返回投资研究台 2026-06-26
Market Context

报告对应赛道与标的

03
LANES
美债利率/美元再定价229 报告能源转型/储能光伏45 报告AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产48 报告

研究对象: P

三表模型

模型口径

项目 口径
研究对象 P，即 Everpure, Inc.，公司已从 Pure Storage, Inc. 更名为 Everpure, Inc.，并在 NYSE 使用股票代码 P。[S1][S2]
报表单位 除百分比、周转天数、倍数外，全部为百万美元；FY2026A 报表数由 10-K 千美元数除以 1,000 得出。[S1][自测算]
历史基准 FY2026A 对应财年截至 February 1, 2026。[S1]
预测期间 FY2027E、FY2028E、FY2029E，均为三年预测期。[自测算]
收入口径 Product revenue 包括 FlashArray、FlashBlade、hyperscaler shipments royalties、Portworx by Everpure term software licenses；Subscription services revenue 包括 Evergreen、Portworx by Everpure、Everpure Cloud、支持维护与专业服务。[S1]
FY2027E 锚点 FY2027E revenue 使用公司 FY27 新指引 $4.41B to $4.51B 的中点 $4.46B。[S2][自测算：($4.41B + $4.51B) / 2 = $4.46B]
预测性质 FY2027E-FY2029E 为自测算情景模型，不是公司指引；所有核心驱动在“关键假设表”中逐项标注。[自测算]

关键假设表

假设编号 模型项目 FY2027E FY2028E FY2029E 假设依据与标记
A1 总收入 4,460.0[自测算] 5,083.7[自测算] 5,688.9[自测算] FY2027E 使用公司 FY27 revenue 指引中点 $4.46B；FY2028E/FY2029E 分别按收入增长 14.0%/11.9% 建模，参考 P FY2026 revenue 增长 16%[S1]、FY27 指引增长 20%-23%[S2]及企业闪存存储 2025-2030 CAGR 11.42%[S3]。
A2 Product revenue 增速 25.0%[自测算] 13.0%[自测算] 11.0%[自测算] FY2027E 假设受 Q1 product revenue $577 million、同比 55%[S2]及 FY27 全年指引上修带动；FY2028E/FY2029E 假设增速回落至接近行业结构性增长。[自测算]
A3 Subscription services revenue 增速 18.0%[自测算] 15.2%[自测算] 13.0%[自测算] FY2027E 假设与 Q1 subscription services revenue $476 million、同比 17%[S2]接近；FY2028E/FY2029E 假设随 Evergreen、Portworx 与云订阅续约扩张继续增长但逐步放缓。[S1][自测算]
A4 Product gross margin 65.0%[自测算] 66.0%[自测算] 66.5%[自测算] FY2026 product gross margin 约 67.0%[自测算：1 - 651.444 / 1,971.678，输入来自 S1]；FY2027E 下调反映 FY27 Q1 GAAP product gross margin 64.5%[S2]与组件成本压力，后两年小幅恢复。[自测算]
A5 Subscription gross margin 74.0%[自测算] 74.5%[自测算] 75.0%[自测算] FY2026 subscription services gross margin 约 74.4%[自测算：1 - 433.446 / 1,691.165，输入来自 S1]；FY27 Q1 GAAP subscription services gross margin 73.8%[S2]，模型假设规模效应温和改善。[自测算]
A6 R&D / 收入 24.5%[自测算] 23.8%[自测算] 23.0%[自测算] FY2026 R&D / revenue 为 26.3%[自测算：963.291 / 3,662.843，输入来自 S1]，FY27 Q1 为 24.6%[自测算：259.092 / 1,052.896，输入来自 S2]；模型假设经营杠杆释放。[自测算]
A7 Sales and marketing / 收入 31.5%[自测算] 30.5%[自测算] 29.5%[自测算] FY2026 sales and marketing / revenue 为 32.3%[自测算：1,181.488 / 3,662.843，输入来自 S1]；模型假设规模扩大后费率逐步下降。[自测算]
A8 General and administrative / 收入 8.8%[自测算] 8.5%[自测算] 8.2%[自测算] FY2026 G&A / revenue 为 8.7%[自测算：318.358 / 3,662.843，输入来自 S1]；FY27 Q1 为 9.2%[自测算：96.445 / 1,052.896，输入来自 S2]，模型假设后续缓慢下降。[自测算]
A9 Other income 70.0[自测算] 65.0[自测算] 60.0[自测算] FY2026 other income 为 109.468[S1]，FY27 Q1 other income 为 13.931[S2]；模型保守假设利息与投资收益从高位下降。[自测算]
A10 有效税率 18.0%[自测算] 20.0%[自测算] 20.0%[自测算] FY2026 provision for income taxes 为 36.103、pre-tax income 为 224.284，隐含税率 16.1%[自测算：36.103 / 224.284，输入来自 S1]；模型按利润正常化提高税率。[自测算]
A11 Capex / 收入 7.0%[自测算] 6.5%[自测算] 6.0%[自测算] FY2026 purchases of property and equipment 为 264.344，占收入 7.2%[自测算：264.344 / 3,662.843，输入来自 S1]；模型假设资本强度逐年下降。[自测算]
A12 D&A / 收入 3.6%[自测算] 3.5%[自测算] 3.4%[自测算] FY2026 depreciation and amortization 为 147.815，占收入 4.0%[自测算：147.815 / 3,662.843，输入来自 S1]；模型随收入扩张略降。[自测算]
A13 SBC / 收入 11.5%[自测算] 10.8%[自测算] 10.0%[自测算] FY2026 stock-based compensation expense 为 481.652，占收入 13.1%[自测算：481.652 / 3,662.843，输入来自 S1]；FY27 Q1 为 122.064，占收入 11.6%[自测算：122.064 / 1,052.896，输入来自 S2]。
A14 应收账款周转天数 78 天[自测算] 76 天[自测算] 75 天[自测算] FY2026 AR / revenue 对应约 94 天[自测算：944.844 / 3,662.843 × 365，输入来自 S1]；模型假设从 FY27 起收款效率恢复。[自测算]
A15 存货周转天数 28 天[自测算] 26 天[自测算] 25 天[自测算] FY2026 inventory / cost of revenue 对应约 26 天[自测算：75.935 / 1,084.890 × 365，输入来自 S1]；模型假设 FY27 因供给链和产品节奏略升，之后回落。[自测算]
A16 Deferred revenue / 收入 55.0%[自测算] 54.0%[自测算] 53.0%[自测算] FY2026 deferred revenue 合计 2,227.497，占收入 60.8%[自测算：(1,181.055 + 1,046.442) / 3,662.843，输入来自 S1]；FY27 Q1 RPO 为 $3.8 billion、同比 41%[S2]，模型保守假设递延收入占比逐步正常化。[自测算]

