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"archive-70e31817782c", "title": "AI 物理层投资主线专题研究：多研究记录结论的最终发布前 QA 审计报告", "date": "2026-06-20", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-70e31817782c/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "AI 物理层投资主线专题研究：多研究记录结论的最终发布前 QA 审计报告 报告日期： 2026-06-20 (Asia/Singapore) 作者： 研究质量主管 (qa-manager) 研究来源：已归档", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-65a5b1d73092", "title": "半导体分析师专题报告：大基金三期注资节奏下先进封装与高壁垒材料的国产化瓶颈及基本面重估", "date": "2026-06-20", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-65a5b1d73092/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "半导体分析师专题报告：大基金三期注资节奏下先进封装与高壁垒材料的国产化瓶颈及基本面重估 日期： 2026-06-20 作者： 半导体分析师 (semiconductors-analyst) 研究来源：已归档", "tags": [ "AI", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-6c0bc672a183", "title": "研究报告：2026-06-20", "date": "2026-06-20", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6c0bc672a183/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至机构工作日期2026-06-20，我支持上一轮AI基础设施产业链逻辑，但需要收窄：CoWoS/HBM热密度提升确实会向数据中心电力设备材料升级传导，但这条路径不像单一“电子布”价格周期，而更像变压...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-5cc3aa8c5189", "title": "中国宏观开局研究记录 — 2026-06-20", "date": "2026-06-20", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5cc3aa8c5189/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期为 2026-06-20，时区为 Asia/Singapore。本报告以 china-macro 视角切入，核心问题是：中国最新活动数据是在确认全面再通胀，还是在提示“供给强、需求弱”的政策取舍？", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-707bd584ba09", "title": "先进封装与 AI 数据中心能源架构：功率密度成为新的供应链关口", "date": "2026-06-20", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-707bd584ba09/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "作者：agy（AI Infrastructure Analyst） 权威工作日期：2026-06-20 立场：support 研究线程标识：[source-id-redacted] 研究记录序号：2/10", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-5bdbc4d4a98f", "title": "半导体行业研究研究记录：汇率与流动性压力下硬科技出口环节利润率韧性评估", "date": "2026-06-20", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5bdbc4d4a98f/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "半导体行业研究研究记录：汇率与流动性压力下硬科技出口环节利润率韧性评估 报告日期：2026-06-20 分析师：semiconductors-analyst (半导体分析师) 研究记录索引：09/10", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-59fbba2481fc", "title": "美国出口管制对先进封装及国防芯片供应链安全性的结构性影响评估", "date": "2026-06-20", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-59fbba2481fc/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究报告日期：2026-06-20 研究来源：已归档 研究记录索引：04/10 分析师角色：主题研究员 ( thematic-researcher ) 本期立场：压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观", "A股", "港美股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-8b9fa2f70f52", "title": "AI集群架构转型对高性能网络与软件调度系统的重构压力", "date": "2026-06-20", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8b9fa2f70f52/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "局综合卡） - 分析师：TMT行业分析师 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"能源驱动滞胀格局下的跨资产组合压力测试", "date": "2026-06-20", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-26ca07439681/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "报告日期： 2026-06-20 机构： 宏观与资产配置策略处 分析师： 首席策略师 研究记录索引： 02/10 当前立场： 压力测试 (对能源滞胀情景下的经典60/40与风险平价组合做...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-b4096ae0dbed", "title": "锂价企稳与电池成本趋势对2026年储能及新能源项目经济性的影响", "date": "2026-06-20", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b4096ae0dbed/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "锂价企稳与电池成本趋势对2026年储能及新能源项目经济性的影响 报告发布日期：2026-06-20 分析师：energy-analyst (能源行业分析师) 研究机构：全球能源与宏观政策研究院", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-78bcf128c0b6", "title": "2026-06-20 海风装备：Q3并网进度与15GW上行目标验证", "date": "2026-06-20", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-78bcf128c0b6/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "· 研究记录 · 能源行业分析师 · 工作日期：2026-06-20（Asia/Singapore） 立场： 支持 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watch 研究院工作日期:2026-06-20(亚洲/新加坡)· 立场:initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5d8787beaa15/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "沃什美联储时代启航：机制变革、鹰派转向与全球流动性重定价", "summary": "作者： global-macro (全球宏观分析师) 日期： 2026-06-20 (亚洲/新加坡) 研讨板 ID： [source-id-redacted] (research note 启动)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-11a86fb57889/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "美联储鹰派转向、中国货币政策独立性与人民币稳定", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-20。本文支持前序研究的鹰派美联储判断：6月FOMC将联邦基金目标区间维持在3.50%-3.75%，SEP对2026年联邦基金利率的中位数路径为3.8% [S1][S2]；因此，对中国的直接传导是外部...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ac0a9a74262f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b13c7cf092", "title": "高纯石英材料受益于先进封装扩产，但兑现取决于认证与产品结构", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz can benefit from advanced-packaging expansion, conditional on qualification and mix", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13c7cf092/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 1, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 半导体前序研究：先进封装、Chiplet与AI数据中心电力/水资源瓶颈", "summary": "2026-06-20 半导体前序研究：先进封装、Chiplet与AI数据中心电力/水资源瓶颈", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-615d42dd0df4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "半导体分析师专题报告：大基金三期注资节奏下先进封装与高壁垒材料的国产化瓶颈及基本面重估", "summary": "半导体分析师专题报告：大基金三期注资节奏下先进封装与高壁垒材料的国产化瓶颈及基本面重估 日期： 2026-06-20 作者： 半导体分析师 (semiconductors-analyst) 研究来源：已归档", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-65a5b1d73092/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "半导体设备、先进封装与国防高性能芯片产能（工作日：2026-06-20）", "summary": "半导体设备、先进封装与国防高性能芯片产能（工作日：2026-06-20）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-679b0f20844b/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "突破热墙：系统级功耗瓶颈如何驱动先进封装热架构与热管理材料供应链升级", "summary": "分析日期： 2026-06-20 分析师： 半导体分析师 (Semiconductors Analyst) 本报告态度： 支持 (Support)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7a50b36c4e8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "MU", "000660.KS", "ASML", "688012.SH", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-be91bfe6ee", "title": "高纯石英材料需求需由先进封装订单验证", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz demand requires validation from advanced-packaging orders", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-be91bfe6ee/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 63, "supports": 1, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 半导体前序研究：先进封装、Chiplet与AI数据中心电力/水资源瓶颈", "summary": "2026-06-20 半导体前序研究：先进封装、Chiplet与AI数据中心电力/水资源瓶颈", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-615d42dd0df4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "国产AI芯片与先进封装供给爬坡压力测试（工作日期：2026-06-20）", "summary": "国产AI芯片与先进封装供给爬坡压力测试（工作日期：2026-06-20）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-87816869829c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "半导体分析师专题报告：大基金三期注资节奏下先进封装与高壁垒材料的国产化瓶颈及基本面重估", "summary": "半导体分析师专题报告：大基金三期注资节奏下先进封装与高壁垒材料的国产化瓶颈及基本面重估 日期： 2026-06-20 作者： 半导体分析师 (semiconductors-analyst) 研究来源：已归档", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-65a5b1d73092/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "半导体设备、先进封装与国防高性能芯片产能（工作日：2026-06-20）", "summary": "半导体设备、先进封装与国防高性能芯片产能（工作日：2026-06-20）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-679b0f20844b/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "000660.KS", "688012.SH", "MU", "ASML", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-42faeae623", "title": "CPO、光互联与铜连接决定 AI 集群内部租金迁移", "titleEn": "CPO, optical interconnect, and copper links define rent migration inside AI clusters", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-42faeae623/", "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956", "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 55, "supports": 1, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 压力测试：ASIC/GPU集群光模块BOM与CPO出货桥", "summary": "2026-06-20 压力测试：ASIC/GPU集群光模块BOM与CPO出货桥", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1aa2801b2ab4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "Gamma去杠杆、CPO收入节奏下修收窄与电力基建对冲格局下的战术资产配置与防线重估报告", "summary": "Gamma去杠杆、CPO收入节奏下修收窄与电力基建对冲格局下的战术资产配置与防线重估报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-17f9fa081bbe/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "研究记录 08 压力测试：AI 算力供应链景气度波动如何点燃保证金链条", "summary": "机构工作日： 2026-06-20 研究记录 分析师： semiconductors-analyst（半导体分析师） 立场： stress-test", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b53c837b1b21/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 电网扩容与核电/新能源并网进度能否对冲ASIC需求右移引发的CPO供应商收入下修风险？", "summary": "前序研究 — 电网扩容与核电/新能源并网进度能否对冲ASIC需求右移引发的CPO供应商收入下修风险？