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      "title": "理财赎回冲击下国债/政金债久期分桶与AAA NCD流动性压力测试报告",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2d01384e8169/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "报告日期： 2026年07月07日 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 (global-macro · analyst:global-macro ) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test · 对前序风险平价组合中的防御袖套进行定量测试与参数设定)",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
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    },
    {
      "id": "archive-28f0da9c808b",
      "title": "AI 电力需求作为美国通胀新变量 - 2026-07-07",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-28f0da9c808b/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-07-07 [自测算: 本院工作日期已由本地 shell 命令 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-07 确认]。入选分析师： global-macro。立场：synthesize。研究问题：结构性、价格敏感度较低的...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-be377aac626a",
      "title": "全球多资产配置报告：人行“数量宽松、价格稳定”政策下的国债久期、汇率对冲与高股息板块轮动策略",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-be377aac626a/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "全球多资产配置报告：人行“数量宽松、价格稳定”政策下的国债久期、汇率对冲与高股息板块轮动策略 - 报告日期： 2026-07-07 (Asia/Singapore - 研究院权威工作日期) - 研究 Portal ID： ade74f...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-a245a7e2ba2e",
      "title": "鹰派按兵不动情景下的跨资产配置优化与A股两融及估值压力测试报告",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a245a7e2ba2e/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "报告日期： 2026-07-07 分析师： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 研究记录索引： 02/10 立场： 综合 (SYNTHESIZE，在利率高企的“鹰派按兵不动”基准情景下，优化大类资产配置，并评估去杠杆...",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-a6f460554272",
      "title": "新一代信息技术产业链调研 - 2026-07-07",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a6f460554272/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-07-07，Asia/Singapore。本报告把该产业链视为院内覆盖不足方向，因为任务输入的激活度为 5/92，即 5.4% [自测算：5 / 92 = 5.4%；输入来自任务简报]。公开政策口径上，中国把新...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-15d5898508e9",
      "title": "两融去杠杆深水区下A股电网设备筹码分布与VaR约束杠铃套保研究",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-15d5898508e9/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "报告日期： 2026年7月7日（研究院权威工作日） 分析师： A股策略师（ ashare-strategist ） 工作研究记录索引： 既有研究记录 研究立场： 支持（Support，并对 prior research note...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
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    },
    {
      "id": "archive-de86c5bd89a8",
      "title": "前序研究研究报告 — 2026-07-07",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de86c5bd89a8/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日期 2026-07-07 [自测算: 系统日期锚 返回 2026-07-07]，我对红区组合规则做 压力测试。核心判断是 部分否定：预设 20%-25% NAV 防御底仓，并把 TMT 从 60% NAV 第一...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-684160282d88",
      "title": "研究报告：截至2026-07-07的中国AIDC绿电、碳成本与电网容量预订TCO",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-684160282d88/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究报告：截至2026-07-07的中国AIDC绿电、碳成本与电网容量预订TCO 报告日期： 2026-07-07（Asia/Singapore） 作者： 公用事业分析师（Utilities Analyst） 研究线程标识：已归档",
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        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
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    },
    {
      "id": "archive-a5caf76567dc",
      "title": "电网设备拥挤退潮下，A股红利型公用事业能否承接资金轮动？",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a5caf76567dc/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 作者：A股策略师（ashare-strategist）· 工作日期：2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡） 主题：电网设备拥挤退潮下，A股红利型公用事业能否承接资金轮动 立场：支持（SUPPORT）——但对\"由...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-f1dae7179ca2",
      "title": "AI硬件回撤中的散户买跌：这是风险预算拐点吗？",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f1dae7179ca2/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 立场： initial - 作者： 首席策略师（A股策略、风格轮动、行业配置） - 工作日期： 2026-07-08（Asia/Singapore）· 会话主题： AI硬件回撤中散户继续买跌，是否是风险预算拐点？",
      "tags": [
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        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
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    {
      "id": "archive-97419a4eb668",
      "title": "全球宏观分析：政策背离、银行净息差锁死与A股周期Beta上调触发器",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-97419a4eb668/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "报告日期： 2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst) 分析立场： 综合 (Synthesize)（基于研究记录1、研究记录2及研究记录3的结论进行整合与深化）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-e9a8456c2165",
      "title": "2026-07-31｜研究记录 02｜30Y期限溢价分解与AI信用传导",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e9a8456c2165/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至机构工作日 2026-07-31，我对上一张卡做 压力测试并大体支持：美国30Y收益率接近 5.16-5.21%，主因不是AI债，而是主权久期供给、实际利率和期限溢价；AI供给是可见的边际扰动 [S1][S2]。更...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "archive"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-564ef12494b1",
      "title": "SPCX纳指纳入：从机械买盘到共识拥挤？",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-564ef12494b1/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-07-07。我的判断是支持条件性预警：如果SPCX在2026年7月7日纳入Nasdaq-100前后没有即时上行，市场叙事可能很快从“低流通被动买盘 squeeze”切换为“指数买入已完成、后续无增量...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-2daacdc3c030",
      "title": "中国建材产业链收缩背景下A股大消费与红利资产的重配策略",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2daacdc3c030/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "分析师： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) - 权威工作日期： 2026-07-07 - 研究记录索引： 02/10 - 研究立场： 支持 (支持并细化此前房地产分析师关于建材收缩与红利/大消费重配的逻辑链)",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
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      ],
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    },
    {
      "id": "archive-c788b1622fef",
      "title": "公用事业产业链 —— 低覆盖标的与跨链外溢风险图谱",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c788b1622fef/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 分析师： utilities-analyst（公用事业：电力、水务、环保、碳交易） 工作日： 2026-07-07（Asia/Singapore）· 立场：initial → 综合 + 延伸（synthesize）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-517edf7d033a",
      "title": "年中理财赎回冲击出清下的多资产久期管理与杠铃配置再平衡",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-517edf7d033a/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "分析基准日： 2026-07-07（Asia/Singapore）[S1] 撰写人： 大类资产配置师（ asset-allocator ）——以首席策略师视角统筹跨资产配置 研究记录 研究立场： 支持（延伸 01–04 卡）",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-8be3b7183e14",
      "title": "研究报告：2026-07-07",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8be3b7183e14/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日 2026-07-07，我对前序触发图做 压力测试：如果深档冲击只是人民币2,103亿-3,500亿元的下半区 [题设]，政策托底大概率能把科创50的流动性真空挡在1,550-1,600黄区内，但它不是...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-2d8773b76a45",
      "title": "2026-07-08 10年期国债1.65%触发后的A股杠铃组合配置",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2d8773b76a45/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-07-08 （Asia/Singapore）。本报告对前序逻辑做 综合判断：全球AI电力瓶颈仍然支撑A股出海成长与电网设备腿，但若10年期中国国债收益率确认跌破 1.65%，组合必须从“成长主导的...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-507bab0cf5fa",
      "title": "石油、天然气产业链——低覆盖标的与跨链溢出风险",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-507bab0cf5fa/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 能源行业分析师 (energy-analyst) · 工作日期：2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： initial · 主题： 石油、天然气产业链（30 日激活率 8.8%, 6/68——覆盖不足）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-aafed16aecc9",
      "title": "研究报告：2026-07-07",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aafed16aecc9/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日 2026-07-07，我对前序去杠杆图谱做 综合：如果研究记录06的T+1四信号闸门未能确认真托底，且科创50跌入1,516-1,550红区 [自测算: 红区阈值来自任务题设与前序研究链条]，一个T...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-673f02e5bc4e",
      "title": "策略研究报告：截至2026-07-07的A股AI基础设施与电力轮动",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-673f02e5bc4e/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "策略研究报告：截至2026-07-07的A股AI基础设施与电力轮动 工作日期： 2026-07-07（Asia/Singapore） 角色： 首席策略师 研究记录 主题： 物理电力约束下的A股AI基础设施与电力板块风格轮动",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-507c48120338",
      "title": "2026-07-07 A股策略卡：现金流红利与质量成长哑铃",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-507c48120338/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日 2026-07-07，我对 既有研究记录的全球宏观判断做综合，并支持“higher-for-longer”的主线：美国数据还不足以切换成宽松交易，因为 6 月非农就业仅增加 +57,000 人、4...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-13fbe31d4712",
      "title": "绿色食品产业链调研卡 — 2026-07-07",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-13fbe31d4712/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日期 2026-07-07，本研究过去 30 日对绿色食品的激活仅为 3/67，即 4.5% [S0]。本报告对前序重复主题做综合，而不是重写定义：新增内容是可投资产业链筛选 [S0]。核心判断支持院...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-b1e97a21a8e7",
      "title": "首席策略师组合管理备忘录：红利防御腿重配后的汇率敞口、南向流动性与动态再平衡框架",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b1e97a21a8e7/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "首席策略师组合管理备忘录：红利防御腿重配后的汇率敞口、南向流动性与动态再平衡框架 工作日期：2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师：chief-strategist 首席策略师 立场：综合 (Synthesize)",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-2608a756018f",
      "title": "研究报告：2026-07-07",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2608a756018f/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日 2026-07-07，我对上一张卡的风险主线给出 支持，但需要做一个修正：科创50雪球与两融并不是在1,996.10点附近就必然触发级联，而是跌破1,750点后才进入真实去杠杆区；1,600点是...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-dc6914848eeb",
      "title": "霍尔木兹尾部冲击下的中国流动性传导",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dc6914848eeb/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "报告日期： 2026-07-07（Asia/Singapore） 分析师角色： 全球宏观分析师 立场： synthesize 研究记录主题： 跨境资本外流与外汇流动性缺口向中国银行间流动性、CGB 曲线和实体信贷的传导",
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    {
      "id": "archive-41295bf8bee9",
      "title": "588000 / 588080 科创50ETF期权执行链与希腊值校准",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-41295bf8bee9/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "报告日期： 2026-07-07（Asia/Singapore 工作日） 分析师： 衍生品策略师（Global Macro 席位代行）— derivatives-strategist 研究来源：已归档 研究记录...",
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    {
      "id": "archive-65b9b1fd376a",
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      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-65b9b1fd376a/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "A股杠铃策略再平衡：红利与出口Alpha向半导体国产替代袖口的风险预算释放 日期： 2026-07-07 分析师： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) 研究研究记录： 既有研究记录 学术立场： 综...",
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    {
      "id": "archive-355859ec4f36",
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      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-355859ec4f36/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "专题研究报告：中国AI算力基础设施的电力交付与并网可靠性评估 报告日期： 2026-07-07 (新加坡) 作者： AI基础设施分析师 (AI Infrastructure Analyst) 研究来源：已归档-...",
      "tags": [
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    {
      "id": "archive-871cc78adf99",
      "title": "研究报告：A股杠铃组合中自主可控设备板块的波动特征与期权套保成本评估",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-871cc78adf99/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究院规范工作日期：2026-07-07 [S1] 报告作者：半导体分析师 ( semiconductors-analyst ) 研究记录索引：10/10 研究 stance：压力测试 ( stress-test )",
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    },
    {
      "id": "archive-4fc2ec028278",
      "title": "2026-07-07 — 全球套利清算阈值与 CNH 套保策略",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4fc2ec028278/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日 2026-07-07 （Asia/Singapore），我对前序研究的逻辑链作出 综合 判断：美联储“去指引”提高了等待的期权价值，也抬升了利率波动风险，但日元套利交易尚未进入机械性清算；只...",
      "tags": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "archive-9538e48b0b67",
      "title": "2026-07-07 — 日元套利平仓阈值与USD/JPY传导机制",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9538e48b0b67/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-07，我的压力测试结论是：USD/JPY在162附近本身不足以触发系统性套利平仓；更高置信度的触发组合是三件事同时出现：即期汇率跌破158、当前274bp的美日2年期利差压缩至...",
      "tags": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "archive-e7c6417e0cbd",
      "title": "A股杠铃再平衡：红利低波 vs 出口链先进制造",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7c6417e0cbd/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 首席策略师 (chief-strategist) · 工作日期：2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： synthesize · 主题： 油价中枢企稳下红利低波与出海先进制造的A股杠铃策略再平衡",
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      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-b9289268da17",
      "title": "假性宽松 vs 真性需求走弱——原油疲软的宏观辨析",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b9289268da17/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师 (global-macro) · 工作日期：2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： synthesize · 主题： 全球原油供需平衡与『假性宽松 vs 真性需求走弱』的宏观辨析",
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        "宏观",
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      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-530f402b41cd",
      "title": "研究报告：2026-07-07",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-530f402b41cd/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至权威工作日 2026-07-07，我支持上一张卡的方向，但需要收窄市场结论：2026年11月27日中国对美镓、锗相关出口管制暂停期到期，确实是重估锚，因为商务部只将2024年第46号公告第二款暂停至202...",
      "tags": [
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        "A股",
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      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-6b367adb9532",
      "title": "2026-07-07 — 全球carry平仓成长股冲击向A股的传导",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6b367adb9532/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至机构工作日2026-07-07，我对前序逻辑做综合而非否定：若全球成长股在日元carry平仓中于1-3个交易日峰谷下跌4%-7%，A股所承受的不是单纯盈利预期冲击，而是两条流动性链条的叠加。 [任务情景...",
      "tags": [
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        "宏观",
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    {
      "id": "archive-1d7dbfa5df61",
      "title": "2026-07-07 全球宏观研究记录：美国仍在扩张，但价格黏性偏强",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1d7dbfa5df61/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日 2026-07-07，本张 global-macro 研究记录讨论的核心问题是：最新美国数据应被解读为增长警报、滞胀警报，还是“更久维持限制性利率”的软着陆组合。我的判断是后者：6月非农新...",
      "tags": [
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        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
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    },
    {
      "id": "archive-1c747553e219",
      "title": "Warsh 转向：美联储把\"何时降息\"换成了\"要不要加息\"",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1c747553e219/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 研究记录 · 工作日期： 2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡） 主题： 美国通胀重新加速，以及新任主席 Kevin Warsh 领导下美联储点阵图的鹰派转向",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-5a2c1044ba9c",
      "title": "汇率闸门下的人行政策不可能三角（2026-07-07）",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5a2c1044ba9c/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-07-07。本报告综合前序汇率压力链条：当前约束不再是人行能否投放人民币流动性，而是在不确认 USD/CNY 穿越研究所 7.30 尾部触发位的前提下，能否投放足够的久期流动性与化债流...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-93cd2fb054ca",
      "title": "2026-07-07 — 研究记录07：中美公用事业重估杠铃的风险预算",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-93cd2fb054ca/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日2026-07-07，我支持研究记录06的方向，但把它从行业判断重构为组合问题：美股IPP是对24/7可靠电力稀缺和容量市场改革的权益看涨期权，A股则是“水电/核电稳态年金+国家电网特高...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-8961e9dcd312",
      "title": "全球宏观分析报告：A股电力设备出海地缘壁垒与国内“算电协同”政策对冲的压力测试",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8961e9dcd312/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "全球宏观分析报告：A股电力设备出海地缘壁垒与国内“算电协同”政策对冲的压力测试 报告日期：2026-07-07 研究员：全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst - china-macro)",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-b198c0486380",
      "title": "2026-07-09 A股商业航天两融与解禁压力测试",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b198c0486380/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "工作日期： 2026-07-09。本报告 支持 前两张卡从商业航天 beta 转向订单验证和结构阿尔法的主线，但把交易层面的结论收紧为：当前不是全市场两融系统性踩踏，而是商业航天内部的 个股融资盘、双...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-28e070626f26",
      "title": "跨市场宏观综合研判与大类资产配置框架（H2-2026）",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-28e070626f26/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（Global Macro Analyst）· 立场： 综合研判（Synthesize） 研究所工作工作日锚定： 2026-07-07（Asia/Singapore）",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-ef5dfaa86d61",
