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[S1]，股票代码为 1274.HK [S1]；公司总部及中国主要营业地点位于江苏省苏州...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-ff311ea75ca9", "title": "08 风险评估", "date": "2026-07-10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ff311ea75ca9/", "analyst": "深研主编", "analystId": "research-editor", "category": "综合编审", "excerpt": "本报告已读取工作区内 01 公司概况.md 、 02 财务数据.md 、 03 行业定位.md 、 04 催化剂.md 、 05 三表模型.md 、 06 盈利预测.md 和 07 估值分析.md 共 7 个上游 Markdown 文件[自测算]。风...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-da227c85e412", "title": "12 交叉验证", "date": "2026-07-10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-da227c85e412/", "analyst": "深研主编", "analystId": "research-editor", "category": "综合编审", "excerpt": "本次复核已读取工作区内全部上游 Markdown 文件，包括 01 公司概况.md 、 02 财务数据.md 、 03 行业定位.md 、 04 催化剂.md 、 05 三表模型.md 、 06 盈利预测.md 、 07 估值分析.md 、 08 风...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-7d414b111d57", "title": "深度研究报告", 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知行汽车科技（苏州）股份有限公司 [S1] 报表货币 RMB million，除百分比、天数、倍数另有注明外 [S1] 历史基准 2025A 使用截至 2025 年 12...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "综合编审" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-905decff93bc", "title": "40/25/25/10 杠铃治理手册发布前 QA 审计", "date": "2026-07-10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-905decff93bc/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究记录 · 角色： QA 主管（reviewer） · 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 工作日： 2026-07-10（Asia/Singapore） · 选定之手： codex 根议题： 信用低配后：久期对冲还是通胀保护 审计对...", "tags": [ "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-e1f6121e67bd", "title": "research thread Brief", "date": "2026-07-10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e1f6121e67bd/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] - Shared Agent Route session: [source-id-redacted] - Root topic: 产业链调研：新能源汽车与智能网联汽车（30 日激活率 2...", "tags": [ "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "archive" }, { "id": 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催化剂.md 、 05 三表模型.md 、 06 盈利预测.md [自测算]。估值基准日采用 2026-07-10 的最近收盘价，原...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "archive" }, { "id": "archive-6218ec0248ef", "title": "000887.SZ 估值分析", "date": "2026-07-10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6218ec0248ef/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "已读取本地前序文件： 01 公司概况.md 、 02 财务数据.md 、 03 行业定位.md 、 04 催化剂.md 、 05 三表模型.md 、 06 盈利预测.md [自测算：本地文件读取记录]。本报告仅围绕 000887.SZ 进行...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "archive" }, { "id": "archive-39f661ba55ef", "title": "估值分析", "date": "2026-07-10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-39f661ba55ef/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "本报告已读取工作区内 01 公司概况.md 、 02 财务数据.md 、 03 行业定位.md 、 04 催化剂.md 、 05 三表模型.md 、 06 盈利预测.md 全部上游 Markdown 文件 [自测算：本步骤在本地读取上述 6...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "archive" }, { "id": "archive-95ba62078d51", "title": "估值分析", "date": "2026-07-10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-95ba62078d51/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "本报告已读取工作区内前序 Markdown 文件： 01 公司概况.md 、 02 财务数据.md 、 03 行业定位.md 、 04 催化剂.md 、 05 三表模型.md 、 06 盈利预测.md [自测算：本地文件读取记录]。估值基准...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "archive" }, { "id": "archive-12a48cb9bd2f", "title": "美股板块轮动日报（2026-07-10）", "date": "2026-07-10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-12a48cb9bd2f/", "analyst": "首席策略师", "analystId": "chief-strategist", "category": "权益策略", "excerpt": "核心摘要 以 shell 日期 2026-07-10 为锚，本报告对应数据源校验 work date=2026-07-10 的美股隔夜收盘。今日结构偏 risk-on，但不是全面进攻：科技是最清晰的相对强势，新闻口径显示 S&P 500 信...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-1bb2924b3160", "title": "8月专项债项目表、地市招标与财政支付节奏：一套日度跟踪协议", "date": "2026-07-10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1bb2924b3160/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） 工作日期： 2026-07-25，Asia/Singapore · 立场： 压力测试 问题： 2026-08-01 之后，广东、安徽、浙江、江苏、山东、湖南哪些地市发...", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观", "A股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "archive" }, { "id": "archive-e8c894bd2e60", "title": "04 催化剂", "date": "2026-07-10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e8c894bd2e60/", "analyst": "深研主编", "analystId": "research-editor", "category": "综合编审", "excerpt": "1274.HK 的近端催化剂主线是“2026 年订单与量产恢复能否兑现为收入、毛利率和亏损收窄”。截至 2026 年 4 月 30 日止四个月，公司收入约 RMB400.00 million，同比增长 162.55%，毛利率 9.32%...