研究对象: HK
HK 三表模型
建模口径
| 项目 | 口径 |
|---|---|
| 研究对象 | 仅覆盖 HK，披露主体为 AMTD Digital Inc.；ADS 在 New York Stock Exchange 交易，公开披露交易代码为 HKD[S1]。 |
| 历史基准 | 截至 fiscal year ended October 31, 2025 的 Form 20-F[S1]。 |
| 预测期 | FY2026E、FY2027E、FY2028E[自测算；输入：2025 财年截止日为 October 31, 2025[S1]，向后滚动 3 个财政年度]。 |
| 金额单位 | US$ million；除特别注明外不含每股数据[自测算]。 |
| 收入拆分 | 2025 年总收入 US36.099 million 中包含 Strategic investment 的 FVTPL 金融资产公允价值变动 US$77.059 million[S1]，因此预测期将合同客户收入、股息收入和 FVTPL 公允价值变动拆分建模[自测算]。 |
| 酒店增长依据 | 2026 年后酒店分部增长假设考虑 Tribeca Hotel US$69 million 收购完成[S2]、hospitality transactions aggregate consideration approximately US$328 million 的公告[S3]、Upper View Regalia Hotel US$38 million 收购完成[S4]、The Ritz-Carlton, Perth 50% 权益 US$72 million / A00 million 收购完成[S5]、Dao by Dorsett Hornsey Hotel approximately US$30 million 收购完成及 Hornsey Town Hall US$33 million 协议收购[S6]。 |
关键假设表
| 假设项 | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | 依据与说明 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital solutions services 收入增长率 | 0.0%[自测算] | 2.0%[自测算] | 3.0%[自测算] | 2025 分部收入仅 US$2.973 million[S1]，模型假设该分部不是主要增长引擎[自测算]。 |
| Media and entertainment services 收入增长率 | 20.0%[自测算] | 15.0%[自测算] | 10.0%[自测算] | 2025 分部收入 US9.104 million，主要来自 2024 年 10 月起并表 L'Officiel 与 The Art Newspaper 相关业务[S1]；模型假设并表后商业化继续增长但增速逐年回落[自测算]。 |
| Hotel operations, hospitality and VIP services 收入增长率 | 55.0%[自测算] | 30.0%[自测算] | 15.0%[自测算] | 2025 分部收入 US$27.994 million[S1]；2026 年新增酒店及物业交易包括 US$69 million Tribeca Hotel[S2]、US$38 million Upper View Regalia Hotel[S4]、US$72 million / A00 million The Ritz-Carlton, Perth 50% 权益[S5]、approximately US$30 million Dao by Dorsett Hornsey Hotel[S6]，模型假设 FY2026E 起分阶段贡献收入而非一次性满年入表[自测算]。 |
| Strategic investment 股息收入增长率 | 5.0%[自测算] | 4.0%[自测算] | 3.0%[自测算] | 2025 股息收入为 US$8.969 million[S1]；模型假设股息收入随投资组合温和增长[自测算]。 |
| FVTPL 公允价值变动 | US$30.000 million[自测算] | US$22.500 million[自测算] | US$20.000 million[自测算] | 2025 FVTPL 公允价值变动为 US$77.059 million[S1]；模型按归一化处理，避免把 2025 的高投资收益线性外推[自测算]。 |
| 披露成本 / 合同客户收入 | 43.0%[自测算] | 42.0%[自测算] | 41.0%[自测算] | 2025 cost of production and cost of hotel operation 为 US$20.267 million[S1]，合同客户收入为 US$50.071 million[S1]，2025 比率为 40.5%[自测算；输入：US$20.267 million[S1] / US$50.071 million[S1]]；模型因酒店资产占比提升而提高成本率[自测算]。 |
| 雇员福利 / 合同客户收入 | 26.0%[自测算] | 25.0%[自测算] | 24.0%[自测算] | 2025 employee benefits expense 为 US2.893 million[S1]，相当于合同客户收入的 25.7%[自测算；输入：US2.893 million[S1] / US$50.071 million[S1]]；模型假设规模化后比例小幅下降[自测算]。 |
| 折旧及摊销 | US2.000 million[自测算] | US5.500 million[自测算] | US7.000 million[自测算] | 2025 depreciation and amortization 为 US$9.491 million[S1]；模型按新增酒店资产及物业投入提高折旧摊销[自测算]。 |
