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        "风险"
      ],
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    },
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      "id": "archive-8c5915f6c474",
      "title": "2026年云巨头AI资本开支突破7000亿美元与数据中心电力供应瓶颈分析",
      "date": "2026-07-25",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8c5915f6c474/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026年云巨头AI资本开支突破7000亿美元与数据中心电力供应瓶颈分析",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-241de0664379",
      "title": "供给冲击下的美联储反应函数——面对双峰油价，是看穿，还是加固鹰派按兵不动",
      "date": "2026-07-25",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-241de0664379/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "供给冲击下的美联储反应函数——面对双峰油价，是看穿，还是加固鹰派按兵不动",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-df19ba2eafa1",
      "title": "北京的政策反应函数：守指数、国家队升级、货币宽松与类平准喊话——排序解构",
      "date": "2026-07-25",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-df19ba2eafa1/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "北京的政策反应函数：守指数、国家队升级、货币宽松与类平准喊话——排序解构",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-1f7475abd976",
      "title": "把付款能力地图转化为A股组合：应急链五标的的超配/低配排序、仓位与催化剂",
      "date": "2026-07-25",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1f7475abd976/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "把付款能力地图转化为A股组合：应急链五标的的超配/低配排序、仓位与催化剂",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-00275e785612",
      "title": "电网与先进封装板块毛利稳定性及其对4.59%股息票息自融资能力的压力测试",
      "date": "2026-07-25",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-00275e785612/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "电网与先进封装板块毛利稳定性及其对4.59%股息票息自融资能力的压力测试",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    }
  ],
  "discussions": [],
  "thesisEvents": [
    {
      "id": "thesis-f0b8d44918",
      "title": "美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f0b8d44918/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
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        {
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          "summary": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a34ed8062cef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
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          "summary": "2026-07-25 全球宏观/外汇研究记录：支撑A股质量/价值资金流的USD/CNY稳定区间",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1a0dfa6340de/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇...",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇治理",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b7d84d91c2d9/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 — USD/CNY 对冲成本上升对股息套利腿的压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 — USD/CNY 对冲成本上升对股息套利腿的压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-39967e248121/",
          "stance": "risk",
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        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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        "UUP",
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-2e367ef854",
      "title": "美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2e367ef854/",
      "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08",
      "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 3,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 全球宏观开局：7月FOMC面对的是油价冲击，而不是干净的通胀下行信号",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 全球宏观开局：7月FOMC面对的是油价冲击，而不是干净的通胀下行信号",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-97df383440c1/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI电价、公用事业资本开支与FOMC通胀传导",
          "summary": "分析师：全球宏观分析师 ( global-macro ) 权威工作日期： 2026-07-25 [D0] [D0] 研究记录 [D0] 立场：综合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d07a08785483/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "FOMC议息前夕全球宏观分析：通胀粘性、算力投资韧性与央行政策路径的再定价",
          "summary": "FOMC议息前夕全球宏观分析：通胀粘性、算力投资韧性与央行政策路径的再定价",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f86e3b6cf53a/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "FOMC前后AI电力通胀尾部的跨资产配置，2026-07-25",
          "summary": "分析师：首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 权威工作日期： 2026-07-25 [D0] [D0] 研究记录 [D0] 立场：综合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fee4646d5b8a/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "XLE",
        "XLU",
        "TLT"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-7930de9cdc",
      "title": "沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7930de9cdc/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 — USD/CNY 对冲成本上升对股息套利腿的压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 — USD/CNY 对冲成本上升对股息套利腿的压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-39967e248121/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇...",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇治理",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b7d84d91c2d9/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 首席策略师研究记录09：USD/CNY管理型区间与日元 Carry 拆仓凸性下的多资产对冲组合",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 首席策略师研究记录09：USD/CNY管理型区间与日元 Carry 拆仓凸性下的多资产对冲组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99dfb5d53df7/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "summary": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a34ed8062cef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4ad776c10c",
      "title": "地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4ad776c10c/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 4,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI电力Capex下的宏观通胀与中美真实利率路径持续分化研究",
          "summary": "权威工作日期： 2026-07-25 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 ( global-macro ) 研究记录 当前立场： 综合 (Synthesize)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8b1b1aba5789/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "FOMC后AI电力通胀尾部的A股轮动方案，2026-07-25",
          "summary": "分析师：首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 权威工作日期： 2026-07-25 [D0] [D0] 研究记录 [D0] 立场：综合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4d4d3e13b855/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 AI电力通胀背景下的大类资产风险平价与久期管理策略",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 AI电力通胀背景下的大类资产风险平价与久期管理策略",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a26bb0fc579/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-2027年全球通胀预期与真实利率路径的定量评估 — 能源成本与AI资本开支对长期中性利率(r )及...",
          "summary": "2026-2027年全球通胀预期与真实利率路径的定量评估 — 能源成本与AI资本开支对长期中性利率(r )及货币政策转向空间的双重重构",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8628a2564892/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
        "0883.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-2aa156c4c9",
      "title": "2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2aa156c4c9/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 2,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "summary": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a34ed8062cef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇...",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇治理",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b7d84d91c2d9/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 首席策略师研究记录09：USD/CNY管理型区间与日元 Carry 拆仓凸性下的多资产对冲组合",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 首席策略师研究记录09：USD/CNY管理型区间与日元 Carry 拆仓凸性下的多资产对冲组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99dfb5d53df7/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 — USD/CNY 对冲成本上升对股息套利腿的压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 — USD/CNY 对冲成本上升对股息套利腿的压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-39967e248121/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
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        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-11523cabbd",
      "title": "熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-11523cabbd/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 3,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "summary": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a34ed8062cef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇...",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇治理",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b7d84d91c2d9/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 首席策略师研究记录09：USD/CNY管理型区间与日元 Carry 拆仓凸性下的多资产对冲组合",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 首席策略师研究记录09：USD/CNY管理型区间与日元 Carry 拆仓凸性下的多资产对冲组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99dfb5d53df7/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "把 USDCNH / DXY / 离岸资金闸门翻译成 A股金融与价值因子的具体仓位",
          "summary": "把 USDCNH / DXY / 离岸资金闸门翻译成 A股金融与价值因子的具体仓位",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-951a3ff80d4e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-6fd1b8808d",
      "title": "资金成本上行与长端利率有锚下的A股风格轮动和金融板块配置",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 资金成本上行与长端利率有锚下的A股风格轮动和金融板块配置",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6fd1b8808d/",
      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 4,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 - 国内利率、资产荒与A股质量红利验证",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 工作日： 2026-07-25（亚洲/新加坡） · 立场： 综合（synthesize） 主题： 国内利率与流动性路径究竟验证A股质量红利/防御倾斜，还是通过稳增长刺激将其...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-153a848c1226/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 银行NIM压力测试后的红利低波行业权重再平衡",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 首席策略师 · 立场： 综合（synthesize） 工作日期： 2026-07-25，Asia/Singapore",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-14940d84b76f/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026下半年中国利率路径：10年期国债先触1.65%还是1.90%——及其对交通红利腿再平衡的意义",
          "summary": "2026下半年中国利率路径：10年期国债先触1.65%还是1.90%——及其对交通红利腿再平衡的意义",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-17d395dce27e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 前序研究：A股质量红利与国债久期组合的国内政策和流动性验证",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 前序研究：A股质量红利与国债久期组合的国内政策和流动性验证",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-211688eac3dd/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "601088.SH",
        "601398.SH",
        "600941.SH",
        "510880.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-7a72c14c0e",
      "title": "离岸收紧目前更可能触发局部高拥挤板块去杠杆，而非A股全市场两融踩踏；红利低波守底仓，资源股只做流动性凸性腿。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 离岸收紧目前更可能触发局部高拥挤板块去杠杆，而非A股全市场两融踩踏；红利低波守底仓，资源股只做流动性凸性腿。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a72c14c0e/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 3,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "把 USDCNH / DXY / 离岸资金闸门翻译成 A股金融与价值因子的具体仓位",
          "summary": "把 USDCNH / DXY / 离岸资金闸门翻译成 A股金融与价值因子的具体仓位",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-951a3ff80d4e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "summary": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a34ed8062cef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 A股策略研究记录：两融压力与红利低波、硬科技双主线博弈",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 A股策略研究记录：两融压力与红利低波、硬科技双主线博弈",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ebbe2898882e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25：政策后手能否守住 USDCNH 6.83 与 CSI 300 4,600",
          "summary": "2026-07-25：政策后手能否守住 USDCNH 6.83 与 CSI 300 4,600",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-82f10d6a5eb8/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "9988.HK",
        "0700.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b13c7cf092",
      "title": "高纯石英材料受益于先进封装扩产，但兑现取决于认证与产品结构",
      "titleEn": "High-purity quartz can benefit from advanced-packaging expansion, conditional on qualification and mix",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13c7cf092/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 70,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 4,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 压力测试：先进封装国产化能否抵消 HBM/CoWoS 成本冲击？",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 压力测试：先进封装国产化能否抵消 HBM/CoWoS 成本冲击？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-19039ce2e510/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "组合构建：做多瓶颈半导体 vs. 做空capex付款方平台，并给2027–2028消化尾部定量",
