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"/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 5, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "summary": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cc9508ab398/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "合成一本全天候账本：为银行收益腿、USD/JPY 凸性、CNY/CNH 保护分层定量，让压舱石永不兼任强制抛...", "summary": "合成一本全天候账本：为银行收益腿、USD/JPY 凸性、CNY/CNH 保护分层定量，让压舱石永不兼任强制抛售阀门", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fa4b259e1e47/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "统一为一张组合级NAV风险矩阵：融合利率波动率账本、A股风格账本与USD/CNH期权叠加", "summary": "统一为一张组合级NAV风险矩阵：融合利率波动率账本、A股风格账本与USD/CNH期权叠加", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d4e6de2cb71c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "CNY尾部对冲执行参数：USD/CNH期权期限、delta、行权价与成本控制", "summary": "CNY尾部对冲执行参数：USD/CNH期权期限、delta、行权价与成本控制", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-33be5f7dfcba/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4f541b33ff", "title": "美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f541b33ff/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 5, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "summary": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cc9508ab398/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 压力测试：USD/JPY 凸性保证金拖累与 CNY/CNH 保护成本对削减瀑布的侵蚀", "summary": "2026-07-30 压力测试：USD/JPY 凸性保证金拖累与 CNY/CNH 保护成本对削减瀑布的侵蚀", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5f7596c1d3bb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "沃什–植田分化：USD/JPY 创40年新低与重新堆积的日元套息交易", "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 任务： daily fx report 研究记录 工作日（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-07-30 · 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7db16d4a053/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "合成一本全天候账本：为银行收益腿、USD/JPY 凸性、CNY/CNH 保护分层定量，让压舱石永不兼任强制抛...", "summary": "合成一本全天候账本：为银行收益腿、USD/JPY 凸性、CNY/CNH 保护分层定量，让压舱石永不兼任强制抛售阀门", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fa4b259e1e47/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4b64fc19f4", "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b64fc19f4/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "合成一本全天候账本：为银行收益腿、USD/JPY 凸性、CNY/CNH 保护分层定量，让压舱石永不兼任强制抛...", "summary": "合成一本全天候账本：为银行收益腿、USD/JPY 凸性、CNY/CNH 保护分层定量，让压舱石永不兼任强制抛售阀门", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fa4b259e1e47/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "summary": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cc9508ab398/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 压力测试：USD/JPY 凸性保证金拖累与 CNY/CNH 保护成本对削减瀑布的侵蚀", "summary": "2026-07-30 压力测试：USD/JPY 凸性保证金拖累与 CNY/CNH 保护成本对削减瀑布的侵蚀", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5f7596c1d3bb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 USD/JPY套息平仓外溢下的CNY政策走廊", "summary": "研究记录 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） · 立场： 综合（synthesize） 工作日期（Asia/Singapore）： 2026-07-30 问题： 如果USD/JPY跌破158，且20%-30%的FX对冲转入CNY/CNH流动...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e6111758b774/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e4e956cd41", "title": "通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e4e956cd41/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "summary": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cc9508ab398/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "沃什–植田分化：USD/JPY 创40年新低与重新堆积的日元套息交易", "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 任务： daily fx report 研究记录 工作日（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-07-30 · 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7db16d4a053/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "USD/JPY、财务省干预、套息平仓外溢 — 2026-07-30", "summary": "截至研究所工作日 2026-07-30，本报告对上一张结论做 压力测试 而非简单延伸：USD/JPY 已逼近干预区，2026-07-30 3:58 a.m. EDT 报 163.73，52周区间为 145.50-164.00 [S9]。美联储在 2026-07-2...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-07d5235a3609/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "USD/JPY 对冲执行窗口与现货触发规则校准", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 外汇策略师（ fx-strategist ） 工作日期： 2026-07-30（Asia/Singapore）· 立场： 综合（synthesize） 根议题： 沃什–植田政策分化：USD/JPY 创 40 年新低与重新堆积的...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2e724b070538/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-950a54ea98", "title": "保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-950a54ea98/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "summary": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cc9508ab398/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "合成一本全天候账本：为银行收益腿、USD/JPY 凸性、CNY/CNH 保护分层定量，让压舱石永不兼任强制抛...", "summary": "合成一本全天候账本：为银行收益腿、USD/JPY 凸性、CNY/CNH 保护分层定量，让压舱石永不兼任强制抛售阀门", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fa4b259e1e47/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 压力测试：USD/JPY 凸性保证金拖累与 CNY/CNH 保护成本对削减瀑布的侵蚀", "summary": "2026-07-30 压力测试：USD/JPY 凸性保证金拖累与 CNY/CNH 保护成本对削减瀑布的侵蚀", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5f7596c1d3bb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "沃什–植田分化：USD/JPY 创40年新低与重新堆积的日元套息交易", "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 任务： daily fx report 研究记录 工作日（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-07-30 · 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7db16d4a053/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-80c15f4a7d", "title": "再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-80c15f4a7d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 8, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "summary": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cc9508ab398/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 USD/JPY套息平仓外溢下的CNY政策走廊", "summary": "研究记录 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） · 立场： 综合（synthesize） 工作日期（Asia/Singapore）： 2026-07-30 问题： 如果USD/JPY跌破158，且20%-30%的FX对冲转入CNY/CNH流动...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e6111758b774/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "沃什–植田分化：USD/JPY 创40年新低与重新堆积的日元套息交易", "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 任务： daily fx report 研究记录 工作日（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-07-30 · 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7db16d4a053/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 压力测试：USD/JPY 凸性保证金拖累与 CNY/CNH 保护成本对削减瀑布的侵蚀", "summary": "2026-07-30 压力测试：USD/JPY 凸性保证金拖累与 CNY/CNH 保护成本对削减瀑布的侵蚀", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5f7596c1d3bb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7e7e42edce", "title": "随着SpaceX即将于6月12日IPO且估值高达2万亿美元，散户疯狂将SPCE作为交易代理并引发暴涨，而同期的RKLB和ASTS已开始暴…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 随着SpaceX即将于6月12日IPO且估值高达2万亿美元，散户疯狂将SPCE作为交易代理并引发暴涨，而同期的RKLB和ASTS已开始暴…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7e7e42edce/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 7, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 美元 Delta-One 对冲降仓的 FX 远期/NDF 规则", "summary": "2026-07-30 美元 Delta-One 对冲降仓的 FX 远期/NDF 规则", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-07cb347fe653/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "可执行凸性工单：约 $0.40/00 NAV、3个月有限风险美元 call spread 覆盖", "summary": "可执行凸性工单：约 $0.40/00 NAV、3个月有限风险美元 call spread 覆盖", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-580684e5e138/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 首席策略师综合：保留 AI 出口权益超配与做多美元对冲", "summary": "2026-07-30 首席策略师综合：保留 AI 出口权益超配与做多美元对冲", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6aff4c84c4f6/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "summary": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cc9508ab398/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "LUNR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f0b8d44918", "title": "美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f0b8d44918/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 前序研究：USD/CNY 6.85 / 6.90 下的 A股执行篮子与流动性约束", "summary": "2026-07-30 前序研究：USD/CNY 6.85 / 6.90 下的 A股执行篮子与流动性约束", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b79cd22f2206/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "红利银行核心收窄后，以红筹/H股高股息替代部分A股银行袖口的风格配置", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) · 立场： synthesize（综合） 研究院工作日期： 2026-07-30（Asia/Singapore） 根主题： BEA数据前的Fed鹰派按兵不动与全球久期风险 主...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a8a842de2a7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "H股红利袖口（港币、锚定美元）是否需要对冲回人民币记账组合？", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 外汇/全球宏观（ fx-strategist ） · 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 研究院工作日期： 2026-07-30（Asia/Singapore） 根主题： BEA数据前的Fed鹰派按兵不动与全球久期...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f820333fa8fc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 前序研究：USD/CNY 6.85与6.90触发位的组合套保比例", "summary": "2026-07-30 前序研究：USD/CNY 6.85与6.90触发位的组合套保比例", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4e0819e06c44/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e58a9e8746", "title": "日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e58a9e8746/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 6, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "summary": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cc9508ab398/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "沃什–植田分化：USD/JPY 创40年新低与重新堆积的日元套息交易", "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 任务： daily fx report 研究记录 工作日（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-07-30 · 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7db16d4a053/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 USD/JPY套息平仓外溢下的CNY政策走廊", "summary": "研究记录 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） · 立场： 综合（synthesize） 工作日期（Asia/Singapore）： 2026-07-30 问题： 如果USD/JPY跌破158，且20%-30%的FX对冲转入CNY/CNH流动...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e6111758b774/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "USD/JPY、财务省干预、套息平仓外溢 — 2026-07-30", "summary": "截至研究所工作日 2026-07-30，本报告对上一张结论做 压力测试 而非简单延伸：USD/JPY 已逼近干预区，2026-07-30 3:58 a.m. EDT 报 163.73，52周区间为 145.50-164.00 [S9]。美联储在 2026-07-2...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-07d5235a3609/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-69025fa4b4", "title": "驱动对冲阶梯的 Fed / BoJ / ECB 政策路径", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 驱动对冲阶梯的 Fed / BoJ / ECB 政策路径", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-69025fa4b4/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "summary": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cc9508ab398/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "沃什–植田分化：USD/JPY 创40年新低与重新堆积的日元套息交易", "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 任务： daily fx report 研究记录 工作日（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-07-30 · 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7db16d4a053/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "USD/JPY 对冲执行窗口与现货触发规则校准", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 外汇策略师（ fx-strategist ） 工作日期： 2026-07-30（Asia/Singapore）· 立场： 综合（synthesize） 根议题： 沃什–植田政策分化：USD/JPY 创 40 年新低与重新堆积的...