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STOCKS / ETFs
RKLBRocket Lab证据映射 · 26 · 99%IRDMIridium证据映射 · 12 · 99%

研究对象: RKLB

RKLB 三表模型

建模口径

项目 口径
预测期间 FY2026E、FY2027E、FY2028E 三年预测。[自测算]
历史基准 FY2025 收入 $601.799 million、毛利 $207.181 million、净亏损 -98.209 million、经营现金流 -65.521 million、购买 property, equipment and software -56.285 million。[S1]
最新桥接 2026Q1 收入 $200.348 million、毛利 $76.493 million、净亏损 -$45.022 million、期末现金及有价证券 ,476.845 million。[S2][自测算：1,205.499+177.852+93.494]
指引桥接 公司给出 2026Q2 revenue $225 million-$240 million、GAAP gross margin 33%-35%、GAAP operating expenses 38 million-44 million、adjusted EBITDA loss $20 million-$26 million、basic weighted average common shares 629 million 指引。[S3]
情景说明 基准情景不纳入 Iridium 完成并表；Iridium 交易披露 enterprise value approximately $8.0 billion、预计 mid-2027 closing、并有 $3.6 billion 364-day senior secured bridge term loan facility commitments，因此作为表外情景风险处理。[S6]
立场映射 本模型确认 th_p_375c8378 的收入和 backlog 升级，同时确认 th_p_75ee2d16 的负 FCF 与外部融资依赖；不改变 st_RKLB short · conviction high。[S1][S2][S3][S5][S6][自测算]

关键假设表

假设项 FY2026E FY2027E FY2028E 假设依据
关键假设：Launch Services 收入 $310.0 million [自测算：FY2025 Launch Services 99.042 million；2026Q1 Launch Services $63.7 million；H2 按 Electron/HASTE 频次与 Neutron 早期贡献外推] $420.0 million [自测算：FY2026E $310.0 million * 1.355] $570.0 million [自测算：FY2027E $420.0 million * 1.357] FY2025 Launch Services 收入 99.042 million；2026Q1 Launch Services 收入 $63.7 million；Q1 签下 31 个 Electron/HASTE 合同和 5 个 Neutron dedicated launches。[S1][S3]
关键假设：Space Systems 收入 $670.0 million [自测算：FY2025 Space Systems $402.757 million；2026Q1 Space Systems 36.7 million；Mynaric/Motiv 与国防项目增量外推] $860.0 million [自测算：FY2026E $670.0 million * 1.284] ,050.0 million [自测算：FY2027E $860.0 million * 1.221] FY2025 Space Systems 收入 $402.757 million；2026Q1 Space Systems 收入 36.7 million；Q1 backlog 超过 $2.2 billion。[S1][S3]
关键假设：总收入增速 +62.8% [自测算：$980.0 million / $601.799 million - 1] +30.6% [自测算：,280.0 million / $980.0 million - 1] +26.6% [自测算：,620.0 million / ,280.0 million - 1] 2026Q1 收入同比 +63.5%，2026Q2 指引中点为 $232.5 million。[S3][自测算：(225+240)/2]
关键假设：GAAP 毛利率 36.0% [自测算：介于 2026Q1 38.2% 与 2026Q2 指引 33%-35% 之间，考虑 Neutron/新项目爬坡] 38.0% [自测算：规模效应改善 2.0 pct] 40.0% [自测算：规模效应改善 2.0 pct] 2026Q1 GAAP gross margin 38.2%；2026Q2 GAAP gross margin 指引 33%-35%。[S3]
关键假设：研发费用 $330.0 million [自测算：FY2025 $270.716 million + Neutron/国防项目增量] $360.0 million [自测算：FY2026E $330.0 million + $30.0 million] $390.0 million [自测算：FY2027E $360.0 million + $30.0 million] FY2025 R&D $270.716 million；2026Q1 R&D $80.513 million。[S1][S2]
关键假设：销售、一般及行政费用 $230.0 million [自测算：FY2025 65.303 million + 并购整合/上市公司扩张增量] $280.0 million [自测算：FY2026E $230.0 million + $50.0 million] $330.0 million [自测算：FY2027E $280.0 million + $50.0 million] FY2025 SG&A 65.303 million；2026Q1 SG&A $51.949 million。[S1][S2]
关键假设：资本开支 $260.0 million [自测算：FY2025 capex -56.285 million * 1.664] $300.0 million [自测算：Neutron/Space Systems 产能继续投入] $320.0 million [自测算：产能投入放缓但仍高于 FY2025] FY2025 购买 property, equipment and software 为 -56.285 million；2026Q1 期末 PPE 为 $343.988 million，高于 FY2025 期末 $319.473 million。[S1][S2]
关键假设：外部融资净额 $700.0 million [自测算：Q1 融资现金流 $463.293 million + H2 追加融资假设] $300.0 million [自测算：ATM/债务/股权工具低于 FY2026E] 50.0 million [自测算：FCF 缺口缩小后的低融资假设] 2026Q1 融资现金流 $463.293 million；2026-05-20 ATM 规模 up to $3,000,000,000。[S2][S5]

