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2026-06-15：再通胀成立，但需求扩散尚未证实", "date": "2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-378b6148a797/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期 2026-06-15。作为 china-macro，我选择的问题是：中国最新价格、外贸、PMI、实体活动和工业利润数据，是否足以支持A股全面顺周期重估，还是只能支持更窄的外需链和高技术制造倾斜？国...", "tags": [ "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-18b49094074f", "title": "新华财经家装产业链研究卡 - 2026-06-15", "date": "2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-18b49094074f/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日 2026-06-15，本报告将新华财经家装产业链视为低覆盖链条，因为研究定义的近30日激活度为 14/201，即 7% [S0]。我对初始问题的判断是：当前不适合做家装产业链的全面贝塔判断...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-5e19683dcaee", "title": "研究质量审计报告：中美利差倒挂及流动性传导机制 (既有研究记录)", "date": "2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5e19683dcaee/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究质量审计报告：中美利差倒挂及流动性传导机制 (既有研究记录) 日期： 2026-06-15 审计官： QA Manager (研究质量主管) 审计对象： 既有研究记录 最终评级： 通过 (PASS -...", "tags": [ "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-f3d7687360e0", "title": "出口管制约束下硅光子、CPO 及高速光芯片的供应链安全与国产替代进程", "date": "2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f3d7687360e0/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究研究记录 · 分析师： 半导体分析师 · 立场： 支持 工作日（机构基准日）： 2026-06-15（亚洲/新加坡） 议程根主题： 七月政治局会议前瞻——二季度信用脉冲与财政姿态 主题： 出口管制约...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-bfd8707d473d", "title": "海洋经济智能化转型：海底数据中心与AI算力基础设施的布局研究", "date": "2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bfd8707d473d/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "海洋经济智能化转型：海底数据中心与AI算力基础设施的布局研究 报告日期：2026-06-15 分析师：AI基础设施分析师 (ai-infrastructure-analyst) 立场：支持 (Support)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-8153214608bf", "title": "存量房“以旧换新”能否抵消地产下行贝塔：东鹏与家装龙头验证", "date": "2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8153214608bf/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-06-15。 本报告支持前序“类债阿尔法”判断，但边界需要收紧：存量房局改与以旧换新政策能够支撑东鹏控股（003012.SZ）等龙头的零售现金流，却不能完全消除新房销售、竣工和建材...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-40b4393ee268", "title": "餐饮B端采购“低端化”对上游农产品及调味品/啤酒核心原料需求结构的影响", "date": "2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-40b4393ee268/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "分析日期： 2026-06-15 报告作者： 农业行业分析师 (Agriculture Analyst) 本报告立场： 支持 (Support) 关联板块： 大众刚需食品饮料、农业种植与深加工、包装与供应链", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-09e31a04a4ba", "title": "压力测试：AI 算力扩张与电力供给成本韧性的匹配度", "date": "2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-09e31a04a4ba/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师（ 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截至2026年6月15日，本报告对“算力向西部迁移”的经济性与技术可行性进行了压力测试。研究发现，虽然东部电网并网难度增加（并网周期9-18个月 [S3]）正迫使算力物理重心向西偏移，但...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-4f920886d7da", "title": "资本开支“能源化”与云利润率：截至2026-06-15的TMT评估", "date": "2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4f920886d7da/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "本文以研究所权威工作日 2026-06-15 为锚。本人支持前序研究的判断：AI基础设施瓶颈正在从单纯芯片供给，迁移到电力、冷却、并网接入与资产负债表承载力；对TMT行业的含义是，云利润率不会立刻...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-a420b8b96a62", "title": "高质量服务消费估值溢价与风格配置 - 2026-06-15", "date": "2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a420b8b96a62/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日 2026-06-15，我支持前序研究结论，但需要把它收束成组合规则：华住、同程旅行、特海国际不能作为酒店餐饮休闲的宽基 beta 买入，而应作为高质量成长卫星仓持有；其估值溢价只...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-fd02a92f1118", "title": "地产残余贝塔冲击下的“类债阿尔法”卫星仓风险预算控制", "date": "2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fd02a92f1118/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "· 首席策略师 · 工作日期：2026-06-15（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：压力测试（STRESS-TEST） —— 压测前序研究关于东鹏类标的可作为“类债阿尔法卫星”、而非“公用事业核心替代”的判断。", "tags": [ "AI", "A股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-b08ae3eae3c7", "title": "家装产业链研究队列 - 工作日期 2026-06-15", "date": "2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b08ae3eae3c7/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至机构工作日期 2026-06-15，本报告是对初始研究问题的综合，不是对前序研究的复盘，因为本轮为 既有研究记录，且本地未找到题述工作区 brief 文件。题述研究将“新华财经-家装产业链...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-cd5f8bd8cfee", "title": "美国电网扩容瓶颈与独立发电商、核电及新能源的盈利弹性", "date": "2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cd5f8bd8cfee/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师: 公用事业分析师 工作日期: 2026-06-15(亚洲/新加坡) · 立场: 综合(基于研究记录01延展) 会话主题: 瓶颈转移——2026下半年全球AI基础设施电网约束加剧", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-ccf894a2674a", "title": "工业自动化升级对边缘算力与能源基础设施的需求传导", "date": "2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ccf894a2674a/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工业自动化升级对边缘算力与能源基础设施的需求传导 日期：2026-06-15 分析师：AI基础设施分析师 (AI Infrastructure Analyst) 当前立场：支持 (Support)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-1b4e7eb4faf2", "title": "煤价反弹对火电公用事业盈利与电价传导的压力测试", "date": "2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1b4e7eb4faf2/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "1. 核心观点 本报告片综合宏观流动性冲击与公用事业基本面，对火电板块进行压力测试。我们认为， 火电公用事业凭借2026年全面升级的容量电价机制，能够充分吸收本轮煤价反弹的成本压力。 结合上...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-92ac1a94ddf9", "title": "芯片能效比 vs. 基础设施瓶颈：AI 算力中的“杰文斯悖论”", "date": "2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-92ac1a94ddf9/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "日期： 2026-06-15 分析师： 半导体行业分析师 (Semiconductors Analyst) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test，评估“技术进步能否对冲基建瓶颈”) 研究记录", "tags": [ "AI", "港美股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-ee0eec6afa60", "title": "资料来源 / Sources", "date": "2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ee0eec6afa60/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "主题： 贸易保护主义与关税升级对电力设备“绕道贸易”有效性的冲击 分析师： 主题研究员 (thematic-researcher) 立场： stress-test 工作日期： 2026-06-15", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-29e81c43a40d", "title": "酒店、餐馆与休闲产业链初筛 - 2026-06-15", "date": "2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-29e81c43a40d/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日 2026-06-15，本报告是本研究的前序研究，尚无已完成前序研究可供支持或反驳。本报告形成初始综合判断：酒店、餐馆与休闲产业链在本工作区属于低覆盖主题，提示词上下文给出的...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-33ac7a54bdf1", "title": "A股市场结构与两融数据视角的流动性缓冲空间评估报告", "date": "2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-33ac7a54bdf1/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "A股市场结构与两融数据视角的流动性缓冲空间评估报告 工作日期: 2026-06-17 分析师: 首席策略师 (chief-strategist) 当前立场: 压力测试 (stress-test)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "A股", "港美股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-ca4011deed5c", "title": "截至2026-06-15的AI算力基础设施电力成本压力测试", "date": "2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ca4011deed5c/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "报告日期: 2026-06-15 分析师: AI Infrastructure Analyst 立场: stress-test 研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] 研究记录", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-82b76c107558", "title": "中国央行“结构性对冲”工具对A股流动性分化与信用利差的传导机制", "date": "2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-82b76c107558/", "analyst": "未识别", 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"title": "英伟达200亿美元发债与2026年全球数据中心Capex破万亿的产业信号", "question": "英伟达超预期发债与Rubin架构的推进，对2026下半年全球AI基础设施Capex与能源供给侧有何实质性影响？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "AI基础设施分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "2026年6月FOMC前瞻：能源冲击、CPI上行与沃什治下的美联储", "question": "面对4.2%的总体CPI与108美元的布伦特原油，新任主席沃什将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上如何调整点阵图与政策立场？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席经济学家", "noteCount": 9, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "6月FOMC与美国通胀再加速下的higher-for-longer风险", "question": "全球投资者应把6月16-17日FOMC视为温和按兵不动，还是视为能源驱动通胀回升迫使Fed把近期降息选项移出桌面的政策会议？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席经济学家", "noteCount": 9, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI 效率重定价：DeepSeek V4 是否终结了“算力至上”叙事？", "question": "DeepSeek V4 的永久折扣与效率提升是否标志着 AI 估值逻辑从‘资源型’向‘效率型’的范式转移？这对英伟达的长期需求曲线有何冲击？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI交易从算力扩散到电力瓶颈：下周该换篮子吗", "question": "在SMH仍上涨但PWR、GEV、CEG、URA、XLU相对更强的背景下，组合应从纯GPU/软件AI转向电力、核能、工程建设和冷却篮子，还是把它视为风险偏好修复的一日扩散？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI资本开支沿链下沉到电力/电网/散热:是抗轮动的耐久范式还是晚周期拥挤?", "question": "当资金撤出芯片与超大盘成长时,AI capex 向公用事业/电气设备/液冷迁移这条线,是能跨越本轮轮动的耐久跨板块范式,还是又一处晚周期拥挤交易?下周该如何在'BoJ 鹰...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "FOMC 6/17 的『hawkish skip』情景对当前 risk-on 结构的破坏力", "question": "5 月 FOMC 出现 1992 年以来首次 8-4 分歧、CPI 仍在 4.2%，但市场仍以 SKEW 142.6 + 选择性 risk-on(XLK/XLC) 定价。若 6/17 出现『hold + 点阵图上修 2026 终...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "SpaceX首秀后的成长股龙头虹吸", "question": "SPCX的散户热度是在重新点燃AI/太空/防务风险偏好，还是在从旧太空代理股和半导体beta中虹吸流动性？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "即时零售折扣化与理性平替下的消费红利防御重构", "question": "在信用卡违约创15年新高与美团闪购等即时折扣挤压利润的背景下，A股消费板块应如何从普五倒挂等高端可选撤出，向高股息大众防御（海天、青企）重构防线？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "美伊和平交易是否已被散户过度定价", "question": "油价、旅行股、指数期货和政治代理股是否已把2026-06-19签署与Hormuz通航当成既成事实？ Prior related institute work to acknowledge and BUILD ON (do not re...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "中国宏观脉冲：价格、外贸、PMI、实体活动和利润数据是否支持A股顺周期重估", "question": "截至2026-06-15，中国最新价格、外贸、PMI、实体活动和工业利润数据是否足以支持A股全面顺周期重估，还是只能支持更窄的外需链和高技术制造倾斜？