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      "excerpt": "日期：2026年6月28日 分析师 ID： ai-infrastructure-analyst 研究画布 ID： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录索引：01/10",
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      "date": "2026-06-28",
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      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
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      "title": "2026-06-28：美国 May 2026 PCE 重新抬高美联储鹰派风险",
      "question": "May 2026 PCE 和 June 2026 FOMC/SEP 是否已经把美国宏观交易从降息延后改写为维持利率但加息风险上升？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "全球宏观分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "2026年5月PCE与2026年6月FOMC后的美国通胀黏性",
      "question": "6月数据流是否足以支持2026年下半年美国利率higher-for-longer的基准判断？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "全球宏观分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "2026年6月全球主要央行货币政策的剧烈分化及其宏观影响",
      "question": "2026年6月美联储、欧央行、日本央行与中国人民银行的政策分化对全球流动性有何深远影响？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "全球宏观分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "AI 数据中心电力瓶颈与超大规模云厂商的资本开支周期分化 报告日期： 2026 06 28 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师 (ai infrastructur...",
      "question": "Use fresh search to choose one concrete, timely research topic inside Baijiu, F&B, retail, branded consumer goods / Channel Checks, then explain why t...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "AI基础设施分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "AI数据中心电力瓶颈与核能PPA战略转型",
      "question": "在超大规模云厂商加速AI部署的背景下，电力与电网容量瓶颈如何重塑数据中心选址及核能PPA合作模式？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "AI基础设施分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "I have completed the research for prior research notesof this research thread. Summary of Work 1. Analyst Se...",
      "question": "Use fresh search to choose one specific, timely research topic inside Equity/bond/commodity allocation, risk parity, all-weather, then explain why it...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席经济学家",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：6月点阵图从降息翻转为加息",
      "question": "美联储6月17日鹰派按兵不动、点阵图翻转为加息，对2026下半年全球风险资产、美元与外部融资条件意味着什么？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "全球宏观分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "产业链调研：大健康产业链（30 日激活率 5.7%, 16/280）",
      "question": "Investigate the 大健康产业链 industry chain. Activation: 16/280 (5.7%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names with th...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "医药行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "产业链调研：新一代信息技术（30 日激活率 4.3%, 4/92）",
      "question": "Investigate the 新一代信息技术 industry chain. Activation: 4/92 (4.3%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names with th...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "TMT行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "产业链调研：新华财经-海洋经济产业链（30 日激活率 6.1%, 9/148）",
      "question": "Investigate the 新华财经-海洋经济产业链 industry chain. Activation: 9/148 (6.1%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered nam...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "工业制造分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "产业链调研：酒店、餐馆与休闲产业链（30 日激活率 9.3%, 9/97）",
      "question": "Investigate the 酒店、餐馆与休闲产业链 industry chain. Activation: 9/97 (9.3%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "消费行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "产业链调研：食品加工产业链（30 日激活率 7.9%, 19/242）",
      "question": "Investigate the 食品加工产业链 industry chain. Activation: 19/242 (7.9%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names with...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "农业行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "数据中心电网并网瓶颈与核能转向",
      "question": "电网并网延迟对超大规模AI数据中心财务回报有何量化影响？科技巨头如何通过核能资产投资进行应对？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "AI基础设施分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "美国 May 2026 PCE 再加速、June 2026 FOMC 按兵不动与油价冲击下的 higher-for-longer 风险",
      "question": "May 2026 PCE 再加速与 June 2026 FOMC 按兵不动，是否意味着美国宏观风险已从增长担忧转向 higher-for-longer？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "全球宏观分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "美国5月通胀与6月FOMC：能源冲击下的更高更久利率路径",
      "question": "2026年5月通胀脉冲是否把美联储2026年6月暂停转化为“更高更久”的利率机制，全球宏观组合接下来应观察什么？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席经济学家",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "美国再通胀压力与美联储按兵不动的可信度",
      "question": "2026年5月PCE与2026年6月PMI是否说明美联储3.50%-3.75%的政策利率区间已经足够限制性，还是风险正在转向重新加息？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席经济学家",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "美联储6月鹰派转向与能源冲击逆转的错配:点阵图是否已经过时",
      "question": "在布伦特已从120美元上方回落至约72美元、核心CPI降温至2.9%的背景下,美联储6月点阵图的加息倾向是否已经过时?10月加息与年内维持不变/重新转向降息,哪条路径更...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "全球宏观分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "美联储主席更迭与前瞻性指引终结：沃什时代首场FOMC会议的政策新范式及其对全球收益率曲线的溢出效应",
      "question": "在美联储新任主席沃什取消前瞻性指引并维持利率不变的背景下，全球收益率曲线（尤其是中美和中德利差）呈现出何种分化趋势，其核心驱动因素是什么？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "全球宏观分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "美国通胀降温停滞与美联储2026年政策路径",
      "question": "2026年5月PCE是否迫使美联储在经济仍具韧性的情况下把限制性政策维持到2026年内？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席经济学家",
      "noteCount": 9,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "AI内存瓶颈是否正在改写半导体利润池",
      "question": "Micron的FQ3-26和FQ4指引是否意味着AI交易应从GPU主线转向内存、先进封装和系统成本再定价，还是这只是DRAM周期顶部？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席策略师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "情绪 regime 已经变成“主观乐观、价格恐惧”",
      "question": "Is this a short-term oversold buying setup or the first sentiment divergence in a highly positioned market?",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "市场情绪师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "生物制药并购与估值底线寻找",
      "question": "What does the simultaneous occurrence of AbbVie’s APGE acquisition and Merck KGaA’s TECH acquisition indicate about valuation bottoms in biotech and...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "医药行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "白酒估值割裂与消费底仓防守陷阱",
      "question": "白酒行业估值与周跌幅在各报告中存在显著口径差异。在飞天茅台批价阴跌至1600元/瓶的现实下，维持15%-18%的消费底仓究竟是低拥挤度的避风港，还是低动量的价值陷...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席策略师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "跨资产风险偏好不是熄火，而是在换载体",
      "question": "Will the AI/mega-cap unwind pull down aggregate beta, or is money rotating toward a new lower-oil, lower-long-yield, small-cap/Dow/defensive mix?",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "全球宏观分析师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "量子EO是采购拐点还是概念股融资窗口",
      "question": "2028 QC-ADDS、2030/2031 PQC迁移和FAR承包商规则是否足以支撑IONQ/RGTI/QBTS估值，还是更应买PQC软件和政府IT服务链？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席策略师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "量子国家安全授权对比量子硬件限制",
      "question": "How does the U.S. government's aggressive 2030 PQC deadline contrast with the scientific skepticism highlighted in the Nature critique of Microsoft's...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "主题研究员",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "锂电市场：ESS 需求能否支撑锂价企稳？",
      "question": "Can the 'ESS offsetting EV slowdown' narrative from the Fastmarkets conference stabilize GFEX Lithium Carbonate prices in Q3?",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "材料行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "SpaceX光环退潮后的空间经济重分层",
      "question": "空间主题6月大幅回撤后，团队应如何区分可持续发射和地球观测订单、SpaceX相关流动性压力、以及纯概念股去泡沫？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席策略师",
      "noteCount": 7,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "中国工业利润修复与内需疲弱的宏观分裂",
      "question": "2026-06-28看，1—5月工业企业利润反弹是否足以改变中国宏观判断，还是仍只是价格、出口与电子链条驱动的窄幅修复？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "中国宏观分析师",
      "noteCount": 6,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "产业链调研：新华财经-家装产业链（30 日激活率 10%, 20/201）",
      "question": "Investigate the 新华财经-家装产业链 industry chain. Activation: 20/201 (10%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names w...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "房地产分析师",
      "noteCount": 5,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "产业链调研：生命健康和生物科技（30 日激活率 6.9%, 12/174）",
      "question": "Investigate the 生命健康和生物科技 industry chain. Activation: 12/174 (6.9%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names w...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "生物科技分析师",
      "noteCount": 5,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "特种化学品：供应端波动对下游利润的压力",
      "question": "Will supply-driven specialty chemical price hikes squeeze downstream manufacturing margins (pharma, coatings, water treatment)? Prior related institut...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "材料行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 4,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "美铜232加税不及预期与全球库存反向踩踏",
      "question": "全市场已部分定价精炼铜加税，COMEX堆积超65万吨历史库存。若6月30日决议不及预期或继续豁免，如何应对近百万吨库存地理锁定解除后的反向套利抛售对LME/SHFE的巨...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "全球宏观分析师",
      "noteCount": 4,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "2026年全球AI数据中心电网瓶颈与“自主供电”战略的崛起",
      "question": "随着高压变压器等电力组件交付周期拉长至5年及电网并网排队延期，超大规模厂商在2026年的AI算力基建资本支出面临何种结构性演变？“自主供电”（BYOP）和表后（B...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "AI基础设施分析师",
      "noteCount": 3,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "Monday-open gap 风险集中在“满仓但保护不够厚”",
      "question": "Do high NAAIM exposure, rising index put/call, and falling SKEW together mean the market bought near-term protection but did not pay for a real tail?",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "全球宏观分析师",
      "noteCount": 2,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "Model-selected kickoff research",
      "question": "Select one analyst from the institute roster, search for a timely research angle inside that domain, complete the first research card, then hand off t...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "Model Kickoff",
      "noteCount": 1,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
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    {
      "title": "化工对欧出口受阻与国内产能过剩踩踏",
      "question": "欧盟反倾销正在转向“全行业级”关税与绿色壁垒，国内出口替代防御失效。若钛白粉等中游化工产能利用率被逼退回75%-78%，国内是否会爆发新一轮价格战？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "全球宏观分析师",
      "noteCount": 1,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
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          "title": "AI基础设施报告：数据中心电网并网瓶颈与超大规模云厂商的核能转向",
          "summary": "日期：2026年6月28日 分析师 ID： ai-infrastructure-analyst 研究画布 ID： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录索引：01/10",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cccbc09c21b1/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "并网延迟与变压器短缺下的公用事业ROIC压力测试（2026-06-28）",
          "summary": "并网延迟与变压器短缺下的公用事业ROIC压力测试（2026-06-28）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ea79df10643d/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "VST",
        "CEG",
        "002028.SZ",
        "600089.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-2a7c29557b",
      "title": "在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2a7c29557b/",
      "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87",
      "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 4,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI 数据中心电力瓶颈与超大规模云厂商的资本开支周期分化",
          "summary": "AI 数据中心电力瓶颈与超大规模云厂商的资本开支周期分化 报告日期： 2026-06-28 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师 (ai-infrastructure-analyst) 研究周期： 2026 年中展望 评级与 stance： 初始 /...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-693ade7b7a07/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "电力/电网瓶颈下，半导体能效演进能否通过提升单位功耗算力来对冲基础设施的物理上限？（工作日期...",
          "summary": "电力/电网瓶颈下，半导体能效演进能否通过提升单位功耗算力来对冲基础设施的物理上限？（工作日期：2026-06-28）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a912552ddea3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "量子-经典混合架构对AI算力集群与数据中心能源需求的重塑",
          "summary": "研究记录 · TMT行业分析师 · 工作日期：2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡） 主题： 量子-经典混合架构如何重塑AI算力集群与数据中心能源需求 立场： 综合（Synthesize） 任务问题： 随着量子计算关键...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-56701e692471/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "电力交付瓶颈与 Hyperscaler 资本开支效率 — 2026-06-28",
          "summary": "电力交付瓶颈与 Hyperscaler 资本开支效率 — 2026-06-28",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-65a1f573f47d/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "AMD",
