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          "title": "食品加工产业链——被低覆盖的标的设置与跨链外溢风险",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 农业行业分析师 (agri-analyst) · 工作日期：2026-07-15（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：SYNTHESIZE（综合）——我支持机构的 K 型消费判断（th T13）与预制菜国标供应链重塑判断（th p afa...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a6a33e99d87a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "食品加工产业链研究卡 — 2026-07-15",
          "summary": "截至研究院权威工作日 2026-07-15，本报告对既有结论作 综合与压力测试：食品加工产业链确实覆盖不足，但板块 β 逻辑偏弱；更好的研究用法，是把队列聚焦在已验证渠道拐点、冷链合规能力和原料...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-30529868dcbe/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "6月/H1消费数据与政策表述对食品加工仓位触发的再验证",
          "summary": "6月/H1消费数据与政策表述对食品加工仓位触发的再验证 基准工作日：2026-07-15 [S0]",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3ac40825b1b4/",
          "stance": "risk",
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        },
        {
          "title": "食品加工板块仓位触发与风格轮动",
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          "stance": "risk",
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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        "600298.SH",
        "300973.SZ",
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        "603027.SH",
        "002991.SZ",
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        "002847.SZ",
        "ADM"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-5057edfa79",
      "title": "AI-Biology 与医疗效率改善需要从科研突破走向支付和监管兑现",
      "titleEn": "AI biology and healthcare productivity must move from research breakthroughs to reimbursement and regulatory proof",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5057edfa79/",
      "laneId": "lane_2eefe4e126c6",
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          "title": "医疗保健设备产业链：深挖低覆盖中盘股与跨链外溢风险地图",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师 ID: healthcare-analyst · 日期: 2026-07-15（Asia/Singapore） 根主题： 产业链调研：医疗保健设备产业链（30 日激活率：3.4%, 6/174） 相对前序立场： 初始（Initial）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-021b817a3ea8/",
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        },
        {
          "title": "医疗设备产业链拆分：县域医共体敞口与大型影像设备收入确认时滞分析",
          "summary": "研究记录 ｜ ｜ 分析师 ID: healthcare-analyst ｜ 日期：2026-07-15（Asia/Singapore） 相对前序立场： 支持 (Support)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4c5f818b214c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "集采政策对医疗设备确认速度组合的压力测试",
          "summary": "研究记录 ｜ ｜ 分析师 ID：thematic-researcher ｜ 日期：2026-07-15（Asia/Singapore）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-31646ed67693/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "将集采执行闸门并入医疗设备交易手册的最终规则与降档降杠杆协议",
          "summary": "研究记录 ｜ ｜ 分析师 ID：chief-strategist ｜ 日期：2026-07-15（Asia/Singapore）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c4177d8ad109/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
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        "688271.SH",
        "300633.SZ",
        "688212.SH",
        "2359.HK",
        "2269.HK",
        "688617.SH",
        "DHR",
        "SDGR"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d6b2c23ed6",
      "title": "航运与物流成本是油价、关税和供应链再通胀的二阶传导器",
      "titleEn": "Shipping and logistics costs are a second-order transmission channel for oil, tariffs, and supply-chain reflation",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d6b2c23ed6/",
      "laneId": "lane_79a55cd8530e",
      "lane": "航运物流/再通胀传导",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/shipping-logistics-and-reflation-transmission/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 44,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 7,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股高股息/质量袖的行业与个股构成，及两融风险交互",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-08-14（新加坡时区） 分析师： 首席策略师 立场： 综合（synthesize） 根主题： 美国通胀降温、Fed 反应函数与 Treasury 曲线韧性 主题： A股高股息/质量袖的具体行业与个股构成...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-73088d7a2fef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "Active research-project theses",
          "summary": "Active research-project theses Scope : daily-report-editor (editorial — sees all fleet projects) Active : 8 · Recently closed (last 14d) : 5 These ar…",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-02cc9c71847c/",
          "stance": "neutral",
          "stanceLabel": "观察"
        },
        {
          "title": "Active research-project theses",
          "summary": "Active research-project theses Scope : morning-brief-editor (editorial — sees all fleet projects) Active : 8 · Recently closed (last 14d) : 5 These a…",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0b374fcfb632/",
          "stance": "neutral",
          "stanceLabel": "观察"
        },
        {
          "title": "Active research-project theses",
          "summary": "Active research-project theses Scope : daily-report-editor (editorial — sees all fleet projects) Active : 8 · Recently closed (last 14d) : 5 These ar…",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-638c18c5c405/",
          "stance": "neutral",
          "stanceLabel": "观察"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "601919.SH",
        "1919.HK",
        "ZIM",
        "MATX",
        "600026.SH",
        "600018.SH",
        "BOAT"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-ace402c8b6",
      "title": "科创板极端护盘对A股整体流动性的虹吸效应与跨板块资产配置调整 研究日期： 2026 05 22 作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Str…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创板极端护盘对A股整体流动性的虹吸效应与跨板块资产配置调整 研究日期： 2026 05 22 作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Str…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ace402c8b6/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股高股息/质量袖的行业与个股构成，及两融风险交互",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-08-14（新加坡时区） 分析师： 首席策略师 立场： 综合（synthesize） 根主题： 美国通胀降温、Fed 反应函数与 Treasury 曲线韧性 主题： A股高股息/质量袖的具体行业与个股构成...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-73088d7a2fef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 首席策略师研究记录04：人民币有管理贬值下的A股风格和行业权重",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 首席策略师研究记录04：人民币有管理贬值下的A股风格和行业权重",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8d878442024d/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "国产存储产能释放与中游毛利复苏下的A股科技板块估值切换路径与风格轮动配置研究 (2026-07-15)",
          "summary": "国产存储产能释放与中游毛利复苏下的A股科技板块估值切换路径与风格轮动配置研究 (2026-07-15)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-22ebfcc7d56b/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "P",
        "TLT",
        "IEF"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-c71e511c1c",
      "title": "电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c71e511c1c/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 压力测试报告：算力扩张与电力约束博弈下 24% 优质硬件仓位的可行性评估",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 压力测试报告：算力扩张与电力约束博弈下 24% 优质硬件仓位的可行性评估",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-07c3fede4328/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "研究记录 - 国产 HBM 与先进封装约束对国内 AI 算力集群的影响",
          "summary": "研究记录 - 国产 HBM 与先进封装约束对国内 AI 算力集群的影响",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3a4696ae5842/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 压力测试：把 A股/H股先进封装材料订单映射到已送电 AI 节点",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 压力测试：把 A股/H股先进封装材料订单映射到已送电 AI 节点",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-deec21f81949/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "PWR"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-70daf87262",
      "title": "A 股红利与硬科技杠铃仍是政策、利率和风险偏好的组合表达",
      "titleEn": "A-share dividend and hard-tech barbell remains the portfolio expression of policy, rates, and risk appetite",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-70daf87262/",
