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"/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "Model-selected kickoff research", "question": "Select one analyst from the institute roster, search for a timely research angle inside that domain, complete the first research card, then hand off t...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "Model Kickoff", "noteCount": 1, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "Model-selected kickoff research", "question": "Select one analyst from the institute roster, search for a timely research angle inside that domain, complete the first research card, then hand off t...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "Model Kickoff", "noteCount": 1, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" } ], "thesisEvents": [ { "id": "thesis-0e520ff02a", "title": "能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e520ff02a/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "美联储政策超调风险下的全球宏观周期与通胀路径", "summary": "前序研究 / 全球宏观分析师 — 工作日期：2026-06-26（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：支持（在前序研究基础上延伸）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7f543093aa45/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "美联储转鹰：2026年6月点阵图翻向加息，背后却是正在回落的油价冲击", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 工作日期：2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b64b43333a56/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "美联储六月鹰派暂停与主席沃什的沟通重塑：前瞻指引的消亡与美债收益率曲线重估", "summary": "美联储六月鹰派暂停与主席沃什的沟通重塑：前瞻指引的消亡与美债收益率曲线重估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ce6c76fd78b1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CVX", "XOM", "SLB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-42faeae623", "title": "CPO、光互联与铜连接决定 AI 集群内部租金迁移", "titleEn": "CPO, optical interconnect, and copper links define rent migration inside AI clusters", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-42faeae623/", "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956", "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 55, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "Gamma去杠杆、CPO收入节奏下修收窄与电力基建对冲格局下的战术资产配置与防线重估报告", "summary": "Gamma去杠杆、CPO收入节奏下修收窄与电力基建对冲格局下的战术资产配置与防线重估报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8ff894ed8da7/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "专题研究报告：AI 基础设施龙头（AI算力/数据中心）在半导体周期波动与高负债压力下的基本面韧性与...", "summary": "专题研究报告：AI 基础设施龙头（AI算力/数据中心）在半导体周期波动与高负债压力下的基本面韧性与估值溢价压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3b986fc664db/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "供给侧压力测试：CoWoS/HBM 产能缺口与 AI 集群部署节奏的\"串行闸门\"风险", "summary": "供给侧压力测试：CoWoS/HBM 产能缺口与 AI 集群部署节奏的\"串行闸门\"风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fcf100cc2060/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "NVDA", "AVGO", "META", "COHR", "LITE", "300394.SZ", "MRVL", "TSM", "MSFT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-eefbf1a467", "title": "中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-eefbf1a467/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录05 · USD/CNY 硬防御阈值与权益托底弹药的消耗速度", "summary": "研究记录 · 作者： 全球宏观分析师（global-macro） 工作日期： 2026-06-26（亚洲/新加坡） · 立场： 压力测试 会话主题： 国家队\"虚假反弹\"托底、散户情绪被动出清后的哑铃重平衡策略", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4a2cf989edf7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "同一机制观点（\"政策托利率、守人民币\"）的跨资产仲裁：以银行股息股权 vs 国债久期 vs 防御型全天...", "summary": "同一机制观点（\"政策托利率、守人民币\"）的跨资产仲裁：以银行股息股权 vs 国债久期 vs 防御型全天候腿持有套息", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6d31c8d627f4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5be4c31f4e", "title": "6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5be4c31f4e/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "全球宏观分化：华许治下美联储鹰派转向与人民银行结构性流动性改革，及大宗商品冲击", "summary": "全球宏观分化：华许治下美联储鹰派转向与人民银行结构性流动性改革，及大宗商品冲击 分析师： chief-economist (首席经济学家) 报告基准日期： 2026-06-26 (亚洲/新加坡)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-86426e81c20b/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "美联储六月鹰派暂停与主席沃什的沟通重塑：前瞻指引的消亡与美债收益率曲线重估", "summary": "美联储六月鹰派暂停与主席沃什的沟通重塑：前瞻指引的消亡与美债收益率曲线重估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ce6c76fd78b1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9cd2a72630", "title": "在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在 6 月非农仅 +5.7 万、CPI 升至三年高位 4.2%、Warsh 领导的美联储将点阵图从降息翻转为加息倾向的背景下，美国是否已…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9cd2a72630/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "美联储转鹰：2026年6月点阵图翻向加息，背后却是正在回落的油价冲击", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 工作日期：2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b64b43333a56/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "强美元与Warsh利率高企下被托的国债机制可持续性压力测试", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-26（Asia/Singapore，机构权威工作日） - 研究来源：已归档 - 共享会议路由： [source-id-redacted] - 研究记录位置：...