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"/investor/reports/archive-7015ecd95b56/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "美联储的供给冲击困局：7月29日\"按兵不动\"背后，反应函数已被油价挟持", "summary": "研究记录 01 · 首席经济学家（ chief-economist ）· 工作日期：2026-07-27（Asia/Singapore） 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90dac4761fd8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "Warsh 联储的首场\"零指引\"会议:油价驱动的 7月29日意外加息风险", "summary": "Warsh 联储的首场\"零指引\"会议:油价驱动的 7月29日意外加息风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e14544d30795/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CVX", "XOM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a60b131c8c", "title": "面对4.2%的总体CPI与108美元的布伦特原油，新任主席沃什将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上如何调整点阵图与政策立场？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 面对4.2%的总体CPI与108美元的布伦特原油，新任主席沃什将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上如何调整点阵图与政策立场？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a60b131c8c/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 7, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "油价—美联储三情景下的跨资产配置：久期、美元、能源、通胀盈亏平衡与权益", "summary": "研究记录日期：2026-07-27，亚洲/新加坡时区。；research note；立场： 综合（synthesize）。作者：首席策略师。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0f1b5636d0ed/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "霍尔木兹石油冲击撞上七月FOMC：美联储的滞胀大考", "summary": "分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师） · 研究研究记录 研究院工作日： 2026-07-27（亚洲/新加坡） · 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-01f0ed88c841/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "霍尔木兹石油冲击与美联储反应函数：通往 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC 的滞胀交叉流", "summary": "霍尔木兹石油冲击与美联储反应函数：通往 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC 的滞胀交叉流", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2df3ce8a357f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "霍尔木兹油价冲击撞上 7 月 29 日 FOMC —— 全球央行的一次供给冲击压力测试", "summary": "霍尔木兹油价冲击撞上 7 月 29 日 FOMC —— 全球央行的一次供给冲击压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3b128533d3f4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-86be10e7fb", "title": "为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-86be10e7fb/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 2, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "强美元、高美债利率与油价冲击下的A股风格轮动", "summary": "研究记录日期：2026-07-27，Asia/Singapore。；research note；立场： 综合（synthesize）。作者：首席策略师。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eef34be1ed15/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "油价—美联储三情景下的跨资产配置：久期、美元、能源、通胀盈亏平衡与权益", "summary": "研究记录日期：2026-07-27，亚洲/新加坡时区。；research note；立场： 综合（synthesize）。作者：首席策略师。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0f1b5636d0ed/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 USD/CNY 7.10 压力下能源红利板块的现金流稳定性与估值边际", "summary": "2026-07-27 USD/CNY 7.10 压力下能源红利板块的现金流稳定性与估值边际", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-45487d339432/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 美元 overlay 的 USD/CNY 成本与在岸传导", "summary": "2026-07-27 美元 overlay 的 USD/CNY 成本与在岸传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a13b1b744ac8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CVX", "XOM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f62e29bf1c", "title": "在SpaceX将于6月12日进行股权交易且美债高企下，太空经济是否已告别散户概念炒作，转向由SpaceX价格伞、国防合同与垂直整合总装定…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在SpaceX将于6月12日进行股权交易且美债高企下，太空经济是否已告别散户概念炒作，转向由SpaceX价格伞、国防合同与垂直整合总装定…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f62e29bf1c/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 2, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27 A股商业航天策略：半年报/三季报验证窗口前的仓位与交易结构", "summary": "2026-07-27 A股商业航天策略：半年报/三季报验证窗口前的仓位与交易结构", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fc61e12a9f26/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-27的SPCX：从SpaceX基本面转向流通盘、QQQ与解禁交易", "summary": "2026-07-27的SPCX：从SpaceX基本面转向流通盘、QQQ与解禁交易", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-933fc220c8be/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 宏观流动性压力测试：A股总量资金能否承接商业航天小流通盘Beta？", "summary": "2026-07-27 宏观流动性压力测试：A股总量资金能否承接商业航天小流通盘Beta？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-df04d7421dbd/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "SPCX 结构性交易向 A 股商业航天低流通盘代理的映射", "summary": "研究记录 · 作者角色： 首席策略师（A股策略、风格轮动、行业配置） 工作日期（Asia/Singapore）： 2026-07-27 · 立场： 支持（延伸研究记录 01）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-619140f9d606/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600118.SH", "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "300762.SZ", "LUNR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0e520ff02a", "title": "能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e520ff02a/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 2, "risks": 6, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "油价—美联储三情景下的跨资产配置：久期、美元、能源、通胀盈亏平衡与权益", "summary": "研究记录日期：2026-07-27，亚洲/新加坡时区。；research note；立场： 综合（synthesize）。作者：首席策略师。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0f1b5636d0ed/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "强美元、高美债利率与油价冲击下的A股风格轮动", "summary": "研究记录日期：2026-07-27，Asia/Singapore。；research note；立场： 综合（synthesize）。作者：首席策略师。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eef34be1ed15/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "限制性 Warsh 机制下的跨资产重定位：股票久期、债券久期、黄金与美元", "summary": "限制性 Warsh 机制下的跨资产重定位：股票久期、债券久期、黄金与美元", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-034ffc3e9428/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "两根久期相反的供给侧支柱下的美联储终端利率分布与2027 SEP路径", "summary": "分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） · 立场： synthesize（综合） · 工作日期： 2026-07-27（亚洲/新加坡） · 研究记录", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7015ecd95b56/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CVX", "XOM", "SLB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2e367ef854", "title": "美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2e367ef854/", "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08", "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 2, "risks": 5, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "将Brent供给情景映射到美国CPI、通胀预期与9月FOMC反应函数（工作日期：2026-07-27）", "summary": "将Brent供给情景映射到美国CPI、通胀预期与9月FOMC反应函数（工作日期：2026-07-27）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-95ba343524fc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 全球宏观研究记录：美国通胀、7月FOMC与熊陡检验", "summary": "2026-07-27 全球宏观研究记录：美国通胀、7月FOMC与熊陡检验", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-096fda3fd84a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 首席策略师综合：FOMC、PCE、ECI 前的 A股风格轮动打法", "summary": "2026-07-27 首席策略师综合：FOMC、PCE、ECI 前的 A股风格轮动打法", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3b0071cf735b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "把电力这根第二根供给侧通胀支柱纳入9月FOMC反应函数与终端利率路径的赋权", "summary": "把电力这根第二根供给侧通胀支柱纳入9月FOMC反应函数与终端利率路径的赋权", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5318a23d49ae/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "XLE", "XLU", "TLT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8ca3d181f3", "title": "能源价格重心的下移提供了一次缓和全球“滞胀”压力的正向供给冲击，虽然成功消解了美欧央行的强行加息风险，但在低储蓄率、物流滞后与-273…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源价格重心的下移提供了一次缓和全球“滞胀”压力的正向供给冲击，虽然成功消解了美欧央行的强行加息风险，但在低储蓄率、物流滞后与-273…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8ca3d181f3/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 6, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "石油冲击下的美联储：Warsh 的抗通胀防线撞上 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC", "summary": "石油冲击下的美联储：Warsh 的抗通胀防线撞上 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a03cb191f369/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "将Brent供给情景映射到美国CPI、通胀预期与9月FOMC反应函数（工作日期：2026-07-27）", "summary": "将Brent供给情景映射到美国CPI、通胀预期与9月FOMC反应函数（工作日期：2026-07-27）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-95ba343524fc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "霍尔木兹石油冲击撞上七月FOMC：美联储的滞胀大考", "summary": "分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师） · 研究研究记录 研究院工作日： 2026-07-27（亚洲/新加坡） · 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-01f0ed88c841/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "限制性 Warsh 机制下的跨资产重定位：股票久期、债券久期、黄金与美元", "summary": "限制性 Warsh 机制下的跨资产重定位：股票久期、债券久期、黄金与美元", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-034ffc3e9428/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4be65dd130", "title": "基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4be65dd130/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 2, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "油价—美联储三情景下的跨资产配置：久期、美元、能源、通胀盈亏平衡与权益", "summary": "研究记录日期：2026-07-27，亚洲/新加坡时区。；research note；立场： 综合（synthesize）。作者：首席策略师。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0f1b5636d0ed/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "美联储的供给冲击困局：7月29日\"按兵不动\"背后，反应函数已被油价挟持", "summary": "研究记录 01 · 首席经济学家（ chief-economist ）· 工作日期：2026-07-27（Asia/Singapore） 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90dac4761fd8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "石油冲击下的美联储：Warsh 的抗通胀防线撞上 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC", "summary": "石油冲击下的美联储：Warsh 的抗通胀防线撞上 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a03cb191f369/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "限制性 Warsh 机制下的跨资产重定位：股票久期、债券久期、黄金与美元", "summary": "限制性 Warsh 机制下的跨资产重定位：股票久期、债券久期、黄金与美元", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-034ffc3e9428/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-fe66302bd9", "title": "美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fe66302bd9/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "油价—美联储三情景下的跨资产配置：久期、美元、能源、通胀盈亏平衡与权益", "summary": "研究记录日期：2026-07-27，亚洲/新加坡时区。；research note；立场： 综合（synthesize）。作者：首席策略师。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0f1b5636d0ed/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险...", "summary": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险预算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7d3d1f79dac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "强美元、高美债利率与油价冲击下的A股风格轮动", "summary": "研究记录日期：2026-07-27，Asia/Singapore。；research note；立场： 综合（synthesize）。作者：首席策略师。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eef34be1ed15/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "用离岸流动性验证 USD/CNY 6.85 红线：CNH-CNY 基差、远期点与亚洲货币联动", "summary": "用离岸流动性验证 USD/CNY 6.85 红线：CNH-CNY 基差、远期点与亚洲货币联动", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c03496350e7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4ad776c10c", "title": "地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4ad776c10c/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 3, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "把电力这根第二根供给侧通胀支柱纳入9月FOMC反应函数与终端利率路径的赋权", "summary": "把电力这根第二根供给侧通胀支柱纳入9月FOMC反应函数与终端利率路径的赋权", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5318a23d49ae/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "AI 电力/天然气成本向美国通胀与美联储路径的传导 — 2026-07-27", "summary": "AI 电力/天然气成本向美国通胀与美联储路径的传导 — 2026-07-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-670873aba32d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 — 把 AI 电力通胀跨资产规则映射到 A 股行业与风格配置", "summary": "2026-07-27 — 把 AI 电力通胀跨资产规则映射到 A 股行业与风格配置", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1fcec475e5ff/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "强美元、高美债利率与油价冲击下的A股风格轮动", "summary": "研究记录日期：2026-07-27，Asia/Singapore。；research note；立场： 综合（synthesize）。作者：首席策略师。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eef34be1ed15/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2aa156c4c9", "title": "2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2aa156c4c9/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 2, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27 USD/CNY 7.10 压力下能源红利板块的现金流稳定性与估值边际", "summary": "2026-07-27 USD/CNY 7.10 压力下能源红利板块的现金流稳定性与估值边际", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-45487d339432/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "Fed–PBOC 政策分化与美元路径：把 USD/CNY 从 6.77 推向 6.85 红线需要什么，概率几何", "summary": "Fed–PBOC 政策分化与美元路径：把 USD/CNY 从 6.77 推向 6.85 红线需要什么，概率几何", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8ae23cddb767/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 美元 overlay 的 USD/CNY 成本与在岸传导", "summary": "2026-07-27 美元 overlay 的 USD/CNY 成本与在岸传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a13b1b744ac8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 A 股外汇对冲落地：USD/CNY 6.88-7.10 压力带下的行业切换", "summary": "2026-07-27 A 股外汇对冲落地：USD/CNY 6.88-7.10 压力带下的行业切换", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cc46b6735723/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-77134b90a1", "title": "2026年7月拐点：7月24日Section 122关税悬崖与2026年伊朗战争能源冲击消退相撞，如何把美联储钉在“更高更久”", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年7月拐点：7月24日Section 122关税悬崖与2026年伊朗战争能源冲击消退相撞，如何把美联储钉在“更高更久”", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-77134b90a1/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 2, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "石油冲击下的美联储：Warsh 的抗通胀防线撞上 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC", "summary": "石油冲击下的美联储：Warsh 的抗通胀防线撞上 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a03cb191f369/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "油价—美联储三情景下的跨资产配置：久期、美元、能源、通胀盈亏平衡与权益", "summary": "研究记录日期：2026-07-27，亚洲/新加坡时区。