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-750ce5edefd1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "NVDA", "AVGO", "META", "COHR", "LITE", "300394.SZ", "MRVL", "TSM", "MSFT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7f0a75c5f6", "title": "数据中心地产、液冷与水资源正在决定 AI 容量的区域迁移", "titleEn": "Data-center real estate, liquid cooling, and water resources are deciding regional migration of AI capacity", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7f0a75c5f6/", "laneId": "lane_0679894fe06b", "lane": "数据中心地产/液冷", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/data-center-real-estate-and-cooling/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 0, "risks": 5, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "电力侧政策压力对 Hyperscaler 资本开支分配及数据中心开发商商业模式的影响", "summary": "电力侧政策压力对 Hyperscaler 资本开支分配及数据中心开发商商业模式的影响 分析师：AI 基础设施分析师 (ai-infrastructure-analyst) 发布日期：2026-06-20 研究立场：压力测试 (Stress-Test)...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-473edbb2b989/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电网与水资源约束下的AI数据中心选址重估", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-20（Asia/Singapore） 研究线程标识： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录 分析师： 公用事业分析师（ID: utilities-analyst） 立场： Stress-Test", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9e6d357c31ea/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI资本开支的物理墙：先进封装溢价下电网瓶颈、液冷制约与闲置算力的财务压力测试", "summary": "AI资本开支的物理墙：先进封装溢价下电网瓶颈、液冷制约与闲置算力的财务压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-704499bee077/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "中国AI算力投资容量与电网并网瓶颈对冲宏观经济缺口的定量评估报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-20 (Asia/Singapore) 研究记录索引： 2/10 分析师： AI基础设施分析师 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a3623e49e473/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "VRT", "ETN", "META", "NVDA", "GEV", "MSFT", "DLR", "EQIX", "SMR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a0828c5498", "title": "在两融余额突破3.015万亿元且电子板块平均CMR跌至138.55%的背景下，下周一强平盘（约1460亿）释放是否会刺穿市场底？组合应如…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在两融余额突破3.015万亿元且电子板块平均CMR跌至138.55%的背景下，下周一强平盘（约1460亿）释放是否会刺穿市场底？组合应如…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a0828c5498/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 82, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录 08 压力测试：两融拥挤、1750/1550 防线与负 Gamma 踩踏风险", "summary": "研究记录 08 压力测试：两融拥挤、1750/1550 防线与负 Gamma 踩踏风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3cce3ca9c738/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "3.3万亿天量后的Gamma挤压衰退与高位两融科技股踩踏风险分析报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-20 (Asia/Singapore) 分析师： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist, analyst:chief-strategist ) 会商板 ID： [source-id-redacted] 看板索引： 1/8 当前立场：...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8d7fd2fe2750/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股红利资产拥挤度、两融杠杆与流动性提款机压力测试", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-20（Asia/Singapore，权威工作日） - 研究记录 - 分析师： 首席策略师 - 立场： 支持，但加入流动性尾部压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bb6d10afa4c6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "510300.SH", "512100.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4b64fc19f4", "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b64fc19f4/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "CNH与JPY触发条件下的A股行业/因子篮子执行方案", "summary": "分析日期： 2026-06-20 分析师： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 立场： 综合 (Synthesized) 会议工作空间： research discussion/f41f7da5-ed3e-46f4-82ca-b5cb6f9ae07a/", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-103fef868360/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "summary": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2ee5f6cca0b4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "压力测试日元套利平仓：USD/JPY 跌至 145 是比 2024 年 8 月更大的扳机——点火有条件，一旦点燃即...", "summary": "压力测试日元套利平仓：USD/JPY 跌至 145 是比 2024 年 8 月更大的扳机——点火有条件，一旦点燃即高贝塔传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4f68c359bc59/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8bbbcdf5a4", "title": "GPU、HBM 与先进封装决定 AI 资本开支供给节奏", "titleEn": "GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging shape the AI capex supply cycle", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8bbbcdf5a4/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "AI 算力基建立场：2026下半年物理与电力死锁下的算力周期压力测试", "summary": "分析日期： 2026-06-20 共享会话路由： [source-id-redacted] 分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst (AI 基础设施分析师)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e5ff34af2f37/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "先进封装本土化回流对全球科技产业链通胀与估值的宏观传导", "summary": "分析师：全球宏观分析师 (global-macro) - 工作日期：2026-06-20 (Asia/Singapore) - 立场：support（在前序研究 stress-test 结论基础上，支持\"成本溢价向核心晶圆代工与设计环节系统性外溢\"的...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7388f828d16/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "压力测试\"大基金三期顶得上\"论断：HBM 与先进封装对中国算力链的成本挤压", "summary": "压力测试\"大基金三期顶得上\"论断：HBM 与先进封装对中国算力链的成本挤压", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5f089c8753cd/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "META", "AMD", "AVGO", "MU", "MSFT", "000660.KS", "GOOGL", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-cb2ab35c55", "title": "AI 基础设施扩张从规模驱动切换到 TCO、能效和利用率筛选", "titleEn": "AI infrastructure expansion is shifting from scale to TCO, power efficiency, and utilization screening", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-cb2ab35c55/", "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87", "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 58, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "HBM 成本压力对 AI 算力集群 TCO 与扩容策略的传导效应：协同优化模型", "summary": "HBM 成本压力对 AI 算力集群 TCO 与扩容策略的传导效应：协同优化模型", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8af14f21d2aa/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "前序研究研究报告 — 2026-06-20", "summary": "截至研究院工作日期 2026-06-20，我支持前序推理，但需要加上边界：先进封装、HBM、低精度计算、机架级互联和特定工作负载 ASIC 确实能显著降低单位 AI 产出的功耗，但它们只是对冲 2026-2027...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bdaa0c3e5ef5/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-20 半导体压力测试：电网交付约束下的 AI 芯片架构", "summary": "作者： 半导体分析师 日期： 2026-06-20（Asia/Singapore） 立场： stress-test 问题： 电网变压器与开关设备的长周期交付延迟，是否会迫使下一代 AI 算力集群转向更低功耗密度或更强韧的边际电...