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的结论做“综合”而非推翻：休闲服务不是干净复苏，但证据更像周期性收入/财富信心压力叠加更持久的性价比偏好，而不是单向的结构性降级。2026 年五一假期国...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-abebd66fc4a7", "title": "通胀重置背景下调节性水电及电力资产的防御价值评估报告", "date": "2026-06-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-abebd66fc4a7/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "报告日期： 2026-06-27 分析师： 公用事业分析师 ( utilities-analyst ) 研究来源：已归档 研究记录索引： 03/10 研究立场： 支持 (SUPPORT，评估并验证在美...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-98451fe0fa87", "title": "压力测试半导体震源：强平与负Gamma传导下的估值弹性", "date": "2026-06-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-98451fe0fa87/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究记录 · 作者角色： 半导体分析师（semiconductors-analyst） 工作日期： 2026-06-27（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场： stress-test → 部分支持，但把尾部削得更尖锐", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "A股", "港美股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-dbb3c23a6352", "title": 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Identify the 3-5 under-covered names with...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "农业行业分析师", "noteCount": 5, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "美国再通胀韧性与 Fed 更久维持限制性政策", "question": "截至2026-06-27，美国最新通胀、就业、活动和利率数据是否支持继续对久期和风险资产保持谨慎？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席经济学家", "noteCount": 5, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "红利防御拥挤：长江电力是无风险底座还是全所同向的新拥挤交易？", "question": "本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(thematic给20%权重)，但china-macro已量化10Y从1.73%上行15-25bp会令...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 4, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "美国PCE再加速与美联储加息尾部风险阈值", "question": "在2026年5月PCE发布和2026年6月FOMC按兵不动之后，美联储是否已从“higher-for-longer”的观望状态，转向真正存在加息尾部风险的状态？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 2, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" } ], "thesisEvents": [ { "id": "thesis-f23572dfb8", "title": "Advance th_p_2ca41751 (能源价格冲突引发的全球通胀路径分化): 若 Brent 在停火提案与航运威胁之间维持 85…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Advance th_p_2ca41751 (能源价格冲突引发的全球通胀路径分化): 若 Brent 在停火提案与航运威胁之间维持 85…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f23572dfb8/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 5, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "截至 2026-06-27 的全球能源供应格局与 Brent 油价路径", "summary": "能源行业分析师 工作日期：2026-06-27（Asia/Singapore） 对前序研究立场：支持，但需要仓位纪律", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-905287d4c38f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定...", "summary": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-02578712091d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "地缘供应路径受阻与全球能源通胀传导：剖析2026年5月中东能源价格冲击的影响机制", "summary": "地缘供应路径受阻与全球能源通胀传导：剖析2026年5月中东能源价格冲击的影响机制 作者： 能源行业分析师 ( energy-analyst ) 报告日期： 2026年6月27日 工作日锚定： 2026年06月27日 (亚洲/新加...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-23e2acc2fdd3/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "能源通胀与\"长期高利率\"环境下的风险平价 / 全天候策略再构建", "summary": "作者： 大类资产配置师（ asset-allocator ） 报告日期： 2026年6月27日 工作日锚定： 2026年6月27日（亚洲/新加坡时区） 研究来源：已归档 研究记录 当前立...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-530c29d6d391/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "0857.HK", "SLB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9a926eda26", "title": "本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a926eda26/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "红利防御拥挤：长江电力（600900.SH）是无风险底座，还是全所同向的新拥挤交易？", "summary": "红利防御拥挤：长江电力（600900.SH）是无风险底座，还是全所同向的新拥挤交易？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1eeef5812516/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股消费与红利杠铃再平衡组合：两融信用资金、筹码拥挤度与锁定期解禁压力分布及流动性踩踏压力测...", "summary": "A股消费与红利杠铃再平衡组合：两融信用资金、筹码拥挤度与锁定期解禁压力分布及流动性踩踏压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-309ce1b16027/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "长江电力对冲组合在极端压力情景下的多维测试 — 2026-06-27", "summary": "分析师：首席风控官 (Chief Risk Officer) · 立场：压力测试 (stress-test) · 研究记录", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7eb802f3719a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "曲线陡峭化压力下的对冲工具有效性：用 10Y(T) 对冲长江电力长久期头寸是否优于 30Y(TL)", "summary": "曲线陡峭化压力下的对冲工具有效性：用 10Y(T) 对冲长江电力长久期头寸是否优于 30Y(TL)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aa9d36b193b1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "600905.SH", "DUK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0e520ff02a", "title": "能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e520ff02a/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 8, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-27 首席策略师 研究记录05：非对称美联储下的跨资产杠铃重置——实际对名义久期、TIPS、黄...", "summary": "2026-06-27 首席策略师 研究记录05：非对称美联储下的跨资产杠铃重置——实际对名义久期、TIPS、黄金与美元", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7bdf34c11b37/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "利率曲线压力测试：通胀波动下的美债哑铃与 TIPS 防御效能（工作日：2026-06-27）", "summary": "利率曲线压力测试：通胀波动下的美债哑铃与 TIPS 防御效能（工作日：2026-06-27）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0be640a05f48/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定...", "summary": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-02578712091d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "实际利率与通胀波动预算下的哑铃/TIPS袖套仓位上限与风险预算配置报告", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-06-27（Asia/Singapore） 分析师： 首席策略师 [chief-strategist] 研究记录 当前立场： 压力测试 (stress-test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-97aa419560dd/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CVX", "XOM", "SLB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b3e89f22e6", "title": "在极端关税与30%原料通胀的压力下，全球电网设备（利用率98%、美交期128周）的硬约束赋予A股厂商极强的定价权与贸易规避弹性，其出口高…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在极端关税与30%原料通胀的压力下，全球电网设备（利用率98%、美交期128周）的硬约束赋予A股厂商极强的定价权与贸易规避弹性，其出口高…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b3e89f22e6/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 2, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "铜与取向硅钢对电网设备毛利率的挤压评估 - 2026-06-27", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-27，Asia/Singapore；已用 系统日期锚 在 shell 中确认返回 2026-06-27 [自测算] 分析师：材料行业分析师（ materials-analyst ） 立场：支持，但需更严格区分调价传导机...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2f3021652c3c/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "电网硬件瓶颈：LPT/变压器制造能力与上游电磁钢(GOES)/铜的供应挤压", "summary": "电网硬件瓶颈：LPT/变压器制造能力与上游电磁钢(GOES)/铜的供应挤压", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-db05e0666fc4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "海外电网升级大周期 vs. 原材料成本冲击：A股电网设备出口毛利弹性测试", "summary": "海外电网升级大周期 vs. 原材料成本冲击：A股电网设备出口毛利弹性测试 研究院工作日锚定日期：2026-06-27（Asia/Singapore） 分析师：工业制造分析师（ID: industrials-analyst） 研究记录级别...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8b8a3dde04fd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "策略研究报告：电力电网物理硬约束、资本开支落地延期与A股哑铃配置的量化重构", "summary": "策略研究报告：电力电网物理硬约束、资本开支落地延期与A股哑铃配置的量化重构 研究院工作日锚定日期：2026-06-27 分析师：首席策略师 研究记录级别...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2f4caff22b6e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "GEV", "688676.SH", "ETN", "000400.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-cf6925b02f", "title": "232/301双轨壁垒近端收紧回路、延长轨道时间溢价至2028–2029，但通过抬高美国电气化成本加速AI资本开支ROI清算——约束正从…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 232/301双轨壁垒近端收紧回路、延长轨道时间溢价至2028–2029，但通过抬高美国电气化成本加速AI资本开支ROI清算——约束正从…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-cf6925b02f/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "电网容量与能源保障：评估AI算力扩张下的电力缺口与基础设施响应能力", "summary": "分析日期：2026-06-27 分析师：公用事业分析师 ( utilities-analyst ) 研究来源：已归档 研究记录索引：3/10 研究立场：支持（支持前序 既有研究记录...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-560113b7c46a/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "高利率平台与电力交付约束下AI算力产业链的估值重塑——兼论\"做多电力／做空高杠杆算力租赁\"的跨资...", "summary": "高利率平台与电力交付约束下AI算力产业链的估值重塑——兼论\"做多电力／做空高杠杆算力租赁\"的跨资产配对策略", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-adcc8159c6bf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI算力需求对电力变压器产能的挤压及其对CXO海外基地建设的影响", "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师 ID： ai-infrastructure-analyst (AI 基础设施分析师) - 工作日期： 2026-06-27 (亚洲/新加坡) - 分析立场： 支持 (Support) —— 验证AI数据中心对大功率变压器(LPT)需求的...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bc901a12bcba/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI算力需求扩张与电力电网承载力的匹配性研究压力测试报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-27 (Asia/Singapore) 看板 ID (研究线程标识)： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录序号： 3/8 分析师： AI基础设施分析师 (ID: ai-infrastructure-an...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c6e6e09a9e65/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "GEV", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "ETN", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4ad776c10c", "title": "地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4ad776c10c/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 3, "risks": 6, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "高利率与AI电力容量成本通胀背景下的多资产杠铃策略重校准", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-27（亚太/新加坡 - 机构权威工作日） - 研究来源：已归档 - 共享会议路由： [source-id-redacted] - 研究记录位置： 研...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-68bf11c8581c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电网资本开支周期与电价重估对通胀、利率和生物科技/CDMO估值折现率的传导分析", "summary": "电网资本开支周期与电价重估对通胀、利率和生物科技/CDMO估值折现率的传导分析", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c69f7e06ec86/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力通胀与基建开支下中性利率（r ）重塑与美债期限溢价结构性上行报告 (2026-06-27)", "summary": "电力通胀与基建开支下中性利率（r ）重塑与美债期限溢价结构性上行报告 (2026-06-27) 研究院工作日锚定日期：2026-06-27 分析师：全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst - ID: global-macro) 研...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5f65d5c2385e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-06-27 大类资产配置师 前序研究：高利率与AI电力通胀下的全天候/风险平价预算再校准", "summary": "2026-06-27 大类资产配置师 前序研究：高利率与AI电力通胀下的全天候/风险平价预算再校准", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6182d9844fd3/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c2eb2a0b9d", "title": "AI 租赁营收的兑现并非取决于芯片购买量，而是取决于长达 2-4 年的电力交付周期，物理稀缺性正成为限制营收增速的硬顶。