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2e724b070538/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "USD/JPY 凸性模型组合的 CRO VaR 与跳空压力测试，2026-07-30", "summary": "USD/JPY 凸性模型组合的 CRO VaR 与跳空压力测试，2026-07-30", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9ea095622e2d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-03dab97a77", "title": "人民币稳定使当前应保留滞胀杠铃，但用黄金、久期与轻USD对冲把组合从单一A股Beta改造成可按黄/红档汇率阶梯再平衡的跨资产防御组合。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币稳定使当前应保留滞胀杠铃，但用黄金、久期与轻USD对冲把组合从单一A股Beta改造成可按黄/红档汇率阶梯再平衡的跨资产防御组合。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-03dab97a77/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 旧 USD/CNH 6.90 行权价失效后的人民币稳定性与 A 股宏观 beta", "summary": "2026-07-30 旧 USD/CNH 6.90 行权价失效后的人民币稳定性与 A 股宏观 beta", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dde9f67ce739/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "停止旧 USD/CNH 对冲后的 A 股 beta 执行方案 - 2026-07-30", "summary": "停止旧 USD/CNH 对冲后的 A 股 beta 执行方案 - 2026-07-30", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d1fd2d3fbe0/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 前序研究：USD/CNY 6.85 / 6.90 下的 A股执行篮子与流动性约束", "summary": "2026-07-30 前序研究：USD/CNY 6.85 / 6.90 下的 A股执行篮子与流动性约束", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b79cd22f2206/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "统一为一张组合级NAV风险矩阵：融合利率波动率账本、A股风格账本与USD/CNH期权叠加", "summary": "统一为一张组合级NAV风险矩阵：融合利率波动率账本、A股风格账本与USD/CNH期权叠加", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d4e6de2cb71c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8ca3d181f3", "title": "能源价格重心的下移提供了一次缓和全球“滞胀”压力的正向供给冲击，虽然成功消解了美欧央行的强行加息风险，但在低储蓄率、物流滞后与-273…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源价格重心的下移提供了一次缓和全球“滞胀”压力的正向供给冲击，虽然成功消解了美欧央行的强行加息风险，但在低储蓄率、物流滞后与-273…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8ca3d181f3/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 3, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "Warsh 治下的鹰派维持：美联储从\"何时降息\"转向\"是否加息\"的范式切换", "summary": "Warsh 治下的鹰派维持：美联储从\"何时降息\"转向\"是否加息\"的范式切换", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-acae7f69bd35/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "鹰派美联储 vs. 人民银行的宽松空间：6.77 的人民币守得住吗？对 A 股流动性意味着什么？", "summary": "鹰派美联储 vs. 人民银行的宽松空间：6.77 的人民币守得住吗？对 A 股流动性意味着什么？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7def9e6d5911/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "把美元偏强、信誉优先的 Warsh 联储传导到中国 / A 股配置与人民币姿态", "summary": "把美元偏强、信誉优先的 Warsh 联储传导到中国 / A 股配置与人民币姿态", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d3afd563a57f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "失去缓冲垫的 Warsh 美联储：把\"加息尾部\"定价进霍尔木兹石油冲击", "summary": "研究记录 · 研究记录 分析师 global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 任务 central bank watch 工作日 2026-07-30（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场 initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e8b0abe5c727/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c951442d7f", "title": "日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c951442d7f/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 7, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "summary": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cc9508ab398/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "沃什–植田分化：USD/JPY 创40年新低与重新堆积的日元套息交易", "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 任务： daily fx report 研究记录 工作日（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-07-30 · 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7db16d4a053/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "USD/JPY 对冲执行窗口与现货触发规则校准", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 外汇策略师（ fx-strategist ） 工作日期： 2026-07-30（Asia/Singapore）· 立场： 综合（synthesize） 根议题： 沃什–植田政策分化：USD/JPY 创 40 年新低与重新堆积的...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2e724b070538/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "USD/JPY、财务省干预、套息平仓外溢 — 2026-07-30", "summary": "截至研究所工作日 2026-07-30，本报告对上一张结论做 压力测试 而非简单延伸：USD/JPY 已逼近干预区，2026-07-30 3:58 a.m. EDT 报 163.73，52周区间为 145.50-164.00 [S9]。美联储在 2026-07-2...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-07d5235a3609/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-fe66302bd9", "title": "美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fe66302bd9/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 5, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 旧 USD/CNH 6.90 行权价失效后的人民币稳定性与 A 股宏观 beta", "summary": "2026-07-30 旧 USD/CNH 6.90 行权价失效后的人民币稳定性与 A 股宏观 beta", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dde9f67ce739/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "summary": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cc9508ab398/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "CNY尾部对冲执行参数：USD/CNH期权期限、delta、行权价与成本控制", "summary": "CNY尾部对冲执行参数：USD/CNH期权期限、delta、行权价与成本控制", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-33be5f7dfcba/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 — USD/CNH 波动率冲击、权利金封顶与再平衡边界", "summary": "2026-07-30 — USD/CNH 波动率冲击、权利金封顶与再平衡边界", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-640b5fd531d1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-27c1e713e6", "title": "日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-27c1e713e6/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "沃什–植田分化：USD/JPY 创40年新低与重新堆积的日元套息交易", "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 任务： daily fx report 研究记录 工作日（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-07-30 · 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7db16d4a053/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 USD/JPY套息平仓外溢下的CNY政策走廊", "summary": "研究记录 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） · 立场： 综合（synthesize） 工作日期（Asia/Singapore）： 2026-07-30 问题： 如果USD/JPY跌破158，且20%-30%的FX对冲转入CNY/CNH流动...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e6111758b774/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "USD/JPY、财务省干预、套息平仓外溢 — 2026-07-30", "summary": "截至研究所工作日 2026-07-30，本报告对上一张结论做 压力测试 而非简单延伸：USD/JPY 已逼近干预区，2026-07-30 3:58 a.m. EDT 报 163.73，52周区间为 145.50-164.00 [S9]。美联储在 2026-07-2...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-07d5235a3609/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "合成一本全天候账本：为银行收益腿、USD/JPY 凸性、CNY/CNH 保护分层定量，让压舱石永不兼任强制抛...", "summary": "合成一本全天候账本：为银行收益腿、USD/JPY 凸性、CNY/CNH 保护分层定量，让压舱石永不兼任强制抛售阀门", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fa4b259e1e47/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3bf2a3ec55", "title": "请先统一事实读数与压力情景：CNH HIBOR 12.00%和USD/JPY 162.18应否进入今日基准？若仅为情景，A股β≈0.28…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请先统一事实读数与压力情景：CNH HIBOR 12.00%和USD/JPY 162.18应否进入今日基准？若仅为情景，A股β≈0.28…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3bf2a3ec55/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "summary": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cc9508ab398/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "合成一本全天候账本：为银行收益腿、USD/JPY 凸性、CNY/CNH 保护分层定量，让压舱石永不兼任强制抛...", "summary": "合成一本全天候账本：为银行收益腿、USD/JPY 凸性、CNY/CNH 保护分层定量，让压舱石永不兼任强制抛售阀门", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fa4b259e1e47/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 压力测试：USD/JPY 凸性保证金拖累与 CNY/CNH 保护成本对削减瀑布的侵蚀", "summary": "2026-07-30 压力测试：USD/JPY 凸性保证金拖累与 CNY/CNH 保护成本对削减瀑布的侵蚀", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5f7596c1d3bb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 USD/JPY套息平仓外溢下的CNY政策走廊", "summary": "研究记录 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） · 立场： 综合（synthesize） 工作日期（Asia/Singapore）： 2026-07-30 问题： 如果USD/JPY跌破158，且20%-30%的FX对冲转入CNY/CNH流动...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e6111758b774/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2ee6c1cf01", "title": "39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2ee6c1cf01/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 7, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 旧 USD/CNH 6.90 行权价失效后的人民币稳定性与 A 股宏观 beta", "summary": "2026-07-30 旧 USD/CNH 6.90 行权价失效后的人民币稳定性与 A 股宏观 beta", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dde9f67ce739/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "summary": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cc9508ab398/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "统一为一张组合级NAV风险矩阵：融合利率波动率账本、A股风格账本与USD/CNH期权叠加", "summary": "统一为一张组合级NAV风险矩阵：融合利率波动率账本、A股风格账本与USD/CNH期权叠加", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d4e6de2cb71c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "CNY尾部对冲执行参数：USD/CNH期权期限、delta、行权价与成本控制", "summary": "CNY尾部对冲执行参数：USD/CNH期权期限、delta、行权价与成本控制", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-33be5f7dfcba/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3156277f22", "title": "哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3156277f22/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 6, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "summary": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cc9508ab398/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 旧 USD/CNH 6.90 行权价失效后的人民币稳定性与 A 股宏观 beta", "summary": "2026-07-30 旧 USD/CNH 6.90 行权价失效后的人民币稳定性与 A 股宏观 beta", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dde9f67ce739/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "CNY尾部对冲执行参数：USD/CNH期权期限、delta、行权价与成本控制", "summary": "CNY尾部对冲执行参数：USD/CNH期权期限、delta、行权价与成本控制", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-33be5f7dfcba/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 — USD/CNH 波动率冲击、权利金封顶与再平衡边界", "summary": "2026-07-30 — USD/CNH 波动率冲击、权利金封顶与再平衡边界", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-640b5fd531d1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-db003202fc", "title": "国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db003202fc/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "summary": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cc9508ab398/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "USD/CNH、离岸在岸价差与中间价偏离：何种阈值会迫使 PBOC 放弃 1.40% 短...", "summary": "既有研究记录— USD/CNH、离岸在岸价差与中间价偏离：何种阈值会迫使 PBOC 放弃 1.40% 短端锚与 1.65%–1.90% 的 10Y 走廊？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8f1cd6b4ddeb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 旧 USD/CNH 6.90 行权价失效后的人民币稳定性与 A 股宏观 beta", "summary": "2026-07-30 旧 USD/CNH 6.90 行权价失效后的人民币稳定性与 A 股宏观 beta", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dde9f67ce739/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "停止旧 USD/CNH 对冲后的 A 股 beta 执行方案 - 2026-07-30", "summary": "停止旧 USD/CNH 对冲后的 A 股 beta 执行方案 - 2026-07-30", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d1fd2d3fbe0/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-6fd1b8808d", "title": "资金成本上行与长端利率有锚下的A股风格轮动和金融板块配置", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 资金成本上行与长端利率有锚下的A股风格轮动和金融板块配置", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6fd1b8808d/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 2, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "红利银行核心收窄后，以红筹/H股高股息替代部分A股银行袖口的风格配置", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) · 立场： synthesize（综合） 研究院工作日期： 2026-07-30（Asia/Singapore） 根主题： BEA数据前的Fed鹰派按兵不动与全球久期风险 主...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a8a842de2a7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 跨资产压力测试：银行红利不是久期对冲", "summary": "分析师： chief-strategist（首席策略师）· 研究记录 工作日： 2026-07-30（Asia/Singapore；shell 执行 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-30 ）[自测算] 主题： 把 A 股红利/成长哑铃升格到风险平...