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"excerpt": "中美生物安全法案与出口管制对创新药“CMC去风险化”能力的合规性边界分析", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-4f27bbd629f4", "title": "平行供应链的建设与运营成本是否抵消了时间窗口留存带来的 rNPV 增量？", "date": "2026-06-29", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4f27bbd629f4/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "平行供应链的建设与运营成本是否抵消了时间窗口留存带来的 rNPV 增量？", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-d0b3b8b778a8", "title": "海上风电+UDC：24/7低碳电力合同与并网模式（2026-06-29）", "date": "2026-06-29", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d0b3b8b778a8/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "海上风电+UDC：24/7低碳电力合同与并网模式（2026-06-29）", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "A股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-699b5fa7a3b3", "title": "海洋能源供应能力与AI海底数据中心用电需求匹配性（2026-06-29）", "date": "2026-06-29", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-699b5fa7a3b3/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "海洋能源供应能力与AI海底数据中心用电需求匹配性（2026-06-29）", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-f4f99ba9b817", "title": "电网约束型 AI 电力 CapEx 对结构性电价与核心通胀中枢的宏观传导", "date": "2026-06-29", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f4f99ba9b817/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "电网约束型 AI 电力 CapEx 对结构性电价与核心通胀中枢的宏观传导", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" } ], "discussions": [ { "title": "2026 伊朗战争石油冲击下美联储、欧央行、日本央行的同步转鹰与滞胀风险", "question": "当三大央行在 2026 年 6 月同一周内集体转向加息时，它们是在供给冲击中收紧而非对抗需求过热——这究竟是果断的信誉保卫，还是同步的政策失误？枢纽变量是什么...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "2026年6月美联储、欧央行、日本央行同步转鹰，却在一场正在消退的伊朗战争油价冲击中收紧政策", "question": "三大央行的同步转鹰，是对一次已在回落的供给冲击的过度反应，从而埋下2026年下半年政策过度收紧的风险吗？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI数据中心‘电力荒’：电网接入瓶颈下的超大规模云厂商资本开支与自备电站转型", "question": "在全球超大规模云厂商资本开支屡创新高背景下，电网接入瓶颈如何影响AI基础设施建设进度，并如何倒逼厂商向表后自备电站（BTM）转型？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "AI基础设施分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "Warsh 时代美联储 2026 年 6 月的鹰派范式切换及其对美元、全球利率与中国政策空间的外溢", "question": "Warsh 美联储 6 月的转向是否标志着一次指向 2026 年加息的持久范式切换？它又如何重塑美元、全球利率与正在宽松的中国的政策空间？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "Warsh 联储鹰派转向：6月点阵图从降息翻转为加息，锚定伊朗战争油价冲击", "question": "Warsh 联储这次把点阵图从降息翻转为加息的鹰派转向有多可信？鉴于通胀飙升几乎全由伊朗战争油价冲击驱动，这是否正在酿成一次政策失误？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "产业链调研：大健康产业链（30 日激活率 5.7%, 16/280）", "question": "Investigate the 大健康产业链 industry chain. 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Identify the 3-5 under-covered names with th...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "TMT行业分析师", "noteCount": 3, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "全球三大央行六月决议的分化与共振：美联储鹰派暂停 vs 欧日携手加息下的流动性新变局", "question": "面对美欧日三大央行首次出现反向分化（美联储新政鹰派暂停 vs 欧日央行联袂加息），全球流动性与汇率体系将受到何种冲击？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 3, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" } ], "thesisEvents": [ { "id": "thesis-d09a741710", "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d09a741710/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 5, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "电力设备超额周期下的上游材料供应压力：取向硅钢与电磁线铜的产能瓶颈及利润率压力测试报告", "summary": "电力设备超额周期下的上游材料供应压力：取向硅钢与电磁线铜的产能瓶颈及利润率压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c864c6d4dd15/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "压力测试报告：护城河的成色几何 —— 铜与硅钢价格波动对电力设备厂商毛利率的冲击评估", "summary": "压力测试报告：护城河的成色几何 —— 铜与硅钢价格波动对电力设备厂商毛利率的冲击评估 报告日期： 2026-06-29 分析师： 材料行业分析师 (Steel, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, battery mate...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b49c2ae10901/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "全球关键电力设备（变压器与重型燃机）供应链产能与制造扩产进度分析", "summary": "全球关键电力设备（变压器与重型燃机）供应链产能与制造扩产进度分析 分析日期：2026-06-29 分析师：工业制造分析师 (Industrials Analyst) 立场：压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1140ef31e3de/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "截至2026-06-29的AI基础设施压力测试：公用事业信用风险、电力供应不确定性与新增“中继电力”层", "summary": "截至2026-06-29的AI基础设施压力测试：公用事业信用风险、电力供应不确定性与新增“中继电力”层", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-25a294eb7181/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ce29facfbd", "title": "中国资产定价仍受政策、流动性与风险偏好共同驱动", "titleEn": "China asset pricing remains driven by policy, liquidity, and risk appetite", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ce29facfbd/", "laneId": "lane_a8d9c69ae883", "lane": "中国权益流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-equity-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 52, "supports": 3, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "§1 THESIS", "summary": "author: morning-brief-editor as of: 2026-06-29 market window: pre-open market: AH tickers: [601398, 601939, 600941, 600406, 002028, 600938, 601088, 6…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aeb2d668b919/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "美元强势第二阶段：通往人民币与A股外资流的反身性路径", "summary": "研究来源：已归档 / research note · 分析师： fx-strategist（外汇策略师）· 任务： 跨资产汇率传导 工作日期： 2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场： synthesize（综合）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fc2051fb79d1/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "A股两融去杠杆与北向流动性冲击测试", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-29 分析师： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 看板 / 研究来源：已归档 03/10 研究立场： 支持。支持前序研究关于“更高更久”的美联储限...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6a5521bed502/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "人民币贬值阈值与北向资金去风险的联动压力测试报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-29 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 ( global-macro ) 研究来源：已归档 研究记录索引： 04/10 研究立场： 压力测试 (STRESS-TEST，评估人民币...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d598c17e84d4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "0700.HK", "9988.HK", "510300.SH", "159915.SZ", "300750.SZ", "3988.HK", "588000.SH", "LOW" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a803fa3312", "title": "美联储路径仍是全球资产再定价的总阀门", "titleEn": "The Fed path remains the master valve for global asset repricing", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a803fa3312/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 46, "supports": 1, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-29 — 大类资产配置师：高利率长期化下的久期、美元与能源对冲配置", "summary": "2026-06-29 — 大类资产配置师：高利率长期化下的久期、美元与能源对冲配置", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4434d2f9d55b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "能源通缩压力下的美联储政策路径与通胀预期分析", "summary": "能源通缩压力下的美联储政策路径与通胀预期分析 研究院权威工作日期： 2026-06-29 (亚洲/新加坡) 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 (agy) 立场： 支持 (Support)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-25499b0b5db8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-29 — 全球宏观：霍尔木兹滞胀脉冲下的美联储终端利率与全球流动性拐点", "summary": "2026-06-29 — 全球宏观：霍尔木兹滞胀脉冲下的美联储终端利率与全球流动性拐点", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-27bb2f86e94d/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "全球宏观与外汇策略：美联储终端利率分化下的USD/CNY汇率定价与全球套息交易动态", "summary": "全球宏观与外汇策略：美联储终端利率分化下的USD/CNY汇率定价与全球套息交易动态", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7b787b12bf6c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "TLT", "JPM", "KRE", "GLD", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4074d8a3d2", "title": "碳价、可再生能源与储能 CapEx 正在重塑电力资产回报", "titleEn": "Carbon pricing, renewables, and storage capex are reshaping power-asset returns", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4074d8a3d2/", "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80", "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 42, "supports": 0, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "专题研究报告：海缆与储能成本重估对 AI 基础设施 (UDC) 经济性的传导影响 (2026-06-29)", "summary": "专题研究报告：海缆与储能成本重估对 AI 基础设施 (UDC) 经济性的传导影响 (2026-06-29)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9fc2a14c9758/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — Hyperscaler 能否用配电侧升级或自建储能对冲电力侧的\"隐性税收\"？