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI 租赁营收的兑现并非取决于芯片购买量，而是取决于长达 2-4 年的电力交付周期，物理稀缺性正成为限制营收增速的硬顶。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c2eb2a0b9d/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 2, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "从\"资本开支壁垒\"到\"兆瓦闸门\"：电网并网延迟与电力价格刚性如何传导至AI算力集群建设成本与超大规...", "summary": "从\"资本开支壁垒\"到\"兆瓦闸门\"：电网并网延迟与电力价格刚性如何传导至AI算力集群建设成本与超大规模云厂商Capex", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8775c0a217d8/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "电网容量与能源保障：评估AI算力扩张下的电力缺口与基础设施响应能力", "summary": "分析日期：2026-06-27 分析师：公用事业分析师 ( utilities-analyst ) 研究来源：已归档 研究记录索引：3/10 研究立场：支持（支持前序 既有研究记录...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-560113b7c46a/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "AI算力需求对电力变压器产能的挤压及其对CXO海外基地建设的影响", "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师 ID： ai-infrastructure-analyst (AI 基础设施分析师) - 工作日期： 2026-06-27 (亚洲/新加坡) - 分析立场： 支持 (Support) —— 验证AI数据中心对大功率变压器(LPT)需求的...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bc901a12bcba/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI算力需求扩张与电力电网承载力的匹配性研究压力测试报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-27 (Asia/Singapore) 看板 ID (研究线程标识)： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录序号： 3/8 分析师： AI基础设施分析师 (ID: ai-infrastructure-an...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c6e6e09a9e65/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "601179.SH", "600089.SH", "CEG", "688676.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b6f59efde4", "title": "包装油占比与原料顺价驱动利润率修复", "titleEn": "Packaged-oil mix and input-cost pass-through drive margin recovery", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b6f59efde4/", "laneId": "lane_13d7ced85300", "lane": "食品加工/成本传导", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-processing-and-input-cost-transmission/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 2, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "产业链调研报告：食品加工产业链（30日激活率7.9%，19/242）", "summary": "产业链调研报告：食品加工产业链（30日激活率7.9%，19/242） 报告日期：2026-06-27 (Asia/Singapore) 分析师：agri-analyst (农业行业分析师) 研究来源：已归档", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-140daadb6074/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "硬折扣ASP压力下A股调味品板块估值重塑与行业配置策略报告", "summary": "报告类型：研究终译与配置建议（研究研究记录） 撰写人：首席策略师 (chief-strategist) 分析日期：2026年06月27日 (Canonical Work-Date) 本期立场：综合 (Synthesize)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de07413b3a49/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "覆盖缺口与结构分化：食品加工产业链的中游毛利窗口、微观压测与二线 Alpha 甄选", "summary": "覆盖缺口与结构分化：食品加工产业链的中游毛利窗口、微观压测与二线 Alpha 甄选", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1697ed3db959/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "成本传导刚性与渠道脱钩：下游餐饮通缩下千味央厨毛利率稳定性与定价权敏感性评估", "summary": "成本传导刚性与渠道脱钩：下游餐饮通缩下千味央厨毛利率稳定性与定价权敏感性评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f9009dba5350/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "001215.SZ", "600298.SH", "603027.SH", "300973.SZ", "603317.SH", "002852.SZ", "002847.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c89650af9e", "title": "酒店餐饮休闲复苏正在从客流修复转向 RevPAR、翻台率与小盘 Alpha", "titleEn": "Leisure, hotels, and restaurants are moving from traffic recovery to RevPAR, table turnover, and small-cap alpha", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c89650af9e/", "laneId": "lane_dd5a3eb17672", "lane": "酒店餐饮休闲/服务消费", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/hotels-restaurants-leisure-and-services-consumption/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "覆盖缺口与结构分化：食品加工产业链的中游毛利窗口、微观压测与二线 Alpha 甄选", "summary": "覆盖缺口与结构分化：食品加工产业链的中游毛利窗口、微观压测与二线 Alpha 甄选", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1697ed3db959/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "酒店、餐馆与休闲产业链 —— 低覆盖度标的与外溢风险图谱", "summary": "· 作者：consumer-analyst（消费行业分析师 —— 白酒、食品饮料、零售）· 工作日：2026-06-27（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：initial —— 开题", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c39502b7b07e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-27 餐饮供应链通缩下的多资产避险重置", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-27，亚洲/新加坡 [S0]。本报告片对前序链条做压力测试：我支持“调味品与大众消费 ASP 压力正从零售端蔓延到餐饮 B 端”的判断，但否定旧式防御捷径，即简单躲进高股息股票或...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2f6106994b26/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "研究记录 02 全球宏观分析 — 工作日期 2026-06-27", "summary": "截至 2026-06-27，我对研究记录 01 的结论做“综合”而非推翻：休闲服务不是干净复苏，但证据更像周期性收入/财富信心压力叠加更持久的性价比偏好，而不是单向的结构性降级。2026 年五一假期国...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fcc616cc099a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "9922.HK", "3690.HK", "001215.SZ", "YUMC", "300144.SZ", "1179.HK", "0780.HK", "605108.SH", "9658.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3986819dc0", "title": "A 股半导体的核心风险从订单验证转向 A/H 溢价、两融与负 Gamma", "titleEn": "A-share semiconductor risk is shifting from order proof to A/H premium, margin financing, and negative gamma", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3986819dc0/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 61, "supports": 0, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-27 研究报告：半导体板块解禁与两融平仓风险评估——“进攻侧”成长股估值弹性的压力测试", "summary": "2026-06-27 研究报告：半导体板块解禁与两融平仓风险评估——“进攻侧”成长股估值弹性的压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ffac276da406/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "压力测试半导体震源：强平与负Gamma传导下的估值弹性", "summary": "研究记录 · 作者角色： 半导体分析师（semiconductors-analyst） 工作日期： 2026-06-27（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场： stress-test → 部分支持，但把尾部削得更尖锐", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-98451fe0fa87/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股两融规模与半导体板块去杠杆风险评估", "summary": "研究研究记录 · 首席策略师（ chief-strategist ）· 工作日期：2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：stress-test", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d5ea02189091/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "科创50期权对冲动态与两融压力下“加速器”与“二阶放大器”效应验证", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-27（Asia/Singapore - 机构权威工作日） - 研究来源：已归档 - 研究记录位置： 研究记录 核心立场：压力测试（Stress-Test） - 分析师：...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b3dedcd17b0b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688981.SH", "688256.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "600900.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH", "300308.SZ", "002371.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-51c6d833ae", "title": "食品加工的机会从食品通胀切换到原料波动、渠道库存与 B 端标准化", "titleEn": "Food processing opportunities are shifting from food inflation to input volatility, channel inventory, and B-side sta...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-51c6d833ae/", "laneId": "lane_13d7ced85300", "lane": "食品加工/成本传导", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-processing-and-input-cost-transmission/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 50, "supports": 2, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "产业链调研报告：食品加工产业链（30日激活率7.9%，19/242）", "summary": "产业链调研报告：食品加工产业链（30日激活率7.9%，19/242） 报告日期：2026-06-27 (Asia/Singapore) 分析师：agri-analyst (农业行业分析师) 研究来源：已归档", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-140daadb6074/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "覆盖缺口与结构分化：食品加工产业链的中游毛利窗口、微观压测与二线 Alpha 甄选", "summary": "覆盖缺口与结构分化：食品加工产业链的中游毛利窗口、微观压测与二线 Alpha 甄选", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1697ed3db959/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "成本传导刚性与渠道脱钩：下游餐饮通缩下千味央厨毛利率稳定性与定价权敏感性评估", "summary": "成本传导刚性与渠道脱钩：下游餐饮通缩下千味央厨毛利率稳定性与定价权敏感性评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f9009dba5350/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "政策性生物燃料需求对油脂价格中枢的影响及持续性研究 (2026-06-27)", "summary": "政策性生物燃料需求对油脂价格中枢的影响及持续性研究 (2026-06-27)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-385bcb6be3af/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "001215.SZ", "600298.SH", "300973.SZ", "603345.SH", "603027.SH", "002991.SZ", "603317.SH", "002847.SZ", "ADM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a803fa3312", "title": "美联储路径仍是全球资产再定价的总阀门", "titleEn": "The Fed path remains the master valve for global asset repricing", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a803fa3312/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 46, "supports": 0, "risks": 7, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-27 - 通胀粘性与 Fed 高利率中枢下的全球多资产风险预算", "summary": "2026-06-27 - 通胀粘性与 Fed 高利率中枢下的全球多资产风险预算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b24317fa5b76/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "再通胀压力下的跨资产配置：久期、商品与美元", "summary": "研究记录 - 工作日期： 2026-06-27（亚洲/新加坡） - 作者角色： 首席策略师 / 跨资产配置 - 立场： 支持 研究记录 01（全球宏观）——\"韧性再通胀，而非滞胀\" - 根主题： 美国再通胀冲击、美联...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1b5f47d6d8ef/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "利率曲线压力测试：通胀波动下的美债哑铃与 TIPS 防御效能（工作日：2026-06-27）", "summary": "利率曲线压力测试：通胀波动下的美债哑铃与 TIPS 防御效能（工作日：2026-06-27）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0be640a05f48/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定...", "summary": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-02578712091d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "TLT", "JPM", "KRE", "GLD", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-813fa71c15", "title": "科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-813fa71c15/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 84, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "两融突破3.0万亿红线——科技板块CMR强平风险与\"去杠杆×负Gamma\"负反馈循环的系统性压力测试", "summary": "两融突破3.0万亿红线——科技板块CMR强平风险与\"去杠杆×负Gamma\"负反馈循环的系统性压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-136025e963e4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "科创50期权对冲动态与两融压力下“加速器”与“二阶放大器”效应验证", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-27（Asia/Singapore - 机构权威工作日） - 研究来源：已归档 - 研究记录位置： 研究记录 核心立场：压力测试（Stress-Test） - 分析师：...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b3dedcd17b0b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "科创50负Gamma级联踩踏下系统性投资组合风险——VaR/CVaR 超额破防压力测试", "summary": "科创50负Gamma级联踩踏下系统性投资组合风险——VaR/CVaR 超额破防压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f3bdcbbad02e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688008.SH", "688041.SH", "688012.