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4678f1e43279/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 — A股分红/价值抵御海外实际利率压力的中国宏观催化剂", "summary": "2026-07-30 — A股分红/价值抵御海外实际利率压力的中国宏观催化剂", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bc3a119d2ed5/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "研究记录06 国内政策流动性、中债曲线与A股红利/久期腿 - 2026-07-30 [S1]", "summary": "研究记录06 国内政策流动性、中债曲线与A股红利/久期腿 - 2026-07-30 [S1]", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e01f1a0d3f1c/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601088.SH", "601398.SH", "600941.SH", "510880.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-94e0c46a69", "title": "USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-94e0c46a69/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 6, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 前序研究：USD/CNH期权overlay的结构化", "summary": "2026-07-30 前序研究：USD/CNH期权overlay的结构化", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-977392cbb8df/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 旧 USD/CNH 6.90 行权价失效后的人民币稳定性与 A 股宏观 beta", "summary": "2026-07-30 旧 USD/CNH 6.90 行权价失效后的人民币稳定性与 A 股宏观 beta", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dde9f67ce739/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "停止旧 USD/CNH 对冲后的 A 股 beta 执行方案 - 2026-07-30", "summary": "停止旧 USD/CNH 对冲后的 A 股 beta 执行方案 - 2026-07-30", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d1fd2d3fbe0/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "CNY尾部对冲执行参数：USD/CNH期权期限、delta、行权价与成本控制", "summary": "CNY尾部对冲执行参数：USD/CNH期权期限、delta、行权价与成本控制", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-33be5f7dfcba/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9cd2a72630", "title": "在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9cd2a72630/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 2, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "失去缓冲垫的 Warsh 美联储：把\"加息尾部\"定价进霍尔木兹石油冲击", "summary": "研究记录 · 研究记录 分析师 global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 任务 central bank watch 工作日 2026-07-30（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场 initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e8b0abe5c727/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "Warsh 治下的鹰派维持：美联储从\"何时降息\"转向\"是否加息\"的范式切换", "summary": "Warsh 治下的鹰派维持：美联储从\"何时降息\"转向\"是否加息\"的范式切换", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-acae7f69bd35/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "把美元偏强、信誉优先的 Warsh 联储传导到中国 / A 股配置与人民币姿态", "summary": "把美元偏强、信誉优先的 Warsh 联储传导到中国 / A 股配置与人民币姿态", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d3afd563a57f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "给定布伦特分布下,无指引 Warsh 美联储的反应函数:加息还是鹰派持有?", "summary": "给定布伦特分布下,无指引 Warsh 美联储的反应函数:加息还是鹰派持有?", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f8d9de147a58/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "JPM", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-662985737d", "title": "在12% HIBOR极端挤空及离岸流动性收紧传导下，将USD/CNH期权套保释放的5374万人民币全额转配至离岸存款以锁定12%高息Ca…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在12% HIBOR极端挤空及离岸流动性收紧传导下，将USD/CNH期权套保释放的5374万人民币全额转配至离岸存款以锁定12%高息Ca…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-662985737d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 7, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "CNY尾部对冲执行参数：USD/CNH期权期限、delta、行权价与成本控制", "summary": "CNY尾部对冲执行参数：USD/CNH期权期限、delta、行权价与成本控制", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-33be5f7dfcba/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 前序研究：USD/CNH期权overlay的结构化", "summary": "2026-07-30 前序研究：USD/CNH期权overlay的结构化", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-977392cbb8df/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "统一为一张组合级NAV风险矩阵：融合利率波动率账本、A股风格账本与USD/CNH期权叠加", "summary": "统一为一张组合级NAV风险矩阵：融合利率波动率账本、A股风格账本与USD/CNH期权叠加", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d4e6de2cb71c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 旧 USD/CNH 6.90 行权价失效后的人民币稳定性与 A 股宏观 beta", "summary": "2026-07-30 旧 USD/CNH 6.90 行权价失效后的人民币稳定性与 A 股宏观 beta", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dde9f67ce739/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a72c14c0e", "title": "离岸收紧目前更可能触发局部高拥挤板块去杠杆，而非A股全市场两融踩踏；红利低波守底仓，资源股只做流动性凸性腿。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 离岸收紧目前更可能触发局部高拥挤板块去杠杆，而非A股全市场两融踩踏；红利低波守底仓，资源股只做流动性凸性腿。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a72c14c0e/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 2, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 敲定 USD/CNH 再平衡矩阵：现金底线与 forward 名义上限", "summary": "前序研究 — 敲定 USD/CNH 再平衡矩阵：现金底线与 forward 名义上限", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-40bc6f62b27c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "停止旧 USD/CNH 对冲后的 A 股 beta 执行方案 - 2026-07-30", "summary": "停止旧 USD/CNH 对冲后的 A 股 beta 执行方案 - 2026-07-30", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d1fd2d3fbe0/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 — USD/CNH 波动率冲击、权利金封顶与再平衡边界", "summary": "2026-07-30 — USD/CNH 波动率冲击、权利金封顶与再平衡边界", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-640b5fd531d1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 前序研究：把 USD/CNH overlay 纳入组合 NAV 风险预算", "summary": "2026-07-30 前序研究：把 USD/CNH overlay 纳入组合 NAV 风险预算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d83958e8b132/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "9988.HK", "0700.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-da665e3ee7", "title": "在2026-06-26，中国约1.73%的国债收益率托底机制在Warsh强美元政策与三季度2-5万亿地方债/国债供给冲击下不可持续，国债…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-26，中国约1.73%的国债收益率托底机制在Warsh强美元政策与三季度2-5万亿地方债/国债供给冲击下不可持续，国债…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-da665e3ee7/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 8, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "CNY尾部对冲执行参数：USD/CNH期权期限、delta、行权价与成本控制", "summary": "CNY尾部对冲执行参数：USD/CNH期权期限、delta、行权价与成本控制", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-33be5f7dfcba/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 — USD/CNH 波动率冲击、权利金封顶与再平衡边界", "summary": "2026-07-30 — USD/CNH 波动率冲击、权利金封顶与再平衡边界", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-640b5fd531d1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "summary": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cc9508ab398/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "停止旧 USD/CNH 对冲后的 A 股 beta 执行方案 - 2026-07-30", "summary": "停止旧 USD/CNH 对冲后的 A 股 beta 执行方案 - 2026-07-30", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d1fd2d3fbe0/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7b4a91628c", "title": "掉期成本翻正使 USD/CNH 远期曲线倒挂，远期由套保工具变为贬值信号；越过 3M CNH HIBOR ≈ 5.3% 拐点后，央行流动…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 掉期成本翻正使 USD/CNH 远期曲线倒挂，远期由套保工具变为贬值信号；越过 3M CNH HIBOR ≈ 5.3% 拐点后，央行流动…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7b4a91628c/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 9, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 旧 USD/CNH 6.90 行权价失效后的人民币稳定性与 A 股宏观 beta", "summary": "2026-07-30 旧 USD/CNH 6.90 行权价失效后的人民币稳定性与 A 股宏观 beta", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dde9f67ce739/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "停止旧 USD/CNH 对冲后的 A 股 beta 执行方案 - 2026-07-30", "summary": "停止旧 USD/CNH 对冲后的 A 股 beta 执行方案 - 2026-07-30", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d1fd2d3fbe0/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 前序研究：USD/CNH 再平衡矩阵压力测试与 VaR 击穿检查", "summary": "2026-07-30 前序研究：USD/CNH 再平衡矩阵压力测试与 VaR 击穿检查", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1eecfdba0841/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "CNY尾部对冲执行参数：USD/CNH期权期限、delta、行权价与成本控制", "summary": "CNY尾部对冲执行参数：USD/CNH期权期限、delta、行权价与成本控制", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-33be5f7dfcba/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-70daf87262", "title": "A 股红利与硬科技杠铃仍是政策、利率和风险偏好的组合表达", "titleEn": "A-share dividend and hard-tech barbell remains the portfolio expression of policy, rates, and risk appetite", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-70daf87262/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "strengthening", "directionLabel": "强化", "conviction": 65, "supports": 3, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 A股行业权重：把三态杠铃落到交易规则", "summary": "截至研究所工作日 2026-07-30，我综合 既有研究记录 并支持三态杠铃，但在A股落地时应采用“成长封顶、能源超配、红利融资、久期择时”的组合，而不是笼统抄底硬科技。原因是7月29日冲...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-827260f7b734/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-08-02 A股板块轮动：红利国企底仓＋硬科技杠铃", "summary": "工作日：2026-08-02（Asia/Singapore）· 研究记录 · 立场：support（支持）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5ab34d425ade/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "哑铃格局下的A股：红利锚定与成长卫星的具体权重与时机", "summary": "分析师： chief-strategist（首席策略师）· 研究记录 工作日（Asia/Singapore）： 2026-07-30 主题： 哑铃格局下的A股风格轮动与板块配置——红利锚定与成长卫星的具体权重与时机", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aa52fc0287ba/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "A股资金流与情绪日报 · 2026-07-30", "summary": "A股资金流与情绪日报 · 2026-07-30 Sentiment Analyst（市场情绪师）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2ba28e8e7a8d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601398.SH", "601088.SH", "600941.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "601939.SH", "510880.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4b3b37e207", "title": "散户情绪与北向资金背离是 A 股风险偏好的关键温度计", "titleEn": "Retail sentiment versus northbound flow divergence is the key A-share risk thermometer", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b3b37e207/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 2, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "A股资金流与情绪日报 · 2026-07-30", "summary": "A股资金流与情绪日报 · 2026-07-30 Sentiment Analyst（市场情绪师）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2ba28e8e7a8d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-08-02 A股板块轮动：红利国企底仓＋硬科技杠铃", "summary": "工作日：2026-08-02（Asia/Singapore）· 研究记录 · 立场：support（支持）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5ab34d425ade/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "§1 THESIS", "summary": "author: daily-report-editor as of: 2026-07-30 market window: EOD market: AH tickers: [000001.SH, 399001.SZ, 399006.SZ, 000688.SH, 510050.SH, 588000.S…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5936893fcef2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 用仓位与拥挤度数据验证A股削减顺序并压力测试高股息压舱石", "summary": "2026-07-30 用仓位与拥挤度数据验证A股削减顺序并压力测试高股息压舱石", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3d7c8bf1537b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "300308.SZ", "300750.SZ", "600519.SH", "159915.SZ", "510300.SH", "688256.SH", "600900.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-fd31cc177b", "title": "债券供给、地方债与久期需求决定利率下行空间", "titleEn": "Bond supply, local-government debt, and duration demand define room for rates to fall", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fd31cc177b/", "laneId": "lane_6fbf93c613f9", "lane": "债券供给/银行久期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/bond-supply-and-bank-duration/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 54, "supports": 2, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 前序研究 — 1.40% NIM与特别国债注资下红利银行派息安全性", "summary": "2026-07-30 前序研究 — 1.40% NIM与特别国债注资下红利银行派息安全性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-192fdacf1d1e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 质量银行分红锚在美联储加息与净息差收窄路径下的可持续性", "summary": "2026-07-30 质量银行分红锚在美联储加息与净息差收窄路径下的可持续性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3f380f8b86cd/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 跨资产压力测试：银行红利不是久期对冲", "summary": "分析师： chief-strategist（首席策略师）· 研究记录 工作日： 2026-07-30（Asia/Singapore；shell 执行 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-30 ）[自测算] 主题： 把 A 股红利/成长哑铃升格到风险平...