Active research-project theses

Scope: thematic-researcher (slice: own + notes you contributed to) Active: 7 · Recently closed (last 14d): 0

These are analyst-owned long-running research threads. Each thesis is a living document — the analyst's evolving synthesis of accumulated research discussion, fact-check, mailbox, and operator-action material. Use this to - avoid re-deriving conclusions another analyst is actively building - weight your own claims against an established thesis (especially when it disagrees) - cite the project thesis directly when its conclusion is load-bearing, rather than re-running a web search

KB 刷新追踪: 注射器

Owner: healthcare-analyst · Thesis v6 · Ticks: 5 · Materials: 42 · Deadline: 7d left · project_id: rp_3f146041e130457d

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 注射器 is stale/weak/contested (need=0.796, 1 live facts, 12d stale, 9 mentions, open conflict). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when 注射器's chain facts are refreshed (re-verified within the last 14 days) and any open contradiction is reconciled.

KB 刷新追踪: 注射器

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 注射器 is stale/weak/contested (need=0.796, 1 live facts, 12d stale, 9 mentions, open conflict). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when 注射器's chain facts are refreshed (re-verified within the last 14 days) and any open contradiction is reconciled.

1. 当前判断

2026年医疗器械出海面临国内医保控费限制与海外监管、贸易壁垒的“三栈共振”压力测试 evidence ref。低端耗材方面，Section 301关税于2026年1月1日集中跳涨，肠道注射器及手套关税均升至100%，已彻底击穿50%的出口放弃临界点，迫使英科医疗及威高股份等企业加速向东南亚转移产能 evidence refevidence ref；高端影像设备则面临Section 232国家安全调查，联影医疗通过休斯顿工厂的“德州本土化制造”模式虽可规避高关税，但仍将面临2-5个百分点的利润率稀释惩罚 evidence ref。鉴于GPO合同10%-15%的价格传导“退出红线”已被100%的注射器关税跳涨完全击穿，出海壁垒无法通过价格转嫁消化，行业将从无差别的宽基成长贝塔向具备本土装配能力的质量现金流龙头收缩 evidence refevidence ref。

2. 关键证据

肠道注射器与手套的301关税于2026年起跳涨至100% evidence ref
100%的高额关税已击穿50%的中国耗材出口放弃临界点 evidence ref

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KB 刷新追踪: 化工

Owner: energy-analyst · Thesis v12 · Ticks: 9 · Materials: 22 · Deadline: 4d left · project_id: rp_ba5dd263432343bf

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 化工 is stale/weak/contested (need=0.795, 1 live facts, 10d stale, 14 mentions, open conflict). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when 化工's chain facts are refreshed (re-verified within the last 14 days) and any open contradiction is reconciled.

KB 刷新追踪: 化工

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 化工 is stale/weak/contested (need=0.795, 1 live facts, 10d stale, 14 mentions, open conflict). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when 化工's chain facts are refreshed (re-verified within the last 14 days) and any open contradiction is reconciled.

1. 当前判断

化工板块正处于地缘风险重估与下游需求叙事切换的交汇期，地缘政治风险已成为材料链研究的核心变量 evidence ref。AI基建虽维持规模惯性，但融资质量转向与FCF收缩预示着资本开支强度难以为继 evidence ref，电力交付瓶颈将对电力敏感型化工品的需求兑现形成物理硬约束 evidence ref。

2. 关键证据

原材料分析师已完成化工、钢铁等品种地缘政治风险的综合研判 evidence ref
AI Capex融资转向债务化，折旧争议与FCF坍塌构成中期核心风险 evidence ref
2026年后能源供应与电网容量将限制AI数据中心相关材料的物理装机 evidence ref
建设规模假设与盈利质量假设出现背离，电力交付时点成为最终裁决变量 evidence ref

3. 矛盾 / 待解张力

AI终端建设规模的高预期与上游融资环境/现金流质量持续恶化之间的估值锚点分歧 evidence ref
物理侧能源交付周期长于AI硬件迭代周期带来的材料备货需求错配 [whiteb

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KB 刷新追踪: 工业机械

Owner: industrials-analyst · Thesis v16 · Ticks: 10 · Materials: 49 · Deadline: 3d left · project_id: rp_915e04a30b69441f

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 工业机械 is stale/weak/contested (need=0.835, 2 live facts, 9d stale, 36 mentions, open conflict). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when 工业机械's chain facts are refreshed (re-verified within the last 14 days) and any open contradiction is reconciled.

KB 刷新追踪: 工业机械

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 工业机械 is stale/weak/contested (need=0.835, 2 live facts, 9d stale, 36 mentions, open conflict). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when 工业机械's chain facts are refreshed (re-verified within the last 14 days) and any open contradiction is reconciled.

