返回投资研究台 2026-05-23
Market Context

报告对应赛道与标的

04
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Mag7 AI 平台再分层69 报告先进封装/HBM4 闸门178 报告AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选46 报告
STOCKS / ETFs
NVDANVIDIA证据映射 · 144 · 99%

研究对象: SPY,QQQ,IWM,NVDA

三表模型

一、模型口径

项目 口径
研究对象 本报告唯一研究对象为 SPY,QQQ,IWM,NVDA。
ETF 口径 SPY、QQQ、IWM 是基金，不是经营公司；本模型使用“投资收入表、资产负债表、现金流量/净资产变动表”替代经营公司三表。
NVDA 口径 NVDA 是经营公司；本模型使用标准损益表、资产负债表、现金流量表。
预测期 SPY、QQQ 为截至 9/30/26E、9/30/27E、9/30/28E 的三年预测；IWM 为截至 3/31/26E、3/31/27E、3/31/28E 的三年预测；NVDA 为 FY2027E、FY2028E、FY2029E 的三年预测。[自测算]
连接关系 ETF：期末净资产 = 期初净资产 + 经营形成的净资产增加 - 分配 + 份额交易净流入；经营形成的净资产增加 = 净投资收益 + 已实现及未实现收益。[自测算]
连接关系 NVDA：收入驱动毛利、经营费用、税后利润和经营现金流；现金及可出售证券由现金流量表滚动；资产负债表权益为总资产减总负债。[自测算]

二、损益表预测

2.1 ETF 投资收入表预测

标的 财年/截至日 收入拆分 总投资收入（Total investment income） 总费用（Total expenses） 净投资收益（Net investment income） 已实现及未实现收益（Net realized and unrealized gain） 经营形成的净资产增加（Net increase in net assets resulting from operations）
SPY 9/30/26E 非关联发行人股息收入 $9,145,087,204；关联方股息收入 $27,704,039；外国预扣税 $(2,151,642) [自测算] $9,170,639,601 [自测算] $639,812,065 [自测算] $8,530,827,536 [自测算] $54,423,142,178 [自测算] $62,953,969,714 [自测算]
SPY 9/30/27E 非关联发行人股息收入 $9,535,936,991；关联方股息收入 $28,888,076；外国预扣税 $(2,243,600) [自测算] $9,562,581,466 [自测算] $694,058,332 [自测算] $8,868,523,134 [自测算] $51,906,071,852 [自测算] $60,774,594,986 [自测算]
SPY 9/30/28E 非关联发行人股息收入 $9,883,537,274；关联方股息收入 $29,941,093；外国预扣税 $(2,325,383) [自测算] $9,911,152,984 [自测算] $749,582,999 [自测算] $9,161,569,985 [自测算] $56,058,557,601 [自测算] $65,220,127,586 [自测算]
QQQ 9/30/26E 股息收入 $3,043,725,056；外国预扣税 $(7,373,816) [自测算] $3,036,351,240 [自测算] $820,635,470 [自测算] $2,215,715,770 [自测算] $42,380,235,559 [自测算] $44,595,951,329 [自测算]
QQQ 9/30/27E 股息收入 $3,453,156,476；外国预扣税 $(8,365,716) [自测算] $3,444,790,760 [自测算] $918,610,869 [自测算] $2,526,179,891 [自测算] $39,182,454,148 [自测算] $41,708,634,039 [自测算]
QQQ 9/30/28E 股息收入 $3,856,498,245；外国预扣税 $(9,342,863) [自测算] $3,847,155,382 [自测算] ,012,409,311 [自测算] $2,834,746,071 [自测算] $38,660,021,427 [自测算] $41,494,767,498 [自测算]
IWM 3/31/26E 非关联股息收入 $815,054,373；关联股息收入 $6,332,311；非关联利息收入 ,011,332；关联证券借贷收入净额 $71,291,510；外国预扣税 $(2,159,902) [自测算] $891,529,623 [自测算] 24,551,933 [自测算] $766,977,690 [自测算] $3,800,211,522 [自测算] $4,567,189,212 [自测算]
IWM 3/31/27E 非关联股息收入 $895,651,878；关联股息收入 $6,958,488；非关联利息收入 ,111,338；关联证券借贷收入净额 $78,341,245；外国预扣税 $(2,373,486) [自测算] $979,689,463 [自测算] 33,914,387 [自测算] $845,775,076 [自测算] $4,743,930,716 [自测算] $5,589,705,792 [自测算]
IWM 3/31/28E 非关联股息收入 $967,304,028；关联股息收入 $7,515,167；非关联利息收入 ,200,245；关联证券借贷收入净额 $84,608,545；外国预扣税 $(2,563,365) [自测算] ,058,064,620 [自测算] 44,627,538 [自测算] $913,437,082 [自测算] $5,123,445,173 [自测算] $6,036,882,255 [自测算]