      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "direction": "strengthening",
      "directionLabel": "强化",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "§1 THESIS",
          "summary": "author: morning-brief-editor as of: 2026-07-15 market window: pre-open market: AH tickers: [601857.SH, 601899.SH, 600900.SH, 601398.SH, 300502.SZ, 00…",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7db5e5787d1d/",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "银行红利可持续性压测：化债久期承接、NIM压缩与中证红利银行权重的轮出",
          "summary": "分析师： 金融行业分析师（financials-analyst）· 银行 / 保险 / 券商 / 金融科技 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 机构工作日： 2026-07-15（Asia/Singapore） 主题： A股银行（中证红利最大...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1384cab28b0d/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "A股“红利做底+硬科技弹性”哑铃组合在极端去杠杆与雪球敲入情景下的组合风险与VaR压力测试报告 (2...",
          "summary": "A股“红利做底+硬科技弹性”哑铃组合在极端去杠杆与雪球敲入情景下的组合风险与VaR压力测试报告 (2026-07-15)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-706115803f24/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "601398.SH",
        "601088.SH",
        "600941.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "601939.SH",
        "510880.SH"
      ]
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    {
      "id": "thesis-100e81e234",
      "title": "AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-100e81e234/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 压力测试——温和电力折价下 A股先进封装与算力材料篮子的拥挤度与盈利预测质量",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 压力测试——温和电力折价下 A股先进封装与算力材料篮子的拥挤度与盈利预测质量",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-21045342eed5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 压力测试：把 A股/H股先进封装材料订单映射到已送电 AI 节点",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 压力测试：把 A股/H股先进封装材料订单映射到已送电 AI 节点",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-deec21f81949/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "研究记录 - 国产 HBM 与先进封装约束对国内 AI 算力集群的影响",
          "summary": "研究记录 - 国产 HBM 与先进封装约束对国内 AI 算力集群的影响",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3a4696ae5842/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3986819dc0",
      "title": "A 股半导体的核心风险从订单验证转向 A/H 溢价、两融与负 Gamma",
      "titleEn": "A-share semiconductor risk is shifting from order proof to A/H premium, margin financing, and negative gamma",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3986819dc0/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 61,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股半导体细分环节中报业绩预告与订单可验证性评估",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 半导体分析师 · 工作日期：2026-07-15（亚洲/新加坡）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ffcf750bf63b/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "A股风格轮动与行业配置权重优化策略报告：传统地产信用出清与AI材料物理瓶颈交汇下的双向抉择",
          "summary": "A股风格轮动与行业配置权重优化策略报告：传统地产信用出清与AI材料物理瓶颈交汇下的双向抉择 报告锚定日期：2026-07-15 [S0] 分析师：首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) 研究记录",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99235ea8808e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 首席策略师研究报告：A股科技硬件与第二层红利哑铃的拥挤度、两融结构和中报验证",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 首席策略师研究报告：A股科技硬件与第二层红利哑铃的拥挤度、两融结构和中报验证",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-38cf997b87b5/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688981.SH",
        "688256.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "600900.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "300308.SZ",
        "002371.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-bef6966fdd",
      "title": "工业机械的出口订单质量和设备更新周期决定制造业 CapEx 弹性",
      "titleEn": "Industrial machinery beta depends on export-order quality and equipment-upgrade capex",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bef6966fdd/",
      "laneId": "lane_6e2dcaab093e",
      "lane": "工业机械/设备更新出海",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/industrial-machinery-equipment-upgrade-and-exports/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 59,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 2,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "钢铁、水泥与电解铝技改 Capex 分化对大规模设备更新政策与绿色信贷增长的宏观传导测算报告",
          "summary": "钢铁、水泥与电解铝技改 Capex 分化对大规模设备更新政策与绿色信贷增长的宏观传导测算报告",
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          "stance": "risk",
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          "title": "投委会午间同步简报（2026-07-15）",
          "summary": "日期锚点：本地 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-15；本文所有“今日 / 昨日 / 上一交易日 / 本周 / 下午”均按该日期解释。 - 输入完整性：已拉取并通读 my recent reports.md 、 my disput...",
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        {
          "title": "二次传导梗阻：PPI再通胀与工业资本开支K型分化",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-07-15 分析师： 工业制造分析师 研究门户研究记录",
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        "603298.SH",
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        "601100.SH",
        "300124.SZ"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-44cf9d91f6",
      "title": "中国大健康 Alpha 正从医保压价转向创新药出海、临床确定性与设备刚需",
      "titleEn": "China healthcare alpha is moving from reimbursement pressure to overseas licensing, clinical certainty, and equipment...",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-44cf9d91f6/",
      "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b",
      "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海",
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          "title": "2026-07-15 因子卡：159992 / 515120 / 516080 有多少是真正的医药alpha，多少只是成长 / 创新药be...",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 因子卡：159992 / 515120 / 516080 有多少是真正的医药alpha，多少只是成长 / 创新药beta",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d914127ba9c3/",
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          "title": "2026-07-15 策略压力测试：688192.SH、创新药ETF替代与科创板事件退出的A股医药覆盖层执行",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 策略压力测试：688192.SH、创新药ETF替代与科创板事件退出的A股医药覆盖层执行",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3cf87668e85d/",
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          "title": "研究记录：创新药目的地腿的承接能力、流动性深度与催化剂日历",
          "summary": "研究记录：创新药目的地腿的承接能力、流动性深度与催化剂日历",
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      "id": "thesis-603a5f7966",
      "title": "A 股硬科技与科创50的复苏需要订单、融资盘和指数结构共振",
      "titleEn": "A-share hard tech and STAR50 recovery needs orders, margin positioning, and index structure to align",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-603a5f7966/",
      "laneId": "lane_4cc1e74d8e5f",
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          "summary": "国产HBM先进封装材料良率瓶颈与TSMC先进制程价格壁垒下的硬科技估值底线重估 研究日期： 2026-07-15 分析师： 半导体分析师 (semiconductors-analyst) 研究线程标识：已归档",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0b2a1e542de3/",
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          "summary": "首席策略师研究记录 05：2026-07-15 将AI资本开支跨资产框架落地为A股风格轮动、行业篮子和失效触发条件",
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          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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          "title": "在FOMC利率冲击与流动性闸门约束下，半导体设备与先进封装能否撑起\"硬科技\"篮子？",
          "summary": "在FOMC利率冲击与流动性闸门约束下，半导体设备与先进封装能否撑起\"硬科技\"篮子？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cdce1b48a5fb/",
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        "688256.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
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        "688008.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "300394.SZ",
        "002916.SZ"
      ]
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    {
      "id": "thesis-9a860a8801",
      "title": "信用再融资压力正在把利率风险转化为资产负债表筛选",