      "title": "电网设备链拥挤度与订单能力边际压力测试 — 2026-07-07",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ef5dfaa86d61/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至2026-07-07，我对上一张卡的轮动结论做压力测试，而不是简单否定：电网设备仍有真实订单可见性，但交易应从行业 beta 收缩到个股盈利兑现。国家电网“十五五”固定资产投资预计达到4万亿元...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-ce94ae415dbe",
      "title": "产业链调研：生命健康和生物科技（30日激活率4%, 7/174）",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ce94ae415dbe/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "产业链调研：生命健康和生物科技（30日激活率4%, 7/174） 工作日期：2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡） 医药行业分析师 (Healthcare-Analyst) 研究来源：已归档 研究...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-e87108f51f0c",
      "title": "能源与电力稀缺溢价压力测试 — 2026-07-07",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e87108f51f0c/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "以研究院工作日期2026-07-07为锚，我对前序逻辑链的判断是： 压力测试后部分支持。产能溢价与并网瓶颈确实可以对冲WACC上行，但前提是资产能通过容量市场、受监管输配电费基、或信用较强的大负...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-dddc28526347",
      "title": "前序研究 — 电网设备订单确定性与盈利兑现度，2026-07-07",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dddc28526347/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日 2026-07-07，本报告对策略师提出的“电网成长腿估值已高，需要盈利验证”进行压力测试。结论是：保留电网设备成长腿，但必须收窄到高压一次设备、特高压直流控保/换流阀、变压...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-6bacf76ed6ff",
      "title": "截至 2026-07-07 的宏观锚点压力测试：利率、红利与家电补贴",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6bacf76ed6ff/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "分析师： 全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst) - 权威工作日期： 2026-07-07 - 研究记录索引： 05/10 - 研究立场： 压力测试 (stress-test)",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-b5c3bbb9643b",
      "title": "AI基础设施与半导体：盈利上修能否抵消长端利率上升的估值冲击？",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b5c3bbb9643b/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "报告工作日期：2026-07-07 研究研究研究记录索引：8/8 立场倾向：压力测试 (Stress-Test) 分析师：AI基础设施分析师 (AI Infrastructure Analyst)",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-9fe2ab6ad3d9",
      "title": "AI算力硬件的去杠杆风险：需求增长与估值乘数压缩的博弈",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9fe2ab6ad3d9/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "日期： 2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡工作日） 作者： 半导体分析师 (semiconductors-analyst) 研究来源：已归档 研究记录 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-720792fbe649",
      "title": "美联储在退潮的油价冲击中转鹰——政策失误风险",
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-720792fbe649/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
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      "question": "6 月 FOMC 从'讨论降息'转为'保留加息'的鹰派转向是否被重新加速的通胀所证实，对下半年利率路径、收益率曲线、美元与风险资产意味着什么？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "全球宏观分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
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    {
      "title": "美联储在退潮的油价冲击中转鹰：5 月 CPI 4.2% 的能源脉冲与 6 月鹰派点阵图的政策失误风险",
      "question": "在 5 月总量 CPI 4.2%（逾 60% 来自与霍尔木兹相关的能源脉冲、核心仅 2.9%）而油价已从约 126 美元回落至约 70 美元的背景下，美联储 6 月的鹰派转向（年底中位...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席经济学家",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "2s10s走陡：熊陡压估值还是复苏risk-on",
      "question": "当前2s10s为+35 bps、2Y约4.14%、10Y约4.49%，在长端期限溢价和通胀黏性主导的情况下，应从情绪模型里加分还是作为成长股久期压力扣分？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "全球宏观分析师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "AI反弹的‘指数幻觉’与物理电网瓶颈下的科技估值崖线重估",
      "question": "美股AI权重股推高指数但广度崩溃，且PJM容量电价封顶确认电网约束，这是否意味着算力资本开支回报率面临中期下修？组合应如何应对这一物理天花板？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席策略师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "AI数据中心租约股是资源重估还是散户提前资本化",
      "question": "WULF的9B Anthropic租约是否代表电力/数据中心资源股的新估值框架，还是散户把2027-2028年后的收入过早一次性资本化？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "主题研究员",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "AI算力基建交易是否从GPU扩散到电力租约资产",
      "question": "TeraWulf-Anthropic的20年约9bn租约是否标志AI capex第二波主线，还是市场把前矿企和数据中心电力资产误当同质beta？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "主题研究员",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "meme-stock 2.0是否正在从AI硬件退潮中吸走风险资金？",
      "question": "WEN的组织化campaign和NFLX的24h提及激增，是零售资金从AI硬件转向品牌/低价/事件股的可交易轮动，还是短期噪音？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席策略师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "SPCX纳指纳入叙事是否已从机械买盘变成共识拥挤",
      "question": "如果7月7日被动买盘没有带来即时上行，SPCX会从低流通squeeze切换成指数买入后无增量接盘的叙事反转吗？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席策略师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "WEN meme squeeze是否说明零售动员进入可复制模板",
      "question": "WEN从上周“Save Wendy's”单日暴涨到今天社交bullish但股价下跌，是否显示2026年零售交易已形成低价品牌+短仓+病毒帖文的可复制挤压模板？ Prior related insti...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席策略师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "中国信用与两融：风暴还是局部去杠杆",
      "question": "交易所两融余额30033.37亿元、融资余额29807.24亿元的口径，如何与1.42万亿元“真实两融”和Option 4强制防御结论核对？明早应按事实基准还是压力情景交易？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席策略师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "存储大容量博弈与科技股高位分化风险",
      "question": "江波龙中报超预期后冲高回落，200亿成交是否意味着高位科技股筹码松动与两融出清风险？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席策略师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "日元突破162及潜在实际干预对全球债券与成长股的冲击",
      "question": "日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高估值成长股？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "全球宏观分析师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "科创板解禁洪峰与两融维保比例敏感性的风险共振",
      "question": "科创板Q3剩余2.38万亿解禁与两融维保比例敏感性测试显示，若维保率低于180%，15%-25%的价格冲击将触发平仓。组合应如何调整持仓结构以防范此类非机械性流动性冲...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席策略师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "精炼镓出口管制暂停到期对LEO卫星GaAs空间电池成本的冲击",
      "question": "11月27日精炼镓出口管制暂停期到期将使GaAs空间电池成本面临3-4倍飙升风险。这会如何影响我国主权星网(GW计划)发射成本及太空经济板块的整体估值？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "主题研究员",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "美联储无指引灵活性对全球长端债市波动的影响",
      "question": "美联储若放弃前瞻性指引转向沃什倡导的灵活性，是否会引发 MOVE 指数暴涨及长端收益率失控？ Prior related institute work to acknowledge and BUILD ON (do no...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "全球宏观分析师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "散户逼空模式的‘流动性陷阱’与消费K型分化下的均值回归",
      "question": "温迪快餐(WEN)等美股散户逼空行情极速衰退，是否预示着在高利率再通胀与消费分化下，散户逼空已成为机构算法套利的流动性陷阱？ Prior related institute work t...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "消费行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 7,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "产业链调研：建筑材料产业链（30 日激活率 7%, 11/157）",
      "question": "Investigate the 建筑材料产业链 industry chain. Activation: 11/157 (7%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names with th...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "房地产分析师",
      "noteCount": 6,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "AI反弹掩盖广度恶化：这是新一轮领导权还是指数幻觉？",
      "question": "在339只S&P 500成分股下跌、164只上涨的背景下，AI/半导体反弹是否足以重启风险偏好，还是只是在指数权重层面制造假突破？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席策略师",
      "noteCount": 4,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "产业链调研：大健康产业链（30 日激活率 4.3%, 12/280）",
      "question": "Investigate the 大健康产业链 industry chain. Activation: 12/280 (4.3%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names with th...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "医药行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 2,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "产业链调研：新一代信息技术（30 日激活率 5.4%, 5/92）",
      "question": "Investigate the 新一代信息技术 industry chain. Activation: 5/92 (5.4%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names with th...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "TMT行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 2,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    }
  ],
  "thesisEvents": [
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      "title": "在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…",
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          "summary": "A股实时托底确认：用ETF申购、科创50ETF折溢价、券商折算率与行业融资偿还，区分国家队真买盘与口头稳预期",
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          "title": "最终A股杠铃组合再平衡策略：半导体解禁压力、红利轮动与周期执行顺序",
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        {
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        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 - 跨市场期货保证金、ETF赎回流动性与A股两融担保品集中度的组合级压力测试报告",
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      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 今日是MSCI半年度重估正式生效日。虽然散户由于昨日创业板+1.96%的V型反弹而呈现极度FOMO，但A股两融余额正高挂于2.9367万…",
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        {
          "title": "A股科技与半导体两融出清：科创50再入场阈值",
          "summary": "A股科技与半导体两融出清：科创50再入场阈值 作者： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 日期： 2026-07-07 (Asia/Singapore) 研究记录索引： 02/08 当前立场： 否定 - 否定现在即可重新买入高拥...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-04fa8c12df70/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "首席策略师专题研究报告：在岸流动性传导下A股科创两融去杠杆压力测试、雪球期权敲入负反馈与券商...",
          "summary": "首席策略师专题研究报告：在岸流动性传导下A股科创两融去杠杆压力测试、雪球期权敲入负反馈与券商红利资产重定价弹性",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-555413c05953/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "跨季日元平仓与两融拥挤压力下A股组合风格重配置及多步论点发布前最终QA审计报告",
          "summary": "跨季日元平仓与两融拥挤压力下A股组合风格重配置及多步论点发布前最终QA审计报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-74bce484890c/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "日元套利平仓与两融去杠杆压力下A股模型组合风格重配置及行业表达",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-07-07 分析师： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 立场： 综合 (Synthesize)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bc52a5b0e8b1/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "510300.SH",
        "MCHI",
        "KWEB"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-cf6925b02f",
      "title": "232/301双轨壁垒近端收紧回路、延长轨道时间溢价至2028–2029，但通过抬高美国电气化成本加速AI资本开支ROI清算——约束正从…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 232/301双轨壁垒近端收紧回路、延长轨道时间溢价至2028–2029，但通过抬高美国电气化成本加速AI资本开支ROI清算——约束正从…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-cf6925b02f/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 3,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI 算力基建高景气下 A 股电网设备板块的估值重估与拥挤度分歧研究",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026年7月7日 (研究院工作日) 分析师： 首席策略师 (chief-strategist) 工作研究记录索引： 既有研究记录 研究 stance： 支持 (Support)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0a524bf21040/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "电网设备、受监管电力与能源现金流的 A 股最终仓位执行",
          "summary": "日期： 2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡工作日） 作者： 首席策略师 (chief-strategist) 研究来源：已归档 局执行卡） 立场： 综合（把 既有研究记录 落地...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-52238dc63707/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "高真实利率制度下 AI 电力/电网杠铃的最终组合权重与止损规则",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-07-07（新加坡/东八区 - 研究院基准工作日） - 研究来源：已归档 - 共享会话路由： [source-id-redacted] - 研究记录位置...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5e83899076ea/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "电网设备拥挤退潮下，A股红利型公用事业能否承接资金轮动？",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 作者：A股策略师（ashare-strategist）· 工作日期：2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡） 主题：电网设备拥挤退潮下，A股红利型公用事业能否承接资金轮动 立场：支持（SUPPORT）——但对\"由...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a5caf76567dc/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "002028.SZ",
        "GEV",
        "600089.SH",
        "601179.SH",
        "ETN",
        "688676.SH",
        "VST"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e12bcc0d59",
      "title": "PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e12bcc0d59/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 5,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "summary": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-da79bcf79805/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 A股落地：把全球AI气穴对冲翻译成等权、红利质量、电网设备与低两融科技四篮子",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 A股落地：把全球AI气穴对冲翻译成等权、红利质量、电网设备与低两融科技四篮子",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8466b7f2ff1a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "首席策略师专题研究报告：在岸流动性传导下A股科创两融去杠杆压力测试、雪球期权敲入负反馈与券商...",
          "summary": "首席策略师专题研究报告：在岸流动性传导下A股科创两融去杠杆压力测试、雪球期权敲入负反馈与券商红利资产重定价弹性",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-555413c05953/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "跨季日元平仓与两融拥挤压力下A股组合风格重配置及多步论点发布前最终QA审计报告",
          "summary": "跨季日元平仓与两融拥挤压力下A股组合风格重配置及多步论点发布前最终QA审计报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-74bce484890c/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "588000.SH",
        "510300.SH",
        "512100.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-10f0672291",
      "title": "科创50单日+8.41%后，团队应把硬科技升为中期主线，还是在两融、广度、ETF申赎确认前按拥挤反弹处理？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50单日+8.41%后，团队应把硬科技升为中期主线，还是在两融、广度、ETF申赎确认前按拥挤反弹处理？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-10f0672291/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 71,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 5,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股科技与半导体两融出清：科创50再入场阈值",
          "summary": "A股科技与半导体两融出清：科创50再入场阈值 作者： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 日期： 2026-07-07 (Asia/Singapore) 研究记录索引： 02/08 当前立场： 否定 - 否定现在即可重新买入高拥...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-04fa8c12df70/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "A股实时托底确认：用ETF申购、科创50ETF折溢价、券商折算率与行业融资偿还，区分国家队真买盘与口...",
          "summary": "A股实时托底确认：用ETF申购、科创50ETF折溢价、券商折算率与行业融资偿还，区分国家队真买盘与口头稳预期",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-67ef097d2baf/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "两融折算率下调与ETF申赎结构演化下，硬科技与电力红利板块的筹码稳定性与微观结构重塑",
          "summary": "两融折算率下调与ETF申赎结构演化下，硬科技与电力红利板块的筹码稳定性与微观结构重塑",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a36517179a53/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "A股市场结构承接能力：TMT融资集中度、科创50 ETF申赎容量与券商折算率触发图",
          "summary": "A股市场结构承接能力：TMT融资集中度、科创50 ETF申赎容量与券商折算率触发图",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e548a1bd55a9/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "588000.SH",
        "688256.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688008.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "688041.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-34ed317472",
      "title": "A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-34ed317472/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "两融折算率下调与ETF申赎结构演化下，硬科技与电力红利板块的筹码稳定性与微观结构重塑",
          "summary": "两融折算率下调与ETF申赎结构演化下，硬科技与电力红利板块的筹码稳定性与微观结构重塑",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a36517179a53/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "两融去杠杆深水区下A股电网设备筹码分布与VaR约束杠铃套保研究",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026年7月7日（研究院权威工作日） 分析师： A股策略师（ ashare-strategist ） 工作研究记录索引： 既有研究记录 研究立场： 支持（Support，并对 prior research note...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-15d5898508e9/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 A股落地：把全球AI气穴对冲翻译成等权、红利质量、电网设备与低两融科技四篮子",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 A股落地：把全球AI气穴对冲翻译成等权、红利质量、电网设备与低两融科技四篮子",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8466b7f2ff1a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 - 跨市场期货保证金、ETF赎回流动性与A股两融担保品集中度的组合级压力测试报告",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 - 跨市场期货保证金、ETF赎回流动性与A股两融担保品集中度的组合级压力测试报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f22ae04f8753/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "588000.SH",
        "510300.SH",
        "512100.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-70daf87262",
      "title": "A 股红利与硬科技杠铃仍是政策、利率和风险偏好的组合表达",
      "titleEn": "A-share dividend and hard-tech barbell remains the portfolio expression of policy, rates, and risk appetite",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-70daf87262/",
      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "direction": "strengthening",
      "directionLabel": "强化",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 3,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股杠铃再平衡：红利低波 vs 出口链先进制造",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 首席策略师 (chief-strategist) · 工作日期：2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： synthesize · 主题： 油价中枢企稳下红利低波与出海先进制造的A股杠铃策略再平衡",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7c6417e0cbd/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 研究报告：45/35/20风格组合的A股市场结构落地与再平衡触发器",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 研究报告：45/35/20风格组合的A股市场结构落地与再平衡触发器",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3947f514d3f4/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "研究报告：A股杠铃组合中自主可控设备板块的波动特征与期权套保成本评估",