2.2 NVDA 损益表预测

标的 财年 收入拆分 收入（Revenue） 收入成本（Cost of revenue） 毛利（Gross profit） 经营费用（Operating expenses） 经营利润（Operating income） 其他收入净额（Other income, net） 所得税费用（Income tax expense） 净利润（Net income）
NVDA FY2027E 数据中心（Data Center） $350,166 million；边缘计算（Edge Computing） $30,449 million [自测算] $380,615 million [自测算] $95,534 million [自测算] $285,081 million [自测算] $34,255 million [自测算] $250,826 million [自测算] $7,612 million [自测算] $43,934 million [自测算] $214,504 million [自测算]
NVDA FY2028E 数据中心（Data Center） $422,558 million；边缘计算（Edge Computing） $41,792 million [自测算] $464,350 million [自测算] 23,053 million [自测算] $341,297 million [自测算] $44,113 million [自测算] $297,184 million [自测算] $6,965 million [自测算] $51,705 million [自测算] $252,444 million [自测算]
NVDA FY2029E 数据中心（Data Center） $480,603 million；边缘计算（Edge Computing） $53,400 million [自测算] $534,003 million [自测算] 49,521 million [自测算] $384,482 million [自测算] $53,400 million [自测算] $331,082 million [自测算] $5,340 million [自测算] $57,192 million [自测算] $279,230 million [自测算]

三、资产负债表预测

3.1 ETF 资产负债表预测

标的 截至日 总资产（Total assets） 总负债（Total liabilities） 净资产（Net assets） 连接检查
SPY 9/30/26E $743,667,083,978 [自测算] $2,151,771,807 [自测算] $741,515,312,171 [自测算] 总资产 - 总负债 = 净资产 [自测算]
SPY 9/30/27E $803,160,450,696 [自测算] $2,323,913,551 [自测算] $800,836,537,145 [自测算] 总资产 - 总负债 = 净资产 [自测算]
SPY 9/30/28E $867,413,286,752 [自测算] $2,509,826,635 [自测算] $864,903,460,117 [自测算] 总资产 - 总负债 = 净资产 [自测算]
QQQ 9/30/26E $441,467,075,875 [自测算] $6,106,474,227 [自测算] $435,360,601,648 [自测算] 总资产 - 总负债 = 净资产 [自测算]
QQQ 9/30/27E $490,028,454,221 [自测算] $6,778,186,392 [自测算] $483,250,267,829 [自测算] 总资产 - 总负债 = 净资产 [自测算]
QQQ 9/30/28E $536,581,157,372 [自测算] $7,422,114,099 [自测算] $529,159,043,273 [自测算] 总资产 - 总负债 = 净资产 [自测算]
IWM 3/31/26E $74,796,787,342 [自测算] $7,026,348,540 [自测算] $67,770,438,802 [自测算] 总资产 - 总负债 = 净资产 [自测算]
IWM 3/31/27E $80,780,530,329 [自测算] $7,588,456,423 [自测算] $73,192,073,906 [自测算] 总资产 - 总负债 = 净资产 [自测算]
IWM 3/31/28E $87,242,972,754 [自测算] $8,195,532,936 [自测算] $79,047,439,818 [自测算] 总资产 - 总负债 = 净资产 [自测算]

