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"category": "其他", "excerpt": "作者： 半导体分析师 (Semiconductors Analyst) 日期： 2026-06-13 (Asia/Singapore) 分析立场： 支持 (Support) — 支持并深化前序关于AI电力瓶颈的结论，从芯片与微观电源架构层面论证高效率...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-3d0730c8c031", "title": "AI基建挤出效应下半导体利润率压力测试", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3d0730c8c031/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "报告日期： 2026-06-13（Asia/Singapore，研究院权威工作日期） 研究线程标识： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录索引： 4/10 分析师： 半导体分析师（ID: semiconductors-analyst）...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-8690d629fd3b", "title": "Phase III 资产 BD 估值地板的临床与商业尽调清单", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8690d629fd3b/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "Phase III 资产 BD 估值地板的临床与商业尽调清单 Date: 2026-06-13 Analyst: biotech-analyst Topic: Phase III资产级BD估值地板的临床与商业尽调清单 Stance: Synthesize", "tags": [ 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"analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "作者：首席策略师 (chief-strategist) 权威工作日：2026-06-13（新加坡 / 北京时间） 当前课题：竣工链系统性下行背景下A股组合的板块轮动与红利防御配置 研究立场：合成（Synthesize）—— 将8...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-cd228be197c3", "title": "特种半导体：卫星互联网建设的\"卖铲人\"", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cd228be197c3/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究记录 · 分析师： 半导体分析师 · 立场： 支持（support） 工作日： 2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡） · 根主题： SpaceX上市是否把Web3风险预算吸进太空/AI IPO？ 主题： 卫星互联网建设对特种...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-b304ec3cae64", "title": "办公客流按工作日转正——office REIT 大涨是否有基本面支撑？", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b304ec3cae64/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究研究记录 · 房地产分析师 · 工作日期：2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡） 根主题： 办公客流按工作日转正，office REIT 大涨是否有基本面支撑？ 任务： Placer.ai 显示 5 月办公访问按工作日 +3...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-472d3e5745b8", "title": "压力测试：离岸 CNH 衍生品平仓潮对中资银行交易账簿的系统性风险", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-472d3e5745b8/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "日期： 2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师： 首席风控官（Chief Risk Officer） 研究记录 ｜ 立场：压力测试 （针对 既有研究记录隐含的\"系统性风险\"定性） 主题： 6.75 枢轴位的 Gamma...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-f2f977d4b9f5", "title": "新华财经海洋经济产业链扫描 — 2026-06-13", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f2f977d4b9f5/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至 2026-06-13（Asia/Singapore），我支持启动新华财经海洋经济产业链研究，但不建议把它当作宽基主题篮子处理。研究诊断显示，过去 30 日仅 8/148 个标的被激活，激活率 5.4% [来源不明]，说...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-bba110a1ae8a", "title": "组合风险预警：科创50极端回撤的VaR冲击与跨板块踩踏压力测试", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bba110a1ae8a/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "摘要 / Executive Summary 基于2026年6月13日A股市场结构，针对策略团队提出的科创50单日20%极端回撤情景，本风控报告执行了组合级VaR压力测试。测算显示，科创板20%跌幅引发的追保压力（约2.65...", "tags": [ "AI", "A股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-a7eec296f71c", "title": "信用研究报告：生物医药研发违约向地方政府引导基金（LGGF）与城投平台（LGFV）的风险传导", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7eec296f71c/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "信用研究报告：生物医药研发违约向地方政府引导基金（LGGF）与城投平台（LGFV）的风险传导 工作日期： 2026-06-13 分析师： credit-analyst (信用分析师) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-test)", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-ba1c94f5b23e", "title": "既有研究记录— 黄金/现金配置在人民币汇率波动与 A 股流动性压力下的防御效用评估", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ba1c94f5b23e/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "既有研究记录— 黄金/现金配置在人民币汇率波动与 A 股流动性压力下的防御效用评估 - 工作日期： 2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 作者： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) - 立场： 压力...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-99f951322649", "title": "销量弹性对杠铃组合防御垫的二次冲击测试（2026-06-13）", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99f951322649/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "date: 2026-06-13 analyst: 消费行业分析师 (consumer-analyst) stance: stress-test topic: 消费税改革极端情景下，高端白酒与调味品需求弹性对组合防御韧性的影响", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-58e59d5791ed", "title": "能源价格韧性对轻度滞胀逻辑的验证及其对大宗商品配置的影响", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-58e59d5791ed/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "第 6/8 张 - 作者： 能源分析师 · 立场： 支持 （推进研究记录 05 的大类资产配置逻辑） - 工作日： 2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 一句话论点： 能源价格的韧性源于结构性的供给侧冲击（伊朗冲...", "tags": [ "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-2a4966e5159e", "title": "A股食品板块估值分析：功能性食品的溢价韧性是否已反映在市场定价中？", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2a4966e5159e/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-06-13（Asia/Singapore） - 研究记录 - 分析师：首席策略师（A股策略与风格轮动视角） - 立场：support（支持 既有研究记录的量化结论，并进一步指出市场存在认知偏误与...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-44a292061e06", "title": "Brent/JPY/Fed冲击下的多资产权重调整，2026-06-13", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-44a292061e06/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日 2026-06-13，我 支持 前序判断：组合仍应以风险平价为约束，但风险构成要从美股Beta和日元融资套利，转向黄金与上限明确的原油凸性。触发器不能只看即期Brent：2026-06-12的Br...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-6d0830496f4a", "title": "前序研究 —— 能源价格波动对通胀右尾及美联储路径的压力测试", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6d0830496f4a/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-06-15 - - 分析师：能源行业分析师（energy-analyst） - 立场：对前序研究\"海运费仅为右尾输入、并非Fed路径宏观锚\"结论的 stress-test（压力测试）", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-e691a051169b", "title": "生命健康和生物科技产业链调研 — 工作日期 2026-06-13", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e691a051169b/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日期 2026-06-13，我支持激活这条研究不足的产业链：研究显示过去 30 日仅激活 10 个标的、覆盖 174 个候选中的 5.7% [S0]。这不是笼统的“买医药”结论，而是围绕近期披露中已经...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-ff5fdd55a8da", "title": "科创50流动性传导压力下的组合重构：流动性缓冲与跨资产对冲策略", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ff5fdd55a8da/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-06-13（Asia/Singapore） - 角色：首席策略师（Chief Strategist） - 立场：support（在风控团队VaR冲击测算之上，提出可执行的权重与对冲方案） - 研究记录", "tags": [ "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-fdee570a3900", "title": "配电网变电容量扩容与智算中心快速交付的匹配性评估", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fdee570a3900/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "报告发布日期：2026-06-13 [S1] 分析师：公用事业分析师 (Utilities Analyst) 研究立场：压力测试 (Stress-test) 研究来源：已归档 本报告索引：prior researc...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-8e473e9ec6c3", "title": "宏观增长放缓下的资产配置：防御性策略与久期管理", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8e473e9ec6c3/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "第 5/8 张 - 作者： 首席策略师（代行大类资产配置师）· 立场： 支持 （在研究记录 04「增长折损、而非衰退触发」综合判断基础上推进） - 工作日： 2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 一句话论点：...", "tags": [ "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-5f53dd0ee892", "title": "消费端需求韧性与品类结构修复验证 — 工作日期 2026-06-13", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5f53dd0ee892/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至机构工作日期 2026-06-13，我支持 research note 的方向，但需要收窄结论：B端餐饮与面向消费者的零售场景确有韧性，品类结构也在修复，但毛利修复尚未自动兑现。2026年1—4月，全国餐饮收...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-7bba109a1cdb", "title": "全球宏观研究：现货中枢上移下的 USD/CNH 隐含波动率", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7bba109a1cdb/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "日期：2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡 研究院工作日） - 分析师：全球宏观分析师 - 研究记录 — 立场： 支持 （延展 既有研究记录的\"6.75 是枢轴而非墙\"） - 当前问题：6.75 由支撑转为阻力后...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-c1476c793717", "title": "前序研究研究报告 — 2026-06-13", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c1476c793717/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日 2026-06-13 [自测算：已用 system date 核对]，我的立场是 支持 增加中国国债久期，并将部分红利仓转向低拥挤度的银行类红利，但这只能作为 带风险预算的对冲，不能被当作新的...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-779a14edc5eb", "title": "压力测试：资产负债表衰退风险与高息资产荒下的信贷下沉策略", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-779a14edc5eb/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "压力测试：资产负债表衰退风险与高息资产荒下的信贷下沉策略 日期：2026-06-13 分析师：credit-analyst (信用分析师) 核心论点：在“高息资产荒”与资产负债表衰退的背景下，银行信贷下沉至普惠...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-9c81d0cb4d3e", "title": "区域银行 SMB 信贷收缩对 2026 年下半年美国宏观的拖累", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c81d0cb4d3e/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-06-13。