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      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-07-26，Asia/Singapore。作者：首席策略师。立场： 综合（synthesize） ——我把既有研究记录的宏观逻辑链落地为明确的超配/标配/低配行业网格。",
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      "analyst": "未识别",
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      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 02 · 作者：全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日期：2026-07-26（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：压力测试（针对研究记录 01 的\"更高更久\"机制判断）",
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      "category": "其他",
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      "analyst": "未识别",
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      "category": "其他",
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      "date": "2026-07-26",
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      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 研究所工作日：2026-07-26（亚洲/新加坡） 作者：agri-analyst（农业行业分析师 —— 种植、农资、粮食安全）· 立场：initial",
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      "category": "其他",
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          "title": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "summary": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cceeadc32456/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 美元/日元套息平仓触发图与USD/CNH传导",
          "summary": "分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 工作日期： 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） - 立场： stress-test - 问题： 在美联储鹰派按兵不动、日央行9月可能加息25bp的组合下，美元/日元在哪...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-70899b7533e5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7e3577f927b4/",
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        },
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 看跌期权 + Receiver 组合的凸性及 HFL 因子脱钩校验",
          "summary": "USD/JPY 看跌期权 + Receiver 组合的凸性及 HFL 因子脱钩校验",
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      "id": "thesis-e58a9e8746",
      "title": "日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e58a9e8746/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
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          "summary": "USD/JPY 看跌期权 + Receiver 组合的凸性及 HFL 因子脱钩校验",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-776ae48af577/",
          "stance": "risk",
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        },
        {
          "title": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "summary": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cceeadc32456/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 全球宏观：美元通过USD/CNY、JPY与carry交易的传导",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 全球宏观：美元通过USD/CNY、JPY与carry交易的传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2b421104cff1/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 有序跌至 150 但未无序时的外汇凸性兑现与权益 Beta 回补规则",
          "summary": "USD/JPY 有序跌至 150 但未无序时的外汇凸性兑现与权益 Beta 回补规则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fd702bf2a8dc/",
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        "FXY",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-69025fa4b4",
      "title": "驱动对冲阶梯的 Fed / BoJ / ECB 政策路径",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 驱动对冲阶梯的 Fed / BoJ / ECB 政策路径",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-69025fa4b4/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "summary": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cceeadc32456/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 有序跌至 150 但未无序时的外汇凸性兑现与权益 Beta 回补规则",
          "summary": "USD/JPY 有序跌至 150 但未无序时的外汇凸性兑现与权益 Beta 回补规则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fd702bf2a8dc/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 看跌期权 + Receiver 组合的凸性及 HFL 因子脱钩校验",
          "summary": "USD/JPY 看跌期权 + Receiver 组合的凸性及 HFL 因子脱钩校验",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-776ae48af577/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 — 7月FOMC后USD/JPY看跌价差执行结构",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-26，本报告综合前序结论：保留研究记录04的权益Beta下调，但外汇对冲应执行为不融资的普通vanilla USD/JPY下行看跌价差；向交易对手询价时可表述为JPY call/USD put...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-77ad1c6427ff/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-2e367ef854",
      "title": "美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2e367ef854/",
      "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08",
      "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 4,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 — 中国消费的K型读数，及窄复苏对7月FOMC前2026下半年再通胀路径的含义",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 — 中国消费的K型读数，及窄复苏对7月FOMC前2026下半年再通胀路径的含义",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-076509301a50/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "全球宏观研究：7月FOMC/PCE冲击窗口，工作日期2026-07-26 [自测算：系统日期锚 返回 202...",
          "summary": "全球宏观研究：7月FOMC/PCE冲击窗口，工作日期2026-07-26 [自测算：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-26；研究院工作日期为准]",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0a42b68ca5b0/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "大类资产配置研究：7月28-30日FOMC/PCE/GDP窗口下的多资产风险预算 — 工作日期 2026-07-26",
          "summary": "大类资产配置研究：7月28-30日FOMC/PCE/GDP窗口下的多资产风险预算 — 工作日期 2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2087ef542c88/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 全球宏观开局卡：7月FOMC的油价通胀冲击",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-26，Asia/Singapore。本报告由 global-macro 撰写，核心问题是：在 Federal Reserve 于 2026年7月28-29日 召开会议前，油价驱动的再定价是否足以让组合为意外加息做准备，而...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-95254fcbdf58/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "XLE",
        "XLU",
        "TLT"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e40b25962e",
      "title": "A股“大行+红利/稀缺成长”哑铃配置在低杠杆与高可视度Backlog支撑下并未拥挤，而弱区域中小银行因资产质量二阶传导滞后与重度稀释风险…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股“大行+红利/稀缺成长”哑铃配置在低杠杆与高可视度Backlog支撑下并未拥挤，而弱区域中小银行因资产质量二阶传导滞后与重度稀释风险…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e40b25962e/",
      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 4,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股杠铃内部的风险预算与行业再平衡",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 作者角色: 首席策略师 · 立场: synthesize 机构工作日期: 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-280312174f4b/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "CNY偏强制度下的A股风格与红利行业权重 — 2026-07-26",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-26，Asia/Singapore。作者：首席策略师。立场： 综合（synthesize） ——我把既有研究记录的宏观逻辑链落地为明确的超配/标配/低配行业网格。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-67e730fb5545/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 A股策略卡：7月30日数据前维持防御型A股账本，偏向红利/自由现金流质量与低融资敏感度",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 A股策略卡：7月30日数据前维持防御型A股账本，偏向红利/自由现金流质量与低融资敏感度",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-911422a705b8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "汇率走廊对冲表：纺织合规产能超配 + 电力/运营商红利腿",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师：chief-strategist · 工作日期：2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore）[S0] · 立场：synthesize",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9ed61091d6de/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
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        "600900.SH",
        "601398.SH",
        "601088.SH",
        "600941.SH"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-c951442d7f",
      "title": "日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c951442d7f/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "summary": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cceeadc32456/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 看跌期权 + Receiver 组合的凸性及 HFL 因子脱钩校验",
          "summary": "USD/JPY 看跌期权 + Receiver 组合的凸性及 HFL 因子脱钩校验",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-776ae48af577/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 美元/日元套息平仓触发图与USD/CNH传导",
          "summary": "分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 工作日期： 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） - 立场： stress-test - 问题： 在美联储鹰派按兵不动、日央行9月可能加息25bp的组合下，美元/日元在哪...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-70899b7533e5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 有序跌至 150 但未无序时的外汇凸性兑现与权益 Beta 回补规则",
          "summary": "USD/JPY 有序跌至 150 但未无序时的外汇凸性兑现与权益 Beta 回补规则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fd702bf2a8dc/",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
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        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-2ee6c1cf01",
      "title": "39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2ee6c1cf01/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7e3577f927b4/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 - USD/CNH期权对冲的执行触发与规模调整",
          "summary": "研究记录 分析师: Global Macro Analyst (global-macro) 立场: 综合 工作日期（Asia/Singapore）: 2026-07-26 根主题: 2026-07-26 - 7月FOMC与PCE/GDP密集发布窗口下的美国利率再定价 主题： US...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9cd973e968dc/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 - USD/CNH触发后的组合级风险预算再平衡",
          "summary": "研究记录 分析师: 首席策略师 (chief-strategist) 立场: 综合 工作日期（Asia/Singapore）: 2026-07-26 [自测算] 根主题: 2026-07-26 - 7月FOMC与PCE/GDP密集发布窗口下的美国利率再定价 [S1][S...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b7858f38ed85/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 美元/日元套息平仓触发图与USD/CNH传导",
          "summary": "分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 工作日期： 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） - 立场： stress-test - 问题： 在美联储鹰派按兵不动、日央行9月可能加息25bp的组合下，美元/日元在哪...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-70899b7533e5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-413f4aecc1",
      "title": "长江电力等红利拥挤度处于95%历史极值，且股息率利差压缩至历史低点，而在跨境分段生产解禁及创新药商业化兑现下医药板块大涨，这是否标志着A…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 长江电力等红利拥挤度处于95%历史极值，且股息率利差压缩至历史低点，而在跨境分段生产解禁及创新药商业化兑现下医药板块大涨，这是否标志着A…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-413f4aecc1/",
      "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e",
      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "CNY偏强制度下的A股风格与红利行业权重 — 2026-07-26",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-26，Asia/Singapore。作者：首席策略师。立场： 综合（synthesize） ——我把既有研究记录的宏观逻辑链落地为明确的超配/标配/低配行业网格。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-67e730fb5545/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 A股策略卡：7月30日数据前维持防御型A股账本，偏向红利/自由现金流质量与低融资敏感度",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 A股策略卡：7月30日数据前维持防御型A股账本，偏向红利/自由现金流质量与低融资敏感度",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-911422a705b8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "汇率走廊对冲表：纺织合规产能超配 + 电力/运营商红利腿",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师：chief-strategist · 工作日期：2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore）[S0] · 立场：synthesize",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9ed61091d6de/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "A股红利/低波防御组合的可执行行业权重、流动性与拥挤度约束",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 分析师：A股策略师（ ashare-strategist ）· 工作日：2026-07-26（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场：synthesize（综合）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bc290709ed5a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "600905.SH",
        "DUK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-77134b90a1",
      "title": "2026年7月拐点：7月24日Section 122关税悬崖与2026年伊朗战争能源冲击消退相撞，如何把美联储钉在“更高更久”",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年7月拐点：7月24日Section 122关税悬崖与2026年伊朗战争能源冲击消退相撞，如何把美联储钉在“更高更久”",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-77134b90a1/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 5,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Warsh 转向情形下的美元与人民币传导——对\"更高更久\"美元买盘的压力测试",
          "summary": "Warsh 转向情形下的美元与人民币传导——对\"更高更久\"美元买盘的压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cab2e3066d4/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "无指引、更高更久的美联储机制：向美元、期限溢价与全球套息的传导",
          "summary": "研究记录 02 · 作者：全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日期：2026-07-26（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：压力测试（针对研究记录 01 的\"更高更久\"机制判断）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2dfe0fdf5c58/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 — 中国消费的K型读数，及窄复苏对7月FOMC前2026下半年再通胀路径的含义",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 — 中国消费的K型读数，及窄复苏对7月FOMC前2026下半年再通胀路径的含义",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-076509301a50/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "大类资产配置研究：7月28-30日FOMC/PCE/GDP窗口下的多资产风险预算 — 工作日期 2026-07-26",
