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          "title": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "summary": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d648c08f870e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 - 围绕A股6.88防御线的USD/CNH中间价偏差与离岸流动性",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 - 围绕A股6.88防御线的USD/CNH中间价偏差与离岸流动性",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-58bdd52324f6/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 - 跨资产ERP、国债久期与USD/CNH对冲框架",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 - 跨资产ERP、国债久期与USD/CNH对冲框架",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-beaeca082ea8/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-594ba5e705",
      "title": "在中美利差走阔且输入型AI信用冲击升级的情形下，USD/CNY能否守住6.85缓冲翻转线",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在中美利差走阔且输入型AI信用冲击升级的情形下，USD/CNY能否守住6.85缓冲翻转线",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-594ba5e705/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "USD/CNY 有序贬值下的 A 股红利重排与两融压力残留",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 工作日期： 2026-07-29（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师： A 股策略师（ ashare-strategist ）· 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） - 根主题： Warsh 治下的美联储与 2026 年 7 月 FOMC——...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99aa19fd9608/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 - USD/CNH压力与A股CNY敏感低配约束",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-29（Asia/Singapore），本报告片综合前两张研究记录的宏观与A股策略线索：当USD/CNH仍在6.7708附近时，A股CNY敏感低配应维持温和约束；但如果FOMC后的美元反应推动USD/...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2c3095cc03fb/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 - 围绕A股6.88防御线的USD/CNH中间价偏差与离岸流动性",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 - 围绕A股6.88防御线的USD/CNH中间价偏差与离岸流动性",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-58bdd52324f6/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f49a801354be/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-fe66302bd9",
      "title": "美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fe66302bd9/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 — USD/CNH对冲工具、期限选择与carry预算",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 — USD/CNH对冲工具、期限选择与carry预算",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd2590c1bc57/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：FOMC 路径、油价冲击与 USD/CNH 通道是否要求提高对冲比例、或推迟...",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：FOMC 路径、油价冲击与 USD/CNH 通道是否要求提高对冲比例、或推迟第二批 10 单位 AI 电力加仓？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c75dd47a4e6a/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "summary": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d648c08f870e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 前序研究 — USD/CNH升级触发、中间价偏差、CNH-HIBOR曲线与对冲定价",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 前序研究 — USD/CNH升级触发、中间价偏差、CNH-HIBOR曲线与对冲定价",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-59d25a6d2713/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-2ee6c1cf01",
      "title": "39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2ee6c1cf01/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "summary": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d648c08f870e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f49a801354be/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 - USD/CNH压力与A股CNY敏感低配约束",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-29（Asia/Singapore），本报告片综合前两张研究记录的宏观与A股策略线索：当USD/CNH仍在6.7708附近时，A股CNY敏感低配应维持温和约束；但如果FOMC后的美元反应推动USD/...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2c3095cc03fb/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 — USD/CNH对冲工具、期限选择与carry预算",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 — USD/CNH对冲工具、期限选择与carry预算",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd2590c1bc57/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3156277f22",
      "title": "哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3156277f22/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 4,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — USD/CNH破7.10与NCD走阔共时下PBoC的政策三难：护汇率还是托资金面，及其对红利/能源...",
          "summary": "前序研究 — USD/CNH破7.10与NCD走阔共时下PBoC的政策三难：护汇率还是托资金面，及其对红利/能源压舱的传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c38c7d8eb844/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：FOMC 路径、油价冲击与 USD/CNH 通道是否要求提高对冲比例、或推迟...",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：FOMC 路径、油价冲击与 USD/CNH 通道是否要求提高对冲比例、或推迟第二批 10 单位 AI 电力加仓？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c75dd47a4e6a/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "summary": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d648c08f870e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f49a801354be/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-db003202fc",
      "title": "国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db003202fc/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 4,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — USD/CNH破7.10与NCD走阔共时下PBoC的政策三难：护汇率还是托资金面，及其对红利/能源...",
          "summary": "前序研究 — USD/CNH破7.10与NCD走阔共时下PBoC的政策三难：护汇率还是托资金面，及其对红利/能源压舱的传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c38c7d8eb844/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — PBOC 第 4 档风险下的 USD/CNH 期权执行结构",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — PBOC 第 4 档风险下的 USD/CNH 期权执行结构",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-00349cc05b14/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 前序研究 — USD/CNH升级触发、中间价偏差、CNH-HIBOR曲线与对冲定价",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 前序研究 — USD/CNH升级触发、中间价偏差、CNH-HIBOR曲线与对冲定价",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-59d25a6d2713/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 — USD/CNH对冲工具、期限选择与carry预算",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 — USD/CNH对冲工具、期限选择与carry预算",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd2590c1bc57/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-94e0c46a69",
      "title": "USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-94e0c46a69/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 5,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — PBOC 第 4 档风险下的 USD/CNH 期权执行结构",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — PBOC 第 4 档风险下的 USD/CNH 期权执行结构",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-00349cc05b14/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "summary": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d648c08f870e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 前序研究 — USD/CNH升级触发、中间价偏差、CNH-HIBOR曲线与对冲定价",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 前序研究 — USD/CNH升级触发、中间价偏差、CNH-HIBOR曲线与对冲定价",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-59d25a6d2713/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — USD/CNH破7.10与NCD走阔共时下PBoC的政策三难：护汇率还是托资金面，及其对红利/能源...",
          "summary": "前序研究 — USD/CNH破7.10与NCD走阔共时下PBoC的政策三难：护汇率还是托资金面，及其对红利/能源压舱的传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c38c7d8eb844/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-662985737d",
      "title": "在12% HIBOR极端挤空及离岸流动性收紧传导下，将USD/CNH期权套保释放的5374万人民币全额转配至离岸存款以锁定12%高息Ca…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在12% HIBOR极端挤空及离岸流动性收紧传导下，将USD/CNH期权套保释放的5374万人民币全额转配至离岸存款以锁定12%高息Ca…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-662985737d/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 6,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "summary": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d648c08f870e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 前序研究 — USD/CNH升级触发、中间价偏差、CNH-HIBOR曲线与对冲定价",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 前序研究 — USD/CNH升级触发、中间价偏差、CNH-HIBOR曲线与对冲定价",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-59d25a6d2713/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — PBOC 第 4 档风险下的 USD/CNH 期权执行结构",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — PBOC 第 4 档风险下的 USD/CNH 期权执行结构",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-00349cc05b14/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — USD/CNH破7.10与NCD走阔共时下PBoC的政策三难：护汇率还是托资金面，及其对红利/能源...",
          "summary": "前序研究 — USD/CNH破7.10与NCD走阔共时下PBoC的政策三难：护汇率还是托资金面，及其对红利/能源压舱的传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c38c7d8eb844/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-250964b5dc",
      "title": "强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-250964b5dc/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f49a801354be/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "summary": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d648c08f870e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 两类PCE后触发确认下USD/CNH对冲袖子的压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 两类PCE后触发确认下USD/CNH对冲袖子的压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ae5a5b6881c5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 - USD/CNH压力与A股CNY敏感低配约束",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-29（Asia/Singapore），本报告片综合前两张研究记录的宏观与A股策略线索：当USD/CNH仍在6.7708附近时，A股CNY敏感低配应维持温和约束；但如果FOMC后的美元反应推动USD/...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2c3095cc03fb/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-7a72c14c0e",
      "title": "离岸收紧目前更可能触发局部高拥挤板块去杠杆，而非A股全市场两融踩踏；红利低波守底仓，资源股只做流动性凸性腿。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 离岸收紧目前更可能触发局部高拥挤板块去杠杆，而非A股全市场两融踩踏；红利低波守底仓，资源股只做流动性凸性腿。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a72c14c0e/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 3,
      "risks": 4,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "summary": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d648c08f870e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 - USD/CNH压力与A股CNY敏感低配约束",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-29（Asia/Singapore），本报告片综合前两张研究记录的宏观与A股策略线索：当USD/CNH仍在6.7708附近时，A股CNY敏感低配应维持温和约束；但如果FOMC后的美元反应推动USD/...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2c3095cc03fb/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 - 围绕A股6.88防御线的USD/CNH中间价偏差与离岸流动性",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 - 围绕A股6.88防御线的USD/CNH中间价偏差与离岸流动性",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-58bdd52324f6/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — USD/CNH破7.10与NCD走阔共时下PBoC的政策三难：护汇率还是托资金面，及其对红利/能源...",