我的判断是对前序链条做 综合校准：CRE 敞口偏高的区域银行问题是真实的，但传导到 2026 年下半年 GDP 与非农就业，更像是可量化的增长折损，而不是已经发生的衰退型信贷...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-96f86589f529", "title": "合成研究报告：关税威胁下出口商套保困境的宏观反馈、境内美元囤积与央行政策抉择", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-96f86589f529/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "合成研究报告：关税威胁下出口商套保困境的宏观反馈、境内美元囤积与央行政策抉择 - 工作日期： 2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 作者： 中国宏观分析师 ( china-macro ) - 研究来源：已归档", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-1c792330ab7a", "title": "电网设备供应瓶颈与配电网络建设节奏", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1c792330ab7a/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "电网设备供应瓶颈与配电网络建设节奏 分析师： Utilities Analyst (公用事业分析师) 工作日期： 2026-06-13 (Asia/Singapore) 立场： Support (支持) 研究记录", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-6cc6243da5ee", "title": "前序研究研究报告 — 2026-06-13", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cc6243da5ee/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日 2026-06-13，我的判断是 有条件支持红利防御：在 55.00% 高股息底仓下，如果去杠杆冲击仍主要落在 CPO/高贝塔科技，组合波动仍会下降；但若市场通过抛售长江电力式的高流动性...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-646c433c54eb", "title": "中国宏观研究记录 — 2026-06-13：5月再通胀还不是需求复苏", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-646c433c54eb/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日 2026-06-13 （Asia/Singapore），本报告选择 china-macro，核心问题是： 中国5月数据是否足以支持更顺周期的A股宏观判断，还是主要体现成本推动与出口链再通胀？", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-d5cd64ed34fa", "title": "AI算力能源瓶颈压力测试 - 2026-06-13", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d5cd64ed34fa/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-06-13（Asia/Singapore） 分析师：能源行业分析师 研究记录 立场：stress-test 问题：电网侧容量限制与电力供应波动是否会成为制约液冷设备大规模放量的核心瓶颈？", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-6dc56314a34a", "title": "能源侧供给韧性与 AI 电力窗口期压力测试 - 2026-06-13", "date": "2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6dc56314a34a/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至 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Activation: 8/148 (5.4%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered nam...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "工业制造分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "产业链调研：生命健康和生物科技（30 日激活率 5.7%, 10/174）", "question": "Investigate the 生命健康和生物科技 industry chain. Activation: 10/174 (5.7%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names w...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "生物科技分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "产业链调研：食品加工产业链（30 日激活率 6.6%, 16/242）", "question": "Investigate the 食品加工产业链 industry chain. Activation: 16/242 (6.6%) over last 30d — under-researched. 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"科技去杠杆后的红利防御是否失效", "question": "在两融折算率从 0.6 降至 0.4、966亿元保证金缺口和 116亿-193亿元强平情景下，55.00%高股息红利底仓是否仍降低组合风险，还是长江电力式红利拥挤会把风险从 CPO...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "A股策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "贸易顺差收缩与深幅利差倒挂下出口商-1737bp结汇负结转的避险套保困境", "question": "在美欧地缘关税壁垒导致出口增速降至+1.5% YoY、贸易顺差收缩及USD/CNY贬值至6.90-6.95的趋势中，出口商面临的-2.56%锁汇负结转成本是否将导致企业大范围放弃远...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "外汇策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "预测市场是否正在重估博彩平台的总可触达市场", "question": "DKNG的Predictions数据和零售情绪暴增，是否意味着博彩平台获得全国化交易入口，还是只是世界杯前的高beta叙事交易？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "主题研究员", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "沃什履新美联储主席后的首次FOMC（2026年6月16-17日）与供给侧能源冲击下的滞胀困局", "question": "在整体CPI达4.2%、但核心仅2.9%且涨价主因是霍尔木兹海峡能源冲击的背景下，沃什的首次FOMC会把美联储推到'鹰派按兵不动'还是真正加息？市场应如何定价这一政策...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 3, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" } ], "thesisEvents": [ { "id": "thesis-3156277f22", "title": "哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3156277f22/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 2, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "全球宏观研究：USD/CNH 波动率与套利交易展望", "summary": "全球宏观研究：USD/CNH 波动率与套利交易展望 日期： 2026-06-13 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 主题： 创纪录贸易顺差与通胀动态对 USD/CNH 及套利交易吸引力的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c449a444bdb/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "全球宏观研究：USD/CNH 远期期权偏度重定价与流动性压力测试", "summary": "全球宏观研究：USD/CNH 远期期权偏度重定价与流动性压力测试 日期： 2026-06-13 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 主题： CNH 远期期权偏度重定价对对冲成本与跨期套利流动性的传导效应", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3f8367c7424b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "压力测试：利差倒挂能否击穿 USD/CNH 6.65–6.75 支撑区间？", "summary": "压力测试：利差倒挂能否击穿 USD/CNH 6.65–6.75 支撑区间？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2ec6f5405eac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "全球宏观研究：现货中枢上移下的 USD/CNH 隐含波动率", "summary": "日期：2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡 研究院工作日） - 分析师：全球宏观分析师 - 研究记录 — 立场： 支持 （延展 既有研究记录的\"6.75 是枢轴而非墙\"） - 当前问题：6.75 由支撑转为阻力后...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7bba109a1cdb/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0", "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层", "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 2, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "DeepSeek V4 效率 vs NVIDIA 护城河", "summary": "分析师 : 主题研究员 (AI / 量子 / 生物科技 / 太空经济 / Web3) - 工作日期 : 2026-06-13 (新加坡时间) - 立场 : 初始框定 - 议题 : DeepSeek V4 的算法优化是否预示着算力暴力美...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a8bf74aa25f2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "压力测试：'红皇后竞速'下自研ASIC经济性还能扛住吗？", "summary": "分析日期：2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡，研究院权威工作日期） - 分析师：半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） - — - 研究立场： stress-test （对prior research notesTMT结论的压力测试—...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4481b86a28d7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "硬件成本与能源冲击下的下游云厂商盈利能力：推理算法优化与自研芯片护城河的定量压力测试", "summary": "硬件成本与能源冲击下的下游云厂商盈利能力：推理算法优化与自研芯片护城河的定量压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6d68a8b58a0b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-13 AI基础设施研究记录：Capex结构从GPU订单转向已通电MW", "summary": "2026-06-13 AI基础设施研究记录：Capex结构从GPU订单转向已通电MW", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fdf49d39a08e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "TSM", "AVGO", "AAPL", "TSLA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8b8ede3135", "title": "消费降级、健康刚需与银发经济正在重塑防御型增长", "titleEn": "Consumer downgrade, healthcare necessities, and the silver economy are reshaping defensive growth", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8b8ede3135/", "laneId": "lane_8cf8740aac77", "lane": "消费降级/健康银发", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/consumer-downgrade-health-and-silver-economy/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 1, "risks": 5, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "A股食品加工板块估值分化驱动力与市场定价效率研究", "summary": "A股食品加工板块估值分化驱动力与市场定价效率研究 日期 / Date: 2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-75b59a401797/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "研究记录 03 ｜消费政策与收入预期对功能性食品与预制菜溢价承接能力的评估", "summary": "研究记录 03 ｜消费政策与收入预期对功能性食品与预制菜溢价承接能力的评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5150f5e470b5/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "白酒及大消费板块在\"消费防御杠铃组合\"中的韧性贡献——压力测试", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-13（Asia/Singapore） - 分析师：消费行业分析师（consumer-analyst） - 立场：stress-test（压力测试研究记录 提出的 50% 高股息家电 + 30% 食品加工 + 20% 白酒杠铃组合）...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-adb61f6075ec/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "支付数据视角下的渠道隔离度验证：功能性食品与预制菜的消费特征研究", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-13（Asia/Singapore） - 研究记录 - 分析师：市场情绪师（altdata 视角补位） - 立场：support（支持 既有研究记录的\"渠道隔离假说\"）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8539cdb3e05c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600519.SH", "3690.HK", "001215.SZ", "600276.SH", "300760.SZ", "1801.HK", "1177.HK", "2319.HK", "UNH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-cb2ab35c55", "title": "AI 基础设施扩张从规模驱动切换到 TCO、能效和利用率筛选", "titleEn": "AI infrastructure expansion is shifting from scale to TCO, power efficiency, and utilization screening", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-cb2ab35c55/", "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87", "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 58, "supports": 1, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录 03 研究报告，2026-06-13：CoWoS/HBM 供给扩张与 NVIDIA 计算-网络溢价", "summary": "研究记录 03 研究报告，2026-06-13：CoWoS/HBM 供给扩张与 NVIDIA 计算-网络溢价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d49919d24c0a/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "压力测试：'红皇后竞速'下自研ASIC经济性还能扛住吗？", "summary": "分析日期：2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡，研究院权威工作日期） - 分析师：半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） - — - 研究立场： stress-test （对prior research notesTMT结论的压力测试—...