          "summary": "组合构建：做多瓶颈半导体 vs. 做空capex付款方平台，并给2027–2028消化尾部定量",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5f838b82c64a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "先进封装与HBM产能：AI算力扩张的新瓶颈 — 2026-07-25",
          "summary": "作者：半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） 日期：2026-07-25 研究记录 立场：支持",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3315c3a3c4f8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 A股哑铃最终仓位配置决议：纳入半导体汇率敏感度、先进封装Capex节奏与前序三相闸门",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 A股哑铃最终仓位配置决议：纳入半导体汇率敏感度、先进封装Capex节奏与前序三相闸门",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-37c1e7b11058/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "NVDA",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS",
        "ASML",
        "688012.SH",
        "002916.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3f6ee4feb9",
      "title": "核电容量机制可改善现金流，但资本开支约束仍在",
      "titleEn": "Nuclear capacity mechanisms may improve cash flow, but capex remains binding",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3f6ee4feb9/",
      "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e",
      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI电力链内部分层:设备端(GEV)与商用/核电端(VST/CEG)为何剧烈背离",
          "summary": "AI电力链内部分层:设备端(GEV)与商用/核电端(VST/CEG)为何剧烈背离",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4b3cebe9c436/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI电力瓶颈超级周期：A股与全球权益市场的估值重构、风格轮动与板块配置策略",
          "summary": "AI电力瓶颈超级周期：A股与全球权益市场的估值重构、风格轮动与板块配置策略",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7d0c89b2743f/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "研究记录04：2026-07-25 AI电力稀缺组合的公用事业腿验证",
          "summary": "分析师： 公用事业分析师 ( utilities-analyst ) 工作日期： 2026-07-25（Asia/Singapore） 研究记录 立场： 支持",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7d1a45d80785/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 策略研究记录05: AI电力股栈的组合约束",
          "summary": "截至本报告权威工作日2026-07-25，且已用shell日期确认，我对上一张卡的配置结论给出综合支持，而不是重新争论股票排序。[自测算: 工作日由研究记录任务指定，并用 系统日期锚 确认] 40%受...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c6c1cfda2f86/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "CEG",
        "AEP",
        "600025.SH",
        "DUK",
        "1816.HK",
        "NEE"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b13b8604a5",
      "title": "美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13b8604a5/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 4,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股执行监控：两融、成交、ETF申赎与风格拥挤度触发阈值",
          "summary": "分析师： chief-strategist（首席策略师） · 研究记录 研究所工作日： 2026-07-25（Asia/Singapore） 立场： synthesize（综合） 主题： 将A股红利/防御加仓、券商降仓、小盘动量和出口硬件再...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9f03766f3ad2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "日元套息平仓情景下的A股风格轮动：谁来承接剩余Beta？",
          "summary": "分析师： chief-strategist（首席策略师） · 研究记录 研究所工作日： 2026-07-25（Asia/Singapore） 立场： synthesize（综合） 主题： 日元套息平仓情景下的A股风格轮动与行业Beta承接",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-662e982cebc7/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "美元/日元40年低位下的日元套息平仓压力测试",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 立场： 压力测试（承接研究记录 01） · 工作日期： 2026-07-25（亚洲/新加坡） 本轮根主题： 2026年7月中东油价冲击与美联储加息活风险；6月通胀降温是否...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f82d62924b5b/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 - 把美元/日元套息尾部转化为组合动作",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 首席策略师 工作日期： 2026-07-25（亚洲/新加坡） · 立场： synthesize 主题： 面向半定价美元/日元套息尾部的对冲定量、权益 Beta 预算与凸性叠加",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4c75d98f8606/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "KWEB",
        "FXY"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-5505b40cdb",
      "title": "通用减速机修复先于机器人精密传动兑现",
      "titleEn": "General reducer recovery precedes realization of the robotics option",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5505b40cdb/",
      "laneId": "lane_a724a01f8428",
      "lane": "具身智能/机器人零部件",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/embodied-ai-and-robotics-components/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 64,
      "supports": 3,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25｜中国机器人出口商的公司层面与产品线敞口",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-25，Asia/Singapore。 [S0] 本报告综合 既有研究记录：出口冲击不是统一需求消失，而是收入再分配测试。最有能力把被重定向需求转化为确认收入、而不是渠道库存的中...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99b6abbd931c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 合规无虞A股机器人复利者篮子的境内执行：被动/ETF纳入、两融与解禁",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 合规无虞A股机器人复利者篮子的境内执行：被动/ETF纳入、两融与解禁",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c23dc113c476/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — “合规之墙”主题下上市机器人敞口的组合配置",
          "summary": "作者： 首席策略师（ chief-strategist ）· 角色标签：primary / horizon - 研究所法定工作日期： 2026-07-25（Asia/Singapore） - 立场： synthesize（综合，承接前序研究） - 主题： 机器人...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c600dfa343ef/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 境内流动性、被动化与“新质生产力”政策资金面：如何为机器人篮子重新择时",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 境内流动性、被动化与“新质生产力”政策资金面：如何为机器人篮子重新择时",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-334f4e933059/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "002472.SZ",
        "002747.SZ",
        "300124.SZ",
        "TSLA",
        "688017.SH",
        "603915.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-075017003b",
      "title": "AI 资本开支通过能源、设备和利率进入通胀定价",
      "titleEn": "AI capex enters inflation pricing through energy, equipment, and rates",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-075017003b/",
      "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08",
      "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "stable",
      "directionLabel": "稳定",
      "conviction": 55,
      "supports": 3,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI电力Capex下的宏观通胀与中美真实利率路径持续分化研究",
          "summary": "权威工作日期： 2026-07-25 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 ( global-macro ) 研究记录 当前立场： 综合 (Synthesize)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8b1b1aba5789/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 AI基础设施分析师研究记录：利率阈值、Hyperscaler AI Capex与电力交付压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 AI基础设施分析师研究记录：利率阈值、Hyperscaler AI Capex与电力交付压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-daf0cc3860ed/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-2027年全球通胀预期与真实利率路径的定量评估 — 能源成本与AI资本开支对长期中性利率(r )及...",
          "summary": "2026-2027年全球通胀预期与真实利率路径的定量评估 — 能源成本与AI资本开支对长期中性利率(r )及货币政策转向空间的双重重构",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8628a2564892/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "FOMC前后AI电力通胀尾部的跨资产配置，2026-07-25",
          "summary": "分析师：首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 权威工作日期： 2026-07-25 [D0] [D0] 研究记录 [D0] 立场：综合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fee4646d5b8a/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL",
        "XLE",
        "TLT",
        "XLU",
        "NVDA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-985b80b224",
      "title": "具身智能机器人进入 BOM 降本与执行器供给验证期",
      "titleEn": "Embodied AI robotics enters the BOM deflation and actuator supply verification phase",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-985b80b224/",
      "laneId": "lane_a724a01f8428",
      "lane": "具身智能/机器人零部件",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/embodied-ai-and-robotics-components/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 55,
      "supports": 3,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25｜中国机器人出口商的公司层面与产品线敞口",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-25，Asia/Singapore。 [S0] 本报告综合 既有研究记录：出口冲击不是统一需求消失，而是收入再分配测试。最有能力把被重定向需求转化为确认收入、而不是渠道库存的中...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99b6abbd931c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 合规无虞A股机器人复利者篮子的境内执行：被动/ETF纳入、两融与解禁",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 合规无虞A股机器人复利者篮子的境内执行：被动/ETF纳入、两融与解禁",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c23dc113c476/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — “合规之墙”主题下上市机器人敞口的组合配置",
          "summary": "作者： 首席策略师（ chief-strategist ）· 角色标签：primary / horizon - 研究所法定工作日期： 2026-07-25（Asia/Singapore） - 立场： synthesize（综合，承接前序研究） - 主题： 机器人...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c600dfa343ef/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 境内流动性、被动化与“新质生产力”政策资金面：如何为机器人篮子重新择时",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 境内流动性、被动化与“新质生产力”政策资金面：如何为机器人篮子重新择时",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-334f4e933059/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "002472.SZ",
        "688017.SH",
        "TSLA",
        "002747.SZ",
        "300124.SZ",
        "NVDA",
        "603662.SH",
        "002050.SZ",
        "ABBNY"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e9630d3ee1",
      "title": "日元套息平仓是 EM 科技、离岸中资与高 beta 主题的尾部流动性风险",
      "titleEn": "Yen carry unwind is a tail liquidity risk for EM tech, offshore China, and high-beta themes",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e9630d3ee1/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 52,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 7,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇...",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇治理",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b7d84d91c2d9/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "美元/日元40年低位下的日元套息平仓压力测试",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 立场： 压力测试（承接研究记录 01） · 工作日期： 2026-07-25（亚洲/新加坡） 本轮根主题： 2026年7月中东油价冲击与美联储加息活风险；6月通胀降温是否...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f82d62924b5b/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "日元套息平仓情景下的A股风格轮动：谁来承接剩余Beta？",
          "summary": "分析师： chief-strategist（首席策略师） · 研究记录 研究所工作日： 2026-07-25（Asia/Singapore） 立场： synthesize（综合） 主题： 日元套息平仓情景下的A股风格轮动与行业Beta承接",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-662e982cebc7/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "日元套息平仓对人民币与 A 股高 beta 资金流的外溢传导：压力测试",
          "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） 工作日期： 2026-07-25（Asia/Singapore）· 研究记录 承接： 研究记录 01（global-macro，美联储—日本央行背离与...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dc5240ad1e76/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "CME",
        "CBOE",
        "LOW",
        "UUP",
        "EEM",
        "FXY",
        "EWJ",
        "MCHI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-026aa1679b",
      "title": "云厂商自发电正在把 AI 交付风险转移到核电、燃气、电网与公用事业信用",
      "titleEn": "Cloud self-generation is shifting AI delivery risk into nuclear, gas, grid assets, and utility credit",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-026aa1679b/",
      "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708",
      "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 49,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI电力链内部分层:设备端(GEV)与商用/核电端(VST/CEG)为何剧烈背离",
          "summary": "AI电力链内部分层:设备端(GEV)与商用/核电端(VST/CEG)为何剧烈背离",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4b3cebe9c436/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "公用事业分析师专题研究报告：变现Time-to-Power稀缺性——AI时代下的专营公用事业、电网设备与绿...",
          "summary": "公用事业分析师专题研究报告：变现Time-to-Power稀缺性——AI时代下的专营公用事业、电网设备与绿电整合受益格局",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-83c4f79c5e55/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI数据中心电价飙升、公用事业速率基数重估与PPA溢价",
          "summary": "分析师 : 公用事业分析师 ( utilities-analyst ) 权威工作日期 : 2026-07-25 [D0] [D0] 研究记录 [D0] 共享[D0] 立场 : 支持",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-55ff9098e304/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI电力瓶颈超级周期：A股与全球权益市场的估值重构、风格轮动与板块配置策略",
          "summary": "AI电力瓶颈超级周期：A股与全球权益市场的估值重构、风格轮动与板块配置策略",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7d0c89b2743f/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "VST",
        "CEG",
        "GEV",
        "SMR",
        "META",
        "ETN",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "AEP",
        "NVDA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-bb46b0c3de",
