研究对象: SPY,QQQ,IWM,NVDA
盈利预测
一、模型口径
| 项目 | 口径 |
|---|---|
| 研究对象 | 本报告唯一研究对象为 SPY,QQQ,IWM,NVDA。 |
| ETF 口径 | SPY、QQQ、IWM 是 ETF，不是经营公司；因此无经营公司式 Revenue、Gross profit、Net income 或 EPS，本报告使用 Total investment income、Net investment income、Net increase in net assets resulting from operations 和每份净投资收益替代口径。[S1][S2][S3] |
| NVDA 口径 | NVDA 是经营公司；本报告沿用 研究档案 的 FY2027E、FY2028E、FY2029E 收入、毛利、净利润和现金流预测。[自测算] |
| 估值口径 | ETF 目标价按当前价格与情景总回报假设测算；NVDA 目标价按 FY2027E EPS 与情景 P/E 倍数测算。[自测算] |
二、收入拆分预测
2.1 ETF 投资收入拆分预测
| 标的 | 财年/截至日 | 收入拆分 | 总投资收入（Total investment income） | 净投资收益（Net investment income） | 经营形成的净资产增加 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 9/30/26E | 非关联发行人股息收入 $9,145,087,204；关联方股息收入 $27,704,039；外国预扣税 $(2,151,642) [自测算] | $9,170,639,601 [自测算] | $8,530,827,536 [自测算] | $62,953,969,714 [自测算] |
| SPY | 9/30/27E | 非关联发行人股息收入 $9,535,936,991；关联方股息收入 $28,888,076；外国预扣税 $(2,243,600) [自测算] | $9,562,581,466 [自测算] | $8,868,523,134 [自测算] | $60,774,594,986 [自测算] |
| SPY | 9/30/28E | 非关联发行人股息收入 $9,883,537,274；关联方股息收入 $29,941,093；外国预扣税 $(2,325,383) [自测算] | $9,911,152,984 [自测算] | $9,161,569,985 [自测算] | $65,220,127,586 [自测算] |
| QQQ | 9/30/26E | 股息收入 $3,043,725,056；外国预扣税 $(7,373,816) [自测算] | $3,036,351,240 [自测算] | $2,215,715,770 [自测算] | $44,595,951,329 [自测算] |
| QQQ | 9/30/27E | 股息收入 $3,453,156,476；外国预扣税 $(8,365,716) [自测算] | $3,444,790,760 [自测算] | $2,526,179,891 [自测算] | $41,708,634,039 [自测算] |
| QQQ | 9/30/28E | 股息收入 $3,856,498,245；外国预扣税 $(9,342,863) [自测算] | $3,847,155,382 [自测算] | $2,834,746,071 [自测算] | $41,494,767,498 [自测算] |
| IWM | 3/31/26E | 非关联股息收入 $815,054,373；关联股息收入 $6,332,311；非关联利息收入 ,011,332；关联证券借贷收入净额 $71,291,510；外国预扣税 $(2,159,902) [自测算] | $891,529,623 [自测算] | $766,977,690 [自测算] | $4,567,189,212 [自测算] |
| IWM | 3/31/27E | 非关联股息收入 $895,651,878；关联股息收入 $6,958,488；非关联利息收入 ,111,338；关联证券借贷收入净额 $78,341,245；外国预扣税 $(2,373,486) [自测算] | $979,689,463 [自测算] | $845,775,076 [自测算] | $5,589,705,792 [自测算] |
| IWM | 3/31/28E | 非关联股息收入 $967,304,028；关联股息收入 $7,515,167；非关联利息收入 ,200,245；关联证券借贷收入净额 $84,608,545；外国预扣税 $(2,563,365) [自测算] | ,058,064,620 [自测算] | $913,437,082 [自测算] | $6,036,882,255 [自测算] |
2.2 NVDA 产品线收入预测
| 标的 | 财年 | Data Center | Edge Computing | Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | FY2027E | $350,166 million [自测算] | $30,449 million [自测算] | $380,615 million [自测算] |
| NVDA | FY2028E | $422,558 million [自测算] | $41,792 million [自测算] | $464,350 million [自测算] |
| NVDA | FY2029E | $480,603 million [自测算] | $53,400 million [自测算] | $534,003 million [自测算] |
NVDA 的 FY2027E 收入预测以 Q1 FY2027 实际 revenue $81,615 million、Q2 FY2027 revenue outlook $91.0 billion ± 2% 为锚，再加入 Q3E 00,000 million 与 Q4E 08,000 million 的自测算输入。[S5][自测算]
三、毛利率与净利率趋势
| 标的 | 财年/截至日 | 毛利率 | 净利率/收益率替代口径 | 经营收益率替代口径 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 9/30/26E | 不适用：ETF 无销售成本和毛利口径 [S1] | 净投资收益 / 总投资收入 = 93.02% [自测算: $8,530,827,536 / $9,170,639,601] | 经营形成的净资产增加 / 期初净资产 = 9.25% [自测算: $62,953,969,714 / $680,289,277,221；期初净资产输入见 S1] |