| 财务费用 | US1.000 million[自测算] | US2.000 million[自测算] | US2.500 million[自测算] | 2025 finance costs 为 US0.317 million[S1]，2025 银行借款为 US$260.123 million[自测算；输入：current bank borrowings US$83.305 million[S1] + non-current bank borrowings US76.818 million[S1]]；模型假设 FY2026E 有新增借款支持资产扩张[自测算]。 |
| 其他经营费用 / 合同客户收入 | 15.0%[自测算] | 14.5%[自测算] | 14.0%[自测算] | 2025 other operating expenses 为 US$7.355 million[S1]，相当于合同客户收入的 14.7%[自测算；输入：US$7.355 million[S1] / US$50.071 million[S1]]；模型假设比例小幅下降[自测算]。 |
| 其他收入 | US8.000 million[自测算] | US6.000 million[自测算] | US5.000 million[自测算] | 2025 other income 为 US$21.775 million[S1]；模型按谨慎口径逐年下调[自测算]。 |
| 所得税率 | 2.0%[自测算] | 2.5%[自测算] | 2.5%[自测算] | 2025 income tax expense 为 US.682 million，profit before tax 为 US$98.673 million[S1]，有效税率为 1.7%[自测算；输入：US.682 million[S1] / US$98.673 million[S1]]；模型略高于 2025 实际税率[自测算]。 |
| 营运资金调整 | US$8.000 million[自测算] | US$5.000 million[自测算] | US$4.000 million[自测算] | 2026 年收入增长带来应收款和预付款占用，之后增速回落[自测算]。 |
| 收购及维护资本支出 | US$95.000 million[自测算] | US$20.000 million[自测算] | US5.000 million[自测算] | 2026 年公告 hospitality transactions aggregate consideration approximately US$328 million[S3]，但模型仅假设 HK 口径现金投入 US$95.000 million，以反映交割、权益比例、关联平台分担和非现金对价的不确定性[自测算]。 |
| 银行借款净增加 | US$45.000 million[自测算] | US$0.000 million[自测算] | US$0.000 million[自测算] | 2025 银行借款为 US$260.123 million[自测算]；模型以 FY2026E 新增借款支持酒店资产扩张，FY2027E-FY2028E 不再新增净借款[自测算]。 |
利润表预测
| 项目 | 2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital solutions services 收入 | US$2.973 million[S1] | US$2.973 million[自测算] | US$3.032 million[自测算] | US$3.123 million[自测算] |
| Media and entertainment services 收入 | US9.104 million[S1] | US$22.925 million[自测算] | US$26.364 million[自测算] | US$29.000 million[自测算] |
| Hotel operations, hospitality and VIP services 收入 | US$27.994 million[S1] | US$43.391 million[自测算] | US$56.408 million[自测算] | US$64.869 million[自测算] |
| 合同客户收入小计 | US$50.071 million[S1] | US$69.288 million[自测算] | US$85.804 million[自测算] | US$96.992 million[自测算] |
| Strategic investment 股息收入 | US$8.969 million[S1] | US$9.417 million[自测算] | US$9.794 million[自测算] | US0.088 million[自测算] |
| Strategic investment FVTPL 公允价值变动 | US$77.059 million[S1] | US$30.000 million[自测算] | US$22.500 million[自测算] | US$20.000 million[自测算] |
| 总收入 | US36.099 million[S1] | US08.706 million[自测算] | US18.098 million[自测算] | US27.080 million[自测算] |
| Cost of production and cost of hotel operation | US$20.267 million[S1] | US$29.794 million[自测算] | US$36.038 million[自测算] | US$39.767 million[自测算] |
| Employee benefits expense | US2.893 million[S1] | US8.015 million[自测算] | US$21.451 million[自测算] | US$23.278 million[自测算] |
| Depreciation and amortization | US$9.491 million[S1] | US2.000 million[自测算] | US5.500 million[自测算] | US7.000 million[自测算] |