；research note；立场： 综合（synthesize）。作者：首席策略师。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0f1b5636d0ed/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "限制性 Warsh 机制下的跨资产重定位：股票久期、债券久期、黄金与美元", "summary": "限制性 Warsh 机制下的跨资产重定位：股票久期、债券久期、黄金与美元", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-034ffc3e9428/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "Warsh 主政下的 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC：市场正在低估的\"加息\"尾部风险", "summary": "Warsh 主政下的 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC：市场正在低估的\"加息\"尾部风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3e1d4b3abd65/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ace402c8b6", "title": "科创板极端护盘对A股整体流动性的虹吸效应与跨板块资产配置调整 研究日期： 2026 05 22 作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Str…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创板极端护盘对A股整体流动性的虹吸效应与跨板块资产配置调整 研究日期： 2026 05 22 作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Str…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ace402c8b6/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27 首席策略师综合：7月30/31日数据窗口后的A股市场结构验证", "summary": "2026-07-27 首席策略师综合：7月30/31日数据窗口后的A股市场结构验证", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-306be699a4e2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 首席策略师综合：FOMC、PCE、ECI 前的 A股风格轮动打法", "summary": "2026-07-27 首席策略师综合：FOMC、PCE、ECI 前的 A股风格轮动打法", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3b0071cf735b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 - A股两融去杠杆启动后的跨资产风险预算", "summary": "分析师: chief-strategist（首席策略师） · 承接 chief-strategist（既有研究记录） 研究记录 工作日期: 2026-07-27（Asia/Singapore）[自测算] · 立场: synthesize 工作区说明: 实盘...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-68d9c082339c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 — 不放大汇率压力的A股两融去杠杆阻断政策组合", "summary": "分析师: global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 承接 chief-strategist（既有研究记录）；议题落在 china-macro 领域，但以\"汇率约束\"为核心视角，由 global-macro 承接最贴切 研究记录 工...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c041e11ce2c9/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "P", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-6fd1b8808d", "title": "资金成本上行与长端利率有锚下的A股风格轮动和金融板块配置", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 资金成本上行与长端利率有锚下的A股风格轮动和金融板块配置", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6fd1b8808d/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 3, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27 跨资产压力测试：A股红利 vs 中国利率债 vs 黄金/港股", "summary": "2026-07-27 跨资产压力测试：A股红利 vs 中国利率债 vs 黄金/港股", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b99b90ab003b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 银行锚定的红利压力测试：被迫降LPR会否击穿中证红利核心？[D0]", "summary": "2026-07-27 银行锚定的红利压力测试：被迫降LPR会否击穿中证红利核心？[D0]", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-26b3466d7c09/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-28 策略研究记录：剔除银行红利+煤炭+中国海油偏上游组合权重", "summary": "2026-07-28 策略研究记录：剔除银行红利+煤炭+中国海油偏上游组合权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-73fcba7ae868/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "国内利率封顶成功与失败两种情景下的A股风格再配置 — 工作日期 2026-07-27", "summary": "国内利率封顶成功与失败两种情景下的A股风格再配置 — 工作日期 2026-07-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8372409aaff9/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601088.SH", "601398.SH", "600941.SH", "510880.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a7f43e67af", "title": "在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a7f43e67af/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "石油冲击下的美联储：Warsh 的抗通胀防线撞上 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC", "summary": "石油冲击下的美联储：Warsh 的抗通胀防线撞上 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a03cb191f369/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "将Brent供给情景映射到美国CPI、通胀预期与9月FOMC反应函数（工作日期：2026-07-27）", "summary": "将Brent供给情景映射到美国CPI、通胀预期与9月FOMC反应函数（工作日期：2026-07-27）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-95ba343524fc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "霍尔木兹石油冲击撞上七月FOMC：美联储的滞胀大考", "summary": "分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师） · 研究研究记录 研究院工作日： 2026-07-27（亚洲/新加坡） · 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-01f0ed88c841/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "霍尔木兹石油冲击与美联储反应函数：通往 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC 的滞胀交叉流", "summary": "霍尔木兹石油冲击与美联储反应函数：通往 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC 的滞胀交叉流", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2df3ce8a357f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-94e0c46a69", "title": "USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-94e0c46a69/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 2, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27 美元 overlay 的 USD/CNY 成本与在岸传导", "summary": "2026-07-27 美元 overlay 的 USD/CNY 成本与在岸传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a13b1b744ac8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-29 前序研究 —— USD/CNH 6.90/7.20看涨价差在人民币敏感组合中的名义规模与资产覆盖", "summary": "2026-07-29 前序研究 —— USD/CNH 6.90/7.20看涨价差在人民币敏感组合中的名义规模与资产覆盖", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e5d7114c9dd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "Fed–PBOC 政策分化与美元路径：把 USD/CNY 从 6.77 推向 6.85 红线需要什么，概率几何", "summary": "Fed–PBOC 政策分化与美元路径：把 USD/CNY 从 6.77 推向 6.85 红线需要什么，概率几何", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8ae23cddb767/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "用离岸流动性验证 USD/CNY 6.85 红线：CNH-CNY 基差、远期点与亚洲货币联动", "summary": "用离岸流动性验证 USD/CNY 6.85 红线：CNH-CNY 基差、远期点与亚洲货币联动", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c03496350e7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9cd2a72630", "title": "在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9cd2a72630/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "油价—美联储三情景下的跨资产配置：久期、美元、能源、通胀盈亏平衡与权益", "summary": "研究记录日期：2026-07-27，亚洲/新加坡时区。；research note；立场： 综合（synthesize）。作者：首席策略师。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0f1b5636d0ed/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "石油冲击下的美联储：Warsh 的抗通胀防线撞上 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC", "summary": "石油冲击下的美联储：Warsh 的抗通胀防线撞上 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a03cb191f369/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "限制性 Warsh 机制下的跨资产重定位：股票久期、债券久期、黄金与美元", "summary": "限制性 Warsh 机制下的跨资产重定位：股票久期、债券久期、黄金与美元", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-034ffc3e9428/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 全球宏观：油价冲击后的美联储决议周", "summary": "选定分析师： global-macro 选定任务： central bank watch 研究问题：2026年7月28-29日FOMC会议应被视为真实加息风险，还是“按兵不动但偏鹰”的事件？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3c0fcdad0b61/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "JPM", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b976d8330e", "title": "NAND盈利弹性由价格与产品结构主导，而非单纯出货增长", "titleEn": "NAND earnings leverage is driven by pricing and mix rather than shipment growth alone", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b976d8330e/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 4, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "TMT 周度研究报告 · 研究计划（Planner 阶段）", "summary": "本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-27 (周一) → 2026-07-31 (周五)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e2eedd9f1219/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "美国市场周度研究计划", "summary": "本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-27 (周一) → 2026-07-31 (周五)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9858adac8316/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "因子周报研究计划", "summary": "本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-27 (周一) → 2026-07-31 (周五)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b7472dc47c57/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "因子周报研究稿", "summary": "覆盖窗口： 2026-07-27 至 2026-07-31。机器日期锚点： 系统日期锚 = 2026-08-02。引用的“本周”均指该已完成交易周；收益用 2026-07-24 收盘到 2026-07-31 收盘计算。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1bbe23fd5270/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "META", "MU", "000660.KS", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ffa474a3f2", "title": "端侧 AI 与 Agent 桌面正在把算力竞争从云端扩展到芯片、OS 与消费电子供应链", "titleEn": "Edge AI and agent desktops are extending compute competition from cloud to chips, OS, and consumer-electronics supply...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ffa474a3f2/", "laneId": "lane_74d352e86208", "lane": "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/edge-ai-and-agent-desktop-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 1, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "TMT 周度研究报告 · 研究计划（Planner 阶段）", "summary": "本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-27 (周一) → 2026-07-31 (周五)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e2eedd9f1219/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI 融资压力的跨资产表达，2026-07-27", "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-27（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场：综合（synthesize）· 分析师：大类资产配置师", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b892eca3a40b/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "TMT 周报研究包 · QA 审核（QA 阶段）", "summary": "审核对象：01 weekly plan（Planner）+ 02 weekly research（Research），覆盖窗口 2026-07-27 → 07-31", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-156c8ce0e1e5/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "美国股票/宏观周报研究报告", "summary": "美国股票/宏观周报研究报告 §0 YAML Header report_id: us_equity_macro_weekly_2026-07-27_2026-07-31 version: 1.0.1 supersedes: us_equity_macro_weekly_2026-07-27_202…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-03cb2bbbd5ba/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" } ], "stockTickers": [ "MSFT", "NVDA", "META", "AAPL", "AMZN", "AMD", "ARM", "QCOM", "GOOGL", "002475.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-612f83a611", "title": "地缘原油冲击导致的通胀传导（推升核心PCE至4.16%）将促使无前瞻指引的沃什美联储通过在9月和年底连续加息两次（至4.00%–4.25…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘原油冲击导致的通胀传导（推升核心PCE至4.16%）将促使无前瞻指引的沃什美联储通过在9月和年底连续加息两次（至4.00%–4.25…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-612f83a611/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 2, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "油价—美联储三情景下的跨资产配置：久期、美元、能源、通胀盈亏平衡与权益", "summary": "研究记录日期：2026-07-27，亚洲/新加坡时区。；research note；立场： 综合（synthesize）。作者：首席策略师。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0f1b5636d0ed/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "石油冲击下的美联储：Warsh 的抗通胀防线撞上 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC", "summary": "石油冲击下的美联储：Warsh 的抗通胀防线撞上 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a03cb191f369/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "把电力这根第二根供给侧通胀支柱纳入9月FOMC反应函数与终端利率路径的赋权", "summary": "把电力这根第二根供给侧通胀支柱纳入9月FOMC反应函数与终端利率路径的赋权", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5318a23d49ae/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "将Brent供给情景映射到美国CPI、通胀预期与9月FOMC反应函数（工作日期：2026-07-27）", "summary": "将Brent供给情景映射到美国CPI、通胀预期与9月FOMC反应函数（工作日期：2026-07-27）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-95ba343524fc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bc1d8e9af8", "title": "Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bc1d8e9af8/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 2, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "石油冲击下的美联储：Warsh 的抗通胀防线撞上 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC", "summary": "石油冲击下的美联储：Warsh 的抗通胀防线撞上 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a03cb191f369/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "油价—美联储三情景下的跨资产配置：久期、美元、能源、通胀盈亏平衡与权益", "summary": "研究记录日期：2026-07-27，亚洲/新加坡时区。；research note；立场： 综合（synthesize）。作者：首席策略师。