（2026-06-29）", "summary": "前序研究 — Hyperscaler 能否用配电侧升级或自建储能对冲电力侧的\"隐性税收\"？（2026-06-29）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-575df84b46c3/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI算力基建的扩张边界与电力供应的制约分析", "summary": "AI算力基建的扩张边界与电力供应的制约分析 报告日期：2026-06-29 分析师 ID：ai-infrastructure-analyst 当前立场：压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-af30068c1228/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电网压力测试：配电与电力供应是否构成 AI 建设落地的约束性瓶颈？", "summary": "板块： [source-id-redacted] · 研究记录 · 工作日期： 2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师： 公用事业分析师（ utilities-analyst ）· 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） -...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b2a9db5929c5/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SMR", "002028.SZ", "GEV", "300750.SZ", "600900.SH", "MSFT", "CEG", "300274.SZ", "META", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4ad776c10c", "title": "地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4ad776c10c/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "能源与公用事业高股息资产的防御性及利率敏感度评估：长江电力股息率耐久性压力测试", "summary": "能源与公用事业高股息资产的防御性及利率敏感度评估：长江电力股息率耐久性压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d09fefe67c64/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "高利率与AI电力容量成本通胀背景下的多资产杠铃策略重校准", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-29 分析师 ID： chief-strategist 研究线程标识： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录索引： 07/08 当前立场： 压力测试 (Stress-test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f62d5db3656a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电网约束型 AI 电力 CapEx 对结构性电价与核心通胀中枢的宏观传导", "summary": "电网约束型 AI 电力 CapEx 对结构性电价与核心通胀中枢的宏观传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f4f99ba9b817/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-025e4c0d2d", "title": "复合材料业务修复向利润增长传导", "titleEn": "Composite-Materials Recovery Transmits into Earnings Growth", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-025e4c0d2d/", "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80", "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "海风+UDC产业链：政策驱动利润确定性与补贴退坡风险（2026-06-29）", "summary": "海风+UDC产业链：政策驱动利润确定性与补贴退坡风险（2026-06-29）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cc38b871a4a5/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-29 能源：电力紧缩、能源转型产能约束与铜价独立底部", "summary": "作者： 能源行业分析师 ( energy-analyst ) 工作日期： 2026-06-29（Asia/Singapore） 研究线程标识： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录 立场： 支持，但按期限拆分", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9956714837b6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI驱动的能源转型：截至2026-06-29的核电与天然气微电网约束", "summary": "分析日期： 2026-06-29 (Asia/Singapore) 分析师： energy-analyst 立场： 支持，但加入时间维度与供应链约束 研究记录： 02 / 研究记录", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e8d3efea9240/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300274.SZ", "002028.SZ", "300750.SZ", "002080.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-44cf9d91f6", "title": "中国大健康 Alpha 正从医保压价转向创新药出海、临床确定性与设备刚需", "titleEn": "China healthcare alpha is moving from reimbursement pressure to overseas licensing, clinical certainty, and equipment...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-44cf9d91f6/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 57, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "生命健康与生物科技产业链调研：创新药与生物技术的分化", "summary": "生命健康与生物科技产业链调研：创新药与生物技术的分化 分析日期： 2026-06-29 分析师： Healthcare Analyst (医药行业分析师)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0573aede4acb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "FDA/MRCT 质量门控与生物安全法案压力测试下的中国创新药并购标的筛选（2026–2027）", "summary": "FDA/MRCT 质量门控与生物安全法案压力测试下的中国创新药并购标的筛选（2026–2027）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1d6dec22120c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "中美生物安全法案与出口管制对创新药“CMC去风险化”能力的合规性边界分析", "summary": "中美生物安全法案与出口管制对创新药“CMC去风险化”能力的合规性边界分析", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9cdb84aab85d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "2359.HK", "600276.SH", "1801.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "6990.HK", "300760.SZ", "603259.SH", "1177.HK", "002821.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-740e729f22", "title": "人民币、美元与套息交易决定跨境风险资产的流动性折价", "titleEn": "RMB, USD, and carry trades define the liquidity discount across cross-border risk assets", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-740e729f22/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 47, "supports": 2, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "全球宏观研究研究记录 02：美元走强背景下人民币汇率压力与套利交易风险压力测试 (2026-06-29)", "summary": "全球宏观研究研究记录 02：美元走强背景下人民币汇率压力与套利交易风险压力测试 (2026-06-29)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-053f26e208c8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "§1 THESIS", "summary": "author: morning-brief-editor as of: 2026-06-29 market window: pre-open market: AH tickers: [601398, 601939, 600941, 600406, 002028, 600938, 601088, 6…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aeb2d668b919/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "美元强势第二阶段：通往人民币与A股外资流的反身性路径", "summary": "研究来源：已归档 / research note · 分析师： fx-strategist（外汇策略师）· 任务： 跨资产汇率传导 工作日期： 2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场： synthesize（综合）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fc2051fb79d1/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "3988.HK", "0700.HK", "UUP", "2800.HK", "9988.HK", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f23572dfb8", "title": "Advance th_p_2ca41751 (能源价格冲突引发的全球通胀路径分化): 若 Brent 在停火提案与航运威胁之间维持 85…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Advance th_p_2ca41751 (能源价格冲突引发的全球通胀路径分化): 若 Brent 在停火提案与航运威胁之间维持 85…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f23572dfb8/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "能源冲击的持续性与通胀路径：从供给端压力测试\"冲击消退\"论", "summary": "研究记录 分析师： energy-analyst（能源行业分析师） 工作日期： 2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡；已用 shell 确认） 立场： stress-test（压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-447427ad389f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "06-29 — 能源行业分析师：霍尔木兹情景下的布伦特路径建模、通胀传导与对冲...", "summary": "既有研究记录-06-29 — 能源行业分析师：霍尔木兹情景下的布伦特路径建模、通胀传导与对冲仓位规模", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d75400e33613/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "0857.HK", "SLB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-07b4ef2695", "title": "地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-07b4ef2695/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "「沃什转向」：美联储是在为一场正在退潮的油价冲击打上一场战争吗？", "summary": "研究来源：已归档 / research note · 分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 任务： central bank watch 工作日期： 2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8625b1f6c7b8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "Warsh 联储的鹰派转向：点阵图从\"降息\"翻转为\"加息\"，且锚定于一次油价冲击", "summary": "Warsh 联储的鹰派转向：点阵图从\"降息\"翻转为\"加息\"，且锚定于一次油价冲击", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-afa74c08e253/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CVX", "XOM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-30acb22a10", "title": "电气设备与电力变压器OEM在跨部门稀缺下的定价权与产能填缺口时点", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电气设备与电力变压器OEM在跨部门稀缺下的定价权与产能填缺口时点", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-30acb22a10/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试报告：护城河的成色几何 —— 铜与硅钢价格波动对电力设备厂商毛利率的冲击评估", "summary": "压力测试报告：护城河的成色几何 —— 铜与硅钢价格波动对电力设备厂商毛利率的冲击评估 报告日期： 2026-06-29 分析师： 材料行业分析师 (Steel, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, battery mate...