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e0b5265fe23c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "JPM", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0a0d09421e", "title": "AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0a0d09421e/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "既有研究记录: Blackwell 利用率、电力可得性与 Rubin 迁移排期对中型 CSP 现金流覆盖率...", "summary": "既有研究记录: Blackwell 利用率、电力可得性与 Rubin 迁移排期对中型 CSP 现金流覆盖率的压力测试验证", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dc47c78f49fb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 全球宏观压力测试：G3\"差异化限制性暂停\"、美元流动性收缩与超大规模云厂商资本开支斜...", "summary": "前序研究 — 全球宏观压力测试：G3\"差异化限制性暂停\"、美元流动性收缩与超大规模云厂商资本开支斜率", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-215a49950f48/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3986819dc0", "title": "A 股半导体的核心风险从订单验证转向 A/H 溢价、两融与负 Gamma", "titleEn": "A-share semiconductor risk is shifting from order proof to A/H premium, margin financing, and negative gamma", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3986819dc0/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 61, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "A股风格与板块轮动研判：美股大盘成长向防御/周期轮动映射下的A股结构重塑与交易触发点报告", "summary": "A股风格与板块轮动研判：美股大盘成长向防御/周期轮动映射下的A股结构重塑与交易触发点报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-66e216053060/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "科创50 1750/1600雪球负Gamma账本与交易商Delta对冲路径量化", "summary": "科创50 1750/1600雪球负Gamma账本与交易商Delta对冲路径量化 - 报告日期：2026-07-11 (Asia/Singapore - 研究院权威工作日期) [W0] - 研究 Portal ID：[source-id-redacted] -...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-96c428f04127/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688981.SH", "688256.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "600900.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH", "300308.SZ", "002371.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-fd31cc177b", "title": "债券供给、地方债与久期需求决定利率下行空间", "titleEn": "Bond supply, local-government debt, and duration demand define room for rates to fall", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fd31cc177b/", "laneId": "lane_6fbf93c613f9", "lane": "债券供给/银行久期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/bond-supply-and-bank-duration/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 54, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "中美利差倒挂与离岸人民币流动性紧缩下中资商业银行息差与信贷脆弱性压力测试报告", "summary": "中美利差倒挂与离岸人民币流动性紧缩下中资商业银行息差与信贷脆弱性压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a025a90fbfac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "约 1.4% 净息差地板下，中国银行还能吸收多少资产端宽松？逐家 NIM 压力测试", "summary": "约 1.4% 净息差地板下，中国银行还能吸收多少资产端宽松？逐家 NIM 压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ee046b4bae17/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601398.SH", "601939.SH", "601288.SH", "3988.HK", "600900.SH", "TLT", "IEF", "000001.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-813fa71c15", "title": "科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-813fa71c15/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 84, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "科创50 1750/1600雪球负Gamma账本与交易商Delta对冲路径量化", "summary": "科创50 1750/1600雪球负Gamma账本与交易商Delta对冲路径量化 - 报告日期：2026-07-11 (Asia/Singapore - 研究院权威工作日期) [W0] - 研究 Portal ID：[source-id-redacted] -...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-96c428f04127/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688008.SH", "688041.SH", "688012.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a0828c5498", "title": "在两融余额突破3.015万亿元且电子板块平均CMR跌至138.55%的背景下，下周一强平盘（约1460亿）释放是否会刺穿市场底？组合应如…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在两融余额突破3.015万亿元且电子板块平均CMR跌至138.55%的背景下，下周一强平盘（约1460亿）释放是否会刺穿市场底？组合应如…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a0828c5498/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 82, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "国家队流动性托底机制与两融去杠杆阶段下红利防御端的压力测试报告 (2026-06-26)", "summary": "国家队流动性托底机制与两融去杠杆阶段下红利防御端的压力测试报告 (2026-06-26)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d4328fd182b9/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "510300.SH", "512100.