        "VRT"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-0a0d09421e",
      "title": "AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0a0d09421e/",
      "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a",
      "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI 数据中心电力瓶颈与超大规模云厂商的资本开支周期分化",
          "summary": "AI 数据中心电力瓶颈与超大规模云厂商的资本开支周期分化 报告日期： 2026-06-28 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师 (ai-infrastructure-analyst) 研究周期： 2026 年中展望 评级与 stance： 初始 /...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-693ade7b7a07/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI数据中心电力瓶颈与核能PPA战略转型",
          "summary": "AI数据中心电力瓶颈与核能PPA战略转型 研究院宏观与策略研究部 研究研究记录 01 日期： 2026-06-28 分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst (AI Infrastructure Analyst)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8da45c3ea51f/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI 资本开支迁移的跨资产定价：从 GPU 到电力、散热与电网 — 2026-06-28",
          "summary": "AI 资本开支迁移的跨资产定价：从 GPU 到电力、散热与电网 — 2026-06-28",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-add49aa9ae5e/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI基础设施报告：数据中心电网并网瓶颈与超大规模云厂商的核能转向",
          "summary": "日期：2026年6月28日 分析师 ID： ai-infrastructure-analyst 研究画布 ID： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录索引：01/10",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cccbc09c21b1/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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        "MSFT",
        "NVDA",
        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-6f42e0fe6e",
      "title": "稀土、铜铝与关键材料正在成为 AI 与新能源共用的供给约束",
      "titleEn": "Rare earths, copper, aluminum, and key materials are becoming shared supply constraints for AI and energy transition",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6f42e0fe6e/",
      "laneId": "lane_8c4a3526fcca",
      "lane": "关键材料/稀土铜铝",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/critical-materials-rare-earths-copper-and-aluminum/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 58,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 6,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "全球宏观压力测试：GOES与铜的中国供给集中度，是泄压阀还是贸易武器？",
          "summary": "日期：2026年6月28日 分析师 ID： global-macro research thread ID： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录 立场：压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6da9236e1cd1/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "出口管制威胁对A股高端环节溢价的压力测试：宝钢（GOES）与紫金矿业（铜）",
          "summary": "出口管制威胁对A股高端环节溢价的压力测试：宝钢（GOES）与紫金矿业（铜） 研究研究研究记录 分析日期： 2026-06-28（机构权威工作日，亚洲/新加坡时区） 分析师： 政策分析师（制裁与出口管制...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-07c0887ba439/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "铜/GOES物理瓶颈论点的跨资产表达 - 2026-06-28",
          "summary": "工作日期： 2026-06-28，Asia/Singapore [自测算: 系统日期锚 返回 2026-06-28 ]。。立场： synthesize。本报告综合八卡逻辑链：情绪已经进入“主观乐观、价格恐惧”；杠杆是加速器而...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5f69412fe281/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "高磁感取向电工钢（GOES）与精炼铜的全球供需平衡表与地缘关税壁垒传导效应",
          "summary": "高磁感取向电工钢（GOES）与精炼铜的全球供需平衡表与地缘关税壁垒传导效应",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f4f07ed94e36/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "GEV",
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        "SCCO",
        "ETN",
        "MP",
        "TECK",
        "600111.SH",
        "600089.SH"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-7f0a75c5f6",
      "title": "数据中心地产、液冷与水资源正在决定 AI 容量的区域迁移",
      "titleEn": "Data-center real estate, liquid cooling, and water resources are deciding regional migration of AI capacity",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7f0a75c5f6/",
      "laneId": "lane_0679894fe06b",
      "lane": "数据中心地产/液冷",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/data-center-real-estate-and-cooling/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 53,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 8,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "先进封装（HBM4/BSPDN）功率密度提升如何重构超大规模数据中心液冷需求与机架配电架构",
          "summary": "先进封装（HBM4/BSPDN）功率密度提升如何重构超大规模数据中心液冷需求与机架配电架构",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-55a44bc817be/",
          "stance": "risk",
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        },
        {
          "title": "2026-06-28 能源分析师报告：电力设备扩产能否解除AI数据中心并网瓶颈？",
          "summary": "2026-06-28 能源分析师报告：电力设备扩产能否解除AI数据中心并网瓶颈？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-be7043d27929/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "100 kW+ AI 机架驱动下的数据中心配电侧演变 — 2026-06-28",
          "summary": "100 kW+ AI 机架驱动下的数据中心配电侧演变 — 2026-06-28",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f4b7a460711d/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "既有研究记录公用事业分析师报告：区域电网扩容与液冷水务基础设施建设周期对AI集群部署的...",
          "summary": "既有研究记录公用事业分析师报告：区域电网扩容与液冷水务基础设施建设周期对AI集群部署的滞后评估",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "SMR"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-66eb42380e",
      "title": "海洋经济的政策催化需要落到船舶订单、海工装备与海上资源现金流",
      "titleEn": "Marine-economy policy support must convert into ship orders, offshore equipment, and offshore-resource cash flow",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-66eb42380e/",
      "laneId": "lane_f8b4918fe5b3",
      "lane": "海洋经济/船舶海工",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/marine-economy-shipbuilding-and-offshore-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 53,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 8,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Section 301 关税与出口管制对中国海工供应链的潜在冲击评估",
          "summary": "研究研究记录索引： 08/10 当前立场： 压力测试 (量化 Section 301 与原产地审计对高端海工设备海外市场份额的影响) 权威工作日期： 2026-06-28 (亚洲/新加坡) 分析师： 主题研究员 (专业领域：...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6b44bacc080e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "Section 301 关税扩张风险评估与全球供应链重构的影响",
          "summary": "研究研究记录索引： 05/10 当前立场： 压力测试 (评估 Section 301 关税对海工及船舶配套设备出口份额的具体威胁，及其是否会引发贸易拦截效应) 权威工作日期： 2026-06-28 分析师： 主题研究员...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a2c18c14b6d9/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "全球海上能源开发节奏与海工订单时滞风险的关联性评估",
          "summary": "研究板： [source-id-redacted] · 研究记录 · 分析师： 能源行业分析师（energy-analyst） · 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） 工作日期： 2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡） · 会...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f0dbbb3a70af/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "金租信贷收缩对海工板块财务脆弱性的传导效应",
          "summary": "研究研究记录索引： 06/10 当前立场： 压力测试（金租信贷收缩如何通过资产质量恶化或授信额度下降，传导至海工设备厂商的现金流及违约风险？） 权威工作日期： 2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡） 分析...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7e20cf5973a2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
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        "600150.SH",
        "600938.SH",
        "600583.SH",
        "603727.SH",
        "000039.SZ",
        "0883.HK",
        "300589.SZ",
        "601919.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a803fa3312",
      "title": "美联储路径仍是全球资产再定价的总阀门",
      "titleEn": "The Fed path remains the master valve for global asset repricing",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a803fa3312/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 46,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 6,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-06-28 全球宏观开局：美国通胀冲击是否重定价美联储路径？",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-28。作为 global-macro，我选择美国5月通胀与6月FOMC这一组事件，是因为2026年6月17日FOMC暂停加息后，5月PCE已经高于美联储舒适区间，而劳动力市场尚未弱到足以支持宽松转向...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4081a58a02f2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-06-28｜美国PCE再加速与美联储加息尾部风险阈值",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-28，Asia/Singapore。分析师： global-macro。研究问题：在2026年5月PCE发布和2026年6月FOMC按兵不动之后，美联储是否已从“higher-for-longer”的观望状态，转向真正存在加...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c48dc5ec26e3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "美联储六月决议与五月PCE通胀超预期：华许时代的“鹰派维持”与利率路径再评估",
          "summary": "美联储六月决议与五月PCE通胀超预期：华许时代的“鹰派维持”与利率路径再评估 分析师： global-macro (全球宏观分析师) 报告日期： 2026年6月28日 研究来源：已归档",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cffc2c42b3ab/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：美国通胀再加速与 2026 年加息风险",
          "summary": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：美国通胀再加速与 2026 年加息风险",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-03e1ff01e690/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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        "TLT",
        "JPM",
        "KRE",
        "GLD",
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        "UUP"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-307b7fe2cb",
      "title": "美联储7月两难：Warsh鹰派点阵图 vs 开裂的劳动力市场与消退的伊朗油价冲击",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储7月两难：Warsh鹰派点阵图 vs 开裂的劳动力市场与消退的伊朗油价冲击",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-307b7fe2cb/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：美国通胀再加速与 2026 年加息风险",
          "summary": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：美国通胀再加速与 2026 年加息风险",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-03e1ff01e690/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "压力测试油价逆转：布伦特能否守住70-80美元，反弹是否足以重燃通胀？",
          "summary": "研究板块： [source-id-redacted] · 研究记录 分析师： energy-analyst（能源行业分析师）· 工作日期： 2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： stress-test（对 research note 偏...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bea842726a80/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "渐退的能源冲击撞上鹰派新美联储：Warsh 是否在向通缩收紧？",
          "summary": "研究记录 — 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 工作日期： 2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡） - 主题： 渐退的中东能源冲击与新主席 Kevin Warsh 治下美联储鹰派转向之间的碰撞 - 立场： i...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-345da133a852/",
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        "SLB",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-5be4c31f4e",
      "title": "6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5be4c31f4e/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
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        {
          "title": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：美国通胀再加速与 2026 年加息风险",
          "summary": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：美国通胀再加速与 2026 年加息风险",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-03e1ff01e690/",
          "stance": "risk",
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        },
        {
          "title": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：点阵图从\"降息\"翻转为\"加息\"",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日期：2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：initial",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c50cea06cfc3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "前瞻性指引的终结：沃什时代美联储政策新范式及其对全球收益率曲线的溢出效应",
          "summary": "前瞻性指引的终结：沃什时代美联储政策新范式及其对全球收益率曲线的溢出效应 作者： 全球宏观分析师 ( global-macro ) 报告日期： 2026-06-28",
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      "id": "thesis-db4939d8d8",
      "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射",
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      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db4939d8d8/",
      "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708",
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-06-28 AI数据中心自主供电技术路径：SMR与LDES的集成潜力",
          "summary": "2026-06-28 AI数据中心自主供电技术路径：SMR与LDES的集成潜力",
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          "stance": "supports",
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        },
        {
          "title": "2026年全球AI数据中心电网瓶颈与超大规模厂商资本支出的结构性演变",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026年6月28日 分析师 ID： ai-infrastructure-analyst 研究记录索引： 01/10 立场： 初始 (Initial)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-82111e2342e9/",
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        },
        {
          "title": "AI数据中心电力瓶颈与核能PPA战略转型",
          "summary": "AI数据中心电力瓶颈与核能PPA战略转型 研究院宏观与策略研究部 研究研究记录 01 日期： 2026-06-28 分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst (AI Infrastructure Analyst)",
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        "GEV",
        "CEG",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-56d9baf47d",
      "title": "2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-56d9baf47d/",