          "summary": "研究院规范工作日期：2026-07-07 [S1] 报告作者：半导体分析师 ( semiconductors-analyst ) 研究记录索引：10/10 研究 stance：压力测试 ( stress-test )",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-871cc78adf99/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "A股策略专题：利率走廊中枢下移与理财赎回冲击下——红利资产拥挤度清算研判与红利→成长风格轮动...",
          "summary": "A股策略专题：利率走廊中枢下移与理财赎回冲击下——红利资产拥挤度清算研判与红利→成长风格轮动路径",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7e8948ffa757/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "601398.SH",
        "601088.SH",
        "600941.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "601939.SH",
        "510880.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3986819dc0",
      "title": "A 股半导体的核心风险从订单验证转向 A/H 溢价、两融与负 Gamma",
      "titleEn": "A-share semiconductor risk is shifting from order proof to A/H premium, margin financing, and negative gamma",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3986819dc0/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 61,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 4,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股科技与半导体两融出清：科创50再入场阈值",
          "summary": "A股科技与半导体两融出清：科创50再入场阈值 作者： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 日期： 2026-07-07 (Asia/Singapore) 研究记录索引： 02/08 当前立场： 否定 - 否定现在即可重新买入高拥...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-04fa8c12df70/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "最终A股杠铃组合再平衡策略：半导体解禁压力、红利轮动与周期执行顺序",
          "summary": "报告日期：2026-07-07 (亚洲/新加坡) 分析师：chief-strategist 首席策略师 立场：综合 (Synthesize)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ed7b3393900d/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "研究报告：A股杠铃组合中自主可控设备板块的波动特征与期权套保成本评估",
          "summary": "研究院规范工作日期：2026-07-07 [S1] 报告作者：半导体分析师 ( semiconductors-analyst ) 研究记录索引：10/10 研究 stance：压力测试 ( stress-test )",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-871cc78adf99/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 研究报告：45/35/20风格组合的A股市场结构落地与再平衡触发器",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 研究报告：45/35/20风格组合的A股市场结构落地与再平衡触发器",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3947f514d3f4/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688981.SH",
        "688256.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "600900.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "300308.SZ",
        "002371.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-bef6966fdd",
      "title": "工业机械的出口订单质量和设备更新周期决定制造业 CapEx 弹性",
      "titleEn": "Industrial machinery beta depends on export-order quality and equipment-upgrade capex",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bef6966fdd/",
      "laneId": "lane_6e2dcaab093e",
      "lane": "工业机械/设备更新出海",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/industrial-machinery-equipment-upgrade-and-exports/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 59,
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      "neutral": 0,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "工业机械产业链 — 低覆盖扫描与深度研究队列",
          "summary": "· 工业制造分析师 · 工作日期：2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡） 主题： 产业链调研：工业机械产业链 — 30 日激活率 5.1%（6/118），研究不足 立场： initial（开题卡）",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 A股策略：制造业设备更新与红利防御的再平衡",
          "summary": "日期： 2026-07-07 分析师 ID： chief-strategist (首席策略师) 立论态度： 综合 (Synthesize) 研究记录",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3b320df9578f/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "工程机械出海压力测试：三一、中联、徐工的海外毛利率、汇率敏感度与关税可持续性评估",
          "summary": "工程机械出海压力测试：三一、中联、徐工的海外毛利率、汇率敏感度与关税可持续性评估",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a530d9ba6a6d/",
          "stance": "risk",
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        },
        {
          "title": "工业机械上行的宏观支撑：制造业资本开支与固定资产投资周期能否延续",
          "summary": "日期： 2026-07-07 分析师 ID： global-macro (全球宏观分析师) 立论态度： 综合 (Synthesize)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0153d849ff58/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
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        "600761.SH",
        "002747.SZ",
        "000425.SZ",
        "603338.SH",
        "603298.SH",
        "000157.SZ",
        "601100.SH",
        "300124.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d4473d35e5",
      "title": "猪周期、粮食与农产品价格决定中国低通胀修复的弹性",
      "titleEn": "Hog cycle, grain, and agricultural prices define the elasticity of China's low-inflation repair",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d4473d35e5/",
      "laneId": "lane_6e276fa53da1",
      "lane": "食品农业/猪周期",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-agriculture-and-hog-cycle/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 56,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 全球宏观卡：猪周期关注度有战术催化，但还不是完整食品通胀主线",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 全球宏观卡：猪周期关注度有战术催化，但还不是完整食品通胀主线",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fbfb7215ba0b/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 金融行业压力测试：资金面支持缩小AI核心仓，不支持杠杆追猪周期",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 金融行业压力测试：资金面支持缩小AI核心仓，不支持杠杆追猪周期",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-82781c0934e3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 A股执行筛选：修正后猪周期波段与缩小后AI硬件核心仓的五关口清单",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 A股执行筛选：修正后猪周期波段与缩小后AI硬件核心仓的五关口清单",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cb1f621954a9/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 宏观深度研究报告：国内粮价与食品CPI周期对绿色食品核心池基本面兑现节奏的决定作用",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 宏观深度研究报告：国内粮价与食品CPI周期对绿色食品核心池基本面兑现节奏的决定作用",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-be3fffca3f16/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "002714.SZ",
        "001215.SZ",
        "300498.SZ",
        "000876.SZ",
        "CME",
        "600298.SH",
        "ADM",
        "DBA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-026aa1679b",
      "title": "云厂商自发电正在把 AI 交付风险转移到核电、燃气、电网与公用事业信用",
      "titleEn": "Cloud self-generation is shifting AI delivery risk into nuclear, gas, grid assets, and utility credit",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-026aa1679b/",
      "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708",
      "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 49,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电网“堵塞”重塑超大规模云厂商版图：电力确定性成为新的选址约束与 CAPEX 优先级",
          "summary": "电网“堵塞”重塑超大规模云厂商版图：电力确定性成为新的选址约束与 CAPEX 优先级",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2331ccf57ebf/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "Time-to-Power 溢价在 A/H 公用事业与电网设备中的定价分布",
          "summary": "Time-to-Power 溢价在 A/H 公用事业与电网设备中的定价分布",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-756e06aa5d45/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "北美与在岸AI算力园区的“电力锁定”与并网分化微观审计",
          "summary": "北美与在岸AI算力园区的“电力锁定”与并网分化微观审计 报告日期： 2026-07-07 作者： AI基础设施分析师 ( ai-infrastructure-analyst )",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f6478e40a9da/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "公用事业分析师专题研究报告：电力系统容纳力与公用事业重估：变压器交期约束下的绿电并网与高价容...",
          "summary": "公用事业分析师专题研究报告：电力系统容纳力与公用事业重估：变压器交期约束下的绿电并网与高价容量电费承销 — 2026-07-07",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-baa6c02db950/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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        "CEG",
        "GEV",
        "SMR",
        "META",
        "ETN",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "AEP",
        "NVDA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a0828c5498",
      "title": "在两融余额突破3.015万亿元且电子板块平均CMR跌至138.55%的背景下，下周一强平盘（约1460亿）释放是否会刺穿市场底？组合应如…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在两融余额突破3.015万亿元且电子板块平均CMR跌至138.55%的背景下，下周一强平盘（约1460亿）释放是否会刺穿市场底？组合应如…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a0828c5498/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 82,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "两融折算率下调与ETF申赎结构演化下，硬科技与电力红利板块的筹码稳定性与微观结构重塑",
          "summary": "两融折算率下调与ETF申赎结构演化下，硬科技与电力红利板块的筹码稳定性与微观结构重塑",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a36517179a53/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 A股落地：把全球AI气穴对冲翻译成等权、红利质量、电网设备与低两融科技四篮子",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 A股落地：把全球AI气穴对冲翻译成等权、红利质量、电网设备与低两融科技四篮子",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8466b7f2ff1a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "首席策略师专题研究报告，2026-07-07：两融去杠杆与雪球敲入约束下红利/成长组合的动态风险平价再...",
          "summary": "首席策略师专题研究报告，2026-07-07：两融去杠杆与雪球敲入约束下红利/成长组合的动态风险平价再平衡",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b1118981cdf8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "510300.SH",
        "512100.SH",
        "588000.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-9a926eda26",
      "title": "本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a926eda26/",
      "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e",
      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "两融折算率下调与ETF申赎结构演化下，硬科技与电力红利板块的筹码稳定性与微观结构重塑",
          "summary": "两融折算率下调与ETF申赎结构演化下，硬科技与电力红利板块的筹码稳定性与微观结构重塑",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a36517179a53/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 A股落地：把全球AI气穴对冲翻译成等权、红利质量、电网设备与低两融科技四篮子",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 A股落地：把全球AI气穴对冲翻译成等权、红利质量、电网设备与低两融科技四篮子",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8466b7f2ff1a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "首席策略师专题研究报告，2026-07-07：两融去杠杆与雪球敲入约束下红利/成长组合的动态风险平价再...",
          "summary": "首席策略师专题研究报告，2026-07-07：两融去杠杆与雪球敲入约束下红利/成长组合的动态风险平价再平衡",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b1118981cdf8/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "600905.SH",
        "DUK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d09a741710",
      "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d09a741710/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "公用事业分析师专题研究报告：电力系统容纳力与公用事业重估：变压器交期约束下的绿电并网与高价容...",
          "summary": "公用事业分析师专题研究报告：电力系统容纳力与公用事业重估：变压器交期约束下的绿电并网与高价容量电费承销 — 2026-07-07",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-baa6c02db950/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "电网“堵塞”重塑超大规模云厂商版图：电力确定性成为新的选址约束与 CAPEX 优先级",
          "summary": "电网“堵塞”重塑超大规模云厂商版图：电力确定性成为新的选址约束与 CAPEX 优先级",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2331ccf57ebf/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "全球宏观分析报告：A股电力设备出海地缘壁垒与国内“算电协同”政策对冲的压力测试",
          "summary": "全球宏观分析报告：A股电力设备出海地缘壁垒与国内“算电协同”政策对冲的压力测试 报告日期：2026-07-07 研究员：全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst - china-macro)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8961e9dcd312/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "002028.SZ",
        "600089.SH",
        "601179.SH",
        "688676.SH",
        "VST"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-6ae5e48f60",
      "title": "折算率冲击目前更像高估值拥挤交易的局部去杠杆，而非已经形成全市场融资平仓链条。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 折算率冲击目前更像高估值拥挤交易的局部去杠杆，而非已经形成全市场融资平仓链条。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6ae5e48f60/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股科技与半导体两融出清：科创50再入场阈值",
          "summary": "A股科技与半导体两融出清：科创50再入场阈值 作者： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 日期： 2026-07-07 (Asia/Singapore) 研究记录索引： 02/08 当前立场： 否定 - 否定现在即可重新买入高拥...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-04fa8c12df70/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "两融去杠杆深水区下A股电网设备筹码分布与VaR约束杠铃套保研究",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026年7月7日（研究院权威工作日） 分析师： A股策略师（ ashare-strategist ） 工作研究记录索引： 既有研究记录 研究立场： 支持（Support，并对 prior research note...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-15d5898508e9/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "首席策略师专题研究报告：在岸流动性传导下A股科创两融去杠杆压力测试、雪球期权敲入负反馈与券商...",
          "summary": "首席策略师专题研究报告：在岸流动性传导下A股科创两融去杠杆压力测试、雪球期权敲入负反馈与券商红利资产重定价弹性",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-555413c05953/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688256.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688008.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-db4939d8d8",
      "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db4939d8d8/",
      "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708",
      "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI算力基载电力来源与容量电价：核电/天然气直连与绿电溢价的经济性权衡",
          "summary": "作者 : 公用事业分析师 (Utilities Analyst) 工作日期 : 2026-07-07 研究记录索引 : 6/10 状态 : 支持 (Support)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3f0704861d8d/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI数据中心电力瓶颈与核能/基荷能源直供协议（PPA）的兴起（报告日期：2026-07-07）",
          "summary": "AI数据中心电力瓶颈与核能/基荷能源直供协议（PPA）的兴起（报告日期：2026-07-07）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-94c547793b99/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI算力对能源供给侧的重塑：电网瓶颈下核电、气电/煤电与绿电的扩容弹性",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-07 [S0] 分析师： 能源行业分析师 立场： 支持，但需区分兑现节奏 研究记录",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9225e15bc457/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "CEG",
        "VST",
        "ETN"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-7a2fc614c1",
      "title": "在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a2fc614c1/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
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      "conviction": 77,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 A股落地：把全球AI气穴对冲翻译成等权、红利质量、电网设备与低两融科技四篮子",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 A股落地：把全球AI气穴对冲翻译成等权、红利质量、电网设备与低两融科技四篮子",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8466b7f2ff1a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "两融去杠杆深水区下A股电网设备筹码分布与VaR约束杠铃套保研究",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026年7月7日（研究院权威工作日） 分析师： A股策略师（ ashare-strategist ） 工作研究记录索引： 既有研究记录 研究立场： 支持（Support，并对 prior research note...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-15d5898508e9/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "summary": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-47ba22d32171/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
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        "601179.SH",
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "CEG",
        "VST"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-db003202fc",
      "title": "国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db003202fc/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50bc319cf3e3/",
          "stance": "risk",
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        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 — PBOC 外汇防御向境内人民币流动性、NCD 利差与 A 股宏观风险的传导",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 — PBOC 外汇防御向境内人民币流动性、NCD 利差与 A 股宏观风险的传导",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-95fbf4c75c6d/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 — PBOC 离岸 CNH 央票的容量上限与 CNH-CNY 基差渗透阈值",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 — PBOC 离岸 CNH 央票的容量上限与 CNH-CNY 基差渗透阈值",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-59d2f764aedb/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d98ced0974",
      "title": "电力瓶颈会重排AI算力项目顺序，但不会让2025-2026年全球AI集群建设同步停摆。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力瓶颈会重排AI算力项目顺序，但不会让2025-2026年全球AI集群建设同步停摆。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d98ced0974/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI算力基载电力来源与容量电价：核电/天然气直连与绿电溢价的经济性权衡",
          "summary": "作者 : 公用事业分析师 (Utilities Analyst) 工作日期 : 2026-07-07 研究记录索引 : 6/10 状态 : 支持 (Support)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3f0704861d8d/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI 算力基建高景气下 A 股电网设备板块的估值重估与拥挤度分歧研究",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026年7月7日 (研究院工作日) 分析师： 首席策略师 (chief-strategist) 工作研究记录索引： 既有研究记录 研究 stance： 支持 (Support)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0a524bf21040/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "电网设备、受监管电力与能源现金流的 A 股最终仓位执行",
          "summary": "日期： 2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡工作日） 作者： 首席策略师 (chief-strategist) 研究来源：已归档 局执行卡） 立场： 综合（把 既有研究记录 落地...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-52238dc63707/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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        "002028.SZ",