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4f541b33ff", "title": "美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f541b33ff/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试：「更高更久 + 坚挺美元」如何传导至人民币、日元与新兴市场套息复合体", "summary": "压力测试：「更高更久 + 坚挺美元」如何传导至人民币、日元与新兴市场套息复合体", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b8745b04b320/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d03c2555a8", "title": "美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d03c2555a8/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "霍尔木兹海峡能源瓶颈：对全球原油供应及能源转型成本的影响", "summary": "分析师： 能源行业分析师（energy-analyst） · 角色标签： primary（行业专家） 研究记录 工作日（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-06-26 对前序研究的立场： 支持（SUPPORT） （在全球宏观 prior resear...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c3cd267422b1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-07b4ef2695", "title": "地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-07b4ef2695/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "美联储转鹰：2026年6月点阵图翻向加息，背后却是正在回落的油价冲击", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 工作日期：2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b64b43333a56/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CVX", "XOM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9a926eda26", "title": "本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a926eda26/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "国家队流动性托底机制与两融去杠杆阶段下红利防御端的压力测试报告 (2026-06-26)", "summary": "国家队流动性托底机制与两融去杠杆阶段下红利防御端的压力测试报告 (2026-06-26)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d4328fd182b9/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "600905.SH", "DUK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-307b7fe2cb", "title": "美联储7月两难：Warsh鹰派点阵图 vs 开裂的劳动力市场与消退的伊朗油价冲击", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储7月两难：Warsh鹰派点阵图 vs 开裂的劳动力市场与消退的伊朗油价冲击", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-307b7fe2cb/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "美联储转鹰：2026年6月点阵图翻向加息，背后却是正在回落的油价冲击", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 工作日期：2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b64b43333a56/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a3440bf2a4", "title": "中东停火信号下的油价风险应如何重定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中东停火信号下的油价风险应如何重定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a3440bf2a4/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "美联储转鹰：2026年6月点阵图翻向加息，背后却是正在回落的油价冲击", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： global-macro （全球宏观分析师）· 工作日期：2026-06-29（亚洲/新加坡）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b64b43333a56/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b6e4c7b469", "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b6e4c7b469/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "新能源并网与 LCOE 恶化对 AI 算力电力供应的风险传导", "summary": "研究记录（收官卡） - 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师（ ai-infrastructure-analyst ） - 基准工作日： 2026-06-26（亚洲/新加坡） - 立场： stress-test（压力测试研究记录 09 的\"support\"结论...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a89d61dd81c8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d09a741710", "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d09a741710/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "当大负荷绕过电网：电力公用事业的利润率承压、成本社会化与信用风险", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 公用事业分析师 (utilities-analyst) 工作基准日（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-06-26 · 立场： 压力测试 (stress-test) · 会话主题： 2026年超算中心电力瓶颈与核电/SMR融合路...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-392b117d241c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-30acb22a10", "title": "电气设备与电力变压器OEM在跨部门稀缺下的定价权与产能填缺口时点", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电气设备与电力变压器OEM在跨部门稀缺下的定价权与产能填缺口时点", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-30acb22a10/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "上游关键原材料（电工钢、铜、特殊合金）对AI电力基建的传导效应与“二次瓶颈”压力测试", "summary": "上游关键原材料（电工钢、铜、特殊合金）对AI电力基建的传导效应与“二次瓶颈”压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dcc651b12b0a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-08b70be7bf", "title": "在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08b70be7bf/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股AI算力与电力设备板块配置与风格轮动策略研究", "summary": "分析日期： 