          "summary": "大类资产配置研究：7月28-30日FOMC/PCE/GDP窗口下的多资产风险预算 — 工作日期 2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2087ef542c88/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-ace402c8b6",
      "title": "科创板极端护盘对A股整体流动性的虹吸效应与跨板块资产配置调整 研究日期： 2026 05 22 作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Str…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创板极端护盘对A股整体流动性的虹吸效应与跨板块资产配置调整 研究日期： 2026 05 22 作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Str…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ace402c8b6/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 — 首席策略师研究记录：被释放的5pp A股贝塔的再部署与客观再入场级联",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 — 首席策略师研究记录：被释放的5pp A股贝塔的再部署与客观再入场级联",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-172a403fe593/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 首席策略师 既有研究记录鹰派按兵不动的FOMC → A股风格与行业映射",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 首席策略师 既有研究记录鹰派按兵不动的FOMC → A股风格与行业映射",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7e372a03b2e8/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "落地判定：FOMC后第一个中间价与两融真实落地后，A股+0.05x袖珍仓的绿档/冻结/回撤",
          "summary": "落地判定：FOMC后第一个中间价与两融真实落地后，A股+0.05x袖珍仓的绿档/冻结/回撤",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8765a904f460/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "A股杠铃：因子暴露、拥挤度、两融流向与盈利修正监测框架",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 作者角色： 因子研究员 · 立场： 压力测试 研究院工作日： 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c4e682b20f2d/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "P",
        "TLT",
        "IEF"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-11523cabbd",
      "title": "熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-11523cabbd/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 全球宏观：美元通过USD/CNY、JPY与carry交易的传导",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 全球宏观：美元通过USD/CNY、JPY与carry交易的传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2b421104cff1/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 — USD/CNY、CNH流动性与A股第二阶段回补否决图谱",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 — USD/CNY、CNH流动性与A股第二阶段回补否决图谱",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a6c5d3b8e66/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 美元/日元套息平仓触发图与USD/CNH传导",
          "summary": "分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 工作日期： 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） - 立场： stress-test - 问题： 在美联储鹰派按兵不动、日央行9月可能加息25bp的组合下，美元/日元在哪...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-70899b7533e5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 全球宏观研究研究记录 02：鹰派暂停对 USD/CNY 与亚洲外汇的传导",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 全球宏观研究研究记录 02：鹰派暂停对 USD/CNY 与亚洲外汇的传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ffbe3c3bce08/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-6fd1b8808d",
      "title": "资金成本上行与长端利率有锚下的A股风格轮动和金融板块配置",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 资金成本上行与长端利率有锚下的A股风格轮动和金融板块配置",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6fd1b8808d/",
      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "低利率、下半年政策组合与A股红利杠铃（工作日期2026-07-26）",
          "summary": "· Analyst: Global Macro Analyst 立场: synthesize · 工作日期: 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） 主题: 低利率与下半年政策组合能否支撑A股红利交易，煤炭/油气政策托底是否稳固？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7535af07a554/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "CNY偏强制度下的A股风格与红利行业权重 — 2026-07-26",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-26，Asia/Singapore。作者：首席策略师。立场： 综合（synthesize） ——我把既有研究记录的宏观逻辑链落地为明确的超配/标配/低配行业网格。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-67e730fb5545/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 A股策略卡：7月30日数据前维持防御型A股账本，偏向红利/自由现金流质量与低融资敏感度",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 A股策略卡：7月30日数据前维持防御型A股账本，偏向红利/自由现金流质量与低融资敏感度",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-911422a705b8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "红利袖套与K型消费篮子的A股执行边界 — 工作日 2026-07-26",
          "summary": "截至研究院工作日 2026-07-26 （Asia/Singapore），本报告对研究记录07作 综合 判断：专门A股红利袖套维持 7%，K型消费篮子维持 4%，但必须把收益beta和消费alpha硬隔离。 [自测算：输入=研究记...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d9a183b02130/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "601088.SH",
        "601398.SH",
        "600941.SH",
        "510880.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-94e0c46a69",
      "title": "USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-94e0c46a69/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7e3577f927b4/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 - USD/CNH期权对冲的执行触发与规模调整",
          "summary": "研究记录 分析师: Global Macro Analyst (global-macro) 立场: 综合 工作日期（Asia/Singapore）: 2026-07-26 根主题: 2026-07-26 - 7月FOMC与PCE/GDP密集发布窗口下的美国利率再定价 主题： US...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9cd973e968dc/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 全球宏观研究记录：20单位USD对冲应以DXY/广义美元beta加廉价事件期权表达，而非线性US...",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 全球宏观研究记录：20单位USD对冲应以DXY/广义美元beta加廉价事件期权表达，而非线性USD/CNY",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e9fce1be35c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "PBOC逆周期工具与USD/CNH 6.90封顶能力 — 工作日期2026-07-26",
          "summary": "PBOC逆周期工具与USD/CNH 6.90封顶能力 — 工作日期2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd07b851fc1a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-250964b5dc",
      "title": "强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-250964b5dc/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "summary": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cceeadc32456/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 美元/日元套息平仓触发图与USD/CNH传导",
          "summary": "分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 工作日期： 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） - 立场： stress-test - 问题： 在美联储鹰派按兵不动、日央行9月可能加息25bp的组合下，美元/日元在哪...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-70899b7533e5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7e3577f927b4/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "决定USD/CNH基准状态的三央行反应函数图谱 — 2026-07-26",
          "summary": "决定USD/CNH基准状态的三央行反应函数图谱 — 2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c4a6ca32ff3e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b13c7cf092",
      "title": "高纯石英材料受益于先进封装扩产，但兑现取决于认证与产品结构",
      "titleEn": "High-purity quartz can benefit from advanced-packaging expansion, conditional on qualification and mix",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13c7cf092/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 70,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 把\"订单可验证\"与现金流质量做成可落地的量化标准：先进封装与半导体设备的评分细则",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 把\"订单可验证\"与现金流质量做成可落地的量化标准：先进封装与半导体设备的评分细则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eaf8f117d07d/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "TMT及半导体波动率对4.7 NAV月度VaR预算的压力测试",
          "summary": "工作日期： 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） · 分析师： tmt-analyst · 研究记录 · 立场： stress-test",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c081ff2af2cb/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "“有盈利硬科技”的可行性校验：半导体设备与先进封装的利润率趋势验证",
          "summary": "截至2026-07-26，本报告对前序“有盈利硬科技”加仓逻辑做压力测试。结论是选择性支持，而不是支持宽半导体beta上调：国产半导体设备具备足够的需求能见度和利润率水平，可以承接组合里的增量成...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-883cb8d70429/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI基础设施约束是否从电力转向硅：HBM、先进封装、GPU/CPU 交付与 WFE/测试设备订单门控",
          "summary": "AI基础设施约束是否从电力转向硅：HBM、先进封装、GPU/CPU 交付与 WFE/测试设备订单门控",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c5078fd0ebb5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "NVDA",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS",
        "ASML",
        "688012.SH",
        "002916.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-bc1d8e9af8",
      "title": "Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bc1d8e9af8/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 4,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 全球宏观开局卡：7月FOMC的油价通胀冲击",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-26，Asia/Singapore。本报告由 global-macro 撰写，核心问题是：在 Federal Reserve 于 2026年7月28-29日 召开会议前，油价驱动的再定价是否足以让组合为意外加息做准备，而...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-95254fcbdf58/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 — 中国消费的K型读数，及窄复苏对7月FOMC前2026下半年再通胀路径的含义",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 — 中国消费的K型读数，及窄复苏对7月FOMC前2026下半年再通胀路径的含义",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-076509301a50/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "大类资产配置研究：7月28-30日FOMC/PCE/GDP窗口下的多资产风险预算 — 工作日期 2026-07-26",
          "summary": "大类资产配置研究：7月28-30日FOMC/PCE/GDP窗口下的多资产风险预算 — 工作日期 2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2087ef542c88/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "Warsh 新政：一个取消前瞻指引的美联储，迎接 7 月 28–29 日议息会议",
          "summary": "Warsh 新政：一个取消前瞻指引的美联储，迎接 7 月 28–29 日议息会议",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b35204d6ea81/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3cb5657bb3",
      "title": "智能驾驶供应商拐点取决于定点转量产和毛利率修复",
      "titleEn": "The smart-driving supplier inflection depends on program conversion and margin recovery",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cb5657bb3/",
      "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da",
      "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 3,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "周末深度主题扫描",
          "summary": "锚定日期：2026-07-26（shell： 系统日期锚 ）。本报告中“本周 / 过去5个交易日 / 上一交易日”均指向 2026-07-20 至 2026-07-24，除非另有注明。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fca074ba7044/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "每周研究报告研究稿：美股跨资产与宏观风险",
          "summary": "覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-20 (周一) → 2026-07-24 (周五)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-068973b0cf7c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "研究质量审查",
          "summary": "日期锚点：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-26。本审查覆盖上游文件 01 weekly plan.md 、 01 weekly plan.en.md 、 02 weekly research.md 、 02 weekly research.en.md。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-182bad74430c/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "美国股票与宏观周报研究稿",
          "summary": "今日锚点: 2026-07-26 覆盖窗口: 2026-07-20 至 2026-07-24, 5 个美国交易日 上游计划文件: 已读取 01 weekly plan.md",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c5b9006edaa9/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSLA",
        "NVDA",
        "GOOGL",
        "1274.HK",
        "002594.SZ",
        "XPEV"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-ce29facfbd",
      "title": "中国资产定价仍受政策、流动性与风险偏好共同驱动",
      "titleEn": "China asset pricing remains driven by policy, liquidity, and risk appetite",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ce29facfbd/",
      "laneId": "lane_a8d9c69ae883",
      "lane": "中国权益流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-equity-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 52,
      "supports": 4,
      "risks": 4,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 首席策略师 · 既有研究记录人民币6.70/6.65阈值下的A股哑铃分段再平衡",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 首席策略师 · 既有研究记录人民币6.70/6.65阈值下的A股哑铃分段再平衡",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9890281e683d/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "FOMC窗口前人民币区间对A股风格轮动的压力测试：2026-07-26",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-26；本地命令 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-26 [自测算: 本地 shell 日期校验]。本报告不是推翻前序结论，而是对其做压力测试：在“7月FOMC鹰派暂停”的假设下 [自测算: 当前...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-642b13e12bb3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 — USD/CNY、CNH流动性与A股第二阶段回补否决图谱",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 — USD/CNY、CNH流动性与A股第二阶段回补否决图谱",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a6c5d3b8e66/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 - 首席策略师研究记录：三种人民币路径下的A股指数袖套与行业执行清单",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 - 首席策略师研究记录：三种人民币路径下的A股指数袖套与行业执行清单",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-101a68393a0a/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "300308.SZ",
        "0700.HK",
        "9988.HK",
        "510300.SH",
        "159915.SZ",
        "300750.SZ",