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0f1b5636d0ed/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "限制性 Warsh 机制下的跨资产重定位：股票久期、债券久期、黄金与美元", "summary": "限制性 Warsh 机制下的跨资产重定位：股票久期、债券久期、黄金与美元", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-034ffc3e9428/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "Warsh 主政下的 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC：市场正在低估的\"加息\"尾部风险", "summary": "Warsh 主政下的 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC：市场正在低估的\"加息\"尾部风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3e1d4b3abd65/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3cb5657bb3", "title": "智能驾驶供应商拐点取决于定点转量产和毛利率修复", "titleEn": "The smart-driving supplier inflection depends on program conversion and margin recovery", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cb5657bb3/", "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da", "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 3, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "AI去风险归因 — 工作日 2026-07-27", "summary": "以 2026-07-27 为本报告工作日，同一张归因表显示：AI 去风险的一阶主因是盈利与资本开支可信度冲击，利率重估和成长基金资金流压力是放大器而不是原点。MAGS 7D 收益为 -5.62% [S1]，QQQ 7D 收...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-02b56ddd8d79/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "主题研究员午间同步简报 — 2026-07-27", "summary": "日期锚定：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-27；本文所有“今日 / 昨日 / 上周 / 上一交易日 / 下午”均以该日期解析。 - 连续性审计：近日报告与今日结论没有材料性矛盾。需要明确的细...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2cdcc82571bb/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "新兴主题投资雷达（Theme Radar）", "summary": "编制人：主题研究员（Thematic Researcher） 日期：2026-07-27（数据窗口截至该日） 覆盖主题：AI / 量子计算 / 生物科技 / 太空经济 / 低空经济", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-45c430cf1be5/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "盘前跨分析师脉冲扫描", "summary": "日期锚定： 2026-07-27 （来自 系统日期锚 ）。本报告仅使用 recent reports.md 中 2026-07-27 近 6 小时归档的 25 份分析师摘录；未引用文件外的“其他分析师”观点。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cc3c0090b335/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSLA", "NVDA", "GOOGL", "1274.HK", "002594.SZ", "XPEV" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4b3b37e207", "title": "散户情绪与北向资金背离是 A 股风险偏好的关键温度计", "titleEn": "Retail sentiment versus northbound flow divergence is the key A-share risk thermometer", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b3b37e207/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 1, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "A股情绪与资金流快照", "summary": "基准日：2026-07-29 [来源：system date 2026-07-29]；上一交易日：2026-07-28 [来源：搜狐涨跌停历史数据 2026-07-29]。站立记忆约束：今日结论不把单日反弹或ETF承接直接升级为趋势反转，必须...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2b755994f862/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股袖套加回矩阵的市场微观结构检验", "summary": "research discussion [source-id-redacted] 作者角色：首席策略师（A股策略、风格轮动、行业配置） 立场：stress-test 机构工作日：2026-07-27（Asia/Singapore；shell 已确认...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8d32e27d0d3c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "政策底无法预先封堵的唯一通道：07-29/30 美股事件 → 离岸 CNH → 北向 → A股开盘跳空", "summary": "政策底无法预先封堵的唯一通道：07-29/30 美股事件 → 离岸 CNH → 北向 → A股开盘跳空", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-afbab62f0a56/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "首席策略师 — A股能否吸收下一轮政策消息缺口？ETF／两融／解禁三重供给约束压力测试", "summary": "首席策略师 — A股能否吸收下一轮政策消息缺口？ETF／两融／解禁三重供给约束压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-35b100b1414d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "300308.SZ", "300750.SZ", "600519.SH", "159915.SZ", "510300.SH", "688256.SH", "600900.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-075017003b", "title": "AI 资本开支通过能源、设备和利率进入通胀定价", "titleEn": "AI capex enters inflation pricing through energy, equipment, and rates", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-075017003b/", "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08", "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 55, "supports": 3, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "AI数据中心负荷、油价冲击与美国电价/容量成本传导", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 公用事业分析师 · 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） 工作日期： 2026-07-27（亚洲/新加坡）· 根主题： 霍尔木兹石油供给冲击如何迫使美联储从\"观望式按兵不动\"转向真实的...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4050094ac25e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "首席风控官周报研究计划", "summary": "本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-27 (周一) → 2026-07-31 (周五)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ddafcb55514d/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-27 (周一) → 2026-07-31 (周五)", "summary": "本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-27 (周一) → 2026-07-31 (周五)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fba55312c952/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "首席风控官周度研究报告", "summary": "覆盖区间：2026-07-27 至 2026-07-31；比较基准：2026-07-24 收盘；日期锚点：系统日期锚 = 2026-08-02。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-89128cfb97d1/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "XLE", "TLT", "XLU", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-485a630a87", "title": "自动驾驶与 Robotaxi 主题必须从演示热度进入单位经济和监管城市扩张验证", "titleEn": "Autonomous driving and robotaxi themes must move from demo excitement to unit economics and regulated city expansion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-485a630a87/", "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da", "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 51, "supports": 3, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "新兴主题投资雷达（Theme Radar）", "summary": "编制人：主题研究员（Thematic Researcher） 日期：2026-07-27（数据窗口截至该日） 覆盖主题：AI / 量子计算 / 生物科技 / 太空经济 / 低空经济", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-45c430cf1be5/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "主题研究员午间同步简报 — 2026-07-27", "summary": "日期锚定：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-27；本文所有“今日 / 昨日 / 上周 / 上一交易日 / 下午”均以该日期解析。 - 连续性审计：近日报告与今日结论没有材料性矛盾。需要明确的细...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2cdcc82571bb/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "盘前跨分析师脉冲扫描", "summary": "日期锚定： 2026-07-27 （来自 系统日期锚 ）。本报告仅使用 recent reports.md 中 2026-07-27 近 6 小时归档的 25 份分析师摘录；未引用文件外的“其他分析师”观点。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cc3c0090b335/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "AI去风险归因 — 工作日 2026-07-27", "summary": "以 2026-07-27 为本报告工作日，同一张归因表显示：AI 去风险的一阶主因是盈利与资本开支可信度冲击，利率重估和成长基金资金流压力是放大器而不是原点。MAGS 7D 收益为 -5.62% [S1]，QQQ 7D 收...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-02b56ddd8d79/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GOOGL", "TSLA", "NVDA", "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "BIDU", "XPEV", "002594.SZ", "2015.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4b64fc19f4", "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b64fc19f4/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险...", "summary": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险预算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7d3d1f79dac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "USD/JPY 平仓路径与人民币外溢：干预、利差与套息回补的汇率传导", "summary": "研究记录 · 研究记录 · 分析师 fx-strategist （外汇策略师）· 工作日期 2026-07-27（Asia/Singapore）· 立场 stress-test（压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7551fff8c71c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "套息平仓情景下的跨资产配置与对冲：Beta 预算、USD/JPY 凸性对冲与防御再平衡", "summary": "套息平仓情景下的跨资产配置与对冲：Beta 预算、USD/JPY 凸性对冲与防御再平衡", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-31c3c6babc5f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-80c15f4a7d", "title": "再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-80c15f4a7d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险...", "summary": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险预算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7d3d1f79dac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "USD/JPY 平仓路径与人民币外溢：干预、利差与套息回补的汇率传导", "summary": "研究记录 · 研究记录 · 分析师 fx-strategist （外汇策略师）· 工作日期 2026-07-27（Asia/Singapore）· 立场 stress-test（压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7551fff8c71c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "套息平仓情景下的跨资产配置与对冲：Beta 预算、USD/JPY 凸性对冲与防御再平衡", "summary": "套息平仓情景下的跨资产配置与对冲：Beta 预算、USD/JPY 凸性对冲与防御再平衡", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-31c3c6babc5f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a4bf9a5c22", "title": "在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a4bf9a5c22/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27 A股两融再入场规则：把机械2.86万亿触发线重校为“企稳+承接”组合闸门", "summary": "2026-07-27 A股两融再入场规则：把机械2.86万亿触发线重校为“企稳+承接”组合闸门", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-357035f26b3c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "首席策略师 — A股能否吸收下一轮政策消息缺口？ETF／两融／解禁三重供给约束压力测试", "summary": "首席策略师 — A股能否吸收下一轮政策消息缺口？ETF／两融／解禁三重供给约束压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-35b100b1414d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "科创板半导体解禁洪峰 × 两融集中：名字级强制抛售级联的量化", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 半导体分析师 · 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） 工作日期： 2026-07-27（Asia/Singapore） · 本会话根主题： 信用利差仍窄是否低估了油价和收益率冲击？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4b0814ef5da8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688012.SH", "688041.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f0b8d44918", "title": "美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f0b8d44918/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 2, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27 美元 overlay 的 USD/CNY 成本与在岸传导", "summary": "2026-07-27 美元 overlay 的 USD/CNY 成本与在岸传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a13b1b744ac8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 USD/CNY 7.10 压力下能源红利板块的现金流稳定性与估值边际", "summary": "2026-07-27 USD/CNY 7.10 压力下能源红利板块的现金流稳定性与估值边际", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-45487d339432/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 A 股外汇对冲落地：USD/CNY 6.88-7.10 压力带下的行业切换", "summary": "2026-07-27 A 股外汇对冲落地：USD/CNY 6.88-7.10 压力带下的行业切换", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cc46b6735723/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a3440bf2a4", "title": "中东停火信号下的油价风险应如何重定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中东停火信号下的油价风险应如何重定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a3440bf2a4/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "油价路径、霍尔木兹海峡风险与美联储约束", "summary": "本报告日期：2026-07-27，Asia/Singapore。 本报告对 既有研究记录的判断做 stress-test：7月28-29日FOMC大概率按兵不动，但在油价驱动通胀冲击下偏鹰 [S1]。我的结论是：我支持“短期...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0595b480eb78/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "美联储的供给冲击困局：7月29日\"按兵不动\"背后，反应函数已被油价挟持", "summary": "研究记录 01 · 首席经济学家（ chief-economist ）· 工作日期：2026-07-27（Asia/Singapore） 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90dac4761fd8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "将Brent供给情景映射到美国CPI、通胀预期与9月FOMC反应函数（工作日期：2026-07-27）", "summary": "将Brent供给情景映射到美国CPI、通胀预期与9月FOMC反应函数（工作日期：2026-07-27）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-95ba343524fc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e58a9e8746", "title": "日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e58a9e8746/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险...", "summary": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险预算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7d3d1f79dac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "套息平仓情景下的跨资产配置与对冲：Beta 预算、USD/JPY 凸性对冲与防御再平衡", "summary": "套息平仓情景下的跨资产配置与对冲：Beta 预算、USD/JPY 凸性对冲与防御再平衡", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-31c3c6babc5f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "USD/JPY 平仓路径与人民币外溢：干预、利差与套息回补的汇率传导", "summary": "研究记录 · 研究记录 · 分析师 fx-strategist （外汇策略师）· 工作日期 2026-07-27（Asia/Singapore）· 立场 stress-test（压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7551fff8c71c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-03dab97a77", "title": "人民币稳定使当前应保留滞胀杠铃，但用黄金、久期与轻USD对冲把组合从单一A股Beta改造成可按黄/红档汇率阶梯再平衡的跨资产防御组合。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币稳定使当前应保留滞胀杠铃，但用黄金、久期与轻USD对冲把组合从单一A股Beta改造成可按黄/红档汇率阶梯再平衡的跨资产防御组合。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-03dab97a77/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-29 前序研究 —— USD/CNH 6.90/7.20看涨价差在人民币敏感组合中的名义规模与资产覆盖", "summary": "2026-07-29 前序研究 —— USD/CNH 6.90/7.20看涨价差在人民币敏感组合中的名义规模与资产覆盖", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e5d7114c9dd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "用离岸流动性验证 USD/CNY 6.85 红线：CNH-CNY 基差、远期点与亚洲货币联动", "summary": "用离岸流动性验证 USD/CNY 6.85 红线：CNH-CNY 基差、远期点与亚洲货币联动", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c03496350e7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险...", "summary": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险预算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7d3d1f79dac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-eefbf1a467", "title": "中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-eefbf1a467/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27 美元 overlay 的 USD/CNY 成本与在岸传导", "summary": "2026-07-27 美元 overlay 的 USD/CNY 成本与在岸传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a13b1b744ac8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "Fed–PBOC 政策分化与美元路径：把 USD/CNY 从 6.77 推向 6.85 红线需要什么，概率几何", "summary": "Fed–PBOC 政策分化与美元路径：把 USD/CNY 从 6.77 推向 6.85 红线需要什么，概率几何", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8ae23cddb767/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "强美元、高美债利率与油价冲击下的A股风格轮动", "summary": "研究记录日期：2026-07-27，Asia/Singapore。