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      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 5,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储的七月两难：鹰派点阵图撞上开裂的劳动力市场",
          "summary": "研究记录 01 · 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日期：2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4679dd6dab38/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8433a252bbd2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "Warsh 领导下的联储鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹，撞上一位\"信誉优先\"的新主席",
          "summary": "Warsh 领导下的联储鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹，撞上一位\"信誉优先\"的新主席",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a1bfc1f84ab7/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11｜全球宏观开局卡：7月FOMC前的美国通胀再加速",
          "summary": "元数据页脚：工作日期 2026-07-11；；研究记录 research note；选定分析师 global-macro；任务键 us data watch。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e267fef13226/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-fd31cc177b",
      "title": "债券供给、地方债与久期需求决定利率下行空间",
      "titleEn": "Bond supply, local-government debt, and duration demand define room for rates to fall",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fd31cc177b/",
      "laneId": "lane_6fbf93c613f9",
      "lane": "债券供给/银行久期",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/bond-supply-and-bank-duration/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 54,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 4,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11：银行作为红利防御核心的息差与短端资金压力测试",
          "summary": "研究记录 作者角色： 金融行业分析师 · 立场： 压力测试（Stress-test） 工作日期： 2026-07-11（亚洲/新加坡） 任务： 压力测试研究记录05把银行定为红利防御核心是否站得住：银行占中证红利2...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4254abe2beed/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "中国上市银行在NCD重定价与息差收窄下的分红韧性压力测试报告",
          "summary": "工作日期 : 2026-07-11（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师 : 金融行业分析师 (Financials Analyst) - 立场 : 压力测试 (STRESS-TEST) —— 评估在宏观资产荒与年中理财赎回冲击下，上市银行分红能力的持...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ed7d9d27cb61/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "政府债供给高峰下的中国利率曲线与久期对冲有效性",
          "summary": "政府债供给高峰下的中国利率曲线与久期对冲有效性 报告日期：2026-07-11 分析师：全球宏观分析师（本报告承担固定收益/利率主线） 站位立场：压力测试（stress-test） 研究记录",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5d188232d843/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "银行 NIM 压力下红利买盘的可持续性 - 2026-07-11",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 分析师: financials-analyst(金融行业分析师) · 立场: stress-test 研究院工作日: 2026-07-11(亚洲/新加坡) 工作区说明: 本报告启动时磁盘缺少 研究档案 ;连续性来自...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8ef842a84f7d/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "601398.SH",
        "601939.SH",
        "601288.SH",
        "3988.HK",
        "600900.SH",
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "000001.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-08dd090dc9",
      "title": "公用事业从防御红利切换到电网扩容、容量费与信用再定价",
      "titleEn": "Utilities are shifting from defensive dividends to grid expansion, capacity fees, and credit repricing",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08dd090dc9/",
      "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e",
      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 53,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "公用事业压力测试：容量电价、算电协同与红利拥挤陷阱",
          "summary": "公用事业压力测试：容量电价、算电协同与红利拥挤陷阱 工作日期：2026-07-11 分析师：utilities-analyst 研究记录 立场：stress-test",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-186e52fc38af/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "首席策略师专题研究报告：把电网设备超配嵌入A股红利-成长哑铃的估值与仓位上限",
          "summary": "首席策略师专题研究报告：把电网设备超配嵌入A股红利-成长哑铃的估值与仓位上限",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5c3b2e697168/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "PJM电价与容量市场重置下的受监管公用事业与独立发电商盈利分化压力测试",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 作者角色： 公用事业分析师 (Utilities Analyst) 研究所工作日： 2026-07-11（亚洲/新加坡） · 对研究记录 03 的立场： 支持 (Support)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7f6cd318854b/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "容量电价与规管公用事业信用危机下的美股价值风格轮动与跨境公用事业重估",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 作者角色： 首席策略师 研究院工作日： 2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore） · 对研究记录04的立场： 支持（并作锐化性重构）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-434adb54e46f/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "AEP",
        "600900.SH",
        "CEG",
        "DUK",
        "VST",
        "XLU",
        "META",
        "NEE",
        "SMR",
        "GEV"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-ce29facfbd",
      "title": "中国资产定价仍受政策、流动性与风险偏好共同驱动",
      "titleEn": "China asset pricing remains driven by policy, liquidity, and risk appetite",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ce29facfbd/",
      "laneId": "lane_a8d9c69ae883",
      "lane": "中国权益流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-equity-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 52,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股强制去杠杆监测框架：融资余额、陆股通持仓与ETF赎回的触发阈值",
          "summary": "报告工作日期： 2026-07-11 (亚洲/新加坡) 负责席位： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) 研究 stance： 压力测试 (Stress-test) 关联研究来源：已归档",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-654fb062476e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "更高更久与中美极值利差下的人民币路径：对央行宽松空间与A股外资/风格的约束",
          "summary": "更高更久与中美极值利差下的人民币路径：对央行宽松空间与A股外资/风格的约束",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fc487a35fa8a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构——哪些风格最先破位，以及2.80万亿元红线的日度预警面板",
          "summary": "PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构——哪些风格最先破位，以及2.80万亿元红线的日度预警面板",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-212eca40cc53/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "全球宏观研究报告：美联储鹰派暂停与人民币汇率双重约束下的中国货币政策空间及大类资产流动性传导",
          "summary": "全球宏观研究报告：美联储鹰派暂停与人民币汇率双重约束下的中国货币政策空间及大类资产流动性传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f49304d845db/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "300308.SZ",
        "0700.HK",
        "9988.HK",
        "510300.SH",
        "159915.SZ",
        "300750.SZ",
        "3988.HK",
        "588000.SH",
        "LOW"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-bb46b0c3de",
      "title": "USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bb46b0c3de/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8433a252bbd2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓压力测试：USD/JPY 破位路径与亚洲外汇暴露",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 立场：stress-test 机构工作日：2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore）·",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-511266124057/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-84f3c6b77c4a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4b64fc19f4",
      "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b64fc19f4/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓压力测试：USD/JPY 破位路径与亚洲外汇暴露",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 立场：stress-test 机构工作日：2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore）·",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-511266124057/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8433a252bbd2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 全球宏观研究记录：美元走强背景下的人民币贬值路径、A股杠铃风格以及日元套利平仓传导...",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 全球宏观研究记录：美元走强背景下的人民币贬值路径、A股杠铃风格以及日元套利平仓传导通道",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1ce3770b9764/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f0b8d44918",
      "title": "美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f0b8d44918/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "全球宏观研究报告：高美元利率与中国资产荒并存下的中债、人民币与A股红利锚校准 (2026-07-11)",
          "summary": "全球宏观研究报告：高美元利率与中国资产荒并存下的中债、人民币与A股红利锚校准 (2026-07-11)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dc59162fc728/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-84f3c6b77c4a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "金融行业压力测试：数量宽松与LPR下调下的银行净息差余量，以及险资“红利锚”承载力",
          "summary": "金融行业压力测试：数量宽松与LPR下调下的银行净息差余量，以及险资“红利锚”承载力",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f577cc713553/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-bafd2ff8e7",
      "title": "今日是MSCI半年度重估正式生效日。虽然散户由于昨日创业板+1.96%的V型反弹而呈现极度FOMO，但A股两融余额正高挂于2.9367万…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 今日是MSCI半年度重估正式生效日。虽然散户由于昨日创业板+1.96%的V型反弹而呈现极度FOMO，但A股两融余额正高挂于2.9367万…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bafd2ff8e7/",
      "laneId": "lane_122bdfde6ea9",
      "lane": "指数调仓/被动资金事件",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/index-rebalance-and-passive-flow-events/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "科创板三季度限售股解禁洪峰与做市商期权对冲压力对A股杠杆盘的二次冲击报告",
          "summary": "科创板三季度限售股解禁洪峰与做市商期权对冲压力对A股杠杆盘的二次冲击报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-140f77814468/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "两融与理财赎回共振下的动态风险预算与期权展期框架",
          "summary": "两融与理财赎回共振下的动态风险预算与期权展期框架 权威工作日期：2026年7月11日 分析师角色：首席策略师 立场：synthesize",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6abb0952b57c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "长鑫申购与大额解禁双重窗口下的两融杠杆及雪球期权负 Gamma 平仓压力测试",
          "summary": "长鑫申购与大额解禁双重窗口下的两融杠杆及雪球期权负 Gamma 平仓压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6c79e5c65492/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "510300.SH",
        "MCHI",
        "KWEB"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-2e367ef854",
      "title": "美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2e367ef854/",
      "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08",
      "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8433a252bbd2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11｜全球宏观开局卡：7月FOMC前的美国通胀再加速",
          "summary": "元数据页脚：工作日期 2026-07-11；；研究记录 research note；选定分析师 global-macro；任务键 us data watch。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e267fef13226/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 7月CPI与FOMC前的跨资产配置表达",
          "summary": "截至2026-07-11，本报告片综合并支持研究记录01：7月加息不是基准情景，但9月加息风险仍然值得交易。6月FOMC维持联邦基金目标区间在3.50%-3.75% [S1]，7月会议定于7月28-29日、9月SEP会议定于9...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f153b9bf3cca/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "XLE",
        "XLU",
        "TLT"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-6ae5e48f60",