          "summary": "前序研究 — USD/CNH破7.10与NCD走阔共时下PBoC的政策三难：护汇率还是托资金面，及其对红利/能源压舱的传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c38c7d8eb844/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "9988.HK",
        "0700.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-da665e3ee7",
      "title": "在2026-06-26，中国约1.73%的国债收益率托底机制在Warsh强美元政策与三季度2-5万亿地方债/国债供给冲击下不可持续，国债…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-26，中国约1.73%的国债收益率托底机制在Warsh强美元政策与三季度2-5万亿地方债/国债供给冲击下不可持续，国债…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-da665e3ee7/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "summary": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d648c08f870e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f49a801354be/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 - USD/CNH压力与A股CNY敏感低配约束",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-29（Asia/Singapore），本报告片综合前两张研究记录的宏观与A股策略线索：当USD/CNH仍在6.7708附近时，A股CNY敏感低配应维持温和约束；但如果FOMC后的美元反应推动USD/...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2c3095cc03fb/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 — USD/CNH对冲工具、期限选择与carry预算",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 — USD/CNH对冲工具、期限选择与carry预算",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd2590c1bc57/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-7b4a91628c",
      "title": "掉期成本翻正使 USD/CNH 远期曲线倒挂，远期由套保工具变为贬值信号；越过 3M CNH HIBOR ≈ 5.3% 拐点后，央行流动…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 掉期成本翻正使 USD/CNH 远期曲线倒挂，远期由套保工具变为贬值信号；越过 3M CNH HIBOR ≈ 5.3% 拐点后，央行流动…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7b4a91628c/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 4,
      "risks": 7,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 前序研究 — USD/CNH升级触发、中间价偏差、CNH-HIBOR曲线与对冲定价",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 前序研究 — USD/CNH升级触发、中间价偏差、CNH-HIBOR曲线与对冲定价",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-59d25a6d2713/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "summary": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d648c08f870e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — PBOC 第 4 档风险下的 USD/CNH 期权执行结构",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — PBOC 第 4 档风险下的 USD/CNH 期权执行结构",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-00349cc05b14/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 - USD/CNH压力与A股CNY敏感低配约束",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-29（Asia/Singapore），本报告片综合前两张研究记录的宏观与A股策略线索：当USD/CNH仍在6.7708附近时，A股CNY敏感低配应维持温和约束；但如果FOMC后的美元反应推动USD/...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2c3095cc03fb/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b976d8330e",
      "title": "NAND盈利弹性由价格与产品结构主导，而非单纯出货增长",
      "titleEn": "NAND earnings leverage is driven by pricing and mix rather than shipment growth alone",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b976d8330e/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 70,
      "supports": 6,
      "risks": 5,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "把 Mag7 capex/FCF 门槛映射到 HBM、DRAM、设备、光模块及 A 股半导体标的：谁仍是瓶颈层，谁从受...",
          "summary": "把 Mag7 capex/FCF 门槛映射到 HBM、DRAM、设备、光模块及 A 股半导体标的：谁仍是瓶颈层，谁从受益者切换为库存/订单风险",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7f98bc124295/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "超大规模厂商AI资本开支对内存/存储承诺的兑付耐久性，2026-07-29",
          "summary": "超大规模厂商AI资本开支对内存/存储承诺的兑付耐久性，2026-07-29",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b08b4dc04f72/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI存储/半导体：创纪录ETF申购流与崩塌价格背离——夏季重置还是范式破裂？",
          "summary": "AI存储/半导体：创纪录ETF申购流与崩塌价格背离——夏季重置还是范式破裂？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-92a46632be6d/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "盘前主题结构扫描 · 2026-07-29（周三）",
          "summary": "主题研究员 时钟基准日：2026-07-29（美东盘前） 门槛：只在\"今天真正悬而未决\"的主题问题上出手，非例行行业点评。今日通过门槛。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b96c31f8819a/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "META",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS",
        "TSM",
        "AMD",
        "AVGO"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d8170c3a35",
      "title": "近海资本开支与设备利用率驱动油服盈利弹性",
      "titleEn": "Offshore capex and equipment utilization drive oilfield-service earnings leverage",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d8170c3a35/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 68,
      "supports": 3,
      "risks": 4,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 - 全球宏观开局卡：7月FOMC与油价冲击风险溢价",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 - 全球宏观开局卡：7月FOMC与油价冲击风险溢价",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4e6edfb6c3ed/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "Warsh 联储下的前端利率：可信加息还是信誉风险期限溢价？",
          "summary": "全球宏观分析师 · 研究研究记录 · 工作日期：2026-07-31（Asia/Singapore） 根议题： 市场计价年内约3次降息 vs 联储3票主张加息——谁被迫重定价？ 本报告议题： Warsh 联储下的前端利率——...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-594ce4c55640/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "压力测试：油价再通胀向10Y收益率的传导，及1.85–1.90%再加仓阈值",
          "summary": "压力测试：油价再通胀向10Y收益率的传导，及1.85–1.90%再加仓阈值",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5f87fb599b0c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "中东油价反转风险与 FOMC 意外加息共振 — 2026-07-29",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-29，Asia/Singapore。我支持把今日晨报从单纯的“风险溢价降温”改为有条件的“油价-通胀-Fed 共振风险”，但不建议直接改成“油价冲击已成为基准情景”。更准确的标题是：...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-695772ffbd12/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "CVX",
        "XOM",
        "0883.HK",
        "COP",
        "2883.HK",
        "SLB",
        "OXY"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d1f5e35b43",
      "title": "2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d1f5e35b43/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Hyperscaler capex 轨迹与算力架构：平台期还是再加速，ASIC 侵蚀商用 GPU/HBM 到什么程度？",
          "summary": "Hyperscaler capex 轨迹与算力架构：平台期还是再加速，ASIC 侵蚀商用 GPU/HBM 到什么程度？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-55786a85f70e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "CXMT恐慌：是AI内存拐点，还是HBM误读？",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 首席策略师 · 工作日期：2026-07-29（亚洲/新加坡） 根议题： CXMT恐慌是AI内存拐点，还是一场HBM误读？ 本报告问题： 社交盘把CXMT风险拆成两层——普通DRAM与HBM——盘面却在砍...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3d956f241777/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI 基础设施 capex 能否吸收 HBM 涨价冲击？",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师（ ai-infrastructure-analyst ） 工作日期： 2026-07-29（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： 支持（support，支持根主题的稀缺性溢价判断） 根主题： HBM 市...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c0c2c10d9b3f/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "截至 2026-07-29 的 HBM 供需阶段图：2028 年前的稀缺性溢价 [S0]",
          "summary": "截至 2026-07-29 的 HBM 供需阶段图：2028 年前的稀缺性溢价 [S0]",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-603a5f7966",
      "title": "A 股硬科技与科创50的复苏需要订单、融资盘和指数结构共振",
      "titleEn": "A-share hard tech and STAR50 recovery needs orders, margin positioning, and index structure to align",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-603a5f7966/",
      "laneId": "lane_4cc1e74d8e5f",
      "lane": "A股硬科技/科创50",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-hard-tech-and-star50/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 56,
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      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股AI硬件子链条：订单可验证 vs 信用/资本开支敏感（压力测试）",
          "summary": "research note — A股AI硬件子链条：订单可验证 vs 信用/资本开支敏感（压力测试）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1d8767475d4a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "§1 THESIS",
          "summary": "author: morning-brief-editor as of: 2026-07-29 market window: pre-open market: AH tickers: [601288.SH, 601398.SH, 600519.SH, 688111.SH, 588000.SH, 15…",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-938645bb7ee9/",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
          "summary": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
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          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "晨会主编午间同步简报（2026-07-29）",
          "summary": "日期锚点：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-29 （周三）。本文所有\"今天 / 上午 / 下午 / 今晚 / 昨天 / 上一交易日 / 本周 / 上周\"均按 2026-07-29 解析；美股以最近一个完整交易日 2026-07...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0ce404b119a2/",
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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        "688256.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "600900.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "300394.SZ",
        "002916.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d4473d35e5",
      "title": "猪周期、粮食与农产品价格决定中国低通胀修复的弹性",
      "titleEn": "Hog cycle, grain, and agricultural prices define the elasticity of China's low-inflation repair",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d4473d35e5/",
      "laneId": "lane_6e276fa53da1",
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          "title": "玉米政策底、猪周期与食品CPI传导",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-29，Asia/Singapore。本报告把“DCE玉米跌破2300元/吨并触发政策性投放放慢”视为研究题面给定的情景阈值，而不是已经公开核验的官方触发线[来源不明]。截至2026-07-29，可观...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90d8f53d4e56/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "从饲料成本软底到食品CPI：四季度能繁去化叠加猪价温和修复，是真正的再通胀，还是仅仅猪肉拖累收...",
          "summary": "从饲料成本软底到食品CPI：四季度能繁去化叠加猪价温和修复，是真正的再通胀，还是仅仅猪肉拖累收窄？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9d7b99edf0fa/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "猪周期跟踪：生猪价格、能繁母猪存栏与养殖利润",
          "summary": "报告日期锚点：2026-07-29。所有“今日”“上周”“上一交易日”均以工作区 shell 命令 系统日期锚 返回的 2026-07-29 为准。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a1da7f8ccfa1/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 A股落地：猪肉再通胀尾部、消费必需轮动与仓位控制",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-29，Asia/Singapore。本报告片对前序判断作 综合：2026年仍主要是猪肉对CPI拖累收窄，真正可交易的上行尾部延后到2027年上半年；因此A股组合不应一次性押注完整猪周期Beta...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-967abb2e5d1d/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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        "001215.SZ",