      "title": "USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bb46b0c3de/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "summary": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a34ed8062cef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 首席策略师研究记录09：USD/CNY管理型区间与日元 Carry 拆仓凸性下的多资产对冲组合",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 首席策略师研究记录09：USD/CNY管理型区间与日元 Carry 拆仓凸性下的多资产对冲组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99dfb5d53df7/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇...",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇治理",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b7d84d91c2d9/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f5f184ba4e",
      "title": "在美联储偏鹰暂停、美债收益率攀升至4.66%的背景下，国内电子行业两融余额高悬至5722.82亿元是否面临负Gamma清算压力？如何重构…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在美联储偏鹰暂停、美债收益率攀升至4.66%的背景下，国内电子行业两融余额高悬至5722.82亿元是否面临负Gamma清算压力？如何重构…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5f184ba4e/",
      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 中国宏观研究记录：高美债收益率与强美元约束下的国内政策流动性对冲与两融去杠杆阻断...",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 中国宏观研究记录：高美债收益率与强美元约束下的国内政策流动性对冲与两融去杠杆阻断机制",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7b373a4dd94b/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 A股策略研究记录：两融压力与红利低波、硬科技双主线博弈",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 A股策略研究记录：两融压力与红利低波、硬科技双主线博弈",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ebbe2898882e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 有资金，但被配给——对18%\"算力+电力\"超配的A股流动性、两融与拥挤度压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 有资金，但被配给——对18%\"算力+电力\"超配的A股流动性、两融与拥挤度压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f771573d6662/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "601088.SH",
        "601398.SH",
        "588000.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a60b131c8c",
      "title": "面对4.2%的总体CPI与108美元的布伦特原油，新任主席沃什将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上如何调整点阵图与政策立场？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 面对4.2%的总体CPI与108美元的布伦特原油，新任主席沃什将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上如何调整点阵图与政策立场？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a60b131c8c/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "供给冲击下的美联储反应函数——面对双峰油价，是看穿，还是加固鹰派按兵不动",
          "summary": "供给冲击下的美联储反应函数——面对双峰油价，是看穿，还是加固鹰派按兵不动",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-241de0664379/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录：7月FOMC加息惊吓与油价冲击相遇",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录：7月FOMC加息惊吓与油价冲击相遇",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e1390ec7d04e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "美联储—日本央行政策背离与日元处于世代低位：通往 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC 的套息平仓风险",
          "summary": "美联储—日本央行政策背离与日元处于世代低位：通往 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC 的套息平仓风险",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f4f6af1cf818/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
        "0883.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-eefbf1a467",
      "title": "中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-eefbf1a467/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇...",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇治理",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b7d84d91c2d9/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 首席策略师研究记录09：USD/CNY管理型区间与日元 Carry 拆仓凸性下的多资产对冲组合",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 首席策略师研究记录09：USD/CNY管理型区间与日元 Carry 拆仓凸性下的多资产对冲组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99dfb5d53df7/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "summary": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a34ed8062cef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-fe66302bd9",
      "title": "美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fe66302bd9/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "summary": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a34ed8062cef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 首席策略师研究记录09：USD/CNY管理型区间与日元 Carry 拆仓凸性下的多资产对冲组合",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 首席策略师研究记录09：USD/CNY管理型区间与日元 Carry 拆仓凸性下的多资产对冲组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99dfb5d53df7/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇...",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇治理",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b7d84d91c2d9/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d0faeae7f0",
      "title": "NAND价格与产品组合驱动SanDisk盈利弹性",
      "titleEn": "NAND pricing and mix drive SanDisk earnings leverage",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d0faeae7f0/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 72,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "研究记录10：GPU/HBM供应与可通电站点约束，2026-07-25",
          "summary": "分析师： 半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） 工作日期： 2026-07-25（Asia/Singapore）[自测算：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-25] 研究线程标识：已归档",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-93feca6022f0/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 压力测试：先进封装国产化能否抵消 HBM/CoWoS 成本冲击？",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 压力测试：先进封装国产化能否抵消 HBM/CoWoS 成本冲击？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-19039ce2e510/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "先进封装与HBM产能：AI算力扩张的新瓶颈 — 2026-07-25",
          "summary": "作者：半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） 日期：2026-07-25 研究记录 立场：支持",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3315c3a3c4f8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS",
        "META",
        "AMD"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-10f0672291",
      "title": "科创50单日+8.41%后，团队应把硬科技升为中期主线，还是在两融、广度、ETF申赎确认前按拥挤反弹处理？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50单日+8.41%后，团队应把硬科技升为中期主线，还是在两融、广度、ETF申赎确认前按拥挤反弹处理？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-10f0672291/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 71,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股执行监控：两融、成交、ETF申赎与风格拥挤度触发阈值",
          "summary": "分析师： chief-strategist（首席策略师） · 研究记录 研究所工作日： 2026-07-25（Asia/Singapore） 立场： synthesize（综合） 主题： 将A股红利/防御加仓、券商降仓、小盘动量和出口硬件再...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9f03766f3ad2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 合规无虞A股机器人复利者篮子的境内执行：被动/ETF纳入、两融与解禁",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 合规无虞A股机器人复利者篮子的境内执行：被动/ETF纳入、两融与解禁",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c23dc113c476/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 A股策略研究记录：两融压力与红利低波、硬科技双主线博弈",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 A股策略研究记录：两融压力与红利低波、硬科技双主线博弈",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ebbe2898882e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "588000.SH",
        "688256.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688008.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "688041.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b976d8330e",
      "title": "NAND盈利弹性由价格与产品结构主导，而非单纯出货增长",
      "titleEn": "NAND earnings leverage is driven by pricing and mix rather than shipment growth alone",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b976d8330e/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 70,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "研究记录10：GPU/HBM供应与可通电站点约束，2026-07-25",
          "summary": "分析师： 半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） 工作日期： 2026-07-25（Asia/Singapore）[自测算：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-25] 研究线程标识：已归档",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-93feca6022f0/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "先进封装与HBM产能：AI算力扩张的新瓶颈 — 2026-07-25",
          "summary": "作者：半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） 日期：2026-07-25 研究记录 立场：支持",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3315c3a3c4f8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 2026-07-25 — 算力供应链扰动下的AI基础设施产能瓶颈与资本开支重塑",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-07-25 — 算力供应链扰动下的AI基础设施产能瓶颈与资本开支重塑",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-85c1ce52926b/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "META",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS",
        "TSM",
        "AMD",
        "AVGO"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d1f5e35b43",
      "title": "2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d1f5e35b43/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "研究记录10：GPU/HBM供应与可通电站点约束，2026-07-25",
          "summary": "分析师： 半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） 工作日期： 2026-07-25（Asia/Singapore）[自测算：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-25] 研究线程标识：已归档",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-93feca6022f0/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 电力约束向硅片层传导：每token功耗是否结构性加速定制推理ASIC对通用GPU的替代？",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 电力约束向硅片层传导：每token功耗是否结构性加速定制推理ASIC对通用GPU的替代？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5bd7cf6a6088/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 AI基础设施分析师研究记录：利率阈值、Hyperscaler AI Capex与电力交付压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 AI基础设施分析师研究记录：利率阈值、Hyperscaler AI Capex与电力交付压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-daf0cc3860ed/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b37a11e5a3",
      "title": "FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b37a11e5a3/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "先进封装与HBM产能：AI算力扩张的新瓶颈 — 2026-07-25",
          "summary": "作者：半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） 日期：2026-07-25 研究记录 立场：支持",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3315c3a3c4f8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 电力约束向硅片层传导：每token功耗是否结构性加速定制推理ASIC对通用GPU的替代？",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 电力约束向硅片层传导：每token功耗是否结构性加速定制推理ASIC对通用GPU的替代？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5bd7cf6a6088/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "研究记录10：GPU/HBM供应与可通电站点约束，2026-07-25",
          "summary": "分析师： 半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） 工作日期： 2026-07-25（Asia/Singapore）[自测算：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-25] 研究线程标识：已归档",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-93feca6022f0/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-be91bfe6ee",
      "title": "高纯石英材料需求需由先进封装订单验证",
      "titleEn": "High-purity quartz demand requires validation from advanced-packaging orders",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-be91bfe6ee/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 63,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电网与先进封装板块毛利稳定性及其对4.59%股息票息自融资能力的压力测试",
          "summary": "电网与先进封装板块毛利稳定性及其对4.59%股息票息自融资能力的压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-00275e785612/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "先进封装与HBM产能：AI算力扩张的新瓶颈 — 2026-07-25",
          "summary": "作者：半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） 日期：2026-07-25 研究记录 立场：支持",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3315c3a3c4f8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "组合构建：做多瓶颈半导体 vs. 做空capex付款方平台，并给2027–2028消化尾部定量",
          "summary": "组合构建：做多瓶颈半导体 vs. 做空capex付款方平台，并给2027–2028消化尾部定量",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5f838b82c64a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "NVDA",
        "000660.KS",
        "688012.SH",
        "MU",
        "ASML",
        "002916.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f5d7a79c82",
      "title": "HBM4、CoWoS 与背面供电正在成为 AI 服务器需求曲线的串行闸门",
      "titleEn": "HBM4, CoWoS, and backside power are becoming serial gates for the AI-server demand curve",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5d7a79c82/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 62,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "研究记录10：GPU/HBM供应与可通电站点约束，2026-07-25",
          "summary": "分析师： 半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） 工作日期： 2026-07-25（Asia/Singapore）[自测算：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-25] 研究线程标识：已归档",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-93feca6022f0/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "先进封装与HBM产能：AI算力扩张的新瓶颈 — 2026-07-25",