        "601179.SH",
        "ETN",
        "600089.SH",
        "VST",
        "CEG"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-979591277f",
      "title": "能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-979591277f/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "跨资产账户的货币腿重定价：鸽派美联储转向与霍尔木兹海峡再封锁尾部风险下的美元、人民币与套息交...",
          "summary": "跨资产账户的货币腿重定价：鸽派美联储转向与霍尔木兹海峡再封锁尾部风险下的美元、人民币与套息交易路径",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3a4d5fa96d69/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50bc319cf3e3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "summary": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-da79bcf79805/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f9ce8d294d",
      "title": "人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f9ce8d294d/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
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      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50bc319cf3e3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "跨资产账户的货币腿重定价：鸽派美联储转向与霍尔木兹海峡再封锁尾部风险下的美元、人民币与套息交...",
          "summary": "跨资产账户的货币腿重定价：鸽派美联储转向与霍尔木兹海峡再封锁尾部风险下的美元、人民币与套息交易路径",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3a4d5fa96d69/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "summary": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-da79bcf79805/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-820459973e",
      "title": "在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-820459973e/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 欧美壁垒下A股电力设备、绿色数据中心、UHV/电网自动化与半导体国产化再配比 [S0]",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 欧美壁垒下A股电力设备、绿色数据中心、UHV/电网自动化与半导体国产化再配比 [S0]",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fad5d96962fb/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "公用事业分析师专题研究报告：电力系统容纳力与公用事业重估：变压器交期约束下的绿电并网与高价容...",
          "summary": "公用事业分析师专题研究报告：电力系统容纳力与公用事业重估：变压器交期约束下的绿电并网与高价容量电费承销 — 2026-07-07",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-baa6c02db950/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "summary": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-47ba22d32171/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "002028.SZ",
        "ETN",
        "601179.SH",
        "600089.SH",
        "CEG",
        "VST"
      ]
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    {
      "id": "thesis-2a12467f9b",
      "title": "卫星电源壁垒需由发射节奏和单星价值量持续验证",
      "titleEn": "Satellite-power barriers require continued validation through launch cadence and content per spacecraft",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2a12467f9b/",
      "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f",
      "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 70,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "国内LEO星座发射与卫星总装节奏能否把GaAs空间电池在手订单兑现为2026年收入？",
          "summary": "国内LEO星座发射与卫星总装节奏能否把GaAs空间电池在手订单兑现为2026年收入？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9bd34ab06125/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "GaAs/InP化合物半导体材料链真实收入弹性核验",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-07（Asia/Singapore）· 研究记录 · 立场：支持（并收窄）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-441c5cca56a1/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-09 A股商业航天两融与解禁压力测试",
          "summary": "工作日期： 2026-07-09。本报告 支持 前两张卡从商业航天 beta 转向订单验证和结构阿尔法的主线，但把交易层面的结论收紧为：当前不是全市场两融系统性踩踏，而是商业航天内部的 个股融资盘、双...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b198c0486380/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "RKLB",
        "ASTS",
        "600118.SH",
        "IRDM",
        "RDW",
        "LUNR",
        "LMT"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-0a0d09421e",
      "title": "AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0a0d09421e/",
      "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a",
      "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电网“堵塞”重塑超大规模云厂商版图：电力确定性成为新的选址约束与 CAPEX 优先级",
          "summary": "电网“堵塞”重塑超大规模云厂商版图：电力确定性成为新的选址约束与 CAPEX 优先级",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2331ccf57ebf/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "专题研究报告：TeraWulf 的 190 亿美元 Anthropic 租约 —— 资源重估还是散户提前资本化？",
          "summary": "专题研究报告：TeraWulf 的 190 亿美元 Anthropic 租约 —— 资源重估还是散户提前资本化？ 报告日期： 2026-07-07 (新加坡) 作者： 主题研究员 (Thematic Researcher) 专题： AI 数据中心与电...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-61716af4e922/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI数据中心电力瓶颈与核能/基荷能源直供协议（PPA）的兴起（报告日期：2026-07-07）",
          "summary": "AI数据中心电力瓶颈与核能/基荷能源直供协议（PPA）的兴起（报告日期：2026-07-07）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-94c547793b99/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "NVDA",
        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-0346c87b0c",
      "title": "当前AI算力扩容的主瓶颈是电力和电网交付第一、芯片第二；没有已通电MW背书的纸面算力应被折价。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当前AI算力扩容的主瓶颈是电力和电网交付第一、芯片第二；没有已通电MW背书的纸面算力应被折价。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0346c87b0c/",
      "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708",
      "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电网“堵塞”重塑超大规模云厂商版图：电力确定性成为新的选址约束与 CAPEX 优先级",
          "summary": "电网“堵塞”重塑超大规模云厂商版图：电力确定性成为新的选址约束与 CAPEX 优先级",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2331ccf57ebf/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 — AI算力基建：交易主线是否从GPU稀缺扩散到电力租约稀缺？",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 — AI算力基建：交易主线是否从GPU稀缺扩散到电力租约稀缺？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-77b6e22a7ea1/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "北美与在岸AI算力园区的“电力锁定”与并网分化微观审计",
          "summary": "北美与在岸AI算力园区的“电力锁定”与并网分化微观审计 报告日期： 2026-07-07 作者： AI基础设施分析师 ( ai-infrastructure-analyst )",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f6478e40a9da/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "CEG",
        "VST",
        "601985.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4749f7193b",
      "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4749f7193b/",
      "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708",
      "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "北美与在岸AI算力园区的“电力锁定”与并网分化微观审计",
          "summary": "北美与在岸AI算力园区的“电力锁定”与并网分化微观审计 报告日期： 2026-07-07 作者： AI基础设施分析师 ( ai-infrastructure-analyst )",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f6478e40a9da/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "公用事业分析师专题研究报告：电力系统容纳力与公用事业重估：变压器交期约束下的绿电并网与高价容...",
          "summary": "公用事业分析师专题研究报告：电力系统容纳力与公用事业重估：变压器交期约束下的绿电并网与高价容量电费承销 — 2026-07-07",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-baa6c02db950/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 — AI算力基建：交易主线是否从GPU稀缺扩散到电力租约稀缺？",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 — AI算力基建：交易主线是否从GPU稀缺扩散到电力租约稀缺？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-77b6e22a7ea1/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "VST",
        "CEG",
        "601985.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3f6ee4feb9",
      "title": "核电容量机制可改善现金流，但资本开支约束仍在",
      "titleEn": "Nuclear capacity mechanisms may improve cash flow, but capex remains binding",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3f6ee4feb9/",
      "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e",
      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI算力基载电力来源与容量电价：核电/天然气直连与绿电溢价的经济性权衡",
          "summary": "作者 : 公用事业分析师 (Utilities Analyst) 工作日期 : 2026-07-07 研究记录索引 : 6/10 状态 : 支持 (Support)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3f0704861d8d/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "高真实利率制度下 AI 电力/电网杠铃的最终组合权重与止损规则",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-07-07（新加坡/东八区 - 研究院基准工作日） - 研究来源：已归档 - 共享会话路由： [source-id-redacted] - 研究记录位置...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5e83899076ea/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "公用事业分析师专题研究报告：电力系统容纳力与公用事业重估：变压器交期约束下的绿电并网与高价容...",
          "summary": "公用事业分析师专题研究报告：电力系统容纳力与公用事业重估：变压器交期约束下的绿电并网与高价容量电费承销 — 2026-07-07",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-baa6c02db950/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "CEG",
        "AEP",
        "600025.SH",
        "DUK",
        "1816.HK",
        "NEE"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-df608ec2a1",
      "title": "AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-df608ec2a1/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 欧美壁垒下A股电力设备、绿色数据中心、UHV/电网自动化与半导体国产化再配比 [S0]",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 欧美壁垒下A股电力设备、绿色数据中心、UHV/电网自动化与半导体国产化再配比 [S0]",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fad5d96962fb/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "全球宏观分析报告：A股电力设备出海地缘壁垒与国内“算电协同”政策对冲的压力测试",
          "summary": "全球宏观分析报告：A股电力设备出海地缘壁垒与国内“算电协同”政策对冲的压力测试 报告日期：2026-07-07 研究员：全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst - china-macro)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8961e9dcd312/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "公用事业分析师专题研究报告：电力系统容纳力与公用事业重估：变压器交期约束下的绿电并网与高价容...",
          "summary": "公用事业分析师专题研究报告：电力系统容纳力与公用事业重估：变压器交期约束下的绿电并网与高价容量电费承销 — 2026-07-07",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-baa6c02db950/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      ],
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        "GEV",
        "600089.SH",
        "ETN",
        "601179.SH",
        "688676.SH",
        "VST"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-fd31cc177b",
      "title": "债券供给、地方债与久期需求决定利率下行空间",
      "titleEn": "Bond supply, local-government debt, and duration demand define room for rates to fall",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fd31cc177b/",
      "laneId": "lane_6fbf93c613f9",
      "lane": "债券供给/银行久期",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/bond-supply-and-bank-duration/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 54,
      "supports": 1,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "全球多资产配置报告：人行“数量宽松、价格稳定”政策下的国债久期、汇率对冲与高股息板块轮动策略",
          "summary": "全球多资产配置报告：人行“数量宽松、价格稳定”政策下的国债久期、汇率对冲与高股息板块轮动策略 - 报告日期： 2026-07-07 (Asia/Singapore - 研究院权威工作日期) - 研究 Portal ID： ade74f...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-be377aac626a/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "宏观综合，2026-07-07：区域银行资本约束、2026下半年社融、地方化债承接与红利利率锚",
          "summary": "宏观综合，2026-07-07：区域银行资本约束、2026下半年社融、地方化债承接与红利利率锚",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-04b1de878a88/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "理财赎回波及下央行数量宽松对国债曲线的影响及L3压力下短端信用与地方债久期重构测算",
          "summary": "理财赎回波及下央行数量宽松对国债曲线的影响及L3压力下短端信用与地方债久期重构测算",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d2bb97decd06/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "601939.SH",
        "601288.SH",
        "3988.HK",
        "600900.SH",
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "000001.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-9e97140446",
      "title": "中国电力设备出海进入订单质量与政策筛选期",
      "titleEn": "Chinese power-equipment exports enter an order-quality and policy filter phase",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9e97140446/",
      "laneId": "lane_e4b72516d71a",
      "lane": "中国电力设备出海",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-power-equipment-exports/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 49,
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      "risks": 3,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "全球宏观分析报告：A股电力设备出海地缘壁垒与国内“算电协同”政策对冲的压力测试",
          "summary": "全球宏观分析报告：A股电力设备出海地缘壁垒与国内“算电协同”政策对冲的压力测试 报告日期：2026-07-07 研究员：全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst - china-macro)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8961e9dcd312/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "电网设备、受监管电力与能源现金流的 A 股最终仓位执行",
          "summary": "日期： 2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡工作日） 作者： 首席策略师 (chief-strategist) 研究来源：已归档 局执行卡） 立场： 综合（把 既有研究记录 落地...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-52238dc63707/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 电网出海与电力红利组合的筹码拥挤度与A股微观结构风险",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 电网出海与电力红利组合的筹码拥挤度与A股微观结构风险 首席策略师 · 2026-07-07（Asia/Singapore）· 立场：综合判断（synthesize）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c260a44f53a3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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        "600089.SH",
        "601179.SH",
        "ETN",
        "GEV",
        "002270.SZ",
        "688676.SH",
        "ABBNY",
        "600406.SH"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-1aaa752ed4",
      "title": "AI 电力与电网瓶颈仍是基础设施主线",
      "titleEn": "AI power and grid bottlenecks remain the infrastructure core",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-1aaa752ed4/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 45,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Time-to-Power 溢价在 A/H 公用事业与电网设备中的定价分布",
          "summary": "Time-to-Power 溢价在 A/H 公用事业与电网设备中的定价分布",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-756e06aa5d45/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "全球宏观分析报告：A股电力设备出海地缘壁垒与国内“算电协同”政策对冲的压力测试",
          "summary": "全球宏观分析报告：A股电力设备出海地缘壁垒与国内“算电协同”政策对冲的压力测试 报告日期：2026-07-07 研究员：全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst - china-macro)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8961e9dcd312/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI 时代电网配电侧核心设备供应瓶颈与并网周期研究",
          "summary": "AI 时代电网配电侧核心设备供应瓶颈与并网周期研究 分析师： 公用事业分析师 (utilities-analyst) 发布日期： 2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cb1a59f32d25/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "ETN",
        "VST",
        "CEG",
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        "META",
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        "MSFT",
        "601179.SH",
        "AMZN"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4f541b33ff",
      "title": "美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f541b33ff/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 — 日元套利平仓阈值与USD/JPY传导机制",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-07，我的压力测试结论是：USD/JPY在162附近本身不足以触发系统性套利平仓；更高置信度的触发组合是三件事同时出现：即期汇率跌破158、当前274bp的美日2年期利差压缩至...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9538e48b0b67/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 — USD/JPY在162附近与日本抛售储备美债干预风险 [S1]",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 — USD/JPY在162附近与日本抛售储备美债干预风险 [S1]",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-904307f5ff66/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e4e956cd41",
      "title": "通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e4e956cd41/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 — USD/JPY在162附近与日本抛售储备美债干预风险 [S1]",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 — USD/JPY在162附近与日本抛售储备美债干预风险 [S1]",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-904307f5ff66/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 — 日元套利平仓阈值与USD/JPY传导机制",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-07，我的压力测试结论是：USD/JPY在162附近本身不足以触发系统性套利平仓；更高置信度的触发组合是三件事同时出现：即期汇率跌破158、当前274bp的美日2年期利差压缩至...",
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-950a54ea98",
      "title": "保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-950a54ea98/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 — USD/JPY在162附近与日本抛售储备美债干预风险 [S1]",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 — USD/JPY在162附近与日本抛售储备美债干预风险 [S1]",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-904307f5ff66/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 — 日元套利平仓阈值与USD/JPY传导机制",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-07，我的压力测试结论是：USD/JPY在162附近本身不足以触发系统性套利平仓；更高置信度的触发组合是三件事同时出现：即期汇率跌破158、当前274bp的美日2年期利差压缩至...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9538e48b0b67/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-0e8748c14f",
      "title": "科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e8748c14f/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股科技与半导体两融出清：科创50再入场阈值",
          "summary": "A股科技与半导体两融出清：科创50再入场阈值 作者： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 日期： 2026-07-07 (Asia/Singapore) 研究记录索引： 02/08 当前立场： 否定 - 否定现在即可重新买入高拥...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-04fa8c12df70/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 半导体与AI算力链：政策资金托底与解禁压力评估",