2026年6月26日 分析师： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 研究来源：已归档 研究记录索引： 02/10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a1985bf2f460/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b3e89f22e6", "title": "在极端关税与30%原料通胀的压力下，全球电网设备（利用率98%、美交期128周）的硬约束赋予A股厂商极强的定价权与贸易规避弹性，其出口高…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在极端关税与30%原料通胀的压力下，全球电网设备（利用率98%、美交期128周）的硬约束赋予A股厂商极强的定价权与贸易规避弹性，其出口高…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b3e89f22e6/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球电网设备核心原材料（取向硅钢与铜）供应集中度与关税成本传导压力测试", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-26 分析师： 材料行业分析师 (Materials Analyst) 基本立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)（对前序既有研究记录中变压器供应链的原材料假设进行更深入的物料级压力测试...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-51e39be2081a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "GEV", "688676.SH", "ETN", "000400.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-97f10202a2", "title": "中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-97f10202a2/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录05 · USD/CNY 硬防御阈值与权益托底弹药的消耗速度", "summary": "研究记录 · 作者： 全球宏观分析师（global-macro） 工作日期： 2026-06-26（亚洲/新加坡） · 立场： 压力测试 会话主题： 国家队\"虚假反弹\"托底、散户情绪被动出清后的哑铃重平衡策略", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4a2cf989edf7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e12bcc0d59", "title": "PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e12bcc0d59/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "国家队流动性托底机制与两融去杠杆阶段下红利防御端的压力测试报告 (2026-06-26)", "summary": "国家队流动性托底机制与两融去杠杆阶段下红利防御端的压力测试报告 (2026-06-26)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d4328fd182b9/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "510300.SH", "512100.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a2fc614c1", "title": "在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a2fc614c1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股电网设备主题组合交易拥挤度、融资余额与ETF资金流应力测试报告", "summary": "分析日期： 2026年6月26日 分析师： 首席策略师 (chief-strategist) 研究来源：已归档 研究记录索引： 09/10 当前立场： 压力测试 (stress-test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b329984dc5ba/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "GEV", "ETN", "CEG", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2aa156c4c9", "title": "2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2aa156c4c9/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "中美利差叠加人民币压力，是否真正为国债收益率封底、并封顶央行宽松？红利腿久期尾部的汇率枢纽检...", "summary": "中美利差叠加人民币压力，是否真正为国债收益率封底、并封顶央行宽松？红利腿久期尾部的汇率枢纽检验", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1faf21dd1bf6/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-11523cabbd", "title": "熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-11523cabbd/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录05 · USD/CNY 硬防御阈值与权益托底弹药的消耗速度", "summary": "研究记录 · 作者： 全球宏观分析师（global-macro） 工作日期： 2026-06-26（亚洲/新加坡） · 立场： 压力测试 会话主题： 国家队\"虚假反弹\"托底、散户情绪被动出清后的哑铃重平衡策略", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4a2cf989edf7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-56d9baf47d", "title": "2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-56d9baf47d/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球宏观分化：华许治下美联储鹰派转向与人民银行结构性流动性改革，及大宗商品冲击", "summary": "全球宏观分化：华许治下美联储鹰派转向与人民银行结构性流动性改革，及大宗商品冲击 分析师： chief-economist (首席经济学家) 报告基准日期： 2026-06-26 (亚洲/新加坡)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-86426e81c20b/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f9ce8d294d", "title": "人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f9ce8d294d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试：「更高更久 + 坚挺美元」如何传导至人民币、日元与新兴市场套息复合体", "summary": "压力测试：「更高更久 + 坚挺美元」如何传导至人民币、日元与新兴市场套息复合体", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b8745b04b320/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c71e511c1c", "title": "电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c71e511c1c/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股AI算力与电力设备板块配置与风格轮动策略研究", "summary": "分析日期： 2026年6月26日 分析师： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 研究来源：已归档 研究记录索引： 02/10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a1985bf2f460/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "PWR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ab1fb6a453", "title": "DeepSeek 式低价模型正在重塑 AI 定价权与软件利润池", "titleEn": "DeepSeek-style low-cost models are reshaping AI