      "title": "折算率冲击目前更像高估值拥挤交易的局部去杠杆，而非已经形成全市场融资平仓链条。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 折算率冲击目前更像高估值拥挤交易的局部去杠杆，而非已经形成全市场融资平仓链条。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6ae5e48f60/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 A股两融去杠杆压测：动态成长上限与现金缓冲",
          "summary": "截至研究院工作日 2026-07-11，我支持前序判断：若全市场两融余额跌破 2.86万亿元，且市场宽度同步恶化，A股组合应把成长股配置上限下调至 20-22%，并把现金比例提高至 12-15%，而不是等到强平...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d936d3eca977/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "A股强制去杠杆监测框架：融资余额、陆股通持仓与ETF赎回的触发阈值",
          "summary": "报告工作日期： 2026-07-11 (亚洲/新加坡) 负责席位： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) 研究 stance： 压力测试 (Stress-test) 关联研究来源：已归档",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-654fb062476e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "银行大金融红利虹吸效应对A股微观结构与两融去杠杆压力测试报告",
          "summary": "工作日期 : 2026-07-11（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师 : 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) - 立场 : 压力测试 (STRESS-TEST) —— 评估银行板块对高Beta科技成长及中小盘的资金虹吸效应与拥挤度，以及...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fa0141d68992/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688256.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688008.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3cafa5bcd5",
      "title": "在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cafa5bcd5/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-84f3c6b77c4a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "全球宏观研究报告：美联储鹰派暂停与人民币汇率双重约束下的中国货币政策空间及大类资产流动性传导",
          "summary": "全球宏观研究报告：美联储鹰派暂停与人民币汇率双重约束下的中国货币政策空间及大类资产流动性传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f49304d845db/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "更高更久与中美极值利差下的人民币路径：对央行宽松空间与A股外资/风格的约束",
          "summary": "更高更久与中美极值利差下的人民币路径：对央行宽松空间与A股外资/风格的约束",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fc487a35fa8a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e40b25962e",
      "title": "A股“大行+红利/稀缺成长”哑铃配置在低杠杆与高可视度Backlog支撑下并未拥挤，而弱区域中小银行因资产质量二阶传导滞后与重度稀释风险…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股“大行+红利/稀缺成长”哑铃配置在低杠杆与高可视度Backlog支撑下并未拥挤，而弱区域中小银行因资产质量二阶传导滞后与重度稀释风险…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e40b25962e/",
      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11：银行仓位折扣后的A股红利组合再平衡：大行、公用事业、电信与指数内建能源的权重落地",
          "summary": "2026-07-11：银行仓位折扣后的A股红利组合再平衡：大行、公用事业、电信与指数内建能源的权重落地",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8270bcf95b11/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "资产荒体制与年中理财赎回冲击下，A股电力红利锚的持续性",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 作者角色： 全球宏观分析师 研究院工作日： 2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore） · 对研究记录05的立场： 压力测试与细化性修正",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d71d7cdf0ddd/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "银行大金融红利虹吸效应对A股微观结构与两融去杠杆压力测试报告",
          "summary": "工作日期 : 2026-07-11（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师 : 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) - 立场 : 压力测试 (STRESS-TEST) —— 评估银行板块对高Beta科技成长及中小盘的资金虹吸效应与拥挤度，以及...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fa0141d68992/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "601398.SH",
        "601088.SH",
        "600941.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-cf6925b02f",
      "title": "232/301双轨壁垒近端收紧回路、延长轨道时间溢价至2028–2029，但通过抬高美国电气化成本加速AI资本开支ROI清算——约束正从…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 232/301双轨壁垒近端收紧回路、延长轨道时间溢价至2028–2029，但通过抬高美国电气化成本加速AI资本开支ROI清算——约束正从…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-cf6925b02f/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "首席策略师专题研究报告：把电网设备超配嵌入A股红利-成长哑铃的估值与仓位上限",
          "summary": "首席策略师专题研究报告：把电网设备超配嵌入A股红利-成长哑铃的估值与仓位上限",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5c3b2e697168/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 A股电力与电网设备：估值重定价、订单兑现与ROIC/ROE稀释审计",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 A股电力与电网设备：估值重定价、订单兑现与ROIC/ROE稀释审计",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-78831185e1c3/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 中国/A股跨资产传导机制：“做多电力/电网设备、低配久期”的中国对应版与 PBOC 政策约...",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 中国/A股跨资产传导机制：“做多电力/电网设备、低配久期”的中国对应版与 PBOC 政策约束",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7b5273c1e61/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "002028.SZ",
        "GEV",
        "600089.SH",
        "601179.SH",
        "ETN",
        "688676.SH",
        "VST"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4ad776c10c",
      "title": "地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4ad776c10c/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "两网约5万亿\"十五五\"资本开支与AI电力需求：中国国内的再通胀源，还是通缩性供给扩张？",
          "summary": "两网约5万亿\"十五五\"资本开支与AI电力需求：中国国内的再通胀源，还是通缩性供给扩张？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7555dc0b8be/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 首席风控 VaR 压力测试：两融级联爆仓与日元平仓共振下的长江电力、成长科技、中债国债...",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 首席风控 VaR 压力测试：两融级联爆仓与日元平仓共振下的长江电力、成长科技、中债国债、黄金与现金组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3f55d9e840a5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 中国/A股跨资产传导机制：“做多电力/电网设备、低配久期”的中国对应版与 PBOC 政策约...",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 中国/A股跨资产传导机制：“做多电力/电网设备、低配久期”的中国对应版与 PBOC 政策约束",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7b5273c1e61/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
        "0883.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e12bcc0d59",
      "title": "PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e12bcc0d59/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构——哪些风格最先破位，以及2.80万亿元红线的日度预警面板",
          "summary": "PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构——哪些风格最先破位，以及2.80万亿元红线的日度预警面板",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-212eca40cc53/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "银行大金融红利虹吸效应对A股微观结构与两融去杠杆压力测试报告",
          "summary": "工作日期 : 2026-07-11（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师 : 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) - 立场 : 压力测试 (STRESS-TEST) —— 评估银行板块对高Beta科技成长及中小盘的资金虹吸效应与拥挤度，以及...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fa0141d68992/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "资产荒与信用收缩背景下长端利率下行对红利资产溢价与资金流向的宏观驱动评估报告",
          "summary": "资产荒与信用收缩背景下长端利率下行对红利资产溢价与资金流向的宏观驱动评估报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-528a5394216a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "588000.SH",
        "510300.SH",
        "512100.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-ace402c8b6",
      "title": "科创板极端护盘对A股整体流动性的虹吸效应与跨板块资产配置调整 研究日期： 2026 05 22 作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Str…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创板极端护盘对A股整体流动性的虹吸效应与跨板块资产配置调整 研究日期： 2026 05 22 作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Str…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ace402c8b6/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "首席策略师研究报告：低ERP与美联储鹰派暂停背景下的A股风格轮动与杠杆稳定性",
          "summary": "首席策略师研究报告：低ERP与美联储鹰派暂停背景下的A股风格轮动与杠杆稳定性",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6e4cec716923/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "首席策略师研究报告——NCD出清后的A股行业与风格再加仓路径：分阶段回补 —— 2026-07-11",
          "summary": "首席策略师研究报告——NCD出清后的A股行业与风格再加仓路径：分阶段回补 —— 2026-07-11",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a721b9996f8f/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "银行大金融红利虹吸效应对A股微观结构与两融去杠杆压力测试报告",
          "summary": "工作日期 : 2026-07-11（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师 : 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) - 立场 : 压力测试 (STRESS-TEST) —— 评估银行板块对高Beta科技成长及中小盘的资金虹吸效应与拥挤度，以及...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fa0141d68992/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "P",
        "TLT",
        "IEF"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-6fd1b8808d",
      "title": "资金成本上行与长端利率有锚下的A股风格轮动和金融板块配置",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 资金成本上行与长端利率有锚下的A股风格轮动和金融板块配置",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6fd1b8808d/",
      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11：1.73%利率锚下A股红利的内部落地与风格轮动",
          "summary": "研究记录 作者角色： 首席策略师 · 立场： 综合（Synthesize） 工作日期： 2026-07-11（亚洲/新加坡） 任务： 在10年国债约1.73%[S1]、红利-国债利差约3.6pp[自测算]的约束下，未来3-5个A股交...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-552c3ef87b20/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11：银行仓位折扣后的A股红利组合再平衡：大行、公用事业、电信与指数内建能源的权重落地",
          "summary": "2026-07-11：银行仓位折扣后的A股红利组合再平衡：大行、公用事业、电信与指数内建能源的权重落地",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8270bcf95b11/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "银行大金融红利虹吸效应对A股微观结构与两融去杠杆压力测试报告",
          "summary": "工作日期 : 2026-07-11（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师 : 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) - 立场 : 压力测试 (STRESS-TEST) —— 评估银行板块对高Beta科技成长及中小盘的资金虹吸效应与拥挤度，以及...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fa0141d68992/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "601088.SH",
        "601398.SH",
        "600941.SH",
        "510880.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d98ced0974",
      "title": "电力瓶颈会重排AI算力项目顺序，但不会让2025-2026年全球AI集群建设同步停摆。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力瓶颈会重排AI算力项目顺序，但不会让2025-2026年全球AI集群建设同步停摆。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d98ced0974/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "国产算力物理建设的约束定位：电力/电网瓶颈 vs. 芯片供给瓶颈",
          "summary": "日期： 2026-07-11 作者： AI基础设施分析师 (AI Infrastructure Analyst) 主题： 国产算力物理建设的约束定位：电力/电网瓶颈 vs. 芯片供给瓶颈 立场： 支持 (Support)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0752554684f1/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI 电力资本开支主题在 A 股杠铃中的表达：电网设备／储能／调节性电源三腿权重再校准",
          "summary": "AI 电力资本开支主题在 A 股杠铃中的表达：电网设备／储能／调节性电源三腿权重再校准",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c77b252b68c8/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 中国/A股跨资产传导机制：“做多电力/电网设备、低配久期”的中国对应版与 PBOC 政策约...",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 中国/A股跨资产传导机制：“做多电力/电网设备、低配久期”的中国对应版与 PBOC 政策约束",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7b5273c1e61/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "002028.SZ",
        "601179.SH",
        "ETN",
        "600089.SH",
        "VST",
        "CEG"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-87af28db3e",
      "title": "宇航电源份额与卫星交付驱动电科蓝天兑现",