      "titleEn": "Credit refinancing pressure is turning rate risk into balance-sheet selection",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a860a8801/",
      "laneId": "lane_b29e1d216a21",
      "lane": "信用再融资/私募信贷",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 52,
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      "events": [
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          "title": "AI资本开支融资链条的可持续性：利率、信用利差与流动性压测",
          "summary": "既有研究记录 · Global Macro Analyst · Board e19fe5e1 · 工作日期：2026-07-15（Asia/Singapore） 主题： AI资本开支融资链条的可持续性——利率/信用利差/流动性周期对HBM需...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4b6782ef3698/",
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        },
        {
          "title": "AI债务与数据中心私募信贷的固定收益利差阈值：宏观到微观的压力测试",
          "summary": "既有研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师 · Board e19fe5e1 · 工作日期：2026-07-15（Asia/Singapore） 主题： AI债券与数据中心私募信贷的利差阈值——从融资眨眼到HBM订单延后的固定收...",
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          "stance": "risk",
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        {
          "title": "分散化陷阱：AI信用“眨眼”与风险平价去杠杆共振下的全球大类资产再平衡",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 首席策略师 · 工作日期：2026-07-15（Asia/Singapore） 主题： AI信用利差突破与风险平价策略去杠杆共振下的全球大类资产配置再平衡 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） —— 我对“...",
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        "JPM",
        "META",
        "BX",
        "ARES",
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      "id": "thesis-5a0bd732f3",
      "title": "A股杠铃策略应落地为“红利蓝筹压舱 + 硬科技成长进攻 + 轮动仓位调节”的三层结构，两融是成长端驱动力，ETF赎回和限售股解禁是仓位上限。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股杠铃策略应落地为“红利蓝筹压舱 + 硬科技成长进攻 + 轮动仓位调节”的三层结构，两融是成长端驱动力，ETF赎回和限售股解禁是仓位上限。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5a0bd732f3/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
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          "title": "2026-07-15 首席策略师研究报告：A股科技硬件与第二层红利哑铃的拥挤度、两融结构和中报验证",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 首席策略师研究报告：A股科技硬件与第二层红利哑铃的拥挤度、两融结构和中报验证",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-38cf997b87b5/",
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          "title": "A股“红利做底+硬科技弹性”哑铃组合在极端去杠杆与雪球敲入情景下的组合风险与VaR压力测试报告 (2...",
          "summary": "A股“红利做底+硬科技弹性”哑铃组合在极端去杠杆与雪球敲入情景下的组合风险与VaR压力测试报告 (2026-07-15)",
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        "510300.SH",
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      "id": "thesis-0e520ff02a",
      "title": "能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e520ff02a/",
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      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
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      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
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          "title": "美债熊陡与能源再通胀冲击下的大类资产配置：久期、风格与商品敞口的重新定位",
          "summary": "美债熊陡与能源再通胀冲击下的大类资产配置：久期、风格与商品敞口的重新定位",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-09f0db6b6729/",
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        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 全球宏观研究记录03：美元更高更久与油价进口成本冲击下的人民币和中国资产",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 全球宏观研究记录03：美元更高更久与油价进口成本冲击下的人民币和中国资产",
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      "stockTickers": [
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    {
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      "title": "依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-859ab241bf/",
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          "summary": "2026-07-15 压力测试——温和电力折价下 A股先进封装与算力材料篮子的拥挤度与盈利预测质量",
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          "title": "在FOMC利率冲击与流动性闸门约束下，半导体设备与先进封装能否撑起\"硬科技\"篮子？",
          "summary": "在FOMC利率冲击与流动性闸门约束下，半导体设备与先进封装能否撑起\"硬科技\"篮子？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cdce1b48a5fb/",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-4ad776c10c",
      "title": "地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…",
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      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "全球宏观研究记录03：2026-07-15的AI资本开支、通胀、利率与美元流动性",
          "summary": "全球宏观研究记录03：2026-07-15的AI资本开支、通胀、利率与美元流动性 工作日期： 2026-07-15（亚洲/新加坡；系统日期锚 已确认 2026-07-15）[自测算] 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 ( gl...",
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        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-17 - 结构性电力成本底部与更高更久美联储下的多资产配置",
          "summary": "2026-07-17 - 结构性电力成本底部与更高更久美联储下的多资产配置",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9d4fb53d5051/",
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        "SLB",
        "OXY",
        "0883.HK"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-7a2fc614c1",
      "title": "在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a2fc614c1/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 压力测试：电力与电网瓶颈成为 AI 算力材料兑现的物理闸门",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 压力测试：电力与电网瓶颈成为 AI 算力材料兑现的物理闸门 报告锚定日期：2026-07-15 [S0] 分析师：AI Infrastructure Analyst 研究记录 立场：stress-test",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-09d772dd76f0/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 压力测试报告：算力扩张与电力约束博弈下 24% 优质硬件仓位的可行性评估",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 压力测试报告：算力扩张与电力约束博弈下 24% 优质硬件仓位的可行性评估",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-07c3fede4328/",
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        "601179.SH",
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "CEG",
        "VST"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-2a7c29557b",
      "title": "在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2a7c29557b/",
      "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87",
      "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选",
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      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
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        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 前序研究：HBM良率溢价、AI基础设施CAPEX与电力预算压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 前序研究：HBM良率溢价、AI基础设施CAPEX与电力预算压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-79b3d8432ae2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 压力测试：电力与电网瓶颈成为 AI 算力材料兑现的物理闸门",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 压力测试：电力与电网瓶颈成为 AI 算力材料兑现的物理闸门 报告锚定日期：2026-07-15 [S0] 分析师：AI Infrastructure Analyst 研究记录 立场：stress-test",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-09d772dd76f0/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "AMD",
        "VRT"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-ab1fb6a453",
      "title": "DeepSeek 式低价模型正在重塑 AI 定价权与软件利润池",
      "titleEn": "DeepSeek-style low-cost models are reshaping AI pricing power and software profit pools",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ab1fb6a453/",
      "laneId": "lane_13710af7e06d",
      "lane": "低价模型/AI 软件利润池",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/low-cost-models-and-ai-software-profit-pools/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 72,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "新兴技术突破扫描：AI 前沿论文、专利申请、产业化进展",
          "summary": "日期锚点：2026-07-15。 本报告中的“近期”“本周”“上一阶段”均以 shell 日期 2026-07-15 为截止日。结论基于公开论文、官方/监管资料、公司发布与主要媒体资料；未使用未验证传闻。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-671f14389f22/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "专题研究：IBM暴跌是否昭示AI资本开支开始挤压软件预算？",
          "summary": "专题研究：IBM暴跌是否昭示AI资本开支开始挤压软件预算？ 分析日期： 2026-07-15（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师： 主题研究员 ( thematic-researcher ) 立场： 初始 / 基准探索",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-66b5b3681e7b/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "BABA",