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "中国宏观分析师", "noteCount": 6, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "G7 Évian 公报对中国出口链与临界矿物的同步定价含义", "question": "G7 峰会 6/15–6/17 在 Évian 举行，议程包括 Hormuz 安排、美国 Section 122 关税 7/24 到期、临界矿物去中国化、欧盟 Section 301 化跟进。若公报偏鹰（关税...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 1, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" } ], "thesisEvents": [ { "id": "thesis-d03c2555a8", "title": "美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美伊和平协议拟重开霍尔木兹海峡，导致原油价格破位（Brent 79.49，WTI <78）。在能化大宗商品面临通缩压力的背景下，A股“红…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d03c2555a8/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "红利低波赎回压力下的煤炭基本面韧性 — 2026-06-15", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-15（Asia/Singapore 研究院权威工作日期） 研究记录 当前立场： 压力测试 分析师角色： 能源行业分析师", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1b0601df42b6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "能源类高股息资产分红可持续性与红利定价红线的压力测试", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-15（Asia/Singapore） - 分析师：能源行业分析师 - 立场：stress-test（对research note提出的\"红利股债利差红线下移至200–250bps\"的分子端进行能源板块压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e07349ff469d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-15 - 能源研究片：供应扰动是大宗商品通胀的传导主线", "summary": "元数据： 工作日期 2026-06-15 Asia/Singapore；分析师 energy-analyst；立场 support；；研究记录。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-742144542a4f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "原油价格风险情景及其对二次通胀路径的影响 — 2026-06-15", "summary": "截至研究院工作日 2026-06-15 （亚洲/新加坡时区），本报告片由 energy-analyst 撰写，对上一张 global-macro 开篇卡（research note）进行 压力测试（stress-test）。research note 认为 2026-...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6dcfa1e9eab7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2e367ef854", "title": "美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2e367ef854/", "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08", "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "全球宏观：美国5月CPI与6月FOMC前瞻", "summary": "全球宏观：美国5月CPI与6月FOMC前瞻 日期： 2026-06-15 分析师： global-macro", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-18f81f8cd7ec/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-06-15 全球宏观研究记录：6月FOMC前的美国通胀冲击", "summary": "工作日期锚定：2026-06-15，Asia/Singapore。分析师： global-macro。研究问题：在2026年5月CPI与劳动力市场数据公布后，2026年6月16-17日FOMC会验证全球利率的“higher-for-longer”状态，还是...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-83485904c199/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-15 - 首席经济学家开局卡：能源驱动通胀再加速后的6月FOMC按兵不动倾向", "summary": "2026-06-15 - 首席经济学家开局卡：能源驱动通胀再加速后的6月FOMC按兵不动倾向", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c61d26455d90/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026年6月FOMC前瞻：能源冲击、CPI上行与沃什治下的美联储", "summary": "Date: 2026-06-15 Author: chief-economist", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1430d52b3aa2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "XLE", "XLU", "TLT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c89650af9e", "title": "酒店餐饮休闲复苏正在从客流修复转向 RevPAR、翻台率与小盘 Alpha", "titleEn": "Leisure, hotels, and restaurants are moving from traffic recovery to RevPAR, table turnover, and small-cap alpha", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c89650af9e/", "laneId": "lane_dd5a3eb17672", "lane": "酒店餐饮休闲/服务消费", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/hotels-restaurants-leisure-and-services-consumption/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 2, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-15 宏观校验：服务消费韧性与下沉出行需求", "summary": "截至工作日 2026-06-15，我对上一张消费行业研究记录做综合而非推翻：宏观数据支持把 Atour 、 Tongcheng Travel 、 Super Hi 纳入正式研究队列，但只支持个股研究，不支持酒店、餐饮、休闲板块...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c5643c325a1d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "高质量服务消费估值溢价与风格配置 - 2026-06-15", "summary": "截至研究所工作日 2026-06-15，我支持前序研究结论，但需要把它收束成组合规则：华住、同程旅行、特海国际不能作为酒店餐饮休闲的宽基 beta 买入，而应作为高质量成长卫星仓持有；其估值溢价只...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a420b8b96a62/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "产业链速览：酒店、餐馆与休闲", "summary": "· 消费行业分析师 (consumer-analyst) 工作日期：2026-06-15（亚洲/新加坡）· 立场：initial（首发） 根主题：酒店、餐馆与休闲产业链 — 30 日激活率 9.3%（9/97），研究不足", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-24e6b8595640/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "酒店、餐馆与休闲产业链初筛 - 2026-06-15", "summary": "截至研究院工作日 2026-06-15，本报告是本研究的前序研究，尚无已完成前序研究可供支持或反驳。本报告形成初始综合判断：酒店、餐馆与休闲产业链在本工作区属于低覆盖主题，提示词上下文给出的...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-29e81c43a40d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "9922.HK", "3690.HK", "001215.SZ", "YUMC", "300144.SZ", "1179.HK", "0780.HK", "605108.SH", "9658.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4f2d0121d3", "title": "高利润率出口材料企业需等待利润修复确认", "titleEn": "High-margin export materials require confirmation of profit recovery", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f2d0121d3/", "laneId": "lane_7e439482cbef", "lane": "中国出口制造/利润率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-export-manufacturing-and-margins/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 0, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "验证特定消费个股的经营杠杆与利润率韧性", "summary": "研究板块/Topic : 验证特定消费个股的经营杠杆与利润率韧性 - 报告日期/Date : 2026-06-15 - 分析师/Analyst : consumer-analyst (消费行业分析师) - 看板 ID/研究线程标识：已归档", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1d6351888cc5/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-15 压力测试：商业化创新药利润率能否抵消医保/集采与 OAS/FX 压力？", "summary": "2026-06-15 压力测试：商业化创新药利润率能否抵消医保/集采与 OAS/FX 压力？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-62643c314c74/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "压力测试\"一带一路\"目的地风险：GCC／印度／印尼贸易壁垒对东鹏海外利润率的侵蚀", "summary": "压力测试\"一带一路\"目的地风险：GCC／印度／印尼贸易壁垒对东鹏海外利润率的侵蚀", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b2261801c217/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 压力测试：CBAM/EUDR 与 AD/CVD 合规成本对家装龙头海外利润率的侵蚀", "summary": "前序研究 — 压力测试：CBAM/EUDR 与 AD/CVD 合规成本对家装龙头海外利润率的侵蚀", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e9e7d14ac83a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600690.SH", "000333.SZ", "600900.SH", "002139.SZ", "2313.HK", "605183.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c6c6be4745", "title": "中国出口制造的胜负手从低价扩张转向利润率、合规和本地化", "titleEn": "Chinese export manufacturing is shifting from low-price expansion to margin, compliance, and localization", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c6c6be4745/", "laneId": "lane_7e439482cbef", "lane": "中国出口制造/利润率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-export-manufacturing-and-margins/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 0, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "验证特定消费个股的经营杠杆与利润率韧性", "summary": "研究板块/Topic : 验证特定消费个股的经营杠杆与利润率韧性 - 报告日期/Date : 2026-06-15 - 分析师/Analyst : consumer-analyst (消费行业分析师) - 看板 ID/研究线程标识：已归档", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1d6351888cc5/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-15 压力测试：商业化创新药利润率能否抵消医保/集采与 OAS/FX 压力？", "summary": "2026-06-15 压力测试：商业化创新药利润率能否抵消医保/集采与 OAS/FX 压力？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-62643c314c74/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "压力测试\"一带一路\"目的地风险：GCC／印度／印尼贸易壁垒对东鹏海外利润率的侵蚀", "summary": "压力测试\"一带一路\"目的地风险：GCC／印度／印尼贸易壁垒对东鹏海外利润率的侵蚀", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b2261801c217/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 压力测试：CBAM/EUDR 与 AD/CVD 合规成本对家装龙头海外利润率的侵蚀", "summary": "前序研究 — 压力测试：CBAM/EUDR 与 AD/CVD 合规成本对家装龙头海外利润率的侵蚀", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e9e7d14ac83a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "000333.SZ", "600690.SH", "300750.SZ", "002594.SZ", "600900.SH", "2313.HK", "002139.SZ", "002475.SZ", "2020.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-59f298ff36", "title": "在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-59f298ff36/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 84, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略专题研究报告：国产算力订单爆发与两融去杠杆冲击下的板块再平衡与机构筹码重构评估", "summary": "A股策略专题研究报告：国产算力订单爆发与两融去杠杆冲击下的板块再平衡与机构筹码重构评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e5299f4f3f8d/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "大类资产配置研究报告：零Gamma突破后科技成长与物理红利资产的动态风险平价权重分配，及指数看跌...", "summary": "大类资产配置研究报告：零Gamma突破后科技成长与物理红利资产的动态风险平价权重分配，及指数看跌期权对冲成本对长期Sharpe的拖累测算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4d44821694a3/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-15 A股市场结构验证：航天行情广度、两融与半导体Beta", "summary": "2026-06-15 A股市场结构验证：航天行情广度、两融与半导体Beta", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d5fbd050f0ad/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a7f43e67af", "title": "在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a7f43e67af/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026年6月FOMC前瞻：能源冲击、CPI上行与沃什治下的美联储", "summary": "Date: 2026-06-15 Author: chief-economist", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1430d52b3aa2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "全球宏观：美国5月CPI与6月FOMC前瞻", "summary": "全球宏观：美国5月CPI与6月FOMC前瞻 日期： 2026-06-15 分析师： global-macro", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-18f81f8cd7ec/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "研究记录 · 终局质量审计 — 2026-06-15美国通胀、油价风险与6月FOMC反应函数", "summary": "研究记录 · 终局质量审计 — 2026-06-15美国通胀、油价风险与6月FOMC反应函数", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e627a6cfeab/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4749f7193b", "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4749f7193b/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "summary": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e89563218c33/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力是真正的约束：电网与配电设备瓶颈 vs. AI算力集群建设与超大规模云厂商资本开支", "summary": "电力是真正的约束：电网与配电设备瓶颈 vs. AI算力集群建设与超大规模云厂商资本开支", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-55f7bca6e455/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-15 公用事业压力测试：电力配额、变压器与清洁能源消纳成为 AI 算力瓶颈", "summary": "2026-06-15 公用事业压力测试：电力配额、变压器与清洁能源消纳成为 AI 算力瓶颈", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-818b6792bc9a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "601985.