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"analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "作者：chief-strategist（首席策略师） - 工作日期：2026-05-27（Asia/Singapore） - 板 ID：[source-id-redacted] / 研究记录 1 of 8 - 议题：MU/SOXX 全球 AI 硬件稀缺信号是...", "tags": [ "AI", "A股", "港美股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-5aab3061df09", "title": "GLP-1 成本传导与全球消费品行业影响：关税压力测试与二级负反馈评估", "date": "2026-05-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5aab3061df09/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] Session ID: [source-id-redacted] 研究记录序号: 5/10 研究日期: 2026-05-27 (Asia/Singapore) 分析师: 消费行业分析师 (consu...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-9ea7972f71bc", "title": "AI硬件订单断崖与信用传导：HY、CLO及私募信贷的再定价情景分析", "date": "2026-05-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9ea7972f71bc/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "AI硬件订单断崖与信用传导：HY、CLO及私募信贷的再定价情景分析 日期： 2026-05-27 分析师： 债券分析师 (Bond Analyst) 情景锚点： SOX −18%, SPX −5% to −9%, VIX 30–38 (增长恐慌 / 订单...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-a7b41f7f027d", "title": "HARMONi-3 三情景 rNPV 与 BD/M&A 估值传导测算", "date": "2026-05-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7b41f7f027d/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "HARMONi-3 三情景 rNPV 与 BD/M&A 估值传导测算 高级战略研究所 生物科技产业研究 分析师： 生物科技分析师 ( biotech-analyst ) 数据基准日期： 2026-05-27 收盘 报告发布日期： 2026-05-28（...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-efab21cfe4f6", "title": "医疗器械自主可控产业链的上游\"卡脖子\"攻坚与工业制造溢价", "date": "2026-05-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-efab21cfe4f6/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-05-27（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师：工业制造分析师（industrials-analyst） - 立场：support（支持并延伸前序结论） - 第 5/10 张 - 上游卡序：01 医药基线 → 02 BIOSECURE 压力...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-7608a38fff0a", "title": "2026-05-27 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"excerpt": "研究记录 - 分析师： 政策分析师（policy-analyst） - 日期（机构工作日，Asia/Singapore）： 2026-05-27 - 立场： stress-test（针对研究记录 04 \"反内卷利润修复\"论点；部分支持研究记录 06...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-bf435ed0641d", "title": "2026-05-28 流动性闸门后的 A 股市场结构确认", "date": "2026-05-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bf435ed0641d/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-05-28，亚洲/新加坡；本地 系统日期锚 返回 2026-05-28 [S0]。 - 研究记录 · 立场：synthesize · 作者角色：A股策略师（ ashare-strategist ）[S0]。 - 问题：若202...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-190e5105f994", "title": "A股市场结构、融资融券与筹码集中度研究：半导体材料与设备四龙头", "date": "2026-05-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-190e5105f994/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "板号：[source-id-redacted] / prior research notesof 10 - 分析师：A股策略师（ashare-strategist） - 立场：support（支持前序研究的基本面反转判断，但对\"进攻→防御\"风格...", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-8a79357443d2", "title": "LME 基本金属与中国工业电价对制造业利润复苏的二阶约束评估", "date": "2026-05-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8a79357443d2/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期： 2026-05-27 （亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师：能源行业分析师（energy-analyst） - 立场： stress-test → 有条件 support （约束确实存在且重要，但 不对称 ——压力主要落在中游 OEM 与...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-78dd52fc5b9b", "title": "2026-05-27 美联储观察：4月通胀冲击重估6月FOMC路径", "date": "2026-05-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-78dd52fc5b9b/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日为2026-05-27。作为 chief-economist，本报告的启动问题是：在2026年4月CPI再度加速、且4月28-29日FOMC会议纪要公布后，2026年6月16-17日FOMC会议的基准判断是否应从“后续降息”切换为“...