        "MSFT",
        "BIDU",
        "9988.HK",
        "CRM",
        "0700.HK",
        "NVDA",
        "NOW",
        "9888.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b13c7cf092",
      "title": "高纯石英材料受益于先进封装扩产，但兑现取决于认证与产品结构",
      "titleEn": "High-purity quartz can benefit from advanced-packaging expansion, conditional on qualification and mix",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13c7cf092/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 70,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "在FOMC利率冲击与流动性闸门约束下，半导体设备与先进封装能否撑起\"硬科技\"篮子？",
          "summary": "在FOMC利率冲击与流动性闸门约束下，半导体设备与先进封装能否撑起\"硬科技\"篮子？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cdce1b48a5fb/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 压力测试：把 A股/H股先进封装材料订单映射到已送电 AI 节点",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 压力测试：把 A股/H股先进封装材料订单映射到已送电 AI 节点",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-deec21f81949/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "NVDA",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS",
        "ASML",
        "688012.SH",
        "002916.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-40b8638803",
      "title": "全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-40b8638803/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 压力测试——温和电力折价下 A股先进封装与算力材料篮子的拥挤度与盈利预测质量",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 压力测试——温和电力折价下 A股先进封装与算力材料篮子的拥挤度与盈利预测质量",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-21045342eed5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "研究记录 - 国产 HBM 与先进封装约束对国内 AI 算力集群的影响",
          "summary": "研究记录 - 国产 HBM 与先进封装约束对国内 AI 算力集群的影响",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3a4696ae5842/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "000660.KS",
        "MU",
        "688012.SH",
        "ASML"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-8bbbcdf5a4",
      "title": "GPU、HBM 与先进封装决定 AI 资本开支供给节奏",
      "titleEn": "GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging shape the AI capex supply cycle",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8bbbcdf5a4/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "国产HBM先进封装材料良率瓶颈与TSMC先进制程价格壁垒下的硬科技估值底线重估",
          "summary": "国产HBM先进封装材料良率瓶颈与TSMC先进制程价格壁垒下的硬科技估值底线重估 研究日期： 2026-07-15 分析师： 半导体分析师 (semiconductors-analyst) 研究线程标识：已归档",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0b2a1e542de3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "研究记录 - 国产 HBM 与先进封装约束对国内 AI 算力集群的影响",
          "summary": "研究记录 - 国产 HBM 与先进封装约束对国内 AI 算力集群的影响",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3a4696ae5842/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "META",
        "AMD",
        "AVGO",
        "MU",
        "MSFT",
        "000660.KS",
        "GOOGL",
        "AMZN"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-c89650af9e",
      "title": "酒店餐饮休闲复苏正在从客流修复转向 RevPAR、翻台率与小盘 Alpha",
      "titleEn": "Leisure, hotels, and restaurants are moving from traffic recovery to RevPAR, table turnover, and small-cap alpha",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c89650af9e/",
      "laneId": "lane_dd5a3eb17672",
      "lane": "酒店餐饮休闲/服务消费",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/hotels-restaurants-leisure-and-services-consumption/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "酒店、餐馆与休闲产业链深度调研报告",
          "summary": "酒店、餐馆与休闲产业链深度调研报告 分析日期：2026-07-15 分析师：消费行业分析师 (consumer-analyst)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-abb3ae67a36b/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "A股消费板块风格切换与估值锚定：探寻“量增价减”周期下的配置天平",
          "summary": "A股消费板块风格切换与估值锚定：探寻“量增价减”周期下的配置天平 报告日期：2026-07-15 分析师：首席策略师 (chief-strategist)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dfd7385e4c86/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "9922.HK",
        "3690.HK",
        "001215.SZ",
        "YUMC",
        "300144.SZ",
        "1179.HK",
        "0780.HK",
        "605108.SH",
        "9658.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4b3b37e207",
      "title": "散户情绪与北向资金背离是 A 股风险偏好的关键温度计",
      "titleEn": "Retail sentiment versus northbound flow divergence is the key A-share risk thermometer",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b3b37e207/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 62,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "§1 THESIS",
          "summary": "author: morning-brief-editor as of: 2026-07-15 market window: pre-open market: AH tickers: [601857.SH, 601899.SH, 600900.SH, 601398.SH, 300502.SZ, 00…",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7db5e5787d1d/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "拥挤、两融破3万亿后的risk-on盘面下，建材底部配置的市场结构择时门槛 — 2026-07-15",
          "summary": "拥挤、两融破3万亿后的risk-on盘面下，建材底部配置的市场结构择时门槛 — 2026-07-15",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4b600109959d/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "588000.SH",
        "300308.SZ",
        "300750.SZ",
        "600519.SH",
        "159915.SZ",
        "510300.SH",
        "688256.SH",
        "600900.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-89c14497ac",
      "title": "期权伽马、ETF 与尾盘流动性正在放大主题交易的微观结构风险",
      "titleEn": "Options gamma, ETFs, and closing liquidity are amplifying microstructure risk in theme trades",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-89c14497ac/",
      "laneId": "lane_2ba2ee6db1ee",
      "lane": "期权伽马/市场微观结构",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/options-gamma-and-market-microstructure/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 62,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "隐含波动率飙升与券源稀缺下的场外期权对冲优化：002353 零成本领口期权条款设计与 Delta 动态对冲...",
          "summary": "隐含波动率飙升与券源稀缺下的场外期权对冲优化：002353 零成本领口期权条款设计与 Delta 动态对冲细节",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3561eb106a98/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "周末情绪复盘与周一议题扫描",
          "summary": "日期锚点： 系统日期锚 = 2026-07-18。本文所有“本周 / 上一交易日 / 周一”均按 2026-07-18 结算；美国市场的上一交易日为 2026-07-17。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5ed5cd78338c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "CBOE",
        "CME",
        "HOOD",
        "IBKR",
        "VIRT",
        "VIXY"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-075017003b",
      "title": "AI 资本开支通过能源、设备和利率进入通胀定价",
      "titleEn": "AI capex enters inflation pricing through energy, equipment, and rates",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-075017003b/",
      "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08",
      "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "stable",
      "directionLabel": "稳定",
      "conviction": 55,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI资本开支融资链条的可持续性：利率、信用利差与流动性压测",
          "summary": "既有研究记录 · Global Macro Analyst · Board e19fe5e1 · 工作日期：2026-07-15（Asia/Singapore） 主题： AI资本开支融资链条的可持续性——利率/信用利差/流动性周期对HBM需...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4b6782ef3698/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "全球宏观研究记录03：2026-07-15的AI资本开支、通胀、利率与美元流动性",
          "summary": "全球宏观研究记录03：2026-07-15的AI资本开支、通胀、利率与美元流动性 工作日期： 2026-07-15（亚洲/新加坡；系统日期锚 已确认 2026-07-15）[自测算] 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 ( gl...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-57744ae7de6d/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL",
        "XLE",
        "TLT",
        "XLU",
        "NVDA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-7f0a75c5f6",
      "title": "数据中心地产、液冷与水资源正在决定 AI 容量的区域迁移",
      "titleEn": "Data-center real estate, liquid cooling, and water resources are deciding regional migration of AI capacity",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7f0a75c5f6/",
      "laneId": "lane_0679894fe06b",