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-40b8638803", "title": "全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-40b8638803/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-15 A股市场结构验证：航天行情广度、两融与半导体Beta", "summary": "2026-06-15 A股市场结构验证：航天行情广度、两融与半导体Beta", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d5fbd050f0ad/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI芯片先进封装与HBM供需瓶颈分析：算力扩张的物理极限", "summary": "AI芯片先进封装与HBM供需瓶颈分析：算力扩张的物理极限 作者 : 半导体行业分析师 ( semiconductors-analyst ) 分析日期 : 2026年6月15日 (June 15, 2026) 研究讨论 ID : 7e4e4910-b914-4aab-adf...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d84e690d609a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI芯片竞争格局：ASIC侵蚀风险与商用GPU基本面评估", "summary": "日期（机构工作日）： 2026-06-15 （亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师：半导体分析师 - 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） - 主题：商用GPU面临的ASIC份额侵蚀，及主要超大规模云商（Hyperscalers）定制ASI...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-13690a25b2b4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "000660.KS", "MU", "688012.SH", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f3989d02c5", "title": "全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f3989d02c5/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "东南亚与中东算力扩张的“水-电”物理瓶颈：评估水利与电网基建压力对算力中心部署完整性的影响", "summary": "东南亚与中东算力扩张的“水-电”物理瓶颈：评估水利与电网基建压力对算力中心部署完整性的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1a52b63e2cb7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI算力、电力基础设施与物理上限风险", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-06-15 分析师： AI基础设施分析师 立场： stress-test 研究记录 问题： 全球电力供应与电网基础设施扩张速度，是否足以支撑AI芯片需求增长带来的算力密度提升，能源约束是否会...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e59140c9f04f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电网扩容速度与ASIC能效提升带来的算力密度增长之间的匹配性", "summary": "｜ 研究记录 ｜ 日期：2026-06-15 分析师：公用事业分析师 (Utilities Analyst) ｜ 立场：压力测试 (Stress-test) 核心问题：电力基础设施的扩容速度能否跟上由ASIC能效革命驱动的算力密度扩张...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f0c8f7761cc5/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "META", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bc1d8e9af8", "title": "Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bc1d8e9af8/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-15 全球宏观研究记录：6月FOMC前的美国通胀冲击", "summary": "工作日期锚定：2026-06-15，Asia/Singapore。分析师： global-macro。研究问题：在2026年5月CPI与劳动力市场数据公布后，2026年6月16-17日FOMC会验证全球利率的“higher-for-longer”状态，还是...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-83485904c199/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026年6月FOMC前瞻：能源冲击、CPI上行与沃什治下的美联储", "summary": "Date: 2026-06-15 Author: chief-economist", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1430d52b3aa2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "非鸽派美联储暂停与能源通胀冲击下的全球均衡组合再配置报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-15 分析师： 首席策略师 立场： 综合 (Synthesize) 研究记录索引： 2/10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-765c4d2ad6b1/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9d3836cc07", "title": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "titleEn": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d3836cc07/", "laneId": "lane_008e3bd9306a", "lane": "AI 软件效率/生产率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-software-productivity/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 58, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "AI 基础设施的演变：ASIC 转型下的电力与能效挑战", "summary": "｜ 研究记录 ｜ 日期：2026-06-15 分析师：AI基础设施分析师 (AI Infrastructure Analyst) ｜ 立场：支持 (Support)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d7242b9348d9/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI 基础设施韧性分析：“物理墙”与“主权 AI 税”", "summary": "AI 基础设施韧性分析：“物理墙”与“主权 AI 税” 日期： 2026-06-15 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师 (codex) 状态： 压力测试 / 研究深挖", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-06b582159e6d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI芯片竞争格局：ASIC侵蚀风险与商用GPU基本面评估", "summary": "日期（机构工作日）： 2026-06-15 （亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师：半导体分析师 - 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） - 主题：商用GPU面临的ASIC份额侵蚀，及主要超大规模云商（Hyperscalers）定制ASI...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-13690a25b2b4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "NVDA", "NOW", "CRM", "ADBE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3d421524cd", "title": "油价地缘底线决定再通胀与降息交易的安全边际", "titleEn": "The geopolitical oil floor defines the margin of safety for disinflation and rate-cut trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3d421524cd/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 50, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录 · 终局质量审计 — 2026-06-15美国通胀、油价风险与6月FOMC反应函数", "summary": "研究记录 · 终局质量审计 — 2026-06-15美国通胀、油价风险与6月FOMC反应函数", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e627a6cfeab/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "能源类高股息资产分红可持续性与红利定价红线的压力测试", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-15（Asia/Singapore） - 分析师：能源行业分析师 - 立场：stress-test（对research note提出的\"红利股债利差红线下移至200–250bps\"的分子端进行能源板块压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e07349ff469d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "原油价格风险情景及其对二次通胀路径的影响 — 2026-06-15", "summary": "截至研究院工作日 2026-06-15 （亚洲/新加坡时区），本报告片由 energy-analyst 撰写，对上一张 global-macro 开篇卡（research note）进行 压力测试（stress-test）。research note 认为 2026-...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6dcfa1e9eab7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CME", "CVX", "XOM", "600938.SH", "600900.SH", "0857.HK", "COP", "601857.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-026aa1679b", "title": "云厂商自发电正在把 AI 交付风险转移到核电、燃气、电网与公用事业信用", "titleEn": "Cloud self-generation is shifting AI delivery risk into nuclear, gas, grid assets, and utility credit", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-026aa1679b/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "若真正瓶颈是firm power rights而非GPU——稀缺性溢价向何处迁移，谁该被折价", "summary": "若真正瓶颈是firm power rights而非GPU——稀缺性溢价向何处迁移，谁该被折价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d64659fc0643/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "美国电网扩容瓶颈与独立发电商、核电及新能源的盈利弹性", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师: 公用事业分析师 工作日期: 2026-06-15(亚洲/新加坡) · 立场: 综合(基于研究记录01延展) 会话主题: 瓶颈转移——2026下半年全球AI基础设施电网约束加剧", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cd5f8bd8cfee/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "summary": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e89563218c33/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "VST", "CEG", "GEV", "SMR", "META", "ETN", "MSFT", "AMZN", "AEP", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-aa97a5c1b3", "title": "家装链的胜负手在存量房翻新、国补触达与地产后周期库存去化", "titleEn": "Home improvement depends on existing-home renovation, subsidy reach, and post-property inventory digestion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-aa97a5c1b3/", "laneId": "lane_1efa26c729b6", "lane": "家装/地产后周期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/home-improvement-and-post-property-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "存量房“以旧换新”能否抵消地产下行贝塔：东鹏与家装龙头验证", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-15。 本报告支持前序“类债阿尔法”判断，但边界需要收紧：存量房局改与以旧换新政策能够支撑东鹏控股（003012.SZ）等龙头的零售现金流，却不能完全消除新房销售、竣工和建材...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8153214608bf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "家装轻工与建材板块的估值重塑：定价“局改现金流”的结构性阿尔法", "summary": "核心观点 (Thesis) 在地产增量β（新房开工）持续下行的背景下，以 东鹏控股 (003012.SZ) 与 箭牌家居 (001322.SZ) 为首的家装龙头正在通过“局改换新”重塑业务底层逻辑。这种从“周期品种”向...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9e86db617c1e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "家装产业链研究队列 - 工作日期 2026-06-15", "summary": "截至机构工作日期 2026-06-15，本报告是对初始研究问题的综合，不是对前序研究的复盘，因为本轮为 既有研究记录，且本地未找到题述工作区 brief 文件。题述研究将“新华财经-家装产业链...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b08ae3eae3c7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002572.SZ", "603833.SH", "603816.SH", "600690.SH", "LOW", "000333.SZ", "002043.SZ", "603801.SH", "002508.SZ", "001322.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-58f268edf9", "title": "隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-58f268edf9/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-15 A股市场结构验证：航天行情广度、两融与半导体Beta", "summary": "2026-06-15 A股市场结构验证：航天行情广度、两融与半导体Beta", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d5fbd050f0ad/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "研究报告：SpaceX 虹吸效应 — 航天板块走强与宽基半导体 Beta 的脱钩分析", "summary": "研究报告：SpaceX 虹吸效应 — 航天板块走强与宽基半导体 Beta 的脱钩分析", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-212d3820d3d2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a60b131c8c", "title": "面对4.2%的总体CPI与108美元的布伦特原油，新任主席沃什将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上如何调整点阵图与政策立场？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 面对4.2%的总体CPI与108美元的布伦特原油，新任主席沃什将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上如何调整点阵图与政策立场？