pricing power and software profit pools", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ab1fb6a453/", "laneId": "lane_13710af7e06d", "lane": "低价模型/AI 软件利润池", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/low-cost-models-and-ai-software-profit-pools/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 72, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI 基础设施研究：从算力到电网的范式转移", "summary": "AI 基础设施研究：从算力到电网的范式转移 分析师: AI基础设施分析师 ( ai-infrastructure-analyst ) 日期: 2026-06-26", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d7ef5a0339f3/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "BABA", "MSFT", "BIDU", "9988.HK", "CRM", "0700.HK", "NVDA", "NOW", "9888.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0", "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层", "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "Hyperscaler 资本开支节奏 vs. CoWoS/HBM4 供应闸门——对 AI 服务器需求曲线的传导", "summary": "Hyperscaler 资本开支节奏 vs. CoWoS/HBM4 供应闸门——对 AI 服务器需求曲线的传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-98e536aefa3f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "TSM", "AVGO", "AAPL", "TSLA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-34ed317472", "title": "A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-34ed317472/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股电网设备主题组合交易拥挤度、融资余额与ETF资金流应力测试报告", "summary": "分析日期： 2026年6月26日 分析师： 首席策略师 (chief-strategist) 研究来源：已归档 研究记录索引： 09/10 当前立场： 压力测试 (stress-test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b329984dc5ba/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "510300.SH", "512100.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0346c87b0c", "title": "当前AI算力扩容的主瓶颈是电力和电网交付第一、芯片第二；没有已通电MW背书的纸面算力应被折价。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当前AI算力扩容的主瓶颈是电力和电网交付第一、芯片第二；没有已通电MW背书的纸面算力应被折价。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0346c87b0c/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "新能源并网与 LCOE 恶化对 AI 算力电力供应的风险传导", "summary": "研究记录（收官卡） - 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师（ ai-infrastructure-analyst ） - 基准工作日： 2026-06-26（亚洲/新加坡） - 立场： stress-test（压力测试研究记录 09 的\"support\"结论...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a89d61dd81c8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "CEG", "VST", "601985.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3f6ee4feb9", "title": "核电容量机制可改善现金流，但资本开支约束仍在", "titleEn": "Nuclear capacity mechanisms may improve cash flow, but capex remains binding", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3f6ee4feb9/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI基础设施与电力瓶颈：2026年超算中心电力供需缺口及核电/SMR融合路线图深度剖析", "summary": "AI基础设施与电力瓶颈：2026年超算中心电力供需缺口及核电/SMR融合路线图深度剖析", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a654b40bf909/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "CEG", "AEP", "600025.SH", "DUK", "1816.HK", "NEE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b13b8604a5", "title": "美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13b8604a5/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试：「更高更久 + 坚挺美元」如何传导至人民币、日元与新兴市场套息复合体", "summary": "压力测试：「更高更久 + 坚挺美元」如何传导至人民币、日元与新兴市场套息复合体", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b8745b04b320/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "KWEB", "FXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-df608ec2a1", "title": "AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-df608ec2a1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "首席策略师研究报告（2026-06-26）：物理电网容量约束下A股电力设备的战术仓位优化", "summary": "首席策略师研究报告（2026-06-26）：物理电网容量约束下A股电力设备的战术仓位优化", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2aa041d4a5bf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "GEV", "600089.SH", "ETN", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c2eb2a0b9d", "title": "AI 租赁营收的兑现并非取决于芯片购买量，而是取决于长达 2-4 年的电力交付周期，物理稀缺性正成为限制营收增速的硬顶。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI 租赁营收的兑现并非取决于芯片购买量，而是取决于长达 2-4 年的电力交付周期，物理稀缺性正成为限制营收增速的硬顶。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c2eb2a0b9d/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-26 - 能源研究片：AI算力扩张对电力供给与电网容量的压力测试", "summary": "2026-06-26 - 能源研究片：AI算力扩张对电力供给与电网容量的压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-85da8238bb5d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "601179.SH", "600089.SH", "CEG", "688676.