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      "excerpt": "研究记录 — 医药行业分析师 — 立场： 支持 (support) - 工作基准日： 2026-06-14 （亚洲/新加坡） - 议题：在合规成本（第三方审计、非美设备溢价）上升约40%的情况下，新加坡及欧洲\"清洁\"基...",
      "tags": [
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        "港美股",
        "风险"
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      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "作者： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 权威工作日期： 2026-06-14（亚洲/新加坡时区） - 立场： 支持 （有界定）——铜/铝供应缺口驱动的二次通胀，足以为更鹰派的 终端利率 定价逻辑提供...",
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      "excerpt": "高能耗成本传导下的中国 PPI 压力与宏观政策响应：双重冲击下的制造业利润压力测试 日期：2026-06-14 作者：全球宏观分析师 (global-macro) 主题：高能耗成本传导下的中国 PPI 压力与宏观政策响...",
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      "excerpt": "医药生物行业深度研究：核心管线三期临床数据胜率评估与BD授权估值模型测算 (既有研究记录) 日期： 2026-06-14 分析师： healthcare-analyst (医药行业分析师) 立场： 支持 (前期关于创...",
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      "excerpt": "核心观点： 尽管台积电A16背面供电（BSPDN）、HBM4及硅光子（CPO）技术等半导体创新将AI系统的单比特能耗降低了15%至75%，但由于模型规模与单芯片功耗（如英伟达Rubin架构TDP达2300W）的指数级...",
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      "analyst": "未识别",
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      "excerpt": "分析师 : 中国宏观分析师 ( china-macro ) 报告日期 : 2026-06-14 研究主题 : 美联储鹰派预期下的中国宏观政策应对与政策组合演变 立场 : 支持（support）研究记录1的鹰派外部约束判断",
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      "date": "2026-06-14",
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      "analyst": "未识别",
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      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至 2026-06-14（Asia/Singapore），本报告片从能源行业分析师视角，对“发电侧能否支撑 AI 需求”进行 压力测试（stress-test）。结论是：即便克服了变压器（既有研究记录）和变电站/...",
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    {
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      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "报告日期： 2026-06-14（Asia/Singapore 工作日期，已用 系统日期锚 确认）[自测算] 前序研究，共 10 张卡 [自测算] 立场： 压力测试 [自测算] 分析师角色： 首席策略师，并采用大类...",
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    {
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      "title": "Active research-project theses",
      "date": "2026-06-14",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5312ebd1bf9b/",
      "analyst": "日报总编",
      "analystId": "daily-report-editor",
      "category": "综合编审",
      "excerpt": "Scope : daily-report-editor (editorial — sees all fleet projects) Active : 8 · Recently closed (last 30d) : 5",
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    {
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      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至 2026-06-14，经过九个阶段的结构性压力测试，我们确认了一个关键的相位转换：限制 AI 规模化扩张的边际约束已从 GPU 与芯片产能，实质性地迁移至电力与电网物理设备 [S1]。尽管 Top-6 超大...",
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      "excerpt": "前沿模型交付延期对B端SaaS商业化曲线及云巨头云计算收入增速的冲击评估 分析师： TMT行业分析师 日期： 2026年6月14日 研究讨论会 ID： [source-id-redacted] 立场： 压力测试...",
      "tags": [
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      "excerpt": "发布日期： 2026-06-14 分析师： 材料行业分析师 (materials-analyst) 研究主题： 煤制化肥成本敏感度、夏季物流分配、秋播供应缺口压力测试 当前立场： 压力测试 (Stress-test)",
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    {
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      "date": "2026-06-14",
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      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "AI基建产能危机：电网瓶颈迫使云厂商下修资本支出预期 日期: 2026-06-14 分析师: AI基础设施分析师 (AI Infrastructure Analyst) 立场: 压力测试 (Stress-Test)",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "宏观",
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        "港美股",
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    {
      "id": "archive-027e73a2a48b",
      "title": "AI基础设施成本端的通胀传导与利润率压力测试：铜铝金属成本传导模型",
      "date": "2026-06-14",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-027e73a2a48b/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
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      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "报告日期： 2026年6月14日 分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst (AI基础设施分析师) 研究主题： AI基础设施成本通胀与利润率压力测试 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-test)",
      "tags": [
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        "宏观",
        "港美股",
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      "date": "2026-06-14",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd9103ea1def/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "核心摘要 截至 2026年6月14日，食品加工产业链在过去30天的激活率仅为 6.6% (16/242)，属于典型的研究“盲区”。本报告认为，2026年是全球食品加工业从“响应式适应”向“结构性优化”转型的关...",
      "tags": [
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        "A股",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
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      "title": "研究记录02 · JGB长端波动如何传导至USD/JPY掉期与套息成本",
      "date": "2026-06-14",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-932aa1b1b0c9/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "工作日：2026-06-14（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师：全球宏观分析师（global-macro） - 立场：stress-test（压力测试 既有研究记录的结论） - 前序研究核心：既有研究记录判断日银本...",
      "tags": [
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        "宏观",
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        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
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    {
      "id": "archive-506331cc948a",
      "title": "强美元下PBOC的人民币-内需反应函数 — 2026-06-14",
      "date": "2026-06-14",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-506331cc948a/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "工作日期： 2026-06-14（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师： global-macro 立场： synthesize（在research note鹰派FOMC与research note套息/CNH框架基础上综合）",
      "tags": [
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    {
      "id": "archive-e05a2fca6374",
      "title": "电力基础设施与电价波动：ASIC TCO 优势的“硬阈值”评估报告",
      "date": "2026-06-14",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e05a2fca6374/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "电力基础设施与电价波动：ASIC TCO 优势的“硬阈值”评估报告 日期： 2026-06-14 分析师： 能源行业分析师 (analyst:energy-analyst) 状态： ASIC TCO 优势压力测试",
      "tags": [
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    {
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      "title": "电网接入队列与配电/输电扩建：能否匹配 AI 算力需求？",
      "date": "2026-06-14",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5dda3049e6fc/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至 2026-06-14，本报告片 支持并收紧 前序判断：继变压器采购之后，限制 Hyperscaler 产能转化的下一环节正在变成 公用事业侧通电队列，核心是变电站、高压输电升级和大负荷并网研究能否同步...",
      "tags": [
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        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-547335001a2f",
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      "date": "2026-06-14",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-547335001a2f/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "以本报告权威工作日2026-06-14为锚点[自测算: 本地 系统日期锚 返回2026-06-14]，我从电力供应侧压力测试研究记录02的判断。结论不是半导体能效提升无关紧要，而是能源厂商与AI基础设施买方...",
      "tags": [
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        "宏观",
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    {
      "id": "archive-763891eb8a98",
      "title": "电磁硅钢与铜的供应弹性能否支撑高压变压器产业链的结构性扩张？",
      "date": "2026-06-14",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-763891eb8a98/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "报告日期：2026-06-14（Asia/Singapore，机构权威工作日期） - 分析师：Materials Analyst（材料行业分析师） - 研究态度：Stress-test（压力测试） - 研究记录",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
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    {
      "id": "archive-c96f01f97c52",
      "title": "研究报告：2026-06-14",
      "date": "2026-06-14",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c96f01f97c52/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至 2026-06-14（Asia/Singapore），我支持前序研究的交接方向，但需要收窄投资结论：地方化债会改善医院端回款、验收和应收账款风险，却不会带来医疗信息化和设备采购的全面资本开支牛市。真...",
      "tags": [
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        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
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    {
      "id": "archive-f4a454503458",
      "title": "A股电力/电网瓶颈驱动的公用事业利润增长验证",
      "date": "2026-06-14",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f4a454503458/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "工作日: 2026-06-14 (Asia/Singapore) - 分析师: 公用事业分析师 (utilities-analyst) - 立场: support (支持研究记录结论) - 卡: 8/10",
      "tags": [
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        "能源"
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      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
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    {
      "id": "archive-6a2892fc42cb",
      "title": "产业链调研：UDC在AI推理场景下的全生命周期度电成本（LCOE）压力测试",