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-caf7d5f88493", "title": "NFLX 8卡研究会话 — 最终合规与数据一致性审计", "date": "2026-07-10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-caf7d5f88493/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "· 研究质量主管（Reviewer）· 工作日期：2026-07-10（Asia/Singapore）· 立场：synthesize 根主题： Netflix社交端声量暴增：短视频与并购传闻是自救还是陷阱？ 工作区说明： 审计时磁盘上仅...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-21cd160a83df", "title": "前序研究研究报告 — 2026-07-10", "date": "2026-07-10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-21cd160a83df/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日 2026-07-10，本报告对前序研究成果进行 综合（Synthesize）。在 2026-07-09 A股科技与芯片板块急涨（如中芯国际上涨 13.74% 、海光信息上涨 5.97% 、寒武纪上涨 8.59% 、北方...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-abb18acd24bb", "title": "688326.SH 估值分析", "date": "2026-07-10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-abb18acd24bb/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "本报告已读取本地上游文件 01 公司概况.md 、 02 财务数据.md 、 03 行业定位.md 、 04 催化剂.md 、 05 三表模型.md 、 06 盈利预测.md [自测算]。估值基准采用上游三表模型与盈利预测：2026E...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "A股" ], "sourceKind": "archive" }, { "id": "archive-d5645fb5ed66", "title": "美国广告周期与家庭订阅疲劳对 Netflix 广告套餐变现的宏观约束", "date": "2026-07-10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d5645fb5ed66/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro 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"archive-103f5b3a2942", "title": "压力测试：电力设备与温控出海链的机构筹码拥挤度 vs. 估值安全边际", "date": "2026-07-10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-103f5b3a2942/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师： 首席策略师 · 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） - 工作日： 2026-07-10（Asia/Singapore） · 根议题： A股硬科技——结构性切换还是拥挤反弹 - 问题： 在资金重配电力设...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-a4278bd8f272", "title": "000887.SZ 投资论点", "date": "2026-07-10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a4278bd8f272/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "000887.SZ 的投资逻辑不是单纯的汽车零部件周期反弹，而是“成熟汽车零部件现金流底座 + 智能底盘/热管理订单兑现 + 机器人/液冷新业务期权”的组合 [S1][S3][S5]。基准情景下，2026E/2027E/202...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "archive" }, { "id": "archive-842d06f0ec3b", "title": "投资论点", "date": "2026-07-10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-842d06f0ec3b/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "600801.SH 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"discussions": [ { "title": "A股硬科技：结构性切换还是拥挤反弹", "question": "科创50单日+8.41%后，团队应把硬科技升为中期主线，还是在两融、广度、ETF申赎确认前按拥挤反弹处理？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "Netflix社交端声量暴增：短视频与并购传闻是自救还是陷阱？", "question": "Netflix将第三方短视频接入UI是破解订阅见顶的妙招，还是摊薄品牌价值的妥协？在大量内部人减持背景下，散户追高买入是否安全？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "主题研究员", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "信用低配后：久期对冲还是通胀保护", "question": "在US IG 75bp、US HY 274bp、Euro HY 258bp且9月加息25bp概率约55%的背景下，信用低配资金应转向5-7年主权债，还是转向现金、期权和通胀保护？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "油价冲击为何没有引发典型避险？", "question": "这是短期地缘头寸挤压，还是会把“软着陆+AI增长”的权益叙事重新定价为通胀再加速？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "中国大模型训练/推理双轨制下的生态撕裂与算力瓶颈", "question": "北京限制 H200 仅用于训练并强制推理端使用国产芯片，是否会实质性拉大中国大模型与海外的推理性能差距？ Prior related institute work to acknowledge and BUI...", "status": "active", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 7, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "半导体板块背离：中美散户情绪分化与国产替代逻辑的成色", "question": "面对美股半导体因算力过剩担忧回调，国内雪球散户大举抄底半导体ETF，国产替代能否支撑A股芯片板块实现周期性脱钩？", "status": "active", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 3, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "美股反弹与期权套保及利率极值的跨资产分歧", "question": "在标普500认沽/认购比率维持在1.12、MOVE指数高企以及杠杆基金对SOFR期货做空仓位创历史新高的背景下，如何评估当前美股反弹的可持续性？", "status": "running", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 2, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI内存再融资窗口是否延长AI交易", "question": "SK Hynix以每ADR 49募资约$26.5B且需求超过7倍，是否说明AI内存与HBM供给链仍能获得低资本成本，从而支撑Micron/SK Hynix/ASML等链条继续扩张，还是这反而是AI...", "status": "active", "analyst": "主题研究员", "noteCount": 1, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" } ], "thesisEvents": [ { "id": "thesis-fe66302bd9", "title": "美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fe66302bd9/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 2, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "USD/CNH 6.87 阈值后的动态套保与离岸美元流动性监控", "summary": "报告日期：2026-07-10（亚洲/新加坡工作日）[S1] 分析师：全球宏观分析师（global-macro） 研究记录 立场：压力测试（对 既有研究记录\"仅套保 50%\" 基准的压力测试） 本会话根议题：油...