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4481b86a28d7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "半导体供应链摩擦与 AI 算力 TCO 底座：超大规模基础设施生命周期压力测试", "summary": "半导体供应链摩擦与 AI 算力 TCO 底座：超大规模基础设施生命周期压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c117318ea9b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-13 — 既有研究记录：AI芯片设计正从峰值算力密度转向能效比约束", "summary": "2026-06-13 — 既有研究记录：AI芯片设计正从峰值算力密度转向能效比约束", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a2965b04a132/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "META", "MU", "MSFT", "AVGO", "VRT", "000660.KS", "DELL" ] }, { "id": "thesis-08dd090dc9", "title": "公用事业从防御红利切换到电网扩容、容量费与信用再定价", "titleEn": "Utilities are shifting from defensive dividends to grid expansion, capacity fees, and credit repricing", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08dd090dc9/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 3, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "上游能源、绿电并网与长江电力分红韧性压力测试", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-13 [S0] 分析师： 能源行业分析师（ID: energy-analyst） 立场： stress-test 问题： 随着煤/气价格波动及绿电并网压力增加，电力市场化交易电价的下行风险是否会突破长江电...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5004002bd46a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电网约束与AI能源溢价下，绿电公用事业企业（水电与核电）的红利稳定性与资本开支压力测试", "summary": "电网约束与AI能源溢价下，绿电公用事业企业（水电与核电）的红利稳定性与资本开支压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1f91a4ae43d8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "中国\"电网交付溢价\"能否变成宏观主线？——对既有研究记录的综合化", "summary": "analyst: global-macro / 全球宏观分析师 stance: synthesize work date: 2026-06-13 (Asia/Singapore) topic: 中国电网/特高压与电力设备优势能否转化为AI竞赛中的可持续宏观增长驱动力与A股投...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7166c908bea9/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "AI基础设施超级周期下的中美公用事业配置权重与跨国套利策略优化", "summary": "既有研究记录— AI基础设施超级周期下的中美公用事业配置权重与跨国套利策略优化", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-be4dda84a3c9/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "AEP", "600900.SH", "CEG", "DUK", "VST", "XLU", "META", "NEE", "SMR", "GEV" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d1f5e35b43", "title": "2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d1f5e35b43/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 2, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录 03 研究报告，2026-06-13：CoWoS/HBM 供给扩张与 NVIDIA 计算-网络溢价", "summary": "研究记录 03 研究报告，2026-06-13：CoWoS/HBM 供给扩张与 NVIDIA 计算-网络溢价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d49919d24c0a/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "压力测试：'红皇后竞速'下自研ASIC经济性还能扛住吗？", "summary": "分析日期：2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡，研究院权威工作日期） - 分析师：半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） - — - 研究立场： stress-test （对prior research notesTMT结论的压力测试—...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4481b86a28d7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "DeepSeek V4 效率 vs NVIDIA 护城河", "summary": "分析师 : 主题研究员 (AI / 量子 / 生物科技 / 太空经济 / Web3) - 工作日期 : 2026-06-13 (新加坡时间) - 立场 : 初始框定 - 议题 : DeepSeek V4 的算法优化是否预示着算力暴力美...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a8bf74aa25f2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f3989d02c5", "title": "全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f3989d02c5/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "AI 算力基础设施资本开支压力测试：能源价格韧性 vs. 电网并网瓶颈", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-06-13 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师 ( ai-infrastructure-analyst ) 立场： 压力测试（Stress-Test）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d524b24e346f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI算力基础设施与能源瓶颈：国产半导体替代能否突破智算中心扩容的电力与电网限制？", "summary": "AI算力基础设施与能源瓶颈：国产半导体替代能否突破智算中心扩容的电力与电网限制？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-21fad2b41d2d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "算力西迁下中西部电网韧性压力测试，2026-06-13", "summary": "既有研究记录— 算力西迁下中西部电网韧性压力测试，2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-38e67406bb36/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "META", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-025e4c0d2d", "title": "复合材料业务修复向利润增长传导", "titleEn": "Composite-Materials Recovery Transmits into Earnings Growth", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-025e4c0d2d/", "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80", "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "特高压、主变压器与电网侧储能的订单兑现节奏与A股龙头盈利弹性", "summary": "特高压、主变压器与电网侧储能的订单兑现节奏与A股龙头盈利弹性 日期：2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cac4b0eea00d/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "电力接入瓶颈下A股AI基础设施链条的再定价", "summary": "电力接入瓶颈下A股AI基础设施链条的再定价 · 首席策略师 · 立场：综合（Synthesize） · 工作日期：2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3a6a8e79f9f3/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI算力需求下的电力供应压力与能源转型分析", "summary": "既有研究记录— AI算力需求下的电力供应压力与能源转型分析", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fd418feb7d0a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300274.SZ", "002028.SZ", "300750.SZ", "002080.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7f0a75c5f6", "title": "数据中心地产、液冷与水资源正在决定 AI 容量的区域迁移", "titleEn": "Data-center real estate, liquid cooling, and water resources are deciding regional migration of AI capacity", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7f0a75c5f6/", "laneId": "lane_0679894fe06b", "lane": "数据中心地产/液冷", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/data-center-real-estate-and-cooling/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-13 工业供给压力测试：GB200 级机柜所需电气设备与液冷能力", "summary": "2026-06-13 工业供给压力测试：GB200 级机柜所需电气设备与液冷能力", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0759e8f1e72d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI基础设施成本重塑：电力现货溢价对算力中心CAPEX与扩容逻辑的约束", "summary": "分析师：AI基础设施分析师 - 日期：2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 立场：stress-test（压力测试） - - 承接：研究记录01（公用事业）、研究记录02（AI基础设施）、研究记录03（能源...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b3c738688e07/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-13 策略卡：AI并网延迟、GOES变压器与绿色基荷重定价", "summary": "2026-06-13 策略卡：AI并网延迟、GOES变压器与绿色基荷重定价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-05fd57aeeee7/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "VRT", "ETN", "META", "NVDA", "GEV", "MSFT", "DLR", "EQIX", "SMR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b6e4c7b469", "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b6e4c7b469/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI电力需求与电网扩容瓶颈：配电侧容量与变压器产能对算力部署的制约", "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师： 公用事业分析师（utilities-analyst）· 立场： 支持（SUPPORT，延伸研究记录04） - 工作日期： 2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 任务： 评估电网侧扩容周期、特高压建设进度...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2c3381b991f8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "研究报告：推理算力扩张与电力电网瓶颈压力", "summary": "研究报告：推理算力扩张与电力电网瓶颈压力 分析师： AI基础设施分析师 (agy) 日期： 2026年6月13日 主题： 电力供应与电网容量能否匹配推理/Agent化带来的 Jevons 效应增长？ 立场： 压力测试...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ecbb549bfcd4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f62e29bf1c", "title": "在SpaceX将于6月12日进行股权交易且美债高企下，太空经济是否已告别散户概念炒作，转向由SpaceX价格伞、国防合同与垂直整合总装定…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在SpaceX将于6月12日进行股权交易且美债高企下，太空经济是否已告别散户概念炒作，转向由SpaceX价格伞、国防合同与垂直整合总装定…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f62e29bf1c/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "商业航天发射赋能链组件标的的A股筹码结构与流动性风险评估", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-13（Asia/Singapore） - 研究记录｜立场：stress-test｜分析师：首席策略师（chief-strategist） - 上游：既有研究记录建议70%超配发射赋能链（液体发动机及材料25%...