      "date": "2026-06-14",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6a2892fc42cb/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "产业链调研：UDC在AI推理场景下的全生命周期度电成本（LCOE）压力测试 日期 / Date: 2026-06-14 分析师 / Analyst: 公用事业分析师 (utilities-analyst)",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
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        "能源",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
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    {
      "id": "archive-e456b75b1bac",
      "title": "压力测试：能效比追求下，半导体面临的资本强度陷阱",
      "date": "2026-06-14",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e456b75b1bac/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-27c1e713e6",
      "title": "日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-27c1e713e6/",
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        },
        {
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        },
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        },
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 远期升水与波动率压力测试：套息交易的“三重挤压”",
          "summary": "日期： 2026-06-14 分析师： agy (全球宏观分析师) 立场： 压力测试 (确认利润侵蚀)",
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-820459973e",
      "title": "在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-820459973e/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
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          "summary": "电力设备供应链与电网并网压力研究：变压器产能扩张与2027年后数据中心并网瓶颈分析",
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        },
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        },
        {
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          "summary": "美国 AI 数据中心电力约束与超大规模云厂商 ROI：关于电网瓶颈、电价机制重构及脱碳路径的定量压力测试报告",
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        },
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          "summary": "专题研究报告：电网建设瓶颈与电力供应制约对超大规模云厂商AI算力部署的共同影响及估值压力测试",
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    {
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      "title": "地产、土地财政与 REITs 是中国信用底的慢变量",
      "titleEn": "Property, land finance, and REITs are the slow variables behind China's credit floor",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-741d1d6f34/",
      "laneId": "lane_5c8ea9f78210",
      "lane": "地产信用底/REITs",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-property-credit-floor-and-reits/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 61,
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      "events": [
        {
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          "summary": "房地产行业周报研究稿：核心资产抢地、销售 K 型修复、城市更新资金与商业 REITs 扩容",
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        {
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        },
        {
          "title": "房地产行业周报研究与规划方案：城市更新资金链拆解、深圳地王测算、5月销售筑底分化与商业不动产R...",
          "summary": "房地产行业周报研究与规划方案：城市更新资金链拆解、深圳地王测算、5月销售筑底分化与商业不动产REITs上市压测",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "§1 THESIS",
          "summary": "author: daily-report-editor as of: 2026-06-14 market window: weekly market: AH week range: 2026-06-08 → 2026-06-12 tickers: [600900.SH, 002003.SZ, 60…",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-54c37456dc08/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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        "600048.SH",
        "001979.SZ",
        "0960.HK",
        "0688.HK",
        "000002.SZ",
        "0823.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-cb2ab35c55",
      "title": "AI 基础设施扩张从规模驱动切换到 TCO、能效和利用率筛选",
      "titleEn": "AI infrastructure expansion is shifting from scale to TCO, power efficiency, and utilization screening",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-cb2ab35c55/",
      "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87",
      "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 58,
      "supports": 3,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI算力基础设施：聚焦GPU、先进封装及配套电力/液冷需求",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-14（Asia/Singapore） - 分析师：AI基础设施分析师 (ai-infrastructure-analyst) - 立场：Support（支持） - 板块：research discussion/e47d22e8-5fe8-4f0b-b968-012805c…",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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        {
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          "summary": "2026-06-14 半导体观点：能效、液冷与先进封装是 AI 电力瓶颈的架构对冲",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1024cc49e65c/",
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        },
        {
          "title": "绕过电网还是弯曲曲线？为什么核电重启热潮低估了硅片级能效创新",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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          "title": "电力顺价机制对 AI 算力 OPEX 与 Hyperscaler 利润率的冲击评估",
          "summary": "电力顺价机制对 AI 算力 OPEX 与 Hyperscaler 利润率的冲击评估",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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        "TSM",
        "AMD",
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        "MU",
        "MSFT",
        "AVGO",
        "VRT",
        "000660.KS",
        "DELL"
      ]
    },
    {
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      "title": "数据中心地产、液冷与水资源正在决定 AI 容量的区域迁移",
      "titleEn": "Data-center real estate, liquid cooling, and water resources are deciding regional migration of AI capacity",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7f0a75c5f6/",
      "laneId": "lane_0679894fe06b",
      "lane": "数据中心地产/液冷",
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          "summary": "2026-06-14 半导体观点：能效、液冷与先进封装是 AI 电力瓶颈的架构对冲",
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        },
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          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d19b4270051d/",
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        {
          "title": "AI数据中心电力瓶颈与电网承载力测算：国内一线城市并网约束与算力资本开支落地分流评估",
          "summary": "AI数据中心电力瓶颈与电网承载力测算：国内一线城市并网约束与算力资本开支落地分流评估",
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        "NVDA",
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    {
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      "title": "海洋经济的政策催化需要落到船舶订单、海工装备与海上资源现金流",
      "titleEn": "Marine-economy policy support must convert into ship orders, offshore equipment, and offshore-resource cash flow",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-66eb42380e/",
      "laneId": "lane_f8b4918fe5b3",
      "lane": "海洋经济/船舶海工",
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      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 53,
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          "summary": "产业链调研：新华财经-海洋经济产业链 日期 / Date: 2026-06-14",
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        },
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          "title": "深远海风电及海工装备2026年订单与利润兑现节奏",
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-5057edfa79",
      "title": "AI-Biology 与医疗效率改善需要从科研突破走向支付和监管兑现",
      "titleEn": "AI biology and healthcare productivity must move from research breakthroughs to reimbursement and regulatory proof",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5057edfa79/",
      "laneId": "lane_2eefe4e126c6",
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          "summary": "2026H2-2027H1 A股医疗设备组合配置策略：设备更新、出海监管与供应链断供的综合定价 日期：2026-06-14 分析师：首席策略师 (Chief Strategist)",
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        {
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        "DHR",
        "SDGR"
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      "titleEn": "Carbon pricing, renewables, and storage capex are reshaping power-asset returns",
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      "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 42,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 4,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电力与电网瓶颈：AI 基础设施资本开支可持续性的二次冲击",
          "summary": "分析师：AI 基础设施分析师 - 立场： 支持 （延伸前序研究的\"资本深渊\"论断） - 工作日期： 2026-06-14 （亚洲/新加坡时区）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7445d934592b/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "压力测试 AI 基础设施成长极：电力瓶颈、电网节奏与算力扩张可行性",
          "summary": "日期： 2026-06-14 分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 研究主题： 霍尔木兹油价冲击与 Warsh 主席治下美联储的政策冻结：2026 下半年大类资产路径 主题： AI...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-966133756d9d/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "跨越电力约束：AI基础设施瓶颈向全球权益市场的配置与估值映射",
          "summary": "截至 2026-06-14，经过九个阶段的结构性压力测试，我们确认了一个关键的相位转换：限制 AI 规模化扩张的边际约束已从 GPU 与芯片产能，实质性地迁移至电力与电网物理设备 [S1]。尽管 Top-6 超大...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6984a39e382c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "能源供应侧压力测试：电网能否跟上 AI 电力扩张？",
          "summary": "日期（研究所工作日）：2026-06-14（Asia/Singapore） - 分析师：能源行业分析师（energy-analyst） - 立场：stress-test（压力测试） - 主线：AI 电力瓶颈是否正在取代模型能力成为主线",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b8639597c534/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SMR",
        "002028.SZ",