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-efc5de9e4f20/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-10 策略研究记录：39%债券仓位内的久期结构与USD/CNH套保", "summary": "2026-07-10 策略研究记录：39%债券仓位内的久期结构与USD/CNH套保", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-47b72f8b3252/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-10最终统一房观：油价冲击、离岸美元与carry尾部", "summary": "报告日期：2026-07-10，亚洲/新加坡工作日 [S0] 分析师：全球宏观分析师（global-macro） 研究记录 [S0] 立场：综合 根议题：油价冲击为何没有引发典型避险？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd31eb14bb83/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d8170c3a35", "title": "近海资本开支与设备利用率驱动油服盈利弹性", "titleEn": "Offshore capex and equipment utilization drive oilfield-service earnings leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d8170c3a35/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 2, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2883.HK 公司概况", "summary": "2883.HK 对应中海油田服务股份有限公司（China Oilfield Services Limited，简称“中海油服”或“COSL”），公司 H 股在香港联合交易所上市，股票代码为 2883，A 股在上海证券交易所上市，股票...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-35c211a2cff4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2883.HK 财务数据回顾", "summary": "项目 口径 --- --- 研究对象 2883.HK，中海油田服务股份有限公司（China Oilfield Services Limited）[S1] 主表期间 2023 年、2024 年、2025 年 [S0] 主表币种 人民币；FMP 预取数据以 B 表示十...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a984c08ef9f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "A股策略卡：油价冲击、“三桶油”抱团与散户/主力割裂 — 2026-07-10", "summary": "A股策略卡：油价冲击、“三桶油”抱团与散户/主力割裂 — 2026-07-10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b7c123bd0817/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CVX", "XOM", "0883.HK", "COP", "2883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3cb5657bb3", "title": "智能驾驶供应商拐点取决于定点转量产和毛利率修复", "titleEn": "The smart-driving supplier inflection depends on program conversion and margin recovery", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cb5657bb3/", "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da", "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 2, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "06 盈利预测", "summary": "本报告已读取 01 公司概况.md 、 02 财务数据.md 、 03 行业定位.md 、 04 催化剂.md 和 05 三表模型.md [自测算]，盈利预测基准情景承接 05 三表模型.md 的三表模型：2026E 收入为 RMB2,740.00...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2c9041bb9300/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "02 财务数据", "summary": "项目 说明 --- --- 研究对象 1274.HK [S1] 公司名称 iMotion Automotive Technology (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. Class H [S1] 报表币种 HKD [S1] 主财务口径 收入、毛利、经营利润、净利润、资产、债务...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2cba20c8495c/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "深度研究报告", "summary": "项目 结论 --- --- 股票代码 1274.HK [S1] 公司名称 知行汽车科技（苏州）股份有限公司 [S1] 投资评级 买入（buy）[自测算] 当前价格 HK$3.24，日期为 2026 年 7 月 9 日 [S5] 12 个月目标价 HK...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7d414b111d57/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSLA", "NVDA", "GOOGL", "1274.HK", "002594.SZ", "XPEV" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d03c2555a8", "title": "美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d03c2555a8/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略卡：油价冲击、“三桶油”抱团与散户/主力割裂 — 2026-07-10", "summary": "A股策略卡：油价冲击、“三桶油”抱团与散户/主力割裂 — 2026-07-10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b7c123bd0817/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "原油监测：WTI/布伦特、OPEC+、库存", "summary": "截至日期：2026-07-22（系统日期锚 锚定）。本报告中的“今日/上周/上一交易日”均按 2026-07-22 解析。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ba01a34ab2ad/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-950a54ea98", "title": "保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-950a54ea98/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "USD/CNH 6.87 阈值后的动态套保与离岸美元流动性监控", "summary": "报告日期：2026-07-10（亚洲/新加坡工作日）[S1] 分析师：全球宏观分析师（global-macro） 研究记录 立场：压力测试（对 既有研究记录\"仅套保 50%\" 基准的压力测试） 本会话根议题：油...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-efc5de9e4f20/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-10 全球宏观卡：5-7年主权债子仓跨 USD/EUR/JPY 分散，以及 JPY carry unwind 尾部对冲", "summary": "2026-07-10 全球宏观卡：5-7年主权债子仓跨 USD/EUR/JPY 分散，以及 JPY carry unwind 尾部对冲", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ee77a9f33c64/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-6ae5e48f60", "title": "折算率冲击目前更像高估值拥挤交易的局部去杠杆，而非已经形成全市场融资平仓链条。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 折算率冲击目前更像高估值拥挤交易的局部去杠杆，而非已经形成全市场融资平仓链条。