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a60b131c8c/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026年6月FOMC前瞻：能源冲击、CPI上行与沃什治下的美联储", "summary": "Date: 2026-06-15 Author: chief-economist", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1430d52b3aa2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "原油价格风险情景及其对二次通胀路径的影响 — 2026-06-15", "summary": "截至研究院工作日 2026-06-15 （亚洲/新加坡时区），本报告片由 energy-analyst 撰写，对上一张 global-macro 开篇卡（research note）进行 压力测试（stress-test）。research note 认为 2026-...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6dcfa1e9eab7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0e8748c14f", "title": "科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e8748c14f/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略专题研究报告：国产算力订单爆发与两融去杠杆冲击下的板块再平衡与机构筹码重构评估", "summary": "A股策略专题研究报告：国产算力订单爆发与两融去杠杆冲击下的板块再平衡与机构筹码重构评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e5299f4f3f8d/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-06-15 A股市场结构验证：航天行情广度、两融与半导体Beta", "summary": "2026-06-15 A股市场结构验证：航天行情广度、两融与半导体Beta", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d5fbd050f0ad/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH", "688012.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b6e4c7b469", "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b6e4c7b469/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "summary": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e89563218c33/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力是真正的约束：电网与配电设备瓶颈 vs. AI算力集群建设与超大规模云厂商资本开支", "summary": "电力是真正的约束：电网与配电设备瓶颈 vs. AI算力集群建设与超大规模云厂商资本开支", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-55f7bca6e455/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f62e29bf1c", "title": "在SpaceX将于6月12日进行股权交易且美债高企下，太空经济是否已告别散户概念炒作，转向由SpaceX价格伞、国防合同与垂直整合总装定…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在SpaceX将于6月12日进行股权交易且美债高企下，太空经济是否已告别散户概念炒作，转向由SpaceX价格伞、国防合同与垂直整合总装定…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f62e29bf1c/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "研究报告：SpaceX 虹吸效应 — 航天板块走强与宽基半导体 Beta 的脱钩分析", "summary": "研究报告：SpaceX 虹吸效应 — 航天板块走强与宽基半导体 Beta 的脱钩分析", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-212d3820d3d2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-15 策略报告：SpaceX 的 SPCX 首秀后，成长龙头的流动性虹吸", "summary": "2026-06-15 策略报告：SpaceX 的 SPCX 首秀后，成长龙头的流动性虹吸", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a02ea9b082cf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600118.SH", "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "300762.SZ", "LUNR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4ad776c10c", "title": "地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4ad776c10c/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "非鸽派美联储暂停与能源通胀冲击下的全球均衡组合再配置报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-15 分析师： 首席策略师 立场： 综合 (Synthesize) 研究记录索引： 2/10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-765c4d2ad6b1/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "AI资本开支的宏观溢出效应：利率免疫性投资与美联储“更高更长”的政策路径", "summary": "AI资本开支的宏观溢出效应：利率免疫性投资与美联储“更高更长”的政策路径", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0ed9a945e0d9/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c71e511c1c", "title": "电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c71e511c1c/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026年半导体策略：跨越“电力墙”与能效霸权的崛起", "summary": "日期： 2026-06-15 分析师： 半导体分析师 行业： 半导体 / 先进封装 / AI硬件 立场： 支持（能效驱动型创新的战略性加速）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a9359bf53aed/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "AI芯片先进封装与HBM供需瓶颈分析：算力扩张的物理极限", "summary": "AI芯片先进封装与HBM供需瓶颈分析：算力扩张的物理极限 作者 : 半导体行业分析师 ( semiconductors-analyst ) 分析日期 : 2026年6月15日 (June 15, 2026) 研究讨论 ID : 7e4e4910-b914-4aab-adf...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d84e690d609a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "PWR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2a12467f9b", "title": "卫星电源壁垒需由发射节奏和单星价值量持续验证", "titleEn": "Satellite-power barriers require continued validation through launch cadence and content per spacecraft", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2a12467f9b/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-15 策略报告：SpaceX 的 SPCX 首秀后，成长龙头的流动性虹吸", "summary": "2026-06-15 策略报告：SpaceX 的 SPCX 首秀后，成长龙头的流动性虹吸", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a02ea9b082cf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "商业航天与军工产业链的价值重估：验证“龙头虹吸”下的供应链承接能力", "summary": "商业航天与军工产业链的价值重估：验证“龙头虹吸”下的供应链承接能力 研报日期：2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dc93f1e5824b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "600118.SH", "IRDM", "RDW", "LUNR", "LMT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d8170c3a35", "title": "近海资本开支与设备利用率驱动油服盈利弹性", "titleEn": "Offshore capex and equipment utilization drive oilfield-service earnings leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d8170c3a35/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录 · 终局质量审计 — 2026-06-15美国通胀、油价风险与6月FOMC反应函数", "summary": "研究记录 · 终局质量审计 — 2026-06-15美国通胀、油价风险与6月FOMC反应函数", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e627a6cfeab/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "能源类高股息资产分红可持续性与红利定价红线的压力测试", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-15（Asia/Singapore） - 分析师：能源行业分析师 - 立场：stress-test（对research note提出的\"红利股债利差红线下移至200–250bps\"的分子端进行能源板块压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e07349ff469d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CVX", "XOM", "0883.HK", "COP", "2883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0", "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层", "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI芯片竞争格局：ASIC侵蚀风险与商用GPU基本面评估", "summary": "日期（机构工作日）： 2026-06-15 （亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师：半导体分析师 - 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） - 主题：商用GPU面临的ASIC份额侵蚀，及主要超大规模云商（Hyperscalers）定制ASI...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-13690a25b2b4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI 基础设施的演变：ASIC 转型下的电力与能效挑战", "summary": "｜ 研究记录 ｜ 日期：2026-06-15 分析师：AI基础设施分析师 (AI Infrastructure Analyst) ｜ 立场：支持 (Support)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d7242b9348d9/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "TSM", "AVGO", "AAPL", "TSLA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-612f83a611", "title": "地缘原油冲击导致的通胀传导（推升核心PCE至4.16%）将促使无前瞻指引的沃什美联储通过在9月和年底连续加息两次（至4.00%–4.25…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘原油冲击导致的通胀传导（推升核心PCE至4.16%）将促使无前瞻指引的沃什美联储通过在9月和年底连续加息两次（至4.00%–4.25…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-612f83a611/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026年6月FOMC前瞻：能源冲击、CPI上行与沃什治下的美联储", "summary": "Date: 2026-06-15 Author: chief-economist", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1430d52b3aa2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-15 全球宏观研究记录：6月FOMC前的美国通胀冲击", "summary": "工作日期锚定：2026-06-15，Asia/Singapore。分析师： global-macro。研究问题：在2026年5月CPI与劳动力市场数据公布后，2026年6月16-17日FOMC会验证全球利率的“higher-for-longer”状态，还是...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-83485904c199/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-70daf87262", "title": "A 股红利与硬科技杠铃仍是政策、利率和风险偏好的组合表达", "titleEn": "A-share dividend and hard-tech barbell remains the portfolio expression of policy, rates, and risk appetite", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-70daf87262/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "strengthening", "directionLabel": "强化", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "银行红利压力测试：周期下行与注资摊薄下的底仓防御上限与安全边际重估", "summary": "报告日期：2026-06-15 分析师：financials-analyst (金融行业分析师) 本期评估立场：压力测试 (Stress-test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-96c086986a79/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股红利拥挤交易微观结构压力测试 — 2026-06-15", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-15（Asia/Singapore 研究院权威工作日期） 研究记录 当前立场： 压力测试 分析师角色： 首席策略师", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f52f1b3d0465/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601398.SH", "601088.SH", "600941.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "601939.SH", "510880.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8bbbcdf5a4", "title": "GPU、HBM 与先进封装决定 AI 资本开支供给节奏", "titleEn": "GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging shape the AI capex supply cycle", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8bbbcdf5a4/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI芯片先进封装与HBM供需瓶颈分析：算力扩张的物理极限", "summary": "AI芯片先进封装与HBM供需瓶颈分析：算力扩张的物理极限 作者 : 半导体行业分析师 ( semiconductors-analyst ) 分析日期 : 2026年6月15日 (June 15, 2026) 研究讨论 ID : 7e4e4910-b914-4aab-adf...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d84e690d609a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "芯片能效比 vs. 基础设施瓶颈：AI 算力中的“杰文斯悖论”", "summary": "日期： 2026-06-15 分析师： 半导体行业分析师 (Semiconductors Analyst) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test，评估“技术进步能否对冲基建瓶颈”) 研究记录", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-92ac1a94ddf9/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "META", "AMD", "AVGO", "MU", "MSFT", "000660.KS", "GOOGL", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-100e81e234", "title": "AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-100e81e234/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026年半导体策略：跨越“电力墙”与能效霸权的崛起", "summary": "日期： 2026-06-15 分析师： 半导体分析师 行业： 半导体 / 先进封装 / AI硬件 立场： 支持（能效驱动型创新的战略性加速）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a9359bf53aed/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "AI芯片先进封装与HBM供需瓶颈分析：算力扩张的物理极限", "summary": "AI芯片先进封装与HBM供需瓶颈分析：算力扩张的物理极限 作者 : 半导体行业分析师 ( semiconductors-analyst ) 分析日期 : 2026年6月15日 (June 15, 2026) 研究讨论 ID : 7e4e4910-b914-4aab-adf...