{
  "schema": "researchos.hundred_days.day.v1",
  "date": "2026-07-18",
  "dayNumber": 88,
  "status": "featured",
  "headline": "2026-07-18 每日综合：电力稀缺从设备交期升级为成本分配与算力兑现问题",
  "summary": "今日真正新增的决策变量不是电力链继续高热，而是瓶颈的经济归属和替代路径被拆开：设备商出售稀缺产能槽位，已并网核电与商业电厂出售确定电量，受监管公用事业只能获得受核准回报，而云厂商及居民分别承担合同成本与监管外溢。与此同时，自备电源并未消除 time-to-power，只把等待转移到燃机档期、燃料管道和地方许可；因此算力估值应从名义GPU数量进一步收紧到已通电、可冷却且有合同需求的兆瓦。对半导体的约束判断也更清晰：2026年经营数据尚不支持订单崩塌，GPU仍是主干，自研ASIC和算力租赁是增量分支；但7月29日前后…",
  "dominantTopic": {
    "id": "macro-rates",
    "labelZh": "宏观、通胀与利率",
    "labelEn": "Macro, inflation and rates",
    "color": "red",
    "keywords": [
      "宏观",
      "通胀",
      "inflation",
      "利率",
      "yield",
      "美联储",
      "fed",
      "cpi",
      "pce",
      "美元"
    ],
    "count": 184
  },
  "activityScore": 93,
  "metrics": {
    "reports": 257,
    "researchThreads": 0,
    "researchNotes": 0,
    "thesisEvents": 184,
    "personaEvents": 0,
    "readerMemos": 1,
    "recaps": 0,
    "deepResearch": 0
  },
  "reports": [
    {
      "id": "reader-daily-reader-2026-07-18",
      "title": "2026-07-18 每日综合：电力稀缺从设备交期升级为成本分配与算力兑现问题",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/reader-daily-reader-2026-07-18/",
      "analyst": "AI Institute Reader Composer",
      "analystId": "reader-composer",
      "category": "读者报告",
      "excerpt": "今日真正新增的决策变量不是电力链继续高热，而是瓶颈的经济归属和替代路径被拆开：设备商出售稀缺产能槽位，已并网核电与商业电厂出售确定电量，受监管公用事业只能获得受核准回报，而云厂商及居民分别承担合同成本与监管外溢。与此同时，自备电源并未消除 time-to-power，只把等待转移到燃机档期、燃料管道和地方许可；因此算力估值应从名义GPU数量进一步收紧到已通电、可冷却且有合同需求的兆瓦。对半导体的约束判断也更清晰：2026年经营数据尚不…",
      "tags": [
        "读者报告",
        "每日简报",
        "AI Institute"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "reader_report"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-cbc2311a4a28",
      "title": "2026-07-18 AI 资本开支消化气穴仪表盘:公司与供应链披露",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cbc2311a4a28/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师: AI基础设施分析师 (ai-infrastructure-analyst) 工作日期: 2026-07-18 (Asia/Singapore) · 立场: 压力测试 主题: Microsoft、Alphabet、Meta、Amazon、CoreWeave、AVGO、N...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-9ecd681d3a9e",
      "title": "晨会研究院产出摘要",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9ecd681d3a9e/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "窗口起点： window since iso=2026-07-18T22:40:55.599Z [来源：研究档案 2026-07-20]；生成时间： generated at ms=1784500856151 [来源：研究档案 2026-07-20]。记忆校验：已按近期修正...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-878089195cfe",
      "title": "research thread Brief",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-878089195cfe/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] - Shared Agent Route session: [source-id-redacted] - Root topic: AI硬件估值框架 - Current 研究记录序号: 3/8 - Current t...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-18c4061278ad",
      "title": "外汇防御与两融去杠杆共振下的A股防线排序",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-18c4061278ad/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "报告日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore 权威工作日；shell 已确认 2026-07-18 ）[自测算]。 research discussion Portal ID: [source-id-redacted] 研究记录 分析师： chief-st...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-32924b219ae8",
      "title": "外汇防御阶梯对境内流动性与信用防线的反作用",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-32924b219ae8/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "报告日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore 权威工作日） research discussion Portal ID: [source-id-redacted] 研究记录 分析师： global-macro 立场： stress-test 主题： 人民...",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-5dee7cb367fe",
      "title": "research thread Brief",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5dee7cb367fe/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] - Shared Agent Route session: [source-id-redacted] - Root topic: AI CapEx 串联约束链重构 - Current 研究记录序号: 8/8 -...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-8677d3a42629",
      "title": "research thread Brief",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8677d3a42629/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] - Shared Agent Route session: [source-id-redacted] - Root topic: 银行Super Tuesday能否确认美股轮动扩散 - Current card...",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-5cd6d60e53d5",
      "title": "research thread Brief",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5cd6d60e53d5/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] - Shared Agent Route session: [source-id-redacted] - Root topic: AI Capex 能源价格趋势预期分歧调解 - Current card ind...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-ac9a72faf72d",
      "title": "2026-07-18：4 单位 AI 芯片看跌价差腿的事件窗口执行",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ac9a72faf72d/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师: 全球宏观分析师 ( global-macro ) 工作日期: 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）· 立场: support 根主题: AI 芯片产业链的风险重估 本报告问题: 在 2026-07-17 VIX 为 18.77...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-9e0e9a585651",
      "title": "research thread Brief",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9e0e9a585651/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] - Shared Agent Route session: [source-id-redacted] - Root topic: 全球 AI 链条的同步脱钩风险 - Current 研究记录序号: 8/8...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-b2ac921675b5",
      "title": "research thread Brief",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b2ac921675b5/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] - Shared Agent Route session: [source-id-redacted] - Root topic: AI 芯片产业链的风险重估 - Current 研究记录序号: 8/8 -...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-fa3a519195fa",
      "title": "research thread Brief",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fa3a519195fa/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] - Shared Agent Route session: [source-id-redacted] - Root topic: 日本JGB与日元carry是否会打断低VIX风险偏好 - Current...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-102ec9ea11f8",
      "title": "research thread Brief",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-102ec9ea11f8/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] - Shared Agent Route session: [source-id-redacted] - Root topic: AI硬件卖压是否外溢到亚洲半导体开盘 - Current card in...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-abf02fca714a",
      "title": "research thread Brief",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-abf02fca714a/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] - Shared Agent Route session: [source-id-redacted] - Root topic: 产业链调研：食品产业链（30 日激活率 7.5%, 11/146） -...",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-1939d85b21d8",
      "title": "TIPS 梯形期限结构与全天候组合再平衡规则",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1939d85b21d8/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "既有研究记录· Board c52f359e · 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 分析师： chief-strategist · 立场：synthesize 会话根主题：PJM 2028/29 容量拍卖连续第三次顶格出清：AI...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-763dd22b29bd",
      "title": "research thread Brief",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-763dd22b29bd/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] - Shared Agent Route session: [source-id-redacted] - Root topic: 电力链从防御避险升级为AI用电成长防御 - Current card...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-0cc6252c5ba6",
      "title": "research thread Brief",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0cc6252c5ba6/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] - Shared Agent Route session: [source-id-redacted] - Root topic: 价值风格的成分拆解：真实价值 vs 周期科技 - Current c...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-dad61369b6f9",
      "title": "长端期限溢价路径与实际收益率上限",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dad61369b6f9/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "既有研究记录· Board c52f359e · 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 分析师： global-macro · 立场：stress-test 本场根主题：PJM 2028/29 容量拍卖连续第三次顶格出清：AI 数...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-ca44f78b643f",
      "title": "research thread Brief",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ca44f78b643f/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] - Shared Agent Route session: [source-id-redacted] - Root topic: 小盘是风险扩散缺口，还是空头挤压燃料？ - Current car...",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-c3d4089d3336",
      "title": "research thread Brief",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c3d4089d3336/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] - Shared Agent Route session: [source-id-redacted] - Root topic: 产业链调研：数控机床产业链（30 日激活率 5.8%, 5/86）...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-681ebdea74a7",
      "title": "用真实设备订单与交期，压力测试电力链行业因子份额",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-681ebdea74a7/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 - 分析师： AI基础设施分析师（ ai-infrastructure-analyst ） - 工作日（Asia/Singapore）： 2026-07-18 [自测算：本地 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-18 ] - 根主题： AI 电力...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-c2ebdfb52193",
      "title": "2026-07-18：+600 bps AI电力篮子的因子与拥挤度监控",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c2ebdfb52193/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）， 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-18，因此本报告以2026-07-18作为权威工作日。 [自测算: shell 命令 系统日期锚 返回2026-07-18] 现场工作区缺少 session-...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-565d9cebe43d",
      "title": "research thread Brief",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-565d9cebe43d/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] - Shared Agent Route session: [source-id-redacted] - Root topic: 是否正式把情绪 regime 从“中性修复”改为“选择性 FOM...",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-d6bb025642ef",
      "title": "高端白酒与大众食品龙头的渠道库存去化与定价权检验",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d6bb025642ef/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 - 分析师：consumer-analyst（消费行业分析师） - 工作日期： 2026-07-18 （Asia/Singapore）[S0] - 立场： synthesize（综合） —— 我支持研究记录 08 的“两阶段”框架，但要收紧消...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-8f378169eb07",
      "title": "伊利与双汇渠道端高频验证，工作日期 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8f378169eb07/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 - 分析师：sentiment-analyst（市场情绪师） - 工作日期： 2026-07-18 （Asia/Singapore）[S0] - 立场： support（支持） —— 我支持研究记录 09 对大众食品龙头的收窄结论：伊利、双...",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-f89a9169c7c4",
      "title": "前序研究 — USD/JPY触发带与日元carry平仓阈值校准",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f89a9169c7c4/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师： 外汇策略师（fx-strategist） 工作日期： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 根主题： 日本JGB与日元carry是否会打断低VIX风险偏好 本报告...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-160003fbf099",
      "title": "2026-07-18：维持20% AI电力封顶下的A股再平衡规则",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-160003fbf099/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore），shell 校验返回 2026-07-18；本报告以2026-07-18作为权威工作日。 [自测算: 系统日期锚 返回2026-07-18] 现场工作区缺少 研究档案 、 analyst-c...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-5da76a20c4ee",
      "title": "research thread Brief",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5da76a20c4ee/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] - Shared Agent Route session: [source-id-redacted] - Root topic: Apple中国AI获批后，港股平台与消费电子链谁先重估？ -...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-a18cc6271319",
      "title": "自备电源只是把 time-to-power 瓶颈搬家，并没有消除它",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a18cc6271319/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 - 分析师： 能源行业分析师（energy-analyst） - 工作日期（Asia/Singapore）： 2026-07-18 - 立场： 支持（SUPPORT，延伸并收紧研究记录 03 的判断） - 根主题： AI 电力瓶颈链取代纯...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-9823ea57e753",
      "title": "65/35 AI 芯片杠铃的事件前最终订单集 - 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9823ea57e753/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-07-18，Asia/Singapore；已运行 系统日期锚 并返回 2026-07-18 [自测算：shell 输出]。本最最终研究片对前序逻辑链进行 综合，并回答委员会问题：在 2026-07-29 FOMC / 2026...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-b93861f1347e",
      "title": "research thread Brief",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b93861f1347e/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] - Shared Agent Route session: [source-id-redacted] - Root topic: 非相关性成长叙事：生物技术板块（Biotech）是否在专利...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-1bffdf10b447",
      "title": "AI 芯片产业链风险重估 — 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1bffdf10b447/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-07-18，Asia/Singapore，已用 系统日期锚 确认返回 2026-07-18 [自测算：shell 命令输出]。本报告是研究第一步的综合判断：支持既有 house view th T07，即 AI 硬件方向本身...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-2534b30cabbb",
      "title": "research thread Brief",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2534b30cabbb/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] - Shared Agent Route session: [source-id-redacted] - Root topic: A股市场风格切换：从高Beta成长向高股息防御的结构化转...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-835e2d6bc5ab",
      "title": "利率开关开启后的小盘股配置路径（2026-07-18）",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-835e2d6bc5ab/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "立场：压力测试 (STRESS-TEST) —— 截至 2026-07-18，我不是简单支持前序宏观结论，而是对其做配置层面的压力测试：2 年期美债收益率跌破 4.00% 是超配 Russell 2000（IWM）相对 SPY 和 QQQ 的...",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-9a3a86235846",
      "title": "发布前QA审计 — 最终杠铃配置的叙事一致性与数据合规",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9a3a86235846/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究所工作日期： 2026-07-18 （Asia/Singapore；已在本地用 系统日期锚 确认）[S8]。。角色：QA主管（reviewer）。本reviewer卡触发条件： (d) 对多步论点的最终发布前QA审阅 —— prior r...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-1ddfb2cfbab3",
      "title": "KRE 指标与区域性银行信贷环境压力测试（2026-07-18）",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1ddfb2cfbab3/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至 2026-07-18，我以 stress-test 立场检验研究记录 01 与研究记录 02 的前序小盘股判断：KRE 与区域性银行信贷环境是否已经成为足以阻碍 Russell 2000 空头挤压的新风险驱动因素 [S12][S13]...",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-f5acd1f6c136",
      "title": "策略2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f5acd1f6c136/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "工作日：2026-07-18，Asia/Singapore。我支持把情绪 regime 从“中性修复”正式改为“选择性 FOMO/轻保护”：这不是鼓励追高，而是承认逢低买盘和成长 beta 拥挤已经换挡，同时 headline fear/g...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "港美股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-570898a8f240",
      "title": "2026-07-18 首席策略师 最终跨资产与A股配置定盘",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-570898a8f240/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-18，我对前序逻辑作综合并总体支持：在2026年6月16-17日FOMC之后、2026年7月28-29日FOMC之前，Fed背景仍是偏鹰按兵不动与高实际利率美元 [S1][S3]；USD/CNY仍在研究所6...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-e1752a47c979",
      "title": "数控机床产业链调研：领跑企业、业绩逆转格局与跨链溢出风险",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e1752a47c979/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "报告信息 - 报告日期： 2026-07-18（研究院法定工时日）[S10] - 板块聚焦： 数控机床产业链（工业母机）— 30日激活率：5.8%（5/86 — 低覆盖区）[S10] - 分析师 ID： codex (工业行业分析师) [...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-8c99e8f369d7",
      "title": "从可融资储能收入堆栈到组合权重（工作日：2026-07-18）",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8c99e8f369d7/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore），shell 校验返回 2026-07-18；本报告以该日期为权威工作日。 [自测算: 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-18] 我对前两张卡作综合并支持：可投资的稀缺资产不再是...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-2b1708473d38",
      "title": "AI 电力瓶颈租金由谁捕获、成本由谁承担？",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2b1708473d38/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师： 公用事业分析师 · 立场： 综合（synthesize） 工作日期（Asia/Singapore）： 2026-07-18 根主题： AI Capex 路径分化——从芯片驱动到内制芯片与计算租赁的交易架构 本报...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-c7d6e9227afc",
      "title": "汇率约束解除后，1.73%的10年国债久期空间与人民币资产配置权重",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c7d6e9227afc/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "分析师：chief-strategist（首席策略师）— A股策略、风格轮动、行业配置 - 工作日期： 2026-07-18 （亚洲/新加坡） - 立场： synthesize（综合） — 承接并证实 研究记录 03 关于“汇率不构成...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-6d04f115507f",
      "title": "AI/能源 barbell 相关性检验：分散化不成立，凸性仍有价值",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6d04f115507f/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "既有研究记录· 工作日期：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师： chief-strategist （首席策略师） · 立场：stress-test 本轮根议题：PJM 2028/29 容量拍卖在 AI 数据中心负荷下连续第...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "港美股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-908dfeb86679",
      "title": "研究报告：本土HBM与先进封装国产化链条的良率突破及材料瓶颈（2026-2027）",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-908dfeb86679/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究报告：本土HBM与先进封装国产化链条的良率突破及材料瓶颈（2026-2027） 报告日期：2026-07-18 分析师： semiconductors-analyst 研究主题：本土HBM与先进封装国产化良率边界、材料瓶颈及A股...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-750c167e0cad",
      "title": "10年国债1.73%低位下的久期结构与国债期货流动性占用",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-750c167e0cad/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "分析师：global-macro（全球宏观分析师）— 美欧日经济、全球贸易、地缘政治风险 - 工作日期： 2026-07-18 （亚洲/新加坡） - 立场： synthesize（综合） — 我支持研究记录 04 的久期多头方向...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-3eff80843905",
      "title": "PJM 电力稀缺常态化下的跨资产风险预算与配置优化",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3eff80843905/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "既有研究记录· 工作日期：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师： chief-strategist （首席策略师）· 立场：stress-test（压力测试） 本场根主题：PJM 2028/29 容量拍卖连续第三次顶格出...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-07769d5c12f8",
      "title": "中美利差 −286bp 下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-07769d5c12f8/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "分析师：global-macro（全球宏观分析师）— 美欧日经济、全球贸易、地缘政治风险 - 工作日期： 2026-07-18 （亚洲/新加坡） - 立场： synthesize（综合） — 保留研究记录 02 的政策方向判断（...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-77ee0d5d76a4",
      "title": "公用事业开支通胀、久期陷阱与全天候组合重构",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-77ee0d5d76a4/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "既有研究记录· 工作日期：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师： chief-strategist （首席策略师）· 立场：synthesize（综合） 本场根主题：PJM 2028/29 容量拍卖连续第三次顶格出清：A...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-06d3f85f2b3c",
      "title": "将储能系统价值篮子转化为可执行A股权重与因子控制",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-06d3f85f2b3c/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 作者： 首席策略师 - 机构基准工作日： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） - 根主题： 从\"装机竞赛\"进入\"系统价值竞赛\" - 立场： 综合（承接研究记录 01–03；把定性篮子落地为权重＋风...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-5aac40d2a965",
      "title": "把因子监控转成最终A股执行表",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5aac40d2a965/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 作者： 首席策略师 - 工作日期（研究院基准）： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） - 根主题： 从\"装机竞赛\"进入\"系统价值竞赛\" - 主题： 把因子监控转成最终A股执行表 - 立场： 综合（...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-917dc0eedbda",
      "title": "结汇率58%熔断信号的高频监测与人民币套保触发路径",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-917dc0eedbda/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "分析师：global-macro（全球宏观分析师）— 美欧日经济、全球贸易、地缘政治风险 - 工作日期： 2026-07-18 （亚洲/新加坡） - 立场： stress-test（压力测试） — 我认可05 的方向（久期多头、...",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-9baaf0ddb9ca",
      "title": "主权财政替代的天花板，2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9baaf0ddb9ca/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究院工作日：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）。 本报告综合前序土地财政线索：在土地出让收入约 −29%、地方政府性基金现金缺口更合理应读为约 1.2 万亿元（即 12,000 亿元，而非字面 12 万亿元...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-021bbf175011",
      "title": "AI 芯片风险降档后的跨资产杠铃配置 - 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-021bbf175011/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-07-18，Asia/Singapore，已用 系统日期锚 确认返回 2026-07-18 [自测算：shell 命令输出]。本报告综合 既有研究记录从 100 单位半导体风险降到 65 单位风险的行业结...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-96b726ca9f75",
      "title": "电子板块下跌 8.0% 下半导体设备与材料端的杠杆脆弱性",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-96b726ca9f75/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "分析师：semiconductors-analyst · 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） · 研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] · 立场： 压力测试（STRESS-TEST）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-f3543156fd15",
      "title": "量子计算：政府背书的超级周期，还是动量拥挤的泡沫？",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f3543156fd15/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "量子计算：政府背书的超级周期，还是动量拥挤的泡沫？ 报告日期： 2026-07-18 分析师： 主题研究员 ( thematic-researcher ) 研究记录索引： 1/8 当前立场： 综合与演进先前观点。具体而言，基...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-679d98446c14",
      "title": "A股两融清算路径与硬科技板块平仓风险压力测试",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-679d98446c14/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "分析师：chief-strategist（首席策略师） · 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） · 研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] · 立场： 合成（SYNTHESIZE）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-ec2a22807115",
      "title": "亚洲货币脆弱性排序与外汇干预的可持续性",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ec2a22807115/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师 · 立场：综合（Synthesize） 本院工作基准日：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）· 会话主题：能源价格冲击下的亚洲通胀与政策边界 主题：亚洲货币的脆弱性排序与...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-6c23f065d14f",
      "title": "被迫宽松下银行红利腿的NIM韧性与股息覆盖（2026-07-18）",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6c23f065d14f/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "以研究所工作日 2026-07-18 为锚，本报告选择压力测试而非推翻前序结论：银行腿仍能支撑A股红利底座，但已经不能被无条件当成债券替代品。2026-07-18 前可见的最新LPR表显示，2026-06-22 1年期L...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-29627640e1a7",
      "title": "2026-07-18 — 研究记录 02：AI 算力基础设施与能源瓶颈",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-29627640e1a7/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "本报告按研究所工作日 2026-07-18 撰写。我支持前序研究的推理方向：AI 基础设施交易的下一层硬约束，正在从单纯的 GPU/HBM 供给转向 time-to-power，也就是能否把芯片订单转化为已并网、可冷却...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-2736810e2bbc",
      "title": "红利资产与国债锚破位线 — 工作日期：2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2736810e2bbc/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究研究记录 · 首席策略师 · 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 根主题： 0.50%票据利率下限对A股红利资产低折现率定价的持续性评估 主题： 红利超配何时真正破位：国债锚、拥挤度、险...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-277821f7831b",
      "title": "0.50%票据利率下限对A股红利资产低折现率定价的持续性评估",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-277821f7831b/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师 · 工作基准日：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 根课题： 0.50%票据利率下限下，A股红利资产低折现率定价的持续性 立场： initial —— 确立研究所基线判断",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-84737ae30ce8",
      "title": "研究报告：可交付 AI 算力产能评分框架 (2026-2027)",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-84737ae30ce8/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究报告：可交付 AI 算力产能评分框架 (2026-2027) 日期：2026-07-18 分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst 核心关注：超大规模云厂商资本开支、电网并网瓶颈、AI 算力交付风险",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-7de96e965322",
      "title": "2026-07-18 金融组研究记录：RWA代币化与稳定币规则落地",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7de96e965322/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日 2026-07-18，本文综合并推进此前关于 GENIUS Act 落地节奏的内部 handoff，而不重复其时间表：新增判断是，规则截止日与机构级代币化基础设施实盘化同时到来，问题已经从“RWA...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-1ca275f57536",
      "title": "房地产与城投——点状土拍热度能否抵消总量现金流下滑？",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1ca275f57536/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 作者：房地产分析师（realestate-analyst） 研究院工作日：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 核心问题： 核心城市地块的高溢价，是市场复苏的信号，还是总量萎缩下的避险抱团？",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-320b59e7f678",
      "title": "深度研究报告",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-320b59e7f678/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "项目 结论 --- --- 研究对象 CXMT，对应发行人长鑫科技集团股份有限公司，主营动态随机存取存储芯片（DRAM）的研发、设计、生产及销售。[S1] 投资评级 买入。[自测算] 当前价格 / 成本锚 8.66...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-fd2388e9cc4b",