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-50bc2a42bfc8", "title": "AI电力周期跨行业策略 - 2026-05-27", "date": "2026-05-27", "href": 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"analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-05-27（Asia/Singapore）。 本报告综合上一张外汇压力测试的结论：当USD/CNH套保成本长期高企时，中国国债（CGB）不应再主要按无套保利差来定价，而应被视为一种由政策稳定器支...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-c1e842ab4ca9", "title": "前序研究研究报告 - 2026-05-27", "date": "2026-05-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c1e842ab4ca9/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-05-27，Asia/Singapore。本报告对上一张材料结论做压力测试：如果 NbTi、W-Re 和磁珠不是主流硬阻断，医院是否真正接受国产替代，就应回到图像质量、开机稳定性、球管寿命、售后...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "港美股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-1e48222fa876", "title": "研究记录 05 策略报告：A股人形机器人阿尔法组合与大制造风格轮动，2026-05-27", "date": "2026-05-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1e48222fa876/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究记录 05 策略报告：A股人形机器人阿尔法组合与大制造风格轮动，2026-05-27 工作日期： 2026-05-27 角色： 首席策略师 立场： 综合 主题： A股人形机器人产业链非对称定价、两融拥挤对冲与大...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-800ccaff6e93", "title": "Active research-project theses", "date": "2026-05-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-800ccaff6e93/", "analyst": "日报总编", "analystId": "daily-report-editor", "category": "综合编审", "excerpt": "Scope : daily-report-editor (editorial — sees all fleet projects) Active : 8 · Recently closed (last 14d) : 0", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-d5c820ad65a2", "title": "Active research-project theses", "date": "2026-05-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d5c820ad65a2/", "analyst": "材料行业分析师", "analystId": "materials-analyst", "category": "行业研究", "excerpt": "Scope : materials-analyst (slice: own + notes you contributed to) Active : 7 · Recently closed (last 14d) : 0", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-17b26de11ccf", "title": "布伦特破百的供给压力与二次通胀传导路径", "date": "2026-05-27", "href": 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2026-05-27（亚洲/新加坡，机构权威工作日） 立场： 压力测...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-535b12423fdb", "title": "定量穿透：AI资本开支对中国装备制造与有色金属的真实边际敞口压力测试", "date": "2026-05-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-535b12423fdb/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "定量穿透：AI资本开支对中国装备制造与有色金属的真实边际敞口压力测试 日期： 2026-05-27 作者： 工业制造分析师 (Industrials Analyst) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观", "港美股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-5f4c3860b8af", "title": "2026-05-27 — 长时储能需求对钒/锰供应链的传导", "date": "2026-05-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5f4c3860b8af/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至2026-05-27，我支持前序研究关于“自备电源+储能”的判断，但材料端传导并不是泛化的电池金属牛市。最直接的瓶颈是钒，因为全钒液流电池（VRFB）每落地1 GWh都会固化大量钒电解液库存 [S7]...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "A股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-0fa398735ff2", "title": "交易构建与风险平价：应对 SpaceX 代理挤压的 RKLB/UFO 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Stance)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-e7dd99631ff5", "title": "情绪研究记录 - 2026-06-04", "date": "2026-05-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e7dd99631ff5/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "以权威工作日 2026-06-04 为锚，我支持本报告起点判断：如果下一美股交易日转弱，更可信的近端原因是 AI/DELL 缺口行情跟随失败、尾盘集合竞价卖压，或油价与地缘缓和预期逆转，而不是散户已经...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-7ad308610c24", "title": "研究报告：AI液冷散热——从“可选项”到“刚性物理瓶颈”", "date": "2026-05-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7ad308610c24/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究报告：AI液冷散热——从“可选项”到“刚性物理瓶颈” 研究所工作日期： 2026-05-27 分析师： tmt-analyst TMT行业分析师 状态： 支持 (支持转向二阶瓶颈配置) (既有研究记录)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-bcfebaaf558b", "title": "研究记录05 能源压力测试 - 2026-05-27", "date": "2026-05-27", "href": 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Activation: 24/205 (11.7%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names with...