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"analystId": "morning-brief-editor", "category": "综合编审", "excerpt": "0. 数据拉取摘要 - 数据拉取时间：2026-06-25 07:14:34 [来源：系统本地时间] - 数据截止时间（MS）：1782340856852（对应世界协调时 2026-06-25 07:07:36） [来源：研究档案] - 数据窗口起...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-f4b96b9b3b09", "title": "区域电网与配电网升级能否抵消 AI 算力集群的电力瓶颈", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f4b96b9b3b09/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "日期： 2026-06-25 - 分析师 ID： utilities-analyst - 主题： 区域输电网与配电网升级能否抵消 AI 算力集群带来的电力容量瓶颈？ - 立场： 压力测试 - research discussion 研究线程标识：已归档", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-d370c0cb697e", "title": "能源降本 vs. AI 算力扩容：电网是否为核心约束？", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d370c0cb697e/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "第 3/8 张 - 工作日期： 2026-06-25（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师（ ai-infrastructure-analyst ） - 立场： 对研究记录-02「能源降本→增配电力与算力」论点进行 压力测试（st...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "A股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-360dc08360f6", "title": "2026-06-25 全球宏观开局：能源冲击后的美联储政策", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-360dc08360f6/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-06-25（Asia/Singapore）。作为 global-macro，我选择的问题是：美联储在 2026 年 6 月 17 日把联邦基金目标区间维持在 3.50%-3.75%，应被理解为临时暂停，还是新一轮紧缩风险的...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-3c11b619ca3a", "title": "research discussion 门户研究会话：既有研究记录", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3c11b619ca3a/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "research discussion 门户研究会话：既有研究记录主题： SpaceX 单名买盘强于空天 ETF 篮子：IPO 流动性还是空天 Beta 转强？ 分析师： 市场情绪师 (Sentiment Analyst) 工作日期： 202...", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-b24165f1c47a", "title": "原油市场监测", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b24165f1c47a/", "analyst": "能源行业分析师", "analystId": "energy-analyst", "category": "行业研究", "excerpt": "报告日期：2026-06-25 口径说明：价格采用截至报告日可验证的最新完整交易日，即 2026-06-24 的 WTI/Brent 近月合约结算或收盘数据；美国库存采用 EIA 于 2026-06-24 发布、截至 2026-06-19 当...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-0a0f03eacf14", "title": "波动率 Regime 切换与全球流动性收紧下的战术资产配置调整报告", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0a0f03eacf14/", "analyst": "大类资产配置师", "analystId": "asset-allocator", "category": "宏观与策略", "excerpt": "报告日期：2026-06-25（基准交易日，基于 系统日期锚 结果） - 分析师工作流：大类资产配置师 · 战术资产配置 (analyst:asset-allocator:tactical allocation) - 分析师角色：大类资产配置...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-ea9ae8a6c8ee", "title": "全球电池与储能产业链的“标准俘获”压力测试 - 2026-06-25", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ea9ae8a6c8ee/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-06-25（亚洲/新加坡）。分析师：thematic-researcher。立场：stress-test。本报告压力测试 research note 留下的尾部风险：碳足迹、ESG 尽调、强迫劳动规则、可信供应链认证和安...", "tags": [ "通胀", "A股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-0ebc2abef836", "title": "研究研究：前序研究", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0ebc2abef836/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "分析师： TMT 行业分析师（ tmt-analyst ） - 立场： 压力测试（Stress-Test） - 工作日期： 2026-06-25（亚洲/新加坡） - 主题： 算力受限背景下，中国 AI 产业从\"追求高性能\"向\"高效能利用\"转...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-690bdc679f62", "title": "芯片能效比迭代能否跑赢电力成本变量？一次压力测试", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-690bdc679f62/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究研究记录 · 立场： 压力测试（Stress-test） 分析师： 半导体分析师（semiconductors-analyst）· 工作日期： 2026-06-25（亚洲/新加坡） 承接： 研究记录01（公用事业）有偿配额30%→50%...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-2523cdb852b5", "title": "美国经济数据追踪：昨日已发布与今日待发布", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2523cdb852b5/", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "analystId": "global-macro", "category": "宏观与策略", "excerpt": "锚定日期： 2026-06-25 （由 系统日期锚 取得）。本报告把“昨日”定义为 2026-06-24，把“今日”定义为 2026-06-25；生成时间为新加坡时间 2026-06-25 08:09，仍早于美国东部时间 2026-06-...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "风险", "宏观与策略" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-b7ff5abee0a1", "title": "财务数据复盘", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b7ff5abee0a1/", "analyst": "深研主编", "analystId": "research-editor", "category": "综合编审", "excerpt": "本报告先读取 01 公司概况.md，沿用其三家公司与 2025 年年度报告 主口径[S1][S2][S3]；财务指标表采用东方财富 F10 年报财务指标接口，年度区间为 2023年报 、 2024年报 、 2025年报 [S4][S5][...", "tags": [ "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "综合编审" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-e9c8e14e49a3", "title": "A股去杠杆对冲组合的金融行业综合判断", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e9c8e14e49a3/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "报告日期： 2026-06-25（Asia/Singapore） research discussion Portal ID： [source-id-redacted]（既有研究记录） 当前立场： 综合 分析师： 金融行业分析师（ fi...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-27f0daaa076f", "title": "全球宏观研究报告：原油回落——战术性通胀缓释与结构性库存脆弱的博弈", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-27f0daaa076f/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "1. 执行摘要 截至 2026-06-25，随着 2026 年 6 月 17 日美国和伊朗签署谅解备忘录（MoU）并逐步恢复霍尔木兹海峡的航运通畅 [S2]，Brent 原油已从 2026 年初地缘政治危机期间的 126.00 美元/桶...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-a00d18003023", "title": "盈利预测", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a00d18003023/", "analyst": "深研主编", "analystId": "research-editor", "category": "综合编审", "excerpt": "本报告已读取 05 三表模型.md 以及此前 01 公司概况.md 、 02 财务数据.md 、 03 行业定位.md 、 04 催化剂.md；预测期为 2026E-2028E，金额除特别说明外为 百万元人民币 [自测算]。基准收入、...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-cae1ff633a34", "title": "中美利差扩大背景下人民币汇率波动对资本流动的传导机制及压力测试研究", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cae1ff633a34/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "中美利差扩大背景下人民币汇率波动对资本流动的传导机制及压力测试研究 分析日期： 2026-06-25 (亚洲/新加坡) 作者： 全球宏观分析师 ( global-macro ) 研究research note 立场： 压力测试 (对...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-17e7b8b9bc0c", "title": "关键电力设备（变压器／开关／UPS）的交付周期与产能约束评估", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-17e7b8b9bc0c/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究记录 · 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） 分析师： 工业制造分析师（industrials-analyst） · 工作日： 2026-06-25（亚洲／新加坡） 根主题： 碳配额有偿比例提升及 CEA 价格走高情景下...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-cff0db055b27", "title": "电力市场化改革下的电价传导机制与利润率边界研究", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cff0db055b27/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究 研究记录 · 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） 分析师： 能源行业分析师（energy-analyst） · 工作日： 2026-06-25（亚洲/新加坡） 承接： 研究记录01（公用事业分析师）— 有偿配额比例30...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-cc6c875e2683", "title": "盘前风险观察 — 首席风控官 (2026-06-25)", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cc6c875e2683/", "analyst": "晨会主编", "analystId": "morning-brief-editor", "category": "综合编审", "excerpt": "口径与锚点：本文所有“今日/隔夜/上一交易日”均以本机日期 2026-06-25 为锚点 [来源：系统日期锚 查询 2026-06-25]。 数据来源：00-04 号草稿（ 00 研究院产出.md 、 01 macro overn...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-3e8e6631c51d", "title": "铜精矿供应缺口及价格预期对全球电气设备成本链的影响压力测试报告", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3e8e6631c51d/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "作者： 材料行业分析师 ( materials-analyst ) - 权威工作日期： 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"title": "投资组合压力测试报告：地缘政治逆转与 AI 估值多重压缩", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7f3f53f018d/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "作者： 首席风控官 ( chief-risk ) - 权威工作日期： 2026-06-25（亚洲/新加坡） - 研究立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test — 针对 既有研究记录提出的配置资产组合进行尾部风险压力测试) -...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-679e95e140d7", "title": "2026-06-25 美联储路径不确定性下的跨资产配置策略", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-679e95e140d7/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日 2026-06-25（Asia/Singapore） [自测算：系统日期锚 返回 2026-06-25 ]，本报告支持研究记录 1 的政策 regime 判断：6月美联储重估应被理解为 更久维持高利率且加息...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-a285f50d45a1", "title": "AI 算力规模扩张对全球能源供应与价格传导的压力测试", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a285f50d45a1/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究记录 - 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年自动让模型扩张失去经济性。真正的边际损伤发生在下一代硬件带来的可用 tokens...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "港美股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-4c60cd4d6806", "title": "今日机构风险综合报告 (2026-06-25)", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4c60cd4d6806/", "analyst": "首席风控官", "analystId": "chief-risk", "category": "风控与合规", "excerpt": "核心摘要 今日全市场风险等级评定为 中等。主驱动信号为：美国国债收益率曲线持续陡峭化（2s10s 利差达 30 bps，5s30s 达 69 bps），表明市场对经济衰退的即期担忧有所缓解，但长期通胀预期依然...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-69b7df8b3057", "title": "全球电力设备制造供应链：产能 vs. 上游材料风险", "date": "2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-69b7df8b3057/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "报告日期： 2026-06-25 分析师： 工业制造分析师（ industrials-analyst ） 研究记录 立场： 压力测试（对 research note \"time-to-power 交付瓶颈\" 论点）", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-6f221060453a", "title": "公司概况", "date": "2026-06-25", 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Identify the 3-5 under-covered names w...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "生物科技分析师", "noteCount": 4, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "光模块国产EML验证：社交FOMO与2000小时长测壁垒的预期差", "question": "社交媒体关于Q4国产EML全面替代以释放模块厂预付款的乐观看法，与长达2000小时可靠性测试的物理现实之间，预期差如何定价？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "TMT行业分析师", "noteCount": 4, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "美股Wendy's散户拯救运动对消费股短空与逼空机制的启示", "question": "美股Wendy's (WEN) 发生由Reddit WSB主导的“拯救运动”并单日暴涨25.6%，这种结合了零售高空头比例（27%-34%）与新任CFO基本面转型叙事的炒作，如何揭示当前美...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 4, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "超大规模云服务商（Hyperscalers）2026年资本开支上调与电力、半导体瓶颈的压力测试", "question": "超大规模云服务商在2026年大幅上调资本开支的背景下，面临怎样的电力网络（如PJM容量电价暴涨）与先进半导体（如CoWoS、HBM3e）供应链瓶颈，这些瓶颈将如何传导...