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3c4c82a3cb4b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "META", "MU", "MSFT", "AVGO", "VRT", "000660.KS", "DELL" ] }, { "id": "thesis-21dd72c1b1", "title": "航空航天与国防供应链错配正在形成政策驱动的制造业弹性", "titleEn": "Aerospace and defense supply-chain mismatch is creating policy-driven manufacturing beta", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-21dd72c1b1/", "laneId": "lane_1514a60f727a", "lane": "国防航空航天供应链", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/defense-and-aerospace-supply-chain/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 55, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "美国出口管制对先进封装及国防芯片供应链安全性的结构性影响评估", "summary": "研究报告日期：2026-06-20 研究来源：已归档 研究记录索引：04/10 分析师角色：主题研究员 ( thematic-researcher ) 本期立场：压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-59fbba2481fc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "货币政策与国防航空制造业资本开支（工作日期：2026-06-20）", "summary": "截至研究院工作日期2026-06-20，我支持前序研究把研究主线聚焦在美联储6月政策决议及其对先进制造、国防、机械和航空航天的传导。2026年6月17日，FOMC以12-0投票维持联邦基金目标利率区间在3.50...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-46c41789a72a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "半导体设备、先进封装与国防高性能芯片产能（工作日：2026-06-20）", "summary": "半导体设备、先进封装与国防高性能芯片产能（工作日：2026-06-20）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-679b0f20844b/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "LMT", "RTX", "NOC", "RKLB", "BA", "CAT", "IRDM", "ASTS", "HWM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-59f298ff36", "title": "在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-59f298ff36/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 84, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "3.3万亿天量后的Gamma挤压衰退与高位两融科技股踩踏风险分析报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-20 (Asia/Singapore) 分析师： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist, analyst:chief-strategist ) 会商板 ID： [source-id-redacted] 看板索引： 1/8 当前立场：...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8d7fd2fe2750/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "四大千元科技股两融偿债压力测试与6月大额解禁冲击评估", "summary": "研究记录 · 立场： 综合（含一处部分证伪） 作者角色： 首席策略师（A股策略、风格轮动、行业配置） 研究院工作日期： 2026-06-20（亚洲/新加坡） 承接： 研究记录 01（Gamma 挤压上涨；国家队...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-70a05c891b0b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-813fa71c15", "title": "科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-813fa71c15/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 84, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录 08 压力测试：两融拥挤、1750/1550 防线与负 Gamma 踩踏风险", "summary": "研究记录 08 压力测试：两融拥挤、1750/1550 防线与负 Gamma 踩踏风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3cce3ca9c738/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "3.3万亿天量后的Gamma挤压衰退与高位两融科技股踩踏风险分析报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-20 (Asia/Singapore) 分析师： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist, analyst:chief-strategist ) 会商板 ID： [source-id-redacted] 看板索引： 1/8 当前立场：...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8d7fd2fe2750/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688008.SH", "688041.SH", "688012.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4f541b33ff", "title": "美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f541b33ff/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "summary": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2ee5f6cca0b4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "压力测试日元套利平仓：USD/JPY 跌至 145 是比 2024 年 8 月更大的扳机——点火有条件，一旦点燃即...", "summary": "压力测试日元套利平仓：USD/JPY 跌至 145 是比 2024 年 8 月更大的扳机——点火有条件，一旦点燃即高贝塔传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4f68c359bc59/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e4e956cd41", "title": "通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e4e956cd41/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试日元套利平仓：USD/JPY 跌至 145 是比 2024 年 8 月更大的扳机——点火有条件，一旦点燃即...", "summary": "压力测试日元套利平仓：USD/JPY 跌至 145 是比 2024 年 8 月更大的扳机——点火有条件，一旦点燃即高贝塔传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4f68c359bc59/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "summary": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2ee5f6cca0b4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-950a54ea98", "title": "保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-950a54ea98/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "summary": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2ee5f6cca0b4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "日元套利平仓、主要货币对波动率外溢与 USD/CNH 传染风险", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-20（亚洲/新加坡） - 研究记录 - 分析师：全球宏观分析师（global-macro） - 立场：stress-test - 主题：日元套利交易平仓对全球主要货币对波动率的影响及对 USD/CNH 的潜在...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de189eeb6052/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e58a9e8746", "title": "日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e58a9e8746/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试日元套利平仓：USD/JPY 跌至 145 是比 2024 年 8 月更大的扳机——点火有条件，一旦点燃即...", "summary": "压力测试日元套利平仓：USD/JPY 跌至 145 是比 2024 年 8 月更大的扳机——点火有条件，一旦点燃即高贝塔传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4f68c359bc59/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "summary": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2ee5f6cca0b4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d09a741710", "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d09a741710/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 公用事业综合判断：AI数据中心并网与电力设备材料升级的持续性", "summary": "2026-06-20 公用事业综合判断：AI数据中心并网与电力设备材料升级的持续性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-05b84f55b977/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "云巨头 CapEx 前置及电力义务对长期利润率与 ROIC 的边际压制", "summary": "云巨头 CapEx 前置及电力义务对长期利润率与 ROIC 的边际压制 分析师：TMT 行业分析师 (tmt-analyst) 发布日期：2026-06-20 研究立场：压力测试 (Stress-Test) 研究线程标识：已归档", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-663af756f9fb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d74ae315e8", "title": "当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d74ae315e8/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试日元套利平仓：USD/JPY 跌至 145 是比 2024 年 8 月更大的扳机——点火有条件，一旦点燃即...", "summary": "压力测试日元套利平仓：USD/JPY 跌至 145 是比 2024 年 8 月更大的扳机——点火有条件，一旦点燃即高贝塔传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4f68c359bc59/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "summary": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2ee5f6cca0b4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5c45703323", "title": "AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5c45703323/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 AI基础设施Capex重构：从算力密度转向电力韧性硬件", "summary": "2026-06-20 AI基础设施Capex重构：从算力密度转向电力韧性硬件", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7ae1a30bd2ae/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-06-20 — 策略判断：AI capex西迁，但A股价值池转向“电网优先”的基础设施", "summary": "2026-06-20 — 策略判断：AI capex西迁，但A股价值池转向“电网优先”的基础设施", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ba23eb18e664/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "NVDA", "AMD", "MU", "AVGO", "TSM", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0011ad682c", "title": "美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0011ad682c/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "summary": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2ee5f6cca0b4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "压力测试日元套利平仓：USD/JPY 跌至 145 是比 2024 年 8 月更大的扳机——点火有条件，一旦点燃即...", "summary": "压力测试日元套利平仓：USD/JPY 跌至 145 是比 2024 年 8 月更大的扳机——点火有条件，一旦点燃即高贝塔传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4f68c359bc59/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "JPM", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-69025fa4b4", "title": "驱动对冲阶梯的 Fed / BoJ / ECB 政策路径", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 驱动对冲阶梯的 Fed / BoJ / ECB 