利润表预测

项目 FY2025A FY2026E FY2027E FY2028E
Launch Services 收入 99.042 million [S1] $310.0 million [自测算：见关键假设表] $420.0 million [自测算：见关键假设表] $570.0 million [自测算：见关键假设表]
Space Systems 收入 $402.757 million [S1] $670.0 million [自测算：见关键假设表] $860.0 million [自测算：见关键假设表] ,050.0 million [自测算：见关键假设表]
总收入 $601.799 million [S1] $980.0 million [自测算：310.0+670.0] ,280.0 million [自测算：420.0+860.0] ,620.0 million [自测算：570.0+1,050.0]
收入成本 $394.618 million [S1] $627.2 million [自测算：980.0*(1-36.0%)] $793.6 million [自测算：1,280.0*(1-38.0%)] $972.0 million [自测算：1,620.0*(1-40.0%)]
毛利 $207.181 million [S1] $352.8 million [自测算：980.0*36.0%] $486.4 million [自测算：1,280.0*38.0%] $648.0 million [自测算：1,620.0*40.0%]
毛利率 34.4% [自测算：207.181/601.799；S1] 36.0% [自测算：352.8/980.0] 38.0% [自测算：486.4/1,280.0] 40.0% [自测算：648.0/1,620.0]
研发费用 $270.716 million [S1] $330.0 million [自测算：见关键假设表] $360.0 million [自测算：见关键假设表] $390.0 million [自测算：见关键假设表]
销售、一般及行政费用 65.303 million [S1] $230.0 million [自测算：见关键假设表] $280.0 million [自测算：见关键假设表] $330.0 million [自测算：见关键假设表]
经营利润 / 亏损 $228.838 million [S1] $207.2 million [自测算：352.8-330.0-230.0] 53.6 million [自测算：486.4-360.0-280.0] $72.0 million [自测算：648.0-390.0-330.0]
其他收入 / 费用净额 $2.941 million [S1] $20.0 million [自测算：现金收益率与剩余债务成本净额] 0.0 million [自测算：现金收益率下降与融资成本上升净额] $0.0 million [自测算：保守归零]
税前利润 / 亏损 $225.897 million [S1] 87.2 million [自测算：-207.2+20.0] 43.6 million [自测算：-153.6+10.0] $72.0 million [自测算：-72.0+0.0]
所得税收益 / 费用 $27.688 million [S1] $0.0 million [自测算：亏损期不确认新增税盾收益] $0.0 million [自测算：亏损期不确认新增税盾收益] $0.0 million [自测算：亏损期不确认新增税盾收益]
净利润 / 亏损 98.209 million [S1] 87.2 million [自测算：-187.2+0.0] 43.6 million [自测算：-143.6+0.0] $72.0 million [自测算：-72.0+0.0]
净利率 32.9% [自测算：-198.209/601.799；S1] 19.1% [自测算：-187.2/980.0] 11.2% [自测算：-143.6/1,280.0] 4.4% [自测算：-72.0/1,620.0]