          "summary": "报告日期：2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师：semiconductors-analyst 半导体分析师 分析立场：综合（Synthesize）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e10e5150b7b0/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688256.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "688012.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b6e4c7b469",
      "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b6e4c7b469/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "北美与在岸AI算力园区的“电力锁定”与并网分化微观审计",
          "summary": "北美与在岸AI算力园区的“电力锁定”与并网分化微观审计 报告日期： 2026-07-07 作者： AI基础设施分析师 ( ai-infrastructure-analyst )",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f6478e40a9da/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "公用事业分析师专题研究报告：电力系统容纳力与公用事业重估：变压器交期约束下的绿电并网与高价容...",
          "summary": "公用事业分析师专题研究报告：电力系统容纳力与公用事业重估：变压器交期约束下的绿电并网与高价容量电费承销 — 2026-07-07",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-baa6c02db950/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "VST",
        "CEG",
        "002028.SZ",
        "600089.SH",
        "601179.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d74ae315e8",
      "title": "当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d74ae315e8/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 — USD/JPY在162附近与日本抛售储备美债干预风险 [S1]",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 — USD/JPY在162附近与日本抛售储备美债干预风险 [S1]",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-904307f5ff66/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 — 日元套利平仓阈值与USD/JPY传导机制",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-07，我的压力测试结论是：USD/JPY在162附近本身不足以触发系统性套利平仓；更高置信度的触发组合是三件事同时出现：即期汇率跌破158、当前274bp的美日2年期利差压缩至...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9538e48b0b67/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-29b1c0d6c7",
      "title": "日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-29b1c0d6c7/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 — 日元套利平仓阈值与USD/JPY传导机制",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-07，我的压力测试结论是：USD/JPY在162附近本身不足以触发系统性套利平仓；更高置信度的触发组合是三件事同时出现：即期汇率跌破158、当前274bp的美日2年期利差压缩至...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9538e48b0b67/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 — USD/JPY在162附近与日本抛售储备美债干预风险 [S1]",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 — USD/JPY在162附近与日本抛售储备美债干预风险 [S1]",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-904307f5ff66/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-5be4c31f4e",
      "title": "6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5be4c31f4e/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储“无指引”灵活性转型对全球长端债市波动与跨资产溢出冲击评估报告",
          "summary": "报告日期：2026-07-07 (亚洲/新加坡时间) 分析席位：全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst) 门户会商 ID：[source-id-redacted] 研究研究记录 立场：支持 (Support) — 支持并...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f576c5dd6775/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "跨资产账户的货币腿重定价：鸽派美联储转向与霍尔木兹海峡再封锁尾部风险下的美元、人民币与套息交...",
          "summary": "跨资产账户的货币腿重定价：鸽派美联储转向与霍尔木兹海峡再封锁尾部风险下的美元、人民币与套息交易路径",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3a4d5fa96d69/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4be65dd130",
      "title": "基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4be65dd130/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储在退潮的油价冲击中转鹰——政策失误风险",
          "summary": "分析师： chief-economist（首席经济学家）· 全球宏观周期、CPI/PMI 预测、央行政策 研究记录 工作日期： 2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： initial（初始）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-720792fbe649/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "美联储鹰派按兵不动：非农就业骤降与再通胀粘性夹击下的政策平衡",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-07-07 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 ( global-macro ) 立场： 初始分析 ( initial ) 研究记录索引： 01/10",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9ea0c0640536/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
        "0883.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-fe66302bd9",
      "title": "美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fe66302bd9/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50bc319cf3e3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "summary": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-da79bcf79805/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-27c1e713e6",
      "title": "日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-27c1e713e6/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 — USD/JPY在162附近与日本抛售储备美债干预风险 [S1]",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 — USD/JPY在162附近与日本抛售储备美债干预风险 [S1]",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-904307f5ff66/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 — 日元套利平仓阈值与USD/JPY传导机制",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-07，我的压力测试结论是：USD/JPY在162附近本身不足以触发系统性套利平仓；更高置信度的触发组合是三件事同时出现：即期汇率跌破158、当前274bp的美日2年期利差压缩至...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9538e48b0b67/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-11523cabbd",
      "title": "熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-11523cabbd/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "summary": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-da79bcf79805/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50bc319cf3e3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-6fd1b8808d",
      "title": "资金成本上行与长端利率有锚下的A股风格轮动和金融板块配置",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 资金成本上行与长端利率有锚下的A股风格轮动和金融板块配置",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6fd1b8808d/",
      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "宏观综合，2026-07-07：区域银行资本约束、2026下半年社融、地方化债承接与红利利率锚",
          "summary": "宏观综合，2026-07-07：区域银行资本约束、2026下半年社融、地方化债承接与红利利率锚",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-04b1de878a88/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "A股策略专题：利率走廊中枢下移与理财赎回冲击下——红利资产拥挤度清算研判与红利→成长风格轮动...",
          "summary": "A股策略专题：利率走廊中枢下移与理财赎回冲击下——红利资产拥挤度清算研判与红利→成长风格轮动路径",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7e8948ffa757/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "601088.SH",
        "601398.SH",
        "600941.SH",
        "510880.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-94e0c46a69",
      "title": "USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-94e0c46a69/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "summary": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-da79bcf79805/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50bc319cf3e3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-56d9baf47d",
      "title": "2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-56d9baf47d/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "全球宏观研究报告：美国劳动力市场骤冷与通胀粘性双重挑战——美联储政策抉择及其全球溢出效应",
          "summary": "全球宏观研究报告：美国劳动力市场骤冷与通胀粘性双重挑战——美联储政策抉择及其全球溢出效应",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3686baac664e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "美联储鹰派按兵不动：非农就业骤降与再通胀粘性夹击下的政策平衡",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-07-07 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 ( global-macro ) 立场： 初始分析 ( initial ) 研究记录索引： 01/10",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9ea0c0640536/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-9cd2a72630",
      "title": "在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9cd2a72630/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Warsh 转向：美联储把\"何时降息\"换成了\"要不要加息\"",
          "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 研究记录 · 工作日期： 2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡） 主题： 美国通胀重新加速，以及新任主席 Kevin Warsh 领导下美联储点阵图的鹰派转向",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1c747553e219/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "美联储在退潮的油价冲击中转鹰——政策失误风险",
          "summary": "分析师： chief-economist（首席经济学家）· 全球宏观周期、CPI/PMI 预测、央行政策 研究记录 工作日期： 2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： initial（初始）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-720792fbe649/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "JPM",
        "TLT",
        "IEF"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-7a72c14c0e",
      "title": "离岸收紧目前更可能触发局部高拥挤板块去杠杆，而非A股全市场两融踩踏；红利低波守底仓，资源股只做流动性凸性腿。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 离岸收紧目前更可能触发局部高拥挤板块去杠杆，而非A股全市场两融踩踏；红利低波守底仓，资源股只做流动性凸性腿。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a72c14c0e/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50bc319cf3e3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "summary": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-da79bcf79805/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "9988.HK",
        "0700.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-0bad2eebc1",
      "title": "北美大型云厂商因53个月并网等待和PJM容量价格触及上限，面临80-290bn的Capex下修延期压力，这如何重塑全球AI算力及AS…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 北美大型云厂商因53个月并网等待和PJM容量价格触及上限，面临80-290bn的Capex下修延期压力，这如何重塑全球AI算力及AS…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0bad2eebc1/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "summary": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-47ba22d32171/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 A股落地：把全球AI气穴对冲翻译成等权、红利质量、电网设备与低两融科技四篮子",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 A股落地：把全球AI气穴对冲翻译成等权、红利质量、电网设备与低两融科技四篮子",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8466b7f2ff1a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "002028.SZ",
        "600089.SH",
        "ETN",
        "CEG",
        "601179.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-87af28db3e",
      "title": "宇航电源份额与卫星交付驱动电科蓝天兑现",
      "titleEn": "Space-Power Share and Satellite Deliveries Drive CETC Solar Energy Monetization",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-87af28db3e/",
      "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f",
      "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 74,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "国内LEO星座发射与卫星总装节奏能否把GaAs空间电池在手订单兑现为2026年收入？",
          "summary": "国内LEO星座发射与卫星总装节奏能否把GaAs空间电池在手订单兑现为2026年收入？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9bd34ab06125/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "GaAs/InP化合物半导体材料链真实收入弹性核验",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-07（Asia/Singapore）· 研究记录 · 立场：支持（并收窄）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-441c5cca56a1/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "RKLB",
        "ASTS",
        "RDW",
        "LUNR",
        "IRDM",
        "LMT"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d8170c3a35",
      "title": "近海资本开支与设备利用率驱动油服盈利弹性",
      "titleEn": "Offshore capex and equipment utilization drive oilfield-service earnings leverage",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d8170c3a35/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 68,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "把退潮的油价冲击翻译成一本跨资产账户——久期、盈亏平衡/TIPS、能源敞口与霍尔木兹尾部",
          "summary": "把退潮的油价冲击翻译成一本跨资产账户——久期、盈亏平衡/TIPS、能源敞口与霍尔木兹尾部",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5fc665d77503/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "XOM 行业定位",
          "summary": "本报告已先读取 01 公司概况.md 与 02 财务数据.md。XOM 指 Exxon Mobil Corporation；行业定位以综合油气与石化价值链为主，主要覆盖上游油气、炼油/成品油、化工与特种产品 [S1]。同业表选择...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c6c1fad50ff/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "CVX",
        "XOM",
        "0883.HK",
        "COP",
        "2883.HK",
        "SLB",
        "OXY"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b13b8604a5",
      "title": "美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13b8604a5/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-09 A股商业航天两融与解禁压力测试",
          "summary": "工作日期： 2026-07-09。本报告 支持 前两张卡从商业航天 beta 转向订单验证和结构阿尔法的主线，但把交易层面的结论收紧为：当前不是全市场两融系统性踩踏，而是商业航天内部的 个股融资盘、双...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b198c0486380/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "日元套利平仓螺旋压力测试：JPY 波动率期限结构、风险逆转偏斜、CCS 基差传导与离岸美元融资成本（...",
          "summary": "日元套利平仓螺旋压力测试：JPY 波动率期限结构、风险逆转偏斜、CCS 基差传导与离岸美元融资成本（报告日期：2026-07-07）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-baba5b3bddf5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "KWEB",
        "FXY"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a3cb9196a0",
      "title": "随着AI算力扩建撞上电力电网并网物理速度墙，变压器与硅钢（GOES）结构性缺口高达30%，投产延迟WACC损失巨大，形成约35倍的经济杠…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 随着AI算力扩建撞上电力电网并网物理速度墙，变压器与硅钢（GOES）结构性缺口高达30%，投产延迟WACC损失巨大，形成约35倍的经济杠…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a3cb9196a0/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 将全球AI电力瓶颈映射至A股风格轮动",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 将全球AI电力瓶颈映射至A股风格轮动 首席策略师 · 2026-07-07（Asia/Singapore）· 立场：综合判断（synthesize）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-162198564c96/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "summary": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-47ba22d32171/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "002028.SZ",
        "ETN",
        "601179.SH",
        "600089.SH",
        "688676.SH",
        "CEG"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-c2eb2a0b9d",
      "title": "AI 租赁营收的兑现并非取决于芯片购买量，而是取决于长达 2-4 年的电力交付周期，物理稀缺性正成为限制营收增速的硬顶。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI 租赁营收的兑现并非取决于芯片购买量，而是取决于长达 2-4 年的电力交付周期，物理稀缺性正成为限制营收增速的硬顶。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c2eb2a0b9d/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "专题研究报告：中国AI算力基础设施的电力交付与并网可靠性评估",
          "summary": "专题研究报告：中国AI算力基础设施的电力交付与并网可靠性评估 报告日期： 2026-07-07 (新加坡) 作者： AI基础设施分析师 (AI Infrastructure Analyst) 研究来源：已归档-...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-355859ec4f36/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "北美与在岸AI算力园区的“电力锁定”与并网分化微观审计",
          "summary": "北美与在岸AI算力园区的“电力锁定”与并网分化微观审计 报告日期： 2026-07-07 作者： AI基础设施分析师 ( ai-infrastructure-analyst )",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f6478e40a9da/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "002028.SZ",
        "601179.SH",
        "600089.SH",
        "CEG",
        "688676.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f3989d02c5",
      "title": "全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f3989d02c5/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "summary": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-47ba22d32171/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 — AI算力基建：交易主线是否从GPU稀缺扩散到电力租约稀缺？",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 — AI算力基建：交易主线是否从GPU稀缺扩散到电力租约稀缺？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-77b6e22a7ea1/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "META",
        "TSM",
        "AMD",
        "AVGO",
        "ASML"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-8b23f98d54",
      "title": "四大云厂商2026年创纪录的7250亿美元CapEx具有强战略刚性，但变压器3-6年交期与电网并网时滞导致800-1100亿美元开支递延…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 四大云厂商2026年创纪录的7250亿美元CapEx具有强战略刚性，但变压器3-6年交期与电网并网时滞导致800-1100亿美元开支递延…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8b23f98d54/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电网“堵塞”重塑超大规模云厂商版图：电力确定性成为新的选址约束与 CAPEX 优先级",
          "summary": "电网“堵塞”重塑超大规模云厂商版图：电力确定性成为新的选址约束与 CAPEX 优先级",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2331ccf57ebf/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "summary": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-47ba22d32171/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "601179.SH",
        "VST",
        "002028.SZ",
        "600089.SH",
        "CEG"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-7a6599a3f5",
      "title": "新一代信息技术国产替代要从信创叙事进入算力、软件与安全订单验证",
      "titleEn": "Domestic IT substitution must move from policy narrative to compute, software, and security order proof",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a6599a3f5/",
      "laneId": "lane_e4f90acbf804",
      "lane": "信创/国产 IT 栈",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/domestic-it-substitution-stack/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 62,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股杠铃策略再平衡：红利与出口Alpha向半导体国产替代袖口的风险预算释放",
          "summary": "A股杠铃策略再平衡：红利与出口Alpha向半导体国产替代袖口的风险预算释放 日期： 2026-07-07 分析师： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) 研究研究记录： 既有研究记录 学术立场： 综...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-65b9b1fd376a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "科创50半导体盈利分母：2026-2027年增速能否把1550-1600点变成估值底？",