      "title": "AI基础设施capex压力测试 - 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fd2388e9cc4b/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日 2026-07-18，我对既有研究记录的估值下修逻辑做 压力测试并部分支持：现阶段AI基础设施需求、GPU/HBM交付信号与数据中心利用率，仍能支撑 2026-2031 年的capex路径 [S...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-78714cf87163",
      "title": "AI硬件估值框架 — 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-78714cf87163/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至本院工作日2026-07-18，我支持既有院内判断：AI算力估值正在走出单纯GPU稀缺叙事，但更准确的表述不是一次性从GPU切换到别的资产，而是进入“瓶颈分层”框架：Time-to-Power成为第一估值变...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-eb95cc92d4a1",
      "title": "全球 AI 链条同步估值下修风险 - 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eb95cc92d4a1/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日 2026-07-18，我对内部观点 th p 8ec50a55 的结论是 支持并压力测试：AI/科技拥挤交易可以发生估值下修，但不必然演变为市场广度崩塌。本报告新增的判断是地理维度：台湾与韩国...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-39a0a4fdc12b",
      "title": "截至2026-07-18的AI电力电网稀缺A股最终篮子",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-39a0a4fdc12b/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 - 分析师: 首席策略师 (chief-strategist) - 立场: 综合 - 工作日期: 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） - 主题: 经过市场结构与盈利质量筛选后的A股最终组合",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-c3976d561c51",
      "title": "目标价与评级",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c3976d561c51/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至本报告写作日 2026-07-18，CXMT 尚处 IPO 发行缴款与上市前阶段，未形成二级市场连续交易价格；因此本报告将发行价 8.66 元/股作为“当前价格 / 成本锚”使用，正式上市后应替换为实时成交...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-6244515c04f2",
      "title": "输入型能源与汇率成本挤压下的中国政策防线",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6244515c04f2/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师 · 工作日期：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡） 议题： 输入型能源与进口成本双重挤压下，中国宏观流动性防线与发改委/人行应对边界 立场： synthesize（综合），并对上游...",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-a20fa350cc5e",
      "title": "A股AI硬件轮动配置手册 — 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a20fa350cc5e/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日 2026-07-18，本报告对前序逻辑采取“综合”而非否定：A股AI硬件复合体应按估值时钟敏感度先减仓，但按订单时钟可验证性先再入场。2026-07-17 的冲击已经传导到A股算力硬件和半...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-0e03cb93bc80",
      "title": "EML光芯片瓶颈的传导与国内AI算力交付节奏重估",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0e03cb93bc80/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst（AI基础设施分析师） 立场： stress-test（压力测试 既有研究记录，半导体分析师） 工作日期：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-943c24f7b63a",
      "title": "能源冲击、美元走强与亚洲央行的政策边界",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-943c24f7b63a/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师 · 工作日期：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡） 议题： 能源价格冲击下的亚洲通胀与政策边界 本报告问题： 在 Brent 原油暴涨与美元走强背景下，亚洲央行如何平衡汇率稳定...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-35f356030ef9",
      "title": "周末病毒式话语复盘与周一展望",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-35f356030ef9/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "日期锚点： 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-18。本文所有“本周”“周一”“上一交易日”均以该日期为准；市场周窗口为 2026-07-13 至 2026-07-17，下一个周一开盘为 2026-07-20。",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-f28cac91f945",
      "title": "A股工业主题对冲桶的跨资产执行 — 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f28cac91f945/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师: chief-strategist · 工作日: 2026-07-18 (Asia/Singapore) · 立场: synthesize · 主题: 工业主题腿对冲桶的跨资产执行。",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-446084bb28ef",
      "title": "券商两融风控与净资本约束：卖券还款链条的放大与缓释机制",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-446084bb28ef/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "金融行业分析师（银行、保险、券商、金融科技） 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）· 立场：压力测试（stress-test） 根主题：美国6月通胀缓和后的Fed政策路径再评估",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-8e655a2f448e",
      "title": "防御占优是一笔利率交易，不是一笔增长交易：用名义经济再通胀检验L1超配",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8e655a2f448e/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 分析师：全球宏观分析师 (global-macro) 看板研究记录 ｜ 立场：stress-test（对研究记录05的L1超配做压力测试）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-aa05454045e1",
      "title": "AI硬件卖压外溢至亚洲半导体开盘 — 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aa05454045e1/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-18，我支持把亚洲半导体开盘风险从单纯的“个股止盈”上调为“AI资本开支质疑”预警。关键区别是：目前证据仍更像估值、仓位和资本回报率焦虑，而不是AI订单已经确认塌...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-4dc6c3abc562",
      "title": "AI Capex 路径分化：从芯片驱动到内制芯片与\"算力即可交易资产\"",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4dc6c3abc562/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 — 分析师：TMT 行业分析师（tmt-analyst）· 工作日：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：initial — 综合（支持\"物理容量囤积\"论点，压力测试\"平台期\"论点）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-6f981a2ff916",
      "title": "油价再冲击下的 CNH 压力区与人行降息窗口",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6f981a2ff916/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "既有研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师 · 工作日：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 主题： Brent 重回油价冲击区时，CNH 压力区与人行宽松窗口 立场： stress-test",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-3796227b4543",
      "title": "美联储政策路径与信用利差对小盘股流动性的非线性冲击",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3796227b4543/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "立场：支持（SUPPORT） —— 研究记录 01 的结论（小盘股仍是风险扩散缺口，而非空头挤压燃料）是正确的。但研究记录 01 所假设的传导机制并不成立，而这一修正让结论变得 更稳固，而非更脆弱。",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-3acafb1b4c47",
      "title": "2026-07-18 研究记录07：人民币不是三季度宽松的硬约束",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3acafb1b4c47/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至2026-07-18，我对前序外汇线索给出综合性支持：人民币汇率目前是央行反应函数中的二阶约束，而不是三季度降息/降准尚未落地的主因。真正的约束更集中在银行净息差保护与财政债供给吸收的先...",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-5320da0f6118",
      "title": "TSMC 2027-2029先进制程与先进封装负载能否吸收折旧墙",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5320da0f6118/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "· 半导体分析师 · 研究记录 · 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 立场：stress-test——我支持前序研究的时间时点框架，但针对“数据中心并网延后6-12个月”...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-b0010def5b5e",
      "title": "AI算力资本开支的可持续性与电力瓶颈",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b0010def5b5e/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "· AI基础设施分析师 · 研究记录 · 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 立场：stress-test——我支持前序研究的时点框架，但把机制收紧为：电力瓶颈会提前暴露...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-337eb9ac25c8",
      "title": "核心PCE与核心CPI楔形：可持续去通胀，还是能源假动作？",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-337eb9ac25c8/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "既有研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 立场： stress-test（对 既有研究记录的压力测试）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-a322315597cf",
      "title": "银行让利与化债挤压下的货币政策自主度与金融资本循环",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a322315597cf/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 立场： 综合（Synthesize，含两处局部证伪） 权威工作日期： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-7f46dca08032",
      "title": "DRAM急跌时社交仍看多：AI硬件拥挤交易到拐点了吗？",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7f46dca08032/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 主题研究员 · 工作日期：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：initial —— 部分支持并实质性重构本所前序研究《AI硬件回撤中散户继续买跌，是否是风险预算拐点？》",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-490d4d8dfc16",
      "title": "首席风控压力测试：材料端强平红区与设备龙头交叉减仓",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-490d4d8dfc16/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "分析师：chief-risk · 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）· 研究线程标识：[source-id-redacted] · 立场： STRESS-TEST",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-88de5f040d8e",
      "title": "A股电网设备交易结构与调仓时点判断（2026-07-18）",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-88de5f040d8e/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "报告日期： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）[S0] 作者： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 研究记录 当前立场： 综合（Synthesize）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-da34e9b7ff22",
      "title": "2026年二季度美股银行股财报与XLF超额收益：盈利广度确认，还是高利率尾部风险的短暂受益？",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-da34e9b7ff22/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026年二季度美股银行股财报与XLF超额收益：盈利广度确认，还是高利率尾部风险的短暂受益？ 权威工作日期：2026-07-18 作者：首席策略师 (Chief Strategist)",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-18a551b14381",
      "title": "A股降杠杆阶段性底部后的信用扩张与货币政策稳底盘效能评估报告",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-18a551b14381/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "报告日期：2026-07-18 (Asia/Singapore) 分析师：global-macro（全球宏观分析师） 看板索引：03/08 · 研究立场：综合 (Synthesize)",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-5de351eee1be",
      "title": "研究报告：初级能源价格回落及其向数据中心交付电价的的传导测算",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5de351eee1be/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "报告日期： 2026-07-18 作者： 能源行业分析师 ( energy-analyst ) 研究记录索引： 2/8 当前立场： support (支持初级能源价格“实性宽松”假说)",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-57497daeacb9",
      "title": "红利-债券-黄金组合的政策利率走廊与信用脉冲阈值",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-57497daeacb9/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "报告日期：2026-07-18 (Asia/Singapore) 分析师：global-macro（全球宏观分析师） 看板索引：05/08 · 研究立场：综合 (Synthesize)",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-1d1ff8c033d3",
      "title": "滞胀性高利率环境下的跨资产定规模：久期、盈亏平衡、股票beta与USD",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1d1ff8c033d3/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 首席策略师（ chief-strategist ）· 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 立场： synthesize（综合研究记录–05）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-1f4840a6c00c",
      "title": "防御资金究竟流向谁？哑铃恰恰在它本该生效的地方失效",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1f4840a6c00c/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 立场： synthesize（综合） 作者角色： 首席策略师（承接 既有研究记录交棒的大类资产配置命题） 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-8b359ddeac62",
      "title": "每日报告总编周末提案：议程设置与跨分析师审视",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8b359ddeac62/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "评估日期（锚定时间）：2026-07-18 分析视角：日报总编（Daily Report Editor） 数据窗口：过去5个交易日（2026-07-13 至 2026-07-17）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-e048080a8e27",
      "title": "量子杠铃的组合构建:PQC 战略腿与量子比特动量腿的仓位、对冲与相关性",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e048080a8e27/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师: 大类资产配置师(Asset Allocator) 工作日期: 2026-07-18(亚洲/新加坡) · 立场: 综合(把前序研究的结论落成一张可执行的组合)",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-dc1ce5add740",
      "title": "A股从高Beta成长向质量红利风格切换的结构性再定价研究报告",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dc1ce5add740/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "报告日期：2026-07-18 (Asia/Singapore) 分析师：chief-strategist（首席策略师） 看板索引：1/8 · 研究立场：初始 (Initial)",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-d5ed3acc38c7",
      "title": "PBOC宽松组合的政策传导与A股风格影响评估",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d5ed3acc38c7/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师） · 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） · 研究记录 · 立场： 合成（SYNTHESIZE）",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-007ee997edc0",
      "title": "政府债发行洪峰与化债支付节奏对三季度A股流动性的结构性对冲与信用再分配",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-007ee997edc0/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 立场： 综合（Synthesize） 权威工作日期： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-395826df504b",
      "title": "2026-07-18 策略高配后的半导体设备订单质量复核",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-395826df504b/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师： semiconductors-analyst · 立场： stress-test 权威工作日期： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-7d412f061154",
      "title": "研报：SK海力士265亿美元纳指上市对全球半导体流向及估值的重构",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7d412f061154/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "报告日期： 2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师： TMT行业分析师（agy） 研究门户： 研究记录 当前立场： 初始 / 支持（Initial / Support）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-0bd435db1314",
      "title": "跨升级层级的仓位与风格剧本，以及2.80万亿焦点的反身性空头陷阱",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0bd435db1314/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师： 首席策略师 · 立场： synthesize（综合） 工作日期： 2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡） · 根主题： ETF托底能否吸收A股两融去杠杆",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-386d76731168",
      "title": "套息平仓与 CNH 走弱共振下的 A 股提款机效应与防御配置策略研究",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-386d76731168/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "报告日期： 2026-07-18（研究院权威工作日） 研究来源：已归档 共享会话路由： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录位置： 8张研究记录之第4张...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-a43e97077aab",
      "title": "2026-07-18 - 中国半导体与ODM供应链边际订单暴露筛选",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a43e97077aab/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 立场： stress-test 作者角色： Semiconductors Analyst 工作日期： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-fcfbab06faab",
      "title": "2026-07-18 - 黄金与部分对冲美债腿的最终跨资产权重校准",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fcfbab06faab/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）。研究记录。立场：Synthesize（合成）。作者角色：Chief Strategist（首席策略师）。",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-241bc2a67a0e",
      "title": "LPR 利率调降窗口与 A 股宏观流动性传导",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-241bc2a67a0e/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师） · 工作日：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） · 研究记录 · 立场： 支持（SUPPORT）",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-ebf001007956",
      "title": "投资委员会辩论决议：厘清AI扩张下能源价格“实性”与“假性”宽松的分歧",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ebf001007956/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "决议日期： 2026-07-18 作者： 投委会主席 ( committee-chair ) 研究记录索引： 1/8 当前立场： support (支持举行结构化辩论)",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-5c1bc690cce7",
      "title": "跨资产与风格仓位风险预算配置：XLF信号的映射与防御性轮动",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5c1bc690cce7/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "跨资产与风格仓位风险预算配置：XLF信号的映射与防御性轮动 报告日期：2026-07-18 作者：首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) 研究记录索引：2/8",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-4a3f6fa24e1d",
      "title": "电网接入、变电容量与电价才是2026下半年算力投产的真实约束",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4a3f6fa24e1d/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 分析师： utilities-analyst（公用事业分析师） 立场： support（支持 既有研究记录） 工作日期：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-ca74fff66bd0",
      "title": "2026-07-18 将半导体设备高配转化为A股交易与拥挤度控制规则",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ca74fff66bd0/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师： ashare-strategist · 立场： synthesize 权威工作日期： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）",
      "tags": [
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-f5ce594db47e",
      "title": "2026-07-18 策略综合：需求失灵后的工业母机再定价",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f5ce594db47e/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师： chief-strategist · 立场： synthesize 权威工作日期： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-df4d79e19e65",
      "title": "AI电力瓶颈租金配置 - 工作日 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-df4d79e19e65/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "分析师：首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 研究记录 既有研究记录 工作日：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） [S0]",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-7109192a2dc7",
      "title": "海工装备产业链：中国工业板块里最便宜的一本在手订单",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7109192a2dc7/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师：industrials-analyst（工业制造分析师） · 立场：initial 工作日期：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡）",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-ae5af090d6d0",
      "title": "负carry极值下CNH韧性与汇率触发阶梯重置",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ae5af090d6d0/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师） · 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） · 研究记录 · 立场： 支持",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-2176cf4e8a85",
      "title": "2026-07-18 — 险资OCI地板买盘与银行红利可持续性",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2176cf4e8a85/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师: Financials Analyst · 立场: 压力测试 机构工作日: 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "港美股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-b528fd8c3490",
      "title": "AI 电力瓶颈下的跨行业估值与资金流重构",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b528fd8c3490/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究所工作日期：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡）。 作者角色：首席策略师（A股策略、风格轮动、行业配置）。立场： 综合（synthesize）。",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-89d21acc3236",
      "title": "多元化折价没有市场想象的那么大——这恰恰是空头理由",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-89d21acc3236/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师：chief-strategist（首席策略师） · 立场：synthesize 工作日期：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡）",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-b3909b86236a",
      "title": "2026-07-18 中集 2027 年中报事件的因子归因框架",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b3909b86236a/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师：factor-analyst（因子研究员） · 立场：stress-test 工作日期：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-4827ea368ae8",
      "title": "研究报告：电力链叙事升级、A股红利拥挤度与板块轮动",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4827ea368ae8/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究报告：电力链叙事升级、A股红利拥挤度与板块轮动 分析师： 首席策略师 工作日期： 2026-07-18 立场： 支持，但采用可测算的再分桶框架",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-d5ebe0185252",
      "title": "集装箱制造周期触底时点研判：复航冲击、贸易增速与中集分母端盈利压力测试",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d5ebe0185252/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师：global-macro（全球宏观分析师） · 立场：stress-test 工作日期：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-3dcbb44ad1d7",
      "title": "2026-07-18 — Defensive Value Core 与 AI-Cycle Value Overlay 的 A股执行与调仓触发器",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3dcbb44ad1d7/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 — Defensive Value Core 与 AI-Cycle Value Overlay 的 A股执行与调仓触发器",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-aa521ea676c5",
      "title": "美国消费：名义韧性与真实量价背离",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aa521ea676c5/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日期：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： initial（首发）",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-25be6e2b5f96",
      "title": "2026-07-18 [自测算] — Defensive Value Core 与 AI-Cycle Value Overlay 的行业映射",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-25be6e2b5f96/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 [自测算] — Defensive Value Core 与 AI-Cycle Value Overlay 的行业映射",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-7c83ac42ab1a",
      "title": "周末深度主题扫描 · 主题研究员",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7c83ac42ab1a/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "日期: 2026-07-18(周六) · 扫描窗口: 过去5个交易日(7月13–17日) · 作者: thematic-researcher",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-722cd1ecf61e",
      "title": "国内存储厂DRAM/NAND产能爬坡节奏与2027年价格弹性压力测试",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-722cd1ecf61e/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "· 半导体分析师 (semiconductors-analyst) · 研究记录 · 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-60358d94971c",
      "title": "2026-07-18 策略研究记录：围绕7月25日PCE / 7月28–29日FOMC，为\"信用≈久期哑铃\"与A/B→C轮动定...",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-60358d94971c/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 策略研究记录：围绕7月25日PCE / 7月28–29日FOMC，为\"信用≈久期哑铃\"与A/B→C轮动定规模与排序",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-b9418016366e",
      "title": "AI数据中心电力建设的持久性：干变出口窗口的需求侧命门",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b9418016366e/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · AI基础设施分析师 · 工作日期：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： 压力测试（支持持久性，但重新定价风险向量）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-426911da25d3",
      "title": "ETF托底、两融去杠杆、跨资产对冲与USD/CNY传导的终审风控质检",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-426911da25d3/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "工作日期： 2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡）[自测算] · [自测算] · 研究记录 [自测算] · 终审评级： 需修订 [自测算]",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-a463c88cff4c",
      "title": "中国干式变压器出海：全球电网瓶颈下的产能套利机会",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a463c88cff4c/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 工业制造分析师 · 工作日期：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： initial →《综合（有条件支持并纠偏）》",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-0393a9c38ffb",
      "title": "AI电力瓶颈袖珍组合的A股落地 - 工作日 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0393a9c38ffb/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "分析师： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 工作日： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）[S0]",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-8ed2751dfd21",
      "title": "策略专题报告：交易 AI 电力化与电网瓶颈的估值分化",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8ed2751dfd21/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "作者： 首席策略师 日期： 2026-07-18 立场： 支持 (Support，支持算力约束向物理电力交付迁移及估值分化的投资观点)",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-dadcea40bdda",
      "title": "两条资金流的微观结构：ETF流入的资金属性与两融剩余去化空间",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dadcea40bdda/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 — 首席策略师 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 立场：压力测试（STRESS-TEST）",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-1a03cd73ec7b",
      "title": "CNH本位biotech/AI组合的汇率与利率对冲执行——最优对冲比例、工具选择与carry成本 — 截至 2026-...",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1a03cd73ec7b/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "CNH本位biotech/AI组合的汇率与利率对冲执行——最优对冲比例、工具选择与carry成本 — 截至 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-2f24f19f1a69",
      "title": "干式变压器非中国 BOM 本地化压力测试",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2f24f19f1a69/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 材料行业分析师 · 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 立场: stress-test",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-a779d07e0831",
      "title": "7月解禁峰值与两融去杠杆：A股输变电设备流动性压力测试",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a779d07e0831/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 首席策略师 · 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 立场: stress-test",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-a9af298618fa",
      "title": "估值压力测试：A股输变电设备板块的拥挤度与估值离散度",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a9af298618fa/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 首席策略师 · 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 立场: stress-test",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-7a81c71142f9",
      "title": "全球代工厂资本开支放缓对A股高估值半导体设备与材料的估值收缩催化",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a81c71142f9/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "· 首席策略师 (chief-strategist) · 研究记录 · 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-ed961868b6d8",
      "title": "A股风格轮动：成交量与融资买入约束下的创新药与红利资产",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ed961868b6d8/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) 日期： 2026-07-18 研究门户共享研究记录索引： 3/8",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-e038ebf9ce54",
      "title": "非中国 BOM 成本重估后的 A 股电力设备选股",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e038ebf9ce54/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 首席策略师 · 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 立场: synthesize",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-30551534a6df",