| Finance costs | US0.317 million[S1] | US1.000 million[自测算] | US2.000 million[自测算] | US2.500 million[自测算] |
| Other operating expenses | US$7.355 million[S1] | US0.393 million[自测算] | US2.442 million[自测算] | US3.579 million[自测算] |
| Other income | US$21.775 million[S1] | US8.000 million[自测算] | US6.000 million[自测算] | US5.000 million[自测算] |
| Other gains | US.122 million[S1] | US$0.000 million[自测算] | US$0.000 million[自测算] | US$0.000 million[自测算] |
| 税前利润 | US$98.673 million[S1] | US$45.504 million[自测算] | US$36.668 million[自测算] | US$35.956 million[自测算] |
| Income tax expense | US.682 million[S1] | US$0.910 million[自测算] | US$0.917 million[自测算] | US$0.899 million[自测算] |
| 净利润 | US$96.991 million[S1] | US$44.594 million[自测算] | US$35.751 million[自测算] | US$35.057 million[自测算] |
| 净利率 | 71.27%[自测算；输入：US$96.991 million[S1] / US36.099 million[S1]] | 41.02%[自测算；输入：US$44.594 million / US08.706 million] | 30.27%[自测算；输入：US$35.751 million / US18.098 million] | 27.59%[自测算；输入：US$35.057 million / US27.080 million] |
资产负债表预测
| 项目 | 2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 现金及现金等价物 | US$46.363 million[S1] | US1.374 million[自测算] | US4.919 million[自测算] | US$30.065 million[自测算] |
| 应收账款及合同资产 | US1.834 million[S1] | US6.629 million[自测算] | US$20.593 million[自测算] | US$23.278 million[自测算] |
| 预付款及其他流动资产 | US$4.466 million[S1] | US$6.236 million[自测算] | US$7.722 million[自测算] | US$8.729 million[自测算] |
| 应收 AMTD Group 款项 | US$250.731 million[S1] | US$250.731 million[自测算] | US$250.731 million[自测算] | US$250.731 million[自测算] |
| FVTPL 金融资产 | US$229.519 million[自测算；输入：current financial assets at FVTPL US$7.987 million[S1] + non-current financial assets at FVTPL US$221.532 million[S1]] | US$259.519 million[自测算] | US$282.019 million[自测算] | US$302.019 million[自测算] |
| 物业、厂房及设备 | US$293.140 million[S1] | US$376.140 million[自测算] | US$380.640 million[自测算] | US$378.640 million[自测算] |
| 无形资产 | US19.311 million[S1] | US19.311 million[自测算] | US19.311 million[自测算] | US19.311 million[自测算] |
| 总资产 | US$955.364 million[S1] | US,039.940 million[自测算] | US,075.936 million[自测算] | US,112.773 million[自测算] |
| 应付账款 | US$5.486 million[S1] | US$8.044 million[自测算] | US$9.730 million[自测算] | US0.737 million[自测算] |
| 其他应付款及应计费用 | US$9.831 million[S1] | US0.831 million[自测算] | US1.831 million[自测算] | US2.831 million[自测算] |
| 银行借款 | US$260.123 million[自测算；输入：current bank borrowings US$83.305 million[S1] + non-current bank borrowings US76.818 million[S1]] | US$305.123 million[自测算] | US$305.123 million[自测算] | US$305.123 million[自测算] |
| 应付非控股股东款项 | US$64.197 million[S1] | US$64.197 million[自测算] | US$64.197 million[自测算] | US$64.197 million[自测算] |
| 合同负债 | US$0.664 million[S1] | US$0.831 million[自测算] | US.030 million[自测算] | US.164 million[自测算] |