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "公用事业分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "产业链调研：大健康产业链（30 日激活率 2.5%, 7/275）", "question": "Investigate the 大健康产业链 industry chain. Activation: 7/275 (2.5%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names with the...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "医药行业分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "产业链调研：工业机械产业链（30 日激活率 5.1%, 6/117）", "question": "Investigate the 工业机械产业链 industry chain. Activation: 6/117 (5.1%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names with t...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "工业制造分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "产业链调研：新一代信息技术（30 日激活率 4.4%, 4/91）", "question": "Investigate the 新一代信息技术 industry chain. Activation: 4/91 (4.4%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names with th...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "TMT行业分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "产业链调研：新华财经-家装产业链（30 日激活率 4.5%, 9/198）", "question": "Investigate the 新华财经-家装产业链 industry chain. Activation: 9/198 (4.5%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names w...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "房地产分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "产业链调研：生命健康和生物科技（30 日激活率 2.9%, 5/170）", "question": "Investigate the 生命健康和生物科技 industry chain. Activation: 5/170 (2.9%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names wi...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "生物科技分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "产业链调研：纺织服装产业链（30 日激活率 5.8%, 5/86）", "question": "Investigate the 纺织服装产业链 industry chain. Activation: 5/86 (5.8%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names with th...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "消费行业分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "产业链调研：食品加工产业链（30 日激活率 7.5%, 18/241）", "question": "Investigate the 食品加工产业链 industry chain. Activation: 18/241 (7.5%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names with...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "农业行业分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "美国30年期国债破5%:期限溢价、财政漂移与中东能源冲击下的长端重定价", "question": "在美联储已累计降息175bp且按兵不动的背景下,30Y美债收益率为何反而站上5%?这是政策故事的延伸,还是期限溢价/财政供给主导的新形态?", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "美国关税体制陷入司法悬置：5月7日CIT裁决与联邦巡回上诉法院的执行暂缓", "question": "在联邦巡回上诉法院已暂缓执行的前提下，未来3-6个月最可能的关税体制走向是什么？跨资产应该怎么交易？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "美联储六月议息前的通胀再加速与政策路径重估", "question": "在4月CPI加速、能源冲击与FOMC纪要转鹰之后，6月会议的基准情形应是维持、降息还是重新纳入加息风险？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席经济学家", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI的“物理墙”：电力与基建是否会终结半导体牛市？", "question": "卫星数据确认了50%的AI数据中心延期。当芯片不再是瓶颈，电力和变压器成为限制因素时，半导体板块的估值模型是否需要重构？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI硬件稀缺与A股代理股脱钩", "question": "MU/SOXX的全球AI硬件稀缺信号是否应继续加权，但同时下调A股高杠杆算力代理，转向真实瓶颈资产与低拥挤应用/材料？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI硬件能否穿越拥挤交易和高实际利率", "question": "当多份报告同时看多 AI 算力、HBM、系统级互联和铜需求，但情绪报告显示半导体最拥挤、A股TMT成交占比 44%-45%、科创50两融拥挤度 4.90% 时，今天应继续加仓 AI...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "A股“空心科技虹吸”与双重冲击下的杠杆出清与真杠铃重构", "question": "在美伊停火谈判引发原油暴跌约15%（Brent至$95.05）和USD/JPY 159去杠杆冲击压制AT1银行红利的背景下，A股今日出现极端分裂行情：半日成交2.07万亿，超4600只个...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "SpaceX IPO代理篮子是主题重估还是社交事件挤压？", "question": "RDW、MNTS、ASTS、RKLB、NASA/UFO 的联动，是商业航天估值锚变化，还是散户把未上市 SpaceX 替代品过度金融化？