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-975c4f8c1113/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "SpaceX IPO、Web3风险预算与太空经济篮子 — 工作日 2026-06-13", "summary": "SpaceX IPO、Web3风险预算与太空经济篮子 — 工作日 2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-85b9d5c9f8a7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600118.SH", "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "300762.SZ", "LUNR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2e367ef854", "title": "美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2e367ef854/", "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08", "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-13 - 全球宏观开场卡：美国能源通胀与6月FOMC", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-13，Asia/Singapore。本报告由 global-macro 撰写，研究问题是：在5月通胀数据和最新就业报告之后，2026年6月16-17日FOMC应继续把能源冲击视为可穿越的短期噪音，还是应将其...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-98a94f9290f5/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-06-14 全球宏观启动卡：能源通胀把6月FOMC变成“鹰派按兵不动”测试", "summary": "2026-06-14 全球宏观启动卡：能源通胀把6月FOMC变成“鹰派按兵不动”测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d595205f4e56/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "XLE", "XLU", "TLT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-cf6925b02f", "title": "232/301双轨壁垒近端收紧回路、延长轨道时间溢价至2028–2029，但通过抬高美国电气化成本加速AI资本开支ROI清算——约束正从…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 232/301双轨壁垒近端收紧回路、延长轨道时间溢价至2028–2029，但通过抬高美国电气化成本加速AI资本开支ROI清算——约束正从…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-cf6925b02f/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI电力需求与电网扩容瓶颈：配电侧容量与变压器产能对算力部署的制约", "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师： 公用事业分析师（utilities-analyst）· 立场： 支持（SUPPORT，延伸研究记录04） - 工作日期： 2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 任务： 评估电网侧扩容周期、特高压建设进度...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2c3381b991f8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "专题研究报告：从“算力”到“电力”的资本陷阱：电网设备供应链瓶颈下的 AI 硬件部署滞后与资产减...", "summary": "专题研究报告：从“算力”到“电力”的资本陷阱：电网设备供应链瓶颈下的 AI 硬件部署滞后与资产减值压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8247a56683ec/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "GEV", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "ETN", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-54a65a88ba", "title": "请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-54a65a88ba/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试：利差倒挂能否击穿 USD/CNH 6.65–6.75 支撑区间？", "summary": "压力测试：利差倒挂能否击穿 USD/CNH 6.65–6.75 支撑区间？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2ec6f5405eac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "全球宏观研究：USD/CNH 波动率与套利交易展望", "summary": "全球宏观研究：USD/CNH 波动率与套利交易展望 日期： 2026-06-13 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 主题： 创纪录贸易顺差与通胀动态对 USD/CNH 及套利交易吸引力的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c449a444bdb/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "UUP", "FXI", "2800.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d98ced0974", "title": "电力瓶颈会重排AI算力项目顺序，但不会让2025-2026年全球AI集群建设同步停摆。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力瓶颈会重排AI算力项目顺序，但不会让2025-2026年全球AI集群建设同步停摆。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d98ced0974/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI电力需求与电网扩容瓶颈：配电侧容量与变压器产能对算力部署的制约", "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师： 公用事业分析师（utilities-analyst）· 立场： 支持（SUPPORT，延伸研究记录04） - 工作日期： 2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 任务： 评估电网侧扩容周期、特高压建设进度...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2c3381b991f8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "专题研究报告：从“算力”到“电力”的资本陷阱：电网设备供应链瓶颈下的 AI 硬件部署滞后与资产减...", "summary": "专题研究报告：从“算力”到“电力”的资本陷阱：电网设备供应链瓶颈下的 AI 硬件部署滞后与资产减值压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8247a56683ec/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "601179.SH", "ETN", "600089.SH", "VST", "CEG" ] }, { "id": "thesis-da665e3ee7", "title": "在2026-06-26，中国约1.73%的国债收益率托底机制在Warsh强美元政策与三季度2-5万亿地方债/国债供给冲击下不可持续，国债…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-26，中国约1.73%的国债收益率托底机制在Warsh强美元政策与三季度2-5万亿地方债/国债供给冲击下不可持续，国债…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-da665e3ee7/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "全球宏观研究：USD/CNH 远期期权偏度重定价与流动性压力测试", "summary": "全球宏观研究：USD/CNH 远期期权偏度重定价与流动性压力测试 日期： 2026-06-13 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 主题： CNH 远期期权偏度重定价对对冲成本与跨期套利流动性的传导效应", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3f8367c7424b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "全球宏观研究：USD/CNH 波动率与套利交易展望", "summary": "全球宏观研究：USD/CNH 波动率与套利交易展望 日期： 2026-06-13 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 主题： 创纪录贸易顺差与通胀动态对 USD/CNH 及套利交易吸引力的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c449a444bdb/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c71e511c1c", "title": "电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c71e511c1c/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "半导体能效跃迁对AI算力中心电力成本约束的对冲能力评估", "summary": "分析师： 半导体行业分析师 (Semiconductors Analyst) 发布日期： 2026-06-13 研究研究记录位置： report.zh.md 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test) — 评估先进封装与新架构（Blackwell / Rubin 世...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fd772716a5be/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-13 — 既有研究记录：AI芯片设计正从峰值算力密度转向能效比约束", "summary": "2026-06-13 — 既有研究记录：AI芯片设计正从峰值算力密度转向能效比约束", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a2965b04a132/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "PWR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4749f7193b", "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4749f7193b/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "专题研究报告：从“算力”到“电力”的资本陷阱：电网设备供应链瓶颈下的 AI 硬件部署滞后与资产减...", "summary": "专题研究报告：从“算力”到“电力”的资本陷阱：电网设备供应链瓶颈下的 AI 硬件部署滞后与资产减值压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8247a56683ec/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI电力需求与电网扩容瓶颈：配电侧容量与变压器产能对算力部署的制约", "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师： 公用事业分析师（utilities-analyst）· 立场： 支持（SUPPORT，延伸研究记录04） - 工作日期： 2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 任务： 评估电网侧扩容周期、特高压建设进度...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2c3381b991f8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "601985.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b37a11e5a3", "title": "FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b37a11e5a3/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "半导体能效跃迁对AI算力中心电力成本约束的对冲能力评估", "summary": "分析师： 半导体行业分析师 (Semiconductors Analyst) 发布日期： 2026-06-13 研究研究记录位置： report.zh.md 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test) — 评估先进封装与新架构（Blackwell / Rubin 世...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fd772716a5be/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-13 — 既有研究记录：AI芯片设计正从峰值算力密度转向能效比约束", "summary": "2026-06-13 — 既有研究记录：AI芯片设计正从峰值算力密度转向能效比约束", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a2965b04a132/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8bbbcdf5a4", "title": "GPU、HBM 与先进封装决定 AI 资本开支供给节奏", "titleEn": "GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging shape the AI capex supply cycle", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8bbbcdf5a4/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录 03 研究报告，2026-06-13：CoWoS/HBM 供给扩张与 NVIDIA 计算-网络溢价", "summary": "研究记录 03 研究报告，2026-06-13：CoWoS/HBM 供给扩张与 NVIDIA 计算-网络溢价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d49919d24c0a/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "半导体供应链摩擦与 AI 算力 TCO 底座：超大规模基础设施生命周期压力测试", "summary": "半导体供应链摩擦与 AI 算力 TCO 底座：超大规模基础设施生命周期压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c117318ea9b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "META", "AMD", "AVGO", "MU", "MSFT", "000660.KS", "GOOGL", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-100e81e234", "title": "AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-100e81e234/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "半导体能效跃迁对AI算力中心电力成本约束的对冲能力评估", "summary": "分析师： 半导体行业分析师 (Semiconductors Analyst) 发布日期： 2026-06-13 研究研究记录位置： report.zh.md 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test) — 评估先进封装与新架构（Blackwell / Rubin 世...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fd772716a5be/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI算力基础设施与能源瓶颈：国产半导体替代能否突破智算中心扩容的电力与电网限制？", "summary": "AI算力基础设施与能源瓶颈：国产半导体替代能否突破智算中心扩容的电力与电网限制？