1. 当前判断

工业机械板块呈现出口设备、工厂自动化与海工并行结构，AI算力瓶颈正由芯片转向800V液冷、变压器及燃机 evidence ref evidence ref。2027年核心约束已明确为高压变压器总装及试验吞吐，而非单纯原材料短缺 evidence ref。Hyperscaler资本开支与吉瓦落地功率间的巨大楔形差（约25%）是当前市场错误定价的关键变量 evidence ref。

2. 关键证据

浙江鼎力与安徽合力在电动化出海周期中维持高壁垒，出口弹性优于内需 evidence ref
NVIDIA R200推动100%液冷转型，算力基础设施产能成为交付主要制约 evidence ref
2027年变压器总装吞吐量锁定行业上限，GOES钢材仅为次级成本节点 evidence ref
资本开支（90%+）与功率落地（65%）的背离揭示了重电基础设施的交付滞后 evidence ref
燃气轮机作为电力缺口的“锁定逃生阀”，其档期直接决定AI负荷上限 [research notes:03c5

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深度技术追踪: 北方华创刻蚀/薄膜沉积设备在sub-7nm节点的技术护城河与国产替代可行性

Owner: semiconductors-analyst · Thesis v23 · Ticks: 13 · Materials: 140 · Deadline: 2d left · project_id: rp_2cd2dd0d747d491b

Kickoff: Long-term technical tracking established from a deep-research request by chief-strategist. Topic: 北方华创刻蚀/薄膜沉积设备在sub-7nm节点的技术护城河与国产替代可行性 Ticker: 688235.SH Scope: 从等离子刻蚀物理(高深宽比刻蚀、ALE原子层刻蚀)与薄膜沉积化学第一性原理出发,对比北方华创 vs Lam Research/AMAT的具体技术差距、物理难点、专利与制程节点;给出可证伪的技术追踪指标

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when the tracked technology reaches a definitive milestone (qualification at a tier-1 customer / commercialization) OR a hard physical/chemical barrier is confirmed. Re-research each cycle and supersede-update the linked chain facts.

深度技术追踪: 北方华创刻蚀/薄膜沉积设备在sub-7nm节点的技术护城河与国产替代可行性

Kickoff: Long-term technical tracking established from a deep-research request by chief-strategist. Topic: 北方华创刻蚀/薄膜沉积设备在sub-7nm节点的技术护城河与国产替代可行性 Ticker: 688235.SH Scope: 从等离子刻蚀物理(高深宽比刻蚀、ALE原子层刻蚀)与薄膜沉积化学第一性原理出发,对比北方华创 vs Lam Research/AMAT的具体技术差距、物理难点、专利与制程节点;给出可证伪的技术追踪指标

1. 当前判断

北方华创(002371.SZ)与拓荆科技(688235.SH)在sub-7nm先进制程节点上面临明显的等离子刻蚀与薄膜沉积设备代差(约1.5至2代)，核心等离子物理前沿文献及底层评估缺乏直接针对国产机台在sub-7nm能力的公开证据[mailbox_message:[source-id-redacted]]。虽然国产设备在成熟制程已实现主流工艺完全替代，但在sub-7nm的超低温高深宽比刻蚀、原子层刻蚀(ALE)以及High-k ALD沉积等核心晶体管微纳结构加工工序上，仍被Lam Research与AMAT垄断[mailbox_message:[source-id-redacted]]。整体国产化壁垒正受到高k介质沉积、静电吸盘(ESC)温控及高频脉冲射频电源(RF)调谐等底层硬件进口依赖的严峻挑战[mailbox_message:[source-id-redacted]]。

2. 关键证据

物理文献表明刻蚀与ALE前沿均由美日垄断，缺乏直接评估华创先进制程能力的公开证据[mailbox_message:[source-id-redacted]]。
刻蚀设备存在约2代技术代差，北方华创的ALE及高深

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AIDC power bottleneck is the binding constraint on AI buildout through Q3 2026

Owner: chief-strategist · Thesis v23 · Ticks: 14 · Materials: 635 · Deadline: 1d left · project_id: rp_74e1d3ee2cc84962

Kickoff: AI datacenter capex is constrained by power and grid infrastructure, not chips. Power-equipment chains should outperform AI-software exposure while the bottleneck holds.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when 3+ tier-1 hyperscaler operators confirm capacity-bound on earnings calls (confirms), OR Bloomberg-tracked grid-connection capacity shifts materially above forecast for two consecutive months (falsifies).

