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"/investor/reports/archive-2a62cd56dc21/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-06-12 报告编号：02 / 10 研究立场：支持 (Support — 确认地方化债对设备更新预算的宏观制约) 分析师：全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst) — global-macro", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-c7ff2f2f4825", "title": "算力税对 AI-native Biotech Runway 的压力测试", "date": "2026-06-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c7ff2f2f4825/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至 2026-06-12，本报告支持前序研究的主线，但需要收窄结论：“算力税”本身不足以让所有 AI-native Biotech 破产，却足以把临床前模型规模变成资本配置约束。Oracle FY2026 财报披露剩余履约...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-abe4a903f6a3", "title": "红利挤兑与债券性红利平价：2026-06-17 多资产配置策略", "date": "2026-06-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-abe4a903f6a3/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "日期： 2026-06-17 [自测算：本地 系统日期锚 返回 2026-06-17] 分析师： 首席策略师 ( chief-strategist ) 立场： 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"research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-e35ed1b55850", "title": "医药哑铃组合：风险预算与相关性校准报告 (2026-06-12)", "date": "2026-06-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e35ed1b55850/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "1. 执行摘要 截至2026年6月12日，A股市场呈现出AI/半导体与防御性板块之间的估值两极分化。本报告对多资产组合中10%医药“哑铃”仓位的风险预算进行了校准。研究发现， 出海轨 （8%）作为“高质...", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-7125c2175533", "title": "2026-06-12 策略卡：利率反转风险与红利资产久期重构", "date": "2026-06-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7125c2175533/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日 2026-06-12，我对前序固收压力测试给出综合并偏支持的结论，但将组合动作从“对冲红利久期”推进到“重构红利组合内部久期”：若央行借入国债并卖出导致10Y国债利率上行 25bps...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-94e6e5092d8e", "title": "全球大型变压器与高压开关柜供应链瓶颈：美国AI与电网基建的物理硬约束", "date": "2026-06-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-94e6e5092d8e/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期： 2026-06-12 （Asia/Singapore） - 分析师：工业制造分析师 (Industrials Analyst) - 立场： support（支持） - research note", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-3f1cab322c4c", "title": "研究报告：DOE 2029能效标准与全球电力设备贸易壁垒研判", "date": "2026-06-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3f1cab322c4c/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究报告：DOE 2029能效标准与全球电力设备贸易壁垒研判 工作日期： 2026-06-12 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test) 分析师： 主题研究员 (Thematic Researcher)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-0488466c5ff8", "title": "新华财经家装产业链调研报告：低估值阿尔法标的筛选与跨链溢出风险评估", "date": "2026-06-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0488466c5ff8/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究记录 - 研究员 : 房地产分析师 (Real Estate Analyst) - 研究立场 : 初始 (Initial) - 权威工作日期 : 2026-06-24 (Asia/Singapore)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-e33007905bfd", "title": "A股医药哑铃组合仓位再校准——基于出海器械单只可投资性筛选", "date": "2026-06-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e33007905bfd/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-06-12（Asia/Singapore） - 分析师：首席策略师（chief-strategist） - 立场：synthesize（在既有研究记录基础上做组合落地） - 研究记录", "tags": [ "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-3b3fbf836a4a", "title": "A股融资余额传导压力测试，工作日期2026-06-17", "date": "2026-06-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3b3fbf836a4a/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "在研究所工作日期2026-06-17 [S0]，我对研究记录01的判断做压力测试而非简单复述：融资余额、成交额与构成数据共同指向高估值、拥挤科技标的的局部去杠杆压力，尚未证明折算率下调已经向全市场...", "tags": [ "AI", "A股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-ae392ee1e457", "title": "USD/JPY 160 Put 对冲：日本央行鹰派意外情景下的压力测试", "date": "2026-06-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ae392ee1e457/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "日期： 2026-06-12 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 [global-macro] 主题： USD/JPY 160 关口突破与凸性看跌期权对冲的有效性评估 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "tags": [ "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-e1ecdbcd75e4", "title": "前序研究 TMT研究 - 2026-06-12", "date": "2026-06-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e1ecdbcd75e4/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日期2026-06-12，我支持前序研究关于“AI集成度”成为家装与家电链第二条Alpha线索的判断，但需要加限定：真正支撑品牌溢价的不是简单加一颗通用联网芯片，而是家电场景专用感知...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-6ca166a57d77", "title": "超大规模云数据中心扩建中电力与电网瓶颈的验证", "date": "2026-06-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6ca166a57d77/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "日期（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-06-12 - 分析师：AI 基础设施分析师 - 立场： 支持 （延伸研究记录 01） - 第 2/8 张 根主题：\"AI 基建领先指标从 GPU 切向电网与施工瓶颈\"", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-5c1ff3867d20", "title": "原材料市场的物理实证：高成本挤压与供需分化证伪“需求转向”", "date": "2026-06-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5c1ff3867d20/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究记录 — 作者角色：材料行业分析师 (Materials Analyst) — 钢铁、化工、有色金属、电池材料 工作日期：2026-06-12（亚洲/新加坡） · 立场：synthesize", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-8b80a025af19", "title": "海洋能源基础设施（海上风电与海洋能源装备）产能扩张与利润率分析", "date": "2026-06-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8b80a025af19/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "海洋能源基础设施（海上风电与海洋能源装备）产能扩张与利润率分析 作者: 能源行业分析师 (energy-analyst) 日期: 2026年6月12日 研究记录 态度: 支持 (Support)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-fc1b22b8c8ec", "title": "研究报告：关税壁垒下的全球LFP产能重构路径（2026年6月）", "date": "2026-06-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fc1b22b8c8ec/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "日期： 2026-06-12 分析师： 主题研究员 (Thematic Researcher) 课题： 关税壁垒与供应链脱钩下的全球储能产能重构路径 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-e236ad585a9e", "title": "2026-06-12 半导体压力测试：AI硬件订单韧性评估", "date": "2026-06-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e236ad585a9e/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日2026-06-12 [自测算：本地 系统日期锚 ]，我对上一张卡的判断采取压力测试而非否定：半导体链条仍能看到真实的AI订单拉动、先进制程和先进封装产能偏紧，以及头部环...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-2d5147cc9dde", "title": "AI基础设施龙头：利润兑现度与估值拥挤度校验", "date": "2026-06-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2d5147cc9dde/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "AI基础设施龙头：利润兑现度与估值拥挤度校验 日期： 2026-06-12 分析师： AI基础设施分析师 (AI Infrastructure Analyst) 状态： 压力测试 / 结项审阅", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-c7a2e7fd4985", "title": "全球宏观与外汇综合分析：电网能源瓶颈、关税摩擦与日元套利交易的脆弱性", "date": "2026-06-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c7a2e7fd4985/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "全球宏观与外汇综合分析：电网能源瓶颈、关税摩擦与日元套利交易的脆弱性 作者： 全球宏观分析师 (gma) 日期： 2026-06-12 (亚洲/新加坡) 立场： 综合 (Synthesize)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-31071e20c9b8", "title": "欧洲特种钢价溢价及其对海工装备利润率传导的压力测试", "date": "2026-06-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-31071e20c9b8/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "作者：材料行业分析师 (materials-analyst) - 日期：2026-06-12（Asia/Singapore，机构工作日历） - 立场：stress-test - 研究记录", "tags": [ "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-c2bef1a63043", "title": "欧盟贸易合规与绿色钢材标准：海工装备供应链压力测试", "date": "2026-06-12", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c2bef1a63043/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "作者：主题研究员 (thematic-researcher) - 日期：2026-06-12（Asia/Singapore，机构工作日历） - 立场：stress-test - 研究记录", "tags": 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"title": "能源权重先降还是科技先回补", "question": "在 Brent/WTI 回落但 OVX 压力和中东实物流量风险仍高的条件下，组合应先把能源降至12.9%-14.1%并释放 VaR，还是允许以期权保护承接5% CPO/科技试仓？