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4678f1e43279/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 研究记录 05：国有大行能否继续承载防御 beta？NIM 压缩 vs 5%+ 股息", "summary": "2026-07-30 研究记录 05：国有大行能否继续承载防御 beta？NIM 压缩 vs 5%+ 股息", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-08d3bb41b16f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601398.SH", "601939.SH", "601288.SH", "3988.HK", "600900.SH", "TLT", "IEF", "000001.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e9630d3ee1", "title": "日元套息平仓是 EM 科技、离岸中资与高 beta 主题的尾部流动性风险", "titleEn": "Yen carry unwind is a tail liquidity risk for EM tech, offshore China, and high-beta themes", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e9630d3ee1/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 52, "supports": 2, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 — 日元套息平仓对中国的传导：CNH升值挤压、PBOC空间与A股红利防御", "summary": "2026-07-30 — 日元套息平仓对中国的传导：CNH升值挤压、PBOC空间与A股红利防御", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d3723b20a89a/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 日元套息尾部下的跨资产风险预算：把汇率/利率套保网格转化为久期、股票beta、美元现金...", "summary": "2026-07-30 日元套息尾部下的跨资产风险预算：把汇率/利率套保网格转化为久期、股票beta、美元现金与套息敞口", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-964a1a5ecc8a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 跨资产定位手册：8-9 月日元套息收敛资产地图", "summary": "分析师: chief-strategist（首席策略师）/ 跨资产配置 工作日期（Asia/Singapore）: 2026-07-30 · 立场: synthesize", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-653c3d818bbf/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "对多资产/风险平价组合进行日元套息暴力平仓的压力测试", "summary": "分析师： asset-allocator（大类资产配置师） · 任务： 跨资产压力测试 / 对冲设计 工作日期（Asia/Singapore）： 2026-07-30 · 立场： stress-test（对 research note 尾部风险判断的压力测...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f01efceb4b79/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "CME", "CBOE", "LOW", "UUP", "EEM", "FXY", "EWJ", "MCHI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-740e729f22", "title": "人民币、美元与套息交易决定跨境风险资产的流动性折价", "titleEn": "RMB, USD, and carry trades define the liquidity discount across cross-border risk assets", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-740e729f22/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 47, "supports": 3, "risks": 7, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "中美利差极值下的人民币敞口、套息与A股北向对冲", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 外汇策略师（fx-strategist）· 立场： 支持（Support） 工作日期： 2026-07-30（Asia/Singapore）· 本轮根议题： 2026年7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动与7月30日GDP/PCE数据门槛", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b2ad918aaeb9/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "美元回吐作为铰链：CNY缓和是否重开PBOC宽松空间、把CGB杠铃从carry倾向久期？", "summary": "美元回吐作为铰链：CNY缓和是否重开PBOC宽松空间、把CGB杠铃从carry倾向久期？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ba0fe61943e4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "把美元偏强、信誉优先的 Warsh 联储传导到中国 / A 股配置与人民币姿态", "summary": "把美元偏强、信誉优先的 Warsh 联储传导到中国 / A 股配置与人民币姿态", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d3afd563a57f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "沃什–植田分化：USD/JPY 创40年新低与重新堆积的日元套息交易", "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 任务： daily fx report 研究记录 工作日（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-07-30 · 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7db16d4a053/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "3988.HK", "0700.HK", "UUP", "2800.HK", "9988.HK", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a13f19ec2d", "title": "红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a13f19ec2d/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 2, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 A股卡：两融去杠杆、行业抵押品压力，与红利锚是否真的防御", "summary": "2026-07-30 A股卡：两融去杠杆、行业抵押品压力，与红利锚是否真的防御", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-db5ff030b2cf/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "红利银行核心收窄后，以红筹/H股高股息替代部分A股银行袖口的风格配置", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) · 立场： synthesize（综合） 研究院工作日期： 2026-07-30（Asia/Singapore） 根主题： BEA数据前的Fed鹰派按兵不动与全球久期风险 主...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a8a842de2a7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-08-02 A股板块轮动：红利国企底仓＋硬科技杠铃", "summary": "工作日：2026-08-02（Asia/Singapore）· 研究记录 · 立场：support（支持）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5ab34d425ade/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601398.SH", "688981.SH", "510880.SH", "600941.SH", "601088.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0011ad682c", "title": "美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0011ad682c/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "沃什–植田分化：USD/JPY 创40年新低与重新堆积的日元套息交易", "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 任务： daily fx report 研究记录 工作日（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-07-30 · 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7db16d4a053/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "USD/JPY 对冲执行窗口与现货触发规则校准", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 外汇策略师（ fx-strategist ） 工作日期： 2026-07-30（Asia/Singapore）· 立场： 综合（synthesize） 根议题： 沃什–植田政策分化：USD/JPY 创 40 年新低与重新堆积的...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2e724b070538/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 USD/JPY套息平仓外溢下的CNY政策走廊", "summary": "研究记录 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） · 立场： 综合（synthesize） 工作日期（Asia/Singapore）： 2026-07-30 问题： 如果USD/JPY跌破158，且20%-30%的FX对冲转入CNY/CNH流动...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e6111758b774/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "JPM", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-29b1c0d6c7", "title": "日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-29b1c0d6c7/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "沃什–植田分化：USD/JPY 创40年新低与重新堆积的日元套息交易", "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 任务： daily fx report 研究记录 工作日（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-07-30 · 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7db16d4a053/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "summary": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cc9508ab398/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 日元套息尾部下的跨资产风险预算：把汇率/利率套保网格转化为久期、股票beta、美元现金...", "summary": "2026-07-30 日元套息尾部下的跨资产风险预算：把汇率/利率套保网格转化为久期、股票beta、美元现金与套息敞口", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-964a1a5ecc8a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e40b25962e", "title": "A股“大行+红利/稀缺成长”哑铃配置在低杠杆与高可视度Backlog支撑下并未拥挤，而弱区域中小银行因资产质量二阶传导滞后与重度稀释风险…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股“大行+红利/稀缺成长”哑铃配置在低杠杆与高可视度Backlog支撑下并未拥挤，而弱区域中小银行因资产质量二阶传导滞后与重度稀释风险…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e40b25962e/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 2, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "红利银行核心收窄后，以红筹/H股高股息替代部分A股银行袖口的风格配置", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) · 立场： synthesize（综合） 研究院工作日期： 2026-07-30（Asia/Singapore） 根主题： BEA数据前的Fed鹰派按兵不动与全球久期风险 主...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a8a842de2a7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 A股风格轮动：红利+能源杠铃、低配成长、叠加CNY尾部对冲", "summary": "2026-07-30 A股风格轮动：红利+能源杠铃、低配成长、叠加CNY尾部对冲", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c70ab84b768d/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 A股卡：两融去杠杆、行业抵押品压力，与红利锚是否真的防御", "summary": "2026-07-30 A股卡：两融去杠杆、行业抵押品压力，与红利锚是否真的防御", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-db5ff030b2cf/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601398.SH", "601088.SH", "600941.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2aa156c4c9", "title": "2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2aa156c4c9/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "美国前端收益率高位向 USD/CNY 与亚洲货币的传导", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） 工作日期： 2026-07-30（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 根主题： BEA 数据前的 Fed 鹰派按兵不动与全球久期风险...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f5c906caac22/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 前序研究：USD/CNY 6.85 / 6.90 下的 A股执行篮子与流动性约束", "summary": "2026-07-30 前序研究：USD/CNY 6.85 / 6.90 下的 A股执行篮子与流动性约束", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b79cd22f2206/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "H股红利袖口（港币、锚定美元）是否需要对冲回人民币记账组合？", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 外汇/全球宏观（ fx-strategist ） · 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 研究院工作日期： 2026-07-30（Asia/Singapore） 根主题： BEA数据前的Fed鹰派按兵不动与全球久期...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f820333fa8fc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c89650af9e", "title": "酒店餐饮休闲复苏正在从客流修复转向 RevPAR、翻台率与小盘 Alpha", "titleEn": "Leisure, hotels, and restaurants are moving from traffic recovery to RevPAR, table turnover, and small-cap alpha", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c89650af9e/", "laneId": "lane_dd5a3eb17672", "lane": "酒店餐饮休闲/服务消费", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/hotels-restaurants-leisure-and-services-consumption/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 2, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "酒店、餐馆与休闲产业链研究队列 - 2026-07-30", "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-30，Asia/Singapore。本报告支持并综合既有研究线索，而不是重新做行业综述：本研究主题过去30日仅4次激活、样本总数97次，激活率4.1% [S0]。运行时未找到引用的实时工作区文...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b1e07bf79fa4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 H2 2026 宏观检验：消费、旅游人均花费、服务CPI、青年就业和地方促消费能否支撑HLR重...", "summary": "2026-07-30 H2 2026 宏观检验：消费、旅游人均花费、服务CPI、青年就业和地方促消费能否支撑HLR重估？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e42df5e62f33/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 — 把HLR选择性重估转化为A/H/ADR核心池与估值纪律", "summary": "2026-07-30 — 把HLR选择性重估转化为A/H/ADR核心池与估值纪律", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ca6379693754/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "9922.HK", "3690.HK", "001215.SZ", "YUMC", "300144.SZ", "1179.HK", "0780.HK", "605108.SH", "9658.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-89c14497ac", "title": "期权伽马、ETF 与尾盘流动性正在放大主题交易的微观结构风险", "titleEn": "Options gamma, ETFs, and closing liquidity are amplifying microstructure risk in theme trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-89c14497ac/", "laneId": "lane_2ba2ee6db1ee", "lane": "期权伽马/市场微观结构", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/options-gamma-and-market-microstructure/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 研究记录 08：桥接凸性方案的成本与可得性压力测试", "summary": "2026-07-30 研究记录 08：桥接凸性方案的成本与可得性压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-26371fe00321/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "拥挤交易预警", "summary": "基准日期：2026-07-30（来自 系统日期锚 ）。本报告中的“当前”“上一交易日”“本周”均以该日期为锚。