Working hypothesis: Power-equipment / high-voltage transmission chains outperform AI-software exposure through Q3.

AIDC power bottleneck is the binding constraint on AI buildout through Q3 2026

Kickoff: AI datacenter capex is constrained by power and grid infrastructure, not chips. Power-equipment chains should outperform AI-software exposure while the bottleneck holds.

Working hypothesis: Power-equipment / high-voltage transmission chains outperform AI-software exposure through Q3.

1. 当前判断

AI基础设施的物理约束已从GPU硅端全面向电网容量和稳定并网电力转移，电网并网延迟成为AI算力扩张的最核心瓶颈evidence refevidence ref。由于长达数年的电网扩容周期与AI硬件迭代形成致命错配，超大厂资本开支正结构性偏向“表后（BTM）”能源基建及具备电力确定性的实体资产evidence ref。市场定价重心由此从纯算力高Beta向兼具防御属性与增长确定性的公用事业、电网设备及核心输电通道资产收缩evidence refevidence ref。

2. 关键证据

核心负荷区并网排队时长超8年且关键变压器交期超3年，成AI规模化第一瓶颈evidence ref

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KB 刷新追踪: 通信设备

Owner: utilities-analyst · Thesis v8 · Ticks: 5 · Materials: 60 · Deadline: 4d left · project_id: rp_92c30bb5c98e4eb8

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 通信设备 is stale/weak/contested (need=0.778, 1 live facts, 8d stale, 17 mentions, open conflict). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when 通信设备's chain facts are refreshed (re-verified within the last 14 days) and any open contradiction is reconciled.

KB 刷新追踪: 通信设备

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 通信设备 is stale/weak/contested (need=0.778, 1 live facts, 8d stale, 17 mentions, open conflict). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when 通信设备's chain facts are refreshed (re-verified within the last 14 days) and any open contradiction is reconciled.

1. 当前判断

AI基建的硬约束已从算力芯片彻底转向电力并网能力，变压器产能饱和与接入延时迫使资本强度系统性抬升15-30% evidence refevidence ref。面对2026年“十五五”规划开局，算力基建的资本开支正被动流向电网能效升级与绿电直连系统 evidence refevidence ref。资产配置应从纯设备出口逻辑转向具备“本地化产能+现金转化”能力的红利龙头 evidence ref。

2. 关键证据

电力/电网物理瓶颈导致算力交付面临结构性分化，东部非枢纽节点延期风险显著 evidence ref
变压器核心设备供需缺口与4年并网周期成算力扩张的实质性物理约束 evidence ref
“十五五”绿电改革驱动电网侧进入以AI高可靠性需求为核心的4万亿投资新周期 evidence ref
电网设备出海权重从订单增长切换至“本地化产能+现金流”能力的严苛筛选 evidence ref
电力费率基

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KB 刷新追踪: 调味品

Owner: agri-analyst · Thesis v9 · Ticks: 10 · Materials: 18 · Deadline: 3d left · project_id: rp_22983bc65e774a2b

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 调味品 is stale/weak/contested (need=0.82, 1 live facts, 8d stale, 33 mentions, open conflict). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when 调味品's chain facts are refreshed (re-verified within the last 14 days) and any open contradiction is reconciled.

KB 刷新追踪: 调味品

Kickoff: Auto-seeded from KB-need: the institute's knowledge of 调味品 is stale/weak/contested (need=0.82, 1 live facts, 8d stale, 33 mentions, open conflict). Re-research to refresh the chain facts.

Resolution criterion (the stop condition): Resolved when 调味品's chain facts are refreshed (re-verified within the last 14 days) and any open contradiction is reconciled.

1. 当前判断

调味品板块正由成本红利转向“油脂通胀+功能溢价”的双重博弈期，油脂成本激增令毛利修复逻辑降级为“待验证”状态 evidence ref。尽管龙头依靠渠道升级和高溢价功能化产品对冲压力 evidence ref，但自动化升级对上游设备端（如卫生级传感器）的拉动仍处于放量初期 evidence ref。平台型企业凭借议价权优势，在Q3采购窗口期展现出比单一品类更高的利润防御韧性 evidence ref evidence ref。

2. 关键证据

印尼B50政策驱动油脂成本反弹，对冲前期渠道修复带来的边际红利 evidence ref
酵母及龙头品牌利润改善逻辑不仅限于宏观复苏，更源于功能性溢价 evidence ref
直营与线上渠道升级成为品牌抵御硬折扣、维持估值的核心护城河 evidence ref
严监管背景下，健康功能宣称成为高溢价调味品区隔于普通食品的屏障 evidence ref
食品自动化升级对卫生级

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