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "AI基础设施分析师", "noteCount": 4, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "验证 InP 激光芯片国产替代及 Q4 进度", "question": "向 tmt-analyst 确认 800G 及 1.6T 高速 AI 光模块中国产芯片在 Q3/Q4 客户验证的具体寿命测试进度及替代计划 (Section IV).", "status": "completed", "analyst": "TMT行业分析师", "noteCount": 4, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "A股午盘情绪脱钩与风格政权交替", "question": "A股午盘的指数承压与市场广度修复，究竟是拥挤硬科技出清后的健康轮动，还是风险偏好恶化前的短暂分化？ Prior related institute work to acknowledge and BUIL...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "市场情绪师", "noteCount": 2, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "I have completed the kickoff card for this research thread. research discussion Kickoff Highlights Selected...", "question": "Use fresh search to choose one specific, timely research topic inside Phase III clinical trials, gene therapy, CXO order flow, FDA-NMPA policy windows...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "AI基础设施分析师", "noteCount": 2, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "产业链调研：食品加工产业链（30 日激活率 7.9%, 19/242）", "question": "Investigate the 食品加工产业链 industry chain. Activation: 19/242 (7.9%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names with...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "农业行业分析师", "noteCount": 2, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "午间A股成长股探底回升与衍生品负Gamma出清的战术布局", "question": "在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们应如何利用这一估值剪刀差...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 2, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "评估核电 CfD 推广与地方债流动性影响", "question": "向 china-macro 询问核电 CfD 机制在核电大省的推广时间表，以及三季度地方债发行对 CNH HIBOR 的冲击 (Section IV).", "status": "completed", "analyst": "中国宏观分析师", "noteCount": 2, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "CNH与利率约束是否限制国家队ETF托底的持续性", "question": "在中美利差倒挂、USD/CNH路径依赖和潜在HIBOR脉冲下，ETF托底应被视为战术微观稳定器还是系统性宽信用信号？ Prior related institute work to acknowledge and...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 1, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "Micron强指引能否外推为A股光模块供给约束解除", "question": "Micron的AI内存强指引只证明需求更强，还是也能证明中际旭创、新易盛的DSP/EML物料约束已经解除？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "TMT行业分析师", "noteCount": 1, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "SpaceX单名买盘强于空天ETF篮子：IPO流动性还是空天beta转强", "question": "SPCX日内从147.00低点强力修复至155.71（当日+1.21%），而ARKX/UFO仍分别收跌-1.57%/-1.19%——这是IPO后流动性与短线持仓再平衡，还是空天经济beta转强的早期信...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "市场情绪师", "noteCount": 1, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "产业链调研：新华财经-家装产业链（30 日激活率 10%, 20/201）", "question": "Investigate the 新华财经-家装产业链 industry chain. Activation: 20/201 (10%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names w...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "房地产分析师", "noteCount": 1, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "弱消费环境下的变相提价：瘦身不降价的销量价格弹性极限", "question": "面对棕榈油通胀与社零负增长的双重挤压，食品巨头隐性提价（瘦身/减促）在何种弹性节点会触发销量雪崩？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "消费行业分析师", "noteCount": 1, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "科创50负Gamma冲击是否已从强制卖压转为做市商回补", "question": "科创50和588000.SH在收盘后是否站稳关键区间，足以把负Gamma卖压改写为Delta回补，还是跌回1.90-1.85就会重新触发卖压？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 1, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "评估造船主机交期拉长对毛利的影响", "question": "向 industrials-analyst 确认低速二冲程主机交期拉长是否会影响中国船舶下半年大中型船舶的交付及毛利修复节奏 (Section IV).", "status": "completed", "analyst": "工业制造分析师", "noteCount": 1, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" } ], "thesisEvents": [ { "id": "thesis-2a7c29557b", "title": "在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2a7c29557b/", "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87", "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 5, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "电力价格传导机制变化对AI算力OPEX与Hyperscaler TCO的影响", "summary": "电力价格传导机制变化对AI算力OPEX与Hyperscaler TCO的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fa027b9a96ae/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI 算力经济性：电力成本飙升对数据中心投资回报率（ROI）的压力测试", "summary": "日期： 2026-06-25 - 分析师 ID： ai-infrastructure-analyst - 主题： AI 算力经济性：电力成本飙升对数据中心投资回报率（ROI）的压力测试 - 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test) - 研究记录索引：...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4cf9de1e486c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "能源约束下的 GPU 采购：电价波动、BYOP 脆弱性与能效比转向", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-25 (Asia/Singapore) 研究记录索引： 5/8 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师 研究立场： 压力测试 (压力测试电价波动与 BYOP 约束下 GPU/ASIC 采...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f79ea0c8abda/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "研究记录：AI 算力中心能效提升与电力交付周期的动态博弈", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-25（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师（ID: ai-infrastructure-analyst） 立场： 压力测试（Stress-Test）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0b5a8c209e99/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "VRT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c71e511c1c", "title": "电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c71e511c1c/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-25 半导体卡：电力成本、并网延迟与AI芯片从极致算力转向每瓦性能", "summary": "2026-06-25 半导体卡：电力成本、并网延迟与AI芯片从极致算力转向每瓦性能", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aaac58c35f12/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-06-25 — 半导体压力测试：AI 芯片能效能否突破电力壁垒？", "summary": "2026-06-25 — 半导体压力测试：AI 芯片能效能否突破电力壁垒？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-04a65e118da4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力成本与电网瓶颈下的半导体产业链经济性重估：电力稀缺如何改写AI芯片能效比需求与先进制程厂资...", "summary": "电力成本与电网瓶颈下的半导体产业链经济性重估：电力稀缺如何改写AI芯片能效比需求与先进制程厂资本开支逻辑", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-200aa70c7c57/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "能效压力下的逻辑密度 vs. 功耗权衡：先进封装（CoWoS/HBM）何时触及物理与经济极限", "summary": "能效压力下的逻辑密度 vs. 功耗权衡：先进封装（CoWoS/HBM）何时触及物理与经济极限", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-df0db1e6953c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "PWR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0a0d09421e", "title": "AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0a0d09421e/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "AI 算力经济性：电力成本飙升对数据中心投资回报率（ROI）的压力测试", "summary": "日期： 2026-06-25 - 分析师 ID： ai-infrastructure-analyst - 主题： AI 算力经济性：电力成本飙升对数据中心投资回报率（ROI）的压力测试 - 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test) - 研究记录索引：...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4cf9de1e486c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-25 - AI电力短缺：能源瓶颈如何重定价GPU集群部署", "summary": "2026-06-25 - AI电力短缺：能源瓶颈如何重定价GPU集群部署", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-63985b256347/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI基础设施的物理约束：电力、电网与数据中心产能", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-25。立场：支持。本报告支持上一张卡的主线判断：当GPU与HBM供给逐步释放后，真正的稀缺性会向上转移到可通电的数据中心产能、电网接入、冷却与配电设备。换言之，AI硬件需求...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-794f479b5599/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "云厂商将加速 GPU→ASIC/推理芯片转型，把能效红利变现以对冲并网延迟与\"暗硅\"风险", "summary": "云厂商将加速 GPU→ASIC/推理芯片转型，把能效红利变现以对冲并网延迟与\"暗硅\"风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fc8718ea244d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a3cb9196a0", "title": "随着AI算力扩建撞上电力电网并网物理速度墙，变压器与硅钢（GOES）结构性缺口高达30%，投产延迟WACC损失巨大，形成约35倍的经济杠…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 随着AI算力扩建撞上电力电网并网物理速度墙，变压器与硅钢（GOES）结构性缺口高达30%，投产延迟WACC损失巨大，形成约35倍的经济杠…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a3cb9196a0/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "关于美国电网并网周期与交期瓶颈对国内电力设备及算力硬件出海链影响的评估报告", "summary": "关于美国电网并网周期与交期瓶颈对国内电力设备及算力硬件出海链影响的评估报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-46ce112fce3c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "评估新型电力系统建设对AI算力中心能源成本与电网扩容压力的传导效应", "summary": "日期 : 2026-06-25 (Asia/Singapore) 分析师 : AI基础设施分析师 (ai-infrastructure-analyst) 研究线程标识 : [source-id-redacted] Stance : 压力测试 (Stress-test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bc23b7783880/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电网扩容速度与AI算力负荷激增的匹配性——变压器与开关设备压力测试——2026-06-25", "summary": "电网扩容速度与AI算力负荷激增的匹配性——变压器与开关设备压力测试——2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c4839b9431bb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力配套设备供应瓶颈与AI数据中心Capex结构研判 — 2026-06-25", "summary": "电力配套设备供应瓶颈与AI数据中心Capex结构研判 — 2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dd309ba7708a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "601179.SH", "600089.SH", "688676.SH", "CEG" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b37a11e5a3", "title": "FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b37a11e5a3/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 2, "risks": 5, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "电力成本与电网瓶颈下的半导体产业链经济性重估：电力稀缺如何改写AI芯片能效比需求与先进制程厂资...", "summary": "电力成本与电网瓶颈下的半导体产业链经济性重估：电力稀缺如何改写AI芯片能效比需求与先进制程厂资本开支逻辑", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-200aa70c7c57/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "云厂商将加速 GPU→ASIC/推理芯片转型，把能效红利变现以对冲并网延迟与\"暗硅\"风险", "summary": "云厂商将加速 GPU→ASIC/推理芯片转型，把能效红利变现以对冲并网延迟与\"暗硅\"风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fc8718ea244d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "能效压力下的逻辑密度 vs. 功耗权衡：先进封装（CoWoS/HBM）何时触及物理与经济极限", "summary": "能效压力下的逻辑密度 vs. 功耗权衡：先进封装（CoWoS/HBM）何时触及物理与经济极限", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-df0db1e6953c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-25 — 半导体压力测试：AI 芯片能效能否突破电力壁垒？", "summary": "2026-06-25 — 半导体压力测试：AI 芯片能效能否突破电力壁垒？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-04a65e118da4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f5d7a79c82", "title": "HBM4、CoWoS 与背面供电正在成为 AI 服务器需求曲线的串行闸门", "titleEn": "HBM4, CoWoS, and backside power are becoming serial gates for the AI-server demand curve", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5d7a79c82/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 3, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "美光科技爆表财报对全球先进封装（HBM4/异构集成）景气度的验证与国内产业链的“脱钩与共振”深度...", "summary": "美光科技爆表财报对全球先进封装（HBM4/异构集成）景气度的验证与国内产业链的“脱钩与共振”深度研判", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6e062ebc5961/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "能效压力下的逻辑密度 vs. 