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6ae5e48f60/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "专题研究报告：A股两融与机构仓位的尾部去杠杆风险及对出海设备股的非对称冲击", "summary": "专题研究报告：A股两融与机构仓位的尾部去杠杆风险及对出海设备股的非对称冲击", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-116be2368745/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股权益策略报告：B端食品加工链龙头（安井食品、千味央厨）在A股市场的筹码结构与两融去杠杆风险...", "summary": "A股权益策略报告：B端食品加工链龙头（安井食品、千味央厨）在A股市场的筹码结构与两融去杠杆风险压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d556ba592bba/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2ee6c1cf01", "title": "39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2ee6c1cf01/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-10 策略研究记录：39%债券仓位内的久期结构与USD/CNH套保", "summary": "2026-07-10 策略研究记录：39%债券仓位内的久期结构与USD/CNH套保", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-47b72f8b3252/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "USD/CNH 6.87 阈值后的动态套保与离岸美元流动性监控", "summary": "报告日期：2026-07-10（亚洲/新加坡工作日）[S1] 分析师：全球宏观分析师（global-macro） 研究记录 立场：压力测试（对 既有研究记录\"仅套保 50%\" 基准的压力测试） 本会话根议题：油...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-efc5de9e4f20/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-db003202fc", "title": "国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db003202fc/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "USD/CNH 6.87 阈值后的动态套保与离岸美元流动性监控", "summary": "报告日期：2026-07-10（亚洲/新加坡工作日）[S1] 分析师：全球宏观分析师（global-macro） 研究记录 立场：压力测试（对 既有研究记录\"仅套保 50%\" 基准的压力测试） 本会话根议题：油...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-efc5de9e4f20/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-10 策略研究记录：39%债券仓位内的久期结构与USD/CNH套保", "summary": "2026-07-10 策略研究记录：39%债券仓位内的久期结构与USD/CNH套保", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-47b72f8b3252/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-54a65a88ba", "title": "请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-54a65a88ba/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "USD/CNH 6.87 阈值后的动态套保与离岸美元流动性监控", "summary": "报告日期：2026-07-10（亚洲/新加坡工作日）[S1] 分析师：全球宏观分析师（global-macro） 研究记录 立场：压力测试（对 既有研究记录\"仅套保 50%\" 基准的压力测试） 本会话根议题：油...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-efc5de9e4f20/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-07-10 策略研究记录：39%债券仓位内的久期结构与USD/CNH套保", "summary": "2026-07-10 策略研究记录：39%债券仓位内的久期结构与USD/CNH套保", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-47b72f8b3252/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "UUP", "FXI", "2800.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-029ce03da1", "title": "MSCI 调整窗口是被动资金与主动减仓相互博弈的流动性事件", "titleEn": "MSCI rebalance windows are liquidity events where passive demand meets active exits", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-029ce03da1/", "laneId": "lane_122bdfde6ea9", "lane": "指数调仓/被动资金事件", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/index-rebalance-and-passive-flow-events/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "专题研究报告：A股两融与机构仓位的尾部去杠杆风险及对出海设备股的非对称冲击", "summary": "专题研究报告：A股两融与机构仓位的尾部去杠杆风险及对出海设备股的非对称冲击", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-116be2368745/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股仪器仪表卫星篮子：资金面与流动性验证 — 2026-08-05", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-08-05（Asia/Singapore）。 看板 / 研究来源：已归档 / 03/10。 作者： ashare-strategist。 立场： synthesize。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dcab8648081c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0700.HK", "9988.HK", "KWEB", "300308.SZ", "510300.SH", "2800.HK", "0981.HK", "3690.HK", "600900.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9d3836cc07", "title": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "titleEn": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d3836cc07/", "laneId": "lane_008e3bd9306a", "lane": "AI 软件效率/生产率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-software-productivity/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 58, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-10｜超大规模厂商资本轮动：从消费内容到 AI 算力", "summary": "截至 2026-07-10，我对上一张卡的判断采取“综合”而非完全照单全收：微软是最清晰的“消费内容转向 AI 算力”案例，但 MSFT/AMZN/GOOGL/META 的共同模式更广、也更不字面。四家超大规模厂商都...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d4498144af06/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-07-10 [自测算] — 重型燃机、表后燃气发电与宏观资本开支-通胀传导", "summary": "2026-07-10 [自测算] — 重型燃机、表后燃气发电与宏观资本开支-通胀传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d8c957768a32/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "NVDA", "NOW", "CRM", "ADBE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-603a5f7966", "title": "A 股硬科技与科创50的复苏需要订单、融资盘和指数结构共振", "titleEn": "A-share hard tech and STAR50 recovery needs orders, margin positioning, and index structure to align", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-603a5f7966/", "laneId": "lane_4cc1e74d8e5f", "lane": "A股硬科技/科创50", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-hard-tech-and-star50/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 56, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究研究报告 — 2026-07-10", "summary": "截至研究所工作日 2026-07-10，本报告对前序研究成果进行 综合（Synthesize）。