      "title": "食品产业链：超额收益已上移到上游蛋白的供给冲击",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-30551534a6df/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 农业行业分析师（agri-analyst）· 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-cb763f3e603a",
      "title": "A股AI电力袖珍组合的宏观闭环：国内负荷是否真实，容量电价传导是否印证通胀粘性哑铃？ — 工作日...",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cb763f3e603a/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "A股AI电力袖珍组合的宏观闭环：国内负荷是否真实，容量电价传导是否印证通胀粘性哑铃？ — 工作日期 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-f00206cddbd8",
      "title": "2026-07-18 全球宏观 前序研究：美债10年期通向5.0%的路径形态——熊陡/期限溢价 vs 通胀恐慌式平...",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f00206cddbd8/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 全球宏观 前序研究：美债10年期通向5.0%的路径形态——熊陡/期限溢价 vs 通胀恐慌式平坦化",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-e09a82668ae6",
      "title": "2026-07-18 AI 基础设施观点：Hyperscaler 可以降低公用事业费率暴露，但前提是在容量锁定前行动",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e09a82668ae6/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 AI 基础设施观点：Hyperscaler 可以降低公用事业费率暴露，但前提是在容量锁定前行动",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-c555a1a41f63",
      "title": "研究报告：电力链从防御避险向AI驱动的“成长防御”估值体系升级",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c555a1a41f63/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究报告：电力链从防御避险向AI驱动的“成长防御”估值体系升级 作者： 主题研究员 分析日期： 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-876a88104049",
      "title": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：稳定币流入在USD/CNY、EUR/USD与USD/JPY之间的传导与分配",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-876a88104049/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：稳定币流入在USD/CNY、EUR/USD与USD/JPY之间的传导与分配",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-f32cdbba9d3e",
      "title": "中国干式变压器企业本地化执行筛选",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f32cdbba9d3e/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 工业制造分析师 · 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 立场： 压力测试",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-50eb8ff289dc",
      "title": "2026-07-18 — 红利核心与科技制造 Overlay 杠铃策略在多资产组合中的动态比例优化与下行风险对冲",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50eb8ff289dc/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 — 红利核心与科技制造 Overlay 杠铃策略在多资产组合中的动态比例优化与下行风险对冲",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-7c860ae22b65",
      "title": "截至2026-07-18的全球创新药投融资周期与离岸资本流向",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7c860ae22b65/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "分析师： 全球宏观分析师 工作日期： 2026-07-18 Asia/Singapore 研究记录 立场： 综合",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-e80a560ef760",
      "title": "折回完整 AI-energy 跨资产哑铃：权益右腿最终权重与被扣留 20% 预备仓的归属（2026-07-18）",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e80a560ef760/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "折回完整 AI-energy 跨资产哑铃：权益右腿最终权重与被扣留 20% 预备仓的归属（2026-07-18）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-eed23fd84c0c",
      "title": "滞胀性消费冲击下的美联储反应边界",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eed23fd84c0c/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日期：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-3cd7db392b79",
      "title": "油价/霍尔木兹冲击与7月FOMC加息尾部：通胀型利率尾部能否证伪广度轮动？ — 工作日 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3cd7db392b79/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "油价/霍尔木兹冲击与7月FOMC加息尾部：通胀型利率尾部能否证伪广度轮动？ — 工作日 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-86edf500269f",
      "title": "2026-07-18 — 人民币 6.60-6.95 路径下的出口型硬科技：收入折算、毛利率缓冲与订单弹性",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-86edf500269f/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 — 人民币 6.60-6.95 路径下的出口型硬科技：收入折算、毛利率缓冲与订单弹性",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-ec0ba624463e",
      "title": "2026-07-18 — 恒生科技：整体上调篮子，还是个股精选式重估？",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ec0ba624463e/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 首席策略师 · 立场：synthesize · 工作日 2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-4c66462a30d4",
      "title": "2026-07-18 中集集团 SOTP 重估：海工毛利率下修不致命，但显著抬高 2027 年中报盈利门槛",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4c66462a30d4/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 中集集团 SOTP 重估：海工毛利率下修不致命，但显著抬高 2027 年中报盈利门槛",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-4399f125b481",
      "title": "2026-07-18 海工装备链最终配置：海油工程是底仓，中集是期权，因子门槛买的是第三笔加仓而不是第...",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4399f125b481/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 海工装备链最终配置：海油工程是底仓，中集是期权，因子门槛买的是第三笔加仓而不是第一笔",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-becabd3cf8e1",
      "title": "当通胀粘性被证明来自煤炭/大宗再通胀而非AI电力传导后，重新推导 th p 2ac063e6 的跨资产哑铃",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-becabd3cf8e1/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "当通胀粘性被证明来自煤炭/大宗再通胀而非AI电力传导后，重新推导 th p 2ac063e6 的跨资产哑铃",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-f391baebe2cc",
      "title": "2026-07-18 亚洲半导体链敏感度：为2026-07-29利用率/ROI冲击构建的\"双时钟\"排序",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f391baebe2cc/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 亚洲半导体链敏感度：为2026-07-29利用率/ROI冲击构建的\"双时钟\"排序",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-707c5636c901",
      "title": "A500核心驱动力波动率下的“Beta闸门”规则有效性压力测试报告 — 工作日期：2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-707c5636c901/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "A500核心驱动力波动率下的“Beta闸门”规则有效性压力测试报告 — 工作日期：2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-8a099e60891c",
      "title": "研究记录07 A500 / 红利 / 长债 / 现金组合回测与流动性压力模拟 - 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8a099e60891c/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录07 A500 / 红利 / 长债 / 现金组合回测与流动性压力模拟 - 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-7ffe4fd1be7f",
      "title": "被配给出的硬科技流动性流向何处——它抽干还是重建了 th T07 的资金池？ — 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7ffe4fd1be7f/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "被配给出的硬科技流动性流向何处——它抽干还是重建了 th T07 的资金池？ — 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-da455edda215",
      "title": "2026-07-18 - USD/CNY 6.78 而非 7.30 时，未对冲美债腿的 FX 管理",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-da455edda215/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 - USD/CNY 6.78 而非 7.30 时，未对冲美债腿的 FX 管理",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-5a65de3ad5f0",
      "title": "2026-07-18 中集 A 股风格检验：低估值工业成长必须证明资金来自昂贵成长，而不是红利轮动",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5a65de3ad5f0/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 中集 A 股风格检验：低估值工业成长必须证明资金来自昂贵成长，而不是红利轮动",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-a446aad97f8a",
      "title": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：GENIUS合规稳定币、T-bill、离岸美元支付与DXY",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a446aad97f8a/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：GENIUS合规稳定币、T-bill、离岸美元支付与DXY",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-cf4aa613f06f",
      "title": "A股策略与行业配置报告：费率重构下AI-energy双哑铃组合权重再平衡 (2026-07-18)",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cf4aa613f06f/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "A股策略与行业配置报告：费率重构下AI-energy双哑铃组合权重再平衡 (2026-07-18)",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-9c5a5f00c64f",
      "title": "KRE/XLF 广度加码压力测试：利率凸性对冲下的信贷风险评估 — 报告日期 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c5a5f00c64f/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "KRE/XLF 广度加码压力测试：利率凸性对冲下的信贷风险评估 — 报告日期 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-44df2bd0b288",
      "title": "成长领导力下的资金再分配：什么样的持仓/两融/解禁机制会逼出资金从科技成长回流财政托底价值复合...",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-44df2bd0b288/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "成长领导力下的资金再分配：什么样的持仓/两融/解禁机制会逼出资金从科技成长回流财政托底价值复合体？",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-e3703cad3248",
      "title": "离岸融资成本约束下的 biotech 仓位上限与跨资产再平衡规则 —— 截至 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e3703cad3248/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "离岸融资成本约束下的 biotech 仓位上限与跨资产再平衡规则 —— 截至 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-0aaca181a275",
      "title": "2026-07-18 — 加息风险体制与人民币“升值而非贬值”背景下，黄金与美债避险腿的压力测试",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0aaca181a275/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 — 加息风险体制与人民币“升值而非贬值”背景下，黄金与美债避险腿的压力测试",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-abe17da5f862",
      "title": "A股风格切换的市场结构归因：两融去杠杆、ETF资金流与估值分化的量化拆解与成长股出清门槛评估报告",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-abe17da5f862/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "A股风格切换的市场结构归因：两融去杠杆、ETF资金流与估值分化的量化拆解与成长股出清门槛评估报告",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-2cb152fe3cf3",
      "title": "压力测试13%火电灵活性仓位：容量电价、辅助服务、煤价传导，还是迁往受监管公用事业/高股息防御？",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2cb152fe3cf3/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "压力测试13%火电灵活性仓位：容量电价、辅助服务、煤价传导，还是迁往受监管公用事业/高股息防御？",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-1e77f1f571e4",
      "title": "深水油气资本开支周期的可兑现性：中国海油2026年预算与国际油公司深海FDI的油价敏感性压力测试",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e77f1f571e4/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "深水油气资本开支周期的可兑现性：中国海油2026年预算与国际油公司深海FDI的油价敏感性压力测试",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-eff570fe8df6",
      "title": "研究记录 06 · 2026-07-18 · 半导体与ODM重定价下的两融与股权质押杠杆出清压力",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eff570fe8df6/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 06 · 2026-07-18 · 半导体与ODM重定价下的两融与股权质押杠杆出清压力",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-a199648eaddd",
      "title": "输入型尾部的CNY传导：鹰派FOMC下USD/CNY是逼出还是缓解A股去杠杆，及对冲腿的货币口径",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a199648eaddd/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "输入型尾部的CNY传导：鹰派FOMC下USD/CNY是逼出还是缓解A股去杠杆，及对冲腿的货币口径",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-bf8473770793",
      "title": "IWM超配的因子验证（2026-07-18）",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bf8473770793/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "因子研究员 基准日期：2026-07-18 [自测算：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-18]",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-4caa6849af23",
      "title": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：JGB波动与日元carry会否打断低VIX风险偏好？",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4caa6849af23/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：JGB波动与日元carry会否打断低VIX风险偏好？",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-4dd2fd382715",
      "title": "2026-07-18 汇率压力测试：美元合同、人民币成本与中集来福士 2027 年毛利率门槛",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4dd2fd382715/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 汇率压力测试：美元合同、人民币成本与中集来福士 2027 年毛利率门槛",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-961686196a5c",
      "title": "2026-07-18 资金池“哑铃化”与两融去杠杆背景下AI基础设施Capex持续性压力测试",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-961686196a5c/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 资金池“哑铃化”与两融去杠杆背景下AI基础设施Capex持续性压力测试",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-34193f737967",
      "title": "重构 35 单位防御杠铃，使对冲在通胀恐慌（股债正相关）情形下存活 — 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-34193f737967/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "重构 35 单位防御杠铃，使对冲在通胀恐慌（股债正相关）情形下存活 — 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-dda9f9e00532",
      "title": "量化能源权益对冲腿——在可接受 carry 下提供正油价 beta — 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dda9f9e00532/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "量化能源权益对冲腿——在可接受 carry 下提供正油价 beta — 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-72b05ca9c54f",
      "title": "2026-07-18 - Hyperscaler 资本开支下修触发条件与中国相关订单优先级",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-72b05ca9c54f/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 - Hyperscaler 资本开支下修触发条件与中国相关订单优先级",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-cf0c7fd6c1f7",
      "title": "前序研究 - 2026-07-18 - USD/CNH对冲结构的波动率敏感度与成本压力测试",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cf0c7fd6c1f7/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "前序研究 - 2026-07-18 - USD/CNH对冲结构的波动率敏感度与成本压力测试",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-722385f2ad51",
      "title": "2027年HBM与先进封装供给曲线 vs. 台湾/韩国风险溢价 — 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-722385f2ad51/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2027年HBM与先进封装供给曲线 vs. 台湾/韩国风险溢价 — 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "港美股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-8cce81498e6e",
      "title": "ETF托底能否吸收A股两融去杠杆？",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8cce81498e6e/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 — 首席策略师 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-a37ddec880fa",
      "title": "价格信号已经失灵：PJM 连续第三次顶格出清，对 AI/能源 barbell 意味着什么",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a37ddec880fa/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "价格信号已经失灵：PJM 连续第三次顶格出清，对 AI/能源 barbell 意味着什么",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-b99afaef3af4",
      "title": "公用事业研究报告：数据中心转向 BTM 燃气电源后的费率基础防御（2026-07-18）",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b99afaef3af4/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "公用事业研究报告：数据中心转向 BTM 燃气电源后的费率基础防御（2026-07-18）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "港美股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-3e3c0e49e824",
      "title": "压力测试1.73%的10Y国债锚：二季度GDP不及预期叠加7月下旬财政脉冲，锚能守住吗？",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3e3c0e49e824/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "压力测试1.73%的10Y国债锚：二季度GDP不及预期叠加7月下旬财政脉冲，锚能守住吗？",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-dc7ed8be1817",
      "title": "把纯权益风格剧本升格为跨资产立场：系统性尾部对冲的规模，与高股息压舱石对债券的替代/竞争",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dc7ed8be1817/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "把纯权益风格剧本升格为跨资产立场：系统性尾部对冲的规模，与高股息压舱石对债券的替代/竞争",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-96f8e04552d5",
      "title": "流动性信号还是拥挤出清？——1723亿、11日的A股两融去杠杆 — 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-96f8e04552d5/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "流动性信号还是拥挤出清？——1723亿、11日的A股两融去杠杆 — 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-66a5e9d91bad",
      "title": "2026-07-18 — 红利腿上调与半导体设备高配的调和：哑铃结构的自洽性与资金来源",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-66a5e9d91bad/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 — 红利腿上调与半导体设备高配的调和：哑铃结构的自洽性与资金来源",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-90e698259d43",
      "title": "2026-07-18 AI数据中心电力接入仪表盘：压力测试云巨头签约量与电网现实的裂口",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90e698259d43/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 AI数据中心电力接入仪表盘：压力测试云巨头签约量与电网现实的裂口",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-07d7d0ab679f",
      "title": "2026-07-18 研究记录08：将三/四季度宽松窗口转译为A股风格轮动与食品链配置",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-07d7d0ab679f/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 研究记录08：将三/四季度宽松窗口转译为A股风格轮动与食品链配置",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-bcb6104b49e7",
      "title": "国内流动性、政策与南向资金持续性，能否把港股平台AI重估拓宽为恒生科技指数级篮子行情？",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bcb6104b49e7/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "国内流动性、政策与南向资金持续性，能否把港股平台AI重估拓宽为恒生科技指数级篮子行情？",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-34817c5a8114",
      "title": "2026-07-18 公用事业观点：AI 负荷只有在成本归因可执行时才会变成监管收益",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-34817c5a8114/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 公用事业观点：AI 负荷只有在成本归因可执行时才会变成监管收益",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-955f75dff2c9",
      "title": "2026-07-18 策略研究记录：从芯片 Beta 轮动到签约电力现金流的仓位规模",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-955f75dff2c9/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 策略研究记录：从芯片 Beta 轮动到签约电力现金流的仓位规模",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-db4e8ae2c571",
      "title": "2026-07-26 首席经济学家开题：7月FOMC是“鹰派暂停”，不是通胀解除警报",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-db4e8ae2c571/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-26 首席经济学家开题：7月FOMC是“鹰派暂停”，不是通胀解除警报",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-cd0f081243ba",
      "title": "PJM Backstop 采购的物理幻觉：供应链约束下商业发电容量 Beta 的坚守",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cd0f081243ba/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "PJM Backstop 采购的物理幻觉：供应链约束下商业发电容量 Beta 的坚守",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-c0f906195aa0",
      "title": "仓位构建与风险预算：生物技术与科技股的“成长双端哑铃”配置 — 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c0f906195aa0/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "仓位构建与风险预算：生物技术与科技股的“成长双端哑铃”配置 — 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-d5bf08aeaee7",
      "title": "银行袖套升至40%后30/55/10/5基座的权重与止损重算（2026-07-18）",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d5bf08aeaee7/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "银行袖套升至40%后30/55/10/5基座的权重与止损重算（2026-07-18）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-3ed598232306",
      "title": "食品CPI的\"由负转正\"是算术，不是通胀——CPI/PPI组合指向的是宽松，不是收紧",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3ed598232306/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "食品CPI的\"由负转正\"是算术，不是通胀——CPI/PPI组合指向的是宽松，不是收紧",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-5fd507219068",
      "title": "2026-07-18｜AI基础设施压力测试：capex、GPU集群利用率与电力约束",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5fd507219068/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18｜AI基础设施压力测试：capex、GPU集群利用率与电力约束",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-b748e03bcb0b",
      "title": "压力测试：A股核心电气设备商的订单质量、产能兑现与回款质量（2026-07-18）",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b748e03bcb0b/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "压力测试：A股核心电气设备商的订单质量、产能兑现与回款质量（2026-07-18）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-ca665f8df11b",
      "title": "土地财政传导：−31.2% 的土地出让金塌陷如何约束地方政府性基金预算与城投再融资",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ca665f8df11b/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "土地财政传导：−31.2% 的土地出让金塌陷如何约束地方政府性基金预算与城投再融资",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "宏观",
        "A股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-ec7a29a7a30c",
      "title": "工业通胀偏硬情景下CNH、EUR、JPY与EMFX的排序 - 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ec7a29a7a30c/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "工业通胀偏硬情景下CNH、EUR、JPY与EMFX的排序 - 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-f065da14ff15",
      "title": "电力市场设计如何把配储从强制资本开支变成可融资收入（工作日：2026-07-18）",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f065da14ff15/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "电力市场设计如何把配储从强制资本开支变成可融资收入（工作日：2026-07-18）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-7398b9fe7cd1",
      "title": "2026-07-18 — 先进封装环节汇兑风险对全球AI算力及下游集群的传导分析",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7398b9fe7cd1/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 — 先进封装环节汇兑风险对全球AI算力及下游集群的传导分析",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-089aafadd25b",
      "title": "2026-07-18 研究记录07：长鑫科技、科创硬科技资金与流动性配给压力测试",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-089aafadd25b/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 研究记录07：长鑫科技、科创硬科技资金与流动性配给压力测试",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-71e6b87347eb",
      "title": "2026-07-18 策略研究记录：篮子C轮动的久期、信用与权益Beta对冲结构",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-71e6b87347eb/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 策略研究记录：篮子C轮动的久期、信用与权益Beta对冲结构",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-346a9dc6263c",
      "title": "Apple中国AI获批之后：港股平台、Apple中国份额、A股换机链，谁先重估？",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-346a9dc6263c/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "Apple中国AI获批之后：港股平台、Apple中国份额、A股换机链，谁先重估？",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-f72f45969916",
      "title": "Section 232供给侧捕获：中国干式变压器能否把AI电力需求变成可捕获毛利",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f72f45969916/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "Section 232供给侧捕获：中国干式变压器能否把AI电力需求变成可捕获毛利",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-e1513a601679",
      "title": "半导体 ETF 拥挤度与资金结构变迁研究报告",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e1513a601679/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "分析师： TMT Analyst (agy) 报告基准日： 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-c4b32c0485d8",
      "title": "研究记录05 混合触发器下的权益/债券/现金仓位再校准 - 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c4b32c0485d8/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录05 混合触发器下的权益/债券/现金仓位再校准 - 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-12f916077d7c",
      "title": "红利ETF申赎、两融余额与相对成交触发器核验 — 工作日期：2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-12f916077d7c/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "红利ETF申赎、两融余额与相对成交触发器核验 — 工作日期：2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-3389392c8e17",
      "title": "2026-07-18 — AI CapEx 串联约束链：从硅片侧转向内存与电力",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3389392c8e17/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 — AI CapEx 串联约束链：从硅片侧转向内存与电力",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-0bd4ebfb4286",
      "title": "2026-07-18 — 中国 AI 硬件出口通道是一条隐藏的资本开支多头敞口",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0bd4ebfb4286/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 — 中国 AI 硬件出口通道是一条隐藏的资本开支多头敞口",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-93cee5f1552a",
      "title": "2026-07-18 — 合并成长去杠杆风险与受限红利地板后的A股风格权重结论",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-93cee5f1552a/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 — 合并成长去杠杆风险与受限红利地板后的A股风格权重结论",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-3d743ea73288",
      "title": "2026-07-18 对 65 核心 + 35 防御 AI 芯片杠铃的整合验证",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3d743ea73288/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 对 65 核心 + 35 防御 AI 芯片杠铃的整合验证",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-19ebf8e620e9",
      "title": "IWM交易综合：权重、Go/No-Go触发器与止损规则（2026-07-18）",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-19ebf8e620e9/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "IWM交易综合：权重、Go/No-Go触发器与止损规则（2026-07-18）",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-2f3a1a6c2bcd",
      "title": "th T07 三条腿的实证检验 — A股AI硬件篮子 — 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2f3a1a6c2bcd/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "th T07 三条腿的实证检验 — A股AI硬件篮子 — 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-0c09cc177d26",
      "title": "政策对冲能否阻止A股两融第二/第三档触发？- 2026-07-18 [自测算]",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0c09cc177d26/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "政策对冲能否阻止A股两融第二/第三档触发？- 2026-07-18 [自测算]",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-63e4621b42c8",
      "title": "钢价不是那个摆动变量，出口退税才是——压力测试国内政策通道对中集海工毛利的传导",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-63e4621b42c8/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "钢价不是那个摆动变量，出口退税才是——压力测试国内政策通道对中集海工毛利的传导",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-4c06d077d6e8",
      "title": "银行净息差 1.40% 监管底线下，L1 银行腿的利率表达本质与可证伪判据检验",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4c06d077d6e8/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "银行净息差 1.40% 监管底线下，L1 银行腿的利率表达本质与可证伪判据检验",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-f118a3b8e18c",
      "title": "2026-07-18 — A股AI硬件与半导体板块的估值分化与两融去杠杆压力",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f118a3b8e18c/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 — A股AI硬件与半导体板块的估值分化与两融去杠杆压力",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-63d94278ae71",
      "title": "2026-07-18 研究记录08：Apple中国AI跨市场配置链条最终QA",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-63d94278ae71/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 研究记录08：Apple中国AI跨市场配置链条最终QA",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "A股",
        "港美股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-d6afdb7c1821",
      "title": "AI数据中心 Time-to-Power 折价曲线 — 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d6afdb7c1821/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "AI数据中心 Time-to-Power 折价曲线 — 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "港美股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-9560dd2eba78",
      "title": "核心PCE路径与小盘股再融资缓解背后的前端利率开关 (2026-07-18)",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9560dd2eba78/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "核心PCE路径与小盘股再融资缓解背后的前端利率开关 (2026-07-18)",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-1e9f3da9f615",