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-31597c56f226/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "USD/JPY 凸性对冲的期权执行参数 — 2026-07-30", "summary": "既有研究记录/ 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） 工作日期：2026-07-30（Asia/Singapore） [CMD1] 综合卡 承接 既有研究记录（ chief-strategist，综合）—— 立场：综合 / 支...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e35bf87ec4ae/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CBOE", "CME", "HOOD", "IBKR", "VIRT", "VIXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-21dd72c1b1", "title": "航空航天与国防供应链错配正在形成政策驱动的制造业弹性", "titleEn": "Aerospace and defense supply-chain mismatch is creating policy-driven manufacturing beta", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-21dd72c1b1/", "laneId": "lane_1514a60f727a", "lane": "国防航空航天供应链", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/defense-and-aerospace-supply-chain/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 55, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "研究报告：2026-07-30", "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-30，Asia/Singapore。立场：stress-test。主题：外交制裁升级下的能源装备出口管制与关键技术供应链脆弱性评估。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-84ffbf8e772f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "工业制造行业周报", "summary": "角色： 工业制造分析师（先进制造、国防、机械、航空航天） 覆盖窗口： 2026-07-27（周一）至 2026-07-31（周五） 上游文件： 01 weekly plan.md 、 02 weekly research.md 、 QA review.md", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f6ef1791284e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "外交降级制裁与上游 Beta：出口管制冲击会击穿中海油的资本开支与国际化——还是只重塑其尾部？", "summary": "外交降级制裁与上游 Beta：出口管制冲击会击穿中海油的资本开支与国际化——还是只重塑其尾部？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bad33da8ce4b/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "LMT", "RTX", "NOC", "RKLB", "BA", "CAT", "IRDM", "ASTS", "HWM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f5f184ba4e", "title": "在美联储偏鹰暂停、美债收益率攀升至4.66%的背景下，国内电子行业两融余额高悬至5722.82亿元是否面临负Gamma清算压力？如何重构…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在美联储偏鹰暂停、美债收益率攀升至4.66%的背景下，国内电子行业两融余额高悬至5722.82亿元是否面临负Gamma清算压力？如何重构…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5f184ba4e/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 A股卡：两融去杠杆、行业抵押品压力，与红利锚是否真的防御", "summary": "2026-07-30 A股卡：两融去杠杆、行业抵押品压力，与红利锚是否真的防御", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-db5ff030b2cf/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-08-02 A股板块轮动：红利国企底仓＋硬科技杠铃", "summary": "工作日：2026-08-02（Asia/Singapore）· 研究记录 · 立场：support（支持）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5ab34d425ade/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "688981.SH", "601088.SH", "601398.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-07b4ef2695", "title": "地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-07b4ef2695/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "失去缓冲垫的 Warsh 美联储：把\"加息尾部\"定价进霍尔木兹石油冲击", "summary": "研究记录 · 研究记录 分析师 global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 任务 central bank watch 工作日 2026-07-30（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场 initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e8b0abe5c727/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "给定布伦特分布下,无指引 Warsh 美联储的反应函数:加息还是鹰派持有?", "summary": "给定布伦特分布下,无指引 Warsh 美联储的反应函数:加息还是鹰派持有?", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f8d9de147a58/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CVX", "XOM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-86be10e7fb", "title": "为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-86be10e7fb/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 前序研究：USD/CNY 6.85 / 6.90 下的 A股执行篮子与流动性约束", "summary": "2026-07-30 前序研究：USD/CNY 6.85 / 6.90 下的 A股执行篮子与流动性约束", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b79cd22f2206/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "H股红利袖口（港币、锚定美元）是否需要对冲回人民币记账组合？", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 外汇/全球宏观（ fx-strategist ） · 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 研究院工作日期： 2026-07-30（Asia/Singapore） 根主题： BEA数据前的Fed鹰派按兵不动与全球久期...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f820333fa8fc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CVX", "XOM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-307b7fe2cb", "title": "美联储7月两难：Warsh鹰派点阵图 vs 开裂的劳动力市场与消退的伊朗油价冲击", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储7月两难：Warsh鹰派点阵图 vs 开裂的劳动力市场与消退的伊朗油价冲击", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-307b7fe2cb/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "失去缓冲垫的 Warsh 美联储：把\"加息尾部\"定价进霍尔木兹石油冲击", "summary": "研究记录 · 研究记录 分析师 global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 任务 central bank watch 工作日 2026-07-30（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场 initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e8b0abe5c727/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "给定布伦特分布下,无指引 Warsh 美联储的反应函数:加息还是鹰派持有?", "summary": "给定布伦特分布下,无指引 Warsh 美联储的反应函数:加息还是鹰派持有?", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f8d9de147a58/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a3440bf2a4", "title": "中东停火信号下的油价风险应如何重定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中东停火信号下的油价风险应如何重定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a3440bf2a4/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "霍尔木兹石油溢价:可持续性与情景油价路径", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师: 能源行业分析师( energy-analyst ) 工作日期: 2026-07-30(Asia/Singapore) · 立场: 压力测试(stress-test) 根主题: 失去前瞻指引缓冲垫的 Warsh 美联储遭遇霍尔木兹石油冲...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-389911d91c38/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "失去缓冲垫的 Warsh 美联储：把\"加息尾部\"定价进霍尔木兹石油冲击", "summary": "研究记录 · 研究记录 分析师 global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 任务 central bank watch 工作日 2026-07-30（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场 initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e8b0abe5c727/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d74ae315e8", "title": "当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d74ae315e8/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "summary": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cc9508ab398/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "沃什–植田分化：USD/JPY 创40年新低与重新堆积的日元套息交易", "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 任务： daily fx report 研究记录 工作日（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-07-30 · 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7db16d4a053/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-594ba5e705", "title": "在中美利差走阔且输入型AI信用冲击升级的情形下，USD/CNY能否守住6.85缓冲翻转线", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在中美利差走阔且输入型AI信用冲击升级的情形下，USD/CNY能否守住6.85缓冲翻转线", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-594ba5e705/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 前序研究：USD/CNY 6.85 / 6.90 下的 A股执行篮子与流动性约束", "summary": "2026-07-30 前序研究：USD/CNY 6.85 / 6.90 下的 A股执行篮子与流动性约束", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b79cd22f2206/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "统一为一张组合级NAV风险矩阵：融合利率波动率账本、A股风格账本与USD/CNH期权叠加", "summary": "统一为一张组合级NAV风险矩阵：融合利率波动率账本、A股风格账本与USD/CNH期权叠加", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d4e6de2cb71c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-413f4aecc1", "title": "长江电力等红利拥挤度处于95%历史极值，且股息率利差压缩至历史低点，而在跨境分段生产解禁及创新药商业化兑现下医药板块大涨，这是否标志着A…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 长江电力等红利拥挤度处于95%历史极值，且股息率利差压缩至历史低点，而在跨境分段生产解禁及创新药商业化兑现下医药板块大涨，这是否标志着A…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-413f4aecc1/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 A股风格轮动：红利+能源杠铃、低配成长、叠加CNY尾部对冲", "summary": "2026-07-30 A股风格轮动：红利+能源杠铃、低配成长、叠加CNY尾部对冲", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c70ab84b768d/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 A股卡：两融去杠杆、行业抵押品压力，与红利锚是否真的防御", "summary": "2026-07-30 A股卡：两融去杠杆、行业抵押品压力，与红利锚是否真的防御", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-db5ff030b2cf/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "600905.SH", "DUK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-77134b90a1", "title": "2026年7月拐点：7月24日Section 122关税悬崖与2026年伊朗战争能源冲击消退相撞，如何把美联储钉在“更高更久”", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年7月拐点：7月24日Section 122关税悬崖与2026年伊朗战争能源冲击消退相撞，如何把美联储钉在“更高更久”", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-77134b90a1/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "美联储\"更高更久+加息期权\"约束下 PBoC 的宽松空间与 A 股风格裁决", "summary": "美联储\"更高更久+加息期权\"约束下 PBoC 的宽松空间与 A 股风格裁决", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1aef38421ec0/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "Warsh 治下的鹰派维持：美联储从\"何时降息\"转向\"是否加息\"的范式切换", "summary": "Warsh 治下的鹰派维持：美联储从\"何时降息\"转向\"是否加息\"的范式切换", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-acae7f69bd35/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-54a65a88ba", "title": "请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-54a65a88ba/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "summary": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cc9508ab398/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 旧 USD/CNH 6.90 行权价失效后的人民币稳定性与 A 股宏观 beta", "summary": "2026-07-30 旧 USD/CNH 6.90 行权价失效后的人民币稳定性与 A 股宏观 beta", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dde9f67ce739/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "UUP", "FXI", "2800.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a7f43e67af", "title": "在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a7f43e67af/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "失去缓冲垫的 Warsh 美联储：把\"加息尾部\"定价进霍尔木兹石油冲击", "summary": "研究记录 · 研究记录 分析师 global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 任务 central bank watch 工作日 2026-07-30（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场 initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e8b0abe5c727/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "给定布伦特分布下,无指引 Warsh 美联储的反应函数:加息还是鹰派持有?", "summary": "给定布伦特分布下,无指引 Warsh 美联储的反应函数:加息还是鹰派持有?", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f8d9de147a58/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f9ce8d294d", "title": "人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f9ce8d294d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "美联储\"更高更久+加息期权\"约束下 PBoC 的宽松空间与 A 股风格裁决", "summary": "美联储\"更高更久+加息期权\"约束下 PBoC 的宽松空间与 A 股风格裁决", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1aef38421ec0/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "USD/CNH、离岸在岸价差与中间价偏离：何种阈值会迫使 PBOC 放弃 1.40% 短...", "summary": "既有研究记录— USD/CNH、离岸在岸价差与中间价偏离：何种阈值会迫使 PBOC 放弃 1.40% 短端锚与 1.65%–1.90% 的 10Y 走廊？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8f1cd6b4ddeb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-250964b5dc", "title": "强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-250964b5dc/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "summary": "2026-07-30 美元对冲压力测试：USD/CNH、USD/JPY 与广义美元拆分", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cc9508ab398/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 USD/JPY套息平仓外溢下的CNY政策走廊", "summary": "研究记录 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） · 立场： 综合（synthesize） 工作日期（Asia/Singapore）： 2026-07-30 问题： 如果USD/JPY跌破158，且20%-30%的FX对冲转入CNY/CNH流动...