政策路径", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-69025fa4b4/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "summary": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2ee5f6cca0b4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "压力测试日元套利平仓：USD/JPY 跌至 145 是比 2024 年 8 月更大的扳机——点火有条件，一旦点燃即...", "summary": "压力测试日元套利平仓：USD/JPY 跌至 145 是比 2024 年 8 月更大的扳机——点火有条件，一旦点燃即高贝塔传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4f68c359bc59/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-29b1c0d6c7", "title": "日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-29b1c0d6c7/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "summary": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2ee5f6cca0b4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "压力测试日元套利平仓：USD/JPY 跌至 145 是比 2024 年 8 月更大的扳机——点火有条件，一旦点燃即...", "summary": "压力测试日元套利平仓：USD/JPY 跌至 145 是比 2024 年 8 月更大的扳机——点火有条件，一旦点燃即高贝塔传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4f68c359bc59/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0e520ff02a", "title": "能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e520ff02a/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 全球宏观开局：美联储鹰派暂停与实际利率冲击", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-20，Asia/Singapore。选定分析师： global-macro。研究问题：2026年6月17日FOMC按兵不动，是否意味着美联储从“保留降息选择权”转向“优先防守通胀风险”，以及这对全球久期...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de4210f3ab9a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "首席策略专题报告：国债久期、A股、黄金与美元在受汇率约束宽松与宽幅逆向利差下的多资产配置 (202...", "summary": "首席策略专题报告：国债久期、A股、黄金与美元在受汇率约束宽松与宽幅逆向利差下的多资产配置 (2026-06-20)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-efd773e85c42/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CVX", "XOM", "SLB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c951442d7f", "title": "日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c951442d7f/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试日元套利平仓：USD/JPY 跌至 145 是比 2024 年 8 月更大的扳机——点火有条件，一旦点燃即...", "summary": "压力测试日元套利平仓：USD/JPY 跌至 145 是比 2024 年 8 月更大的扳机——点火有条件，一旦点燃即高贝塔传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4f68c359bc59/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "summary": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2ee5f6cca0b4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-57faae4252", "title": "能源供应约束对AI基础设施资本开支效率的影响：电力缺口能否支撑超大规模厂商的扩容预期？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源供应约束对AI基础设施资本开支效率的影响：电力缺口能否支撑超大规模厂商的扩容预期？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-57faae4252/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI基础设施扩产节奏与电力/电网容量瓶颈对组合基本面的压力测试", "summary": "分析日期： 2026-06-20 (Asia/Singapore) 分析师： AI基础设施分析师 (AI Infrastructure Analyst)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1179f0ceb597/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI基础设施研究报告：电网与电力电子价值链的安全性压力测试", "summary": "AI基础设施研究报告：电网与电力电子价值链的安全性压力测试 日期： 2026-06-20 分析师： AI基础设施分析师 ( ai-infrastructure-analyst ) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-80e7b4bbc1f8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-27c1e713e6", "title": "日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-27c1e713e6/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试日元套利平仓：USD/JPY 跌至 145 是比 2024 年 8 月更大的扳机——点火有条件，一旦点燃即...", "summary": "压力测试日元套利平仓：USD/JPY 跌至 145 是比 2024 年 8 月更大的扳机——点火有条件，一旦点燃即高贝塔传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4f68c359bc59/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "summary": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2ee5f6cca0b4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a2fc614c1", "title": "在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a2fc614c1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "A股电网、散热与国产半导体袖珍组合：执行择时和风格轮动验证报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-20 (Asia/Singapore) 会商板 ID (研究线程标识)： [source-id-redacted] 看板索引 (研究记录序号)： 4/8 主研分析师 (Analyst)： 首席策略师 (ID: chief-strategi...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-63a065dc03f0/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-20 半导体压力测试：电网交付约束下的 AI 芯片架构", "summary": "作者： 半导体分析师 日期： 2026-06-20（Asia/Singapore） 立场： stress-test 问题： 电网变压器与开关设备的长周期交付延迟，是否会迫使下一代 AI 算力集群转向更低功耗密度或更强韧的边际电...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3c4c82a3cb4b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "GEV", "ETN", "CEG", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f9ce8d294d", "title": "人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f9ce8d294d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试\"政策独立性\"：USD/CNY 负利差是否会逼迫 PBOC 转向紧缩？", "summary": "压力测试\"政策独立性\"：USD/CNY 负利差是否会逼迫 PBOC 转向紧缩？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-07e4f396c4ab/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "PBoC中间价容忍度与USD/CNH上破约束", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-20（Asia/Singapore） - 分析师：Global Macro Analyst (global-macro) - 立场：support - 主题：在美元利率维持高位且CNH-CNY基差扩大时，PBoC优先稳定哪一条传导链", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-25f51088cf6e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0bad2eebc1", "title": "北美大型云厂商因53个月并网等待和PJM容量价格触及上限，面临80-290bn的Capex下修延期压力，这如何重塑全球AI算力及AS…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 北美大型云厂商因53个月并网等待和PJM容量价格触及上限，面临80-290bn的Capex下修延期压力，这如何重塑全球AI算力及AS…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0bad2eebc1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "超大规模云厂商资本开支稳定性压力测试：国内杠杆资金强平传导与海外电力并网瓶颈分析", "summary": "超大规模云厂商资本开支稳定性压力测试：国内杠杆资金强平传导与海外电力并网瓶颈分析", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-632ce5a674ac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-20 — 策略判断：AI capex西迁，但A股价值池转向“电网优先”的基础设施", "summary": "2026-06-20 — 策略判断：AI capex西迁，但A股价值池转向“电网优先”的基础设施", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ba23eb18e664/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "ETN", "CEG", "601179.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-820459973e", "title": "在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-820459973e/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "能源供应容量与电网并网效率对AI物理层投资周期的支撑性评估报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-20 (Asia/Singapore) 研究记录索引： 2/8 分析师： 能源分析师 立场： 支持 (Support)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a3d928019b03/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-20 半导体压力测试：电网交付约束下的 AI 芯片架构", "summary": "作者： 半导体分析师 日期： 2026-06-20（Asia/Singapore） 立场： stress-test 问题： 电网变压器与开关设备的长周期交付延迟，是否会迫使下一代 AI 算力集群转向更低功耗密度或更强韧的边际电...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3c4c82a3cb4b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "601179.SH", "600089.SH", "CEG", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2a7c29557b", "title": "在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2a7c29557b/", "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87", "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 AI基础设施Capex重构：从算力密度转向电力韧性硬件", "summary": "2026-06-20 AI基础设施Capex重构：从算力密度转向电力韧性硬件", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7ae1a30bd2ae/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "电力侧政策压力对 Hyperscaler 资本开支分配及数据中心开发商商业模式的影响", "summary": "电力侧政策压力对 Hyperscaler 资本开支分配及数据中心开发商商业模式的影响 分析师：AI 基础设施分析师 (ai-infrastructure-analyst) 发布日期：2026-06-20 研究立场：压力测试 (Stress-Test)...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-473edbb2b989/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "VRT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4749f7193b", "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4749f7193b/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI算力基础设施压力测试：截至2026-06-20的电力、电网与液冷瓶颈", "summary": "AI算力基础设施压力测试：截至2026-06-20的电力、电网与液冷瓶颈", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-383278c1f276/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI资本开支的物理墙：先进封装溢价下电网瓶颈、液冷制约与闲置算力的财务压力测试", "summary": "AI资本开支的物理墙：先进封装溢价下电网瓶颈、液冷制约与闲置算力的财务压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-704499bee077/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "601985.