3.2 NVDA 资产负债表预测

标的 财年 现金、现金等价物和可出售证券（Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities） 应收账款净额（Accounts receivable, net） 存货（Inventories） 预付款及其他流动资产（Prepaid expenses and other current assets） 物业设备净额（Property and equipment, net） 其他资产（Other assets） 总资产（Total assets） 应付账款（Accounts payable） 应计及其他流动负债（Accrued and other current liabilities） 债务（Debt） 其他负债（Other liabilities） 总负债（Total liabilities） 股东权益（Shareholders' equity）
NVDA FY2027E 22,163 million [自测算] $68,511 million [自测算] $39,965 million [自测算] $5,709 million [自测算] 9,031 million [自测算] $76,123 million [自测算] $331,502 million [自测算] 7,128 million [自测算] $38,062 million [自测算] $8,468 million [自测算] 2,000 million [自测算] $75,658 million [自测算] $255,844 million [自测算]
NVDA FY2028E $223,361 million [自测算] $83,583 million [自测算] $46,435 million [自测算] $6,965 million [自测算] $23,218 million [自测算] $83,583 million [自测算] $467,145 million [自测算] $20,896 million [自测算] $46,435 million [自测算] $8,468 million [自测算] 3,000 million [自测算] $88,799 million [自测算] $378,346 million [自测算]
NVDA FY2029E $356,835 million [自测算] $96,121 million [自测算] $50,730 million [自测算] $8,010 million [自测算] $26,700 million [自测算] $85,440 million [自测算] $623,836 million [自测算] $24,030 million [自测算] $53,400 million [自测算] $8,468 million [自测算] 4,000 million [自测算] $99,898 million [自测算] $523,938 million [自测算]

四、现金流量表预测

4.1 ETF 现金流量/净资产变动表预测

标的 财年/截至日 期初净资产（Beginning net assets） 净投资收益（Net investment income） 已实现及未实现收益（Net realized and unrealized gain） 经营形成的净资产增加（Net increase in net assets resulting from operations） 分配（Distributions） 份额交易形成的净资产增加（Net increase in net assets from share/unit transactions） 期末净资产（Ending net assets）
SPY 9/30/26E $680,289,277,221 [S1] $8,530,827,536 [自测算] $54,423,142,178 [自测算] $62,953,969,714 [自测算] $(8,530,827,536) [自测算] $6,802,892,772 [自测算] $741,515,312,171 [自测算]
SPY 9/30/27E $741,515,312,171 [自测算] $8,868,523,134 [自测算] $51,906,071,852 [自测算] $60,774,594,986 [自测算] $(8,868,523,134) [自测算] $7,415,153,122 [自测算] $800,836,537,145 [自测算]
SPY 9/30/28E $800,836,537,145 [自测算] $9,161,569,985 [自测算] $56,058,557,601 [自测算] $65,220,127,586 [自测算] $(9,161,569,985) [自测算] $8,008,365,371 [自测算] $864,903,460,117 [自测算]
QQQ 9/30/26E $385,274,868,715 [S2] $2,215,715,770 [自测算] $42,380,235,559 [自测算] $44,595,951,329 [自测算] $(2,215,715,770) [自测算] $7,705,497,374 [自测算] $435,360,601,648 [自测算]
QQQ 9/30/27E $435,360,601,648 [自测算] $2,526,179,891 [自测算] $39,182,454,148 [自测算] $41,708,634,039 [自测算] $(2,526,179,891) [自测算] $8,707,212,033 [自测算] $483,250,267,829 [自测算]
QQQ 9/30/28E $483,250,267,829 [自测算] $2,834,746,071 [自测算] $38,660,021,427 [自测算] $41,494,767,498 [自测算] $(2,834,746,071) [自测算] $7,248,754,017 [自测算] $529,159,043,273 [自测算]
IWM 3/31/26E $63,336,858,693 [S3] $766,977,690 [自测算] $3,800,211,522 [自测算] $4,567,189,212 [自测算] $(766,977,690) [自测算] $633,368,587 [自测算] $67,770,438,802 [自测算]
IWM 3/31/27E $67,770,438,802 [自测算] $845,775,076 [自测算] $4,743,930,716 [自测算] $5,589,705,792 [自测算] $(845,775,076) [自测算] $677,704,388 [自测算] $73,192,073,906 [自测算]
IWM 3/31/28E $73,192,073,906 [自测算] $913,437,082 [自测算] $5,123,445,173 [自测算] $6,036,882,255 [自测算] $(913,437,082) [自测算] $731,920,739 [自测算] $79,047,439,818 [自测算]