功耗权衡：先进封装（CoWoS/HBM）何时触及物理与经济极限", "summary": "能效压力下的逻辑密度 vs. 功耗权衡：先进封装（CoWoS/HBM）何时触及物理与经济极限", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-df0db1e6953c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-25 策略卡：把AI硬件配置从宽基beta再平衡到\"每兆瓦吞吐\"受益者", "summary": "2026-06-25 策略卡：把AI硬件配置从宽基beta再平衡到\"每兆瓦吞吐\"受益者", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-31fabf8fa644/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-06-25 半导体卡：电力成本、并网延迟与AI芯片从极致算力转向每瓦性能", "summary": "2026-06-25 半导体卡：电力成本、并网延迟与AI芯片从极致算力转向每瓦性能", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aaac58c35f12/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "000660.KS", "MU", "AMD", "META", "AVGO", "MSFT", "AMZN", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-cb2ab35c55", "title": "AI 基础设施扩张从规模驱动切换到 TCO、能效和利用率筛选", "titleEn": "AI infrastructure expansion is shifting from scale to TCO, power efficiency, and utilization screening", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-cb2ab35c55/", "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87", "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 58, "supports": 0, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "能源约束下的 GPU 采购：电价波动、BYOP 脆弱性与能效比转向", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-25 (Asia/Singapore) 研究记录索引： 5/8 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师 研究立场： 压力测试 (压力测试电价波动与 BYOP 约束下 GPU/ASIC 采...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f79ea0c8abda/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-25 — 半导体压力测试：AI 芯片能效能否突破电力壁垒？", "summary": "2026-06-25 — 半导体压力测试：AI 芯片能效能否突破电力壁垒？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-04a65e118da4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力价格传导机制变化对AI算力OPEX与Hyperscaler TCO的影响", "summary": "电力价格传导机制变化对AI算力OPEX与Hyperscaler TCO的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fa027b9a96ae/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "能效压力下的逻辑密度 vs. 功耗权衡：先进封装（CoWoS/HBM）何时触及物理与经济极限", "summary": "能效压力下的逻辑密度 vs. 功耗权衡：先进封装（CoWoS/HBM）何时触及物理与经济极限", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-df0db1e6953c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "META", "MU", "MSFT", "AVGO", "VRT", "000660.KS", "DELL" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4074d8a3d2", "title": "碳价、可再生能源与储能 CapEx 正在重塑电力资产回报", "titleEn": "Carbon pricing, renewables, and storage capex are reshaping power-asset returns", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4074d8a3d2/", "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80", "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 42, "supports": 1, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "AI数据中心BYOP与天然气PPA策略札记 — 2026-06-25", "summary": "工作日锚定：2026-06-25。我的结论是对初始问题作综合判断：在SMR尚未形成可融资、可复制、可大规模交付的阶段，AI数据中心会把天然气PPA和企业自备电力(BYOP)作为过渡方案；但这不是简单的“低...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de8f56276c12/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "AI 基础设施供给侧约束：电力、电网接入与硬件供应链的确定性瓶颈分析", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-25 (亚洲/新加坡) 研究记录索引： 3/8 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师 研究立场： 支持 (Support)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-17c218f916de/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI 算力基础设施电力与电网瓶颈：资本开支效率压力测试", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-25 (亚洲/新加坡) 研究记录索引： 4/8 分析师： 能源行业分析师 研究立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test，对电网瓶颈与数据中心经济性的前序假设进行量化压...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-494f2b133d20/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "研究记录: 评估电力供应端容量缺口与配电侧设备瓶颈的错配风险", "summary": "研究记录: 评估电力供应端容量缺口与配电侧设备瓶颈的错配风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7e9194867715/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SMR", "002028.SZ", "GEV", "300750.SZ", "600900.SH", "MSFT", "CEG", "300274.SZ", "META", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-57faae4252", "title": "能源供应约束对AI基础设施资本开支效率的影响：电力缺口能否支撑超大规模厂商的扩容预期？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源供应约束对AI基础设施资本开支效率的影响：电力缺口能否支撑超大规模厂商的扩容预期？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-57faae4252/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-25 公用事业压力测试：电网扩容与并网效率对AI基础设施的物理约束", "summary": "2026-06-25 公用事业压力测试：电网扩容与并网效率对AI基础设施的物理约束", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-27bbf447e84f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI基础设施压力测试：电力成本波动、电网瓶颈与算力利润率压缩", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-25（Asia/Singapore；已用 系统日期锚 在本地 shell 确认返回 2026-06-25）。本报告对前序逻辑做压力测试：能源仍可作为通胀凸性对冲，但同一套能源与电网紧张机制，也会...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7be0cdbaea85/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "关于美国电网并网周期与交期瓶颈对国内电力设备及算力硬件出海链影响的评估报告", "summary": "关于美国电网并网周期与交期瓶颈对国内电力设备及算力硬件出海链影响的评估报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-46ce112fce3c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d1f5e35b43", "title": "2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d1f5e35b43/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "云厂商将加速 GPU→ASIC/推理芯片转型，把能效红利变现以对冲并网延迟与\"暗硅\"风险", "summary": "云厂商将加速 GPU→ASIC/推理芯片转型，把能效红利变现以对冲并网延迟与\"暗硅\"风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fc8718ea244d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力与输变电供应链通胀对AI芯片制造与封装成本的影响分析：资本回报率 (ROI) 与毛利率压力测试报...", "summary": "电力与输变电供应链通胀对AI芯片制造与封装成本的影响分析：资本回报率 (ROI) 与毛利率压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d52de05b4ad6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "能源约束下的 GPU 采购：电价波动、BYOP 脆弱性与能效比转向", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-25 (Asia/Singapore) 研究记录索引： 5/8 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师 研究立场： 压力测试 (压力测试电价波动与 BYOP 约束下 GPU/ASIC 采...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f79ea0c8abda/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-100e81e234", "title": "AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-100e81e234/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "电力成本与电网瓶颈下的半导体产业链经济性重估：电力稀缺如何改写AI芯片能效比需求与先进制程厂资...", "summary": "电力成本与电网瓶颈下的半导体产业链经济性重估：电力稀缺如何改写AI芯片能效比需求与先进制程厂资本开支逻辑", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-200aa70c7c57/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-25 半导体卡：电力成本、并网延迟与AI芯片从极致算力转向每瓦性能", "summary": "2026-06-25 半导体卡：电力成本、并网延迟与AI芯片从极致算力转向每瓦性能", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aaac58c35f12/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-06-25 — 半导体压力测试：AI 芯片能效能否突破电力壁垒？", "summary": "2026-06-25 — 半导体压力测试：AI 芯片能效能否突破电力壁垒？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-04a65e118da4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f3989d02c5", "title": "全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f3989d02c5/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-25 半导体卡：电力成本、并网延迟与AI芯片从极致算力转向每瓦性能", "summary": "2026-06-25 半导体卡：电力成本、并网延迟与AI芯片从极致算力转向每瓦性能", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aaac58c35f12/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "研究研究记录：算力集群规模扩张的物理极限——电网容量与能源供给对 AI 推理/训练成本边界的制约...", "summary": "研究研究记录：算力集群规模扩张的物理极限——电网容量与能源供给对 AI 推理/训练成本边界的制约（日期：2026-06-25）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4a38d9296c3e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力设备供应链瓶颈对AI芯片部署进度的影响评估", "summary": "研究记录 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test) 分析师： 半导体分析师 (Semiconductors Analyst) 锚定工作日期： 2026-06-25", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4dd373309524/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "META", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7f0a75c5f6", "title": "数据中心地产、液冷与水资源正在决定 AI 容量的区域迁移", "titleEn": "Data-center real estate, liquid cooling, and water resources are deciding regional migration of AI capacity", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7f0a75c5f6/", "laneId": "lane_0679894fe06b", "lane": "数据中心地产/液冷", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/data-center-real-estate-and-cooling/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "AI基础设施的物理约束：电力、电网与数据中心产能", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-25。立场：支持。本报告支持上一张卡的主线判断：当GPU与HBM供给逐步释放后，真正的稀缺性会向上转移到可通电的数据中心产能、电网接入、冷却与配电设备。换言之，AI硬件需求...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-794f479b5599/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI算力资本开支下修 vs. 数据中心能源基建结构再分配分析报告", "summary": "分析师： AI基础设施分析师 ( ai-infrastructure-analyst ) 报告日期： 2026-06-25 (亚洲/新加坡) 研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] 研究记录索引： 1/8 当前立场： 初始 (Initi...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4529a72945cc/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-06-25 策略综合：通电MW约束下的AI链与公用事业链配置", "summary": "截至2026-06-25，本报告对前六张卡做综合而非推翻：AI需求没有消失，但稀缺单位已经从“已预订GPU”迁移到“已通电、已冷却、可调试MW”；因此组合应为受电网瓶颈、已签负荷和合同 backlog 保护...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-15d337cd5277/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "VRT", "ETN", "META", "NVDA", "GEV", "MSFT", "DLR", "EQIX", "SMR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9e97140446", "title": "中国电力设备出海进入订单质量与政策筛选期", "titleEn": "Chinese power-equipment exports enter an order-quality and policy filter phase", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9e97140446/", "laneId": "lane_e4b72516d71a", "lane": "中国电力设备出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-power-equipment-exports/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试：欧美电网资本开支拉动 vs. 贸易壁垒对中国电力设备出海链的传导", "summary": "压力测试：欧美电网资本开支拉动 vs. 贸易壁垒对中国电力设备出海链的传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e19a7894abd6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "关于美国电网并网周期与交期瓶颈对国内电力设备及算力硬件出海链影响的评估报告", "summary": "关于美国电网并网周期与交期瓶颈对国内电力设备及算力硬件出海链影响的评估报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-46ce112fce3c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "关键电力设备（变压器／开关／UPS）的交付周期与产能约束评估", "summary": "研究记录 · 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） 分析师： 工业制造分析师（industrials-analyst） · 工作日： 2026-06-25（亚洲／新加坡） 根主题： 碳配额有偿比例提升及 CEA 价格走高情景下...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-17e7b8b9bc0c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "ETN", "GEV", "002270.SZ", "688676.SH", "ABBNY", "600406.