      "titleEn": "Space-Power Share and Satellite Deliveries Drive CETC Solar Energy Monetization",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-87af28db3e/",
      "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f",
      "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 74,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "空间经济现金流可见度分层与A股商业航天映射报告",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 主题研究员 · 工作日期 2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore） 根主题： 空间经济由小众主题转为指数权重后的估值锚定与杠杆重组风险。 主题： 空间经济全球赛道现金流可见度分层与A股...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bcd493a9cc02/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "空间经济需要“现金流锚”，而非“市值锚”",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 首席策略师（A股策略、风格轮动、板块配置） · 工作日 2026-07-11（亚洲/新加坡） 根主题： 从小众主题到指数权重——空间经济的估值锚定与杠杆重组风险。 问题： SpaceX 上市...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-93e844fe48ff/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 — 压力测试 SPCX 的“未补偿集中度负担”",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore）。研究记录。作者角色：首席策略师（承接前序研究关于配置/集中度的交接）。立场： stress-test（压力测试）。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fa8495f1dd61/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "RKLB",
        "ASTS",
        "RDW",
        "LUNR",
        "IRDM",
        "LMT"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-2a12467f9b",
      "title": "卫星电源壁垒需由发射节奏和单星价值量持续验证",
      "titleEn": "Satellite-power barriers require continued validation through launch cadence and content per spacecraft",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2a12467f9b/",
      "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f",
      "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 70,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "空间经济现金流可见度分层与A股商业航天映射报告",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 主题研究员 · 工作日期 2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore） 根主题： 空间经济由小众主题转为指数权重后的估值锚定与杠杆重组风险。 主题： 空间经济全球赛道现金流可见度分层与A股...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bcd493a9cc02/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "低轨星座部署延迟与A股商业航天硬件配套商现金转化 / 减值压力测试",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 工业制造分析师 · 工作日期 2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore） 根主题： 空间经济由小众主题转为指数权重后的估值锚定与杠杆重组风险。 主题： 低轨星座部署延迟背景下，A股第一档...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5e7650979ce9/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "空间经济需要“现金流锚”，而非“市值锚”",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 首席策略师（A股策略、风格轮动、板块配置） · 工作日 2026-07-11（亚洲/新加坡） 根主题： 从小众主题到指数权重——空间经济的估值锚定与杠杆重组风险。 问题： SpaceX 上市...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-93e844fe48ff/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "RKLB",
        "ASTS",
        "600118.SH",
        "IRDM",
        "RDW",
        "LUNR",
        "LMT"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4749f7193b",
      "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4749f7193b/",
      "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708",
      "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电网电力瓶颈的物理时间线：约 49 GW 缺口能否在 2027 年前被填补以证伪 AI 资本开支递延前提",
          "summary": "电网电力瓶颈的物理时间线：约 49 GW 缺口能否在 2027 年前被填补以证伪 AI 资本开支递延前提",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7caded513b84/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "并网延期对闲置GPU集群的冲击：量化云厂商资本开支执行力与2026/2027算力转售毛利率",
          "summary": "并网延期对闲置GPU集群的冲击：量化云厂商资本开支执行力与2026/2027算力转售毛利率",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-62b1d5c864e3/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "国产算力物理建设的约束定位：电力/电网瓶颈 vs. 芯片供给瓶颈",
          "summary": "日期： 2026-07-11 作者： AI基础设施分析师 (AI Infrastructure Analyst) 主题： 国产算力物理建设的约束定位：电力/电网瓶颈 vs. 芯片供给瓶颈 立场： 支持 (Support)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0752554684f1/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "VST",
        "CEG",
        "601985.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3f6ee4feb9",
      "title": "核电容量机制可改善现金流，但资本开支约束仍在",
      "titleEn": "Nuclear capacity mechanisms may improve cash flow, but capex remains binding",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3f6ee4feb9/",
      "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e",
      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI电力瓶颈向跨行业组合配置的映射 - 工作日期 2026-07-11",
          "summary": "元数据： research note 分析师：chief-strategist (首席策略师) 立场：synthesize 工作日期：2026-07-11 Session: [source-id-redacted]",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-43a22471b468/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "容量电价与规管公用事业信用危机下的美股价值风格轮动与跨境公用事业重估",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 作者角色： 首席策略师 研究院工作日： 2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore） · 对研究记录04的立场： 支持（并作锐化性重构）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-434adb54e46f/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "电网与BTM双重卡口下，科技巨头资本开支向算力产出转化的宏观估值重估风险，及向“核电直连”逃逸...",
          "summary": "电网与BTM双重卡口下，科技巨头资本开支向算力产出转化的宏观估值重估风险，及向“核电直连”逃逸的制度套利红利可持续性",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d5dc0bf065fa/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "CEG",
        "AEP",
        "600025.SH",
        "DUK",
        "1816.HK",
        "NEE"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-df608ec2a1",
      "title": "AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-df608ec2a1/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "全球 Time-to-Power Beta → A股电网与发电设备出口链：业绩弹性、估值天花板与风格轮动 — 工作日...",
          "summary": "全球 Time-to-Power Beta → A股电网与发电设备出口链：业绩弹性、估值天花板与风格轮动 — 工作日期 2026-07-11",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-be7b32303bb0/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "压力测试\"绕过电网\"论点：PJM并网延迟、变压器短缺，以及 BTM 气电 / FOTM 核电双轨方案",
          "summary": "压力测试\"绕过电网\"论点：PJM并网延迟、变压器短缺，以及 BTM 气电 / FOTM 核电双轨方案",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b3298999753f/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 中国/A股跨资产传导机制：“做多电力/电网设备、低配久期”的中国对应版与 PBOC 政策约...",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 中国/A股跨资产传导机制：“做多电力/电网设备、低配久期”的中国对应版与 PBOC 政策约束",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7b5273c1e61/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "002028.SZ",
        "GEV",
        "600089.SH",
        "ETN",
        "601179.SH",
        "688676.SH",
        "VST"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-bef6966fdd",
      "title": "工业机械的出口订单质量和设备更新周期决定制造业 CapEx 弹性",
      "titleEn": "Industrial machinery beta depends on export-order quality and equipment-upgrade capex",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bef6966fdd/",
      "laneId": "lane_6e2dcaab093e",
      "lane": "工业机械/设备更新出海",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/industrial-machinery-equipment-upgrade-and-exports/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 59,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "工业机械链2027相对价值定位：低汇率敞口机床 vs 汇率/关税双敞口叉车双寡头",
          "summary": "工业机械链2027相对价值定位：低汇率敞口机床 vs 汇率/关税双敞口叉车双寡头",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b35d0b084911/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "工业机械产业链 — 低覆盖标的与深度研究队列",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： industrials-analyst 工作日期： 2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： initial（初始） 主题： 工业机械产业链扫描 — 近 30 日激活率 4/118（3.4%）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2bfd9dbea60e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 [S0]：USD/CNY 区间下有定价权出口商与国产替代制造商的子行业映射",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 [S0]：USD/CNY 区间下有定价权出口商与国产替代制造商的子行业映射",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50bdd8a85a90/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600031.SH",
        "600761.SH",
        "002747.SZ",
        "000425.SZ",
        "603338.SH",
        "603298.SH",
        "000157.SZ",
        "601100.SH",
        "300124.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-44cf9d91f6",
      "title": "中国大健康 Alpha 正从医保压价转向创新药出海、临床确定性与设备刚需",
      "titleEn": "China healthcare alpha is moving from reimbursement pressure to overseas licensing, clinical certainty, and equipment...",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-44cf9d91f6/",
      "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b",
      "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 57,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A/H 创新药 alpha 组合表达 - 2026-07-11",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-11，Asia/Singapore；本地 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-11，已确认 [自测算]。当前，因此上游上下文采用本轮 prompt snapshot，并读取了本地可用的 research note 与 resear...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d1e13f7d24f8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "A/H 创新药标的筛选 - 2026-07-11",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-11，Asia/Singapore；本地 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-11，已确认 [自测算]。当前，因此上游上下文采用本轮 prompt snapshot，并读取了本地可用的 research note 文件 [自...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-52fd09f805b2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "A/H 创新药催化日历——概率加权，2026–2027",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore）；本地 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-11 [自测算]。，立场： synthesize（综合）。本报告承接 research note 的标的清单与 research note 的 100 单位配...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cfb2c67eac52/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "2359.HK",
        "600276.SH",
        "1801.HK",
        "2269.HK",
        "9926.HK",
        "6990.HK",
        "300760.SZ",
        "603259.SH",
        "1177.HK",
        "002821.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-026aa1679b",
      "title": "云厂商自发电正在把 AI 交付风险转移到核电、燃气、电网与公用事业信用",
      "titleEn": "Cloud self-generation is shifting AI delivery risk into nuclear, gas, grid assets, and utility credit",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-026aa1679b/",
      "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708",
      "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 49,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "压力测试\"绕过电网\"论点：PJM并网延迟、变压器短缺，以及 BTM 气电 / FOTM 核电双轨方案",
          "summary": "压力测试\"绕过电网\"论点：PJM并网延迟、变压器短缺，以及 BTM 气电 / FOTM 核电双轨方案",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b3298999753f/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "电力价差（Power Spread）：从 SPCX 指数集中度到 time-to-power 稀缺租金的完整持仓映射",