        "3988.HK",
        "588000.SH",
        "LOW"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e9630d3ee1",
      "title": "日元套息平仓是 EM 科技、离岸中资与高 beta 主题的尾部流动性风险",
      "titleEn": "Yen carry unwind is a tail liquidity risk for EM tech, offshore China, and high-beta themes",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e9630d3ee1/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 52,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 5,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "日元套息阶梯下的多资产 Beta 预算与凸性对冲",
          "summary": "研究记录 04 · 作者：首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) · 工作日期：2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） 立场：synthesize 事件窗口：2026 年 7 月 28-29 日 FOMC 与 2026 年 8 月 12 日 CPI 发布...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-879ff8b511eb/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "日元套息触发图谱：无指引、更高更久强美元下无序平仓的头寸级引线",
          "summary": "研究记录 03 · 作者：全球宏观分析师 ( global-macro ) · 工作日期：2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） 立场：stress-test（压力测试研究记录 02「套息脆弱是主导传导带」的判断） 本报告承接研究...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6efc5e55d5a5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "无指引、更高更久的美联储机制：向美元、期限溢价与全球套息的传导",
          "summary": "研究记录 02 · 作者：全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日期：2026-07-26（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：压力测试（针对研究记录 01 的\"更高更久\"机制判断）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2dfe0fdf5c58/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "鹰派暂停熊陡下美元+3超配的可持有性与carry表达",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） 工作日期： 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： synthesize（综合） 主题： 杠铃中美元+3还能持有多久、应主要通过哪些货币表达（...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9e12760c9eee/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "CME",
        "CBOE",
        "LOW",
        "UUP",
        "EEM",
        "FXY",
        "EWJ",
        "MCHI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-485a630a87",
      "title": "自动驾驶与 Robotaxi 主题必须从演示热度进入单位经济和监管城市扩张验证",
      "titleEn": "Autonomous driving and robotaxi themes must move from demo excitement to unit economics and regulated city expansion",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-485a630a87/",
      "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da",
      "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 51,
      "supports": 3,
      "risks": 4,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "周末深度主题扫描",
          "summary": "锚定日期：2026-07-26（shell： 系统日期锚 ）。本报告中“本周 / 过去5个交易日 / 上一交易日”均指向 2026-07-20 至 2026-07-24，除非另有注明。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fca074ba7044/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "美国股票与宏观周报研究稿",
          "summary": "今日锚点: 2026-07-26 覆盖窗口: 2026-07-20 至 2026-07-24, 5 个美国交易日 上游计划文件: 已读取 01 weekly plan.md",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c5b9006edaa9/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "每周研究报告研究稿：美股跨资产与宏观风险",
          "summary": "覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-20 (周一) → 2026-07-24 (周五)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-068973b0cf7c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "QA 审核报告 — 周度研究包（步骤 01–02）",
          "summary": "审核人角色：研究质量主管（QA Manager） 锚定日期： 系统日期锚 = 2026-07-26；覆盖窗口 2026-07-20 → 2026-07-24。 审核对象： 01 weekly plan.md (.en)、 02 weekly research.md (.en)...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-17da4c2abd9c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GOOGL",
        "TSLA",
        "NVDA",
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "BIDU",
        "XPEV",
        "002594.SZ",
        "2015.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-740e729f22",
      "title": "人民币、美元与套息交易决定跨境风险资产的流动性折价",
      "titleEn": "RMB, USD, and carry trades define the liquidity discount across cross-border risk assets",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-740e729f22/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 47,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 5,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Warsh 转向情形下的美元与人民币传导——对\"更高更久\"美元买盘的压力测试",
          "summary": "Warsh 转向情形下的美元与人民币传导——对\"更高更久\"美元买盘的压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cab2e3066d4/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "鹰派暂停熊陡下美元+3超配的可持有性与carry表达",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） 工作日期： 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： synthesize（综合） 主题： 杠铃中美元+3还能持有多久、应主要通过哪些货币表达（...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9e12760c9eee/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 全球宏观研究记录：20单位USD对冲应以DXY/广义美元beta加廉价事件期权表达，而非线性US...",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 全球宏观研究记录：20单位USD对冲应以DXY/广义美元beta加廉价事件期权表达，而非线性USD/CNY",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e9fce1be35c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 全球宏观：美元通过USD/CNY、JPY与carry交易的传导",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 全球宏观：美元通过USD/CNY、JPY与carry交易的传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2b421104cff1/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "CME",
        "3988.HK",
        "0700.HK",
        "UUP",
        "2800.HK",
        "9988.HK",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e4e956cd41",
      "title": "通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e4e956cd41/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "summary": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cceeadc32456/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 — 7月FOMC后USD/JPY看跌价差执行结构",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-26，本报告综合前序结论：保留研究记录04的权益Beta下调，但外汇对冲应执行为不融资的普通vanilla USD/JPY下行看跌价差；向交易对手询价时可表述为JPY call/USD put...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-77ad1c6427ff/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 看跌期权 + Receiver 组合的凸性及 HFL 因子脱钩校验",
          "summary": "USD/JPY 看跌期权 + Receiver 组合的凸性及 HFL 因子脱钩校验",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-776ae48af577/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-950a54ea98",
      "title": "保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-950a54ea98/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "summary": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cceeadc32456/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 美元/日元套息平仓触发图与USD/CNH传导",
          "summary": "分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 工作日期： 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） - 立场： stress-test - 问题： 在美联储鹰派按兵不动、日央行9月可能加息25bp的组合下，美元/日元在哪...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-70899b7533e5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 全球宏观：美元通过USD/CNY、JPY与carry交易的传导",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 全球宏观：美元通过USD/CNY、JPY与carry交易的传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2b421104cff1/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a4bf9a5c22",
      "title": "在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a4bf9a5c22/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26红色态下A股风格轮动与两融定仓",
          "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师: 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) - 工作日期: 2026-07-26 (Asia/Singapore) - 立场: synthesize - 问题: 在红色态下，USD/CNH连续高于7.05、全球权益beta已砍至约0.65时...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-082bcaa69fc1/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "半导体瓶颈轮动的 A股执行时点闸门 — 2026-07-26",
          "summary": "机构工作日期：2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore）。。分析师：chief-strategist。立场：stress-test。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1f50bd1c20b5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 — 因子研究员研究记录：三套A股篮子的拥挤度与两融压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 — 因子研究员研究记录：三套A股篮子的拥挤度与两融压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-292917970dc1/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688256.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688012.SH",
        "688041.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "588000.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d74ae315e8",
      "title": "当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d74ae315e8/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 看跌期权 + Receiver 组合的凸性及 HFL 因子脱钩校验",
          "summary": "USD/JPY 看跌期权 + Receiver 组合的凸性及 HFL 因子脱钩校验",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-776ae48af577/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "把 USD/JPY 期权对冲做成可交易方案：执行价、期限、delta 与滚动规则",
          "summary": "把 USD/JPY 期权对冲做成可交易方案：执行价、期限、delta 与滚动规则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bf1240fb46f6/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "summary": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cceeadc32456/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-0011ad682c",
      "title": "美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0011ad682c/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 有序跌至 150 但未无序时的外汇凸性兑现与权益 Beta 回补规则",
          "summary": "USD/JPY 有序跌至 150 但未无序时的外汇凸性兑现与权益 Beta 回补规则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fd702bf2a8dc/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "summary": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cceeadc32456/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 看跌期权 + Receiver 组合的凸性及 HFL 因子脱钩校验",
          "summary": "USD/JPY 看跌期权 + Receiver 组合的凸性及 HFL 因子脱钩校验",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-776ae48af577/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "JPM",
        "TLT",
        "IEF"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-29b1c0d6c7",
      "title": "日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-29b1c0d6c7/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "summary": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cceeadc32456/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 看跌期权 + Receiver 组合的凸性及 HFL 因子脱钩校验",
          "summary": "USD/JPY 看跌期权 + Receiver 组合的凸性及 HFL 因子脱钩校验",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-776ae48af577/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 有序跌至 150 但未无序时的外汇凸性兑现与权益 Beta 回补规则",
          "summary": "USD/JPY 有序跌至 150 但未无序时的外汇凸性兑现与权益 Beta 回补规则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fd702bf2a8dc/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-54a65a88ba",
      "title": "请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-54a65a88ba/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7e3577f927b4/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "决定USD/CNH基准状态的三央行反应函数图谱 — 2026-07-26",
          "summary": "决定USD/CNH基准状态的三央行反应函数图谱 — 2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c4a6ca32ff3e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 美元/日元套息平仓触发图与USD/CNH传导",
          "summary": "分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 工作日期： 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） - 立场： stress-test - 问题： 在美联储鹰派按兵不动、日央行9月可能加息25bp的组合下，美元/日元在哪...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-70899b7533e5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "UUP",
        "FXI",
        "2800.HK"
      ]
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    {
      "id": "thesis-f9ce8d294d",
      "title": "人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f9ce8d294d/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "无指引、更高更久的美联储机制：向美元、期限溢价与全球套息的传导",
          "summary": "研究记录 02 · 作者：全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日期：2026-07-26（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：压力测试（针对研究记录 01 的\"更高更久\"机制判断）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2dfe0fdf5c58/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 美元/日元套息平仓触发图与USD/CNH传导",
          "summary": "分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 工作日期： 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） - 立场： stress-test - 问题： 在美联储鹰派按兵不动、日央行9月可能加息25bp的组合下，美元/日元在哪...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-70899b7533e5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7e3577f927b4/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0",
      "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层",
      "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/",
      "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a",
      "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "超大规模厂商资本开支承载力压力测试",