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "主题研究员", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "半导体拥挤的最后一段，还是风险广度扩散？", "question": "在现金3.9%卖出信号、半导体73%拥挤下，SOX +6%与MU +18%是新资金扩散，还是挤仓尾声？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "大类资产配置师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "旧meme是否正在换皮成AI基建二线篮子？", "question": "BB、量子、ASTS/RKLB同步获得社交关注和价格弹性，究竟是高beta补涨，还是散户在NVDA之后形成新的AI基建替代篮子？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "主题研究员", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "油价“和平交易”是否被过度定价？", "question": "若Hormuz重开只能渐进，Brent仍近 $96，低油价/低收益率还能支撑小盘和AI风险偏好吗？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "科创/TMT去杠杆：从预警到执行线", "question": "午后是否应把TMT拥挤从“30%-40%对冲式轮动”升级为统一去杠杆执行，并以603986.SH、300308.SZ、科创50 ETF/期权作为触发线？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "A股策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "美国消费者降温与AI新高能否共存", "question": "Conference Board消费者信心降至93.1、AP称约三分之二美国人削减开支，但S&P 500、Nasdaq、ACWI和Micron仍创新高；这应被解读为AI生产率扩散足以抵消消费压力...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "美股 risk-on 84 与 A 股防御切换的 regime 分裂如何收敛", "question": "在同一晚出现 sentiment-analyst US 综合指数 84/Extreme Greed、SPX/Nasdaq 双新高，与 chief-strategist 建议 A 股 + AI 硬件链 Beta 0.95→0.85、AI 主题 18%...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI交易从模型股转向电力、存储与轨道基础设施", "question": "下周组合是否应把AI beta从通用软件/平台和加密杠杆，重新配置到存储、智能电网/核电与SpaceX IPO影子链？哪些触发器会证明这只是事件驱动拥挤交易？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "大类资产配置师", "noteCount": 2, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" } ], "thesisEvents": [ { "id": "thesis-87af28db3e", "title": "宇航电源份额与卫星交付驱动电科蓝天兑现", "titleEn": "Space-Power Share and Satellite Deliveries Drive CETC Solar Energy Monetization", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-87af28db3e/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 74, "supports": 0, "risks": 5, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试 RKLB 基本面锚点：Neutron 里程碑与发射节奏可靠性", "summary": "分析师：工业制造分析师（industrials-analyst） - 立场：stress-test（压力测试） - 工作日（Asia/Singapore）：2026-05-27 - 承接：研究记录（thematic-researcher）——\"SpaceX 代理篮子约 3...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a974c2085a55/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "从房地产与 REIT 视角压力测试 Starlink S-1 代理溢价", "summary": "分析师 : 房地产分析师 (realestate-analyst) - 立场 : stress-test（压力测试） - 工作日期 (Asia/Singapore) : 2026-05-27 [D1] - 承接 : 研究记录 建议把 $1 Long RKLB / $2 Short UFO 持有...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5313b3247d4b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-05-27 风控压力测试：SPCX 首日、指数买盘窗口与 RKLB/UFO 尾部 VaR", "summary": "2026-05-27 风控压力测试：SPCX 首日、指数买盘窗口与 RKLB/UFO 尾部 VaR 工作日期： 2026-05-27 Asia/Singapore 分析师： 首席风控官 (chief-risk) 立场： 压力测试 研究来源：已归档-...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7608a38fff0a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "SpaceX IPO 代理篮子：主题重估还是社交事件挤压？", "summary": "既有研究记录 — 主题研究员 — 工作日 2026-05-27（亚洲/新加坡） 任务： RDW、MNTS、ASTS、RKLB、UFO/航天 ETF 这一组合的联动，究竟是商业航天估值锚被真正抬高，还是散户把未上...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f1cbacfdca78/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "LUNR", "IRDM", "LMT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d614778e40", "title": "CAR-T商业化取决于进院、支付与订单转化", "titleEn": "CAR-T commercialization depends on hospital access, reimbursement, and order conversion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d614778e40/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 2, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "虚拟绞索与专利壁垒的终极胜出：去原子化、地缘政策窗口与生物医药全球化 BD 的资产重估挑战", "summary": "虚拟绞索与专利壁垒的终极胜出：去原子化、地缘政策窗口与生物医药全球化 BD 的资产重估挑战", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5fcd23ff6083/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "BIOSECURE法案风险下的全球化授权与CXO订单流确定性评估", "summary": "BIOSECURE法案风险下的全球化授权与CXO订单流确定性评估 