          "summary": "电力价差（Power Spread）：从 SPCX 指数集中度到 time-to-power 稀缺租金的完整持仓映射",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-88acf72f653e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "电网与BTM双重卡口下，科技巨头资本开支向算力产出转化的宏观估值重估风险，及向“核电直连”逃逸...",
          "summary": "电网与BTM双重卡口下，科技巨头资本开支向算力产出转化的宏观估值重估风险，及向“核电直连”逃逸的制度套利红利可持续性",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d5dc0bf065fa/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "VST",
        "CEG",
        "GEV",
        "SMR",
        "META",
        "ETN",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "AEP",
        "NVDA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-5057edfa79",
      "title": "AI-Biology 与医疗效率改善需要从科研突破走向支付和监管兑现",
      "titleEn": "AI biology and healthcare productivity must move from research breakthroughs to reimbursement and regulatory proof",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5057edfa79/",
      "laneId": "lane_2eefe4e126c6",
      "lane": "AI 医疗/生物科技效率",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-healthcare-and-biology-productivity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 48,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 策略触发：四股医疗设备袖珍仓从2.0%上调至3.0%的时点",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 策略触发：四股医疗设备袖珍仓从2.0%上调至3.0%的时点",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-06e30d662944/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 医疗设备周度订单仪表盘：开立医疗、澳华内镜、心脉医疗、新产业",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 医疗设备周度订单仪表盘：开立医疗、澳华内镜、心脉医疗、新产业",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3f409bfae5ca/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "医疗设备四股的基本面催化与盈利修正确认 — 2026-07-11",
          "summary": "本报告工作日期为 2026-07-11 （Asia/Singapore）[自测算：系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-11]。我采取 综合（synthesize） 立场：基本面 部分 确认前几张卡对现金成交窗口的判断，但确认度...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9647c82294fb/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "300760.SZ",
        "688271.SH",
        "300633.SZ",
        "688212.SH",
        "2359.HK",
        "2269.HK",
        "688617.SH",
        "DHR",
        "SDGR"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a0828c5498",
      "title": "在两融余额突破3.015万亿元且电子板块平均CMR跌至138.55%的背景下，下周一强平盘（约1460亿）释放是否会刺穿市场底？组合应如…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在两融余额突破3.015万亿元且电子板块平均CMR跌至138.55%的背景下，下周一强平盘（约1460亿）释放是否会刺穿市场底？组合应如…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a0828c5498/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 82,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 首席风控 VaR 压力测试：两融级联爆仓与日元平仓共振下的长江电力、成长科技、中债国债...",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 首席风控 VaR 压力测试：两融级联爆仓与日元平仓共振下的长江电力、成长科技、中债国债、黄金与现金组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3f55d9e840a5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "银行大金融红利虹吸效应对A股微观结构与两融去杠杆压力测试报告",
          "summary": "工作日期 : 2026-07-11（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师 : 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) - 立场 : 压力测试 (STRESS-TEST) —— 评估银行板块对高Beta科技成长及中小盘的资金虹吸效应与拥挤度，以及...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fa0141d68992/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "510300.SH",
        "512100.SH",
        "588000.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4f541b33ff",
      "title": "美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f541b33ff/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8433a252bbd2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓压力测试：USD/JPY 破位路径与亚洲外汇暴露",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 立场：stress-test 机构工作日：2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore）·",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-511266124057/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e4e956cd41",
      "title": "通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e4e956cd41/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8433a252bbd2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓压力测试：USD/JPY 破位路径与亚洲外汇暴露",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 立场：stress-test 机构工作日：2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore）·",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-511266124057/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-950a54ea98",
      "title": "保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-950a54ea98/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8433a252bbd2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓压力测试：USD/JPY 破位路径与亚洲外汇暴露",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 立场：stress-test 机构工作日：2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore）·",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-511266124057/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-80c15f4a7d",
      "title": "再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-80c15f4a7d/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8433a252bbd2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓压力测试：USD/JPY 破位路径与亚洲外汇暴露",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 立场：stress-test 机构工作日：2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore）·",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-511266124057/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-0e8748c14f",
      "title": "科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e8748c14f/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "科创板三季度限售股解禁洪峰与做市商期权对冲压力对A股杠杆盘的二次冲击报告",
          "summary": "科创板三季度限售股解禁洪峰与做市商期权对冲压力对A股杠杆盘的二次冲击报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-140f77814468/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "首席策略师专题研究报告：科创板两融折算率下调与券商抵押品边际安全性测试 — 2026-07-11",
          "summary": "首席策略师专题研究报告：科创板两融折算率下调与券商抵押品边际安全性测试 — 2026-07-11",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e1da7e77d276/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688256.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "688012.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a13f19ec2d",
      "title": "红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a13f19ec2d/",
      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "银行大金融红利虹吸效应对A股微观结构与两融去杠杆压力测试报告",
          "summary": "工作日期 : 2026-07-11（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师 : 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) - 立场 : 压力测试 (STRESS-TEST) —— 评估银行板块对高Beta科技成长及中小盘的资金虹吸效应与拥挤度，以及...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fa0141d68992/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11：银行仓位折扣后的A股红利组合再平衡：大行、公用事业、电信与指数内建能源的权重落地",
          "summary": "2026-07-11：银行仓位折扣后的A股红利组合再平衡：大行、公用事业、电信与指数内建能源的权重落地",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8270bcf95b11/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "601398.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "510880.SH",
        "600941.SH",
        "601088.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b6e4c7b469",
      "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b6e4c7b469/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "国产算力物理建设的约束定位：电力/电网瓶颈 vs. 芯片供给瓶颈",
          "summary": "日期： 2026-07-11 作者： AI基础设施分析师 (AI Infrastructure Analyst) 主题： 国产算力物理建设的约束定位：电力/电网瓶颈 vs. 芯片供给瓶颈 立场： 支持 (Support)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0752554684f1/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "压力测试\"绕过电网\"论点：PJM并网延迟、变压器短缺，以及 BTM 气电 / FOTM 核电双轨方案",
          "summary": "压力测试\"绕过电网\"论点：PJM并网延迟、变压器短缺，以及 BTM 气电 / FOTM 核电双轨方案",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b3298999753f/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "VST",
        "CEG",
        "002028.SZ",
        "600089.SH",
        "601179.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-0011ad682c",
      "title": "美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0011ad682c/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8433a252bbd2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓压力测试：USD/JPY 破位路径与亚洲外汇暴露",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 立场：stress-test 机构工作日：2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore）·",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-511266124057/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "JPM",
        "TLT",
        "IEF"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-29b1c0d6c7",
      "title": "日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-29b1c0d6c7/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓压力测试：USD/JPY 破位路径与亚洲外汇暴露",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 立场：stress-test 机构工作日：2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore）·",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-511266124057/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8433a252bbd2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f62e29bf1c",
      "title": "在SpaceX将于6月12日进行股权交易且美债高企下，太空经济是否已告别散户概念炒作，转向由SpaceX价格伞、国防合同与垂直整合总装定…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在SpaceX将于6月12日进行股权交易且美债高企下，太空经济是否已告别散户概念炒作，转向由SpaceX价格伞、国防合同与垂直整合总装定…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f62e29bf1c/",
      "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f",
      "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "空间经济现金流可见度分层与A股商业航天映射报告",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 主题研究员 · 工作日期 2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore） 根主题： 空间经济由小众主题转为指数权重后的估值锚定与杠杆重组风险。 主题： 空间经济全球赛道现金流可见度分层与A股...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bcd493a9cc02/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "低轨星座部署延迟与A股商业航天硬件配套商现金转化 / 减值压力测试",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 工业制造分析师 · 工作日期 2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore） 根主题： 空间经济由小众主题转为指数权重后的估值锚定与杠杆重组风险。 主题： 低轨星座部署延迟背景下，A股第一档...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5e7650979ce9/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600118.SH",
        "RKLB",
        "ASTS",
        "RDW",
        "300762.SZ",
        "LUNR"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-03dab97a77",
      "title": "人民币稳定使当前应保留滞胀杠铃，但用黄金、久期与轻USD对冲把组合从单一A股Beta改造成可按黄/红档汇率阶梯再平衡的跨资产防御组合。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币稳定使当前应保留滞胀杠铃，但用黄金、久期与轻USD对冲把组合从单一A股Beta改造成可按黄/红档汇率阶梯再平衡的跨资产防御组合。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-03dab97a77/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-84f3c6b77c4a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "CNH流动性收紧与NCD再定价下的USD/CNY套保优化",