          "summary": "· AI基础设施分析师 · 工作日期：2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） 主题： MSFT/Meta/Amazon能否在不打开SPV/信用利差渠道的前提下承载2026年AI资本开支？ 立场： 对前序研究做压力测试。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8d9a0890eaa5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI基础设施约束是否从电力转向硅：HBM、先进封装、GPU/CPU 交付与 WFE/测试设备订单门控",
          "summary": "AI基础设施约束是否从电力转向硅：HBM、先进封装、GPU/CPU 交付与 WFE/测试设备订单门控",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c5078fd0ebb5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "H2 2026 订单可验证芯片需求：CoWoS 与 HBM 订单是资金锁定，还是仅靠 capex 口径支撑的软承诺？",
          "summary": "H2 2026 订单可验证芯片需求：CoWoS 与 HBM 订单是资金锁定，还是仅靠 capex 口径支撑的软承诺？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9bb98fed5574/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "NVDA",
        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL",
        "TSM",
        "AVGO",
        "AAPL",
        "TSLA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d1f5e35b43",
      "title": "2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d1f5e35b43/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-26 全球宏观压力测试：NVIDIA 枢纽脆弱性会演化为系统性信用事件吗？",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-26 全球宏观压力测试：NVIDIA 枢纽脆弱性会演化为系统性信用事件吗？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0ef75c100eb8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "NVIDIA 作为 AI 供应链承销方：枢纽能否持续为整条链条融资，还是只是把 BofA 担忧的系统性信用风...",
          "summary": "NVIDIA 作为 AI 供应链承销方：枢纽能否持续为整条链条融资，还是只是把 BofA 担忧的系统性信用风险集中到单一节点？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-49731b962213/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "H2 2026 订单可验证芯片需求：CoWoS 与 HBM 订单是资金锁定，还是仅靠 capex 口径支撑的软承诺？",
          "summary": "H2 2026 订单可验证芯片需求：CoWoS 与 HBM 订单是资金锁定，还是仅靠 capex 口径支撑的软承诺？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9bb98fed5574/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b6f59efde4",
      "title": "包装油占比与原料顺价驱动利润率修复",
      "titleEn": "Packaged-oil mix and input-cost pass-through drive margin recovery",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b6f59efde4/",
      "laneId": "lane_13d7ced85300",
      "lane": "食品加工/成本传导",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-processing-and-input-cost-transmission/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股策略：消费K型下调味品与大众品的配置映射 — 工作日 2026-07-26",
          "summary": "A股策略：消费K型下调味品与大众品的配置映射 — 工作日 2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-18517dc2d8f9/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "认证型预制 / 复合调味品的量能韧性 — 工作日 2026-07-26",
          "summary": "截至机构工作日 2026-07-26，我的判断是有条件支持：认证型预制 / 复合调味品可以在特定场景维持销量，但无法重建调味品大类的普遍定价权。量能逻辑最强的场景是连锁餐饮、预制食品加工和重视信...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b176c0dccaa2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "大众品 / 调味品代理篮子的A股落地与再平衡触发",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-26，Asia/Singapore。 本报告综合前序结论：认证型复合调味品与相邻大众品的终端韧性真实存在，但投资含义是K型、量/结构/成本驱动，而不是广谱定价权恢复。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bb88115ddf6e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "001215.SZ",
        "600298.SH",
        "603027.SH",
        "300973.SZ",
        "603317.SH",
        "002852.SZ",
        "002847.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4e383ee09c",
      "title": "2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4e383ee09c/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "研究记录 07 2026-07-26 hyperscaler capex、800G/1.6T交付节奏与客户集中度能否重新支撑+3/+4pp光...",
          "summary": "研究记录 07 2026-07-26 hyperscaler capex、800G/1.6T交付节奏与客户集中度能否重新支撑+3/+4pp光模块超配？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5b51c0bd1e7f/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI基础设施约束是否从电力转向硅：HBM、先进封装、GPU/CPU 交付与 WFE/测试设备订单门控",
          "summary": "AI基础设施约束是否从电力转向硅：HBM、先进封装、GPU/CPU 交付与 WFE/测试设备订单门控",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c5078fd0ebb5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "H2 2026 订单可验证芯片需求：CoWoS 与 HBM 订单是资金锁定，还是仅靠 capex 口径支撑的软承诺？",
          "summary": "H2 2026 订单可验证芯片需求：CoWoS 与 HBM 订单是资金锁定，还是仅靠 capex 口径支撑的软承诺？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9bb98fed5574/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-be91bfe6ee",
      "title": "高纯石英材料需求需由先进封装订单验证",
      "titleEn": "High-purity quartz demand requires validation from advanced-packaging orders",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-be91bfe6ee/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 63,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 把\"订单可验证\"与现金流质量做成可落地的量化标准：先进封装与半导体设备的评分细则",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 把\"订单可验证\"与现金流质量做成可落地的量化标准：先进封装与半导体设备的评分细则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eaf8f117d07d/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI基础设施约束是否从电力转向硅：HBM、先进封装、GPU/CPU 交付与 WFE/测试设备订单门控",
          "summary": "AI基础设施约束是否从电力转向硅：HBM、先进封装、GPU/CPU 交付与 WFE/测试设备订单门控",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c5078fd0ebb5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "“有盈利硬科技”的可行性校验：半导体设备与先进封装的利润率趋势验证",
          "summary": "截至2026-07-26，本报告对前序“有盈利硬科技”加仓逻辑做压力测试。结论是选择性支持，而不是支持宽半导体beta上调：国产半导体设备具备足够的需求能见度和利润率水平，可以承接组合里的增量成...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-883cb8d70429/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "NVDA",
        "000660.KS",
        "688012.SH",
        "MU",
        "ASML",
        "002916.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f5d7a79c82",
      "title": "HBM4、CoWoS 与背面供电正在成为 AI 服务器需求曲线的串行闸门",
      "titleEn": "HBM4, CoWoS, and backside power are becoming serial gates for the AI-server demand curve",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5d7a79c82/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 62,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI基础设施约束是否从电力转向硅：HBM、先进封装、GPU/CPU 交付与 WFE/测试设备订单门控",
          "summary": "AI基础设施约束是否从电力转向硅：HBM、先进封装、GPU/CPU 交付与 WFE/测试设备订单门控",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c5078fd0ebb5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "H2 2026 订单可验证芯片需求：CoWoS 与 HBM 订单是资金锁定，还是仅靠 capex 口径支撑的软承诺？",
          "summary": "H2 2026 订单可验证芯片需求：CoWoS 与 HBM 订单是资金锁定，还是仅靠 capex 口径支撑的软承诺？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9bb98fed5574/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "NVIDIA 作为 AI 供应链承销方：枢纽能否持续为整条链条融资，还是只是把 BofA 担忧的系统性信用风...",
          "summary": "NVIDIA 作为 AI 供应链承销方：枢纽能否持续为整条链条融资，还是只是把 BofA 担忧的系统性信用风险集中到单一节点？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-49731b962213/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "000660.KS",
        "MU",
        "AMD",
        "META",
        "AVGO",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "ASML"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-741d1d6f34",
      "title": "地产、土地财政与 REITs 是中国信用底的慢变量",
      "titleEn": "Property, land finance, and REITs are the slow variables behind China's credit floor",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-741d1d6f34/",
      "laneId": "lane_5c8ea9f78210",
      "lane": "地产信用底/REITs",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-property-credit-floor-and-reits/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 61,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "房地产周度研究报告 · 研究稿",
          "summary": "日期锚点：2026-07-26。 本稿所有“本周、上周、上一交易日”均按本地 shell 日期倒推。覆盖窗口为 2026-07-20 至 2026-07-24；高频销售与土地数据采用截至发稿时可核验的最新完整周度表，即中...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4f52848737a7/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "地产链折价解除阈值：一次压力测试 — 2026-07-26",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-26，Asia/Singapore。分析师： realestate-analyst。研究记录。立场： 压力测试（stress-test）。主题：A股地产链的折价解除阈值。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-698ec1fca2a7/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "H2-2026 A股风格 / 利率 / 流动性背景，对深度价值+反转+选择性消费倾斜的支撑度",
          "summary": "H2-2026 A股风格 / 利率 / 流动性背景，对深度价值+反转+选择性消费倾斜的支撑度",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-16c0b7870017/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
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      "stockTickers": [
        "1109.HK",
        "600048.SH",
        "001979.SZ",
        "0960.HK",
        "0688.HK",
        "000002.SZ",
        "0823.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-241377c8be",
      "title": "显示材料改善需由利润率与现金流共同确认",
      "titleEn": "Display-material recovery requires joint margin and cash-flow confirmation",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-241377c8be/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 59,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "“有盈利硬科技”的可行性校验：半导体设备与先进封装的利润率趋势验证",
          "summary": "截至2026-07-26，本报告对前序“有盈利硬科技”加仓逻辑做压力测试。结论是选择性支持，而不是支持宽半导体beta上调：国产半导体设备具备足够的需求能见度和利润率水平，可以承接组合里的增量成...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-883cb8d70429/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "TMT及半导体波动率对4.7 NAV月度VaR预算的压力测试",
          "summary": "工作日期： 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） · 分析师： tmt-analyst · 研究记录 · 立场： stress-test",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c081ff2af2cb/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 把\"订单可验证\"与现金流质量做成可落地的量化标准：先进封装与半导体设备的评分细则",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 把\"订单可验证\"与现金流质量做成可落地的量化标准：先进封装与半导体设备的评分细则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eaf8f117d07d/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "NVDA",
        "ASML",
        "000660.KS",
        "MU",
        "002916.SZ",
        "600552.SH"
      ]
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    {
      "id": "thesis-21dd72c1b1",
      "title": "航空航天与国防供应链错配正在形成政策驱动的制造业弹性",
      "titleEn": "Aerospace and defense supply-chain mismatch is creating policy-driven manufacturing beta",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-21dd72c1b1/",
      "laneId": "lane_1514a60f727a",
      "lane": "国防航空航天供应链",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/defense-and-aerospace-supply-chain/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 55,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "工业制造周报研究",
          "summary": "日期锚点： 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-26。本报告覆盖最近已完成交易周： 2026-07-20 至 2026-07-24；价格收益以 2026-07-17 收盘至 2026-07-24 收盘计算，除非明确标注数据滞后。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-73950779e2f5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "§0 YAML HEADER",
          "summary": "日期锚点： 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-26。本报告覆盖最近已完成交易周： 2026-07-20 至 2026-07-24；价格收益以 2026-07-17 收盘至 2026-07-24 收盘计算，除非明确标注数据滞后。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-812af6e8c9c9/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "工业制造周报 QA Review",
          "summary": "日期锚点： 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-26。本次 QA 覆盖上游文件 01 weekly plan.md 、 01 weekly plan.en.md 、 02 weekly research.md 、 02 weekly research.en.md；工作区内四份文件均存...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b0f3b9983ccd/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "LMT",
        "RTX",
        "NOC",
        "RKLB",
        "BA",
        "CAT",
        "IRDM",
        "ASTS",
        "HWM"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d1c60d5af6",
      "title": "纺织服装出口链的 Alpha 取决于棉价、库存周期、品牌折扣与合规转移",
      "titleEn": "Textile and apparel export alpha depends on cotton, inventory cycles, brand discounting, and compliance relocation",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d1c60d5af6/",
      "laneId": "lane_856b47b8b1d9",
      "lane": "纺织服装/出口库存周期",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/textile-apparel-export-and-inventory-cycle/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 38,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股纺织服装中游链主：估值重估与组合权重",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师：chief-strategist · 工作日期：2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore）[S0] · 立场：synthesize",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-106bd4726a66/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "美越20%/40%关税架构与中国-东盟-美国纺织链重塑",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师：global-macro · 工作日期：2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore）[S0] · 立场：synthesize",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d60220997628/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 研究记录03：设施清单执法与中国纺织中间品风险",
          "summary": "截至研究院工作日2026-07-26，本报告综合并支持前序判断，但进一步收窄结论：40%转运规则不是对中国纱线和面料的一刀切禁令，而是对越南、柬埔寨、孟加拉供应链中证明能力最弱的中国投入品环节...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e81110174839/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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        "002003.SZ",
