研究对象: EM
EM 三表模型
口径说明：本模型以 EM 2024 年 Form 20-F 的合并报表为基准，金额单位除特别注明外均为 RMB million；EM 已于 2026-04-29 完成私有化合并，每 ADS 对价为 US.25、每普通股对价为 US$0.625，并于 2026-05-11 提交 Form 15 后暂停公开报告义务，因此 2025E-2027E 全部为模型假设而非公司指引。[S1][S2][S3]
1. 关键假设表
| 假设项 | 2024A 基准 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 依据与说明 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 移动设备充电收入增长 | 51.7% [S1] | 8.0% [自测算] | 3.0% [自测算] | 5.0% [自测算] | 2024 年移动设备充电收入为 RMB1,384.695 million，低于 2023 年 RMB2,869.215 million；假设 2025 年继续消化网络伙伴模式切换，2026-2027 年温和恢复。[S1][自测算] |
| 光伏业务收入增长 | 841.0% [自测算：RMB479.850 / RMB50.995 - 1，输入来自 S1] | 15.0% [自测算] | 10.0% [自测算] | 8.0% [自测算] | 2024 年光伏业务收入为 RMB479.850 million；假设高基数后增速逐年放缓。[S1][自测算] |
| 其他收入增长 | 22.3% [自测算：RMB29.875 / RMB38.437 - 1，输入来自 S1] | 0.0% [自测算] | 2.0% [自测算] | 2.0% [自测算] | 其他收入规模较小，按稳定低增长处理。[S1][自测算] |
| 毛利率 | 42.4% [自测算：RMB803.633 / RMB1,894.420，输入来自 S1] | 43.5% [自测算] | 45.0% [自测算] | 46.0% [自测算] | 假设网络伙伴模式稳定后成本率小幅改善，但光伏业务占比限制综合毛利率回升幅度。[S1][自测算] |
| 研发费用率 | 4.4% [自测算：RMB82.882 / RMB1,894.420，输入来自 S1] | 4.3% [自测算] | 4.2% [自测算] | 4.0% [自测算] | 维持核心系统、硬件和结算能力投入，费用率随收入恢复小幅摊薄。[自测算] |
| 销售与营销费用率 | 32.9% [自测算：RMB623.867 / RMB1,894.420，输入来自 S1] | 30.0% [自测算] | 28.5% [自测算] | 27.5% [自测算] | 假设轻资产化和点位激励优化带来费用率下降，但行业竞争仍限制降幅。[S1][自测算] |
| 管理费用率 | 7.9% [自测算：RMB150.196 / RMB1,894.420，输入来自 S1] | 8.0% [自测算] | 7.8% [自测算] | 7.5% [自测算] | 2025 年维持私有化后组织成本，2026-2027 年随收入增长摊薄。[自测算] |
| 利息和投资收益率 | 2024 年利息和投资收益 RMB112.976 million [S1] | 3.5% [自测算] | 3.5% [自测算] | 3.5% [自测算] | 用期初现金、受限现金及短期投资合计余额乘以 3.5% 估算。[自测算] |
| 所得税率 | 2024 年所得税费用 RMB51.744 million [S1] | 25.0% [自测算] | 25.0% [自测算] | 25.0% [自测算] | 对正的税前利润按 25.0% 计税；亏损年度不确认额外税盾。[自测算] |
| 应收账款周转天数 | 54.6 天 [自测算：RMB283.167 / RMB1,894.420 * 365，输入来自 S1] | 55.0 天 [自测算] | 55.0 天 [自测算] | 55.0 天 [自测算] | 延续 2024 年回款效率。[自测算] |
| 存货周转天数 | 39.6 天 [自测算：RMB118.288 / RMB1,090.787 * 365，输入来自 S1] | 40.0 天 [自测算] | 40.0 天 [自测算] | 40.0 天 [自测算] | 按成本口径稳定建模。[自测算] |
| 合同资产 / 光伏收入 | 54.1% [自测算：RMB259.518 / RMB479.850，输入来自 S1] | 40.0% [自测算] | 35.0% [自测算] | 30.0% [自测算] | 假设光伏项目收款管理改善，合同资产占比逐年下降。[自测算] |
| 资本开支 / 收入 | 0.5% [自测算：RMB9.413 / RMB1,894.420，输入来自 S1] | 1.0% [自测算] | 1.0% [自测算] | 1.0% [自测算] | 轻资产化后维持低资本开支，但保留设备、系统与项目支持投入。[S1][自测算] |
2. 利润表预测
| 科目 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 移动设备充电收入 | 1,384.695 [S1] | 1,273.919 [自测算] | 1,312.137 [自测算] | 1,377.744 [自测算] |