      "title": "电力与电网瓶颈已成为 AI 算力的稀缺期权 - 工作日 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e9f3da9f615/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "电力与电网瓶颈已成为 AI 算力的稀缺期权 - 工作日 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-e4f9eee5f2a4",
      "title": "能源供给上限、9月FOMC尾部与广度轮动 — 工作日期 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e4f9eee5f2a4/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "能源供给上限、9月FOMC尾部与广度轮动 — 工作日期 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-1b55c8fc4489",
      "title": "财政政策底向 A 股风格的传导：基建 / 周期 / 高股息是否只剩托底交易？",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1b55c8fc4489/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "财政政策底向 A 股风格的传导：基建 / 周期 / 高股息是否只剩托底交易？",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-75f644ffb408",
      "title": "2026-07-18 — 价值风格拆解：真实防御价值 vs AI硬件伪价值",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-75f644ffb408/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 — 价值风格拆解：真实防御价值 vs AI硬件伪价值",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-8d1ab4524c3d",
      "title": "2026-07-18 — 将A股哑铃升格为跨资产立场：久期、黄金与付费凸性",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8d1ab4524c3d/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 — 将A股哑铃升格为跨资产立场：久期、黄金与付费凸性",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-132ad26d6635",
      "title": "2026-07-18 电力约束下AI硬件与规管公用事业的资产配置与风格切换",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-132ad26d6635/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 电力约束下AI硬件与规管公用事业的资产配置与风格切换",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-888d7303dbb9",
      "title": "2026-07-18 研究记录06：长鑫科技IPO与国产存储的局部重估可能",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-888d7303dbb9/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 研究记录06：长鑫科技IPO与国产存储的局部重估可能",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-20b2a7a79981",
      "title": "2026-07-18 策略：做多 AI 电力守门人，做空迟到的 AI 叙事",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-20b2a7a79981/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 策略：做多 AI 电力守门人，做空迟到的 AI 叙事",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-0af3aae52d3d",
      "title": "A股与H股出海创新药企业及Biotech的BD交易估值重构与管线催化剂分析",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0af3aae52d3d/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "A股与H股出海创新药企业及Biotech的BD交易估值重构与管线催化剂分析",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-dd83a2c777e2",
      "title": "CNH流动性、人民币中间价管理与A股两融压力测试 - 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dd83a2c777e2/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "CNH流动性、人民币中间价管理与A股两融压力测试 - 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-bd400c70bc97",
      "title": "KRE稳定性与CRE风险：IWM交易的信用闸门验证（2026-07-18）",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd400c70bc97/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "KRE稳定性与CRE风险：IWM交易的信用闸门验证（2026-07-18）",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-33bc583bd579",
      "title": "中国资产荒下的风险平价：红利底座、固收、黄金与商品（2026-07-18）",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-33bc583bd579/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "中国资产荒下的风险平价：红利底座、固收、黄金与商品（2026-07-18）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-dc0b35293c19",
      "title": "为两种10Y体制构建债券腿与利率凸性叠加（2026-07-18）",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dc0b35293c19/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 立场：synthesize · 作者角色：全球宏观分析师 ·",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-0bbf89229dce",
      "title": "宽基被托、科创出清：A股风格重排的可证伪时点，与D1–D4判据的指数级改写",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0bbf89229dce/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "宽基被托、科创出清：A股风格重排的可证伪时点，与D1–D4判据的指数级改写",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-c02abbfd8b38",
      "title": "小盘是风险扩散缺口，还是空头挤压燃料？ —— 2026年7月18日策略研判",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c02abbfd8b38/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "小盘是风险扩散缺口，还是空头挤压燃料？ —— 2026年7月18日策略研判",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-49a6ac96916e",
      "title": "油价→核心通胀的传导阈值与美联储反应函数 — 工作日 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-49a6ac96916e/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "油价→核心通胀的传导阈值与美联储反应函数 — 工作日 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-8fa4c7608f7b",
      "title": "研究记录07报告 - A股工业主题腿行业仓位规则 - 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8fa4c7608f7b/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录07报告 - A股工业主题腿行业仓位规则 - 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-7c36ff47023e",
      "title": "稳定资金落点与边际定价权：宽基ETF拿走大头，科创半导体ETF拿不到维稳钱",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7c36ff47023e/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "稳定资金落点与边际定价权：宽基ETF拿走大头，科创半导体ETF拿不到维稳钱",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-8854fd65ab91",
      "title": "2026-07-18 - 人民币升值路径、出口硬科技盈利与对冲后美元债腿",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8854fd65ab91/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 - 人民币升值路径、出口硬科技盈利与对冲后美元债腿",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-b73180534438",
      "title": "2026-07-18 — 阿里云AI变现与capex/FCF拖累压力测试",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b73180534438/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 — 阿里云AI变现与capex/FCF拖累压力测试",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-d7b81fb65c48",
      "title": "2026-07-18 宏观压力测试:AI 资本开支超级周期的三重计数尾部",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d7b81fb65c48/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 宏观压力测试:AI 资本开支超级周期的三重计数尾部",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-772713a0cbeb",
      "title": "2026-07-18 策略报告：跨资产利率分支向A股风格与行业权重的转译",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-772713a0cbeb/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026-07-18 策略报告：跨资产利率分支向A股风格与行业权重的转译",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-1cb82fee9170",
      "title": "AIDC电力需求压力测试：维持20%封顶（工作日：2026-07-18）",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1cb82fee9170/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "AIDC电力需求压力测试：维持20%封顶（工作日：2026-07-18）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-32691141c1bb",
      "title": "技改再贷款传导效率与地方财政挤出效应对先进制造CAPEX的影响：压力测试",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-32691141c1bb/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "技改再贷款传导效率与地方财政挤出效应对先进制造CAPEX的影响：压力测试",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-da5210af62a9",
      "title": "电网设备策略中债券腿的久期匹配与利率风险压力测试（2026-07-18）",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-da5210af62a9/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "电网设备策略中债券腿的久期匹配与利率风险压力测试（2026-07-18）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-e3f0b69052b9",
      "title": "租金确实在被再分配——但方向与 既有研究记录、既有研究记录所担心的相反",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e3f0b69052b9/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "租金确实在被再分配——但方向与 既有研究记录、既有研究记录所担心的相反",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-308945d179c3",
      "title": "布伦特能否物理守住 20 联储阈值？— 工作日 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-308945d179c3/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "布伦特能否物理守住 20 联储阈值？— 工作日 2026-07-18",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-c413fc801eb4",
      "title": "AI估值下修窗口的跨资产配置方案 — 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c413fc801eb4/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "既有研究记录· 首席策略师 · 立场：综合（synthesize）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-d96c051bf6ef",
      "title": "台韩AI集中度风险下的货币对冲栈 - 2026-07-18",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d96c051bf6ef/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "既有研究记录· 全球宏观分析师 · 立场：synthesize",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    }
  ],
  "discussions": [],
  "thesisEvents": [
    {
      "id": "thesis-03dab97a77",
      "title": "人民币稳定使当前应保留滞胀杠铃，但用黄金、久期与轻USD对冲把组合从单一A股Beta改造成可按黄/红档汇率阶梯再平衡的跨资产防御组合。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币稳定使当前应保留滞胀杠铃，但用黄金、久期与轻USD对冲把组合从单一A股Beta改造成可按黄/红档汇率阶梯再平衡的跨资产防御组合。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-03dab97a77/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "CNH流动性、人民币中间价管理与A股两融压力测试 - 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "CNH流动性、人民币中间价管理与A股两融压力测试 - 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dd83a2c777e2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "ETF托底、两融去杠杆、跨资产对冲与USD/CNY传导的终审风控质检",
          "summary": "工作日期： 2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡）[自测算] · [自测算] · 研究记录 [自测算] · 终审评级： 需修订 [自测算]",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-426911da25d3/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "输入型尾部的CNY传导：鹰派FOMC下USD/CNY是逼出还是缓解A股去杠杆，及对冲腿的货币口径",
          "summary": "输入型尾部的CNY传导：鹰派FOMC下USD/CNY是逼出还是缓解A股去杠杆，及对冲腿的货币口径",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a199648eaddd/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "滞胀性高利率环境下的跨资产定规模：久期、盈亏平衡、股票beta与USD",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 首席策略师（ chief-strategist ）· 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 立场： synthesize（综合研究记录–05）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1d1ff8c033d3/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-2e367ef854",
      "title": "美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2e367ef854/",
      "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08",
      "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "核心PCE与核心CPI楔形：可持续去通胀，还是能源假动作？",
          "summary": "既有研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 立场： stress-test（对 既有研究记录的压力测试）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-337eb9ac25c8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 策略研究记录：围绕7月25日PCE / 7月28–29日FOMC，为\"信用≈久期哑铃\"与A/B→C轮动定...",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 策略研究记录：围绕7月25日PCE / 7月28–29日FOMC，为\"信用≈久期哑铃\"与A/B→C轮动定规模与排序",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-60358d94971c/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-26 首席经济学家开题：7月FOMC是“鹰派暂停”，不是通胀解除警报",
          "summary": "2026-07-26 首席经济学家开题：7月FOMC是“鹰派暂停”，不是通胀解除警报",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-db4e8ae2c571/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "油价/霍尔木兹冲击与7月FOMC加息尾部：通胀型利率尾部能否证伪广度轮动？ — 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "油价/霍尔木兹冲击与7月FOMC加息尾部：通胀型利率尾部能否证伪广度轮动？ — 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3cd7db392b79/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "XLE",
        "XLU",
        "TLT"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-6ae5e48f60",
      "title": "折算率冲击目前更像高估值拥挤交易的局部去杠杆，而非已经形成全市场融资平仓链条。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 折算率冲击目前更像高估值拥挤交易的局部去杠杆，而非已经形成全市场融资平仓链条。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6ae5e48f60/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 5,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 — A股AI硬件与半导体板块的估值分化与两融去杠杆压力",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 — A股AI硬件与半导体板块的估值分化与两融去杠杆压力",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f118a3b8e18c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "研究记录 06 · 2026-07-18 · 半导体与ODM重定价下的两融与股权质押杠杆出清压力",
          "summary": "研究记录 06 · 2026-07-18 · 半导体与ODM重定价下的两融与股权质押杠杆出清压力",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eff570fe8df6/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "外汇防御与两融去杠杆共振下的A股防线排序",
          "summary": "报告日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore 权威工作日；shell 已确认 2026-07-18 ）[自测算]。 research discussion Portal ID: [source-id-redacted] 研究记录 分析师： chief-st...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-18c4061278ad/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "ETF托底能否吸收A股两融去杠杆？",
          "summary": "研究记录 — 首席策略师 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8cce81498e6e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688256.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688008.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-10f0672291",
      "title": "科创50单日+8.41%后，团队应把硬科技升为中期主线，还是在两融、广度、ETF申赎确认前按拥挤反弹处理？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50单日+8.41%后，团队应把硬科技升为中期主线，还是在两融、广度、ETF申赎确认前按拥挤反弹处理？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-10f0672291/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 71,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股风格切换的市场结构归因：两融去杠杆、ETF资金流与估值分化的量化拆解与成长股出清门槛评估报告",
          "summary": "A股风格切换的市场结构归因：两融去杠杆、ETF资金流与估值分化的量化拆解与成长股出清门槛评估报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-abe17da5f862/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "A股两融清算路径与硬科技板块平仓风险压力测试",
          "summary": "分析师：chief-strategist（首席策略师） · 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） · 研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] · 立场： 合成（SYNTHESIZE）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-679d98446c14/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "两条资金流的微观结构：ETF流入的资金属性与两融剩余去化空间",
          "summary": "研究记录 — 首席策略师 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 立场：压力测试（STRESS-TEST）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dadcea40bdda/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "ETF托底能否吸收A股两融去杠杆？",
          "summary": "研究记录 — 首席策略师 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8cce81498e6e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "588000.SH",
        "688256.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688008.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "688041.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-8bbbcdf5a4",
      "title": "GPU、HBM 与先进封装决定 AI 资本开支供给节奏",
      "titleEn": "GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging shape the AI capex supply cycle",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8bbbcdf5a4/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 4,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "TSMC 2027-2029先进制程与先进封装负载能否吸收折旧墙",
          "summary": "· 半导体分析师 · 研究记录 · 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 立场：stress-test——我支持前序研究的时间时点框架，但针对“数据中心并网延后6-12个月”...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5320da0f6118/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI Capex 路径分化：从芯片驱动到内制芯片与\"算力即可交易资产\"",
          "summary": "研究记录 — 分析师：TMT 行业分析师（tmt-analyst）· 工作日：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：initial — 综合（支持\"物理容量囤积\"论点，压力测试\"平台期\"论点）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4dc6c3abc562/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 AI 资本开支消化气穴仪表盘:公司与供应链披露",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师: AI基础设施分析师 (ai-infrastructure-analyst) 工作日期: 2026-07-18 (Asia/Singapore) · 立场: 压力测试 主题: Microsoft、Alphabet、Meta、Amazon、CoreWeave、AVGO、N...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cbc2311a4a28/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "电力与电网瓶颈已成为 AI 算力的稀缺期权 - 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "电力与电网瓶颈已成为 AI 算力的稀缺期权 - 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e9f3da9f615/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "META",
        "AMD",
        "AVGO",
        "MU",
        "MSFT",
        "000660.KS",
        "GOOGL",
        "AMZN"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-025e4c0d2d",
      "title": "复合材料业务修复向利润增长传导",
      "titleEn": "Composite-Materials Recovery Transmits into Earnings Growth",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-025e4c0d2d/",
      "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80",
      "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 64,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "将储能系统价值篮子转化为可执行A股权重与因子控制",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 作者： 首席策略师 - 机构基准工作日： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） - 根主题： 从\"装机竞赛\"进入\"系统价值竞赛\" - 立场： 综合（承接研究记录 01–03；把定性篮子落地为权重＋风...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-06d3f85f2b3c/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18：维持20% AI电力封顶下的A股再平衡规则",
          "summary": "截至2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore），shell 校验返回 2026-07-18；本报告以2026-07-18作为权威工作日。 [自测算: 系统日期锚 返回2026-07-18] 现场工作区缺少 研究档案 、 analyst-c...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-160003fbf099/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "从可融资储能收入堆栈到组合权重（工作日：2026-07-18）",
          "summary": "截至 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore），shell 校验返回 2026-07-18；本报告以该日期为权威工作日。 [自测算: 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-18] 我对前两张卡作综合并支持：可投资的稀缺资产不再是...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8c99e8f369d7/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18：+600 bps AI电力篮子的因子与拥挤度监控",
          "summary": "截至2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）， 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-18，因此本报告以2026-07-18作为权威工作日。 [自测算: shell 命令 系统日期锚 返回2026-07-18] 现场工作区缺少 session-...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c2ebdfb52193/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "300274.SZ",
        "002028.SZ",
        "300750.SZ",
        "002080.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-241377c8be",
      "title": "显示材料改善需由利润率与现金流共同确认",
      "titleEn": "Display-material recovery requires joint margin and cash-flow confirmation",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-241377c8be/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 59,
      "supports": 3,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 — 价值风格拆解：真实防御价值 vs AI硬件伪价值",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 — 价值风格拆解：真实防御价值 vs AI硬件伪价值",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-75f644ffb408/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "研报：SK海力士265亿美元纳指上市对全球半导体流向及估值的重构",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师： TMT行业分析师（agy） 研究门户： 研究记录 当前立场： 初始 / 支持（Initial / Support）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7d412f061154/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 亚洲半导体链敏感度：为2026-07-29利用率/ROI冲击构建的\"双时钟\"排序",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 亚洲半导体链敏感度：为2026-07-29利用率/ROI冲击构建的\"双时钟\"排序",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f391baebe2cc/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18｜AI基础设施压力测试：capex、GPU集群利用率与电力约束",
          "summary": "2026-07-18｜AI基础设施压力测试：capex、GPU集群利用率与电力约束",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5fd507219068/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "NVDA",
        "ASML",
        "000660.KS",
        "MU",
        "002916.SZ",
        "600552.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-9a860a8801",
      "title": "信用再融资压力正在把利率风险转化为资产负债表筛选",
      "titleEn": "Credit refinancing pressure is turning rate risk into balance-sheet selection",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a860a8801/",
      "laneId": "lane_b29e1d216a21",
      "lane": "信用再融资/私募信贷",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/credit-refinancing-and-private-debt/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 52,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 9,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "核心PCE路径与小盘股再融资缓解背后的前端利率开关 (2026-07-18)",
          "summary": "核心PCE路径与小盘股再融资缓解背后的前端利率开关 (2026-07-18)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9560dd2eba78/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "利率开关开启后的小盘股配置路径（2026-07-18）",
          "summary": "立场：压力测试 (STRESS-TEST) —— 截至 2026-07-18，我不是简单支持前序宏观结论，而是对其做配置层面的压力测试：2 年期美债收益率跌破 4.00% 是超配 Russell 2000（IWM）相对 SPY 和 QQQ 的...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-835e2d6bc5ab/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "KRE/XLF 广度加码压力测试：利率凸性对冲下的信贷风险评估 — 报告日期 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "KRE/XLF 广度加码压力测试：利率凸性对冲下的信贷风险评估 — 报告日期 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c5a5f00c64f/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026年二季度美股银行股财报与XLF超额收益：盈利广度确认，还是高利率尾部风险的短暂受益？",
          "summary": "2026年二季度美股银行股财报与XLF超额收益：盈利广度确认，还是高利率尾部风险的短暂受益？ 权威工作日期：2026-07-18 作者：首席策略师 (Chief Strategist)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-da34e9b7ff22/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "KRE",
        "JPM",
        "META",
        "BX",
        "ARES",
        "KKR",
        "APO"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-5a0bd732f3",
      "title": "A股杠铃策略应落地为“红利蓝筹压舱 + 硬科技成长进攻 + 轮动仓位调节”的三层结构，两融是成长端驱动力，ETF赎回和限售股解禁是仓位上限。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股杠铃策略应落地为“红利蓝筹压舱 + 硬科技成长进攻 + 轮动仓位调节”的三层结构，两融是成长端驱动力，ETF赎回和限售股解禁是仓位上限。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5a0bd732f3/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股风格切换的市场结构归因：两融去杠杆、ETF资金流与估值分化的量化拆解与成长股出清门槛评估报告",
          "summary": "A股风格切换的市场结构归因：两融去杠杆、ETF资金流与估值分化的量化拆解与成长股出清门槛评估报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-abe17da5f862/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "红利ETF申赎、两融余额与相对成交触发器核验 — 工作日期：2026-07-18",
          "summary": "红利ETF申赎、两融余额与相对成交触发器核验 — 工作日期：2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-12f916077d7c/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "A股两融清算路径与硬科技板块平仓风险压力测试",
          "summary": "分析师：chief-strategist（首席策略师） · 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） · 研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] · 立场： 合成（SYNTHESIZE）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-679d98446c14/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "588000.SH",
        "510300.SH",
        "300750.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-7a2fc614c1",
      "title": "在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a2fc614c1/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 — A股AI硬件与半导体板块的估值分化与两融去杠杆压力",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 — A股AI硬件与半导体板块的估值分化与两融去杠杆压力",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f118a3b8e18c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "电力与电网瓶颈已成为 AI 算力的稀缺期权 - 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "电力与电网瓶颈已成为 AI 算力的稀缺期权 - 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e9f3da9f615/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "半导体 ETF 拥挤度与资金结构变迁研究报告",
          "summary": "分析师： TMT Analyst (agy) 报告基准日： 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e1513a601679/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "002028.SZ",
        "600089.SH",
        "601179.SH",
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "CEG",
        "VST"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-6fd1b8808d",
      "title": "资金成本上行与长端利率有锚下的A股风格轮动和金融板块配置",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 资金成本上行与长端利率有锚下的A股风格轮动和金融板块配置",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6fd1b8808d/",
      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 3,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "0.50%票据利率下限对A股红利资产低折现率定价的持续性评估",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师 · 工作基准日：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 根课题： 0.50%票据利率下限下，A股红利资产低折现率定价的持续性 立场： initial —— 确立研究所基线判断",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-277821f7831b/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "研究报告：电力链叙事升级、A股红利拥挤度与板块轮动",
          "summary": "研究报告：电力链叙事升级、A股红利拥挤度与板块轮动 分析师： 首席策略师 工作日期： 2026-07-18 立场： 支持，但采用可测算的再分桶框架",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4827ea368ae8/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 策略报告：跨资产利率分支向A股风格与行业权重的转译",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 策略报告：跨资产利率分支向A股风格与行业权重的转译",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-772713a0cbeb/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "601088.SH",
        "601398.SH",
        "600941.SH",
        "510880.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d0faeae7f0",
      "title": "NAND价格与产品组合驱动SanDisk盈利弹性",
      "titleEn": "NAND pricing and mix drive SanDisk earnings leverage",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d0faeae7f0/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 72,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 — 价值风格拆解：真实防御价值 vs AI硬件伪价值",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 — 价值风格拆解：真实防御价值 vs AI硬件伪价值",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-75f644ffb408/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI硬件估值框架 — 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "截至本院工作日2026-07-18，我支持既有院内判断：AI算力估值正在走出单纯GPU稀缺叙事，但更准确的表述不是一次性从GPU切换到别的资产，而是进入“瓶颈分层”框架：Time-to-Power成为第一估值变...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-78714cf87163/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 亚洲半导体链敏感度：为2026-07-29利用率/ROI冲击构建的\"双时钟\"排序",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 亚洲半导体链敏感度：为2026-07-29利用率/ROI冲击构建的\"双时钟\"排序",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f391baebe2cc/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS",