4.2 NVDA 现金流量表预测

标的 财年 期初现金、现金等价物和可出售证券（Beginning cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities） 净利润（Net income） 经营活动现金流（Net cash provided by operating activities） 购买物业设备和无形资产（Purchases related to property and equipment and intangible assets） 自由现金流（Free cash flow） 战略投资和收购（Strategic investments and acquisitions） 回购普通股支付额（Payments related to repurchases of common stock） 已付股息（Dividends paid） 期末现金、现金等价物和可出售证券（Ending cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities）
NVDA FY2027E $62,556 million [S4] $214,504 million [自测算] 88,764 million [自测算] $(10,657) million [自测算] 78,107 million [自测算] $(20,000) million [自测算] $(80,000) million [自测算] $(18,500) million [自测算] 22,163 million [自测算]
NVDA FY2028E 22,163 million [自测算] $252,444 million [自测算] $227,200 million [自测算] $(13,002) million [自测算] $214,198 million [自测算] $(15,000) million [自测算] $(75,000) million [自测算] $(23,000) million [自测算] $223,361 million [自测算]
NVDA FY2029E $223,361 million [自测算] $279,230 million [自测算] $256,892 million [自测算] $(14,418) million [自测算] $242,474 million [自测算] $(15,000) million [自测算] $(70,000) million [自测算] $(24,000) million [自测算] $356,835 million [自测算]