；research note；立场： 综合（synthesize）。作者：首席策略师。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eef34be1ed15/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-27c1e713e6", "title": "日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-27c1e713e6/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "套息平仓情景下的跨资产配置与对冲：Beta 预算、USD/JPY 凸性对冲与防御再平衡", "summary": "套息平仓情景下的跨资产配置与对冲：Beta 预算、USD/JPY 凸性对冲与防御再平衡", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-31c3c6babc5f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "USD/JPY 平仓路径与人民币外溢：干预、利差与套息回补的汇率传导", "summary": "研究记录 · 研究记录 · 分析师 fx-strategist （外汇策略师）· 工作日期 2026-07-27（Asia/Singapore）· 立场 stress-test（压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7551fff8c71c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险...", "summary": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险预算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7d3d1f79dac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-979591277f", "title": "能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-979591277f/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "Fed–PBOC 政策分化与美元路径：把 USD/CNY 从 6.77 推向 6.85 红线需要什么，概率几何", "summary": "Fed–PBOC 政策分化与美元路径：把 USD/CNY 从 6.77 推向 6.85 红线需要什么，概率几何", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8ae23cddb767/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 美元 overlay 的 USD/CNY 成本与在岸传导", "summary": "2026-07-27 美元 overlay 的 USD/CNY 成本与在岸传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a13b1b744ac8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "USD/JPY 平仓路径与人民币外溢：干预、利差与套息回补的汇率传导", "summary": "研究记录 · 研究记录 · 分析师 fx-strategist （外汇策略师）· 工作日期 2026-07-27（Asia/Singapore）· 立场 stress-test（压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7551fff8c71c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-250964b5dc", "title": "强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-250964b5dc/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险...", "summary": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险预算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7d3d1f79dac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-29 前序研究 —— USD/CNH 6.90/7.20看涨价差在人民币敏感组合中的名义规模与资产覆盖", "summary": "2026-07-29 前序研究 —— USD/CNH 6.90/7.20看涨价差在人民币敏感组合中的名义规模与资产覆盖", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e5d7114c9dd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "USD/JPY 平仓路径与人民币外溢：干预、利差与套息回补的汇率传导", "summary": "研究记录 · 研究记录 · 分析师 fx-strategist （外汇策略师）· 工作日期 2026-07-27（Asia/Singapore）· 立场 stress-test（压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7551fff8c71c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-da665e3ee7", "title": "在2026-06-26，中国约1.73%的国债收益率托底机制在Warsh强美元政策与三季度2-5万亿地方债/国债供给冲击下不可持续，国债…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-26，中国约1.73%的国债收益率托底机制在Warsh强美元政策与三季度2-5万亿地方债/国债供给冲击下不可持续，国债…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-da665e3ee7/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-29 前序研究 —— USD/CNH 6.90/7.20看涨价差在人民币敏感组合中的名义规模与资产覆盖", "summary": "2026-07-29 前序研究 —— USD/CNH 6.90/7.20看涨价差在人民币敏感组合中的名义规模与资产覆盖", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e5d7114c9dd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "USD/CNH 对冲腿的执行成本与触发纪律（工作日期：2026-07-27 [S0]）", "summary": "USD/CNH 对冲腿的执行成本与触发纪律（工作日期：2026-07-27 [S0]）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3a7a87bbcb4c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 全球宏观：美国10年期是否会触发 USD/CNH 6.90 破位阈值？", "summary": "2026-07-27 全球宏观：美国10年期是否会触发 USD/CNH 6.90 破位阈值？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7d0ec2fa6bd/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2a12467f9b", "title": "卫星电源壁垒需由发射节奏和单星价值量持续验证", "titleEn": "Satellite-power barriers require continued validation through launch cadence and content per spacecraft", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2a12467f9b/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "商业航天制造链订单、验收与回款跟踪", "summary": "研究记录 · 作者角色： 工业制造分析师（先进制造、国防、机械、航空航天） 工作日期： 2026-07-27（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： 压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-adba1eae151b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 最终组合结论：商业航天低流通盘主题作为规则化战术仓", "summary": "2026-07-27 最终组合结论：商业航天低流通盘主题作为规则化战术仓", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b3561ff4b687/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 宏观流动性压力测试：A股总量资金能否承接商业航天小流通盘Beta？", "summary": "2026-07-27 宏观流动性压力测试：A股总量资金能否承接商业航天小流通盘Beta？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-df04d7421dbd/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "600118.SH", "IRDM", "RDW", "LUNR", "LMT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-89c14497ac", "title": "期权伽马、ETF 与尾盘流动性正在放大主题交易的微观结构风险", "titleEn": "Options gamma, ETFs, and closing liquidity are amplifying microstructure risk in theme trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-89c14497ac/", "laneId": "lane_2ba2ee6db1ee", "lane": "期权伽马/市场微观结构", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/options-gamma-and-market-microstructure/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27 压力测试：科创50ETF期权 1.75 与 1.70 的 Gamma 墙", "summary": "2026-07-27 压力测试：科创50ETF期权 1.75 与 1.70 的 Gamma 墙", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-74168c3a53a0/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 全球宏观综合：用 IF/IC/IM 股指期货与 ETF 期权执行 A股 beta 中性风格轮动", "summary": "2026-07-27 全球宏观综合：用 IF/IC/IM 股指期货与 ETF 期权执行 A股 beta 中性风格轮动", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-727bba1e397f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "融资偿还、ETF赎回、市场宽度与科创板跌停扩散，能否补上期权通道无法提供的主体卖压？", "summary": "融资偿还、ETF赎回、市场宽度与科创板跌停扩散，能否补上期权通道无法提供的主体卖压？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f949b0f3949c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CBOE", "CME", "HOOD", "IBKR", "VIRT", "VIXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-21dd72c1b1", "title": "航空航天与国防供应链错配正在形成政策驱动的制造业弹性", "titleEn": "Aerospace and defense supply-chain mismatch is creating policy-driven manufacturing beta", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-21dd72c1b1/", "laneId": "lane_1514a60f727a", "lane": "国防航空航天供应链", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/defense-and-aerospace-supply-chain/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 55, "supports": 3, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "工业制造行业周报 · 研究计划（Research Plan）", "summary": "分析师岗位 / Desk： 工业制造分析师（先进制造、国防、机械、航空航天） 本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window：2026-07-27（周一）→ 2026-07-31（周五） 计划撰写日 / Plan date： 2026-08-02（周...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8ec6b8a61866/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "工业制造午间碰头会简报（2026-07-27）", "summary": "日期锚点：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-27。文中“今日 / 昨天 / 上一交易日 / this week / 上周”均按此日期解析。 本次未新增 web search；上午判断由 my recent reports.md 、 my dis...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-01a034383584/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "盘中分析师对齐扫描 — 日报总编视角（2026-07-27）", "summary": "日期锚点：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-27 （周一）。文中“今日 / 上一交易日 / 上周 / 盘中 / 午前”均以此解析。 - 盘中口径的诚实说明：今天是周一，但截至本次午间扫描，各分...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5c712e46cc7a/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "LMT", "RTX", "NOC", "RKLB", "BA", "CAT", "IRDM", "ASTS", "HWM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-59f298ff36", "title": "在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-59f298ff36/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 84, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "首席策略师 — A股能否吸收下一轮政策消息缺口？ETF／两融／解禁三重供给约束压力测试", "summary": "首席策略师 — A股能否吸收下一轮政策消息缺口？ETF／两融／解禁三重供给约束压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-35b100b1414d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 全球宏观综合：用 IF/IC/IM 股指期货与 ETF 期权执行 A股 beta 中性风格轮动", "summary": "2026-07-27 全球宏观综合：用 IF/IC/IM 股指期货与 ETF 期权执行 A股 beta 中性风格轮动", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-727bba1e397f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bb46b0c3de", "title": "USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bb46b0c3de/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险...", "summary": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险预算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7d3d1f79dac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "USD/JPY 平仓路径与人民币外溢：干预、利差与套息回补的汇率传导", "summary": "研究记录 · 研究记录 · 分析师 fx-strategist （外汇策略师）· 工作日期 2026-07-27（Asia/Singapore）· 立场 stress-test（压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7551fff8c71c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4f541b33ff", "title": "美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f541b33ff/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "USD/JPY 平仓路径与人民币外溢：干预、利差与套息回补的汇率传导", "summary": "研究记录 · 研究记录 · 分析师 fx-strategist （外汇策略师）· 工作日期 2026-07-27（Asia/Singapore）· 立场 stress-test（压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7551fff8c71c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险...", "summary": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险预算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7d3d1f79dac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e4e956cd41", "title": "通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e4e956cd41/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "USD/JPY 平仓路径与人民币外溢：干预、利差与套息回补的汇率传导", "summary": "研究记录 · 研究记录 · 分析师 fx-strategist （外汇策略师）· 工作日期 2026-07-27（Asia/Singapore）· 立场 stress-test（压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7551fff8c71c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险...", "summary": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险预算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7d3d1f79dac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-950a54ea98", "title": "保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-950a54ea98/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险...", "summary": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险预算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7d3d1f79dac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "USD/JPY 平仓路径与人民币外溢：干预、利差与套息回补的汇率传导", "summary": "研究记录 · 研究记录 · 分析师 fx-strategist （外汇策略师）· 工作日期 2026-07-27（Asia/Singapore）· 立场 stress-test（压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7551fff8c71c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0e8748c14f", "title": "科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e8748c14f/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "科创板半导体解禁洪峰 × 两融集中：名字级强制抛售级联的量化", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 半导体分析师 · 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） 工作日期： 2026-07-27（Asia/Singapore） · 本会话根主题： 信用利差仍窄是否低估了油价和收益率冲击？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4b0814ef5da8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "首席策略师 — A股能否吸收下一轮政策消息缺口？ETF／两融／解禁三重供给约束压力测试", "summary": "首席策略师 — A股能否吸收下一轮政策消息缺口？ETF／两融／解禁三重供给约束压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-35b100b1414d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH", "688012.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-24cd0b5ff9", "title": "在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-24cd0b5ff9/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI capex 复合体：把\"出资方\"与\"收款方\"分开定价，并据此重排全所仓位图", "summary": "AI capex 复合体：把\"出资方\"与\"收款方\"分开定价，并据此重排全所仓位图", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-712195d355e7/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "盘前主题结构扫描：AI CapEx 恐慌是否切换为“供给链受益者”交易？", "summary": "盘前主题结构扫描：AI CapEx 恐慌是否切换为“供给链受益者”交易？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a0f85948db44/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "GOOGL", "AMZN", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5c45703323", "title": "AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5c45703323/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI capex 复合体：把\"出资方\"与\"收款方\"分开定价，并据此重排全所仓位图", "summary": "AI capex 复合体：把\"出资方\"与\"收款方\"分开定价，并据此重排全所仓位图", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-712195d355e7/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "盘前主题结构扫描：AI CapEx 恐慌是否切换为“供给链受益者”交易？", "summary": "盘前主题结构扫描：AI CapEx 恐慌是否切换为“供给链受益者”交易？