        "META",
        "AMD"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-ab1fb6a453",
      "title": "DeepSeek 式低价模型正在重塑 AI 定价权与软件利润池",
      "titleEn": "DeepSeek-style low-cost models are reshaping AI pricing power and software profit pools",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ab1fb6a453/",
      "laneId": "lane_13710af7e06d",
      "lane": "低价模型/AI 软件利润池",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/low-cost-models-and-ai-software-profit-pools/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 72,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Apple中国AI获批之后：港股平台、Apple中国份额、A股换机链，谁先重估？",
          "summary": "Apple中国AI获批之后：港股平台、Apple中国份额、A股换机链，谁先重估？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-346a9dc6263c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 — 阿里云AI变现与capex/FCF拖累压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 — 阿里云AI变现与capex/FCF拖累压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b73180534438/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 — 恒生科技：整体上调篮子，还是个股精选式重估？",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 首席策略师 · 立场：synthesize · 工作日 2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ec0ba624463e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "BABA",
        "MSFT",
        "BIDU",
        "9988.HK",
        "CRM",
        "0700.HK",
        "NVDA",
        "NOW",
        "9888.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-ffa474a3f2",
      "title": "端侧 AI 与 Agent 桌面正在把算力竞争从云端扩展到芯片、OS 与消费电子供应链",
      "titleEn": "Edge AI and agent desktops are extending compute competition from cloud to chips, OS, and consumer-electronics supply...",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ffa474a3f2/",
      "laneId": "lane_74d352e86208",
      "lane": "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/edge-ai-and-agent-desktop-cycle/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 68,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Apple中国AI获批之后：港股平台、Apple中国份额、A股换机链，谁先重估？",
          "summary": "Apple中国AI获批之后：港股平台、Apple中国份额、A股换机链，谁先重估？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-346a9dc6263c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI硬件卖压外溢至亚洲半导体开盘 — 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-18，我支持把亚洲半导体开盘风险从单纯的“个股止盈”上调为“AI资本开支质疑”预警。关键区别是：目前证据仍更像估值、仓位和资本回报率焦虑，而不是AI订单已经确认塌...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aa05454045e1/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 研究记录08：Apple中国AI跨市场配置链条最终QA",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 研究记录08：Apple中国AI跨市场配置链条最终QA",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-63d94278ae71/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "MSFT",
        "NVDA",
        "META",
        "AAPL",
        "AMZN",
        "AMD",
        "ARM",
        "QCOM",
        "GOOGL",
        "002475.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0",
      "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层",
      "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/",
      "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a",
      "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 AI 资本开支消化气穴仪表盘:公司与供应链披露",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师: AI基础设施分析师 (ai-infrastructure-analyst) 工作日期: 2026-07-18 (Asia/Singapore) · 立场: 压力测试 主题: Microsoft、Alphabet、Meta、Amazon、CoreWeave、AVGO、N...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cbc2311a4a28/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI Capex 路径分化：从芯片驱动到内制芯片与\"算力即可交易资产\"",
          "summary": "研究记录 — 分析师：TMT 行业分析师（tmt-analyst）· 工作日：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：initial — 综合（支持\"物理容量囤积\"论点，压力测试\"平台期\"论点）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4dc6c3abc562/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18｜AI基础设施压力测试：capex、GPU集群利用率与电力约束",
          "summary": "2026-07-18｜AI基础设施压力测试：capex、GPU集群利用率与电力约束",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5fd507219068/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "NVDA",
        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL",
        "TSM",
        "AVGO",
        "AAPL",
        "TSLA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-34ed317472",
      "title": "A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-34ed317472/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "ETF托底能否吸收A股两融去杠杆？",
          "summary": "研究记录 — 首席策略师 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8cce81498e6e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "A股风格切换的市场结构归因：两融去杠杆、ETF资金流与估值分化的量化拆解与成长股出清门槛评估报告",
          "summary": "A股风格切换的市场结构归因：两融去杠杆、ETF资金流与估值分化的量化拆解与成长股出清门槛评估报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-abe17da5f862/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "红利ETF申赎、两融余额与相对成交触发器核验 — 工作日期：2026-07-18",
          "summary": "红利ETF申赎、两融余额与相对成交触发器核验 — 工作日期：2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-12f916077d7c/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "588000.SH",
        "510300.SH",
        "512100.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-70daf87262",
      "title": "A 股红利与硬科技杠铃仍是政策、利率和风险偏好的组合表达",
      "titleEn": "A-share dividend and hard-tech barbell remains the portfolio expression of policy, rates, and risk appetite",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-70daf87262/",
      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "direction": "strengthening",
      "directionLabel": "强化",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "0.50%票据利率下限对A股红利资产低折现率定价的持续性评估",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师 · 工作基准日：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 根课题： 0.50%票据利率下限下，A股红利资产低折现率定价的持续性 立场： initial —— 确立研究所基线判断",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-277821f7831b/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "A股风格切换的市场结构归因：两融去杠杆、ETF资金流与估值分化的量化拆解与成长股出清门槛评估报告",
          "summary": "A股风格切换的市场结构归因：两融去杠杆、ETF资金流与估值分化的量化拆解与成长股出清门槛评估报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-abe17da5f862/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 — 合并成长去杠杆风险与受限红利地板后的A股风格权重结论",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 — 合并成长去杠杆风险与受限红利地板后的A股风格权重结论",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-93cee5f1552a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "601398.SH",
        "601088.SH",
        "600941.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "601939.SH",
        "510880.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4e383ee09c",
      "title": "2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4e383ee09c/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18｜AI基础设施压力测试：capex、GPU集群利用率与电力约束",
          "summary": "2026-07-18｜AI基础设施压力测试：capex、GPU集群利用率与电力约束",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5fd507219068/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 — AI CapEx 串联约束链：从硅片侧转向内存与电力",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 — AI CapEx 串联约束链：从硅片侧转向内存与电力",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3389392c8e17/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "TSMC 2027-2029先进制程与先进封装负载能否吸收折旧墙",
          "summary": "· 半导体分析师 · 研究记录 · 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 立场：stress-test——我支持前序研究的时间时点框架，但针对“数据中心并网延后6-12个月”...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5320da0f6118/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-cb2ab35c55",
      "title": "AI 基础设施扩张从规模驱动切换到 TCO、能效和利用率筛选",
      "titleEn": "AI infrastructure expansion is shifting from scale to TCO, power efficiency, and utilization screening",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-cb2ab35c55/",
      "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87",
      "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 58,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "TSMC 2027-2029先进制程与先进封装负载能否吸收折旧墙",
          "summary": "· 半导体分析师 · 研究记录 · 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 立场：stress-test——我支持前序研究的时间时点框架，但针对“数据中心并网延后6-12个月”...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5320da0f6118/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "研究报告：可交付 AI 算力产能评分框架 (2026-2027)",
          "summary": "研究报告：可交付 AI 算力产能评分框架 (2026-2027) 日期：2026-07-18 分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst 核心关注：超大规模云厂商资本开支、电网并网瓶颈、AI 算力交付风险",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-84737ae30ce8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "电力与电网瓶颈已成为 AI 算力的稀缺期权 - 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "电力与电网瓶颈已成为 AI 算力的稀缺期权 - 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e9f3da9f615/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "AMD",
        "META",
        "MU",
        "MSFT",
        "AVGO",
        "VRT",
        "000660.KS",
        "DELL"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3d421524cd",
      "title": "油价地缘底线决定再通胀与降息交易的安全边际",
      "titleEn": "The geopolitical oil floor defines the margin of safety for disinflation and rate-cut trades",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3d421524cd/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 50,
      "supports": 3,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "油价/霍尔木兹冲击与7月FOMC加息尾部：通胀型利率尾部能否证伪广度轮动？ — 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "油价/霍尔木兹冲击与7月FOMC加息尾部：通胀型利率尾部能否证伪广度轮动？ — 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3cd7db392b79/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "油价→核心通胀的传导阈值与美联储反应函数 — 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "油价→核心通胀的传导阈值与美联储反应函数 — 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-49a6ac96916e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "量化能源权益对冲腿——在可接受 carry 下提供正油价 beta — 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "量化能源权益对冲腿——在可接受 carry 下提供正油价 beta — 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dda9f9e00532/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "CME",
        "CVX",
        "XOM",
        "600938.SH",
        "600900.SH",
        "0857.HK",
        "COP",
        "601857.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-59f298ff36",
      "title": "在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-59f298ff36/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 84,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股风格切换的市场结构归因：两融去杠杆、ETF资金流与估值分化的量化拆解与成长股出清门槛评估报告",
          "summary": "A股风格切换的市场结构归因：两融去杠杆、ETF资金流与估值分化的量化拆解与成长股出清门槛评估报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-abe17da5f862/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "红利ETF申赎、两融余额与相对成交触发器核验 — 工作日期：2026-07-18",
          "summary": "红利ETF申赎、两融余额与相对成交触发器核验 — 工作日期：2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-12f916077d7c/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688256.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "688012.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-bb46b0c3de",
      "title": "USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bb46b0c3de/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — USD/JPY触发带与日元carry平仓阈值校准",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 外汇策略师（fx-strategist） 工作日期： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 根主题： 日本JGB与日元carry是否会打断低VIX风险偏好 本报告...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f89a9169c7c4/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：稳定币流入在USD/CNY、EUR/USD与USD/JPY之间的传导与分配",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：稳定币流入在USD/CNY、EUR/USD与USD/JPY之间的传导与分配",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-876a88104049/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e4e956cd41",
      "title": "通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e4e956cd41/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — USD/JPY触发带与日元carry平仓阈值校准",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 外汇策略师（fx-strategist） 工作日期： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 根主题： 日本JGB与日元carry是否会打断低VIX风险偏好 本报告...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f89a9169c7c4/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：稳定币流入在USD/CNY、EUR/USD与USD/JPY之间的传导与分配",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：稳定币流入在USD/CNY、EUR/USD与USD/JPY之间的传导与分配",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-876a88104049/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-950a54ea98",
      "title": "保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-950a54ea98/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — USD/JPY触发带与日元carry平仓阈值校准",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 外汇策略师（fx-strategist） 工作日期： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 根主题： 日本JGB与日元carry是否会打断低VIX风险偏好 本报告...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f89a9169c7c4/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：稳定币流入在USD/CNY、EUR/USD与USD/JPY之间的传导与分配",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：稳定币流入在USD/CNY、EUR/USD与USD/JPY之间的传导与分配",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-876a88104049/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a4bf9a5c22",
      "title": "在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a4bf9a5c22/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 — A股AI硬件与半导体板块的估值分化与两融去杠杆压力",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 — A股AI硬件与半导体板块的估值分化与两融去杠杆压力",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f118a3b8e18c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 将半导体设备高配转化为A股交易与拥挤度控制规则",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： ashare-strategist · 立场： synthesize 权威工作日期： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ca74fff66bd0/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688256.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688012.SH",
        "688041.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "588000.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-86be10e7fb",
      "title": "为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-86be10e7fb/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "输入型尾部的CNY传导：鹰派FOMC下USD/CNY是逼出还是缓解A股去杠杆，及对冲腿的货币口径",
          "summary": "输入型尾部的CNY传导：鹰派FOMC下USD/CNY是逼出还是缓解A股去杠杆，及对冲腿的货币口径",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a199648eaddd/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 - USD/CNY 6.78 而非 7.30 时，未对冲美债腿的 FX 管理",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 - USD/CNY 6.78 而非 7.30 时，未对冲美债腿的 FX 管理",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-da455edda215/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "CVX",
        "XOM"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e58a9e8746",
      "title": "日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e58a9e8746/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — USD/JPY触发带与日元carry平仓阈值校准",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 外汇策略师（fx-strategist） 工作日期： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 根主题： 日本JGB与日元carry是否会打断低VIX风险偏好 本报告...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f89a9169c7c4/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：稳定币流入在USD/CNY、EUR/USD与USD/JPY之间的传导与分配",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：稳定币流入在USD/CNY、EUR/USD与USD/JPY之间的传导与分配",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-876a88104049/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-dfa08317f5",
      "title": "博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-dfa08317f5/",
      "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956",
      "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 — A股AI硬件与半导体板块的估值分化与两融去杠杆压力",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 — A股AI硬件与半导体板块的估值分化与两融去杠杆压力",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f118a3b8e18c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "th T07 三条腿的实证检验 — A股AI硬件篮子 — 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "th T07 三条腿的实证检验 — A股AI硬件篮子 — 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2f3a1a6c2bcd/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "300308.SZ",
        "300394.SZ",
        "300502.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d74ae315e8",
      "title": "当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d74ae315e8/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — USD/JPY触发带与日元carry平仓阈值校准",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 外汇策略师（fx-strategist） 工作日期： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 根主题： 日本JGB与日元carry是否会打断低VIX风险偏好 本报告...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f89a9169c7c4/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：稳定币流入在USD/CNY、EUR/USD与USD/JPY之间的传导与分配",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：稳定币流入在USD/CNY、EUR/USD与USD/JPY之间的传导与分配",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-876a88104049/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-24cd0b5ff9",
      "title": "在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-24cd0b5ff9/",
      "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a",
      "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 — AI CapEx 串联约束链：从硅片侧转向内存与电力",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 — AI CapEx 串联约束链：从硅片侧转向内存与电力",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3389392c8e17/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI Capex 路径分化：从芯片驱动到内制芯片与\"算力即可交易资产\"",
          "summary": "研究记录 — 分析师：TMT 行业分析师（tmt-analyst）· 工作日：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：initial — 综合（支持\"物理容量囤积\"论点，压力测试\"平台期\"论点）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4dc6c3abc562/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "GOOGL",
        "AMZN",
        "NVDA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-5c45703323",
      "title": "AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5c45703323/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI Capex 路径分化：从芯片驱动到内制芯片与\"算力即可交易资产\"",
          "summary": "研究记录 — 分析师：TMT 行业分析师（tmt-analyst）· 工作日：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：initial — 综合（支持\"物理容量囤积\"论点，压力测试\"平台期\"论点）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4dc6c3abc562/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 — AI CapEx 串联约束链：从硅片侧转向内存与电力",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 — AI CapEx 串联约束链：从硅片侧转向内存与电力",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3389392c8e17/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "NVDA",
        "AMD",
        "MU",
        "AVGO",
        "TSM",
        "000660.KS"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-69025fa4b4",
      "title": "驱动对冲阶梯的 Fed / BoJ / ECB 政策路径",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 驱动对冲阶梯的 Fed / BoJ / ECB 政策路径",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-69025fa4b4/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：稳定币流入在USD/CNY、EUR/USD与USD/JPY之间的传导与分配",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：稳定币流入在USD/CNY、EUR/USD与USD/JPY之间的传导与分配",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-876a88104049/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — USD/JPY触发带与日元carry平仓阈值校准",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 外汇策略师（fx-strategist） 工作日期： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 根主题： 日本JGB与日元carry是否会打断低VIX风险偏好 本报告...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f89a9169c7c4/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-29b1c0d6c7",
      "title": "日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-29b1c0d6c7/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — USD/JPY触发带与日元carry平仓阈值校准",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 外汇策略师（fx-strategist） 工作日期： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 根主题： 日本JGB与日元carry是否会打断低VIX风险偏好 本报告...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f89a9169c7c4/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：稳定币流入在USD/CNY、EUR/USD与USD/JPY之间的传导与分配",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：稳定币流入在USD/CNY、EUR/USD与USD/JPY之间的传导与分配",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-876a88104049/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-eefbf1a467",
      "title": "中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-eefbf1a467/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 - USD/CNY 6.78 而非 7.30 时，未对冲美债腿的 FX 管理",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 - USD/CNY 6.78 而非 7.30 时，未对冲美债腿的 FX 管理",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-da455edda215/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "输入型尾部的CNY传导：鹰派FOMC下USD/CNY是逼出还是缓解A股去杠杆，及对冲腿的货币口径",
          "summary": "输入型尾部的CNY传导：鹰派FOMC下USD/CNY是逼出还是缓解A股去杠杆，及对冲腿的货币口径",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a199648eaddd/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-594ba5e705",
      "title": "在中美利差走阔且输入型AI信用冲击升级的情形下，USD/CNY能否守住6.85缓冲翻转线",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在中美利差走阔且输入型AI信用冲击升级的情形下，USD/CNY能否守住6.85缓冲翻转线",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-594ba5e705/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "ETF托底、两融去杠杆、跨资产对冲与USD/CNY传导的终审风控质检",
          "summary": "工作日期： 2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡）[自测算] · [自测算] · 研究记录 [自测算] · 终审评级： 需修订 [自测算]",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-426911da25d3/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "输入型尾部的CNY传导：鹰派FOMC下USD/CNY是逼出还是缓解A股去杠杆，及对冲腿的货币口径",
          "summary": "输入型尾部的CNY传导：鹰派FOMC下USD/CNY是逼出还是缓解A股去杠杆，及对冲腿的货币口径",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a199648eaddd/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-c951442d7f",
      "title": "日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c951442d7f/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — USD/JPY触发带与日元carry平仓阈值校准",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 外汇策略师（fx-strategist） 工作日期： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 根主题： 日本JGB与日元carry是否会打断低VIX风险偏好 本报告...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f89a9169c7c4/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：稳定币流入在USD/CNY、EUR/USD与USD/JPY之间的传导与分配",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：稳定币流入在USD/CNY、EUR/USD与USD/JPY之间的传导与分配",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-876a88104049/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-fe66302bd9",
      "title": "美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fe66302bd9/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "CNH本位biotech/AI组合的汇率与利率对冲执行——最优对冲比例、工具选择与carry成本 — 截至 2026-...",
          "summary": "CNH本位biotech/AI组合的汇率与利率对冲执行——最优对冲比例、工具选择与carry成本 — 截至 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1a03cd73ec7b/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 - USD/CNY 6.78 而非 7.30 时，未对冲美债腿的 FX 管理",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 - USD/CNY 6.78 而非 7.30 时，未对冲美债腿的 FX 管理",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-da455edda215/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-859ab241bf",
      "title": "依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-859ab241bf/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 — A股AI硬件与半导体板块的估值分化与两融去杠杆压力",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 — A股AI硬件与半导体板块的估值分化与两融去杠杆压力",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f118a3b8e18c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "A股AI硬件轮动配置手册 — 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日 2026-07-18，本报告对前序逻辑采取“综合”而非否定：A股AI硬件复合体应按估值时钟敏感度先减仓，但按订单时钟可验证性先再入场。2026-07-17 的冲击已经传导到A股算力硬件和半...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a20fa350cc5e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "NVDA",
        "ASML",
        "688012.SH",
        "000660.KS",
        "MU",
        "002916.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-27c1e713e6",
      "title": "日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-27c1e713e6/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：稳定币流入在USD/CNY、EUR/USD与USD/JPY之间的传导与分配",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 全球宏观研究记录：稳定币流入在USD/CNY、EUR/USD与USD/JPY之间的传导与分配",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-876a88104049/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — USD/JPY触发带与日元carry平仓阈值校准",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 外汇策略师（fx-strategist） 工作日期： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 根主题： 日本JGB与日元carry是否会打断低VIX风险偏好 本报告...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f89a9169c7c4/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-2ee6c1cf01",