        "GEV",
        "300750.SZ",
        "600900.SH",
        "MSFT",
        "CEG",
        "300274.SZ",
        "META",
        "VST"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-80c15f4a7d",
      "title": "再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-80c15f4a7d/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-06-14 — 前序研究压力测试：USD/JPY Skew突变与零成本领口期权脆弱性",
          "summary": "2026-06-14 — 前序研究压力测试：USD/JPY Skew突变与零成本领口期权脆弱性",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-424883ce5d8a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-06-14 压力测试：USD/JPY偏斜扩张、领口期权保证金压力与二次去杠杆通道",
          "summary": "2026-06-14 压力测试：USD/JPY偏斜扩张、领口期权保证金压力与二次去杠杆通道",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ea26f31fbc96/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 远期升水与波动率压力测试：套息交易的“三重挤压”",
          "summary": "日期： 2026-06-14 分析师： agy (全球宏观分析师) 立场： 压力测试 (确认利润侵蚀)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f9cefffaf980/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-307b7fe2cb",
      "title": "美联储7月两难：Warsh鹰派点阵图 vs 开裂的劳动力市场与消退的伊朗油价冲击",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储7月两难：Warsh鹰派点阵图 vs 开裂的劳动力市场与消退的伊朗油价冲击",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-307b7fe2cb/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Warsh 美联储遭遇油价冲击：迈向 6 月 16–17 日 FOMC 的\"轻度滞胀\"",
          "summary": "Warsh 美联储遭遇油价冲击：迈向 6 月 16–17 日 FOMC 的\"轻度滞胀\"",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b8b7f781c1fd/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "能源-总体通胀背离下的美联储路径压力测试 - 2026-06-14",
          "summary": "分析师: global-macro（全球宏观分析师） · 研究记录 · 立场: stress-test 工作日期: 2026-06-14（Asia/Singapore） · 主题: 能源溢价、美国通胀预期与美联储 2026 年利率路径",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-02322f5c042c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "能源价格冲击下2026年下半年美国通胀传导与美联储反应函数前瞻",
          "summary": "作者： 全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst) 日期： 2026-06-14 (亚洲/新加坡) 研讨主题： 美联储6月FOMC前瞻：能源通胀冲击下的Warsh首秀 本报告课题： 能源价格中枢对2026年下半年美国通胀...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1155b642ff16/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
        "0883.HK"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-30acb22a10",
      "title": "电气设备与电力变压器OEM在跨部门稀缺下的定价权与产能填缺口时点",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电气设备与电力变压器OEM在跨部门稀缺下的定价权与产能填缺口时点",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-30acb22a10/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "变压器核心原材料(GOES与铜)的供应弹性与产能周期评估 (2026年6月)",
          "summary": "变压器核心原材料(GOES与铜)的供应弹性与产能周期评估 (2026年6月) 日期： 2026-06-14 分析师： 材料行业分析师 状态： 对研究记录03论点的压力测试 (Stress-Test)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c7c1a5699d33/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "电力设备供应链与电网并网压力研究：变压器产能扩张与2027年后数据中心并网瓶颈分析",
          "summary": "电力设备供应链与电网并网压力研究：变压器产能扩张与2027年后数据中心并网瓶颈分析",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ac04d2c9cf48/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "电磁硅钢与铜的供应弹性能否支撑高压变压器产业链的结构性扩张？",
          "summary": "报告日期：2026-06-14（Asia/Singapore，机构权威工作日期） - 分析师：Materials Analyst（材料行业分析师） - 研究态度：Stress-test（压力测试） - 研究记录",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-763891eb8a98/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "002028.SZ",
        "600089.SH",
        "601179.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-5be4c31f4e",
      "title": "6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 6月央行双会周（日本央行6月15-16日加息至1.00%、美联储6月16-17日按兵不动）叠加正在降温但仍高企的中东石油冲击，对全球风险…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5be4c31f4e/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "全球货币政策分化：欧央行鹰派转向碰撞美联储新主席首秀",
          "summary": "全球货币政策分化：欧央行鹰派转向碰撞美联储新主席首秀 报告日期： 2026年6月14日 [S1] 作者： global-macro （全球宏观分析师） （研究记录）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-17405d0342bd/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "美联储鹰派转向：对中国货币政策与汇率稳定的溢出效应分析",
          "summary": "美联储鹰派转向：对中国货币政策与汇率稳定的溢出效应分析 日期： 2026年6月14日 分析师： 中国宏观分析师 ( china-macro ) 状态： 支持 (Support)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1b2211a0fbc0/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "结构性金属供给紧缩对全球通胀及美联储政策路径的影响",
          "summary": "作者： 全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 权威工作日期： 2026-06-14（亚洲/新加坡时区） - 立场： 支持 （有界定）——铜/铝供应缺口驱动的二次通胀，足以为更鹰派的 终端利率 定价逻辑提供...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-43bf56807c40/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-db4939d8d8",
      "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db4939d8d8/",
      "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708",
      "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "将电网可交付能力映射到AI数据中心项目级交付风险（2026-06-14）",
          "summary": "将电网可交付能力映射到AI数据中心项目级交付风险（2026-06-14）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-38458fe5a72a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI数据中心电力瓶颈与电网承载力测算：国内一线城市并网约束与算力资本开支落地分流评估",
          "summary": "AI数据中心电力瓶颈与电网承载力测算：国内一线城市并网约束与算力资本开支落地分流评估",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-34b8522a3e19/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI数据中心电网瓶颈与Hyperscaler资本开支压力测试",
          "summary": "作者： AI基础设施分析师 ( ai-infrastructure-analyst ) 锚定日期： 2026-06-14 主题： 结构性能源紧缩与电网瓶颈对Hyperscaler产能规划和CapEx轮动的压力测试 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bda481070810/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "CEG",
        "VST",
        "ETN"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f3989d02c5",
      "title": "全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f3989d02c5/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "专题研究报告：电网建设瓶颈与电力供应制约对超大规模云厂商AI算力部署的共同影响及估值压力测试",
          "summary": "专题研究报告：电网建设瓶颈与电力供应制约对超大规模云厂商AI算力部署的共同影响及估值压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-da17b6e11ede/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI 算力基础设施中的“电力与电网瓶颈”：成本传导逻辑与供应稳定性评估",
          "summary": "日期：2026-06-14 分析师：AI 基础设施分析师 (ai-infrastructure-analyst) 当前立场：压力测试 (stress-test)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-863b671388c1/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "算力电网瓶颈约束下的A股哑铃策略权重再平衡与尾部风险触发器设计",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-14 - 领衔分析师： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) - 本报告态度： 支持 (SUPPORT — 支持算力主线受电网容量与绿电指标约束，资本开支向电力基建分流并放缓硬件落地节奏的...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ae278b9c6218/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "META",
        "TSM",
        "AMD",
        "AVGO",
        "ASML"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-89c14497ac",
      "title": "期权伽马、ETF 与尾盘流动性正在放大主题交易的微观结构风险",
      "titleEn": "Options gamma, ETFs, and closing liquidity are amplifying microstructure risk in theme trades",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-89c14497ac/",
      "laneId": "lane_2ba2ee6db1ee",
      "lane": "期权伽马/市场微观结构",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/options-gamma-and-market-microstructure/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 62,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "科创50波动率偏度极端扩张下的 Delta/Gamma 风险暴露压力测试",
          "summary": "科创50波动率偏度极端扩张下的 Delta/Gamma 风险暴露压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2aa06642b4ef/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "跨资产风险溢价分裂：信用乐观 vs 期权焦虑",
          "summary": "跨资产风险溢价分裂：信用乐观 vs 期权焦虑 作者： 全球宏观分析师 (global-macro) 报告日期： 2026-06-14 (机构法定工作日) 态度： 初始分析 研究记录",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4954c76828ae/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-06-14 — 前序研究压力测试：USD/JPY Skew突变与零成本领口期权脆弱性",
          "summary": "2026-06-14 — 前序研究压力测试：USD/JPY Skew突变与零成本领口期权脆弱性",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-424883ce5d8a/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "CBOE",
        "CME",
        "HOOD",
        "IBKR",
        "VIRT",
        "VIXY"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-21dd72c1b1",
      "title": "航空航天与国防供应链错配正在形成政策驱动的制造业弹性",
      "titleEn": "Aerospace and defense supply-chain mismatch is creating policy-driven manufacturing beta",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-21dd72c1b1/",
      "laneId": "lane_1514a60f727a",
      "lane": "国防航空航天供应链",
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      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 55,
      "supports": 2,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "工业制造周报研究计划",
          "summary": "本周覆盖范围 / Coverage window: 2026-06-08 (周一) → 2026-06-12 (周五)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9913f8fa5978/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "QA review.md — 工业制造周报研究包质量复核",
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          "title": "策略合成：降息与贬值双重拐点下的A股风格切换与板块配置重估",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-9a860a8801",
      "title": "信用再融资压力正在把利率风险转化为资产负债表筛选",
      "titleEn": "Credit refinancing pressure is turning rate risk into balance-sheet selection",