          "summary": "科创50半导体盈利分母：2026-2027年增速能否把1550-1600点变成估值底？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-476dbb7511be/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688256.SH",
        "688041.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "300308.SZ",
        "NVDA",
        "000977.SZ",
        "688008.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "688111.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3da7ae5953",
      "title": "宇航电源份额将卫星部署节奏转化为收入弹性",
      "titleEn": "Space-power share converts satellite deployment into revenue leverage",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3da7ae5953/",
      "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f",
      "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 62,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "国内LEO星座发射与卫星总装节奏能否把GaAs空间电池在手订单兑现为2026年收入？",
          "summary": "国内LEO星座发射与卫星总装节奏能否把GaAs空间电池在手订单兑现为2026年收入？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9bd34ab06125/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "GaAs/InP化合物半导体材料链真实收入弹性核验",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-07-07（Asia/Singapore）· 研究记录 · 立场：支持（并收窄）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-441c5cca56a1/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "RKLB",
        "IRDM",
        "LMT",
        "ASTS",
        "600118.SH",
        "LUNR",
        "RDW"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-740e729f22",
      "title": "人民币、美元与套息交易决定跨境风险资产的流动性折价",
      "titleEn": "RMB, USD, and carry trades define the liquidity discount across cross-border risk assets",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-740e729f22/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 47,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "跨资产账户的货币腿重定价：鸽派美联储转向与霍尔木兹海峡再封锁尾部风险下的美元、人民币与套息交...",
          "summary": "跨资产账户的货币腿重定价：鸽派美联储转向与霍尔木兹海峡再封锁尾部风险下的美元、人民币与套息交易路径",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3a4d5fa96d69/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "DXY约98与美联储Higher-for-Longer的可持续性：全球美元路径能否守住人民币升值与对冲逻辑的地基",
          "summary": "DXY约98与美联储Higher-for-Longer的可持续性：全球美元路径能否守住人民币升值与对冲逻辑的地基",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4475eef3254a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "CME",
        "3988.HK",
        "0700.HK",
        "UUP",
        "2800.HK",
        "9988.HK",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-aa97a5c1b3",
      "title": "家装链的胜负手在存量房翻新、国补触达与地产后周期库存去化",
      "titleEn": "Home improvement depends on existing-home renovation, subsidy reach, and post-property inventory digestion",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-aa97a5c1b3/",
      "laneId": "lane_1efa26c729b6",
      "lane": "家装/地产后周期",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/home-improvement-and-post-property-cycle/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 44,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "超脱地产周期：建筑材料产业链在“高端AI材料”与“全球化红利”双轮驱动下的结构性变革",
          "summary": "超脱地产周期：建筑材料产业链在“高端AI材料”与“全球化红利”双轮驱动下的结构性变革",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-72c6952fe22d/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "中国建材产业链收缩背景下A股大消费与红利资产的重配策略",
          "summary": "分析师： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) - 权威工作日期： 2026-07-07 - 研究记录索引： 02/10 - 研究立场： 支持 (支持并细化此前房地产分析师关于建材收缩与红利/大消费重配的逻辑链)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2daacdc3c030/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "002572.SZ",
        "603833.SH",
        "603816.SH",
        "600690.SH",
        "LOW",
        "000333.SZ",
        "002043.SZ",
        "603801.SH",
        "002508.SZ",
        "001322.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4074d8a3d2",
      "title": "碳价、可再生能源与储能 CapEx 正在重塑电力资产回报",
      "titleEn": "Carbon pricing, renewables, and storage capex are reshaping power-asset returns",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4074d8a3d2/",
      "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80",
      "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 42,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "北美与在岸AI算力园区的“电力锁定”与并网分化微观审计",
          "summary": "北美与在岸AI算力园区的“电力锁定”与并网分化微观审计 报告日期： 2026-07-07 作者： AI基础设施分析师 ( ai-infrastructure-analyst )",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f6478e40a9da/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "截至2026-07-07的A股AI电力重估：行业配置与估值映射",
          "summary": "截至2026-07-07的A股AI电力重估：行业配置与估值映射 报告日期： 2026-07-07（Asia/Singapore） 作者： 首席策略师（Chief Strategist） 研究线程标识： [source-id-redacted] 立场...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f6979fbdc8ef/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SMR",
        "002028.SZ",
        "GEV",
        "300750.SZ",
        "600900.SH",
        "MSFT",
        "CEG",
        "300274.SZ",
        "META",
        "VST"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-813fa71c15",
      "title": "科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-813fa71c15/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 84,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股科技与半导体两融出清：科创50再入场阈值",
          "summary": "A股科技与半导体两融出清：科创50再入场阈值 作者： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 日期： 2026-07-07 (Asia/Singapore) 研究记录索引： 02/08 当前立场： 否定 - 否定现在即可重新买入高拥...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-04fa8c12df70/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688256.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688008.SH",
        "688041.SH",
        "688012.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4b64fc19f4",
      "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b64fc19f4/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 — 日元套利平仓阈值与USD/JPY传导机制",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-07，我的压力测试结论是：USD/JPY在162附近本身不足以触发系统性套利平仓；更高置信度的触发组合是三件事同时出现：即期汇率跌破158、当前274bp的美日2年期利差压缩至...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9538e48b0b67/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d03c2555a8",
      "title": "美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d03c2555a8/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 压力测试：Brent跌破$65是否加速红利/油气carry转向半导体B档？",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 压力测试：Brent跌破$65是否加速红利/油气carry转向半导体B档？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-09bff0c357ad/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "SLB",
        "OXY"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-58f268edf9",
      "title": "隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-58f268edf9/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股科技与半导体两融出清：科创50再入场阈值",
          "summary": "A股科技与半导体两融出清：科创50再入场阈值 作者： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 日期： 2026-07-07 (Asia/Singapore) 研究记录索引： 02/08 当前立场： 否定 - 否定现在即可重新买入高拥...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-04fa8c12df70/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688256.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688008.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-80c15f4a7d",
      "title": "再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-80c15f4a7d/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50bc319cf3e3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-07b4ef2695",
      "title": "地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-07b4ef2695/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储在退潮的油价冲击中转鹰——政策失误风险",
          "summary": "分析师： chief-economist（首席经济学家）· 全球宏观周期、CPI/PMI 预测、央行政策 研究记录 工作日期： 2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： initial（初始）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-720792fbe649/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "CVX",
        "XOM"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a4bf9a5c22",
      "title": "在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a4bf9a5c22/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股科技与半导体两融出清：科创50再入场阈值",
          "summary": "A股科技与半导体两融出清：科创50再入场阈值 作者： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 日期： 2026-07-07 (Asia/Singapore) 研究记录索引： 02/08 当前立场： 否定 - 否定现在即可重新买入高拥...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-04fa8c12df70/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
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      "stockTickers": [
        "688256.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688012.SH",
        "688041.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "588000.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-86be10e7fb",
      "title": "为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-86be10e7fb/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50bc319cf3e3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "CVX",
        "XOM"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f0b8d44918",
      "title": "美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f0b8d44918/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50bc319cf3e3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a3440bf2a4",
      "title": "中东停火信号下的油价风险应如何重定价",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中东停火信号下的油价风险应如何重定价",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a3440bf2a4/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储在退潮的油价冲击中转鹰——政策失误风险",
          "summary": "分析师： chief-economist（首席经济学家）· 全球宏观周期、CPI/PMI 预测、央行政策 研究记录 工作日期： 2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： initial（初始）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-720792fbe649/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "SLB",
        "OXY"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e58a9e8746",
      "title": "日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e58a9e8746/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 — 日元套利平仓阈值与USD/JPY传导机制",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-07，我的压力测试结论是：USD/JPY在162附近本身不足以触发系统性套利平仓；更高置信度的触发组合是三件事同时出现：即期汇率跌破158、当前274bp的美日2年期利差压缩至...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9538e48b0b67/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a13f19ec2d",
      "title": "红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a13f19ec2d/",
      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 A股落地：把全球AI气穴对冲翻译成等权、红利质量、电网设备与低两融科技四篮子",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 A股落地：把全球AI气穴对冲翻译成等权、红利质量、电网设备与低两融科技四篮子",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8466b7f2ff1a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "601398.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "510880.SH",
        "600941.SH",
        "601088.SH"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-dfa08317f5",
      "title": "博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-dfa08317f5/",
      "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956",
      "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股科技与半导体两融出清：科创50再入场阈值",
          "summary": "A股科技与半导体两融出清：科创50再入场阈值 作者： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 日期： 2026-07-07 (Asia/Singapore) 研究记录索引： 02/08 当前立场： 否定 - 否定现在即可重新买入高拥...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-04fa8c12df70/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "300308.SZ",
        "300394.SZ",
        "300502.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-5c45703323",
      "title": "AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5c45703323/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "summary": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-47ba22d32171/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "NVDA",
        "AMD",
        "MU",
        "AVGO",
        "TSM",
        "000660.KS"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-0011ad682c",
      "title": "美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0011ad682c/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 — 日元套利平仓阈值与USD/JPY传导机制",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-07，我的压力测试结论是：USD/JPY在162附近本身不足以触发系统性套利平仓；更高置信度的触发组合是三件事同时出现：即期汇率跌破158、当前274bp的美日2年期利差压缩至...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9538e48b0b67/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "JPM",
        "TLT",
        "IEF"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f62e29bf1c",
      "title": "在SpaceX将于6月12日进行股权交易且美债高企下，太空经济是否已告别散户概念炒作，转向由SpaceX价格伞、国防合同与垂直整合总装定…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在SpaceX将于6月12日进行股权交易且美债高企下，太空经济是否已告别散户概念炒作，转向由SpaceX价格伞、国防合同与垂直整合总装定…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f62e29bf1c/",
      "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f",
      "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-09 A股商业航天两融与解禁压力测试",
          "summary": "工作日期： 2026-07-09。本报告 支持 前两张卡从商业航天 beta 转向订单验证和结构阿尔法的主线，但把交易层面的结论收紧为：当前不是全市场两融系统性踩踏，而是商业航天内部的 个股融资盘、双...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b198c0486380/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600118.SH",
        "RKLB",
        "ASTS",
        "RDW",
        "300762.SZ",
        "LUNR"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-03dab97a77",
      "title": "人民币稳定使当前应保留滞胀杠铃，但用黄金、久期与轻USD对冲把组合从单一A股Beta改造成可按黄/红档汇率阶梯再平衡的跨资产防御组合。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币稳定使当前应保留滞胀杠铃，但用黄金、久期与轻USD对冲把组合从单一A股Beta改造成可按黄/红档汇率阶梯再平衡的跨资产防御组合。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-03dab97a77/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "summary": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-da79bcf79805/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-0e520ff02a",
      "title": "能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e520ff02a/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "把退潮的油价冲击翻译成一本跨资产账户——久期、盈亏平衡/TIPS、能源敞口与霍尔木兹尾部",
          "summary": "把退潮的油价冲击翻译成一本跨资产账户——久期、盈亏平衡/TIPS、能源敞口与霍尔木兹尾部",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5fc665d77503/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "CVX",
        "XOM",
        "SLB"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-eefbf1a467",
      "title": "中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-eefbf1a467/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "summary": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-da79bcf79805/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-2e367ef854",
      "title": "美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2e367ef854/",
      "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08",
      "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "通胀粘性叠加就业放缓下的跨资产配置：为 7 月 FOMC 偏鹰维持利率布局",
          "summary": "通胀粘性叠加就业放缓下的跨资产配置：为 7 月 FOMC 偏鹰维持利率布局",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5247bf8e5de6/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "XLE",
        "XLU",
        "TLT"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-08b70be7bf",
      "title": "在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08b70be7bf/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 欧美壁垒下A股电力设备、绿色数据中心、UHV/电网自动化与半导体国产化再配比 [S0]",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 欧美壁垒下A股电力设备、绿色数据中心、UHV/电网自动化与半导体国产化再配比 [S0]",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fad5d96962fb/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "002028.SZ",
        "ETN",
        "600089.SH",
        "601179.SH",
        "688676.SH",
        "VST"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-594ba5e705",
      "title": "在中美利差走阔且输入型AI信用冲击升级的情形下，USD/CNY能否守住6.85缓冲翻转线",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在中美利差走阔且输入型AI信用冲击升级的情形下，USD/CNY能否守住6.85缓冲翻转线",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-594ba5e705/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "summary": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-da79bcf79805/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e40b25962e",
      "title": "A股“大行+红利/稀缺成长”哑铃配置在低杠杆与高可视度Backlog支撑下并未拥挤，而弱区域中小银行因资产质量二阶传导滞后与重度稀释风险…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股“大行+红利/稀缺成长”哑铃配置在低杠杆与高可视度Backlog支撑下并未拥挤，而弱区域中小银行因资产质量二阶传导滞后与重度稀释风险…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e40b25962e/",
      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股杠铃策略再平衡：红利与出口Alpha向半导体国产替代袖口的风险预算释放",
          "summary": "A股杠铃策略再平衡：红利与出口Alpha向半导体国产替代袖口的风险预算释放 日期： 2026-07-07 分析师： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) 研究研究记录： 既有研究记录 学术立场： 综...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-65b9b1fd376a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "601398.SH",
        "601088.SH",
        "600941.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-c951442d7f",