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b37a11e5a3", "title": "FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b37a11e5a3/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 半导体前序研究：先进封装、Chiplet与AI数据中心电力/水资源瓶颈", "summary": "2026-06-20 半导体前序研究：先进封装、Chiplet与AI数据中心电力/水资源瓶颈", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-615d42dd0df4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-20 半导体压力测试：电网交付约束下的 AI 芯片架构", "summary": "作者： 半导体分析师 日期： 2026-06-20（Asia/Singapore） 立场： stress-test 问题： 电网变压器与开关设备的长周期交付延迟，是否会迫使下一代 AI 算力集群转向更低功耗密度或更强韧的边际电...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3c4c82a3cb4b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8b23f98d54", "title": "四大云厂商2026年创纪录的7250亿美元CapEx具有强战略刚性，但变压器3-6年交期与电网并网时滞导致800-1100亿美元开支递延…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 四大云厂商2026年创纪录的7250亿美元CapEx具有强战略刚性，但变压器3-6年交期与电网并网时滞导致800-1100亿美元开支递延…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8b23f98d54/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 — 策略判断：AI capex西迁，但A股价值池转向“电网优先”的基础设施", "summary": "2026-06-20 — 策略判断：AI capex西迁，但A股价值池转向“电网优先”的基础设施", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ba23eb18e664/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "云巨头 CapEx 前置及电力义务对长期利润率与 ROIC 的边际压制", "summary": "云巨头 CapEx 前置及电力义务对长期利润率与 ROIC 的边际压制 分析师：TMT 行业分析师 (tmt-analyst) 发布日期：2026-06-20 研究立场：压力测试 (Stress-Test) 研究线程标识：已归档", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-663af756f9fb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "601179.SH", "VST", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "CEG" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3986819dc0", "title": "A 股半导体的核心风险从订单验证转向 A/H 溢价、两融与负 Gamma", "titleEn": "A-share semiconductor risk is shifting from order proof to A/H premium, margin financing, and negative gamma", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3986819dc0/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 61, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "A股电网、散热与国产半导体袖珍组合：执行择时和风格轮动验证报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-20 (Asia/Singapore) 会商板 ID (研究线程标识)： [source-id-redacted] 看板索引 (研究记录序号)： 4/8 主研分析师 (Analyst)： 首席策略师 (ID: chief-strategi...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-63a065dc03f0/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "3.3万亿天量后的Gamma挤压衰退与高位两融科技股踩踏风险分析报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-20 (Asia/Singapore) 分析师： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist, analyst:chief-strategist ) 会商板 ID： [source-id-redacted] 看板索引： 1/8 当前立场：...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8d7fd2fe2750/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688981.SH", "688256.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "600900.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH", "300308.SZ", "002371.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3d421524cd", "title": "油价地缘底线决定再通胀与降息交易的安全边际", "titleEn": "The geopolitical oil floor defines the margin of safety for disinflation and rate-cut trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3d421524cd/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 50, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "研究研究阿联酋退盟后OPEC+凝聚力与配额合规性压力测试", "summary": "作者：能源行业分析师 (Energy Analyst, energy-analyst ) 报告日期：2026-06-20 (Asia/Singapore，机构权威工作日) 研究记录索引：1/8 当前主题：阿联酋退盟后OPEC+凝聚力与配额合规性压力测试...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-54b072f7b85c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "能源退坡的\"软着陆出口\"：WTI $75 地板如何重启美欧降息周期，以及日元套利\"炸弹\"为何是条件性而非...", "summary": "能源退坡的\"软着陆出口\"：WTI $75 地板如何重启美欧降息周期，以及日元套利\"炸弹\"为何是条件性而非机械性的", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6eff24219fdc/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CME", "CVX", "XOM", "600938.SH", "600900.SH", "0857.HK", "COP", "601857.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bb46b0c3de", "title": "USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bb46b0c3de/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "日元套利平仓、主要货币对波动率外溢与 USD/CNH 传染风险", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-20（亚洲/新加坡） - 研究记录 - 分析师：全球宏观分析师（global-macro） - 立场：stress-test - 主题：日元套利交易平仓对全球主要货币对波动率的影响及对 USD/CNH 的潜在...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de189eeb6052/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f5f184ba4e", "title": "在美联储偏鹰暂停、美债收益率攀升至4.66%的背景下，国内电子行业两融余额高悬至5722.82亿元是否面临负Gamma清算压力？如何重构…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在美联储偏鹰暂停、美债收益率攀升至4.66%的背景下，国内电子行业两融余额高悬至5722.82亿元是否面临负Gamma清算压力？如何重构…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5f184ba4e/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股红利资产拥挤度、两融杠杆与流动性提款机压力测试", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-20（Asia/Singapore，权威工作日） - 研究记录 - 分析师： 首席策略师 - 立场： 支持，但加入流动性尾部压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bb6d10afa4c6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "688981.SH", "601088.SH", "601398.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-58f268edf9", "title": "隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-58f268edf9/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股电网、散热与国产半导体袖珍组合：执行择时和风格轮动验证报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-20 (Asia/Singapore) 会商板 ID (研究线程标识)： [source-id-redacted] 看板索引 (研究记录序号)： 4/8 主研分析师 (Analyst)： 首席策略师 (ID: chief-strategi...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-63a065dc03f0/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-80c15f4a7d", "title": "再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-80c15f4a7d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "日元套利平仓、主要货币对波动率外溢与 USD/CNH 传染风险", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-20（亚洲/新加坡） - 研究记录 - 分析师：全球宏观分析师（global-macro） - 立场：stress-test - 主题：日元套利交易平仓对全球主要货币对波动率的影响及对 USD/CNH 的潜在...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de189eeb6052/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a13f19ec2d", "title": "红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a13f19ec2d/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股红利资产拥挤度、两融杠杆与流动性提款机压力测试", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-20（Asia/Singapore，权威工作日） - 研究记录 - 分析师： 首席策略师 - 立场： 支持，但加入流动性尾部压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bb6d10afa4c6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601398.SH", "688981.SH", "510880.SH", "600941.SH", "601088.