        "603558.SH",
        "603889.SH",
        "300979.SZ",
        "300577.SZ",
        "2313.HK",
        "603055.SH",
        "LULU"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f23572dfb8",
      "title": "Advance th_p_2ca41751 (能源价格冲突引发的全球通胀路径分化): 若 Brent 在停火提案与航运威胁之间维持 85…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Advance th_p_2ca41751 (能源价格冲突引发的全球通胀路径分化): 若 Brent 在停火提案与航运威胁之间维持 85…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f23572dfb8/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "红海石油冲击与被逼入墙角的 Warsh 联储：6 月的通胀降温只是能源\"假动作\"",
          "summary": "红海石油冲击与被逼入墙角的 Warsh 联储：6 月的通胀降温只是能源\"假动作\"",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-85d22cdde4b3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "能源研究片 — 2026-07-26 — Brent战争溢价与成品油紧张",
          "summary": "能源研究片 — 2026-07-26 — Brent战争溢价与成品油紧张",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a0a0366ab619/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "0857.HK",
        "SLB"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-4f541b33ff",
      "title": "美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f541b33ff/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "summary": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cceeadc32456/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 美元/日元套息平仓触发图与USD/CNH传导",
          "summary": "分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 工作日期： 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） - 立场： stress-test - 问题： 在美联储鹰派按兵不动、日央行9月可能加息25bp的组合下，美元/日元在哪...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-70899b7533e5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4b64fc19f4",
      "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b64fc19f4/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY破位下的A股高股息防御与股指期货对冲执行",
          "summary": "分析师： chief-strategist（首席策略师）· 研究记录 工作日期： 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore）· 立场： synthesize 本地工作区说明： 实时工作区缺少 研究档案 、 analyst-catalog.j...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a182b42ece50/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "summary": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cceeadc32456/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d03c2555a8",
      "title": "美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d03c2555a8/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "低利率、下半年政策组合与A股红利杠铃（工作日期2026-07-26）",
          "summary": "· Analyst: Global Macro Analyst 立场: synthesize · 工作日期: 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） 主题: 低利率与下半年政策组合能否支撑A股红利交易，煤炭/油气政策托底是否稳固？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7535af07a554/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 — 燃油价格回落后，哪些A股消费细分真正完成需求转化，哪些仍只是政策预期",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 — 燃油价格回落后，哪些A股消费细分真正完成需求转化，哪些仍只是政策预期",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5039f0f531dd/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "SLB",
        "OXY"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f0b8d44918",
      "title": "美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f0b8d44918/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 — USD/CNY、CNH流动性与A股第二阶段回补否决图谱",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 — USD/CNY、CNH流动性与A股第二阶段回补否决图谱",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a6c5d3b8e66/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY破位下的A股高股息防御与股指期货对冲执行",
          "summary": "分析师： chief-strategist（首席策略师）· 研究记录 工作日期： 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore）· 立场： synthesize 本地工作区说明： 实时工作区缺少 研究档案 、 analyst-catalog.j...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a182b42ece50/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-03dab97a77",
      "title": "人民币稳定使当前应保留滞胀杠铃，但用黄金、久期与轻USD对冲把组合从单一A股Beta改造成可按黄/红档汇率阶梯再平衡的跨资产防御组合。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币稳定使当前应保留滞胀杠铃，但用黄金、久期与轻USD对冲把组合从单一A股Beta改造成可按黄/红档汇率阶梯再平衡的跨资产防御组合。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-03dab97a77/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 — USD/CNY、CNH流动性与A股第二阶段回补否决图谱",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 — USD/CNY、CNH流动性与A股第二阶段回补否决图谱",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a6c5d3b8e66/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7e3577f927b4/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-eefbf1a467",
      "title": "中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-eefbf1a467/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 全球宏观研究研究记录 02：鹰派暂停对 USD/CNY 与亚洲外汇的传导",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 全球宏观研究研究记录 02：鹰派暂停对 USD/CNY 与亚洲外汇的传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ffbe3c3bce08/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 全球宏观：美元通过USD/CNY、JPY与carry交易的传导",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 全球宏观：美元通过USD/CNY、JPY与carry交易的传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2b421104cff1/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3cafa5bcd5",
      "title": "在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cafa5bcd5/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 — USD/CNY、CNH流动性与A股第二阶段回补否决图谱",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 — USD/CNY、CNH流动性与A股第二阶段回补否决图谱",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a6c5d3b8e66/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "FOMC窗口前人民币区间对A股风格轮动的压力测试：2026-07-26",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-26；本地命令 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-26 [自测算: 本地 shell 日期校验]。本报告不是推翻前序结论，而是对其做压力测试：在“7月FOMC鹰派暂停”的假设下 [自测算: 当前...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-642b13e12bb3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-fe66302bd9",
      "title": "美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fe66302bd9/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 全球宏观：美元通过USD/CNY、JPY与carry交易的传导",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 全球宏观：美元通过USD/CNY、JPY与carry交易的传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2b421104cff1/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7e3577f927b4/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-859ab241bf",
      "title": "依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-859ab241bf/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "“有盈利硬科技”的可行性校验：半导体设备与先进封装的利润率趋势验证",
          "summary": "截至2026-07-26，本报告对前序“有盈利硬科技”加仓逻辑做压力测试。结论是选择性支持，而不是支持宽半导体beta上调：国产半导体设备具备足够的需求能见度和利润率水平，可以承接组合里的增量成...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-883cb8d70429/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 把\"订单可验证\"与现金流质量做成可落地的量化标准：先进封装与半导体设备的评分细则",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 把\"订单可验证\"与现金流质量做成可落地的量化标准：先进封装与半导体设备的评分细则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eaf8f117d07d/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "NVDA",
        "ASML",
        "688012.SH",
        "000660.KS",
        "MU",
        "002916.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-27c1e713e6",
      "title": "日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-27c1e713e6/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 看跌期权 + Receiver 组合的凸性及 HFL 因子脱钩校验",
          "summary": "USD/JPY 看跌期权 + Receiver 组合的凸性及 HFL 因子脱钩校验",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-776ae48af577/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "summary": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cceeadc32456/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3bf2a3ec55",
      "title": "请先统一事实读数与压力情景：CNH HIBOR 12.00%和USD/JPY 162.18应否进入今日基准？若仅为情景，A股β≈0.28…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请先统一事实读数与压力情景：CNH HIBOR 12.00%和USD/JPY 162.18应否进入今日基准？若仅为情景，A股β≈0.28…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3bf2a3ec55/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "summary": "FOMC与BOJ会议后的触发线：USD/CNH与USD/JPY信号组合何时把默认矩阵切出状态A，2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cceeadc32456/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY破位下的A股高股息防御与股指期货对冲执行",
          "summary": "分析师： chief-strategist（首席策略师）· 研究记录 工作日期： 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore）· 立场： synthesize 本地工作区说明： 实时工作区缺少 研究档案 、 analyst-catalog.j...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a182b42ece50/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3156277f22",
      "title": "哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3156277f22/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 美元/日元套息平仓触发图与USD/CNH传导",
          "summary": "分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 工作日期： 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） - 立场： stress-test - 问题： 在美联储鹰派按兵不动、日央行9月可能加息25bp的组合下，美元/日元在哪...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-70899b7533e5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7e3577f927b4/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-db003202fc",
      "title": "国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db003202fc/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7e3577f927b4/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "PBOC逆周期工具与USD/CNH 6.90封顶能力 — 工作日期2026-07-26",
          "summary": "PBOC逆周期工具与USD/CNH 6.90封顶能力 — 工作日期2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd07b851fc1a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-662985737d",
      "title": "在12% HIBOR极端挤空及离岸流动性收紧传导下，将USD/CNH期权套保释放的5374万人民币全额转配至离岸存款以锁定12%高息Ca…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在12% HIBOR极端挤空及离岸流动性收紧传导下，将USD/CNH期权套保释放的5374万人民币全额转配至离岸存款以锁定12%高息Ca…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-662985737d/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 - USD/CNH期权对冲的执行触发与规模调整",
          "summary": "研究记录 分析师: Global Macro Analyst (global-macro) 立场: 综合 工作日期（Asia/Singapore）: 2026-07-26 根主题: 2026-07-26 - 7月FOMC与PCE/GDP密集发布窗口下的美国利率再定价 主题： US...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9cd973e968dc/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7e3577f927b4/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-7a72c14c0e",
      "title": "离岸收紧目前更可能触发局部高拥挤板块去杠杆，而非A股全市场两融踩踏；红利低波守底仓，资源股只做流动性凸性腿。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 离岸收紧目前更可能触发局部高拥挤板块去杠杆，而非A股全市场两融踩踏；红利低波守底仓，资源股只做流动性凸性腿。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a72c14c0e/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 — USD/CNY、CNH流动性与A股第二阶段回补否决图谱",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 — USD/CNY、CNH流动性与A股第二阶段回补否决图谱",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a6c5d3b8e66/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 软人民币斜率与两融防守线下的A股风格摆位",
          "summary": "工作日期： 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） - 分析师： 首席策略师（chief-strategist） - · 立场： synthesize - 主题： 在人民币从6.78有序走向约6.90、以及A股两融2.86万亿元防守线附近，决...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-695445d870b8/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "9988.HK",
        "0700.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b13b8604a5",
      "title": "美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13b8604a5/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "日元套息触发图谱：无指引、更高更久强美元下无序平仓的头寸级引线",
          "summary": "研究记录 03 · 作者：全球宏观分析师 ( global-macro ) · 工作日期：2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） 立场：stress-test（压力测试研究记录 02「套息脆弱是主导传导带」的判断） 本报告承接研究...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6efc5e55d5a5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 美元/日元套息平仓触发图与USD/CNH传导",
          "summary": "分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 工作日期： 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） - 立场： stress-test - 问题： 在美联储鹰派按兵不动、日央行9月可能加息25bp的组合下，美元/日元在哪...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-70899b7533e5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "KWEB",
        "FXY"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-612f83a611",
      "title": "地缘原油冲击导致的通胀传导（推升核心PCE至4.16%）将促使无前瞻指引的沃什美联储通过在9月和年底连续加息两次（至4.00%–4.25…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘原油冲击导致的通胀传导（推升核心PCE至4.16%）将促使无前瞻指引的沃什美联储通过在9月和年底连续加息两次（至4.00%–4.25…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-612f83a611/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 — 中国消费的K型读数，及窄复苏对7月FOMC前2026下半年再通胀路径的含义",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 — 中国消费的K型读数，及窄复苏对7月FOMC前2026下半年再通胀路径的含义",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-076509301a50/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "大类资产配置研究：7月28-30日FOMC/PCE/GDP窗口下的多资产风险预算 — 工作日期 2026-07-26",