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "运价急升是需求修复还是关税前置拉货？", "question": "Drewry WCI 单周 +23% 且跨太平洋西岸 +31%，但运输股未跟涨；我们应把这解释为集运盈利上修、零售毛利压力，还是 6 月前置拉货后的 7 月需求真空？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" } ], "thesisEvents": [ { "id": "thesis-4f2d0121d3", "title": "高利润率出口材料企业需等待利润修复确认", "titleEn": "High-margin export materials require confirmation of profit recovery", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f2d0121d3/", "laneId": "lane_7e439482cbef", "lane": "中国出口制造/利润率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-export-manufacturing-and-margins/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 2, "risks": 5, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "40%出口链防御组合的终极重构与降仓规则：将工业地产与运营场址证据纳入配置体系", "summary": "40%出口链防御组合的终极重构与降仓规则：将工业地产与运营场址证据纳入配置体系 权威工作日期：2026-06-12 分析师：首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) 研究立场：合成 (Synthesize)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de4e7224cd24/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "欧洲特种钢价溢价及其对海工装备利润率传导的压力测试", "summary": "作者：材料行业分析师 (materials-analyst) - 日期：2026-06-12（Asia/Singapore，机构工作日历） - 立场：stress-test - 研究记录", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-31071e20c9b8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "美国Sec 232与墨西哥贸易壁垒下中国电力设备出海利润率压力测试", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-06-12 分析立场： 压力测试 (STRESS-TEST) 分析师： 主题研究员 (agy) 工作区根目录： research discussion/75df017a-fabf-451f-9a65-0d40f3e16e7d/ 本报告片目录： research d...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4fc77de2dc75/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "海洋能源基础设施（海上风电与海洋能源装备）产能扩张与利润率分析", "summary": "海洋能源基础设施（海上风电与海洋能源装备）产能扩张与利润率分析 作者: 能源行业分析师 (energy-analyst) 日期: 2026年6月12日 研究记录 态度: 支持 (Support)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8b80a025af19/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600690.SH", "000333.SZ", "600900.SH", "002139.SZ", "2313.HK", "605183.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-be91bfe6ee", "title": "高纯石英材料需求需由先进封装订单验证", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz demand requires validation from advanced-packaging orders", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-be91bfe6ee/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 63, "supports": 0, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "先进封装与HBM产能瓶颈对AI数据中心交付周期的二次约束：项目级NPV压力测试", "summary": "先进封装与HBM产能瓶颈对AI数据中心交付周期的二次约束：项目级NPV压力测试 日期： 2026-06-12（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst [AI基础设施分析师] 主题： 先进封装与HBM产...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-60a95a4bc95d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "宏观波动与 AI ROI 下修共振下的全球半导体产业链估值重塑压力测试", "summary": "作者： 半导体分析师 (agy) 日期： 2026-06-12 分析立场： 压力测试 (部分支持前序审慎结论，并在物理与资金传导机制上进行关键修正与补充)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-76f8b672f2f3/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-12压力测试：先进封装与HBM的拥挤度、估值与盈利下修风险", "summary": "2026-06-12压力测试：先进封装与HBM的拥挤度、估值与盈利下修风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c5eb04f71e9a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-12 半导体压力测试：AI硬件订单韧性评估", "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-06-12 [自测算：本地 系统日期锚 ]，我对上一张卡的判断采取压力测试而非否定：半导体链条仍能看到真实的AI订单拉动、先进制程和先进封装产能偏紧，以及头部环...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e236ad585a9e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "000660.KS", "688012.SH", "MU", "ASML", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-66eb42380e", "title": "海洋经济的政策催化需要落到船舶订单、海工装备与海上资源现金流", "titleEn": "Marine-economy policy support must convert into ship orders, offshore equipment, and offshore-resource cash flow", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-66eb42380e/", "laneId": "lane_f8b4918fe5b3", "lane": "海洋经济/船舶海工", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/marine-economy-shipbuilding-and-offshore-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 5, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "海工装备产业链 · 中国宏观与政策综合 (既有研究记录)", "summary": "海工装备产业链 · 中国宏观与政策综合 (既有研究记录)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bc75635f9cb6/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "海工装备产业链覆盖卡（工作日期：2026-06-12）[WB]", "summary": "截至 2026-06-12，我支持启动海工装备产业链覆盖，但应把 5.4% 激活率理解为内部早期覆盖信号，而不是单独的买入信号 [WB]。证据更偏向订单可见度，而非短期价格弹性：中国海工装备 2026 年一季...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-17c18143caea/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "欧洲电价通胀与海工装备本地化的二次成本冲击", "summary": "作者: 能源行业分析师 (energy-analyst) 工作日期: 2026-06-12（Asia/Singapore） 研究记录 态度: 压力测试 工作区说明: 本次运行时，实时文件系统中未找到 研究档案 、 research note/...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e30311f4d433/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "海洋经济专用指数构建与资产配置策略研究", "summary": "作者: 首席策略师 (chief-strategist) 日期: 2026-06-12 研究记录 态度: 支持（杠铃式、红利主导的细化）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d8e7bca9418/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601890.SH", "600150.SH", "600938.SH", "600583.SH", "603727.SH", "000039.SZ", "0883.HK", "300589.SZ", "601919.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c6c6be4745", "title": "中国出口制造的胜负手从低价扩张转向利润率、合规和本地化", "titleEn": "Chinese export manufacturing is shifting from low-price expansion to margin, compliance, and localization", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c6c6be4745/", "laneId": "lane_7e439482cbef", "lane": "中国出口制造/利润率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-export-manufacturing-and-margins/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 2, "risks": 5, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "40%出口链防御组合的终极重构与降仓规则：将工业地产与运营场址证据纳入配置体系", "summary": "40%出口链防御组合的终极重构与降仓规则：将工业地产与运营场址证据纳入配置体系 权威工作日期：2026-06-12 分析师：首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) 研究立场：合成 (Synthesize)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de4e7224cd24/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "欧洲特种钢价溢价及其对海工装备利润率传导的压力测试", "summary": "作者：材料行业分析师 (materials-analyst) - 日期：2026-06-12（Asia/Singapore，机构工作日历） - 立场：stress-test - 研究记录", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-31071e20c9b8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "美国Sec 232与墨西哥贸易壁垒下中国电力设备出海利润率压力测试", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-06-12 分析立场： 压力测试 (STRESS-TEST) 分析师： 主题研究员 (agy) 工作区根目录： research discussion/75df017a-fabf-451f-9a65-0d40f3e16e7d/ 本报告片目录： research d...