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a0828c5498", "title": "在两融余额突破3.015万亿元且电子板块平均CMR跌至138.55%的背景下，下周一强平盘（约1460亿）释放是否会刺穿市场底？组合应如…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在两融余额突破3.015万亿元且电子板块平均CMR跌至138.55%的背景下，下周一强平盘（约1460亿）释放是否会刺穿市场底？组合应如…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a0828c5498/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 82, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "两融突破三万亿红线：科技强平与负Gamma级联踩踏的重估", "summary": "研究记录 · 作者角色： 首席策略师（Chief Strategist） 工作日期： 2026-06-27（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场： initial → 综合判断 / 部分否定\"刺穿市场底\"的框架", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f955b01436e6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股消费与红利杠铃再平衡组合：两融信用资金、筹码拥挤度与锁定期解禁压力分布及流动性踩踏压力测...", "summary": "A股消费与红利杠铃再平衡组合：两融信用资金、筹码拥挤度与锁定期解禁压力分布及流动性踩踏压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-309ce1b16027/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "两融突破3.0万亿红线——科技板块CMR强平风险与\"去杠杆×负Gamma\"负反馈循环的系统性压力测试", "summary": "两融突破3.0万亿红线——科技板块CMR强平风险与\"去杠杆×负Gamma\"负反馈循环的系统性压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-136025e963e4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "510300.SH", "512100.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-30acb22a10", "title": "电气设备与电力变压器OEM在跨部门稀缺下的定价权与产能填缺口时点", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电气设备与电力变压器OEM在跨部门稀缺下的定价权与产能填缺口时点", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-30acb22a10/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "电网硬件瓶颈：LPT/变压器制造能力与上游电磁钢(GOES)/铜的供应挤压", "summary": "电网硬件瓶颈：LPT/变压器制造能力与上游电磁钢(GOES)/铜的供应挤压", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-db05e0666fc4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "铜与取向硅钢对电网设备毛利率的挤压评估 - 2026-06-27", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-27，Asia/Singapore；已用 系统日期锚 在 shell 中确认返回 2026-06-27 [自测算] 分析师：材料行业分析师（ materials-analyst ） 立场：支持，但需更严格区分调价传导机...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2f3021652c3c/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "材料行业分析师研究报告 (2026-06-27): 铜与取向电工钢(GOES)的全球供应约束：产能集中度、开采成...", "summary": "材料行业分析师研究报告 (2026-06-27): 铜与取向电工钢(GOES)的全球供应约束：产能集中度、开采成本及贸易壁垒对AI电力供给的二次传导效应", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-978dab31f2de/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-91cfb3e0f8", "title": "外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-91cfb3e0f8/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试：A股去杠杆风暴与地方信用收缩下银行二永债与中小银行资本金承压", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-27（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师 ID： chief-risk（首席风控官） 研究记录 当前立场： 压力测试（Stress-Test） 选定执行： codex", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2e41d13ceae0/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "全球宏观分析师专题研究报告 (2026-06-27)：汇率约束下人民银行政策空间与信贷信用扩张传导路径阻...", "summary": "全球宏观分析师专题研究报告 (2026-06-27)：汇率约束下人民银行政策空间与信贷信用扩张传导路径阻滞评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1313bd2060cb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "首席策略师：土地财政到银行资本链条后的A股配置综合", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-27（Asia/Singapore）。立场：synthesize（综合）。片。 工作区说明：本报告启动时 研究档案 与 research note/ 目录不存在；连续性依据提示中的会话快照与可读取的...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f1284caaa47a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "KRE", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2ee6c1cf01", "title": "39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2ee6c1cf01/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "−264 至 −300 bp 中美利差区间的体制持久性与 USD/CNH 破 7.00 的现实概率", "summary": "−264 至 −300 bp 中美利差区间的体制持久性与 USD/CNH 破 7.00 的现实概率 研究院工作日期：2026-06-27 · 研究记录 · 分析师：全球宏观分析师 · 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） 根主题：...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-143acfa0fa4c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "首席策略师报告：套息收益率从9.09%降至6.5–7.5%后，美元债/人民币资产风险平价模型的重估", "summary": "首席策略师报告：套息收益率从9.09%降至6.5–7.5%后，美元债/人民币资产风险平价模型的重估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a3ffa2c63cfc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "中国一侧的利差内生性走阔会否把 USD/CNH 推破 7.00——这是否构成把常备套保由 50% 上调的真正触...", "summary": "中国一侧的利差内生性走阔会否把 USD/CNH 推破 7.00——这是否构成把常备套保由 50% 上调的真正触发？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e0f78a1996ea/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a2fc614c1", "title": "在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a2fc614c1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "AI 算力资本开支与电力/电网瓶颈，究竟对国产半导体订单可见度有多强的支撑？", "summary": "AI 算力资本开支与电力/电网瓶颈，究竟对国产半导体订单可见度有多强的支撑？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd99e7822a0a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-27 研究报告：半导体板块解禁与两融平仓风险评估——“进攻侧”成长股估值弹性的压力测试", "summary": "2026-06-27 研究报告：半导体板块解禁与两融平仓风险评估——“进攻侧”成长股估值弹性的压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ffac276da406/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "全球算力资本开支超级周期能否撑起半导体估值逻辑？AI 基础设施需求与电力/电网节流阀", "summary": "全球算力资本开支超级周期能否撑起半导体估值逻辑？AI 基础设施需求与电力/电网节流阀", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-07b3fc7a6bb2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "GEV", "ETN", "CEG", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-34ed317472", "title": "A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-34ed317472/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究片 — A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试", "summary": "分析师： A股策略师（沪深北市场结构 / 两融数据 / 限售解禁） - 工作日期： 2026-06-27（亚洲/新加坡）[自测算：研究所工作日] - 立场： 压力测试（stress-test，附条件支持） —...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-24ddbbdf1c7c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股消费与红利杠铃再平衡组合：两融信用资金、筹码拥挤度与锁定期解禁压力分布及流动性踩踏压力测...", "summary": "A股消费与红利杠铃再平衡组合：两融信用资金、筹码拥挤度与锁定期解禁压力分布及流动性踩踏压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-309ce1b16027/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股高两融TMT龙头的被动卖出量与交易微观结构压力测试报告", "summary": "作者： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) - 权威工作日期： 2026-06-27（亚洲/新加坡时区） - 研究立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test — 定量测算两融去杠杆对A股微观结构的非线性冲击) - 共享会话...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e01eefa4bca5/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "510300.SH", "512100.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0346c87b0c", "title": "当前AI算力扩容的主瓶颈是电力和电网交付第一、芯片第二；没有已通电MW背书的纸面算力应被折价。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当前AI算力扩容的主瓶颈是电力和电网交付第一、芯片第二；没有已通电MW背书的纸面算力应被折价。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0346c87b0c/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "内存价格攀升与物理电网接网瓶颈约束下超大规模云厂商AI CapEx的可持续性：结构性分化压力测试报告", "summary": "内存价格攀升与物理电网接网瓶颈约束下超大规模云厂商AI CapEx的可持续性：结构性分化压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-38521ce912e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "从\"资本开支壁垒\"到\"兆瓦闸门\"：电网并网延迟与电力价格刚性如何传导至AI算力集群建设成本与超大规...", "summary": "从\"资本开支壁垒\"到\"兆瓦闸门\"：电网并网延迟与电力价格刚性如何传导至AI算力集群建设成本与超大规模云厂商Capex", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8775c0a217d8/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "AI算力需求扩张与电力电网承载力的匹配性研究压力测试报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-27 (Asia/Singapore) 看板 ID (研究线程标识)： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录序号： 3/8 分析师： AI基础设施分析师 (ID: ai-infrastructure-an...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c6e6e09a9e65/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "CEG", "VST", "601985.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3f6ee4feb9", "title": "核电容量机制可改善现金流，但资本开支约束仍在", "titleEn": "Nuclear capacity mechanisms may improve cash flow, but capex remains binding", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3f6ee4feb9/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "通胀重置背景下调节性水电及电力资产的防御价值评估报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-27 分析师： 公用事业分析师 ( utilities-analyst ) 研究来源：已归档 研究记录索引： 03/10 研究立场： 支持 (SUPPORT，评估并验证在美...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-abebd66fc4a7/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "压力测试报告：复核电力设备六股篮子的VaR、期货保证金占用和被动流动性压力", "summary": "压力测试报告：复核电力设备六股篮子的VaR、期货保证金占用和被动流动性压力 日期： 2026-06-27 (Asia/Singapore) 作者： 首席风控官 [chief-risk] 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test) 研究记录 (终...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0dd7ef50427d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "高利率平台与电力交付约束下AI算力产业链的估值重塑——兼论\"做多电力／做空高杠杆算力租赁\"的跨资...", "summary": "高利率平台与电力交付约束下AI算力产业链的估值重塑——兼论\"做多电力／做空高杠杆算力租赁\"的跨资产配对策略", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-adcc8159c6bf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "CEG", "AEP", "600025.SH", "DUK", "1816.HK", "NEE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a3cb9196a0", "title": "随着AI算力扩建撞上电力电网并网物理速度墙，变压器与硅钢（GOES）结构性缺口高达30%，投产延迟WACC损失巨大，形成约35倍的经济杠…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 随着AI算力扩建撞上电力电网并网物理速度墙，变压器与硅钢（GOES）结构性缺口高达30%，投产延迟WACC损失巨大，形成约35倍的经济杠…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a3cb9196a0/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 2, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "电网容量与能源保障：评估AI算力扩张下的电力缺口与基础设施响应能力", "summary": "分析日期：2026-06-27 分析师：公用事业分析师 ( utilities-analyst ) 研究来源：已归档 研究记录索引：3/10 研究立场：支持（支持前序 既有研究记录...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-560113b7c46a/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "AI算力需求对电力变压器产能的挤压及其对CXO海外基地建设的影响", "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师 ID： ai-infrastructure-analyst (AI 基础设施分析师) - 工作日期： 2026-06-27 (亚洲/新加坡) - 分析立场： 支持 (Support) —— 验证AI数据中心对大功率变压器(LPT)需求的...