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          "title": "银行二永债利差走阔对资本补充成本及NIM的传导效应分析",
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      "id": "thesis-813fa71c15",
      "title": "科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…",
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          "summary": "波动率曲面期限结构与Gamma密集区风险验证：科创50指数1600点破位及现货流动性枯竭压力测试",
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      "id": "thesis-07b4ef2695",
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          "title": "Warsh 美联储遭遇油价冲击：迈向 6 月 16–17 日 FOMC 的\"轻度滞胀\"",
          "summary": "Warsh 美联储遭遇油价冲击：迈向 6 月 16–17 日 FOMC 的\"轻度滞胀\"",
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          "title": "霍尔木兹油价冲击冻结美联储 —— 2026 下半年大类资产图谱",
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          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-05f0236262a3/",
          "stance": "risk",
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        {
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          "summary": "电力设备供应链与电网并网压力研究：变压器产能扩张与2027年后数据中心并网瓶颈分析",
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      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…",
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        {
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          "summary": "电网设备瓶颈对AI芯片与先进封装产能节奏的传导风险 日期 : 2026-06-14",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-77134b90a1",
      "title": "2026年7月拐点：7月24日Section 122关税悬崖与2026年伊朗战争能源冲击消退相撞，如何把美联储钉在“更高更久”",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年7月拐点：7月24日Section 122关税悬崖与2026年伊朗战争能源冲击消退相撞，如何把美联储钉在“更高更久”",
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      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
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          "summary": "分析师 ID : global-macro (全球宏观分析师) - 报告权威日期 : 2026-06-14 (亚洲/新加坡) - 目标 FOMC 会议 : 2026年6月16-17日 [S2] - 当前政策利率 : 3.50% – 3.75% [S8]",
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          "title": "Warsh 美联储遭遇油价冲击：迈向 6 月 16–17 日 FOMC 的\"轻度滞胀\"",
          "summary": "Warsh 美联储遭遇油价冲击：迈向 6 月 16–17 日 FOMC 的\"轻度滞胀\"",
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      "id": "thesis-d98ced0974",
      "title": "电力瓶颈会重排AI算力项目顺序，但不会让2025-2026年全球AI集群建设同步停摆。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力瓶颈会重排AI算力项目顺序，但不会让2025-2026年全球AI集群建设同步停摆。",
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      "conviction": 77,
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      "events": [
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          "title": "专题报告：中国AI算力基建的电力供给与特高压电网配置策略",
          "summary": "专题报告：中国AI算力基建的电力供给与特高压电网配置策略 报告日期：2026-06-14",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-031b844febb2/",
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        {
          "title": "研究记录08综合：电网设备约束下的AI算力可交付性",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-14 分析师： TMT Analyst 立场： 综合 - 支持电力瓶颈主线，校正关键测算，并将其转化为半导体、云计算与互联网行业含义。",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-a7f43e67af",
      "title": "在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a7f43e67af/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
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          "title": "Warsh 美联储遭遇油价冲击：迈向 6 月 16–17 日 FOMC 的\"轻度滞胀\"",
          "summary": "Warsh 美联储遭遇油价冲击：迈向 6 月 16–17 日 FOMC 的\"轻度滞胀\"",
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        {
          "title": "全球宏观研究：2026年6月FOMC前瞻与CPI冲击",
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        "OXY",
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      "id": "thesis-2a7c29557b",
      "title": "在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。",
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      "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选",
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      "events": [
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          "title": "电力顺价机制对 AI 算力 OPEX 与 Hyperscaler 利润率的冲击评估",
          "summary": "电力顺价机制对 AI 算力 OPEX 与 Hyperscaler 利润率的冲击评估",
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        {
          "title": "AI算力基础设施：聚焦GPU、先进封装及配套电力/液冷需求",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-14（Asia/Singapore） - 分析师：AI基础设施分析师 (ai-infrastructure-analyst) - 立场：Support（支持） - 板块：research discussion/e47d22e8-5fe8-4f0b-b968-012805c…",
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        "AMD",
        "VRT"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-ffa474a3f2",
      "title": "端侧 AI 与 Agent 桌面正在把算力竞争从云端扩展到芯片、OS 与消费电子供应链",
      "titleEn": "Edge AI and agent desktops are extending compute competition from cloud to chips, OS, and consumer-electronics supply...",
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      "laneId": "lane_74d352e86208",
      "lane": "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面",
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      "events": [
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          "title": "02 weekly research.md — 新兴科技主题研究周报：端侧AI芯片革命、量子2029路线图、ASCO创新药出...",
          "summary": "02 weekly research.md — 新兴科技主题研究周报：端侧AI芯片革命、量子2029路线图、ASCO创新药出海与太空/Web3流动性重置",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-514560c75b42/",
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        {
          "title": "前沿模型交付延期对B端SaaS商业化曲线及云巨头云计算收入增速的冲击评估",
          "summary": "前沿模型交付延期对B端SaaS商业化曲线及云巨头云计算收入增速的冲击评估 分析师： TMT行业分析师 日期： 2026年6月14日 研究讨论会 ID： [source-id-redacted] 立场： 压力测试...",
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        "QCOM",
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      "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层",
      "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/",
      "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a",
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      "conviction": 67,
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          "summary": "超大规模云厂商利润率分化及其对云端竞争格局的影响：依赖NVIDIA厂商的资本开支效率与AI应用层商业化能力压力测试",
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        {
          "title": "AI 算力供应链：贸易壁垒与出口管制对 ASIC TCO 的叠加冲击",
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      "events": [
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          "title": "超大规模云厂商电力采购策略与数据中心架构演变",
          "summary": "日期: 2026-06-14 分析师: AI基础设施分析师 (AI Infrastructure Analyst)",
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          "stance": "supports",
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        {
          "title": "AI算力基础设施：聚焦GPU、先进封装及配套电力/液冷需求",
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        "NVDA",
        "AMZN",
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      "id": "thesis-0346c87b0c",
      "title": "当前AI算力扩容的主瓶颈是电力和电网交付第一、芯片第二；没有已通电MW背书的纸面算力应被折价。",
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          "summary": "AI数据中心电力瓶颈与电网承载力测算：国内一线城市并网约束与算力资本开支落地分流评估",
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          "summary": "专题研究报告：电网建设瓶颈与电力供应制约对超大规模云厂商AI算力部署的共同影响及估值压力测试",
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          "summary": "专题研究报告：电网建设瓶颈与电力供应制约对超大规模云厂商AI算力部署的共同影响及估值压力测试",
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          "summary": "专题研究报告：电力并网约束下公用事业板块的费率基础扩张与信用红利平衡定量评估",
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      "id": "thesis-c2eb2a0b9d",
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      "conviction": 66,
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        {
          "title": "电力设备供应链与电网并网压力研究：变压器产能扩张与2027年后数据中心并网瓶颈分析",
          "summary": "电力设备供应链与电网并网压力研究：变压器产能扩张与2027年后数据中心并网瓶颈分析",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ac04d2c9cf48/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI数据中心电力瓶颈与电网承载力测算：国内一线城市并网约束与算力资本开支落地分流评估",
          "summary": "AI数据中心电力瓶颈与电网承载力测算：国内一线城市并网约束与算力资本开支落地分流评估",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-34b8522a3e19/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "002028.SZ",
        "601179.SH",
        "600089.SH",
        "CEG",
        "688676.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d1f5e35b43",
      "title": "2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d1f5e35b43/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "超大规模云厂商利润率分化及其对云端竞争格局的影响：依赖NVIDIA厂商的资本开支效率与AI应用层商业...",
          "summary": "超大规模云厂商利润率分化及其对云端竞争格局的影响：依赖NVIDIA厂商的资本开支效率与AI应用层商业化能力压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d72090614d42/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-06-14 — 云厂商利润挤压与算力定价权",
          "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师：TMT行业分析师 - 立场： 支持 - 工作日： 2026-06-14 （Asia/Singapore）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e36558d1e37f/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-b6f59efde4",
      "title": "包装油占比与原料顺价驱动利润率修复",