损益表预测

损益表项目 FY2026A FY2027E FY2028E FY2029E
Product revenue 1,971.7[S1] 2,464.6[自测算] 2,785.0[自测算] 3,091.3[自测算]
Subscription services revenue 1,691.2[S1] 1,995.4[自测算] 2,298.7[自测算] 2,597.5[自测算]
Total revenue 3,662.8[S1] 4,460.0[自测算] 5,083.7[自测算] 5,688.9[自测算]
Product cost of revenue (651.4)[S1] (862.6)[自测算] (946.9)[自测算] (1,035.6)[自测算]
Subscription services cost of revenue (433.4)[S1] (518.8)[自测算] (586.2)[自测算] (649.4)[自测算]
Gross profit 2,578.0[S1] 3,078.6[自测算] 3,550.6[自测算] 4,003.9[自测算]
Gross margin 70.4%[自测算：2,577.953 / 3,662.843，输入来自 S1] 69.0%[自测算] 69.8%[自测算] 70.4%[自测算]
Research and development (963.3)[S1] (1,092.7)[自测算] (1,209.9)[自测算] (1,308.4)[自测算]
Sales and marketing (1,181.5)[S1] (1,404.9)[自测算] (1,550.5)[自测算] (1,678.2)[自测算]
General and administrative (318.4)[S1] (392.5)[自测算] (432.1)[自测算] (466.5)[自测算]
Restructuring and impairment 0.0[S1] 0.0[自测算] 0.0[自测算] 0.0[自测算]
Total operating expenses (2,463.1)[S1] (2,890.1)[自测算] (3,192.6)[自测算] (3,453.2)[自测算]
Income from operations 114.8[S1] 188.5[自测算] 358.1[自测算] 550.7[自测算]
GAAP operating margin 3.1%[自测算：114.816 / 3,662.843，输入来自 S1] 4.2%[自测算] 7.0%[自测算] 9.7%[自测算]
Other income, net 109.5[S1] 70.0[自测算] 65.0[自测算] 60.0[自测算]
Income before provision for income taxes 224.3[S1] 258.5[自测算] 423.1[自测算] 610.7[自测算]
Provision for income taxes (36.1)[S1] (46.5)[自测算] (84.6)[自测算] (122.1)[自测算]
Net income 188.2[S1] 212.0[自测算] 338.5[自测算] 488.6[自测算]
Net margin 5.1%[自测算：188.181 / 3,662.843，输入来自 S1] 4.8%[自测算] 6.7%[自测算] 8.6%[自测算]