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a0f85948db44/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "NVDA", "AMD", "MU", "AVGO", "TSM", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3cafa5bcd5", "title": "在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cafa5bcd5/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "USD/JPY 平仓路径与人民币外溢：干预、利差与套息回补的汇率传导", "summary": "研究记录 · 研究记录 · 分析师 fx-strategist （外汇策略师）· 工作日期 2026-07-27（Asia/Singapore）· 立场 stress-test（压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7551fff8c71c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-29 前序研究 —— USD/CNH 6.90/7.20看涨价差在人民币敏感组合中的名义规模与资产覆盖", "summary": "2026-07-29 前序研究 —— USD/CNH 6.90/7.20看涨价差在人民币敏感组合中的名义规模与资产覆盖", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e5d7114c9dd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5be4c31f4e", "title": "6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5be4c31f4e/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "油价—美联储三情景下的跨资产配置：久期、美元、能源、通胀盈亏平衡与权益", "summary": "研究记录日期：2026-07-27，亚洲/新加坡时区。；research note；立场： 综合（synthesize）。作者：首席策略师。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0f1b5636d0ed/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-27全球宏观压力测试：美元利差与美债熊陡如何传导至CNY", "summary": "2026-07-27全球宏观压力测试：美元利差与美债熊陡如何传导至CNY", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ad8deebcd0c3/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7930de9cdc", "title": "沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7930de9cdc/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27 美元 overlay 的 USD/CNY 成本与在岸传导", "summary": "2026-07-27 美元 overlay 的 USD/CNY 成本与在岸传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a13b1b744ac8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "Fed–PBOC 政策分化与美元路径：把 USD/CNY 从 6.77 推向 6.85 红线需要什么，概率几何", "summary": "Fed–PBOC 政策分化与美元路径：把 USD/CNY 从 6.77 推向 6.85 红线需要什么，概率几何", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8ae23cddb767/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-859ab241bf", "title": "依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-859ab241bf/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "半导体与AI硬件产业链承接力评估：景气度撑得起估值吗？", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 半导体分析师 · 立场： 支持（SUPPORT） 工作日期： 2026-07-27（亚洲/新加坡） · 根主题： 6月CPI降温但PCE通胀仍高背景下的2026年7月28-29日FOMC决策风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-112436624456/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股微结构压力测试：能否对算力/HBM兑现“惩罚融资”去估值？（2026-07-27）", "summary": "A股微结构压力测试：能否对算力/HBM兑现“惩罚融资”去估值？（2026-07-27）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-42b46a1fd5f0/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "ASML", "688012.SH", "000660.KS", "MU", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-97f10202a2", "title": "中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-97f10202a2/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27 美元 overlay 的 USD/CNY 成本与在岸传导", "summary": "2026-07-27 美元 overlay 的 USD/CNY 成本与在岸传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a13b1b744ac8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "Fed–PBOC 政策分化与美元路径：把 USD/CNY 从 6.77 推向 6.85 红线需要什么，概率几何", "summary": "Fed–PBOC 政策分化与美元路径：把 USD/CNY 从 6.77 推向 6.85 红线需要什么，概率几何", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8ae23cddb767/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2ee6c1cf01", "title": "39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2ee6c1cf01/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险...", "summary": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险预算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7d3d1f79dac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-29 前序研究 —— USD/CNH 6.90/7.20看涨价差在人民币敏感组合中的名义规模与资产覆盖", "summary": "2026-07-29 前序研究 —— USD/CNH 6.90/7.20看涨价差在人民币敏感组合中的名义规模与资产覆盖", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e5d7114c9dd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3156277f22", "title": "哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3156277f22/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27 全球宏观：美国10年期是否会触发 USD/CNH 6.90 破位阈值？", "summary": "2026-07-27 全球宏观：美国10年期是否会触发 USD/CNH 6.90 破位阈值？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7d0ec2fa6bd/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-29 前序研究 —— USD/CNH 6.90/7.20看涨价差在人民币敏感组合中的名义规模与资产覆盖", "summary": "2026-07-29 前序研究 —— USD/CNH 6.90/7.20看涨价差在人民币敏感组合中的名义规模与资产覆盖", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e5d7114c9dd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-db003202fc", "title": "国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db003202fc/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-29 前序研究 —— USD/CNH 6.90/7.20看涨价差在人民币敏感组合中的名义规模与资产覆盖", "summary": "2026-07-29 前序研究 —— USD/CNH 6.90/7.20看涨价差在人民币敏感组合中的名义规模与资产覆盖", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e5d7114c9dd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "用离岸流动性验证 USD/CNY 6.85 红线：CNH-CNY 基差、远期点与亚洲货币联动", "summary": "用离岸流动性验证 USD/CNY 6.85 红线：CNH-CNY 基差、远期点与亚洲货币联动", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c03496350e7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-54a65a88ba", "title": "请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-54a65a88ba/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-29 前序研究 —— USD/CNH 6.90/7.20看涨价差在人民币敏感组合中的名义规模与资产覆盖", "summary": "2026-07-29 前序研究 —— USD/CNH 6.90/7.20看涨价差在人民币敏感组合中的名义规模与资产覆盖", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e5d7114c9dd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 — 财政主导组合下 USD/CNH 护栏的可信度与破位阈值", "summary": "2026-07-27 — 财政主导组合下 USD/CNH 护栏的可信度与破位阈值", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1f2843dde343/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "UUP", "FXI", "2800.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-11523cabbd", "title": "熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-11523cabbd/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "用离岸流动性验证 USD/CNY 6.85 红线：CNH-CNY 基差、远期点与亚洲货币联动", "summary": "用离岸流动性验证 USD/CNY 6.85 红线：CNH-CNY 基差、远期点与亚洲货币联动", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c03496350e7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 研究卡：若 USD/CNY 测试 6.88，PBOC 中间价与中国流动性反应", "summary": "2026-07-27 研究卡：若 USD/CNY 测试 6.88，PBOC 中间价与中国流动性反应", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ed43a0062fa1/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f9ce8d294d", "title": "人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f9ce8d294d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "Fed–PBOC 政策分化与美元路径：把 USD/CNY 从 6.77 推向 6.85 红线需要什么，概率几何", "summary": "Fed–PBOC 政策分化与美元路径：把 USD/CNY 从 6.77 推向 6.85 红线需要什么，概率几何", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8ae23cddb767/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "用离岸流动性验证 USD/CNY 6.85 红线：CNH-CNY 基差、远期点与亚洲货币联动", "summary": "用离岸流动性验证 USD/CNY 6.85 红线：CNH-CNY 基差、远期点与亚洲货币联动", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c03496350e7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a72c14c0e", "title": "离岸收紧目前更可能触发局部高拥挤板块去杠杆，而非A股全市场两融踩踏；红利低波守底仓，资源股只做流动性凸性腿。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 离岸收紧目前更可能触发局部高拥挤板块去杠杆，而非A股全市场两融踩踏；红利低波守底仓，资源股只做流动性凸性腿。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a72c14c0e/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27 前序研究：以 USD/CNH 波动率激增情景压力测试 3% 现金缓冲", "summary": "2026-07-27 前序研究：以 USD/CNH 波动率激增情景压力测试 3% 现金缓冲", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-869359c70bed/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "政策底无法预先封堵的唯一通道：07-29/30 美股事件 → 离岸 CNH → 北向 → A股开盘跳空", "summary": "政策底无法预先封堵的唯一通道：07-29/30 美股事件 → 离岸 CNH → 北向 → A股开盘跳空", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-afbab62f0a56/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "9988.HK", "0700.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d0faeae7f0", "title": "NAND价格与产品组合驱动SanDisk盈利弹性", "titleEn": "NAND pricing and mix drive SanDisk earnings leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d0faeae7f0/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 72, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "美国市场周度研究计划", "summary": "本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-27 (周一) → 2026-07-31 (周五)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9858adac8316/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "因子周报研究计划", "summary": "本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-27 (周一) → 2026-07-31 (周五)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b7472dc47c57/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS", "META", "AMD" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d614778e40", "title": "CAR-T商业化取决于进院、支付与订单转化", "titleEn": "CAR-T commercialization depends on hospital access, reimbursement, and order conversion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d614778e40/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "医药行业周报研究计划", "summary": "本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-27 (周一) → 2026-07-31 (周五)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a929ec706c91/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "医药行业午间碰头会简报（2026-07-27）", "summary": "日期锚点：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-27。本文所有“今日 / 昨日 / 本周 / 上周 / 上一交易日”均按 2026-07-27 解析。 - 内部知识库状态： my recent reports.md 、 my disputed clai...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7e10127502f3/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "1801.HK", "600276.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "603259.SH", "1177.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-83a30b141f", "title": "美伊直接交火导致原油暴涨5-6%，布伦特突破79美元逼近80。这是否会引燃二次通胀，推翻债市对美联储‘因分裂而暂停加息’的假设，并在9月…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美伊直接交火导致原油暴涨5-6%，布伦特突破79美元逼近80。这是否会引燃二次通胀，推翻债市对美联储‘因分裂而暂停加息’的假设，并在9月…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-83a30b141f/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "油价—美联储三情景下的跨资产配置：久期、美元、能源、通胀盈亏平衡与权益", "summary": "研究记录日期：2026-07-27，亚洲/新加坡时区。；research note；立场： 综合（synthesize）。作者：首席策略师。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0f1b5636d0ed/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "石油冲击下的美联储：Warsh 的抗通胀防线撞上 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC", "summary": "石油冲击下的美联储：Warsh 的抗通胀防线撞上 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a03cb191f369/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b13b8604a5", "title": "美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13b8604a5/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27 压力测试：联储转鹰且美元/日元破165时，PBOC还能守住人民币锚吗？", "summary": "2026-07-27 压力测试：联储转鹰且美元/日元破165时，PBOC还能守住人民币锚吗？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6b21f55265fa/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "突破早已发生：对美元/日元\"四十年低位\"交易及其人民币/亚洲新兴市场外溢的压力测试", "summary": "突破早已发生：对美元/日元\"四十年低位\"交易及其人民币/亚洲新兴市场外溢的压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-377c8f4c2f16/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "KWEB", "FXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c89650af9e", "title": "酒店餐饮休闲复苏正在从客流修复转向 RevPAR、翻台率与小盘 Alpha", "titleEn": "Leisure, hotels, and restaurants are moving from traffic recovery to RevPAR, table turnover, and small-cap alpha", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c89650af9e/", "laneId": "lane_dd5a3eb17672", "lane": "酒店餐饮休闲/服务消费", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/hotels-restaurants-leisure-and-services-consumption/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "消费行业周报研究计划", "summary": "本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-27 (周一) → 2026-07-31 (周五)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0390d4d7efcf/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "消费行业周度研究执行稿", "summary": "覆盖窗口：2026-07-27（周一）至2026-07-31（周五） 日期锚点：系统日期锚 返回 2026-08-02。本稿所有“本周”“最新”“上一交易日”均以 2026-08-02 为锚点，最近完整交易周为 2026...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f486396b9de2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "9922.HK", "3690.HK", "001215.SZ", "YUMC", "300144.SZ", "1179.HK", "0780.HK", "605108.SH", "9658.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8b8ede3135", "title": "消费降级、健康刚需与银发经济正在重塑防御型增长", "titleEn": "Consumer downgrade, healthcare necessities, and the silver economy are reshaping defensive growth", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8b8ede3135/", "laneId": "lane_8cf8740aac77", "lane": "消费降级/健康银发", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/consumer-downgrade-health-and-silver-economy/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "消费行业周报研究计划", "summary": "本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-27 (周一) → 2026-07-31 (周五)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0390d4d7efcf/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "消费行业周度研究执行稿", "summary": "覆盖窗口：2026-07-27（周一）至2026-07-31（周五） 日期锚点：系统日期锚 返回 2026-08-02。