        "300498.SZ",
        "000876.SZ",
        "CME",
        "600298.SH",
        "ADM",
        "DBA"
      ]
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    {
      "id": "thesis-740e729f22",
      "title": "人民币、美元与套息交易决定跨境风险资产的流动性折价",
      "titleEn": "RMB, USD, and carry trades define the liquidity discount across cross-border risk assets",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-740e729f22/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
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      "supports": 3,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
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          "title": "截至 2026-07-29 的美联储反应函数、美元/利率路径与人民币闸门 A 持久性",
          "summary": "截至 2026-07-29 的美联储反应函数、美元/利率路径与人民币闸门 A 持久性",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1c6afb327e2a/",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "鹰派暂停后的美元、CNY 与 JPY 传导",
          "summary": "· 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 (global-macro) · 立场： 支持 研究所工作日： 2026-07-29（Asia/Singapore） 根议题： 2026-07-29 美国 FOMC 前的实际利率与美元条件再定价 本报告： 若 FOMC 给...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ebd603c0fc04/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f49a801354be/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 两类PCE后触发确认下USD/CNH对冲袖子的压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 两类PCE后触发确认下USD/CNH对冲袖子的压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ae5a5b6881c5/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "UUP",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-bb46b0c3de",
      "title": "USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bb46b0c3de/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
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      "neutral": 0,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f49a801354be/",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 — USD/CNH对冲工具、期限选择与carry预算",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 — USD/CNH对冲工具、期限选择与carry预算",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd2590c1bc57/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 - USD/CNH压力与A股CNY敏感低配约束",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-29（Asia/Singapore），本报告片综合前两张研究记录的宏观与A股策略线索：当USD/CNH仍在6.7708附近时，A股CNY敏感低配应维持温和约束；但如果FOMC后的美元反应推动USD/...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2c3095cc03fb/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-9a926eda26",
      "title": "本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a926eda26/",
      "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e",
      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
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      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "USD/CNY 有序贬值下的 A 股红利重排与两融压力残留",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 工作日期： 2026-07-29（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师： A 股策略师（ ashare-strategist ）· 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） - 根主题： Warsh 治下的美联储与 2026 年 7 月 FOMC——...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99aa19fd9608/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "压力测试 3.2 / 2.6 / 2.2 红利能源袖套：流通盘、两融余额与拥挤度对利率上行 / 红利因子踩踏的抵...",
          "summary": "压力测试 3.2 / 2.6 / 2.2 红利能源袖套：流通盘、两融余额与拥挤度对利率上行 / 红利因子踩踏的抵抗力",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-720b2d62af34/",
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        {
          "title": "A 股红利篮子的组合层面再排序：石油、煤炭、运营商与电力的权重和触发线",
          "summary": "工作日：2026-07-29（亚洲/新加坡）。作者：首席策略师。立场：综合（synthesize）。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8b202ec45633/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
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      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "600905.SH",
        "DUK"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-a60b131c8c",
      "title": "面对4.2%的总体CPI与108美元的布伦特原油，新任主席沃什将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上如何调整点阵图与政策立场？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 面对4.2%的总体CPI与108美元的布伦特原油，新任主席沃什将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上如何调整点阵图与政策立场？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a60b131c8c/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
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      "supports": 1,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 - 全球宏观开局卡：7月FOMC与油价冲击风险溢价",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 - 全球宏观开局卡：7月FOMC与油价冲击风险溢价",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4e6edfb6c3ed/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "中东油价反转风险与 FOMC 意外加息共振 — 2026-07-29",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-29，Asia/Singapore。我支持把今日晨报从单纯的“风险溢价降温”改为有条件的“油价-通胀-Fed 共振风险”，但不建议直接改成“油价冲击已成为基准情景”。更准确的标题是：...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-695772ffbd12/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：FOMC 路径、油价冲击与 USD/CNH 通道是否要求提高对冲比例、或推迟...",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：FOMC 路径、油价冲击与 USD/CNH 通道是否要求提高对冲比例、或推迟第二批 10 单位 AI 电力加仓？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c75dd47a4e6a/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-24cd0b5ff9",
      "title": "在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-24cd0b5ff9/",
      "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a",
      "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 3,
      "risks": 0,
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      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29：AI capex融资压力的跨资产配置规则",
          "summary": "既有研究记录 · 首席策略师 · 工作日期：2026-07-29（Asia/Singapore） 立场: synthesize 承接: 全球宏观分析师（既有研究记录）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b5b6e776b236/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "存储 / AI 芯片：散户去杠杆是可买的洗盘，还是 AI capex 叙事换挡的第一根多米诺？",
          "summary": "存储 / AI 芯片：散户去杠杆是可买的洗盘，还是 AI capex 叙事换挡的第一根多米诺？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a6f95b5a4227/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI capex：真实需求、循环融资，还是两者同时成立？— 2026-07-29",
          "summary": "AI capex：真实需求、循环融资，还是两者同时成立？— 2026-07-29",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b16b864c19d6/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "GOOGL",
        "AMZN",
        "NVDA"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-91cfb3e0f8",
      "title": "外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-91cfb3e0f8/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 - 跨资产ERP、国债久期与USD/CNH对冲框架",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 - 跨资产ERP、国债久期与USD/CNH对冲框架",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-beaeca082ea8/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "地产与LGFV信用迁徙阈值向银行拨备压力的传导 — 2026-07-29",
          "summary": "地产与LGFV信用迁徙阈值向银行拨备压力的传导 — 2026-07-29",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-009763c45385/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 金融业压力测试：银行NIM与信用传导能否限制A股流动性扩散？",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 金融业压力测试：银行NIM与信用传导能否限制A股流动性扩散？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a5562322193c/",
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        "KRE",
        "TLT",
        "IEF"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-979591277f",
      "title": "能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-979591277f/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储—中国政策分化下的 USD/CNY 之谜：人民币为何在美联储偏鹰之际仍坚挺",
          "summary": "美联储—中国政策分化下的 USD/CNY 之谜：人民币为何在美联储偏鹰之际仍坚挺",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-79956f5e2328/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "截至 2026-07-29 的美联储反应函数、美元/利率路径与人民币闸门 A 持久性",
          "summary": "截至 2026-07-29 的美联储反应函数、美元/利率路径与人民币闸门 A 持久性",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1c6afb327e2a/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNY 6.85/6.90提款尾部的战术对冲",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNY 6.85/6.90提款尾部的战术对冲",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-42b484eb5764/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d0faeae7f0",
      "title": "NAND价格与产品组合驱动SanDisk盈利弹性",
      "titleEn": "NAND pricing and mix drive SanDisk earnings leverage",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d0faeae7f0/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 72,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "把 Mag7 capex/FCF 门槛映射到 HBM、DRAM、设备、光模块及 A 股半导体标的：谁仍是瓶颈层，谁从受...",
          "summary": "把 Mag7 capex/FCF 门槛映射到 HBM、DRAM、设备、光模块及 A 股半导体标的：谁仍是瓶颈层，谁从受益者切换为库存/订单风险",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7f98bc124295/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "超大规模厂商AI资本开支对内存/存储承诺的兑付耐久性，2026-07-29",
          "summary": "超大规模厂商AI资本开支对内存/存储承诺的兑付耐久性，2026-07-29",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b08b4dc04f72/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "盘前主题结构扫描 · 2026-07-29（周三）",
          "summary": "主题研究员 时钟基准日：2026-07-29（美东盘前） 门槛：只在\"今天真正悬而未决\"的主题问题上出手，非例行行业点评。今日通过门槛。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b96c31f8819a/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS",
        "META",
        "AMD"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b13b8604a5",
      "title": "美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13b8604a5/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f49a801354be/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "A 股高股息防御能否真正隔离全球去杠杆：陆股通北向、两融与解禁的传导检验",
          "summary": "A 股高股息防御能否真正隔离全球去杠杆：陆股通北向、两融与解禁的传导检验",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f873b3185379/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：BEA 之后——保留广义美元 delta，把日元凸性带过 BOJ 窗口",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：BEA 之后——保留广义美元 delta，把日元凸性带过 BOJ 窗口",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eceee376af65/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "KWEB",
        "FXY"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4e383ee09c",
      "title": "2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4e383ee09c/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 3,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Hyperscaler capex 轨迹与算力架构：平台期还是再加速，ASIC 侵蚀商用 GPU/HBM 到什么程度？",
          "summary": "Hyperscaler capex 轨迹与算力架构：平台期还是再加速，ASIC 侵蚀商用 GPU/HBM 到什么程度？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-55786a85f70e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "截至2026-07-29的hyperscaler capex融资持久性压测 [S0]",
          "summary": "截至2026-07-29的hyperscaler capex融资持久性压测 [S0]",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f45e34d16147/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI 基础设施 capex 能否吸收 HBM 涨价冲击？",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师（ ai-infrastructure-analyst ） 工作日期： 2026-07-29（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： 支持（support，支持根主题的稀缺性溢价判断） 根主题： HBM 市...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c0c2c10d9b3f/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-9d3836cc07",
      "title": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证",
      "titleEn": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d3836cc07/",
      "laneId": "lane_008e3bd9306a",
      "lane": "AI 软件效率/生产率",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-software-productivity/",
      "direction": "stable",
      "directionLabel": "稳定",
      "conviction": 58,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI 基础设施 capex 能否吸收 HBM 涨价冲击？",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师（ ai-infrastructure-analyst ） 工作日期： 2026-07-29（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： 支持（support，支持根主题的稀缺性溢价判断） 根主题： HBM 市...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c0c2c10d9b3f/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "超大规模厂商AI资本开支对内存/存储承诺的兑付耐久性，2026-07-29",
          "summary": "超大规模厂商AI资本开支对内存/存储承诺的兑付耐久性，2026-07-29",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b08b4dc04f72/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "研究记录 03 AI 基础设施交付压力测试 工作日期 2026-07-29 [S0]",
          "summary": "研究记录 03 AI 基础设施交付压力测试 工作日期 2026-07-29 [S0]",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-08e9a64feac6/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL",
        "NVDA",
        "NOW",
        "CRM",
        "ADBE"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a0828c5498",
      "title": "在两融余额突破3.015万亿元且电子板块平均CMR跌至138.55%的背景下，下周一强平盘（约1460亿）释放是否会刺穿市场底？组合应如…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在两融余额突破3.015万亿元且电子板块平均CMR跌至138.55%的背景下，下周一强平盘（约1460亿）释放是否会刺穿市场底？组合应如…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a0828c5498/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 82,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "USD/CNY 有序贬值下的 A 股红利重排与两融压力残留",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 工作日期： 2026-07-29（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师： A 股策略师（ ashare-strategist ）· 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） - 根主题： Warsh 治下的美联储与 2026 年 7 月 FOMC——...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99aa19fd9608/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "压力测试 3.2 / 2.6 / 2.2 红利能源袖套：流通盘、两融余额与拥挤度对利率上行 / 红利因子踩踏的抵...",
          "summary": "压力测试 3.2 / 2.6 / 2.2 红利能源袖套：流通盘、两融余额与拥挤度对利率上行 / 红利因子踩踏的抵抗力",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-720b2d62af34/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "510300.SH",
        "512100.SH",
        "588000.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f23572dfb8",
      "title": "Advance th_p_2ca41751 (能源价格冲突引发的全球通胀路径分化): 若 Brent 在停火提案与航运威胁之间维持 85…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Advance th_p_2ca41751 (能源价格冲突引发的全球通胀路径分化): 若 Brent 在停火提案与航运威胁之间维持 85…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f23572dfb8/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：7月FOMC风险的核心不是25 bp，而是反应函数不确定性",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：7月FOMC风险的核心不是25 bp，而是反应函数不确定性",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-31b073c64a40/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "压力测试：油价再通胀向10Y收益率的传导，及1.85–1.90%再加仓阈值",
          "summary": "压力测试：油价再通胀向10Y收益率的传导，及1.85–1.90%再加仓阈值",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5f87fb599b0c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "0857.HK",
        "SLB"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d03c2555a8",
      "title": "美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d03c2555a8/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "原油市场监测：WTI/布伦特、OPEC+与库存",
          "summary": "报告日期锚点：2026-07-29（由 系统日期锚 取得）。本报告将“上一交易日”定义为截至该日期已完成结算的 2026-07-28。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3142ad976e75/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：油价冲击、Warsh美联储与AI电力加仓闸门",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：油价冲击、Warsh美联储与AI电力加仓闸门",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-915fedb58de6/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "SLB",
        "OXY"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-5a0bd732f3",
      "title": "A股杠铃策略应落地为“红利蓝筹压舱 + 硬科技成长进攻 + 轮动仓位调节”的三层结构，两融是成长端驱动力，ETF赎回和限售股解禁是仓位上限。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股杠铃策略应落地为“红利蓝筹压舱 + 硬科技成长进攻 + 轮动仓位调节”的三层结构，两融是成长端驱动力，ETF赎回和限售股解禁是仓位上限。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5a0bd732f3/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "研究记录-03 — 半导体加仓名单的两融与ETF流持续性确认",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 作者角色： 首席策略师（Chief Strategist） 工作日期： 2026-07-29（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场： 支持（分层闸门框架）—— 但对G1的即刻升级给出「不升级」结论 根议题： A股两融降杠...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-090c53931061/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
          "summary": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1852a3871dfe/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "588000.SH",
        "510300.SH",
        "300750.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-950a54ea98",
      "title": "保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-950a54ea98/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f49a801354be/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 — USD/CNH对冲工具、期限选择与carry预算",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 — USD/CNH对冲工具、期限选择与carry预算",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd2590c1bc57/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a4bf9a5c22",
      "title": "在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a4bf9a5c22/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
          "summary": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1852a3871dfe/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "研究记录-03 — 半导体加仓名单的两融与ETF流持续性确认",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 作者角色： 首席策略师（Chief Strategist） 工作日期： 2026-07-29（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场： 支持（分层闸门框架）—— 但对G1的即刻升级给出「不升级」结论 根议题： A股两融降杠...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-090c53931061/",
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        }
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        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688012.SH",
        "688041.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "588000.SH"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-0e8748c14f",
      "title": "科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e8748c14f/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
          "summary": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1852a3871dfe/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "研究记录-03 — 半导体加仓名单的两融与ETF流持续性确认",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 作者角色： 首席策略师（Chief Strategist） 工作日期： 2026-07-29（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场： 支持（分层闸门框架）—— 但对G1的即刻升级给出「不升级」结论 根议题： A股两融降杠...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-090c53931061/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "688012.SH"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e58a9e8746",
      "title": "日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e58a9e8746/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f49a801354be/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 首席策略师研究记录07：若 USD/JPY regime 断裂被确认，跨资产重配如何落地",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 首席策略师研究记录07：若 USD/JPY regime 断裂被确认，跨资产重配如何落地",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c8eb0e67271e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
      ]
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    {
      "id": "thesis-a13f19ec2d",
      "title": "红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a13f19ec2d/",
      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "银行B1超配的A股市场实施：资金流、红利拥挤度与大盘因子暴露",
          "summary": "研究 研究记录 分析师： ashare-strategist（A股策略师） · 任务： 哑铃组合的市场结构落地 工作日期： 2026-07-29（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： 综合（synthesize）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3a28faf99f74/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 A股风格阈值仪表盘：两融、Stock Connect持仓与6.88汇率触发",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 A股风格阈值仪表盘：两融、Stock Connect持仓与6.88汇率触发",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-20646b89d24b/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "601398.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "510880.SH",
        "600941.SH",
        "601088.SH"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-8ca3d181f3",
      "title": "能源价格重心的下移提供了一次缓和全球“滞胀”压力的正向供给冲击，虽然成功消解了美欧央行的强行加息风险，但在低储蓄率、物流滞后与-273…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源价格重心的下移提供了一次缓和全球“滞胀”压力的正向供给冲击，虽然成功消解了美欧央行的强行加息风险，但在低储蓄率、物流滞后与-273…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8ca3d181f3/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "截至 2026-07-29 的美联储反应函数、美元/利率路径与人民币闸门 A 持久性",
          "summary": "截至 2026-07-29 的美联储反应函数、美元/利率路径与人民币闸门 A 持久性",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1c6afb327e2a/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：油价冲击、Warsh美联储与AI电力加仓闸门",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：油价冲击、Warsh美联储与AI电力加仓闸门",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-915fedb58de6/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-5be4c31f4e",
      "title": "6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5be4c31f4e/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "通往 2026-07-29 的美联储反应函数——美元这条腿的闸门变量",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-19（Asia/Singapore）。research note。分析师：global-macro。立场：synthesize（综合）。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5a931717d970/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "美联储—日本央行分化下的日元套息交易：韧性、凸性与干预线",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） 立场： 压力测试（针对 既有研究记录）· 工作日期： 2026-07-29（亚洲/新加坡） 主题： 美联储—日本央行分化下的 USD/JPY 套...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9d8088c54477/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "IEF",
        "UUP"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-c951442d7f",
      "title": "日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c951442d7f/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f49a801354be/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 首席策略师研究记录07：若 USD/JPY regime 断裂被确认，跨资产重配如何落地",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 首席策略师研究记录07：若 USD/JPY regime 断裂被确认，跨资产重配如何落地",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c8eb0e67271e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
      ]
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    {
      "id": "thesis-ace402c8b6",
      "title": "科创板极端护盘对A股整体流动性的虹吸效应与跨板块资产配置调整 研究日期： 2026 05 22 作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Str…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创板极端护盘对A股整体流动性的虹吸效应与跨板块资产配置调整 研究日期： 2026 05 22 作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Str…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ace402c8b6/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 A股压力测试：7月30日PCE后的两融余额与分红风格阈值图",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 A股压力测试：7月30日PCE后的两融余额与分红风格阈值图",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3105244226bf/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "将下半年财政执行节点映射为A股宽度、两融与行业轮动触发器",
          "summary": "研究记录 分析师： chief-strategist（首席策略师）· 工作日： 2026-07-29（亚洲/新加坡） 主题： 把下半年财政执行的关键节点，映射为具体的A股宽度指标、两融行业流向信号，以及能 最早 验证...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ed74f03ffe9b/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "P",
        "TLT",
        "IEF"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-11523cabbd",
      "title": "熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-11523cabbd/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "summary": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d648c08f870e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 — USD/CNH对冲工具、期限选择与carry预算",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 — USD/CNH对冲工具、期限选择与carry预算",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd2590c1bc57/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-6fd1b8808d",
      "title": "资金成本上行与长端利率有锚下的A股风格轮动和金融板块配置",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 资金成本上行与长端利率有锚下的A股风格轮动和金融板块配置",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6fd1b8808d/",
      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "银行B1超配的A股市场实施：资金流、红利拥挤度与大盘因子暴露",
          "summary": "研究 研究记录 分析师： ashare-strategist（A股策略师） · 任务： 哑铃组合的市场结构落地 工作日期： 2026-07-29（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： 综合（synthesize）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3a28faf99f74/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 金融业压力测试：银行NIM与信用传导能否限制A股流动性扩散？",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 金融业压力测试：银行NIM与信用传导能否限制A股流动性扩散？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a5562322193c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "601088.SH",
        "601398.SH",
        "600941.SH",
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      "id": "thesis-a7f43e67af",
      "title": "在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？",
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      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
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          "title": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：油价冲击、Warsh美联储与AI电力加仓闸门",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：油价冲击、Warsh美联储与AI电力加仓闸门",
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        {
          "title": "Warsh 联储的首次\"活会\":鹰派按兵不动 vs. 意外加息(2026年7月FOMC)",
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      "title": "2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向",
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          "title": "截至 2026-07-29 的美联储反应函数、美元/利率路径与人民币闸门 A 持久性",
          "summary": "截至 2026-07-29 的美联储反应函数、美元/利率路径与人民币闸门 A 持久性",
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          "title": "美联储—中国政策分化下的 USD/CNY 之谜：人民币为何在美联储偏鹰之际仍坚挺",
          "summary": "美联储—中国政策分化下的 USD/CNY 之谜：人民币为何在美联储偏鹰之际仍坚挺",
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          "summary": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
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      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 北美大型云厂商因53个月并网等待和PJM容量价格触及上限，面临80-290bn的Capex下修延期压力，这如何重塑全球AI算力及AS…",
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          "summary": "Hyperscaler capex 轨迹与算力架构：平台期还是再加速，ASIC 侵蚀商用 GPU/HBM 到什么程度？",
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      "id": "thesis-10f0672291",
      "title": "科创50单日+8.41%后，团队应把硬科技升为中期主线，还是在两融、广度、ETF申赎确认前按拥挤反弹处理？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50单日+8.41%后，团队应把硬科技升为中期主线，还是在两融、广度、ETF申赎确认前按拥挤反弹处理？",
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      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
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      "events": [
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          "title": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
          "summary": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
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        {
          "title": "研究记录-03 — 半导体加仓名单的两融与ETF流持续性确认",
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    {
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      "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层",
      "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/",
      "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a",
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        {
          "title": "研究记录 03 AI 基础设施交付压力测试 工作日期 2026-07-29 [S0]",
          "summary": "研究记录 03 AI 基础设施交付压力测试 工作日期 2026-07-29 [S0]",
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        "AVGO",
        "AAPL",
        "TSLA"
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      "id": "thesis-83a30b141f",
      "title": "美伊直接交火导致原油暴涨5-6%，布伦特突破79美元逼近80。这是否会引燃二次通胀，推翻债市对美联储‘因分裂而暂停加息’的假设，并在9月…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美伊直接交火导致原油暴涨5-6%，布伦特突破79美元逼近80。这是否会引燃二次通胀，推翻债市对美联储‘因分裂而暂停加息’的假设，并在9月…",
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          "title": "截至 2026-07-29 的美联储反应函数、美元/利率路径与人民币闸门 A 持久性",
          "summary": "截至 2026-07-29 的美联储反应函数、美元/利率路径与人民币闸门 A 持久性",
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      "id": "thesis-40b8638803",
      "title": "全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…",
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          "summary": "Hyperscaler capex 轨迹与算力架构：平台期还是再加速，ASIC 侵蚀商用 GPU/HBM 到什么程度？",
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        {
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          "summary": "2026-07-29 — HBM瓶颈向封装/制程迁移时的A股定价与行业轮动",
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      "title": "散户情绪与北向资金背离是 A 股风险偏好的关键温度计",
      "titleEn": "Retail sentiment versus northbound flow divergence is the key A-share risk thermometer",
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      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
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        {
          "title": "§1 THESIS",
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          "title": "A 股高股息防御能否真正隔离全球去杠杆：陆股通北向、两融与解禁的传导检验",
          "summary": "A 股高股息防御能否真正隔离全球去杠杆：陆股通北向、两融与解禁的传导检验",
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      "titleEn": "Options gamma, ETFs, and closing liquidity are amplifying microstructure risk in theme trades",
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      "id": "thesis-3986819dc0",
      "title": "A 股半导体的核心风险从订单验证转向 A/H 溢价、两融与负 Gamma",
      "titleEn": "A-share semiconductor risk is shifting from order proof to A/H premium, margin financing, and negative gamma",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3986819dc0/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 61,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
          "summary": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1852a3871dfe/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 — HBM瓶颈向封装/制程迁移时的A股定价与行业轮动",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 — HBM瓶颈向封装/制程迁移时的A股定价与行业轮动",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0b03dbdc0c4a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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        "688256.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "600900.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "300308.SZ",
        "002371.SZ"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-075017003b",
      "title": "AI 资本开支通过能源、设备和利率进入通胀定价",
      "titleEn": "AI capex enters inflation pricing through energy, equipment, and rates",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-075017003b/",
      "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08",
      "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "stable",
      "directionLabel": "稳定",
      "conviction": 55,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "被睡过去的利率传导链：Warsh 联储正在重定价长久期 AI capex",
          "summary": "被睡过去的利率传导链：Warsh 联储正在重定价长久期 AI capex",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-952aacce828b/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29：AI capex融资压力的跨资产配置规则",
          "summary": "既有研究记录 · 首席策略师 · 工作日期：2026-07-29（Asia/Singapore） 立场: synthesize 承接: 全球宏观分析师（既有研究记录）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b5b6e776b236/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL",
        "XLE",
        "TLT",
        "XLU",
        "NVDA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-42faeae623",
      "title": "CPO、光互联与铜连接决定 AI 集群内部租金迁移",