| SPY | 9/30/27E | 不适用：ETF 无销售成本和毛利口径 [S1] | 净投资收益 / 总投资收入 = 92.74% [自测算: $8,868,523,134 / $9,562,581,466] | 经营形成的净资产增加 / 期初净资产 = 8.20% [自测算: $60,774,594,986 / $741,515,312,171] |
| SPY | 9/30/28E | 不适用：ETF 无销售成本和毛利口径 [S1] | 净投资收益 / 总投资收入 = 92.44% [自测算: $9,161,569,985 / $9,911,152,984] | 经营形成的净资产增加 / 期初净资产 = 8.14% [自测算: $65,220,127,586 / $800,836,537,145] |
| QQQ | 9/30/26E | 不适用：ETF 无销售成本和毛利口径 [S2] | 净投资收益 / 总投资收入 = 72.97% [自测算: $2,215,715,770 / $3,036,351,240] | 经营形成的净资产增加 / 期初净资产 = 11.58% [自测算: $44,595,951,329 / $385,274,868,715；期初净资产输入见 S2] |
| QQQ | 9/30/27E | 不适用：ETF 无销售成本和毛利口径 [S2] | 净投资收益 / 总投资收入 = 73.33% [自测算: $2,526,179,891 / $3,444,790,760] | 经营形成的净资产增加 / 期初净资产 = 9.58% [自测算: $41,708,634,039 / $435,360,601,648] |
| QQQ | 9/30/28E | 不适用：ETF 无销售成本和毛利口径 [S2] | 净投资收益 / 总投资收入 = 73.68% [自测算: $2,834,746,071 / $3,847,155,382] | 经营形成的净资产增加 / 期初净资产 = 8.59% [自测算: $41,494,767,498 / $483,250,267,829] |
| IWM | 3/31/26E | 不适用：ETF 无销售成本和毛利口径 [S3] | 净投资收益 / 总投资收入 = 86.03% [自测算: $766,977,690 / $891,529,623] | 经营形成的净资产增加 / 期初净资产 = 7.21% [自测算: $4,567,189,212 / $63,336,858,693；期初净资产输入见 S3] |
| IWM | 3/31/27E | 不适用：ETF 无销售成本和毛利口径 [S3] | 净投资收益 / 总投资收入 = 86.33% [自测算: $845,775,076 / $979,689,463] | 经营形成的净资产增加 / 期初净资产 = 8.25% [自测算: $5,589,705,792 / $67,770,438,802] |
| IWM | 3/31/28E | 不适用：ETF 无销售成本和毛利口径 [S3] | 净投资收益 / 总投资收入 = 86.33% [自测算: $913,437,082 / ,058,064,620] | 经营形成的净资产增加 / 期初净资产 = 8.25% [自测算: $6,036,882,255 / $73,192,073,906] |
| NVDA | FY2027E | 74.9% [自测算] | Net margin = 56.36% [自测算: $214,504 million / $380,615 million] | Operating margin = 65.90% [自测算: $250,826 million / $380,615 million] |
| NVDA | FY2028E | 73.5% [自测算] | Net margin = 54.37% [自测算: $252,444 million / $464,350 million] | Operating margin = 63.99% [自测算: $297,184 million / $464,350 million] |
| NVDA | FY2029E | 72.0% [自测算] | Net margin = 52.29% [自测算: $279,230 million / $534,003 million] | Operating margin = 62.00% [自测算: $331,082 million / $534,003 million] |
四、EPS 预测（三年）
ETF 无公司式 EPS，因此 SPY、QQQ、IWM 使用“每份净投资收益替代口径”；该替代口径以当前价格、预测期收益率和年度滚动目标价格为输入，不代表基金披露的 GAAP EPS。[S1][S2][S3][自测算]
| 标的 | 财年/截至日 | 公司式 EPS | 每份净投资收益替代口径 / EPS | 关键输入 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 9/30/26E | 不适用 [S1] | $8.95 [自测算] | $746.03 当前价格 × 1.20% 净投资收益率 [S6][自测算] |
| SPY | 9/30/27E | 不适用 [S1] | $9.27 [自测算] | $805.71 滚动目标价格 × 1.15% 净投资收益率 [自测算] |
| SPY | 9/30/28E | 不适用 [S1] | $9.48 [自测算] | $862.11 滚动目标价格 × 1.10% 净投资收益率 [自测算] |
| QQQ | 9/30/26E | 不适用 [S2] | $3.87 [自测算] | $717.54 当前价格 × 0.54% 净投资收益率 [S7][自测算] |
| QQQ | 9/30/27E | 不适用 [S2] | $4.38 [自测算] | $796.47 滚动目标价格 × 0.55% 净投资收益率 [自测算] |
| QQQ | 9/30/28E | 不适用 [S2] | $4.86 [自测算] | $868.15 滚动目标价格 × 0.56% 净投资收益率 [自测算] |
| IWM | 3/31/26E | 不适用 [S3] | $3.34 [自测算] | $285.12 当前价格 × 1.17% 净投资收益率 [S8][自测算] |