| 应付所得税 | US$3.483 million[S1] | US$0.910 million[自测算] | US$0.917 million[自测算] | US$0.899 million[自测算] |
| 预计负债 | US$2.266 million[S1] | US$2.866 million[自测算] | US$3.466 million[自测算] | US$4.066 million[自测算] |
| 递延税项负债 | US$5.655 million[S1] | US$5.655 million[自测算] | US$5.655 million[自测算] | US$5.655 million[自测算] |
| 总负债 | US$351.705 million[S1] | US$398.458 million[自测算] | US$401.949 million[自测算] | US$404.672 million[自测算] |
| 总权益 | US$603.659 million[S1] | US$641.482 million[自测算] | US$673.987 million[自测算] | US$708.101 million[自测算] |
| 负债及权益合计 | US$955.364 million[S1] | US,039.940 million[自测算] | US,075.936 million[自测算] | US,112.773 million[自测算] |
| 资产负债表校验 | US$0.000 million[自测算] | US$0.000 million[自测算] | US$0.000 million[自测算] | US$0.000 million[自测算] |
现金流量表预测
| 项目 | 2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 税前利润 | US$98.673 million[S1] | US$45.504 million[自测算] | US$36.668 million[自测算] | US$35.956 million[自测算] |
| 折旧及摊销加回 | US$9.491 million[S1] | US2.000 million[自测算] | US5.500 million[自测算] | US7.000 million[自测算] |
| 财务费用加回 | US0.317 million[S1] | US1.000 million[自测算] | US2.000 million[自测算] | US2.500 million[自测算] |
| FVTPL 公允价值变动扣除 | US$77.059 million[S1] | US$30.000 million[自测算] | US$22.500 million[自测算] | US$20.000 million[自测算] |
| 其他收入及其他收益扣除 | US$22.897 million[自测算；输入：other income US$21.775 million[S1] + other gains US.122 million[S1]] | US8.000 million[自测算] | US6.000 million[自测算] | US5.000 million[自测算] |
| 营运资金调整 | US1.424 million[自测算；输入：2025 经营活动现金流 US4.388 million[S1] - 税前利润 US$98.673 million[S1] - 折旧及摊销 US$9.491 million[S1] - 财务费用 US0.317 million[S1] + FVTPL 公允价值变动 US$77.059 million[S1] + 其他收入及其他收益 US$22.897 million[自测算] - 股息收入 US$8.969 million[S1] + income tax expense US.682 million[S1]] | US$8.000 million[自测算] | US$5.000 million[自测算] | US$4.000 million[自测算] |
| 股息现金收款 | US$8.969 million[S1] | US$9.417 million[自测算] | US$9.794 million[自测算] | US0.088 million[自测算] |
| 所得税支付 | US.682 million[S1] | US$0.910 million[自测算] | US$0.917 million[自测算] | US$0.899 million[自测算] |
| 经营活动现金流 | US4.388 million[S1] | US$21.011 million[自测算] | US$29.545 million[自测算] | US$35.645 million[自测算] |
| 收购及维护资本支出 | US$43.195 million[自测算；输入：2025 购买无形资产 US$3.059 million[S1] + 购买物业、厂房及设备 US$40.136 million[S1]] | US$95.000 million[自测算] | US$20.000 million[自测算] | US5.000 million[自测算] |
| 利息及其他投资现金收款 | US.280 million[S1] | US$5.000 million[自测算] | US$6.000 million[自测算] | US$7.000 million[自测算] |
| 投资活动现金流 | US$95.876 million[S1] | US$90.000 million[自测算] | US4.000 million[自测算] | US$8.000 million[自测算] |
| 银行借款净增加 | US.894 million[自测算；输入：2025 proceeds from bank borrowings US$83.305 million[S1] - repayment of bank borrowings US$81.411 million[S1]] | US$45.000 million[自测算] | US$0.000 million[自测算] | US$0.000 million[自测算] |