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-21fad2b41d2d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-89c14497ac", "title": "期权伽马、ETF 与尾盘流动性正在放大主题交易的微观结构风险", "titleEn": "Options gamma, ETFs, and closing liquidity are amplifying microstructure risk in theme trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-89c14497ac/", "laneId": "lane_2ba2ee6db1ee", "lane": "期权伽马/市场微观结构", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/options-gamma-and-market-microstructure/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "评估科创50ETF与沪深300认沽期权组合的Delta-Vega风险敞口及滚动对冲方案", "summary": "评估科创50ETF与沪深300认沽期权组合的Delta-Vega风险敞口及滚动对冲方案", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-acb4ad78a9b4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "破坏性评估：科创50极端回撤中做市商负Gamma反馈循环风险", "summary": "日期： 2026-06-13 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 (agy) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6231cd0dfc7d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CBOE", "CME", "HOOD", "IBKR", "VIRT", "VIXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a6599a3f5", "title": "新一代信息技术国产替代要从信创叙事进入算力、软件与安全订单验证", "titleEn": "Domestic IT substitution must move from policy narrative to compute, software, and security order proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a6599a3f5/", "laneId": "lane_e4f90acbf804", "lane": "信创/国产 IT 栈", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/domestic-it-substitution-stack/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "美国跨行业限制架构对中国半导体国产替代贝塔的投资映射", "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师：半导体分析师 (semiconductors-analyst) - 立场：synthesize（综合） - 工作日：2026-06-13（Asia/Singapore） - 前序研究结论锚点：研究记录 判定美国限制已收敛为\"点名清...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e427f4278f31/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "既有研究记录· “训推分流”下东西部智算硬件架构需求重构", "summary": "既有研究记录· “训推分流”下东西部智算硬件架构需求重构", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-82f7406d27f2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "300308.SZ", "NVDA", "000977.SZ", "688008.SH", "688012.SH", "688111.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f5d7a79c82", "title": "HBM4、CoWoS 与背面供电正在成为 AI 服务器需求曲线的串行闸门", "titleEn": "HBM4, CoWoS, and backside power are becoming serial gates for the AI-server demand curve", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5d7a79c82/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录 03 研究报告，2026-06-13：CoWoS/HBM 供给扩张与 NVIDIA 计算-网络溢价", "summary": "研究记录 03 研究报告，2026-06-13：CoWoS/HBM 供给扩张与 NVIDIA 计算-网络溢价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d49919d24c0a/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "压力测试：'红皇后竞速'下自研ASIC经济性还能扛住吗？", "summary": "分析日期：2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡，研究院权威工作日期） - 分析师：半导体分析师（ semiconductors-analyst ） - — - 研究立场： stress-test （对prior research notesTMT结论的压力测试—...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4481b86a28d7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "000660.KS", "MU", "AMD", "META", "AVGO", "MSFT", "AMZN", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9d3836cc07", "title": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "titleEn": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d3836cc07/", "laneId": "lane_008e3bd9306a", "lane": "AI 软件效率/生产率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-software-productivity/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 58, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "DeepSeek V4 效率 vs NVIDIA 护城河", "summary": "分析师 : 主题研究员 (AI / 量子 / 生物科技 / 太空经济 / Web3) - 工作日期 : 2026-06-13 (新加坡时间) - 立场 : 初始框定 - 议题 : DeepSeek V4 的算法优化是否预示着算力暴力美...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a8bf74aa25f2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "研究记录06 研究报告，2026-06-13：从\"已通电算力\"瓶颈到组合构建——区分长期受益的 AI 基础设施...", "summary": "研究记录06 研究报告，2026-06-13：从\"已通电算力\"瓶颈到组合构建——区分长期受益的 AI 基础设施龙头与交易过度拥挤的资本开支受益股", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5c1a6cff4594/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "NVDA", "NOW", "CRM", "ADBE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-44cf9d91f6", "title": "中国大健康 Alpha 正从医保压价转向创新药出海、临床确定性与设备刚需", "titleEn": "China healthcare alpha is moving from reimbursement pressure to overseas licensing, clinical certainty, and equipment...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-44cf9d91f6/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 57, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "大健康产业链调研：政策与业绩拐点下的行业覆盖激活与核心Alpha标的推荐", "summary": "大健康产业链调研：政策与业绩拐点下的行业覆盖激活与核心Alpha标的推荐", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a9777cc9f87a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股/港股创新药板块现金流与估值重估：严格BD条款与里程碑后置下的尾部出清与整合潮", "summary": "A股/港股创新药板块现金流与估值重估：严格BD条款与里程碑后置下的尾部出清与整合潮", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9324e3eb017d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "2359.HK", "600276.SH", "1801.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "6990.HK", "300760.SZ", "603259.SH", "1177.HK", "002821.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-66eb42380e", "title": "海洋经济的政策催化需要落到船舶订单、海工装备与海上资源现金流", "titleEn": "Marine-economy policy support must convert into ship orders, offshore equipment, and offshore-resource cash flow", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-66eb42380e/", "laneId": "lane_f8b4918fe5b3", "lane": "海洋经济/船舶海工", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/marine-economy-shipbuilding-and-offshore-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试：海洋经济装备链中的海上风电一环 — 2026-06-13", "summary": "能源行业分析师 立场：压力测试 成稿日期 2026-06-13（Asia/Singapore）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e6596173d39b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "新华财经海洋经济产业链扫描 — 2026-06-13", "summary": "截至 2026-06-13（Asia/Singapore），我支持启动新华财经海洋经济产业链研究，但不建议把它当作宽基主题篮子处理。研究诊断显示，过去 30 日仅 8/148 个标的被激活，激活率 5.4% [来源不明]，说...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f2f977d4b9f5/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601890.SH", "600150.SH", "600938.SH", "600583.SH", "603727.SH", "000039.SZ", "0883.HK", "300589.SZ", "601919.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-51c6d833ae", "title": "食品加工的机会从食品通胀切换到原料波动、渠道库存与 B 端标准化", "titleEn": "Food processing opportunities are shifting from food inflation to input volatility, channel inventory, and B-side sta...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-51c6d833ae/", "laneId": "lane_13d7ced85300", "lane": "食品加工/成本传导", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-processing-and-input-cost-transmission/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 50, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "食品加工产业链低覆盖机会扫描 — 工作日期 2026-06-13", "summary": "截至机构工作日期 2026-06-13，我支持把中国食品加工链纳入研究队列，但主线应当精选：食品与餐饮渠道需求仍有韧性，利润压力则在原料、品类和客户结构之间轮动。2026年1—4月，全国餐饮收入同...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1c910ffa8270/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "食品加工产业链调研：利润挤压与结构性转型的博弈 (2026年6月)", "summary": "一、 核心摘要 截至2026年6月13日，中国食品加工行业正处于一个矛盾的局面：上游畜牧业原材料价格通缩，而受地缘政治冲击驱动的能源和投入成本却在通胀 [S1]。尽管整个行业面临利润挤压（PPI 3...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9ec40ffac539/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "001215.SZ", "600298.SH", "300973.SZ", "603345.SH", "603027.SH", "002991.SZ", "603317.SH", "002847.SZ", "ADM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-026aa1679b", "title": "云厂商自发电正在把 AI 交付风险转移到核电、燃气、电网与公用事业信用", "titleEn": "Cloud self-generation is shifting AI delivery risk into nuclear, gas, grid assets, and utility credit", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-026aa1679b/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "全球 AI 算力与公用事业：PPA 模式演进、估值重塑与跨国套利比较", "summary": "全球 AI 算力与公用事业：PPA 模式演进、估值重塑与跨国套利比较 日期： 2026-06-13 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst) 主题： AI 数据中心核电/气电 PPA 模式对公用事业估值的重...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cd52f59b7633/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "AI基础设施超级周期下的中美公用事业配置权重与跨国套利策略优化", "summary": "既有研究记录— AI基础设施超级周期下的中美公用事业配置权重与跨国套利策略优化", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-be4dda84a3c9/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "VST", "CEG", "GEV", "SMR", "META", "ETN", "MSFT", "AMZN", "AEP", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-aa97a5c1b3", "title": "家装链的胜负手在存量房翻新、国补触达与地产后周期库存去化", "titleEn": "Home improvement depends on existing-home renovation, subsidy reach, and post-property inventory digestion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-aa97a5c1b3/", "laneId": "lane_1efa26c729b6", "lane": "家装/地产后周期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/home-improvement-and-post-property-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "全球宏观合成：地产竣工链下行与全球成本刚性夹击下的家装建材重估", "summary": "作者：全球宏观分析师 (global-macro) 权威工作日：2026-06-13（新加坡/北京时间） 当前课题：北新建材（000786.SZ）竣工与翻新压力测试及全球宏观传导合成 研究立场：合成（Synthesize）/ 统筹...