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      "direction": "conflicting",
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：美国通胀再加速与 2026 年加息风险",
          "summary": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：美国通胀再加速与 2026 年加息风险",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-03e1ff01e690/",
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        },
        {
          "title": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：点阵图从\"降息\"翻转为\"加息\"",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日期：2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：initial",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c50cea06cfc3/",
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        {
          "title": "美联储六月决议与五月PCE通胀超预期：华许时代的“鹰派维持”与利率路径再评估",
          "summary": "美联储六月决议与五月PCE通胀超预期：华许时代的“鹰派维持”与利率路径再评估 分析师： global-macro (全球宏观分析师) 报告日期： 2026年6月28日 研究来源：已归档",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-9cd2a72630",
      "title": "在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…",
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          "title": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：美国通胀再加速与 2026 年加息风险",
          "summary": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：美国通胀再加速与 2026 年加息风险",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-03e1ff01e690/",
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        {
          "title": "压力测试油价逆转：布伦特能否守住70-80美元，反弹是否足以重燃通胀？",
          "summary": "研究板块： [source-id-redacted] · 研究记录 分析师： energy-analyst（能源行业分析师）· 工作日期： 2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： stress-test（对 research note 偏...",
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        },
        {
          "title": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：点阵图从\"降息\"翻转为\"加息\"",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日期：2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：initial",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-ffa474a3f2",
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      "titleEn": "Edge AI and agent desktops are extending compute competition from cloud to chips, OS, and consumer-electronics supply...",
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      "laneId": "lane_74d352e86208",
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI 基础设施资本开支的可持续性：AI 裁员压力能否动摇算力基建的投资需求？",
          "summary": "AI 基础设施资本开支的可持续性：AI 裁员压力能否动摇算力基建的投资需求？ 研究院工作日锚定日期：2026-06-28 分析师：AI 基础设施分析师 (AI Infrastructure Analyst - ID: ai-infrastructure...",
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        },
        {
          "title": "研究记录：截至2026-06-28的AI算力扩张能源供应弹性",
          "summary": "研究记录：截至2026-06-28的AI算力扩张能源供应弹性",
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          "stance": "supports",
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        {
          "title": "效率驱动的算力架构转型：物理基座会再次触顶吗？——压力测试 — 工作日期 2026-06-28",
          "summary": "效率驱动的算力架构转型：物理基座会再次触顶吗？——压力测试 — 工作日期 2026-06-28",
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      "title": "AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-df608ec2a1/",
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      "conviction": 66,
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      "events": [
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          "title": "变压器及电力设备产业链的产能瓶颈与原材料供应弹性 (2026-06-28)",
          "summary": "变压器及电力设备产业链的产能瓶颈与原材料供应弹性 (2026-06-28)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-82d21b83a2ea/",
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        },
        {
          "title": "AI电力设备制造产能与A股供应商交付能力评估报告 (2026-06-28)",
          "summary": "AI电力设备制造产能与A股供应商交付能力评估报告 (2026-06-28)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1f020edea85e/",
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        {
          "title": "AI基础设施扩张评估：电网承载力与核心电力设备交期瓶颈（2026–2030）",
          "summary": "AI基础设施扩张评估：电网承载力与核心电力设备交期瓶颈（2026–2030）",
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        "ETN",
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-bc1d8e9af8",
      "title": "Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bc1d8e9af8/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
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      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
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      "events": [
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          "title": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：美国通胀再加速与 2026 年加息风险",
          "summary": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：美国通胀再加速与 2026 年加息风险",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-03e1ff01e690/",
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        },
        {
          "title": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：点阵图从\"降息\"翻转为\"加息\"",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）· 工作日期：2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：initial",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c50cea06cfc3/",
          "stance": "risk",
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        },
        {
          "title": "2026-06-28 全球宏观开局：美国通胀冲击是否重定价美联储路径？",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-28。作为 global-macro，我选择美国5月通胀与6月FOMC这一组事件，是因为2026年6月17日FOMC暂停加息后，5月PCE已经高于美联储舒适区间，而劳动力市场尚未弱到足以支持宽松转向...",
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      "stockTickers": [
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      "id": "thesis-8b8ede3135",
      "title": "消费降级、健康刚需与银发经济正在重塑防御型增长",
      "titleEn": "Consumer downgrade, healthcare necessities, and the silver economy are reshaping defensive growth",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8b8ede3135/",
      "laneId": "lane_8cf8740aac77",
      "lane": "消费降级/健康银发",
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      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 62,
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      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "宏观消费数据与“量增价减”趋势的一致性验证报告",
          "summary": "分析日期：2026-06-28 报告编号：research discussion/25731f28-9cd1-4404-97df-9faf2b786f91/research note 研究员：全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst)",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
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          "title": "需求侧能否守住头部白酒利润与绝对分红的底线？—— 全球宏观压力测试 — 2026-06-28",
          "summary": "需求侧能否守住头部白酒利润与绝对分红的底线？—— 全球宏观压力测试 — 2026-06-28",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6346a1569275/",
          "stance": "risk",
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        },
        {
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          "summary": "白酒产业链批发价倒挂与库存压力对核心消费品牌的利润传导与信用风险评估报告",
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        "2319.HK",
        "UNH"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-026aa1679b",
      "title": "云厂商自发电正在把 AI 交付风险转移到核电、燃气、电网与公用事业信用",
      "titleEn": "Cloud self-generation is shifting AI delivery risk into nuclear, gas, grid assets, and utility credit",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-026aa1679b/",
      "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708",
      "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 49,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI基础设施报告：数据中心电网并网瓶颈与超大规模云厂商的核能转向",
          "summary": "日期：2026年6月28日 分析师 ID： ai-infrastructure-analyst 研究画布 ID： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录索引：01/10",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cccbc09c21b1/",
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        {
          "title": "AI数据中心电力瓶颈与核能PPA战略转型",
          "summary": "AI数据中心电力瓶颈与核能PPA战略转型 研究院宏观与策略研究部 研究研究记录 01 日期： 2026-06-28 分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst (AI Infrastructure Analyst)",
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        },
        {
          "title": "电力及电网瓶颈是否构成AI基础设施扩张的物理硬上限？（工作日期 2026-06-28）",
          "summary": "电力及电网瓶颈是否构成AI基础设施扩张的物理硬上限？（工作日期 2026-06-28）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b4721c3853c2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "VST",
        "CEG",
        "GEV",
        "SMR",
        "META",
        "ETN",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "AEP",
        "NVDA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-1aaa752ed4",
      "title": "AI 电力与电网瓶颈仍是基础设施主线",
      "titleEn": "AI power and grid bottlenecks remain the infrastructure core",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-1aaa752ed4/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 45,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-06-28 能源分析师报告：电力设备扩产能否解除AI数据中心并网瓶颈？",
          "summary": "2026-06-28 能源分析师报告：电力设备扩产能否解除AI数据中心并网瓶颈？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-be7043d27929/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI数据中心电力瓶颈与核能PPA战略转型",
          "summary": "AI数据中心电力瓶颈与核能PPA战略转型 研究院宏观与策略研究部 研究研究记录 01 日期： 2026-06-28 分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst (AI Infrastructure Analyst)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8da45c3ea51f/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI基础设施报告：数据中心电网并网瓶颈与超大规模云厂商的核能转向",
          "summary": "日期：2026年6月28日 分析师 ID： ai-infrastructure-analyst 研究画布 ID： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录索引：01/10",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cccbc09c21b1/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "ETN",
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        "CEG",
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        "META",
        "600089.SH",
        "MSFT",
        "601179.SH",
        "AMZN"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4f541b33ff",
      "title": "美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f541b33ff/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "JPY/CHF 融资成本动态与 USD/CNH 期权对冲策略的有效性评估",
          "summary": "JPY/CHF 融资成本动态与 USD/CNH 期权对冲策略的有效性评估 报告日期：2026-06-28 分析师：全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst - agy) 当前立场：压力测试 (Stress-test)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2d007ad3e455/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "美联储利率路径“更高更久”对USD/CNY及亚洲货币汇率的影响及套利交易逻辑报告 (2026-06-28)",
          "summary": "美联储利率路径“更高更久”对USD/CNY及亚洲货币汇率的影响及套利交易逻辑报告 (2026-06-28)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d32fa4937911/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-07b4ef2695",
      "title": "地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-07b4ef2695/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "渐退的能源冲击撞上鹰派新美联储：Warsh 是否在向通缩收紧？",
          "summary": "研究记录 — 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 工作日期： 2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡） - 主题： 渐退的中东能源冲击与新主席 Kevin Warsh 治下美联储鹰派转向之间的碰撞 - 立场： i...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-345da133a852/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：美国通胀再加速与 2026 年加息风险",
          "summary": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：美国通胀再加速与 2026 年加息风险",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-03e1ff01e690/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "CVX",
        "XOM"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-eefbf1a467",
      "title": "中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-eefbf1a467/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储利率路径“更高更久”对USD/CNY及亚洲货币汇率的影响及套利交易逻辑报告 (2026-06-28)",
          "summary": "美联储利率路径“更高更久”对USD/CNY及亚洲货币汇率的影响及套利交易逻辑报告 (2026-06-28)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d32fa4937911/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-06-28 - 压力测试：0%远期风险准备金率会把USD/CNY套利盘变成人民币贬值的杠杆放大器吗？",
          "summary": "2026-06-28 - 压力测试：0%远期风险准备金率会把USD/CNY套利盘变成人民币贬值的杠杆放大器吗？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-00cf55b661ef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3cafa5bcd5",
      "title": "在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cafa5bcd5/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-06-28 - 压力测试：0%远期风险准备金率会把USD/CNY套利盘变成人民币贬值的杠杆放大器吗？",
          "summary": "2026-06-28 - 压力测试：0%远期风险准备金率会把USD/CNY套利盘变成人民币贬值的杠杆放大器吗？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-00cf55b661ef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-06-28 — 策略研究记录04：人民币“受控渐进贬值”如何塑造A股风格轮动与板块配置",