      "title": "39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2ee6c1cf01/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 — 加息风险体制与人民币“升值而非贬值”背景下，黄金与美债避险腿的压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 — 加息风险体制与人民币“升值而非贬值”背景下，黄金与美债避险腿的压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0aaca181a275/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 - 2026-07-18 - USD/CNH对冲结构的波动率敏感度与成本压力测试",
          "summary": "前序研究 - 2026-07-18 - USD/CNH对冲结构的波动率敏感度与成本压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cf0c7fd6c1f7/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e12bcc0d59",
      "title": "PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e12bcc0d59/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "ETF托底、两融去杠杆、跨资产对冲与USD/CNY传导的终审风控质检",
          "summary": "工作日期： 2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡）[自测算] · [自测算] · 研究记录 [自测算] · 终审评级： 需修订 [自测算]",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-426911da25d3/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "A股降杠杆阶段性底部后的信用扩张与货币政策稳底盘效能评估报告",
          "summary": "报告日期：2026-07-18 (Asia/Singapore) 分析师：global-macro（全球宏观分析师） 看板索引：03/08 · 研究立场：综合 (Synthesize)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-18a551b14381/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "588000.SH",
        "510300.SH",
        "512100.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-413f4aecc1",
      "title": "长江电力等红利拥挤度处于95%历史极值，且股息率利差压缩至历史低点，而在跨境分段生产解禁及创新药商业化兑现下医药板块大涨，这是否标志着A…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 长江电力等红利拥挤度处于95%历史极值，且股息率利差压缩至历史低点，而在跨境分段生产解禁及创新药商业化兑现下医药板块大涨，这是否标志着A…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-413f4aecc1/",
      "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e",
      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股风格轮动：成交量与融资买入约束下的创新药与红利资产",
          "summary": "作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) 日期： 2026-07-18 研究门户共享研究记录索引： 3/8",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ed961868b6d8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "研究报告：电力链叙事升级、A股红利拥挤度与板块轮动",
          "summary": "研究报告：电力链叙事升级、A股红利拥挤度与板块轮动 分析师： 首席策略师 工作日期： 2026-07-18 立场： 支持，但采用可测算的再分桶框架",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4827ea368ae8/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "600905.SH",
        "DUK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a7f43e67af",
      "title": "在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a7f43e67af/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "油价/霍尔木兹冲击与7月FOMC加息尾部：通胀型利率尾部能否证伪广度轮动？ — 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "油价/霍尔木兹冲击与7月FOMC加息尾部：通胀型利率尾部能否证伪广度轮动？ — 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3cd7db392b79/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "油价→核心通胀的传导阈值与美联储反应函数 — 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "油价→核心通胀的传导阈值与美联储反应函数 — 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-49a6ac96916e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
        "0883.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d8170c3a35",
      "title": "近海资本开支与设备利用率驱动油服盈利弹性",
      "titleEn": "Offshore capex and equipment utilization drive oilfield-service earnings leverage",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d8170c3a35/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 68,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "量化能源权益对冲腿——在可接受 carry 下提供正油价 beta — 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "量化能源权益对冲腿——在可接受 carry 下提供正油价 beta — 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dda9f9e00532/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "油价/霍尔木兹冲击与7月FOMC加息尾部：通胀型利率尾部能否证伪广度轮动？ — 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "油价/霍尔木兹冲击与7月FOMC加息尾部：通胀型利率尾部能否证伪广度轮动？ — 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3cd7db392b79/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "CVX",
        "XOM",
        "0883.HK",
        "COP",
        "2883.HK",
        "SLB",
        "OXY"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-0a0d09421e",
      "title": "AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0a0d09421e/",
      "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a",
      "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 AI数据中心电力接入仪表盘：压力测试云巨头签约量与电网现实的裂口",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 AI数据中心电力接入仪表盘：压力测试云巨头签约量与电网现实的裂口",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90e698259d43/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI数据中心电力建设的持久性：干变出口窗口的需求侧命门",
          "summary": "研究记录 · AI基础设施分析师 · 工作日期：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： 压力测试（支持持久性，但重新定价风险向量）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b9418016366e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "NVDA",
        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3f6ee4feb9",
      "title": "核电容量机制可改善现金流，但资本开支约束仍在",
      "titleEn": "Nuclear capacity mechanisms may improve cash flow, but capex remains binding",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3f6ee4feb9/",
      "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e",
      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "公用事业研究报告：数据中心转向 BTM 燃气电源后的费率基础防御（2026-07-18）",
          "summary": "公用事业研究报告：数据中心转向 BTM 燃气电源后的费率基础防御（2026-07-18）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b99afaef3af4/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "A股策略与行业配置报告：费率重构下AI-energy双哑铃组合权重再平衡 (2026-07-18)",
          "summary": "A股策略与行业配置报告：费率重构下AI-energy双哑铃组合权重再平衡 (2026-07-18)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cf4aa613f06f/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "CEG",
        "AEP",
        "600025.SH",
        "DUK",
        "1816.HK",
        "NEE"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a10279b001",
      "title": "面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a10279b001/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "研报：SK海力士265亿美元纳指上市对全球半导体流向及估值的重构",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师： TMT行业分析师（agy） 研究门户： 研究记录 当前立场： 初始 / 支持（Initial / Support）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7d412f061154/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 — 研究记录 02：AI 算力基础设施与能源瓶颈",
          "summary": "本报告按研究所工作日 2026-07-18 撰写。我支持前序研究的推理方向：AI 基础设施交易的下一层硬约束，正在从单纯的 GPU/HBM 供给转向 time-to-power，也就是能否把芯片订单转化为已并网、可冷却...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-29627640e1a7/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "AMD",
        "AVGO"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-9d3836cc07",
      "title": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证",
      "titleEn": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d3836cc07/",
      "laneId": "lane_008e3bd9306a",
      "lane": "AI 软件效率/生产率",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-software-productivity/",
      "direction": "stable",
      "directionLabel": "稳定",
      "conviction": 58,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 AI 资本开支消化气穴仪表盘:公司与供应链披露",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师: AI基础设施分析师 (ai-infrastructure-analyst) 工作日期: 2026-07-18 (Asia/Singapore) · 立场: 压力测试 主题: Microsoft、Alphabet、Meta、Amazon、CoreWeave、AVGO、N...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cbc2311a4a28/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 宏观压力测试:AI 资本开支超级周期的三重计数尾部",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 宏观压力测试:AI 资本开支超级周期的三重计数尾部",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d7b81fb65c48/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL",
        "NVDA",
        "NOW",
        "CRM",
        "ADBE"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d4473d35e5",
      "title": "猪周期、粮食与农产品价格决定中国低通胀修复的弹性",
      "titleEn": "Hog cycle, grain, and agricultural prices define the elasticity of China's low-inflation repair",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d4473d35e5/",
      "laneId": "lane_6e276fa53da1",
      "lane": "食品农业/猪周期",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-agriculture-and-hog-cycle/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 56,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "食品CPI的\"由负转正\"是算术，不是通胀——CPI/PPI组合指向的是宽松，不是收紧",
          "summary": "食品CPI的\"由负转正\"是算术，不是通胀——CPI/PPI组合指向的是宽松，不是收紧",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3ed598232306/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "食品产业链：超额收益已上移到上游蛋白的供给冲击",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 农业行业分析师（agri-analyst）· 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-30551534a6df/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "002714.SZ",
        "001215.SZ",
        "300498.SZ",
        "000876.SZ",
        "CME",
        "600298.SH",
        "ADM",
        "DBA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-075017003b",
      "title": "AI 资本开支通过能源、设备和利率进入通胀定价",
      "titleEn": "AI capex enters inflation pricing through energy, equipment, and rates",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-075017003b/",
      "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08",
      "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "stable",
      "directionLabel": "稳定",
      "conviction": 55,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "核心PCE与核心CPI楔形：可持续去通胀，还是能源假动作？",
          "summary": "既有研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 立场： stress-test（对 既有研究记录的压力测试）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-337eb9ac25c8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 策略研究记录：围绕7月25日PCE / 7月28–29日FOMC，为\"信用≈久期哑铃\"与A/B→C轮动定...",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 策略研究记录：围绕7月25日PCE / 7月28–29日FOMC，为\"信用≈久期哑铃\"与A/B→C轮动定规模与排序",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-60358d94971c/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL",
        "XLE",
        "TLT",
        "XLU",
        "NVDA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-fd31cc177b",
      "title": "债券供给、地方债与久期需求决定利率下行空间",
      "titleEn": "Bond supply, local-government debt, and duration demand define room for rates to fall",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fd31cc177b/",
      "laneId": "lane_6fbf93c613f9",
      "lane": "债券供给/银行久期",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/bond-supply-and-bank-duration/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 54,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "银行净息差 1.40% 监管底线下，L1 银行腿的利率表达本质与可证伪判据检验",
          "summary": "银行净息差 1.40% 监管底线下，L1 银行腿的利率表达本质与可证伪判据检验",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4c06d077d6e8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 — 红利核心与科技制造 Overlay 杠铃策略在多资产组合中的动态比例优化与下行风险对冲",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 — 红利核心与科技制造 Overlay 杠铃策略在多资产组合中的动态比例优化与下行风险对冲",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50eb8ff289dc/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "601398.SH",
        "601939.SH",
        "601288.SH",
        "3988.HK",
        "600900.SH",
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "000001.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-08dd090dc9",
      "title": "公用事业从防御红利切换到电网扩容、容量费与信用再定价",
      "titleEn": "Utilities are shifting from defensive dividends to grid expansion, capacity fees, and credit repricing",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08dd090dc9/",
      "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e",
      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 53,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "压力测试13%火电灵活性仓位：容量电价、辅助服务、煤价传导，还是迁往受监管公用事业/高股息防御？",
          "summary": "压力测试13%火电灵活性仓位：容量电价、辅助服务、煤价传导，还是迁往受监管公用事业/高股息防御？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2cb152fe3cf3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "公用事业研究报告：数据中心转向 BTM 燃气电源后的费率基础防御（2026-07-18）",
          "summary": "公用事业研究报告：数据中心转向 BTM 燃气电源后的费率基础防御（2026-07-18）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b99afaef3af4/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "AEP",
        "600900.SH",
        "CEG",
        "DUK",
        "VST",
        "XLU",
        "META",
        "NEE",
        "SMR",
        "GEV"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-66eb42380e",
      "title": "海洋经济的政策催化需要落到船舶订单、海工装备与海上资源现金流",
      "titleEn": "Marine-economy policy support must convert into ship orders, offshore equipment, and offshore-resource cash flow",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-66eb42380e/",
      "laneId": "lane_f8b4918fe5b3",
      "lane": "海洋经济/船舶海工",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/marine-economy-shipbuilding-and-offshore-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 53,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 海工装备链最终配置：海油工程是底仓，中集是期权，因子门槛买的是第三笔加仓而不是第...",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 海工装备链最终配置：海油工程是底仓，中集是期权，因子门槛买的是第三笔加仓而不是第一笔",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4399f125b481/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "海工装备产业链：中国工业板块里最便宜的一本在手订单",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师：industrials-analyst（工业制造分析师） · 立场：initial 工作日期：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7109192a2dc7/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "601890.SH",
        "600150.SH",
        "600938.SH",
        "600583.SH",
        "603727.SH",
        "000039.SZ",
        "0883.HK",
        "300589.SZ",
        "601919.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a803fa3312",
      "title": "美联储路径仍是全球资产再定价的总阀门",
      "titleEn": "The Fed path remains the master valve for global asset repricing",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a803fa3312/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 46,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "核心PCE路径与小盘股再融资缓解背后的前端利率开关 (2026-07-18)",
          "summary": "核心PCE路径与小盘股再融资缓解背后的前端利率开关 (2026-07-18)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9560dd2eba78/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 全球宏观 前序研究：美债10年期通向5.0%的路径形态——熊陡/期限溢价 vs 通胀恐慌式平...",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 全球宏观 前序研究：美债10年期通向5.0%的路径形态——熊陡/期限溢价 vs 通胀恐慌式平坦化",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f00206cddbd8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "CME",
        "TLT",
        "JPM",
        "KRE",
        "GLD",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-1aaa752ed4",
      "title": "AI 电力与电网瓶颈仍是基础设施主线",
      "titleEn": "AI power and grid bottlenecks remain the infrastructure core",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-1aaa752ed4/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 45,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI数据中心 Time-to-Power 折价曲线 — 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "AI数据中心 Time-to-Power 折价曲线 — 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d6afdb7c1821/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "策略专题报告：交易 AI 电力化与电网瓶颈的估值分化",
          "summary": "作者： 首席策略师 日期： 2026-07-18 立场： 支持 (Support，支持算力约束向物理电力交付迁移及估值分化的投资观点)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8ed2751dfd21/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "VST",
        "CEG",
        "002028.SZ",
        "META",
        "600089.SH",
        "MSFT",
        "601179.SH",
        "AMZN"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-813fa71c15",
      "title": "科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-813fa71c15/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 84,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股两融清算路径与硬科技板块平仓风险压力测试",
          "summary": "分析师：chief-strategist（首席策略师） · 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） · 研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] · 立场： 合成（SYNTHESIZE）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-679d98446c14/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688256.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688008.SH",
        "688041.SH",
        "688012.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a0828c5498",
      "title": "在两融余额突破3.015万亿元且电子板块平均CMR跌至138.55%的背景下，下周一强平盘（约1460亿）释放是否会刺穿市场底？组合应如…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在两融余额突破3.015万亿元且电子板块平均CMR跌至138.55%的背景下，下周一强平盘（约1460亿）释放是否会刺穿市场底？组合应如…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a0828c5498/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 82,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "红利ETF申赎、两融余额与相对成交触发器核验 — 工作日期：2026-07-18",
          "summary": "红利ETF申赎、两融余额与相对成交触发器核验 — 工作日期：2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-12f916077d7c/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "510300.SH",
        "512100.SH",
        "588000.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4f541b33ff",
      "title": "美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f541b33ff/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — USD/JPY触发带与日元carry平仓阈值校准",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 外汇策略师（fx-strategist） 工作日期： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 根主题： 日本JGB与日元carry是否会打断低VIX风险偏好 本报告...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f89a9169c7c4/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4b64fc19f4",
      "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b64fc19f4/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — USD/JPY触发带与日元carry平仓阈值校准",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 外汇策略师（fx-strategist） 工作日期： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 根主题： 日本JGB与日元carry是否会打断低VIX风险偏好 本报告...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f89a9169c7c4/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d03c2555a8",
      "title": "美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d03c2555a8/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股工业主题对冲桶的跨资产执行 — 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师: chief-strategist · 工作日: 2026-07-18 (Asia/Singapore) · 立场: synthesize · 主题: 工业主题腿对冲桶的跨资产执行。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f28cac91f945/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "SLB",
        "OXY"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-58f268edf9",
      "title": "隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-58f268edf9/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 — A股AI硬件与半导体板块的估值分化与两融去杠杆压力",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 — A股AI硬件与半导体板块的估值分化与两融去杠杆压力",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f118a3b8e18c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688256.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688008.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-9a926eda26",
      "title": "本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a926eda26/",
      "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e",
      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "红利ETF申赎、两融余额与相对成交触发器核验 — 工作日期：2026-07-18",
          "summary": "红利ETF申赎、两融余额与相对成交触发器核验 — 工作日期：2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-12f916077d7c/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "600905.SH",
        "DUK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a60b131c8c",
      "title": "面对4.2%的总体CPI与108美元的布伦特原油，新任主席沃什将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上如何调整点阵图与政策立场？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 面对4.2%的总体CPI与108美元的布伦特原油，新任主席沃什将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上如何调整点阵图与政策立场？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a60b131c8c/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "油价/霍尔木兹冲击与7月FOMC加息尾部：通胀型利率尾部能否证伪广度轮动？ — 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "油价/霍尔木兹冲击与7月FOMC加息尾部：通胀型利率尾部能否证伪广度轮动？ — 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3cd7db392b79/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
        "0883.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f0b8d44918",
      "title": "美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f0b8d44918/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "输入型尾部的CNY传导：鹰派FOMC下USD/CNY是逼出还是缓解A股去杠杆，及对冲腿的货币口径",
          "summary": "输入型尾部的CNY传导：鹰派FOMC下USD/CNY是逼出还是缓解A股去杠杆，及对冲腿的货币口径",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a199648eaddd/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-307b7fe2cb",
      "title": "美联储7月两难：Warsh鹰派点阵图 vs 开裂的劳动力市场与消退的伊朗油价冲击",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储7月两难：Warsh鹰派点阵图 vs 开裂的劳动力市场与消退的伊朗油价冲击",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-307b7fe2cb/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "油价→核心通胀的传导阈值与美联储反应函数 — 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "油价→核心通胀的传导阈值与美联储反应函数 — 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-49a6ac96916e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
        "0883.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a3440bf2a4",
      "title": "中东停火信号下的油价风险应如何重定价",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中东停火信号下的油价风险应如何重定价",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a3440bf2a4/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "油价→核心通胀的传导阈值与美联储反应函数 — 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "油价→核心通胀的传导阈值与美联储反应函数 — 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-49a6ac96916e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "SLB",
        "OXY"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-0e8748c14f",
      "title": "科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e8748c14f/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 — A股AI硬件与半导体板块的估值分化与两融去杠杆压力",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 — A股AI硬件与半导体板块的估值分化与两融去杠杆压力",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f118a3b8e18c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688256.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "688012.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b6e4c7b469",
      "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b6e4c7b469/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 AI数据中心电力接入仪表盘：压力测试云巨头签约量与电网现实的裂口",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 AI数据中心电力接入仪表盘：压力测试云巨头签约量与电网现实的裂口",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90e698259d43/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "VST",
        "CEG",
        "002028.SZ",
        "600089.SH",
        "601179.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-0011ad682c",
      "title": "美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0011ad682c/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — USD/JPY触发带与日元carry平仓阈值校准",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 外汇策略师（fx-strategist） 工作日期： 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 根主题： 日本JGB与日元carry是否会打断低VIX风险偏好 本报告...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f89a9169c7c4/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "JPM",
        "TLT",
        "IEF"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4be65dd130",
      "title": "基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4be65dd130/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "核心PCE与核心CPI楔形：可持续去通胀，还是能源假动作？",
          "summary": "既有研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 立场： stress-test（对 既有研究记录的压力测试）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-337eb9ac25c8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
        "0883.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e40b25962e",
      "title": "A股“大行+红利/稀缺成长”哑铃配置在低杠杆与高可视度Backlog支撑下并未拥挤，而弱区域中小银行因资产质量二阶传导滞后与重度稀释风险…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股“大行+红利/稀缺成长”哑铃配置在低杠杆与高可视度Backlog支撑下并未拥挤，而弱区域中小银行因资产质量二阶传导滞后与重度稀释风险…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e40b25962e/",
      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "研究报告：电力链叙事升级、A股红利拥挤度与板块轮动",
          "summary": "研究报告：电力链叙事升级、A股红利拥挤度与板块轮动 分析师： 首席策略师 工作日期： 2026-07-18 立场： 支持，但采用可测算的再分桶框架",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4827ea368ae8/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "601398.SH",
        "601088.SH",
        "600941.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-7930de9cdc",
      "title": "沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7930de9cdc/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "输入型尾部的CNY传导：鹰派FOMC下USD/CNY是逼出还是缓解A股去杠杆，及对冲腿的货币口径",
          "summary": "输入型尾部的CNY传导：鹰派FOMC下USD/CNY是逼出还是缓解A股去杠杆，及对冲腿的货币口径",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a199648eaddd/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-db4939d8d8",
      "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db4939d8d8/",
      "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708",