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d84e690d609a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f5d7a79c82", "title": "HBM4、CoWoS 与背面供电正在成为 AI 服务器需求曲线的串行闸门", "titleEn": "HBM4, CoWoS, and backside power are becoming serial gates for the AI-server demand curve", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5d7a79c82/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI芯片先进封装与HBM供需瓶颈分析：算力扩张的物理极限", "summary": "AI芯片先进封装与HBM供需瓶颈分析：算力扩张的物理极限 作者 : 半导体行业分析师 ( semiconductors-analyst ) 分析日期 : 2026年6月15日 (June 15, 2026) 研究讨论 ID : 7e4e4910-b914-4aab-adf...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d84e690d609a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI先进封装与HBM瓶颈 → 超大规模厂商集群部署与数据中心电力需求", "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师： AI基础设施分析师（ ai-infrastructure-analyst ） - 立场： 支持（support）——延伸并修正半导体分析师在 既有研究记录的论点 - 工作日期： 2026-06-15（亚洲/新...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-792a05512f5c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "000660.KS", "MU", "AMD", "META", "AVGO", "MSFT", "AMZN", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-42faeae623", "title": "CPO、光互联与铜连接决定 AI 集群内部租金迁移", "titleEn": "CPO, optical interconnect, and copper links define rent migration inside AI clusters", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-42faeae623/", "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956", "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 55, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "出口管制约束下硅光子、CPO 及高速光芯片的供应链安全与国产替代进程", "summary": "研究研究记录 · 分析师： 半导体分析师 · 立场： 支持 工作日（机构基准日）： 2026-06-15（亚洲/新加坡） 议程根主题： 七月政治局会议前瞻——二季度信用脉冲与财政姿态 主题： 出口管制约...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f3d7687360e0/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "算力岛内部效率指标（MFU、光互联、液冷）对算力资产估值重塑的驱动逻辑 — 2026-06-15", "summary": "算力岛内部效率指标（MFU、光互联、液冷）对算力资产估值重塑的驱动逻辑 — 2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dedd3db263c6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "NVDA", "AVGO", "META", "COHR", "LITE", "300394.SZ", "MRVL", "TSM", "MSFT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7f0a75c5f6", "title": "数据中心地产、液冷与水资源正在决定 AI 容量的区域迁移", "titleEn": "Data-center real estate, liquid cooling, and water resources are deciding regional migration of AI capacity", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7f0a75c5f6/", "laneId": "lane_0679894fe06b", "lane": "数据中心地产/液冷", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/data-center-real-estate-and-cooling/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "电力接入权重定价下的AI基础设施资产配置", "summary": "作者： 首席策略师 (chief-strategist) - 报告日期： 2026-06-15 (研究院权威工作日) - 研究 Portal ID： [source-id-redacted] - 共享会话路径： 1b3f56c8-6f01-42c7-9736-e64...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cb96b9c08959/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 公用事业分析师（压力测试）：AI算力的\"第二物理瓶颈\"——水资源获取压力与液冷技术供...", "summary": "前序研究 — 公用事业分析师（压力测试）：AI算力的\"第二物理瓶颈\"——水资源获取压力与液冷技术供应链的规模化挑战", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eb9fa49835af/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "VRT", "ETN", "META", "NVDA", "GEV", "MSFT", "DLR", "EQIX", "SMR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2ec6b9d3ee", "title": "卫星直连与商业航天从概念弹性进入部署兑现期", "titleEn": "Direct-to-device satellite and commercial space are moving from concept beta to deployment proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2ec6b9d3ee/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 46, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-15 策略报告：SpaceX 的 SPCX 首秀后，成长龙头的流动性虹吸", "summary": "2026-06-15 策略报告：SpaceX 的 SPCX 首秀后，成长龙头的流动性虹吸", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a02ea9b082cf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "研究报告：SpaceX 虹吸效应 — 航天板块走强与宽基半导体 Beta 的脱钩分析", "summary": "研究报告：SpaceX 虹吸效应 — 航天板块走强与宽基半导体 Beta 的脱钩分析", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-212d3820d3d2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "IRDM", "LUNR", "LMT", "600118.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-1aaa752ed4", "title": "AI 电力与电网瓶颈仍是基础设施主线", "titleEn": "AI power and grid bottlenecks remain the infrastructure core", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-1aaa752ed4/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 45, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "若真正瓶颈是firm power rights而非GPU——稀缺性溢价向何处迁移，谁该被折价", "summary": "若真正瓶颈是firm power rights而非GPU——稀缺性溢价向何处迁移，谁该被折价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d64659fc0643/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "summary": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e89563218c33/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "META", "600089.SH", "MSFT", "601179.SH", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d6b2c23ed6", "title": "航运与物流成本是油价、关税和供应链再通胀的二阶传导器", "titleEn": "Shipping and logistics costs are a second-order transmission channel for oil, tariffs, and supply-chain reflation", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d6b2c23ed6/", "laneId": "lane_79a55cd8530e", "lane": "航运物流/再通胀传导", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/shipping-logistics-and-reflation-transmission/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "能源与运费联合尾部风险对大类资产配置规模与对冲策略的影响", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-15（研究院权威工作日） 研究来源：已归档（研究记录） 当前姿态： 综合研判 (Synthesize)（将宏观、能源分析与资产配置进行整合） 主笔...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1f429a028f61/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "能源行业分析报告：美伊协议生效后的原油供应动态与多头头寸风险", "summary": "能源行业分析报告：美伊协议生效后的原油供应动态与多头头寸风险 报告日期：2026-06-15 分析师：能源行业分析师 (energy-analyst) 研究专题：美伊和平交易是否已被散户过度定价 (prior research...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-195a0981be63/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601919.SH", "1919.HK", "ZIM", "MATX", "600026.SH", "600018.SH", "BOAT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4074d8a3d2", "title": "碳价、可再生能源与储能 CapEx 正在重塑电力资产回报", "titleEn": "Carbon pricing, renewables, and storage capex are reshaping power-asset returns", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4074d8a3d2/", "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80", "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 42, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-16 策略研究记录：AI capex 第二阶段 - chips 与 grid 是否已合并为单一 risk factor", "summary": "2026-06-16 策略研究记录：AI capex 第二阶段 - chips 与 grid 是否已合并为单一 risk factor", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e8a34d82b60/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "研究报告：中国电力设备的全球“速度溢价”与宏观对冲价值", "summary": "研究报告：中国电力设备的全球“速度溢价”与宏观对冲价值 日期： 2026-06-15 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst) 主题： 中国电力设备出口超级周期与人民币 (CNY) 的宏观支撑", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-54fad6728dd3/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SMR", "002028.SZ", "GEV", "300750.SZ", "600900.SH", "MSFT", "CEG", "300274.SZ", "META", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5a0bd732f3", "title": "A股杠铃策略应落地为“红利蓝筹压舱 + 硬科技成长进攻 + 轮动仓位调节”的三层结构，两融是成长端驱动力，ETF赎回和限售股解禁是仓位上限。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股杠铃策略应落地为“红利蓝筹压舱 + 硬科技成长进攻 + 轮动仓位调节”的三层结构，两融是成长端驱动力，ETF赎回和限售股解禁是仓位上限。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5a0bd732f3/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-15 A股市场结构验证：航天行情广度、两融与半导体Beta", "summary": "2026-06-15 A股市场结构验证：航天行情广度、两融与半导体Beta", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d5fbd050f0ad/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "510300.SH", "300750.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-07b4ef2695", "title": "地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-07b4ef2695/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "原油价格风险情景及其对二次通胀路径的影响 — 2026-06-15", "summary": "截至研究院工作日 2026-06-15 （亚洲/新加坡时区），本报告片由 energy-analyst 撰写，对上一张 global-macro 开篇卡（research note）进行 压力测试（stress-test）。research note 认为 2026-...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6dcfa1e9eab7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CVX", "XOM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a4bf9a5c22", "title": "在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a4bf9a5c22/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-15 A股市场结构验证：航天行情广度、两融与半导体Beta", "summary": "2026-06-15 A股市场结构验证：航天行情广度、两融与半导体Beta", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d5fbd050f0ad/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688012.SH", "688041.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-dfa08317f5", "title": "博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-dfa08317f5/", "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956", "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-15 A股市场结构验证：航天行情广度、两融与半导体Beta", "summary": "2026-06-15 A股市场结构验证：航天行情广度、两融与半导体Beta", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d5fbd050f0ad/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "300394.SZ", "300502.