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9547d66e1b58/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "家装产业链调研 — 既有研究记录", "summary": "工作日期: 2026-06-13 (Asia/Singapore) - 分析师: realestate-analyst (房地产分析师) - 立场: initial - 所属研究记录 - 根主题: 新华财经-家装产业链 (30 日激活率 7%, 14/201)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7bd9f06fdceb/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002572.SZ", "603833.SH", "603816.SH", "600690.SH", "LOW", "000333.SZ", "002043.SZ", "603801.SH", "002508.SZ", "001322.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4074d8a3d2", "title": "碳价、可再生能源与储能 CapEx 正在重塑电力资产回报", "titleEn": "Carbon pricing, renewables, and storage capex are reshaping power-asset returns", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4074d8a3d2/", "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80", "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 42, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI 电力瓶颈与权益资产配置策略调整 (2026–2028)", "summary": "分析日期： 2026-06-13 首席策略师研究报告 研究来源：已归档 研究记录序号： 07", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-693f4d4cf8a4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力接入瓶颈下A股AI基础设施链条的再定价", "summary": "电力接入瓶颈下A股AI基础设施链条的再定价 · 首席策略师 · 立场：综合（Synthesize） · 工作日期：2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3a6a8e79f9f3/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SMR", "002028.SZ", "GEV", "300750.SZ", "600900.SH", "MSFT", "CEG", "300274.SZ", "META", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-813fa71c15", "title": "科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-813fa71c15/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 84, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "破坏性评估：科创50极端回撤中做市商负Gamma反馈循环风险", "summary": "日期： 2026-06-13 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 (agy) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6231cd0dfc7d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688008.SH", "688041.SH", "688012.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9a926eda26", "title": "本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 本周sentiment与thematic一致把长江电力(600900.SH，5.5%股息、两融占比1.81%)当防御压舱石(themat…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a926eda26/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "上游能源、绿电并网与长江电力分红韧性压力测试", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-13 [S0] 分析师： 能源行业分析师（ID: energy-analyst） 立场： stress-test 问题： 随着煤/气价格波动及绿电并网压力增加，电力市场化交易电价的下行风险是否会突破长江电...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5004002bd46a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "600905.SH", "DUK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d09a741710", "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d09a741710/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "研究报告：铜与硅钢的“双杀” —— 电力设备厂商 1700 bps 毛利率回吐风险评估", "summary": "研究报告：铜与硅钢的“双杀” —— 电力设备厂商 1700 bps 毛利率回吐风险评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c3e05732ae13/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-24cd0b5ff9", "title": "在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-24cd0b5ff9/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI基础设施成本重塑：电力现货溢价对算力中心CAPEX与扩容逻辑的约束", "summary": "分析师：AI基础设施分析师 - 日期：2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 立场：stress-test（压力测试） - - 承接：研究记录01（公用事业）、研究记录02（AI基础设施）、研究记录03（能源...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b3c738688e07/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "GOOGL", "AMZN", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-08b70be7bf", "title": "在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08b70be7bf/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI电力需求与电网扩容瓶颈：配电侧容量与变压器产能对算力部署的制约", "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师： 公用事业分析师（utilities-analyst）· 立场： 支持（SUPPORT，延伸研究记录04） - 工作日期： 2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 任务： 评估电网侧扩容周期、特高压建设进度...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2c3381b991f8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b3e89f22e6", "title": "在极端关税与30%原料通胀的压力下，全球电网设备（利用率98%、美交期128周）的硬约束赋予A股厂商极强的定价权与贸易规避弹性，其出口高…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在极端关税与30%原料通胀的压力下，全球电网设备（利用率98%、美交期128周）的硬约束赋予A股厂商极强的定价权与贸易规避弹性，其出口高…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b3e89f22e6/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "去全球化下电网设备供应链地缘政治溢价与绿色通胀重定价", "summary": "分析师： Global Macro Analyst (全球宏观分析师) 工作日期： 2026-06-13 (Asia/Singapore) 立场： Stress-Test (压力测试) 研究记录", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-42ec5f0470ee/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "GEV", "688676.SH", "ETN", "000400.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e40b25962e", "title": "A股“大行+红利/稀缺成长”哑铃配置在低杠杆与高可视度Backlog支撑下并未拥挤，而弱区域中小银行因资产质量二阶传导滞后与重度稀释风险…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股“大行+红利/稀缺成长”哑铃配置在低杠杆与高可视度Backlog支撑下并未拥挤，而弱区域中小银行因资产质量二阶传导滞后与重度稀释风险…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e40b25962e/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "地产竣工链系统性下行背景下A股组合的板块轮动与红利防御配置", "summary": "作者：首席策略师 (chief-strategist) 权威工作日：2026-06-13（新加坡 / 北京时间） 当前课题：竣工链系统性下行背景下A股组合的板块轮动与红利防御配置 研究立场：合成（Synthesize）—— 将8...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eb81e7297182/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601398.SH", "601088.SH", "600941.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7930de9cdc", "title": "沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7930de9cdc/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-15 全球外汇研究记录：鹰派美联储定价、套利交易重构与 USD/CNY 压力", "summary": "2026-06-15 全球外汇研究记录：鹰派美联储定价、套利交易重构与 USD/CNY 压力", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-36d72d8dce2f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-57faae4252", "title": "能源供应约束对AI基础设施资本开支效率的影响：电力缺口能否支撑超大规模厂商的扩容预期？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源供应约束对AI基础设施资本开支效率的影响：电力缺口能否支撑超大规模厂商的扩容预期？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-57faae4252/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI电力需求与电网扩容瓶颈：配电侧容量与变压器产能对算力部署的制约", "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师： 公用事业分析师（utilities-analyst）· 立场： 支持（SUPPORT，延伸研究记录04） - 工作日期： 2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 任务： 评估电网侧扩容周期、特高压建设进度...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2c3381b991f8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-db4939d8d8", "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db4939d8d8/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球 AI 算力与公用事业：PPA 模式演进、估值重塑与跨国套利比较", "summary": "全球 AI 算力与公用事业：PPA 模式演进、估值重塑与跨国套利比较 日期： 2026-06-13 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst) 主题： AI 数据中心核电/气电 PPA 模式对公用事业估值的重...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cd52f59b7633/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "CEG", "VST", "ETN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a2fc614c1", "title": "在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a2fc614c1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "半导体供应链摩擦与 AI 算力 TCO 底座：超大规模基础设施生命周期压力测试", "summary": "半导体供应链摩擦与 AI 算力 TCO 底座：超大规模基础设施生命周期压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c117318ea9b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "GEV", "ETN", "CEG", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a7f43e67af", "title": "在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a7f43e67af/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-13 - 全球宏观开场卡：美国能源通胀与6月FOMC", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-13，Asia/Singapore。本报告由 global-macro 撰写，研究问题是：在5月通胀数据和最新就业报告之后，2026年6月16-17日FOMC应继续把能源冲击视为可穿越的短期噪音，还是应将其...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-98a94f9290f5/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-94e0c46a69", "title": "USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/CNH 7.25当前不是银行外汇管道的硬边界，上一张卡片高估了离岸人民币挤压成本，真正需要监测的是券商两融和权益杠杆反馈链。