      "title": "日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c951442d7f/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 — 日元套利平仓阈值与USD/JPY传导机制",
          "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-07-07，我的压力测试结论是：USD/JPY在162附近本身不足以触发系统性套利平仓；更高置信度的触发组合是三件事同时出现：即期汇率跌破158、当前274bp的美日2年期利差压缩至...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9538e48b0b67/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-97f10202a2",
      "title": "中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-97f10202a2/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "summary": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-da79bcf79805/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-57faae4252",
      "title": "能源供应约束对AI基础设施资本开支效率的影响：电力缺口能否支撑超大规模厂商的扩容预期？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源供应约束对AI基础设施资本开支效率的影响：电力缺口能否支撑超大规模厂商的扩容预期？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-57faae4252/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "公用事业分析师专题研究报告：电力系统容纳力与公用事业重估：变压器交期约束下的绿电并网与高价容...",
          "summary": "公用事业分析师专题研究报告：电力系统容纳力与公用事业重估：变压器交期约束下的绿电并网与高价容量电费承销 — 2026-07-07",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-baa6c02db950/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "VST",
        "CEG",
        "002028.SZ",
        "600089.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-2ee6c1cf01",
      "title": "39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2ee6c1cf01/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50bc319cf3e3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3156277f22",
      "title": "哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3156277f22/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50bc319cf3e3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-413f4aecc1",
      "title": "长江电力等红利拥挤度处于95%历史极值，且股息率利差压缩至历史低点，而在跨境分段生产解禁及创新药商业化兑现下医药板块大涨，这是否标志着A…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 长江电力等红利拥挤度处于95%历史极值，且股息率利差压缩至历史低点，而在跨境分段生产解禁及创新药商业化兑现下医药板块大涨，这是否标志着A…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-413f4aecc1/",
      "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e",
      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "前序研究 — 电网出海与电力红利组合的筹码拥挤度与A股微观结构风险",
          "summary": "前序研究 — 电网出海与电力红利组合的筹码拥挤度与A股微观结构风险 首席策略师 · 2026-07-07（Asia/Singapore）· 立场：综合判断（synthesize）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c260a44f53a3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "600905.SH",
        "DUK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-2aa156c4c9",
      "title": "2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2aa156c4c9/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50bc319cf3e3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-54a65a88ba",
      "title": "请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-54a65a88ba/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50bc319cf3e3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "UUP",
        "FXI",
        "2800.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-662985737d",
      "title": "在12% HIBOR极端挤空及离岸流动性收紧传导下，将USD/CNH期权套保释放的5374万人民币全额转配至离岸存款以锁定12%高息Ca…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在12% HIBOR极端挤空及离岸流动性收紧传导下，将USD/CNH期权套保释放的5374万人民币全额转配至离岸存款以锁定12%高息Ca…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-662985737d/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50bc319cf3e3/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-250964b5dc",
      "title": "强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-250964b5dc/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50bc319cf3e3/",
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      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-da665e3ee7",
      "title": "在2026-06-26，中国约1.73%的国债收益率托底机制在Warsh强美元政策与三季度2-5万亿地方债/国债供给冲击下不可持续，国债…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-26，中国约1.73%的国债收益率托底机制在Warsh强美元政策与三季度2-5万亿地方债/国债供给冲击下不可持续，国债…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-da665e3ee7/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
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          "summary": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50bc319cf3e3/",
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        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-2a7c29557b",
      "title": "在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2a7c29557b/",
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      "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选",
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          "title": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "summary": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-47ba22d32171/",
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        "TSM",
        "AMD",
        "VRT"
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    {
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      "title": "电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c71e511c1c/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
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      "events": [
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          "title": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "summary": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
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    {
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      "title": "掉期成本翻正使 USD/CNH 远期曲线倒挂，远期由套保工具变为贬值信号；越过 3M CNH HIBOR ≈ 5.3% 拐点后，央行流动…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 掉期成本翻正使 USD/CNH 远期曲线倒挂，远期由套保工具变为贬值信号；越过 3M CNH HIBOR ≈ 5.3% 拐点后，央行流动…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7b4a91628c/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
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      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 外汇卡：人民币对冲套息、USD/CNH 基差与外资在红利—科技成长间的配置倾斜",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50bc319cf3e3/",
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        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-2fe5298427",
      "title": "Sivers (SIVE:STO) 概念被供应链证伪，而国内电子板块融资余额高达5608亿元，四大半导体龙头两融保证金缺口达93.81亿…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Sivers (SIVE:STO) 概念被供应链证伪，而国内电子板块融资余额高达5608亿元，四大半导体龙头两融保证金缺口达93.81亿…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2fe5298427/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 69,
      "supports": 0,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股科技与半导体两融出清：科创50再入场阈值",
          "summary": "A股科技与半导体两融出清：科创50再入场阈值 作者： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 日期： 2026-07-07 (Asia/Singapore) 研究记录索引： 02/08 当前立场： 否定 - 否定现在即可重新买入高拥...",
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        "688041.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "588000.SH"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-40b8638803",
      "title": "全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-40b8638803/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 半导体与AI算力链：政策资金托底与解禁压力评估",
          "summary": "报告日期：2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师：semiconductors-analyst 半导体分析师 分析立场：综合（Synthesize）",
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        "TSM",
        "000660.KS",
        "MU",
        "688012.SH",
        "ASML"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-a10279b001",
      "title": "面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a10279b001/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
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      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 1,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-07-07 — AI算力基建：交易主线是否从GPU稀缺扩散到电力租约稀缺？",
          "summary": "2026-07-07 — AI算力基建：交易主线是否从GPU稀缺扩散到电力租约稀缺？",
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          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "AMD",
        "AVGO"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-d1f5e35b43",
      "title": "2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d1f5e35b43/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
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      "conviction": 66,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "台积电7月16日业绩前瞻：CoWoS/HBM封装产能真能为AI加速器估值兜底吗？（压力测试）",
          "summary": "台积电7月16日业绩前瞻：CoWoS/HBM封装产能真能为AI加速器估值兜底吗？（压力测试）",
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        "TSM",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-b37a11e5a3",
      "title": "FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b37a11e5a3/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
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        {
          "title": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "summary": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
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      "id": "thesis-8bbbcdf5a4",
      "title": "GPU、HBM 与先进封装决定 AI 资本开支供给节奏",
      "titleEn": "GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging shape the AI capex supply cycle",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8bbbcdf5a4/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
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        {
          "title": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "summary": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
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      "id": "thesis-b6f59efde4",
      "title": "包装油占比与原料顺价驱动利润率修复",
      "titleEn": "Packaged-oil mix and input-cost pass-through drive margin recovery",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b6f59efde4/",
      "laneId": "lane_13d7ced85300",
      "lane": "食品加工/成本传导",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-processing-and-input-cost-transmission/",
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      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "绿色食品产业链调研卡 — 2026-07-07",
          "summary": "截至研究院工作日期 2026-07-07，本研究过去 30 日对绿色食品的激活仅为 3/67，即 4.5% [S0]。本报告对前序重复主题做综合，而不是重写定义：新增内容是可投资产业链筛选 [S0]。核心判断支持院...",
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        "603317.SH",
        "002852.SZ",
        "002847.SZ"
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      "title": "酒店餐饮休闲复苏正在从客流修复转向 RevPAR、翻台率与小盘 Alpha",
      "titleEn": "Leisure, hotels, and restaurants are moving from traffic recovery to RevPAR, table turnover, and small-cap alpha",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c89650af9e/",
      "laneId": "lane_dd5a3eb17672",
      "lane": "酒店餐饮休闲/服务消费",
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      "conviction": 65,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "U.S. 需求驱动服务通胀的劳动力/工资地基：能否撑到 2027 并抬高终端利率（压力测试）",
          "summary": "U.S. 需求驱动服务通胀的劳动力/工资地基：能否撑到 2027 并抬高终端利率（压力测试）",
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      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-100e81e234/",
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "summary": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-47ba22d32171/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-bc1d8e9af8",
      "title": "Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bc1d8e9af8/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Warsh 转向：美联储把\"何时降息\"换成了\"要不要加息\"",
          "summary": "分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 研究记录 · 工作日期： 2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡） 主题： 美国通胀重新加速，以及新任主席 Kevin Warsh 领导下美联储点阵图的鹰派转向",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1c747553e219/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4e383ee09c",
      "title": "2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4e383ee09c/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "summary": "HBM4供给闸门与电网瓶颈叠加下AI算力Capex ROI与估值久期重估分析",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-47ba22d32171/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4f2d0121d3",
      "title": "高利润率出口材料企业需等待利润修复确认",
      "titleEn": "High-margin export materials require confirmation of profit recovery",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f2d0121d3/",
      "laneId": "lane_7e439482cbef",
      "lane": "中国出口制造/利润率",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-export-manufacturing-and-margins/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 64,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "工程机械出海压力测试：三一、中联、徐工的海外毛利率、汇率敏感度与关税可持续性评估",
          "summary": "工程机械出海压力测试：三一、中联、徐工的海外毛利率、汇率敏感度与关税可持续性评估",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a530d9ba6a6d/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600690.SH",
        "000333.SZ",
        "600900.SH",
        "002139.SZ",
        "2313.HK",
        "605183.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-8b8ede3135",
      "title": "消费降级、健康刚需与银发经济正在重塑防御型增长",
      "titleEn": "Consumer downgrade, healthcare necessities, and the silver economy are reshaping defensive growth",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8b8ede3135/",
      "laneId": "lane_8cf8740aac77",
      "lane": "消费降级/健康银发",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/consumer-downgrade-health-and-silver-economy/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 62,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "消费分化下的估值脱钩与基本面压力测试：温迪快餐(WEN)逼空行情与餐饮行业的“流动性陷阱”",
          "summary": "消费分化下的估值脱钩与基本面压力测试：温迪快餐(WEN)逼空行情与餐饮行业的“流动性陷阱”",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-efda23e3e1b9/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600519.SH",
        "3690.HK",
        "001215.SZ",
        "600276.SH",
        "300760.SZ",
        "1801.HK",
        "1177.HK",
        "2319.HK",
        "UNH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4b3b37e207",
      "title": "散户情绪与北向资金背离是 A 股风险偏好的关键温度计",
      "titleEn": "Retail sentiment versus northbound flow divergence is the key A-share risk thermometer",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b3b37e207/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 62,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "summary": "CNH离岸融资挤压与USD/CNY 7.30防线：北向流出与两融去杠杆共振的汇率触发条件报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-da79bcf79805/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "588000.SH",
        "300308.SZ",
        "300750.SZ",
        "600519.SH",
        "159915.SZ",
        "510300.SH",
        "688256.SH",
        "600900.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-89c14497ac",
      "title": "期权伽马、ETF 与尾盘流动性正在放大主题交易的微观结构风险",
      "titleEn": "Options gamma, ETFs, and closing liquidity are amplifying microstructure risk in theme trades",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-89c14497ac/",
      "laneId": "lane_2ba2ee6db1ee",
      "lane": "期权伽马/市场微观结构",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/options-gamma-and-market-microstructure/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 62,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "588000 / 588080 科创50ETF期权执行链与希腊值校准",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-07-07（Asia/Singapore 工作日） 分析师： 衍生品策略师（Global Macro 席位代行）— derivatives-strategist 研究来源：已归档 研究记录...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-41295bf8bee9/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "CBOE",
        "CME",
        "HOOD",
        "IBKR",
        "VIRT",
        "VIXY"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-6f42e0fe6e",
      "title": "稀土、铜铝与关键材料正在成为 AI 与新能源共用的供给约束",
      "titleEn": "Rare earths, copper, aluminum, and key materials are becoming shared supply constraints for AI and energy transition",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6f42e0fe6e/",
      "laneId": "lane_8c4a3526fcca",
      "lane": "关键材料/稀土铜铝",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/critical-materials-rare-earths-copper-and-aluminum/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 58,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "收官综合：A股“本地化/自主可控”是可持续的结构性超配，还是依赖休战的交易？",
          "summary": "收官综合：A股“本地化/自主可控”是可持续的结构性超配，还是依赖休战的交易？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3cf43f7ecdf6/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "FCX",
        "GEV",
        "000831.SZ",
        "SCCO",
        "ETN",
        "MP",
        "TECK",
        "600111.SH",
        "600089.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-603a5f7966",
      "title": "A 股硬科技与科创50的复苏需要订单、融资盘和指数结构共振",
      "titleEn": "A-share hard tech and STAR50 recovery needs orders, margin positioning, and index structure to align",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-603a5f7966/",