资产负债表预测

项目 FY2025A FY2026E FY2027E FY2028E
现金及有价证券 ,098.824 million [S1] ,361.6 million [自测算：1,098.824-177.2-260.0+700.0] ,288.0 million [自测算：1,361.6-73.6-300.0+300.0] ,181.0 million [自测算：1,288.0+63.0-320.0+150.0]
应收账款净额 $39.001 million [S1] 20.0 million [自测算：FY2026E 收入 12.2%] 65.0 million [自测算：FY2027E 收入 12.9%] $215.0 million [自测算：FY2028E 收入 13.3%]
合同资产 $61.606 million [S1] $90.0 million [自测算：项目制收入增长] 15.0 million [自测算：项目制收入增长] 40.0 million [自测算：项目制收入增长]
存货 58.407 million [S1] $240.0 million [自测算：Launch/Space Systems 交付扩张] $300.0 million [自测算：交付扩张] $360.0 million [自测算：交付扩张]
其他流动资产 $89.953 million [S1] 05.0 million [自测算：收入扩张带动预付与其他流动资产] 25.0 million [自测算：收入扩张] 45.0 million [自测算：收入扩张]
流动资产合计 ,365.544 million [S1] ,916.6 million [自测算：1,361.6+120.0+90.0+240.0+105.0] ,993.0 million [自测算：1,288.0+165.0+115.0+300.0+125.0] $2,041.0 million [自测算：1,181.0+215.0+140.0+360.0+145.0]
固定资产净额 $319.473 million [S1] $530.0 million [自测算：FY2025 319.473 + capex 260.0 - 折旧摊销分摊约 49.5] $735.0 million [自测算：FY2026E 530.0 + capex 300.0 - 折旧摊销分摊约 95.0] $940.0 million [自测算：FY2027E 735.0 + capex 320.0 - 折旧摊销分摊约 115.0]
商誉及无形资产 $430.496 million [自测算：224.746+205.750；S1] $420.0 million [自测算：不纳入 Iridium，按摊销后小幅下降] $410.0 million [自测算：不纳入 Iridium，按摊销后小幅下降] $400.0 million [自测算：不纳入 Iridium，按摊销后小幅下降]
使用权资产及其他资产 26.718 million [自测算：90.371+13.895+4.885+1.895+15.672；S1] 30.0 million [自测算：租赁与其他资产基本稳定] 35.0 million [自测算：租赁与其他资产基本稳定] 40.0 million [自测算：租赁与其他资产基本稳定]
资产合计 $2,324.478 million [S1] $2,996.6 million [自测算：1,916.6+530.0+420.0+130.0] $3,273.0 million [自测算：1,993.0+735.0+410.0+135.0] $3,521.0 million [自测算：2,041.0+940.0+400.0+140.0]
应付账款 $72.699 million [S1] 00.0 million [自测算：收入成本扩张] 25.0 million [自测算：收入成本扩张] 45.0 million [自测算：收入成本扩张]
应计费用及员工薪酬 $45.102 million [自测算：19.299+25.803；S1] $90.0 million [自测算：研发与 SG&A 扩张] 10.0 million [自测算：研发与 SG&A 扩张] 25.0 million [自测算：研发与 SG&A 扩张]
合同负债 95.438 million [S1] $300.0 million [自测算：backlog 与预收款增长] $350.0 million [自测算：backlog 与预收款增长] $330.0 million [自测算：收入确认消耗部分预收款，仍高于 FY2025]
其他流动负债 $21.237 million [S1] $30.0 million [自测算：收入扩张] $35.0 million [自测算：收入扩张] $40.0 million [自测算：收入扩张]
流动负债合计 $334.476 million [S1] $520.0 million [自测算：100.0+90.0+300.0+30.0] $620.0 million [自测算：125.0+110.0+350.0+35.0] $640.0 million [自测算：145.0+125.0+330.0+40.0]
非流动负债合计 $268.148 million [自测算：602.624-334.476；S1] 31.9 million [自测算：资产合计 2,996.6 - 权益 2,344.7 - 流动负债 520.0] $21.9 million [自测算：资产合计 3,273.0 - 权益 2,631.1 - 流动负债 620.0] $26.9 million [自测算：资产合计 3,521.0 - 权益 2,854.1 - 流动负债 640.0]
负债合计 $602.624 million [S1] $651.9 million [自测算：520.0+131.9] $641.9 million [自测算：620.0+21.9] $666.9 million [自测算：640.0+26.9]
股东权益合计 ,721.854 million [S1] $2,344.7 million [自测算：1,721.854-187.2+700.0+110.0] $2,631.1 million [自测算：2,344.7-143.6+300.0+130.0] $2,854.1 million [自测算：2,631.1-72.0+150.0+145.0]
负债及权益合计 $2,324.478 million [S1] $2,996.6 million [自测算：651.9+2,344.7] $3,273.0 million [自测算：641.9+2,631.1] $3,521.0 million [自测算：666.9+2,854.1]