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4fc77de2dc75/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "海洋能源基础设施（海上风电与海洋能源装备）产能扩张与利润率分析", "summary": "海洋能源基础设施（海上风电与海洋能源装备）产能扩张与利润率分析 作者: 能源行业分析师 (energy-analyst) 日期: 2026年6月12日 研究记录 态度: 支持 (Support)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8b80a025af19/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "000333.SZ", "600690.SH", "300750.SZ", "002594.SZ", "600900.SH", "2313.HK", "002139.SZ", "002475.SZ", "2020.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5057edfa79", "title": "AI-Biology 与医疗效率改善需要从科研突破走向支付和监管兑现", "titleEn": "AI biology and healthcare productivity must move from research breakthroughs to reimbursement and regulatory proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5057edfa79/", "laneId": "lane_2eefe4e126c6", "lane": "AI 医疗/生物科技效率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-healthcare-and-biology-productivity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 48, "supports": 0, "risks": 6, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "化债资金规模与流向对医疗设备更新政策宏观制约性的评估报告", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-12 报告编号：02 / 10 研究立场：支持 (Support — 确认地方化债对设备更新预算的宏观制约) 分析师：全球宏观分析师 (Global Macro Analyst) — global-macro", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2a62cd56dc21/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "出海主导型医疗器械公司筛选：地区收入、关税税目与MDR/EUDAMED准备度", "summary": "出海主导型医疗器械公司筛选：地区收入、关税税目与MDR/EUDAMED准备度", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9eb5879b7262/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "化债制约与设备更新双轨制下A股医疗器械板块的风格轮动与仓位校准", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-06-12（亚洲/新加坡） 研究线程标识： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录 分析师： 首席策略师（ chief-strategist ） 立场： 支持（support） ——将 prior research...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de71cac05592/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股医药哑铃组合仓位再校准——基于出海器械单只可投资性筛选", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-12（Asia/Singapore） - 分析师：首席策略师（chief-strategist） - 立场：synthesize（在既有研究记录基础上做组合落地） - 研究记录", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e33007905bfd/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300760.SZ", "688271.SH", "300633.SZ", "688212.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "688617.SH", "DHR", "SDGR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b13c7cf092", "title": "高纯石英材料受益于先进封装扩产，但兑现取决于认证与产品结构", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz can benefit from advanced-packaging expansion, conditional on qualification and mix", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13c7cf092/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "先进封装与HBM产能瓶颈对AI数据中心交付周期的二次约束：项目级NPV压力测试", "summary": "先进封装与HBM产能瓶颈对AI数据中心交付周期的二次约束：项目级NPV压力测试 日期： 2026-06-12（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst [AI基础设施分析师] 主题： 先进封装与HBM产...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-60a95a4bc95d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-12压力测试：先进封装与HBM的拥挤度、估值与盈利下修风险", "summary": "2026-06-12压力测试：先进封装与HBM的拥挤度、估值与盈利下修风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c5eb04f71e9a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-12 半导体压力测试：AI硬件订单韧性评估", "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-06-12 [自测算：本地 系统日期锚 ]，我对上一张卡的判断采取压力测试而非否定：半导体链条仍能看到真实的AI订单拉动、先进制程和先进封装产能偏紧，以及头部环...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e236ad585a9e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "MU", "000660.KS", "ASML", "688012.SH", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2fe5298427", "title": "Sivers (SIVE:STO) 概念被供应链证伪，而国内电子板块融资余额高达5608亿元，四大半导体龙头两融保证金缺口达93.81亿…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Sivers (SIVE:STO) 概念被供应链证伪，而国内电子板块融资余额高达5608亿元，四大半导体龙头两融保证金缺口达93.81亿…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2fe5298427/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 69, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "海外risk-on与A股科技去杠杆的错位 — 首席策略师视角", "summary": "板块：首席策略师 (chief-strategist) - 工作日：2026-06-12 (Asia/Singapore) - 研究记录（initial 立场） - 核心问题：隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-51a34c0451c8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-12 A股结构性 risk-on：交易拥挤度、融资余额、ETF调样与解禁供给验证", "summary": "2026-06-12 A股结构性 risk-on：交易拥挤度、融资余额、ETF调样与解禁供给验证", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ad92e0e54ef2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-16 策略压力测试：A股成长轮动、解禁供给与科创50障碍位风险", "summary": "2026-06-16 策略压力测试：A股成长轮动、解禁供给与科创50障碍位风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a793744e36f6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3f6ee4feb9", "title": "核电容量机制可改善现金流，但资本开支约束仍在", "titleEn": "Nuclear capacity mechanisms may improve cash flow, but capex remains binding", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3f6ee4feb9/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "首席策略师研判：红利极化下的\"水电核电守正、出口链奇兵\"双底座切换", "summary": "报告日期：2026-06-12（Asia/Singapore，机构权威工作日） - 发稿：A股策略与风格配置部 / 首席策略师 - 既有研究记录 - 上一手延续对象：A股策略师 2026-05-25《流动性紧缩压力映射...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d21f42be3b2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "能源行业分析师：核能与大型水电的增量供应能否填补AI电力缺口？（压力测试）", "summary": "能源行业分析师：核能与大型水电的增量供应能否填补AI电力缺口？（压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7aef5c0f4902/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "在岸电力链右尾凸性评估：中国AI电力需求与电改对A股电力股的量化影响 (2026-06-12)", "summary": "在岸电力链右尾凸性评估：中国AI电力需求与电改对A股电力股的量化影响 (2026-06-12)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e22adcbed753/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "CEG", "AEP", "600025.SH", "DUK", "1816.HK", "NEE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8bbbcdf5a4", "title": "GPU、HBM 与先进封装决定 AI 资本开支供给节奏", "titleEn": "GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging shape the AI capex supply cycle", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8bbbcdf5a4/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-12 AI算力基础设施Capex风险压力测试：半导体去杠杆会否重估数据中心与电网项目？", "summary": "2026-06-12 AI算力基础设施Capex风险压力测试：半导体去杠杆会否重估数据中心与电网项目？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cbca4cd46b3c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力瓶颈倒逼AI加速器走向\"每瓦算力优先\"——先进封装的NPV重估", "summary": "电力瓶颈倒逼AI加速器走向\"每瓦算力优先\"——先进封装的NPV重估 - 分析师：半导体分析师 (semiconductors-analyst) - 工作日期：2026-06-12 (Asia/Singapore) - 研究记录 ｜ 立场：support（支...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e084ebf77a6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "先进封装与HBM产能瓶颈对AI数据中心交付周期的二次约束：项目级NPV压力测试", "summary": "先进封装与HBM产能瓶颈对AI数据中心交付周期的二次约束：项目级NPV压力测试 日期： 2026-06-12（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst [AI基础设施分析师] 主题： 先进封装与HBM产...