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b49c2ae10901/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力设备超额周期下的上游材料供应压力：取向硅钢与电磁线铜的产能瓶颈及利润率压力测试报告", "summary": "电力设备超额周期下的上游材料供应压力：取向硅钢与电磁线铜的产能瓶颈及利润率压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c864c6d4dd15/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0e520ff02a", "title": "能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e520ff02a/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-29 — 大类资产配置师：高利率长期化下的久期、美元与能源对冲配置", "summary": "2026-06-29 — 大类资产配置师：高利率长期化下的久期、美元与能源对冲配置", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4434d2f9d55b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "能源通缩压力下的美联储政策路径与通胀预期分析", "summary": "能源通缩压力下的美联储政策路径与通胀预期分析 研究院权威工作日期： 2026-06-29 (亚洲/新加坡) 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 (agy) 立场： 支持 (Support)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-25499b0b5db8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CVX", "XOM", "SLB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3cafa5bcd5", "title": "在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cafa5bcd5/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "美元强势第二阶段：通往人民币与A股外资流的反身性路径", "summary": "研究来源：已归档 / research note · 分析师： fx-strategist（外汇策略师）· 任务： 跨资产汇率传导 工作日期： 2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场： synthesize（综合）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fc2051fb79d1/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "受人民币与境外额度约束的A股组合：商品+CTA危机阿尔法敞口的境内可投资复制", "summary": "受人民币与境外额度约束的A股组合：商品+CTA危机阿尔法敞口的境内可投资复制", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-63db65c6c4fa/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-08b70be7bf", "title": "在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08b70be7bf/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI算力扩容下电力设备的利润质量：压力测试“订单驱动→利润驱动”的跨越", "summary": "报告日期： 2026年06月29日（Asia/Singapore；本地 shell 工作日期已确认）[自测算] 首席分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst 研究记录 立场： 压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1dd8fb5504de/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力设备超额周期下的上游材料供应压力：取向硅钢与电磁线铜的产能瓶颈及利润率压力测试报告", "summary": "电力设备超额周期下的上游材料供应压力：取向硅钢与电磁线铜的产能瓶颈及利润率压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c864c6d4dd15/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5be4c31f4e", "title": "6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5be4c31f4e/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "同步转鹰：2026 年伊朗战争石油冲击如何迫使美联储、欧央行与日本央行在供给冲击中收紧", "summary": "同步转鹰：2026 年伊朗战争石油冲击如何迫使美联储、欧央行与日本央行在供给冲击中收紧", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2559ecccf713/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：这是一次范式切换，而非鹰派按兵", "summary": "研究记录 01 / 分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 工作日期： 2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡时区） 主题： 新任主席 Kevin Warsh 主持的 2026 年 6 月 FOMC——一次鹰派范式切换及其跨资产/...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8bc5f4630e25/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b3e89f22e6", "title": "在极端关税与30%原料通胀的压力下，全球电网设备（利用率98%、美交期128周）的硬约束赋予A股厂商极强的定价权与贸易规避弹性，其出口高…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在极端关税与30%原料通胀的压力下，全球电网设备（利用率98%、美交期128周）的硬约束赋予A股厂商极强的定价权与贸易规避弹性，其出口高…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b3e89f22e6/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "电力设备超额周期下的上游材料供应压力：取向硅钢与电磁线铜的产能瓶颈及利润率压力测试报告", "summary": "电力设备超额周期下的上游材料供应压力：取向硅钢与电磁线铜的产能瓶颈及利润率压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c864c6d4dd15/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI算力电网物理约束常态化下，A股电力/电网设备与低估值TMT的板块轮动与估值再平衡机制", "summary": "AI算力电网物理约束常态化下，A股电力/电网设备与低估值TMT的板块轮动与估值再平衡机制", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-92c1d0842628/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "GEV", "688676.SH", "ETN", "000400.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-db4939d8d8", "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db4939d8d8/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI数据中心“电力荒”：电网接入瓶颈下的超大规模云厂商资本开支与自备电站转型", "summary": "AI数据中心“电力荒”：电网接入瓶颈下的超大规模云厂商资本开支与自备电站转型", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-757503d12889/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI驱动的能源转型：截至2026-06-29的核电与天然气微电网约束", "summary": "分析日期： 2026-06-29 (Asia/Singapore) 分析师： energy-analyst 立场： 支持，但加入时间维度与供应链约束 研究记录： 02 / 研究记录", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e8d3efea9240/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "CEG", "VST", "ETN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2a7c29557b", "title": "在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2a7c29557b/", "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87", "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI基础设施研究报告：电力与散热系统CapEx护城河 vs. 中游机械行业周期性收缩压力评估", "summary": "AI基础设施研究报告：电力与散热系统CapEx护城河 vs. 中游机械行业周期性收缩压力评估 报告日期： 2026-06-29 分析师： AI基础设施分析师 (AI Infrastructure Analyst) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-84f9eb58697d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "PQC 硬件加速对大规模 GPU 集群能效比与网络拓扑扩展性的边际压力测试报告", "summary": "PQC 硬件加速对大规模 GPU 集群能效比与网络拓扑扩展性的边际压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7b60a2fc5e63/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "VRT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-31f32af77b", "title": "中国云与国产算力栈的关键不是模型热度，而是训练/推理订单、服务器交付和生态锁定", "titleEn": "China cloud and local compute stacks depend less on model hype than training/inference orders, server delivery, and e...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-31f32af77b/", "laneId": "lane_2997650d0638", "lane": "中国云/国产算力栈", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-cloud-and-local-compute-stack/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "能效与电力之墙：压力测试国产算力芯片代际差距下的电网承载力与能效边界", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-29（新加坡/东八区 - 研究院基准工作日） - 研究来源：已归档 - 研究记录位置： 第 8 张，共 10 张 核心立场：压力测试 (Stress-Test) -...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-419978d9471f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "§1 THESIS", "summary": "author: morning-brief-editor as of: 2026-06-29 market window: pre-open market: AH tickers: [601398, 601939, 600941, 600406, 002028, 600938, 601088, 6…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aeb2d668b919/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "300308.SZ", "601138.SH", "0981.HK", "688981.SH", "000977.SZ", "9988.HK", "NVDA", "0700.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-df608ec2a1", "title": "AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-df608ec2a1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "全球关键电力设备（变压器与重型燃机）供应链产能与制造扩产进度分析", "summary": "全球关键电力设备（变压器与重型燃机）供应链产能与制造扩产进度分析 分析日期：2026-06-29 分析师：工业制造分析师 (Industrials Analyst) 立场：压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1140ef31e3de/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI算力电网物理约束常态化下，A股电力/电网设备与低估值TMT的板块轮动与估值再平衡机制", "summary": "AI算力电网物理约束常态化下，A股电力/电网设备与低估值TMT的板块轮动与估值再平衡机制", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-92c1d0842628/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "GEV", "600089.SH", "ETN", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c2eb2a0b9d", "title": "AI 租赁营收的兑现并非取决于芯片购买量，而是取决于长达 2-4 年的电力交付周期，物理稀缺性正成为限制营收增速的硬顶。