现金流量表预测

项目 FY2025A FY2026E FY2027E FY2028E
净利润 / 亏损 98.209 million [S1] 87.2 million [自测算：利润表净亏损] 43.6 million [自测算：利润表净亏损] $72.0 million [自测算：利润表净亏损]
折旧及摊销 $43.935 million [S1] $75.0 million [自测算：PPE 与无形资产扩张] $95.0 million [自测算：PPE 与无形资产扩张] 15.0 million [自测算：PPE 与无形资产扩张]
股权激励费用 $71.099 million [S1] 10.0 million [自测算：2026Q2 SBC 指引 9 million-$21 million 与全年扩张外推；S3] 30.0 million [自测算：员工与市值扩张] 45.0 million [自测算：员工与市值扩张]
其他非现金项目 $31.469 million [自测算：FY2025 经营现金流调节项中非现金项目余额；S1] $5.0 million [自测算：保守正常化] $5.0 million [自测算：保守正常化] $5.0 million [自测算：保守正常化]
营运资本变动 $50.877 million [自测算：FY2025 OCF - 净亏损 - 折旧摊销 - SBC - 其他非现金项目；S1] 80.0 million [自测算：应收、合同资产和存货随收入增长] 60.0 million [自测算：增长放缓但项目制占用仍高] 30.0 million [自测算：增长放缓且合同负债吸收部分占用]
经营现金流 65.521 million [S1] 77.2 million [自测算：-187.2+75.0+110.0+5.0-180.0] $73.6 million [自测算：-143.6+95.0+130.0+5.0-160.0] $63.0 million [自测算：-72.0+115.0+145.0+5.0-130.0]
资本开支 56.285 million [S1] $260.0 million [自测算：见关键假设表] $300.0 million [自测算：见关键假设表] $320.0 million [自测算：见关键假设表]
并购与其他投资净额 91.112 million [自测算：FY2025 投资现金流 - capex；S1] $0.0 million [自测算：基准情景不纳入 Iridium 完成并表] $0.0 million [自测算：基准情景不纳入 Iridium 完成并表] $0.0 million [自测算：基准情景不纳入 Iridium 完成并表]
投资现金流 $347.397 million [S1] $260.0 million [自测算：-260.0+0.0] $300.0 million [自测算：-300.0+0.0] $320.0 million [自测算：-320.0+0.0]
自由现金流 $321.806 million [自测算：-165.521-156.285；S1] $437.2 million [自测算：-177.2-260.0] $373.6 million [自测算：-73.6-300.0] $257.0 million [自测算：63.0-320.0]
融资现金流 ,071.271 million [S1] $700.0 million [自测算：见关键假设表] $300.0 million [自测算：见关键假设表] 50.0 million [自测算：见关键假设表]
现金及有价证券净变动 $619.148 million [自测算：FY2025 现金及有价证券 1,098.824 - FY2024 479.676；S1] $262.8 million [自测算：-177.2-260.0+700.0] $73.6 million [自测算：-73.6-300.0+300.0] 07.0 million [自测算：63.0-320.0+150.0]
期末现金及有价证券 ,098.824 million [S1] ,361.6 million [自测算：1,098.824+262.8] ,288.0 million [自测算：1,361.6-73.6] ,181.0 million [自测算：1,288.0-107.0]

模型读数

读数 结论
增长读数 FY2026E-FY2028E 收入从 $980.0 million 增至 ,620.0 million，模型确认 th_p_375c8378，但这是基于 backlog 和发射/空间系统交付继续顺利的自测算路径。[S2][S3][自测算]
盈利读数 FY2028E 经营亏损仍为 -$72.0 million，说明即使毛利率升至 40.0%，研发和 SG&A 仍会吸收大部分毛利。[自测算]
现金流读数 FY2026E-FY2028E 累计 FCF 为 -,067.8 million，继续确认 th_p_75ee2d16；该结论不改变 st_RKLB short · conviction high。[自测算：-437.2-373.6-257.0]
资产负债读数 期末现金及有价证券从 FY2025A ,098.824 million 变为 FY2028E ,181.0 million，但该缓冲依赖 FY2026E-FY2028E 累计融资现金流 ,150.0 million，而非内生 FCF。[S1][自测算：700.0+300.0+150.0]
主要反证 若 Neutron 可重复商业化、Space Systems 现金结算改善、OCF 早于 FY2028E 转正，或 Iridium 以低稀释/低杠杆方式完成并带来稳定现金 EBITDA，本模型对 th_p_75ee2d16 的确认度应下降。[S3][S6][自测算]

资料来源 / Sources

[S1] SEC, Rocket Lab Corporation Form 10-K for fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819994/000181999426000013/rklb-20251231.htm

[S2] SEC, Rocket Lab Corporation Form 10-Q for quarterly period ended March 31, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819994/000181999426000028/rklb-20260331.htm

[S3] Rocket Lab, Rocket Lab Announces First Quarter 2026 Financial Results: Surpasses All Guidance Metrics Including Revenue, Margin, and Adjusted EBITDA; Posts Record $200M Quarterly Revenue and over $2.2B Backlog; Guides Another Record Revenue — https://investors.rocketlabcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rocket-lab-announces-first-quarter-2026-financial-results

[S4] Rocket Lab, Rocket Lab Announces Date of Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results — https://investors.rocketlabcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rocket-lab-announces-date-second-quarter-2026-financial-results

[S5] SEC, Rocket Lab Corporation 424B5 Prospectus Supplement, May 20, 2026 — https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819994/000181999426000044/rocketlabcorporation-424b5.htm

[S6] Rocket Lab, Rocket Lab to Acquire Iridium in Historic Deal, Creating A Fully Vertically Integrated Space Powerhouse Primed for Growth — https://investors.rocketlabcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rocket-lab-acquire-iridium-historic-deal-creating-fully