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d1f5e35b43", "title": "2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d1f5e35b43/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "供给侧压力测试：CoWoS/HBM 产能缺口与 AI 集群部署节奏的\"串行闸门\"风险", "summary": "供给侧压力测试：CoWoS/HBM 产能缺口与 AI 集群部署节奏的\"串行闸门\"风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fcf100cc2060/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-100e81e234", "title": "AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-100e81e234/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股AI算力与电力设备板块配置与风格轮动策略研究", "summary": "分析日期： 2026年6月26日 分析师： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 研究来源：已归档 研究记录索引： 02/10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a1985bf2f460/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f3989d02c5", "title": "全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f3989d02c5/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股AI算力与电力设备板块配置与风格轮动策略研究", "summary": "分析日期： 2026年6月26日 分析师： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 研究来源：已归档 研究记录索引： 02/10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a1985bf2f460/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "META", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-025e4c0d2d", "title": "复合材料业务修复向利润增长传导", "titleEn": "Composite-Materials Recovery Transmits into Earnings Growth", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-025e4c0d2d/", "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80", "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "霍尔木兹海峡能源瓶颈：对全球原油供应及能源转型成本的影响", "summary": "分析师： 能源行业分析师（energy-analyst） · 角色标签： primary（行业专家） 研究记录 工作日（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-06-26 对前序研究的立场： 支持（SUPPORT） （在全球宏观 prior resear...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c3cd267422b1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300274.SZ", "002028.SZ", "300750.SZ", "002080.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f5d7a79c82", "title": "HBM4、CoWoS 与背面供电正在成为 AI 服务器需求曲线的串行闸门", "titleEn": "HBM4, CoWoS, and backside power are becoming serial gates for the AI-server demand curve", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5d7a79c82/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "Hyperscaler 资本开支节奏 vs. CoWoS/HBM4 供应闸门——对 AI 服务器需求曲线的传导", "summary": "Hyperscaler 资本开支节奏 vs. CoWoS/HBM4 供应闸门——对 AI 服务器需求曲线的传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-98e536aefa3f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "000660.KS", "MU", "AMD", "META", "AVGO", "MSFT", "AMZN", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bef6966fdd", "title": "工业机械的出口订单质量和设备更新周期决定制造业 CapEx 弹性", "titleEn": "Industrial machinery beta depends on export-order quality and equipment-upgrade capex", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bef6966fdd/", "laneId": "lane_6e2dcaab093e", "lane": "工业机械/设备更新出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/industrial-machinery-equipment-upgrade-and-exports/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 59, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "美股板块轮动日报 (2026-06-26)", "summary": "核心摘要 今日美股市场呈现出明显的“大轮动”（Mega Rotation）与防守型资金重新配置格局。标普500指数基本平收（微跌至 7357.17 点），但在板块层面出现了显著的分化：科技与通讯板块（XLK、X...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f87b73363667/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600031.SH", "600761.SH", "002747.SZ", "000425.SZ", "603338.SH", "603298.SH", "000157.SZ", "601100.SH", "300124.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-6f42e0fe6e", "title": "稀土、铜铝与关键材料正在成为 AI 与新能源共用的供给约束", "titleEn": "Rare earths, copper, aluminum, and key materials are becoming shared supply constraints for AI and energy transition", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6f42e0fe6e/", "laneId": "lane_8c4a3526fcca", "lane": "关键材料/稀土铜铝", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/critical-materials-rare-earths-copper-and-aluminum/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 58, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球电网设备核心原材料（取向硅钢与铜）供应集中度与关税成本传导压力测试", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-26 分析师： 材料行业分析师 (Materials Analyst) 基本立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)（对前序既有研究记录中变压器供应链的原材料假设进行更深入的物料级压力测试...