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI 租赁营收的兑现并非取决于芯片购买量，而是取决于长达 2-4 年的电力交付周期，物理稀缺性正成为限制营收增速的硬顶。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c2eb2a0b9d/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "能效与电力之墙：压力测试国产算力芯片代际差距下的电网承载力与能效边界", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-29（新加坡/东八区 - 研究院基准工作日） - 研究来源：已归档 - 研究记录位置： 第 8 张，共 10 张 核心立场：压力测试 (Stress-Test) -...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-419978d9471f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI算力电网物理约束常态化下，A股电力/电网设备与低估值TMT的板块轮动与估值再平衡机制", "summary": "AI算力电网物理约束常态化下，A股电力/电网设备与低估值TMT的板块轮动与估值再平衡机制", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-92c1d0842628/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "601179.SH", "600089.SH", "CEG", "688676.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a119a01ce4", "title": "评估AI算力能耗增长对电力与电网瓶颈的影响，以及能源成本压力如何传导至下游CXO产业链。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 评估AI算力能耗增长对电力与电网瓶颈的影响，以及能源成本压力如何传导至下游CXO产业链。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a119a01ce4/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "截至2026-06-29的AI基础设施压力测试：公用事业信用风险、电力供应不确定性与新增“中继电力”层", "summary": "截至2026-06-29的AI基础设施压力测试：公用事业信用风险、电力供应不确定性与新增“中继电力”层", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-25a294eb7181/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-29 AI基础设施：AI算力扩张与电网建设对铜、铝等金属需求增量的压力测试", "summary": "2026-06-29 AI基础设施：AI算力扩张与电网建设对铜、铝等金属需求增量的压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e985f0df0b14/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "002028.SZ", "CEG", "601179.SH", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8b8ede3135", "title": "消费降级、健康刚需与银发经济正在重塑防御型增长", "titleEn": "Consumer downgrade, healthcare necessities, and the silver economy are reshaping defensive growth", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8b8ede3135/", "laneId": "lane_8cf8740aac77", "lane": "消费降级/健康银发", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/consumer-downgrade-health-and-silver-economy/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "禁酒令政策溢出 —— 次高端白酒需求坍塌与消费宏观大盘研判", "summary": "研究研究记录 · 工作日期：2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡） 作者：全球宏观分析师（global-macro）· 立场：support（承接并延伸研究记录 01 的跨链外溢主线） 任务： 研判升级版禁酒令对 300–800...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4522362b8416/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "周期性低谷还是结构性新常态？压力测试\"消费降级\"论点，并测算2026下半年财政对冲的有效边界", "summary": "周期性低谷还是结构性新常态？压力测试\"消费降级\"论点，并测算2026下半年财政对冲的有效边界", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1c403eb5913b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600519.SH", "3690.HK", "001215.SZ", "600276.SH", "300760.SZ", "1801.HK", "1177.HK", "2319.HK", "UNH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4b3b37e207", "title": "散户情绪与北向资金背离是 A 股风险偏好的关键温度计", "titleEn": "Retail sentiment versus northbound flow divergence is the key A-share risk thermometer", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b3b37e207/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试：250–500亿美元权益净流出对A股两融、北向资金与流动性的冲击", "summary": "压力测试：250–500亿美元权益净流出对A股两融、北向资金与流动性的冲击", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cbea806aa943/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股两融去杠杆与北向流动性冲击测试", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-29 分析师： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 看板 / 研究来源：已归档 03/10 研究立场： 支持。支持前序研究关于“更高更久”的美联储限...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6a5521bed502/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "300308.SZ", "300750.SZ", "600519.SH", "159915.SZ", "510300.SH", "688256.SH", "600900.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-fd31cc177b", "title": "债券供给、地方债与久期需求决定利率下行空间", "titleEn": "Bond supply, local-government debt, and duration demand define room for rates to fall", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fd31cc177b/", "laneId": "lane_6fbf93c613f9", "lane": "债券供给/银行久期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/bond-supply-and-bank-duration/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 54, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "化债置换与LPR下调对银行NIM及信贷传导约束的压力测试报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-29（亚太/新加坡 - 机构权威工作日） 研究来源：已归档 共享会话路由： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录位置： 研究记录...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-89c52a75e477/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "银行息差收窄与化债置换约束下的多资产组合久期与红利权重再优化报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-29（亚太/新加坡，机构权威工作日） - 研究来源：已归档 - 共享会议路由： [source-id-redacted] - 研究记录位置： 研...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6c9cbeeac2fd/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601398.SH", "601939.SH", "601288.SH", "3988.HK", "600900.SH", "TLT", "IEF", "000001.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-66eb42380e", "title": "海洋经济的政策催化需要落到船舶订单、海工装备与海上资源现金流", "titleEn": "Marine-economy policy support must convert into ship orders, offshore equipment, and offshore-resource cash flow", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-66eb42380e/", "laneId": "lane_f8b4918fe5b3", "lane": "海洋经济/船舶海工", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/marine-economy-shipbuilding-and-offshore-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "海洋经济+UDC+海风\"固化\"产业链：A股可投资标的地图与配置节奏（2026-06-29）", "summary": "海洋经济+UDC+海风\"固化\"产业链：A股可投资标的地图与配置节奏（2026-06-29）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fc917ff921a9/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "产业链调研报告：新华财经-海洋经济产业链 (2026-06-29)", "summary": "1. 导言与宏观背景 根据国家海洋信息中心于2026年6月10日发布的《2026中国海洋经济发展指数》，2025年中国海洋经济发展指数达到128.8，同比增长2.2% [S1]。这表明我国海洋实体经济正处于稳健的...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ddf874bfc98c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601890.SH", "600150.SH", "600938.SH", "600583.SH", "603727.SH", "000039.SZ", "0883.HK", "300589.SZ", "601919.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9e97140446", "title": "中国电力设备出海进入订单质量与政策筛选期", "titleEn": "Chinese power-equipment exports enter an order-quality and policy filter phase", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9e97140446/", "laneId": "lane_e4b72516d71a", "lane": "中国电力设备出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-power-equipment-exports/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试报告：护城河的成色几何 —— 铜与硅钢价格波动对电力设备厂商毛利率的冲击评估", "summary": "压力测试报告：护城河的成色几何 —— 铜与硅钢价格波动对电力设备厂商毛利率的冲击评估 报告日期： 2026-06-29 分析师： 材料行业分析师 (Steel, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, battery mate...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b49c2ae10901/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力设备超额周期下的上游材料供应压力：取向硅钢与电磁线铜的产能瓶颈及利润率压力测试报告", "summary": "电力设备超额周期下的上游材料供应压力：取向硅钢与电磁线铜的产能瓶颈及利润率压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c864c6d4dd15/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "ETN", "GEV", "002270.SZ", "688676.SH", "ABBNY", "600406.