在 2026-07-09 A股科技与芯片板块急涨（如中芯国际上涨 13.74% 、海光信息上涨 5.97% 、寒武纪上涨 8.59% 、北方...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-21cd160a83df/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "A股硬科技：结构性切换还是拥挤反弹？", "summary": "A股硬科技：结构性切换还是拥挤反弹？ 研究记录 01 · 首席策略师 · 工作日 2026-07-10（亚洲/新加坡） · 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f8174369994c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "600900.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH", "300394.SZ", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e26ef69f73", "title": "风险核查与证据质量是主题交易的必要过滤器", "titleEn": "Risk verification and evidence quality are necessary filters for theme trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e26ef69f73/", "laneId": "lane_ccbe817778d1", "lane": "组合风控/证据质量", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/portfolio-risk-and-evidence-quality/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-10 全球宏观研究记录：信用低配后，久期对冲还是通胀保护？", "summary": "2026-07-10 全球宏观研究记录：信用低配后，久期对冲还是通胀保护？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a89d72aca7f6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "隔夜市场情绪与资金流向扫描 (2026-07-10)", "summary": "隔夜（2026-07-09）美股市场呈现显著的反弹态势，纳斯达克指数领涨，主要受到科技股和芯片板块走强的支撑。然而，底层跨资产情绪与资金流向指标却显示出强烈的防范与防御特征，形成鲜明的“跨资...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8e673aa47b81/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "CBOE", "IBKR", "VIRT", "SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-59f298ff36", "title": "在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-59f298ff36/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 84, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录 05：A股两融、北向、公募拥挤与ETF流动性重叠的行业清算阈值", "summary": "研究记录 05：A股两融、北向、公募拥挤与ETF流动性重叠的行业清算阈值 作者: 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 日期: 2026年7月12日 立场: 压力测试 ( stress-test )", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d9bb7a885f1d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bb46b0c3de", "title": "USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bb46b0c3de/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "USD/CNH 6.87 阈值后的动态套保与离岸美元流动性监控", "summary": "报告日期：2026-07-10（亚洲/新加坡工作日）[S1] 分析师：全球宏观分析师（global-macro） 研究记录 立场：压力测试（对 既有研究记录\"仅套保 50%\" 基准的压力测试） 本会话根议题：油...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-efc5de9e4f20/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4f541b33ff", "title": "美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f541b33ff/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "USD/CNH 6.87 阈值后的动态套保与离岸美元流动性监控", "summary": "报告日期：2026-07-10（亚洲/新加坡工作日）[S1] 分析师：全球宏观分析师（global-macro） 研究记录 立场：压力测试（对 既有研究记录\"仅套保 50%\" 基准的压力测试） 本会话根议题：油...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-efc5de9e4f20/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5a0bd732f3", "title": "A股杠铃策略应落地为“红利蓝筹压舱 + 硬科技成长进攻 + 轮动仓位调节”的三层结构，两融是成长端驱动力，ETF赎回和限售股解禁是仓位上限。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股杠铃策略应落地为“红利蓝筹压舱 + 硬科技成长进攻 + 轮动仓位调节”的三层结构，两融是成长端驱动力，ETF赎回和限售股解禁是仓位上限。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5a0bd732f3/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录 05：A股两融、北向、公募拥挤与ETF流动性重叠的行业清算阈值", "summary": "研究记录 05：A股两融、北向、公募拥挤与ETF流动性重叠的行业清算阈值 作者: 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 日期: 2026年7月12日 立场: 压力测试 ( stress-test )", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d9bb7a885f1d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "510300.SH", "300750.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-86be10e7fb", "title": "为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-86be10e7fb/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "人民币与亚洲FX是否确认美债/油价冲击？6.82–6.85 的突破是政策选择，而非市场裁决", "summary": "人民币与亚洲FX是否确认美债/油价冲击？