      "lane": "数据中心地产/液冷",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/data-center-real-estate-and-cooling/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 53,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI债务与数据中心私募信贷的固定收益利差阈值：宏观到微观的压力测试",
          "summary": "既有研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师 · Board e19fe5e1 · 工作日期：2026-07-15（Asia/Singapore） 主题： AI债券与数据中心私募信贷的利差阈值——从融资眨眼到HBM订单延后的固定收...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-64bf0ee146ca/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 综合合成：AI材料的工业闭环——理顺上游化学/冶金瓶颈与下游电网约束",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 综合合成：AI材料的工业闭环——理顺上游化学/冶金瓶颈与下游电网约束",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-003f088e17aa/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "VRT",
        "ETN",
        "META",
        "NVDA",
        "GEV",
        "MSFT",
        "DLR",
        "EQIX",
        "SMR"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-485a630a87",
      "title": "自动驾驶与 Robotaxi 主题必须从演示热度进入单位经济和监管城市扩张验证",
      "titleEn": "Autonomous driving and robotaxi themes must move from demo excitement to unit economics and regulated city expansion",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-485a630a87/",
      "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da",
      "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 51,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "新能源汽车与智能网联汽车产业链——被低覆盖的标的与跨链外溢风险",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师：industrials-analyst（工业制造分析师）· 工作日期：2026-07-15（亚洲/新加坡）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1901326d9645/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "盘前情绪扫描：2026-07-24",
          "summary": "日期锚点：shell 返回 2026-07-24；窗口为截至该日盘前的最近 24 小时。 - 主看：美股指数与波动率、主动经理/散户情绪、共同基金流、油价-利率联动、AI capex 与 crypto ETF 流。 - 来源：AP、...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e5e0c8fc910c/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GOOGL",
        "TSLA",
        "NVDA",
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "BIDU",
        "XPEV",
        "002594.SZ",
        "2015.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a803fa3312",
      "title": "美联储路径仍是全球资产再定价的总阀门",
      "titleEn": "The Fed path remains the master valve for global asset repricing",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a803fa3312/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 46,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "全球宏观研究记录03：2026-07-15的AI资本开支、通胀、利率与美元流动性",
          "summary": "全球宏观研究记录03：2026-07-15的AI资本开支、通胀、利率与美元流动性 工作日期： 2026-07-15（亚洲/新加坡；系统日期锚 已确认 2026-07-15）[自测算] 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 ( gl...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-57744ae7de6d/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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        {
          "title": "美债熊陡与能源再通胀冲击下的大类资产配置：久期、风格与商品敞口的重新定位",
          "summary": "美债熊陡与能源再通胀冲击下的大类资产配置：久期、风格与商品敞口的重新定位",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-09f0db6b6729/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-59f298ff36",
      "title": "在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-59f298ff36/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 84,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
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      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
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          "title": "2026-07-15 首席策略师研究报告：A股科技硬件与第二层红利哑铃的拥挤度、两融结构和中报验证",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 首席策略师研究报告：A股科技硬件与第二层红利哑铃的拥挤度、两融结构和中报验证",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-38cf997b87b5/",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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        "588000.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "688012.SH"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-813fa71c15",
      "title": "科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-813fa71c15/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 84,
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      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "国产存储产能释放与中游毛利复苏下的A股科技板块估值切换路径与风格轮动配置研究 (2026-07-15)",
          "summary": "国产存储产能释放与中游毛利复苏下的A股科技板块估值切换路径与风格轮动配置研究 (2026-07-15)",
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        "588000.SH",
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        "688008.SH",
        "688041.SH",
        "688012.SH"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-a0828c5498",
      "title": "在两融余额突破3.015万亿元且电子板块平均CMR跌至138.55%的背景下，下周一强平盘（约1460亿）释放是否会刺穿市场底？组合应如…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在两融余额突破3.015万亿元且电子板块平均CMR跌至138.55%的背景下，下周一强平盘（约1460亿）释放是否会刺穿市场底？组合应如…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a0828c5498/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 82,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "两融去杠杆与消费红利切换：资金承接力核验",
          "summary": "两融去杠杆与消费红利切换：资金承接力核验 报告日期：2026-07-15 分析师：首席策略师 (chief-strategist) 立场：支持，但附加资金面约束",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99b56d1f57a4/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
        "510300.SH",
        "512100.SH",
        "588000.SH"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-f5f184ba4e",
      "title": "在美联储偏鹰暂停、美债收益率攀升至4.66%的背景下，国内电子行业两融余额高悬至5722.82亿元是否面临负Gamma清算压力？如何重构…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在美联储偏鹰暂停、美债收益率攀升至4.66%的背景下，国内电子行业两融余额高悬至5722.82亿元是否面临负Gamma清算压力？如何重构…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5f184ba4e/",
      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 首席策略师研究报告：A股科技硬件与第二层红利哑铃的拥挤度、两融结构和中报验证",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 首席策略师研究报告：A股科技硬件与第二层红利哑铃的拥挤度、两融结构和中报验证",
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      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
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        "601088.SH",
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      "id": "thesis-e4e956cd41",
      "title": "通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e4e956cd41/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
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      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "重估 USD/JPY/CHF 对冲套袖权重与风险平价触发边界 — 2026-07-15",
          "summary": "重估 USD/JPY/CHF 对冲套袖权重与风险平价触发边界 — 2026-07-15",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b4488b1b07dc/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-9a926eda26",
      "title": "本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…",
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      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 首席策略师研究报告：A股科技硬件与第二层红利哑铃的拥挤度、两融结构和中报验证",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 首席策略师研究报告：A股科技硬件与第二层红利哑铃的拥挤度、两融结构和中报验证",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-38cf997b87b5/",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "600905.SH",
        "DUK"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-86be10e7fb",
      "title": "为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-86be10e7fb/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
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      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 全球宏观研究记录03：美元更高更久与油价进口成本冲击下的人民币和中国资产",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 全球宏观研究记录03：美元更高更久与油价进口成本冲击下的人民币和中国资产",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dff6b262938b/",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "CVX",
        "XOM"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-e58a9e8746",
      "title": "日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e58a9e8746/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "重估 USD/JPY/CHF 对冲套袖权重与风险平价触发边界 — 2026-07-15",