          "summary": "大类资产配置研究：7月28-30日FOMC/PCE/GDP窗口下的多资产风险预算 — 工作日期 2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2087ef542c88/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
        "0883.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a119a01ce4",
      "title": "评估AI算力能耗增长对电力与电网瓶颈的影响，以及能源成本压力如何传导至下游CXO产业链。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 评估AI算力能耗增长对电力与电网瓶颈的影响，以及能源成本压力如何传导至下游CXO产业链。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a119a01ce4/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "削减TMT权益Beta后，AI基础设施需求（算力/电力）敞口的替代路径评估",
          "summary": "削减TMT权益Beta后，AI基础设施需求（算力/电力）敞口的替代路径评估",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99d34fd2f799/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 AI基础设施压力测试：电力、电网瓶颈与AI资本开支左翼",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 AI基础设施压力测试：电力、电网瓶颈与AI资本开支左翼",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a18c7853feec/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "VST",
        "002028.SZ",
        "CEG",
        "601179.SH",
        "600089.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-89c14497ac",
      "title": "期权伽马、ETF 与尾盘流动性正在放大主题交易的微观结构风险",
      "titleEn": "Options gamma, ETFs, and closing liquidity are amplifying microstructure risk in theme trades",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-89c14497ac/",
      "laneId": "lane_2ba2ee6db1ee",
      "lane": "期权伽马/市场微观结构",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/options-gamma-and-market-microstructure/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 62,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 — 压力测试\"避免空gamma\"的能源看涨价差：目标价已到位，而尾部落在空腿之上",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 — 压力测试\"避免空gamma\"的能源看涨价差：目标价已到位，而尾部落在空腿之上",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8436f80dccd4/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "A股去杠杆对冲压力测试： IM / IC 期货 vs MO /ETF期权，2026-07-26",
          "summary": "A股去杠杆对冲压力测试： IM / IC 期货 vs MO /ETF期权，2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f49d363fbbae/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "CBOE",
        "CME",
        "HOOD",
        "IBKR",
        "VIRT",
        "VIXY"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-66eb42380e",
      "title": "海洋经济的政策催化需要落到船舶订单、海工装备与海上资源现金流",
      "titleEn": "Marine-economy policy support must convert into ship orders, offshore equipment, and offshore-resource cash flow",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-66eb42380e/",
      "laneId": "lane_f8b4918fe5b3",
      "lane": "海洋经济/船舶海工",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/marine-economy-shipbuilding-and-offshore-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 53,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "海工装备产业链调研队列 - 2026-07-26",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日 2026-07-26，本报告对既有的海工装备、船舶制造、工业机械三条内部线索做综合延展，不重复复述；重新打开该产业链的直接原因，是近 30 日仅激活 6/112 张卡、激活率 5.4%，覆...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3d040b8ba018/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "研究记录 03 策略报告：海工装备杠铃仓位与催化剂门控，2026-07-26",
          "summary": "研究记录 03 策略报告：海工装备杠铃仓位与催化剂门控，2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b0d6f0211500/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "601890.SH",
        "600150.SH",
        "600938.SH",
        "600583.SH",
        "603727.SH",
        "000039.SZ",
        "0883.HK",
        "300589.SZ",
        "601919.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-9a860a8801",
      "title": "信用再融资压力正在把利率风险转化为资产负债表筛选",
      "titleEn": "Credit refinancing pressure is turning rate risk into balance-sheet selection",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a860a8801/",
      "laneId": "lane_b29e1d216a21",
      "lane": "信用再融资/私募信贷",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/credit-refinancing-and-private-debt/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 52,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-26 全球宏观压力测试：NVIDIA 枢纽脆弱性会演化为系统性信用事件吗？",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-26 全球宏观压力测试：NVIDIA 枢纽脆弱性会演化为系统性信用事件吗？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0ef75c100eb8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "前端高企的熊市陡峭化下，银行净息差真的能扩张吗？",
          "summary": "研究记录 作者: 金融行业分析师 ( financials-analyst ) 立场: 压力测试 工作日: 2026-07-26 (Asia/Singapore) [S0] 根主题: 六月CPI降温后，美联储反应函数重估 主题： 银行净息差能否支撑金融...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b86ff4cd382b/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "KRE",
        "JPM",
        "META",
        "BX",
        "ARES",
        "KKR",
        "APO"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d6b2c23ed6",
      "title": "航运与物流成本是油价、关税和供应链再通胀的二阶传导器",
      "titleEn": "Shipping and logistics costs are a second-order transmission channel for oil, tariffs, and supply-chain reflation",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d6b2c23ed6/",
      "laneId": "lane_79a55cd8530e",
      "lane": "航运物流/再通胀传导",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/shipping-logistics-and-reflation-transmission/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 44,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 前序研究：点燃价值／能源倾斜的红海／霍尔木兹油价脉冲能持续多久",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 前序研究：点燃价值／能源倾斜的红海／霍尔木兹油价脉冲能持续多久",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-983d8fa8d984/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "研究报告：2026-07-26",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-26，我对前序逻辑链做压力测试，并只支持有条件版本的油价风险判断：Brent可以进入105-110美元/桶区间，但最可信的驱动不是OPEC+主动再度收紧，而是霍尔木兹海峡与曼德...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c72739668588/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
        "601919.SH",
        "1919.HK",
        "ZIM",
        "MATX",
        "600026.SH",
        "600018.SH",
        "BOAT"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-07b4ef2695",
      "title": "地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-07b4ef2695/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "低利率、下半年政策组合与A股红利杠铃（工作日期2026-07-26）",
          "summary": "· Analyst: Global Macro Analyst 立场: synthesize · 工作日期: 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） 主题: 低利率与下半年政策组合能否支撑A股红利交易，煤炭/油气政策托底是否稳固？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7535af07a554/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "CVX",
        "XOM"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-9a926eda26",
      "title": "本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…",
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      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "强人民币环境下电力与运营商红利对冲有效性压力测试",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师：utilities-analyst · 工作日期：2026-07-26（亚洲/新加坡）[S0] · 立场：stress-test（压力测试）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6850b67b514a/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "600905.SH",
        "DUK"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-a60b131c8c",
      "title": "面对4.2%的总体CPI与108美元的布伦特原油，新任主席沃什将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上如何调整点阵图与政策立场？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 面对4.2%的总体CPI与108美元的布伦特原油，新任主席沃什将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上如何调整点阵图与政策立场？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a60b131c8c/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-27 宏观研究记录：油价回落能否撤销7月FOMC鹰派风险？",
          "summary": "2026-07-27 宏观研究记录：油价回落能否撤销7月FOMC鹰派风险？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c267aef5a1d4/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "OXY",
        "0883.HK"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-86be10e7fb",
      "title": "为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-86be10e7fb/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 — USD/CNY、CNH流动性与A股第二阶段回补否决图谱",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 — USD/CNY、CNH流动性与A股第二阶段回补否决图谱",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a6c5d3b8e66/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "CVX",
        "XOM"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-0e8748c14f",
      "title": "科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e8748c14f/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26红色态下A股风格轮动与两融定仓",
          "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师: 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) - 工作日期: 2026-07-26 (Asia/Singapore) - 立场: synthesize - 问题: 在红色态下，USD/CNH连续高于7.05、全球权益beta已砍至约0.65时...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-082bcaa69fc1/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "688012.SH"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-dfa08317f5",
      "title": "博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-dfa08317f5/",
      "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956",
      "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 — 因子研究员研究记录：三套A股篮子的拥挤度与两融压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 — 因子研究员研究记录：三套A股篮子的拥挤度与两融压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-292917970dc1/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "300394.SZ",
        "300502.SZ"
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      "id": "thesis-f62e29bf1c",
      "title": "在SpaceX将于6月12日进行股权交易且美债高企下，太空经济是否已告别散户概念炒作，转向由SpaceX价格伞、国防合同与垂直整合总装定…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在SpaceX将于6月12日进行股权交易且美债高企下，太空经济是否已告别散户概念炒作，转向由SpaceX价格伞、国防合同与垂直整合总装定…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f62e29bf1c/",
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      "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/",
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      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 A股硬科技/AI期权仓位的AI基础设施压力测试 [S0]",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 A股硬科技/AI期权仓位的AI基础设施压力测试 [S0]",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c66a0ca8dcad/",
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        "RKLB",
        "ASTS",
        "RDW",
        "300762.SZ",
        "LUNR"
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      "id": "thesis-8ca3d181f3",
      "title": "能源价格重心的下移提供了一次缓和全球“滞胀”压力的正向供给冲击，虽然成功消解了美欧央行的强行加息风险，但在低储蓄率、物流滞后与-273…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源价格重心的下移提供了一次缓和全球“滞胀”压力的正向供给冲击，虽然成功消解了美欧央行的强行加息风险，但在低储蓄率、物流滞后与-273…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8ca3d181f3/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "大类资产配置研究：7月28-30日FOMC/PCE/GDP窗口下的多资产风险预算 — 工作日期 2026-07-26",
          "summary": "大类资产配置研究：7月28-30日FOMC/PCE/GDP窗口下的多资产风险预算 — 工作日期 2026-07-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2087ef542c88/",
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      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-5be4c31f4e",
      "title": "6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5be4c31f4e/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "无指引、更高更久的美联储机制：向美元、期限溢价与全球套息的传导",
          "summary": "研究记录 02 · 作者：全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日期：2026-07-26（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：压力测试（针对研究记录 01 的\"更高更久\"机制判断）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2dfe0fdf5c58/",
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      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-594ba5e705",
      "title": "在中美利差走阔且输入型AI信用冲击升级的情形下，USD/CNY能否守住6.85缓冲翻转线",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在中美利差走阔且输入型AI信用冲击升级的情形下，USD/CNY能否守住6.85缓冲翻转线",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-594ba5e705/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 — USD/CNY、CNH流动性与A股第二阶段回补否决图谱",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 — USD/CNY、CNH流动性与A股第二阶段回补否决图谱",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a6c5d3b8e66/",
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      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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      "id": "thesis-97f10202a2",
      "title": "中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-97f10202a2/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 全球宏观：美元通过USD/CNY、JPY与carry交易的传导",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 全球宏观：美元通过USD/CNY、JPY与carry交易的传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2b421104cff1/",
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-57faae4252",