6.82–6.85 的突破是政策选择，而非市场裁决", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0fba3e7d4157/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CVX", "XOM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d09a741710", "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d09a741710/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "公用事业行业研究报告：2026年下半年电力公用事业底仓的分红质量、电价传导与拥挤度风险压力测试", "summary": "公用事业行业研究报告：2026年下半年电力公用事业底仓的分红质量、电价传导与拥挤度风险压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-89fe582daf5b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-24cd0b5ff9", "title": "在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-24cd0b5ff9/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "能源与利率成本双重挤压：AI 算力基础设施的 Capex 韧性", "summary": "研究记录 · AI 基础设施分析师 · 工作日期：2026-07-10（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： stress-test（压力测试）· 关联机构观点： th T01、th T11、th p cfd084a4", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ac86840616ac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "GOOGL", "AMZN", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0e520ff02a", "title": "能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e520ff02a/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-10最终统一房观：油价冲击、离岸美元与carry尾部", "summary": "报告日期：2026-07-10，亚洲/新加坡工作日 [S0] 分析师：全球宏观分析师（global-macro） 研究记录 [S0] 立场：综合 根议题：油价冲击为何没有引发典型避险？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd31eb14bb83/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CVX", "XOM", "SLB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2e367ef854", "title": "美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2e367ef854/", "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08", "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-10 全球宏观报告：中国生产资料PPI再通胀能否传导至核心CPI？", "summary": "2026-07-10 全球宏观报告：中国生产资料PPI再通胀能否传导至核心CPI？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d6b2cf8e971/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "XLE", "XLU", "TLT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5be4c31f4e", "title": "6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5be4c31f4e/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "美联储新政架构与6月CPI数据发布前的政策两难与市场展望", "summary": "日期：2026年7月12日 作者：global-macro (全球宏观分析师) 官方基准工作日：2026-07-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1f8d7c4fb63e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c951442d7f", "title": "日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c951442d7f/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "USD/CNH 6.87 阈值后的动态套保与离岸美元流动性监控", "summary": "报告日期：2026-07-10（亚洲/新加坡工作日）[S1] 分析师：全球宏观分析师（global-macro） 研究记录 立场：压力测试（对 既有研究记录\"仅套保 50%\" 基准的压力测试） 本会话根议题：油...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-efc5de9e4f20/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3156277f22", "title": "哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3156277f22/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "USD/CNH 6.87 阈值后的动态套保与离岸美元流动性监控", "summary": "报告日期：2026-07-10（亚洲/新加坡工作日）[S1] 分析师：全球宏观分析师（global-macro） 研究记录 立场：压力测试（对 既有研究记录\"仅套保 50%\" 基准的压力测试） 本会话根议题：油...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-efc5de9e4f20/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e12bcc0d59", "title": "PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e12bcc0d59/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录 — PBOC分层防守下：境内流动性受益风格 vs. 仍受FX风险折价压制的A股风格", "summary": "研究记录 — PBOC分层防守下：境内流动性受益风格 vs. 仍受FX风险折价压制的A股风格 分析师：全球宏观分析师 日期：2026-08-08（新加坡时区） 立场：综合研判（synthesize）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5043e2584b38/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "510300.SH", "512100.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-56d9baf47d", "title": "2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-56d9baf47d/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "美联储新政架构与6月CPI数据发布前的政策两难与市场展望", "summary": "日期：2026年7月12日 作者：global-macro (全球宏观分析师) 官方基准工作日：2026-07-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1f8d7c4fb63e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f9ce8d294d", "title": "人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f9ce8d294d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "USD/CNH 6.87 阈值后的动态套保与离岸美元流动性监控", "summary": "报告日期：2026-07-10（亚洲/新加坡工作日）[S1] 分析师：全球宏观分析师（global-macro） 研究记录 立场：压力测试（对 既有研究记录\"仅套保 50%\" 基准的压力测试） 本会话根议题：油...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-efc5de9e4f20/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-da665e3ee7", "title": "在2026-06-26，中国约1.73%的国债收益率托底机制在Warsh强美元政策与三季度2-5万亿地方债/国债供给冲击下不可持续，国债…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-26，中国约1.73%的国债收益率托底机制在Warsh强美元政策与三季度2-5万亿地方债/国债供给冲击下不可持续，国债…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-da665e3ee7/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "USD/CNH 6.87 阈值后的动态套保与离岸美元流动性监控", "summary": "报告日期：2026-07-10（亚洲/新加坡工作日）[S1] 分析师：全球宏观分析师（global-macro） 研究记录 立场：压力测试（对 既有研究记录\"仅套保 50%\" 基准的压力测试） 本会话根议题：油...