          "summary": "作者：半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） 日期：2026-07-25 研究记录 立场：支持",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3315c3a3c4f8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 压力测试：先进封装国产化能否抵消 HBM/CoWoS 成本冲击？",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 压力测试：先进封装国产化能否抵消 HBM/CoWoS 成本冲击？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-19039ce2e510/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "000660.KS",
        "MU",
        "AMD",
        "META",
        "AVGO",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "ASML"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-ce29facfbd",
      "title": "中国资产定价仍受政策、流动性与风险偏好共同驱动",
      "titleEn": "China asset pricing remains driven by policy, liquidity, and risk appetite",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ce29facfbd/",
      "laneId": "lane_a8d9c69ae883",
      "lane": "中国权益流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-equity-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 52,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "首席策略师研究研究记录 - 2026-07-25",
          "summary": "截至研究所权威工作日 2026-07-25，本报告片基于 research note 至 research note 的宏观、资产配置与因子压力测试结论，构建 2026-07-28 至 2026-07-29 FOMC 决议后 [S1] A 股两融资金流、ETF...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-33c50690c489/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "中国政策工具箱能否把人民币破位约束在有序路径？（AI基础设施仓位：黄档还是红档）",
          "summary": "中国政策工具箱能否把人民币破位约束在有序路径？（AI基础设施仓位：黄档还是红档）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a429e3b1dacb/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "偏鹰7月30日FOMC下PBOC的贬值容忍度与A股两融踩踏防线",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 中国宏观分析师 (china-macro) 工作日期： 2026-07-25（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场： 支持（并标注一处矛盾） 根主题： 2026年7月FOMC前瞻——按兵不动与9月路径重估",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cb84ecdad25b/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "300308.SZ",
        "0700.HK",
        "9988.HK",
        "510300.SH",
        "159915.SZ",
        "300750.SZ",
        "3988.HK",
        "588000.SH",
        "LOW"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a0828c5498",
      "title": "在两融余额突破3.015万亿元且电子板块平均CMR跌至138.55%的背景下，下周一强平盘（约1460亿）释放是否会刺穿市场底？组合应如…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在两融余额突破3.015万亿元且电子板块平均CMR跌至138.55%的背景下，下周一强平盘（约1460亿）释放是否会刺穿市场底？组合应如…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a0828c5498/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 82,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 A股策略研究记录：两融压力与红利低波、硬科技双主线博弈",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 A股策略研究记录：两融压力与红利低波、硬科技双主线博弈",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ebbe2898882e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 有资金，但被配给——对18%\"算力+电力\"超配的A股流动性、两融与拥挤度压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 有资金，但被配给——对18%\"算力+电力\"超配的A股流动性、两融与拥挤度压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f771573d6662/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "510300.SH",
        "512100.SH",
        "588000.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-58f268edf9",
      "title": "隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-58f268edf9/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 半导体分析师研究记录：半导体板块在两融去杠杆及科技风格拥挤下的估值压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 半导体分析师研究记录：半导体板块在两融去杠杆及科技风格拥挤下的估值压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1f2589548131/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 因子研究员研究记录：FOMC后A股质量、价值、Beta与动量因子收益与资金拆解",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 因子研究员研究记录：FOMC后A股质量、价值、Beta与动量因子收益与资金拆解",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fff7766e8591/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688256.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688008.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-86be10e7fb",
      "title": "为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-86be10e7fb/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "summary": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a34ed8062cef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 首席策略师研究记录09：USD/CNY管理型区间与日元 Carry 拆仓凸性下的多资产对冲组合",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 首席策略师研究记录09：USD/CNY管理型区间与日元 Carry 拆仓凸性下的多资产对冲组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99dfb5d53df7/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "CVX",
        "XOM"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-24cd0b5ff9",
      "title": "在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-24cd0b5ff9/",
      "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a",
      "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 AI基础设施分析师研究记录：利率阈值、Hyperscaler AI Capex与电力交付压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 AI基础设施分析师研究记录：利率阈值、Hyperscaler AI Capex与电力交付压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-daf0cc3860ed/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 研究记录02：Hyperscaler capex 能转化，但电力最晚兑现",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 研究记录02：Hyperscaler capex 能转化，但电力最晚兑现",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cb50b999333/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "GOOGL",
        "AMZN",
        "NVDA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-03dab97a77",
      "title": "人民币稳定使当前应保留滞胀杠铃，但用黄金、久期与轻USD对冲把组合从单一A股Beta改造成可按黄/红档汇率阶梯再平衡的跨资产防御组合。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币稳定使当前应保留滞胀杠铃，但用黄金、久期与轻USD对冲把组合从单一A股Beta改造成可按黄/红档汇率阶梯再平衡的跨资产防御组合。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-03dab97a77/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "把 USDCNH / DXY / 离岸资金闸门翻译成 A股金融与价值因子的具体仓位",
          "summary": "把 USDCNH / DXY / 离岸资金闸门翻译成 A股金融与价值因子的具体仓位",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-951a3ff80d4e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "summary": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a34ed8062cef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-6ae5e48f60",
      "title": "折算率冲击目前更像高估值拥挤交易的局部去杠杆，而非已经形成全市场融资平仓链条。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 折算率冲击目前更像高估值拥挤交易的局部去杠杆，而非已经形成全市场融资平仓链条。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6ae5e48f60/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "两融去杠杆降温下的A股行业买回排序——2026-07-25",
          "summary": "研究记录 分析师: ashare-strategist（A股策略师）· 立场: synthesize 机构工作日: 2026-07-25（Asia/Singapore）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3559cdbf065a/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 半导体分析师研究记录：半导体板块在两融去杠杆及科技风格拥挤下的估值压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 半导体分析师研究记录：半导体板块在两融去杠杆及科技风格拥挤下的估值压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1f2589548131/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
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        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688008.SH"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-594ba5e705",
      "title": "在中美利差走阔且输入型AI信用冲击升级的情形下，USD/CNY能否守住6.85缓冲翻转线",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在中美利差走阔且输入型AI信用冲击升级的情形下，USD/CNY能否守住6.85缓冲翻转线",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-594ba5e705/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "summary": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a34ed8062cef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "把 USDCNH / DXY / 离岸资金闸门翻译成 A股金融与价值因子的具体仓位",
          "summary": "把 USDCNH / DXY / 离岸资金闸门翻译成 A股金融与价值因子的具体仓位",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-951a3ff80d4e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b3e89f22e6",
      "title": "在极端关税与30%原料通胀的压力下，全球电网设备（利用率98%、美交期128周）的硬约束赋予A股厂商极强的定价权与贸易规避弹性，其出口高…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在极端关税与30%原料通胀的压力下，全球电网设备（利用率98%、美交期128周）的硬约束赋予A股厂商极强的定价权与贸易规避弹性，其出口高…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b3e89f22e6/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "FOMC前A股半导体、电网设备与高股息组合的最终跨资产风险预算 (2026-07-25)",
          "summary": "FOMC前A股半导体、电网设备与高股息组合的最终跨资产风险预算 (2026-07-25)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8fb26eff5cc8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "FOMC后A股市场结构对电网设备和高技术硬件轮动的承接能力压力测试报告 (2026-07-25)",
          "summary": "FOMC后A股市场结构对电网设备和高技术硬件轮动的承接能力压力测试报告 (2026-07-25)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9f804450056c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "002028.SZ",
        "600089.SH",
        "601179.SH",
        "GEV",
        "688676.SH",
        "ETN",
        "000400.SZ"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-859ab241bf",
      "title": "依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-859ab241bf/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "先进封装与HBM产能：AI算力扩张的新瓶颈 — 2026-07-25",
          "summary": "作者：半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） 日期：2026-07-25 研究记录 立场：支持",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3315c3a3c4f8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 A股哑铃最终仓位配置决议：纳入半导体汇率敏感度、先进封装Capex节奏与前序三相闸门",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 A股哑铃最终仓位配置决议：纳入半导体汇率敏感度、先进封装Capex节奏与前序三相闸门",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-37c1e7b11058/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
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      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "NVDA",
        "ASML",
        "688012.SH",
        "000660.KS",
        "MU",
        "002916.SZ"
      ]
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    {
      "id": "thesis-413f4aecc1",
      "title": "长江电力等红利拥挤度处于95%历史极值，且股息率利差压缩至历史低点，而在跨境分段生产解禁及创新药商业化兑现下医药板块大涨，这是否标志着A…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 长江电力等红利拥挤度处于95%历史极值，且股息率利差压缩至历史低点，而在跨境分段生产解禁及创新药商业化兑现下医药板块大涨，这是否标志着A…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-413f4aecc1/",
      "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e",
      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "FOMC后AI电力通胀尾部的A股轮动方案，2026-07-25",
          "summary": "分析师：首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 权威工作日期： 2026-07-25 [D0] [D0] 研究记录 [D0] 立场：综合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4d4d3e13b855/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI电力瓶颈超级周期：A股与全球权益市场的估值重构、风格轮动与板块配置策略",
          "summary": "AI电力瓶颈超级周期：A股与全球权益市场的估值重构、风格轮动与板块配置策略",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7d0c89b2743f/",
          "stance": "risk",
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        }
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      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "600905.SH",
        "DUK"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-7a2fc614c1",
      "title": "在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a2fc614c1/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "FOMC前A股半导体、电网设备与高股息组合的最终跨资产风险预算 (2026-07-25)",
          "summary": "FOMC前A股半导体、电网设备与高股息组合的最终跨资产风险预算 (2026-07-25)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8fb26eff5cc8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 有资金，但被配给——对18%\"算力+电力\"超配的A股流动性、两融与拥挤度压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 有资金，但被配给——对18%\"算力+电力\"超配的A股流动性、两融与拥挤度压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f771573d6662/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "002028.SZ",
        "600089.SH",
        "601179.SH",
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "CEG",
        "VST"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-77134b90a1",
      "title": "2026年7月拐点：7月24日Section 122关税悬崖与2026年伊朗战争能源冲击消退相撞，如何把美联储钉在“更高更久”",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年7月拐点：7月24日Section 122关税悬崖与2026年伊朗战争能源冲击消退相撞，如何把美联储钉在“更高更久”",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-77134b90a1/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储—日本央行政策背离与日元处于世代低位：通往 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC 的套息平仓风险",
          "summary": "美联储—日本央行政策背离与日元处于世代低位：通往 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC 的套息平仓风险",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f4f6af1cf818/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "FOMC议息前夕全球宏观分析：通胀粘性、算力投资韧性与央行政策路径的再定价",
          "summary": "FOMC议息前夕全球宏观分析：通胀粘性、算力投资韧性与央行政策路径的再定价",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f86e3b6cf53a/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-56d9baf47d",