      "title": "能源供应约束对AI基础设施资本开支效率的影响：电力缺口能否支撑超大规模厂商的扩容预期？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源供应约束对AI基础设施资本开支效率的影响：电力缺口能否支撑超大规模厂商的扩容预期？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-57faae4252/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 AI基础设施压力测试：电力、电网瓶颈与AI资本开支左翼",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 AI基础设施压力测试：电力、电网瓶颈与AI资本开支左翼",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a18c7853feec/",
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "ETN",
        "VST",
        "CEG",
        "002028.SZ",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-91cfb3e0f8",
      "title": "外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-91cfb3e0f8/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 - 信用风险传导压测：LGFV 与地产债压力会否击穿大型银行拨备覆盖率与分红能力",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 - 信用风险传导压测：LGFV 与地产债压力会否击穿大型银行拨备覆盖率与分红能力",
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      "id": "thesis-e12bcc0d59",
      "title": "PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构",
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      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
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        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 — USD/CNY、CNH流动性与A股第二阶段回补否决图谱",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 — USD/CNY、CNH流动性与A股第二阶段回补否决图谱",
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      "id": "thesis-2aa156c4c9",
      "title": "2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。",
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      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 全球宏观：美元通过USD/CNY、JPY与carry交易的传导",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 全球宏观：美元通过USD/CNY、JPY与carry交易的传导",
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      "id": "thesis-a7f43e67af",
      "title": "在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？",
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      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
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          "title": "红海石油冲击与被逼入墙角的 Warsh 联储：6 月的通胀降温只是能源\"假动作\"",
          "summary": "红海石油冲击与被逼入墙角的 Warsh 联储：6 月的通胀降温只是能源\"假动作\"",
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      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-56d9baf47d/",
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      "eventCount": 1,
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          "title": "2026-07-26 global-macro 六月CPI之后的美联储反应函数",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 global-macro 六月CPI之后的美联储反应函数",
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      "id": "thesis-9cd2a72630",
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      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…",
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      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Warsh 新政：一个取消前瞻指引的美联储，迎接 7 月 28–29 日议息会议",
          "summary": "Warsh 新政：一个取消前瞻指引的美联储，迎接 7 月 28–29 日议息会议",
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "TLT",
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      "id": "thesis-da665e3ee7",
      "title": "在2026-06-26，中国约1.73%的国债收益率托底机制在Warsh强美元政策与三季度2-5万亿地方债/国债供给冲击下不可持续，国债…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-26，中国约1.73%的国债收益率托底机制在Warsh强美元政策与三季度2-5万亿地方债/国债供给冲击下不可持续，国债…",
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      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 美元/日元套息平仓触发图与USD/CNH传导",
          "summary": "分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 工作日期： 2026-07-26（Asia/Singapore） - 立场： stress-test - 问题： 在美联储鹰派按兵不动、日央行9月可能加息25bp的组合下，美元/日元在哪...",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-7b4a91628c",
      "title": "掉期成本翻正使 USD/CNH 远期曲线倒挂，远期由套保工具变为贬值信号；越过 3M CNH HIBOR ≈ 5.3% 拐点后，央行流动…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 掉期成本翻正使 USD/CNH 远期曲线倒挂，远期由套保工具变为贬值信号；越过 3M CNH HIBOR ≈ 5.3% 拐点后，央行流动…",
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      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 策略卡：PBoC 反应函数天花板下做多 USD/CNH 尾部与人民币敏感名的规模与对冲比例",
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      "title": "NAND价格与产品组合驱动SanDisk盈利弹性",
      "titleEn": "NAND pricing and mix drive SanDisk earnings leverage",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d0faeae7f0/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
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      "conviction": 72,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究研究报告 - 工作日 2026-07-26",
          "summary": "首段日期锚：本报告按研究院权威工作日 2026-07-26 撰写。本报告对 th p 7b6f80e6 采取 stress-test：先进封装、HBM、ABF载板与先进制程良率确实是产业真实天花板，但它们并不等同于对 688362.S...",
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        "TSM",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS",
        "META",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-b976d8330e",
      "title": "NAND盈利弹性由价格与产品结构主导，而非单纯出货增长",
      "titleEn": "NAND earnings leverage is driven by pricing and mix rather than shipment growth alone",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b976d8330e/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
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          "title": "前序研究研究报告 - 工作日 2026-07-26",
          "summary": "首段日期锚：本报告按研究院权威工作日 2026-07-26 撰写。本报告对 th p 7b6f80e6 采取 stress-test：先进封装、HBM、ABF载板与先进制程良率确实是产业真实天花板，但它们并不等同于对 688362.S...",
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      "id": "thesis-83a30b141f",
      "title": "美伊直接交火导致原油暴涨5-6%，布伦特突破79美元逼近80。这是否会引燃二次通胀，推翻债市对美联储‘因分裂而暂停加息’的假设，并在9月…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美伊直接交火导致原油暴涨5-6%，布伦特突破79美元逼近80。这是否会引燃二次通胀，推翻债市对美联储‘因分裂而暂停加息’的假设，并在9月…",
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "无指引、更高更久的美联储机制：向美元、期限溢价与全球套息的传导",
          "summary": "研究记录 02 · 作者：全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日期：2026-07-26（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：压力测试（针对研究记录 01 的\"更高更久\"机制判断）",
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      "id": "thesis-40b8638803",
      "title": "全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 0,
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        {
          "title": "AI基础设施约束是否从电力转向硅：HBM、先进封装、GPU/CPU 交付与 WFE/测试设备订单门控",
          "summary": "AI基础设施约束是否从电力转向硅：HBM、先进封装、GPU/CPU 交付与 WFE/测试设备订单门控",
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      "id": "thesis-a10279b001",
      "title": "面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a10279b001/",
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      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI资本开支周期：台积电指引上调 vs 表外6620亿美元租赁悬顶",
          "summary": "日期：2026-08-16 作者：首席策略师（chief-strategist） 研究记录",
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        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "AMD",
        "AVGO"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-b37a11e5a3",
      "title": "FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。",
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      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
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        {
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          "summary": "AI基础设施约束是否从电力转向硅：HBM、先进封装、GPU/CPU 交付与 WFE/测试设备订单门控",
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      "id": "thesis-8bbbcdf5a4",
      "title": "GPU、HBM 与先进封装决定 AI 资本开支供给节奏",
      "titleEn": "GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging shape the AI capex supply cycle",
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      "id": "thesis-100e81e234",
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      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-100e81e234/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI基础设施约束是否从电力转向硅：HBM、先进封装、GPU/CPU 交付与 WFE/测试设备订单门控",
          "summary": "AI基础设施约束是否从电力转向硅：HBM、先进封装、GPU/CPU 交付与 WFE/测试设备订单门控",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c5078fd0ebb5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4f2d0121d3",
      "title": "高利润率出口材料企业需等待利润修复确认",
      "titleEn": "High-margin export materials require confirmation of profit recovery",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f2d0121d3/",
      "laneId": "lane_7e439482cbef",
      "lane": "中国出口制造/利润率",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-export-manufacturing-and-margins/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 64,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 人民币强势、carry、资金流与出口利润率阈值",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-26。Shell 校验返回 2026-07-26，本文所有“今日”“近期”“本周”和进入 SEP 前的判断，均以 2026-07-26 为锚。 [自测算: 系统日期锚 returned 2026-07-26]",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-98875586fcca/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600690.SH",
        "000333.SZ",
        "600900.SH",
        "002139.SZ",
        "2313.HK",
        "605183.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-029ce03da1",
      "title": "MSCI 调整窗口是被动资金与主动减仓相互博弈的流动性事件",
      "titleEn": "MSCI rebalance windows are liquidity events where passive demand meets active exits",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-029ce03da1/",
      "laneId": "lane_122bdfde6ea9",
      "lane": "指数调仓/被动资金事件",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/index-rebalance-and-passive-flow-events/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 64,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 前序研究：点燃价值／能源倾斜的红海／霍尔木兹油价脉冲能持续多久",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 前序研究：点燃价值／能源倾斜的红海／霍尔木兹油价脉冲能持续多久",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-983d8fa8d984/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "0700.HK",
        "9988.HK",
        "KWEB",
        "300308.SZ",
        "510300.SH",
        "2800.HK",
        "0981.HK",
        "3690.HK",
        "600900.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-42ca700527",
      "title": "霍尔木兹海峡60天和平协定签署且制裁豁免延长，导致运力大增、布伦特油价跌5.23%至$73.05/桶，LME铝价从高位跌19.1%至$3…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 霍尔木兹海峡60天和平协定签署且制裁豁免延长，导致运力大增、布伦特油价跌5.23%至$73.05/桶，LME铝价从高位跌19.1%至$3…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-42ca700527/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 64,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 前序研究：油价 beta 半衰期缩短后的多资产再配平",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 前序研究：油价 beta 半衰期缩短后的多资产再配平",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a941248fe249/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "0857.HK",
        "SLB"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-8b8ede3135",
      "title": "消费降级、健康刚需与银发经济正在重塑防御型增长",
      "titleEn": "Consumer downgrade, healthcare necessities, and the silver economy are reshaping defensive growth",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8b8ede3135/",
      "laneId": "lane_8cf8740aac77",
      "lane": "消费降级/健康银发",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/consumer-downgrade-health-and-silver-economy/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 62,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600519.SH",
        "3690.HK",
        "001215.SZ",
        "600276.SH",
        "300760.SZ",
        "1801.HK",
        "1177.HK",
        "2319.HK",
        "UNH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4b3b37e207",
      "title": "散户情绪与北向资金背离是 A 股风险偏好的关键温度计",
      "titleEn": "Retail sentiment versus northbound flow divergence is the key A-share risk thermometer",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b3b37e207/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 62,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [],
      "stockTickers": [
        "588000.SH",
        "300308.SZ",
        "300750.SZ",
        "600519.SH",
        "159915.SZ",
        "510300.SH",
        "688256.SH",
        "600900.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-bef6966fdd",
      "title": "工业机械的出口订单质量和设备更新周期决定制造业 CapEx 弹性",
      "titleEn": "Industrial machinery beta depends on export-order quality and equipment-upgrade capex",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bef6966fdd/",
      "laneId": "lane_6e2dcaab093e",
      "lane": "工业机械/设备更新出海",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/industrial-machinery-equipment-upgrade-and-exports/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 59,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股再通胀/价值卫星仓的可交易执行篮子——流动性、拥挤度与重叠控制",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 分析师：首席策略师（ chief-strategist ）· 工作日：2026-07-26（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场：synthesize（综合）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-61c3a6966e51/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600031.SH",