      "titleEn": "Packaged-oil mix and input-cost pass-through drive margin recovery",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b6f59efde4/",
      "laneId": "lane_13d7ced85300",
      "lane": "食品加工/成本传导",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-processing-and-input-cost-transmission/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI基础设施成本端的通胀传导与利润率压力测试：铜铝金属成本传导模型",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026年6月14日 分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst (AI基础设施分析师) 研究主题： AI基础设施成本通胀与利润率压力测试 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-test)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-027e73a2a48b/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "能源与物流成本上升对食品加工企业利润率的压力测试",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-14 (东八区/新加坡时间) 作者： 能源行业分析师 (Energy Analyst · energy-analyst ) 研究记录索引： 02/10 研究立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test · 评估中游制造业对能源成...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e94c7b28719d/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "001215.SZ",
        "600298.SH",
        "603027.SH",
        "300973.SZ",
        "603317.SH",
        "002852.SZ",
        "002847.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4f2d0121d3",
      "title": "高利润率出口材料企业需等待利润修复确认",
      "titleEn": "High-margin export materials require confirmation of profit recovery",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f2d0121d3/",
      "laneId": "lane_7e439482cbef",
      "lane": "中国出口制造/利润率",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-export-manufacturing-and-margins/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 64,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "原油突破100美元对全球能源产业链成本及电力设备利润率的二次压力测试",
          "summary": "报告发布日期：2026-06-14 研究看板研究记录索引：10 / 10 分析师角色：能源行业分析师 (Energy Analyst) 立场：压力测试 (Stress-test)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8187b46de22e/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "能源与物流成本上升对食品加工企业利润率的压力测试",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-14 (东八区/新加坡时间) 作者： 能源行业分析师 (Energy Analyst · energy-analyst ) 研究记录索引： 02/10 研究立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test · 评估中游制造业对能源成...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e94c7b28719d/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "600690.SH",
        "000333.SZ",
        "600900.SH",
        "002139.SZ",
        "2313.HK",
        "605183.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-be91bfe6ee",
      "title": "高纯石英材料需求需由先进封装订单验证",
      "titleEn": "High-purity quartz demand requires validation from advanced-packaging orders",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-be91bfe6ee/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 63,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-06-14 半导体观点：能效、液冷与先进封装是 AI 电力瓶颈的架构对冲",
          "summary": "2026-06-14 半导体观点：能效、液冷与先进封装是 AI 电力瓶颈的架构对冲",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1024cc49e65c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "半导体先进封装与国产设备/材料链：封装材料与关键设备在国产AI芯片突围中的作用",
          "summary": "半导体先进封装与国产设备/材料链：封装材料与关键设备在国产AI芯片突围中的作用",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-42520a5e35a3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "NVDA",
        "000660.KS",
        "688012.SH",
        "MU",
        "ASML",
        "002916.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f5d7a79c82",
      "title": "HBM4、CoWoS 与背面供电正在成为 AI 服务器需求曲线的串行闸门",
      "titleEn": "HBM4, CoWoS, and backside power are becoming serial gates for the AI-server demand curve",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5d7a79c82/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 62,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电力供应瓶颈下AI芯片的能效比革命与架构演进 (2026-06-14)",
          "summary": "核心观点： 尽管台积电A16背面供电（BSPDN）、HBM4及硅光子（CPO）技术等半导体创新将AI系统的单比特能耗降低了15%至75%，但由于模型规模与单芯片功耗（如英伟达Rubin架构TDP达2300W）的指数级...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e82b649f11d7/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-06-14 半导体观点：能效、液冷与先进封装是 AI 电力瓶颈的架构对冲",
          "summary": "2026-06-14 半导体观点：能效、液冷与先进封装是 AI 电力瓶颈的架构对冲",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1024cc49e65c/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "000660.KS",
        "MU",
        "AMD",
        "META",
        "AVGO",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "ASML"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3986819dc0",
      "title": "A 股半导体的核心风险从订单验证转向 A/H 溢价、两融与负 Gamma",
      "titleEn": "A-share semiconductor risk is shifting from order proof to A/H premium, margin financing, and negative gamma",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3986819dc0/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 61,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "科创50杠杆率极值背景下，半导体核心资产的估值安全性与流动性边际",
          "summary": "作者：半导体分析师 (semiconductors-analyst) - 日期：2026-06-14（Asia/Singapore，机构工作日） - 板卡） - 立场：stress-test（压力测试） - 上游：research note（首席策略师）指出科创50...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dc8bc41c72b3/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "波动率曲面期限结构与Gamma密集区风险验证：科创50指数1600点破位及现货流动性枯竭压力测试",
          "summary": "波动率曲面期限结构与Gamma密集区风险验证：科创50指数1600点破位及现货流动性枯竭压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2f6a4074c4e6/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "688981.SH",
        "688256.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688041.SH",
        "600900.SH",
        "688012.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688008.SH",
        "300308.SZ",
        "002371.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-6f42e0fe6e",
      "title": "稀土、铜铝与关键材料正在成为 AI 与新能源共用的供给约束",
      "titleEn": "Rare earths, copper, aluminum, and key materials are becoming shared supply constraints for AI and energy transition",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6f42e0fe6e/",
      "laneId": "lane_8c4a3526fcca",
      "lane": "关键材料/稀土铜铝",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/critical-materials-rare-earths-copper-and-aluminum/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 58,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "变压器核心原材料(GOES与铜)的供应弹性与产能周期评估 (2026年6月)",
          "summary": "变压器核心原材料(GOES与铜)的供应弹性与产能周期评估 (2026年6月) 日期： 2026-06-14 分析师： 材料行业分析师 状态： 对研究记录03论点的压力测试 (Stress-Test)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c7c1a5699d33/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "出口管制政策下取向硅钢（GOES）的全球供应格局与成本结构分析",
          "summary": "研究记录 - 作者：材料行业分析师 (materials-analyst) - 立场：support（支持并细化 research note 关于 GOES 出口许可冲击的判断） - 工作日期：2026-06-14（Asia/Singapore） - 主题：评估中...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cc6025dbb8d2/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "FCX",
        "GEV",
        "000831.SZ",
        "SCCO",
        "ETN",
        "MP",
        "TECK",
        "600111.SH",
        "600089.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-9d3836cc07",
      "title": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证",
      "titleEn": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d3836cc07/",
      "laneId": "lane_008e3bd9306a",
      "lane": "AI 软件效率/生产率",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-software-productivity/",
      "direction": "stable",
      "directionLabel": "稳定",
      "conviction": 58,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI 算力供应链：贸易壁垒与出口管制对 ASIC TCO 的叠加冲击",
          "summary": "AI 算力供应链：贸易壁垒与出口管制对 ASIC TCO 的叠加冲击 分析日期： 2026-06-14 分析师： 主题研究员 (thematic-researcher) 研究线程标识： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录索引...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-415d223f8e1a/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "压力测试 AI 基础设施成长极：电力瓶颈、电网节奏与算力扩张可行性",
          "summary": "日期： 2026-06-14 分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 研究主题： 霍尔木兹油价冲击与 Warsh 主席治下美联储的政策冻结：2026 下半年大类资产路径 主题： AI...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-966133756d9d/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL",
        "NVDA",
        "NOW",
        "CRM",
        "ADBE"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-44cf9d91f6",
      "title": "中国大健康 Alpha 正从医保压价转向创新药出海、临床确定性与设备刚需",
      "titleEn": "China healthcare alpha is moving from reimbursement pressure to overseas licensing, clinical certainty, and equipment...",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-44cf9d91f6/",
      "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b",
      "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 57,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "离岸产能风格极化下，A股创新药两融杠杆压力测试",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-14（Asia/Singapore，权威工作日） - 研究记录 - 分析师： 首席策略师（ agy ） - 立场： 压力测试",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b4e53d228e0f/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "研究研究大健康产业链首次覆盖与低关注度高阿尔法标的挖掘",