      "title": "2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-56d9baf47d/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储—日本央行政策背离与日元处于世代低位：通往 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC 的套息平仓风险",
          "summary": "美联储—日本央行政策背离与日元处于世代低位：通往 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC 的套息平仓风险",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f4f6af1cf818/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 前序研究：Brent突破110美元尾部下的通胀预期叙事与全球政策路径",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 前序研究：Brent突破110美元尾部下的通胀预期叙事与全球政策路径",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-364db6a4ff0d/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f9ce8d294d",
      "title": "人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f9ce8d294d/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "summary": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a34ed8062cef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇...",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇治理",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b7d84d91c2d9/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-0a0d09421e",
      "title": "AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0a0d09421e/",
      "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a",
      "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026年云巨头AI资本开支突破7000亿美元与数据中心电力供应瓶颈分析",
          "summary": "2026年云巨头AI资本开支突破7000亿美元与数据中心电力供应瓶颈分析",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8c5915f6c474/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 电力约束向硅片层传导：每token功耗是否结构性加速定制推理ASIC对通用GPU的替代？",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 电力约束向硅片层传导：每token功耗是否结构性加速定制推理ASIC对通用GPU的替代？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5bd7cf6a6088/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "NVDA",
        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-34ed317472",
      "title": "A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-34ed317472/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 有资金，但被配给——对18%\"算力+电力\"超配的A股流动性、两融与拥挤度压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 有资金，但被配给——对18%\"算力+电力\"超配的A股流动性、两融与拥挤度压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f771573d6662/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 合规无虞A股机器人复利者篮子的境内执行：被动/ETF纳入、两融与解禁",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 合规无虞A股机器人复利者篮子的境内执行：被动/ETF纳入、两融与解禁",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c23dc113c476/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "588000.SH",
        "510300.SH",
        "512100.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-83a30b141f",
      "title": "美伊直接交火导致原油暴涨5-6%，布伦特突破79美元逼近80。这是否会引燃二次通胀，推翻债市对美联储‘因分裂而暂停加息’的假设，并在9月…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美伊直接交火导致原油暴涨5-6%，布伦特突破79美元逼近80。这是否会引燃二次通胀，推翻债市对美联储‘因分裂而暂停加息’的假设，并在9月…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-83a30b141f/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "强美元压力测试：名义再通胀，还是亚洲流动性挤压",
          "summary": "研究记录 · Board fd509432 · 全球宏观分析师 · 工作日期：2026-07-25（Asia/Singapore） 主题： 若7月FOMC后DXY突破102.5-103，油价/利率冲击是否仍利好A股价值，还是转为美元流动性挤压？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-32f2b72bea10/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 前序研究：Brent突破110美元尾部下的通胀预期叙事与全球政策路径",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 前序研究：Brent突破110美元尾部下的通胀预期叙事与全球政策路径",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-364db6a4ff0d/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
        "0883.HK"
      ]
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    {
      "id": "thesis-8bbbcdf5a4",
      "title": "GPU、HBM 与先进封装决定 AI 资本开支供给节奏",
      "titleEn": "GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging shape the AI capex supply cycle",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8bbbcdf5a4/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "先进封装与HBM产能：AI算力扩张的新瓶颈 — 2026-07-25",
          "summary": "作者：半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） 日期：2026-07-25 研究记录 立场：支持",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3315c3a3c4f8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 电力约束向硅片层传导：每token功耗是否结构性加速定制推理ASIC对通用GPU的替代？",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 电力约束向硅片层传导：每token功耗是否结构性加速定制推理ASIC对通用GPU的替代？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5bd7cf6a6088/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "META",
        "AMD",
        "AVGO",
        "MU",
        "MSFT",
        "000660.KS",
        "GOOGL",
        "AMZN"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-025e4c0d2d",
      "title": "复合材料业务修复向利润增长传导",
      "titleEn": "Composite-Materials Recovery Transmits into Earnings Growth",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-025e4c0d2d/",
      "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80",
      "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 64,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "公用事业分析师专题研究报告：变现Time-to-Power稀缺性——AI时代下的专营公用事业、电网设备与绿...",
          "summary": "公用事业分析师专题研究报告：变现Time-to-Power稀缺性——AI时代下的专营公用事业、电网设备与绿电整合受益格局",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-83c4f79c5e55/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-2027年全球通胀预期与真实利率路径的定量评估 — 能源成本与AI资本开支对长期中性利率(r )及...",
          "summary": "2026-2027年全球通胀预期与真实利率路径的定量评估 — 能源成本与AI资本开支对长期中性利率(r )及货币政策转向空间的双重重构",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8628a2564892/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "300274.SZ",
        "002028.SZ",
        "300750.SZ",
        "002080.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-029ce03da1",
      "title": "MSCI 调整窗口是被动资金与主动减仓相互博弈的流动性事件",
      "titleEn": "MSCI rebalance windows are liquidity events where passive demand meets active exits",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-029ce03da1/",
      "laneId": "lane_122bdfde6ea9",
      "lane": "指数调仓/被动资金事件",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/index-rebalance-and-passive-flow-events/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 64,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 全球宏观/外汇研究记录：支撑A股质量/价值资金流的USD/CNY稳定区间",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 全球宏观/外汇研究记录：支撑A股质量/价值资金流的USD/CNY稳定区间",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1a0dfa6340de/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "应急链组合的因子拥挤分解与动能反转择时",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 因子研究员（ factor-analyst ） 工作日期（Asia/Singapore）： 2026-07-25 · 立场： 压力测试（承接研究记录 04 的市场结构择时） 当值手（selected hand）： claude",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f37088e61dcb/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
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      "stockTickers": [
        "0700.HK",
        "9988.HK",
        "KWEB",
        "300308.SZ",
        "510300.SH",
        "2800.HK",
        "0981.HK",
        "3690.HK",
        "600900.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4b3b37e207",
      "title": "散户情绪与北向资金背离是 A 股风险偏好的关键温度计",
      "titleEn": "Retail sentiment versus northbound flow divergence is the key A-share risk thermometer",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b3b37e207/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 62,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "交通分腿的A股市场结构执行与拥挤度校验",
          "summary": "研究记录 · A股策略师 · 工作日：2026-07-25（Asia/Singapore）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-477592a5f86b/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "首席策略师研究研究记录 - 2026-07-25",
          "summary": "截至研究所权威工作日 2026-07-25，本报告片基于 research note 至 research note 的宏观、资产配置与因子压力测试结论，构建 2026-07-28 至 2026-07-29 FOMC 决议后 [S1] A 股两融资金流、ETF...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-33c50690c489/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "588000.SH",
        "300308.SZ",
        "300750.SZ",
        "600519.SH",
        "159915.SZ",
        "510300.SH",
        "688256.SH",
        "600900.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-cb2ab35c55",
      "title": "AI 基础设施扩张从规模驱动切换到 TCO、能效和利用率筛选",
      "titleEn": "AI infrastructure expansion is shifting from scale to TCO, power efficiency, and utilization screening",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-cb2ab35c55/",
      "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87",
      "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 58,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "研究记录10：GPU/HBM供应与可通电站点约束，2026-07-25",
          "summary": "分析师： 半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） 工作日期： 2026-07-25（Asia/Singapore）[自测算：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-25] 研究线程标识：已归档",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-93feca6022f0/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026年超大规模科技公司AI基础设施资本开支与电网瓶颈：TCO演进与结构性重塑",
          "summary": "2026年超大规模科技公司AI基础设施资本开支与电网瓶颈：TCO演进与结构性重塑",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d21fecdaf3da/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "AMD",
        "META",
        "MU",
        "MSFT",
        "AVGO",
        "VRT",
        "000660.KS",
        "DELL"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-42faeae623",
      "title": "CPO、光互联与铜连接决定 AI 集群内部租金迁移",
      "titleEn": "CPO, optical interconnect, and copper links define rent migration inside AI clusters",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-42faeae623/",
      "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956",
      "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 55,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 AI基础设施分析师研究记录：AI算力基础设施 Capex 持续性、算力集群扩建与瓶颈环节订单...",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 AI基础设施分析师研究记录：AI算力基础设施 Capex 持续性、算力集群扩建与瓶颈环节订单验证",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e10b9f9ba95e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 电力约束向硅片层传导：每token功耗是否结构性加速定制推理ASIC对通用GPU的替代？",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 电力约束向硅片层传导：每token功耗是否结构性加速定制推理ASIC对通用GPU的替代？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5bd7cf6a6088/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "300308.SZ",
        "NVDA",
        "AVGO",
        "META",
        "COHR",
        "LITE",
        "300394.SZ",
        "MRVL",
        "TSM",
        "MSFT"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-fd31cc177b",
      "title": "债券供给、地方债与久期需求决定利率下行空间",
      "titleEn": "Bond supply, local-government debt, and duration demand define room for rates to fall",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fd31cc177b/",
      "laneId": "lane_6fbf93c613f9",
      "lane": "债券供给/银行久期",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/bond-supply-and-bank-duration/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 54,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "中国利率路径是让久期腿与约6%股息套息双赢的可持续通缩，还是会逼迫二选一的再通胀/陡峭化陷阱？",
          "summary": "中国利率路径是让久期腿与约6%股息套息双赢的可持续通缩，还是会逼迫二选一的再通胀/陡峭化陷阱？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-97ab4f0879fc/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "1.40%净息差地板上的中国银行股：红利锚还是脆弱carry？",
          "summary": "金融行业分析师 — 研究研究记录 研究院工作日：2026-07-25（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：stress-test",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0f72fb95d282/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "601398.SH",
        "601939.SH",
        "601288.SH",
        "3988.HK",
        "600900.SH",
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "000001.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-08dd090dc9",
      "title": "公用事业从防御红利切换到电网扩容、容量费与信用再定价",
      "titleEn": "Utilities are shifting from defensive dividends to grid expansion, capacity fees, and credit repricing",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08dd090dc9/",
      "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e",
      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 53,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI数据中心电价飙升、公用事业速率基数重估与PPA溢价",
          "summary": "分析师 : 公用事业分析师 ( utilities-analyst ) 权威工作日期 : 2026-07-25 [D0] [D0] 研究记录 [D0] 共享[D0] 立场 : 支持",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-55ff9098e304/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 公用事业电费基数重估、PPA 定价机制与厂区自备微电网审批",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 公用事业电费基数重估、PPA 定价机制与厂区自备微电网审批",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0f92aa873ec3/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "AEP",