| 财务费用支付 | US0.317 million[S1] | US1.000 million[自测算] | US2.000 million[自测算] | US2.500 million[自测算] |
| 其他融资现金流 | US$76.401 million[自测算；输入：2025 financing cash flow US$67.978 million[S1] - 银行借款净增加 US.894 million[自测算] + 财务费用支付 US0.317 million[S1]] | US$0.000 million[自测算] | US$0.000 million[自测算] | US$0.000 million[自测算] |
| 融资活动现金流 | US$67.978 million[S1] | US$34.000 million[自测算] | US2.000 million[自测算] | US2.500 million[自测算] |
| 汇率影响 | US$0.988 million[S1] | US$0.000 million[自测算] | US$0.000 million[自测算] | US$0.000 million[自测算] |
| 现金净变动 | US4.498 million[自测算；输入：US4.388 million[S1] + -US$95.876 million[S1] + US$67.978 million[S1] + -US$0.988 million[S1]] | US$34.989 million[自测算] | US$3.545 million[自测算] | US5.145 million[自测算] |
| 期初现金 | US$60.861 million[S1] | US$46.363 million[S1] | US1.374 million[自测算] | US4.919 million[自测算] |
| 期末现金 | US$46.363 million[S1] | US1.374 million[自测算] | US4.919 million[自测算] | US$30.065 million[自测算] |
联动校验与敏感点
| 校验项 | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | 说明 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 合同客户收入 | US$69.288 million[自测算] | US$85.804 million[自测算] | US$96.992 million[自测算] | 由 Digital solutions services、Media and entertainment services、Hotel operations, hospitality and VIP services 三项相加[自测算]。 |
| 总收入 | US08.706 million[自测算] | US18.098 million[自测算] | US27.080 million[自测算] | 合同客户收入 + Strategic investment 股息收入 + Strategic investment FVTPL 公允价值变动[自测算]。 |
| 经营活动现金流 / 净利润 | 47.12%[自测算；输入：US$21.011 million / US$44.594 million] | 82.64%[自测算；输入：US$29.545 million / US$35.751 million] | 101.68%[自测算；输入：US$35.645 million / US$35.057 million] | 2025 实际值为 14.83%[自测算；输入：US4.388 million[S1] / US$96.991 million[S1]]；预测期改善来自 FVTPL 收益归一化、酒店收入提升和营运资金占用放缓[自测算]。 |
| 银行借款 / 总资本 | 32.23%[自测算；输入：US$305.123 million / (US$305.123 million + US$641.482 million)] | 31.16%[自测算；输入：US$305.123 million / (US$305.123 million + US$673.987 million)] | 30.12%[自测算；输入：US$305.123 million / (US$305.123 million + US$708.101 million)] | 2025 实际值为 30.11%[自测算；输入：US$260.123 million / (US$260.123 million + US$603.659 million[S1])]；FY2026E 因新增借款上升，之后随留存收益下降[自测算]。 |
| FVTPL 公允价值变动 / 总收入 | 27.60%[自测算；输入：US$30.000 million / US08.706 million] | 19.05%[自测算；输入：US$22.500 million / US18.098 million] | 15.74%[自测算；输入：US$20.000 million / US27.080 million] | 2025 实际占比为 56.62%[自测算；输入：US$77.059 million[S1] / US36.099 million[S1]]；模型显式降低投资收益对收入的贡献[自测算]。 |
| 资产负债表是否平衡 | 是，差额 US$0.000 million[自测算] | 是，差额 US$0.000 million[自测算] | 是，差额 US$0.000 million[自测算] | 总资产 = 总负债 + 总权益[自测算]。 |
主要模型风险
| 风险项 | 对模型的影响 | 需要跟踪的披露 |
|---|---|---|