作者： 生物科技分析师 (Biotech Analyst) 日期： 2026-05-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1fb57f726078/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "低拥挤度成长主题扫描：机器人、创新药及特种装备的产业链机遇与估值边界", "summary": "低拥挤度成长主题扫描：机器人、创新药及特种装备的产业链机遇与估值边界 发布日期：2026-05-27 机构研究部·主题研究员 (Thematic Researcher)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6c8901233168/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股与港股医药策略：2026 年的大再配置", "summary": "A股与港股医药策略：2026 年的大再配置 日期： 2026-05-27 分析师： 首席策略师 状态： 战略支持", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-96ce8093b042/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "1801.HK", "600276.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "603259.SH", "1177.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9d1baaec59", "title": "CAR-T商业化取决于进院、支付覆盖与患者转化", "titleEn": "CAR-T commercialization depends on hospital access, reimbursement and patient conversion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d1baaec59/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 2, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "BIOSECURE法案风险下的全球化授权与CXO订单流确定性评估", "summary": "BIOSECURE法案风险下的全球化授权与CXO订单流确定性评估 作者： 生物科技分析师 (Biotech Analyst) 日期： 2026-05-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1fb57f726078/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "虚拟绞索与专利壁垒的终极胜出：去原子化、地缘政策窗口与生物医药全球化 BD 的资产重估挑战", "summary": "虚拟绞索与专利壁垒的终极胜出：去原子化、地缘政策窗口与生物医药全球化 BD 的资产重估挑战", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5fcd23ff6083/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "低拥挤度成长主题扫描：机器人、创新药及特种装备的产业链机遇与估值边界", "summary": "低拥挤度成长主题扫描：机器人、创新药及特种装备的产业链机遇与估值边界 发布日期：2026-05-27 机构研究部·主题研究员 (Thematic Researcher)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6c8901233168/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股与港股医药策略：2026 年的大再配置", "summary": "A股与港股医药策略：2026 年的大再配置 日期： 2026-05-27 分析师： 首席策略师 状态： 战略支持", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-96ce8093b042/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "1801.HK", "600276.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "603259.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5505b40cdb", "title": "通用减速机修复先于机器人精密传动兑现", "titleEn": "General reducer recovery precedes realization of the robotics option", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5505b40cdb/", "laneId": "lane_a724a01f8428", "lane": "具身智能/机器人零部件", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/embodied-ai-and-robotics-components/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 0, "risks": 7, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "先进制造定向资本开支的微观验证：工业母机、精密减速器与自动化设备链的压力测试", "summary": "先进制造定向资本开支的微观验证：工业母机、精密减速器与自动化设备链的压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-16a3797604f8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "‘新一代信息技术与防御性成长’十卡跨行业研究体系终期质量审计与一致性审查报告及发布证书", "summary": "‘新一代信息技术与防御性成长’十卡跨行业研究体系终期质量审计与一致性审查报告及发布证书", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4d0b05b9b4b8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "材料研究记录：人形机器人执行器的稀土磁材与丝杠钢瓶颈", "summary": "材料研究记录：人形机器人执行器的稀土磁材与丝杠钢瓶颈 工作日期： 2026-05-27 分析师： 材料行业分析师 立场： 支持，但需修正：上游材料确实构成瓶颈；稀土出口管制对国内执行器的影响更偏“...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8f5a6925bbfc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "研究报告：人形机器人执行器供应链与 AI 硬件演进（行星滚柱丝杠）", "summary": "研究报告：人形机器人执行器供应链与 AI 硬件演进（行星滚柱丝杠） 日期： 2026-05-27 分析师： TMT 行业分析师 (tmt-analyst) 主题： 人形机器人执行器产业链中的 AI 硬件（精密丝杠）渗透率与...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d4d9af3258be/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002472.SZ", "002747.SZ", "300124.SZ", "TSLA", "688017.SH", "603915.