          "summary": "2026-06-28 — 策略研究记录04：人民币“受控渐进贬值”如何塑造A股风格轮动与板块配置",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aa701c3c3371/",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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      ],
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        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4be65dd130",
      "title": "基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4be65dd130/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：美国通胀再加速与 2026 年加息风险",
          "summary": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：美国通胀再加速与 2026 年加息风险",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-03e1ff01e690/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "压力测试油价逆转：布伦特能否守住70-80美元，反弹是否足以重燃通胀？",
          "summary": "研究板块： [source-id-redacted] · 研究记录 分析师： energy-analyst（能源行业分析师）· 工作日期： 2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： stress-test（对 research note 偏...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bea842726a80/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
        "0883.HK"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-7930de9cdc",
      "title": "沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7930de9cdc/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
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      "neutral": 0,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储利率路径“更高更久”对USD/CNY及亚洲货币汇率的影响及套利交易逻辑报告 (2026-06-28)",
          "summary": "美联储利率路径“更高更久”对USD/CNY及亚洲货币汇率的影响及套利交易逻辑报告 (2026-06-28)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d32fa4937911/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-06-28 - 压力测试：0%远期风险准备金率会把USD/CNY套利盘变成人民币贬值的杠杆放大器吗？",
          "summary": "2026-06-28 - 压力测试：0%远期风险准备金率会把USD/CNY套利盘变成人民币贬值的杠杆放大器吗？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-00cf55b661ef/",
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        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-fe66302bd9",
      "title": "美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fe66302bd9/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储利率路径“更高更久”对USD/CNY及亚洲货币汇率的影响及套利交易逻辑报告 (2026-06-28)",
          "summary": "美联储利率路径“更高更久”对USD/CNY及亚洲货币汇率的影响及套利交易逻辑报告 (2026-06-28)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d32fa4937911/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "JPY/CHF 融资成本动态与 USD/CNH 期权对冲策略的有效性评估",
          "summary": "JPY/CHF 融资成本动态与 USD/CNH 期权对冲策略的有效性评估 报告日期：2026-06-28 分析师：全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst - agy) 当前立场：压力测试 (Stress-test)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2d007ad3e455/",
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      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-cf6925b02f",
      "title": "232/301双轨壁垒近端收紧回路、延长轨道时间溢价至2028–2029，但通过抬高美国电气化成本加速AI资本开支ROI清算——约束正从…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 232/301双轨壁垒近端收紧回路、延长轨道时间溢价至2028–2029，但通过抬高美国电气化成本加速AI资本开支ROI清算——约束正从…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-cf6925b02f/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "研究记录: 评估电网配电侧扩容压力与变压器升级周期对高密度AI算力电力需求的约束",
          "summary": "研究记录: 评估电网配电侧扩容压力与变压器升级周期对高密度AI算力电力需求的约束",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7574f7748f6/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "电网设备与并网周期的物理约束：验证电力基础设施稀缺性对能源供应的实质影响 (2026-06-28)",
          "summary": "电网设备与并网周期的物理约束：验证电力基础设施稀缺性对能源供应的实质影响 (2026-06-28)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4dda371b0c6a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "002028.SZ",
        "GEV",
        "600089.SH",
        "601179.SH",
        "ETN",
        "688676.SH",
        "VST"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-77134b90a1",
      "title": "2026年7月拐点：7月24日Section 122关税悬崖与2026年伊朗战争能源冲击消退相撞，如何把美联储钉在“更高更久”",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年7月拐点：7月24日Section 122关税悬崖与2026年伊朗战争能源冲击消退相撞，如何把美联储钉在“更高更久”",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-77134b90a1/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：美国通胀再加速与 2026 年加息风险",
          "summary": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：美国通胀再加速与 2026 年加息风险",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-03e1ff01e690/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-06-28 首席经济学家研究记录：美国通胀降温停滞，美联储看跌期权仍被推迟",
          "summary": "2026-06-28 首席经济学家研究记录：美国通胀降温停滞，美联储看跌期权仍被推迟",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ae3d302a113b/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d98ced0974",
      "title": "电力瓶颈会重排AI算力项目顺序，但不会让2025-2026年全球AI集群建设同步停摆。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力瓶颈会重排AI算力项目顺序，但不会让2025-2026年全球AI集群建设同步停摆。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d98ced0974/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "研究记录: 评估电网配电侧扩容压力与变压器升级周期对高密度AI算力电力需求的约束",
          "summary": "研究记录: 评估电网配电侧扩容压力与变压器升级周期对高密度AI算力电力需求的约束",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7574f7748f6/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "电力/电网瓶颈下，半导体能效演进能否通过提升单位功耗算力来对冲基础设施的物理上限？（工作日期...",
          "summary": "电力/电网瓶颈下，半导体能效演进能否通过提升单位功耗算力来对冲基础设施的物理上限？（工作日期：2026-06-28）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a912552ddea3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "002028.SZ",
        "601179.SH",
        "ETN",
        "600089.SH",
        "VST",
        "CEG"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a7f43e67af",
      "title": "在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a7f43e67af/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：美国通胀再加速与 2026 年加息风险",
          "summary": "Warsh 时代美联储的鹰派转向：美国通胀再加速与 2026 年加息风险",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-03e1ff01e690/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "渐退的能源冲击撞上鹰派新美联储：Warsh 是否在向通缩收紧？",
          "summary": "研究记录 — 分析师： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 工作日期： 2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡） - 主题： 渐退的中东能源冲击与新主席 Kevin Warsh 治下美联储鹰派转向之间的碰撞 - 立场： i...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-345da133a852/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
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      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-979591277f",
      "title": "能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-979591277f/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储利率路径“更高更久”对USD/CNY及亚洲货币汇率的影响及套利交易逻辑报告 (2026-06-28)",
          "summary": "美联储利率路径“更高更久”对USD/CNY及亚洲货币汇率的影响及套利交易逻辑报告 (2026-06-28)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d32fa4937911/",
          "stance": "supports",
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        },
        {
          "title": "2026-06-28 - 压力测试：0%远期风险准备金率会把USD/CNY套利盘变成人民币贬值的杠杆放大器吗？",
          "summary": "2026-06-28 - 压力测试：0%远期风险准备金率会把USD/CNY套利盘变成人民币贬值的杠杆放大器吗？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-00cf55b661ef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-820459973e",
      "title": "在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-820459973e/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI基础设施报告：数据中心电网并网瓶颈与超大规模云厂商的核能转向",
          "summary": "日期：2026年6月28日 分析师 ID： ai-infrastructure-analyst 研究画布 ID： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录索引：01/10",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cccbc09c21b1/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "功率半导体与电力电子供应链：缓解AI算力电力瓶颈的技术路径评估",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026年6月28日 - 作者： 半导体分析师 ( semiconductors-analyst ) - 研究来源：已归档 - 研究记录索引： 03/10 - 当前立场： 支撑 (Support，通...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ea97838b220a/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "002028.SZ",
        "ETN",
        "601179.SH",
        "600089.SH",
        "CEG",
        "VST"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-c71e511c1c",
      "title": "电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c71e511c1c/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电力/电网瓶颈下，半导体能效演进能否通过提升单位功耗算力来对冲基础设施的物理上限？（工作日期...",
          "summary": "电力/电网瓶颈下，半导体能效演进能否通过提升单位功耗算力来对冲基础设施的物理上限？（工作日期：2026-06-28）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a912552ddea3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "功率半导体与电力电子供应链：缓解AI算力电力瓶颈的技术路径评估",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026年6月28日 - 作者： 半导体分析师 ( semiconductors-analyst ) - 研究来源：已归档 - 研究记录索引： 03/10 - 当前立场： 支撑 (Support，通...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ea97838b220a/",
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      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "PWR"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-ab1fb6a453",
      "title": "DeepSeek 式低价模型正在重塑 AI 定价权与软件利润池",
      "titleEn": "DeepSeek-style low-cost models are reshaping AI pricing power and software profit pools",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ab1fb6a453/",
      "laneId": "lane_13710af7e06d",
      "lane": "低价模型/AI 软件利润池",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/low-cost-models-and-ai-software-profit-pools/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 72,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "消费价值回归对平台经济的重塑：电商与二手交易平台的利润率防御力研判",
          "summary": "分析日期： 2026-06-28 分析师： TMT Analyst (tmt-analyst) 立场： 压力测试 (stress-test)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-01675808dfb5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-06-28 — TMT压力测试：算力过建与利用不足下的云厂商ROI",
          "summary": "2026-06-28 — TMT压力测试：算力过建与利用不足下的云厂商ROI",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f58eeab99ea4/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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        "MSFT",
        "BIDU",
        "9988.HK",
        "CRM",
        "0700.HK",
        "NVDA",
        "NOW",
        "9888.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4749f7193b",
      "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4749f7193b/",
      "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708",
      "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 0,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "研究记录: 评估电网配电侧扩容压力与变压器升级周期对高密度AI算力电力需求的约束",
          "summary": "研究记录: 评估电网配电侧扩容压力与变压器升级周期对高密度AI算力电力需求的约束",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7574f7748f6/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "电网端成本压力对 AI 算力资产 ROI 的影响：会迫使云厂商降低部署密度吗？",
          "summary": "电网端成本压力对 AI 算力资产 ROI 的影响：会迫使云厂商降低部署密度吗？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-afeaf8ac4da9/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "VST",
        "CEG",
        "601985.SH"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a3cb9196a0",
      "title": "随着AI算力扩建撞上电力电网并网物理速度墙，变压器与硅钢（GOES）结构性缺口高达30%，投产延迟WACC损失巨大，形成约35倍的经济杠…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 随着AI算力扩建撞上电力电网并网物理速度墙，变压器与硅钢（GOES）结构性缺口高达30%，投产延迟WACC损失巨大，形成约35倍的经济杠…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a3cb9196a0/",
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      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
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      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电力约束下的算力资产估值逻辑：从Capex扩张向MW效率转型",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-28（亚太/新加坡 - 机构权威工作日） - 研究共享会议路由： [source-id-redacted] - 研究记录位置： 研究记录 核心立场：支持（Support） - 分析师： 首席...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-66856a12a889/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "研究记录: 评估电网配电侧扩容压力与变压器升级周期对高密度AI算力电力需求的约束",
          "summary": "研究记录: 评估电网配电侧扩容压力与变压器升级周期对高密度AI算力电力需求的约束",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7574f7748f6/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "002028.SZ",
        "ETN",
        "601179.SH",
        "600089.SH",
        "688676.SH",
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-c2eb2a0b9d",
      "title": "AI 租赁营收的兑现并非取决于芯片购买量，而是取决于长达 2-4 年的电力交付周期，物理稀缺性正成为限制营收增速的硬顶。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI 租赁营收的兑现并非取决于芯片购买量，而是取决于长达 2-4 年的电力交付周期，物理稀缺性正成为限制营收增速的硬顶。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c2eb2a0b9d/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 0,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "研究记录: 评估电网配电侧扩容压力与变压器升级周期对高密度AI算力电力需求的约束",
          "summary": "研究记录: 评估电网配电侧扩容压力与变压器升级周期对高密度AI算力电力需求的约束",
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        },
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          "title": "电力/电网瓶颈下，半导体能效演进能否通过提升单位功耗算力来对冲基础设施的物理上限？（工作日期...",
          "summary": "电力/电网瓶颈下，半导体能效演进能否通过提升单位功耗算力来对冲基础设施的物理上限？（工作日期：2026-06-28）",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "ETN",
        "002028.SZ",