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-51e39be2081a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "FCX", "GEV", "000831.SZ", "SCCO", "ETN", "MP", "TECK", "600111.SH", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-cb2ab35c55", "title": "AI 基础设施扩张从规模驱动切换到 TCO、能效和利用率筛选", "titleEn": "AI infrastructure expansion is shifting from scale to TCO, power efficiency, and utilization screening", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-cb2ab35c55/", "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87", "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 58, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电网缓释后的AI集群硬件瓶颈压力测试 — 工作日 2026-06-26", "summary": "截至机构工作日 2026-06-26 （已在共享工作区用 系统日期锚 确认 [自测算]），本报告对既有研究记录采取 压力测试 立场。前序研究称电网侧对冲已将CPO收入下修压力收窄至 13%-17%...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1bbcb15bc4b1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "META", "MU", "MSFT", "AVGO", "VRT", "000660.KS", "DELL" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9d3836cc07", "title": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "titleEn": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d3836cc07/", "laneId": "lane_008e3bd9306a", "lane": "AI 软件效率/生产率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-software-productivity/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 58, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "Hyperscaler 资本开支节奏 vs. CoWoS/HBM4 供应闸门——对 AI 服务器需求曲线的传导", "summary": "Hyperscaler 资本开支节奏 vs. CoWoS/HBM4 供应闸门——对 AI 服务器需求曲线的传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-98e536aefa3f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "NVDA", "NOW", "CRM", "ADBE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-603a5f7966", "title": "A 股硬科技与科创50的复苏需要订单、融资盘和指数结构共振", "titleEn": "A-share hard tech and STAR50 recovery needs orders, margin positioning, and index structure to align", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-603a5f7966/", "laneId": "lane_4cc1e74d8e5f", "lane": "A股硬科技/科创50", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-hard-tech-and-star50/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 56, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "Gamma去杠杆、CPO收入节奏下修收窄与电力基建对冲格局下的战术资产配置与防线重估报告", "summary": "Gamma去杠杆、CPO收入节奏下修收窄与电力基建对冲格局下的战术资产配置与防线重估报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8ff894ed8da7/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "600900.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH", "300394.SZ", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-21dd72c1b1", "title": "航空航天与国防供应链错配正在形成政策驱动的制造业弹性", "titleEn": "Aerospace and defense supply-chain mismatch is creating policy-driven manufacturing beta", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-21dd72c1b1/", "laneId": "lane_1514a60f727a", "lane": "国防航空航天供应链", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/defense-and-aerospace-supply-chain/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 55, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [], "stockTickers": [ "LMT", "RTX", "NOC", "RKLB", "BA", "CAT", "IRDM", "ASTS", "HWM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-08dd090dc9", "title": "公用事业从防御红利切换到电网扩容、容量费与信用再定价", "titleEn": "Utilities are shifting from defensive dividends to grid expansion, capacity fees, and credit repricing", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08dd090dc9/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "当大负荷绕过电网：电力公用事业的利润率承压、成本社会化与信用风险", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 公用事业分析师 (utilities-analyst) 工作基准日（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-06-26 · 立场： 压力测试 (stress-test) · 会话主题： 2026年超算中心电力瓶颈与核电/SMR融合路...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-392b117d241c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "AEP", "600900.SH", "CEG", "DUK", "VST", "XLU", "META", "NEE", "SMR", "GEV" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e9630d3ee1", "title": "日元套息平仓是 EM 科技、离岸中资与高 beta 主题的尾部流动性风险", "titleEn": "Yen carry unwind is a tail liquidity risk for EM tech, offshore China, and high-beta themes", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e9630d3ee1/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 52, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试：「更高更久 + 坚挺美元」如何传导至人民币、日元与新兴市场套息复合体", "summary": "压力测试：「更高更久 + 坚挺美元」如何传导至人民币、日元与新兴市场套息复合体", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b8745b04b320/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "CME", "CBOE", "LOW", "UUP", "EEM", "FXY", "EWJ", "MCHI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9a860a8801", "title": "信用再融资压力正在把利率风险转化为资产负债表筛选", "titleEn": "Credit