          "summary": "作者：医药行业分析师 (Healthcare Analyst, healthcare-analyst ) 报告日期：2026-06-14 (Asia/Singapore，机构权威工作日) 研究记录索引：1/10 立场：支持 (Support — 首次激活与低覆盖阿尔...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-536e4f9bfc77/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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        "600276.SH",
        "1801.HK",
        "2269.HK",
        "9926.HK",
        "6990.HK",
        "300760.SZ",
        "603259.SH",
        "1177.HK",
        "002821.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-fd31cc177b",
      "title": "债券供给、地方债与久期需求决定利率下行空间",
      "titleEn": "Bond supply, local-government debt, and duration demand define room for rates to fall",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fd31cc177b/",
      "laneId": "lane_6fbf93c613f9",
      "lane": "债券供给/银行久期",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/bond-supply-and-bank-duration/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 54,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "汇率锚定下国债曲线的骑乘价值与城投/二永债的久期-信用双重风险",
          "summary": "分析师 ID : bond-analyst (债券分析师) - 报告权威日期 : 2026-06-14 (亚洲/新加坡) - 政策背景 : 中国人民银行“弃量保汇”与美联储 Kevin Warsh 主导下的鹰派转向 [S9] - 国债 10Y 基准利率...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4418ab5fe2e6/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-06-14 A股策略：银行资本供给、高股息防御与精选大行敞口",
          "summary": "分析师 ID : chief-strategist - 报告权威日期 : 2026-06-14（亚洲/新加坡） - 当前立场 : 综合 - 核心问题 : 如果监管只平滑TLAC/二级资本债供给、但拒绝放松真实资本门槛，A股策略是否应继续...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e33ecbe319b0/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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        "601939.SH",
        "601288.SH",
        "3988.HK",
        "600900.SH",
        "TLT",
        "IEF",
        "000001.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-08dd090dc9",
      "title": "公用事业从防御红利切换到电网扩容、容量费与信用再定价",
      "titleEn": "Utilities are shifting from defensive dividends to grid expansion, capacity fees, and credit repricing",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08dd090dc9/",
      "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e",
      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
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          "title": "专题研究报告：电力并网约束下公用事业板块的费率基础扩张与信用红利平衡定量评估",
          "summary": "专题研究报告：电力并网约束下公用事业板块的费率基础扩张与信用红利平衡定量评估",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9fe96066ae33/",
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          "summary": "能源行业分析师专题研究报告：AI用电激增下能源供给侧扩张、燃料成本波动与电网信用韧性压力测试",
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    {
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      "titleEn": "Yen carry unwind is a tail liquidity risk for EM tech, offshore China, and high-beta themes",
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      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
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          "summary": "作者：全球宏观分析师 (global-macro) - 工作日：2026-06-14（Asia/Singapore） - 研究记录 ｜ 立场：support（延续研究记录3压力测试结论） - 主题：离岸人民币（CNH）流动性枯竭对 USD/CNH 利...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-185d8e293254/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "日元套息平仓尾部下的美元/欧元/JGB曲线与payer/receiver凸性执行：零Theta领口策略与日债熊陡配置",
          "summary": "日元套息平仓尾部下的美元/欧元/JGB曲线与payer/receiver凸性执行：零Theta领口策略与日债熊陡配置",
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      "title": "中国出口制造的胜负手从低价扩张转向利润率、合规和本地化",
      "titleEn": "Chinese export manufacturing is shifting from low-price expansion to margin, compliance, and localization",
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      "laneId": "lane_7e439482cbef",
      "lane": "中国出口制造/利润率",
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      "events": [
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          "summary": "报告发布日期：2026-06-14 研究看板研究记录索引：10 / 10 分析师角色：能源行业分析师 (Energy Analyst) 立场：压力测试 (Stress-test)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8187b46de22e/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "能源与物流成本上升对食品加工企业利润率的压力测试",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-14 (东八区/新加坡时间) 作者： 能源行业分析师 (Energy Analyst · energy-analyst ) 研究记录索引： 02/10 研究立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test · 评估中游制造业对能源成...",
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        "002475.SZ",
        "2020.HK"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-1aaa752ed4",
      "title": "AI 电力与电网瓶颈仍是基础设施主线",
      "titleEn": "AI power and grid bottlenecks remain the infrastructure core",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-1aaa752ed4/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
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      "events": [
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          "title": "电力设备供应链与电网并网压力研究：变压器产能扩张与2027年后数据中心并网瓶颈分析",
          "summary": "电力设备供应链与电网并网压力研究：变压器产能扩张与2027年后数据中心并网瓶颈分析",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ac04d2c9cf48/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "ASEAN Power Grid与电网扩容对2026-2030年AI电力真空期的压力测试",
          "summary": "ASEAN Power Grid与电网扩容对2026-2030年AI电力真空期的压力测试 工作日期： 2026-06-14（Asia/Singapore） 分析师： 公用事业分析师 [utilities-analyst] 立场： stress-test 研究记录",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aa58a7989686/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "CEG",
        "002028.SZ",
        "META",
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        "MSFT",
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    },
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      "title": "航运与物流成本是油价、关税和供应链再通胀的二阶传导器",
      "titleEn": "Shipping and logistics costs are a second-order transmission channel for oil, tariffs, and supply-chain reflation",
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      "laneId": "lane_79a55cd8530e",
      "lane": "航运物流/再通胀传导",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/shipping-logistics-and-reflation-transmission/",
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "能源供应风险与油价通胀传导 - 2026-06-14",
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          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-43b15dd66515/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026年秋播化肥储备前置投放与物流执行力评估报告",
          "summary": "日期： 2026-06-14 区域： 冀鲁豫（黄淮海地区） 立场： 压力测试（Stress-Test）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-edd20d90ec9c/",
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        "1919.HK",
        "ZIM",
        "MATX",
        "600026.SH",
        "600018.SH",
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e4e956cd41",
      "title": "通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e4e956cd41/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
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        {
          "title": "研究报告：USD/JPY Basis 突破 -70bp 引发的风险平价联动清算量化",
          "summary": "研究报告：USD/JPY Basis 突破 -70bp 引发的风险平价联动清算量化",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-05f0236262a3/",
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "IEF",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-a60b131c8c",
      "title": "面对4.2%的总体CPI与108美元的布伦特原油，新任主席沃什将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上如何调整点阵图与政策立场？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 面对4.2%的总体CPI与108美元的布伦特原油，新任主席沃什将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上如何调整点阵图与政策立场？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a60b131c8c/",
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      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Warsh 美联储遭遇油价冲击：迈向 6 月 16–17 日 FOMC 的\"轻度滞胀\"",
          "summary": "Warsh 美联储遭遇油价冲击：迈向 6 月 16–17 日 FOMC 的\"轻度滞胀\"",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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        "OXY",
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    {
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      "title": "AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5c45703323/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
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      "conviction": 79,
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      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "变压器及电网关键设备供应瓶颈：2026-2027年AI Capex落地的终极约束",
          "summary": "变压器及电网关键设备供应瓶颈：2026-2027年AI Capex落地的终极约束",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8eaf817369bb/",
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        "NVDA",
        "AMD",
        "MU",
        "AVGO",
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      "title": "美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0011ad682c/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
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      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 波动率偏斜极端化下的 Put Spread 策略有效性边界",
          "summary": "USD/JPY 波动率偏斜极端化下的 Put Spread 策略有效性边界",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-500e744c2ca8/",
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "TLT",