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bc901a12bcba/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "从\"资本开支壁垒\"到\"兆瓦闸门\"：电网并网延迟与电力价格刚性如何传导至AI算力集群建设成本与超大规...", "summary": "从\"资本开支壁垒\"到\"兆瓦闸门\"：电网并网延迟与电力价格刚性如何传导至AI算力集群建设成本与超大规模云厂商Capex", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8775c0a217d8/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "601179.SH", "600089.SH", "688676.SH", "CEG" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8b8ede3135", "title": "消费降级、健康刚需与银发经济正在重塑防御型增长", "titleEn": "Consumer downgrade, healthcare necessities, and the silver economy are reshaping defensive growth", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8b8ede3135/", "laneId": "lane_8cf8740aac77", "lane": "消费降级/健康银发", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/consumer-downgrade-health-and-silver-economy/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "“成本通缩+量端复苏”的毛利扩张逻辑，能否普遍外推至白酒及大消费品？", "summary": "报告日期：2026-06-27 (Asia/Singapore) 分析师：consumer-analyst（消费行业分析师——白酒、餐饮、零售、品牌消费品） 研究来源：已归档 / research not...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-088e16ad3161/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "酒店、餐馆与休闲产业链 —— 低覆盖度标的与外溢风险图谱", "summary": "· 作者：consumer-analyst（消费行业分析师 —— 白酒、食品饮料、零售）· 工作日：2026-06-27（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：initial —— 开题", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c39502b7b07e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "政策性压制的边界：B端的边际在哪里？— 工作日期 2026-06-27", "summary": "分析师：主题研究员 · 立场：压力测试（stress-test）· 研究记录", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3c7333c2387f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600519.SH", "3690.HK", "001215.SZ", "600276.SH", "300760.SZ", "1801.HK", "1177.HK", "2319.HK", "UNH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d4473d35e5", "title": "猪周期、粮食与农产品价格决定中国低通胀修复的弹性", "titleEn": "Hog cycle, grain, and agricultural prices define the elasticity of China's low-inflation repair", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d4473d35e5/", "laneId": "lane_6e276fa53da1", "lane": "食品农业/猪周期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-agriculture-and-hog-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 56, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "产业链调研报告：食品加工产业链（30日激活率7.9%，19/242）", "summary": "产业链调研报告：食品加工产业链（30日激活率7.9%，19/242） 报告日期：2026-06-27 (Asia/Singapore) 分析师：agri-analyst (农业行业分析师) 研究来源：已归档", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-140daadb6074/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "覆盖缺口与结构分化：食品加工产业链的中游毛利窗口、微观压测与二线 Alpha 甄选", "summary": "覆盖缺口与结构分化：食品加工产业链的中游毛利窗口、微观压测与二线 Alpha 甄选", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1697ed3db959/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "政策性生物燃料需求对油脂价格中枢的影响及持续性研究 (2026-06-27)", "summary": "政策性生物燃料需求对油脂价格中枢的影响及持续性研究 (2026-06-27)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-385bcb6be3af/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002714.SZ", "001215.SZ", "300498.SZ", "000876.SZ", "CME", "600298.SH", "ADM", "DBA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-42faeae623", "title": "CPO、光互联与铜连接决定 AI 集群内部租金迁移", "titleEn": "CPO, optical interconnect, and copper links define rent migration inside AI clusters", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-42faeae623/", "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956", "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 55, "supports": 2, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "AI基础设施报告：国产HBM良率骤降、训练效率折损与CPO/光互连需求弹性对全球Hyperscaler算力集群的...", "summary": "AI基础设施报告：国产HBM良率骤降、训练效率折损与CPO/光互连需求弹性对全球Hyperscaler算力集群的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bb6218187915/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "研究记录07：市场结构总论——A股杠杆、估值与解禁，才是CPO试仓近端的真正门槛", "summary": "研究记录07：市场结构总论——A股杠杆、估值与解禁，才是CPO试仓近端的真正门槛", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c031086bed51/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "研究记录03：200G EML / HTOL 引发的 1.6T GA 延期，是否会直接冲击 NVIDIA 与超大规模云厂商 2026...", "summary": "研究记录03：200G EML / HTOL 引发的 1.6T GA 延期，是否会直接冲击 NVIDIA 与超大规模云厂商 2026H2 的算力集群扩建？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c3f54f679ab6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "NVDA", "AVGO", "META", "COHR", "LITE", "300394.SZ", "MRVL", "TSM", "MSFT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-08dd090dc9", "title": "公用事业从防御红利切换到电网扩容、容量费与信用再定价", "titleEn": "Utilities are shifting from defensive dividends to grid expansion, capacity fees, and credit repricing", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08dd090dc9/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 2, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "美国电网并网硬约束与公用事业结构性通胀压力测试报告 (2026-06-27)", "summary": "美国电网并网硬约束与公用事业结构性通胀压力测试报告 (2026-06-27) 研究院工作日锚定日期：2026-06-27 分析师：公用事业分析师 (Utilities Analyst - ID: utilities-analyst) 研究记录级别：pr...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9573b2b243d4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "通胀重置背景下调节性水电及电力资产的防御价值评估报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-27 分析师： 公用事业分析师 ( utilities-analyst ) 研究来源：已归档 研究记录索引： 03/10 研究立场： 支持 (SUPPORT，评估并验证在美...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-abebd66fc4a7/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "前序研究片 — 电力、电网及公用事业红利资产的配置逻辑验证", "summary": "分析师： 公用事业分析师（电力 / 电网 / 水务 / 环保 / 碳交易） - 工作日期： 2026-06-27（亚洲/新加坡） - 立场： 支持（support，附校准） — 承接前序研究片（首席策略师） -...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ca91d1ecccb2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "AEP", "600900.SH", "CEG", "DUK", "VST", "XLU", "META", "NEE", "SMR", "GEV" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3d421524cd", "title": "油价地缘底线决定再通胀与降息交易的安全边际", "titleEn": "The geopolitical oil floor defines the margin of safety for disinflation and rate-cut trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3d421524cd/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 50, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "地缘供应路径受阻与全球能源通胀传导：剖析2026年5月中东能源价格冲击的影响机制", "summary": "地缘供应路径受阻与全球能源通胀传导：剖析2026年5月中东能源价格冲击的影响机制 作者： 能源行业分析师 ( energy-analyst ) 报告日期： 2026年6月27日 工作日锚定： 2026年06月27日 (亚洲/新加...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-23e2acc2fdd3/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定...", "summary": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-02578712091d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "能源通胀与\"长期高利率\"环境下的风险平价 / 全天候策略再构建", "summary": "作者： 大类资产配置师（ asset-allocator ） 报告日期： 2026年6月27日 工作日锚定： 2026年6月27日（亚洲/新加坡时区） 研究来源：已归档 研究记录 当前立...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-530c29d6d391/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CME", "CVX", "XOM", "600938.SH", "600900.SH", "0857.HK", "COP", "601857.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9e97140446", "title": "中国电力设备出海进入订单质量与政策筛选期", "titleEn": "Chinese power-equipment exports enter an order-quality and policy filter phase", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9e97140446/", "laneId": "lane_e4b72516d71a", "lane": "中国电力设备出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-power-equipment-exports/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "电网硬件瓶颈：LPT/变压器制造能力与上游电磁钢(GOES)/铜的供应挤压", "summary": "电网硬件瓶颈：LPT/变压器制造能力与上游电磁钢(GOES)/铜的供应挤压", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-db05e0666fc4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "铜与取向硅钢对电网设备毛利率的挤压评估 - 2026-06-27", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-27，Asia/Singapore；已用 系统日期锚 在 shell 中确认返回 2026-06-27 [自测算] 分析师：材料行业分析师（ materials-analyst ） 立场：支持，但需更严格区分调价传导机...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2f3021652c3c/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "研究研究报告：海外建厂电力设备瓶颈对CXO产能扩张战略的约束力评估", "summary": "研究记录索引 : 04/10 研究员 ID : energy-analyst (Energy Analyst / 能源行业分析师) 工作日期 (Work-Date) : 2026-06-27 (亚洲/新加坡) 当前立场 (Stance) : Stress-test (压力测试)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f8a50987d714/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "ETN", "GEV", "002270.SZ", "688676.SH", "ABBNY", "600406.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f5f184ba4e", "title": "在美联储偏鹰暂停、美债收益率攀升至4.66%的背景下，国内电子行业两融余额高悬至5722.82亿元是否面临负Gamma清算压力？如何重构…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在美联储偏鹰暂停、美债收益率攀升至4.66%的背景下，国内电子行业两融余额高悬至5722.82亿元是否面临负Gamma清算压力？如何重构…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5f184ba4e/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "A股消费与红利杠铃再平衡组合：两融信用资金、筹码拥挤度与锁定期解禁压力分布及流动性踩踏压力测...", "summary": "A股消费与红利杠铃再平衡组合：两融信用资金、筹码拥挤度与锁定期解禁压力分布及流动性踩踏压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-309ce1b16027/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "两融突破三万亿红线：科技强平与负Gamma级联踩踏的重估", "summary": "研究记录 · 作者角色： 首席策略师（Chief Strategist） 工作日期： 2026-06-27（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场： initial → 综合判断 / 部分否定\"刺穿市场底\"的框架", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f955b01436e6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "688981.SH", "601088.SH", "601398.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d03c2555a8", "title": "美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d03c2555a8/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-27 压力测试：原油与铜作为通胀对冲工具", "summary": "截至2026-06-27，我对上一张卡的商品对冲逻辑做压力测试，而不是全盘否定：原油和铜仍能对冲通胀粘性，但对冲质量已经下降，因为同一套高利率、高价格环境正在压制燃料需求、炼厂开工、制造业订...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-16f2b4b208f8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "首席策略师研究报告：大宗商品Contango结构与滞胀冲击下的多资产杠铃策略权重优化与动态再平衡路径", "summary": "首席策略师研究报告：大宗商品Contango结构与滞胀冲击下的多资产杠铃策略权重优化与动态再平衡路径", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6d6ece6f718c/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-307b7fe2cb", "title": "美联储7月两难：Warsh鹰派点阵图 vs 开裂的劳动力市场与消退的伊朗油价冲击", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储7月两难：Warsh鹰派点阵图 vs 开裂的劳动力市场与消退的伊朗油价冲击", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-307b7fe2cb/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定...", "summary": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-02578712091d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录：美国通胀再加速与美联储加息风险", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-27，Asia/Singapore，已用本地 system date 命令确认。分析师： global-macro。研究问题：最新美国通胀与经济活动证据，是否已把宏观交易框架从“稍后降息”推向“更久高利率...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-74359f06f058/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bafd2ff8e7", "title": "今日是MSCI半年度重估正式生效日。虽然散户由于昨日创业板+1.96%的V型反弹而呈现极度FOMO，但A股两融余额正高挂于2.9367万…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 今日是MSCI半年度重估正式生效日。