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-1aaa752ed4", "title": "AI 电力与电网瓶颈仍是基础设施主线", "titleEn": "AI power and grid bottlenecks remain the infrastructure core", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-1aaa752ed4/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 45, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-25 - 电网硬件瓶颈与 AI 数据中心选址重排", "summary": "截至权威工作日 2026-06-25 （Asia/Singapore），本报告片压力测试研究记录 06 的结论：AI 算力约束已从总能源量转向可送达电力容量，尤其是变压器、开关设备、变电站与并网改造 [自测算: 研究...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ce9eb6c137b8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "关于美国电网并网周期与交期瓶颈对国内电力设备及算力硬件出海链影响的评估报告", "summary": "关于美国电网并网周期与交期瓶颈对国内电力设备及算力硬件出海链影响的评估报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-46ce112fce3c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "压力测试：欧美电网资本开支拉动 vs. 贸易壁垒对中国电力设备出海链的传导", "summary": "压力测试：欧美电网资本开支拉动 vs. 贸易壁垒对中国电力设备出海链的传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e19a7894abd6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "META", "600089.SH", "MSFT", "601179.SH", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4b64fc19f4", "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b64fc19f4/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "USD/JPY 161.51 破位与日元套利交易平仓压力测试评估报告", "summary": "报告日期：2026-06-25（基于系统时钟的权威交易日） - 报告分析师：外汇策略师 ( analyst:fx-strategist ) - 协同来源：主题研究员 · 盘前主题结构观察 (analyst:thematic-researcher:topic pi...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fdfe862af475/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-27 压力测试：USD/JPY 跌破 150 与在岸高杠杆 TMT", "summary": "2026-06-27 压力测试：USD/JPY 跌破 150 与在岸高杠杆 TMT", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d8550c5abe12/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5a0bd732f3", "title": "A股杠铃策略应落地为“红利蓝筹压舱 + 硬科技成长进攻 + 轮动仓位调节”的三层结构，两融是成长端驱动力，ETF赎回和限售股解禁是仓位上限。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股杠铃策略应落地为“红利蓝筹压舱 + 硬科技成长进攻 + 轮动仓位调节”的三层结构，两融是成长端驱动力，ETF赎回和限售股解禁是仓位上限。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5a0bd732f3/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值", "summary": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值 研究院权威工作日期： 2026年6月25日 分析师： 首席策略师 (Expertise: A-share strategy, style rotation, sector a...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-11725382e909/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股策略研究报告：半导体/AI硬件杠杆平仓压力下ETF流动性承接、股指期货基差变动及稳市资金需求测...", "summary": "A股策略研究报告：半导体/AI硬件杠杆平仓压力下ETF流动性承接、股指期货基差变动及稳市资金需求测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c35dcd856961/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "510300.SH", "300750.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-80c15f4a7d", "title": "再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-80c15f4a7d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "极端HIBOR挤仓下CNH利率上限(Cap)与USD/CNH期权的对冲成本侵蚀与策略有效性", "summary": "极端HIBOR挤仓下CNH利率上限(Cap)与USD/CNH期权的对冲成本侵蚀与策略有效性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e8ff945f0d93/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "USD/JPY 161.51 破位与日元套利交易平仓压力测试评估报告", "summary": "报告日期：2026-06-25（基于系统时钟的权威交易日） - 报告分析师：外汇策略师 ( analyst:fx-strategist ) - 协同来源：主题研究员 · 盘前主题结构观察 (analyst:thematic-researcher:topic pi...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fdfe862af475/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bafd2ff8e7", "title": "今日是MSCI半年度重估正式生效日。虽然散户由于昨日创业板+1.96%的V型反弹而呈现极度FOMO，但A股两融余额正高挂于2.9367万…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 今日是MSCI半年度重估正式生效日。虽然散户由于昨日创业板+1.96%的V型反弹而呈现极度FOMO，但A股两融余额正高挂于2.9367万…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bafd2ff8e7/", "laneId": "lane_122bdfde6ea9", "lane": "指数调仓/被动资金事件", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/index-rebalance-and-passive-flow-events/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值", "summary": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值 研究院权威工作日期： 2026年6月25日 分析师： 首席策略师 (Expertise: A-share strategy, style rotation, sector a...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-11725382e909/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股成长板块系统性去杠杆压力测试：现金、短久期国债与指数看跌期权在科创50清算风暴中的防守表现", "summary": "A股成长板块系统性去杠杆压力测试：现金、短久期国债与指数看跌期权在科创50清算风暴中的防守表现", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4ba5a6b4c7e6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "510300.SH", "MCHI", "KWEB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-dfa08317f5", "title": "博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-dfa08317f5/", "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956", "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略研究报告：半导体/AI硬件杠杆平仓压力下ETF流动性承接、股指期货基差变动及稳市资金需求测...", "summary": "A股策略研究报告：半导体/AI硬件杠杆平仓压力下ETF流动性承接、股指期货基差变动及稳市资金需求测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c35dcd856961/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值", "summary": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值 研究院权威工作日期： 2026年6月25日 分析师： 首席策略师 (Expertise: A-share strategy, style rotation, sector a...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-11725382e909/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "300394.SZ", "300502.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d09a741710", "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d09a741710/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "电网侧供应瓶颈对电力设备资本开支、订单能见度与利润率扩张的驱动效应", "summary": "分析师： 能源行业分析师（ energy-analyst ） 报告日期： 2026-06-25（亚洲/新加坡） 研究记录 当前立场： 支持（Support）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-861396b5010c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "关键电力设备（变压器／开关／UPS）的交付周期与产能约束评估", "summary": "研究记录 · 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） 分析师： 工业制造分析师（industrials-analyst） · 工作日： 2026-06-25（亚洲／新加坡） 根主题： 碳配额有偿比例提升及 CEA 价格走高情景下...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-17e7b8b9bc0c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-08b70be7bf", "title": "在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08b70be7bf/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "关于美国电网并网周期与交期瓶颈对国内电力设备及算力硬件出海链影响的评估报告", "summary": "关于美国电网并网周期与交期瓶颈对国内电力设备及算力硬件出海链影响的评估报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-46ce112fce3c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "关键电力设备（变压器／开关／UPS）的交付周期与产能约束评估", "summary": "研究记录 · 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） 分析师： 工业制造分析师（industrials-analyst） · 工作日： 2026-06-25（亚洲／新加坡） 根主题： 碳配额有偿比例提升及 CEA 价格走高情景下...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-17e7b8b9bc0c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4ad776c10c", "title": "地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4ad776c10c/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "大宗商品供应压力向全球通胀预期与利率路径的宏观传导：研究前序研究片研究报告", "summary": "大宗商品供应压力向全球通胀预期与利率路径的宏观传导：研究前序研究片研究报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8f60789cc420/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电费粘性与美联储反应函数：长期中性利率（r ）应如何重新定价", "summary": "日期：2026年6月25日 作者： 全球宏观分析师（global-macro） research reference： [source-id-redacted] session-route： [source-id-redacted] card-in...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a3cd998eee32/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-db4939d8d8", "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db4939d8d8/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI数据中心BYOP与天然气PPA策略札记 — 2026-06-25", "summary": "工作日锚定：2026-06-25。我的结论是对初始问题作综合判断：在SMR尚未形成可融资、可复制、可大规模交付的阶段，AI数据中心会把天然气PPA和企业自备电力(BYOP)作为过渡方案；但这不是简单的“低...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de8f56276c12/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "AI数据中心电力接入瓶颈与配电设备资本开支 - 2026-06-25", "summary": "截至2026-06-25，本报告片支持前序链条：AI数据中心在2030年前大概率不会在中国造成全国性电力短缺，但局部firm MW接入已经成为Hyperscaler选址的硬约束，并直接拉动变压器、中压开关、UPS/HVDC...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-404efaacd739/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "CEG", "VST", "ETN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-27c1e713e6", "title": "日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-27c1e713e6/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "USD/JPY 161.51 破位与日元套利交易平仓压力测试评估报告", "summary": "报告日期：2026-06-25（基于系统时钟的权威交易日） - 报告分析师：外汇策略师 ( analyst:fx-strategist ) - 协同来源：主题研究员 · 盘前主题结构观察 (analyst:thematic-researcher:topic pi...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fdfe862af475/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-27 压力测试：USD/JPY 跌破 150 与在岸高杠杆 TMT", "summary": "2026-06-27 压力测试：USD/JPY 跌破 150 与在岸高杠杆 TMT", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d8550c5abe12/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0bad2eebc1", "title": "北美大型云厂商因53个月并网等待和PJM容量价格触及上限，面临80-290bn的Capex下修延期压力，这如何重塑全球AI算力及AS…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 北美大型云厂商因53个月并网等待和PJM容量价格触及上限，面临80-290bn的Capex下修延期压力，这如何重塑全球AI算力及AS…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0bad2eebc1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "云厂商将加速 GPU→ASIC/推理芯片转型，把能效红利变现以对冲并网延迟与\"暗硅\"风险", "summary": "云厂商将加速 GPU→ASIC/推理芯片转型，把能效红利变现以对冲并网延迟与\"暗硅\"风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fc8718ea244d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-25 半导体卡：电力成本、并网延迟与AI芯片从极致算力转向每瓦性能", "summary": "2026-06-25 半导体卡：电力成本、并网延迟与AI芯片从极致算力转向每瓦性能", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aaac58c35f12/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "ETN", "CEG", "601179.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-820459973e", "title": "在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-820459973e/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "电网侧容量扩容与变压器产能瓶颈的压力测试报告", "summary": "分析师： 公用事业分析师 ( utilities-analyst ) 报告日期： 2026-06-25 (亚洲/新加坡) 研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] 研究记录索引： 2/8 当前立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50ae1e1ecb9d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力电子化趋势下功率半导体(SiC)的供应链弹性与国产化机遇分析报告", "summary": "分析师： 半导体分析师 ( semiconductors-analyst ) 报告日期： 2026-06-25 (亚洲/新加坡) 研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] 研究记录索引： 4/8 当前立场： 支持 (Support Stan...