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-60a95a4bc95d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "META", "AMD", "AVGO", "MU", "MSFT", "000660.KS", "GOOGL", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f5d7a79c82", "title": "HBM4、CoWoS 与背面供电正在成为 AI 服务器需求曲线的串行闸门", "titleEn": "HBM4, CoWoS, and backside power are becoming serial gates for the AI-server demand curve", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5d7a79c82/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "先进封装与HBM产能瓶颈对AI数据中心交付周期的二次约束：项目级NPV压力测试", "summary": "先进封装与HBM产能瓶颈对AI数据中心交付周期的二次约束：项目级NPV压力测试 日期： 2026-06-12（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst [AI基础设施分析师] 主题： 先进封装与HBM产...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-60a95a4bc95d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-12压力测试：先进封装与HBM的拥挤度、估值与盈利下修风险", "summary": "2026-06-12压力测试：先进封装与HBM的拥挤度、估值与盈利下修风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c5eb04f71e9a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "出口管制对先进封装与HBM瓶颈的叠加影响：一次按地理分叉的压力测试", "summary": "日期： 2026-06-12（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师： thematic-researcher [主题研究员] 主题： 出口管制对先进封装与HBM产能瓶颈的叠加影响 立场： 压力测试（Stress-test） 研究记录", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-374d59988c1d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "000660.KS", "MU", "AMD", "META", "AVGO", "MSFT", "AMZN", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9e97140446", "title": "中国电力设备出海进入订单质量与政策筛选期", "titleEn": "Chinese power-equipment exports enter an order-quality and policy filter phase", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9e97140446/", "laneId": "lane_e4b72516d71a", "lane": "中国电力设备出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-power-equipment-exports/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-12 公用事业研究记录01：GOES +20% / 铜 +20% 下输配电设备商的毛利率挤压", "summary": "2026-06-12 公用事业研究记录01：GOES +20% / 铜 +20% 下输配电设备商的毛利率挤压", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-82d3658e1ed1/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "AI算力扩张与电力电网瓶颈：压测下一个基础设施约束节点", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-06-12 分析立场： 压测 (STRESS-TEST，对电网容量瓶颈的硬性约束时间与光模块切换弹性进行对比压测) 分析师： 能源行业分析师 (agy) 工作区根目录： research discussion/75df0...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7fb12bb05df/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "美国Sec 232与墨西哥贸易壁垒下中国电力设备出海利润率压力测试", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-06-12 分析立场： 压力测试 (STRESS-TEST) 分析师： 主题研究员 (agy) 工作区根目录： research discussion/75df017a-fabf-451f-9a65-0d40f3e16e7d/ 本报告片目录： research d...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4fc77de2dc75/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "ETN", "GEV", "002270.SZ", "688676.SH", "ABBNY", "600406.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d614778e40", "title": "CAR-T商业化取决于进院、支付与订单转化", "titleEn": "CAR-T commercialization depends on hospital access, reimbursement, and order conversion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d614778e40/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "A股医药哑铃组合仓位再校准——基于出海器械单只可投资性筛选", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-12（Asia/Singapore） - 分析师：首席策略师（chief-strategist） - 立场：synthesize（在既有研究记录基础上做组合落地） - 研究记录", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e33007905bfd/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "专题报告：地缘合规压力下中资ADC与CGT创新药企业的结构性调整与CXO订单流向", "summary": "专题报告：地缘合规压力下中资ADC与CGT创新药企业的结构性调整与CXO订单流向", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-12dc4c7f9be8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "1801.HK", "600276.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "603259.SH", "1177.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9d1baaec59", "title": "CAR-T商业化取决于进院、支付覆盖与患者转化", "titleEn": "CAR-T commercialization depends on hospital access, reimbursement and patient conversion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d1baaec59/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "A股医药哑铃组合仓位再校准——基于出海器械单只可投资性筛选", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-12（Asia/Singapore） - 分析师：首席策略师（chief-strategist） - 立场：synthesize（在既有研究记录基础上做组合落地） - 研究记录", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e33007905bfd/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "专题报告：地缘合规压力下中资ADC与CGT创新药企业的结构性调整与CXO订单流向", "summary": "专题报告：地缘合规压力下中资ADC与CGT创新药企业的结构性调整与CXO订单流向", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-12dc4c7f9be8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "1801.HK", "600276.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "603259.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b13b8604a5", "title": "美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美元兑日元跌破161.50关口，财务省干预概率陡增。一旦日元套利平仓瞬间引爆全球EM科技股抛售，叠加SpaceX二次配售24.5亿元的资…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13b8604a5/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-16 A股策略卡：日元套利平仓、SpaceX IPO 资金虹吸与 DeepSeek-昇腾右侧买点", "summary": "2026-06-16 A股策略卡：日元套利平仓、SpaceX IPO 资金虹吸与 DeepSeek-昇腾右侧买点", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-75f5653d1c6d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股股指期货基差走阔与日元 160 Put 变现：T+0 资金桥的成本侵蚀评估报告", "summary": "A股股指期货基差走阔与日元 160 Put 变现：T+0 资金桥的成本侵蚀评估报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-36e8fc31f7b7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "KWEB", "FXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b37a11e5a3", "title": "FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b37a11e5a3/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "电力瓶颈倒逼AI加速器走向\"每瓦算力优先\"——先进封装的NPV重估", "summary": "电力瓶颈倒逼AI加速器走向\"每瓦算力优先\"——先进封装的NPV重估 - 分析师：半导体分析师 (semiconductors-analyst) - 工作日期：2026-06-12 (Asia/Singapore) - 研究记录 ｜ 立场：support（支...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e084ebf77a6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-12 AI算力基础设施Capex风险压力测试：半导体去杠杆会否重估数据中心与电网项目？", "summary": "2026-06-12 AI算力基础设施Capex风险压力测试：半导体去杠杆会否重估数据中心与电网项目？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cbca4cd46b3c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f3989d02c5", "title": "全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球电网核心设备及原材料的产能赤字已构成刚性物理准入壁垒，导致产业利润池从算力/晶圆厂资本支出方结构性向重电OEM厂商转移。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f3989d02c5/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-12压力测试：电力设备交付周期与Hyperscaler AI集群部署", "summary": "2026-06-12压力测试：电力设备交付周期与Hyperscaler AI集群部署", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3793d255b198/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI算力估值模型重构：从GPU物理囤积转向“资产负债表与电力交付”", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-06-12 (Asia/Singapore) 作者： 首席策略师 (agy) 研究记录索引： 01/08", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c957be21439b/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "META", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4e383ee09c", "title": "2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4e383ee09c/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试：电力 × 先进封装的\"双重约束\"如何重排超大规模厂商CAPEX", "summary": "压力测试：电力 × 先进封装的\"双重约束\"如何重排超大规模厂商CAPEX", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1cdeb76edf9c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-12 AI算力基础设施Capex风险压力测试：半导体去杠杆会否重估数据中心与电网项目？", "summary": "2026-06-12 AI算力基础设施Capex风险压力测试：半导体去杠杆会否重估数据中心与电网项目？