          "summary": "重估 USD/JPY/CHF 对冲套袖权重与风险平价触发边界 — 2026-07-15",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b4488b1b07dc/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-a13f19ec2d",
      "title": "红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。",
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      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
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      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
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        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 首席策略师研究报告：A股科技硬件与第二层红利哑铃的拥挤度、两融结构和中报验证",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 首席策略师研究报告：A股科技硬件与第二层红利哑铃的拥挤度、两融结构和中报验证",
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        "510880.SH",
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      "id": "thesis-d74ae315e8",
      "title": "当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…",
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      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "重估 USD/JPY/CHF 对冲套袖权重与风险平价触发边界 — 2026-07-15",
          "summary": "重估 USD/JPY/CHF 对冲套袖权重与风险平价触发边界 — 2026-07-15",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b4488b1b07dc/",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-0011ad682c",
      "title": "美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0011ad682c/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
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      "stockTickers": [
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      "id": "thesis-69025fa4b4",
      "title": "驱动对冲阶梯的 Fed / BoJ / ECB 政策路径",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 驱动对冲阶梯的 Fed / BoJ / ECB 政策路径",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-69025fa4b4/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
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        {
          "title": "重估 USD/JPY/CHF 对冲套袖权重与风险平价触发边界 — 2026-07-15",
          "summary": "重估 USD/JPY/CHF 对冲套袖权重与风险平价触发边界 — 2026-07-15",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b4488b1b07dc/",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-29b1c0d6c7",
      "title": "日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "重估 USD/JPY/CHF 对冲套袖权重与风险平价触发边界 — 2026-07-15",
          "summary": "重估 USD/JPY/CHF 对冲套袖权重与风险平价触发边界 — 2026-07-15",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b4488b1b07dc/",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-6ae5e48f60",
      "title": "折算率冲击目前更像高估值拥挤交易的局部去杠杆，而非已经形成全市场融资平仓链条。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 折算率冲击目前更像高估值拥挤交易的局部去杠杆，而非已经形成全市场融资平仓链条。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6ae5e48f60/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "两融红线监测与A股风格再平衡：去杠杆是否已转为轮动？",
          "summary": "两融红线监测与A股风格再平衡：去杠杆是否已转为轮动？ 报告日期：2026-07-15 分析师：首席策略师 (chief-strategist) 立场：支持（延续既有研究记录）——但抬高“轮动确认”门槛",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ac2b4ed51542/",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-08b70be7bf",
      "title": "在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08b70be7bf/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
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      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 压力测试：电力与电网瓶颈成为 AI 算力材料兑现的物理闸门",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 压力测试：电力与电网瓶颈成为 AI 算力材料兑现的物理闸门 报告锚定日期：2026-07-15 [S0] 分析师：AI Infrastructure Analyst 研究记录 立场：stress-test",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-594ba5e705",
      "title": "在中美利差走阔且输入型AI信用冲击升级的情形下，USD/CNY能否守住6.85缓冲翻转线",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在中美利差走阔且输入型AI信用冲击升级的情形下，USD/CNY能否守住6.85缓冲翻转线",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-594ba5e705/",
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      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
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      "supports": 0,
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      "events": [
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          "title": "汇率防线并非约束：压测PBOC宽松空间、化债承载力与A股红利估值底盘",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师 · 日期：2026-07-15（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场：压力测试（STRESS-TEST）",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-c951442d7f",
      "title": "日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c951442d7f/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
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      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "重估 USD/JPY/CHF 对冲套袖权重与风险平价触发边界 — 2026-07-15",
          "summary": "重估 USD/JPY/CHF 对冲套袖权重与风险平价触发边界 — 2026-07-15",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b4488b1b07dc/",
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      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-97f10202a2",
      "title": "中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-97f10202a2/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
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          "summary": "2026-07-15 全球宏观研究记录03：美元更高更久与油价进口成本冲击下的人民币和中国资产",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dff6b262938b/",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-91cfb3e0f8",
      "title": "外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-91cfb3e0f8/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
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        {
          "title": "穿透城商行LGFV与地产敞口：信用压力是否触及资本红线并强制下调分红？",
          "summary": "报告日期：2026年7月15日 分析师：信用分析师（信用评级、违约预警、LGFV债、地产债） 立场：压力测试（STRESS-TEST）——穿透资产负债表，检验信用违约压力是否将分红逼至零 Board 5fabc38b-4e...",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-e12bcc0d59",
      "title": "PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e12bcc0d59/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
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          "title": "2026-07-15 首席策略师研究报告：A股科技硬件与第二层红利哑铃的拥挤度、两融结构和中报验证",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 首席策略师研究报告：A股科技硬件与第二层红利哑铃的拥挤度、两融结构和中报验证",
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      "id": "thesis-d98ced0974",
      "title": "电力瓶颈会重排AI算力项目顺序，但不会让2025-2026年全球AI集群建设同步停摆。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力瓶颈会重排AI算力项目顺序，但不会让2025-2026年全球AI集群建设同步停摆。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d98ced0974/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 压力测试：电力与电网瓶颈成为 AI 算力材料兑现的物理闸门",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 压力测试：电力与电网瓶颈成为 AI 算力材料兑现的物理闸门 报告锚定日期：2026-07-15 [S0] 分析师：AI Infrastructure Analyst 研究记录 立场：stress-test",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-09d772dd76f0/",
          "stance": "risk",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-a7f43e67af",
      "title": "在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a7f43e67af/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "全球宏观研究：6月CPI缓释幻觉与7月能源再通胀的现实",
          "summary": "日期： 2026-07-15 分析师： Global Macro Analyst (agy) 状态： 初始立场（支持 / Support）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-341f7ba8d3d1/",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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      "title": "2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-56d9baf47d/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
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      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "全球宏观研究记录03：2026-07-15的AI资本开支、通胀、利率与美元流动性",
          "summary": "全球宏观研究记录03：2026-07-15的AI资本开支、通胀、利率与美元流动性 工作日期： 2026-07-15（亚洲/新加坡；系统日期锚 已确认 2026-07-15）[自测算] 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 ( gl...",