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b45a943ce2fb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "601179.SH", "600089.SH", "CEG", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d0faeae7f0", "title": "NAND价格与产品组合驱动SanDisk盈利弹性", "titleEn": "NAND pricing and mix drive SanDisk earnings leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d0faeae7f0/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 72, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-25 策略卡：把AI硬件配置从宽基beta再平衡到\"每兆瓦吞吐\"受益者", "summary": "2026-06-25 策略卡：把AI硬件配置从宽基beta再平衡到\"每兆瓦吞吐\"受益者", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-31fabf8fa644/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "美光科技爆表财报对全球先进封装（HBM4/异构集成）景气度的验证与国内产业链的“脱钩与共振”深度...", "summary": "美光科技爆表财报对全球先进封装（HBM4/异构集成）景气度的验证与国内产业链的“脱钩与共振”深度研判", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6e062ebc5961/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS", "META", "AMD" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0", "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层", "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "云厂商将加速 GPU→ASIC/推理芯片转型，把能效红利变现以对冲并网延迟与\"暗硅\"风险", "summary": "云厂商将加速 GPU→ASIC/推理芯片转型，把能效红利变现以对冲并网延迟与\"暗硅\"风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fc8718ea244d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-25 - AI电力短缺：能源瓶颈如何重定价GPU集群部署", "summary": "2026-06-25 - AI电力短缺：能源瓶颈如何重定价GPU集群部署", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-63985b256347/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "TSM", "AVGO", "AAPL", "TSLA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4749f7193b", "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4749f7193b/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "电力、电网与冷却能否承载AI算力？一次公用事业压力测试", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-25。分析师：utilities-analyst。立场：压力测试（stress-test）。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1200a1216800/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "关于美国电网并网周期与交期瓶颈对国内电力设备及算力硬件出海链影响的评估报告", "summary": "关于美国电网并网周期与交期瓶颈对国内电力设备及算力硬件出海链影响的评估报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-46ce112fce3c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "601985.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a119a01ce4", "title": "评估AI算力能耗增长对电力与电网瓶颈的影响，以及能源成本压力如何传导至下游CXO产业链。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 评估AI算力能耗增长对电力与电网瓶颈的影响，以及能源成本压力如何传导至下游CXO产业链。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a119a01ce4/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI基础设施压力测试：电力成本波动、电网瓶颈与算力利润率压缩", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-25（Asia/Singapore；已用 系统日期锚 在本地 shell 确认返回 2026-06-25）。本报告对前序逻辑做压力测试：能源仍可作为通胀凸性对冲，但同一套能源与电网紧张机制，也会...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7be0cdbaea85/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "关于美国电网并网周期与交期瓶颈对国内电力设备及算力硬件出海链影响的评估报告", "summary": "关于美国电网并网周期与交期瓶颈对国内电力设备及算力硬件出海链影响的评估报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-46ce112fce3c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "002028.SZ", "CEG", "601179.SH", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8bbbcdf5a4", "title": "GPU、HBM 与先进封装决定 AI 资本开支供给节奏", "titleEn": "GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging shape the AI capex supply cycle", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8bbbcdf5a4/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "云厂商将加速 GPU→ASIC/推理芯片转型，把能效红利变现以对冲并网延迟与\"暗硅\"风险", "summary": "云厂商将加速 GPU→ASIC/推理芯片转型，把能效红利变现以对冲并网延迟与\"暗硅\"风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fc8718ea244d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-25 半导体卡：电力成本、并网延迟与AI芯片从极致算力转向每瓦性能", "summary": "2026-06-25 半导体卡：电力成本、并网延迟与AI芯片从极致算力转向每瓦性能", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aaac58c35f12/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "META", "AMD", "AVGO", "MU", "MSFT", "000660.KS", "GOOGL", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3986819dc0", "title": "A 股半导体的核心风险从订单验证转向 A/H 溢价、两融与负 Gamma", "titleEn": "A-share semiconductor risk is shifting from order proof to A/H premium, margin financing, and negative gamma", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3986819dc0/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 61, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "脱钩验证：全球半导体设备周期 vs. A股AI基础设施流动性风险", "summary": "分析日期： 2026-06-25（亚洲/新加坡） 作者： 半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） 研究research note 立场： 压力测试（在全球Hyperscaler CapEx强劲背景下，检验A股半导体 上游 的订单...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8257b2e487c2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值", "summary": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值 研究院权威工作日期： 2026年6月25日 分析师： 首席策略师 (Expertise: A-share strategy, style rotation, sector a...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-11725382e909/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688981.SH", "688256.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "600900.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH", "300308.SZ", "002371.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-241377c8be", "title": "显示材料改善需由利润率与现金流共同确认", "titleEn": "Display-material recovery requires joint margin and cash-flow confirmation", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-241377c8be/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 59, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-25 AI、电力与高利率：跨行业瓶颈资产的风险预算再分配", "summary": "2026-06-25 AI、电力与高利率：跨行业瓶颈资产的风险预算再分配", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ae636833dc8e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力与输变电供应链通胀对AI芯片制造与封装成本的影响分析：资本回报率 (ROI) 与毛利率压力测试报...", "summary": "电力与输变电供应链通胀对AI芯片制造与封装成本的影响分析：资本回报率 (ROI) 与毛利率压力测试报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d52de05b4ad6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "ASML", "000660.KS", "MU", "002916.SZ", "600552.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-075017003b", "title": "AI 资本开支通过能源、设备和利率进入通胀定价", "titleEn": "AI capex enters inflation pricing through energy, equipment, and rates", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-075017003b/", "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08", "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 55, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-25 能源资产作为通胀再加速对冲工具的有效性：高利率持久化情形下的检验", "summary": "2026-06-25 能源资产作为通胀再加速对冲工具的有效性：高利率持久化情形下的检验", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5e7a0a0c9f03/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "霍尔木兹降温 + May PCE 双重挤压下的通胀预期重定价：流动性与期限溢价扰动评估", "summary": "霍尔木兹降温 + May PCE 双重挤压下的通胀预期重定价：流动性与期限溢价扰动评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7123c11cc4b2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "XLE", "TLT", "XLU", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-42faeae623", "title": "CPO、光互联与铜连接决定 AI 集群内部租金迁移", "titleEn": "CPO, optical interconnect, and copper links define rent migration inside AI clusters", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-42faeae623/", "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956", "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 55, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "云厂商将加速 GPU→ASIC/推理芯片转型，把能效红利变现以对冲并网延迟与\"暗硅\"风险", "summary": "云厂商将加速 GPU→ASIC/推理芯片转型，把能效红利变现以对冲并网延迟与\"暗硅\"风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fc8718ea244d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI 基础设施供给侧约束：电力、电网接入与硬件供应链的确定性瓶颈分析", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-25 (亚洲/新加坡) 研究记录索引： 3/8 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师 研究立场： 支持 (Support)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-17c218f916de/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "NVDA", "AVGO", "META", "COHR", "LITE", "300394.SZ", "MRVL", "TSM", "MSFT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3d421524cd", "title": "油价地缘底线决定再通胀与降息交易的安全边际", "titleEn": "The geopolitical oil floor defines the margin of safety for disinflation and rate-cut trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3d421524cd/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 50, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "霍尔木兹海峡复航与美伊外交谈判进展下全球通胀与欧美央行降息路径评估报告", "summary": "业务流程： 能源行业分析师 · 油价监控 (数据中心化) (analyst:energy-analyst:oil price monitor api) 业务关联： 霍尔木兹海峡复航与原油地缘溢价消退 (run: 93f35b13-6885-4059-a19d-ab78fb...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e117b48d449c/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "全球宏观研究报告：原油回落——战术性通胀缓释与结构性库存脆弱的博弈", "summary": "1. 执行摘要 截至 2026-06-25，随着 2026 年 6 月 17 日美国和伊朗签署谅解备忘录（MoU）并逐步恢复霍尔木兹海峡的航运通畅 [S2]，Brent 原油已从 2026 年初地缘政治危机期间的 126.00 美元/桶...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-27f0daaa076f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CME", "CVX", "XOM", "600938.SH", "600900.SH", "0857.HK", "COP", "601857.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-59f298ff36", "title": "在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-59f298ff36/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 84, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值", "summary": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值 研究院权威工作日期： 2026年6月25日 分析师： 首席策略师 (Expertise: A-share strategy, style rotation, sector a...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-11725382e909/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-813fa71c15", "title": "科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-813fa71c15/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 84, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值", "summary": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值 研究院权威工作日期： 2026年6月25日 分析师： 首席策略师 (Expertise: A-share strategy, style rotation, sector a...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-11725382e909/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688008.SH", "688041.SH", "688012.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bb46b0c3de", "title": "USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bb46b0c3de/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "USD/JPY 161.51 破位与日元套利交易平仓压力测试评估报告", "summary": "报告日期：2026-06-25（基于系统时钟的权威交易日） - 报告分析师：外汇策略师 ( analyst:fx-strategist ) - 协同来源：主题研究员 · 盘前主题结构观察 (analyst:thematic-researcher:topic pi...