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cbca4cd46b3c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4b3b37e207", "title": "散户情绪与北向资金背离是 A 股风险偏好的关键温度计", "titleEn": "Retail sentiment versus northbound flow divergence is the key A-share risk thermometer", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b3b37e207/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "海外risk-on与A股科技去杠杆的错位 — 首席策略师视角", "summary": "板块：首席策略师 (chief-strategist) - 工作日：2026-06-12 (Asia/Singapore) - 研究记录（initial 立场） - 核心问题：隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-51a34c0451c8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-06-12 A股结构性 risk-on：交易拥挤度、融资余额、ETF调样与解禁供给验证", "summary": "2026-06-12 A股结构性 risk-on：交易拥挤度、融资余额、ETF调样与解禁供给验证", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ad92e0e54ef2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "300308.SZ", "300750.SZ", "600519.SH", "159915.SZ", "510300.SH", "688256.SH", "600900.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bef6966fdd", "title": "工业机械的出口订单质量和设备更新周期决定制造业 CapEx 弹性", "titleEn": "Industrial machinery beta depends on export-order quality and equipment-upgrade capex", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bef6966fdd/", "laneId": "lane_6e2dcaab093e", "lane": "工业机械/设备更新出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/industrial-machinery-equipment-upgrade-and-exports/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 59, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "40%出口链防御组合的终极重构与降仓规则：将工业地产与运营场址证据纳入配置体系", "summary": "40%出口链防御组合的终极重构与降仓规则：将工业地产与运营场址证据纳入配置体系 权威工作日期：2026-06-12 分析师：首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) 研究立场：合成 (Synthesize)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de4e7224cd24/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "研究报告：美方 Q3 关税复审对出口链龙头（白电及工程机械）的影响评估", "summary": "研究报告：美方 Q3 关税复审对出口链龙头（白电及工程机械）的影响评估 日期： 2026年6月12日 分析师： 主题研究员 (Thematic Researcher) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eb45da8935ca/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600031.SH", "600761.SH", "002747.SZ", "000425.SZ", "603338.SH", "603298.SH", "000157.SZ", "601100.SH", "300124.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-44cf9d91f6", "title": "中国大健康 Alpha 正从医保压价转向创新药出海、临床确定性与设备刚需", "titleEn": "China healthcare alpha is moving from reimbursement pressure to overseas licensing, clinical certainty, and equipment...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-44cf9d91f6/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 57, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "专题报告：地缘合规压力下中资ADC与CGT创新药企业的结构性调整与CXO订单流向", "summary": "专题报告：地缘合规压力下中资ADC与CGT创新药企业的结构性调整与CXO订单流向", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-12dc4c7f9be8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股医药哑铃组合仓位再校准——基于出海器械单只可投资性筛选", "summary": "工作日期：2026-06-12（Asia/Singapore） - 分析师：首席策略师（chief-strategist） - 立场：synthesize（在既有研究记录基础上做组合落地） - 研究记录", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e33007905bfd/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "2359.HK", "600276.SH", "1801.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "6990.HK", "300760.SZ", "603259.SH", "1177.HK", "002821.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-aa97a5c1b3", "title": "家装链的胜负手在存量房翻新、国补触达与地产后周期库存去化", "titleEn": "Home improvement depends on existing-home renovation, subsidy reach, and post-property inventory digestion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-aa97a5c1b3/", "laneId": "lane_1efa26c729b6", "lane": "家装/地产后周期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/home-improvement-and-post-property-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "40%出口链防御组合的终极重构与降仓规则：将工业地产与运营场址证据纳入配置体系", "summary": "40%出口链防御组合的终极重构与降仓规则：将工业地产与运营场址证据纳入配置体系 权威工作日期：2026-06-12 分析师：首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) 研究立场：合成 (Synthesize)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de4e7224cd24/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "新华财经家装产业链调研报告：低估值阿尔法标的筛选与跨链溢出风险评估", "summary": "研究记录 - 研究员 : 房地产分析师 (Real Estate Analyst) - 研究立场 : 初始 (Initial) - 权威工作日期 : 2026-06-24 (Asia/Singapore)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0488466c5ff8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002572.SZ", "603833.SH", "603816.SH", "600690.SH", "LOW", "000333.SZ", "002043.SZ", "603801.SH", "002508.SZ", "001322.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e26ef69f73", "title": "风险核查与证据质量是主题交易的必要过滤器", "titleEn": "Risk verification and evidence quality are necessary filters for theme trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e26ef69f73/", "laneId": "lane_ccbe817778d1", "lane": "组合风控/证据质量", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/portfolio-risk-and-evidence-quality/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "地缘缓和后的 risk-on：真转向还是空头回补？", "summary": "研究记录 — 作者角色：首席策略师 — A股策略、风格轮动、行业配置 工作日期：2026-06-12（亚洲/新加坡） · 立场：initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7ab13337a1f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "能源权重降至 10.03% 后的通胀防御韧性与供应端冲击评估报告", "summary": "报告日期： 2026年06月12日 (亚洲/新加坡时间) - 看板 ID (研究线程标识)： [source-id-redacted] - 共享会话路由 (Shared Session Route)： c6fc1ada-954a-470b-bae6-f670519c7297...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6bae3bac5e45/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "CBOE", "IBKR", "VIRT", "SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4074d8a3d2", "title": "碳价、可再生能源与储能 CapEx 正在重塑电力资产回报", "titleEn": "Carbon pricing, renewables, and storage capex are reshaping power-asset returns", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4074d8a3d2/", "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80", "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 42, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "终审质量校验：SpaceX IPO流动性与AI电力瓶颈论证链", "summary": "报告日期（研究院工作日）： 2026-06-12（亚洲/新加坡） 作者： 研究质量主管（ID： qa-manager ）— reviewer 角色 立场： synthesize（发布前终审） 审查范围： 全部 8 张研究记录 结论： NEE...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-51010a53f499/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力供应：变压器瓶颈对能源增量并网的影响", "summary": "既有研究记录: 电力供应：变压器瓶颈对能源增量并网的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ecbfb5349675/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SMR", "002028.SZ", "GEV", "300750.SZ", "600900.SH", "MSFT", "CEG", "300274.SZ", "META", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-58f268edf9", "title": "隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-58f268edf9/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-16 策略压力测试：A股成长轮动、解禁供给与科创50障碍位风险", "summary": "2026-06-16 策略压力测试：A股成长轮动、解禁供给与科创50障碍位风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a793744e36f6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bafd2ff8e7", "title": "今日是MSCI半年度重估正式生效日。