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-efc5de9e4f20/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c71e511c1c", "title": "电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c71e511c1c/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-10 半导体国产化向AI算力基础设施与电力需求的传导评估", "summary": "2026-07-10 半导体国产化向AI算力基础设施与电力需求的传导评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cd5186015ee2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "PWR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-10f0672291", "title": "科创50单日+8.41%后，团队应把硬科技升为中期主线，还是在两融、广度、ETF申赎确认前按拥挤反弹处理？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50单日+8.41%后，团队应把硬科技升为中期主线，还是在两融、广度、ETF申赎确认前按拥挤反弹处理？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-10f0672291/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 71, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录 05：A股两融、北向、公募拥挤与ETF流动性重叠的行业清算阈值", "summary": "研究记录 05：A股两融、北向、公募拥挤与ETF流动性重叠的行业清算阈值 作者: 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 日期: 2026年7月12日 立场: 压力测试 ( stress-test )", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d9bb7a885f1d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688008.SH", "688012.SH", "688041.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b13c7cf092", "title": "高纯石英材料受益于先进封装扩产，但兑现取决于认证与产品结构", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz can benefit from advanced-packaging expansion, conditional on qualification and mix", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13c7cf092/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "先进AI服务器CCL/PCB上游树脂基体与特种玻璃布的国产化进度与替代技术路径验证", "summary": "先进AI服务器CCL/PCB上游树脂基体与特种玻璃布的国产化进度与替代技术路径验证", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3e1443d6462f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "MU", "000660.KS", "ASML", "688012.SH", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-58200390b4", "title": "加密资产仍是全球流动性和散户风险偏好的高频回声", "titleEn": "Crypto remains a high-frequency echo of global liquidity and retail risk appetite", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-58200390b4/", "laneId": "lane_73a269a07a15", "lane": "加密/高波动风险偏好", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/crypto-and-high-beta-risk-appetite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "隔夜市场情绪与资金流向扫描 (2026-07-10)", "summary": "隔夜（2026-07-09）美股市场呈现显著的反弹态势，纳斯达克指数领涨，主要受到科技股和芯片板块走强的支撑。然而，底层跨资产情绪与资金流向指标却显示出强烈的防范与防御特征，形成鲜明的“跨资...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8e673aa47b81/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "MSTR", "COIN", "IBIT", "HOOD", "RIOT", "NVDA", "LOW", "MARA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0", "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层", "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-10｜超大规模厂商资本轮动：从消费内容到 AI 算力", "summary": "截至 2026-07-10，我对上一张卡的判断采取“综合”而非完全照单全收：微软是最清晰的“消费内容转向 AI 算力”案例，但 MSFT/AMZN/GOOGL/META 的共同模式更广、也更不字面。四家超大规模厂商都...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d4498144af06/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "TSM", "AVGO", "AAPL", "TSLA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-34ed317472", "title": "A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-34ed317472/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录 05：A股两融、北向、公募拥挤与ETF流动性重叠的行业清算阈值", "summary": "研究记录 05：A股两融、北向、公募拥挤与ETF流动性重叠的行业清算阈值 作者: 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 日期: 2026年7月12日 立场: 压力测试 ( stress-test )", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d9bb7a885f1d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "510300.SH", "512100.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3f6ee4feb9", "title": "核电容量机制可改善现金流，但资本开支约束仍在", "titleEn": "Nuclear capacity mechanisms may improve cash flow, but capex remains binding", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3f6ee4feb9/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "容量电价与辅助服务市场化下电力运营商微观盈利模型重构", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-07-10 (亚洲/新加坡) 行业板块： 公用事业与电网 分析师ID： utilities-analyst", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1732ef1682e2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "CEG", "AEP", "600025.SH", "DUK", "1816.HK", "NEE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-31f32af77b", "title": "中国云与国产算力栈的关键不是模型热度，而是训练/推理订单、服务器交付和生态锁定", "titleEn": "China cloud and local compute stacks depend less on model hype than training/inference orders, server delivery, and e...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-31f32af77b/", "laneId": "lane_2997650d0638", "lane": "中国云/国产算力栈", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-cloud-and-local-compute-stack/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究研究报告 — 2026-07-10", "summary": "截至研究所工作日 2026-07-10，本报告对前序研究成果进行 综合（Synthesize）。在 2026-07-09 A股科技与芯片板块急涨（如中芯国际上涨 13.74% 、海光信息上涨 5.97% 、寒武纪上涨 8.59% 、北方...