| 光伏业务收入 | 479.850 [S1] | 551.827 [自测算] | 607.010 [自测算] | 655.571 [自测算] |
| 其他收入 | 29.875 [S1] | 29.875 [自测算] | 30.473 [自测算] | 31.082 [自测算] |
| 总收入 | 1,894.420 [S1] | 1,855.622 [自测算] | 1,949.620 [自测算] | 2,064.397 [自测算] |
| 收入成本 | 1,090.787 [S1] | 1,048.426 [自测算] | 1,072.291 [自测算] | 1,114.774 [自测算] |
| 毛利 | 803.633 [S1] | 807.196 [自测算] | 877.329 [自测算] | 949.623 [自测算] |
| 研发费用 | 82.882 [S1] | 79.792 [自测算] | 81.884 [自测算] | 82.576 [自测算] |
| 销售与营销费用 | 623.867 [S1] | 556.687 [自测算] | 555.642 [自测算] | 567.709 [自测算] |
| 管理费用 | 150.196 [S1] | 148.450 [自测算] | 152.070 [自测算] | 154.830 [自测算] |
| 其他经营收益 / 损失 | 17.856 [S1] | 9.278 [自测算] | 7.798 [自测算] | 6.193 [自测算] |
| 经营利润 / 亏损 | 71.168 [S1] | 12.989 [自测算] | 79.934 [自测算] | 138.315 [自测算] |
| 利息和投资收益 | 112.976 [S1] | 105.401 [自测算] | 109.070 [自测算] | 115.284 [自测算] |
| 外汇及其他净额 | 3.598 [自测算：RMB-3.767 + RMB0.169，输入来自 S1] | 0.000 [自测算] | 0.000 [自测算] | 0.000 [自测算] |
| 税前利润 | 38.210 [S1] | 118.390 [自测算] | 189.004 [自测算] | 253.599 [自测算] |
| 所得税费用 | 51.744 [S1] | 29.597 [自测算] | 47.251 [自测算] | 63.400 [自测算] |
| 净利润 / 亏损 | 13.534 [S1] | 88.792 [自测算] | 141.753 [自测算] | 190.199 [自测算] |
| 毛利率 | 42.4% [自测算] | 43.5% [自测算] | 45.0% [自测算] | 46.0% [自测算] |
| 净利率 | 0.7% [自测算] | 4.8% [自测算] | 7.3% [自测算] | 9.2% [自测算] |
3. 资产负债表预测
| 科目 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 现金、受限现金及短期投资 | 3,011.444 [自测算：RMB787.375 + RMB92.331 + RMB2,131.738，输入来自 S1] | 3,116.287 [自测算] | 3,293.818 [自测算] | 3,519.340 [自测算] |
| 应收账款净额 | 283.167 [S1] | 279.614 [自测算] | 293.778 [自测算] | 311.073 [自测算] |
| 存货 | 118.288 [S1] | 114.896 [自测算] | 117.511 [自测算] | 122.167 [自测算] |
| 合同资产 | 259.518 [S1] | 220.731 [自测算] | 212.454 [自测算] | 196.671 [自测算] |
| 预付款及其他流动资产 | 276.768 [S1] | 259.787 [自测算] | 263.199 [自测算] | 268.372 [自测算] |
| 物业、设备和软件净额 | 139.425 [S1] | 97.981 [自测算] | 72.477 [自测算] | 58.121 [自测算] |
| 其他非流动资产 | 38.950 [自测算：RMB178.375 - RMB139.425，输入来自 S1] | 38.950 [自测算] | 38.950 [自测算] | 38.950 [自测算] |
| 总资产 | 4,127.560 [S1] | 4,128.246 [自测算] | 4,292.187 [自测算] | 4,514.695 [自测算] |
| 应付账款及票据 | 563.432 [S1] | 471.792 [自测算] | 471.808 [自测算] | 479.353 [自测算] |
| 应计费用及其他流动负债 | 345.478 [S1] | 334.012 [自测算] | 341.183 [自测算] | 350.947 [自测算] |
| 其他流动负债 | 335.274 [自测算：RMB1,244.184 - RMB563.432 - RMB345.478，输入来自 S1] | 335.274 [自测算] | 335.274 [自测算] | 335.274 [自测算] |
| 非流动负债 | 226.855 [S1] | 226.855 [自测算] | 226.855 [自测算] | 226.855 [自测算] |