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fdfe862af475/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4f541b33ff", "title": "美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f541b33ff/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "USD/JPY 161.51 破位与日元套利交易平仓压力测试评估报告", "summary": "报告日期：2026-06-25（基于系统时钟的权威交易日） - 报告分析师：外汇策略师 ( analyst:fx-strategist ) - 协同来源：主题研究员 · 盘前主题结构观察 (analyst:thematic-researcher:topic pi...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fdfe862af475/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d03c2555a8", "title": "美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d03c2555a8/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "材料行业研究报告：证伪“假性宽松”——需求收缩与产能过剩确立原油价格的“实性宽松”", "summary": "材料行业研究报告：证伪“假性宽松”——需求收缩与产能过剩确立原油价格的“实性宽松”", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d962090635bf/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-58f268edf9", "title": "隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-58f268edf9/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值", "summary": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值 研究院权威工作日期： 2026年6月25日 分析师： 首席策略师 (Expertise: A-share strategy, style rotation, sector a...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-11725382e909/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e4e956cd41", "title": "通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e4e956cd41/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "USD/JPY 161.51 破位与日元套利交易平仓压力测试评估报告", "summary": "报告日期：2026-06-25（基于系统时钟的权威交易日） - 报告分析师：外汇策略师 ( analyst:fx-strategist ) - 协同来源：主题研究员 · 盘前主题结构观察 (analyst:thematic-researcher:topic pi...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fdfe862af475/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-950a54ea98", "title": "保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-950a54ea98/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "USD/JPY 161.51 破位与日元套利交易平仓压力测试评估报告", "summary": "报告日期：2026-06-25（基于系统时钟的权威交易日） - 报告分析师：外汇策略师 ( analyst:fx-strategist ) - 协同来源：主题研究员 · 盘前主题结构观察 (analyst:thematic-researcher:topic pi...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fdfe862af475/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a4bf9a5c22", "title": "在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a4bf9a5c22/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值", "summary": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值 研究院权威工作日期： 2026年6月25日 分析师： 首席策略师 (Expertise: A-share strategy, style rotation, sector a...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-11725382e909/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688012.SH", "688041.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0e8748c14f", "title": "科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e8748c14f/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值", "summary": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值 研究院权威工作日期： 2026年6月25日 分析师： 首席策略师 (Expertise: A-share strategy, style rotation, sector a...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-11725382e909/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH", "688012.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e58a9e8746", "title": "日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e58a9e8746/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "USD/JPY 161.51 破位与日元套利交易平仓压力测试评估报告", "summary": "报告日期：2026-06-25（基于系统时钟的权威交易日） - 报告分析师：外汇策略师 ( analyst:fx-strategist ) - 协同来源：主题研究员 · 盘前主题结构观察 (analyst:thematic-researcher:topic pi...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fdfe862af475/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b6e4c7b469", "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b6e4c7b469/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "关于美国电网并网周期与交期瓶颈对国内电力设备及算力硬件出海链影响的评估报告", "summary": "关于美国电网并网周期与交期瓶颈对国内电力设备及算力硬件出海链影响的评估报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-46ce112fce3c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d74ae315e8", "title": "当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d74ae315e8/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "USD/JPY 161.51 破位与日元套利交易平仓压力测试评估报告", "summary": "报告日期：2026-06-25（基于系统时钟的权威交易日） - 报告分析师：外汇策略师 ( analyst:fx-strategist ) - 协同来源：主题研究员 · 盘前主题结构观察 (analyst:thematic-researcher:topic pi...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fdfe862af475/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-24cd0b5ff9", "title": "在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-24cd0b5ff9/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-25 - 半导体压力测试：电力设备瓶颈主要把加速器需求后移，而不是直接消灭", "summary": "2026-06-25 - 半导体压力测试：电力设备瓶颈主要把加速器需求后移，而不是直接消灭", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-424fa9c4dfb4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "GOOGL", "AMZN", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5c45703323", "title": "AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5c45703323/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-25压力测试：能源通胀、AI基础设施与Hyperscaler Capex", "summary": "2026-06-25压力测试：能源通胀、AI基础设施与Hyperscaler Capex", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-15bba5629ce7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "NVDA", "AMD", "MU", "AVGO", "TSM", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0011ad682c", "title": "美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0011ad682c/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "USD/JPY 161.51 破位与日元套利交易平仓压力测试评估报告", "summary": "报告日期：2026-06-25（基于系统时钟的权威交易日） - 报告分析师：外汇策略师 ( analyst:fx-strategist ) - 协同来源：主题研究员 · 盘前主题结构观察 (analyst:thematic-researcher:topic pi...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fdfe862af475/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "JPM", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-29b1c0d6c7", "title": "日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-29b1c0d6c7/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "USD/JPY 161.51 破位与日元套利交易平仓压力测试评估报告", "summary": "报告日期：2026-06-25（基于系统时钟的权威交易日） - 报告分析师：外汇策略师 ( analyst:fx-strategist ) - 协同来源：主题研究员 · 盘前主题结构观察 (analyst:thematic-researcher:topic pi...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fdfe862af475/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2e367ef854", "title": "美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2e367ef854/", "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08", "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "霍尔木兹降温 + May PCE 双重挤压下的通胀预期重定价：流动性与期限溢价扰动评估", "summary": "霍尔木兹降温 + May PCE 双重挤压下的通胀预期重定价：流动性与期限溢价扰动评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7123c11cc4b2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "XLE", "XLU", "TLT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c951442d7f", "title": "日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c951442d7f/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "USD/JPY 161.51 破位与日元套利交易平仓压力测试评估报告", "summary": "报告日期：2026-06-25（基于系统时钟的权威交易日） - 报告分析师：外汇策略师 ( analyst:fx-strategist ) - 协同来源：主题研究员 · 盘前主题结构观察 (analyst:thematic-researcher:topic pi...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fdfe862af475/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-fe66302bd9", "title": "美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'静默'转向与油价供给回落对中国货币政策与人民币汇率的传导效应", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fe66302bd9/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "极端HIBOR挤仓下CNH利率上限(Cap)与USD/CNH期权的对冲成本侵蚀与策略有效性", "summary": "极端HIBOR挤仓下CNH利率上限(Cap)与USD/CNH期权的对冲成本侵蚀与策略有效性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e8ff945f0d93/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-859ab241bf", "title": "依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-859ab241bf/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "脱钩验证：全球半导体设备周期 vs. A股AI基础设施流动性风险", "summary": "分析日期： 2026-06-25（亚洲/新加坡） 作者： 半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） 研究research note 立场： 压力测试（在全球Hyperscaler CapEx强劲背景下，检验A股半导体 上游 的订单...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8257b2e487c2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "ASML", "688012.SH", "000660.KS", "MU", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-cf6925b02f", "title": "232/301双轨壁垒近端收紧回路、延长轨道时间溢价至2028–2029，但通过抬高美国电气化成本加速AI资本开支ROI清算——约束正从…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 232/301双轨壁垒近端收紧回路、延长轨道时间溢价至2028–2029，但通过抬高美国电气化成本加速AI资本开支ROI清算——约束正从…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-cf6925b02f/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "评估新型电力系统建设对AI算力中心能源成本与电网扩容压力的传导效应", "summary": "日期 : 2026-06-25 (Asia/Singapore) 分析师 : AI基础设施分析师 (ai-infrastructure-analyst) 研究线程标识 : [source-id-redacted] Stance : 压力测试 (Stress-test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bc23b7783880/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "GEV", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "ETN", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-91cfb3e0f8", "title": "外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-91cfb3e0f8/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "券商两融信用风险敞口与大股东质押尾部违约压力测试", "summary": "券商两融信用风险敞口与大股东质押尾部违约压力测试 研究会话研究记录 06 分析师 ID: chief-risk（首席风控官） 报告权威日期：2026-06-25（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：压力测试（STRESS-TEST）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e751af83875e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "KRE", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2ee6c1cf01", "title": "39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2ee6c1cf01/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "极端HIBOR挤仓下CNH利率上限(Cap)与USD/CNH期权的对冲成本侵蚀与策略有效性", "summary": "极端HIBOR挤仓下CNH利率上限(Cap)与USD/CNH期权的对冲成本侵蚀与策略有效性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e8ff945f0d93/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3156277f22", "title": "哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3156277f22/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "极端HIBOR挤仓下CNH利率上限(Cap)与USD/CNH期权的对冲成本侵蚀与策略有效性", "summary": "极端HIBOR挤仓下CNH利率上限(Cap)与USD/CNH期权的对冲成本侵蚀与策略有效性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e8ff945f0d93/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a2fc614c1", "title": "在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a2fc614c1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-25 半导体卡：电力成本、并网延迟与AI芯片从极致算力转向每瓦性能", "summary": "2026-06-25 半导体卡：电力成本、并网延迟与AI芯片从极致算力转向每瓦性能", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aaac58c35f12/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "GEV", "ETN", "CEG", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-db003202fc", "title": "国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db003202fc/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "极端HIBOR挤仓下CNH利率上限(Cap)与USD/CNH期权的对冲成本侵蚀与策略有效性", "summary": "极端HIBOR挤仓下CNH利率上限(Cap)与USD/CNH期权的对冲成本侵蚀与策略有效性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e8ff945f0d93/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d98ced0974", "title": "电力瓶颈会重排AI算力项目顺序，但不会让2025-2026年全球AI集群建设同步停摆。