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        "600089.SH",
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b37a11e5a3",
      "title": "FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b37a11e5a3/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
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          "title": "电力/电网瓶颈下，半导体能效演进能否通过提升单位功耗算力来对冲基础设施的物理上限？（工作日期...",
          "summary": "电力/电网瓶颈下，半导体能效演进能否通过提升单位功耗算力来对冲基础设施的物理上限？（工作日期：2026-06-28）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a912552ddea3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "研究记录: AI能效约束下半导体架构的演进：从算力密度向能效比与带宽效率的范式转移",
          "summary": "研究记录: AI能效约束下半导体架构的演进：从算力密度向能效比与带宽效率的范式转移",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c26359b47f56/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-100e81e234",
      "title": "AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-100e81e234/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
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      "conviction": 65,
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          "summary": "电力/电网瓶颈下，半导体能效演进能否通过提升单位功耗算力来对冲基础设施的物理上限？（工作日期：2026-06-28）",
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        },
        {
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          "summary": "报告日期： 2026年6月28日 - 作者： 半导体分析师 ( semiconductors-analyst ) - 研究来源：已归档 - 研究记录索引： 03/10 - 当前立场： 支撑 (Support，通...",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-f3989d02c5",
      "title": "全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。",
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      "conviction": 65,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电网端成本压力对 AI 算力资产 ROI 的影响：会迫使云厂商降低部署密度吗？",
          "summary": "电网端成本压力对 AI 算力资产 ROI 的影响：会迫使云厂商降低部署密度吗？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-afeaf8ac4da9/",
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        },
        {
          "title": "功率半导体与电力电子供应链：缓解AI算力电力瓶颈的技术路径评估",
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      "titleEn": "High-margin export materials require confirmation of profit recovery",
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        {
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          "summary": "分析日期： 2026-06-28 分析师： TMT Analyst (tmt-analyst) 立场： 压力测试 (stress-test)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-01675808dfb5/",
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        },
        {
          "title": "DSP钉死、利润率泄漏天花板下A股AI硬件/光模块仓位的定量配置与拥挤度",
          "summary": "DSP钉死、利润率泄漏天花板下A股AI硬件/光模块仓位的定量配置与拥挤度",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-be91bfe6ee",
      "title": "高纯石英材料需求需由先进封装订单验证",
      "titleEn": "High-purity quartz demand requires validation from advanced-packaging orders",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-be91bfe6ee/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
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      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "半导体自主可控与先进封装的产能及估值突破",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ）· 工作日期：2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：support",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-60c8917c2d41/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-06-28 研究研究记录06：先进封装与硅光对“双轨AI网络”的硬件压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-06-28 研究研究记录06：先进封装与硅光对“双轨AI网络”的硬件压力测试",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-f5d7a79c82",
      "title": "HBM4、CoWoS 与背面供电正在成为 AI 服务器需求曲线的串行闸门",
      "titleEn": "HBM4, CoWoS, and backside power are becoming serial gates for the AI-server demand curve",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5d7a79c82/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
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        {
          "title": "2026-06-28 半导体分析师报告：先进封装（CoWoS）与背面供电（BSPD）能否抵消GB200级芯片不断上升...",
          "summary": "2026-06-28 半导体分析师报告：先进封装（CoWoS）与背面供电（BSPD）能否抵消GB200级芯片不断上升的功率需求？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2d5f03f1333e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "先进封装（HBM4/BSPDN）功率密度提升如何重构超大规模数据中心液冷需求与机架配电架构",
          "summary": "先进封装（HBM4/BSPDN）功率密度提升如何重构超大规模数据中心液冷需求与机架配电架构",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-55a44bc817be/",
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        "AMD",
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        "ASML"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-9d3836cc07",
      "title": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证",
      "titleEn": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d3836cc07/",
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      "conviction": 58,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI 基础设施资本开支的可持续性：AI 裁员压力能否动摇算力基建的投资需求？",
          "summary": "AI 基础设施资本开支的可持续性：AI 裁员压力能否动摇算力基建的投资需求？ 研究院工作日锚定日期：2026-06-28 分析师：AI 基础设施分析师 (AI Infrastructure Analyst - ID: ai-infrastructure...",
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        },
        {
          "title": "研究记录：截至2026-06-28，电力交付瓶颈对Hyperscaler CAPEX、生产率预期与跨资产定价的影响",
          "summary": "研究记录：截至2026-06-28，电力交付瓶颈对Hyperscaler CAPEX、生产率预期与跨资产定价的影响",
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    {
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      "title": "中国大健康 Alpha 正从医保压价转向创新药出海、临床确定性与设备刚需",
      "titleEn": "China healthcare alpha is moving from reimbursement pressure to overseas licensing, clinical certainty, and equipment...",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-44cf9d91f6/",
      "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b",
      "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 57,
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        },
        {
          "title": "A股大健康配置压力测试 — 工作日期：2026-06-28",
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      "titleEn": "China asset pricing remains driven by policy, liquidity, and risk appetite",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ce29facfbd/",
      "laneId": "lane_a8d9c69ae883",
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          "summary": "2026-06-28 首席策略师：黄金+结构性金属通胀对冲的A股落地方案",
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        {
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          "summary": "2026-06-28 — 策略研究记录04：人民币“受控渐进贬值”如何塑造A股风格轮动与板块配置",
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      "laneId": "lane_7e439482cbef",
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      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9e97140446/",
      "laneId": "lane_e4b72516d71a",
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      "conviction": 49,
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          "title": "AI电力设备制造产能与A股供应商交付能力评估报告 (2026-06-28)",
          "summary": "AI电力设备制造产能与A股供应商交付能力评估报告 (2026-06-28)",
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        {
          "title": "变压器及电力设备产业链的产能瓶颈与原材料供应弹性 (2026-06-28)",
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      "title": "家装链的胜负手在存量房翻新、国补触达与地产后周期库存去化",
      "titleEn": "Home improvement depends on existing-home renovation, subsidy reach, and post-property inventory digestion",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-aa97a5c1b3/",
      "laneId": "lane_1efa26c729b6",
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          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-28 分析师： 主题研究员 立场： 压力测试 (对“国补”政策退坡后的国内家居零售需求及跨境关税冲击下的瑞尔特出口盈利能力进行定量压力测试)",
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        {
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          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b5546c5f51fa/",
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          "summary": "压力测试\"AI拯救锂价\"论：数据中心电力与储能需求真实且具结构性，但规模太小、节奏太滞后，无法为三季度锂价托底",
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    {
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      "title": "纺织服装出口链的 Alpha 取决于棉价、库存周期、品牌折扣与合规转移",
      "titleEn": "Textile and apparel export alpha depends on cotton, inventory cycles, brand discounting, and compliance relocation",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d1c60d5af6/",
      "laneId": "lane_856b47b8b1d9",
      "lane": "纺织服装/出口库存周期",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/textile-apparel-export-and-inventory-cycle/",
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          "stance": "risk",
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        {
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          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-28（Asia/Singapore 工作日） 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 ( global-macro ) 项目： KB 刷新追踪：棉花（KB 刷新追踪: 棉花 - auto-spawn 4） 研究记录 立场： 对研究记录 03...",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-bb46b0c3de",
      "title": "USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bb46b0c3de/",
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      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
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      "events": [
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          "title": "JPY/CHF 融资成本动态与 USD/CNH 期权对冲策略的有效性评估",
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          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2d007ad3e455/",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-f23572dfb8",
      "title": "Advance th_p_2ca41751 (能源价格冲突引发的全球通胀路径分化): 若 Brent 在停火提案与航运威胁之间维持 85…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Advance th_p_2ca41751 (能源价格冲突引发的全球通胀路径分化): 若 Brent 在停火提案与航运威胁之间维持 85…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f23572dfb8/",
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      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "压力测试油价逆转：布伦特能否守住70-80美元，反弹是否足以重燃通胀？",
          "summary": "研究板块： [source-id-redacted] · 研究记录 分析师： energy-analyst（能源行业分析师）· 工作日期： 2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： stress-test（对 research note 偏...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bea842726a80/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "0857.HK",
        "SLB"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-950a54ea98",
      "title": "保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-950a54ea98/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "JPY/CHF 融资成本动态与 USD/CNH 期权对冲策略的有效性评估",
          "summary": "JPY/CHF 融资成本动态与 USD/CNH 期权对冲策略的有效性评估 报告日期：2026-06-28 分析师：全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst - agy) 当前立场：压力测试 (Stress-test)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2d007ad3e455/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-80c15f4a7d",
      "title": "再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-80c15f4a7d/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
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      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "JPY/CHF 融资成本动态与 USD/CNH 期权对冲策略的有效性评估",
          "summary": "JPY/CHF 融资成本动态与 USD/CNH 期权对冲策略的有效性评估 报告日期：2026-06-28 分析师：全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst - agy) 当前立场：压力测试 (Stress-test)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2d007ad3e455/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "UUP",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-f0b8d44918",
      "title": "美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f0b8d44918/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-06-28 - 压力测试：0%远期风险准备金率会把USD/CNY套利盘变成人民币贬值的杠杆放大器吗？",
          "summary": "2026-06-28 - 压力测试：0%远期风险准备金率会把USD/CNY套利盘变成人民币贬值的杠杆放大器吗？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-00cf55b661ef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-b6e4c7b469",
      "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b6e4c7b469/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
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      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "研究记录: 评估电网配电侧扩容压力与变压器升级周期对高密度AI算力电力需求的约束",
          "summary": "研究记录: 评估电网配电侧扩容压力与变压器升级周期对高密度AI算力电力需求的约束",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7574f7748f6/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "ETN",
        "VST",
        "CEG",
        "002028.SZ",
        "600089.SH",
        "601179.SH"
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    {
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      "title": "在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-24cd0b5ff9/",
      "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a",