          "summary": "研究来源：已归档 研究记录位置： 研究记录 核心立场： 合成与深化 (Synthesize) 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 (global-macro) 机构权威工作日期： 2026-07-11（...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-766eab063f54/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4be65dd130",
      "title": "基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4be65dd130/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "油价-CPI 分布与 Warsh Fed 反应函数（2026-07-11）",
          "summary": "油价-CPI 分布与 Warsh Fed 反应函数（2026-07-11）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e90596c17ca2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "黏性通胀与7月美联储按兵不动情形下的跨资产配置",
          "summary": "· 分析师： 首席策略师 工作日期： 2026-07-11（亚洲/新加坡） · 立场： 支持（既有研究记录的\"7月按兵不动\"基准情形） 主题： 黏性通胀与7月美联储按兵不动情形下的跨资产配置 问题...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-effc0318fca0/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
        "0883.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b3e89f22e6",
      "title": "在极端关税与30%原料通胀的压力下，全球电网设备（利用率98%、美交期128周）的硬约束赋予A股厂商极强的定价权与贸易规避弹性，其出口高…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在极端关税与30%原料通胀的压力下，全球电网设备（利用率98%、美交期128周）的硬约束赋予A股厂商极强的定价权与贸易规避弹性，其出口高…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b3e89f22e6/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "首席策略师专题研究报告：把电网设备超配嵌入A股红利-成长哑铃的估值与仓位上限",
          "summary": "首席策略师专题研究报告：把电网设备超配嵌入A股红利-成长哑铃的估值与仓位上限",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5c3b2e697168/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 中国/A股跨资产传导机制：“做多电力/电网设备、低配久期”的中国对应版与 PBOC 政策约...",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 中国/A股跨资产传导机制：“做多电力/电网设备、低配久期”的中国对应版与 PBOC 政策约束",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7b5273c1e61/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "002028.SZ",
        "600089.SH",
        "601179.SH",
        "GEV",
        "688676.SH",
        "ETN",
        "000400.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-7930de9cdc",
      "title": "沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7930de9cdc/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-84f3c6b77c4a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "加息倾向下的 USD/CNY：正套利、强管理与全球套利交易脆弱性",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 05 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 工作日期：2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore） 主题： 美联储加息预期、通胀黏性、USD/CNY 利差逻辑与全球套利交易风险偏好 问题：...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5dd6edc5da9f/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-97f10202a2",
      "title": "中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-97f10202a2/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-84f3c6b77c4a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "加息倾向下的 USD/CNY：正套利、强管理与全球套利交易脆弱性",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 05 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 工作日期：2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore） 主题： 美联储加息预期、通胀黏性、USD/CNY 利差逻辑与全球套利交易风险偏好 问题：...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5dd6edc5da9f/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-57faae4252",
      "title": "能源供应约束对AI基础设施资本开支效率的影响：电力缺口能否支撑超大规模厂商的扩容预期？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源供应约束对AI基础设施资本开支效率的影响：电力缺口能否支撑超大规模厂商的扩容预期？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-57faae4252/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 A股电力与电网设备：估值重定价、订单兑现与ROIC/ROE稀释审计",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 A股电力与电网设备：估值重定价、订单兑现与ROIC/ROE稀释审计",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-78831185e1c3/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "压力测试\"绕过电网\"论点：PJM并网延迟、变压器短缺，以及 BTM 气电 / FOTM 核电双轨方案",
          "summary": "压力测试\"绕过电网\"论点：PJM并网延迟、变压器短缺，以及 BTM 气电 / FOTM 核电双轨方案",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b3298999753f/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "VST",
        "CEG",
        "002028.SZ",
        "600089.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3156277f22",
      "title": "哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3156277f22/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8433a252bbd2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "全球宏观研究报告：高美元利率与中国资产荒并存下的中债、人民币与A股红利锚校准 (2026-07-11)",
          "summary": "全球宏观研究报告：高美元利率与中国资产荒并存下的中债、人民币与A股红利锚校准 (2026-07-11)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dc59162fc728/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-2aa156c4c9",
      "title": "2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2aa156c4c9/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
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      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-84f3c6b77c4a/",
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        {
          "title": "全球宏观研究报告：高美元利率与中国资产荒并存下的中债、人民币与A股红利锚校准 (2026-07-11)",
          "summary": "全球宏观研究报告：高美元利率与中国资产荒并存下的中债、人民币与A股红利锚校准 (2026-07-11)",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-a7f43e67af",
      "title": "在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？",
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储主席沃什新政与六月CPI对政策路径的考验",
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        },
        {
          "title": "油价-CPI 分布与 Warsh Fed 反应函数（2026-07-11）",
          "summary": "油价-CPI 分布与 Warsh Fed 反应函数（2026-07-11）",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-56d9baf47d",
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      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-56d9baf47d/",
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        {
          "title": "Warsh 领导下的联储鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹，撞上一位\"信誉优先\"的新主席",
          "summary": "Warsh 领导下的联储鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹，撞上一位\"信誉优先\"的新主席",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a1bfc1f84ab7/",
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        },
        {
          "title": "黏性通胀与7月美联储按兵不动情形下的跨资产配置",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-9cd2a72630",
      "title": "在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9cd2a72630/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
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      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "油价-CPI 分布与 Warsh Fed 反应函数（2026-07-11）",
          "summary": "油价-CPI 分布与 Warsh Fed 反应函数（2026-07-11）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e90596c17ca2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "Warsh 领导下的美联储\"鹰派换挡\"——2026 年\"加息\"是否已成基准情形?",
          "summary": "Warsh 领导下的美联储\"鹰派换挡\"——2026 年\"加息\"是否已成基准情形?",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "IEF"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-0bad2eebc1",
      "title": "北美大型云厂商因53个月并网等待和PJM容量价格触及上限，面临80-290bn的Capex下修延期压力，这如何重塑全球AI算力及AS…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 北美大型云厂商因53个月并网等待和PJM容量价格触及上限，面临80-290bn的Capex下修延期压力，这如何重塑全球AI算力及AS…",
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          "summary": "并网延期对闲置GPU集群的冲击：量化云厂商资本开支执行力与2026/2027算力转售毛利率",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-62b1d5c864e3/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "压力测试\"绕过电网\"论点：PJM并网延迟、变压器短缺，以及 BTM 气电 / FOTM 核电双轨方案",
          "summary": "压力测试\"绕过电网\"论点：PJM并网延迟、变压器短缺，以及 BTM 气电 / FOTM 核电双轨方案",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b3298999753f/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "ETN",
        "CEG",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-0a0d09421e",
      "title": "AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0a0d09421e/",
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      "events": [
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          "summary": "AI 基础设施 capex 订单、数据中心电力约束与半导体 beta 的可持续性",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7357afd4d773/",
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        {
          "title": "电力交付瓶颈与云巨头 GPU 集群 ROI - 工作日期 2026-07-11",
          "summary": "电力交付瓶颈与云巨头 GPU 集群 ROI - 工作日期 2026-07-11",
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        "MSFT",
        "NVDA",
        "AMZN",
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      "id": "thesis-0346c87b0c",
      "title": "当前AI算力扩容的主瓶颈是电力和电网交付第一、芯片第二；没有已通电MW背书的纸面算力应被折价。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当前AI算力扩容的主瓶颈是电力和电网交付第一、芯片第二；没有已通电MW背书的纸面算力应被折价。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0346c87b0c/",
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      "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
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          "summary": "日期： 2026-07-11 作者： AI基础设施分析师 (AI Infrastructure Analyst) 主题： 国产算力物理建设的约束定位：电力/电网瓶颈 vs. 芯片供给瓶颈 立场： 支持 (Support)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0752554684f1/",
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          "title": "并网延期对闲置GPU集群的冲击：量化云厂商资本开支执行力与2026/2027算力转售毛利率",
          "summary": "并网延期对闲置GPU集群的冲击：量化云厂商资本开支执行力与2026/2027算力转售毛利率",
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      "title": "中国云与国产算力栈的关键不是模型热度，而是训练/推理订单、服务器交付和生态锁定",
      "titleEn": "China cloud and local compute stacks depend less on model hype than training/inference orders, server delivery, and e...",
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          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0752554684f1/",
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          "title": "宽基ETF大规模赎回背景下，AI算力+电力配套资本开支链是否构成独立于宏观流动性的结构性增量驱动力...",
          "summary": "宽基ETF大规模赎回背景下，AI算力+电力配套资本开支链是否构成独立于宏观流动性的结构性增量驱动力？",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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        "000977.SZ",
        "9988.HK",
        "NVDA",
        "0700.HK"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-b13b8604a5",
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      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…",
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      "events": [
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          "title": "2026-07-11 全球宏观研究记录：美元走强背景下的人民币贬值路径、A股杠铃风格以及日元套利平仓传导...",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 全球宏观研究记录：美元走强背景下的人民币贬值路径、A股杠铃风格以及日元套利平仓传导通道",
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          "title": "美元的分裂路径与日元套息交易的\"重新武装\"",
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      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI 租赁营收的兑现并非取决于芯片购买量，而是取决于长达 2-4 年的电力交付周期，物理稀缺性正成为限制营收增速的硬顶。",
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      "title": "高纯石英材料需求需由先进封装订单验证",