      "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 AI数据中心电力接入仪表盘：压力测试云巨头签约量与电网现实的裂口",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 AI数据中心电力接入仪表盘：压力测试云巨头签约量与电网现实的裂口",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90e698259d43/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "CEG",
        "VST",
        "ETN"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-91cfb3e0f8",
      "title": "外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-91cfb3e0f8/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 - 2026-07-18 - USD/CNH对冲结构的波动率敏感度与成本压力测试",
          "summary": "前序研究 - 2026-07-18 - USD/CNH对冲结构的波动率敏感度与成本压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cf0c7fd6c1f7/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "KRE",
        "TLT",
        "IEF"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-ace402c8b6",
      "title": "科创板极端护盘对A股整体流动性的虹吸效应与跨板块资产配置调整 研究日期： 2026 05 22 作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Str…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创板极端护盘对A股整体流动性的虹吸效应与跨板块资产配置调整 研究日期： 2026 05 22 作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Str…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ace402c8b6/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 首席策略师 最终跨资产与A股配置定盘",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-18，我对前序逻辑作综合并总体支持：在2026年6月16-17日FOMC之后、2026年7月28-29日FOMC之前，Fed背景仍是偏鹰按兵不动与高实际利率美元 [S1][S3]；USD/CNY仍在研究所6...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-570898a8f240/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "P",
        "TLT",
        "IEF"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-979591277f",
      "title": "能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-979591277f/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "输入型尾部的CNY传导：鹰派FOMC下USD/CNY是逼出还是缓解A股去杠杆，及对冲腿的货币口径",
          "summary": "输入型尾部的CNY传导：鹰派FOMC下USD/CNY是逼出还是缓解A股去杠杆，及对冲腿的货币口径",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a199648eaddd/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-56d9baf47d",
      "title": "2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-56d9baf47d/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "核心PCE与核心CPI楔形：可持续去通胀，还是能源假动作？",
          "summary": "既有研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 立场： stress-test（对 既有研究记录的压力测试）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-337eb9ac25c8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-7a72c14c0e",
      "title": "离岸收紧目前更可能触发局部高拥挤板块去杠杆，而非A股全市场两融踩踏；红利低波守底仓，资源股只做流动性凸性腿。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 离岸收紧目前更可能触发局部高拥挤板块去杠杆，而非A股全市场两融踩踏；红利低波守底仓，资源股只做流动性凸性腿。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a72c14c0e/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "CNH流动性、人民币中间价管理与A股两融压力测试 - 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "CNH流动性、人民币中间价管理与A股两融压力测试 - 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dd83a2c777e2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "9988.HK",
        "0700.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-2a7c29557b",
      "title": "在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2a7c29557b/",
      "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87",
      "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18｜AI基础设施压力测试：capex、GPU集群利用率与电力约束",
          "summary": "2026-07-18｜AI基础设施压力测试：capex、GPU集群利用率与电力约束",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5fd507219068/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "AMD",
        "VRT"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b13c7cf092",
      "title": "高纯石英材料受益于先进封装扩产，但兑现取决于认证与产品结构",
      "titleEn": "High-purity quartz can benefit from advanced-packaging expansion, conditional on qualification and mix",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13c7cf092/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 70,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 亚洲半导体链敏感度：为2026-07-29利用率/ROI冲击构建的\"双时钟\"排序",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 亚洲半导体链敏感度：为2026-07-29利用率/ROI冲击构建的\"双时钟\"排序",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f391baebe2cc/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "NVDA",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS",
        "ASML",
        "688012.SH",
        "002916.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b976d8330e",
      "title": "NAND盈利弹性由价格与产品结构主导，而非单纯出货增长",
      "titleEn": "NAND earnings leverage is driven by pricing and mix rather than shipment growth alone",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b976d8330e/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 70,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 亚洲半导体链敏感度：为2026-07-29利用率/ROI冲击构建的\"双时钟\"排序",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 亚洲半导体链敏感度：为2026-07-29利用率/ROI冲击构建的\"双时钟\"排序",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f391baebe2cc/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "META",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS",
        "TSM",
        "AMD",
        "AVGO"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d614778e40",
      "title": "CAR-T商业化取决于进院、支付与订单转化",
      "titleEn": "CAR-T commercialization depends on hospital access, reimbursement, and order conversion",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d614778e40/",
      "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b",
      "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 68,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股与H股出海创新药企业及Biotech的BD交易估值重构与管线催化剂分析",
          "summary": "A股与H股出海创新药企业及Biotech的BD交易估值重构与管线催化剂分析",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0af3aae52d3d/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "1801.HK",
        "600276.SH",
        "2359.HK",
        "2269.HK",
        "9926.HK",
        "603259.SH",
        "1177.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-9d1baaec59",
      "title": "CAR-T商业化取决于进院、支付覆盖与患者转化",
      "titleEn": "CAR-T commercialization depends on hospital access, reimbursement and patient conversion",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d1baaec59/",
      "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b",
      "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股与H股出海创新药企业及Biotech的BD交易估值重构与管线催化剂分析",
          "summary": "A股与H股出海创新药企业及Biotech的BD交易估值重构与管线催化剂分析",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0af3aae52d3d/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "1801.HK",
        "600276.SH",
        "2359.HK",
        "2269.HK",
        "9926.HK",
        "603259.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-40b8638803",
      "title": "全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-40b8638803/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 — A股AI硬件与半导体板块的估值分化与两融去杠杆压力",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 — A股AI硬件与半导体板块的估值分化与两融去杠杆压力",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f118a3b8e18c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "000660.KS",
        "MU",
        "688012.SH",
        "ASML"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-612f83a611",
      "title": "地缘原油冲击导致的通胀传导（推升核心PCE至4.16%）将促使无前瞻指引的沃什美联储通过在9月和年底连续加息两次（至4.00%–4.25…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘原油冲击导致的通胀传导（推升核心PCE至4.16%）将促使无前瞻指引的沃什美联储通过在9月和年底连续加息两次（至4.00%–4.25…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-612f83a611/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "核心PCE与核心CPI楔形：可持续去通胀，还是能源假动作？",
          "summary": "既有研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 立场： stress-test（对 既有研究记录的压力测试）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-337eb9ac25c8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
        "0883.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b6f59efde4",
      "title": "包装油占比与原料顺价驱动利润率修复",
      "titleEn": "Packaged-oil mix and input-cost pass-through drive margin recovery",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b6f59efde4/",
      "laneId": "lane_13d7ced85300",
      "lane": "食品加工/成本传导",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-processing-and-input-cost-transmission/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 研究记录08：将三/四季度宽松窗口转译为A股风格轮动与食品链配置",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 研究记录08：将三/四季度宽松窗口转译为A股风格轮动与食品链配置",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-07d7d0ab679f/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "001215.SZ",
        "600298.SH",
        "603027.SH",
        "300973.SZ",
        "603317.SH",
        "002852.SZ",
        "002847.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f3989d02c5",
      "title": "全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f3989d02c5/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电力与电网瓶颈已成为 AI 算力的稀缺期权 - 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "电力与电网瓶颈已成为 AI 算力的稀缺期权 - 工作日 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e9f3da9f615/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "META",
        "TSM",
        "AMD",
        "AVGO",
        "ASML"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-bc1d8e9af8",
      "title": "Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bc1d8e9af8/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "核心PCE与核心CPI楔形：可持续去通胀，还是能源假动作？",
          "summary": "既有研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日期：2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore） 立场： stress-test（对 既有研究记录的压力测试）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-337eb9ac25c8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-23a6e00e51",
      "title": "BOJ 正常化超调不是基础概率最高的宏观意外，但它最符合“JPY 升值 + CNH 贬值 + SPX 跌破零 gamma”的三条件 FX…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: BOJ 正常化超调不是基础概率最高的宏观意外，但它最符合“JPY 升值 + CNH 贬值 + SPX 跌破零 gamma”的三条件 FX…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-23a6e00e51/",
      "laneId": "lane_b29e1d216a21",
      "lane": "信用再融资/私募信贷",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/credit-refinancing-and-private-debt/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储政策路径与信用利差对小盘股流动性的非线性冲击",
          "summary": "立场：支持（SUPPORT） —— 研究记录 01 的结论（小盘股仍是风险扩散缺口，而非空头挤压燃料）是正确的。但研究记录 01 所假设的传导机制并不成立，而这一修正让结论变得 更稳固，而非更脆弱。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3796227b4543/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "KRE",
        "JPM",
        "KKR"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-be91bfe6ee",
      "title": "高纯石英材料需求需由先进封装订单验证",
      "titleEn": "High-purity quartz demand requires validation from advanced-packaging orders",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-be91bfe6ee/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 63,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 亚洲半导体链敏感度：为2026-07-29利用率/ROI冲击构建的\"双时钟\"排序",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 亚洲半导体链敏感度：为2026-07-29利用率/ROI冲击构建的\"双时钟\"排序",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f391baebe2cc/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "NVDA",
        "000660.KS",
        "688012.SH",
        "MU",
        "ASML",
        "002916.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f5d7a79c82",
      "title": "HBM4、CoWoS 与背面供电正在成为 AI 服务器需求曲线的串行闸门",
      "titleEn": "HBM4, CoWoS, and backside power are becoming serial gates for the AI-server demand curve",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5d7a79c82/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 62,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2027年HBM与先进封装供给曲线 vs. 台湾/韩国风险溢价 — 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "2027年HBM与先进封装供给曲线 vs. 台湾/韩国风险溢价 — 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-722385f2ad51/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "000660.KS",
        "MU",
        "AMD",
        "META",
        "AVGO",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "ASML"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3986819dc0",
      "title": "A 股半导体的核心风险从订单验证转向 A/H 溢价、两融与负 Gamma",
      "titleEn": "A-share semiconductor risk is shifting from order proof to A/H premium, margin financing, and negative gamma",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3986819dc0/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 61,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股降杠杆阶段性底部后的信用扩张与货币政策稳底盘效能评估报告",
          "summary": "报告日期：2026-07-18 (Asia/Singapore) 分析师：global-macro（全球宏观分析师） 看板索引：03/08 · 研究立场：综合 (Synthesize)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-18a551b14381/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688981.SH",
        "688256.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "600900.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "300308.SZ",
        "002371.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-bef6966fdd",
      "title": "工业机械的出口订单质量和设备更新周期决定制造业 CapEx 弹性",
      "titleEn": "Industrial machinery beta depends on export-order quality and equipment-upgrade capex",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bef6966fdd/",
      "laneId": "lane_6e2dcaab093e",
      "lane": "工业机械/设备更新出海",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/industrial-machinery-equipment-upgrade-and-exports/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 59,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "技改再贷款传导效率与地方财政挤出效应对先进制造CAPEX的影响：压力测试",
          "summary": "技改再贷款传导效率与地方财政挤出效应对先进制造CAPEX的影响：压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-32691141c1bb/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600031.SH",
        "600761.SH",
        "002747.SZ",
        "000425.SZ",
        "603338.SH",
        "603298.SH",
        "000157.SZ",
        "601100.SH",
        "300124.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-44cf9d91f6",
      "title": "中国大健康 Alpha 正从医保压价转向创新药出海、临床确定性与设备刚需",
      "titleEn": "China healthcare alpha is moving from reimbursement pressure to overseas licensing, clinical certainty, and equipment...",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-44cf9d91f6/",
      "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b",
      "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 57,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股与H股出海创新药企业及Biotech的BD交易估值重构与管线催化剂分析",
          "summary": "A股与H股出海创新药企业及Biotech的BD交易估值重构与管线催化剂分析",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0af3aae52d3d/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "2359.HK",
        "600276.SH",
        "1801.HK",
        "2269.HK",
        "9926.HK",
        "6990.HK",
        "300760.SZ",
        "603259.SH",
        "1177.HK",
        "002821.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-603a5f7966",
      "title": "A 股硬科技与科创50的复苏需要订单、融资盘和指数结构共振",
      "titleEn": "A-share hard tech and STAR50 recovery needs orders, margin positioning, and index structure to align",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-603a5f7966/",
      "laneId": "lane_4cc1e74d8e5f",
      "lane": "A股硬科技/科创50",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-hard-tech-and-star50/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 56,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "th T07 三条腿的实证检验 — A股AI硬件篮子 — 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "th T07 三条腿的实证检验 — A股AI硬件篮子 — 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2f3a1a6c2bcd/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "300308.SZ",
        "688256.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "600900.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "300394.SZ",
        "002916.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-42faeae623",
      "title": "CPO、光互联与铜连接决定 AI 集群内部租金迁移",
      "titleEn": "CPO, optical interconnect, and copper links define rent migration inside AI clusters",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-42faeae623/",
      "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956",
      "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 55,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "EML光芯片瓶颈的传导与国内AI算力交付节奏重估",
          "summary": "研究记录 分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst（AI基础设施分析师） 立场： stress-test（压力测试 既有研究记录，半导体分析师） 工作日期：2026-07-18（亚洲/新加坡）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0e03cb93bc80/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "300308.SZ",
        "NVDA",
        "AVGO",
        "META",
        "COHR",
        "LITE",
        "300394.SZ",
        "MRVL",
        "TSM",
        "MSFT"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-7f0a75c5f6",
      "title": "数据中心地产、液冷与水资源正在决定 AI 容量的区域迁移",
      "titleEn": "Data-center real estate, liquid cooling, and water resources are deciding regional migration of AI capacity",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7f0a75c5f6/",
      "laneId": "lane_0679894fe06b",
      "lane": "数据中心地产/液冷",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/data-center-real-estate-and-cooling/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 53,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "研究报告：可交付 AI 算力产能评分框架 (2026-2027)",
          "summary": "研究报告：可交付 AI 算力产能评分框架 (2026-2027) 日期：2026-07-18 分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst 核心关注：超大规模云厂商资本开支、电网并网瓶颈、AI 算力交付风险",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-84737ae30ce8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "VRT",
        "ETN",
        "META",
        "NVDA",
        "GEV",
        "MSFT",
        "DLR",
        "EQIX",
        "SMR"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-ce29facfbd",
      "title": "中国资产定价仍受政策、流动性与风险偏好共同驱动",
      "titleEn": "China asset pricing remains driven by policy, liquidity, and risk appetite",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ce29facfbd/",
      "laneId": "lane_a8d9c69ae883",
      "lane": "中国权益流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-equity-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 52,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "CNH流动性、人民币中间价管理与A股两融压力测试 - 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "CNH流动性、人民币中间价管理与A股两融压力测试 - 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dd83a2c777e2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "300308.SZ",
        "0700.HK",
        "9988.HK",
        "510300.SH",
        "159915.SZ",
        "300750.SZ",
        "3988.HK",
        "588000.SH",
        "LOW"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-485a630a87",
      "title": "自动驾驶与 Robotaxi 主题必须从演示热度进入单位经济和监管城市扩张验证",
      "titleEn": "Autonomous driving and robotaxi themes must move from demo excitement to unit economics and regulated city expansion",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-485a630a87/",
      "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da",
      "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 51,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-18 — 阿里云AI变现与capex/FCF拖累压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-18 — 阿里云AI变现与capex/FCF拖累压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b73180534438/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GOOGL",
        "TSLA",
        "NVDA",
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "BIDU",
        "XPEV",
        "002594.SZ",
        "2015.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-026aa1679b",
      "title": "云厂商自发电正在把 AI 交付风险转移到核电、燃气、电网与公用事业信用",
      "titleEn": "Cloud self-generation is shifting AI delivery risk into nuclear, gas, grid assets, and utility credit",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-026aa1679b/",
      "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708",
      "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 49,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI数据中心 Time-to-Power 折价曲线 — 2026-07-18",
          "summary": "AI数据中心 Time-to-Power 折价曲线 — 2026-07-18",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d6afdb7c1821/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "VST",
        "CEG",
        "GEV",
        "SMR",
        "META",
        "ETN",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "AEP",
        "NVDA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4074d8a3d2",
      "title": "碳价、可再生能源与储能 CapEx 正在重塑电力资产回报",
      "titleEn": "Carbon pricing, renewables, and storage capex are reshaping power-asset returns",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4074d8a3d2/",
      "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80",
      "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 42,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "从可融资储能收入堆栈到组合权重（工作日：2026-07-18）",
          "summary": "截至 2026-07-18（Asia/Singapore），shell 校验返回 2026-07-18；本报告以该日期为权威工作日。 [自测算: 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-18] 我对前两张卡作综合并支持：可投资的稀缺资产不再是...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8c99e8f369d7/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SMR",
        "002028.SZ",
        "GEV",
        "300750.SZ",
        "600900.SH",
        "MSFT",
        "CEG",
        "300274.SZ",
        "META",
        "VST"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "lanes": [
    {
      "id": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "title": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "thesisCount": 12,
      "eventCount": 21,
      "convictionTotal": 943,
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI",
        "9988.HK",
        "0700.HK"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 79
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "title": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "thesisCount": 8,
      "eventCount": 16,
      "convictionTotal": 617,
      "stockTickers": [
        "688256.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "600900.SH",
        "300308.SZ",
        "002371.SZ"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 77
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "title": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "thesisCount": 10,
      "eventCount": 15,
      "convictionTotal": 736,
      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
        "CVX",
        "XOM",
        "COP",
        "2883.HK",
        "CME",
        "600938.SH",
        "600900.SH",
        "0857.HK",
        "601857.SH"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 74
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "title": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "thesisCount": 10,
      "eventCount": 15,
      "convictionTotal": 739,
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP",
        "JPM",
        "KRE",
        "P",
        "CME",
        "GLD"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 74
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "title": "AI 算力半导体",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "thesisCount": 6,
      "eventCount": 13,
      "convictionTotal": 417,
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "NVDA",
        "AMD",
        "MU",
        "AVGO",
        "TSM",
        "000660.KS",
        "MSFT",
        "GOOGL",
        "AMZN",
        "ASML"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 70
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "title": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "thesisCount": 7,
      "eventCount": 13,
      "convictionTotal": 464,
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "NVDA",
        "ASML",
        "688012.SH",
        "000660.KS",
        "MU",
        "002916.SZ",
        "AMD",
        "META",
        "AVGO",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 66
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "title": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "thesisCount": 4,
      "eventCount": 9,
      "convictionTotal": 307,
      "stockTickers": [
        "510300.SH",
        "512100.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "300750.SZ"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 77
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "title": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "thesisCount": 4,
      "eventCount": 7,
      "convictionTotal": 317,
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 79
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "title": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "thesisCount": 3,
      "eventCount": 7,
      "convictionTotal": 220,
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "601398.SH",
        "601088.SH",
        "600941.SH",
        "510880.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "601939.SH"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 73
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_f21fc181388a",
      "title": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/",
      "thesisCount": 3,
      "eventCount": 7,
      "convictionTotal": 213,
