source: evidence ref)
valuation_wall_pressure: 面临全球“估值之墙”的压力 (as_of: , type: risk, source: evidence ref)