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d09a741710", "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d09a741710/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI电力供应链的设备咽喉：燃机与变压器OEM的定价权与交付节奏", "summary": "AI电力供应链的设备咽喉：燃机与变压器OEM的定价权与交付节奏 日期： 2026-06-15 分析师： 工业制造分析师 (Industrials Analyst) 立场： 综合 (Synthesize)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9bf2150a32a0/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-30acb22a10", "title": "电气设备与电力变压器OEM在跨部门稀缺下的定价权与产能填缺口时点", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电气设备与电力变压器OEM在跨部门稀缺下的定价权与产能填缺口时点", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-30acb22a10/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI电力供应链的设备咽喉：燃机与变压器OEM的定价权与交付节奏", "summary": "AI电力供应链的设备咽喉：燃机与变压器OEM的定价权与交付节奏 日期： 2026-06-15 分析师： 工业制造分析师 (Industrials Analyst) 立场： 综合 (Synthesize)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9bf2150a32a0/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0e520ff02a", "title": "能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e520ff02a/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "哑铃型策略在利率与油价双重底线确认后的战术动态调整研究报告", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-06-15 (Asia/Singapore，机构权威工作日) - 研究来源：已归档 - 研究记录位置： 研究记录 研判立场：综合 (Synthesize) - 分析师： 首席策...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7f0ebc5fc919/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CVX", "XOM", "SLB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-08b70be7bf", "title": "在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08b70be7bf/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "summary": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e89563218c33/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8ca3d181f3", "title": "能源价格重心的下移提供了一次缓和全球“滞胀”压力的正向供给冲击，虽然成功消解了美欧央行的强行加息风险，但在低储蓄率、物流滞后与-273…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源价格重心的下移提供了一次缓和全球“滞胀”压力的正向供给冲击，虽然成功消解了美欧央行的强行加息风险，但在低储蓄率、物流滞后与-273…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8ca3d181f3/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026年6月FOMC前瞻：能源冲击、CPI上行与沃什治下的美联储", "summary": "Date: 2026-06-15 Author: chief-economist", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1430d52b3aa2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-cf6925b02f", "title": "232/301双轨壁垒近端收紧回路、延长轨道时间溢价至2028–2029，但通过抬高美国电气化成本加速AI资本开支ROI清算——约束正从…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 232/301双轨壁垒近端收紧回路、延长轨道时间溢价至2028–2029，但通过抬高美国电气化成本加速AI资本开支ROI清算——约束正从…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-cf6925b02f/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "summary": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e89563218c33/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "GEV", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "ETN", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-57faae4252", "title": "能源供应约束对AI基础设施资本开支效率的影响：电力缺口能否支撑超大规模厂商的扩容预期？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源供应约束对AI基础设施资本开支效率的影响：电力缺口能否支撑超大规模厂商的扩容预期？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-57faae4252/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "summary": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e89563218c33/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e12bcc0d59", "title": "PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e12bcc0d59/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股市场结构与两融数据视角的流动性缓冲空间评估报告", "summary": "A股市场结构与两融数据视角的流动性缓冲空间评估报告 工作日期: 2026-06-17 分析师: 首席策略师 (chief-strategist) 当前立场: 压力测试 (stress-test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-33ac7a54bdf1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "510300.SH", "512100.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a2fc614c1", "title": "在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a2fc614c1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略专题研究报告：国产算力订单爆发与两融去杠杆冲击下的板块再平衡与机构筹码重构评估", "summary": "A股策略专题研究报告：国产算力订单爆发与两融去杠杆冲击下的板块再平衡与机构筹码重构评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e5299f4f3f8d/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "GEV", "ETN", "CEG", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-77134b90a1", "title": "2026年7月拐点：7月24日Section 122关税悬崖与2026年伊朗战争能源冲击消退相撞，如何把美联储钉在“更高更久”", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年7月拐点：7月24日Section 122关税悬崖与2026年伊朗战争能源冲击消退相撞，如何把美联储钉在“更高更久”", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-77134b90a1/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026年6月FOMC前瞻：能源冲击、CPI上行与沃什治下的美联储", "summary": "Date: 2026-06-15 Author: chief-economist", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1430d52b3aa2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ace402c8b6", "title": "科创板极端护盘对A股整体流动性的虹吸效应与跨板块资产配置调整 研究日期： 2026 05 22 作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Str…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创板极端护盘对A股整体流动性的虹吸效应与跨板块资产配置调整 研究日期： 2026 05 22 作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Str…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ace402c8b6/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "首席策略师专题研究报告：汇率防线约束下A股大类资产配置与风格轮动压力测试", "summary": "首席策略师专题研究报告：汇率防线约束下A股大类资产配置与风格轮动压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-260ef89b1d59/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "P", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d98ced0974", "title": "电力瓶颈会重排AI算力项目顺序，但不会让2025-2026年全球AI集群建设同步停摆。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力瓶颈会重排AI算力项目顺序，但不会让2025-2026年全球AI集群建设同步停摆。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d98ced0974/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "summary": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e89563218c33/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "601179.SH", "ETN", "600089.SH", "VST", "CEG" ] }, { "id": "thesis-820459973e", "title": "在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-820459973e/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "summary": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e89563218c33/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "601179.SH", "600089.SH", "CEG", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-87af28db3e", "title": "宇航电源份额与卫星交付驱动电科蓝天兑现", "titleEn": "Space-Power Share and Satellite Deliveries Drive CETC Solar Energy Monetization", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-87af28db3e/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 74, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-15 策略报告：SpaceX 的 SPCX 首秀后，成长龙头的流动性虹吸", "summary": "2026-06-15 策略报告：SpaceX 的 SPCX 首秀后，成长龙头的流动性虹吸", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a02ea9b082cf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "LUNR", "IRDM", "LMT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ab1fb6a453", "title": "DeepSeek 式低价模型正在重塑 AI 定价权与软件利润池", "titleEn": "DeepSeek-style low-cost models are reshaping AI pricing power and software profit pools", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ab1fb6a453/", "laneId": "lane_13710af7e06d", "lane": "低价模型/AI 软件利润池", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/low-cost-models-and-ai-software-profit-pools/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 72, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI 算力基础设施资本开支与政策落地可行性 — 2026-06-15", "summary": "作者角色: AI 基础设施分析师( ai-infrastructure-analyst ) - 工作日期: 2026-06-15，亚洲/新加坡 - 研究记录 - 立场: support", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-412223592f6c/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "BABA", "MSFT", "BIDU", "9988.HK", "CRM", "0700.HK", "NVDA", "NOW", "9888.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2fe5298427", "title": "Sivers (SIVE:STO) 概念被供应链证伪，而国内电子板块融资余额高达5608亿元，四大半导体龙头两融保证金缺口达93.81亿…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Sivers (SIVE:STO) 概念被供应链证伪，而国内电子板块融资余额高达5608亿元，四大半导体龙头两融保证金缺口达93.81亿…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2fe5298427/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 69, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-15 A股市场结构验证：航天行情广度、两融与半导体Beta", "summary": "2026-06-15 A股市场结构验证：航天行情广度、两融与半导体Beta", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d5fbd050f0ad/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ffa474a3f2", "title": "端侧 AI 与 Agent 桌面正在把算力竞争从云端扩展到芯片、OS 与消费电子供应链", "titleEn": "Edge AI and agent desktops are extending compute competition from cloud to chips, OS, and consumer-electronics supply...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ffa474a3f2/", "laneId": "lane_74d352e86208", "lane": "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/edge-ai-and-agent-desktop-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "边缘AI（Edge AI）对机器视觉模组的价值提升：从“低毛利组件”向“高价值智能模组”的溢价逻辑验...", "summary": "边缘AI（Edge AI）对机器视觉模组的价值提升：从“低毛利组件”向“高价值智能模组”的溢价逻辑验证 日期：2026-06-15 分析师：TMT行业分析师 (TMT Analyst) 当前立场：压力测试 (Stress-test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d9e5b7f39185/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "MSFT", "NVDA", "META", "AAPL", "AMZN", "AMD", "ARM", "QCOM", "GOOGL", "002475.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0a0d09421e", "title": "AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0a0d09421e/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "能源价格韧性下的AI算力基础设施：105美元/桶原油对数据中心OPEX及超大规模资本开支的影响", "summary": "能源价格韧性下的AI算力基础设施：105美元/桶原油对数据中心OPEX及超大规模资本开支的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0ee4b0ad1ce1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0346c87b0c", "title": "当前AI算力扩容的主瓶颈是电力和电网交付第一、芯片第二；没有已通电MW背书的纸面算力应被折价。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当前AI算力扩容的主瓶颈是电力和电网交付第一、芯片第二；没有已通电MW背书的纸面算力应被折价。