本稿所有“本周”“最新”“上一交易日”均以 2026-08-02 为锚点，最近完整交易周为 2026...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f486396b9de2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600519.SH", "3690.HK", "001215.SZ", "600276.SH", "300760.SZ", "1801.HK", "1177.HK", "2319.HK", "UNH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a6599a3f5", "title": "新一代信息技术国产替代要从信创叙事进入算力、软件与安全订单验证", "titleEn": "Domestic IT substitution must move from policy narrative to compute, software, and security order proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a6599a3f5/", "laneId": "lane_e4f90acbf804", "lane": "信创/国产 IT 栈", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/domestic-it-substitution-stack/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "A股微结构压力测试：能否对算力/HBM兑现“惩罚融资”去估值？（2026-07-27）", "summary": "A股微结构压力测试：能否对算力/HBM兑现“惩罚融资”去估值？（2026-07-27）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-42b46a1fd5f0/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "把\"奖励建设、惩罚融资\"杠铃翻译为 A 股行业与风格轮动，2026-07-27", "summary": "把\"奖励建设、惩罚融资\"杠铃翻译为 A 股行业与风格轮动，2026-07-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e0a6fedc16e0/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "300308.SZ", "NVDA", "000977.SZ", "688008.SH", "688012.SH", "688111.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-741d1d6f34", "title": "地产、土地财政与 REITs 是中国信用底的慢变量", "titleEn": "Property, land finance, and REITs are the slow variables behind China's credit floor", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-741d1d6f34/", "laneId": "lane_5c8ea9f78210", "lane": "地产信用底/REITs", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-property-credit-floor-and-reits/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 61, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "房地产周报研究计划", "summary": "本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-27 (周一) → 2026-07-31 (周五)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-796182351931/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "房地产行业午间同步简报（2026-07-27）", "summary": "日期锚点：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-27。本文所有“今日 / 昨日 / 本周 / 上周 / 上一交易日”均按 2026-07-27 解析。 输入完整性：已拉取并通读 my recent reports.md （ 384 行）、...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5c10c7a01546/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "1109.HK", "600048.SH", "001979.SZ", "0960.HK", "0688.HK", "000002.SZ", "0823.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-241377c8be", "title": "显示材料改善需由利润率与现金流共同确认", "titleEn": "Display-material recovery requires joint margin and cash-flow confirmation", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-241377c8be/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 59, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "半导体分析师2026-07-27 - 衰退型9月按兵不动下AI芯片需求韧性压力测试", "summary": "半导体分析师2026-07-27 - 衰退型9月按兵不动下AI芯片需求韧性压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b570f93908f4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "半导体与AI硬件产业链承接力评估：景气度撑得起估值吗？", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 半导体分析师 · 立场： 支持（SUPPORT） 工作日期： 2026-07-27（亚洲/新加坡） · 根主题： 6月CPI降温但PCE通胀仍高背景下的2026年7月28-29日FOMC决策风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-112436624456/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "ASML", "000660.KS", "MU", "002916.SZ", "600552.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9d3836cc07", "title": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "titleEn": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d3836cc07/", "laneId": "lane_008e3bd9306a", "lane": "AI 软件效率/生产率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-software-productivity/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 58, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "首席策略师", "summary": "研究记录 · 工作日期： 2026-07-27（亚洲/新加坡） 根主题： AI capex 拥挤交易是否正在转化为融资与久期冲击？ 任务： 若本周 Meta / Microsoft / Amazon 继续上修 AI capex，市场会买半导体...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8cf798b66a49/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "MSFT 行业定位", "summary": "MSFT 的行业定位不是单一“软件公司”，而是横跨全球软件、IaaS/云基础设施、生产力 SaaS、企业应用、开发者平台和 AI 平台的综合型科技平台。按 Gartner 口径，2026 年全球 IT 支出预计为 $6.3...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eefc9eacce09/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "NVDA", "NOW", "CRM", "ADBE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-44cf9d91f6", "title": "中国大健康 Alpha 正从医保压价转向创新药出海、临床确定性与设备刚需", "titleEn": "China healthcare alpha is moving from reimbursement pressure to overseas licensing, clinical certainty, and equipment...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-44cf9d91f6/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 57, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "医药行业周报研究计划", "summary": "本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-27 (周一) → 2026-07-31 (周五)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a929ec706c91/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "医药行业午间碰头会简报（2026-07-27）", "summary": "日期锚点：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-27。本文所有“今日 / 昨日 / 本周 / 上周 / 上一交易日”均按 2026-07-27 解析。 - 内部知识库状态： my recent reports.md 、 my disputed clai...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7e10127502f3/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "2359.HK", "600276.SH", "1801.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "6990.HK", "300760.SZ", "603259.SH", "1177.HK", "002821.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-603a5f7966", "title": "A 股硬科技与科创50的复苏需要订单、融资盘和指数结构共振", "titleEn": "A-share hard tech and STAR50 recovery needs orders, margin positioning, and index structure to align", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-603a5f7966/", "laneId": "lane_4cc1e74d8e5f", "lane": "A股硬科技/科创50", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-hard-tech-and-star50/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 56, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "A股微结构压力测试：能否对算力/HBM兑现“惩罚融资”去估值？（2026-07-27）", "summary": "A股微结构压力测试：能否对算力/HBM兑现“惩罚融资”去估值？（2026-07-27）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-42b46a1fd5f0/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-27：人民币企稳后的A股精选成长——加仓容量图谱与拥挤度体检", "summary": "2026-07-27：人民币企稳后的A股精选成长——加仓容量图谱与拥挤度体检", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8c80874e34e4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "600900.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH", "300394.SZ", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ce29facfbd", "title": "中国资产定价仍受政策、流动性与风险偏好共同驱动", "titleEn": "China asset pricing remains driven by policy, liquidity, and risk appetite", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ce29facfbd/", "laneId": "lane_a8d9c69ae883", "lane": "中国权益流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-equity-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 52, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "人民币与北向约束下的A股风险预算", "summary": "研究记录日期：2026-07-27，Asia/Singapore。 研究记录；research note；立场： stress-test；作者角色：Global Macro Analyst [自测算]。截至 2026-07-27...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-53a540b72d50/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-27 全球宏观综合：中国能对冲鹰派暂停，但只够支撑 A股中性配置", "summary": "2026-07-27 全球宏观综合：中国能对冲鹰派暂停，但只够支撑 A股中性配置", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dfe7a0547065/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "0700.HK", "9988.HK", "510300.SH", "159915.SZ", "300750.SZ", "3988.HK", "588000.SH", "LOW" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e9630d3ee1", "title": "日元套息平仓是 EM 科技、离岸中资与高 beta 主题的尾部流动性风险", "titleEn": "Yen carry unwind is a tail liquidity risk for EM tech, offshore China, and high-beta themes", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e9630d3ee1/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 52, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "套息平仓情景下的跨资产配置与对冲：Beta 预算、USD/JPY 凸性对冲与防御再平衡", "summary": "套息平仓情景下的跨资产配置与对冲：Beta 预算、USD/JPY 凸性对冲与防御再平衡", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-31c3c6babc5f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "突破早已发生：对美元/日元\"四十年低位\"交易及其人民币/亚洲新兴市场外溢的压力测试", "summary": "突破早已发生：对美元/日元\"四十年低位\"交易及其人民币/亚洲新兴市场外溢的压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-377c8f4c2f16/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "CME", "CBOE", "LOW", "UUP", "EEM", "FXY", "EWJ", "MCHI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9a860a8801", "title": "信用再融资压力正在把利率风险转化为资产负债表筛选", "titleEn": "Credit refinancing pressure is turning rate risk into balance-sheet selection", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a860a8801/", "laneId": "lane_b29e1d216a21", "lane": "信用再融资/私募信贷", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/credit-refinancing-and-private-debt/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 52, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "本周金融行业周报研究计划", "summary": "本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-27 (周一) → 2026-07-31 (周五)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b109d57fe157/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI 基础设施融资的信用周期风险，2026-07-27", "summary": "截至研究所工作日 2026-07-27，我对研究记录 02 定位的 L3/L4 脆弱层做压力测试：约 $662 billion 尚未起租的 hyperscaler 数据中心租赁承诺，以及 CoreWeave/Oracle 融资循环，目前还不是系统...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e0219c69659d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "KRE", "JPM", "META", "BX", "ARES", "KKR", "APO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3d421524cd", "title": "油价地缘底线决定再通胀与降息交易的安全边际", "titleEn": "The geopolitical oil floor defines the margin of safety for disinflation and rate-cut trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3d421524cd/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 50, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "原油市场监测：WTI/Brent、OPEC+与库存", "summary": "1. 油价短线回落，但风险溢价仍在。 AP 报道，Brent 9月交割合约在交易恢复后下跌 4.9% 至 92.02 美元/桶，WTI 9月交割合约下跌 5.6% 至 84.34 美元/桶；Brent 上周曾短暂触及 102 美元/桶，说...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-22edef0e4ecf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "将Brent供给情景映射到美国CPI、通胀预期与9月FOMC反应函数（工作日期：2026-07-27）", "summary": "将Brent供给情景映射到美国CPI、通胀预期与9月FOMC反应函数（工作日期：2026-07-27）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-95ba343524fc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CME", "CVX", "XOM", "600938.SH", "600900.SH", "0857.HK", "COP", "601857.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d6b2c23ed6", "title": "航运与物流成本是油价、关税和供应链再通胀的二阶传导器", "titleEn": "Shipping and logistics costs are a second-order transmission channel for oil, tariffs, and supply-chain reflation", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d6b2c23ed6/", "laneId": "lane_79a55cd8530e", "lane": "航运物流/再通胀传导", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/shipping-logistics-and-reflation-transmission/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "霍尔木兹关闭时长、OPEC+ 可交付富余产能与 SPR 对 Brent 的封顶约束（工作日：2026-07-27）", "summary": "霍尔木兹关闭时长、OPEC+ 可交付富余产能与 SPR 对 Brent 的封顶约束（工作日：2026-07-27）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-edf02b36c2cd/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "霍尔木兹货流正常化时间线与硫磺/化肥回归闸门 — 2026-07-27", "summary": "工作日: 2026-07-27（Asia/Singapore） · 分析师: global-macro · 立场: stress-test", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-18342ff9c09d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601919.SH", "1919.HK", "ZIM", "MATX", "600026.SH", "600018.SH", "BOAT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-813fa71c15", "title": "科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-813fa71c15/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 84, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27 压力测试：科创50ETF期权 1.75 与 1.70 的 Gamma 墙", "summary": "2026-07-27 压力测试：科创50ETF期权 1.75 与 1.70 的 Gamma 墙", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-74168c3a53a0/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688008.SH", "688041.SH", "688012.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d03c2555a8", "title": "美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d03c2555a8/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "原油市场监测：WTI/Brent、OPEC+与库存", "summary": "1. 油价短线回落，但风险溢价仍在。 AP 报道，Brent 9月交割合约在交易恢复后下跌 4.9% 至 92.02 美元/桶，WTI 9月交割合约下跌 5.6% 至 84.34 美元/桶；Brent 上周曾短暂触及 102 美元/桶，说...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-22edef0e4ecf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-58f268edf9", "title": "隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-58f268edf9/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27 A股策略：8月中报季盈利宽度能否为 carry→beta 升级补上基本面一腿？", "summary": "2026-07-27 A股策略：8月中报季盈利宽度能否为 carry→beta 升级补上基本面一腿？