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      "id": "thesis-9cd2a72630",
      "title": "在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9cd2a72630/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
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      "conviction": 77,
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          "summary": "2026-07-15 全球宏观研究记录03：美元更高更久与油价进口成本冲击下的人民币和中国资产",
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      "title": "端侧 AI 与 Agent 桌面正在把算力竞争从云端扩展到芯片、OS 与消费电子供应链",
      "titleEn": "Edge AI and agent desktops are extending compute competition from cloud to chips, OS, and consumer-electronics supply...",
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      "laneId": "lane_74d352e86208",
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          "title": "新华财经-手机产业链：被低覆盖标的与\"存储外溢\"主线",
          "summary": "研究记录 · research discussion [source-id-redacted] · 分析师：TMT（tmt-analyst）· 工作日期：2026-07-15（Asia/Singapore）",
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      "title": "CAR-T商业化取决于进院、支付与订单转化",
      "titleEn": "CAR-T commercialization depends on hospital access, reimbursement, and order conversion",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d614778e40/",
      "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b",
      "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海",
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          "title": "研究记录：创新药目的地腿的承接能力、流动性深度与催化剂日历",
          "summary": "研究记录：创新药目的地腿的承接能力、流动性深度与催化剂日历",
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      "title": "加密资产仍是全球流动性和散户风险偏好的高频回声",
      "titleEn": "Crypto remains a high-frequency echo of global liquidity and retail risk appetite",
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      "events": [
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          "title": "盘中主题流向扫描：2026-07-15",
          "summary": "日期锚点： 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-15。本文所有“今日 / 昨日 / 上一交易日”均按此日期解析。 - 工作区状态：未发现上游早盘叙事文件；本轮使用公开盘中/收盘报道与 ETF/报价快照重构早...",
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        {
          "title": "研究记录：创新药目的地腿的承接能力、流动性深度与催化剂日历",
          "summary": "研究记录：创新药目的地腿的承接能力、流动性深度与催化剂日历",
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        "600276.SH",
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        "2269.HK",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-31f32af77b",
      "title": "中国云与国产算力栈的关键不是模型热度，而是训练/推理订单、服务器交付和生态锁定",
      "titleEn": "China cloud and local compute stacks depend less on model hype than training/inference orders, server delivery, and e...",
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      "events": [
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          "title": "全球对冲套袖框架下 A 股高 beta/科技仓位的防守与两融边界 — 2026-07-15",
          "summary": "全球对冲套袖框架下 A 股高 beta/科技仓位的防守与两融边界 — 2026-07-15",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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        "688256.SH",
        "688041.SH",
        "300308.SZ",
        "601138.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688981.SH",
        "000977.SZ",
        "9988.HK",
        "NVDA",
        "0700.HK"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-df608ec2a1",
      "title": "AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-df608ec2a1/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI硬件Beta减仓是否损害核心算力/电力资产的相关性对冲有效性？ — 2026-07-15",
          "summary": "AI硬件Beta减仓是否损害核心算力/电力资产的相关性对冲有效性？ — 2026-07-15",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3fc9e4cc2a50/",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "GEV",
        "600089.SH",
        "ETN",
        "601179.SH",
        "688676.SH",
        "VST"
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      "id": "thesis-c2eb2a0b9d",
      "title": "AI 租赁营收的兑现并非取决于芯片购买量，而是取决于长达 2-4 年的电力交付周期，物理稀缺性正成为限制营收增速的硬顶。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI 租赁营收的兑现并非取决于芯片购买量，而是取决于长达 2-4 年的电力交付周期，物理稀缺性正成为限制营收增速的硬顶。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c2eb2a0b9d/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
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      "conviction": 66,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 压力测试：电力与电网瓶颈成为 AI 算力材料兑现的物理闸门",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 压力测试：电力与电网瓶颈成为 AI 算力材料兑现的物理闸门 报告锚定日期：2026-07-15 [S0] 分析师：AI Infrastructure Analyst 研究记录 立场：stress-test",
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        "600089.SH",
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      "id": "thesis-a119a01ce4",
      "title": "评估AI算力能耗增长对电力与电网瓶颈的影响，以及能源成本压力如何传导至下游CXO产业链。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 评估AI算力能耗增长对电力与电网瓶颈的影响，以及能源成本压力如何传导至下游CXO产业链。",
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      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 压力测试：电力与电网瓶颈成为 AI 算力材料兑现的物理闸门",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 压力测试：电力与电网瓶颈成为 AI 算力材料兑现的物理闸门 报告锚定日期：2026-07-15 [S0] 分析师：AI Infrastructure Analyst 研究记录 立场：stress-test",
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        "VST",
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        "CEG",
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        "600089.SH"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-b37a11e5a3",
      "title": "FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。",
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          "summary": "研究记录 - 国产 HBM 与先进封装约束对国内 AI 算力集群的影响",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3a4696ae5842/",
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      "id": "thesis-b6f59efde4",
      "title": "包装油占比与原料顺价驱动利润率修复",
      "titleEn": "Packaged-oil mix and input-cost pass-through drive margin recovery",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b6f59efde4/",
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "食品加工产业链研究卡 — 2026-07-15",
          "summary": "截至研究院权威工作日 2026-07-15，本报告对既有结论作 综合与压力测试：食品加工产业链确实覆盖不足，但板块 β 逻辑偏弱；更好的研究用法，是把队列聚焦在已验证渠道拐点、冷链合规能力和原料...",
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        "600298.SH",
        "603027.SH",
        "300973.SZ",
        "603317.SH",
        "002852.SZ",
        "002847.SZ"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-f3989d02c5",
      "title": "全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。",
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          "summary": "2026-07-15 压力测试报告：算力扩张与电力约束博弈下 24% 优质硬件仓位的可行性评估",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-07c3fede4328/",
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        "TSM",
        "AMD",
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      "title": "Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bc1d8e9af8/",
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      "events": [
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          "title": "美债熊陡与能源再通胀冲击下的大类资产配置：久期、风格与商品敞口的重新定位",
          "summary": "美债熊陡与能源再通胀冲击下的大类资产配置：久期、风格与商品敞口的重新定位",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-09f0db6b6729/",
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        "UUP"
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      "titleEn": "The smart-driving supplier inflection depends on program conversion and margin recovery",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cb5657bb3/",
      "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da",
      "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济",
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      "events": [
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          "title": "新能源汽车与智能网联汽车产业链——被低覆盖的标的与跨链外溢风险",