五、关键假设表

标的 假设类别 明确关键假设 历史输入与依据 模型公式
SPY 【关键假设】期初净资产 9/30/26E 期初净资产为 $680,289,277,221 [S1] SPY 在 9/30/25 的 Net assets 为 $680,289,277,221 [S1] 第一年 Beginning net assets = 9/30/25 Net assets [自测算]
SPY 【关键假设】资产回报 9/30/26E、9/30/27E、9/30/28E 的净资产总回报假设分别为 8.0%、7.0%、7.0% [自测算] SPY 在 9/30/25、9/30/24、9/30/23 的 NAV Total Return 分别为 17.46%、36.15%、21.45% [S1] Ending net assets = Beginning net assets × (1 + 回报假设 + 净流入假设) [自测算]
SPY 【关键假设】净流入 9/30/26E、9/30/27E、9/30/28E 的份额交易净流入均为期初净资产的 1.0% [自测算] SPY 在 9/30/25 的净资产来自份额交易净减少 $(3,657,984,114) [S1] Net share/unit transactions = Beginning net assets × 净流入假设 [自测算]
SPY 【关键假设】收益率与费用率 净投资收益率假设为 1.20%、1.15%、1.10%；费用率假设为 0.09%、0.09%、0.09% [自测算] SPY 在 9/30/25 的净投资收益/平均净资产为 1.20%，费用率为 0.09% [S1] Net investment income = Average net assets × 净投资收益率；Total expenses = Average net assets × 费用率 [自测算]
SPY 【关键假设】负债率 Liabilities / Total assets 维持 0.29% [自测算] SPY 在 9/30/25 的 Total assets 为 $682,263,379,796，Total liabilities 为 ,974,102,575 [S1] Total assets = Net assets / (1 - 负债率) [自测算]
QQQ 【关键假设】期初净资产 9/30/26E 期初净资产为 $385,274,868,715 [S2] QQQ 在 9/30/25 的 Net Assets 为 $385,274,868,715 [S2] 第一年 Beginning net assets = 9/30/25 Net Assets [自测算]
QQQ 【关键假设】资产回报 9/30/26E、9/30/27E、9/30/28E 的净资产总回报假设分别为 11.0%、9.0%、8.0% [自测算] QQQ 在 9/30/25、9/30/24、9/30/23 的 Net Asset Value Total Return 分别为 23.63%、37.21%、34.98% [S2] Ending net assets = Beginning net assets × (1 + 回报假设 + 净流入假设) [自测算]
QQQ 【关键假设】净流入 9/30/26E、9/30/27E、9/30/28E 的净流入分别为期初净资产的 2.0%、2.0%、1.5% [自测算] QQQ 在 9/30/25 的份额交易净增加为 $20,722,512,924 [S2] Net share transactions = Beginning net assets × 净流入假设 [自测算]
QQQ 【关键假设】收益率与费用率 净投资收益率假设为 0.54%、0.55%、0.56%；费用率假设为 0.20%、0.20%、0.20% [自测算] QQQ 在 9/30/25 的净投资收益/平均净资产为 0.54%，费用率为 0.20% [S2] Net investment income = Average net assets × 净投资收益率；Total expenses = Average net assets × 费用率 [自测算]
QQQ 【关键假设】负债率 Liabilities / Total assets 维持 1.38% [自测算] QQQ 在 9/30/25 的 Total assets 为 $390,678,828,208，Total liabilities 为 $5,403,959,493 [S2] Total assets = Net assets / (1 - 负债率) [自测算]
IWM 【关键假设】期初净资产 3/31/26E 期初净资产为 $63,336,858,693 [S3] IWM 在 3/31/25 的 NET ASSETS 为 $63,336,858,693 [S3] 第一年 Beginning net assets = 3/31/25 NET ASSETS [自测算]
IWM 【关键假设】资产回报 3/31/26E、3/31/27E、3/31/28E 的净资产总回报假设分别为 6.0%、7.0%、7.0% [自测算] IWM 在 3/31/25、3/31/24、3/31/23 的 NAV Total Return 分别为 (4.14)%、19.51%、(11.63)% [S3] Ending net assets = Beginning net assets × (1 + 回报假设 + 净流入假设) [自测算]
IWM 【关键假设】净流入 3/31/26E、3/31/27E、3/31/28E 的净流入均为期初净资产的 1.0% [自测算] IWM 在 3/31/25 的资本份额交易净增加为 $2,687,596,374 [S3] Net capital share transactions = Beginning net assets × 净流入假设 [自测算]
IWM 【关键假设】收益率与费用率 净投资收益率假设为 1.17%、1.20%、1.20%；费用率假设为 0.19%、0.19%、0.19% [自测算] IWM 在 3/31/25 的净投资收益/平均净资产为 1.17%，费用率为 0.19% [S3] Net investment income = Average net assets × 净投资收益率；Total expenses = Average net assets × 费用率 [自测算]
IWM 【关键假设】负债率 Liabilities / Total assets 维持 9.39% [自测算] IWM 在 3/31/25 的 Total assets 为 $69,903,539,571，Total liabilities 为 $6,566,680,878 [S3] Total assets = Net assets / (1 - 负债率) [自测算]
NVDA 【关键假设】FY2027 收入 FY2027E Revenue 为 $380,615 million [自测算] NVDA 在 FY2026 的 Revenue 为 $215,938 million [S4]；Q1 FY2027 Revenue 为 $81,615 million，Q2 FY2027 revenue outlook 为 $91.0 billion ± 2% [S5] FY2027E Revenue = Q1 actual $81,615 million + Q2 guide $91,000 million + Q3E 00,000 million + Q4E 08,000 million [自测算]
NVDA 【关键假设】FY2028/FY2029 收入 FY2028E Revenue 增长 22.0%；FY2029E Revenue 增长 15.0% [自测算] NVDA 在 FY2026 的 Revenue 同比增长 65% [S4]；Q1 FY2027 Revenue 同比增长 85% [S5] FY2028E Revenue = FY2027E Revenue × 1.22；FY2029E Revenue = FY2028E Revenue × 1.15 [自测算]