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-87eac5cb5898/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5a0bd732f3", "title": "A股杠铃策略应落地为“红利蓝筹压舱 + 硬科技成长进攻 + 轮动仓位调节”的三层结构，两融是成长端驱动力，ETF赎回和限售股解禁是仓位上限。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股杠铃策略应落地为“红利蓝筹压舱 + 硬科技成长进攻 + 轮动仓位调节”的三层结构，两融是成长端驱动力，ETF赎回和限售股解禁是仓位上限。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5a0bd732f3/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "首席策略师 — A股能否吸收下一轮政策消息缺口？ETF／两融／解禁三重供给约束压力测试", "summary": "首席策略师 — A股能否吸收下一轮政策消息缺口？ETF／两融／解禁三重供给约束压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-35b100b1414d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "510300.SH", "300750.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-307b7fe2cb", "title": "美联储7月两难：Warsh鹰派点阵图 vs 开裂的劳动力市场与消退的伊朗油价冲击", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储7月两难：Warsh鹰派点阵图 vs 开裂的劳动力市场与消退的伊朗油价冲击", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-307b7fe2cb/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "石油冲击下的美联储：Warsh 的抗通胀防线撞上 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC", "summary": "石油冲击下的美联储：Warsh 的抗通胀防线撞上 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a03cb191f369/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a13f19ec2d", "title": "红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a13f19ec2d/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27 — 55%基准路径下A股风格/行业配置与两融头寸", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-07-27，Asia/Singapore。研究记录。分析师角色： chief-strategist（首席策略师，A股策略、风格轮动、行业配置）。立场： synthesize（综合）。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8fb5c91848e9/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601398.SH", "688981.SH", "510880.SH", "600941.SH", "601088.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-dfa08317f5", "title": "博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-dfa08317f5/", "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956", "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 AI硬件领导股：两融尚未充分重置， th T07 再入场仍不成立", "summary": "2026-07-28 AI硬件领导股：两融尚未充分重置， th T07 再入场仍不成立", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-48bff0b7c83a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "300394.SZ", "300502.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0011ad682c", "title": "美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0011ad682c/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险...", "summary": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险预算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7d3d1f79dac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "JPM", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-69025fa4b4", "title": "驱动对冲阶梯的 Fed / BoJ / ECB 政策路径", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 驱动对冲阶梯的 Fed / BoJ / ECB 政策路径", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-69025fa4b4/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险...", "summary": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险预算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7d3d1f79dac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-29b1c0d6c7", "title": "日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-29b1c0d6c7/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险...", "summary": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险预算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7d3d1f79dac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-6ae5e48f60", "title": "折算率冲击目前更像高估值拥挤交易的局部去杠杆，而非已经形成全市场融资平仓链条。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 折算率冲击目前更像高估值拥挤交易的局部去杠杆，而非已经形成全市场融资平仓链条。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6ae5e48f60/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27 - A股两融去杠杆启动后的跨资产风险预算", "summary": "分析师: chief-strategist（首席策略师） · 承接 chief-strategist（既有研究记录） 研究记录 工作日期: 2026-07-27（Asia/Singapore）[自测算] · 立场: synthesize 工作区说明: 实盘...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-68d9c082339c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c951442d7f", "title": "日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c951442d7f/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险...", "summary": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险预算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7d3d1f79dac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-57faae4252", "title": "能源供应约束对AI基础设施资本开支效率的影响：电力缺口能否支撑超大规模厂商的扩容预期？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源供应约束对AI基础设施资本开支效率的影响：电力缺口能否支撑超大规模厂商的扩容预期？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-57faae4252/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27 AI基础设施压力测试：电力与电网能否承接$725bn AI资本开支？", "summary": "2026-07-27 AI基础设施压力测试：电力与电网能否承接$725bn AI资本开支？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1a0131ecf861/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3bf2a3ec55", "title": "请先统一事实读数与压力情景：CNH HIBOR 12.00%和USD/JPY 162.18应否进入今日基准？若仅为情景，A股β≈0.28…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请先统一事实读数与压力情景：CNH HIBOR 12.00%和USD/JPY 162.18应否进入今日基准？若仅为情景，A股β≈0.28…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3bf2a3ec55/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险...", "summary": "最终组合合成 —— USD/JPY 凸性、USD/CNH 对冲阶梯、A 股高股息、黄金与 CGB 久期的统一 NAV 风险预算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7d3d1f79dac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e12bcc0d59", "title": "PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e12bcc0d59/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27 研究卡：若 USD/CNY 测试 6.88，PBOC 中间价与中国流动性反应", "summary": "2026-07-27 研究卡：若 USD/CNY 测试 6.88，PBOC 中间价与中国流动性反应", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ed43a0062fa1/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "510300.SH", "512100.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-56d9baf47d", "title": "2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-56d9baf47d/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "油价—美联储三情景下的跨资产配置：久期、美元、能源、通胀盈亏平衡与权益", "summary": "研究记录日期：2026-07-27，亚洲/新加坡时区。；research note；立场： 综合（synthesize）。作者：首席策略师。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0f1b5636d0ed/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-662985737d", "title": "在12% HIBOR极端挤空及离岸流动性收紧传导下，将USD/CNH期权套保释放的5374万人民币全额转配至离岸存款以锁定12%高息Ca…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在12% HIBOR极端挤空及离岸流动性收紧传导下，将USD/CNH期权套保释放的5374万人民币全额转配至离岸存款以锁定12%高息Ca…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-662985737d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-29 前序研究 —— USD/CNH 6.90/7.20看涨价差在人民币敏感组合中的名义规模与资产覆盖", "summary": "2026-07-29 前序研究 —— USD/CNH 6.90/7.20看涨价差在人民币敏感组合中的名义规模与资产覆盖", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e5d7114c9dd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7b4a91628c", "title": "掉期成本翻正使 USD/CNH 远期曲线倒挂，远期由套保工具变为贬值信号；越过 3M CNH HIBOR ≈ 5.3% 拐点后，央行流动…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 掉期成本翻正使 USD/CNH 远期曲线倒挂，远期由套保工具变为贬值信号；越过 3M CNH HIBOR ≈ 5.3% 拐点后，央行流动…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7b4a91628c/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-29 前序研究 —— USD/CNH 6.90/7.20看涨价差在人民币敏感组合中的名义规模与资产覆盖", "summary": "2026-07-29 前序研究 —— USD/CNH 6.90/7.20看涨价差在人民币敏感组合中的名义规模与资产覆盖", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e5d7114c9dd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ab1fb6a453", "title": "DeepSeek 式低价模型正在重塑 AI 定价权与软件利润池", "titleEn": "DeepSeek-style low-cost models are reshaping AI pricing power and software profit pools", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ab1fb6a453/", "laneId": "lane_13710af7e06d", "lane": "低价模型/AI 软件利润池", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/low-cost-models-and-ai-software-profit-pools/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 72, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "MSFT 行业定位", "summary": "MSFT 的行业定位不是单一“软件公司”，而是横跨全球软件、IaaS/云基础设施、生产力 SaaS、企业应用、开发者平台和 AI 平台的综合型科技平台。按 Gartner 口径，2026 年全球 IT 支出预计为 $6.3...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eefc9eacce09/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "BABA", "MSFT", "BIDU", "9988.HK", "CRM", "0700.HK", "NVDA", "NOW", "9888.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-10f0672291", "title": "科创50单日+8.41%后，团队应把硬科技升为中期主线，还是在两融、广度、ETF申赎确认前按拥挤反弹处理？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50单日+8.41%后，团队应把硬科技升为中期主线，还是在两融、广度、ETF申赎确认前按拥挤反弹处理？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-10f0672291/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 71, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "首席策略师 — A股能否吸收下一轮政策消息缺口？ETF／两融／解禁三重供给约束压力测试", "summary": "首席策略师 — A股能否吸收下一轮政策消息缺口？ETF／两融／解禁三重供给约束压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-35b100b1414d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688008.SH", "688012.SH", "688041.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b13c7cf092", "title": "高纯石英材料受益于先进封装扩产，但兑现取决于认证与产品结构", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz can benefit from advanced-packaging expansion, conditional on qualification and mix", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13c7cf092/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "半导体与AI硬件产业链承接力评估：景气度撑得起估值吗？", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 半导体分析师 · 立场： 支持（SUPPORT） 工作日期： 2026-07-27（亚洲/新加坡） · 根主题： 6月CPI降温但PCE通胀仍高背景下的2026年7月28-29日FOMC决策风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-112436624456/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "MU", "000660.KS", "ASML", "688012.SH", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d8170c3a35", "title": "近海资本开支与设备利用率驱动油服盈利弹性", "titleEn": "Offshore capex and equipment utilization drive oilfield-service earnings leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d8170c3a35/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "油价路径、霍尔木兹海峡风险与美联储约束", "summary": "本报告日期：2026-07-27，Asia/Singapore。 本报告对 既有研究记录的判断做 stress-test：7月28-29日FOMC大概率按兵不动，但在油价驱动通胀冲击下偏鹰 [S1]。我的结论是：我支持“短期...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0595b480eb78/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CVX", "XOM", "0883.HK", "COP", "2883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0", "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层", "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "首席策略师", "summary": "研究记录 · 工作日期： 2026-07-27（亚洲/新加坡） 根主题： AI capex 拥挤交易是否正在转化为融资与久期冲击？ 任务： 若本周 Meta / Microsoft / Amazon 继续上修 AI capex，市场会买半导体...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8cf798b66a49/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "TSM", "AVGO", "AAPL", "TSLA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9d1baaec59", "title": "CAR-T商业化取决于进院、支付覆盖与患者转化", "titleEn": "CAR-T commercialization depends on hospital access, reimbursement and patient conversion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d1baaec59/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "医药行业周报研究计划", "summary": "本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-27 (周一) → 2026-07-31 (周五)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a929ec706c91/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "1801.HK", "600276.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "603259.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-40b8638803", "title": "全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-40b8638803/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股微结构压力测试：能否对算力/HBM兑现“惩罚融资”去估值？（2026-07-27）", "summary": "A股微结构压力测试：能否对算力/HBM兑现“惩罚融资”去估值？（2026-07-27）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-42b46a1fd5f0/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "000660.KS", "MU", "688012.SH", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-31f32af77b", "title": "中国云与国产算力栈的关键不是模型热度，而是训练/推理订单、服务器交付和生态锁定", "titleEn": "China cloud and local compute stacks depend less on model hype than training/inference orders, server delivery, and e...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-31f32af77b/", "laneId": "lane_2997650d0638", "lane": "中国云/国产算力栈", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-cloud-and-local-compute-stack/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "§1 THESIS", "summary": "author: morning-brief-editor as of: 2026-07-27 market window: pre-open market: AH tickers: [000001.SH, 000688.SH, 002879.SZ, 002300.SZ, 688825.SH, 00…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-76b6c2b4a743/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "300308.SZ", "601138.SH", "0981.HK", "688981.SH", "000977.SZ", "9988.HK", "NVDA", "0700.