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "GOOGL",
        "AMZN",
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "AVGO",
        "AAPL",
        "TSLA"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 71
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_22c1ed929e2e",
      "title": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "thesisCount": 4,
      "eventCount": 7,
      "convictionTotal": 275,
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "600905.SH",
        "DUK",
        "CEG",
        "AEP",
        "600025.SH",
        "1816.HK",
        "NEE",
        "VST",
        "XLU",
        "META",
        "SMR"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 69
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "title": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "thesisCount": 3,
      "eventCount": 6,
      "convictionTotal": 201,
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "VST",
        "CEG",
        "002028.SZ",
        "600089.SH",
        "601179.SH",
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 67
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_c0702fb29e08",
      "title": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/",
      "thesisCount": 2,
      "eventCount": 6,
      "convictionTotal": 133,
      "stockTickers": [
        "XLE",
        "XLU",
        "TLT",
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL",
        "NVDA"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 67
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_b29e1d216a21",
      "title": "信用再融资/私募信贷",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/credit-refinancing-and-private-debt/",
      "thesisCount": 2,
      "eventCount": 5,
      "convictionTotal": 117,
      "stockTickers": [
        "KRE",
        "JPM",
        "KKR",
        "META",
        "BX",
        "ARES",
        "APO"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 59
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_e69b58816f80",
      "title": "能源转型/储能光伏",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/",
      "thesisCount": 2,
      "eventCount": 5,
      "convictionTotal": 106,
      "stockTickers": [
        "300274.SZ",
        "002028.SZ",
        "300750.SZ",
        "002080.SZ",
        "SMR",
        "GEV",
        "600900.SH",
        "MSFT",
        "CEG",
        "META",
        "VST"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 53
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_2d0dcf520f87",
      "title": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/",
      "thesisCount": 2,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "convictionTotal": 135,
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "AMD",
        "VRT",
        "META",
        "MU",
        "MSFT",
        "AVGO",
        "000660.KS",
        "DELL"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 68
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_13710af7e06d",
      "title": "低价模型/AI 软件利润池",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/low-cost-models-and-ai-software-profit-pools/",
      "thesisCount": 1,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "convictionTotal": 72,
      "stockTickers": [
        "BABA",
        "MSFT",
        "BIDU",
        "9988.HK",
        "CRM",
        "0700.HK",
        "NVDA",
        "NOW",
        "9888.HK"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 72
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_74d352e86208",
      "title": "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/edge-ai-and-agent-desktop-cycle/",
      "thesisCount": 1,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "convictionTotal": 68,
      "stockTickers": [
        "MSFT",
        "NVDA",
        "META",
        "AAPL",
        "AMZN",
        "AMD",
        "ARM",
        "QCOM",
        "GOOGL",
        "002475.SZ"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 68
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_1f0136d57956",
      "title": "CPO/光模块/高速互联",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/",
      "thesisCount": 2,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "convictionTotal": 134,
      "stockTickers": [
        "300308.SZ",
        "300394.SZ",
        "300502.SZ",
        "NVDA",
        "AVGO",
        "META",
        "COHR",
        "LITE",
        "MRVL",
        "TSM",
        "MSFT"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 67
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_640d21327d8b",
      "title": "中国大健康/创新药出海",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/",
      "thesisCount": 3,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "convictionTotal": 192,
      "stockTickers": [
        "1801.HK",
        "600276.SH",
        "2359.HK",
        "2269.HK",
        "9926.HK",
        "603259.SH",
        "1177.HK",
        "6990.HK",
        "300760.SZ",
        "002821.SZ"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 64
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_136dd1c3c708",
      "title": "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/",
      "thesisCount": 2,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "convictionTotal": 127,
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "CEG",
        "VST",
        "ETN",
        "SMR",
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "AEP",
        "NVDA"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 64
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_008e3bd9306a",
      "title": "AI 软件效率/生产率",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/ai-software-productivity/",
      "thesisCount": 1,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "convictionTotal": 58,
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL",
        "NVDA",
        "NOW",
        "CRM",
        "ADBE"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 58
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_6e276fa53da1",
      "title": "食品农业/猪周期",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/food-agriculture-and-hog-cycle/",
      "thesisCount": 1,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "convictionTotal": 56,
      "stockTickers": [
        "002714.SZ",
        "001215.SZ",
        "300498.SZ",
        "000876.SZ",
        "CME",
        "600298.SH",
        "ADM",
        "DBA"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 56
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_6fbf93c613f9",
      "title": "债券供给/银行久期",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/bond-supply-and-bank-duration/",
      "thesisCount": 1,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "convictionTotal": 54,
      "stockTickers": [
        "601398.SH",
        "601939.SH",
        "601288.SH",
        "3988.HK",
        "600900.SH",
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "000001.SZ"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 54
    }
  ],
  "stocks": [
    {
      "ticker": "NVDA",
      "name": "NVIDIA",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/NVDA/",
      "thesisCount": 26,
      "eventCount": 51,
      "lanes": [
        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
        "AI 算力半导体",
        "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
        "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选",
        "低价模型/AI 软件利润池"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "META",
      "name": "Meta Platforms",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/META/",
      "thesisCount": 22,
      "eventCount": 44,
      "lanes": [
        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
        "AI 算力半导体",
        "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面",
        "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
        "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "TSM",
      "name": "TSMC",
      "market": "US ADR",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/TSM/",
      "thesisCount": 21,
      "eventCount": 41,
      "lanes": [
        "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
        "AI 算力半导体",
        "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
        "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选",
        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "UUP",
      "name": "Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund",
      "market": "US ETF",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/UUP/",
      "thesisCount": 22,
      "eventCount": 39,
      "lanes": [
        "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
        "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
        "美债利率/美元再定价"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "MSFT",
      "name": "Microsoft",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/MSFT/",
      "thesisCount": 16,
      "eventCount": 32,
      "lanes": [
        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
        "低价模型/AI 软件利润池",
        "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面",
        "AI 算力半导体",
        "先进封装/HBM4 闸门"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "588000.SH",
      "name": "科创50 ETF",
      "market": "A-share ETF",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/588000.SH/",
      "thesisCount": 15,
      "eventCount": 30,
      "lanes": [
        "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
        "A股风险偏好/两融",
        "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
        "A股硬科技/科创50",
        "中国权益流动性"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "MU",
      "name": "Micron",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/MU/",
      "thesisCount": 12,
      "eventCount": 26,
      "lanes": [
        "AI 算力半导体",
        "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
        "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "000660.KS",
      "name": "SK hynix",
      "market": "Korea",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/000660.KS/",
      "thesisCount": 12,
      "eventCount": 26,
      "lanes": [
        "AI 算力半导体",
        "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
        "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "3988.HK",
      "name": "中国银行",
      "market": "HK",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/3988.HK/",
      "thesisCount": 14,
      "eventCount": 24,
      "lanes": [
        "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
        "债券供给/银行久期",
        "中国权益流动性"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "TLT",
      "name": "iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF",
      "market": "US ETF",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/TLT/",
      "thesisCount": 13,
      "eventCount": 23,
      "lanes": [
        "美债利率/美元再定价",
        "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产",
        "债券供给/银行久期"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "AMZN",
      "name": "Amazon",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/AMZN/",
      "thesisCount": 11,
      "eventCount": 23,
      "lanes": [
        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
        "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面",
        "AI 算力半导体",
        "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
        "AI 软件效率/生产率"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "600900.SH",
      "name": "长江电力",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/600900.SH/",
      "thesisCount": 12,
      "eventCount": 22,
      "lanes": [
        "公用事业/电网信用",
        "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
        "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
        "A股硬科技/科创50",
        "债券供给/银行久期"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "688012.SH",
      "name": "中微公司",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/688012.SH/",
      "thesisCount": 12,
      "eventCount": 21,
      "lanes": [
        "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
        "先进封装/HBM4 闸门"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "AMD",
      "name": "AMD",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/AMD/",
      "thesisCount": 10,
      "eventCount": 21,
      "lanes": [
        "AI 算力半导体",
        "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选",
        "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面",
        "先进封装/HBM4 闸门"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "FXI",
      "name": "iShares China Large-Cap ETF",
      "market": "US ETF",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/FXI/",
      "thesisCount": 11,
      "eventCount": 20,
      "lanes": [
        "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "688981.SH",
      "name": "中芯国际",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/688981.SH/",
      "thesisCount": 10,
      "eventCount": 20,
      "lanes": [
        "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
        "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
        "A股硬科技/科创50"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "GOOGL",
      "name": "Alphabet",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/GOOGL/",
      "thesisCount": 8,
      "eventCount": 19,
      "lanes": [
        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
        "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面",
        "AI 算力半导体",
        "AI 软件效率/生产率",
        "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "AVGO",
      "name": "Broadcom",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/AVGO/",
      "thesisCount": 9,
      "eventCount": 18,
      "lanes": [
        "AI 算力半导体",
        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
        "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
        "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选",
        "CPO/光模块/高速互联"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "0883.HK",
      "name": "中国海洋石油",
      "market": "HK",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/0883.HK/",
      "thesisCount": 11,
      "eventCount": 17,
      "lanes": [
        "油气/地缘通胀",
        "海洋经济/船舶海工"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "IEF",
      "name": "iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF",
      "market": "US ETF",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/IEF/",
      "thesisCount": 11,
      "eventCount": 17,
      "lanes": [
        "美债利率/美元再定价",
        "债券供给/银行久期"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "688256.SH",
      "name": "寒武纪",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/688256.SH/",
      "thesisCount": 9,
      "eventCount": 17,
      "lanes": [
        "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
        "A股硬科技/科创50"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "0981.HK",
      "name": "中芯国际",
      "market": "HK",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/0981.HK/",
      "thesisCount": 9,
      "eventCount": 17,
      "lanes": [
        "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
        "A股硬科技/科创50"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "688041.SH",
      "name": "海光信息",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/688041.SH/",
      "thesisCount": 9,
      "eventCount": 17,
      "lanes": [
        "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
        "A股硬科技/科创50"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "688008.SH",
      "name": "澜起科技",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/688008.SH/",
      "thesisCount": 8,
      "eventCount": 15,
      "lanes": [
        "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
        "A股硬科技/科创50"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "CEG",
      "name": "Constellation Energy",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/CEG/",
      "thesisCount": 8,
      "eventCount": 13,
      "lanes": [
        "AI 电力/电网设备",
        "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
        "公用事业/电网信用",
        "能源转型/储能光伏"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "GEV",
      "name": "GE Vernova",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/GEV/",
      "thesisCount": 8,
      "eventCount": 12,
      "lanes": [
        "AI 电力/电网设备",
        "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
        "公用事业/电网信用",
        "数据中心地产/液冷",
        "能源转型/储能光伏"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "VST",
      "name": "Vistra",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/VST/",
      "thesisCount": 7,
      "eventCount": 11,
      "lanes": [
        "AI 电力/电网设备",
        "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
        "公用事业/电网信用",
        "能源转型/储能光伏"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "ASML",
      "name": "ASML",
      "market": "US ADR",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/ASML/",
      "thesisCount": 7,
      "eventCount": 11,
      "lanes": [
        "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
        "AI 算力半导体"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "002028.SZ",
      "name": "思源电气",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/002028.SZ/",
      "thesisCount": 5,
      "eventCount": 11,
      "lanes": [
        "AI 电力/电网设备",
        "能源转型/储能光伏"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "SLB",
      "name": "SLB",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/SLB/",
      "thesisCount": 8,
      "eventCount": 10,
      "lanes": [
        "油气/地缘通胀"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "OXY",
      "name": "Occidental Petroleum",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/OXY/",
      "thesisCount": 8,
      "eventCount": 10,
      "lanes": [
        "油气/地缘通胀"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "510300.SH",
      "name": "沪深300 ETF",
      "market": "A-share ETF",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/510300.SH/",
      "thesisCount": 5,
      "eventCount": 10,
      "lanes": [
        "A股风险偏好/两融",
        "中国权益流动性"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "ETN",
      "name": "Eaton",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/ETN/",
      "thesisCount": 6,
      "eventCount": 9,
      "lanes": [
        "AI 电力/电网设备",
        "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
        "数据中心地产/液冷"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "002916.SZ",
      "name": "深南电路",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/002916.SZ/",
      "thesisCount": 5,
      "eventCount": 9,
      "lanes": [
        "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
        "A股硬科技/科创50"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "300750.SZ",
      "name": "宁德时代",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/300750.SZ/",
      "thesisCount": 4,
      "eventCount": 9,
      "lanes": [
        "A股风险偏好/两融",
        "能源转型/储能光伏",
        "中国权益流动性"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "601398.SH",
      "name": "工商银行",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/601398.SH/",
      "thesisCount": 4,
      "eventCount": 9,
      "lanes": [
        "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
        "债券供给/银行久期"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "JPM",
      "name": "JPMorgan Chase",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/JPM/",
      "thesisCount": 4,
      "eventCount": 8,
      "lanes": [
        "美债利率/美元再定价",
        "信用再融资/私募信贷"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "KRE",
      "name": "SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF",
      "market": "US ETF",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/KRE/",
      "thesisCount": 4,
      "eventCount": 8,
      "lanes": [
        "美债利率/美元再定价",
        "信用再融资/私募信贷"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "XLU",
      "name": "Utilities Select Sector SPDR",
      "market": "US ETF",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/XLU/",
      "thesisCount": 3,
      "eventCount": 8,
      "lanes": [
        "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产",
        "公用事业/电网信用"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "FXY",
      "name": "Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust",
      "market": "US ETF",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/FXY/",
      "thesisCount": 4,
      "eventCount": 7,
      "lanes": [
        "日元套息/EM 科技流动性"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "personas": [],
  "episodes": [
    {
      "id": "reader:reader-daily-reader-2026-07-18",
      "type": "reader",
      "badge": "READER MEMO",
      "color": "blue",
      "date": "2026-07-18",
      "title": "2026-07-18 每日综合：电力稀缺从设备交期升级为成本分配与算力兑现问题",
      "titleEn": "",
      "summary": "今日真正新增的决策变量不是电力链继续高热，而是瓶颈的经济归属和替代路径被拆开：设备商出售稀缺产能槽位，已并网核电与商业电厂出售确定电量，受监管公用事业只能获得受核准回报，而云厂商及居民分别承担合同成本与监管外溢。与此同时，自备电源并未消除 time-to-power，只把等待转移到燃机档期、燃料管道和地方许可；因此算力估值应从名义GPU数量进一步收紧到已通电、可冷却且有合同需求的兆瓦。对半导体的约束判断也更清晰：2026年经营数据尚不支持订单崩塌，GPU仍是主干，自研ASIC和算力租赁是增量分支；但7月29日前后…",
      "href": "/investor/reports/reader-daily-reader-2026-07-18/",
      "chart": null,
      "metrics": [],
      "tags": [
        "reader"
      ],
      "priorityViews": [
        {
          "title": "电力瓶颈的租金归属首次被明确分层",
          "view": "同一AI负荷上行并不平均利好电力链：GEV、ETN等设备商通过订单、定价和产能槽位捕获最直接租金；CEG、VST等已并网电源通过长期协议出售稀缺电量；AEP等受监管公用事业的收益被核准ROE和成本分摊规则封顶；META、MSFT、AMZN主要支付押金、电力合同和自备电源成本。",
          "whyItMatters": "这将“泛电力受益”收紧为现金流质量排序，也解释了为什么设备订单增长、已并网资产和大型负荷费率条款比单纯用电预测更有辨识度。"
        },
        {
          "title": "自备电源只是更换排队入口，先发场址才有真实期权",
          "view": "重型燃机档期已延伸至2029—2030附近，较快的航改型、内燃机和燃料电池也面临产能拥堵；即使获得设备，firm供气、支线管道和地方排放许可仍决定可调度性。自备电源只对已锁设备、EPC、燃料和许可的早期项目缩短工期。",
          "whyItMatters": "GEV等设备供应商可以同时受益于电网扩建和表后供电，但云厂商宣布自发电项目不能直接等同于提前通电；项目价值应按设备档期、燃料合同和许可逐项折价。"
        },
        {
          "title": "半导体尚未被经营数据证伪，但举证责任转向收入与利用率",
          "view": "NVDA数据中心收入、TSM资本开支、云收入与合同需求仍支持AI硬件订单；自研ASIC增长更快，却主要重分配NVDA、AVGO、MRVL、TSM及HBM/封装之间的利润池，而非消灭硬件支出。真正的下行确认是资本开支维持高位时，云增长、backlog转化、利用率或订单同时走弱。",
          "whyItMatters": "这支持对TSM、AVGO、NVDA等进行订单与结构筛选，但不支持仅凭近期压力或高研究热度宣告周期见顶或新主线完成接棒。"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "milestones": [],
  "topicCounts": [
    {
      "id": "macro-rates",
      "labelZh": "宏观、通胀与利率",
      "labelEn": "Macro, inflation and rates",
      "color": "red",
      "keywords": [
        "宏观",
        "通胀",
        "inflation",
        "利率",
        "yield",
        "美联储",
        "fed",
        "cpi",
        "pce",
        "美元"
      ],
      "count": 184
    },
    {
      "id": "power-grid",
      "labelZh": "电力与电网",
      "labelEn": "Power and grid",
      "color": "green",
      "keywords": [
        "电力",
        "电网",
        "power",
        "grid",
        "变压器",
        "并网",
        "ppa",
        "核电",
        "电气设备"
      ],
      "count": 29
    },
    {
      "id": "ai-infrastructure",
      "labelZh": "AI 基础设施",
      "labelEn": "AI infrastructure",
      "color": "blue",
      "keywords": [
        "ai 基础设施",
        "ai infrastructure",
        "算力",
        "gpu",
        "数据中心",
        "data center",
        "nvda",
        "nvidia"
      ],
      "count": 22
    },
    {
      "id": "semis-memory",
      "labelZh": "半导体、存储与光互联",
      "labelEn": "Semis, memory and optical",
      "color": "yellow",
      "keywords": [
        "半导体",
        "hbm",
        "存储",
        "memory",
        "cpo",
        "光模块",
        "先进封装",
        "micron",
        "mu"
      ],
      "count": 20
    },
    {
      "id": "platforms-agents",
      "labelZh": "平台、软件与 Agent",
      "labelEn": "Platforms, software and agents",
      "color": "blue",
      "keywords": [
        "mag7",
        "microsoft",
        "apple",
        "tesla",
        "meta",
        "amazon",
        "google",
        "alphabet",
        "office",
        "windows",
        "agent"
      ],
      "count": 1
    },
    {
      "id": "china-assets",
      "labelZh": "中国资产与市场结构",
      "labelEn": "China assets and market structure",
      "color": "orange",
      "keywords": [
        "a股",
        "港股",
        "科创50",
        "star50",
        "中国资产",
        "msci",
        "两融",
        "人民币"
      ],
      "count": 1
    }
  ],
  "analystCounts": [
    {
      "label": "未识别",
      "count": 256
    },
    {
      "label": "AI Institute Reader Composer",
      "count": 1
    }
  ],
  "categoryCounts": [
    {
      "label": "其他",
      "count": 256
    },
    {
      "label": "读者报告",
      "count": 1
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "contemporaneous": true,
    "note": "This day view is assembled from public, date-stamped AI Institute research contracts."
  }
}