refinancing pressure is turning rate risk into balance-sheet selection", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a860a8801/", "laneId": "lane_b29e1d216a21", "lane": "信用再融资/私募信贷", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/credit-refinancing-and-private-debt/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 52, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "既有研究记录：2026-06-26 中型 CSP 债务压力向私人信贷、银团贷款与宏观信用利差的传导...", "summary": "既有研究记录：2026-06-26 中型 CSP 债务压力向私人信贷、银团贷款与宏观信用利差的传导压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1c59f6a0e174/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "KRE", "JPM", "META", "BX", "ARES", "KKR", "APO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3d421524cd", "title": "油价地缘底线决定再通胀与降息交易的安全边际", "titleEn": "The geopolitical oil floor defines the margin of safety for disinflation and rate-cut trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3d421524cd/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 50, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-26 前序研究——油价下行与加息去同步后的套息与输入性通胀重新定价", "summary": "2026-06-26 前序研究——油价下行与加息去同步后的套息与输入性通胀重新定价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-57676d4cdd3a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CME", "CVX", "XOM", "600938.SH", "600900.SH", "0857.HK", "COP", "601857.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9e97140446", "title": "中国电力设备出海进入订单质量与政策筛选期", "titleEn": "Chinese power-equipment exports enter an order-quality and policy filter phase", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9e97140446/", "laneId": "lane_e4b72516d71a", "lane": "中国电力设备出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-power-equipment-exports/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "首席策略师研究报告（2026-06-26）：物理电网容量约束下A股电力设备的战术仓位优化", "summary": "首席策略师研究报告（2026-06-26）：物理电网容量约束下A股电力设备的战术仓位优化", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2aa041d4a5bf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "ETN", "GEV", "002270.SZ", "688676.SH", "ABBNY", "600406.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-740e729f22", "title": "人民币、美元与套息交易决定跨境风险资产的流动性折价", "titleEn": "RMB, USD, and carry trades define the liquidity discount across cross-border risk assets", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-740e729f22/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 47, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试：「更高更久 + 坚挺美元」如何传导至人民币、日元与新兴市场套息复合体", "summary": "压力测试：「更高更久 + 坚挺美元」如何传导至人民币、日元与新兴市场套息复合体", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b8745b04b320/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "3988.HK", "0700.HK", "UUP", "2800.HK", "9988.HK", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-1aaa752ed4", "title": "AI 电力与电网瓶颈仍是基础设施主线", "titleEn": "AI power and grid bottlenecks remain the infrastructure core", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-1aaa752ed4/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 45, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "首席策略师研究报告（2026-06-26）：物理电网容量约束下A股电力设备的战术仓位优化", "summary": "首席策略师研究报告（2026-06-26）：物理电网容量约束下A股电力设备的战术仓位优化", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2aa041d4a5bf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "META", "600089.SH", "MSFT", "601179.SH", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4074d8a3d2", "title": "碳价、可再生能源与储能 CapEx 正在重塑电力资产回报", "titleEn": "Carbon pricing, renewables, and storage capex are reshaping power-asset returns", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4074d8a3d2/", "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80", "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 42, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "新能源并网与 LCOE 恶化对 AI 算力电力供应的风险传导", "summary": "研究记录（收官卡） - 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师（ ai-infrastructure-analyst ） - 基准工作日： 2026-06-26（亚洲/新加坡） - 立场： stress-test（压力测试研究记录 09 的\"support\"结论...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a89d61dd81c8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SMR", "002028.SZ", "GEV", "300750.SZ", "600900.SH", "MSFT", "CEG", "300274.SZ", "META", "VST" ] } ], "lanes": [ { "id": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "title": "AI 电力/电网设备", "href": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "thesisCount": 10, "eventCount": 10, "convictionTotal": 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