NVDA 【关键假设】收入拆分 FY2027E 数据中心（Data Center） 占 92.0%，FY2028E 数据中心（Data Center） 占 91.0%，FY2029E 数据中心（Data Center） 占 90.0% [自测算] Q1 FY2027 数据中心（Data Center）收入 为 $75.2 billion，边缘计算（Edge Computing）收入 为 $6.4 billion [S5] 数据中心（Data Center）收入 = Revenue × Data Center 占比；边缘计算（Edge Computing）收入 = Revenue - 数据中心（Data Center）收入 [自测算]
NVDA 【关键假设】毛利率 FY2027E、FY2028E、FY2029E 的 Gross margin 分别为 74.9%、73.5%、72.0% [自测算] Q2 FY2027 GAAP gross margin outlook 为 74.9% ± 50 basis points [S5]；FY2026 Gross margin 为 71.1% [S4] Gross profit = Revenue × Gross margin；Cost of revenue = Revenue - Gross profit [自测算]
NVDA 【关键假设】经营费用率 FY2027E、FY2028E、FY2029E 的 Operating expenses / Revenue 分别为 9.0%、9.5%、10.0% [自测算] FY2026 Total operating expenses 为 $23,076 million，Revenue 为 $215,938 million [S4]；Q2 FY2027 GAAP operating expenses outlook 为 about $8.5 billion [S5] Operating expenses = Revenue × 经营费用率 [自测算]
NVDA 【关键假设】税率 FY2027E、FY2028E、FY2029E 的所得税率均为 17.0% [自测算] NVDA 预计 FY2027 GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates between 16.0% and 18.0% [S5] Income tax expense = Pretax income × 17.0% [自测算]
NVDA 【关键假设】经营现金流转换 FY2027E、FY2028E、FY2029E 的 OCF / Net income 分别为 0.88x、0.90x、0.92x [自测算] FY2026 Net cash provided by operating activities 为 02,718 million，Net income 为 20,067 million [S4] Net cash provided by operating activities = Net income × OCF / Net income [自测算]
NVDA 【关键假设】资本开支 FY2027E、FY2028E、FY2029E 的 Purchases related to property and equipment and intangible assets / Revenue 分别为 2.8%、2.8%、2.7% [自测算] FY2026 Purchases related to property and equipment and intangible assets 为 $6,042 million，Revenue 为 $215,938 million [S4] Purchases related to property and equipment and intangible assets = Revenue × 资本开支率 [自测算]
NVDA 【关键假设】资本回报 FY2027E、FY2028E、FY2029E 的 repurchases 分别为 $80,000 million、$75,000 million、$70,000 million；dividends paid 分别为 8,500 million、$23,000 million、$24,000 million [自测算] NVDA 在 Q1 FY2027 宣布 $80.0 billion additional share repurchase 鉴权字段，并将季度现金股息从 $0.01 per share 提至 $0.25 per share [S5] Ending liquidity = Beginning liquidity + Free cash flow - Strategic investments and acquisitions - Repurchases - Dividends [自测算]
NVDA 【关键假设】营运资本 Accounts receivable / Revenue 为 18.0%；Accounts payable / Revenue 为 4.5%；Accrued and other current liabilities / Revenue 为 10.0% [自测算] FY2026 Accounts receivable 为 $38,466 million，Accounts payable 为 $9,812 million，Accrued and other current liabilities 为 $21,352 million，Revenue 为 $215,938 million [S4] 各营运资本项目 = Revenue × 对应比率 [自测算]
NVDA 【关键假设】库存 FY2027E、FY2028E、FY2029E 的 Inventories / Revenue 分别为 10.5%、10.0%、9.5% [自测算] FY2026 Inventories 为 $21,403 million，Revenue 为 $215,938 million [S4] Inventories = Revenue × 库存率 [自测算]

六、资料来源 / Sources

[S1] U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, “SPDR S&P 500® ETF Trust Annual Report, September 30, 2025” — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884394/000119312525297563/d18808dn30d.htm

[S2] U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, “Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 Annual Financial Statements and Other Information, September 30, 2025” — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067839/000119312525249697/d29525dn30b2.htm

[S3] BlackRock / iShares, “iShares Russell 2000 ETF Annual Financial Statements and Additional Information, March 31, 2025” — https://www.ishares.com/us/literature/annual-financial-statements/afs-j-ishares-russell-top-2000-etfs-03-31-en.pdf

[S4] U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, “NVIDIA Corporation Form 10-K, fiscal year ended Jan 25, 2026” — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm

[S5] NVIDIA, “NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for First Quarter Fiscal 2027” — https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx