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"analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "既有研究记录— 为8月7日就业数据风险窗口构建跨资产对冲", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "archive" }, { "id": "archive-7667446e5915", "title": "既有研究记录研究报告 — 2026-07-28", "date": "2026-07-28", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7667446e5915/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "既有研究记录研究报告 — 2026-07-28", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "archive" } ], "discussions": [], "thesisEvents": [ { "id": "thesis-a60b131c8c", "title": "面对4.2%的总体CPI与108美元的布伦特原油，新任主席沃什将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上如何调整点阵图与政策立场？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 面对4.2%的总体CPI与108美元的布伦特原油，新任主席沃什将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上如何调整点阵图与政策立场？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a60b131c8c/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 5, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "七月油价冲击撞上七月FOMC：美联储的\"按兵不动\"能否扛住滞胀脉冲？", "summary": "研究记录 01 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师） 工作日期：2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场：initial（起始）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a466d820be8f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "相对价格变化还是二次冲击？原油回落后对7月FOMC滞胀叙事的重估", "summary": "分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 研究研究记录 研究院工作日： 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场： synthesize（综合）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ee684effb961/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "FOMC事件周——油价回落是否足以抵消关税与通胀风险？", "summary": "· 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a9133552725/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "6月CPI降温是一场地缘政治\"假动作\"：为何美联储7月29日的\"按兵不动\"暗藏一次仍然存活的9月加息", "summary": "6月CPI降温是一场地缘政治\"假动作\"：为何美联储7月29日的\"按兵不动\"暗藏一次仍然存活的9月加息", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-16d56c5fdda4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f0b8d44918", "title": "美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f0b8d44918/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 4, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "USD/CNY上破6.88时的A股北向敏感度与风格降仓顺序", "summary": "既有研究记录 · 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) · 工作日期 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡） 研究记录 · 立场：synthesize（综合）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a23f511d9ebd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 · 研究记录09：USD/CNY 逼近7.05时，能源与大宗商品能否承接AI硬件流出？", "summary": "2026-07-28 · 研究记录09：USD/CNY 逼近7.05时，能源与大宗商品能否承接AI硬件流出？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de80b5c6418a/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "定向股市托底下的USD/CNY闸门压力测试，2026-07-28", "summary": "截至机构工作日期 2026-07-28 （Asia/Singapore），我对研究记录03的人民币强势对冲假设做 压力测试 而非直接否定：只要SFISF、回购增持再贷款和国资ETF买入仍保持抵押、封闭、定向，它们可以与...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6e36484975f6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28：USD/CNY 6.88-7.05 路径下的最终杠铃权重 [S0]", "summary": "2026-07-28：USD/CNY 6.88-7.05 路径下的最终杠铃权重 [S0]", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-829326b8bd8d/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-24cd0b5ff9", "title": "在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-24cd0b5ff9/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 2, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "存储重定价 → AI capex、服务器 BOM 与 GPU/ASIC 订单韧性 — 工作日期 2026-07-28", "summary": "存储重定价 → AI capex、服务器 BOM 与 GPU/ASIC 订单韧性 — 工作日期 2026-07-28", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-51e455ab4ed7/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 研究记录05：算力—电力瓶颈：AI基建与电网的相对权重", "summary": "2026-07-28 研究记录05：算力—电力瓶颈：AI基建与电网的相对权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-28715839ef21/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "把 AI capex 跨资产判断转化为有规模、有风险预算的组合", "summary": "研究记录 · 工作日期： 2026-07-28（Asia/Singapore） 作者角色： 首席策略师（承接 research note 的跨资产配置交接）· 立场： synthesize（在 research note 基础上综合） 根主题： AI cape...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-838e891ff5ff/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI capex 周期：信用领先股票，还是纯技术性供给冲击？", "summary": "研究记录 · 作者：首席策略师 (chief-strategist) 工作日期：2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场：initial 根主题：AI capex 周期——信用与股票市场的背离，谁在领先？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f2874ec6264f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "GOOGL", "AMZN", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5c45703323", "title": "AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5c45703323/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 4, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "存储重定价 → AI capex、服务器 BOM 与 GPU/ASIC 订单韧性 — 工作日期 2026-07-28", "summary": "存储重定价 → AI capex、服务器 BOM 与 GPU/ASIC 订单韧性 — 工作日期 2026-07-28", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-51e455ab4ed7/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "从稀缺叙事到循环融资恐惧：是去杠杆，还是 AI capex 叙事真正变质？", "summary": "从稀缺叙事到循环融资恐惧：是去杠杆，还是 AI capex 叙事真正变质？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1f264bf9ceb3/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 A股策略：把AI capex权益降权转化为行业与风格权重", "summary": "2026-07-28 A股策略：把AI capex权益降权转化为行业与风格权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d1352e2436a/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "把 AI capex 跨资产判断转化为有规模、有风险预算的组合", "summary": "研究记录 · 工作日期： 2026-07-28（Asia/Singapore） 作者角色： 首席策略师（承接 research note 的跨资产配置交接）· 立场： synthesize（在 research note 基础上综合） 根主题： AI cape...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-838e891ff5ff/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "NVDA", "AMD", "MU", "AVGO", "TSM", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0e520ff02a", "title": "能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e520ff02a/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 5, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 利率压力测试：布伦特74.03美元意味着牛陡式回吐，而非全面久期行情", "summary": "2026-07-28 利率压力测试：布伦特74.03美元意味着牛陡式回吐，而非全面久期行情", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-003044d3841c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI...", "summary": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI 资本开支的美元融资成本", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8eafb448eca4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "滞胀式油价冲击 + 鹰派美联储：在相关性破裂前重建全天候组合", "summary": "首席策略师（ chief-strategist ）· 研究研究记录 · 工作日期：2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-12f3b1bceb93/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "FOMC事件周——油价回落是否足以抵消关税与通胀风险？", "summary": "· 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a9133552725/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CVX", "XOM", "SLB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8ca3d181f3", "title": "能源价格重心的下移提供了一次缓和全球“滞胀”压力的正向供给冲击，虽然成功消解了美欧央行的强行加息风险，但在低储蓄率、物流滞后与-273…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源价格重心的下移提供了一次缓和全球“滞胀”压力的正向供给冲击，虽然成功消解了美欧央行的强行加息风险，但在低储蓄率、物流滞后与-273…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8ca3d181f3/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 6, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "百元油价下的7月FOMC：夹在供给冲击与走软就业之间的Warsh联储", "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师） · 研究记录 工作日期： 2026-07-28（Asia/Singapore） 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-361dacda486c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "相对价格变化还是二次冲击？原油回落后对7月FOMC滞胀叙事的重估", "summary": "分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 研究研究记录 研究院工作日： 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场： synthesize（综合）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ee684effb961/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "6月CPI降温是一场地缘政治\"假动作\"：为何美联储7月29日的\"按兵不动\"暗藏一次仍然存活的9月加息", "summary": "6月CPI降温是一场地缘政治\"假动作\"：为何美联储7月29日的\"按兵不动\"暗藏一次仍然存活的9月加息", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-16d56c5fdda4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "七月油价冲击撞上七月FOMC：美联储的\"按兵不动\"能否扛住滞胀脉冲？", "summary": "研究记录 01 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师） 工作日期：2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场：initial（起始）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a466d820be8f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4be65dd130", "title": "基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4be65dd130/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 2, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "七月油价冲击撞上七月FOMC：美联储的\"按兵不动\"能否扛住滞胀脉冲？", "summary": "研究记录 01 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师） 工作日期：2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场：initial（起始）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a466d820be8f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "6月CPI降温是一场地缘政治\"假动作\"：为何美联储7月29日的\"按兵不动\"暗藏一次仍然存活的9月加息", "summary": "6月CPI降温是一场地缘政治\"假动作\"：为何美联储7月29日的\"按兵不动\"暗藏一次仍然存活的9月加息", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-16d56c5fdda4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "7月29日议息前夜的 Warsh 美联储：市场是否低估了\"鹰派按兵不动\"？", "summary": "7月29日议息前夜的 Warsh 美联储：市场是否低估了\"鹰派按兵不动\"？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-72bb3ca9c1fa/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "鹰派按兵不动：核心通胀降温与能源冲击撕扯下的美联储", "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 研究记录 研究院工作日期： 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡） 任务框架： central bank watch —— 2026年7月28–29日FOMC前瞻与跨资产解读", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2369dda34a95/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-fe66302bd9", "title": "美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fe66302bd9/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 2, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 是否是 PBOC 利率脱钩的真正上限？", "summary": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 是否是 PBOC 利率脱钩的真正上限？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd7e41c7dae4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 触发网格：中间价偏离、CNH-CNY basis、CNH HIBOR 与企业套保流量", "summary": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 触发网格：中间价偏离、CNH-CNY basis、CNH HIBOR 与企业套保流量", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fcdd7cae94fc/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "把 USD/CNH 触发网格转化为跨资产对冲叠加层", "summary": "首席策略师（ chief-strategist ）· 研究研究记录 · 工作日期：2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1d1f94f9e8cf/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "USD/CNY 6.80–6.84 压力带的政策容忍度与 CNH 流动性验证", "summary": "USD/CNY 6.80–6.84 压力带的政策容忍度与 CNH 流动性验证", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c922a33f8747/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2ee6c1cf01", "title": "39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2ee6c1cf01/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 2, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 是否是 PBOC 利率脱钩的真正上限？", "summary": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 是否是 PBOC 利率脱钩的真正上限？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd7e41c7dae4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "把 USD/CNH 触发网格转化为跨资产对冲叠加层", "summary": "首席策略师（ chief-strategist ）· 研究研究记录 · 工作日期：2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1d1f94f9e8cf/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 触发网格：中间价偏离、CNH-CNY basis、CNH HIBOR 与企业套保流量", "summary": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 触发网格：中间价偏离、CNH-CNY basis、CNH HIBOR 与企业套保流量", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fcdd7cae94fc/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "USDCNY 基准重跑与 USD/CNH 对冲，工作日期 2026-07-28", "summary": "USDCNY 基准重跑与 USD/CNH 对冲，工作日期 2026-07-28 fx-strategist · 支持 · Board a30623ac · 既有研究记录", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fe48f0235358/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-db003202fc", "title": "国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db003202fc/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 触发网格：中间价偏离、CNH-CNY basis、CNH HIBOR 与企业套保流量", "summary": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 触发网格：中间价偏离、CNH-CNY basis、CNH HIBOR 与企业套保流量", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fcdd7cae94fc/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 是否是 PBOC 利率脱钩的真正上限？", "summary": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 是否是 PBOC 利率脱钩的真正上限？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd7e41c7dae4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 中国宏观 / 外汇研究记录：PBOC 反应函数能否放行 USD/CNH 突破 6.88，若突破则 A 股红...", "summary": "2026-07-28 中国宏观 / 外汇研究记录：PBOC 反应函数能否放行 USD/CNH 突破 6.88，若突破则 A 股红利如何重排？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a57c3a42bb7c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "CSVS 与 USD/CNH 的容量感知组合层叠加", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 首席策略师 · 立场： synthesize（综合） 工作日期： 2026-07-28，Asia/Singapore · 根主题： Section 301 新关税——是通胀慢变量还是供应链重定价？ 本报告片： 把 CS...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-08cbca3d6537/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2aa156c4c9", "title": "2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2aa156c4c9/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 · 研究记录09：USD/CNY 逼近7.05时，能源与大宗商品能否承接AI硬件流出？", "summary": "2026-07-28 · 研究记录09：USD/CNY 逼近7.05时，能源与大宗商品能否承接AI硬件流出？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de80b5c6418a/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "summary": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-68004508ce6c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估...", "summary": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90ff8a3044e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "去杠杆压力下的美元、人民币与 carry，2026-07-28", "summary": "截至院内工作日 2026-07-28，本报告对 既有研究记录 做综合而非重复： th p 1aca84b6 的利率腿已经发热，因为 2026-07-24 美国 2年期国债收益率为 4.33%，高于 4.25% 触发线；但信用腿...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ab2b5ac8824e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-77134b90a1", "title": "2026年7月拐点：7月24日Section 122关税悬崖与2026年伊朗战争能源冲击消退相撞，如何把美联储钉在“更高更久”", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年7月拐点：7月24日Section 122关税悬崖与2026年伊朗战争能源冲击消退相撞，如何把美联储钉在“更高更久”", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-77134b90a1/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 6, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "Warsh领导下的美联储：黏性通胀 当下 撑宽利差——但它正在制造迟早令利差骤然收窄的增长裂缝", "summary": "Warsh领导下的美联储：黏性通胀 当下 撑宽利差——但它正在制造迟早令利差骤然收窄的增长裂缝", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ec1c3a8365ad/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "美联储2026年7月议息会议：Warsh 治下的\"加息之辩\"与倒转的通胀风险", "summary": "美联储2026年7月议息会议：Warsh 治下的\"加息之辩\"与倒转的通胀风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ed5e65ab59a6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "为「Warsh看跌期权」定日期：滞胀反应函数把行权价抬得 更高 ——把被迫转向推迟到2027Q1，也让日...", "summary": "为「Warsh看跌期权」定日期：滞胀反应函数把行权价抬得 更高 ——把被迫转向推迟到2027Q1，也让日元急涨更猛", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0da1f987f2f3/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 - 布伦特74美元基准与85美元风险区间：对9月通胀和美联储的含义", "summary": "2026-07-28 - 布伦特74美元基准与85美元风险区间：对9月通胀和美联储的含义", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ea6922f06d36/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a7f43e67af", "title": "在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a7f43e67af/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "百元油价下的7月FOMC：夹在供给冲击与走软就业之间的Warsh联储", "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师） · 研究记录 工作日期： 2026-07-28（Asia/Singapore） 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-361dacda486c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "FOMC事件周——油价回落是否足以抵消关税与通胀风险？", "summary": "· 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a9133552725/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "七月油价冲击撞上七月FOMC：美联储的\"按兵不动\"能否扛住滞胀脉冲？", "summary": "研究记录 01 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师） 工作日期：2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场：initial（起始）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a466d820be8f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "6月CPI降温是一场地缘政治\"假动作\"：为何美联储7月29日的\"按兵不动\"暗藏一次仍然存活的9月加息", "summary": "6月CPI降温是一场地缘政治\"假动作\"：为何美联储7月29日的\"按兵不动\"暗藏一次仍然存活的9月加息", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-16d56c5fdda4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-94e0c46a69", "title": "USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-94e0c46a69/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 2, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 是否是 PBOC 利率脱钩的真正上限？", "summary": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 是否是 PBOC 利率脱钩的真正上限？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd7e41c7dae4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 USD/CNH 对冲破位监测：期权、远期与中间价偏离", "summary": "2026-07-28 USD/CNH 对冲破位监测：期权、远期与中间价偏离", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f4ae8a690f6e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 触发网格：中间价偏离、CNH-CNY basis、CNH HIBOR 与企业套保流量", "summary": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 触发网格：中间价偏离、CNH-CNY basis、CNH HIBOR 与企业套保流量", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fcdd7cae94fc/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "把 USD/CNH 触发网格转化为跨资产对冲叠加层", "summary": "首席策略师（ chief-strategist ）· 研究研究记录 · 工作日期：2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1d1f94f9e8cf/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-56d9baf47d", "title": "2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-56d9baf47d/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 6, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "鹰派美联储叠加加息中的日本央行：美元/日元套息交易的反转风险", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 立场： 压力测试（针对研究记录 01 的\"鹰派式维持／可能加息\"美联储判断） - 工作日： 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 落款日期： 2026...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-62dbb8f03800/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 - 布伦特74美元基准与85美元风险区间：对9月通胀和美联储的含义", "summary": "2026-07-28 - 布伦特74美元基准与85美元风险区间：对9月通胀和美联储的含义", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ea6922f06d36/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "6月CPI降温是一场地缘政治\"假动作\"：为何美联储7月29日的\"按兵不动\"暗藏一次仍然存活的9月加息", "summary": "6月CPI降温是一场地缘政治\"假动作\"：为何美联储7月29日的\"按兵不动\"暗藏一次仍然存活的9月加息", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-16d56c5fdda4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "宏观翻译：$74 / $90 / 00+ 布伦特情景对7月–8月CPI、核心PCE与7月29日声明的影响", "summary": "宏观翻译：$74 / $90 / 00+ 布伦特情景对7月–8月CPI、核心PCE与7月29日声明的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ad4f2399d591/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9cd2a72630", "title": "在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9cd2a72630/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "美联储2026年7月议息会议：Warsh 治下的\"加息之辩\"与倒转的通胀风险", "summary": "美联储2026年7月议息会议：Warsh 治下的\"加息之辩\"与倒转的通胀风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ed5e65ab59a6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "6月CPI降温是一场地缘政治\"假动作\"：为何美联储7月29日的\"按兵不动\"暗藏一次仍然存活的9月加息", "summary": "6月CPI降温是一场地缘政治\"假动作\"：为何美联储7月29日的\"按兵不动\"暗藏一次仍然存活的9月加息", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-16d56c5fdda4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "七月油价冲击撞上七月FOMC：美联储的\"按兵不动\"能否扛住滞胀脉冲？", "summary": "研究记录 01 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师） 工作日期：2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场：initial（起始）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a466d820be8f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "Warsh领导下的美联储：黏性通胀 当下 撑宽利差——但它正在制造迟早令利差骤然收窄的增长裂缝", "summary": "Warsh领导下的美联储：黏性通胀 当下 撑宽利差——但它正在制造迟早令利差骤然收窄的增长裂缝", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ec1c3a8365ad/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "JPM", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-662985737d", "title": "在12% HIBOR极端挤空及离岸流动性收紧传导下，将USD/CNH期权套保释放的5374万人民币全额转配至离岸存款以锁定12%高息Ca…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在12% HIBOR极端挤空及离岸流动性收紧传导下，将USD/CNH期权套保释放的5374万人民币全额转配至离岸存款以锁定12%高息Ca…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-662985737d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 3, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 USD/CNH 对冲破位监测：期权、远期与中间价偏离", "summary": "2026-07-28 USD/CNH 对冲破位监测：期权、远期与中间价偏离", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f4ae8a690f6e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 触发网格：中间价偏离、CNH-CNY basis、CNH HIBOR 与企业套保流量", "summary": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 触发网格：中间价偏离、CNH-CNY basis、CNH HIBOR 与企业套保流量", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fcdd7cae94fc/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "CSVS 与 USD/CNH 的容量感知组合层叠加", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 首席策略师 · 立场： synthesize（综合） 工作日期： 2026-07-28，Asia/Singapore · 根主题： Section 301 新关税——是通胀慢变量还是供应链重定价？ 本报告片： 把 CS...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-08cbca3d6537/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "把 USD/CNH 触发网格转化为跨资产对冲叠加层", "summary": "首席策略师（ chief-strategist ）· 研究研究记录 · 工作日期：2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1d1f94f9e8cf/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a72c14c0e", "title": "离岸收紧目前更可能触发局部高拥挤板块去杠杆，而非A股全市场两融踩踏；红利低波守底仓，资源股只做流动性凸性腿。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 离岸收紧目前更可能触发局部高拥挤板块去杠杆，而非A股全市场两融踩踏；红利低波守底仓，资源股只做流动性凸性腿。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a72c14c0e/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 3, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "CSVS 与 USD/CNH 的容量感知组合层叠加", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 首席策略师 · 立场： synthesize（综合） 工作日期： 2026-07-28，Asia/Singapore · 根主题： Section 301 新关税——是通胀慢变量还是供应链重定价？ 本报告片： 把 CS...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-08cbca3d6537/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 鹰派Fed再定价下的USD/CNH凸性对冲规模", "summary": "研究所工作日期： 2026-07-28 （Asia/Singapore）。本报告（4/8）把前三卡的宏观主线（既有研究记录）落到FX执行层面： 在9月加息概率维持80%-85%、油价重新上行、A股外资流出压力扩大...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fc6f227bdf20/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "把 USD/CNH 触发网格转化为跨资产对冲叠加层", "summary": "首席策略师（ chief-strategist ）· 研究研究记录 · 工作日期：2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1d1f94f9e8cf/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 中国宏观 / 外汇研究记录：PBOC 反应函数能否放行 USD/CNH 突破 6.88，若突破则 A 股红...", "summary": "2026-07-28 中国宏观 / 外汇研究记录：PBOC 反应函数能否放行 USD/CNH 突破 6.88，若突破则 A 股红利如何重排？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a57c3a42bb7c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "9988.HK", "0700.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-da665e3ee7", "title": "在2026-06-26，中国约1.73%的国债收益率托底机制在Warsh强美元政策与三季度2-5万亿地方债/国债供给冲击下不可持续，国债…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-26，中国约1.73%的国债收益率托底机制在Warsh强美元政策与三季度2-5万亿地方债/国债供给冲击下不可持续，国债…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-da665e3ee7/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 2, "risks": 5, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "把 USD/CNH 触发网格转化为跨资产对冲叠加层", "summary": "首席策略师（ chief-strategist ）· 研究研究记录 · 工作日期：2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1d1f94f9e8cf/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 是否是 PBOC 利率脱钩的真正上限？", "summary": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 是否是 PBOC 利率脱钩的真正上限？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd7e41c7dae4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 波动率扩张对远期点差及执行成本的破坏性测试", "summary": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 波动率扩张对远期点差及执行成本的破坏性测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c8947bf5b24/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-29 — 纳入USD/CNH对冲成本后的最终跨资产仓位设定", "summary": "2026-07-29 — 纳入USD/CNH对冲成本后的最终跨资产仓位设定", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cb18c1994ba4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d8170c3a35", "title": "近海资本开支与设备利用率驱动油服盈利弹性", "titleEn": "Offshore capex and equipment utilization drive oilfield-service earnings leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d8170c3a35/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 0, "risks": 7, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "滞胀式油价冲击 + 鹰派美联储：在相关性破裂前重建全天候组合", "summary": "首席策略师（ chief-strategist ）· 研究研究记录 · 工作日期：2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-12f3b1bceb93/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "百元油价下的7月FOMC：夹在供给冲击与走软就业之间的Warsh联储", "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师） · 研究记录 工作日期： 2026-07-28（Asia/Singapore） 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-361dacda486c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "FOMC事件周——油价回落是否足以抵消关税与通胀风险？", "summary": "· 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a9133552725/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 研究记录02：为“更高更久 + 油价供给冲击”构建跨资产再平衡", "summary": "2026-07-28 研究记录02：为“更高更久 + 油价供给冲击”构建跨资产再平衡", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7bd1a4ba0254/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CVX", "XOM", "0883.HK", "COP", "2883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0", "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层", "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 4, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "首席策略师：AI 资本开支压力是否已从股权估值扩散到信用定价？", "summary": "研究记录 · 工作日： 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡） 作者： chief-strategist（首席策略师） · 立场： initial（起始） 任务： 在 MSFT/META（2026-07-29）与 AMZN/AAPL（2026-07-30）财报前，为...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-20d6ab7e11f9/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "存储重定价 → AI capex、服务器 BOM 与 GPU/ASIC 订单韧性 — 工作日期 2026-07-28", "summary": "存储重定价 → AI capex、服务器 BOM 与 GPU/ASIC 订单韧性 — 工作日期 2026-07-28", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-51e455ab4ed7/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "压测循环融资闭环：需求有多少是自我制造？HBM 订单会以怎样的时滞与幅度被下修？", "summary": "压测循环融资闭环：需求有多少是自我制造？HBM 订单会以怎样的时滞与幅度被下修？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4855a3bb3959/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "AI 融资链条的信用传导：条件要坏到什么程度才会逼超大规模厂商砍 capex、触发 −20/−35% HBM 情...", "summary": "AI 融资链条的信用传导：条件要坏到什么程度才会逼超大规模厂商砍 capex、触发 −20/−35% HBM 情景？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-58c1df951bec/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "TSM", "AVGO", "AAPL", "TSLA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-83a30b141f", "title": "美伊直接交火导致原油暴涨5-6%，布伦特突破79美元逼近80。这是否会引燃二次通胀，推翻债市对美联储‘因分裂而暂停加息’的假设，并在9月…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美伊直接交火导致原油暴涨5-6%，布伦特突破79美元逼近80。这是否会引燃二次通胀，推翻债市对美联储‘因分裂而暂停加息’的假设，并在9月…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-83a30b141f/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 1, "risks": 5, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 - 布伦特74美元基准与85美元风险区间：对9月通胀和美联储的含义", "summary": "2026-07-28 - 布伦特74美元基准与85美元风险区间：对9月通胀和美联储的含义", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ea6922f06d36/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "鹰派按兵不动：核心通胀降温与能源冲击撕扯下的美联储", "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 研究记录 研究院工作日期： 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡） 任务框架： central bank watch —— 2026年7月28–29日FOMC前瞻与跨资产解读", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2369dda34a95/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "鹰派美联储叠加加息中的日本央行：美元/日元套息交易的反转风险", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 立场： 压力测试（针对研究记录 01 的\"鹰派式维持／可能加息\"美联储判断） - 工作日： 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 落款日期： 2026...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-62dbb8f03800/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI...", "summary": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI 资本开支的美元融资成本", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8eafb448eca4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bc1d8e9af8", "title": "Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bc1d8e9af8/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "美联储2026年7月议息会议：Warsh 治下的\"加息之辩\"与倒转的通胀风险", "summary": "美联储2026年7月议息会议：Warsh 治下的\"加息之辩\"与倒转的通胀风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ed5e65ab59a6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "Warsh领导下的美联储：黏性通胀 当下 撑宽利差——但它正在制造迟早令利差骤然收窄的增长裂缝", "summary": "Warsh领导下的美联储：黏性通胀 当下 撑宽利差——但它正在制造迟早令利差骤然收窄的增长裂缝", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ec1c3a8365ad/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 - 布伦特74美元基准与85美元风险区间：对9月通胀和美联储的含义", "summary": "2026-07-28 - 布伦特74美元基准与85美元风险区间：对9月通胀和美联储的含义", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ea6922f06d36/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "FOMC事件周——油价回落是否足以抵消关税与通胀风险？", "summary": "· 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a9133552725/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9d3836cc07", "title": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "titleEn": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d3836cc07/", "laneId": "lane_008e3bd9306a", "lane": "AI 软件效率/生产率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-software-productivity/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 58, "supports": 4, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "存储重定价 → AI capex、服务器 BOM 与 GPU/ASIC 订单韧性 — 工作日期 2026-07-28", "summary": "存储重定价 → AI capex、服务器 BOM 与 GPU/ASIC 订单韧性 — 工作日期 2026-07-28", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-51e455ab4ed7/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "压测循环融资闭环：需求有多少是自我制造？HBM 订单会以怎样的时滞与幅度被下修？", "summary": "压测循环融资闭环：需求有多少是自我制造？HBM 订单会以怎样的时滞与幅度被下修？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4855a3bb3959/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "AI 融资链条的信用传导：条件要坏到什么程度才会逼超大规模厂商砍 capex、触发 −20/−35% HBM 情...", "summary": "AI 融资链条的信用传导：条件要坏到什么程度才会逼超大规模厂商砍 capex、触发 −20/−35% HBM 情景？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-58c1df951bec/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "压力测试核心假设：hyperscaler capex 节奏与 GOOGL 收入锚的真实性", "summary": "压力测试核心假设：hyperscaler capex 节奏与 GOOGL 收入锚的真实性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bb1a01c250fd/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "NVDA", "NOW", "CRM", "ADBE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-740e729f22", "title": "人民币、美元与套息交易决定跨境风险资产的流动性折价", "titleEn": "RMB, USD, and carry trades define the liquidity discount across cross-border risk assets", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-740e729f22/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 47, "supports": 0, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录 05 2026-07-28 强美元、负向中美利差与人民币政策挤压", "summary": "研究记录 05 2026-07-28 强美元、负向中美利差与人民币政策挤压", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-04a9772a1add/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "鹰派美联储叠加加息中的日本央行：美元/日元套息交易的反转风险", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 立场： 压力测试（针对研究记录 01 的\"鹰派式维持／可能加息\"美联储判断） - 工作日： 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 落款日期： 2026...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-62dbb8f03800/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "去杠杆压力下的美元、人民币与 carry，2026-07-28", "summary": "截至院内工作日 2026-07-28，本报告对 既有研究记录 做综合而非重复： th p 1aca84b6 的利率腿已经发热，因为 2026-07-24 美国 2年期国债收益率为 4.33%，高于 4.25% 触发线；但信用腿...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ab2b5ac8824e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "全球宏观 9月FOMC五五开局面下的美元套息交易脆弱性", "summary": "既有研究记录— 全球宏观 9月FOMC五五开局面下的美元套息交易脆弱性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3c0a707a6e3c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "3988.HK", "0700.HK", "UUP", "2800.HK", "9988.HK", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a803fa3312", "title": "美联储路径仍是全球资产再定价的总阀门", "titleEn": "The Fed path remains the master valve for global asset repricing", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a803fa3312/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 46, "supports": 1, "risks": 5, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "跨资产配置图谱：$74 / $90 / 00+ 布伦特 → 美债、美元、大宗与亚洲/A股风险溢价", "summary": "跨资产配置图谱：$74 / $90 / 00+ 布伦特 → 美债、美元、大宗与亚洲/A股风险溢价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-389beb13180d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 - 布伦特74美元基准与85美元风险区间：对9月通胀和美联储的含义", "summary": "2026-07-28 - 布伦特74美元基准与85美元风险区间：对9月通胀和美联储的含义", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ea6922f06d36/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "鹰派按兵不动：核心通胀降温与能源冲击撕扯下的美联储", "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 研究记录 研究院工作日期： 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡） 任务框架： central bank watch —— 2026年7月28–29日FOMC前瞻与跨资产解读", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2369dda34a95/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "宏观翻译：$74 / $90 / 00+ 布伦特情景对7月–8月CPI、核心PCE与7月29日声明的影响", "summary": "宏观翻译：$74 / $90 / 00+ 布伦特情景对7月–8月CPI、核心PCE与7月29日声明的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ad4f2399d591/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "TLT", "JPM", "KRE", "GLD", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bb46b0c3de", "title": "USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bb46b0c3de/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "summary": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-68004508ce6c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估...", "summary": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90ff8a3044e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 USD/CNH 对冲破位监测：期权、远期与中间价偏离", "summary": "2026-07-28 USD/CNH 对冲破位监测：期权、远期与中间价偏离", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f4ae8a690f6e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4f541b33ff", "title": "美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f541b33ff/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI...", "summary": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI 资本开支的美元融资成本", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8eafb448eca4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "summary": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-68004508ce6c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估...", "summary": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90ff8a3044e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4b64fc19f4", "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b64fc19f4/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "summary": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-68004508ce6c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI...", "summary": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI 资本开支的美元融资成本", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8eafb448eca4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估...", "summary": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90ff8a3044e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e4e956cd41", "title": "通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e4e956cd41/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "summary": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-68004508ce6c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI...", "summary": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI 资本开支的美元融资成本", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8eafb448eca4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估...", "summary": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90ff8a3044e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-07b4ef2695", "title": "地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-07b4ef2695/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "滞胀式油价冲击 + 鹰派美联储：在相关性破裂前重建全天候组合", "summary": "首席策略师（ chief-strategist ）· 研究研究记录 · 工作日期：2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-12f3b1bceb93/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "百元油价下的7月FOMC：夹在供给冲击与走软就业之间的Warsh联储", "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师） · 研究记录 工作日期： 2026-07-28（Asia/Singapore） 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-361dacda486c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "七月油价冲击撞上七月FOMC：美联储的\"按兵不动\"能否扛住滞胀脉冲？", "summary": "研究记录 01 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师） 工作日期：2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场：initial（起始）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a466d820be8f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CVX", "XOM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-307b7fe2cb", "title": "美联储7月两难：Warsh鹰派点阵图 vs 开裂的劳动力市场与消退的伊朗油价冲击", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储7月两难：Warsh鹰派点阵图 vs 开裂的劳动力市场与消退的伊朗油价冲击", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-307b7fe2cb/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "6月CPI降温是一场地缘政治\"假动作\"：为何美联储7月29日的\"按兵不动\"暗藏一次仍然存活的9月加息", "summary": "6月CPI降温是一场地缘政治\"假动作\"：为何美联储7月29日的\"按兵不动\"暗藏一次仍然存活的9月加息", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-16d56c5fdda4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "百元油价下的7月FOMC：夹在供给冲击与走软就业之间的Warsh联储", "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师） · 研究记录 工作日期： 2026-07-28（Asia/Singapore） 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-361dacda486c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "FOMC事件周——油价回落是否足以抵消关税与通胀风险？", "summary": "· 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a9133552725/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a3440bf2a4", "title": "中东停火信号下的油价风险应如何重定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中东停火信号下的油价风险应如何重定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a3440bf2a4/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "6月CPI降温是一场地缘政治\"假动作\"：为何美联储7月29日的\"按兵不动\"暗藏一次仍然存活的9月加息", "summary": "6月CPI降温是一场地缘政治\"假动作\"：为何美联储7月29日的\"按兵不动\"暗藏一次仍然存活的9月加息", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-16d56c5fdda4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "七月油价冲击撞上七月FOMC：美联储的\"按兵不动\"能否扛住滞胀脉冲？", "summary": "研究记录 01 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师） 工作日期：2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场：initial（起始）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a466d820be8f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "滞胀式油价冲击 + 鹰派美联储：在相关性破裂前重建全天候组合", "summary": "首席策略师（ chief-strategist ）· 研究研究记录 · 工作日期：2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-12f3b1bceb93/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-dfa08317f5", "title": "博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-dfa08317f5/", "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956", "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "半导体与AI硬件两融持仓集中度：市值×杠杆是否足以触发系统性平仓连锁？", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 半导体分析师 · 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 工作日期： 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡） · 根主题： 霍尔木兹石油冲击撞上 Warsh 鹰派美联储——7 月 28–29 日 FOMC 前...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-150f1888c568/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 — 已落地A股AI硬件账本的质押/两融强平级联压力测试", "summary": "2026-07-28 — 已落地A股AI硬件账本的质押/两融强平级联压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2efebaec656e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "拥挤交易去杠杆后的A股AI硬件再入场评分表（工作日期 2026-07-28）", "summary": "拥挤交易去杠杆后的A股AI硬件再入场评分表（工作日期 2026-07-28）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-97f46e25f949/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "300394.SZ", "300502.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d74ae315e8", "title": "当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d74ae315e8/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "summary": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-68004508ce6c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI...", "summary": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI 资本开支的美元融资成本", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8eafb448eca4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估...", "summary": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90ff8a3044e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0011ad682c", "title": "美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0011ad682c/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI...", "summary": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI 资本开支的美元融资成本", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8eafb448eca4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "summary": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-68004508ce6c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估...", "summary": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90ff8a3044e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "JPM", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-69025fa4b4", "title": "驱动对冲阶梯的 Fed / BoJ / ECB 政策路径", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 驱动对冲阶梯的 Fed / BoJ / ECB 政策路径", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-69025fa4b4/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "summary": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-68004508ce6c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI...", "summary": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI 资本开支的美元融资成本", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8eafb448eca4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估...", "summary": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90ff8a3044e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-29b1c0d6c7", "title": "日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-29b1c0d6c7/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI...", "summary": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI 资本开支的美元融资成本", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8eafb448eca4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "summary": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-68004508ce6c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估...", "summary": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90ff8a3044e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5be4c31f4e", "title": "6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5be4c31f4e/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "鹰派美联储叠加加息中的日本央行：美元/日元套息交易的反转风险", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 立场： 压力测试（针对研究记录 01 的\"鹰派式维持／可能加息\"美联储判断） - 工作日： 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 落款日期： 2026...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-62dbb8f03800/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "跨资产配置图谱：$74 / $90 / 00+ 布伦特 → 美债、美元、大宗与亚洲/A股风险溢价", "summary": "跨资产配置图谱：$74 / $90 / 00+ 布伦特 → 美债、美元、大宗与亚洲/A股风险溢价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-389beb13180d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 - 布伦特74美元基准与85美元风险区间：对9月通胀和美联储的含义", "summary": "2026-07-28 - 布伦特74美元基准与85美元风险区间：对9月通胀和美联储的含义", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ea6922f06d36/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-594ba5e705", "title": "在中美利差走阔且输入型AI信用冲击升级的情形下，USD/CNY能否守住6.85缓冲翻转线", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在中美利差走阔且输入型AI信用冲击升级的情形下，USD/CNY能否守住6.85缓冲翻转线", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-594ba5e705/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 2, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "USD/CNY上破6.88时的A股北向敏感度与风格降仓顺序", "summary": "既有研究记录 · 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) · 工作日期 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡） 研究记录 · 立场：synthesize（综合）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a23f511d9ebd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "CSVS 与 USD/CNH 的容量感知组合层叠加", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 首席策略师 · 立场： synthesize（综合） 工作日期： 2026-07-28，Asia/Singapore · 根主题： Section 301 新关税——是通胀慢变量还是供应链重定价？ 本报告片： 把 CS...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-08cbca3d6537/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "USD/CNY破6.88时的政策反应函数 — 工作日期2026-07-28", "summary": "USD/CNY破6.88时的政策反应函数 — 工作日期2026-07-28", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ba33f7ab5900/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-27c1e713e6", "title": "日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-27c1e713e6/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "summary": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-68004508ce6c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI...", "summary": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI 资本开支的美元融资成本", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8eafb448eca4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估...", "summary": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90ff8a3044e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3bf2a3ec55", "title": "请先统一事实读数与压力情景：CNH HIBOR 12.00%和USD/JPY 162.18应否进入今日基准？若仅为情景，A股β≈0.28…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请先统一事实读数与压力情景：CNH HIBOR 12.00%和USD/JPY 162.18应否进入今日基准？若仅为情景，A股β≈0.28…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3bf2a3ec55/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "summary": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-68004508ce6c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI...", "summary": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI 资本开支的美元融资成本", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8eafb448eca4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估...", "summary": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90ff8a3044e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b976d8330e", "title": "NAND盈利弹性由价格与产品结构主导，而非单纯出货增长", "titleEn": "NAND earnings leverage is driven by pricing and mix rather than shipment growth alone", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b976d8330e/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 2, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "压测循环融资闭环：需求有多少是自我制造？HBM 订单会以怎样的时滞与幅度被下修？", "summary": "压测循环融资闭环：需求有多少是自我制造？HBM 订单会以怎样的时滞与幅度被下修？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4855a3bb3959/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "AI存储交易：从稀缺溢价转为供给恐惧？——工作日 2026-07-28", "summary": "工作日：2026-07-28 [自测算：本地 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-28]。我的立场是 综合：CXMT 上市、 SKHY ADR 溢价以及 DRAM/RAM 散户仓位，已经足以提高 MU / SKHY / SNDK 的风险溢价，但还不...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-843a9bf296ac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "从稀缺叙事到循环融资恐惧：是去杠杆，还是 AI capex 叙事真正变质？", "summary": "从稀缺叙事到循环融资恐惧：是去杠杆，还是 AI capex 叙事真正变质？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1f264bf9ceb3/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "META", "MU", "000660.KS", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b13b8604a5", "title": "美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13b8604a5/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-28 — 离岸美元挤压下的A股提款机", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： global-macro · 立场： 综合（synthesize） 工作日期： 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡） · 根主题： 日元套息交易与日央行正常化", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d7ae2d944521/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 人民币对冲的组合落地：A股、港股/黄金凸性与美元现金减震垫", "summary": "2026-07-28 人民币对冲的组合落地：A股、港股/黄金凸性与美元现金减震垫", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e0e68cfb44a3/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "鹰派美联储叠加加息中的日本央行：美元/日元套息交易的反转风险", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 立场： 压力测试（针对研究记录 01 的\"鹰派式维持／可能加息\"美联储判断） - 工作日： 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 落款日期： 2026...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-62dbb8f03800/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "KWEB", "FXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-612f83a611", "title": "地缘原油冲击导致的通胀传导（推升核心PCE至4.16%）将促使无前瞻指引的沃什美联储通过在9月和年底连续加息两次（至4.00%–4.25…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘原油冲击导致的通胀传导（推升核心PCE至4.16%）将促使无前瞻指引的沃什美联储通过在9月和年底连续加息两次（至4.00%–4.25…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-612f83a611/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 - 布伦特74美元基准与85美元风险区间：对9月通胀和美联储的含义", "summary": "2026-07-28 - 布伦特74美元基准与85美元风险区间：对9月通胀和美联储的含义", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ea6922f06d36/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "FOMC事件周——油价回落是否足以抵消关税与通胀风险？", "summary": "· 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a9133552725/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "相对价格变化还是二次冲击？原油回落后对7月FOMC滞胀叙事的重估", "summary": "分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 研究研究记录 研究院工作日： 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场： synthesize（综合）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ee684effb961/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-42ca700527", "title": "霍尔木兹海峡60天和平协定签署且制裁豁免延长，导致运力大增、布伦特油价跌5.23%至$73.05/桶，LME铝价从高位跌19.1%至$3…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 霍尔木兹海峡60天和平协定签署且制裁豁免延长，导致运力大增、布伦特油价跌5.23%至$73.05/桶，LME铝价从高位跌19.1%至$3…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-42ca700527/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "滞胀式油价冲击 + 鹰派美联储：在相关性破裂前重建全天候组合", "summary": "首席策略师（ chief-strategist ）· 研究研究记录 · 工作日期：2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-12f3b1bceb93/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "滞胀油价尾部下的大类资产组合构建：60/40与风险平价能否扛住供给冲击？", "summary": "滞胀油价尾部下的大类资产组合构建：60/40与风险平价能否扛住供给冲击？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c1fdbfa39ade/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 · 研究记录09：USD/CNY 逼近7.05时，能源与大宗商品能否承接AI硬件流出？", "summary": "2026-07-28 · 研究记录09：USD/CNY 逼近7.05时，能源与大宗商品能否承接AI硬件流出？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de80b5c6418a/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "0857.HK", "SLB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e9630d3ee1", "title": "日元套息平仓是 EM 科技、离岸中资与高 beta 主题的尾部流动性风险", "titleEn": "Yen carry unwind is a tail liquidity risk for EM tech, offshore China, and high-beta themes", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e9630d3ee1/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 52, "supports": 2, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "鹰派美联储叠加加息中的日本央行：美元/日元套息交易的反转风险", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 立场： 压力测试（针对研究记录 01 的\"鹰派式维持／可能加息\"美联储判断） - 工作日： 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 落款日期： 2026...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-62dbb8f03800/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "日元创40年新低而日央行还在加息：真正的信号是利差，不是套息交易", "summary": "研究研究记录 · 分析师：外汇策略师（ fx-strategist ） 工作日期：2026-07-28（Asia/Singapore）· 立场：initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6c75c2aa8973/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "为日元套息骤断定位多资产组合，又不错过基准情形", "summary": "分析师： chief-strategist（首席策略师）· 立场： synthesize（综合） 工作日期： 2026-07-28（Asia/Singapore）· 研究记录", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3ef64bbf5ac3/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "CME", "CBOE", "LOW", "UUP", "EEM", "FXY", "EWJ", "MCHI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-59f298ff36", "title": "在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-59f298ff36/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 84, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — A股提款机后的执行清单：互联互通、高两融担保科技股与高股息防御的 30% / 40% / 30%...", "summary": "前序研究 — A股提款机后的执行清单：互联互通、高两融担保科技股与高股息防御的 30% / 40% / 30% 凸性现金梯队", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-629f2f00eb3b/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 压力测试：科创50雪球负Gamma、Tier-1两融尾部与2.86万亿/2.80万亿去杠杆线", "summary": "2026-07-28 压力测试：科创50雪球负Gamma、Tier-1两融尾部与2.86万亿/2.80万亿去杠杆线", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-21a8126710e1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f5f184ba4e", "title": "在美联储偏鹰暂停、美债收益率攀升至4.66%的背景下，国内电子行业两融余额高悬至5722.82亿元是否面临负Gamma清算压力？如何重构…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在美联储偏鹰暂停、美债收益率攀升至4.66%的背景下，国内电子行业两融余额高悬至5722.82亿元是否面临负Gamma清算压力？如何重构…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5f184ba4e/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "A股高股息资源/能源：CNY原生防护垫与两融踩踏", "summary": "研究记录 · 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） 分析师： 首席策略师 · 工作日期： 2026-07-28（Asia/Singapore）[S0] 根议题： 七月油价冲击撞上七月FOMC——美联储按兵不动能否扛住滞胀脉冲 本...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ad468bf6b7a4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 策略研究记录：6.88 突破情景下，A股市场结构是否验证红利重排？", "summary": "2026-07-28 策略研究记录：6.88 突破情景下，A股市场结构是否验证红利重排？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-119625bdbd03/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "688981.SH", "601088.SH", "601398.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-58f268edf9", "title": "隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-58f268edf9/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 — 把组合beta与现金约束落到A股风格与行业权重", "summary": "2026-07-28 — 把组合beta与现金约束落到A股风格与行业权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-985c70d038ff/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — A股提款机后的执行清单：互联互通、高两融担保科技股与高股息防御的 30% / 40% / 30%...", "summary": "前序研究 — A股提款机后的执行清单：互联互通、高两融担保科技股与高股息防御的 30% / 40% / 30% 凸性现金梯队", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-629f2f00eb3b/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-950a54ea98", "title": "保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-950a54ea98/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "summary": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-68004508ce6c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估...", "summary": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90ff8a3044e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-80c15f4a7d", "title": "再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-80c15f4a7d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 USD/CNH 对冲破位监测：期权、远期与中间价偏离", "summary": "2026-07-28 USD/CNH 对冲破位监测：期权、远期与中间价偏离", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f4ae8a690f6e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "summary": "2026-07-29 压力测试：USD/JPY 这一美元对冲腿能否扛住日元 carry unwind？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-68004508ce6c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-86be10e7fb", "title": "为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-86be10e7fb/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "USD/CNY上破6.88时的A股北向敏感度与风格降仓顺序", "summary": "既有研究记录 · 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) · 工作日期 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡） 研究记录 · 立场：synthesize（综合）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a23f511d9ebd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 · 研究记录09：USD/CNY 逼近7.05时，能源与大宗商品能否承接AI硬件流出？", "summary": "2026-07-28 · 研究记录09：USD/CNY 逼近7.05时，能源与大宗商品能否承接AI硬件流出？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de80b5c6418a/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CVX", "XOM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e58a9e8746", "title": "日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e58a9e8746/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI...", "summary": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI 资本开支的美元融资成本", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8eafb448eca4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估...", "summary": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90ff8a3044e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a13f19ec2d", "title": "红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a13f19ec2d/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 策略研究记录：6.88 突破情景下，A股市场结构是否验证红利重排？", "summary": "2026-07-28 策略研究记录：6.88 突破情景下，A股市场结构是否验证红利重排？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-119625bdbd03/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "前序研究 — A股提款机后的执行清单：互联互通、高两融担保科技股与高股息防御的 30% / 40% / 30%...", "summary": "前序研究 — A股提款机后的执行清单：互联互通、高两融担保科技股与高股息防御的 30% / 40% / 30% 凸性现金梯队", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-629f2f00eb3b/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601398.SH", "688981.SH", "510880.SH", "600941.SH", "601088.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-03dab97a77", "title": "人民币稳定使当前应保留滞胀杠铃，但用黄金、久期与轻USD对冲把组合从单一A股Beta改造成可按黄/红档汇率阶梯再平衡的跨资产防御组合。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币稳定使当前应保留滞胀杠铃，但用黄金、久期与轻USD对冲把组合从单一A股Beta改造成可按黄/红档汇率阶梯再平衡的跨资产防御组合。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-03dab97a77/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "USD/CNY上破6.88时的A股北向敏感度与风格降仓顺序", "summary": "既有研究记录 · 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) · 工作日期 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡） 研究记录 · 立场：synthesize（综合）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a23f511d9ebd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "USD/CNY 6.80–6.84 压力带的政策容忍度与 CNH 流动性验证", "summary": "USD/CNY 6.80–6.84 压力带的政策容忍度与 CNH 流动性验证", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c922a33f8747/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2e367ef854", "title": "美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2e367ef854/", "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08", "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "FOMC事件周——油价回落是否足以抵消关税与通胀风险？", "summary": "· 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a9133552725/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "宏观翻译：$74 / $90 / 00+ 布伦特情景对7月–8月CPI、核心PCE与7月29日声明的影响", "summary": "宏观翻译：$74 / $90 / 00+ 布伦特情景对7月–8月CPI、核心PCE与7月29日声明的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ad4f2399d591/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "XLE", "XLU", "TLT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c951442d7f", "title": "日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c951442d7f/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI...", "summary": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI 资本开支的美元融资成本", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8eafb448eca4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估...", "summary": "前序研究 — 把美元融资导线落回组合：为前序研究风险预算加入USD/JPY carry平仓凸性对冲腿并重估权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90ff8a3044e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-91cfb3e0f8", "title": "外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-91cfb3e0f8/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-29 — 纳入USD/CNH对冲成本后的最终跨资产仓位设定", "summary": "2026-07-29 — 纳入USD/CNH对冲成本后的最终跨资产仓位设定", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cb18c1994ba4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 波动率扩张对远期点差及执行成本的破坏性测试", "summary": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 波动率扩张对远期点差及执行成本的破坏性测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c8947bf5b24/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "KRE", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e12bcc0d59", "title": "PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e12bcc0d59/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "USD/CNY上破6.88时的A股北向敏感度与风格降仓顺序", "summary": "既有研究记录 · 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) · 工作日期 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡） 研究记录 · 立场：synthesize（综合）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a23f511d9ebd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "USD/CNY破6.88时的政策反应函数 — 工作日期2026-07-28", "summary": "USD/CNY破6.88时的政策反应函数 — 工作日期2026-07-28", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ba33f7ab5900/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "510300.SH", "512100.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-11523cabbd", "title": "熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-11523cabbd/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "USD/CNY 6.80–6.84 压力带的政策容忍度与 CNH 流动性验证", "summary": "USD/CNY 6.80–6.84 压力带的政策容忍度与 CNH 流动性验证", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c922a33f8747/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 — 人民币第一道闸门转黄后的预入金 CNH/USD 执行地图", "summary": "2026-07-28 — 人民币第一道闸门转黄后的预入金 CNH/USD 执行地图", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0b5a630be00c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d98ced0974", "title": "电力瓶颈会重排AI算力项目顺序，但不会让2025-2026年全球AI集群建设同步停摆。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力瓶颈会重排AI算力项目顺序，但不会让2025-2026年全球AI集群建设同步停摆。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d98ced0974/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 研究记录05：算力—电力瓶颈：AI基建与电网的相对权重", "summary": "2026-07-28 研究记录05：算力—电力瓶颈：AI基建与电网的相对权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-28715839ef21/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 研究记录06：电网设备细分环节的订单转化、利润率韧性与业绩弹性", "summary": "2026-07-28 研究记录06：电网设备细分环节的订单转化、利润率韧性与业绩弹性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-95fde6646957/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "601179.SH", "ETN", "600089.SH", "VST", "CEG" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f9ce8d294d", "title": "人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f9ce8d294d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 是否是 PBOC 利率脱钩的真正上限？", "summary": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 是否是 PBOC 利率脱钩的真正上限？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd7e41c7dae4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "USD/CNY 6.80–6.84 压力带的政策容忍度与 CNH 流动性验证", "summary": "USD/CNY 6.80–6.84 压力带的政策容忍度与 CNH 流动性验证", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c922a33f8747/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7b4a91628c", "title": "掉期成本翻正使 USD/CNH 远期曲线倒挂，远期由套保工具变为贬值信号；越过 3M CNH HIBOR ≈ 5.3% 拐点后，央行流动…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 掉期成本翻正使 USD/CNH 远期曲线倒挂，远期由套保工具变为贬值信号；越过 3M CNH HIBOR ≈ 5.3% 拐点后，央行流动…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7b4a91628c/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 触发网格：中间价偏离、CNH-CNY basis、CNH HIBOR 与企业套保流量", "summary": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 触发网格：中间价偏离、CNH-CNY basis、CNH HIBOR 与企业套保流量", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fcdd7cae94fc/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "CSVS 与 USD/CNH 的容量感知组合层叠加", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 首席策略师 · 立场： synthesize（综合） 工作日期： 2026-07-28，Asia/Singapore · 根主题： Section 301 新关税——是通胀慢变量还是供应链重定价？ 本报告片： 把 CS...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-08cbca3d6537/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-34ed317472", "title": "A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-34ed317472/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 — 已落地A股AI硬件账本的质押/两融强平级联压力测试", "summary": "2026-07-28 — 已落地A股AI硬件账本的质押/两融强平级联压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2efebaec656e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 · 研究记录08：AI→电网轮动在A股市场结构下的分批执行路径", "summary": "2026-07-28 · 研究记录08：AI→电网轮动在A股市场结构下的分批执行路径", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e36f62036452/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "510300.SH", "512100.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8bbbcdf5a4", "title": "GPU、HBM 与先进封装决定 AI 资本开支供给节奏", "titleEn": "GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging shape the AI capex supply cycle", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8bbbcdf5a4/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "存储重定价 → AI capex、服务器 BOM 与 GPU/ASIC 订单韧性 — 工作日期 2026-07-28", "summary": "存储重定价 → AI capex、服务器 BOM 与 GPU/ASIC 订单韧性 — 工作日期 2026-07-28", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-51e455ab4ed7/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "从稀缺叙事到循环融资恐惧：是去杠杆，还是 AI capex 叙事真正变质？", "summary": "从稀缺叙事到循环融资恐惧：是去杠杆，还是 AI capex 叙事真正变质？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1f264bf9ceb3/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "META", "AMD", "AVGO", "MU", "MSFT", "000660.KS", "GOOGL", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4e383ee09c", "title": "2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4e383ee09c/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 压力测试：若全球AI基础设施capex未达IDC路径，哪一环最先放缓——以及如何传导到中国...", "summary": "2026-07-28 压力测试：若全球AI基础设施capex未达IDC路径，哪一环最先放缓——以及如何传导到中国硬件出口、存储/先进封装盈利与人民币顺差？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dbf3d15c804c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "存储重定价 → AI capex、服务器 BOM 与 GPU/ASIC 订单韧性 — 工作日期 2026-07-28", "summary": "存储重定价 → AI capex、服务器 BOM 与 GPU/ASIC 订单韧性 — 工作日期 2026-07-28", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-51e455ab4ed7/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3986819dc0", "title": "A 股半导体的核心风险从订单验证转向 A/H 溢价、两融与负 Gamma", "titleEn": "A-share semiconductor risk is shifting from order proof to A/H premium, margin financing, and negative gamma", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3986819dc0/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 61, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "半导体与AI硬件两融持仓集中度：市值×杠杆是否足以触发系统性平仓连锁？", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 半导体分析师 · 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 工作日期： 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡） · 根主题： 霍尔木兹石油冲击撞上 Warsh 鹰派美联储——7 月 28–29 日 FOMC 前...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-150f1888c568/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 压力测试：科创50雪球负Gamma、Tier-1两融尾部与2.86万亿/2.80万亿去杠杆线", "summary": "2026-07-28 压力测试：科创50雪球负Gamma、Tier-1两融尾部与2.86万亿/2.80万亿去杠杆线", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-21a8126710e1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688981.SH", "688256.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "600900.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH", "300308.SZ", "002371.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-075017003b", "title": "AI 资本开支通过能源、设备和利率进入通胀定价", "titleEn": "AI capex enters inflation pricing through energy, equipment, and rates", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-075017003b/", "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08", "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 55, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI capex 周期：信用领先股票，还是纯技术性供给冲击？", "summary": "研究记录 · 作者：首席策略师 (chief-strategist) 工作日期：2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场：initial 根主题：AI capex 周期——信用与股票市场的背离，谁在领先？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f2874ec6264f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "主题轮动早扫描", "summary": "锚定日期： 2026-07-28，由 shell 命令 系统日期锚 确认。本文所有“今日 / 昨夜 / 上一交易日 / 下周”均以该日期为截止窗口；最新完整美股交易日为 2026-07-27。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3712d6a3b69c/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "XLE", "TLT", "XLU", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-42faeae623", "title": "CPO、光互联与铜连接决定 AI 集群内部租金迁移", "titleEn": "CPO, optical interconnect, and copper links define rent migration inside AI clusters", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-42faeae623/", "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956", "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 55, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 半导体/CPO订单验证分层", "summary": "截至研究所工作日期 2026-07-28，我支持前序 th T07 约束：AI硬件方向本身不是核心问题，但对拥挤的CPO/半导体领导股篮子做宽幅再入场仍应被阻断。当前正确的内部切换不是继续买Beta，而是转向...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3c5ef8c5c120/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 A股光模块与先进封装加回顺序", "summary": "研究记录 · 工作日期： 2026-07-28（Asia/Singapore） 作者： 半导体分析师（semiconductors-analyst） · 立场： synthesize（综合） 根议题： APLD是否把AI capex焦点从GPU转向租约资产？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5c7864a67fcd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "NVDA", "AVGO", "META", "COHR", "LITE", "300394.SZ", "MRVL", "TSM", "MSFT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-fd31cc177b", "title": "债券供给、地方债与久期需求决定利率下行空间", "titleEn": "Bond supply, local-government debt, and duration demand define room for rates to fall", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fd31cc177b/", "laneId": "lane_6fbf93c613f9", "lane": "债券供给/银行久期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/bond-supply-and-bank-duration/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 54, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "中国利率脱钩压力测试：PBOC 能否继续托住 A 股久期代理？", "summary": "全球宏观分析师 ( global-macro ) · research discussion 既有研究记录 · 工作日期：2026-07-28（Asia/Singapore）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-792c551728d4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 低利率FX防御格局下A股红利杠铃的拥挤度", "summary": "· 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） - 分析师： 首席策略师（chief-strategist） - 研究所工作日期： 2026-07-28 （Asia/Singapore）[S0] - 议题： 央企红利+上游杠铃是否已过度拥挤，以及CNH挤...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a8f30c7cb9a1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601398.SH", "601939.SH", "601288.SH", "3988.HK", "600900.SH", "TLT", "IEF", "000001.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-485a630a87", "title": "自动驾驶与 Robotaxi 主题必须从演示热度进入单位经济和监管城市扩张验证", "titleEn": "Autonomous driving and robotaxi themes must move from demo excitement to unit economics and regulated city expansion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-485a630a87/", "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da", "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 51, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试核心假设：hyperscaler capex 节奏与 GOOGL 收入锚的真实性", "summary": "压力测试核心假设：hyperscaler capex 节奏与 GOOGL 收入锚的真实性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bb1a01c250fd/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "日报总编午间同步简报（2026-07-28）", "summary": "日期锚点：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-28；本文所有“今日 / 上午 / 下午 / 昨日 / 上一交易日 / 本周 / 上周”均按 2026-07-28 解释。 - 内部资料状态：已拉取并通读 my recent report...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0ef48cc4f1af/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GOOGL", "TSLA", "NVDA", "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "BIDU", "XPEV", "002594.SZ", "2015.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e26ef69f73", "title": "风险核查与证据质量是主题交易的必要过滤器", "titleEn": "Risk verification and evidence quality are necessary filters for theme trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e26ef69f73/", "laneId": "lane_ccbe817778d1", "lane": "组合风控/证据质量", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/portfolio-risk-and-evidence-quality/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 全球宏观研究记录02：Warsh治下Fed反应函数及其向全球风险资产的传导", "summary": "2026-07-28 全球宏观研究记录02：Warsh治下Fed反应函数及其向全球风险资产的传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-273fa043aebc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "十字路口上的 Warsh 联储：7 月按兵不动，实为 9 月加息的铺垫", "summary": "研究研究记录 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 研究院工作日：2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡时区）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c740b695929e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "CBOE", "IBKR", "VIRT", "SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-813fa71c15", "title": "科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-813fa71c15/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 84, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 压力测试：科创50雪球负Gamma、Tier-1两融尾部与2.86万亿/2.80万亿去杠杆线", "summary": "2026-07-28 压力测试：科创50雪球负Gamma、Tier-1两融尾部与2.86万亿/2.80万亿去杠杆线", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-21a8126710e1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688008.SH", "688041.SH", "688012.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a0828c5498", "title": "在两融余额突破3.015万亿元且电子板块平均CMR跌至138.55%的背景下，下周一强平盘（约1460亿）释放是否会刺穿市场底？组合应如…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在两融余额突破3.015万亿元且电子板块平均CMR跌至138.55%的背景下，下周一强平盘（约1460亿）释放是否会刺穿市场底？组合应如…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a0828c5498/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 82, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 压力测试：科创50雪球负Gamma、Tier-1两融尾部与2.86万亿/2.80万亿去杠杆线", "summary": "2026-07-28 压力测试：科创50雪球负Gamma、Tier-1两融尾部与2.86万亿/2.80万亿去杠杆线", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-21a8126710e1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "510300.SH", "512100.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f23572dfb8", "title": "Advance th_p_2ca41751 (能源价格冲突引发的全球通胀路径分化): 若 Brent 在停火提案与航运威胁之间维持 85…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Advance th_p_2ca41751 (能源价格冲突引发的全球通胀路径分化): 若 Brent 在停火提案与航运威胁之间维持 85…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f23572dfb8/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "FOMC事件周——油价回落是否足以抵消关税与通胀风险？", "summary": "· 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a9133552725/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "0857.HK", "SLB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d03c2555a8", "title": "美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d03c2555a8/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 · 研究记录09：USD/CNY 逼近7.05时，能源与大宗商品能否承接AI硬件流出？", "summary": "2026-07-28 · 研究记录09：USD/CNY 逼近7.05时，能源与大宗商品能否承接AI硬件流出？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de80b5c6418a/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a4bf9a5c22", "title": "在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a4bf9a5c22/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — A股提款机后的执行清单：互联互通、高两融担保科技股与高股息防御的 30% / 40% / 30%...", "summary": "前序研究 — A股提款机后的执行清单：互联互通、高两融担保科技股与高股息防御的 30% / 40% / 30% 凸性现金梯队", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-629f2f00eb3b/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688012.SH", "688041.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9a926eda26", "title": "本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a926eda26/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 前序研究 — 公用事业/电力作为红利核心的补充：在人民币逐档压降 AI 算力权重时守住组...", "summary": "2026-07-28 前序研究 — 公用事业/电力作为红利核心的补充：在人民币逐档压降 AI 算力权重时守住组合夏普比率", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5c954d3c15ad/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "600905.SH", "DUK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0e8748c14f", "title": "科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e8748c14f/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — A股提款机后的执行清单：互联互通、高两融担保科技股与高股息防御的 30% / 40% / 30%...", "summary": "前序研究 — A股提款机后的执行清单：互联互通、高两融担保科技股与高股息防御的 30% / 40% / 30% 凸性现金梯队", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-629f2f00eb3b/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH", "688012.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3cafa5bcd5", "title": "在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cafa5bcd5/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 前序研究 — 人民币升值对美元计价AI算力出口毛利的压力测试", "summary": "2026-07-28 前序研究 — 人民币升值对美元计价AI算力出口毛利的压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-25afb697563a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-08b70be7bf", "title": "在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08b70be7bf/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 研究记录05：算力—电力瓶颈：AI基建与电网的相对权重", "summary": "2026-07-28 研究记录05：算力—电力瓶颈：AI基建与电网的相对权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-28715839ef21/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e40b25962e", "title": "A股“大行+红利/稀缺成长”哑铃配置在低杠杆与高可视度Backlog支撑下并未拥挤，而弱区域中小银行因资产质量二阶传导滞后与重度稀释风险…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股“大行+红利/稀缺成长”哑铃配置在低杠杆与高可视度Backlog支撑下并未拥挤，而弱区域中小银行因资产质量二阶传导滞后与重度稀释风险…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e40b25962e/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 策略研究记录：6.88 突破情景下，A股市场结构是否验证红利重排？", "summary": "2026-07-28 策略研究记录：6.88 突破情景下，A股市场结构是否验证红利重排？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-119625bdbd03/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601398.SH", "601088.SH", "600941.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7930de9cdc", "title": "沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7930de9cdc/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI...", "summary": "全球久期与美元：期限溢价上行是不是一场美联储无法对冲的全球现象，它如何反射到 USD/JPY 与 AI 资本开支的美元融资成本", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8eafb448eca4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-97f10202a2", "title": "中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-97f10202a2/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 · 研究记录09：USD/CNY 逼近7.05时，能源与大宗商品能否承接AI硬件流出？", "summary": "2026-07-28 · 研究记录09：USD/CNY 逼近7.05时，能源与大宗商品能否承接AI硬件流出？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de80b5c6418a/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3156277f22", "title": "哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3156277f22/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 是否是 PBOC 利率脱钩的真正上限？", "summary": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 是否是 PBOC 利率脱钩的真正上限？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd7e41c7dae4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-413f4aecc1", "title": "长江电力等红利拥挤度处于95%历史极值，且股息率利差压缩至历史低点，而在跨境分段生产解禁及创新药商业化兑现下医药板块大涨，这是否标志着A…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 长江电力等红利拥挤度处于95%历史极值，且股息率利差压缩至历史低点，而在跨境分段生产解禁及创新药商业化兑现下医药板块大涨，这是否标志着A…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-413f4aecc1/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 策略研究记录：6.88 突破情景下，A股市场结构是否验证红利重排？", "summary": "2026-07-28 策略研究记录：6.88 突破情景下，A股市场结构是否验证红利重排？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-119625bdbd03/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "600905.SH", "DUK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-54a65a88ba", "title": "请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-54a65a88ba/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 是否是 PBOC 利率脱钩的真正上限？", "summary": "2026-07-28 — USD/CNH 是否是 PBOC 利率脱钩的真正上限？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd7e41c7dae4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "UUP", "FXI", "2800.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ace402c8b6", "title": "科创板极端护盘对A股整体流动性的虹吸效应与跨板块资产配置调整 研究日期： 2026 05 22 作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Str…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创板极端护盘对A股整体流动性的虹吸效应与跨板块资产配置调整 研究日期： 2026 05 22 作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Str…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ace402c8b6/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "FX红区破位撞上A股两融踩踏线：哪些板块被迫清算", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 首席策略师（ashare-strategist）· 立场： 综合（synthesize） 工作日： 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 根主题： 霍尔木兹石油冲击撞上 Warsh 鹰派美联储——7 月 28–29...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ef2f8774d1d3/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "P", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-6fd1b8808d", "title": "资金成本上行与长端利率有锚下的A股风格轮动和金融板块配置", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 资金成本上行与长端利率有锚下的A股风格轮动和金融板块配置", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6fd1b8808d/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-28 A股上游央企与红利/低波ETF权重规则", "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-28 A股上游央企与红利/低波ETF权重规则", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-723a148d8de9/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601088.SH", "601398.SH", "600941.SH", "510880.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-979591277f", "title": "能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-979591277f/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "鹰派美联储叠加加息中的日本央行：美元/日元套息交易的反转风险", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 立场： 压力测试（针对研究记录 01 的\"鹰派式维持／可能加息\"美联储判断） - 工作日： 2026-07-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 落款日期： 2026...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-62dbb8f03800/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-250964b5dc", "title": "强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-250964b5dc/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 鹰派Fed再定价下的USD/CNH凸性对冲规模", "summary": "研究所工作日期： 2026-07-28 （Asia/Singapore）。本报告（4/8）把前三卡的宏观主线（既有研究记录）落到FX执行层面： 在9月加息概率维持80%-85%、油价重新上行、A股外资流出压力扩大...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fc6f227bdf20/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0bad2eebc1", "title": "北美大型云厂商因53个月并网等待和PJM容量价格触及上限，面临80-290bn的Capex下修延期压力，这如何重塑全球AI算力及AS…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 北美大型云厂商因53个月并网等待和PJM容量价格触及上限，面临80-290bn的Capex下修延期压力，这如何重塑全球AI算力及AS…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0bad2eebc1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "存储重定价 → AI capex、服务器 BOM 与 GPU/ASIC 订单韧性 — 工作日期 2026-07-28", "summary": "存储重定价 → AI capex、服务器 BOM 与 GPU/ASIC 订单韧性 — 工作日期 2026-07-28", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-51e455ab4ed7/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "ETN", "CEG", "601179.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d0faeae7f0", "title": "NAND价格与产品组合驱动SanDisk盈利弹性", "titleEn": "NAND pricing and mix drive SanDisk earnings leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d0faeae7f0/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 72, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "从稀缺叙事到循环融资恐惧：是去杠杆，还是 AI capex 叙事真正变质？", "summary": "从稀缺叙事到循环融资恐惧：是去杠杆，还是 AI capex 叙事真正变质？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1f264bf9ceb3/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS", "META", "AMD" ] }, { "id": "thesis-10f0672291", "title": "科创50单日+8.41%后，团队应把硬科技升为中期主线，还是在两融、广度、ETF申赎确认前按拥挤反弹处理？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50单日+8.41%后，团队应把硬科技升为中期主线，还是在两融、广度、ETF申赎确认前按拥挤反弹处理？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-10f0672291/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 71, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "买回清单的市场结构可行性：两融容量、8月解禁日历与指数ETF吸收力能否支撑分档节奏 — 工作日期20...", "summary": "买回清单的市场结构可行性：两融容量、8月解禁日历与指数ETF吸收力能否支撑分档节奏 — 工作日期2026-07-28", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2713a79a769b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688008.SH", "688012.SH", "688041.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2fe5298427", "title": "Sivers (SIVE:STO) 概念被供应链证伪，而国内电子板块融资余额高达5608亿元，四大半导体龙头两融保证金缺口达93.81亿…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Sivers (SIVE:STO) 概念被供应链证伪，而国内电子板块融资余额高达5608亿元，四大半导体龙头两融保证金缺口达93.81亿…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2fe5298427/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 69, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — A股提款机后的执行清单：互联互通、高两融担保科技股与高股息防御的 30% / 40% / 30%...", "summary": "前序研究 — A股提款机后的执行清单：互联互通、高两融担保科技股与高股息防御的 30% / 40% / 30% 凸性现金梯队", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-629f2f00eb3b/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ffa474a3f2", "title": "端侧 AI 与 Agent 桌面正在把算力竞争从云端扩展到芯片、OS 与消费电子供应链", "titleEn": "Edge AI and agent desktops are extending compute competition from cloud to chips, OS, and consumer-electronics supply...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ffa474a3f2/", "laneId": "lane_74d352e86208", "lane": "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/edge-ai-and-agent-desktop-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "既有研究记录研究报告 — 2026-07-28", "summary": "既有研究记录研究报告 — 2026-07-28", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7667446e5915/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "MSFT", "NVDA", "META", "AAPL", "AMZN", "AMD", "ARM", "QCOM", "GOOGL", "002475.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d614778e40", "title": "CAR-T商业化取决于进院、支付与订单转化", "titleEn": "CAR-T commercialization depends on hospital access, reimbursement, and order conversion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d614778e40/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "医药行业午间碰头会简报（2026-07-28）", "summary": "日期锚点：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-28；本文所有“今日 / 昨日 / 本周 / 上一交易日 / 下午”均按 2026-07-28 解析。 - 资料完整性： my recent reports.md 、 my disputed claims.m...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dc4446e5f124/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "1801.HK", "600276.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "603259.SH", "1177.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-58200390b4", "title": "加密资产仍是全球流动性和散户风险偏好的高频回声", "titleEn": "Crypto remains a high-frequency echo of global liquidity and retail risk appetite", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-58200390b4/", "laneId": "lane_73a269a07a15", "lane": "加密/高波动风险偏好", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/crypto-and-high-beta-risk-appetite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "盘中主题资金流扫描", "summary": "日期锚点： 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-28。本文所有“今日 / 盘中 / 本周 / 上一交易日”均按该日期解析。 数据窗口： 截至行情源最新快照 2026-07-28 00:15 UTC；对应美股上一完整交易日为...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-07a5b03917c0/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "MSTR", "COIN", "IBIT", "HOOD", "RIOT", "NVDA", "LOW", "MARA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0a0d09421e", "title": "AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0a0d09421e/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 研究卡：AI数据中心项目融资与电力交付可信度分层", "summary": "截至研究院工作日 2026-07-28，我支持前序研究的判断：AI基础设施正在被项目融资质量、并网路径和电力成本分摊机制重新定价，而不是被简单理解为算力需求崩塌 [S1][S17]。可投资的分界线已经不...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-98bc63a56ed9/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a3cb9196a0", "title": "随着AI算力扩建撞上电力电网并网物理速度墙，变压器与硅钢（GOES）结构性缺口高达30%，投产延迟WACC损失巨大，形成约35倍的经济杠…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 随着AI算力扩建撞上电力电网并网物理速度墙，变压器与硅钢（GOES）结构性缺口高达30%，投产延迟WACC损失巨大，形成约35倍的经济杠…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a3cb9196a0/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 研究记录05：算力—电力瓶颈：AI基建与电网的相对权重", "summary": "2026-07-28 研究记录05：算力—电力瓶颈：AI基建与电网的相对权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-28715839ef21/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "601179.SH", "600089.SH", "688676.SH", "CEG" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c2eb2a0b9d", "title": "AI 租赁营收的兑现并非取决于芯片购买量，而是取决于长达 2-4 年的电力交付周期，物理稀缺性正成为限制营收增速的硬顶。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI 租赁营收的兑现并非取决于芯片购买量，而是取决于长达 2-4 年的电力交付周期，物理稀缺性正成为限制营收增速的硬顶。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c2eb2a0b9d/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 研究记录05：算力—电力瓶颈：AI基建与电网的相对权重", "summary": "2026-07-28 研究记录05：算力—电力瓶颈：AI基建与电网的相对权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-28715839ef21/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "601179.SH", "600089.SH", "CEG", "688676.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d1f5e35b43", "title": "2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d1f5e35b43/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "存储重定价 → AI capex、服务器 BOM 与 GPU/ASIC 订单韧性 — 工作日期 2026-07-28", "summary": "存储重定价 → AI capex、服务器 BOM 与 GPU/ASIC 订单韧性 — 工作日期 2026-07-28", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-51e455ab4ed7/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a119a01ce4", "title": "评估AI算力能耗增长对电力与电网瓶颈的影响，以及能源成本压力如何传导至下游CXO产业链。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 评估AI算力能耗增长对电力与电网瓶颈的影响，以及能源成本压力如何传导至下游CXO产业链。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a119a01ce4/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 研究记录05：算力—电力瓶颈：AI基建与电网的相对权重", "summary": "2026-07-28 研究记录05：算力—电力瓶颈：AI基建与电网的相对权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-28715839ef21/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "002028.SZ", "CEG", "601179.SH", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-70daf87262", "title": "A 股红利与硬科技杠铃仍是政策、利率和风险偏好的组合表达", "titleEn": "A-share dividend and hard-tech barbell remains the portfolio expression of policy, rates, and risk appetite", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-70daf87262/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "strengthening", "directionLabel": "强化", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 低利率FX防御格局下A股红利杠铃的拥挤度", "summary": "· 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） - 分析师： 首席策略师（chief-strategist） - 研究所工作日期： 2026-07-28 （Asia/Singapore）[S0] - 议题： 央企红利+上游杠铃是否已过度拥挤，以及CNH挤...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a8f30c7cb9a1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601398.SH", "601088.SH", "600941.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "601939.SH", "510880.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3cb5657bb3", "title": "智能驾驶供应商拐点取决于定点转量产和毛利率修复", "titleEn": "The smart-driving supplier inflection depends on program conversion and margin recovery", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cb5657bb3/", "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da", "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "日报总编午间同步简报（2026-07-28）", "summary": "日期锚点：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-28；本文所有“今日 / 上午 / 下午 / 昨日 / 上一交易日 / 本周 / 上周”均按 2026-07-28 解释。 - 内部资料状态：已拉取并通读 my recent report...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0ef48cc4f1af/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSLA", "NVDA", "GOOGL", "1274.HK", "002594.SZ", "XPEV" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4f2d0121d3", "title": "高利润率出口材料企业需等待利润修复确认", "titleEn": "High-margin export materials require confirmation of profit recovery", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f2d0121d3/", "laneId": "lane_7e439482cbef", "lane": "中国出口制造/利润率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-export-manufacturing-and-margins/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 研究记录06：电网设备细分环节的订单转化、利润率韧性与业绩弹性", "summary": "2026-07-28 研究记录06：电网设备细分环节的订单转化、利润率韧性与业绩弹性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-95fde6646957/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600690.SH", "000333.SZ", "600900.SH", "002139.SZ", "2313.HK", "605183.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4b3b37e207", "title": "散户情绪与北向资金背离是 A 股风险偏好的关键温度计", "titleEn": "Retail sentiment versus northbound flow divergence is the key A-share risk thermometer", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b3b37e207/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "§1 THESIS — 论点", "summary": "author: daily-report-editor as of: 2026-07-28 market window: EOD market: AH tickers: [000001.SH, 000016.SH, 000300.SH, 399006.SZ, 000688.SH, HSI.HK, …", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c5f98c90cccd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "300308.SZ", "300750.SZ", "600519.SH", "159915.SZ", "510300.SH", "688256.SH", "600900.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-89c14497ac", "title": "期权伽马、ETF 与尾盘流动性正在放大主题交易的微观结构风险", "titleEn": "Options gamma, ETFs, and closing liquidity are amplifying microstructure risk in theme trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-89c14497ac/", "laneId": "lane_2ba2ee6db1ee", "lane": "期权伽马/市场微观结构", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/options-gamma-and-market-microstructure/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 — AI 记忆体 / 信用基差对冲的可执行期权结构", "summary": "2026-07-28 — AI 记忆体 / 信用基差对冲的可执行期权结构", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-09adea284dfc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CBOE", "CME", "HOOD", "IBKR", "VIRT", "VIXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-741d1d6f34", "title": "地产、土地财政与 REITs 是中国信用底的慢变量", "titleEn": "Property, land finance, and REITs are the slow variables behind China's credit floor", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-741d1d6f34/", "laneId": "lane_5c8ea9f78210", "lane": "地产信用底/REITs", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-property-credit-floor-and-reits/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 61, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 研究研究记录06：财政托底但无广谱再通胀下的A股配置 [S1][S4]", "summary": "2026-07-28 研究研究记录06：财政托底但无广谱再通胀下的A股配置 [S1][S4]", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c8c8a3face27/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "1109.HK", "600048.SH", "001979.SZ", "0960.HK", "0688.HK", "000002.SZ", "0823.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-6f42e0fe6e", "title": "稀土、铜铝与关键材料正在成为 AI 与新能源共用的供给约束", "titleEn": "Rare earths, copper, aluminum, and key materials are becoming shared supply constraints for AI and energy transition", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6f42e0fe6e/", "laneId": "lane_8c4a3526fcca", "lane": "关键材料/稀土铜铝", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/critical-materials-rare-earths-copper-and-aluminum/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 58, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "材料行业周报研究（2026-08-03 至 2026-08-07）", "summary": "锚定日期： 系统日期锚 = 2026-08-09。本报告覆盖最近一个完整交易周（周一 2026-08-03 至周五 2026-08-07）。经复核，本周中国大陆、香港、美国、LME 均未出现因公众假期导致的整日休市...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-068acd81664f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "FCX", "GEV", "000831.SZ", "SCCO", "ETN", "MP", "TECK", "600111.SH", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-44cf9d91f6", "title": "中国大健康 Alpha 正从医保压价转向创新药出海、临床确定性与设备刚需", "titleEn": "China healthcare alpha is moving from reimbursement pressure to overseas licensing, clinical certainty, and equipment...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-44cf9d91f6/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 57, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "医药行业午间碰头会简报（2026-07-28）", "summary": "日期锚点：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-28；本文所有“今日 / 昨日 / 本周 / 上一交易日 / 下午”均按 2026-07-28 解析。 - 资料完整性： my recent reports.md 、 my disputed claims.m...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dc4446e5f124/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "2359.HK", "600276.SH", "1801.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "6990.HK", "300760.SZ", "603259.SH", "1177.HK", "002821.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-603a5f7966", "title": "A 股硬科技与科创50的复苏需要订单、融资盘和指数结构共振", "titleEn": "A-share hard tech and STAR50 recovery needs orders, margin positioning, and index structure to align", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-603a5f7966/", "laneId": "lane_4cc1e74d8e5f", "lane": "A股硬科技/科创50", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-hard-tech-and-star50/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 56, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — A股提款机后的执行清单：互联互通、高两融担保科技股与高股息防御的 30% / 40% / 30%...", "summary": "前序研究 — A股提款机后的执行清单：互联互通、高两融担保科技股与高股息防御的 30% / 40% / 30% 凸性现金梯队", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-629f2f00eb3b/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "600900.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH", "300394.SZ", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d4473d35e5", "title": "猪周期、粮食与农产品价格决定中国低通胀修复的弹性", "titleEn": "Hog cycle, grain, and agricultural prices define the elasticity of China's low-inflation repair", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d4473d35e5/", "laneId": "lane_6e276fa53da1", "lane": "食品农业/猪周期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-agriculture-and-hog-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 56, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "主要粮食品种价格走势监控", "summary": "分析师： 农业行业分析师（agri-analyst） 日期： 2026-07-28（数据窗口：2026年7月中下旬，截至7月24–27日） 监控品种： 玉米、小麦、大豆、稻谷/大米（含国际 CBOT 与国内现货）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-69ca1289d2e5/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002714.SZ", "001215.SZ", "300498.SZ", "000876.SZ", "CME", "600298.SH", "ADM", "DBA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-21dd72c1b1", "title": "航空航天与国防供应链错配正在形成政策驱动的制造业弹性", "titleEn": "Aerospace and defense supply-chain mismatch is creating policy-driven manufacturing beta", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-21dd72c1b1/", "laneId": "lane_1514a60f727a", "lane": "国防航空航天供应链", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/defense-and-aerospace-supply-chain/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 55, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "工业制造午间碰头会简报（2026-07-29）", "summary": "日期锚点：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-29。本文所有“今天 / 上午 / 下午 / 今晚 / 上一交易日”均按该日期解析；美股数据以最近一个完整交易日 2026-07-28 收盘为准，FOMC 决议于今晚...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d3ba2d06e0db/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "LMT", "RTX", "NOC", "RKLB", "BA", "CAT", "IRDM", "ASTS", "HWM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-66eb42380e", "title": "海洋经济的政策催化需要落到船舶订单、海工装备与海上资源现金流", "titleEn": "Marine-economy policy support must convert into ship orders, offshore equipment, and offshore-resource cash flow", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-66eb42380e/", "laneId": "lane_f8b4918fe5b3", "lane": "海洋经济/船舶海工", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/marine-economy-shipbuilding-and-offshore-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "§1 THESIS", "summary": "author: morning-brief-editor as of: 2026-07-28 market window: pre-open market: AH tickers: [688825.SH, 603986.SH, 300308.SZ, 002384.SZ, 300750.SZ, 68…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4fe0b506773f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601890.SH", "600150.SH", "600938.SH", "600583.SH", "603727.SH", "000039.SZ", "0883.HK", "300589.SZ", "601919.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ce29facfbd", "title": "中国资产定价仍受政策、流动性与风险偏好共同驱动", "titleEn": "China asset pricing remains driven by policy, liquidity, and risk appetite", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ce29facfbd/", "laneId": "lane_a8d9c69ae883", "lane": "中国权益流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-equity-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 52, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 A股策略研究记录03：Fed冲击、人民币压力、北向流入与融资盘降风险", "summary": "2026-07-28 A股策略研究记录03：Fed冲击、人民币压力、北向流入与融资盘降风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-38cc603bd754/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "0700.HK", "9988.HK", "510300.SH", "159915.SZ", "300750.SZ", "3988.HK", "588000.SH", "LOW" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9a860a8801", "title": "信用再融资压力正在把利率风险转化为资产负债表筛选", "titleEn": "Credit refinancing pressure is turning rate risk into balance-sheet selection", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a860a8801/", "laneId": "lane_b29e1d216a21", "lane": "信用再融资/私募信贷", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/credit-refinancing-and-private-debt/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 52, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "APLD 融资栈能否吸收 2–3 季度通电滑期：利率/信用利差路径下的资本结构压力测试", "summary": "APLD 融资栈能否吸收 2–3 季度通电滑期：利率/信用利差路径下的资本结构压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a99703ac1639/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "KRE", "JPM", "META", "BX", "ARES", "KKR", "APO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3d421524cd", "title": "油价地缘底线决定再通胀与降息交易的安全边际", "titleEn": "The geopolitical oil floor defines the margin of safety for disinflation and rate-cut trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3d421524cd/", "laneId": 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03 行业定位.md 、 04 催化剂.md 、 05 三表模型.md 与 06 盈利预测.md。[自测算] 估值基准日采用可取得的 2026-07-28 市场数据...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-29b8ba0b43cb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300760.SZ", "688271.SH", "300633.SZ", "688212.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "688617.SH", "DHR", "SDGR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-aa97a5c1b3", "title": "家装链的胜负手在存量房翻新、国补触达与地产后周期库存去化", "titleEn": "Home improvement depends on existing-home renovation, subsidy reach, and post-property inventory digestion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-aa97a5c1b3/", "laneId": "lane_1efa26c729b6", "lane": "家装/地产后周期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/home-improvement-and-post-property-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股如何给出海/翻新家装链定价 - 2026-07-28", "summary": "截至研究院工作日 2026-07-28，本报告综合前序逻辑：科顺这类公司的现金流与收入结构切换是真实的，但A股尚未提前定价整个出海/翻新家装链。最优表达不是板块超配，而是个股alpha为主；只有在能...", "href": 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"电网设备的超额收益不能再由长交期单独解释；GEV、ETN、002028.SZ、600089.SH和601179.SH需要按订单质量、价格纪律与现金转化分层，云厂商则按已签电力合同和确定通电日期筛选。" }, { "title": "A股硬科技踩踏可信，但系统性连锁尚需负Gamma桥梁", "view": "电子两融的高集中度使688256.SH、300308.SZ等薄流通、高估值标的成为局部去杠杆震中；但平均维持担保比例278%，意味着两融总量本身不足以自动推出全市场强平。风险升级依赖588000.SH所代表的科创50跌入雪球敲入带，继而经ETF赎回和交易商负Gamma对冲传至688981.SH、688012.SH等指数权重股。", "whyItMatters": "这一区分决定风险管理对象：短期先约束高拥挤Tier-1硬科技，而不是把所有半导体基本面一并判空；只有指数敲入、ETF赎回与融资尾部共振时，才应把局部事件上调为市场级流动性风险。" }, { "title": "红利已变拥挤交易，但低利率锚尚未失效", "view": "红利ETF流入、南向集中持仓和7月补涨说明买点变窄；但主动偏股基金对中证红利仍低配，银行和交通运输融资增量也明显弱于通信与电子，因此“终局式拥挤”尚未被证实。宏观压力测试认为PBOC近期仍可容忍1.70%—1.75%附近的中国10年国债，但若收益率靠近1.90%，银行与水电将停止充当稳定缓冲器。", "whyItMatters": "601398.SH、600941.SH和600900.SH仍可承担防御功能，但其估值保护取决于中国利率、汇率和被动资金赎回；0883.HK等资源现金流在输入型通胀与人民币压力共振时更可能成为杠铃的有效对冲腿。" } ] } ], "milestones": [], "topicCounts": [ { "id": "macro-rates", "labelZh": "宏观、通胀与利率", "labelEn": "Macro, inflation and rates", "color": "red", "keywords": [ "宏观", "通胀", "inflation", "利率", "yield", "美联储", "fed", "cpi", "pce", "美元" ], "count": 317 }, 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