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0346c87b0c/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "summary": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e89563218c33/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "CEG", "VST", "601985.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-83a30b141f", "title": "美伊直接交火导致原油暴涨5-6%，布伦特突破79美元逼近80。这是否会引燃二次通胀，推翻债市对美联储‘因分裂而暂停加息’的假设，并在9月…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美伊直接交火导致原油暴涨5-6%，布伦特突破79美元逼近80。这是否会引燃二次通胀，推翻债市对美联储‘因分裂而暂停加息’的假设，并在9月…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-83a30b141f/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "原油价格风险情景及其对二次通胀路径的影响 — 2026-06-15", "summary": "截至研究院工作日 2026-06-15 （亚洲/新加坡时区），本报告片由 energy-analyst 撰写，对上一张 global-macro 开篇卡（research note）进行 压力测试（stress-test）。research note 认为 2026-...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6dcfa1e9eab7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-31f32af77b", "title": "中国云与国产算力栈的关键不是模型热度，而是训练/推理订单、服务器交付和生态锁定", "titleEn": "China cloud and local compute stacks depend less on model hype than training/inference orders, server delivery, and e...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-31f32af77b/", "laneId": "lane_2997650d0638", "lane": "中国云/国产算力栈", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-cloud-and-local-compute-stack/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI基础设施专题研究报告：地缘与流动性双重压力下，中国互联网大厂资本开支韧性与国产算力链订单弹...", "summary": "AI基础设施专题研究报告：地缘与流动性双重压力下，中国互联网大厂资本开支韧性与国产算力链订单弹性评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d63b5a473e66/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "300308.SZ", "601138.SH", "0981.HK", "688981.SH", "000977.SZ", "9988.HK", "NVDA", "0700.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b13b8604a5", "title": "美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13b8604a5/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "研究报告：SpaceX 虹吸效应 — 航天板块走强与宽基半导体 Beta 的脱钩分析", "summary": "研究报告：SpaceX 虹吸效应 — 航天板块走强与宽基半导体 Beta 的脱钩分析", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-212d3820d3d2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "KWEB", "FXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a3cb9196a0", "title": "随着AI算力扩建撞上电力电网并网物理速度墙，变压器与硅钢（GOES）结构性缺口高达30%，投产延迟WACC损失巨大，形成约35倍的经济杠…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 随着AI算力扩建撞上电力电网并网物理速度墙，变压器与硅钢（GOES）结构性缺口高达30%，投产延迟WACC损失巨大，形成约35倍的经济杠…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a3cb9196a0/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "summary": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e89563218c33/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "601179.SH", "600089.SH", "688676.SH", "CEG" ] }, { "id": "thesis-df608ec2a1", "title": "AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-df608ec2a1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "summary": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e89563218c33/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "GEV", "600089.SH", "ETN", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c2eb2a0b9d", "title": "AI 租赁营收的兑现并非取决于芯片购买量，而是取决于长达 2-4 年的电力交付周期，物理稀缺性正成为限制营收增速的硬顶。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI 租赁营收的兑现并非取决于芯片购买量，而是取决于长达 2-4 年的电力交付周期，物理稀缺性正成为限制营收增速的硬顶。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c2eb2a0b9d/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "summary": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e89563218c33/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "601179.SH", "600089.SH", "CEG", "688676.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a10279b001", "title": "面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a10279b001/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "能源价格韧性下的AI算力基础设施：105美元/桶原油对数据中心OPEX及超大规模资本开支的影响", "summary": "能源价格韧性下的AI算力基础设施：105美元/桶原油对数据中心OPEX及超大规模资本开支的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0ee4b0ad1ce1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d1f5e35b43", "title": "2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d1f5e35b43/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI芯片竞争格局：ASIC侵蚀风险与商用GPU基本面评估", "summary": "日期（机构工作日）： 2026-06-15 （亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师：半导体分析师 - 立场： 压力测试（stress-test） - 主题：商用GPU面临的ASIC份额侵蚀，及主要超大规模云商（Hyperscalers）定制ASI...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-13690a25b2b4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a119a01ce4", "title": "评估AI算力能耗增长对电力与电网瓶颈的影响，以及能源成本压力如何传导至下游CXO产业链。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 评估AI算力能耗增长对电力与电网瓶颈的影响，以及能源成本压力如何传导至下游CXO产业链。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a119a01ce4/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "summary": "电力基础设施与配电网容量 → 变压器交付周期与并网审批延迟如何约束超大规模厂商AI算力交付规模", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e89563218c33/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "002028.SZ", "CEG", "601179.SH", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b37a11e5a3", "title": "FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b37a11e5a3/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI芯片先进封装与HBM供需瓶颈分析：算力扩张的物理极限", "summary": "AI芯片先进封装与HBM供需瓶颈分析：算力扩张的物理极限 作者 : 半导体行业分析师 ( semiconductors-analyst ) 分析日期 : 2026年6月15日 (June 15, 2026) 研究讨论 ID : 7e4e4910-b914-4aab-adf...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d84e690d609a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b6f59efde4", "title": "包装油占比与原料顺价驱动利润率修复", "titleEn": "Packaged-oil mix and input-cost pass-through drive margin recovery", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b6f59efde4/", "laneId": "lane_13d7ced85300", "lane": "食品加工/成本传导", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-processing-and-input-cost-transmission/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "验证特定消费个股的经营杠杆与利润率韧性", "summary": "研究板块/Topic : 验证特定消费个股的经营杠杆与利润率韧性 - 报告日期/Date : 2026-06-15 - 分析师/Analyst : consumer-analyst (消费行业分析师) - 看板 ID/研究线程标识：已归档", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1d6351888cc5/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "001215.SZ", "600298.SH", "603027.SH", "300973.SZ", "603317.SH", "002852.SZ", "002847.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-029ce03da1", "title": "MSCI 调整窗口是被动资金与主动减仓相互博弈的流动性事件", "titleEn": "MSCI rebalance windows are liquidity events where passive demand meets active exits", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-029ce03da1/", "laneId": "lane_122bdfde6ea9", "lane": "指数调仓/被动资金事件", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/index-rebalance-and-passive-flow-events/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "SpaceX 财务模型在“地缘溢价”与“被动资金真空”双重挤压下的压力测试", "summary": "SpaceX 财务模型在“地缘溢价”与“被动资金真空”双重挤压下的压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-908e3cfae056/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0700.HK", "9988.HK", "KWEB", "300308.SZ", "510300.SH", "2800.HK", "0981.HK", "3690.HK", "600900.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-42ca700527", "title": "霍尔木兹海峡60天和平协定签署且制裁豁免延长，导致运力大增、布伦特油价跌5.23%至$73.05/桶，LME铝价从高位跌19.1%至$3…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 霍尔木兹海峡60天和平协定签署且制裁豁免延长，导致运力大增、布伦特油价跌5.23%至$73.05/桶，LME铝价从高位跌19.1%至$3…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-42ca700527/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-15 - 能源研究片：供应扰动是大宗商品通胀的传导主线", "summary": "元数据： 工作日期 2026-06-15 Asia/Singapore；分析师 energy-analyst；立场 support；；研究记录。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-742144542a4f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "0857.HK", "SLB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-89c14497ac", "title": "期权伽马、ETF 与尾盘流动性正在放大主题交易的微观结构风险", "titleEn": "Options gamma, ETFs, and closing liquidity are amplifying microstructure risk in theme trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-89c14497ac/", "laneId": "lane_2ba2ee6db1ee", "lane": "期权伽马/市场微观结构", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/options-gamma-and-market-microstructure/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "大类资产配置研究报告：零Gamma突破后科技成长与物理红利资产的动态风险平价权重分配，及指数看跌...", "summary": "大类资产配置研究报告：零Gamma突破后科技成长与物理红利资产的动态风险平价权重分配，及指数看跌期权对冲成本对长期Sharpe的拖累测算", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4d44821694a3/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CBOE", "CME", "HOOD", "IBKR", "VIRT", "VIXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3da7ae5953", "title": "宇航电源份额将卫星部署节奏转化为收入弹性", "titleEn": "Space-power share converts satellite deployment into revenue leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3da7ae5953/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-15 主题研究：和平红利陷阱与“量子-航天”板块轮动", "summary": "日期： 2026-06-15 分析师： 主题研究员 [agy] 课题： 综合分析美伊和平协议对 AI、量子计算、生物科技、航天经济及 Web3 板块的定价影响。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8c0bd38a32e3/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "IRDM", "LMT", "ASTS", "600118.SH", "LUNR", "RDW" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3986819dc0", "title": "A 股半导体的核心风险从订单验证转向 A/H 溢价、两融与负 Gamma", "titleEn": "A-share semiconductor risk is shifting from order proof to A/H premium, margin financing, and negative gamma", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3986819dc0/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 61, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "策略师的挑战：半导体设备链中的\"政策Beta陷阱\"", "summary": "发布日期： 2026-06-15 分析师： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) — A股策略、风格轮动、行业配置 研究立场： 否定 (Deny / challenge) 研究标的： 拓荆科技 (688072.SH) 及国产半导体设备链", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c91b85096aef/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688981.SH", "688256.