        "IEF"
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      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2e367ef854/",
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      "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "全球宏观研究：2026年6月FOMC前瞻与CPI冲击",
          "summary": "全球宏观研究：2026年6月FOMC前瞻与CPI冲击 日期: 2026-06-14 分析师: global-macro",
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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        "XLU",
        "TLT"
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    {
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      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cafa5bcd5/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-06-14 压力测试：USD/CNY 突破 7.0 与北向资金放大效应",
          "summary": "2026-06-14 压力测试：USD/CNY 突破 7.0 与北向资金放大效应",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3b08c182df78/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-08b70be7bf",
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      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08b70be7bf/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电力设备供应链与电网并网压力研究：变压器产能扩张与2027年后数据中心并网瓶颈分析",
          "summary": "电力设备供应链与电网并网压力研究：变压器产能扩张与2027年后数据中心并网瓶颈分析",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ac04d2c9cf48/",
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        "002028.SZ",
        "ETN",
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        "601179.SH",
        "688676.SH",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-8ca3d181f3",
      "title": "能源价格重心的下移提供了一次缓和全球“滞胀”压力的正向供给冲击，虽然成功消解了美欧央行的强行加息风险，但在低储蓄率、物流滞后与-273…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源价格重心的下移提供了一次缓和全球“滞胀”压力的正向供给冲击，虽然成功消解了美欧央行的强行加息风险，但在低储蓄率、物流滞后与-273…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8ca3d181f3/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Warsh 美联储遭遇油价冲击：迈向 6 月 16–17 日 FOMC 的\"轻度滞胀\"",
          "summary": "Warsh 美联储遭遇油价冲击：迈向 6 月 16–17 日 FOMC 的\"轻度滞胀\"",
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      "title": "基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 基准配置应优先通过久期表达去通胀与政策失误风险，权益只做选择性低贝塔，商品低配整体贝塔但保留油价重上100美元的显式尾部对冲。",
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        {
          "title": "Warsh 美联储遭遇油价冲击：迈向 6 月 16–17 日 FOMC 的\"轻度滞胀\"",
          "summary": "Warsh 美联储遭遇油价冲击：迈向 6 月 16–17 日 FOMC 的\"轻度滞胀\"",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-b3e89f22e6",
      "title": "在极端关税与30%原料通胀的压力下，全球电网设备（利用率98%、美交期128周）的硬约束赋予A股厂商极强的定价权与贸易规避弹性，其出口高…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在极端关税与30%原料通胀的压力下，全球电网设备（利用率98%、美交期128周）的硬约束赋予A股厂商极强的定价权与贸易规避弹性，其出口高…",
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          "title": "变压器及电网关键设备供应瓶颈：2026-2027年AI Capex落地的终极约束",
          "summary": "变压器及电网关键设备供应瓶颈：2026-2027年AI Capex落地的终极约束",
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        "601179.SH",
        "GEV",
        "688676.SH",
        "ETN",
        "000400.SZ"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-7930de9cdc",
      "title": "沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。",
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      "id": "thesis-57faae4252",
      "title": "能源供应约束对AI基础设施资本开支效率的影响：电力缺口能否支撑超大规模厂商的扩容预期？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源供应约束对AI基础设施资本开支效率的影响：电力缺口能否支撑超大规模厂商的扩容预期？",
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          "summary": "电力设备供应链与电网并网压力研究：变压器产能扩张与2027年后数据中心并网瓶颈分析",
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      "title": "外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…",
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      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
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      "conviction": 78,
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        {
          "title": "招商蛇口商业REIT落地与开发商投资性房地产估值的信用传导分析",
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      "id": "thesis-979591277f",
      "title": "能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险",
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      "conviction": 77,
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        {
          "title": "美联储\"鹰派按兵不动\"：USD/CNY 汇率压力与全球套利交易的稳定性",
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      "title": "人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析",
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          "title": "强美元下PBOC的人民币-内需反应函数 — 2026-06-14",
          "summary": "工作日期： 2026-06-14（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师： global-macro 立场： synthesize（在research note鹰派FOMC与research note套息/CNH框架基础上综合）",
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      "id": "thesis-c71e511c1c",
      "title": "电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。",
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      "conviction": 77,
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          "title": "2026-06-14 半导体观点：能效、液冷与先进封装是 AI 电力瓶颈的架构对冲",
          "summary": "2026-06-14 半导体观点：能效、液冷与先进封装是 AI 电力瓶颈的架构对冲",
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      "title": "宇航电源份额与卫星交付驱动电科蓝天兑现",
      "titleEn": "Space-Power Share and Satellite Deliveries Drive CETC Solar Energy Monetization",
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      "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 74,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "周末深度主题扫描 - 2026-06-14",
          "summary": "锚定日期：本报告先以 shell 输出 2026-06-14 为“今天”。“过去5个交易日”定义为 2026-06-08 至 2026-06-12，价格表现使用 2026-06-05 收盘至 2026-06-12 收盘的 close-to-close 口径。市场...",
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      "id": "thesis-ab1fb6a453",
      "title": "DeepSeek 式低价模型正在重塑 AI 定价权与软件利润池",
      "titleEn": "DeepSeek-style low-cost models are reshaping AI pricing power and software profit pools",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ab1fb6a453/",
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          "summary": "前沿模型交付延期对B端SaaS商业化曲线及云巨头云计算收入增速的冲击评估 分析师： TMT行业分析师 日期： 2026年6月14日 研究讨论会 ID： [source-id-redacted] 立场： 压力测试...",
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      "title": "高纯石英材料受益于先进封装扩产，但兑现取决于认证与产品结构",
      "titleEn": "High-purity quartz can benefit from advanced-packaging expansion, conditional on qualification and mix",
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          "summary": "2026-06-14 半导体观点：能效、液冷与先进封装是 AI 电力瓶颈的架构对冲",
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      "id": "thesis-d8170c3a35",
      "title": "近海资本开支与设备利用率驱动油服盈利弹性",
      "titleEn": "Offshore capex and equipment utilization drive oilfield-service earnings leverage",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d8170c3a35/",
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        {
          "title": "霍尔木兹油价冲击冻结美联储 —— 2026 下半年大类资产图谱",
          "summary": "分析师：global-macro（全球宏观分析师） - 研究记录 - 工作日期（Asia/Singapore）：2026-06-14 - 立场：initial（初判）",
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        "COP",
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      "id": "thesis-31f32af77b",
      "title": "中国云与国产算力栈的关键不是模型热度，而是训练/推理订单、服务器交付和生态锁定",
      "titleEn": "China cloud and local compute stacks depend less on model hype than training/inference orders, server delivery, and e...",
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      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-cloud-and-local-compute-stack/",
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      "conviction": 66,
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      "events": [
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          "title": "算力电网瓶颈约束下的A股哑铃策略权重再平衡与尾部风险触发器设计",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-14 - 领衔分析师： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) - 本报告态度： 支持 (SUPPORT — 支持算力主线受电网容量与绿电指标约束，资本开支向电力基建分流并放缓硬件落地节奏的...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ae278b9c6218/",
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "9988.HK",
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      "id": "thesis-a3cb9196a0",
      "title": "随着AI算力扩建撞上电力电网并网物理速度墙，变压器与硅钢（GOES）结构性缺口高达30%，投产延迟WACC损失巨大，形成约35倍的经济杠…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 随着AI算力扩建撞上电力电网并网物理速度墙，变压器与硅钢（GOES）结构性缺口高达30%，投产延迟WACC损失巨大，形成约35倍的经济杠…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a3cb9196a0/",
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      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
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          "summary": "电力设备供应链与电网并网压力研究：变压器产能扩张与2027年后数据中心并网瓶颈分析",
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        "002028.SZ",
        "ETN",
        "601179.SH",
        "600089.SH",
        "688676.SH",
        "CEG"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-df608ec2a1",
      "title": "AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-df608ec2a1/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