| 总负债 | 1,471.039 [S1] | 1,367.933 [自测算] | 1,375.120 [自测算] | 1,392.429 [自测算] |
| 股东权益 | 2,656.521 [S1] | 2,760.313 [自测算] | 2,917.067 [自测算] | 3,122.265 [自测算] |
| 总负债及股东权益 | 4,127.560 [S1] | 4,128.246 [自测算] | 4,292.187 [自测算] | 4,514.695 [自测算] |
| 平衡校验 | 0.000 [自测算] | 0.000 [自测算] | 0.000 [自测算] | 0.000 [自测算] |
4. 现金流量表预测
| 科目 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 净利润 / 亏损 | 13.534 [S1] | 88.792 [自测算] | 141.753 [自测算] | 190.199 [自测算] |
| 折旧与摊销 | 151.313 [S1] | 60.000 [自测算] | 45.000 [自测算] | 35.000 [自测算] |
| 股权激励等非现金费用 | 19.781 [S1] | 15.000 [自测算] | 15.000 [自测算] | 15.000 [自测算] |
| 营运资本及其他调整 | 363.229 [自测算：OCF - 净利润 - 折旧摊销 - 股权激励，输入来自 S1] | 40.394 [自测算] | 4.726 [自测算] | 5.967 [自测算] |
| 经营现金流 | 205.669 [S1] | 123.399 [自测算] | 197.027 [自测算] | 246.166 [自测算] |
| 资本开支 | 9.413 [S1] | 18.556 [自测算] | 19.496 [自测算] | 20.644 [自测算] |
| 自由现金流 | 215.082 [自测算：RMB-205.669 - RMB9.413，输入来自 S1] | 104.843 [自测算] | 177.531 [自测算] | 225.522 [自测算] |
| 股息与回购等融资现金流 | 99.204 [S1] | 0.000 [自测算] | 0.000 [自测算] | 0.000 [自测算] |
| 现金、受限现金及短期投资净变化 | 292.335 [自测算：2024 年期末 RMB3,011.444 - 2023 年期末 RMB3,303.779，输入来自 S1] | 104.843 [自测算] | 177.531 [自测算] | 225.522 [自测算] |
| 期末现金、受限现金及短期投资 | 3,011.444 [自测算] | 3,116.287 [自测算] | 3,293.818 [自测算] | 3,519.340 [自测算] |
5. 模型联动检查
| 检查项 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 结论 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 利润表净利润进入权益 | 88.792 [自测算] | 141.753 [自测算] | 190.199 [自测算] | 股东权益按上一年权益 + 净利润 + 股权激励非现金权益增加计算。[自测算] |
| 自由现金流进入流动性资产 | 104.843 [自测算] | 177.531 [自测算] | 225.522 [自测算] | 期末现金、受限现金及短期投资按上一年余额 + 自由现金流 + 融资现金流计算。[自测算] |
| PPE 联动 | 97.981 [自测算] | 72.477 [自测算] | 58.121 [自测算] | PPE 按上一年 PPE + 资本开支 - 折旧摊销计算。[自测算] |
| 资产负债表平衡差额 | 0.000 [自测算] | 0.000 [自测算] | 0.000 [自测算] | 三年预测均满足总资产 = 总负债 + 股东权益。[自测算] |
资料来源 / Sources
[S1] SEC, Smart Share Global Limited Form 20-F for fiscal year ended December 31, 2024 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1834253/000141057825000928/em-20241231x20f.htm
[S2] SEC, Smart Share Global Limited Announces Completion of Going Private Transaction, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 6-K — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1834253/000110465926051976/tm2613184d1_ex99-1.htm
[S3] SEC, Smart Share Global Limited Form 15 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1834253/000110465926058212/tm2614186d1_1512g.htm