虽然散户由于昨日创业板+1.96%的V型反弹而呈现极度FOMO，但A股两融余额正高挂于2.9367万…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 今日是MSCI半年度重估正式生效日。虽然散户由于昨日创业板+1.96%的V型反弹而呈现极度FOMO，但A股两融余额正高挂于2.9367万…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bafd2ff8e7/", "laneId": "lane_122bdfde6ea9", "lane": "指数调仓/被动资金事件", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/index-rebalance-and-passive-flow-events/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-16 A股策略卡：日元套利平仓、SpaceX IPO 资金虹吸与 DeepSeek-昇腾右侧买点", "summary": "2026-06-16 A股策略卡：日元套利平仓、SpaceX IPO 资金虹吸与 DeepSeek-昇腾右侧买点", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-75f5653d1c6d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "510300.SH", "MCHI", "KWEB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e58a9e8746", "title": "日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e58a9e8746/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-12 首席策略师研究记录 05：基于 USD/JPY 160 Put 压力测试的 Beta 对冲与现金缓冲再平衡", "summary": "2026-06-12 首席策略师研究记录 05：基于 USD/JPY 160 Put 压力测试的 Beta 对冲与现金缓冲再平衡", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-28d39b5f20df/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b6e4c7b469", "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b6e4c7b469/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI算力扩张与电力电网瓶颈：压测下一个基础设施约束节点", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-06-12 分析立场： 压测 (STRESS-TEST，对电网容量瓶颈的硬性约束时间与光模块切换弹性进行对比压测) 分析师： 能源行业分析师 (agy) 工作区根目录： research discussion/75df0...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7fb12bb05df/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d09a741710", "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d09a741710/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-12 公用事业研究记录01：GOES +20% / 铜 +20% 下输配电设备商的毛利率挤压", "summary": "2026-06-12 公用事业研究记录01：GOES +20% / 铜 +20% 下输配电设备商的毛利率挤压", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-82d3658e1ed1/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d74ae315e8", "title": "当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d74ae315e8/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "USD/JPY 160 Put 对冲：日本央行鹰派意外情景下的压力测试", "summary": "日期： 2026-06-12 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 [global-macro] 主题： USD/JPY 160 关口突破与凸性看跌期权对冲的有效性评估 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ae392ee1e457/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-30acb22a10", "title": "电气设备与电力变压器OEM在跨部门稀缺下的定价权与产能填缺口时点", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电气设备与电力变压器OEM在跨部门稀缺下的定价权与产能填缺口时点", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-30acb22a10/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-12 公用事业研究记录01：GOES +20% / 铜 +20% 下输配电设备商的毛利率挤压", "summary": "2026-06-12 公用事业研究记录01：GOES +20% / 铜 +20% 下输配电设备商的毛利率挤压", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-82d3658e1ed1/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-24cd0b5ff9", "title": "在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-24cd0b5ff9/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-12 AI算力基础设施Capex风险压力测试：半导体去杠杆会否重估数据中心与电网项目？", "summary": "2026-06-12 AI算力基础设施Capex风险压力测试：半导体去杠杆会否重估数据中心与电网项目？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cbca4cd46b3c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "GOOGL", "AMZN", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5c45703323", "title": "AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5c45703323/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-12 AI算力基础设施Capex风险压力测试：半导体去杠杆会否重估数据中心与电网项目？", "summary": "2026-06-12 AI算力基础设施Capex风险压力测试：半导体去杠杆会否重估数据中心与电网项目？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cbca4cd46b3c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "NVDA", "AMD", "MU", "AVGO", "TSM", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b3e89f22e6", "title": "在极端关税与30%原料通胀的压力下，全球电网设备（利用率98%、美交期128周）的硬约束赋予A股厂商极强的定价权与贸易规避弹性，其出口高…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在极端关税与30%原料通胀的压力下，全球电网设备（利用率98%、美交期128周）的硬约束赋予A股厂商极强的定价权与贸易规避弹性，其出口高…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b3e89f22e6/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "变压器与电缆短缺引发的铜、硅钢等大宗商品价格压力与供应瓶颈分析报告 (2026-06-12)", "summary": "变压器与电缆短缺引发的铜、硅钢等大宗商品价格压力与供应瓶颈分析报告 (2026-06-12)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b97dd38599b1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "GEV", "688676.SH", "ETN", "000400.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c951442d7f", "title": "日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c951442d7f/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-12 首席策略师研究记录 05：基于 USD/JPY 160 Put 压力测试的 Beta 对冲与现金缓冲再平衡", "summary": "2026-06-12 首席策略师研究记录 05：基于 USD/JPY 160 Put 压力测试的 Beta 对冲与现金缓冲再平衡", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-28d39b5f20df/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-cf6925b02f", "title": "232/301双轨壁垒近端收紧回路、延长轨道时间溢价至2028–2029，但通过抬高美国电气化成本加速AI资本开支ROI清算——约束正从…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 232/301双轨壁垒近端收紧回路、延长轨道时间溢价至2028–2029，但通过抬高美国电气化成本加速AI资本开支ROI清算——约束正从…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-cf6925b02f/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI算力扩张与电力电网瓶颈：压测下一个基础设施约束节点", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-06-12 分析立场： 压测 (STRESS-TEST，对电网容量瓶颈的硬性约束时间与光模块切换弹性进行对比压测) 分析师： 能源行业分析师 (agy) 工作区根目录： research discussion/75df0...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7fb12bb05df/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "GEV", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "ETN", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-57faae4252", "title": "能源供应约束对AI基础设施资本开支效率的影响：电力缺口能否支撑超大规模厂商的扩容预期？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源供应约束对AI基础设施资本开支效率的影响：电力缺口能否支撑超大规模厂商的扩容预期？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-57faae4252/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电力供应：变压器瓶颈对能源增量并网的影响", "summary": "既有研究记录: 电力供应：变压器瓶颈对能源增量并网的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ecbfb5349675/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a2fc614c1", "title": "在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a2fc614c1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI基础设施压力测试：算力真的在从云端\"迁移\"到端侧吗？", "summary": "分析师： ai-infrastructure-analyst（AI基础设施分析师） - 立场： stress-test（压力测试研究记录01的\"科技内部风险再分配：拥挤的硅基算力硬件 → 具身智能验证链\"） - 工作日期： 2026-06-1...