资产负债表预测

资产负债表项目 FY2026A FY2027E FY2028E FY2029E
Cash and cash equivalents 854.9[S1] 1,009.7[自测算] 1,279.9[自测算] 1,640.6[自测算]
Marketable securities 692.4[S1] 650.0[自测算] 650.0[自测算] 650.0[自测算]
Accounts receivable, net 944.8[S1] 953.1[自测算] 1,058.5[自测算] 1,168.9[自测算]
Inventory 75.9[S1] 106.0[自测算] 109.2[自测算] 115.4[自测算]
Deferred commissions 419.6[自测算：139.379 + 280.190，输入来自 S1] 468.3[自测算] 523.6[自测算] 568.9[自测算]
Property and equipment, net 587.0[S1] 738.7[自测算] 891.2[自测算] 1,039.1[自测算]
Goodwill and intangible assets, net 372.4[自测算：365.075 + 7.346，输入来自 S1] 370.4[自测算] 370.4[自测算] 370.4[自测算]
Operating lease right-of-use assets 186.0[S1] 202.0[自测算] 205.0[自测算] 205.0[自测算]
Other assets 541.2[自测算：356.015 + 7.687 + 177.472，输入来自 S1] 650.0[自测算] 690.0[自测算] 730.0[自测算]
Total assets 4,674.3[S1] 5,148.1[自测算] 5,777.8[自测算] 6,488.3[自测算]
Accounts payable 153.3[S1] 189.2[自测算] 210.0[自测算] 230.8[自测算]
Accrued and other liabilities 631.6[自测算：347.205 + 184.338 + 100.096，输入来自 S1] 691.3[自测算] 762.6[自测算] 824.9[自测算]
Operating lease liabilities 216.1[自测算：44.080 + 172.063，输入来自 S1] 230.0[自测算] 235.0[自测算] 235.0[自测算]
Deferred revenue 2,227.5[自测算：1,181.055 + 1,046.442，输入来自 S1] 2,453.0[自测算] 2,745.2[自测算] 3,015.1[自测算]
Debt 0.0[S1] 0.0[自测算] 0.0[自测算] 0.0[自测算]
Total liabilities 3,228.6[S1] 3,563.5[自测算] 3,952.8[自测算] 4,305.8[自测算]
Stockholders' equity 1,445.7[S1] 1,584.5[自测算：Total assets - Total liabilities] 1,825.0[自测算：Total assets - Total liabilities] 2,182.5[自测算：Total assets - Total liabilities]
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity 4,674.3[S1] 5,148.1[自测算] 5,777.8[自测算] 6,488.3[自测算]
平衡校验 0.0[自测算] 0.0[自测算] 0.0[自测算] 0.0[自测算]