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-94e0c46a69/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球宏观研究：USD/CNH 远期期权偏度重定价与流动性压力测试", "summary": "全球宏观研究：USD/CNH 远期期权偏度重定价与流动性压力测试 日期： 2026-06-13 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 主题： CNH 远期期权偏度重定价对对冲成本与跨期套利流动性的传导效应", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3f8367c7424b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-662985737d", "title": "在12% HIBOR极端挤空及离岸流动性收紧传导下，将USD/CNH期权套保释放的5374万人民币全额转配至离岸存款以锁定12%高息Ca…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在12% HIBOR极端挤空及离岸流动性收紧传导下，将USD/CNH期权套保释放的5374万人民币全额转配至离岸存款以锁定12%高息Ca…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-662985737d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球宏观研究：USD/CNH 远期期权偏度重定价与流动性压力测试", "summary": "全球宏观研究：USD/CNH 远期期权偏度重定价与流动性压力测试 日期： 2026-06-13 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 主题： CNH 远期期权偏度重定价对对冲成本与跨期套利流动性的传导效应", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3f8367c7424b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-820459973e", "title": "在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-820459973e/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "特高压、主变压器与电网侧储能的订单兑现节奏与A股龙头盈利弹性", "summary": "特高压、主变压器与电网侧储能的订单兑现节奏与A股龙头盈利弹性 日期：2026-06-13", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cac4b0eea00d/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "601179.SH", "600089.SH", "CEG", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2a7c29557b", "title": "在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2a7c29557b/", "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87", "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI基础设施成本重塑：电力现货溢价对算力中心CAPEX与扩容逻辑的约束", "summary": "分析师：AI基础设施分析师 - 日期：2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 立场：stress-test（压力测试） - - 承接：研究记录01（公用事业）、研究记录02（AI基础设施）、研究记录03（能源...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b3c738688e07/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "VRT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d0faeae7f0", "title": "NAND价格与产品组合驱动SanDisk盈利弹性", "titleEn": "NAND pricing and mix drive SanDisk earnings leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d0faeae7f0/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 72, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI基建挤出效应下半导体利润率压力测试", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-13（Asia/Singapore，研究院权威工作日期） 研究线程标识： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录索引： 4/10 分析师： 半导体分析师（ID: semiconductors-analyst）...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3d0730c8c031/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS", "META", "AMD" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b976d8330e", "title": "NAND盈利弹性由价格与产品结构主导，而非单纯出货增长", "titleEn": "NAND earnings leverage is driven by pricing and mix rather than shipment growth alone", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b976d8330e/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI基建挤出效应下半导体利润率压力测试", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-13（Asia/Singapore，研究院权威工作日期） 研究线程标识： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录索引： 4/10 分析师： 半导体分析师（ID: semiconductors-analyst）...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3d0730c8c031/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "META", "MU", "000660.KS", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d614778e40", "title": "CAR-T商业化取决于进院、支付与订单转化", "titleEn": "CAR-T commercialization depends on hospital access, reimbursement, and order conversion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d614778e40/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股/港股创新药板块现金流与估值重估：严格BD条款与里程碑后置下的尾部出清与整合潮", "summary": "A股/港股创新药板块现金流与估值重估：严格BD条款与里程碑后置下的尾部出清与整合潮", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9324e3eb017d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "1801.HK", "600276.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "603259.SH", "1177.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9d1baaec59", "title": "CAR-T商业化取决于进院、支付覆盖与患者转化", "titleEn": "CAR-T commercialization depends on hospital access, reimbursement and patient conversion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d1baaec59/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股/港股创新药板块现金流与估值重估：严格BD条款与里程碑后置下的尾部出清与整合潮", "summary": "A股/港股创新药板块现金流与估值重估：严格BD条款与里程碑后置下的尾部出清与整合潮", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9324e3eb017d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "1801.HK", "600276.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "603259.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0a0d09421e", "title": "AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0a0d09421e/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI 基础设施报告，2026-06-13：电力设备风险正在延后 AI 算力通电容量，但尚未触发头部云厂商总 ca...", "summary": "AI 基础设施报告，2026-06-13：电力设备风险正在延后 AI 算力通电容量，但尚未触发头部云厂商总 capex 下修", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ac4f52047dc5/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0346c87b0c", "title": "当前AI算力扩容的主瓶颈是电力和电网交付第一、芯片第二；没有已通电MW背书的纸面算力应被折价。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当前AI算力扩容的主瓶颈是电力和电网交付第一、芯片第二；没有已通电MW背书的纸面算力应被折价。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0346c87b0c/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "专题研究报告：从“算力”到“电力”的资本陷阱：电网设备供应链瓶颈下的 AI 硬件部署滞后与资产减...", "summary": "专题研究报告：从“算力”到“电力”的资本陷阱：电网设备供应链瓶颈下的 AI 硬件部署滞后与资产减值压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8247a56683ec/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "CEG", "VST", "601985.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-31f32af77b", "title": "中国云与国产算力栈的关键不是模型热度，而是训练/推理订单、服务器交付和生态锁定", "titleEn": "China cloud and local compute stacks depend less on model hype than training/inference orders, server delivery, and e...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-31f32af77b/", "laneId": "lane_2997650d0638", "lane": "中国云/国产算力栈", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-cloud-and-local-compute-stack/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "既有研究记录· “训推分流”下东西部智算硬件架构需求重构", "summary": "既有研究记录· “训推分流”下东西部智算硬件架构需求重构", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-82f7406d27f2/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "300308.SZ", "601138.SH", "0981.HK", "688981.SH", "000977.SZ", "9988.HK", "NVDA", "0700.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a3cb9196a0", "title": "随着AI算力扩建撞上电力电网并网物理速度墙，变压器与硅钢（GOES）结构性缺口高达30%，投产延迟WACC损失巨大，形成约35倍的经济杠…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 随着AI算力扩建撞上电力电网并网物理速度墙，变压器与硅钢（GOES）结构性缺口高达30%，投产延迟WACC损失巨大，形成约35倍的经济杠…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a3cb9196a0/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI电力需求与电网扩容瓶颈：配电侧容量与变压器产能对算力部署的制约", "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师： 公用事业分析师（utilities-analyst）· 立场： 支持（SUPPORT，延伸研究记录04） - 工作日期： 2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 任务： 评估电网侧扩容周期、特高压建设进度...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2c3381b991f8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "601179.SH", "600089.SH", "688676.SH", "CEG" ] }, { "id": "thesis-df608ec2a1", "title": "AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-df608ec2a1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股电力设备及电网板块两融拥挤度与流动性压力测试", "summary": "作者：A股策略师（ashare-strategist） - 日期：2026-06-13（Asia/Singapore） - 立场：stress-test（对研究记录07巴贝尔组合中A股一侧的杠杆稳定性进行压力测试） - 核心标的：002028.SZ 思源...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4db4ea07364e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "GEV", "600089.SH", "ETN", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c2eb2a0b9d", "title": "AI 租赁营收的兑现并非取决于芯片购买量，而是取决于长达 2-4 年的电力交付周期，物理稀缺性正成为限制营收增速的硬顶。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI 租赁营收的兑现并非取决于芯片购买量，而是取决于长达 2-4 年的电力交付周期，物理稀缺性正成为限制营收增速的硬顶。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c2eb2a0b9d/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI电力需求与电网扩容瓶颈：配电侧容量与变压器产能对算力部署的制约", "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师： 公用事业分析师（utilities-analyst）· 立场： 支持（SUPPORT，延伸研究记录04） - 工作日期： 2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 任务： 评估电网侧扩容周期、特高压建设进度...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2c3381b991f8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "601179.SH", "600089.SH", "CEG", "688676.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a119a01ce4", "title": "评估AI算力能耗增长对电力与电网瓶颈的影响，以及能源成本压力如何传导至下游CXO产业链。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 评估AI算力能耗增长对电力与电网瓶颈的影响，以及能源成本压力如何传导至下游CXO产业链。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a119a01ce4/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI电力需求与电网扩容瓶颈：配电侧容量与变压器产能对算力部署的制约", "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师： 公用事业分析师（utilities-analyst）· 立场： 支持（SUPPORT，延伸研究记录04） - 工作日期： 2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 任务： 评估电网侧扩容周期、特高压建设进度...