        "600761.SH",
        "002747.SZ",
        "000425.SZ",
        "603338.SH",
        "603298.SH",
        "000157.SZ",
        "601100.SH",
        "300124.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-6f42e0fe6e",
      "title": "稀土、铜铝与关键材料正在成为 AI 与新能源共用的供给约束",
      "titleEn": "Rare earths, copper, aluminum, and key materials are becoming shared supply constraints for AI and energy transition",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6f42e0fe6e/",
      "laneId": "lane_8c4a3526fcca",
      "lane": "关键材料/稀土铜铝",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/critical-materials-rare-earths-copper-and-aluminum/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 58,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "铜的真实需求底：AI电气化+电网资本开支能否为有色政策溢价托底，还是被+10.4%的供给增速跑赢？",
          "summary": "铜的真实需求底：AI电气化+电网资本开支能否为有色政策溢价托底，还是被+10.4%的供给增速跑赢？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4a7f7e06d30a/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "FCX",
        "GEV",
        "000831.SZ",
        "SCCO",
        "ETN",
        "MP",
        "TECK",
        "600111.SH",
        "600089.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-075017003b",
      "title": "AI 资本开支通过能源、设备和利率进入通胀定价",
      "titleEn": "AI capex enters inflation pricing through energy, equipment, and rates",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-075017003b/",
      "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08",
      "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "stable",
      "directionLabel": "稳定",
      "conviction": 55,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "周报研究计划：市场情绪与资金流",
          "summary": "锚定日期：2026-07-26 本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-07-20 (周一) → 2026-07-24 (周五) 主市场：美国股票、ETF、美国国债、原油与相关情绪指标。根据 NYSE/Nasdaq 2026 年休市日历...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ec22349930bc/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL",
        "XLE",
        "TLT",
        "XLU",
        "NVDA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-fd31cc177b",
      "title": "债券供给、地方债与久期需求决定利率下行空间",
      "titleEn": "Bond supply, local-government debt, and duration demand define room for rates to fall",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fd31cc177b/",
      "laneId": "lane_6fbf93c613f9",
      "lane": "债券供给/银行久期",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/bond-supply-and-bank-duration/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 54,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 跨资产配置：AI资本开支加通胀对冲，而不是单押久期",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 跨资产配置：AI资本开支加通胀对冲，而不是单押久期",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9a366c5943ed/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "601398.SH",
        "601939.SH",
        "601288.SH",
        "3988.HK",
        "600900.SH",
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "000001.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-51c6d833ae",
      "title": "食品加工的机会从食品通胀切换到原料波动、渠道库存与 B 端标准化",
      "titleEn": "Food processing opportunities are shifting from food inflation to input volatility, channel inventory, and B-side sta...",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-51c6d833ae/",
      "laneId": "lane_13d7ced85300",
      "lane": "食品加工/成本传导",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-processing-and-input-cost-transmission/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 50,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "认证型预制 / 复合调味品的量能韧性 — 工作日 2026-07-26",
          "summary": "截至机构工作日 2026-07-26，我的判断是有条件支持：认证型预制 / 复合调味品可以在特定场景维持销量，但无法重建调味品大类的普遍定价权。量能逻辑最强的场景是连锁餐饮、预制食品加工和重视信...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b176c0dccaa2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "001215.SZ",
        "600298.SH",
        "300973.SZ",
        "603345.SH",
        "603027.SH",
        "002991.SZ",
        "603317.SH",
        "002847.SZ",
        "ADM"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-c6c6be4745",
      "title": "中国出口制造的胜负手从低价扩张转向利润率、合规和本地化",
      "titleEn": "Chinese export manufacturing is shifting from low-price expansion to margin, compliance, and localization",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c6c6be4745/",
      "laneId": "lane_7e439482cbef",
      "lane": "中国出口制造/利润率",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-export-manufacturing-and-margins/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 49,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 人民币强势、carry、资金流与出口利润率阈值",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-26。Shell 校验返回 2026-07-26，本文所有“今日”“近期”“本周”和进入 SEP 前的判断，均以 2026-07-26 为锚。 [自测算: 系统日期锚 returned 2026-07-26]",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-98875586fcca/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "000333.SZ",
        "600690.SH",
        "300750.SZ",
        "002594.SZ",
        "600900.SH",
        "2313.HK",
        "002139.SZ",
        "002475.SZ",
        "2020.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a803fa3312",
      "title": "美联储路径仍是全球资产再定价的总阀门",
      "titleEn": "The Fed path remains the master valve for global asset repricing",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a803fa3312/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 46,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "无指引、更高更久的美联储机制：向美元、期限溢价与全球套息的传导",
          "summary": "研究记录 02 · 作者：全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日期：2026-07-26（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：压力测试（针对研究记录 01 的\"更高更久\"机制判断）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2dfe0fdf5c58/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "CME",
        "TLT",
        "JPM",
        "KRE",
        "GLD",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-aa97a5c1b3",
      "title": "家装链的胜负手在存量房翻新、国补触达与地产后周期库存去化",
      "titleEn": "Home improvement depends on existing-home renovation, subsidy reach, and post-property inventory digestion",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-aa97a5c1b3/",
      "laneId": "lane_1efa26c729b6",
      "lane": "家装/地产后周期",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/home-improvement-and-post-property-cycle/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 44,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "地产链折价解除阈值：一次压力测试 — 2026-07-26",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-26，Asia/Singapore。分析师： realestate-analyst。研究记录。立场： 压力测试（stress-test）。主题：A股地产链的折价解除阈值。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-698ec1fca2a7/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "002572.SZ",
        "603833.SH",
        "603816.SH",
        "600690.SH",
        "LOW",
        "000333.SZ",
        "002043.SZ",
        "603801.SH",
        "002508.SZ",
        "001322.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e26ef69f73",
      "title": "风险核查与证据质量是主题交易的必要过滤器",
      "titleEn": "Risk verification and evidence quality are necessary filters for theme trades",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e26ef69f73/",
      "laneId": "lane_ccbe817778d1",
      "lane": "组合风控/证据质量",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/portfolio-risk-and-evidence-quality/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 44,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 全球宏观开局卡：7月FOMC的油价通胀冲击",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-26，Asia/Singapore。本报告由 global-macro 撰写，核心问题是：在 Federal Reserve 于 2026年7月28-29日 召开会议前，油价驱动的再定价是否足以让组合为意外加息做准备，而...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-95254fcbdf58/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "CME",
        "CBOE",
        "IBKR",
        "VIRT",
        "SH"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "lanes": [
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      "title": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "thesisCount": 26,
      "eventCount": 64,
      "convictionTotal": 1997,
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI",
        "2800.HK",
        "9988.HK",
        "0700.HK",
        "CME"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 77
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "title": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "thesisCount": 14,
      "eventCount": 33,
      "convictionTotal": 1049,
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP",
        "JPM",
        "KRE",
        "P",
        "CME",
        "GLD"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 75
    },
    {
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      "title": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "thesisCount": 10,
      "eventCount": 24,
      "convictionTotal": 661,
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "NVDA",
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    {
      "id": "reader:reader-daily-reader-2026-07-26",
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      "badge": "READER MEMO",
      "color": "blue",
      "date": "2026-07-26",
      "title": "2026-07-26 | 7月26日投资晨读：FOMC尾部升温，硬科技与工业品进入利润兑现筛选",
      "titleEn": "",
      "summary": "相较上一期，决策焦点不再只是AI项目能否按期通电，而是两项新的组合约束。第一，7月28—29日FOMC前，油价冲击、偏高的PCE与4.33%的两年期收益率使“鹰派按兵不动”成为基准、立即加息成为不可忽略的尾部；但7月30日PCE晚于决议，尚不足以把加息当作中心情景。第二，“有盈利硬科技”通过了需求测试，却没有通过板块性利润测试：全球设备需求强劲，国内前道设备仍有约40%以上毛利率锚，但研发、新品导入及非经常性收益令收入向核心利润的传导分化，因此新增成长敞口只能落在窄篮子。第三，工业制造报告提供了AI电网之外的新验…",
      "href": "/investor/reports/reader-daily-reader-2026-07-26/",
      "chart": null,
      "metrics": [],
      "tags": [
        "reader"
      ],
      "priorityViews": [
        {
          "title": "FOMC风险从鹰派指引升级为需要计价的加息尾部",
          "view": "全球宏观报告以按兵不动但措辞偏鹰为60%基准，并把加息或明确近期加息指引列为30%的自测算尾部；其依据是5月PCE同比4.1%、油价冲击及两年期收益率升至4.33%。但6月CPI环比下降0.4%，且下一次PCE在7月30日、晚于决议，意味着预防式加息仍缺少最后的数据确认。",
          "whyItMatters": "这会同时约束长久期权益、前端利率和美元敏感资产的估值容错；组合需要防范加息尾部，却不应把尚未发生的政策结果当作事实。"
        },
        {
          "title": "“有盈利硬科技”成立，但只能买利润质量而非宽半导体beta",
          "view": "当日压力测试确认全球半导体设备需求继续增长，国内前道设备龙头仍具较高毛利率；同时北方华创、中微公司和拓荆科技均出现收入增速快于核心利润、研发费用抬升或非经常性收益放大表观利润等问题。先进封测盈利恢复更快，但多数毛利率仍处低双位数。",
          "whyItMatters": "A股成长腿的新增权重应由扣非利润、经营现金流和毛利率稳定性决定；688012.SH、002371.SZ、688072.SH不能因国产替代叙事被等权处理，588000.SH的宽beta也缺少同等强度的利润支撑。"
        },
        {
          "title": "工业相对收益开始奖励“订单转现金”，不再奖励订单标题",
          "view": "工业周报称7月20—24日ITA上涨4.08%、相对SPY超额4.67个百分点；RTX、LMT与NOC同时具备大额积压订单、上调2026年指引和现金流证据。BA在多项订单公布后仍下跌2.11%，表明市场继续折价交付、质量监管、供应链和现金转换风险。相关数字来自有日期的周报，不是空白报价面板的实时事实。",
          "whyItMatters": "国防航空航天供应链提供了区别于AI电网的盈利兑现路径，但受益应集中于可将积压订单转化为2026—2027年收入和自由现金流的公司；BA仍是执行风险样本。"
        }
      ]
    }
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      "keywords": [
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        "电网",
        "power",
        "grid",
        "变压器",
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        "核电",
        "电气设备"
      ],
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    },
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      "labelEn": "Semis, memory and optical",
      "color": "yellow",
      "keywords": [
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        "hbm",
        "存储",
        "memory",
        "cpo",
        "光模块",
        "先进封装",
        "micron",
        "mu"
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    },
    {
      "id": "ai-infrastructure",
      "labelZh": "AI 基础设施",
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      "color": "blue",
      "keywords": [
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        "ai infrastructure",
        "算力",
        "gpu",
        "数据中心",
        "data center",
        "nvda",
        "nvidia"
      ],
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    },
    {
      "id": "china-assets",
      "labelZh": "中国资产与市场结构",
      "labelEn": "China assets and market structure",
      "color": "orange",
      "keywords": [
        "a股",
        "港股",
        "科创50",
        "star50",
        "中国资产",
        "msci",
        "两融",
        "人民币"
      ],
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  ],
  "analystCounts": [
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    },
    {
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    {
      "label": "读者报告",
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    "contemporaneous": true,
    "note": "This day view is assembled from public, date-stamped AI Institute research contracts."
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}