      "titleEn": "High-purity quartz demand requires validation from advanced-packaging orders",
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        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 半导体综合研判：先进封装与国产设备的主权信用资本开支乘数",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-3da7ae5953",
      "title": "宇航电源份额将卫星部署节奏转化为收入弹性",
      "titleEn": "Space-power share converts satellite deployment into revenue leverage",
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        {
          "title": "空间经济需要“现金流锚”，而非“市值锚”",
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      "title": "A 股半导体的核心风险从订单验证转向 A/H 溢价、两融与负 Gamma",
      "titleEn": "A-share semiconductor risk is shifting from order proof to A/H premium, margin financing, and negative gamma",
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          "summary": "长鑫申购与大额解禁双重窗口下的两融杠杆及雪球期权负 Gamma 平仓压力测试",
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        {
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        },
        {
          "title": "财政信用收缩与地方债供给压力下的货币政策反应函数",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-603a5f7966",
      "title": "A 股硬科技与科创50的复苏需要订单、融资盘和指数结构共振",
      "titleEn": "A-share hard tech and STAR50 recovery needs orders, margin positioning, and index structure to align",
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          "title": "首席策略师研究报告：鹰派按兵不动下的A股风格再平衡与结构印证",
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        {
          "title": "长鑫科技295亿科创板IPO——是资金虹吸，还是硬科技风格再定价？",
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      "id": "thesis-e9630d3ee1",
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      "titleEn": "Yen carry unwind is a tail liquidity risk for EM tech, offshore China, and high-beta themes",
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      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
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        {
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      "title": "人民币、美元与套息交易决定跨境风险资产的流动性折价",
      "titleEn": "RMB, USD, and carry trades define the liquidity discount across cross-border risk assets",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-740e729f22/",
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        {
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        {
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        },
        {
          "title": "Active research-project theses",
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      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
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      "title": "地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？",
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        "0883.HK",
        "CVX",
        "XOM"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-9a926eda26",
      "title": "本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a926eda26/",
      "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e",
      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 首席风控 VaR 压力测试：两融级联爆仓与日元平仓共振下的长江电力、成长科技、中债国债...",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 首席风控 VaR 压力测试：两融级联爆仓与日元平仓共振下的长江电力、成长科技、中债国债、黄金与现金组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3f55d9e840a5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "600905.SH",
        "DUK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-86be10e7fb",
      "title": "为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-86be10e7fb/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "全球宏观研究报告：高美元利率与中国资产荒并存下的中债、人民币与A股红利锚校准 (2026-07-11)",
          "summary": "全球宏观研究报告：高美元利率与中国资产荒并存下的中债、人民币与A股红利锚校准 (2026-07-11)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dc59162fc728/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "CVX",
        "XOM"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-307b7fe2cb",
      "title": "美联储7月两难：Warsh鹰派点阵图 vs 开裂的劳动力市场与消退的伊朗油价冲击",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储7月两难：Warsh鹰派点阵图 vs 开裂的劳动力市场与消退的伊朗油价冲击",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-307b7fe2cb/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "油价-CPI 分布与 Warsh Fed 反应函数（2026-07-11）",
          "summary": "油价-CPI 分布与 Warsh Fed 反应函数（2026-07-11）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e90596c17ca2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
        "0883.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a3440bf2a4",
      "title": "中东停火信号下的油价风险应如何重定价",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中东停火信号下的油价风险应如何重定价",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a3440bf2a4/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "油价-CPI 分布与 Warsh Fed 反应函数（2026-07-11）",
          "summary": "油价-CPI 分布与 Warsh Fed 反应函数（2026-07-11）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e90596c17ca2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "SLB",
        "OXY"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e58a9e8746",
      "title": "日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e58a9e8746/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓压力测试：USD/JPY 破位路径与亚洲外汇暴露",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 立场：stress-test 机构工作日：2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore）·",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-511266124057/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d74ae315e8",
      "title": "当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d74ae315e8/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓压力测试：USD/JPY 破位路径与亚洲外汇暴露",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 立场：stress-test 机构工作日：2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore）·",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-511266124057/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-5c45703323",
      "title": "AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5c45703323/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI 基础设施 capex 订单、数据中心电力约束与半导体 beta 的可持续性",
          "summary": "AI 基础设施 capex 订单、数据中心电力约束与半导体 beta 的可持续性",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7357afd4d773/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "NVDA",
        "AMD",
        "MU",
        "AVGO",
        "TSM",
        "000660.KS"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-69025fa4b4",
      "title": "驱动对冲阶梯的 Fed / BoJ / ECB 政策路径",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 驱动对冲阶梯的 Fed / BoJ / ECB 政策路径",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-69025fa4b4/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8433a252bbd2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-eefbf1a467",
      "title": "中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-eefbf1a467/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-84f3c6b77c4a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-08b70be7bf",
      "title": "在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08b70be7bf/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "国产算力物理建设的约束定位：电力/电网瓶颈 vs. 芯片供给瓶颈",
          "summary": "日期： 2026-07-11 作者： AI基础设施分析师 (AI Infrastructure Analyst) 主题： 国产算力物理建设的约束定位：电力/电网瓶颈 vs. 芯片供给瓶颈 立场： 支持 (Support)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0752554684f1/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "002028.SZ",
        "ETN",
        "600089.SH",
        "601179.SH",
        "688676.SH",
        "VST"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-8ca3d181f3",
      "title": "能源价格重心的下移提供了一次缓和全球“滞胀”压力的正向供给冲击，虽然成功消解了美欧央行的强行加息风险，但在低储蓄率、物流滞后与-273…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源价格重心的下移提供了一次缓和全球“滞胀”压力的正向供给冲击，虽然成功消解了美欧央行的强行加息风险，但在低储蓄率、物流滞后与-273…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8ca3d181f3/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 7月CPI与FOMC前的跨资产配置表达",
          "summary": "截至2026-07-11，本报告片综合并支持研究记录01：7月加息不是基准情景，但9月加息风险仍然值得交易。6月FOMC维持联邦基金目标区间在3.50%-3.75% [S1]，7月会议定于7月28-29日、9月SEP会议定于9...",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-c951442d7f",
      "title": "日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c951442d7f/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓压力测试：USD/JPY 破位路径与亚洲外汇暴露",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 立场：stress-test 机构工作日：2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore）·",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-511266124057/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-fe66302bd9",
      "title": "美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fe66302bd9/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-84f3c6b77c4a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-db4939d8d8",
      "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db4939d8d8/",
      "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708",
      "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电网与BTM双重卡口下，科技巨头资本开支向算力产出转化的宏观估值重估风险，及向“核电直连”逃逸...",
          "summary": "电网与BTM双重卡口下，科技巨头资本开支向算力产出转化的宏观估值重估风险，及向“核电直连”逃逸的制度套利红利可持续性",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d5dc0bf065fa/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "CEG",
        "VST",
        "ETN"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-27c1e713e6",
      "title": "日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-27c1e713e6/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓压力测试：USD/JPY 破位路径与亚洲外汇暴露",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 立场：stress-test 机构工作日：2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore）·",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-511266124057/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3bf2a3ec55",
      "title": "请先统一事实读数与压力情景：CNH HIBOR 12.00%和USD/JPY 162.18应否进入今日基准？若仅为情景，A股β≈0.28…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请先统一事实读数与压力情景：CNH HIBOR 12.00%和USD/JPY 162.18应否进入今日基准？若仅为情景，A股β≈0.28…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3bf2a3ec55/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8433a252bbd2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-413f4aecc1",
      "title": "长江电力等红利拥挤度处于95%历史极值，且股息率利差压缩至历史低点，而在跨境分段生产解禁及创新药商业化兑现下医药板块大涨，这是否标志着A…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 长江电力等红利拥挤度处于95%历史极值，且股息率利差压缩至历史低点，而在跨境分段生产解禁及创新药商业化兑现下医药板块大涨，这是否标志着A…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-413f4aecc1/",
      "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e",