      "laneId": "lane_4cc1e74d8e5f",
      "lane": "A股硬科技/科创50",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-hard-tech-and-star50/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 56,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股科技与半导体两融出清：科创50再入场阈值",
          "summary": "A股科技与半导体两融出清：科创50再入场阈值 作者： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 日期： 2026-07-07 (Asia/Singapore) 研究记录索引： 02/08 当前立场： 否定 - 否定现在即可重新买入高拥...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-04fa8c12df70/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "300308.SZ",
        "688256.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "600900.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "300394.SZ",
        "002916.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-075017003b",
      "title": "AI 资本开支通过能源、设备和利率进入通胀定价",
      "titleEn": "AI capex enters inflation pricing through energy, equipment, and rates",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-075017003b/",
      "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08",
      "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "stable",
      "directionLabel": "稳定",
      "conviction": 55,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "鹰派按兵不动情景下的跨资产配置优化与A股两融及估值压力测试报告",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-07-07 分析师： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 研究记录索引： 02/10 立场： 综合 (SYNTHESIZE，在利率高企的“鹰派按兵不动”基准情景下，优化大类资产配置，并评估去杠杆...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a245a7e2ba2e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL",
        "XLE",
        "TLT",
        "XLU",
        "NVDA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-21dd72c1b1",
      "title": "航空航天与国防供应链错配正在形成政策驱动的制造业弹性",
      "titleEn": "Aerospace and defense supply-chain mismatch is creating policy-driven manufacturing beta",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-21dd72c1b1/",
      "laneId": "lane_1514a60f727a",
      "lane": "国防航空航天供应链",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/defense-and-aerospace-supply-chain/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 55,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "半导体关税已落地，但出口 Beta 冲击小于 IC 出口高增速表象",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 主题研究员 (thematic-researcher) · 工作日期：2026-07-07（Asia/Singapore） 立场： 压力测试 (stress-test) · 主题： 美国行业专项半导体关税/出口管制对中国半导体进攻腿的冲...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2c71ffbca5b0/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "LMT",
        "RTX",
        "NOC",
        "RKLB",
        "BA",
        "CAT",
        "IRDM",
        "ASTS",
        "HWM"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-08dd090dc9",
      "title": "公用事业从防御红利切换到电网扩容、容量费与信用再定价",
      "titleEn": "Utilities are shifting from defensive dividends to grid expansion, capacity fees, and credit repricing",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08dd090dc9/",
      "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e",
      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 53,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电网设备拥挤退潮下，A股红利型公用事业能否承接资金轮动？",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 作者：A股策略师（ashare-strategist）· 工作日期：2026-07-07（亚洲/新加坡） 主题：电网设备拥挤退潮下，A股红利型公用事业能否承接资金轮动 立场：支持（SUPPORT）——但对\"由...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a5caf76567dc/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "AEP",
        "600900.SH",
        "CEG",
        "DUK",
        "VST",
        "XLU",
        "META",
        "NEE",
        "SMR",
        "GEV"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-66eb42380e",
      "title": "海洋经济的政策催化需要落到船舶订单、海工装备与海上资源现金流",
      "titleEn": "Marine-economy policy support must convert into ship orders, offshore equipment, and offshore-resource cash flow",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-66eb42380e/",
      "laneId": "lane_f8b4918fe5b3",
      "lane": "海洋经济/船舶海工",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/marine-economy-shipbuilding-and-offshore-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 53,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "研究记录 — 海工装备产业链的 A 股配置排序",
          "summary": "研究记录 — 海工装备产业链的 A 股配置排序 首席策略师 工作日期：2026-08-10 立场：synthesize（综合）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-75df54b4f606/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "601890.SH",
        "600150.SH",
        "600938.SH",
        "600583.SH",
        "603727.SH",
        "000039.SZ",
        "0883.HK",
        "300589.SZ",
        "601919.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e9630d3ee1",
      "title": "日元套息平仓是 EM 科技、离岸中资与高 beta 主题的尾部流动性风险",
      "titleEn": "Yen carry unwind is a tail liquidity risk for EM tech, offshore China, and high-beta themes",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e9630d3ee1/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 52,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "跨资产账户的货币腿重定价：鸽派美联储转向与霍尔木兹海峡再封锁尾部风险下的美元、人民币与套息交...",
          "summary": "跨资产账户的货币腿重定价：鸽派美联储转向与霍尔木兹海峡再封锁尾部风险下的美元、人民币与套息交易路径",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3a4d5fa96d69/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "CME",
        "CBOE",
        "LOW",
        "UUP",
        "EEM",
        "FXY",
        "EWJ",
        "MCHI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3d421524cd",
      "title": "油价地缘底线决定再通胀与降息交易的安全边际",
      "titleEn": "The geopolitical oil floor defines the margin of safety for disinflation and rate-cut trades",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3d421524cd/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 50,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "把退潮的油价冲击翻译成一本跨资产账户——久期、盈亏平衡/TIPS、能源敞口与霍尔木兹尾部",
          "summary": "把退潮的油价冲击翻译成一本跨资产账户——久期、盈亏平衡/TIPS、能源敞口与霍尔木兹尾部",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5fc665d77503/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "CME",
        "CVX",
        "XOM",
        "600938.SH",
        "600900.SH",
        "0857.HK",
        "COP",
        "601857.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-c6c6be4745",
      "title": "中国出口制造的胜负手从低价扩张转向利润率、合规和本地化",
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      "ticker": "688041.SH",
      "name": "海光信息",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/688041.SH/",
      "thesisCount": 11,
      "eventCount": 24,
      "lanes": [
        "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
        "信创/国产 IT 栈",
        "A股硬科技/科创50"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "688012.SH",
      "name": "中微公司",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/688012.SH/",
      "thesisCount": 11,
      "eventCount": 24,
      "lanes": [
        "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
        "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
        "信创/国产 IT 栈"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "NVDA",
      "name": "NVIDIA",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/NVDA/",
      "thesisCount": 14,
      "eventCount": 21,
      "lanes": [
        "AI 算力半导体",
        "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选",
        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
        "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
        "信创/国产 IT 栈"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "TLT",
      "name": "iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF",
      "market": "US ETF",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/TLT/",
      "thesisCount": 12,
      "eventCount": 20,
      "lanes": [
        "美债利率/美元再定价",
        "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产",
        "债券供给/银行久期"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "688008.SH",
      "name": "澜起科技",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/688008.SH/",
      "thesisCount": 10,
      "eventCount": 20,
      "lanes": [
        "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
        "信创/国产 IT 栈",
        "A股硬科技/科创50"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "510300.SH",
      "name": "沪深300 ETF",
      "market": "A-share ETF",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/510300.SH/",
      "thesisCount": 6,
      "eventCount": 20,
      "lanes": [
        "A股风险偏好/两融",
        "指数调仓/被动资金事件"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "TSM",
      "name": "TSMC",
      "market": "US ADR",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/TSM/",
      "thesisCount": 16,
      "eventCount": 19,
      "lanes": [
        "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
        "AI 算力半导体",
        "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选",
        "先进封装/HBM4 闸门"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "META",
      "name": "Meta Platforms",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/META/",
      "thesisCount": 10,
      "eventCount": 19,
      "lanes": [
        "AI 算力半导体",
        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
        "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产",
        "公用事业/电网信用",
        "云厂商自发电/电力资产"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "IEF",
      "name": "iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF",
      "market": "US ETF",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/IEF/",
      "thesisCount": 10,
      "eventCount": 18,
      "lanes": [
        "美债利率/美元再定价",
        "债券供给/银行久期"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "688676.SH",
      "name": "金盘科技",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/688676.SH/",
      "thesisCount": 7,
      "eventCount": 18,
      "lanes": [
        "AI 电力/电网设备",
        "中国电力设备出海"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "601398.SH",
      "name": "工商银行",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/601398.SH/",
      "thesisCount": 6,
      "eventCount": 15,
      "lanes": [
        "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
        "债券供给/银行久期"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "MSFT",
      "name": "Microsoft",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/MSFT/",
      "thesisCount": 6,
      "eventCount": 14,
      "lanes": [
        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
        "AI 算力半导体",
        "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产",
        "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
        "AI 电力/电网设备"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "601088.SH",
      "name": "中国神华",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/601088.SH/",
      "thesisCount": 5,
      "eventCount": 12,
      "lanes": [
        "A股红利/硬科技杠铃"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "AMZN",
      "name": "Amazon",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/AMZN/",
      "thesisCount": 5,
      "eventCount": 12,
      "lanes": [
        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
        "AI 算力半导体",
        "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产",
        "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
        "AI 电力/电网设备"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "512100.SH",
      "name": "中证1000 ETF",
      "market": "A-share ETF",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/512100.SH/",
      "thesisCount": 3,
      "eventCount": 11,
      "lanes": [
        "A股风险偏好/两融"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "0883.HK",
      "name": "中国海洋石油",
      "market": "HK",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/0883.HK/",
      "thesisCount": 8,
      "eventCount": 10,
      "lanes": [
        "油气/地缘通胀",
        "海洋经济/船舶海工"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "CME",
      "name": "CME Group",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/CME/",
      "thesisCount": 6,
      "eventCount": 10,
      "lanes": [
        "期权伽马/市场微观结构",
        "食品农业/猪周期",
        "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
        "油气/地缘通胀",
        "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "300308.SZ",
      "name": "中际旭创",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/300308.SZ/",
      "thesisCount": 5,
      "eventCount": 9,
      "lanes": [
        "CPO/光模块/高速互联",
        "A股风险偏好/两融",
        "信创/国产 IT 栈",
        "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
        "A股硬科技/科创50"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "RKLB",
      "name": "Rocket Lab",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/RKLB/",
      "thesisCount": 5,
      "eventCount": 9,
      "lanes": [
        "商业航天/卫星直连",
        "国防航空航天供应链"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "ASTS",
      "name": "AST SpaceMobile",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/ASTS/",
      "thesisCount": 5,
      "eventCount": 9,
      "lanes": [
        "商业航天/卫星直连",
        "国防航空航天供应链"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "FXY",
      "name": "Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust",
      "market": "US ETF",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/FXY/",
      "thesisCount": 6,
      "eventCount": 8,
      "lanes": [
        "日元套息/EM 科技流动性"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "300750.SZ",
      "name": "宁德时代",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/300750.SZ/",
      "thesisCount": 4,
      "eventCount": 8,
      "lanes": [
        "A股风险偏好/两融",
        "中国出口制造/利润率",
        "能源转型/储能光伏"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "DUK",
      "name": "Duke Energy",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/DUK/",
      "thesisCount": 4,
      "eventCount": 8,
      "lanes": [
        "公用事业/电网信用"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "600941.SH",
      "name": "中国移动",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/600941.SH/",
      "thesisCount": 4,
      "eventCount": 8,
      "lanes": [
        "A股红利/硬科技杠铃"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "RDW",
      "name": "Redwire",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/RDW/",
      "thesisCount": 4,
      "eventCount": 8,
      "lanes": [
        "商业航天/卫星直连"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "personas": [],
  "episodes": [],
  "milestones": [
    {
      "date": "2026-07-07",
      "titleZh": "周度全景把研究主线翻译成操作框架",
      "titleEn": "Weekly panorama translates research into an operating frame",
      "summaryZh": "日频变化、thesis、赛道、股票、仓位含义和证伪条件进入同一个周度入口。",
      "href": "/investor/panorama/",
      "color": "orange"
    }
  ],
  "topicCounts": [
    {
      "id": "macro-rates",
      "labelZh": "宏观、通胀与利率",
      "labelEn": "Macro, inflation and rates",
      "color": "red",
      "keywords": [
        "宏观",
        "通胀",
        "inflation",
        "利率",
        "yield",
        "美联储",
        "fed",
        "cpi",
        "pce",
        "美元"
      ],
      "count": 163
    },
    {
      "id": "power-grid",
      "labelZh": "电力与电网",
      "labelEn": "Power and grid",
      "color": "green",
      "keywords": [
        "电力",
        "电网",
        "power",
        "grid",
        "变压器",
        "并网",
        "ppa",
        "核电",
        "电气设备"
      ],
      "count": 36
    },
    {
      "id": "ai-infrastructure",
      "labelZh": "AI 基础设施",
      "labelEn": "AI infrastructure",
      "color": "blue",
      "keywords": [
        "ai 基础设施",
        "ai infrastructure",
        "算力",
        "gpu",
        "数据中心",
        "data center",
        "nvda",
        "nvidia"
      ],
      "count": 18
    },
    {
      "id": "semis-memory",
      "labelZh": "半导体、存储与光互联",
      "labelEn": "Semis, memory and optical",
      "color": "yellow",
      "keywords": [
        "半导体",
        "hbm",
        "存储",
        "memory",
        "cpo",
        "光模块",
        "先进封装",
        "micron",
        "mu"
      ],
      "count": 14
    },
    {
      "id": "china-assets",
      "labelZh": "中国资产与市场结构",
      "labelEn": "China assets and market structure",
      "color": "orange",
      "keywords": [
        "a股",
        "港股",
        "科创50",
        "star50",
        "中国资产",
        "msci",
        "两融",
        "人民币"
      ],
      "count": 6
    }
  ],
  "analystCounts": [
    {
      "label": "未识别",
      "count": 237
    }
  ],
  "categoryCounts": [
    {
      "label": "其他",
      "count": 237
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "contemporaneous": true,
    "note": "This day view is assembled from public, date-stamped AI Institute research contracts."
  }
}