      "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电力与电网瓶颈对 AI 超算中心 Capex 的压力测试：截至 2026-06-28",
          "summary": "电力与电网瓶颈对 AI 超算中心 Capex 的压力测试：截至 2026-06-28",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-312da122262e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
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      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "GOOGL",
        "AMZN",
        "NVDA"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-29b1c0d6c7",
      "title": "日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-29b1c0d6c7/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储利率路径“更高更久”对USD/CNY及亚洲货币汇率的影响及套利交易逻辑报告 (2026-06-28)",
          "summary": "美联储利率路径“更高更久”对USD/CNY及亚洲货币汇率的影响及套利交易逻辑报告 (2026-06-28)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d32fa4937911/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-f62e29bf1c",
      "title": "在SpaceX将于6月12日进行股权交易且美债高企下，太空经济是否已告别散户概念炒作，转向由SpaceX价格伞、国防合同与垂直整合总装定…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在SpaceX将于6月12日进行股权交易且美债高企下，太空经济是否已告别散户概念炒作，转向由SpaceX价格伞、国防合同与垂直整合总装定…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f62e29bf1c/",
      "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f",
      "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "SpaceX 光环退潮后的空间经济重分层",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 作者角色: 首席策略师（A股策略、风格轮动、行业配置） 工作日期: 2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场: 初始 · 根主题: SpaceX 光环退潮后的空间经济重分层",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bdd9f19f8aaf/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
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        "RKLB",
        "ASTS",
        "RDW",
        "300762.SZ",
        "LUNR"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-6ae5e48f60",
      "title": "折算率冲击目前更像高估值拥挤交易的局部去杠杆，而非已经形成全市场融资平仓链条。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 折算率冲击目前更像高估值拥挤交易的局部去杠杆，而非已经形成全市场融资平仓链条。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6ae5e48f60/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A股两融压力测试 — 背离会不会触发被迫去杠杆？ — 2026-06-28",
          "summary": "A股两融压力测试 — 背离会不会触发被迫去杠杆？ — 2026-06-28",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-254a45d7e3bc/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688008.SH"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-08b70be7bf",
      "title": "在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08b70be7bf/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "研究记录: 评估电网配电侧扩容压力与变压器升级周期对高密度AI算力电力需求的约束",
          "summary": "研究记录: 评估电网配电侧扩容压力与变压器升级周期对高密度AI算力电力需求的约束",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7574f7748f6/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "002028.SZ",
        "ETN",
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        "601179.SH",
        "688676.SH",
        "VST"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-859ab241bf",
      "title": "依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-859ab241bf/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "自主化的重力壁垒：压力测试国产半导体设备与先进封装产能对AI算力爆发的承接力",
          "summary": "自主化的重力壁垒：压力测试国产半导体设备与先进封装产能对AI算力爆发的承接力",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b2ae6aac61a5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "NVDA",
        "ASML",
        "688012.SH",
        "000660.KS",
        "MU",
        "002916.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-97f10202a2",
      "title": "中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-97f10202a2/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-06-28 - 压力测试：0%远期风险准备金率会把USD/CNY套利盘变成人民币贬值的杠杆放大器吗？",
          "summary": "2026-06-28 - 压力测试：0%远期风险准备金率会把USD/CNY套利盘变成人民币贬值的杠杆放大器吗？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-00cf55b661ef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-2ee6c1cf01",
      "title": "39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2ee6c1cf01/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "JPY/CHF 融资成本动态与 USD/CNH 期权对冲策略的有效性评估",
          "summary": "JPY/CHF 融资成本动态与 USD/CNH 期权对冲策略的有效性评估 报告日期：2026-06-28 分析师：全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst - agy) 当前立场：压力测试 (Stress-test)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2d007ad3e455/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-7a2fc614c1",
      "title": "在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a2fc614c1/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电力/电网瓶颈下，半导体能效演进能否通过提升单位功耗算力来对冲基础设施的物理上限？（工作日期...",
          "summary": "电力/电网瓶颈下，半导体能效演进能否通过提升单位功耗算力来对冲基础设施的物理上限？（工作日期：2026-06-28）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a912552ddea3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "002028.SZ",
        "600089.SH",
        "601179.SH",
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "CEG",
        "VST"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-db003202fc",
      "title": "国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db003202fc/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "JPY/CHF 融资成本动态与 USD/CNH 期权对冲策略的有效性评估",
          "summary": "JPY/CHF 融资成本动态与 USD/CNH 期权对冲策略的有效性评估 报告日期：2026-06-28 分析师：全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst - agy) 当前立场：压力测试 (Stress-test)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2d007ad3e455/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-2aa156c4c9",
      "title": "2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2aa156c4c9/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-06-28 - 压力测试：0%远期风险准备金率会把USD/CNY套利盘变成人民币贬值的杠杆放大器吗？",
          "summary": "2026-06-28 - 压力测试：0%远期风险准备金率会把USD/CNY套利盘变成人民币贬值的杠杆放大器吗？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-00cf55b661ef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-54a65a88ba",
      "title": "请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-54a65a88ba/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "JPY/CHF 融资成本动态与 USD/CNH 期权对冲策略的有效性评估",
          "summary": "JPY/CHF 融资成本动态与 USD/CNH 期权对冲策略的有效性评估 报告日期：2026-06-28 分析师：全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst - agy) 当前立场：压力测试 (Stress-test)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2d007ad3e455/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "UUP",
        "FXI",
        "2800.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-11523cabbd",
      "title": "熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-11523cabbd/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储利率路径“更高更久”对USD/CNY及亚洲货币汇率的影响及套利交易逻辑报告 (2026-06-28)",
          "summary": "美联储利率路径“更高更久”对USD/CNY及亚洲货币汇率的影响及套利交易逻辑报告 (2026-06-28)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d32fa4937911/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-94e0c46a69",
      "title": "USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-94e0c46a69/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "JPY/CHF 融资成本动态与 USD/CNH 期权对冲策略的有效性评估",
          "summary": "JPY/CHF 融资成本动态与 USD/CNH 期权对冲策略的有效性评估 报告日期：2026-06-28 分析师：全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst - agy) 当前立场：压力测试 (Stress-test)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2d007ad3e455/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f9ce8d294d",
      "title": "人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f9ce8d294d/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "美联储利率路径“更高更久”对USD/CNY及亚洲货币汇率的影响及套利交易逻辑报告 (2026-06-28)",
          "summary": "美联储利率路径“更高更久”对USD/CNY及亚洲货币汇率的影响及套利交易逻辑报告 (2026-06-28)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d32fa4937911/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-662985737d",
      "title": "在12% HIBOR极端挤空及离岸流动性收紧传导下，将USD/CNH期权套保释放的5374万人民币全额转配至离岸存款以锁定12%高息Ca…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在12% HIBOR极端挤空及离岸流动性收紧传导下，将USD/CNH期权套保释放的5374万人民币全额转配至离岸存款以锁定12%高息Ca…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-662985737d/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "JPY/CHF 融资成本动态与 USD/CNH 期权对冲策略的有效性评估",
          "summary": "JPY/CHF 融资成本动态与 USD/CNH 期权对冲策略的有效性评估 报告日期：2026-06-28 分析师：全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst - agy) 当前立场：压力测试 (Stress-test)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2d007ad3e455/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-250964b5dc",
      "title": "强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-250964b5dc/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "JPY/CHF 融资成本动态与 USD/CNH 期权对冲策略的有效性评估",
          "summary": "JPY/CHF 融资成本动态与 USD/CNH 期权对冲策略的有效性评估 报告日期：2026-06-28 分析师：全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst - agy) 当前立场：压力测试 (Stress-test)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2d007ad3e455/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-0bad2eebc1",
      "title": "北美大型云厂商因53个月并网等待和PJM容量价格触及上限，面临80-290bn的Capex下修延期压力，这如何重塑全球AI算力及AS…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 北美大型云厂商因53个月并网等待和PJM容量价格触及上限，面临80-290bn的Capex下修延期压力，这如何重塑全球AI算力及AS…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0bad2eebc1/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电力约束下的算力资产估值逻辑：从Capex扩张向MW效率转型",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-28（亚太/新加坡 - 机构权威工作日） - 研究共享会议路由： [source-id-redacted] - 研究记录位置： 研究记录 核心立场：支持（Support） - 分析师： 首席...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-66856a12a889/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "002028.SZ",
        "600089.SH",
        "ETN",
        "CEG",
        "601179.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-87af28db3e",
      "title": "宇航电源份额与卫星交付驱动电科蓝天兑现",
      "titleEn": "Space-Power Share and Satellite Deliveries Drive CETC Solar Energy Monetization",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-87af28db3e/",
      "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f",
      "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 74,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "SpaceX 光环退潮后的空间经济重分层",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 作者角色: 首席策略师（A股策略、风格轮动、行业配置） 工作日期: 2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场: 初始 · 根主题: SpaceX 光环退潮后的空间经济重分层",
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        "ASTS",
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        "LMT"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d0faeae7f0",
      "title": "NAND价格与产品组合驱动SanDisk盈利弹性",
      "titleEn": "NAND pricing and mix drive SanDisk earnings leverage",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d0faeae7f0/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
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        {
          "title": "2026-06-28 策略卡：Micron FQ3-26把AI内存推成利润池再分配问题",
          "summary": "2026-06-28 策略卡：Micron FQ3-26把AI内存推成利润池再分配问题",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-284fa6aafb59/",
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        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "MU",
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        "META",
        "AMD"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-b13c7cf092",
      "title": "高纯石英材料受益于先进封装扩产，但兑现取决于认证与产品结构",
      "titleEn": "High-purity quartz can benefit from advanced-packaging expansion, conditional on qualification and mix",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13c7cf092/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
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          "title": "半导体自主可控与先进封装的产能及估值突破",
          "summary": "研究研究记录 · 半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ）· 工作日期：2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：support",
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        "NVDA",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS",
        "ASML",
        "688012.SH",
        "002916.SZ"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-2a12467f9b",
      "title": "卫星电源壁垒需由发射节奏和单星价值量持续验证",
      "titleEn": "Satellite-power barriers require continued validation through launch cadence and content per spacecraft",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2a12467f9b/",
      "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f",
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      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/",
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          "title": "SpaceX 光环退潮后的空间经济重分层",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 作者角色: 首席策略师（A股策略、风格轮动、行业配置） 工作日期: 2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场: 初始 · 根主题: SpaceX 光环退潮后的空间经济重分层",
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        "ASTS",
        "600118.SH",
        "IRDM",