      "titleEn": "CPO, optical interconnect, and copper links define rent migration inside AI clusters",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-42faeae623/",
      "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956",
      "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 55,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Hyperscaler capex 轨迹与算力架构：平台期还是再加速，ASIC 侵蚀商用 GPU/HBM 到什么程度？",
          "summary": "Hyperscaler capex 轨迹与算力架构：平台期还是再加速，ASIC 侵蚀商用 GPU/HBM 到什么程度？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-55786a85f70e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "把 Mag7 capex/FCF 门槛映射到 HBM、DRAM、设备、光模块及 A 股半导体标的：谁仍是瓶颈层，谁从受...",
          "summary": "把 Mag7 capex/FCF 门槛映射到 HBM、DRAM、设备、光模块及 A 股半导体标的：谁仍是瓶颈层，谁从受益者切换为库存/订单风险",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7f98bc124295/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      ],
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        "300308.SZ",
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        "COHR",
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        "300394.SZ",
        "MRVL",
        "TSM",
        "MSFT"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-ce29facfbd",
      "title": "中国资产定价仍受政策、流动性与风险偏好共同驱动",
      "titleEn": "China asset pricing remains driven by policy, liquidity, and risk appetite",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ce29facfbd/",
      "laneId": "lane_a8d9c69ae883",
      "lane": "中国权益流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-equity-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 52,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "今日市场资金流向分析（北向 / 主力 / 融资 / ETF）",
          "summary": "日期：2026-07-29（周三，收盘视角）｜分析师：市场情绪师（sentiment-analyst）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bf1886be6b4c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 A股策略：窄基半导体行情能否扩散为指数级上行？",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 首席策略师（ chief-strategist ）· 立场： 综合 研究所工作日： 2026-07-29（Asia/Singapore）· 接力基础： 中国渐进、数量主导宽松叠加坚挺人民币",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b86bfbab3ce9/",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "300308.SZ",
        "0700.HK",
        "9988.HK",
        "510300.SH",
        "159915.SZ",
        "300750.SZ",
        "3988.HK",
        "588000.SH",
        "LOW"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-9a860a8801",
      "title": "信用再融资压力正在把利率风险转化为资产负债表筛选",
      "titleEn": "Credit refinancing pressure is turning rate risk into balance-sheet selection",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a860a8801/",
      "laneId": "lane_b29e1d216a21",
      "lane": "信用再融资/私募信贷",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/credit-refinancing-and-private-debt/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 52,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "数据中心ABS/SPV信用条款压力测试，2026-07-29",
          "summary": "截至机构工作日期2026-07-29，我对 th p 0a8029c8 做压力测试而非完全验证：当前数据中心ABS、SPV租约融资、mini-perm贷款和私募信贷条款已经出现真实的结构收紧和清算利差上移，但公开证据还不...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c3db96a2f7d2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "信用分析师午间碰头会简报（2026-07-29）",
          "summary": "日期锚点：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-29；本文所有“今日 / 昨日 / 上周 / 上一交易日 / 下午”均按该日期解析。[S0] - 连续性检查：已读取 my recent reports.md 、 my disputed clai...",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "JPM",
        "META",
        "BX",
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      "id": "thesis-485a630a87",
      "title": "自动驾驶与 Robotaxi 主题必须从演示热度进入单位经济和监管城市扩张验证",
      "titleEn": "Autonomous driving and robotaxi themes must move from demo excitement to unit economics and regulated city expansion",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-485a630a87/",
      "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da",
      "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 51,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "更高 WACC 下，俄亥俄 AI 基础设施融资结构能否落地并滚续？",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 立场： 综合（Synthesize） 工作日期： 2026-07-29（Asia/Singapore）· 根议题： AI capex 是真实需求、循环融资，还是两者同时成立...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0fd8e6ecd954/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "超大规模厂商 capex 与 FCF 压力测试：需求仍在加速，但现金流约束已成为真正催化剂",
          "summary": "超大规模厂商 capex 与 FCF 压力测试：需求仍在加速，但现金流约束已成为真正催化剂",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-691de77b6515/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GOOGL",
        "TSLA",
        "NVDA",
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        "AMZN",
        "BIDU",
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        "2015.HK"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a803fa3312",
      "title": "美联储路径仍是全球资产再定价的总阀门",
      "titleEn": "The Fed path remains the master valve for global asset repricing",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a803fa3312/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 46,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "截至 2026-07-29 的美联储反应函数、美元/利率路径与人民币闸门 A 持久性",
          "summary": "截至 2026-07-29 的美联储反应函数、美元/利率路径与人民币闸门 A 持久性",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1c6afb327e2a/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "通往 2026-07-29 的美联储反应函数——美元这条腿的闸门变量",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-19（Asia/Singapore）。research note。分析师：global-macro。立场：synthesize（综合）。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5a931717d970/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "CME",
        "TLT",
        "JPM",
        "KRE",
        "GLD",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-59f298ff36",
      "title": "在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-59f298ff36/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 84,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
          "summary": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1852a3871dfe/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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      ],
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        "688041.SH",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-813fa71c15",
      "title": "科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-813fa71c15/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 84,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
          "summary": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1852a3871dfe/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688256.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688008.SH",
        "688041.SH",
        "688012.SH"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f5f184ba4e",
      "title": "在美联储偏鹰暂停、美债收益率攀升至4.66%的背景下，国内电子行业两融余额高悬至5722.82亿元是否面临负Gamma清算压力？如何重构…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在美联储偏鹰暂停、美债收益率攀升至4.66%的背景下，国内电子行业两融余额高悬至5722.82亿元是否面临负Gamma清算压力？如何重构…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5f184ba4e/",
      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "USD/CNY 有序贬值下的 A 股红利重排与两融压力残留",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 工作日期： 2026-07-29（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师： A 股策略师（ ashare-strategist ）· 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） - 根主题： Warsh 治下的美联储与 2026 年 7 月 FOMC——...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99aa19fd9608/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4f541b33ff",
      "title": "美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f541b33ff/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f49a801354be/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4b64fc19f4",
      "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b64fc19f4/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f49a801354be/",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-58f268edf9",
      "title": "隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-58f268edf9/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
          "summary": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1852a3871dfe/",
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        "688981.SH",
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        "688041.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688008.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e4e956cd41",
      "title": "通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e4e956cd41/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 FOMC后、BEA前的USD/JPY看跌价差执行方案",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 FOMC后、BEA前的USD/JPY看跌价差执行方案",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3090c9344dd6/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-80c15f4a7d",
      "title": "再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-80c15f4a7d/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
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          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
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      "id": "thesis-07b4ef2695",
      "title": "地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-07b4ef2695/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：油价冲击、Warsh美联储与AI电力加仓闸门",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：油价冲击、Warsh美联储与AI电力加仓闸门",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-915fedb58de6/",
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "CVX",
        "XOM"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-307b7fe2cb",
      "title": "美联储7月两难：Warsh鹰派点阵图 vs 开裂的劳动力市场与消退的伊朗油价冲击",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储7月两难：Warsh鹰派点阵图 vs 开裂的劳动力市场与消退的伊朗油价冲击",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-307b7fe2cb/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：油价冲击、Warsh美联储与AI电力加仓闸门",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：油价冲击、Warsh美联储与AI电力加仓闸门",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-915fedb58de6/",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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      "stockTickers": [
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-a3440bf2a4",
      "title": "中东停火信号下的油价风险应如何重定价",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中东停火信号下的油价风险应如何重定价",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a3440bf2a4/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