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-026aa1679b", "title": "云厂商自发电正在把 AI 交付风险转移到核电、燃气、电网与公用事业信用", "titleEn": "Cloud self-generation is shifting AI delivery risk into nuclear, gas, grid assets, and utility credit", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-026aa1679b/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "电网约束型 AI 电力 CapEx 对结构性电价与核心通胀中枢的宏观传导", "summary": "电网约束型 AI 电力 CapEx 对结构性电价与核心通胀中枢的宏观传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f4f99ba9b817/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI数据中心“电力荒”：电网接入瓶颈下的超大规模云厂商资本开支与自备电站转型", "summary": "AI数据中心“电力荒”：电网接入瓶颈下的超大规模云厂商资本开支与自备电站转型", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-757503d12889/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "VST", "CEG", "GEV", "SMR", "META", "ETN", "MSFT", "AMZN", "AEP", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-1aaa752ed4", "title": "AI 电力与电网瓶颈仍是基础设施主线", "titleEn": "AI power and grid bottlenecks remain the infrastructure core", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-1aaa752ed4/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 45, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "电网压力测试：配电与电力供应是否构成 AI 建设落地的约束性瓶颈？", "summary": "板块： [source-id-redacted] · 研究记录 · 工作日期： 2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师： 公用事业分析师（ utilities-analyst ）· 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） -...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b2a9db5929c5/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电网约束型 AI 电力 CapEx 对结构性电价与核心通胀中枢的宏观传导", "summary": "电网约束型 AI 电力 CapEx 对结构性电价与核心通胀中枢的宏观传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f4f99ba9b817/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "META", "600089.SH", "MSFT", "601179.SH", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-aa97a5c1b3", "title": "家装链的胜负手在存量房翻新、国补触达与地产后周期库存去化", "titleEn": "Home improvement depends on existing-home renovation, subsidy reach, and post-property inventory digestion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-aa97a5c1b3/", "laneId": "lane_1efa26c729b6", "lane": "家装/地产后周期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/home-improvement-and-post-property-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "竣工下行背景下的家装上游材料：库存去化进度与成本—需求双重挤压", "summary": "研究研究记录 · 材料行业分析师（ materials-analyst ）· 工作日 2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场：stress-test", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5a9c18ef9f59/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "存量房成交、2026 国补与家装翻新需求支撑力", "summary": "研究研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日 2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场：synthesize", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-93d092e50781/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002572.SZ", "603833.SH", "603816.SH", "600690.SH", "LOW", "000333.SZ", "002043.SZ", "603801.SH", "002508.SZ", "001322.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d1c60d5af6", "title": "纺织服装出口链的 Alpha 取决于棉价、库存周期、品牌折扣与合规转移", "titleEn": "Textile and apparel export alpha depends on cotton, inventory cycles, brand discounting, and compliance relocation", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d1c60d5af6/", "laneId": "lane_856b47b8b1d9", "lane": "纺织服装/出口库存周期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/textile-apparel-export-and-inventory-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 38, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "研究研究2026-06-29 中国纺织需求在 ICE 棉花突破 90 美分后的压力测试", "summary": "研究研究2026-06-29 中国纺织需求在 ICE 棉花突破 90 美分后的压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ffa3eb0b03f6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "研究研究2026-06-29 关税、贸易壁垒与中游利润之问", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡工作日） 分析师： 政策分析师（ policy-analyst ） 项目： KB 刷新追踪：棉花（KB 刷新追踪: 棉花 · auto-spawn 4） 立场： 压力测试——美方关税成本上升...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fa983e2d95f6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NKE", "002003.SZ", "603558.SH", "603889.SH", "300979.SZ", "300577.SZ", "2313.HK", "603055.SH", "LULU" ] }, { "id": "thesis-59f298ff36", "title": "在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-59f298ff36/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 84, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "负Gamma踩踏与流动性走廊失灵情景下，A股红利与成长组合的VaR及清算阈值评估报告", "summary": "负Gamma踩踏与流动性走廊失灵情景下，A股红利与成长组合的VaR及清算阈值评估报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1719e9006ba1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f5f184ba4e", "title": "在美联储偏鹰暂停、美债收益率攀升至4.66%的背景下，国内电子行业两融余额高悬至5722.82亿元是否面临负Gamma清算压力？如何重构…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在美联储偏鹰暂停、美债收益率攀升至4.66%的背景下，国内电子行业两融余额高悬至5722.82亿元是否面临负Gamma清算压力？如何重构…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5f184ba4e/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "负Gamma踩踏与流动性走廊失灵情景下，A股红利与成长组合的VaR及清算阈值评估报告", "summary": "负Gamma踩踏与流动性走廊失灵情景下，A股红利与成长组合的VaR及清算阈值评估报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1719e9006ba1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "688981.SH", "601088.SH", "601398.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9a926eda26", "title": "本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a926eda26/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "能源与公用事业高股息资产的防御性及利率敏感度评估：长江电力股息率耐久性压力测试", "summary": "能源与公用事业高股息资产的防御性及利率敏感度评估：长江电力股息率耐久性压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d09fefe67c64/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "600905.SH", "DUK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-307b7fe2cb", "title": "美联储7月两难：Warsh鹰派点阵图 vs 开裂的劳动力市场与消退的伊朗油价冲击", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储7月两难：Warsh鹰派点阵图 vs 开裂的劳动力市场与消退的伊朗油价冲击", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-307b7fe2cb/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "能源通缩压力下的美联储政策路径与通胀预期分析", "summary": "能源通缩压力下的美联储政策路径与通胀预期分析 研究院权威工作日期： 2026-06-29 (亚洲/新加坡) 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 (agy) 立场： 支持 (Support)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-25499b0b5db8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a3440bf2a4", "title": "中东停火信号下的油价风险应如何重定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中东停火信号下的油价风险应如何重定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a3440bf2a4/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "「沃什转向」：美联储是在为一场正在退潮的油价冲击打上一场战争吗？", "summary": "研究来源：已归档 / research note · 分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 任务： central bank watch 工作日期： 2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8625b1f6c7b8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a13f19ec2d", "title": "红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a13f19ec2d/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "局部中小银行信用缺口下A股红利复合体的重新排序", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡，研究院基准工作日） 分析师： 首席策略师（ chief-strategist ） ｜ 研究记录 立场： 综合（Synthesize） 主题： 局部中小银行信用缺口下，A股银行红利的...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ef892095e830/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601398.SH", "688981.SH", "510880.SH", "600941.SH", "601088.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-eefbf1a467", "title": "中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-eefbf1a467/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球宏观与外汇策略：美联储终端利率分化下的USD/CNY汇率定价与全球套息交易动态", "summary": "全球宏观与外汇策略：美联储终端利率分化下的USD/CNY汇率定价与全球套息交易动态", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7b787b12bf6c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e40b25962e", "title": "A股“大行+红利/稀缺成长”哑铃配置在低杠杆与高可视度Backlog支撑下并未拥挤，而弱区域中小银行因资产质量二阶传导滞后与重度稀释风险…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股“大行+红利/稀缺成长”哑铃配置在低杠杆与高可视度Backlog支撑下并未拥挤，而弱区域中小银行因资产质量二阶传导滞后与重度稀释风险…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e40b25962e/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "局部中小银行信用缺口下A股红利复合体的重新排序", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡，研究院基准工作日） 分析师： 首席策略师（ chief-strategist ） ｜ 研究记录 立场： 综合（Synthesize） 主题： 局部中小银行信用缺口下，A股银行红利的...