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2c3381b991f8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "002028.SZ", "CEG", "601179.SH", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-70daf87262", "title": "A 股红利与硬科技杠铃仍是政策、利率和风险偏好的组合表达", "titleEn": "A-share dividend and hard-tech barbell remains the portfolio expression of policy, rates, and risk appetite", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-70daf87262/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "strengthening", "directionLabel": "强化", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究研究报告 — 2026-06-13", "summary": "截至研究所工作日 2026-06-13，我的判断是 有条件支持红利防御：在 55.00% 高股息底仓下，如果去杠杆冲击仍主要落在 CPO/高贝塔科技，组合波动仍会下降；但若市场通过抛售长江电力式的高流动性...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6cc6243da5ee/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601398.SH", "601088.SH", "600941.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "601939.SH", "510880.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4e383ee09c", "title": "2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4e383ee09c/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-13 AI基础设施研究记录：Capex结构从GPU订单转向已通电MW", "summary": "2026-06-13 AI基础设施研究记录：Capex结构从GPU订单转向已通电MW", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fdf49d39a08e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4f2d0121d3", "title": "高利润率出口材料企业需等待利润修复确认", "titleEn": "High-margin export materials require confirmation of profit recovery", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f2d0121d3/", "laneId": "lane_7e439482cbef", "lane": "中国出口制造/利润率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-export-manufacturing-and-margins/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录 05 · 美国301关税与贸易壁垒对涂料/防水产业链利润率的二次挤压风险", "summary": "研究记录 05 · 美国301关税与贸易壁垒对涂料/防水产业链利润率的二次挤压风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-41ae8e7bac3a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600690.SH", "000333.SZ", "600900.SH", "002139.SZ", "2313.HK", "605183.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-42ca700527", "title": "霍尔木兹海峡60天和平协定签署且制裁豁免延长，导致运力大增、布伦特油价跌5.23%至$73.05/桶，LME铝价从高位跌19.1%至$3…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 霍尔木兹海峡60天和平协定签署且制裁豁免延长，导致运力大增、布伦特油价跌5.23%至$73.05/桶，LME铝价从高位跌19.1%至$3…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-42ca700527/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "能源价格韧性对轻度滞胀逻辑的验证及其对大宗商品配置的影响", "summary": "作者： 能源分析师 · 立场： 支持 （推进研究记录 05 的大类资产配置逻辑） - 工作日： 2026-06-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 一句话论点： 能源价格的韧性源于结构性的供给侧冲击（伊朗冲...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-58e59d5791ed/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "0857.HK", "SLB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-241377c8be", "title": "显示材料改善需由利润率与现金流共同确认", "titleEn": "Display-material recovery requires joint margin and cash-flow confirmation", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-241377c8be/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 59, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI基建挤出效应下半导体利润率压力测试", "summary": "报告日期： 2026-06-13（Asia/Singapore，研究院权威工作日期） 研究线程标识： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录索引： 4/10 分析师： 半导体分析师（ID: semiconductors-analyst）...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3d0730c8c031/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "ASML", "000660.KS", "MU", "002916.SZ", "600552.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-6f42e0fe6e", "title": "稀土、铜铝与关键材料正在成为 AI 与新能源共用的供给约束", "titleEn": "Rare earths, copper, aluminum, and key materials are becoming shared supply constraints for AI and energy transition", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6f42e0fe6e/", "laneId": "lane_8c4a3526fcca", "lane": "关键材料/稀土铜铝", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/critical-materials-rare-earths-copper-and-aluminum/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 58, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "铜价波动下特高压设备厂商的利润韧性：价格联动机制的覆盖范围与滞后效应评估", "summary": "铜价波动下特高压设备厂商的利润韧性：价格联动机制的覆盖范围与滞后效应评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-906e55f8aeee/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "FCX", "GEV", "000831.SZ", "SCCO", "ETN", "MP", "TECK", "600111.SH", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-42faeae623", "title": "CPO、光互联与铜连接决定 AI 集群内部租金迁移", "titleEn": "CPO, optical interconnect, and copper links define rent migration inside AI clusters", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-42faeae623/", "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956", "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 55, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI 基础设施的硬件范式：从 GPU 算力到配电与液冷散热的硬件重构定量报告", "summary": "AI 基础设施的硬件范式：从 GPU 算力到配电与液冷散热的硬件重构定量报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ef66663a737e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "NVDA", "AVGO", "META", "COHR", "LITE", "300394.SZ", "MRVL", "TSM", "MSFT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9a860a8801", "title": "信用再融资压力正在把利率风险转化为资产负债表筛选", "titleEn": "Credit refinancing pressure is turning rate risk into balance-sheet selection", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a860a8801/", "laneId": "lane_b29e1d216a21", "lane": "信用再融资/私募信贷", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/credit-refinancing-and-private-debt/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 52, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "办公地产债务违约风险与 CMBS 信用违约压力测试 —— 办公 CMBS 违约率能否突破 12%？", "summary": "办公地产债务违约风险与 CMBS 信用违约压力测试 —— 办公 CMBS 违约率能否突破 12%？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1a565a899e8b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "KRE", "JPM", "META", "BX", "ARES", "KKR", "APO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c6c6be4745", "title": "中国出口制造的胜负手从低价扩张转向利润率、合规和本地化", "titleEn": "Chinese export manufacturing is shifting from low-price expansion to margin, compliance, and localization", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c6c6be4745/", "laneId": "lane_7e439482cbef", "lane": "中国出口制造/利润率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-export-manufacturing-and-margins/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录 05 · 美国301关税与贸易壁垒对涂料/防水产业链利润率的二次挤压风险", "summary": "研究记录 05 · 美国301关税与贸易壁垒对涂料/防水产业链利润率的二次挤压风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-41ae8e7bac3a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "000333.SZ", "600690.SH", "300750.SZ", "002594.SZ", "600900.SH", "2313.HK", "002139.SZ", "002475.SZ", "2020.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9e97140446", "title": "中国电力设备出海进入订单质量与政策筛选期", "titleEn": "Chinese power-equipment exports enter an order-quality and policy filter phase", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9e97140446/", "laneId": "lane_e4b72516d71a", "lane": "中国电力设备出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-power-equipment-exports/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "研究报告：铜与硅钢的“双杀” —— 电力设备厂商 1700 bps 毛利率回吐风险评估", "summary": "研究报告：铜与硅钢的“双杀” —— 电力设备厂商 1700 bps 毛利率回吐风险评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c3e05732ae13/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "ETN", "GEV", "002270.SZ", "688676.SH", "ABBNY", "600406.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5057edfa79", "title": "AI-Biology 与医疗效率改善需要从科研突破走向支付和监管兑现", "titleEn": "AI biology and healthcare productivity must move from research breakthroughs to reimbursement and regulatory proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5057edfa79/", "laneId": "lane_2eefe4e126c6", "lane": "AI 医疗/生物科技效率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-healthcare-and-biology-productivity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 48, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "产业链调研报告：功能性食品“消费医疗”估值的监管边界与压力测试", "summary": "产业链调研报告：功能性食品“消费医疗”估值的监管边界与压力测试 日期： 2026-06-13 分析师： 主题研究员 (Thematic Researcher) 状态： 压力测试 (Stress-test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-929d8cecf141/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300760.SZ", "688271.SH", "300633.SZ", "688212.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "688617.SH", "DHR", "SDGR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2ec6b9d3ee", "title": "卫星直连与商业航天从概念弹性进入部署兑现期", "titleEn": 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