| FVTPL 公允价值变动波动 | 若 FY2026E-FY2028E 的 FVTPL 收益低于 US$30.000 million、US$22.500 million、US$20.000 million[自测算]，净利润会直接下修；若投资收益接近 2025 的 US$77.059 million[S1]，净利润会明显高于本模型[自测算]。 | Form 20-F、6-K 中的 financial assets at fair value through profit or loss 及 fair value changes[S1]。 |
| 酒店收购并表和回报率 | 模型假设 FY2026E 酒店收入增长 55.0%[自测算]，但实际贡献取决于交割日、权益比例、运营爬坡、改造支出和会计并表口径[自测算]。 | Tribeca Hotel、Upper View Regalia Hotel、The Ritz-Carlton Perth、Dao by Dorsett Hornsey Hotel、Hornsey Town Hall 的后续营收、入住率、ADR、RevPAR 或分部利润披露[S2][S4][S5][S6]。 |
| 关联方资金占用 | 2025 应收 AMTD Group 款项为 US$250.731 million[S1]，模型假设 FY2026E-FY2028E 不再新增应收 AMTD Group 款项[自测算]；若继续增加，将压低自由现金流并提高融资需求[自测算]。 | 资产负债表中的 amounts due from AMTD Group 及现金流中的 advances to AMTD Group[S1]。 |
| 融资成本和再融资 | 模型假设 FY2026E 银行借款净增加 US$45.000 million，FY2027E-FY2028E 不再新增净借款[自测算]；若收购支出超过模型的 US$95.000 million FY2026E 假设[自测算]，可能需要更高债务或股权融资[自测算]。 | 银行借款到期结构、利率、融资现金流、潜在股票或子公司层面融资[S1]。 |
资料来源 / Sources
| 标签 | 发布方 | 标题 | URL |
|---|---|---|---|
| [S1] | U.S. SEC | AMTD Digital Inc. Form 20-F for fiscal year ended October 31, 2025 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1809691/000121390026021555/ea0276786-20f_amtd.htm |
| [S2] | AMTD Digital Inc. | AMTD Digital's Subsidiary TGE Announces Successful Completion of Acquisition of the New York Tribeca Hotel at US$69 Million | https://ir.amtdigital.net/investor-news/investor-news-details/2026/AMTD-Digitals-Subsidiary-TGE-Announces-Successful-Completion-of-Acquisition-of-the-New-York-Tribeca-Hotel-at-US69-Million/default.aspx |
| [S3] | AMTD Digital Inc. | AMTD Provides Updates to Shareholders Regarding Positive Developments on the Expected Closing of Various Transactions Amounting to ~US$328 Million | https://ir.amtdigital.net/investor-news/investor-news-details/2026/AMTD-Provides-Updates-to-Shareholders-Regarding-Positive-Developments-on-the-Expected-Closing-of-Various-Transactions-Amounting-to-US328-Million/default.aspx |
| [S4] | AMTD Digital Inc. | AMTD's Successful Completion of Acquisition of Upper View Regalia Hotel in Malaysia for US$38 Million | https://ir.amtdigital.net/investor-news/investor-news-details/2026/AMTDs-Successful-Completion-of-Acquisition-of-Upper-View-Regalia-Hotel-in-Malaysia-for-US38-Million/default.aspx |
| [S5] | AMTD Digital Inc. | AMTD's Successful Completion of Acquisition of The Ritz-Carlton, Perth, Valued at A$280 Million | https://ir.amtdigital.net/investor-news/investor-news-details/2026/AMTDs-Successful-Completion-of-Acquisition-of-The-Ritz-Carlton-Perth-Valued-at-A280-Million/default.aspx |
| [S6] | StockTitan | AMTD Digital adds London hotel and office assets |HKD SEC Filing | https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/HKD/6-k-amtd-digital-inc-current-report-foreign-issuer-49e0911e265b.html |