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ef892095e830/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601398.SH", "601088.SH", "600941.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7930de9cdc", "title": "沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7930de9cdc/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球宏观与外汇策略：美联储终端利率分化下的USD/CNY汇率定价与全球套息交易动态", "summary": "全球宏观与外汇策略：美联储终端利率分化下的USD/CNY汇率定价与全球套息交易动态", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7b787b12bf6c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-fe66302bd9", "title": "美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fe66302bd9/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球宏观与外汇策略：美联储终端利率分化下的USD/CNY汇率定价与全球套息交易动态", "summary": "全球宏观与外汇策略：美联储终端利率分化下的USD/CNY汇率定价与全球套息交易动态", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7b787b12bf6c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-cf6925b02f", "title": "232/301双轨壁垒近端收紧回路、延长轨道时间溢价至2028–2029，但通过抬高美国电气化成本加速AI资本开支ROI清算——约束正从…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 232/301双轨壁垒近端收紧回路、延长轨道时间溢价至2028–2029，但通过抬高美国电气化成本加速AI资本开支ROI清算——约束正从…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-cf6925b02f/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI算力电网物理约束常态化下，A股电力/电网设备与低估值TMT的板块轮动与估值再平衡机制", "summary": "AI算力电网物理约束常态化下，A股电力/电网设备与低估值TMT的板块轮动与估值再平衡机制", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-92c1d0842628/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "GEV", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "ETN", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-97f10202a2", "title": "中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-97f10202a2/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球宏观与外汇策略：美联储终端利率分化下的USD/CNY汇率定价与全球套息交易动态", "summary": "全球宏观与外汇策略：美联储终端利率分化下的USD/CNY汇率定价与全球套息交易动态", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7b787b12bf6c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-91cfb3e0f8", "title": "外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-91cfb3e0f8/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "局部中小银行信用缺口下A股红利复合体的重新排序", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡，研究院基准工作日） 分析师： 首席策略师（ chief-strategist ） ｜ 研究记录 立场： 综合（Synthesize） 主题： 局部中小银行信用缺口下，A股银行红利的...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ef892095e830/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "KRE", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3156277f22", "title": "哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3156277f22/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球宏观与外汇策略：美联储终端利率分化下的USD/CNY汇率定价与全球套息交易动态", "summary": "全球宏观与外汇策略：美联储终端利率分化下的USD/CNY汇率定价与全球套息交易动态", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7b787b12bf6c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e12bcc0d59", "title": "PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e12bcc0d59/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "负Gamma踩踏与流动性走廊失灵情景下，A股红利与成长组合的VaR及清算阈值评估报告", "summary": "负Gamma踩踏与流动性走廊失灵情景下，A股红利与成长组合的VaR及清算阈值评估报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1719e9006ba1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "510300.SH", "512100.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ace402c8b6", "title": "科创板极端护盘对A股整体流动性的虹吸效应与跨板块资产配置调整 研究日期： 2026 05 22 作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Str…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创板极端护盘对A股整体流动性的虹吸效应与跨板块资产配置调整 研究日期： 2026 05 22 作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Str…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ace402c8b6/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试：250–500亿美元权益净流出对A股两融、北向资金与流动性的冲击", "summary": "压力测试：250–500亿美元权益净流出对A股两融、北向资金与流动性的冲击", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cbea806aa943/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "P", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-11523cabbd", "title": "熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-11523cabbd/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球宏观与外汇策略：美联储终端利率分化下的USD/CNY汇率定价与全球套息交易动态", "summary": "全球宏观与外汇策略：美联储终端利率分化下的USD/CNY汇率定价与全球套息交易动态", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7b787b12bf6c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d98ced0974", "title": "电力瓶颈会重排AI算力项目顺序，但不会让2025-2026年全球AI集群建设同步停摆。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力瓶颈会重排AI算力项目顺序，但不会让2025-2026年全球AI集群建设同步停摆。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d98ced0974/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI算力电网物理约束常态化下，A股电力/电网设备与低估值TMT的板块轮动与估值再平衡机制", "summary": "AI算力电网物理约束常态化下，A股电力/电网设备与低估值TMT的板块轮动与估值再平衡机制", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-92c1d0842628/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "601179.SH", "ETN", "600089.SH", "VST", "CEG" ] }, { "id": "thesis-979591277f", "title": "能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-979591277f/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球宏观与外汇策略：美联储终端利率分化下的USD/CNY汇率定价与全球套息交易动态", "summary": "全球宏观与外汇策略：美联储终端利率分化下的USD/CNY汇率定价与全球套息交易动态", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7b787b12bf6c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-56d9baf47d", "title": "2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-56d9baf47d/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "同步转鹰：2026 年伊朗战争石油冲击如何迫使美联储、欧央行与日本央行在供给冲击中收紧", "summary": "同步转鹰：2026 年伊朗战争石油冲击如何迫使美联储、欧央行与日本央行在供给冲击中收紧", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2559ecccf713/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9cd2a72630", "title": "在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9cd2a72630/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "Warsh 联储的鹰派转向：点阵图从\"降息\"翻转为\"加息\"，且锚定于一次油价冲击", "summary": "Warsh 联储的鹰派转向：点阵图从\"降息\"翻转为\"加息\"，且锚定于一次油价冲击", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-afa74c08e253/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "JPM", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f9ce8d294d", "title": "人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f9ce8d294d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球宏观与外汇策略：美联储终端利率分化下的USD/CNY汇率定价与全球套息交易动态", "summary": "全球宏观与外汇策略：美联储终端利率分化下的USD/CNY汇率定价与全球套息交易动态", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7b787b12bf6c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d8170c3a35", "title": "近海资本开支与设备利用率驱动油服盈利弹性", "titleEn": "Offshore capex and equipment utilization drive oilfield-service earnings leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d8170c3a35/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "能源冲击压力测试：食品加工“成本脱钩”脆弱性与千味央厨（001215.SZ）毛利率防线评估", "summary": "能源冲击压力测试：食品加工“成本脱钩”脆弱性与千味央厨（001215.SZ）毛利率防线评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ad222467a18a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CVX", "XOM", "0883.HK", "COP", "2883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0", "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层", "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI算力基础设施与GPU供应链：瓶颈已向下游迁移", "summary": "本报告权威工作日：2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师：ai-infrastructure-analyst（AI基础设施分析师） research discussion 研究记录 立场：支持（SUPPORT）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f833c3d8db2d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "TSM", "AVGO", "AAPL", "TSLA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0a0d09421e", "title": "AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0a0d09421e/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI数据中心“电力荒”：电网接入瓶颈下的超大规模云厂商资本开支与自备电站转型", "summary": "AI数据中心“电力荒”：电网接入瓶颈下的超大规模云厂商资本开支与自备电站转型", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-757503d12889/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4749f7193b", "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4749f7193b/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "能效与电力之墙：压力测试国产算力芯片代际差距下的电网承载力与能效边界", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-29（新加坡/东八区 - 研究院基准工作日） - 研究来源：已归档 - 研究记录位置： 第 8 张，共 10 张 核心立场：压力测试 (Stress-Test) -...