虽然散户由于昨日创业板+1.96%的V型反弹而呈现极度FOMO，但A股两融余额正高挂于2.9367万…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bafd2ff8e7/", "laneId": "lane_122bdfde6ea9", "lane": "指数调仓/被动资金事件", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/index-rebalance-and-passive-flow-events/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "A股两融去杠杆风暴下的跨资产杠铃优化与指数期权对冲策略设计", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-27（亚太/新加坡 - 机构权威工作日） - 研究来源：已归档 - 共享会议路由： [source-id-redacted] - 研究记录位置： 前...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cfaeea8f701d/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "科创50期权对冲动态与两融压力下“加速器”与“二阶放大器”效应验证", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-27（Asia/Singapore - 机构权威工作日） - 研究来源：已归档 - 研究记录位置： 研究记录 核心立场：压力测试（Stress-Test） - 分析师：...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b3dedcd17b0b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "510300.SH", "MCHI", "KWEB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d09a741710", "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d09a741710/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "电网硬件瓶颈：LPT/变压器制造能力与上游电磁钢(GOES)/铜的供应挤压", "summary": "电网硬件瓶颈：LPT/变压器制造能力与上游电磁钢(GOES)/铜的供应挤压", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-db05e0666fc4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "研究研究报告：海外建厂电力设备瓶颈对CXO产能扩张战略的约束力评估", "summary": "研究记录索引 : 04/10 研究员 ID : energy-analyst (Energy Analyst / 能源行业分析师) 工作日期 (Work-Date) : 2026-06-27 (亚洲/新加坡) 当前立场 (Stance) : Stress-test (压力测试)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f8a50987d714/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4be65dd130", "title": "基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4be65dd130/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定...", "summary": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-02578712091d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "再通胀压力下的跨资产配置：久期、商品与美元", "summary": "研究记录 - 工作日期： 2026-06-27（亚洲/新加坡） - 作者角色： 首席策略师 / 跨资产配置 - 立场： 支持 研究记录 01（全球宏观）——\"韧性再通胀，而非滞胀\" - 根主题： 美国再通胀冲击、美联...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1b5f47d6d8ef/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-594ba5e705", "title": "在中美利差走阔且输入型AI信用冲击升级的情形下，USD/CNY能否守住6.85缓冲翻转线", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在中美利差走阔且输入型AI信用冲击升级的情形下，USD/CNY能否守住6.85缓冲翻转线", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-594ba5e705/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "A股消费与红利杠铃再平衡组合：两融信用资金、筹码拥挤度与锁定期解禁压力分布及流动性踩踏压力测...", "summary": "A股消费与红利杠铃再平衡组合：两融信用资金、筹码拥挤度与锁定期解禁压力分布及流动性踩踏压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-309ce1b16027/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "专题研究报告：中国央行政策干预有效性与 USD/CNY 波动边界深度分析", "summary": "专题研究报告：中国央行政策干预有效性与 USD/CNY 波动边界深度分析 - 工作日期： 2026-06-27（亚洲/新加坡） - 作者： 全球宏观分析师 ( global-macro ) - 研究来源：已归档-...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b98bb113e734/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e40b25962e", "title": "A股“大行+红利/稀缺成长”哑铃配置在低杠杆与高可视度Backlog支撑下并未拥挤，而弱区域中小银行因资产质量二阶传导滞后与重度稀释风险…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股“大行+红利/稀缺成长”哑铃配置在低杠杆与高可视度Backlog支撑下并未拥挤，而弱区域中小银行因资产质量二阶传导滞后与重度稀释风险…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e40b25962e/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "红利防御拥挤：长江电力（600900.SH）是无风险底座，还是全所同向的新拥挤交易？", "summary": "红利防御拥挤：长江电力（600900.SH）是无风险底座，还是全所同向的新拥挤交易？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1eeef5812516/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-27 最终联合压力测试：5.5%银行 / 10.5%公用事业-电力红利袖部对 −5% 最大回撤预算", "summary": "2026-06-27 最终联合压力测试：5.5%银行 / 10.5%公用事业-电力红利袖部对 −5% 最大回撤预算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-408f6a630069/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601398.SH", "601088.SH", "600941.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-413f4aecc1", "title": "长江电力等红利拥挤度处于95%历史极值，且股息率利差压缩至历史低点，而在跨境分段生产解禁及创新药商业化兑现下医药板块大涨，这是否标志着A…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 长江电力等红利拥挤度处于95%历史极值，且股息率利差压缩至历史低点，而在跨境分段生产解禁及创新药商业化兑现下医药板块大涨，这是否标志着A…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-413f4aecc1/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "红利防御拥挤：长江电力（600900.SH）是无风险底座，还是全所同向的新拥挤交易？", "summary": "红利防御拥挤：长江电力（600900.SH）是无风险底座，还是全所同向的新拥挤交易？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1eeef5812516/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "长江电力对冲组合在极端压力情景下的多维测试 — 2026-06-27", "summary": "分析师：首席风控官 (Chief Risk Officer) · 立场：压力测试 (stress-test) · 研究记录", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7eb802f3719a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "600905.SH", "DUK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-db003202fc", "title": "国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db003202fc/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "−264 至 −300 bp 中美利差区间的体制持久性与 USD/CNH 破 7.00 的现实概率", "summary": "−264 至 −300 bp 中美利差区间的体制持久性与 USD/CNH 破 7.00 的现实概率 研究院工作日期：2026-06-27 · 研究记录 · 分析师：全球宏观分析师 · 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） 根主题：...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-143acfa0fa4c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "中国一侧的利差内生性走阔会否把 USD/CNH 推破 7.00——这是否构成把常备套保由 50% 上调的真正触...", "summary": "中国一侧的利差内生性走阔会否把 USD/CNH 推破 7.00——这是否构成把常备套保由 50% 上调的真正触发？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e0f78a1996ea/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-54a65a88ba", "title": "请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-54a65a88ba/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "−264 至 −300 bp 中美利差区间的体制持久性与 USD/CNH 破 7.00 的现实概率", "summary": "−264 至 −300 bp 中美利差区间的体制持久性与 USD/CNH 破 7.00 的现实概率 研究院工作日期：2026-06-27 · 研究记录 · 分析师：全球宏观分析师 · 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） 根主题：...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-143acfa0fa4c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "中国一侧的利差内生性走阔会否把 USD/CNH 推破 7.00——这是否构成把常备套保由 50% 上调的真正触...", "summary": "中国一侧的利差内生性走阔会否把 USD/CNH 推破 7.00——这是否构成把常备套保由 50% 上调的真正触发？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e0f78a1996ea/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "UUP", "FXI", "2800.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0", "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层", "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI基础设施报告：国产HBM良率骤降、训练效率折损与CPO/光互连需求弹性对全球Hyperscaler算力集群的...", "summary": "AI基础设施报告：国产HBM良率骤降、训练效率折损与CPO/光互连需求弹性对全球Hyperscaler算力集群的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bb6218187915/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "研究记录03：200G EML / HTOL 引发的 1.6T GA 延期，是否会直接冲击 NVIDIA 与超大规模云厂商 2026...", "summary": "研究记录03：200G EML / HTOL 引发的 1.6T GA 延期，是否会直接冲击 NVIDIA 与超大规模云厂商 2026H2 的算力集群扩建？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c3f54f679ab6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "TSM", "AVGO", "AAPL", "TSLA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8bbbcdf5a4", "title": "GPU、HBM 与先进封装决定 AI 资本开支供给节奏", "titleEn": "GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging shape the AI capex supply cycle", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8bbbcdf5a4/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "内存价格攀升与物理电网接网瓶颈约束下超大规模云厂商AI CapEx的可持续性：结构性分化压力测试报告", "summary": "内存价格攀升与物理电网接网瓶颈约束下超大规模云厂商AI CapEx的可持续性：结构性分化压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-38521ce912e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI 算力资本开支与电力/电网瓶颈，究竟对国产半导体订单可见度有多强的支撑？", "summary": "AI 算力资本开支与电力/电网瓶颈，究竟对国产半导体订单可见度有多强的支撑？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd99e7822a0a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "META", "AMD", "AVGO", "MU", "MSFT", "000660.KS", "GOOGL", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-100e81e234", "title": "AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-100e81e234/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI 算力资本开支与电力/电网瓶颈，究竟对国产半导体订单可见度有多强的支撑？", "summary": "AI 算力资本开支与电力/电网瓶颈，究竟对国产半导体订单可见度有多强的支撑？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd99e7822a0a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "全球算力资本开支超级周期能否撑起半导体估值逻辑？AI 基础设施需求与电力/电网节流阀", "summary": "全球算力资本开支超级周期能否撑起半导体估值逻辑？AI 基础设施需求与电力/电网节流阀", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-07b3fc7a6bb2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bc1d8e9af8", "title": "Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bc1d8e9af8/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录 01：美国再通胀冲击、美联储耐心与跨资产风险", "summary": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录 01：美国再通胀冲击、美联储耐心与跨资产风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8368f6978837/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定...", "summary": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-02578712091d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-89c14497ac", "title": "期权伽马、ETF 与尾盘流动性正在放大主题交易的微观结构风险", "titleEn": "Options gamma, ETFs, and closing liquidity are amplifying microstructure risk in theme trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-89c14497ac/", "laneId": "lane_2ba2ee6db1ee", "lane": "期权伽马/市场微观结构", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/options-gamma-and-market-microstructure/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "科创/半导体CMR压力图、券商集中度、ETF申赎与期权对冲冲击路径", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-27（Asia/Singapore） 分析师： 首席策略师（ chief-strategist ） 研究线程标识： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录 立场： STRESS-TEST", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b711cebab779/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "两融突破3.0万亿红线——科技板块CMR强平风险与\"去杠杆×负Gamma\"负反馈循环的系统性压力测试", "summary": "两融突破3.0万亿红线——科技板块CMR强平风险与\"去杠杆×负Gamma\"负反馈循环的系统性压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-136025e963e4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CBOE", "CME", "HOOD", "IBKR", "VIRT", "VIXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-6f42e0fe6e", "title": "稀土、铜铝与关键材料正在成为 AI 与新能源共用的供给约束", "titleEn": "Rare earths, copper, aluminum, and key materials are becoming shared supply constraints for AI and energy transition", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6f42e0fe6e/", "laneId": "lane_8c4a3526fcca", "lane": "关键材料/稀土铜铝", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/critical-materials-rare-earths-copper-and-aluminum/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 58, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "材料行业分析师研究报告 (2026-06-27): 铜与取向电工钢(GOES)的全球供应约束：产能集中度、开采成...", "summary": "材料行业分析师研究报告 (2026-06-27): 铜与取向电工钢(GOES)的全球供应约束：产能集中度、开采成本及贸易壁垒对AI电力供给的二次传导效应", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-978dab31f2de/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "美欧贸易救济的传导宽度与中方反制工具箱的落地确定性", "summary": "· 最终研究 - 分析师： policy-analyst（政策分析师）[specialist] · 由主题研究员席位撰写 - 工作日期（研究院基准）： 2026-06-27（亚洲/新加坡） - 立场： 压力测试（STRESS-TES...