        "RDW",
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        "LMT"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0",
      "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层",
      "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/",
      "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a",
      "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/",
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      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 1,
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        {
          "title": "AI 基础设施资本开支的可持续性：AI 裁员压力能否动摇算力基建的投资需求？",
          "summary": "AI 基础设施资本开支的可持续性：AI 裁员压力能否动摇算力基建的投资需求？ 研究院工作日锚定日期：2026-06-28 分析师：AI 基础设施分析师 (AI Infrastructure Analyst - ID: ai-infrastructure...",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
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      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "NVDA",
        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL",
        "TSM",
        "AVGO",
        "AAPL",
        "TSLA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-0346c87b0c",
      "title": "当前AI算力扩容的主瓶颈是电力和电网交付第一、芯片第二；没有已通电MW背书的纸面算力应被折价。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当前AI算力扩容的主瓶颈是电力和电网交付第一、芯片第二；没有已通电MW背书的纸面算力应被折价。",
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      "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/",
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      "conviction": 67,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电力约束下的算力资产估值逻辑：从Capex扩张向MW效率转型",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-28（亚太/新加坡 - 机构权威工作日） - 研究共享会议路由： [source-id-redacted] - 研究记录位置： 研究记录 核心立场：支持（Support） - 分析师： 首席...",
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        "ETN",
        "CEG",
        "VST",
        "601985.SH"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-40b8638803",
      "title": "全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-40b8638803/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
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        {
          "title": "自主化的重力壁垒：压力测试国产半导体设备与先进封装产能对AI算力爆发的承接力",
          "summary": "自主化的重力壁垒：压力测试国产半导体设备与先进封装产能对AI算力爆发的承接力",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b2ae6aac61a5/",
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        }
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        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "000660.KS",
        "MU",
        "688012.SH",
        "ASML"
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      "id": "thesis-612f83a611",
      "title": "地缘原油冲击导致的通胀传导（推升核心PCE至4.16%）将促使无前瞻指引的沃什美联储通过在9月和年底连续加息两次（至4.00%–4.25…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘原油冲击导致的通胀传导（推升核心PCE至4.16%）将促使无前瞻指引的沃什美联储通过在9月和年底连续加息两次（至4.00%–4.25…",
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      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 0,
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      "events": [
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          "summary": "美联储六月决议与五月PCE通胀超预期：华许时代的“鹰派维持”与利率路径再评估 分析师： global-macro (全球宏观分析师) 报告日期： 2026年6月28日 研究来源：已归档",
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        "OXY",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-a119a01ce4",
      "title": "评估AI算力能耗增长对电力与电网瓶颈的影响，以及能源成本压力如何传导至下游CXO产业链。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 评估AI算力能耗增长对电力与电网瓶颈的影响，以及能源成本压力如何传导至下游CXO产业链。",
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      "conviction": 66,
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      "events": [
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          "title": "研究记录: 评估电网配电侧扩容压力与变压器升级周期对高密度AI算力电力需求的约束",
          "summary": "研究记录: 评估电网配电侧扩容压力与变压器升级周期对高密度AI算力电力需求的约束",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7574f7748f6/",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-8bbbcdf5a4",
      "title": "GPU、HBM 与先进封装决定 AI 资本开支供给节奏",
      "titleEn": "GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging shape the AI capex supply cycle",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8bbbcdf5a4/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
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      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
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      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "自主化的重力壁垒：压力测试国产半导体设备与先进封装产能对AI算力爆发的承接力",
          "summary": "自主化的重力壁垒：压力测试国产半导体设备与先进封装产能对AI算力爆发的承接力",
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        "TSM",
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        "AMD",
        "AVGO",
        "MU",
        "MSFT",
        "000660.KS",
        "GOOGL",
        "AMZN"
      ]
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    {
      "id": "thesis-c89650af9e",
      "title": "酒店餐饮休闲复苏正在从客流修复转向 RevPAR、翻台率与小盘 Alpha",
      "titleEn": "Leisure, hotels, and restaurants are moving from traffic recovery to RevPAR, table turnover, and small-cap alpha",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c89650af9e/",
      "laneId": "lane_dd5a3eb17672",
      "lane": "酒店餐饮休闲/服务消费",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/hotels-restaurants-leisure-and-services-consumption/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "酒店、餐馆与休闲产业链 —— 低覆盖标的与跨链外溢风险",
          "summary": "· 消费行业分析师 (consumer-analyst) 工作日期：2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场：initial",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f0864959635b/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
        "9922.HK",
        "3690.HK",
        "001215.SZ",
        "YUMC",
        "300144.SZ",
        "1179.HK",
        "0780.HK",
        "605108.SH",
        "9658.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-8b23f98d54",
      "title": "四大云厂商2026年创纪录的7250亿美元CapEx具有强战略刚性，但变压器3-6年交期与电网并网时滞导致800-1100亿美元开支递延…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 四大云厂商2026年创纪录的7250亿美元CapEx具有强战略刚性，但变压器3-6年交期与电网并网时滞导致800-1100亿美元开支递延…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8b23f98d54/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电力约束下的算力资产估值逻辑：从Capex扩张向MW效率转型",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-28（亚太/新加坡 - 机构权威工作日） - 研究共享会议路由： [source-id-redacted] - 研究记录位置： 研究记录 核心立场：支持（Support） - 分析师： 首席...",
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        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "601179.SH",
        "VST",
        "002028.SZ",
        "600089.SH",
        "CEG"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-4e383ee09c",
      "title": "2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4e383ee09c/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
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      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电力与电网瓶颈对 AI 超算中心 Capex 的压力测试：截至 2026-06-28",
          "summary": "电力与电网瓶颈对 AI 超算中心 Capex 的压力测试：截至 2026-06-28",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-312da122262e/",
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "TSM",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS"
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      "title": "复合材料业务修复向利润增长传导",
      "titleEn": "Composite-Materials Recovery Transmits into Earnings Growth",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-025e4c0d2d/",
      "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80",
      "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 64,
      "supports": 0,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "变压器及电力设备产业链的产能瓶颈与原材料供应弹性 (2026-06-28)",
          "summary": "变压器及电力设备产业链的产能瓶颈与原材料供应弹性 (2026-06-28)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-82d21b83a2ea/",
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "002028.SZ",
        "300750.SZ",
        "002080.SZ"
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      "title": "MSCI 调整窗口是被动资金与主动减仓相互博弈的流动性事件",
      "titleEn": "MSCI rebalance windows are liquidity events where passive demand meets active exits",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-029ce03da1/",
      "laneId": "lane_122bdfde6ea9",
      "lane": "指数调仓/被动资金事件",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/index-rebalance-and-passive-flow-events/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 64,
      "supports": 1,
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      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "MOCVD/MBE出口管制下中国上游光芯片（EML/DSP/InP）国产替代进度与AI硬件估值天花板",
          "summary": "MOCVD/MBE出口管制下中国上游光芯片（EML/DSP/InP）国产替代进度与AI硬件估值天花板",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c9d43c6f417a/",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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        "0700.HK",
        "9988.HK",
        "KWEB",
        "300308.SZ",
        "510300.SH",
        "2800.HK",
        "0981.HK",
        "3690.HK",
        "600900.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-89c14497ac",
      "title": "期权伽马、ETF 与尾盘流动性正在放大主题交易的微观结构风险",
      "titleEn": "Options gamma, ETFs, and closing liquidity are amplifying microstructure risk in theme trades",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-89c14497ac/",
      "laneId": "lane_2ba2ee6db1ee",
      "lane": "期权伽马/市场微观结构",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/options-gamma-and-market-microstructure/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 62,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "满仓拥挤、保护偏薄：期权盘面真的在说\"没有为尾部付费\"吗？",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： global-macro（全球宏观分析师） 工作日： 2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场： stress-test（对字面命题部分证伪，对底层脆弱性给予支持） 根主题： Monday-open gap 风...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ff28a60bfc0e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "CBOE",
        "CME",
        "HOOD",
        "IBKR",
        "VIRT",
        "VIXY"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-7a6599a3f5",
      "title": "新一代信息技术国产替代要从信创叙事进入算力、软件与安全订单验证",
      "titleEn": "Domestic IT substitution must move from policy narrative to compute, software, and security order proof",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a6599a3f5/",
      "laneId": "lane_e4f90acbf804",
      "lane": "信创/国产 IT 栈",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/domestic-it-substitution-stack/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 62,
      "supports": 0,
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          "title": "自主化的重力壁垒：压力测试国产半导体设备与先进封装产能对AI算力爆发的承接力",
          "summary": "自主化的重力壁垒：压力测试国产半导体设备与先进封装产能对AI算力爆发的承接力",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b2ae6aac61a5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
        "688256.SH",
        "688041.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "300308.SZ",
        "NVDA",
        "000977.SZ",
        "688008.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "688111.SH"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-3986819dc0",
      "title": "A 股半导体的核心风险从订单验证转向 A/H 溢价、两融与负 Gamma",
      "titleEn": "A-share semiconductor risk is shifting from order proof to A/H premium, margin financing, and negative gamma",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3986819dc0/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 61,
      "supports": 0,
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          "title": "自主化的重力壁垒：压力测试国产半导体设备与先进封装产能对AI算力爆发的承接力",
          "summary": "自主化的重力壁垒：压力测试国产半导体设备与先进封装产能对AI算力爆发的承接力",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b2ae6aac61a5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "688256.SH",
        "0981.HK",
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        "688012.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "300308.SZ",
        "002371.SZ"
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      "id": "thesis-075017003b",
      "title": "AI 资本开支通过能源、设备和利率进入通胀定价",
      "titleEn": "AI capex enters inflation pricing through energy, equipment, and rates",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-075017003b/",
      "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08",
      "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "stable",
      "directionLabel": "稳定",
      "conviction": 55,
      "supports": 0,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "结构性电价通胀、AI-capex 折旧悬挂与 6 月点阵图",