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力瓶颈会重排AI算力项目顺序，但不会让2025-2026年全球AI集群建设同步停摆。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d98ced0974/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI基础设施压力测试：电力成本波动、电网瓶颈与算力利润率压缩", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-25（Asia/Singapore；已用 系统日期锚 在本地 shell 确认返回 2026-06-25）。本报告对前序逻辑做压力测试：能源仍可作为通胀凸性对冲，但同一套能源与电网紧张机制，也会...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7be0cdbaea85/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "601179.SH", "ETN", "600089.SH", "VST", "CEG" ] }, { "id": "thesis-94e0c46a69", "title": "USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-94e0c46a69/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "极端HIBOR挤仓下CNH利率上限(Cap)与USD/CNH期权的对冲成本侵蚀与策略有效性", "summary": "极端HIBOR挤仓下CNH利率上限(Cap)与USD/CNH期权的对冲成本侵蚀与策略有效性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e8ff945f0d93/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f9ce8d294d", "title": "人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f9ce8d294d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "极端HIBOR挤仓下CNH利率上限(Cap)与USD/CNH期权的对冲成本侵蚀与策略有效性", "summary": "极端HIBOR挤仓下CNH利率上限(Cap)与USD/CNH期权的对冲成本侵蚀与策略有效性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e8ff945f0d93/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-662985737d", "title": "在12% HIBOR极端挤空及离岸流动性收紧传导下，将USD/CNH期权套保释放的5374万人民币全额转配至离岸存款以锁定12%高息Ca…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在12% HIBOR极端挤空及离岸流动性收紧传导下，将USD/CNH期权套保释放的5374万人民币全额转配至离岸存款以锁定12%高息Ca…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-662985737d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "极端HIBOR挤仓下CNH利率上限(Cap)与USD/CNH期权的对冲成本侵蚀与策略有效性", "summary": "极端HIBOR挤仓下CNH利率上限(Cap)与USD/CNH期权的对冲成本侵蚀与策略有效性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e8ff945f0d93/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-da665e3ee7", "title": "在2026-06-26，中国约1.73%的国债收益率托底机制在Warsh强美元政策与三季度2-5万亿地方债/国债供给冲击下不可持续，国债…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-26，中国约1.73%的国债收益率托底机制在Warsh强美元政策与三季度2-5万亿地方债/国债供给冲击下不可持续，国债…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-da665e3ee7/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "极端HIBOR挤仓下CNH利率上限(Cap)与USD/CNH期权的对冲成本侵蚀与策略有效性", "summary": "极端HIBOR挤仓下CNH利率上限(Cap)与USD/CNH期权的对冲成本侵蚀与策略有效性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e8ff945f0d93/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7b4a91628c", "title": "掉期成本翻正使 USD/CNH 远期曲线倒挂，远期由套保工具变为贬值信号；越过 3M CNH HIBOR ≈ 5.3% 拐点后，央行流动…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 掉期成本翻正使 USD/CNH 远期曲线倒挂，远期由套保工具变为贬值信号；越过 3M CNH HIBOR ≈ 5.3% 拐点后，央行流动…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7b4a91628c/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "极端HIBOR挤仓下CNH利率上限(Cap)与USD/CNH期权的对冲成本侵蚀与策略有效性", "summary": "极端HIBOR挤仓下CNH利率上限(Cap)与USD/CNH期权的对冲成本侵蚀与策略有效性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e8ff945f0d93/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-87af28db3e", "title": "宇航电源份额与卫星交付驱动电科蓝天兑现", "titleEn": "Space-Power Share and Satellite Deliveries Drive CETC Solar Energy Monetization", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-87af28db3e/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 74, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "空间经济：从\"SpaceX 上市代理\"进入\"融资纪律测试\"——拥挤的代理交易是否已成为主要风险？", "summary": "空间经济：从\"SpaceX 上市代理\"进入\"融资纪律测试\"——拥挤的代理交易是否已成为主要风险？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de1cdd993226/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "LUNR", "IRDM", "LMT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-10f0672291", "title": "科创50单日+8.41%后，团队应把硬科技升为中期主线，还是在两融、广度、ETF申赎确认前按拥挤反弹处理？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50单日+8.41%后，团队应把硬科技升为中期主线，还是在两融、广度、ETF申赎确认前按拥挤反弹处理？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-10f0672291/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 71, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值", "summary": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值 研究院权威工作日期： 2026年6月25日 分析师： 首席策略师 (Expertise: A-share strategy, style rotation, sector a...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-11725382e909/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688008.SH", "688012.SH", "688041.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b13c7cf092", "title": "高纯石英材料受益于先进封装扩产，但兑现取决于认证与产品结构", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz can benefit from advanced-packaging expansion, conditional on qualification and mix", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13c7cf092/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "美光科技爆表财报对全球先进封装（HBM4/异构集成）景气度的验证与国内产业链的“脱钩与共振”深度...", "summary": "美光科技爆表财报对全球先进封装（HBM4/异构集成）景气度的验证与国内产业链的“脱钩与共振”深度研判", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6e062ebc5961/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "MU", "000660.KS", "ASML", "688012.SH", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2a12467f9b", "title": "卫星电源壁垒需由发射节奏和单星价值量持续验证", "titleEn": "Satellite-power barriers require continued validation through launch cadence and content per spacecraft", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2a12467f9b/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "空间经济：从\"SpaceX 上市代理\"进入\"融资纪律测试\"——拥挤的代理交易是否已成为主要风险？", "summary": "空间经济：从\"SpaceX 上市代理\"进入\"融资纪律测试\"——拥挤的代理交易是否已成为主要风险？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de1cdd993226/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "600118.SH", "IRDM", "RDW", "LUNR", "LMT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2fe5298427", "title": "Sivers (SIVE:STO) 概念被供应链证伪，而国内电子板块融资余额高达5608亿元，四大半导体龙头两融保证金缺口达93.81亿…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Sivers (SIVE:STO) 概念被供应链证伪，而国内电子板块融资余额高达5608亿元，四大半导体龙头两融保证金缺口达93.81亿…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2fe5298427/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 69, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值", "summary": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值 研究院权威工作日期： 2026年6月25日 分析师： 首席策略师 (Expertise: A-share strategy, style rotation, sector a...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-11725382e909/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-34ed317472", "title": "A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-34ed317472/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值", "summary": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值 研究院权威工作日期： 2026年6月25日 分析师： 首席策略师 (Expertise: A-share strategy, style rotation, sector a...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-11725382e909/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "510300.SH", "512100.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0346c87b0c", "title": "当前AI算力扩容的主瓶颈是电力和电网交付第一、芯片第二；没有已通电MW背书的纸面算力应被折价。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当前AI算力扩容的主瓶颈是电力和电网交付第一、芯片第二；没有已通电MW背书的纸面算力应被折价。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0346c87b0c/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "关于美国电网并网周期与交期瓶颈对国内电力设备及算力硬件出海链影响的评估报告", "summary": "关于美国电网并网周期与交期瓶颈对国内电力设备及算力硬件出海链影响的评估报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-46ce112fce3c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "CEG", "VST", "601985.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-40b8638803", "title": "全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-40b8638803/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "能效压力下的逻辑密度 vs. 功耗权衡：先进封装（CoWoS/HBM）何时触及物理与经济极限", "summary": "能效压力下的逻辑密度 vs. 功耗权衡：先进封装（CoWoS/HBM）何时触及物理与经济极限", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-df0db1e6953c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "000660.KS", "MU", "688012.SH", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3f6ee4feb9", "title": "核电容量机制可改善现金流，但资本开支约束仍在", "titleEn": "Nuclear capacity mechanisms may improve cash flow, but capex remains binding", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3f6ee4feb9/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-25 - Hyperscaler BTM能源：规模、进度与AI电力缺口缓解能力", "summary": "2026-06-25 - Hyperscaler BTM能源：规模、进度与AI电力缺口缓解能力", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de86daa73c92/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "CEG", "AEP", "600025.SH", "DUK", "1816.HK", "NEE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-df608ec2a1", "title": "AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-df608ec2a1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "关于美国电网并网周期与交期瓶颈对国内电力设备及算力硬件出海链影响的评估报告", "summary": "关于美国电网并网周期与交期瓶颈对国内电力设备及算力硬件出海链影响的评估报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-46ce112fce3c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "GEV", "600089.SH", "ETN", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c2eb2a0b9d", "title": "AI 租赁营收的兑现并非取决于芯片购买量，而是取决于长达 2-4 年的电力交付周期，物理稀缺性正成为限制营收增速的硬顶。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI 租赁营收的兑现并非取决于芯片购买量，而是取决于长达 2-4 年的电力交付周期，物理稀缺性正成为限制营收增速的硬顶。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c2eb2a0b9d/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "关于美国电网并网周期与交期瓶颈对国内电力设备及算力硬件出海链影响的评估报告", "summary": "关于美国电网并网周期与交期瓶颈对国内电力设备及算力硬件出海链影响的评估报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-46ce112fce3c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "601179.SH", "600089.SH", "CEG", "688676.