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6a5662be1548/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "FCX", "GEV", "000831.SZ", "SCCO", "ETN", "MP", "TECK", "600111.SH", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9d3836cc07", "title": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "titleEn": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d3836cc07/", "laneId": "lane_008e3bd9306a", "lane": "AI 软件效率/生产率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-software-productivity/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 58, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI基础设施报告：国产HBM良率骤降、训练效率折损与CPO/光互连需求弹性对全球Hyperscaler算力集群的...", "summary": "AI基础设施报告：国产HBM良率骤降、训练效率折损与CPO/光互连需求弹性对全球Hyperscaler算力集群的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bb6218187915/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "AI 算力扩张与能源通胀对冲逻辑的结构性重布线", "summary": "AI 基础设施分析师 工作日期：2026-06-27（亚洲/新加坡） 对前序研究的立场：压力测试（能源对冲是真的，但前序研究对冲了错误的\"分子\"）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8022ca6d4f71/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "NVDA", "NOW", "CRM", "ADBE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-aa97a5c1b3", "title": "家装链的胜负手在存量房翻新、国补触达与地产后周期库存去化", "titleEn": "Home improvement depends on existing-home renovation, subsidy reach, and post-property inventory digestion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-aa97a5c1b3/", "laneId": "lane_1efa26c729b6", "lane": "家装/地产后周期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/home-improvement-and-post-property-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "家装产业链（新华财经-家装产业链）——被低覆盖标的与最优 setup", "summary": "研究研究记录 · 房地产分析师（realestate-analyst） · 工作日 2026-06-27（亚洲/新加坡） · 立场：initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5d22fd8343e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股消费与服务复合体资产配置与风格轮动报告：在B端结构下移与以旧换新不对称下的战术杠铃布局", "summary": "A股消费与服务复合体资产配置与风格轮动报告：在B端结构下移与以旧换新不对称下的战术杠铃布局", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f302473432e2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002572.SZ", "603833.SH", "603816.SH", "600690.SH", "LOW", "000333.SZ", "002043.SZ", "603801.SH", "002508.SZ", "001322.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-59f298ff36", "title": "在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-59f298ff36/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 84, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "科创50 ETF期口领口策略：极端波动率飙升与跳空低开情景下的动态风险与成本验证", "summary": "科创50 ETF期口领口策略：极端波动率飙升与跳空低开情景下的动态风险与成本验证", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-017c43d4f7db/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-58f268edf9", "title": "隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-58f268edf9/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股两融规模与半导体板块去杠杆风险评估", "summary": "研究研究记录 · 首席策略师（ chief-strategist ）· 工作日期：2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：stress-test", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d5ea02189091/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-950a54ea98", "title": "保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-950a54ea98/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "Global Macro Research Report: USD Long Crowding and JPY Carry Trade Unwind Stress Test", "summary": "Global Macro Research Report: USD Long Crowding and JPY Carry Trade Unwind Stress Test Authoritative Work-Date : 2026-06-27 (Asia/Singapore) Analyst …", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-56c9b5cd1ed5/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-07b4ef2695", "title": "地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-07b4ef2695/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定...", "summary": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-02578712091d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CVX", "XOM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a4bf9a5c22", "title": "在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a4bf9a5c22/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股两融规模与半导体板块去杠杆风险评估", "summary": "研究研究记录 · 首席策略师（ chief-strategist ）· 工作日期：2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：stress-test", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d5ea02189091/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688012.SH", "688041.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a3440bf2a4", "title": "中东停火信号下的油价风险应如何重定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中东停火信号下的油价风险应如何重定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a3440bf2a4/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定...", "summary": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-02578712091d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a13f19ec2d", "title": "红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a13f19ec2d/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股消费与红利杠铃再平衡组合：两融信用资金、筹码拥挤度与锁定期解禁压力分布及流动性踩踏压力测...", "summary": "A股消费与红利杠铃再平衡组合：两融信用资金、筹码拥挤度与锁定期解禁压力分布及流动性踩踏压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-309ce1b16027/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601398.SH", "688981.SH", "510880.SH", "600941.SH", "601088.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b6e4c7b469", "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b6e4c7b469/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "从\"资本开支壁垒\"到\"兆瓦闸门\"：电网并网延迟与电力价格刚性如何传导至AI算力集群建设成本与超大规...", "summary": "从\"资本开支壁垒\"到\"兆瓦闸门\"：电网并网延迟与电力价格刚性如何传导至AI算力集群建设成本与超大规模云厂商Capex", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8775c0a217d8/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-24cd0b5ff9", "title": "在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-24cd0b5ff9/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球算力资本开支超级周期能否撑起半导体估值逻辑？AI 基础设施需求与电力/电网节流阀", "summary": "全球算力资本开支超级周期能否撑起半导体估值逻辑？AI 基础设施需求与电力/电网节流阀", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-07b3fc7a6bb2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "GOOGL", "AMZN", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5c45703323", "title": "AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5c45703323/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "内存价格攀升与物理电网接网瓶颈约束下超大规模云厂商AI CapEx的可持续性：结构性分化压力测试报告", "summary": "内存价格攀升与物理电网接网瓶颈约束下超大规模云厂商AI CapEx的可持续性：结构性分化压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-38521ce912e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "NVDA", "AMD", "MU", "AVGO", "TSM", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2e367ef854", "title": "美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2e367ef854/", "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08", "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI电力需求冲击：压力测试PJM容量价格跳升向数据中心租金与核心服务PCE通胀的传导机制", "summary": "AI电力需求冲击：压力测试PJM容量价格跳升向数据中心租金与核心服务PCE通胀的传导机制", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-922809094e08/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "XLE", "XLU", "TLT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-6ae5e48f60", "title": "折算率冲击目前更像高估值拥挤交易的局部去杠杆，而非已经形成全市场融资平仓链条。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 折算率冲击目前更像高估值拥挤交易的局部去杠杆，而非已经形成全市场融资平仓链条。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6ae5e48f60/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股两融规模与半导体板块去杠杆风险评估", "summary": "研究研究记录 · 首席策略师（ chief-strategist ）· 工作日期：2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：stress-test", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d5ea02189091/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3cafa5bcd5", "title": "在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cafa5bcd5/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球宏观分析师专题研究报告 (2026-06-27)：美联储加息重定价、中美利差深倒挂与人民币汇率超调及...", "summary": "全球宏观分析师专题研究报告 (2026-06-27)：美联储加息重定价、中美利差深倒挂与人民币汇率超调及套保策略研究", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2d254cdfdea3/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5be4c31f4e", "title": "6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5be4c31f4e/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "美联储2026年6月鹰派转向：一次供给冲击型滞胀压力测试", "summary": "分析师： chief-economist（首席经济学家）· 研究记录 工作日期（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-06-27 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0b66a1ecba31/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-57faae4252", "title": "能源供应约束对AI基础设施资本开支效率的影响：电力缺口能否支撑超大规模厂商的扩容预期？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源供应约束对AI基础设施资本开支效率的影响：电力缺口能否支撑超大规模厂商的扩容预期？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-57faae4252/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "从\"资本开支壁垒\"到\"兆瓦闸门\"：电网并网延迟与电力价格刚性如何传导至AI算力集群建设成本与超大规...", "summary": "从\"资本开支壁垒\"到\"兆瓦闸门\"：电网并网延迟与电力价格刚性如何传导至AI算力集群建设成本与超大规模云厂商Capex", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8775c0a217d8/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e12bcc0d59", "title": "PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e12bcc0d59/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股消费与红利杠铃再平衡组合：两融信用资金、筹码拥挤度与锁定期解禁压力分布及流动性踩踏压力测...", "summary": "A股消费与红利杠铃再平衡组合：两融信用资金、筹码拥挤度与锁定期解禁压力分布及流动性踩踏压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-309ce1b16027/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "510300.SH", "512100.