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          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1901326d9645/",
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        "NVDA",
        "GOOGL",
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      "title": "2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4e383ee09c/",
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      "conviction": 65,
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      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-15 前序研究：HBM良率溢价、AI基础设施CAPEX与电力预算压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-07-15 前序研究：HBM良率溢价、AI基础设施CAPEX与电力预算压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-79b3d8432ae2/",
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        "TSM",
        "MU",
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      "id": "thesis-23a6e00e51",
      "title": "BOJ 正常化超调不是基础概率最高的宏观意外，但它最符合“JPY 升值 + CNH 贬值 + SPX 跌破零 gamma”的三条件 FX…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: BOJ 正常化超调不是基础概率最高的宏观意外，但它最符合“JPY 升值 + CNH 贬值 + SPX 跌破零 gamma”的三条件 FX…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-23a6e00e51/",
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      "direction": "conflicting",
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      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 1,
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      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储 Warsh 反应函数与去杠杆发作期的状态条件化哑铃配置压测",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师 · 工作日期：2026-07-15（Asia/Singapore）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-61ba8feb1846/",
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "JPM",
        "KKR"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-be91bfe6ee",
      "title": "高纯石英材料需求需由先进封装订单验证",
      "titleEn": "High-purity quartz demand requires validation from advanced-packaging orders",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-be91bfe6ee/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
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      "conviction": 63,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "在FOMC利率冲击与流动性闸门约束下，半导体设备与先进封装能否撑起\"硬科技\"篮子？",
          "summary": "在FOMC利率冲击与流动性闸门约束下，半导体设备与先进封装能否撑起\"硬科技\"篮子？",
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        "688012.SH",
        "MU",
        "ASML",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-f5d7a79c82",
      "title": "HBM4、CoWoS 与背面供电正在成为 AI 服务器需求曲线的串行闸门",
      "titleEn": "HBM4, CoWoS, and backside power are becoming serial gates for the AI-server demand curve",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5d7a79c82/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
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      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 62,
      "supports": 0,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "国产HBM先进封装材料良率瓶颈与TSMC先进制程价格壁垒下的硬科技估值底线重估",
          "summary": "国产HBM先进封装材料良率瓶颈与TSMC先进制程价格壁垒下的硬科技估值底线重估 研究日期： 2026-07-15 分析师： 半导体分析师 (semiconductors-analyst) 研究线程标识：已归档",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "TSM",
        "000660.KS",
        "MU",
        "AMD",
        "META",
        "AVGO",
        "MSFT",
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        "ASML"
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    },
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      "title": "地产、土地财政与 REITs 是中国信用底的慢变量",
      "titleEn": "Property, land finance, and REITs are the slow variables behind China's credit floor",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-741d1d6f34/",
      "laneId": "lane_5c8ea9f78210",
      "lane": "地产信用底/REITs",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-property-credit-floor-and-reits/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 61,
      "supports": 1,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
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      "date": "2026-07-15",
      "title": "2026-07-15 | 7月15日：降息预期缓冲贴现率，国内需求与交付闸门收窄受益面",
      "titleEn": "",
      "summary": "7月15日的决策张力是：美国6月CPI降温暂时缓解长久期资产的贴现率压力，但中国天然气消费、制造业投资和设备毛利数据均不支持广义需求复苏；与此同时，AIDC监管日历把电力链进一步拆成2026—2027年可确认收入的表后模块化设备与2028—2031年才可能形成确定性兆瓦的重型燃机、公用事业项目。半导体资金可从存储转向订单可验证的设备和材料，但电子持仓拥挤与高估值意味着这只是链内精选，不是科技风险解除。",
      "href": "/investor/reports/reader-daily-reader-2026-07-15/",
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      "metrics": [],
      "tags": [
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      "priorityViews": [
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          "title": "美国通胀降温缓冲油价冲击，但尚未改写国内需求约束",
          "view": "7月15日过夜报告称美国6月CPI环比下降、美元与美债收益率回落，较前一日“油价—实际利率压迫长久期资产”的尾部情形有所缓和。但中国1—5月天然气表观消费同比下降2.7%，制造业投资下降0.4%，PPI上行更多体现上游利润再分配而非终端需求扩张。",
          "whyItMatters": "这降低了短期全面压缩成长估值的概率，却不足以支持中国顺周期或广义工业机械β；利率缓和与盈利扩散仍是两件事。"
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          "view": "当天监管压力测试显示，表后或离网模块化燃气设备可在约12—24个月完成许可，收入窗口集中在2026—2027年；PJM共址、公用事业专用电厂还受费率、并网和州级审批约束，确定性运行兆瓦及重型OEM收入更偏2028—2031年。",
          "whyItMatters": "同属AI电力主题的设备订单、可用电力和公用事业回报不能使用同一估值时钟；GEV、AEP及云厂商的项目价值更依赖具体清关节点，CEG、VST仍以在运核电和近端PPA最具确定性。"
        },
        {
          "title": "存储流出可以转向工具链，但不是科技去杠杆结束",
          "view": "同日半导体报告把承接顺序收窄至低渗透材料、长订单平台设备，再到高弹性测试和刻蚀；订单能见度支持688012.SH、002371.SZ和688072.SH的基本面，但板块估值、公募电子超配和杠杆均已亮黄灯。",
          "whyItMatters": "A股硬科技的有效表达由存储价格β转向订单和国产化验证，同时仍须防范拥挤从存储搬到设备；篮子式追逐会重新触发负Gamma与流动性风险。"
        }
      ]
    }
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        "inflation",
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        "pce",
        "美元"
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      "count": 211
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      "id": "semis-memory",
      "labelZh": "半导体、存储与光互联",
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      "labelEn": "Power and grid",
      "color": "green",
      "keywords": [
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        "电网",
        "power",
        "grid",
        "变压器",
        "并网",
        "ppa",
        "核电",
        "电气设备"
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      "count": 15
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    {
      "id": "china-assets",
      "labelZh": "中国资产与市场结构",
      "labelEn": "China assets and market structure",
      "color": "orange",
      "keywords": [
        "a股",
        "港股",
        "科创50",
        "star50",
        "中国资产",
        "msci",
        "两融",
        "人民币"
      ],
      "count": 13
    },
    {
      "id": "ai-infrastructure",
      "labelZh": "AI 基础设施",
      "labelEn": "AI infrastructure",
      "color": "blue",
      "keywords": [
        "ai 基础设施",
        "ai infrastructure",
        "算力",
        "gpu",
        "数据中心",
        "data center",
        "nvda",
        "nvidia"
      ],
      "count": 11
    },
    {
      "id": "risk-portfolio",
      "labelZh": "风险与组合",
      "labelEn": "Risk and portfolio",
      "color": "red",
      "keywords": [
        "风险",
        "组合",
        "对冲",
        "波动率",
        "期权",
        "portfolio",
        "hedge",
        "volatility",
        "risk budget"
      ],
      "count": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "research-system",
      "labelZh": "综合研究",
      "labelEn": "Integrated research",
      "color": "yellow",
      "count": 1
    }
  ],
  "analystCounts": [
    {
      "label": "未识别",
      "count": 270
    },
    {
      "label": "AI Institute Reader Composer",
      "count": 1
    }
  ],
  "categoryCounts": [
    {
      "label": "其他",
      "count": 270
    },
    {
      "label": "读者报告",
      "count": 1
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "contemporaneous": true,
    "note": "This day view is assembled from public, date-stamped AI Institute research contracts."
  }
}