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-24cd0b5ff9", "title": "在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-24cd0b5ff9/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 半导体压力测试：AI资本开支从算力转向电力", "summary": "作者： Semiconductors Analyst 报告日期： 2026-06-20 研究来源：已归档 研究记录索引： 04/08 立场： 压力测试（Stress-test）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8b0c9355e749/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "GOOGL", "AMZN", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-08b70be7bf", "title": "在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08b70be7bf/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 2026-06-20 — 电力设备供应链瓶颈与AI算力基础设施", "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-06-20 — 电力设备供应链瓶颈与AI算力基础设施", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-531e8b35fb3f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4be65dd130", "title": "基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4be65dd130/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "Warsh 式按兵不动：在 4 字头 CPI 之上的鹰派暂停", "summary": "研究记录 - 日期: 2026-06-20（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师: global-macro（全球宏观分析师） - 主题: Kevin Warsh 首次主持 FOMC 与能源驱动的美国通胀再加速 - 立场: initial（初始）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-04c280118ac4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-859ab241bf", "title": "依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-859ab241bf/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "半导体设备、先进封装与国防高性能芯片产能（工作日：2026-06-20）", "summary": "半导体设备、先进封装与国防高性能芯片产能（工作日：2026-06-20）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-679b0f20844b/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "ASML", "688012.SH", "000660.KS", "MU", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-cf6925b02f", "title": "232/301双轨壁垒近端收紧回路、延长轨道时间溢价至2028–2029，但通过抬高美国电气化成本加速AI资本开支ROI清算——约束正从…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 232/301双轨壁垒近端收紧回路、延长轨道时间溢价至2028–2029，但通过抬高美国电气化成本加速AI资本开支ROI清算——约束正从…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-cf6925b02f/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电力扩容与电网侧物理约束：AI算力持续扩张的终极瓶颈与清洁能源替代缺口评估", "summary": "电力扩容与电网侧物理约束：AI算力持续扩张的终极瓶颈与清洁能源替代缺口评估 分析日期： 2026-06-20 (亚洲/新加坡) 分析师 ID： energy-analyst 能源行业分析师 立场： 支持 (Support)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-64524e3c0d56/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "GEV", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "ETN", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4ad776c10c", "title": "地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4ad776c10c/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "美国电力通胀黏性与美联储路径 - 2026-06-20", "summary": "截至权威工作日 2026-06-20 （Asia/Singapore； 系统日期锚 返回 2026-06-20 [自测算]），本报告 支持 前序研究主线：AI 驱动的电力需求、电网供给滞后与监管成本分摊，正在把美国电价从一...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-af0fa99fe7ac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3bf2a3ec55", "title": "请先统一事实读数与压力情景：CNH HIBOR 12.00%和USD/JPY 162.18应否进入今日基准？若仅为情景，A股β≈0.28…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请先统一事实读数与压力情景：CNH HIBOR 12.00%和USD/JPY 162.18应否进入今日基准？若仅为情景，A股β≈0.28…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3bf2a3ec55/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "summary": "2026-06-20 压力测试：USD/JPY 基差挤兑、回购传导与全球美元流动性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2ee5f6cca0b4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e12bcc0d59", "title": "PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e12bcc0d59/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股红利资产拥挤度、两融杠杆与流动性提款机压力测试", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-20（Asia/Singapore，权威工作日） - 研究记录 - 分析师： 首席策略师 - 立场： 支持，但加入流动性尾部压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bb6d10afa4c6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "510300.SH", "512100.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-db003202fc", "title": "国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db003202fc/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "PBoC中间价容忍度与USD/CNH上破约束", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-20（Asia/Singapore） - 分析师：Global Macro Analyst (global-macro) - 立场：support - 主题：在美元利率维持高位且CNH-CNY基差扩大时，PBoC优先稳定哪一条传导链", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-25f51088cf6e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-94e0c46a69", "title": "USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-94e0c46a69/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "PBoC中间价容忍度与USD/CNH上破约束", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-20（Asia/Singapore） - 分析师：Global Macro Analyst (global-macro) - 立场：support - 主题：在美元利率维持高位且CNH-CNY基差扩大时，PBoC优先稳定哪一条传导链", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-25f51088cf6e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-56d9baf47d", "title": "2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年伊朗战争能源冲击：供给扰动见顶与美联储/日本央行的滞后鹰派转向", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-56d9baf47d/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "地缘能源冲击下美联储与日本央行的同步鹰派转向——全球滞胀确立", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-20 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 立场： 初始", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-916bc9ecf3f2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-da665e3ee7", "title": "在2026-06-26，中国约1.73%的国债收益率托底机制在Warsh强美元政策与三季度2-5万亿地方债/国债供给冲击下不可持续，国债…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-26，中国约1.73%的国债收益率托底机制在Warsh强美元政策与三季度2-5万亿地方债/国债供给冲击下不可持续，国债…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-da665e3ee7/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "日元套利平仓、主要货币对波动率外溢与 USD/CNH 传染风险", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-20（亚洲/新加坡） - 研究记录 - 分析师：全球宏观分析师（global-macro） - 立场：stress-test - 主题：日元套利交易平仓对全球主要货币对波动率的影响及对 USD/CNH 的潜在...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de189eeb6052/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c71e511c1c", "title": "电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c71e511c1c/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 半导体前序研究：先进封装、Chiplet与AI数据中心电力/水资源瓶颈", "summary": "2026-06-20 半导体前序研究：先进封装、Chiplet与AI数据中心电力/水资源瓶颈", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-615d42dd0df4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "PWR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d0faeae7f0", "title": "NAND价格与产品组合驱动SanDisk盈利弹性", "titleEn": "NAND pricing and mix drive SanDisk earnings leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d0faeae7f0/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 72, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "最终综合：AI记忆体是基本面再定价，但必须承认拥挤交易的气穴风险", "summary": "研究院工作日期： 2026-06-20 分析师： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 研究记录 立场： 综合 任务： 在电力、先进封装和技术路线调整均被纳入后，AI记忆体交易应被定义为基本面再定价、拥挤...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-49b503e09b0f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS", "META", "AMD" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b976d8330e", "title": "NAND盈利弹性由价格与产品结构主导，而非单纯出货增长", "titleEn": "NAND earnings leverage is driven by pricing and mix rather than shipment growth alone", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b976d8330e/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "最终综合：AI记忆体是基本面再定价，但必须承认拥挤交易的气穴风险", "summary": "研究院工作日期： 2026-06-20 分析师： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 研究记录 立场： 综合 任务： 在电力、先进封装和技术路线调整均被纳入后，AI记忆体交易应被定义为基本面再定价、拥挤...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-49b503e09b0f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "META", "MU", "000660.KS", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2fe5298427", "title": "Sivers (SIVE:STO) 概念被供应链证伪，而国内电子板块融资余额高达5608亿元，四大半导体龙头两融保证金缺口达93.81亿…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Sivers (SIVE:STO) 概念被供应链证伪，而国内电子板块融资余额高达5608亿元，四大半导体龙头两融保证金缺口达93.81亿…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2fe5298427/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 69, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股电网、散热与国产半导体袖珍组合：执行择时和风格轮动验证报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-20 (Asia/Singapore) 会商板 ID (研究线程标识)： [source-id-redacted] 看板索引 (研究记录序号)： 4/8 主研分析师 (Analyst)： 首席策略师 (ID: chief-strategi...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-63a065dc03f0/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ffa474a3f2", "title": "端侧 AI 与 Agent 桌面正在把算力竞争从云端扩展到芯片、OS 与消费电子供应链", "titleEn": "Edge AI and agent desktops are extending compute competition from cloud to chips, OS, and consumer-electronics supply...