现金流量表预测

现金流量表项目 FY2026A FY2027E FY2028E FY2029E
Net income 188.2[S1] 212.0[自测算] 338.5[自测算] 488.6[自测算]
Depreciation and amortization 147.8[S1] 160.6[自测算] 177.9[自测算] 193.4[自测算]
Stock-based compensation expense 481.7[S1] 512.9[自测算] 549.0[自测算] 568.9[自测算]
净营运资本及递延收入变动 62.4[自测算：880.085 - 188.181 - 147.815 - 481.652，输入来自 S1] 139.1[自测算] 185.2[自测算] 151.2[自测算]
Net cash provided by operating activities 880.1[S1] 1,024.5[自测算] 1,250.7[自测算] 1,402.1[自测算]
Purchases of property and equipment (264.3)[S1] (312.2)[自测算] (330.4)[自测算] (341.3)[自测算]
Marketable securities and other investing, net 156.3[自测算：-108.069 - (-264.344)，输入来自 S1] 42.4[自测算：692.446 - 650.000] 0.0[自测算] 0.0[自测算]
Net cash provided by / used in investing activities (108.1)[S1] (269.8)[自测算] (330.4)[自测算] (341.3)[自测算]
Net cash used in financing activities (644.8)[S1] (600.0)[自测算] (650.0)[自测算] (700.0)[自测算]
Net increase in cash and cash equivalents 127.2[自测算：880.085 - 108.069 - 644.787，输入来自 S1] 154.8[自测算] 270.2[自测算] 360.8[自测算]
Ending cash and cash equivalents 854.9[S1] 1,009.7[自测算] 1,279.9[自测算] 1,640.6[自测算]
Free cash flow 615.7[自测算：880.085 - 264.344，输入来自 S1] 712.3[自测算] 920.2[自测算] 1,060.7[自测算]
Free cash flow margin 16.8%[自测算：615.741 / 3,662.843，输入来自 S1] 16.0%[自测算] 18.1%[自测算] 18.6%[自测算]

联动校验表

联动关系 FY2027E FY2028E FY2029E 校验说明
Revenue = Product revenue + Subscription services revenue 4,460.0[自测算] 5,083.7[自测算] 5,688.9[自测算] 损益表收入拆分加总等于总收入。[自测算]
Gross profit = Revenue - Product cost - Subscription cost 3,078.6[自测算] 3,550.6[自测算] 4,003.9[自测算] 毛利由两类收入成本驱动。[自测算]
Income from operations = Gross profit - Total operating expenses 188.5[自测算] 358.1[自测算] 550.7[自测算] 经营利润由毛利减三项经营费用得出。[自测算]
Net income = Pre-tax income - Tax 212.0[自测算] 338.5[自测算] 488.6[自测算] 所得税按 A10 有效税率计算。[自测算]
Ending cash = Beginning cash + CFO + CFI + CFF 1,009.7[自测算] 1,279.9[自测算] 1,640.6[自测算] 现金流量表期末现金回填资产负债表现金。[自测算]
Total assets = Total liabilities + Stockholders' equity 5,148.1[自测算] 5,777.8[自测算] 6,488.3[自测算] 资产负债表通过 Stockholders' equity 剩余项平衡。[自测算]
Free cash flow = CFO - Capex 712.3[自测算] 920.2[自测算] 1,060.7[自测算] 自由现金流仅扣除 Purchases of property and equipment。[自测算]

情景解读

维度 模型结论
收入 FY2027E 总收入采用公司 FY27 新指引中点 4,460.0 百万美元；FY2028E 和 FY2029E 分别为 5,083.7 百万美元、5,688.9 百万美元，核心来自 Product revenue 与 Subscription services revenue 同时增长。[S2][自测算]
毛利率 模型假设 FY2027E 毛利率降至 69.0%，主要反映 FY27 Q1 GAAP gross margin 68.7%[S2]和产品毛利压力；FY2029E 恢复至 70.4%，接近 FY2026A 的 70.4%。[S1][自测算]
GAAP 盈利 GAAP operating margin 从 FY2026A 的 3.1%升至 FY2029E 的 9.7%，主要来自 R&D、Sales and marketing、G&A 费率下降。[S1][自测算]
现金流 Free cash flow 从 FY2026A 的 615.7 百万美元增至 FY2029E 的 1,060.7 百万美元，主要由收入增长、SBC 加回、递延收入和营运资本贡献驱动。[S1][自测算]
资产负债表 模型假设 P 维持净现金结构，Debt 保持 0.0，cash and cash equivalents 从 FY2026A 的 854.9 百万美元增至 FY2029E 的 1,640.6 百万美元。[S1][自测算]

资料来源 / Sources

[S1] SEC, Everpure, Inc. Annual Report on Form 10-K for fiscal year ended February 1, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1474432/000147443226000027/pstg-20260201.htm

[S2] SEC, Everpure Announces First Quarter Fiscal 2027 Financial Results, Exhibit 99.1 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1474432/000147443226000046/pstg-ex991q1fy2027xpressre.htm

[S3] Mordor Intelligence, Enterprise Flash Storage Market Size and Share — https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/enterprise-flash-storage-market