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e6111758b774/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d8170c3a35", "title": "近海资本开支与设备利用率驱动油服盈利弹性", "titleEn": "Offshore capex and equipment utilization drive oilfield-service earnings leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d8170c3a35/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30｜全球宏观开题：Fed鹰派按兵不动、油价冲击与利率定价", "summary": "2026-07-30｜全球宏观开题：Fed鹰派按兵不动、油价冲击与利率定价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-280151d87c00/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 策略研究记录 02：油价–Fed–信用阈值下的组合再平衡（压力测试）", "summary": "2026-07-30 策略研究记录 02：油价–Fed–信用阈值下的组合再平衡（压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ffe3a73162cc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CVX", "XOM", "0883.HK", "COP", "2883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-31f32af77b", "title": "中国云与国产算力栈的关键不是模型热度，而是训练/推理订单、服务器交付和生态锁定", "titleEn": "China cloud and local compute stacks depend less on model hype than training/inference orders, server delivery, and e...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-31f32af77b/", "laneId": "lane_2997650d0638", "lane": "中国云/国产算力栈", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-cloud-and-local-compute-stack/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 — 压力测试\"不动 AI/出口收益核心\"这一假设", "summary": "分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst（AI 基础设施分析师）· 研究记录 · 工作日期： 2026-07-30（亚洲/新加坡） 主题： AI 基础设施与出口链核心资产的稳定性验证 问题： 若 AI 芯片进口受阻...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8efcc1da6bd8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "把锚质量阶梯与 A/A′/B/C 框架落到 A 股本土市场（SSE/SZSE/STAR）", "summary": "把锚质量阶梯与 A/A′/B/C 框架落到 A 股本土市场（SSE/SZSE/STAR）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f56655132a3e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "300308.SZ", "601138.SH", "0981.HK", "688981.SH", "000977.SZ", "9988.HK", "NVDA", "0700.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b13b8604a5", "title": "美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13b8604a5/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 — 日元套息平仓对中国的传导：CNH升值挤压、PBOC空间与A股红利防御", "summary": "2026-07-30 — 日元套息平仓对中国的传导：CNH升值挤压、PBOC空间与A股红利防御", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d3723b20a89a/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 日元套息尾部下的跨资产风险预算：把汇率/利率套保网格转化为久期、股票beta、美元现金...", "summary": "2026-07-30 日元套息尾部下的跨资产风险预算：把汇率/利率套保网格转化为久期、股票beta、美元现金与套息敞口", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-964a1a5ecc8a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "KWEB", "FXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-485a630a87", "title": "自动驾驶与 Robotaxi 主题必须从演示热度进入单位经济和监管城市扩张验证", "titleEn": "Autonomous driving and robotaxi themes must move from demo excitement to unit economics and regulated city expansion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-485a630a87/", "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da", "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 51, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "新能源汽车与智能网联汽车产业链：前序研究，2026-07-30", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-07-30，Asia/Singapore。本报告不是重述既有结论，而是在既有激活链条上继续推进：该产业链过去已有 2.3%、2.9%、3.5% 的激活快照，目前过去 30 天为 8/172，即 4.7%，说明新增...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9ccd46ad5a00/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "午间社交舆情扫描 · 研究级辩题", "summary": "分析师： 市场情绪师（Sentiment Analyst） 日期： 2026-07-30（周四，美东盘前/午间口径） 扫描重点： 散户注意力异动、单一标的/主题叙事萌芽、社交舆情领先/背离基本面的信息真空、协同叙事c...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-509d34da8d10/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GOOGL", "TSLA", "NVDA", "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "BIDU", "XPEV", "002594.SZ", "2015.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3d421524cd", "title": "油价地缘底线决定再通胀与降息交易的安全边际", "titleEn": "The geopolitical oil floor defines the margin of safety for disinflation and rate-cut trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3d421524cd/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 50, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "原油市场监测", "summary": "数据锚定日期：2026-07-30（来自 系统日期锚 ）。 覆盖范围：WTI/Brent 走势、OPEC+ 动态、美国库存数据；库存最新官方口径为 EIA 2026-07-29 发布、截至 2026-07-24 当周。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1ab72adab87f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 策略研究记录 02：油价–Fed–信用阈值下的组合再平衡（压力测试）", "summary": "2026-07-30 策略研究记录 02：油价–Fed–信用阈值下的组合再平衡（压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ffe3a73162cc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CME", "CVX", "XOM", "600938.SH", "600900.SH", "0857.HK", "COP", "601857.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a803fa3312", "title": "美联储路径仍是全球资产再定价的总阀门", "titleEn": "The Fed path remains the master valve for global asset repricing", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a803fa3312/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 46, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "偏鹰Fed按兵不动后的美元传导", "summary": "研究记录 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） · 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） 工作日期（Asia/Singapore）： 2026-07-30 问题： 如果7月Fed按兵不动是偏鹰而非偏鸽，哪些汇率对最容...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8f84ccc58f7a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-30 外汇研判：美联储鹰派暂停重新打开选择性美元上行，而非无差别强美元", "summary": "2026-07-30 外汇研判：美联储鹰派暂停重新打开选择性美元上行，而非无差别强美元", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ef9340f8a0a7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "TLT", "JPM", "KRE", "GLD", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a0828c5498", "title": "在两融余额突破3.015万亿元且电子板块平均CMR跌至138.55%的背景下，下周一强平盘（约1460亿）释放是否会刺穿市场底？组合应如…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在两融余额突破3.015万亿元且电子板块平均CMR跌至138.55%的背景下，下周一强平盘（约1460亿）释放是否会刺穿市场底？组合应如…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a0828c5498/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 82, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 A股卡：两融去杠杆、行业抵押品压力，与红利锚是否真的防御", "summary": "2026-07-30 A股卡：两融去杠杆、行业抵押品压力，与红利锚是否真的防御", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-db5ff030b2cf/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "510300.SH", "512100.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d03c2555a8", "title": "美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d03c2555a8/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30能源红利卡：煤炭与油气现金流可持续性及2026下半年第二梯队红利拆分", "summary": "2026-07-30能源红利卡：煤炭与油气现金流可持续性及2026下半年第二梯队红利拆分", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6ba9a1ea4afb/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-58f268edf9", "title": "隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-58f268edf9/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-31 日终两融与科创板集中度复核：半导体高 Beta 标的", "summary": "2026-07-31 日终两融与科创板集中度复核：半导体高 Beta 标的", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-407266894d61/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5a0bd732f3", "title": "A股杠铃策略应落地为“红利蓝筹压舱 + 硬科技成长进攻 + 轮动仓位调节”的三层结构，两融是成长端驱动力，ETF赎回和限售股解禁是仓位上限。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股杠铃策略应落地为“红利蓝筹压舱 + 硬科技成长进攻 + 轮动仓位调节”的三层结构，两融是成长端驱动力，ETF赎回和限售股解禁是仓位上限。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5a0bd732f3/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-08-02 A股板块轮动：红利国企底仓＋硬科技杠铃", "summary": "工作日：2026-08-02（Asia/Singapore）· 研究记录 · 立场：support（支持）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5ab34d425ade/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "510300.SH", "300750.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a4bf9a5c22", "title": "在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a4bf9a5c22/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-31 日终两融与科创板集中度复核：半导体高 Beta 标的", "summary": "2026-07-31 日终两融与科创板集中度复核：半导体高 Beta 标的", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-407266894d61/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688012.SH", "688041.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9a926eda26", "title": "本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a926eda26/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 A股卡：两融去杠杆、行业抵押品压力，与红利锚是否真的防御", "summary": "2026-07-30 A股卡：两融去杠杆、行业抵押品压力，与红利锚是否真的防御", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-db5ff030b2cf/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "600905.SH", "DUK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0e8748c14f", "title": "科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e8748c14f/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-31 日终两融与科创板集中度复核：半导体高 Beta 标的", "summary": "2026-07-31 日终两融与科创板集中度复核：半导体高 Beta 标的", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-407266894d61/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH", "688012.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-dfa08317f5", "title": "博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-dfa08317f5/", "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956", "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-08-02 A股板块轮动：红利国企底仓＋硬科技杠铃", "summary": "工作日：2026-08-02（Asia/Singapore）· 研究记录 · 立场：support（支持）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5ab34d425ade/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "300394.SZ", "300502.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-24cd0b5ff9", "title": "在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-24cd0b5ff9/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 — AI capex交易分化：Microsoft收入锚能否抵消Meta现金流压力？", "summary": "2026-07-30 — AI capex交易分化：Microsoft收入锚能否抵消Meta现金流压力？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d1a7ab385c52/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "GOOGL", "AMZN", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5c45703323", "title": "AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5c45703323/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 — AI capex交易分化：Microsoft收入锚能否抵消Meta现金流压力？", "summary": "2026-07-30 — AI capex交易分化：Microsoft收入锚能否抵消Meta现金流压力？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d1a7ab385c52/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "NVDA", "AMD", "MU", "AVGO", "TSM", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0e520ff02a", "title": "能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e520ff02a/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 日元套息尾部下的跨资产风险预算：把汇率/利率套保网格转化为久期、股票beta、美元现金...", "summary": "2026-07-30 日元套息尾部下的跨资产风险预算：把汇率/利率套保网格转化为久期、股票beta、美元现金与套息敞口", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-964a1a5ecc8a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CVX", "XOM", "SLB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-eefbf1a467", "title": "中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-eefbf1a467/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 跨资产再配比后 USD/CNY 与离岸中国资产的动态对冲比例", "summary": "2026-07-30 跨资产再配比后 USD/CNY 与离岸中国资产的动态对冲比例", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-884069c68e03/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-6ae5e48f60", "title": "折算率冲击目前更像高估值拥挤交易的局部去杠杆，而非已经形成全市场融资平仓链条。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 折算率冲击目前更像高估值拥挤交易的局部去杠杆，而非已经形成全市场融资平仓链条。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6ae5e48f60/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 A股卡：两融去杠杆、行业抵押品压力，与红利锚是否真的防御", "summary": "2026-07-30 A股卡：两融去杠杆、行业抵押品压力，与红利锚是否真的防御", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-db5ff030b2cf/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3cafa5bcd5", "title": "在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cafa5bcd5/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "USD/JPY、财务省干预、套息平仓外溢 — 2026-07-30", "summary": "截至研究所工作日 2026-07-30，本报告对上一张结论做 压力测试 而非简单延伸：USD/JPY 已逼近干预区，2026-07-30 3:58 a.m. EDT 报 163.73，52周区间为 145.50-164.00 [S9]。