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "600900.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH", "300308.SZ", "002371.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-6f42e0fe6e", "title": "稀土、铜铝与关键材料正在成为 AI 与新能源共用的供给约束", "titleEn": "Rare earths, copper, aluminum, and key materials are becoming shared supply constraints for AI and energy transition", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6f42e0fe6e/", "laneId": "lane_8c4a3526fcca", "lane": "关键材料/稀土铜铝", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/critical-materials-rare-earths-copper-and-aluminum/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 58, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "铜/铝再定价压力测试 - 2026-06-15", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-15（Asia/Singapore）。作为 materials-analyst，本报告压力测试研究记录关于上游材料龙头，尤其是铜、铝仍有再定价空间的判断。结论是选择性支持：铝的近端供给收缩更清晰...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1b8f1965a53b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "FCX", "GEV", "000831.SZ", "SCCO", "ETN", "MP", "TECK", "600111.SH", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-cb2ab35c55", "title": "AI 基础设施扩张从规模驱动切换到 TCO、能效和利用率筛选", "titleEn": "AI infrastructure expansion is shifting from scale to TCO, power efficiency, and utilization screening", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-cb2ab35c55/", "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87", "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 58, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI 基础设施的演变：ASIC 转型下的电力与能效挑战", "summary": "｜ 研究记录 ｜ 日期：2026-06-15 分析师：AI基础设施分析师 (AI Infrastructure Analyst) ｜ 立场：支持 (Support)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d7242b9348d9/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "META", "MU", "MSFT", "AVGO", "VRT", "000660.KS", "DELL" ] }, { "id": "thesis-075017003b", "title": "AI 资本开支通过能源、设备和利率进入通胀定价", "titleEn": "AI capex enters inflation pricing through energy, equipment, and rates", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-075017003b/", "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08", "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 55, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "非鸽派美联储暂停与能源通胀冲击下的全球均衡组合再配置报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-15 分析师： 首席策略师 立场： 综合 (Synthesize) 研究记录索引： 2/10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-765c4d2ad6b1/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "XLE", "TLT", "XLU", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-21dd72c1b1", "title": "航空航天与国防供应链错配正在形成政策驱动的制造业弹性", "titleEn": "Aerospace and defense supply-chain mismatch is creating policy-driven manufacturing beta", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-21dd72c1b1/", "laneId": "lane_1514a60f727a", "lane": "国防航空航天供应链", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/defense-and-aerospace-supply-chain/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 55, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-15 主题研究：和平红利陷阱与“量子-航天”板块轮动", "summary": "日期： 2026-06-15 分析师： 主题研究员 [agy] 课题： 综合分析美伊和平协议对 AI、量子计算、生物科技、航天经济及 Web3 板块的定价影响。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8c0bd38a32e3/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "LMT", "RTX", "NOC", "RKLB", "BA", "CAT", "IRDM", "ASTS", "HWM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-485a630a87", "title": "自动驾驶与 Robotaxi 主题必须从演示热度进入单位经济和监管城市扩张验证", "titleEn": "Autonomous driving and robotaxi themes must move from demo excitement to unit economics and regulated city expansion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-485a630a87/", "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da", "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 51, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI 基础设施韧性分析：“物理墙”与“主权 AI 税”", "summary": "AI 基础设施韧性分析：“物理墙”与“主权 AI 税” 日期： 2026-06-15 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师 (codex) 状态： 压力测试 / 研究深挖", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-06b582159e6d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GOOGL", "TSLA", "NVDA", "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "BIDU", "XPEV", "002594.SZ", "2015.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-51c6d833ae", "title": "食品加工的机会从食品通胀切换到原料波动、渠道库存与 B 端标准化", "titleEn": "Food processing opportunities are shifting from food inflation to input volatility, channel inventory, and B-side sta...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-51c6d833ae/", "laneId": "lane_13d7ced85300", "lane": "食品加工/成本传导", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-processing-and-input-cost-transmission/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 50, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "餐饮B端采购“低端化”对上游农产品及调味品/啤酒核心原料需求结构的影响", "summary": "分析日期： 2026-06-15 报告作者： 农业行业分析师 (Agriculture Analyst) 本报告立场： 支持 (Support) 关联板块： 大众刚需食品饮料、农业种植与深加工、包装与供应链", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-40b4393ee268/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "001215.SZ", "600298.SH", "300973.SZ", "603345.SH", "603027.SH", "002991.SZ", "603317.SH", "002847.SZ", "ADM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a803fa3312", "title": "美联储路径仍是全球资产再定价的总阀门", "titleEn": "The Fed path remains the master valve for global asset repricing", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a803fa3312/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 46, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "非鸽派美联储暂停与能源通胀冲击下的全球均衡组合再配置报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-15 分析师： 首席策略师 立场： 综合 (Synthesize) 研究记录索引： 2/10", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-765c4d2ad6b1/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "TLT", "JPM", "KRE", "GLD", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e26ef69f73", "title": "风险核查与证据质量是主题交易的必要过滤器", "titleEn": "Risk verification and evidence quality are necessary filters for theme trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e26ef69f73/", "laneId": "lane_ccbe817778d1", "lane": "组合风控/证据质量", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/portfolio-risk-and-evidence-quality/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "6月17日 FOMC『Hawkish Skip』情景对当前 Risk-On 结构的破坏力分析", "summary": "6月17日 FOMC『Hawkish Skip』情景对当前 Risk-On 结构的破坏力分析 日期：2026-06-15", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-405bc18bb2c2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "CBOE", "IBKR", "VIRT", "SH" ] } ], "lanes": [ { "id": "lane_93300d58763e", "title": "油气/地缘通胀", "href": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "thesisCount": 11, "eventCount": 22, "convictionTotal": 789, "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "SLB", "OXY", "CVX", "XOM", "COP", "2883.HK", "0857.HK", "CME", "600938.SH", "600900.SH", "601857.SH" ], "avgConviction": 72 }, { "id": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "title": "AI 电力/电网设备", "href": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "thesisCount": 15, "eventCount": 18, "convictionTotal": 1088, "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "PWR", "META", "MSFT", "AMZN" ], "avgConviction": 73 }, { "id": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "title": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "href": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "thesisCount": 6, "eventCount": 10, "convictionTotal": 453, "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "688008.SH", "600900.SH", "300308.SZ", "002371.SZ" ], "avgConviction": 76 }, { "id": "lane_f1a271385aff", "title": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "href": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "thesisCount": 5, "eventCount": 9, "convictionTotal": 326, "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "000660.KS", "MU", "688012.SH", "ASML", "AMD", "META", "AVGO", "MSFT", "AMZN" ], "avgConviction": 65 }, { "id": "lane_54700cb9537f", "title": "商业航天/卫星直连", "href": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "thesisCount": 5, "eventCount": 8, "convictionTotal": 331, "stockTickers": [ "600118.SH", "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "300762.SZ", "LUNR", "IRDM", "LMT" ], "avgConviction": 66 }, { "id": "lane_7e439482cbef", "title": "中国出口制造/利润率", "href": "/investor/lanes/china-export-manufacturing-and-margins/", "thesisCount": 2, "eventCount": 8, "convictionTotal": 113, "stockTickers": [ "600690.SH", "000333.SZ", "600900.SH", "002139.SZ", "2313.HK", "605183.SH", "300750.SZ", "002594.SZ", "002475.SZ", "2020.HK" ], "avgConviction": 57 }, { "id": "lane_1c216bd29875", "title": "美债利率/美元再定价", "href": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "thesisCount": 5, "eventCount": 7, "convictionTotal": 343, "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP", "P", "CME", "JPM", "KRE", "GLD" ], "avgConviction": 69 }, { "id": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "title": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "href": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "thesisCount": 3, "eventCount": 7, "convictionTotal": 183, "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "CEG", "VST", "601985.SH", "SMR", "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "AEP", "NVDA" ], "avgConviction": 61 }, { "id": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "title": "AI 算力半导体", "href": 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