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-419978d9471f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "601985.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a3cb9196a0", "title": "随着AI算力扩建撞上电力电网并网物理速度墙，变压器与硅钢（GOES）结构性缺口高达30%，投产延迟WACC损失巨大，形成约35倍的经济杠…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 随着AI算力扩建撞上电力电网并网物理速度墙，变压器与硅钢（GOES）结构性缺口高达30%，投产延迟WACC损失巨大，形成约35倍的经济杠…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a3cb9196a0/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI算力电网物理约束常态化下，A股电力/电网设备与低估值TMT的板块轮动与估值再平衡机制", "summary": "AI算力电网物理约束常态化下，A股电力/电网设备与低估值TMT的板块轮动与估值再平衡机制", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-92c1d0842628/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "601179.SH", "600089.SH", "688676.SH", "CEG" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a10279b001", "title": "面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a10279b001/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI算力基础设施与GPU供应链：瓶颈已向下游迁移", "summary": "本报告权威工作日：2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师：ai-infrastructure-analyst（AI基础设施分析师） research discussion 研究记录 立场：支持（SUPPORT）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f833c3d8db2d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b37a11e5a3", "title": "FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b37a11e5a3/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 2026-06-29 最终配置综合：电网瓶颈、AI芯片能效与久期资产", "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-06-29 最终配置综合：电网瓶颈、AI芯片能效与久期资产", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9d0dfffbaaf3/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b6f59efde4", "title": "包装油占比与原料顺价驱动利润率修复", "titleEn": "Packaged-oil mix and input-cost pass-through drive margin recovery", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b6f59efde4/", "laneId": "lane_13d7ced85300", "lane": "食品加工/成本传导", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-processing-and-input-cost-transmission/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "能源冲击压力测试：食品加工“成本脱钩”脆弱性与千味央厨（001215.SZ）毛利率防线评估", "summary": "能源冲击压力测试：食品加工“成本脱钩”脆弱性与千味央厨（001215.SZ）毛利率防线评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ad222467a18a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "001215.SZ", "600298.SH", "603027.SH", "300973.SZ", "603317.SH", "002852.SZ", "002847.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-100e81e234", "title": "AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-100e81e234/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 2026-06-29 最终配置综合：电网瓶颈、AI芯片能效与久期资产", "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-06-29 最终配置综合：电网瓶颈、AI芯片能效与久期资产", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9d0dfffbaaf3/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f3989d02c5", "title": "全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f3989d02c5/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "能效与电力之墙：压力测试国产算力芯片代际差距下的电网承载力与能效边界", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-29（新加坡/东八区 - 研究院基准工作日） - 研究来源：已归档 - 研究记录位置： 第 8 张，共 10 张 核心立场：压力测试 (Stress-Test) -...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-419978d9471f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "META", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bc1d8e9af8", "title": "Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bc1d8e9af8/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：这是一次范式切换，而非鹰派按兵", "summary": "研究记录 01 / 分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师）· 工作日期： 2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡时区） 主题： 新任主席 Kevin Warsh 主持的 2026 年 6 月 FOMC——一次鹰派范式切换及其跨资产/...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8bc5f4630e25/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8b23f98d54", "title": "四大云厂商2026年创纪录的7250亿美元CapEx具有强战略刚性，但变压器3-6年交期与电网并网时滞导致800-1100亿美元开支递延…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 四大云厂商2026年创纪录的7250亿美元CapEx具有强战略刚性，但变压器3-6年交期与电网并网时滞导致800-1100亿美元开支递延…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8b23f98d54/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电网约束型 AI 电力 CapEx 对结构性电价与核心通胀中枢的宏观传导", "summary": "电网约束型 AI 电力 CapEx 对结构性电价与核心通胀中枢的宏观传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f4f99ba9b817/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "601179.SH", "VST", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "CEG" ] }, { "id": "thesis-42ca700527", "title": "霍尔木兹海峡60天和平协定签署且制裁豁免延长，导致运力大增、布伦特油价跌5.23%至$73.05/桶，LME铝价从高位跌19.1%至$3…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 霍尔木兹海峡60天和平协定签署且制裁豁免延长，导致运力大增、布伦特油价跌5.23%至$73.05/桶，LME铝价从高位跌19.1%至$3…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-42ca700527/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-29 大类资产配置：增配久期、压低贝塔、保留油价尾部对冲", "summary": "2026-06-29 大类资产配置：增配久期、压低贝塔、保留油价尾部对冲", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f0f070e79261/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "0857.HK", "SLB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a6599a3f5", "title": "新一代信息技术国产替代要从信创叙事进入算力、软件与安全订单验证", "titleEn": "Domestic IT substitution must move from policy narrative to compute, software, and security order proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a6599a3f5/", "laneId": "lane_e4f90acbf804", "lane": "信创/国产 IT 栈", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/domestic-it-substitution-stack/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "新一代信息技术产业链筛选 — 2026-06-29", "summary": "截至研究所工作日 2026-06-29，我支持启动新一代信息技术产业链补覆盖：内部看板过去 30 日激活率只有 4/92，即 4.3% [来源不明]，但外部数据已经显示半导体、光器件、AI ASIC/IP、内存接口芯片...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-57a42c7fd3a3/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "300308.SZ", "NVDA", "000977.SZ", "688008.SH", "688012.SH", "688111.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bef6966fdd", "title": "工业机械的出口订单质量和设备更新周期决定制造业 CapEx 弹性", "titleEn": "Industrial machinery beta depends on export-order quality and equipment-upgrade capex", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bef6966fdd/", "laneId": "lane_6e2dcaab093e", "lane": "工业机械/设备更新出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/industrial-machinery-equipment-upgrade-and-exports/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 59, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-29 工业制造研究记录05：限制性实际利率下的中游机械订单与利润压力", "summary": "2026-06-29 工业制造研究记录05：限制性实际利率下的中游机械订单与利润压力", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bc31d8a7dfa1/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600031.SH", "600761.SH", "002747.SZ", "000425.SZ", "603338.SH", "603298.SH", "000157.SZ", "601100.SH", "300124.