| IWM | 3/31/27E | 不适用 [S3] | $3.63 [自测算] | $302.23 滚动目标价格 × 1.20% 净投资收益率 [自测算] |
| IWM | 3/31/28E | 不适用 [S3] | $3.88 [自测算] | $323.38 滚动目标价格 × 1.20% 净投资收益率 [自测算] |
| NVDA | FY2027E | $8.86 [自测算] | 不适用 [S4] | Net income $214,504 million / diluted shares 24,200 million；Q1 FY2027 diluted shares 为 24,391 million [S5][自测算] |
| NVDA | FY2028E | 0.65 [自测算] | 不适用 [S4] | Net income $252,444 million / diluted shares 23,700 million [自测算] |
| NVDA | FY2029E | 1.98 [自测算] | 不适用 [S4] | Net income $279,230 million / diluted shares 23,300 million [自测算] |
五、三情景预测
5.1 ETF 情景表
| 标的 | 情景 | 核心假设 | 每份净投资收益替代口径 | 目标价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | Bull | 当前价格 $746.03；12 个月总回报 +12.0%；净投资收益率 1.20% [S6][自测算] |
0.03 [自测算: $835.55 × 1.20%] | $835.55 [自测算: $746.03 × 1.12] |
| SPY | Base | 当前价格 $746.03；12 个月总回报 +8.0%；净投资收益率 1.20% [S6][自测算] |
$9.67 [自测算: $805.71 × 1.20%] | $805.71 [自测算: $746.03 × 1.08] |
| SPY | Bear | 当前价格 $746.03；12 个月总回报 (10.0)%；净投资收益率 1.20% [S6][自测算] |
$8.06 [自测算: $671.43 × 1.20%] | $671.43 [自测算: $746.03 × 0.90] |
| QQQ | Bull | 当前价格 $717.54；12 个月总回报 +16.0%；净投资收益率 0.54% [S7][自测算] |
$4.49 [自测算: $832.35 × 0.54%] | $832.35 [自测算: $717.54 × 1.16] |
| QQQ | Base | 当前价格 $717.54；12 个月总回报 +11.0%；净投资收益率 0.54% [S7][自测算] |
$4.30 [自测算: $796.47 × 0.54%] | $796.47 [自测算: $717.54 × 1.11] |
| QQQ | Bear | 当前价格 $717.54；12 个月总回报 (15.0)%；净投资收益率 0.54% [S7][自测算] |
$3.29 [自测算: $609.91 × 0.54%] | $609.91 [自测算: $717.54 × 0.85] |
| IWM | Bull | 当前价格 $285.12；12 个月总回报 +12.0%；净投资收益率 1.17% [S8][自测算] |
$3.74 [自测算: $319.33 × 1.17%] | $319.33 [自测算: $285.12 × 1.12] |
| IWM | Base | 当前价格 $285.12；12 个月总回报 +6.0%；净投资收益率 1.17% [S8][自测算] |
$3.54 [自测算: $302.23 × 1.17%] | $302.23 [自测算: $285.12 × 1.06] |
| IWM | Bear | 当前价格 $285.12；12 个月总回报 (12.0)%；净投资收益率 1.17% [S8][自测算] |
$2.94 [自测算: $250.91 × 1.17%] | $250.91 [自测算: $285.12 × 0.88] |
5.2 NVDA 情景表
| 标的 | 情景 | 核心假设 | EPS | 目标价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Bull | FY2027E revenue $420,000 million、gross margin 76.0%、operating expenses / revenue 8.5%、tax rate 16.5%、diluted shares 24,000 million、P/E 32.0x；乐观口径假设 Q2 FY2027 revenue outlook $91.0 billion ± 2% 后续继续被上修。[S5][自测算] |
0.14 [自测算] | $324.54 [自测算: 0.14 × 32.0x] |
| NVDA | Base | FY2027E revenue $380,615 million、gross margin 74.9%、operating expenses / revenue 9.0%、tax rate 17.0%、diluted shares 24,200 million、P/E 28.0x；基准口径沿用三表模型。[S5][自测算] |
$8.86 [自测算] | $248.19 [自测算: $8.86 × 28.0x] |
| NVDA | Bear | FY2027E revenue $340,000 million、gross margin 72.0%、operating expenses / revenue 10.0%、tax rate 18.0%、diluted shares 24,400 million、P/E 22.0x；悲观口径反映 China Data Center compute revenue 为零假设延续、供应链或价格压力抬升。[S5][自测算] |
$7.22 [自测算] | 58.81 [自测算: $7.22 × 22.0x] |
六、敏感性分析
6.1 ETF 关键假设敏感性
| 标的 | 敏感变量 | 影响方向 | 量化影响 |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 12 个月总回报假设每变动 1.0 个百分点 [自测算] |