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7d90c3a4d743/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "GEV", "ETN", "CEG", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-820459973e", "title": "在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-820459973e/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI与能源的物理错配：OBBBA政策悬崖下全球半导体Capex的NPV重估", "summary": "AI与能源的物理错配：OBBBA政策悬崖下全球半导体Capex的NPV重估 日期： 2026-06-12 作者： 首席策略师 状态： 初始评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d3cf9215cba0/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "601179.SH", "600089.SH", "CEG", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2a7c29557b", "title": "在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2a7c29557b/", "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87", "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-12 AI基础设施（电力与数据中心）资本开支的去杠杆压力评估", "summary": "2026-06-12 AI基础设施（电力与数据中心）资本开支的去杠杆压力评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-584117939fa8/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "VRT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c71e511c1c", "title": "电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c71e511c1c/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电力瓶颈倒逼AI加速器走向\"每瓦算力优先\"——先进封装的NPV重估", "summary": "电力瓶颈倒逼AI加速器走向\"每瓦算力优先\"——先进封装的NPV重估 - 分析师：半导体分析师 (semiconductors-analyst) - 工作日期：2026-06-12 (Asia/Singapore) - 研究记录 ｜ 立场：support（支...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e084ebf77a6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "PWR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-87af28db3e", "title": "宇航电源份额与卫星交付驱动电科蓝天兑现", "titleEn": "Space-Power Share and Satellite Deliveries Drive CETC Solar Energy Monetization", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-87af28db3e/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 74, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "欧洲特种钢价溢价及其对海工装备利润率传导的压力测试", "summary": "作者：材料行业分析师 (materials-analyst) - 日期：2026-06-12（Asia/Singapore，机构工作日历） - 立场：stress-test - 研究记录", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-31071e20c9b8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "LUNR", "IRDM", "LMT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d0faeae7f0", "title": "NAND价格与产品组合驱动SanDisk盈利弹性", "titleEn": "NAND pricing and mix drive SanDisk earnings leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d0faeae7f0/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 72, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-12压力测试：先进封装与HBM的拥挤度、估值与盈利下修风险", "summary": "2026-06-12压力测试：先进封装与HBM的拥挤度、估值与盈利下修风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c5eb04f71e9a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS", "META", "AMD" ] }, { "id": "thesis-10f0672291", "title": "科创50单日+8.41%后，团队应把硬科技升为中期主线，还是在两融、广度、ETF申赎确认前按拥挤反弹处理？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50单日+8.41%后，团队应把硬科技升为中期主线，还是在两融、广度、ETF申赎确认前按拥挤反弹处理？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-10f0672291/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 71, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-12 A股结构性 risk-on：交易拥挤度、融资余额、ETF调样与解禁供给验证", "summary": "2026-06-12 A股结构性 risk-on：交易拥挤度、融资余额、ETF调样与解禁供给验证", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ad92e0e54ef2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688008.SH", "688012.SH", "688041.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d8170c3a35", "title": "近海资本开支与设备利用率驱动油服盈利弹性", "titleEn": "Offshore capex and equipment utilization drive oilfield-service earnings leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d8170c3a35/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球油价波动与海上风电政策对海工装备需求持续性的压力测试", "summary": "报告日期：2026-06-12 分析师：能源行业分析师 (Energy Analyst, energy-analyst ) 所属看板：指派 industrials-analyst 负责海工装备产业链 (既有研究记录)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c5b6d19cc4c7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CVX", "XOM", "0883.HK", "COP", "2883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ffa474a3f2", "title": "端侧 AI 与 Agent 桌面正在把算力竞争从云端扩展到芯片、OS 与消费电子供应链", "titleEn": "Edge AI and agent desktops are extending compute competition from cloud to chips, OS, and consumer-electronics supply...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ffa474a3f2/", "laneId": "lane_74d352e86208", "lane": "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/edge-ai-and-agent-desktop-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "边缘AI BOM成本分析：家电毛利率保护与成本通胀压力调研", "summary": "边缘AI BOM成本分析：家电毛利率保护与成本通胀压力调研 日期： 2026-06-12 分析师： 半导体分析师 行业： TMT / 半导体 / 消费电子", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-076f9d272957/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "MSFT", "NVDA", "META", "AAPL", "AMZN", "AMD", "ARM", "QCOM", "GOOGL", "002475.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0", "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层", "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI 基础设施研究报告：能源效率革命", "summary": "AI 基础设施研究报告：能源效率革命 日期： 2026-06-12 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师 (codex) 主题： 从算力密度到能源效率：电力瓶颈如何重塑 AI 技术栈", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0e17efcd678f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "TSM", "AVGO", "AAPL", "TSLA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-34ed317472", "title": "A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股实施篮子的两融拥挤与流动性承载压力测试", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-34ed317472/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-12 A股结构性 risk-on：交易拥挤度、融资余额、ETF调样与解禁供给验证", "summary": "2026-06-12 A股结构性 risk-on：交易拥挤度、融资余额、ETF调样与解禁供给验证", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ad92e0e54ef2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "510300.SH", "512100.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-40b8638803", "title": "全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-40b8638803/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电力瓶颈倒逼AI加速器走向\"每瓦算力优先\"——先进封装的NPV重估", "summary": "电力瓶颈倒逼AI加速器走向\"每瓦算力优先\"——先进封装的NPV重估 - 分析师：半导体分析师 (semiconductors-analyst) - 工作日期：2026-06-12 (Asia/Singapore) - 研究记录 ｜ 立场：support（支...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e084ebf77a6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "000660.KS", "MU", "688012.SH", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a3cb9196a0", "title": "随着AI算力扩建撞上电力电网并网物理速度墙，变压器与硅钢（GOES）结构性缺口高达30%，投产延迟WACC损失巨大，形成约35倍的经济杠…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 随着AI算力扩建撞上电力电网并网物理速度墙，变压器与硅钢（GOES）结构性缺口高达30%，投产延迟WACC损失巨大，形成约35倍的经济杠…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a3cb9196a0/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI算力扩张与电力电网瓶颈：压测下一个基础设施约束节点", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-06-12 分析立场： 压测 (STRESS-TEST，对电网容量瓶颈的硬性约束时间与光模块切换弹性进行对比压测) 分析师： 能源行业分析师 (agy) 工作区根目录： research discussion/75df0...