      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "资产荒体制与年中理财赎回冲击下，A股电力红利锚的持续性",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 作者角色： 全球宏观分析师 研究院工作日： 2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore） · 对研究记录05的立场： 压力测试与细化性修正",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d71d7cdf0ddd/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "600905.SH",
        "DUK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-7a2fc614c1",
      "title": "在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a2fc614c1/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电网设备出海腿的拥挤度与资金流压力测试：th T07三腿信号下的加减仓纪律",
          "summary": "电网设备出海腿的拥挤度与资金流压力测试：th T07三腿信号下的加减仓纪律",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9d5f6c2fd27e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "002028.SZ",
        "600089.SH",
        "601179.SH",
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "CEG",
        "VST"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-54a65a88ba",
      "title": "请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-54a65a88ba/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8433a252bbd2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "UUP",
        "FXI",
        "2800.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-11523cabbd",
      "title": "熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-11523cabbd/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-84f3c6b77c4a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-94e0c46a69",
      "title": "USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-94e0c46a69/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-84f3c6b77c4a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-979591277f",
      "title": "能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-979591277f/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-84f3c6b77c4a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f9ce8d294d",
      "title": "人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f9ce8d294d/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 外汇策略卡：人民币中间价、离岸CNH流动性与USD/CNY 7.30–7.35防线",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-84f3c6b77c4a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-250964b5dc",
      "title": "强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-250964b5dc/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 7月CPI和FOMC前的USD/CNH上行与USD/JPY下行凸性组合",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8433a252bbd2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-820459973e",
      "title": "在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-820459973e/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "压力测试\"绕过电网\"论点：PJM并网延迟、变压器短缺，以及 BTM 气电 / FOTM 核电双轨方案",
          "summary": "压力测试\"绕过电网\"论点：PJM并网延迟、变压器短缺，以及 BTM 气电 / FOTM 核电双轨方案",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b3298999753f/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
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        "002028.SZ",
        "ETN",
        "601179.SH",
        "600089.SH",
        "CEG",
        "VST"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-2a7c29557b",
      "title": "在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2a7c29557b/",
      "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87",
      "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI 基础设施 capex 订单、数据中心电力约束与半导体 beta 的可持续性",
          "summary": "AI 基础设施 capex 订单、数据中心电力约束与半导体 beta 的可持续性",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7357afd4d773/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "AMD",
        "VRT"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-c71e511c1c",
      "title": "电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c71e511c1c/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI基础设施再定价：结构性Beta向电力、内存与算力转售的迁移 (2026-07-11)",
          "summary": "AI基础设施再定价：结构性Beta向电力、内存与算力转售的迁移 (2026-07-11)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6a6adb146462/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "ETN",
        "PWR"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-d8170c3a35",
      "title": "近海资本开支与设备利用率驱动油服盈利弹性",
      "titleEn": "Offshore capex and equipment utilization drive oilfield-service earnings leverage",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d8170c3a35/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 68,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "石油、天然气产业链研究队列 - 工作日期 2026-07-11",
          "summary": "元数据：research note，分析师 energy-analyst，立场 synthesize，权威工作日期 2026-07-11，。",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-07f4c40146cc/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
        "CVX",
        "XOM",
        "0883.HK",
        "COP",
        "2883.HK",
        "SLB",
        "OXY"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-ffa474a3f2",
      "title": "端侧 AI 与 Agent 桌面正在把算力竞争从云端扩展到芯片、OS 与消费电子供应链",
      "titleEn": "Edge AI and agent desktops are extending compute competition from cloud to chips, OS, and consumer-electronics supply...",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ffa474a3f2/",
      "laneId": "lane_74d352e86208",
      "lane": "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/edge-ai-and-agent-desktop-cycle/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 68,
      "supports": 0,
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      "neutral": 0,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "手机产业链（新华财经-手机产业链）——低覆盖扫描",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： tmt-analyst（TMT行业分析师） 工作日期： 2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore） · 立场： initial · 本轮根主题： 产业链调研：新华财经-手机产业链（30 日激活率 4.7%, 5/107...",
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        "AMD",
        "ARM",
        "QCOM",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0",
      "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层",
      "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/",
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      "conviction": 67,
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          "title": "电力交付瓶颈与云巨头 GPU 集群 ROI - 工作日期 2026-07-11",
          "summary": "电力交付瓶颈与云巨头 GPU 集群 ROI - 工作日期 2026-07-11",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b24b83a1cefc/",
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        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL",
        "TSM",
        "AVGO",
        "AAPL",
        "TSLA"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-34ed317472",
      "title": "A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-34ed317472/",
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      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
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      "events": [
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          "title": "A股强制去杠杆监测框架：融资余额、陆股通持仓与ETF赎回的触发阈值",
          "summary": "报告工作日期： 2026-07-11 (亚洲/新加坡) 负责席位： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) 研究 stance： 压力测试 (Stress-test) 关联研究来源：已归档",
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "510300.SH",
        "512100.SH"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-40b8638803",
      "title": "全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…",
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          "summary": "AI 基础设施 capex 订单、数据中心电力约束与半导体 beta 的可持续性",
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      "title": "随着AI算力扩建撞上电力电网并网物理速度墙，变压器与硅钢（GOES）结构性缺口高达30%，投产延迟WACC损失巨大，形成约35倍的经济杠…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 随着AI算力扩建撞上电力电网并网物理速度墙，变压器与硅钢（GOES）结构性缺口高达30%，投产延迟WACC损失巨大，形成约35倍的经济杠…",
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      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 0,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "国产算力物理建设的约束定位：电力/电网瓶颈 vs. 芯片供给瓶颈",
          "summary": "日期： 2026-07-11 作者： AI基础设施分析师 (AI Infrastructure Analyst) 主题： 国产算力物理建设的约束定位：电力/电网瓶颈 vs. 芯片供给瓶颈 立场： 支持 (Support)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0752554684f1/",
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "002028.SZ",
        "ETN",
        "601179.SH",
        "600089.SH",
        "688676.SH",
        "CEG"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a10279b001",
      "title": "面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…",
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      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
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      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "并网延期对闲置GPU集群的冲击：量化云厂商资本开支执行力与2026/2027算力转售毛利率",
          "summary": "并网延期对闲置GPU集群的冲击：量化云厂商资本开支执行力与2026/2027算力转售毛利率",
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "TSM",
        "AMD",
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      "title": "GPU、HBM 与先进封装决定 AI 资本开支供给节奏",
      "titleEn": "GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging shape the AI capex supply cycle",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8bbbcdf5a4/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
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      "conviction": 65,
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          "title": "AI 基础设施 capex 订单、数据中心电力约束与半导体 beta 的可持续性",
          "summary": "AI 基础设施 capex 订单、数据中心电力约束与半导体 beta 的可持续性",
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        "AVGO",
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        "GOOGL",
        "AMZN"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b6f59efde4",
      "title": "包装油占比与原料顺价驱动利润率修复",
      "titleEn": "Packaged-oil mix and input-cost pass-through drive margin recovery",
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      "laneId": "lane_13d7ced85300",
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      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-processing-and-input-cost-transmission/",
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      "conviction": 65,
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          "title": "食品加工产业链调研：中下游结构分化、B2B特化与跨链溢出风险（日期锚定：2026-07-11）",
          "summary": "食品加工产业链调研：中下游结构分化、B2B特化与跨链溢出风险（日期锚定：2026-07-11）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1d196be06e11/",
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        "600298.SH",
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        "300973.SZ",
        "603317.SH",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-4e383ee09c",
      "title": "2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。",