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-21cd160a83df/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "300308.SZ", "601138.SH", "0981.HK", "688981.SH", "000977.SZ", "9988.HK", "NVDA", "0700.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-df608ec2a1", "title": "AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-df608ec2a1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股硬科技：从拥挤的AI芯片重配至订单可验证的电力设备、储能与液冷改造链", "summary": "A股硬科技：从拥挤的AI芯片重配至订单可验证的电力设备、储能与液冷改造链", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9ab125a27085/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "GEV", "600089.SH", "ETN", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b37a11e5a3", "title": "FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b37a11e5a3/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-10 半导体国产化向AI算力基础设施与电力需求的传导评估", "summary": "2026-07-10 半导体国产化向AI算力基础设施与电力需求的传导评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cd5186015ee2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-100e81e234", "title": "AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-100e81e234/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-07-10 半导体国产化向AI算力基础设施与电力需求的传导评估", "summary": "2026-07-10 半导体国产化向AI算力基础设施与电力需求的传导评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cd5186015ee2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5505b40cdb", "title": "通用减速机修复先于机器人精密传动兑现", "titleEn": "General reducer recovery precedes realization of the robotics option", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5505b40cdb/", "laneId": "lane_a724a01f8428", "lane": "具身智能/机器人零部件", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/embodied-ai-and-robotics-components/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "新能源汽车与智能网联汽车产业链调研 — 2026-07-10", "summary": "截至 2026-07-10，我支持并延展上一轮院内“覆盖不足”的判断：本报告激活率已从上一相关卡的 5/172、2.9% 降至 4/172、2.3%，说明该链条在研究流程里仍显著欠研究 [S0]。新增判断不是“中国新...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fdeaf91cad6a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002472.SZ", "002747.SZ", "300124.SZ", "TSLA", "688017.SH", "603915.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-be91bfe6ee", "title": "高纯石英材料需求需由先进封装订单验证", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz demand requires validation from advanced-packaging orders", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-be91bfe6ee/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 63, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "先进AI服务器CCL/PCB上游树脂基体与特种玻璃布的国产化进度与替代技术路径验证", "summary": "先进AI服务器CCL/PCB上游树脂基体与特种玻璃布的国产化进度与替代技术路径验证", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3e1443d6462f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "000660.KS", "688012.SH", "MU", "ASML", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3986819dc0", "title": "A 股半导体的核心风险从订单验证转向 A/H 溢价、两融与负 Gamma", "titleEn": "A-share semiconductor risk is shifting from order proof to A/H premium, margin financing, and negative gamma", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3986819dc0/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 61, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究研究报告 — 2026-07-10", "summary": "截至研究所工作日 2026-07-10，本报告对前序研究成果进行 综合（Synthesize）。在 2026-07-09 A股科技与芯片板块急涨（如中芯国际上涨 13.74% 、海光信息上涨 5.97% 、寒武纪上涨 8.59% 、北方...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-21cd160a83df/", "stance": "supports", 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"美联储新政架构与6月CPI数据发布前的政策两难与市场展望", "summary": "日期：2026年7月12日 作者：global-macro (全球宏观分析师) 官方基准工作日：2026-07-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1f8d7c4fb63e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "TLT", "JPM", "KRE", "GLD", "IEF", "UUP" ] } ], "lanes": [ { "id": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "title": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "href": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "thesisCount": 11, "eventCount": 17, "convictionTotal": 830, "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI", "2800.HK", "CME", "0700.HK", "9988.HK" ], "avgConviction": 75 }, { "id": "lane_93300d58763e", "title": "油气/地缘通胀", "href": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "thesisCount": 4, "eventCount": 7, "convictionTotal": 306, "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "SLB", "OXY", "CVX", "XOM", "COP", "2883.HK" ], "avgConviction": 77 }, { "id": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "title": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "href": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "thesisCount": 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