        "600900.SH",
        "CEG",
        "DUK",
        "VST",
        "XLU",
        "META",
        "NEE",
        "SMR",
        "GEV"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-51c6d833ae",
      "title": "食品加工的机会从食品通胀切换到原料波动、渠道库存与 B 端标准化",
      "titleEn": "Food processing opportunities are shifting from food inflation to input volatility, channel inventory, and B-side sta...",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-51c6d833ae/",
      "laneId": "lane_13d7ced85300",
      "lane": "食品加工/成本传导",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-processing-and-input-cost-transmission/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 50,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "需求闸门验证：6月社零/餐饮收入/食品CPI能否触发 th p 109a0310 的食品加工调仓？",
          "summary": "需求闸门验证：6月社零/餐饮收入/食品CPI能否触发 th p 109a0310 的食品加工调仓？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9f8d2648a11a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "食品产业链 —— 低覆盖标的与跨链成本二分",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师：agri-analyst（农业行业分析师） 工作日期：2026-07-25（Asia/Singapore）· 立场：initial",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-76ca97eee431/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "001215.SZ",
        "600298.SH",
        "300973.SZ",
        "603345.SH",
        "603027.SH",
        "002991.SZ",
        "603317.SH",
        "002847.SZ",
        "ADM"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-740e729f22",
      "title": "人民币、美元与套息交易决定跨境风险资产的流动性折价",
      "titleEn": "RMB, USD, and carry trades define the liquidity discount across cross-border risk assets",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-740e729f22/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 47,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇...",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇治理",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b7d84d91c2d9/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "日元套息平仓对人民币与 A 股高 beta 资金流的外溢传导：压力测试",
          "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） 工作日期： 2026-07-25（Asia/Singapore）· 研究记录 承接： 研究记录 01（global-macro，美联储—日本央行背离与...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dc5240ad1e76/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "CME",
        "3988.HK",
        "0700.HK",
        "UUP",
        "2800.HK",
        "9988.HK",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f23572dfb8",
      "title": "Advance th_p_2ca41751 (能源价格冲突引发的全球通胀路径分化): 若 Brent 在停火提案与航运威胁之间维持 85…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Advance th_p_2ca41751 (能源价格冲突引发的全球通胀路径分化): 若 Brent 在停火提案与航运威胁之间维持 85…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f23572dfb8/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 前序研究：对Brent突破10触发35/25/15/25防御性切换路径的压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 前序研究：对Brent突破10触发35/25/15/25防御性切换路径的压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-260e85d930b3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "0857.HK",
        "SLB"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-5a0bd732f3",
      "title": "A股杠铃策略应落地为“红利蓝筹压舱 + 硬科技成长进攻 + 轮动仓位调节”的三层结构，两融是成长端驱动力，ETF赎回和限售股解禁是仓位上限。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股杠铃策略应落地为“红利蓝筹压舱 + 硬科技成长进攻 + 轮动仓位调节”的三层结构，两融是成长端驱动力，ETF赎回和限售股解禁是仓位上限。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5a0bd732f3/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 A股策略研究记录：两融压力与红利低波、硬科技双主线博弈",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 A股策略研究记录：两融压力与红利低波、硬科技双主线博弈",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ebbe2898882e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "588000.SH",
        "510300.SH",
        "300750.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-950a54ea98",
      "title": "保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-950a54ea98/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "summary": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a34ed8062cef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-80c15f4a7d",
      "title": "再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-80c15f4a7d/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美元/日元与 CNH–日元交叉盘套息平仓的战术拆解：痛点阈值、传导路径与期权隐含偏斜",
          "summary": "美元/日元与 CNH–日元交叉盘套息平仓的战术拆解：痛点阈值、传导路径与期权隐含偏斜",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-feeb616b6447/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-07b4ef2695",
      "title": "地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-07b4ef2695/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "供给冲击下的美联储反应函数——面对双峰油价，是看穿，还是加固鹰派按兵不动",
          "summary": "供给冲击下的美联储反应函数——面对双峰油价，是看穿，还是加固鹰派按兵不动",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-241de0664379/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "CVX",
        "XOM"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a4bf9a5c22",
      "title": "在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a4bf9a5c22/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 半导体分析师研究记录：半导体板块在两融去杠杆及科技风格拥挤下的估值压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 半导体分析师研究记录：半导体板块在两融去杠杆及科技风格拥挤下的估值压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1f2589548131/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688256.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688012.SH",
        "688041.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "588000.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a3440bf2a4",
      "title": "中东停火信号下的油价风险应如何重定价",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中东停火信号下的油价风险应如何重定价",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a3440bf2a4/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "供给冲击下的美联储反应函数——面对双峰油价，是看穿，还是加固鹰派按兵不动",
          "summary": "供给冲击下的美联储反应函数——面对双峰油价，是看穿，还是加固鹰派按兵不动",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-241de0664379/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "SLB",
        "OXY"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-0e8748c14f",
      "title": "科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e8748c14f/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 半导体分析师研究记录：半导体板块在两融去杠杆及科技风格拥挤下的估值压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 半导体分析师研究记录：半导体板块在两融去杠杆及科技风格拥挤下的估值压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1f2589548131/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688256.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "688012.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e58a9e8746",
      "title": "日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e58a9e8746/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 首席风控官研究记录10：USD/CNY区间波动与日元Carry拆仓情景下的头寸级回撤与保证金压...",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 首席风控官研究记录10：USD/CNY区间波动与日元Carry拆仓情景下的头寸级回撤与保证金压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-580d40c2019e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a13f19ec2d",
      "title": "红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a13f19ec2d/",
      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 A股策略研究记录：两融压力与红利低波、硬科技双主线博弈",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 A股策略研究记录：两融压力与红利低波、硬科技双主线博弈",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ebbe2898882e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "601398.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "510880.SH",
        "600941.SH",
        "601088.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-dfa08317f5",
      "title": "博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-dfa08317f5/",
      "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956",
      "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 半导体分析师研究记录：半导体板块在两融去杠杆及科技风格拥挤下的估值压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 半导体分析师研究记录：半导体板块在两融去杠杆及科技风格拥挤下的估值压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1f2589548131/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "300308.SZ",
        "300394.SZ",
        "300502.SZ"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-30acb22a10",
      "title": "电气设备与电力变压器OEM在跨部门稀缺下的定价权与产能填缺口时点",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电气设备与电力变压器OEM在跨部门稀缺下的定价权与产能填缺口时点",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-30acb22a10/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI数据中心的区域电力可得性与电网设备定价权",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 公用事业分析师 · 立场： 压力测试 工作日期： 2026-07-25（亚洲/新加坡） · 根议题： AI资本开支三方分歧——做多半导体、做空平台，还是论点根本没变？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e86fdb633359/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "002028.SZ",
        "600089.SH",
        "601179.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-5c45703323",
      "title": "AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5c45703323/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 AI基础设施分析师研究记录：利率阈值、Hyperscaler AI Capex与电力交付压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 AI基础设施分析师研究记录：利率阈值、Hyperscaler AI Capex与电力交付压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-daf0cc3860ed/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "NVDA",
        "AMD",
        "MU",
        "AVGO",
        "TSM",
        "000660.KS"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-0011ad682c",
      "title": "美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0011ad682c/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "红利 carry、久期、再通胀 beta 与 USD/JPY 尾部对冲的触发式规则",
          "summary": "红利 carry、久期、再通胀 beta 与 USD/JPY 尾部对冲的触发式规则",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-128ce6ad4f25/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "JPM",
        "TLT",
        "IEF"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3cafa5bcd5",
      "title": "在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cafa5bcd5/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 全球宏观/外汇研究记录：支撑A股质量/价值资金流的USD/CNY稳定区间",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 全球宏观/外汇研究记录：支撑A股质量/价值资金流的USD/CNY稳定区间",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1a0dfa6340de/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-8ca3d181f3",
      "title": "能源价格重心的下移提供了一次缓和全球“滞胀”压力的正向供给冲击，虽然成功消解了美欧央行的强行加息风险，但在低储蓄率、物流滞后与-273…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源价格重心的下移提供了一次缓和全球“滞胀”压力的正向供给冲击，虽然成功消解了美欧央行的强行加息风险，但在低储蓄率、物流滞后与-273…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8ca3d181f3/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 前序研究：Brent突破110美元尾部下的通胀预期叙事与全球政策路径",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 前序研究：Brent突破110美元尾部下的通胀预期叙事与全球政策路径",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-364db6a4ff0d/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-5be4c31f4e",
      "title": "6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5be4c31f4e/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储—日本央行政策背离与日元处于世代低位：通往 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC 的套息平仓风险",
          "summary": "美联储—日本央行政策背离与日元处于世代低位：通往 7 月 28–29 日 FOMC 的套息平仓风险",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f4f6af1cf818/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4be65dd130",
      "title": "基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4be65dd130/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "供给冲击下的美联储反应函数——面对双峰油价，是看穿，还是加固鹰派按兵不动",
          "summary": "供给冲击下的美联储反应函数——面对双峰油价，是看穿，还是加固鹰派按兵不动",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-241de0664379/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
        "0883.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-97f10202a2",
      "title": "中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-97f10202a2/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇...",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇治理",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b7d84d91c2d9/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-db4939d8d8",
      "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db4939d8d8/",
      "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708",
      "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI数据中心电价飙升、公用事业速率基数重估与PPA溢价",