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      "neutral": 0,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：油价冲击、Warsh美联储与AI电力加仓闸门",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：油价冲击、Warsh美联储与AI电力加仓闸门",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-915fedb58de6/",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-bafd2ff8e7",
      "title": "今日是MSCI半年度重估正式生效日。虽然散户由于昨日创业板+1.96%的V型反弹而呈现极度FOMO，但A股两融余额正高挂于2.9367万…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 今日是MSCI半年度重估正式生效日。虽然散户由于昨日创业板+1.96%的V型反弹而呈现极度FOMO，但A股两融余额正高挂于2.9367万…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bafd2ff8e7/",
      "laneId": "lane_122bdfde6ea9",
      "lane": "指数调仓/被动资金事件",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/index-rebalance-and-passive-flow-events/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
          "summary": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "MCHI",
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      "id": "thesis-dfa08317f5",
      "title": "博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-dfa08317f5/",
      "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956",
      "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
          "summary": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1852a3871dfe/",
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      "stockTickers": [
        "300308.SZ",
        "300394.SZ",
        "300502.SZ"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-d74ae315e8",
      "title": "当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d74ae315e8/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
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      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 FOMC后、BEA前的USD/JPY看跌价差执行方案",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 FOMC后、BEA前的USD/JPY看跌价差执行方案",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3090c9344dd6/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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        "IEF",
        "UUP"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-0011ad682c",
      "title": "美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0011ad682c/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
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      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f49a801354be/",
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "JPM",
        "TLT",
        "IEF"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-69025fa4b4",
      "title": "驱动对冲阶梯的 Fed / BoJ / ECB 政策路径",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 驱动对冲阶梯的 Fed / BoJ / ECB 政策路径",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-69025fa4b4/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 FOMC后、BEA前的USD/JPY看跌价差执行方案",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 FOMC后、BEA前的USD/JPY看跌价差执行方案",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3090c9344dd6/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-eefbf1a467",
      "title": "中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-eefbf1a467/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储—中国政策分化下的 USD/CNY 之谜：人民币为何在美联储偏鹰之际仍坚挺",
          "summary": "美联储—中国政策分化下的 USD/CNY 之谜：人民币为何在美联储偏鹰之际仍坚挺",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-79956f5e2328/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3cafa5bcd5",
      "title": "在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cafa5bcd5/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 首席策略师研究记录 08：USD/JPY融资断裂确认后的A股高股息轮动执行方案",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 首席策略师研究记录 08：USD/JPY融资断裂确认后的A股高股息轮动执行方案",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e6fec950c8ab/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "UUP",
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4be65dd130",
      "title": "基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4be65dd130/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：油价冲击、Warsh美联储与AI电力加仓闸门",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：油价冲击、Warsh美联储与AI电力加仓闸门",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-915fedb58de6/",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
        "0883.HK"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-e40b25962e",
      "title": "A股“大行+红利/稀缺成长”哑铃配置在低杠杆与高可视度Backlog支撑下并未拥挤，而弱区域中小银行因资产质量二阶传导滞后与重度稀释风险…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股“大行+红利/稀缺成长”哑铃配置在低杠杆与高可视度Backlog支撑下并未拥挤，而弱区域中小银行因资产质量二阶传导滞后与重度稀释风险…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e40b25962e/",
      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
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      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "银行B1超配的A股市场实施：资金流、红利拥挤度与大盘因子暴露",
          "summary": "研究 研究记录 分析师： ashare-strategist（A股策略师） · 任务： 哑铃组合的市场结构落地 工作日期： 2026-07-29（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： 综合（synthesize）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3a28faf99f74/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "601398.SH",
        "601088.SH",
        "600941.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-7930de9cdc",
      "title": "沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7930de9cdc/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储—中国政策分化下的 USD/CNY 之谜：人民币为何在美联储偏鹰之际仍坚挺",
          "summary": "美联储—中国政策分化下的 USD/CNY 之谜：人民币为何在美联储偏鹰之际仍坚挺",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-79956f5e2328/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-859ab241bf",
      "title": "依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-859ab241bf/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "把全球内存/AI基础设施双时钟框架转化为A股仓位：电网设备轴心 vs 去杠杆国内AI硬件",
          "summary": "把全球内存/AI基础设施双时钟框架转化为A股仓位：电网设备轴心 vs 去杠杆国内AI硬件",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-88add527a6f0/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "NVDA",
        "ASML",
        "688012.SH",
        "000660.KS",
        "MU",
        "002916.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-97f10202a2",
      "title": "中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-97f10202a2/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储—中国政策分化下的 USD/CNY 之谜：人民币为何在美联储偏鹰之际仍坚挺",
          "summary": "美联储—中国政策分化下的 USD/CNY 之谜：人民币为何在美联储偏鹰之际仍坚挺",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-79956f5e2328/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3bf2a3ec55",
      "title": "请先统一事实读数与压力情景：CNH HIBOR 12.00%和USD/JPY 162.18应否进入今日基准？若仅为情景，A股β≈0.28…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请先统一事实读数与压力情景：CNH HIBOR 12.00%和USD/JPY 162.18应否进入今日基准？若仅为情景，A股β≈0.28…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3bf2a3ec55/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-29 — USD/CNH、CNH/JPY、A股高股息、EM科技、黄金与日元凸性的最终组合规则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f49a801354be/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e12bcc0d59",
      "title": "PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e12bcc0d59/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "USD/CNY 有序贬值下的 A 股红利重排与两融压力残留",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 工作日期： 2026-07-29（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师： A 股策略师（ ashare-strategist ）· 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） - 根主题： Warsh 治下的美联储与 2026 年 7 月 FOMC——...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99aa19fd9608/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "588000.SH",
        "510300.SH",
        "512100.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-2aa156c4c9",
      "title": "2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2aa156c4c9/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储—中国政策分化下的 USD/CNY 之谜：人民币为何在美联储偏鹰之际仍坚挺",
          "summary": "美联储—中国政策分化下的 USD/CNY 之谜：人民币为何在美联储偏鹰之际仍坚挺",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-79956f5e2328/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-54a65a88ba",
      "title": "请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-54a65a88ba/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "summary": "人民币能否守住去杠杆总闸门？压力测试 USD/CNH 是否破位并逼出第二轮两融级联",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d648c08f870e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "UUP",
        "FXI",
        "2800.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-9cd2a72630",
      "title": "在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9cd2a72630/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：油价冲击、Warsh美联储与AI电力加仓闸门",
          "summary": "2026-07-29 全球宏观研究记录：油价冲击、Warsh美联储与AI电力加仓闸门",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-915fedb58de6/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "JPM",
        "TLT",
        "IEF"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-820459973e",
      "title": "在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-820459973e/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "把全球内存/AI基础设施双时钟框架转化为A股仓位：电网设备轴心 vs 去杠杆国内AI硬件",
          "summary": "把全球内存/AI基础设施双时钟框架转化为A股仓位：电网设备轴心 vs 去杠杆国内AI硬件",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-88add527a6f0/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "002028.SZ",
        "ETN",
        "601179.SH",
        "600089.SH",
        "CEG",
        "VST"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-2a7c29557b",
      "title": "在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2a7c29557b/",
      "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87",
      "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Hyperscaler capex 轨迹与算力架构：平台期还是再加速，ASIC 侵蚀商用 GPU/HBM 到什么程度？",
          "summary": "Hyperscaler capex 轨迹与算力架构：平台期还是再加速，ASIC 侵蚀商用 GPU/HBM 到什么程度？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-55786a85f70e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "AMD",
        "VRT"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b13c7cf092",
      "title": "高纯石英材料受益于先进封装扩产，但兑现取决于认证与产品结构",
      "titleEn": "High-purity quartz can benefit from advanced-packaging expansion, conditional on qualification and mix",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13c7cf092/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 70,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "把 Mag7 capex/FCF 门槛映射到 HBM、DRAM、设备、光模块及 A 股半导体标的：谁仍是瓶颈层，谁从受...",