美联储在 2026-07-2...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-07d5235a3609/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-08b70be7bf", "title": "在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08b70be7bf/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电力设备链订单质量——已融资电网升级 vs 投机性排队 backlog（截至 2026-07-30）", "summary": "电力设备链订单质量——已融资电网升级 vs 投机性排队 backlog（截至 2026-07-30）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-230c2f5c5839/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4be65dd130", "title": "基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4be65dd130/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "失去缓冲垫的 Warsh 美联储：把\"加息尾部\"定价进霍尔木兹石油冲击", "summary": "研究记录 · 研究记录 分析师 global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 任务 central bank watch 工作日 2026-07-30（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场 initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e8b0abe5c727/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7930de9cdc", "title": "沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7930de9cdc/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 前序研究：USD/CNY 6.85与6.90触发位的组合套保比例", "summary": "2026-07-30 前序研究：USD/CNY 6.85与6.90触发位的组合套保比例", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4e0819e06c44/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-91cfb3e0f8", "title": "外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-91cfb3e0f8/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "信用总量可控时，地产尾部是否仍需单独降级？", "summary": "研究记录 · 首席策略师 · 工作日期：2026-08-03（Asia/Singapore）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d0de83210ed5/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "KRE", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e12bcc0d59", "title": "PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e12bcc0d59/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 A股卡：两融去杠杆、行业抵押品压力，与红利锚是否真的防御", "summary": "2026-07-30 A股卡：两融去杠杆、行业抵押品压力，与红利锚是否真的防御", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-db5ff030b2cf/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "510300.SH", "512100.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a2fc614c1", "title": "在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a2fc614c1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 前序研究 — 把融资质量阶梯落成A股AI与电力设备篮子", "summary": "2026-07-30 前序研究 — 把融资质量阶梯落成A股AI与电力设备篮子", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-26485a91d54e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "GEV", "ETN", "CEG", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-11523cabbd", "title": "熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-11523cabbd/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 跨资产再配比后 USD/CNY 与离岸中国资产的动态对冲比例", "summary": "2026-07-30 跨资产再配比后 USD/CNY 与离岸中国资产的动态对冲比例", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-884069c68e03/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-979591277f", "title": "能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-979591277f/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "鹰派美联储 vs. 人民银行的宽松空间：6.77 的人民币守得住吗？对 A 股流动性意味着什么？", "summary": "鹰派美联储 vs. 人民银行的宽松空间：6.77 的人民币守得住吗？对 A 股流动性意味着什么？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7def9e6d5911/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-56d9baf47d", "title": "2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-56d9baf47d/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 外汇研判：美联储鹰派暂停重新打开选择性美元上行，而非无差别强美元", "summary": "2026-07-30 外汇研判：美联储鹰派暂停重新打开选择性美元上行，而非无差别强美元", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ef9340f8a0a7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ffa474a3f2", "title": "端侧 AI 与 Agent 桌面正在把算力竞争从云端扩展到芯片、OS 与消费电子供应链", "titleEn": "Edge AI and agent desktops are extending compute competition from cloud to chips, OS, and consumer-electronics supply...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ffa474a3f2/", "laneId": "lane_74d352e86208", "lane": "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/edge-ai-and-agent-desktop-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "隔夜社交情绪扫描：研究候选", "summary": "日期锚点： 系统日期锚 = 2026-07-30。本文中的“隔夜”“上一交易日”均指截至美国 2026-07-29 盘后、亚洲 2026-07-30 早间可见的信息。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-12dbe3379cb2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "MSFT", "NVDA", "META", "AAPL", "AMZN", "AMD", "ARM", "QCOM", "GOOGL", "002475.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0", "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层", "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 — AI capex交易分化：Microsoft收入锚能否抵消Meta现金流压力？", "summary": "2026-07-30 — AI capex交易分化：Microsoft收入锚能否抵消Meta现金流压力？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d1a7ab385c52/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "TSM", "AVGO", "AAPL", "TSLA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0a0d09421e", "title": "AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0a0d09421e/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 — AI capex交易分化：Microsoft收入锚能否抵消Meta现金流压力？", "summary": "2026-07-30 — AI capex交易分化：Microsoft收入锚能否抵消Meta现金流压力？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d1a7ab385c52/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL" ] }, { "id": "thesis-34ed317472", "title": "A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-34ed317472/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 前序研究 — 把融资质量阶梯落成A股AI与电力设备篮子", "summary": "2026-07-30 前序研究 — 把融资质量阶梯落成A股AI与电力设备篮子", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-26485a91d54e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "510300.SH", "512100.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-83a30b141f", "title": "美伊直接交火导致原油暴涨5-6%，布伦特突破79美元逼近80。这是否会引燃二次通胀，推翻债市对美联储‘因分裂而暂停加息’的假设，并在9月…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美伊直接交火导致原油暴涨5-6%，布伦特突破79美元逼近80。这是否会引燃二次通胀，推翻债市对美联储‘因分裂而暂停加息’的假设，并在9月…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-83a30b141f/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 外汇研判：美联储鹰派暂停重新打开选择性美元上行，而非无差别强美元", "summary": "2026-07-30 外汇研判：美联储鹰派暂停重新打开选择性美元上行，而非无差别强美元", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ef9340f8a0a7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-df608ec2a1", "title": "AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-df608ec2a1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 前序研究 — 把融资质量阶梯落成A股AI与电力设备篮子", "summary": "2026-07-30 前序研究 — 把融资质量阶梯落成A股AI与电力设备篮子", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-26485a91d54e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "GEV", "600089.SH", "ETN", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a10279b001", "title": "面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a10279b001/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 — AI capex交易分化：Microsoft收入锚能否抵消Meta现金流压力？", "summary": "2026-07-30 — AI capex交易分化：Microsoft收入锚能否抵消Meta现金流压力？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d1a7ab385c52/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bc1d8e9af8", "title": "Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bc1d8e9af8/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "Warsh 治下的鹰派维持：美联储从\"何时降息\"转向\"是否加息\"的范式切换", "summary": "Warsh 治下的鹰派维持：美联储从\"何时降息\"转向\"是否加息\"的范式切换", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-acae7f69bd35/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3cb5657bb3", "title": "智能驾驶供应商拐点取决于定点转量产和毛利率修复", "titleEn": "The smart-driving supplier inflection depends on program conversion and margin recovery", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cb5657bb3/", "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da", "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "午间社交舆情扫描 · 研究级辩题", "summary": "分析师： 市场情绪师（Sentiment Analyst） 日期： 2026-07-30（周四，美东盘前/午间口径） 扫描重点： 散户注意力异动、单一标的/主题叙事萌芽、社交舆情领先/背离基本面的信息真空、协同叙事c...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-509d34da8d10/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSLA", "NVDA", "GOOGL", "1274.HK", "002594.SZ", "XPEV" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4e383ee09c", "title": "2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4e383ee09c/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 — AI capex交易分化：Microsoft收入锚能否抵消Meta现金流压力？", "summary": "2026-07-30 — AI capex交易分化：Microsoft收入锚能否抵消Meta现金流压力？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d1a7ab385c52/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5505b40cdb", "title": "通用减速机修复先于机器人精密传动兑现", "titleEn": "General reducer recovery precedes realization of the robotics option", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5505b40cdb/", "laneId": "lane_a724a01f8428", "lane": "具身智能/机器人零部件", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/embodied-ai-and-robotics-components/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "新能源汽车与智能网联汽车产业链：前序研究，2026-07-30", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-07-30，Asia/Singapore。本报告不是重述既有结论，而是在既有激活链条上继续推进：该产业链过去已有 2.3%、2.9%、3.5% 的激活快照，目前过去 30 天为 8/172，即 4.7%，说明新增...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9ccd46ad5a00/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002472.SZ", "002747.SZ", "300124.SZ", "TSLA", "688017.SH", "603915.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a6599a3f5", "title": "新一代信息技术国产替代要从信创叙事进入算力、软件与安全订单验证", "titleEn": "Domestic IT substitution must move from policy narrative to compute, software, and security order proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a6599a3f5/", "laneId": "lane_e4f90acbf804", "lane": "信创/国产 IT 栈", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/domestic-it-substitution-stack/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 — 压力测试\"不动 AI/出口收益核心\"这一假设", "summary": "分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst（AI 基础设施分析师）· 研究记录 · 工作日期： 2026-07-30（亚洲/新加坡） 主题： AI 基础设施与出口链核心资产的稳定性验证 问题： 若 AI 芯片进口受阻...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8efcc1da6bd8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "300308.SZ", "NVDA", "000977.SZ", "688008.SH", "688012.SH", "688111.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-741d1d6f34", "title": "地产、土地财政与 REITs 是中国信用底的慢变量", "titleEn": "Property, land finance, and REITs are the slow variables behind China's credit floor", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-741d1d6f34/", "laneId": "lane_5c8ea9f78210", "lane": "地产信用底/REITs", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-property-credit-floor-and-reits/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 61, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "信用总量可控时，地产尾部是否仍需单独降级？", "summary": "研究记录 · 首席策略师 · 工作日期：2026-08-03（Asia/Singapore）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d0de83210ed5/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "1109.HK", "600048.SH", "001979.SZ", "0960.HK", "0688.HK", "000002.SZ", "0823.