目标价同向变动 [自测算] | $7.46 / share [自测算: $746.03 × 1.0%] |
| SPY | 净投资收益率每变动 10 bps [自测算] | 每份净投资收益替代口径同向变动 [自测算] | $0.75 / share [自测算: $746.03 × 0.10%] |
| QQQ | 12 个月总回报假设每变动 1.0 个百分点 [自测算] |
目标价同向变动 [自测算] | $7.18 / share [自测算: $717.54 × 1.0%] |
| QQQ | 净投资收益率每变动 10 bps [自测算] | 每份净投资收益替代口径同向变动 [自测算] | $0.72 / share [自测算: $717.54 × 0.10%] |
| IWM | 12 个月总回报假设每变动 1.0 个百分点 [自测算] |
目标价同向变动 [自测算] | $2.85 / share [自测算: $285.12 × 1.0%] |
| IWM | 净投资收益率每变动 10 bps [自测算] | 每份净投资收益替代口径同向变动 [自测算] | $0.29 / share [自测算: $285.12 × 0.10%] |
6.2 NVDA EPS 敏感性
下表以 FY2027E revenue $380,615 million、gross margin 74.9%、operating expenses / revenue 9.0%、other income net $7,612 million、tax rate 17.0%、diluted shares 24,200 million 为基准输入。[自测算]
| Gross margin \ Revenue | Revenue -10.0% | Revenue Base | Revenue +10.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72.9% | EPS $7.77 [自测算] | EPS $8.60 [自测算] | EPS $9.44 [自测算] |
| 74.9% | EPS $8.00 [自测算] | EPS $8.86 [自测算] | EPS $9.72 [自测算] |
| 76.9% | EPS $8.24 [自测算] | EPS $9.12 [自测算] | EPS 0.01 [自测算] |
敏感性结论：NVDA 的 FY2027E EPS 对收入弹性高于单独毛利率弹性；在毛利率维持 74.9% 的情况下，收入从基准下调 10.0% 会使 EPS 从 $8.86 降至 $8.00，而收入上调 10.0% 会使 EPS 升至 $9.72。[自测算] 对 ETF 而言，目标价最直接受权益总回报假设影响，每 1.0 个百分点总回报变动对应 SPY、QQQ、IWM 目标价分别变动 $7.46、$7.18、$2.85。[自测算]
七、资料来源 / Sources
[S1] U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, “SPDR S&P 500® ETF Trust Annual Report, September 30, 2025” — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/884394/000119312525297563/d18808dn30d.htm
[S2] U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, “Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 Annual Financial Statements and Other Information, September 30, 2025” — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067839/000119312525249697/d29525dn30b2.htm
[S3] BlackRock / iShares, “iShares Russell 2000 ETF Annual Financial Statements and Additional Information, March 31, 2025” — https://www.ishares.com/us/literature/annual-financial-statements/afs-j-ishares-russell-top-2000-etfs-03-31-en.pdf
[S4] U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, “NVIDIA Corporation Form 10-K, fiscal year ended Jan 25, 2026” — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000021/nvda-20260125.htm
[S5] NVIDIA, “NVIDIA Announces Financial Results for First Quarter Fiscal 2027” — https://investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2026/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2027/default.aspx
[S6] Trading 212, “Invest in State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Dist), NYSE: SPY ETF” — https://www.trading212.com/trading-instruments/invest/SPY.US
[S7] MarketBeat, “Invesco QQQ (QQQ) Chart & Stock Price History” — https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/QQQ/chart/
[S8] Investing.com, “IWM Stock Price | iShares Russell 2000 ETF” — https://www.investing.com/etfs/ishares-russell-2000-index-etf