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          "summary": "AI 基础设施 capex 订单、数据中心电力约束与半导体 beta 的可持续性",
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "TSM",
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      "id": "thesis-4f2d0121d3",
      "title": "高利润率出口材料企业需等待利润修复确认",
      "titleEn": "High-margin export materials require confirmation of profit recovery",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f2d0121d3/",
      "laneId": "lane_7e439482cbef",
      "lane": "中国出口制造/利润率",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-export-manufacturing-and-margins/",
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      "conviction": 64,
      "supports": 0,
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      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 [S0]：关税回吐阶段的人民币管理区间与出口商利润率敏感性",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 [S0]：关税回吐阶段的人民币管理区间与出口商利润率敏感性",
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        "000333.SZ",
        "600900.SH",
        "002139.SZ",
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    {
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      "title": "新一代信息技术国产替代要从信创叙事进入算力、软件与安全订单验证",
      "titleEn": "Domestic IT substitution must move from policy narrative to compute, software, and security order proof",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a6599a3f5/",
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          "title": "存储超级周期的跨链配额拉锯：手机链模组 vs AI 服务器 HBM，及国产 DRAM 替代跑道",
          "summary": "存储超级周期的跨链配额拉锯：手机链模组 vs AI 服务器 HBM，及国产 DRAM 替代跑道",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ac032395b6b0/",
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        "688981.SH",
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        "300308.SZ",
        "NVDA",
        "000977.SZ",
        "688008.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "688111.SH"
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    {
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      "titleEn": "HBM4, CoWoS, and backside power are becoming serial gates for the AI-server demand curve",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5d7a79c82/",
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          "summary": "AI 基础设施 capex 订单、数据中心电力约束与半导体 beta 的可持续性",
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        "AVGO",
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    },
    {
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      "title": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证",
      "titleEn": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证",
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      "conviction": 58,
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      "title": "猪周期、粮食与农产品价格决定中国低通胀修复的弹性",
      "titleEn": "Hog cycle, grain, and agricultural prices define the elasticity of China's low-inflation repair",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d4473d35e5/",
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          "summary": "2026-07-11 研究报告：国内化肥价格脱钩对种植成本及粮食安全调控政策的影响",
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    {
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      "title": "AI 资本开支通过能源、设备和利率进入通胀定价",
      "titleEn": "AI capex enters inflation pricing through energy, equipment, and rates",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-075017003b/",
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          "summary": "研究记录 05 · asset-allocator · 工作日期 2026-07-11（Asia/Singapore）· 立场 synthesize",
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      "titleEn": "CPO, optical interconnect, and copper links define rent migration inside AI clusters",
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          "summary": "AI 基础设施 capex 订单、数据中心电力约束与半导体 beta 的可持续性",
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        "NVDA",
        "AVGO",
        "META",
        "COHR",
        "LITE",
        "300394.SZ",
        "MRVL",
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        "MSFT"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-985b80b224",
      "title": "具身智能机器人进入 BOM 降本与执行器供给验证期",
      "titleEn": "Embodied AI robotics enters the BOM deflation and actuator supply verification phase",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-985b80b224/",
      "laneId": "lane_a724a01f8428",
      "lane": "具身智能/机器人零部件",
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 [S0]：USD/CNY 区间下有定价权出口商与国产替代制造商的子行业映射",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 [S0]：USD/CNY 区间下有定价权出口商与国产替代制造商的子行业映射",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50bdd8a85a90/",
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        "300124.SZ",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-3d421524cd",
      "title": "油价地缘底线决定再通胀与降息交易的安全边际",
      "titleEn": "The geopolitical oil floor defines the margin of safety for disinflation and rate-cut trades",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3d421524cd/",
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "油价-CPI 分布与 Warsh Fed 反应函数（2026-07-11）",
          "summary": "油价-CPI 分布与 Warsh Fed 反应函数（2026-07-11）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e90596c17ca2/",
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        "CME",
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        "600900.SH",
        "0857.HK",
        "COP",
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      "titleEn": "Food processing opportunities are shifting from food inflation to input volatility, channel inventory, and B-side sta...",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-51c6d833ae/",
      "laneId": "lane_13d7ced85300",
      "lane": "食品加工/成本传导",
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      "events": [
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          "summary": "食品加工产业链调研：中下游结构分化、B2B特化与跨链溢出风险（日期锚定：2026-07-11）",
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        "002847.SZ",
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      "title": "中国出口制造的胜负手从低价扩张转向利润率、合规和本地化",
      "titleEn": "Chinese export manufacturing is shifting from low-price expansion to margin, compliance, and localization",
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      "laneId": "lane_7e439482cbef",
      "lane": "中国出口制造/利润率",
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        {
          "title": "2026-07-11 [S0]：关税回吐阶段的人民币管理区间与出口商利润率敏感性",
          "summary": "2026-07-11 [S0]：关税回吐阶段的人民币管理区间与出口商利润率敏感性",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5e0808370894/",
          "stance": "risk",
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        "002139.SZ",
        "002475.SZ",
        "2020.HK"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-9e97140446",
      "title": "中国电力设备出海进入订单质量与政策筛选期",
      "titleEn": "Chinese power-equipment exports enter an order-quality and policy filter phase",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9e97140446/",
      "laneId": "lane_e4b72516d71a",
      "lane": "中国电力设备出海",
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        {
          "title": "电力价差（Power Spread）：从 SPCX 指数集中度到 time-to-power 稀缺租金的完整持仓映射",
          "summary": "电力价差（Power Spread）：从 SPCX 指数集中度到 time-to-power 稀缺租金的完整持仓映射",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-88acf72f653e/",
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      "title": "美联储路径仍是全球资产再定价的总阀门",
      "titleEn": "The Fed path remains the master valve for global asset repricing",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a803fa3312/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
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      "events": [
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          "title": "黏性通胀与7月美联储按兵不动情形下的跨资产配置",
          "summary": "· 分析师： 首席策略师 工作日期： 2026-07-11（亚洲/新加坡） · 立场： 支持（既有研究记录的\"7月按兵不动\"基准情形） 主题： 黏性通胀与7月美联储按兵不动情形下的跨资产配置 问题...",
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      "id": "thesis-1aaa752ed4",
      "title": "AI 电力与电网瓶颈仍是基础设施主线",
      "titleEn": "AI power and grid bottlenecks remain the infrastructure core",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-1aaa752ed4/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
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          "summary": "全球 Time-to-Power Beta → A股电网与发电设备出口链：业绩弹性、估值天花板与风格轮动 — 工作日期 2026-07-11",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-be7b32303bb0/",
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      "title": "风险核查与证据质量是主题交易的必要过滤器",
      "titleEn": "Risk verification and evidence quality are necessary filters for theme trades",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e26ef69f73/",
      "laneId": "lane_ccbe817778d1",
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          "title": "Warsh 领导下的联储鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹，撞上一位\"信誉优先\"的新主席",
          "summary": "Warsh 领导下的联储鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹，撞上一位\"信誉优先\"的新主席",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a1bfc1f84ab7/",
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      "title": "纺织服装出口链的 Alpha 取决于棉价、库存周期、品牌折扣与合规转移",
      "titleEn": "Textile and apparel export alpha depends on cotton, inventory cycles, brand discounting, and compliance relocation",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d1c60d5af6/",
      "laneId": "lane_856b47b8b1d9",
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        "两融",
        "人民币"
      ],
      "count": 11
    },
    {
      "id": "semis-memory",
      "labelZh": "半导体、存储与光互联",
      "labelEn": "Semis, memory and optical",
      "color": "yellow",
      "keywords": [
        "半导体",
        "hbm",
        "存储",
        "memory",
        "cpo",
        "光模块",
        "先进封装",
        "micron",
        "mu"
      ],
      "count": 7
    },
    {
      "id": "risk-portfolio",
      "labelZh": "风险与组合",
      "labelEn": "Risk and portfolio",
      "color": "red",
      "keywords": [
        "风险",
        "组合",
        "对冲",
        "波动率",
        "期权",
        "portfolio",
        "hedge",
        "volatility",
        "risk budget"
      ],
      "count": 1
    }
  ],
  "analystCounts": [
    {
      "label": "未识别",
      "count": 283
    }
  ],
  "categoryCounts": [
    {
      "label": "其他",
      "count": 283
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "contemporaneous": true,
    "note": "This day view is assembled from public, date-stamped AI Institute research contracts."
  }
}