          "summary": "分析师 : 公用事业分析师 ( utilities-analyst ) 权威工作日期 : 2026-07-25 [D0] [D0] 研究记录 [D0] 共享[D0] 立场 : 支持",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-55ff9098e304/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "CEG",
        "VST",
        "ETN"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-91cfb3e0f8",
      "title": "外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-91cfb3e0f8/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 压力测试：境内折算率、维持担保比例与A股两融踩踏线",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 压力测试：境内折算率、维持担保比例与A股两融踩踏线",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-979eceaac76a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "KRE",
        "TLT",
        "IEF"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-2ee6c1cf01",
      "title": "39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2ee6c1cf01/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "summary": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a34ed8062cef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3156277f22",
      "title": "哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3156277f22/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "summary": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a34ed8062cef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e12bcc0d59",
      "title": "PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e12bcc0d59/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 A股策略研究记录：两融压力与红利低波、硬科技双主线博弈",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 A股策略研究记录：两融压力与红利低波、硬科技双主线博弈",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ebbe2898882e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "588000.SH",
        "510300.SH",
        "512100.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-db003202fc",
      "title": "国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db003202fc/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "summary": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a34ed8062cef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-ace402c8b6",
      "title": "科创板极端护盘对A股整体流动性的虹吸效应与跨板块资产配置调整 研究日期： 2026 05 22 作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Str…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创板极端护盘对A股整体流动性的虹吸效应与跨板块资产配置调整 研究日期： 2026 05 22 作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Str…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ace402c8b6/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 首席策略师研究记录：基于 AI 算力订单兑现与美债/两融止跌信号下的 A 股战术风格切换...",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 首席策略师研究记录：基于 AI 算力订单兑现与美债/两融止跌信号下的 A 股战术风格切换与行业配置重构",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a6efa16f8a6e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "P",
        "TLT",
        "IEF"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a7f43e67af",
      "title": "在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a7f43e67af/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 全球宏观开局：7月FOMC面对的是油价冲击，而不是干净的通胀下行信号",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 全球宏观开局：7月FOMC面对的是油价冲击，而不是干净的通胀下行信号",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-97df383440c1/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
        "0883.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-94e0c46a69",
      "title": "USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-94e0c46a69/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "summary": "7月FOMC后USD/CNY汇率防御防线、离岸CNH流动性挤压与跨国 Carry Trade 平仓尾部风险传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a34ed8062cef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-979591277f",
      "title": "能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-979591277f/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇...",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 全球宏观研究记录08：USD/CNY、离岸人民币流动性、日元 Carry Trade 拆仓与多币种外汇治理",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b7d84d91c2d9/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-9cd2a72630",
      "title": "在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9cd2a72630/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "供给冲击下的美联储反应函数——面对双峰油价，是看穿，还是加固鹰派按兵不动",
          "summary": "供给冲击下的美联储反应函数——面对双峰油价，是看穿，还是加固鹰派按兵不动",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-241de0664379/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "JPM",
        "TLT",
        "IEF"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-250964b5dc",
      "title": "强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-250964b5dc/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "把 USDCNH / DXY / 离岸资金闸门翻译成 A股金融与价值因子的具体仓位",
          "summary": "把 USDCNH / DXY / 离岸资金闸门翻译成 A股金融与价值因子的具体仓位",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-951a3ff80d4e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-0bad2eebc1",
      "title": "北美大型云厂商因53个月并网等待和PJM容量价格触及上限，面临80-290bn的Capex下修延期压力，这如何重塑全球AI算力及AS…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 北美大型云厂商因53个月并网等待和PJM容量价格触及上限，面临80-290bn的Capex下修延期压力，这如何重塑全球AI算力及AS…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0bad2eebc1/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 有资金，但被配给——对18%\"算力+电力\"超配的A股流动性、两融与拥挤度压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 有资金，但被配给——对18%\"算力+电力\"超配的A股流动性、两融与拥挤度压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f771573d6662/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "002028.SZ",
        "600089.SH",
        "ETN",
        "CEG",
        "601179.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-820459973e",
      "title": "在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-820459973e/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "FOMC前A股半导体、电网设备与高股息组合的最终跨资产风险预算 (2026-07-25)",
          "summary": "FOMC前A股半导体、电网设备与高股息组合的最终跨资产风险预算 (2026-07-25)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8fb26eff5cc8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "002028.SZ",
        "ETN",
        "601179.SH",
        "600089.SH",
        "CEG",
        "VST"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-c71e511c1c",
      "title": "电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c71e511c1c/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "先进封装与HBM产能：AI算力扩张的新瓶颈 — 2026-07-25",
          "summary": "作者：半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） 日期：2026-07-25 研究记录 立场：支持",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3315c3a3c4f8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "PWR"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0",
      "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层",
      "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/",
      "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a",
      "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 AI基础设施分析师研究记录：AI算力基础设施 Capex 持续性、算力集群扩建与瓶颈环节订单...",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 AI基础设施分析师研究记录：AI算力基础设施 Capex 持续性、算力集群扩建与瓶颈环节订单验证",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e10b9f9ba95e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "NVDA",
        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL",
        "TSM",
        "AVGO",
        "AAPL",
        "TSLA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-40b8638803",
      "title": "全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-40b8638803/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "先进封装与HBM产能：AI算力扩张的新瓶颈 — 2026-07-25",
          "summary": "作者：半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） 日期：2026-07-25 研究记录 立场：支持",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3315c3a3c4f8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "000660.KS",
        "MU",
        "688012.SH",
        "ASML"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-df608ec2a1",
      "title": "AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-df608ec2a1/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "压力测试\"再通胀 beta\"：AI 基础设施的电力/电网瓶颈是否把它变成成本推动而非需求驱动？",
          "summary": "压力测试\"再通胀 beta\"：AI 基础设施的电力/电网瓶颈是否把它变成成本推动而非需求驱动？",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "688676.SH",
        "VST"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-612f83a611",
      "title": "地缘原油冲击导致的通胀传导（推升核心PCE至4.16%）将促使无前瞻指引的沃什美联储通过在9月和年底连续加息两次（至4.00%–4.25…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘原油冲击导致的通胀传导（推升核心PCE至4.16%）将促使无前瞻指引的沃什美联储通过在9月和年底连续加息两次（至4.00%–4.25…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-612f83a611/",
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      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
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          "title": "FOMC议息前夕全球宏观分析：通胀粘性、算力投资韧性与央行政策路径的再定价",
          "summary": "FOMC议息前夕全球宏观分析：通胀粘性、算力投资韧性与央行政策路径的再定价",
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      "title": "酒店餐饮休闲复苏正在从客流修复转向 RevPAR、翻台率与小盘 Alpha",
      "titleEn": "Leisure, hotels, and restaurants are moving from traffic recovery to RevPAR, table turnover, and small-cap alpha",
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      "laneId": "lane_dd5a3eb17672",
      "lane": "酒店餐饮休闲/服务消费",
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "需求闸门验证：6月社零/餐饮收入/食品CPI能否触发 th p 109a0310 的食品加工调仓？",
          "summary": "需求闸门验证：6月社零/餐饮收入/食品CPI能否触发 th p 109a0310 的食品加工调仓？",
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      "id": "thesis-100e81e234",
      "title": "AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…",
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "先进封装与HBM产能：AI算力扩张的新瓶颈 — 2026-07-25",
          "summary": "作者：半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） 日期：2026-07-25 研究记录 立场：支持",
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      "title": "Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 1,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
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        {
          "title": "FOMC议息前夕全球宏观分析：通胀粘性、算力投资韧性与央行政策路径的再定价",
          "summary": "FOMC议息前夕全球宏观分析：通胀粘性、算力投资韧性与央行政策路径的再定价",
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      "titleEn": "The smart-driving supplier inflection depends on program conversion and margin recovery",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cb5657bb3/",
      "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da",
      "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/",
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      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 - 负 Gamma 如何把 capex 重估放大为周一跳空风险",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 - 负 Gamma 如何把 capex 重估放大为周一跳空风险",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-67ae7113903a/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "NVDA",
        "GOOGL",
        "1274.HK",
        "002594.SZ",
        "XPEV"
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      "title": "2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4e383ee09c/",
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-25 研究记录02：Hyperscaler capex 能转化，但电力最晚兑现",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 研究记录02：Hyperscaler capex 能转化，但电力最晚兑现",
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      "title": "消费降级、健康刚需与银发经济正在重塑防御型增长",
      "titleEn": "Consumer downgrade, healthcare necessities, and the silver economy are reshaping defensive growth",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8b8ede3135/",
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          "title": "2026-07-25 25%政策关联型消费服务仓位的微观验证与渠道库存审计",
          "summary": "2026-07-25 25%政策关联型消费服务仓位的微观验证与渠道库存审计",
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    {
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      "title": "A 股半导体的核心风险从订单验证转向 A/H 溢价、两融与负 Gamma",
      "titleEn": "A-share semiconductor risk is shifting from order proof to A/H premium, margin financing, and negative gamma",
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      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
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          "summary": "2026-07-25 半导体分析师研究记录：半导体板块在两融去杠杆及科技风格拥挤下的估值压力测试",
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      "titleEn": "Property, land finance, and REITs are the slow variables behind China's credit floor",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-741d1d6f34/",