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      "conviction": 66,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电力设备供应链与电网并网压力研究：变压器产能扩张与2027年后数据中心并网瓶颈分析",
          "summary": "电力设备供应链与电网并网压力研究：变压器产能扩张与2027年后数据中心并网瓶颈分析",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ac04d2c9cf48/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "688676.SH",
        "VST"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-612f83a611",
      "title": "地缘原油冲击导致的通胀传导（推升核心PCE至4.16%）将促使无前瞻指引的沃什美联储通过在9月和年底连续加息两次（至4.00%–4.25…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘原油冲击导致的通胀传导（推升核心PCE至4.16%）将促使无前瞻指引的沃什美联储通过在9月和年底连续加息两次（至4.00%–4.25…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-612f83a611/",
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      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Warsh 美联储遭遇油价冲击：迈向 6 月 16–17 日 FOMC 的\"轻度滞胀\"",
          "summary": "Warsh 美联储遭遇油价冲击：迈向 6 月 16–17 日 FOMC 的\"轻度滞胀\"",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b8b7f781c1fd/",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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      "stockTickers": [
        "SLB",
        "OXY",
        "0883.HK"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-a10279b001",
      "title": "面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a10279b001/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
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      "conviction": 66,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI算力基础设施：聚焦GPU、先进封装及配套电力/液冷需求",
          "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-14（Asia/Singapore） - 分析师：AI基础设施分析师 (ai-infrastructure-analyst) - 立场：Support（支持） - 板块：research discussion/e47d22e8-5fe8-4f0b-b968-012805c…",
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        "META",
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "AMD",
        "AVGO"
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      "id": "thesis-a119a01ce4",
      "title": "评估AI算力能耗增长对电力与电网瓶颈的影响，以及能源成本压力如何传导至下游CXO产业链。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 评估AI算力能耗增长对电力与电网瓶颈的影响，以及能源成本压力如何传导至下游CXO产业链。",
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      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
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      "conviction": 66,
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          "title": "AI数据中心电力瓶颈与电网承载力测算：国内一线城市并网约束与算力资本开支落地分流评估",
          "summary": "AI数据中心电力瓶颈与电网承载力测算：国内一线城市并网约束与算力资本开支落地分流评估",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-34b8522a3e19/",
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        "VST",
        "002028.SZ",
        "CEG",
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        "600089.SH"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-b37a11e5a3",
      "title": "FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b37a11e5a3/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
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      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 0,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-06-14 半导体观点：能效、液冷与先进封装是 AI 电力瓶颈的架构对冲",
          "summary": "2026-06-14 半导体观点：能效、液冷与先进封装是 AI 电力瓶颈的架构对冲",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1024cc49e65c/",
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      "id": "thesis-70daf87262",
      "title": "A 股红利与硬科技杠铃仍是政策、利率和风险偏好的组合表达",
      "titleEn": "A-share dividend and hard-tech barbell remains the portfolio expression of policy, rates, and risk appetite",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-70daf87262/",
      "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a",
      "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/",
      "direction": "strengthening",
      "directionLabel": "强化",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 1,
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        {
          "title": "研究记录 · 首席策略师挑战：硬科技\"哑铃\"框架对A股的水土不服",
          "summary": "日期：2026-06-14（亚洲/新加坡） - 作者：首席策略师（chief-strategist） - 立场：deny（否认/纠偏） - 上游基础：研究记录（asset-allocator 哑铃配置）、研究记录（semiconductors-analyst...",
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          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
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        "601398.SH",
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        "600941.SH",
        "588000.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "601939.SH",
        "510880.SH"
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      "id": "thesis-100e81e234",
      "title": "AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-100e81e234/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
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      "neutral": 0,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-06-14 半导体观点：能效、液冷与先进封装是 AI 电力瓶颈的架构对冲",
          "summary": "2026-06-14 半导体观点：能效、液冷与先进封装是 AI 电力瓶颈的架构对冲",
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      "title": "Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bc1d8e9af8/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 1,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "沃什时代首秀：6月FOMC前瞻与二次通胀阴霾下的美联储政策转向",
          "summary": "分析师 ID : global-macro (全球宏观分析师) - 报告权威日期 : 2026-06-14 (亚洲/新加坡) - 目标 FOMC 会议 : 2026年6月16-17日 [S2] - 当前政策利率 : 3.50% – 3.75% [S8]",
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "IEF",
        "UUP"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-8b23f98d54",
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      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 四大云厂商2026年创纪录的7250亿美元CapEx具有强战略刚性，但变压器3-6年交期与电网并网时滞导致800-1100亿美元开支递延…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8b23f98d54/",
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      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 65,
      "supports": 0,
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      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "变压器及电网关键设备供应瓶颈：2026-2027年AI Capex落地的终极约束",
          "summary": "变压器及电网关键设备供应瓶颈：2026-2027年AI Capex落地的终极约束",
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      "title": "2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4e383ee09c/",
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      "conviction": 65,
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        {
          "title": "电力顺价机制对 AI 算力 OPEX 与 Hyperscaler 利润率的冲击评估",
          "summary": "电力顺价机制对 AI 算力 OPEX 与 Hyperscaler 利润率的冲击评估",
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      "titleEn": "MSCI rebalance windows are liquidity events where passive demand meets active exits",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-029ce03da1/",
      "laneId": "lane_122bdfde6ea9",
      "lane": "指数调仓/被动资金事件",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/index-rebalance-and-passive-flow-events/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 64,
      "supports": 0,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "研究记录 06 2026-06-14 A股红利因子衰减与质量成长动量接力",
          "summary": "研究记录 06 2026-06-14 A股红利因子衰减与质量成长动量接力",
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      "title": "消费降级、健康刚需与银发经济正在重塑防御型增长",
      "titleEn": "Consumer downgrade, healthcare necessities, and the silver economy are reshaping defensive growth",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8b8ede3135/",
      "laneId": "lane_8cf8740aac77",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 62,
      "supports": 0,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "能源通胀传导下的终端需求弹性与B2B配料需求稳定性分析",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-14 (东八区/新加坡时间) - 作者： 消费行业分析师 (Consumer Analyst · consumer-analyst ) - 研究记录索引： 03/10 - 研究立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test · 评估终端消费...",
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        "001215.SZ",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-7a6599a3f5",
      "title": "新一代信息技术国产替代要从信创叙事进入算力、软件与安全订单验证",
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      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a6599a3f5/",
      "laneId": "lane_e4f90acbf804",
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      "conviction": 62,
      "supports": 1,
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      "events": [
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        "688008.SH",
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      "id": "thesis-241377c8be",
      "title": "显示材料改善需由利润率与现金流共同确认",
      "titleEn": "Display-material recovery requires joint margin and cash-flow confirmation",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-241377c8be/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 59,
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          "title": "AI基础设施成本端的通胀传导与利润率压力测试：铜铝金属成本传导模型",
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