          "summary": "机构权威工作日期：2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡）[S0] 分析师：全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ）[S0] 研究记录 —— 立场：综合（synthesize）[S0]",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-46cd0f639c79/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL",
        "XLE",
        "TLT",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-42faeae623",
      "title": "CPO、光互联与铜连接决定 AI 集群内部租金迁移",
      "titleEn": "CPO, optical interconnect, and copper links define rent migration inside AI clusters",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-42faeae623/",
      "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956",
      "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
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      "conviction": 55,
      "supports": 0,
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      "events": [
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          "title": "2026-06-28 研究研究记录06：先进封装与硅光对“双轨AI网络”的硬件压力测试",
          "summary": "2026-06-28 研究研究记录06：先进封装与硅光对“双轨AI网络”的硬件压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d616c7612f82/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      ],
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        "NVDA",
        "AVGO",
        "META",
        "COHR",
        "LITE",
        "300394.SZ",
        "MRVL",
        "TSM",
        "MSFT"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-21dd72c1b1",
      "title": "航空航天与国防供应链错配正在形成政策驱动的制造业弹性",
      "titleEn": "Aerospace and defense supply-chain mismatch is creating policy-driven manufacturing beta",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-21dd72c1b1/",
      "laneId": "lane_1514a60f727a",
      "lane": "国防航空航天供应链",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/defense-and-aerospace-supply-chain/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 55,
      "supports": 0,
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          "title": "出口管制威胁对A股高端环节溢价的压力测试：宝钢（GOES）与紫金矿业（铜）",
          "summary": "出口管制威胁对A股高端环节溢价的压力测试：宝钢（GOES）与紫金矿业（铜） 研究研究研究记录 分析日期： 2026-06-28（机构权威工作日，亚洲/新加坡时区） 分析师： 政策分析师（制裁与出口管制...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-07c0887ba439/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "LMT",
        "RTX",
        "NOC",
        "RKLB",
        "BA",
        "CAT",
        "IRDM",
        "ASTS",
        "HWM"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-08dd090dc9",
      "title": "公用事业从防御红利切换到电网扩容、容量费与信用再定价",
      "titleEn": "Utilities are shifting from defensive dividends to grid expansion, capacity fees, and credit repricing",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08dd090dc9/",
      "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e",
      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 53,
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      "risks": 0,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "表后（BTM）数据中心资源的公用事业定价、并网和可靠性成本分摊机制",
          "summary": "Date: June 28, 2026 Analyst ID: utilities-analyst research thread ID: [source-id-redacted] 研究记录序号: 03/10 Stance: Synthesize",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-467f0a89cc06/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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        "600900.SH",
        "CEG",
        "DUK",
        "VST",
        "XLU",
        "META",
        "NEE",
        "SMR",
        "GEV"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3d421524cd",
      "title": "油价地缘底线决定再通胀与降息交易的安全边际",
      "titleEn": "The geopolitical oil floor defines the margin of safety for disinflation and rate-cut trades",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3d421524cd/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 50,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "压力测试油价逆转：布伦特能否守住70-80美元，反弹是否足以重燃通胀？",
          "summary": "研究板块： [source-id-redacted] · 研究记录 分析师： energy-analyst（能源行业分析师）· 工作日期： 2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： stress-test（对 research note 偏...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bea842726a80/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
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        "CME",
        "CVX",
        "XOM",
        "600938.SH",
        "600900.SH",
        "0857.HK",
        "COP",
        "601857.SH"
      ]
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    {
      "id": "thesis-5057edfa79",
      "title": "AI-Biology 与医疗效率改善需要从科研突破走向支付和监管兑现",
      "titleEn": "AI biology and healthcare productivity must move from research breakthroughs to reimbursement and regulatory proof",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5057edfa79/",
      "laneId": "lane_2eefe4e126c6",
      "lane": "AI 医疗/生物科技效率",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-healthcare-and-biology-productivity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 48,
      "supports": 0,
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      "events": [
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          "title": "一周内两笔并购：AbbVie/APGE 与 Merck KGaA/TECH 对生物科技与生命科学工具估值底线意味着什么",
          "summary": "一周内两笔并购：AbbVie/APGE 与 Merck KGaA/TECH 对生物科技与生命科学工具估值底线意味着什么",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-44ae16e1f251/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "688271.SH",
        "300633.SZ",
        "688212.SH",
        "2359.HK",
        "2269.HK",
        "688617.SH",
        "DHR",
        "SDGR"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-2ec6b9d3ee",
      "title": "卫星直连与商业航天从概念弹性进入部署兑现期",
      "titleEn": "Direct-to-device satellite and commercial space are moving from concept beta to deployment proof",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2ec6b9d3ee/",
      "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f",
      "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/",
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      "conviction": 46,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "SpaceX 光环退潮后的空间经济重分层",
          "summary": "研究记录 · 作者角色: 首席策略师（A股策略、风格轮动、行业配置） 工作日期: 2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场: 初始 · 根主题: SpaceX 光环退潮后的空间经济重分层",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bdd9f19f8aaf/",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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        "ASTS",
        "RDW",
        "IRDM",
        "LUNR",
        "LMT",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-e26ef69f73",
      "title": "风险核查与证据质量是主题交易的必要过滤器",
      "titleEn": "Risk verification and evidence quality are necessary filters for theme trades",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e26ef69f73/",
      "laneId": "lane_ccbe817778d1",
      "lane": "组合风控/证据质量",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/portfolio-risk-and-evidence-quality/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
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      "conviction": 44,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-06-28 首席经济学家研究记录：美国通胀降温停滞，美联储看跌期权仍被推迟",
          "summary": "2026-06-28 首席经济学家研究记录：美国通胀降温停滞，美联储看跌期权仍被推迟",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ae3d302a113b/",
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "CBOE",
        "IBKR",
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      "id": "thesis-f73697f8a1",
      "title": "超导量子计算的政策订单期权尚未转化为规模化收入",
      "titleEn": "Policy and contract optionality in superconducting quantum computing has yet to become scaled revenue",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f73697f8a1/",
      "laneId": "lane_c757b1ff0c8a",
      "lane": "超导量子计算订单商业化",
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          "title": "量子硬件技术路线图：技术突破的黎明，还是资本运作窗口？",
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        "MSFT",
        "RGTI",
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      "convictionTotal": 261,
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        "SMR",
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        "AEP",
        "NVDA"
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      "convictionTotal": 213,
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        "MSFT",
        "GOOGL",
        "AMZN",
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        "TSLA"
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      "avgConviction": 71
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      "avgConviction": 77
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      "name": "JPMorgan Chase",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/JPM/",
      "thesisCount": 2,
      "eventCount": 7,
      "lanes": [
        "美债利率/美元再定价"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "300308.SZ",
      "name": "中际旭创",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/300308.SZ/",
      "thesisCount": 5,
      "eventCount": 6,
      "lanes": [
        "指数调仓/被动资金事件",
        "信创/国产 IT 栈",
        "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
        "CPO/光模块/高速互联",
        "中国权益流动性"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "600690.SH",
      "name": "海尔智家",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/600690.SH/",
      "thesisCount": 3,
      "eventCount": 6,
      "lanes": [
        "中国出口制造/利润率",
        "家装/地产后周期"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "000333.SZ",
      "name": "美的集团",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/000333.SZ/",
      "thesisCount": 3,
      "eventCount": 6,
      "lanes": [
        "中国出口制造/利润率",
        "家装/地产后周期"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "2313.HK",
      "name": "申洲国际",
      "market": "HK",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/2313.HK/",
      "thesisCount": 3,
      "eventCount": 6,
      "lanes": [
        "中国出口制造/利润率",
        "纺织服装/出口库存周期"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "300760.SZ",
      "name": "迈瑞医疗",
      "market": "A-share",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/300760.SZ/",
      "thesisCount": 3,
      "eventCount": 6,
      "lanes": [
        "消费降级/健康银发",
        "中国大健康/创新药出海",
        "AI 医疗/生物科技效率"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "RKLB",
      "name": "Rocket Lab",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/RKLB/",
      "thesisCount": 5,
      "eventCount": 5,
      "lanes": [
        "商业航天/卫星直连",
        "国防航空航天供应链"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "personas": [],
  "episodes": [],
  "milestones": [],
  "topicCounts": [
    {
      "id": "macro-rates",
      "labelZh": "宏观、通胀与利率",
      "labelEn": "Macro, inflation and rates",
      "color": "red",
      "keywords": [
        "宏观",
        "通胀",
        "inflation",
        "利率",
        "yield",
        "美联储",
        "fed",
        "cpi",
        "pce",
        "美元"
      ],
      "count": 149
    },
    {
      "id": "ai-infrastructure",
      "labelZh": "AI 基础设施",
      "labelEn": "AI infrastructure",
      "color": "blue",
      "keywords": [
        "ai 基础设施",
        "ai infrastructure",
        "算力",
        "gpu",
        "数据中心",
        "data center",
        "nvda",
        "nvidia"
      ],
      "count": 46
    },
    {
      "id": "power-grid",
      "labelZh": "电力与电网",
      "labelEn": "Power and grid",
      "color": "green",
      "keywords": [
        "电力",
        "电网",
        "power",
        "grid",
        "变压器",
        "并网",
        "ppa",
        "核电",
        "电气设备"
      ],
      "count": 35
    },
    {
      "id": "semis-memory",
      "labelZh": "半导体、存储与光互联",
      "labelEn": "Semis, memory and optical",
      "color": "yellow",
      "keywords": [
        "半导体",
        "hbm",
        "存储",
        "memory",
        "cpo",
        "光模块",
        "先进封装",
        "micron",
        "mu"
      ],
      "count": 11
    },
    {
      "id": "risk-portfolio",
      "labelZh": "风险与组合",
      "labelEn": "Risk and portfolio",
      "color": "red",
      "keywords": [
        "风险",
        "组合",
        "对冲",
        "波动率",
        "期权",
        "portfolio",
        "hedge",
        "volatility",
        "risk budget"
      ],
      "count": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "research-system",
      "labelZh": "综合研究",
      "labelEn": "Integrated research",
      "color": "yellow",
      "count": 2
    }
  ],
  "analystCounts": [
    {
      "label": "未识别",
      "count": 246
    }
  ],
  "categoryCounts": [
    {
      "label": "其他",
      "count": 246
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "contemporaneous": true,
    "note": "This day view is assembled from public, date-stamped AI Institute research contracts."
  }
}