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      "titleEn": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证",
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      "titleEn": "Hog cycle, grain, and agricultural prices define the elasticity of China's low-inflation repair",
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          "title": "食品产业链 —— 低覆盖标的与跨链成本二分",
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      "titleEn": "Aerospace and defense supply-chain mismatch is creating policy-driven manufacturing beta",
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          "title": "2026-07-25 — AI信用综合体作为跨资产传导渠道",
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      "title": "自动驾驶与 Robotaxi 主题必须从演示热度进入单位经济和监管城市扩张验证",
      "titleEn": "Autonomous driving and robotaxi themes must move from demo excitement to unit economics and regulated city expansion",
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      "name": "Meta Platforms",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/META/",
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      "eventCount": 37,
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        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
        "AI 算力半导体",
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      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "MU",
      "name": "Micron",
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      "href": "/investor/stocks/MU/",
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    {
      "ticker": "000660.KS",
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    },
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      "ticker": "MSFT",
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    },
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      "ticker": "600900.SH",
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      "market": "A-share",
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      "eventCount": 25,
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        "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
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        "指数调仓/被动资金事件",
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        "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "588000.SH",
      "name": "科创50 ETF",
      "market": "A-share ETF",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/588000.SH/",
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      "eventCount": 24,
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        "A股风险偏好/两融",
        "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
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        "中国权益流动性"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "TLT",
      "name": "iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF",
      "market": "US ETF",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/TLT/",
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      "eventCount": 22,
      "lanes": [
        "美债利率/美元再定价",
        "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产",
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      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "AMZN",
      "name": "Amazon",
      "market": "US",
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      "eventCount": 21,
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        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
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    },
    {
      "ticker": "688012.SH",
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      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "GEV",
      "name": "GE Vernova",
      "market": "US",
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      "lanes": [
        "AI 电力/电网设备",
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        "能源转型/储能光伏"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "0883.HK",
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      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "CEG",
      "name": "Constellation Energy",
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      "href": "/investor/stocks/CEG/",
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        "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
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      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "ETN",
      "name": "Eaton",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/ETN/",
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    },
    {
      "ticker": "IEF",
      "name": "iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF",
      "market": "US ETF",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/IEF/",
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        "债券供给/银行久期"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "688981.SH",
      "name": "中芯国际",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/688981.SH/",
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      "eventCount": 14,
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        "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
        "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "SLB",
      "name": "SLB",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/SLB/",
      "thesisCount": 8,
      "eventCount": 14,
      "lanes": [
        "油气/地缘通胀"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "GOOGL",
      "name": "Alphabet",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/GOOGL/",
      "thesisCount": 8,
      "eventCount": 14,
      "lanes": [
        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
        "AI 算力半导体",
        "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济",
        "AI 软件效率/生产率",
        "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "AVGO",
      "name": "Broadcom",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/AVGO/",
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        "AI 算力半导体",
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      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "AMD",
      "name": "AMD",
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      "href": "/investor/stocks/AMD/",
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    },
    {
      "ticker": "VST",
      "name": "Vistra",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/VST/",
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      "lanes": [
        "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
        "AI 电力/电网设备",
        "公用事业/电网信用",
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      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "510300.SH",
      "name": "沪深300 ETF",
      "market": "A-share ETF",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/510300.SH/",
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      "lanes": [
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        "指数调仓/被动资金事件",
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    },
    {
      "ticker": "OXY",
      "name": "Occidental Petroleum",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/OXY/",
      "thesisCount": 7,
      "eventCount": 13,
      "lanes": [
        "油气/地缘通胀"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "ASML",
      "name": "ASML",
      "market": "US ADR",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/ASML/",
      "thesisCount": 5,
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      "lanes": [
        "先进封装/HBM4 闸门"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "002028.SZ",
      "name": "思源电气",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/002028.SZ/",
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      "lanes": [
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      ]
    },
    {
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      "lanes": [
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        "A股风险偏好/两融"
      ]
    },
    {
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      ]
    },
    {
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      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "TSLA",
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      "href": "/investor/stocks/TSLA/",
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      "lanes": [
        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
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        "具身智能/机器人零部件"
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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        "指数调仓/被动资金事件",
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    },
    {
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      "lanes": [
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      ]
    },
    {
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      "lanes": [
        "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "601398.SH",
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      "href": "/investor/stocks/601398.SH/",
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      "lanes": [
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        "债券供给/银行久期"
      ]
    },
    {
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      "name": "Utilities Select Sector SPDR",
      "market": "US ETF",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/XLU/",
      "thesisCount": 3,
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      "lanes": [
        "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产",
        "公用事业/电网信用"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "AEP",
      "name": "American Electric Power",
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      "href": "/investor/stocks/AEP/",
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        "云厂商自发电/电力资产"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "personas": [],
  "episodes": [],
  "milestones": [],
  "topicCounts": [
    {
      "id": "macro-rates",
      "labelZh": "宏观、通胀与利率",
      "labelEn": "Macro, inflation and rates",
      "color": "red",
      "keywords": [
        "宏观",
        "通胀",
        "inflation",
        "利率",
        "yield",
        "美联储",
        "fed",
        "cpi",
        "pce",
        "美元"
      ],
      "count": 179
    },
    {
      "id": "power-grid",
      "labelZh": "电力与电网",
      "labelEn": "Power and grid",
      "color": "green",
      "keywords": [
        "电力",
        "电网",
        "power",
        "grid",
        "变压器",
        "并网",
        "ppa",
        "核电",
        "电气设备"
      ],
      "count": 34
    },
    {
      "id": "ai-infrastructure",
      "labelZh": "AI 基础设施",
      "labelEn": "AI infrastructure",
      "color": "blue",
      "keywords": [
        "ai 基础设施",
        "ai infrastructure",
        "算力",
        "gpu",
        "数据中心",
        "data center",
        "nvda",
        "nvidia"
      ],
      "count": 29
    },
    {
      "id": "semis-memory",
      "labelZh": "半导体、存储与光互联",
      "labelEn": "Semis, memory and optical",
      "color": "yellow",
      "keywords": [
        "半导体",
        "hbm",
        "存储",
        "memory",
        "cpo",
        "光模块",
        "先进封装",
        "micron",
        "mu"
      ],
      "count": 10
    },
    {
      "id": "risk-portfolio",
      "labelZh": "风险与组合",
      "labelEn": "Risk and portfolio",
      "color": "red",
      "keywords": [
        "风险",
        "组合",
        "对冲",
        "波动率",
        "期权",
        "portfolio",
        "hedge",
        "volatility",
        "risk budget"
      ],
      "count": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "china-assets",
      "labelZh": "中国资产与市场结构",
      "labelEn": "China assets and market structure",
      "color": "orange",
      "keywords": [
        "a股",
        "港股",
        "科创50",
        "star50",
        "中国资产",
        "msci",
        "两融",
        "人民币"
      ],
      "count": 2
    }
  ],
  "analystCounts": [
    {
      "label": "未识别",
      "count": 257
    }
  ],
  "categoryCounts": [
    {
      "label": "其他",
      "count": 257
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "contemporaneous": true,
    "note": "This day view is assembled from public, date-stamped AI Institute research contracts."
  }
}