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-df608ec2a1", "title": "AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-df608ec2a1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27最终硬科技beta配置：把电力/电网兑现闸门放进再进场仓位", "summary": "2026-07-27最终硬科技beta配置：把电力/电网兑现闸门放进再进场仓位", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9fc41ec5ed0c/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "GEV", "600089.SH", "ETN", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a119a01ce4", "title": "评估AI算力能耗增长对电力与电网瓶颈的影响，以及能源成本压力如何传导至下游CXO产业链。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 评估AI算力能耗增长对电力与电网瓶颈的影响，以及能源成本压力如何传导至下游CXO产业链。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a119a01ce4/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27 AI基础设施压力测试：电力与电网能否承接$725bn AI资本开支？", "summary": "2026-07-27 AI基础设施压力测试：电力与电网能否承接$725bn AI资本开支？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1a0131ecf861/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "002028.SZ", "CEG", "601179.SH", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-70daf87262", "title": "A 股红利与硬科技杠铃仍是政策、利率和风险偏好的组合表达", "titleEn": "A-share dividend and hard-tech barbell remains the portfolio expression of policy, rates, and risk appetite", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-70daf87262/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "strengthening", "directionLabel": "强化", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-28 策略研究记录：剔除银行红利+煤炭+中国海油偏上游组合权重", "summary": "2026-07-28 策略研究记录：剔除银行红利+煤炭+中国海油偏上游组合权重", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-73fcba7ae868/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601398.SH", "601088.SH", "600941.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "601939.SH", "510880.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4e383ee09c", "title": "2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4e383ee09c/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026–2027 Hyperscaler Capex 结构拆分与 FCF 敏感性", "summary": "2026–2027 Hyperscaler Capex 结构拆分与 FCF 敏感性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2eb21dfdb6dd/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-025e4c0d2d", "title": "复合材料业务修复向利润增长传导", "titleEn": "Composite-Materials Recovery Transmits into Earnings Growth", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-025e4c0d2d/", "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80", "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球能源转型进展追踪：光伏 / 风电 / 储能 / 氢能", "summary": "分析师：能源行业分析师（energy-analyst） 报告日期：2026-07-27（数据窗口截至该日） 覆盖范围：光伏与风电装机、电化学储能、氢能政策 上游文件核查：本步骤未引用任何上游文件；工作区为空...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8e42b718c1ff/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300274.SZ", "002028.SZ", "300750.SZ", "002080.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-be91bfe6ee", "title": "高纯石英材料需求需由先进封装订单验证", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz demand requires validation from advanced-packaging orders", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-be91bfe6ee/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 63, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "半导体与AI硬件产业链承接力评估：景气度撑得起估值吗？", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 半导体分析师 · 立场： 支持（SUPPORT） 工作日期： 2026-07-27（亚洲/新加坡） · 根主题： 6月CPI降温但PCE通胀仍高背景下的2026年7月28-29日FOMC决策风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-112436624456/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "000660.KS", "688012.SH", "MU", "ASML", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3986819dc0", "title": "A 股半导体的核心风险从订单验证转向 A/H 溢价、两融与负 Gamma", "titleEn": "A-share semiconductor risk is shifting from order proof to A/H premium, margin financing, and negative gamma", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3986819dc0/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 61, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "科创板半导体解禁洪峰 × 两融集中：名字级强制抛售级联的量化", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 半导体分析师 · 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） 工作日期： 2026-07-27（Asia/Singapore） · 本会话根主题： 信用利差仍窄是否低估了油价和收益率冲击？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4b0814ef5da8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688981.SH", "688256.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "600900.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH", "300308.SZ", "002371.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-6f42e0fe6e", "title": "稀土、铜铝与关键材料正在成为 AI 与新能源共用的供给约束", "titleEn": "Rare earths, copper, aluminum, and key materials are becoming shared supply constraints for AI and energy transition", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6f42e0fe6e/", "laneId": "lane_8c4a3526fcca", "lane": "关键材料/稀土铜铝", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/critical-materials-rare-earths-copper-and-aluminum/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 58, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "材料行业周报研究计划", "summary": "本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-27 (周一) → 2026-07-31 (周五)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-16b86a7678a7/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "FCX", "GEV", "000831.SZ", "SCCO", "ETN", "MP", "TECK", "600111.SH", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d4473d35e5", "title": "猪周期、粮食与农产品价格决定中国低通胀修复的弹性", "titleEn": "Hog cycle, grain, and agricultural prices define the elasticity of China's low-inflation repair", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d4473d35e5/", "laneId": "lane_6e276fa53da1", "lane": "食品农业/猪周期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-agriculture-and-hog-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 56, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "农业行业周报研究计划", "summary": "本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-27 (周一) → 2026-07-31 (周五)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b1d7b9ab5a5a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002714.SZ", "001215.SZ", "300498.SZ", "000876.SZ", "CME", "600298.SH", "ADM", "DBA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-fd31cc177b", "title": "债券供给、地方债与久期需求决定利率下行空间", "titleEn": "Bond supply, local-government debt, and duration demand define room for rates to fall", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fd31cc177b/", "laneId": "lane_6fbf93c613f9", "lane": "债券供给/银行久期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/bond-supply-and-bank-duration/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 54, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "上市银行净息差趋势与影响因素", "summary": "基准日期：2026-07-27。本报告中的“今年”“一季度”“上一交易日/近期”等相对表述均以该日期为终点理解；最新已披露监管口径数据为 2026 年一季度。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5f43c2cc3eba/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601398.SH", "601939.SH", "601288.SH", "3988.HK", "600900.SH", "TLT", "IEF", "000001.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-08dd090dc9", "title": "公用事业从防御红利切换到电网扩容、容量费与信用再定价", "titleEn": "Utilities are shifting from defensive dividends to grid expansion, capacity fees, and credit repricing", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08dd090dc9/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "公用事业周报研究计划", "summary": "本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-27 (周一) → 2026-07-31 (周五)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a0c03a36346f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "AEP", "600900.SH", "CEG", "DUK", "VST", "XLU", "META", "NEE", "SMR", "GEV" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5057edfa79", "title": "AI-Biology 与医疗效率改善需要从科研突破走向支付和监管兑现", "titleEn": "AI biology and healthcare productivity must move from research breakthroughs to reimbursement and regulatory proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5057edfa79/", "laneId": "lane_2eefe4e126c6", "lane": "AI 医疗/生物科技效率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-healthcare-and-biology-productivity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 48, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "医药行业周报研究计划", "summary": "本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-27 (周一) → 2026-07-31 (周五)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a929ec706c91/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300760.SZ", "688271.SH", "300633.SZ", "688212.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "688617.SH", "DHR", "SDGR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-740e729f22", "title": "人民币、美元与套息交易决定跨境风险资产的流动性折价", "titleEn": "RMB, USD, and carry trades define the liquidity discount across cross-border risk assets", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-740e729f22/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 47, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "油价—美联储三情景下的跨资产配置：久期、美元、能源、通胀盈亏平衡与权益", "summary": "研究记录日期：2026-07-27，亚洲/新加坡时区。；research note；立场： 综合（synthesize）。作者：首席策略师。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0f1b5636d0ed/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "3988.HK", "0700.HK", "UUP", "2800.HK", "9988.HK", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a803fa3312", "title": "美联储路径仍是全球资产再定价的总阀门", "titleEn": "The Fed path remains the master valve for global asset repricing", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a803fa3312/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 46, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "油价—美联储三情景下的跨资产配置：久期、美元、能源、通胀盈亏平衡与权益", "summary": "研究记录日期：2026-07-27，亚洲/新加坡时区。；research note；立场： 综合（synthesize）。作者：首席策略师。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0f1b5636d0ed/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "TLT", "JPM", "KRE", "GLD", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2ec6b9d3ee", "title": "卫星直连与商业航天从概念弹性进入部署兑现期", "titleEn": "Direct-to-device satellite and commercial space are moving from concept beta to deployment proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2ec6b9d3ee/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 46, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-27 宏观流动性压力测试：A股总量资金能否承接商业航天小流通盘Beta？", "summary": "2026-07-27 宏观流动性压力测试：A股总量资金能否承接商业航天小流通盘Beta？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-df04d7421dbd/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "IRDM", "LUNR", "LMT", "600118.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e26ef69f73", "title": "风险核查与证据质量是主题交易的必要过滤器", "titleEn": "Risk verification and evidence quality are necessary filters for theme trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e26ef69f73/", "laneId": "lane_ccbe817778d1", "lane": "组合风控/证据质量", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/portfolio-risk-and-evidence-quality/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "美国市场周度研究报告", "summary": "覆盖窗口： 2026-07-27 至 2026-07-31 锚定日期： 2026-08-02，由 shell 命令 系统日期锚 确认。上周/本周均指截至 2026-07-31 的最近完整美股交易周。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6c6db43b28df/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "CBOE", "IBKR", "VIRT", "SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4074d8a3d2", "title": "碳价、可再生能源与储能 CapEx 正在重塑电力资产回报", "titleEn": "Carbon pricing, renewables, and storage capex are reshaping power-asset returns", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4074d8a3d2/", "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80", "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 42, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球能源转型进展追踪：光伏 / 风电 / 储能 / 氢能", "summary": "分析师：能源行业分析师（energy-analyst） 报告日期：2026-07-27（数据窗口截至该日） 覆盖范围：光伏与风电装机、电化学储能、氢能政策 上游文件核查：本步骤未引用任何上游文件；工作区为空...", "href": 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"convictionTotal": 892, "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP", "JPM", "P", "CME", "KRE", "GLD" ], "avgConviction": 74 }, { "id": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "title": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "href": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "thesisCount": 8, "eventCount": 12, "convictionTotal": 617, "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "688008.SH", "600900.SH", "300308.SZ", "002371.SZ" ], "avgConviction": 77 }, { "id": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "title": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "href": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "thesisCount": 6, "eventCount": 12, "convictionTotal": 435, "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP", "KWEB", "CME", "CBOE", "LOW", "EEM", "EWJ", "MCHI" ], "avgConviction": 73 }, { "id": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "title": "AI 算力半导体", "href": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "thesisCount": 3, "eventCount": 8, "convictionTotal": 221, "stockTickers": [ "META", "NVDA", "AMD", "MU", "AVGO", "TSM", 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