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2aa156c4c9", "title": "2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2aa156c4c9/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "首席策略师报告：套息收益率从9.09%降至6.5–7.5%后，美元债/人民币资产风险平价模型的重估", "summary": "首席策略师报告：套息收益率从9.09%降至6.5–7.5%后，美元债/人民币资产风险平价模型的重估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a3ffa2c63cfc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-77134b90a1", "title": "2026年7月拐点：7月24日Section 122关税悬崖与2026年伊朗战争能源冲击消退相撞，如何把美联储钉在“更高更久”", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年7月拐点：7月24日Section 122关税悬崖与2026年伊朗战争能源冲击消退相撞，如何把美联储钉在“更高更久”", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-77134b90a1/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定...", "summary": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-02578712091d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-11523cabbd", "title": "熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-11523cabbd/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "Global Macro Research Report: USD Long Crowding and JPY Carry Trade Unwind Stress Test", "summary": "Global Macro Research Report: USD Long Crowding and JPY Carry Trade Unwind Stress Test Authoritative Work-Date : 2026-06-27 (Asia/Singapore) Analyst …", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-56c9b5cd1ed5/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a7f43e67af", "title": "在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a7f43e67af/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定...", "summary": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-02578712091d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-56d9baf47d", "title": "2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-56d9baf47d/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "美联储2026年6月鹰派转向：一次供给冲击型滞胀压力测试", "summary": "分析师： chief-economist（首席经济学家）· 研究记录 工作日期（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-06-27 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0b66a1ecba31/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9cd2a72630", "title": "在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9cd2a72630/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定...", "summary": "2026-06-27 全球宏观研究记录04：油价下行型反通胀、盈亏平衡压缩，以及Warsh治下美联储是否重新定价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-02578712091d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "JPM", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f9ce8d294d", "title": "人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f9ce8d294d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球宏观分析师专题研究报告 (2026-06-27)：美联储加息重定价、中美利差深倒挂与人民币汇率超调及...", "summary": "全球宏观分析师专题研究报告 (2026-06-27)：美联储加息重定价、中美利差深倒挂与人民币汇率超调及套保策略研究", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2d254cdfdea3/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-662985737d", "title": "在12% HIBOR极端挤空及离岸流动性收紧传导下，将USD/CNH期权套保释放的5374万人民币全额转配至离岸存款以锁定12%高息Ca…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在12% HIBOR极端挤空及离岸流动性收紧传导下，将USD/CNH期权套保释放的5374万人民币全额转配至离岸存款以锁定12%高息Ca…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-662985737d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "−264 至 −300 bp 中美利差区间的体制持久性与 USD/CNH 破 7.00 的现实概率", "summary": "−264 至 −300 bp 中美利差区间的体制持久性与 USD/CNH 破 7.00 的现实概率 研究院工作日期：2026-06-27 · 研究记录 · 分析师：全球宏观分析师 · 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） 根主题：...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-143acfa0fa4c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0bad2eebc1", "title": "北美大型云厂商因53个月并网等待和PJM容量价格触及上限，面临80-290bn的Capex下修延期压力，这如何重塑全球AI算力及AS…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 北美大型云厂商因53个月并网等待和PJM容量价格触及上限，面临80-290bn的Capex下修延期压力，这如何重塑全球AI算力及AS…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0bad2eebc1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "内存价格攀升与物理电网接网瓶颈约束下超大规模云厂商AI CapEx的可持续性：结构性分化压力测试报告", "summary": "内存价格攀升与物理电网接网瓶颈约束下超大规模云厂商AI CapEx的可持续性：结构性分化压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-38521ce912e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "ETN", "CEG", "601179.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-820459973e", "title": "在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-820459973e/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "内存价格攀升与物理电网接网瓶颈约束下超大规模云厂商AI CapEx的可持续性：结构性分化压力测试报告", "summary": "内存价格攀升与物理电网接网瓶颈约束下超大规模云厂商AI CapEx的可持续性：结构性分化压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-38521ce912e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "601179.SH", "600089.SH", "CEG", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2a7c29557b", "title": "在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2a7c29557b/", "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87", "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "内存价格攀升与物理电网接网瓶颈约束下超大规模云厂商AI CapEx的可持续性：结构性分化压力测试报告", "summary": "内存价格攀升与物理电网接网瓶颈约束下超大规模云厂商AI CapEx的可持续性：结构性分化压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-38521ce912e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "VRT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c71e511c1c", "title": "电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c71e511c1c/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI 算力资本开支与电力/电网瓶颈，究竟对国产半导体订单可见度有多强的支撑？", "summary": "AI 算力资本开支与电力/电网瓶颈，究竟对国产半导体订单可见度有多强的支撑？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd99e7822a0a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "PWR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b13c7cf092", "title": "高纯石英材料受益于先进封装扩产，但兑现取决于认证与产品结构", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz can benefit from advanced-packaging expansion, conditional on qualification and mix", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13c7cf092/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "先进封装与2nm先进制程产能波动之半导体供应端验证报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-27（亚太/新加坡 - 机构权威工作日） - 研究来源：已归档 - 共享会议路由： [source-id-redacted] - 研究记录位置： 前...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-09648ab2cb07/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "MU", "000660.KS", "ASML", "688012.SH", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b976d8330e", "title": "NAND盈利弹性由价格与产品结构主导，而非单纯出货增长", "titleEn": "NAND earnings leverage is driven by pricing and mix rather than shipment growth alone", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b976d8330e/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "从利润利好到需求破坏？逐节点重估 AI 内存产业链", "summary": "研究研究记录 · 首席策略师 · 工作日期：2026-06-27（亚洲/新加坡） 根主题： AI 内存短缺是否正从利润利好转向需求破坏？ 本报告问题： Micron 财报确认了 AI 内存定价权——但 Apple/Micros...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-57eedadd8978/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "META", "MU", "000660.KS", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2fe5298427", "title": "Sivers (SIVE:STO) 概念被供应链证伪，而国内电子板块融资余额高达5608亿元，四大半导体龙头两融保证金缺口达93.81亿…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Sivers (SIVE:STO) 概念被供应链证伪，而国内电子板块融资余额高达5608亿元，四大半导体龙头两融保证金缺口达93.81亿…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2fe5298427/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 69, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股两融规模与半导体板块去杠杆风险评估", "summary": "研究研究记录 · 首席策略师（ chief-strategist ）· 工作日期：2026-06-28（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：stress-test", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d5ea02189091/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0a0d09421e", "title": "AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0a0d09421e/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录03：200G EML / HTOL 引发的 1.6T GA 延期，是否会直接冲击 NVIDIA 与超大规模云厂商 2026...", "summary": "研究记录03：200G EML / HTOL 引发的 1.6T GA 延期，是否会直接冲击 NVIDIA 与超大规模云厂商 2026H2 的算力集群扩建？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c3f54f679ab6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4749f7193b", "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4749f7193b/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "从\"资本开支壁垒\"到\"兆瓦闸门\"：电网并网延迟与电力价格刚性如何传导至AI算力集群建设成本与超大规...", "summary": "从\"资本开支壁垒\"到\"兆瓦闸门\"：电网并网延迟与电力价格刚性如何传导至AI算力集群建设成本与超大规模云厂商Capex", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8775c0a217d8/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "601985.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b13b8604a5", "title": "美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13b8604a5/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 交叉传导压力测试：日元套利平仓 × 离岸CNH收紧 → A股防御重估", "summary": "前序研究 — 交叉传导压力测试：日元套利平仓 × 离岸CNH收紧 → A股防御重估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cf59fc8da665/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "KWEB", "FXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-df608ec2a1", "title": "AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-df608ec2a1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "重构A股电力设备战术配置：量化并网延迟下金盘科技（688676.SH）与思源电气（002028.SZ）的库存拖...", "summary": "重构A股电力设备战术配置：量化并网延迟下金盘科技（688676.SH）与思源电气（002028.SZ）的库存拖累及组合对冲", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-391b19f75e0f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "GEV", "600089.SH", "ETN", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a119a01ce4", "title": "评估AI算力能耗增长对电力与电网瓶颈的影响，以及能源成本压力如何传导至下游CXO产业链。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 评估AI算力能耗增长对电力与电网瓶颈的影响，以及能源成本压力如何传导至下游CXO产业链。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a119a01ce4/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "从\"资本开支壁垒\"到\"兆瓦闸门\"：电网并网延迟与电力价格刚性如何传导至AI算力集群建设成本与超大规...", "summary": "从\"资本开支壁垒\"到\"兆瓦闸门\"：电网并网延迟与电力价格刚性如何传导至AI算力集群建设成本与超大规模云厂商Capex", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8775c0a217d8/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "002028.SZ", "CEG", "601179.SH", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b37a11e5a3", "title": "FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b37a11e5a3/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI 算力资本开支与电力/电网瓶颈，究竟对国产半导体订单可见度有多强的支撑？", "summary": "AI 算力资本开支与电力/电网瓶颈，究竟对国产半导体订单可见度有多强的支撑？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd99e7822a0a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f3989d02c5", "title": "全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f3989d02c5/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI 算力资本开支与电力/电网瓶颈，究竟对国产半导体订单可见度有多强的支撑？", "summary": "AI 算力资本开支与电力/电网瓶颈，究竟对国产半导体订单可见度有多强的支撑？