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-6f42e0fe6e", "title": "稀土、铜铝与关键材料正在成为 AI 与新能源共用的供给约束", "titleEn": "Rare earths, copper, aluminum, and key materials are becoming shared supply constraints for AI and energy transition", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6f42e0fe6e/", "laneId": "lane_8c4a3526fcca", "lane": "关键材料/稀土铜铝", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/critical-materials-rare-earths-copper-and-aluminum/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 58, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-29 全球宏观：中国需求对铜与锂盈利Beta的验证", "summary": "作者: 全球宏观分析师 ( global-macro ) 工作日期: 2026-06-29（Asia/Singapore） 研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] 研究记录 立场: 支持，但按品种分化", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5c4d79585939/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "FCX", "GEV", "000831.SZ", "SCCO", "ETN", "MP", "TECK", "600111.SH", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-cb2ab35c55", "title": "AI 基础设施扩张从规模驱动切换到 TCO、能效和利用率筛选", "titleEn": "AI infrastructure expansion is shifting from scale to TCO, power efficiency, and utilization screening", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-cb2ab35c55/", "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87", "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 58, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "PQC 硬件加速对大规模 GPU 集群能效比与网络拓扑扩展性的边际压力测试报告", "summary": "PQC 硬件加速对大规模 GPU 集群能效比与网络拓扑扩展性的边际压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7b60a2fc5e63/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "META", "MU", "MSFT", "AVGO", "VRT", "000660.KS", "DELL" ] }, { "id": "thesis-075017003b", "title": "AI 资本开支通过能源、设备和利率进入通胀定价", "titleEn": "AI capex enters inflation pricing through energy, equipment, and rates", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-075017003b/", "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08", "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 55, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电网约束型 AI 电力 CapEx 对结构性电价与核心通胀中枢的宏观传导", "summary": "电网约束型 AI 电力 CapEx 对结构性电价与核心通胀中枢的宏观传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f4f99ba9b817/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "XLE", "TLT", "XLU", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-42faeae623", "title": "CPO、光互联与铜连接决定 AI 集群内部租金迁移", "titleEn": "CPO, optical interconnect, and copper links define rent migration inside AI clusters", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-42faeae623/", "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956", "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 55, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "新一代信息技术产业链筛选 — 2026-06-29", "summary": "截至研究所工作日 2026-06-29，我支持启动新一代信息技术产业链补覆盖：内部看板过去 30 日激活率只有 4/92，即 4.3% [来源不明]，但外部数据已经显示半导体、光器件、AI ASIC/IP、内存接口芯片...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-57a42c7fd3a3/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "NVDA", "AVGO", "META", "COHR", "LITE", "300394.SZ", "MRVL", "TSM", "MSFT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-08dd090dc9", "title": "公用事业从防御红利切换到电网扩容、容量费与信用再定价", "titleEn": "Utilities are shifting from defensive dividends to grid expansion, capacity fees, and credit repricing", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08dd090dc9/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "截至 2026-06-29 的信用压力测试：电网公用事业能否在不降级的前提下以债务承接 AI 资本开支超级周...", "summary": "截至 2026-06-29 的信用压力测试：电网公用事业能否在不降级的前提下以债务承接 AI 资本开支超级周期？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a264000d08ac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "AEP", "600900.SH", "CEG", "DUK", "VST", "XLU", "META", "NEE", "SMR", "GEV" ] }, { "id": "thesis-485a630a87", "title": "自动驾驶与 Robotaxi 主题必须从演示热度进入单位经济和监管城市扩张验证", "titleEn": "Autonomous driving and robotaxi themes must move from demo excitement to unit economics and regulated city expansion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-485a630a87/", "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da", "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 51, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "资金回流成长风格下的 AI 算力基础设施需求验证", "summary": "研究来源：已归档 / research note · 分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst · 工作日期： 2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场： support", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-40473cf4b6cf/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GOOGL", "TSLA", "NVDA", "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "BIDU", "XPEV", "002594.SZ", "2015.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-51c6d833ae", "title": "食品加工的机会从食品通胀切换到原料波动、渠道库存与 B 端标准化", "titleEn": "Food processing opportunities are shifting from food inflation to input volatility, channel inventory, and B-side sta...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-51c6d833ae/", "laneId": "lane_13d7ced85300", "lane": "食品加工/成本传导", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-processing-and-input-cost-transmission/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 50, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "能源冲击压力测试：食品加工“成本脱钩”脆弱性与千味央厨（001215.SZ）毛利率防线评估", "summary": "能源冲击压力测试：食品加工“成本脱钩”脆弱性与千味央厨（001215.SZ）毛利率防线评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ad222467a18a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "001215.SZ", "600298.SH", "300973.SZ", "603345.SH", "603027.SH", "002991.SZ", "603317.SH", "002847.SZ", "ADM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d6b2c23ed6", "title": "航运与物流成本是油价、关税和供应链再通胀的二阶传导器", "titleEn": "Shipping and logistics costs are a second-order transmission channel for oil, tariffs, and supply-chain reflation", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d6b2c23ed6/", "laneId": "lane_79a55cd8530e", "lane": "航运物流/再通胀传导", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/shipping-logistics-and-reflation-transmission/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "霍尔木兹海峡瓶颈的持续性评估与中长期油价压力测试", "summary": "分析师角色: Energy Analyst (能源行业分析师) 工作日期: 2026-06-29 研究看板: Warsh 联储鹰派转向：6月点阵图从降息翻转为加息，锚定伊朗战争油价冲击 研究记录索引: 2/10 本报告立场: Stress...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8e871a026144/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601919.SH", "1919.HK", "ZIM", "MATX", "600026.SH", "600018.SH", "BOAT" ] } ], "lanes": [ { "id": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "title": "AI 电力/电网设备", "href": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "thesisCount": 12, "eventCount": 22, "convictionTotal": 843, "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST", "000400.SZ", "CEG", "META", "MSFT", "AMZN" ], "avgConviction": 70 }, { "id": "lane_93300d58763e", "title": "油气/地缘通胀", "href": 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115, "stockTickers": [ "001215.SZ", "600298.SH", "603027.SH", "300973.SZ", "603317.SH", "002852.SZ", "002847.SZ", "603345.SH", "002991.SZ", "ADM" ], "avgConviction": 58 }, { "id": "lane_6fbf93c613f9", "title": "债券供给/银行久期", "href": "/investor/lanes/bond-supply-and-bank-duration/", "thesisCount": 1, "eventCount": 2, "convictionTotal": 54, "stockTickers": [ "601398.SH", "601939.SH", "601288.SH", "3988.HK", "600900.SH", "TLT", "IEF", "000001.SZ" ], "avgConviction": 54 }, { "id": "lane_f8b4918fe5b3", "title": "海洋经济/船舶海工", "href": "/investor/lanes/marine-economy-shipbuilding-and-offshore-equipment/", "thesisCount": 1, "eventCount": 2, "convictionTotal": 53, "stockTickers": [ "601890.SH", "600150.SH", "600938.SH", "600583.SH", "603727.SH", "000039.SZ", "0883.HK", "300589.SZ", "601919.SH" ], "avgConviction": 53 }, { "id": "lane_e4b72516d71a", "title": "中国电力设备出海", "href": "/investor/lanes/china-power-equipment-exports/", "thesisCount": 1, "eventCount": 2, "convictionTotal": 49, "stockTickers": 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