          "summary": "把 Mag7 capex/FCF 门槛映射到 HBM、DRAM、设备、光模块及 A 股半导体标的：谁仍是瓶颈层，谁从受益者切换为库存/订单风险",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7f98bc124295/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "NVDA",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS",
        "ASML",
        "688012.SH",
        "002916.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-2fe5298427",
      "title": "Sivers (SIVE:STO) 概念被供应链证伪，而国内电子板块融资余额高达5608亿元，四大半导体龙头两融保证金缺口达93.81亿…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Sivers (SIVE:STO) 概念被供应链证伪，而国内电子板块融资余额高达5608亿元，四大半导体龙头两融保证金缺口达93.81亿…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2fe5298427/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 69,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
          "summary": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1852a3871dfe/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688256.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "588000.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-ffa474a3f2",
      "title": "端侧 AI 与 Agent 桌面正在把算力竞争从云端扩展到芯片、OS 与消费电子供应链",
      "titleEn": "Edge AI and agent desktops are extending compute competition from cloud to chips, OS, and consumer-electronics supply...",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ffa474a3f2/",
      "laneId": "lane_74d352e86208",
      "lane": "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/edge-ai-and-agent-desktop-cycle/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 68,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "MSFT 近端催化剂",
          "summary": "近端最重要的 MSFT 催化剂不是单一产品发布，而是 FY27 Q1 对“Azure 高增速 + capex 继续上行 + FCF 仍为正”的再验证。Microsoft 在 2026-07-29 FY26 Q4 电话会上指引 FY27 Q1 总收入 $89.85...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-15d64b6550ad/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "MSFT",
        "NVDA",
        "META",
        "AAPL",
        "AMZN",
        "AMD",
        "ARM",
        "QCOM",
        "GOOGL",
        "002475.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-34ed317472",
      "title": "A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-34ed317472/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
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      "events": [
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          "title": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
          "summary": "A股两融、ETF与科创50宽度：检验\"被动去拥挤\" —— 2026-07-29",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-31f32af77b",
      "title": "中国云与国产算力栈的关键不是模型热度，而是训练/推理订单、服务器交付和生态锁定",
      "titleEn": "China cloud and local compute stacks depend less on model hype than training/inference orders, server delivery, and e...",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-31f32af77b/",
      "laneId": "lane_2997650d0638",
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          "title": "AI算力资本开支周期，真能撑起国产算力链上极致的公募拥挤吗？",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： AI基础设施分析师（ ai-infrastructure-analyst ） 工作日（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-07-29 · 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 根主题： 2026-07-29——中国2026年上半年宏...",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-a10279b001",
      "title": "面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…",
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          "summary": "Hyperscaler capex 轨迹与算力架构：平台期还是再加速，ASIC 侵蚀商用 GPU/HBM 到什么程度？",
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          "summary": "Hyperscaler capex 轨迹与算力架构：平台期还是再加速，ASIC 侵蚀商用 GPU/HBM 到什么程度？",
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      "titleEn": "GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging shape the AI capex supply cycle",
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          "summary": "Hyperscaler capex 轨迹与算力架构：平台期还是再加速，ASIC 侵蚀商用 GPU/HBM 到什么程度？",
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          "summary": "超大规模厂商 capex 与 FCF 压力测试：需求仍在加速，但现金流约束已成为真正催化剂",
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      "titleEn": "High-margin export materials require confirmation of profit recovery",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f2d0121d3/",
      "laneId": "lane_7e439482cbef",
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    {
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      "titleEn": "General reducer recovery precedes realization of the robotics option",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5505b40cdb/",
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      "titleEn": "MSCI rebalance windows are liquidity events where passive demand meets active exits",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-029ce03da1/",
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      "title": "高纯石英材料需求需由先进封装订单验证",
      "titleEn": "High-purity quartz demand requires validation from advanced-packaging orders",
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      "titleEn": "Property, land finance, and REITs are the slow variables behind China's credit floor",
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          "summary": "前序研究 — 地产/城投信用链恶化的真实速度：它是否足以侵蚀四大行的净利润分母？",
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    {
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      "title": "显示材料改善需由利润率与现金流共同确认",
      "titleEn": "Display-material recovery requires joint margin and cash-flow confirmation",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-241377c8be/",
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      "title": "航空航天与国防供应链错配正在形成政策驱动的制造业弹性",
      "titleEn": "Aerospace and defense supply-chain mismatch is creating policy-driven manufacturing beta",
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      "events": [
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          "title": "国产HBM本土化是否会提前压缩AI硬件利润池？",
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      "titleEn": "Bond supply, local-government debt, and duration demand define room for rates to fall",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fd31cc177b/",
      "laneId": "lane_6fbf93c613f9",
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          "title": "约2.61万亿三季度地方债供给高峰的曲线吸收与久期定位（工作日 2026-07-29）",
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      "titleEn": "Data-center real estate, liquid cooling, and water resources are deciding regional migration of AI capacity",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7f0a75c5f6/",
      "laneId": "lane_0679894fe06b",
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      "events": [
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          "summary": "研究记录 05 把红黄绿通电闸门映射到 2027 收入确认风险 工作日 2026-07-29 [S0]",
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      "titleEn": "Yen carry unwind is a tail liquidity risk for EM tech, offshore China, and high-beta themes",
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      "conviction": 52,
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      "events": [
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      "title": "2026-07-29 每日综合：流动性仍在，信用与实物传导决定行情上限",
      "titleEn": "",
      "summary": "相较7月28日，真正新增的不是宏观通胀与AI基础设施继续保持高研究热度，而是三条更具体的组合边界。第一，中国政府债余额同比增长14.2%，但上半年基建投资同比下降2.4%、6月固定资产投资同比下降5.7%，说明财政供给主要在稳偿付和置换旧债，尚未形成支持全面指数牛市的活动乘数；这与6月贷款增速降至5.2%、银行净息差约1.40%—1.42%的弱信用传导相互印证。第二，红利内部需要按汇率和久期重排：有序人民币走弱时，美元收入石油优于已压缩收益率的煤炭，运营商因股息和现金流不应与长久期电力一起减弱；600900.SH…",
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          "view": "政府债券余额同比增长14.2%至101.36万亿元，而上半年基建投资同比下降2.4%、6月固定资产投资同比下降5.7%；专项债中约8.2%被报告估算为新项目资本金。观察事实指向财政融资扩张，分析师解释则是多数资金用于再融资、土储和债务置换。叠加贷款增速5.2%与银行低净息差，数量流动性更可能托住大盘和公共信用，而不是自动生成广谱盈利牛市。",
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          "view": "当人民币在报告设定的6.90—7.00区间有序走弱时，美元收入石油获得折算对冲；煤炭收益率已经压缩，不能再被视为无条件高于运营商的carry替代。运营商仍具较高股息和轻资本现金流，而水电、绿电等债券替代资产更直接暴露于中国长端利率上升。",
          "whyItMatters": "同属红利标签的0883.HK、601088.SH、600941.SH、600900.SH与600905.SH具有不同的汇率和久期传导，等权处理会掩盖当天最有决策价值的重排。"
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          "title": "鹰派美联储延长套息跑道，也加厚无保护的平仓尾部",
          "view": "全球宏观报告以鹰派按兵不动为基准，并认为油价反通胀可能暂时；压力测试进一步指出，套息平仓不必等待美日利差收窄，美债长端和股指已实现波动率飙升即可触发VaR去杠杆。日本财务省干预主要对抗日元贬值，无法保护日元急升造成的套息损失。",
          "whyItMatters": "若USD/JPY从高位快速下行并伴随波动率上升，高流动性科技资产如TSM可能成为资金回笼渠道；因此宏观风险不能只用美元方向或利差水平判断。"
        }
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    {
      "id": "power-grid",
      "labelZh": "电力与电网",
      "labelEn": "Power and grid",
      "color": "green",
      "keywords": [
        "电力",
        "电网",
        "power",
        "grid",
        "变压器",
        "并网",
        "ppa",
        "核电",
        "电气设备"
      ],
      "count": 19
    },
    {
      "id": "ai-infrastructure",
      "labelZh": "AI 基础设施",
      "labelEn": "AI infrastructure",
      "color": "blue",
      "keywords": [
        "ai 基础设施",
        "ai infrastructure",
        "算力",
        "gpu",
        "数据中心",
        "data center",
        "nvda",
        "nvidia"
      ],
      "count": 15
    },
    {
      "id": "china-assets",
      "labelZh": "中国资产与市场结构",
      "labelEn": "China assets and market structure",
      "color": "orange",
      "keywords": [
        "a股",
        "港股",
        "科创50",
        "star50",
        "中国资产",
        "msci",
        "两融",
        "人民币"
      ],
      "count": 12
    },
    {
      "id": "risk-portfolio",
      "labelZh": "风险与组合",
      "labelEn": "Risk and portfolio",
      "color": "red",
      "keywords": [
        "风险",
        "组合",
        "对冲",
        "波动率",
        "期权",
        "portfolio",
        "hedge",
        "volatility",
        "risk budget"
      ],
      "count": 1
    }
  ],
  "analystCounts": [
    {
      "label": "未识别",
      "count": 390
    },
    {
      "label": "AI Institute Reader Composer",
      "count": 1
    }
  ],
  "categoryCounts": [
    {
      "label": "其他",
      "count": 390
    },
    {
      "label": "读者报告",
      "count": 1
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "contemporaneous": true,
    "note": "This day view is assembled from public, date-stamped AI Institute research contracts."
  }
}