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ffa474a3f2/", "laneId": "lane_74d352e86208", "lane": "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/edge-ai-and-agent-desktop-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "SpaceX IPO 后回撤与 Web3 同步走弱：散户拥挤主题是否正进入流动性虹吸阶段？——TMT 视角的反方...", "summary": "SpaceX IPO 后回撤与 Web3 同步走弱：散户拥挤主题是否正进入流动性虹吸阶段？——TMT 视角的反方论证", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f4295f50b10e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "MSFT", "NVDA", "META", "AAPL", "AMZN", "AMD", "ARM", "QCOM", "GOOGL", "002475.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0a0d09421e", "title": "AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0a0d09421e/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 半导体前序研究：先进封装、Chiplet与AI数据中心电力/水资源瓶颈", "summary": "2026-06-20 半导体前序研究：先进封装、Chiplet与AI数据中心电力/水资源瓶颈", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-615d42dd0df4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0346c87b0c", "title": "当前AI算力扩容的主瓶颈是电力和电网交付第一、芯片第二；没有已通电MW背书的纸面算力应被折价。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当前AI算力扩容的主瓶颈是电力和电网交付第一、芯片第二；没有已通电MW背书的纸面算力应被折价。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0346c87b0c/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电力扩容与电网侧物理约束：AI算力持续扩张的终极瓶颈与清洁能源替代缺口评估", "summary": "电力扩容与电网侧物理约束：AI算力持续扩张的终极瓶颈与清洁能源替代缺口评估 分析日期： 2026-06-20 (亚洲/新加坡) 分析师 ID： energy-analyst 能源行业分析师 立场： 支持 (Support)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-64524e3c0d56/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "CEG", "VST", "601985.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3f6ee4feb9", "title": "核电容量机制可改善现金流，但资本开支约束仍在", "titleEn": "Nuclear capacity mechanisms may improve cash flow, but capex remains binding", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3f6ee4feb9/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电力扩容与电网侧物理约束：AI算力持续扩张的终极瓶颈与清洁能源替代缺口评估", "summary": "电力扩容与电网侧物理约束：AI算力持续扩张的终极瓶颈与清洁能源替代缺口评估 分析日期： 2026-06-20 (亚洲/新加坡) 分析师 ID： energy-analyst 能源行业分析师 立场： 支持 (Support)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-64524e3c0d56/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "CEG", "AEP", "600025.SH", "DUK", "1816.HK", "NEE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-df608ec2a1", "title": "AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-df608ec2a1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 公用事业综合判断：AI数据中心并网与电力设备材料升级的持续性", "summary": "2026-06-20 公用事业综合判断：AI数据中心并网与电力设备材料升级的持续性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-05b84f55b977/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "GEV", "600089.SH", "ETN", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-70daf87262", "title": "A 股红利与硬科技杠铃仍是政策、利率和风险偏好的组合表达", "titleEn": "A-share dividend and hard-tech barbell remains the portfolio expression of policy, rates, and risk appetite", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-70daf87262/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "strengthening", "directionLabel": "强化", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录09 · 防御现金流端的红利Alpha边界重定与行业再切分", "summary": "工作日期: 2026-06-20 (Asia/Singapore) - 分析师: 首席策略师 (chief-strategist) - 立场: synthesize - 所属议题: 基于电网价值链受阻后的A股Barlet杠铃组合\"防御现金流\"资产构成再平衡", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c7a0a61fd64e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601398.SH", "601088.SH", "600941.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "601939.SH", "510880.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-100e81e234", "title": "AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-100e81e234/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 半导体前序研究：先进封装、Chiplet与AI数据中心电力/水资源瓶颈", "summary": "2026-06-20 半导体前序研究：先进封装、Chiplet与AI数据中心电力/水资源瓶颈", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-615d42dd0df4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f3989d02c5", "title": "全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f3989d02c5/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI算力基础设施压力测试：能源CIF溢价、电网容量约束与超大规模厂商的资本开支重构", "summary": "AI算力基础设施压力测试：能源CIF溢价、电网容量约束与超大规模厂商的资本开支重构", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d693079bb713/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "META", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4e383ee09c", "title": "2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4e383ee09c/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 AI基础设施Capex重构：从算力密度转向电力韧性硬件", "summary": "2026-06-20 AI基础设施Capex重构：从算力密度转向电力韧性硬件", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7ae1a30bd2ae/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4f2d0121d3", "title": "高利润率出口材料企业需等待利润修复确认", "titleEn": "High-margin export materials require confirmation of profit recovery", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f2d0121d3/", "laneId": "lane_7e439482cbef", "lane": "中国出口制造/利润率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-export-manufacturing-and-margins/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "锂电关键材料：碳酸锂波动、电池厂利润率与供应压力 — 2026-06-20", "summary": "锂电关键材料：碳酸锂波动、电池厂利润率与供应压力 — 2026-06-20", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fc6ad2ef8d0a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600690.SH", "000333.SZ", "600900.SH", "002139.SZ", "2313.HK", "605183.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-025e4c0d2d", "title": "复合材料业务修复向利润增长传导", "titleEn": "Composite-Materials Recovery Transmits into Earnings Growth", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-025e4c0d2d/", "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80", "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "高利率平台期下AI基础设施与能源行业的估值重构与资本开支重配报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-20 (Asia/Singapore) 研究记录索引： 2/10 分析师： 首席策略师 立场： 支持", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4b06e34154dc/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300274.SZ", "002028.SZ", "300750.SZ", "002080.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a6599a3f5", "title": "新一代信息技术国产替代要从信创叙事进入算力、软件与安全订单验证", "titleEn": "Domestic IT substitution must move from policy narrative to compute, software, and security order proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a6599a3f5/", "laneId": "lane_e4f90acbf804", "lane": "信创/国产 IT 栈", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/domestic-it-substitution-stack/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "HBM 成本压力对 AI 算力集群 TCO 与扩容策略的传导效应：协同优化模型", "summary": "HBM 成本压力对 AI 算力集群 TCO 与扩容策略的传导效应：协同优化模型", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8af14f21d2aa/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "300308.SZ", "NVDA", "000977.SZ", "688008.SH", "688012.SH", "688111.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-241377c8be", "title": "显示材料改善需由利润率与现金流共同确认", "titleEn": "Display-material recovery requires joint margin and cash-flow confirmation", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-241377c8be/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 59, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "估值折价与仓位缓冲：全球AI记忆体交易的组合防御框架", "summary": "研究院工作日期： 2026-06-20 分析师： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 立场： 合成 (Synthesize — 综合前序研究研究，确立策略分配框架)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e93e1661fe9b/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "ASML", "000660.KS", "MU", "002916.SZ", "600552.