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4e383ee09c", "title": "2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4e383ee09c/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "Hyperscaler Capex扩张节奏与AI硬件配置上限的匹配性压力测试", "summary": "Hyperscaler Capex扩张节奏与AI硬件配置上限的匹配性压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3d9345a21e61/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-025e4c0d2d", "title": "复合材料业务修复向利润增长传导", "titleEn": "Composite-Materials Recovery Transmits into Earnings Growth", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-025e4c0d2d/", "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80", "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "大宗商品供应压力向全球通胀预期与利率路径的宏观传导：研究前序研究片研究报告", "summary": "大宗商品供应压力向全球通胀预期与利率路径的宏观传导：研究前序研究片研究报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8f60789cc420/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300274.SZ", "002028.SZ", "300750.SZ", "002080.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4b3b37e207", "title": "散户情绪与北向资金背离是 A 股风险偏好的关键温度计", "titleEn": "Retail sentiment versus northbound flow divergence is the key A-share risk thermometer", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b3b37e207/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值", "summary": "A股策略会商报告：两融出清、国家队ETF托底与科创50看跌期权仓位的动态阈值 研究院权威工作日期： 2026年6月25日 分析师： 首席策略师 (Expertise: A-share strategy, style rotation, sector a...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-11725382e909/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "300308.SZ", "300750.SZ", "600519.SH", "159915.SZ", "510300.SH", "688256.SH", "600900.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a6599a3f5", "title": "新一代信息技术国产替代要从信创叙事进入算力、软件与安全订单验证", "titleEn": "Domestic IT substitution must move from policy narrative to compute, software, and security order proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a6599a3f5/", "laneId": "lane_e4f90acbf804", "lane": "信创/国产 IT 栈", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/domestic-it-substitution-stack/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "迁移的稀缺租金跨资产组合 - 2026-06-25", "summary": "截至2026-06-25 [自测算: 研究所工作日]，我的判断是对前序链条作综合而非重复：稀缺租金已经从霍尔木兹能源中断风险，迁移到决定AI电力需求能否变成有效算力的硬件与效率咽喉。组合答案不是简...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5eff32a16ece/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "300308.SZ", "NVDA", "000977.SZ", "688008.SH", "688012.SH", "688111.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-6f42e0fe6e", "title": "稀土、铜铝与关键材料正在成为 AI 与新能源共用的供给约束", "titleEn": "Rare earths, copper, aluminum, and key materials are becoming shared supply constraints for AI and energy transition", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6f42e0fe6e/", "laneId": "lane_8c4a3526fcca", "lane": "关键材料/稀土铜铝", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/critical-materials-rare-earths-copper-and-aluminum/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 58, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "主要大宗商品价格走势及供需变化报告 (2026-06-25)", "summary": "报告日期：2026年6月25日 分析师席位：材料行业分析师 (materials-analyst) 覆盖品种：铜（Cu）、铝（Al）、锂（Li，碳酸锂）、钢（螺纹钢） 数据截止：2026年6月24日收盘/现货均价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cf4773ddf9d2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "FCX", "GEV", "000831.SZ", "SCCO", "ETN", "MP", "TECK", "600111.SH", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-603a5f7966", "title": "A 股硬科技与科创50的复苏需要订单、融资盘和指数结构共振", "titleEn": "A-share hard tech and STAR50 recovery needs orders, margin positioning, and index structure to align", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-603a5f7966/", "laneId": "lane_4cc1e74d8e5f", "lane": "A股硬科技/科创50", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-hard-tech-and-star50/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 56, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "§1 THESIS", "summary": "author: morning-brief-editor as of: 2026-06-25 market window: pre-open market: AH tickers: [600584.SH, 603986.SH, 00981.HK, 01347.HK, 600900.SH, 6019…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cc7a6c43c7d6/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "600900.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH", "300394.SZ", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-08dd090dc9", "title": "公用事业从防御红利切换到电网扩容、容量费与信用再定价", "titleEn": "Utilities are shifting from defensive dividends to grid expansion, capacity fees, and credit repricing", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08dd090dc9/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-25 — Hyperscaler Behind-the-Meter自建能源与受监管公用事业信用风险", "summary": "2026-06-25 — Hyperscaler Behind-the-Meter自建能源与受监管公用事业信用风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8282fe9b5d57/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "AEP", "600900.SH", "CEG", "DUK", "VST", "XLU", "META", "NEE", "SMR", "GEV" ] }, { "id": "thesis-66eb42380e", "title": "海洋经济的政策催化需要落到船舶订单、海工装备与海上资源现金流", "titleEn": "Marine-economy policy support must convert into ship orders, offshore equipment, and offshore-resource cash flow", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-66eb42380e/", "laneId": "lane_f8b4918fe5b3", "lane": "海洋经济/船舶海工", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/marine-economy-shipbuilding-and-offshore-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "霍尔木兹海峡复航与美伊外交谈判进展下全球通胀与欧美央行降息路径评估报告", "summary": "业务流程： 能源行业分析师 · 油价监控 (数据中心化) (analyst:energy-analyst:oil price monitor api) 业务关联： 霍尔木兹海峡复航与原油地缘溢价消退 (run: 93f35b13-6885-4059-a19d-ab78fb...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e117b48d449c/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601890.SH", "600150.SH", "600938.SH", "600583.SH", "603727.SH", "000039.SZ", "0883.HK", "300589.SZ", "601919.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-026aa1679b", "title": "云厂商自发电正在把 AI 交付风险转移到核电、燃气、电网与公用事业信用", "titleEn": "Cloud self-generation is shifting AI delivery risk into nuclear, gas, grid assets, and utility credit", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-026aa1679b/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI数据中心BYOP与天然气PPA策略札记 — 2026-06-25", "summary": "工作日锚定：2026-06-25。我的结论是对初始问题作综合判断：在SMR尚未形成可融资、可复制、可大规模交付的阶段，AI数据中心会把天然气PPA和企业自备电力(BYOP)作为过渡方案；但这不是简单的“低...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de8f56276c12/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "VST", "CEG", "GEV", "SMR", "META", "ETN", "MSFT", "AMZN", "AEP", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2ec6b9d3ee", "title": "卫星直连与商业航天从概念弹性进入部署兑现期", "titleEn": "Direct-to-device satellite and commercial space are moving from concept beta to deployment proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2ec6b9d3ee/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 46, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "空间经济：从\"SpaceX 上市代理\"进入\"融资纪律测试\"——拥挤的代理交易是否已成为主要风险？", "summary": "空间经济：从\"SpaceX 上市代理\"进入\"融资纪律测试\"——拥挤的代理交易是否已成为主要风险？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de1cdd993226/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "IRDM", "LUNR", "LMT", "600118.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d6b2c23ed6", "title": "航运与物流成本是油价、关税和供应链再通胀的二阶传导器", "titleEn": "Shipping and logistics costs are a second-order transmission channel for oil, tariffs, and supply-chain reflation", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d6b2c23ed6/", "laneId": "lane_79a55cd8530e", "lane": "航运物流/再通胀传导", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/shipping-logistics-and-reflation-transmission/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "材料行业研究报告：证伪“假性宽松”——需求收缩与产能过剩确立原油价格的“实性宽松”", "summary": "材料行业研究报告：证伪“假性宽松”——需求收缩与产能过剩确立原油价格的“实性宽松”", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d962090635bf/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601919.SH", "1919.HK", "ZIM", "MATX", "600026.SH", "600018.SH", "BOAT" ] } ], "lanes": [ { "id": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "title": "AI 电力/电网设备", "href": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "thesisCount": 15, "eventCount": 30, "convictionTotal": 1086, "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "PWR", "META", "MSFT", "AMZN" ], "avgConviction": 72 }, { "id": "lane_f1a271385aff", "title": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "href": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "thesisCount": 9, "eventCount": 20, "convictionTotal": 598, "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "ASML", "688012.SH", "000660.KS", "MU", "002916.SZ", "AMD", "META", "AVGO", "MSFT", "AMZN" ], "avgConviction": 66 }, { "id": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "title": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "href": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "thesisCount": 13, "eventCount": 14, "convictionTotal": 1018, "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ], "avgConviction": 78 }, { "id": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "title": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "href": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "thesisCount": 8, "eventCount": 9, "convictionTotal": 608, "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "688008.SH", "600900.SH", "300308.SZ", "002371.SZ" ], "avgConviction": 76 }, { "id": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "title": "AI 算力半导体", "href": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "thesisCount": 4, "eventCount": 8, "convictionTotal": 281, "stockTickers": [ "META", "NVDA", "AMD", "MU", "AVGO", "TSM", "000660.KS", "MSFT", "GOOGL", "AMZN", "ASML" ], "avgConviction": 70 }, { "id": "lane_2d0dcf520f87", "title": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选", "href": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/", "thesisCount": 2, "eventCount": 8, "convictionTotal": 135, "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "VRT", "META", "MU", "MSFT", "AVGO", "000660.KS", "DELL" ], "avgConviction": 68 }, { "id": "lane_f21fc181388a", "title": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "href": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "thesisCount": 3, "eventCount": 7, "convictionTotal": 213, 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