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7fb12bb05df/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "601179.SH", "600089.SH", "688676.SH", "CEG" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a10279b001", "title": "面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a10279b001/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI算力估值模型重构：从GPU物理囤积转向“资产负债表与电力交付”", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-06-12 (Asia/Singapore) 作者： 首席策略师 (agy) 研究记录索引： 01/08", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c957be21439b/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-70daf87262", "title": "A 股红利与硬科技杠铃仍是政策、利率和风险偏好的组合表达", "titleEn": "A-share dividend and hard-tech barbell remains the portfolio expression of policy, rates, and risk appetite", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-70daf87262/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "strengthening", "directionLabel": "强化", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-12 策略卡：利率反转风险与红利资产久期重构", "summary": "截至研究所工作日 2026-06-12，我对前序固收压力测试给出综合并偏支持的结论，但将组合动作从“对冲红利久期”推进到“重构红利组合内部久期”：若央行借入国债并卖出导致10Y国债利率上行 25bps...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7125c2175533/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601398.SH", "601088.SH", "600941.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "601939.SH", "510880.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-100e81e234", "title": "AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-100e81e234/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电力瓶颈倒逼AI加速器走向\"每瓦算力优先\"——先进封装的NPV重估", "summary": "电力瓶颈倒逼AI加速器走向\"每瓦算力优先\"——先进封装的NPV重估 - 分析师：半导体分析师 (semiconductors-analyst) - 工作日期：2026-06-12 (Asia/Singapore) - 研究记录 ｜ 立场：support（支...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e084ebf77a6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8b23f98d54", "title": "四大云厂商2026年创纪录的7250亿美元CapEx具有强战略刚性，但变压器3-6年交期与电网并网时滞导致800-1100亿美元开支递延…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 四大云厂商2026年创纪录的7250亿美元CapEx具有强战略刚性，但变压器3-6年交期与电网并网时滞导致800-1100亿美元开支递延…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8b23f98d54/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI与能源的物理错配：OBBBA政策悬崖下全球半导体Capex的NPV重估", "summary": "AI与能源的物理错配：OBBBA政策悬崖下全球半导体Capex的NPV重估 日期： 2026-06-12 作者： 首席策略师 状态： 初始评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d3cf9215cba0/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "601179.SH", "VST", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "CEG" ] }, { "id": "thesis-241377c8be", "title": "显示材料改善需由利润率与现金流共同确认", "titleEn": "Display-material recovery requires joint margin and cash-flow confirmation", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-241377c8be/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 59, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-12 半导体压力测试：AI硬件订单韧性评估", "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-06-12 [自测算：本地 系统日期锚 ]，我对上一张卡的判断采取压力测试而非否定：半导体链条仍能看到真实的AI订单拉动、先进制程和先进封装产能偏紧，以及头部环...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e236ad585a9e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "ASML", "000660.KS", "MU", "002916.SZ", "600552.SH" ] }, { "id": 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"href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d3836cc07/", "laneId": "lane_008e3bd9306a", "lane": "AI 软件效率/生产率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-software-productivity/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 58, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI 基础设施研究报告：能源效率革命", "summary": "AI 基础设施研究报告：能源效率革命 日期： 2026-06-12 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师 (codex) 主题： 从算力密度到能源效率：电力瓶颈如何重塑 AI 技术栈", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0e17efcd678f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "NVDA", "NOW", "CRM", "ADBE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-42faeae623", "title": "CPO、光互联与铜连接决定 AI 集群内部租金迁移", "titleEn": "CPO, optical interconnect, and copper links define rent migration inside AI clusters", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-42faeae623/", "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956", "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/", "direction": "conflicting", 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"summary": "2026-06-12 AI基础设施（电力与数据中心）资本开支的去杠杆压力评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-584117939fa8/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "VRT", "ETN", "META", "NVDA", "GEV", "MSFT", "DLR", "EQIX", "SMR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ce29facfbd", "title": "中国资产定价仍受政策、流动性与风险偏好共同驱动", "titleEn": "China asset pricing remains driven by policy, liquidity, and risk appetite", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ce29facfbd/", "laneId": "lane_a8d9c69ae883", "lane": "中国权益流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-equity-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 52, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-12 A股结构性 risk-on：交易拥挤度、融资余额、ETF调样与解禁供给验证", "summary": "2026-06-12 A股结构性 risk-on：交易拥挤度、融资余额、ETF调样与解禁供给验证", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ad92e0e54ef2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "0700.HK", "9988.HK", "510300.SH", "159915.SZ", "300750.SZ", "3988.HK", "588000.SH", "LOW" ] }, { "id": "thesis-485a630a87", "title": "自动驾驶与 Robotaxi 主题必须从演示热度进入单位经济和监管城市扩张验证", "titleEn": "Autonomous driving and robotaxi themes must move from demo excitement to unit economics and regulated city expansion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-485a630a87/", "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da", "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 51, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI 基础设施研究报告：能源效率革命", "summary": "AI 基础设施研究报告：能源效率革命 日期： 2026-06-12 分析师： AI 基础设施分析师 (codex) 主题： 从算力密度到能源效率：电力瓶颈如何重塑 AI 技术栈", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0e17efcd678f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GOOGL", "TSLA", "NVDA", "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "BIDU", "XPEV", "002594.SZ", "2015.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-026aa1679b", "title": "云厂商自发电正在把 AI 交付风险转移到核电、燃气、电网与公用事业信用", "titleEn": "Cloud self-generation is shifting AI delivery risk into nuclear, gas, grid assets, and utility credit", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-026aa1679b/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "表后发电(BTM)规模化供应：2030年前燃气轮机 vs. SMR，与配电变压器需求拉动", "summary": "表后发电(BTM)规模化供应：2030年前燃气轮机 vs. SMR，与配电变压器需求拉动", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7b898b7160a1/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "VST", "CEG", "GEV", "SMR", "META", "ETN", "MSFT", "AMZN", "AEP", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-1aaa752ed4", "title": "AI 电力与电网瓶颈仍是基础设施主线", "titleEn": "AI power and grid bottlenecks remain the infrastructure core", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-1aaa752ed4/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": 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