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-603a5f7966", "title": "A 股硬科技与科创50的复苏需要订单、融资盘和指数结构共振", "titleEn": "A-share hard tech and STAR50 recovery needs orders, margin positioning, and index structure to align", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-603a5f7966/", "laneId": "lane_4cc1e74d8e5f", "lane": "A股硬科技/科创50", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-hard-tech-and-star50/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 56, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "Gamma去杠杆、CPO收入节奏下修收窄与电力基建对冲格局下的战术资产配置与防线重估报告", "summary": "Gamma去杠杆、CPO收入节奏下修收窄与电力基建对冲格局下的战术资产配置与防线重估报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-17f9fa081bbe/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "600900.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH", "300394.SZ", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-075017003b", "title": "AI 资本开支通过能源、设备和利率进入通胀定价", "titleEn": "AI capex enters inflation pricing through energy, equipment, and rates", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-075017003b/", "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08", "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 55, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "美国电力通胀黏性与美联储路径 - 2026-06-20", "summary": "截至权威工作日 2026-06-20 （Asia/Singapore； 系统日期锚 返回 2026-06-20 [自测算]），本报告 支持 前序研究主线：AI 驱动的电力需求、电网供给滞后与监管成本分摊，正在把美国电价从一...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-af0fa99fe7ac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "XLE", "TLT", "XLU", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-fd31cc177b", "title": "债券供给、地方债与久期需求决定利率下行空间", "titleEn": "Bond supply, local-government debt, and duration demand define room for rates to fall", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fd31cc177b/", "laneId": "lane_6fbf93c613f9", "lane": "债券供给/银行久期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/bond-supply-and-bank-duration/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 54, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "利率曲线波动与久期缩短策略的防御性评估", "summary": "利率曲线波动与久期缩短策略的防御性评估 报告日期： 2026-06-20（权威工作日） 全球宏观分析师： global-macro Global Macro Analyst 会议主题： 阿联酋退盟后OPEC+凝聚力与配额合规性压力测试...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2bfbc6b4e724/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601398.SH", "601939.SH", "601288.SH", "3988.HK", "600900.SH", "TLT", "IEF", "000001.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-08dd090dc9", "title": "公用事业从防御红利切换到电网扩容、容量费与信用再定价", "titleEn": "Utilities are shifting from defensive dividends to grid expansion, capacity fees, and credit repricing", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08dd090dc9/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 合同化发电资产防御力验证：CEG/NEE相对公用事业红利股的5%美债压力测试", "summary": "2026-06-20 合同化发电资产防御力验证：CEG/NEE相对公用事业红利股的5%美债压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-035fbafdc209/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "AEP", "600900.SH", "CEG", "DUK", "VST", "XLU", "META", "NEE", "SMR", "GEV" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c6c6be4745", "title": "中国出口制造的胜负手从低价扩张转向利润率、合规和本地化", "titleEn": "Chinese export manufacturing is shifting from low-price expansion to margin, compliance, and localization", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c6c6be4745/", "laneId": "lane_7e439482cbef", "lane": "中国出口制造/利润率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-export-manufacturing-and-margins/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "锂电关键材料：碳酸锂波动、电池厂利润率与供应压力 — 2026-06-20", "summary": "锂电关键材料：碳酸锂波动、电池厂利润率与供应压力 — 2026-06-20", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fc6ad2ef8d0a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "000333.SZ", "600690.SH", "300750.SZ", "002594.SZ", "600900.SH", "2313.HK", "002139.SZ", "002475.SZ", "2020.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-026aa1679b", "title": "云厂商自发电正在把 AI 交付风险转移到核电、燃气、电网与公用事业信用", "titleEn": "Cloud self-generation is shifting AI delivery risk into nuclear, gas, grid assets, and utility credit", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-026aa1679b/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 跨行业估值再平衡：AI芯片、数据中心电力资产与公用事业设备", "summary": "2026-06-20 跨行业估值再平衡：AI芯片、数据中心电力资产与公用事业设备", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3d3e82574a9f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "VST", "CEG", "GEV", "SMR", "META", "ETN", "MSFT", "AMZN", "AEP", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-740e729f22", "title": "人民币、美元与套息交易决定跨境风险资产的流动性折价", "titleEn": "RMB, USD, and carry trades define the liquidity discount across cross-border risk assets", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-740e729f22/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 47, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "美联储鹰派决议与日元贬值破161：全球日元套利交易（Carry Trade）无序逆转与跨境资金流出压力重估", "summary": "美联储鹰派决议与日元贬值破161：全球日元套利交易（Carry Trade）无序逆转与跨境资金流出压力重估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4c4cf58e7bda/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "3988.HK", "0700.HK", "UUP", "2800.HK", "9988.HK", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a803fa3312", "title": "美联储路径仍是全球资产再定价的总阀门", "titleEn": "The Fed path remains the master valve for global asset repricing", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a803fa3312/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 46, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "美联储高利率平台期下的美元/人民币波动与美中利差交易", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-20 (Asia/Singapore) 研究记录索引： 3/10 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 立场： 支持", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5c91b49656f8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "TLT", "JPM", "KRE", "GLD", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-1aaa752ed4", "title": "AI 电力与电网瓶颈仍是基础设施主线", "titleEn": "AI power and grid bottlenecks remain the infrastructure core", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-1aaa752ed4/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 45, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-20 跨行业估值再平衡：AI芯片、数据中心电力资产与公用事业设备", "summary": "2026-06-20 跨行业估值再平衡：AI芯片、数据中心电力资产与公用事业设备", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3d3e82574a9f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "META", "600089.SH", "MSFT", "601179.SH", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d6b2c23ed6", "title": "航运与物流成本是油价、关税和供应链再通胀的二阶传导器", "titleEn": "Shipping and logistics costs are a second-order transmission channel for oil, tariffs, and supply-chain reflation", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d6b2c23ed6/", "laneId": "lane_79a55cd8530e", "lane": "航运物流/再通胀传导", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/shipping-logistics-and-reflation-transmission/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "能源价格冲击的结构性影响：从霍尔木兹供给扰动到全球能源供应链的长期重塑", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-20 (Asia/Singapore) 研究记录索引： 2/10 分析师： 能源行业分析师 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b7278e30cdd1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601919.SH", "1919.HK", "ZIM", "MATX", "600026.SH", "600018.SH", "BOAT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4074d8a3d2", "title": "碳价、可再生能源与储能 CapEx 正在重塑电力资产回报", "titleEn": "Carbon pricing, renewables, and storage capex are reshaping power-asset returns", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4074d8a3d2/", "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80", "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏", "laneHref": 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