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9d3836cc07", "title": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "titleEn": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d3836cc07/", "laneId": "lane_008e3bd9306a", "lane": "AI 软件效率/生产率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-software-productivity/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 58, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 — AI capex交易分化：Microsoft收入锚能否抵消Meta现金流压力？", "summary": "2026-07-30 — AI capex交易分化：Microsoft收入锚能否抵消Meta现金流压力？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d1a7ab385c52/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "NVDA", "NOW", "CRM", "ADBE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-44cf9d91f6", "title": "中国大健康 Alpha 正从医保压价转向创新药出海、临床确定性与设备刚需", "titleEn": "China healthcare alpha is moving from reimbursement pressure to overseas licensing, clinical certainty, and equipment...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-44cf9d91f6/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 57, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "最终风格轮动地图：创新药窄口径 alpha × 消费/白酒低信念宽度的组合层合...", "summary": "既有研究记录— 最终风格轮动地图：创新药窄口径 alpha × 消费/白酒低信念宽度的组合层合成", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-87bd22196555/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "2359.HK", "600276.SH", "1801.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "6990.HK", "300760.SZ", "603259.SH", "1177.HK", "002821.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-603a5f7966", "title": "A 股硬科技与科创50的复苏需要订单、融资盘和指数结构共振", "titleEn": "A-share hard tech and STAR50 recovery needs orders, margin positioning, and index structure to align", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-603a5f7966/", "laneId": "lane_4cc1e74d8e5f", "lane": "A股硬科技/科创50", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-hard-tech-and-star50/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 56, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "§1 THESIS", "summary": "author: daily-report-editor as of: 2026-07-30 market window: EOD market: AH tickers: [000001.SH, 399001.SZ, 399006.SZ, 000688.SH, 510050.SH, 588000.S…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5936893fcef2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "600900.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH", "300394.SZ", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d4473d35e5", "title": "猪周期、粮食与农产品价格决定中国低通胀修复的弹性", "titleEn": "Hog cycle, grain, and agricultural prices define the elasticity of China's low-inflation repair", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d4473d35e5/", "laneId": "lane_6e276fa53da1", "lane": "食品农业/猪周期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-agriculture-and-hog-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 56, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 研究记录08：猪肉基数抬升下的2026-2027年CPI中枢与人民银行路径", "summary": "2026-07-30 研究记录08：猪肉基数抬升下的2026-2027年CPI中枢与人民银行路径", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-608703504713/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002714.SZ", "001215.SZ", "300498.SZ", "000876.SZ", "CME", "600298.SH", "ADM", "DBA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-075017003b", "title": "AI 资本开支通过能源、设备和利率进入通胀定价", "titleEn": "AI capex enters inflation pricing through energy, equipment, and rates", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-075017003b/", "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08", "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 55, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录 03 GDP/PCE 对利率与信用的验证窗口 - 2026-07-30 [S1]", "summary": "研究记录 03 GDP/PCE 对利率与信用的验证窗口 - 2026-07-30 [S1]", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b68d94194d5c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "XLE", "TLT", "XLU", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ce29facfbd", "title": "中国资产定价仍受政策、流动性与风险偏好共同驱动", "titleEn": "China asset pricing remains driven by policy, liquidity, and risk appetite", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ce29facfbd/", "laneId": "lane_a8d9c69ae883", "lane": "中国权益流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-equity-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 52, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "中美利差极值下的人民币敞口、套息与A股北向对冲", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 外汇策略师（fx-strategist）· 立场： 支持（Support） 工作日期： 2026-07-30（Asia/Singapore）· 本轮根议题： 2026年7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动与7月30日GDP/PCE数据门槛", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b2ad918aaeb9/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "0700.HK", "9988.HK", "510300.SH", "159915.SZ", "300750.SZ", "3988.HK", "588000.SH", "LOW" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9a860a8801", "title": "信用再融资压力正在把利率风险转化为资产负债表筛选", "titleEn": "Credit refinancing pressure is turning rate risk into balance-sheet selection", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a860a8801/", "laneId": "lane_b29e1d216a21", "lane": "信用再融资/私募信贷", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/credit-refinancing-and-private-debt/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 52, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-30 全球宏观 前序研究：人民银行数量型宽松仅在边际触达中小盘信用端——太弱、太集中，无...", "summary": "2026-07-30 全球宏观 前序研究：人民银行数量型宽松仅在边际触达中小盘信用端——太弱、太集中，无法重新拓宽ETF壳拓不宽的盘面", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-32e69e4d0aa4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "KRE", "JPM", "META", "BX", "ARES", "KKR", "APO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e26ef69f73", "title": "风险核查与证据质量是主题交易的必要过滤器", "titleEn": "Risk verification and evidence quality are necessary filters for theme trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e26ef69f73/", "laneId": "lane_ccbe817778d1", "lane": "组合风控/证据质量", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/portfolio-risk-and-evidence-quality/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "把二次通胀尾部翻译成Fed反应函数：9月加息概率与GDP结构读法", "summary": "首席经济学家席位（全球宏观分析师执笔） 研究研究记录 工作日期：2026-07-30（Asia/Singapore） 立场：支持（SUPPORT）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0fd85f79924a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "CBOE", "IBKR", "VIRT", "SH" ] } ], "lanes": [ { "id": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "title": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "href": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "thesisCount": 27, "eventCount": 84, "convictionTotal": 2074, "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI", "2800.HK", "9988.HK", "0700.HK", "CME" ], "avgConviction": 77 }, { "id": "lane_1c216bd29875", "title": "美债利率/美元再定价", "href": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "thesisCount": 12, "eventCount": 32, "convictionTotal": 894, "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP", "JPM", "KRE", "CME", "GLD" ], "avgConviction": 75 }, { "id": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "title": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "href": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "thesisCount": 6, "eventCount": 21, "convictionTotal": 435, "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP", "KWEB", "CME", "CBOE", "LOW", "EEM", "EWJ", "MCHI" ], "avgConviction": 73 }, { "id": "lane_93300d58763e", "title": "油气/地缘通胀", "href": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "thesisCount": 11, "eventCount": 18, "convictionTotal": 817, "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "SLB", "OXY", "CVX", "XOM", "COP", "2883.HK", "CME", "600938.SH", "600900.SH", "0857.HK", "601857.SH" ], "avgConviction": 74 }, { "id": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "title": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "href": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "thesisCount": 5, "eventCount": 16, "convictionTotal": 380, "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "688981.SH", "601088.SH", "601398.SH", "588000.SH", "510880.SH", "600941.SH", "601939.SH" ], "avgConviction": 76 }, { "id": "lane_070c58f355b5", "title": "A股风险偏好/两融", "href": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "thesisCount": 5, "eventCount": 8, "convictionTotal": 369, "stockTickers": [ "510300.SH", "512100.SH", "588000.SH", "300750.SZ", "300308.SZ", "600519.SH", "159915.SZ", "688256.SH", "600900.SH" ], "avgConviction": 74 }, { "id": "lane_54700cb9537f", "title": "商业航天/卫星直连", "href": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "thesisCount": 1, "eventCount": 4, "convictionTotal": 81, "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "LUNR" ], "avgConviction": 81 }, { "id": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "title": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "href": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "thesisCount": 4, "eventCount": 4, "convictionTotal": 317, "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH" ], "avgConviction": 79 }, { "id": "lane_6fbf93c613f9", "title": "债券供给/银行久期", "href": "/investor/lanes/bond-supply-and-bank-duration/", "thesisCount": 1, "eventCount": 4, "convictionTotal": 54, "stockTickers": [ "601398.SH", "601939.SH", "601288.SH", "3988.HK", "600900.SH", "TLT", "IEF", "000001.SZ" ], "avgConviction": 54 }, { "id": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "title": "公用事业/电网信用", "href": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "thesisCount": 2, "eventCount": 3, "convictionTotal": 156, "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "600905.SH", "DUK" ], "avgConviction": 78 }, { "id": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "title": "AI 电力/电网设备", "href": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "thesisCount": 3, "eventCount": 3, "convictionTotal": 221, "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST", "CEG" ], "avgConviction": 74 }, { "id": "lane_f21fc181388a", "title": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "href": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "thesisCount": 3, "eventCount": 3, "convictionTotal": 213, "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "GOOGL", "AMZN", "NVDA", "TSM", "AVGO", "AAPL", "TSLA" ], "avgConviction": 71 }, { "id": "lane_dd5a3eb17672", "title": "酒店餐饮休闲/服务消费", "href": "/investor/lanes/hotels-restaurants-leisure-and-services-consumption/", "thesisCount": 1, "eventCount": 3, "convictionTotal": 65, "stockTickers": [ "9922.HK", "3690.HK", "001215.SZ", "YUMC", "300144.SZ", "1179.HK", "0780.HK", "605108.SH", "9658.HK" ], "avgConviction": 65 }, { "id": "lane_2ba2ee6db1ee", "title": "期权伽马/市场微观结构", "href": "/investor/lanes/options-gamma-and-market-microstructure/", "thesisCount": 1, "eventCount": 3, "convictionTotal": 62, "stockTickers": [ "CBOE", "CME", "HOOD", "IBKR", "VIRT", "VIXY" ], "avgConviction": 62 }, { "id": "lane_0cb100fcf8da", "title": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济", "href": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/", "thesisCount": 2, "eventCount": 3, "convictionTotal": 116, "stockTickers": [ "TSLA", "NVDA", "GOOGL", "1274.HK", "002594.SZ", "XPEV", "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "BIDU", "2015.HK" ], "avgConviction": 58 }, { "id": "lane_1514a60f727a", "title": "国防航空航天供应链", "href": "/investor/lanes/defense-and-aerospace-supply-chain/", "thesisCount": 1, "eventCount": 3, "convictionTotal": 55, "stockTickers": [ "LMT", "RTX", 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