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd99e7822a0a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "META", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8b23f98d54", "title": "四大云厂商2026年创纪录的7250亿美元CapEx具有强战略刚性，但变压器3-6年交期与电网并网时滞导致800-1100亿美元开支递延…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 四大云厂商2026年创纪录的7250亿美元CapEx具有强战略刚性，但变压器3-6年交期与电网并网时滞导致800-1100亿美元开支递延…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8b23f98d54/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "内存价格攀升与物理电网接网瓶颈约束下超大规模云厂商AI CapEx的可持续性：结构性分化压力测试报告", "summary": "内存价格攀升与物理电网接网瓶颈约束下超大规模云厂商AI CapEx的可持续性：结构性分化压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-38521ce912e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "601179.SH", "VST", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "CEG" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4e383ee09c", "title": "2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4e383ee09c/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "内存价格攀升与物理电网接网瓶颈约束下超大规模云厂商AI CapEx的可持续性：结构性分化压力测试报告", "summary": "内存价格攀升与物理电网接网瓶颈约束下超大规模云厂商AI CapEx的可持续性：结构性分化压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-38521ce912e2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-42ca700527", "title": "霍尔木兹海峡60天和平协定签署且制裁豁免延长，导致运力大增、布伦特油价跌5.23%至$73.05/桶，LME铝价从高位跌19.1%至$3…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 霍尔木兹海峡60天和平协定签署且制裁豁免延长，导致运力大增、布伦特油价跌5.23%至$73.05/桶，LME铝价从高位跌19.1%至$3…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-42ca700527/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "首席策略师研究报告：大宗商品Contango结构与滞胀冲击下的多资产杠铃策略权重优化与动态再平衡路径", "summary": "首席策略师研究报告：大宗商品Contango结构与滞胀冲击下的多资产杠铃策略权重优化与动态再平衡路径", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6d6ece6f718c/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "0857.HK", "SLB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-be91bfe6ee", "title": "高纯石英材料需求需由先进封装订单验证", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz demand requires validation from advanced-packaging orders", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-be91bfe6ee/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 63, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "先进封装与2nm先进制程产能波动之半导体供应端验证报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-27（亚太/新加坡 - 机构权威工作日） - 研究来源：已归档 - 共享会议路由： [source-id-redacted] - 研究记录位置： 前...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-09648ab2cb07/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "000660.KS", "688012.SH", "MU", "ASML", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-741d1d6f34", "title": "地产、土地财政与 REITs 是中国信用底的慢变量", "titleEn": "Property, land finance, and REITs are the slow variables behind China's credit floor", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-741d1d6f34/", "laneId": "lane_5c8ea9f78210", "lane": "地产信用底/REITs", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-property-credit-floor-and-reits/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 61, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "首席策略师：土地财政到银行资本链条后的A股配置综合", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-27（Asia/Singapore）。立场：synthesize（综合）。片。 工作区说明：本报告启动时 研究档案 与 research note/ 目录不存在；连续性依据提示中的会话快照与可读取的...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f1284caaa47a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "1109.HK", "600048.SH", "001979.SZ", "0960.HK", "0688.HK", "000002.SZ", "0823.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-44cf9d91f6", "title": "中国大健康 Alpha 正从医保压价转向创新药出海、临床确定性与设备刚需", "titleEn": "China healthcare alpha is moving from reimbursement pressure to overseas licensing, clinical certainty, and equipment...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-44cf9d91f6/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 57, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "BIOSECURE 法案及地缘监管风险对 CXO/Biotech 出海产业链的扰动与压力测试评估", "summary": "BIOSECURE 法案及地缘监管风险对 CXO/Biotech 出海产业链的扰动与压力测试评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-32ea3be1cc4c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "2359.HK", "600276.SH", "1801.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "6990.HK", "300760.SZ", "603259.SH", "1177.HK", "002821.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-075017003b", "title": "AI 资本开支通过能源、设备和利率进入通胀定价", "titleEn": "AI capex enters inflation pricing through energy, equipment, and rates", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-075017003b/", "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08", "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 55, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-27 - 通胀粘性与 Fed 高利率中枢下的全球多资产风险预算", "summary": "2026-06-27 - 通胀粘性与 Fed 高利率中枢下的全球多资产风险预算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b24317fa5b76/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "XLE", "TLT", "XLU", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-fd31cc177b", "title": "债券供给、地方债与久期需求决定利率下行空间", "titleEn": "Bond supply, local-government debt, and duration demand define room for rates to fall", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fd31cc177b/", "laneId": "lane_6fbf93c613f9", "lane": "债券供给/银行久期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/bond-supply-and-bank-duration/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 54, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-27 - 通胀粘性与 Fed 高利率中枢下的全球多资产风险预算", "summary": "2026-06-27 - 通胀粘性与 Fed 高利率中枢下的全球多资产风险预算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b24317fa5b76/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601398.SH", "601939.SH", "601288.SH", "3988.HK", "600900.SH", "TLT", "IEF", "000001.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-66eb42380e", "title": "海洋经济的政策催化需要落到船舶订单、海工装备与海上资源现金流", "titleEn": "Marine-economy policy support must convert into ship orders, offshore equipment, and offshore-resource cash flow", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-66eb42380e/", "laneId": "lane_f8b4918fe5b3", "lane": "海洋经济/船舶海工", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/marine-economy-shipbuilding-and-offshore-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "首席策略师研究报告：多资产配置中的大宗商品敞口优化与通胀粘性下的尾部风险对冲效果评估", "summary": "首席策略师研究报告：多资产配置中的大宗商品敞口优化与通胀粘性下的尾部风险对冲效果评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a44209f7e060/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601890.SH", "600150.SH", "600938.SH", "600583.SH", "603727.SH", "000039.SZ", "0883.HK", "300589.SZ", "601919.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5057edfa79", "title": "AI-Biology 与医疗效率改善需要从科研突破走向支付和监管兑现", "titleEn": "AI biology and healthcare productivity must move from research breakthroughs to reimbursement and regulatory proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5057edfa79/", "laneId": "lane_2eefe4e126c6", "lane": "AI 医疗/生物科技效率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-healthcare-and-biology-productivity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 48, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "财政资金传导与医疗设备更新政策的落地风险：偏向谨慎的压力测试", "summary": "财政资金传导与医疗设备更新政策的落地风险：偏向谨慎的压力测试 报告日期：2026-07-06", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4d4bad2bf224/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300760.SZ", "688271.SH", "300633.SZ", "688212.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "688617.SH", "DHR", "SDGR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-740e729f22", "title": "人民币、美元与套息交易决定跨境风险资产的流动性折价", "titleEn": "RMB, USD, and carry trades define the liquidity discount across cross-border risk assets", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-740e729f22/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 47, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "Global Macro Research Report: USD Long Crowding and JPY Carry Trade Unwind Stress Test", "summary": "Global Macro Research Report: USD Long Crowding and JPY Carry Trade Unwind Stress Test Authoritative Work-Date : 2026-06-27 (Asia/Singapore) Analyst …", "href": 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"id": "thesis-4074d8a3d2", "title": "碳价、可再生能源与储能 CapEx 正在重塑电力资产回报", "titleEn": "Carbon pricing, renewables, and storage capex are reshaping power-asset returns", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4074d8a3d2/", "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80", "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 42, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电网容量与能源保障：评估AI算力扩张下的电力缺口与基础设施响应能力", "summary": "分析日期：2026-06-27 分析师：公用事业分析师 ( utilities-analyst ) 研究来源：已归档 研究记录索引：3/10 研究立场：支持（支持前序 既有研究记录...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-560113b7c46a/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SMR", "002028.SZ", "GEV", "300750.SZ", "600900.SH", "MSFT", "CEG", "300274.SZ", "META", "VST" ] } ], "lanes": [ { "id": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "title": "AI 电力/电网设备", "href": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "thesisCount": 15, "eventCount": 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{ "id": "power-grid", "labelZh": "电力与电网", "labelEn": "Power and grid", "color": "green", "keywords": [ "电力", "电网", "power", "grid", "变压器", "并网", "ppa", "核电", "电气设备" ], "count": 46 }, { "id": "ai-infrastructure", "labelZh": "AI 基础设施", "labelEn": "AI infrastructure", "color": "blue", "keywords": [ "ai 基础设施", "ai infrastructure", "算力", "gpu", "数据中心", "data center", "nvda", "nvidia" ], "count": 17 }, { "id": "semis-memory", "labelZh": "半导体、存储与光互联", "labelEn": "Semis, memory and optical", "color": "yellow", "keywords": [ "半导体", "hbm", "存储", "memory", "cpo", "光模块", "先进封装", "micron", "mu" ], "count": 11 }, { "id": "risk-portfolio", "labelZh": "风险与组合", "labelEn": "Risk and portfolio", "color": "red", "keywords": [ "风险", "组合", "对冲", "波动率", "期权", "portfolio", "hedge", "volatility", "risk budget" ], "count": 1 } ], "analystCounts": [ { "label": "未识别", "count": 226 } ], "categoryCounts": [ { "label": "其他", "count": 226 } ], "provenance": { "contemporaneous": true, "note": "This day view is assembled from public, date-stamped AI Institute research contracts." } }