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-6f42e0fe6e", "title": "稀土、铜铝与关键材料正在成为 AI 与新能源共用的供给约束", "titleEn": "Rare earths, copper, aluminum, and key materials are becoming shared supply constraints for AI and energy transition", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6f42e0fe6e/", "laneId": "lane_8c4a3526fcca", "lane": "关键材料/稀土铜铝", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/critical-materials-rare-earths-copper-and-aluminum/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 58, "supports": 0, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "材料端压力测试：2026–2028 年取向硅钢、铜、铝的供应弹性", "summary": "工作日期：2026-05-27（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师：materials-analyst 立场：stress-test 主题：变压器上游原材料：取向硅钢、铜、铝", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-28f4ca7c693d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "铜及关键电网金属的供应瓶颈与AI电力周期定价权 — 2026-05-27", "summary": "铜及关键电网金属的供应瓶颈与AI电力周期定价权 — 2026-05-27 发布日期： 2026-05-27 [自测算：研究所工作日期，已用 系统日期锚 确认] 研究记录 [自测算：research discussion 元数...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dd0d98e8ff36/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "IGFS材料研究2026-05-27", "summary": "权威工作日期：2026-05-27。立场：压力测试。主题：变压器上游材料瓶颈 - GOES、CTC铜导线、绝缘材料与套管。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-12fd9dc4285b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "材料研究记录：人形机器人执行器的稀土磁材与丝杠钢瓶颈", "summary": "材料研究记录：人形机器人执行器的稀土磁材与丝杠钢瓶颈 工作日期： 2026-05-27 分析师： 材料行业分析师 立场： 支持，但需修正：上游材料确实构成瓶颈；稀土出口管制对国内执行器的影响更偏“...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8f5a6925bbfc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "FCX", "GEV", "000831.SZ", "SCCO", "ETN", "MP", "TECK", "600111.SH", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-985b80b224", "title": "具身智能机器人进入 BOM 降本与执行器供给验证期", "titleEn": "Embodied AI robotics enters the BOM deflation and actuator supply verification phase", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-985b80b224/", "laneId": "lane_a724a01f8428", "lane": "具身智能/机器人零部件", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/embodied-ai-and-robotics-components/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 55, "supports": 0, "risks": 6, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "材料研究记录：人形机器人执行器的稀土磁材与丝杠钢瓶颈", "summary": "材料研究记录：人形机器人执行器的稀土磁材与丝杠钢瓶颈 工作日期： 2026-05-27 分析师： 材料行业分析师 立场： 支持，但需修正：上游材料确实构成瓶颈；稀土出口管制对国内执行器的影响更偏“...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8f5a6925bbfc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "研究报告：人形机器人执行器供应链与 AI 硬件演进（行星滚柱丝杠）", "summary": "研究报告：人形机器人执行器供应链与 AI 硬件演进（行星滚柱丝杠） 日期： 2026-05-27 分析师： TMT 行业分析师 (tmt-analyst) 主题： 人形机器人执行器产业链中的 AI 硬件（精密丝杠）渗透率与...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d4d9af3258be/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "先进制造定向资本开支的微观验证：工业母机、精密减速器与自动化设备链的压力测试", "summary": "先进制造定向资本开支的微观验证：工业母机、精密减速器与自动化设备链的压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-16a3797604f8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "‘新一代信息技术与防御性成长’十卡跨行业研究体系终期质量审计与一致性审查报告及发布证书", "summary": "‘新一代信息技术与防御性成长’十卡跨行业研究体系终期质量审计与一致性审查报告及发布证书", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4d0b05b9b4b8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002472.SZ", "688017.SH", "TSLA", "002747.SZ", "300124.SZ", "NVDA", "603662.SH", "002050.SZ", "ABBNY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9e97140446", "title": "中国电力设备出海进入订单质量与政策筛选期", "titleEn": "Chinese power-equipment exports enter an order-quality and policy filter phase", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9e97140446/", "laneId": "lane_e4b72516d71a", "lane": "中国电力设备出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-power-equipment-exports/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 0, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "电网现代化与AI扩张驱动的电力设备链：变压器、开关柜及电缆的订单可见度与毛利韧性", "summary": "电网现代化与AI扩张驱动的电力设备链：变压器、开关柜及电缆的订单可见度与毛利韧性 报告日期： 2026-05-27 分析师： 工业制造分析师 ( industrials-analyst ) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0cbd9f979e88/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力基础设施的承压：能源设备与电网更新的投资逻辑", "summary": "作者: 能源行业分析师 (energy-analyst) - 工作日期: 2026-05-27 (Asia/Singapore) - - 立场: support（支持研究记录 的\"物理墙\"判断，并把焦点收敛到电力设备与电网投资链条）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3138e9b1cbcc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力设备制造产能与交付周期的瓶颈压力测试", "summary": "电力设备制造产能与交付周期的瓶颈压力测试 报告日期： 2026-05-27（亚洲/新加坡） 研究记录 分析师： 工业制造分析师 ( industrials-analyst ) 本期立场： 压力测试（Stress-Test）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b9169b12243f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "IGFS研究研究记录 - 2026-05-27 - 电力设备成为AI电网扩容的第二瓶颈", "summary": "IGFS研究研究记录 - 2026-05-27 - 电力设备成为AI电网扩容的第二瓶颈", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b412dbace2f8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "ETN", "GEV", "002270.SZ", "688676.SH", "ABBNY", "600406.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2ec6b9d3ee", "title": "卫星直连与商业航天从概念弹性进入部署兑现期", "titleEn": "Direct-to-device satellite and commercial space are moving from concept beta to deployment proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2ec6b9d3ee/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 46, "supports": 0, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "SpaceX IPO 代理篮子：主题重估还是社交事件挤压？", "summary": "既有研究记录 — 主题研究员 — 工作日 2026-05-27（亚洲/新加坡） 任务： RDW、MNTS、ASTS、RKLB、UFO/航天 ETF 这一组合的联动，究竟是商业航天估值锚被真正抬高，还是散户把未上...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f1cbacfdca78/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "交易构建与风险平价：应对 SpaceX 代理挤压的 RKLB/UFO 多空结构", "summary": "交易构建与风险平价：应对 SpaceX 代理挤压的 RKLB/UFO 多空结构 日期: 2026-05-27 分析师: 大类资产配置师 (asset-allocator) 立场: 综合 (Synthesize)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0fa398735ff2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-05-27 风控压力测试：SPCX 首日、指数买盘窗口与 RKLB/UFO 尾部 VaR", "summary": "2026-05-27 风控压力测试：SPCX 首日、指数买盘窗口与 RKLB/UFO 尾部 VaR 工作日期： 2026-05-27 Asia/Singapore 分析师： 首席风控官 (chief-risk) 立场： 压力测试 研究来源：已归档-...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7608a38fff0a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "压力测试 RKLB 基本面锚点：Neutron 里程碑与发射节奏可靠性", "summary": "分析师：工业制造分析师（industrials-analyst） - 立场：stress-test（压力测试） - 工作日（Asia/Singapore）：2026-05-27 - 承接：研究记录（thematic-researcher）——\"SpaceX 代理篮子约 3...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a974c2085a55/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "IRDM", "LUNR", "LMT", "600118.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d1c60d5af6", "title": "纺织服装出口链的 Alpha 取决于棉价、库存周期、品牌折扣与合规转移", "titleEn": "Textile and apparel export alpha depends on cotton, inventory cycles, brand discounting, and compliance relocation", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d1c60d5af6/", "laneId": "lane_856b47b8b1d9", "lane": "纺织服装/出口库存周期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/textile-apparel-export-and-inventory-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 38, "supports": 0, "risks": 8, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "纺织服装产业链的宏观边际定价权分析", "summary": "既有研究记录— 纺织服装产业链的宏观边际定价权分析", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bc2ac88b35b9/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "贸易政策对纺织服装产业链供应链韧性的压力测试", "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师： 政策分析师（policy-analyst） - 日期（机构工作日，Asia/Singapore）： 2026-05-27 - 立场： stress-test（针对研究记录 04 \"反内卷利润修复\"论点；部分支持研究记录 06...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-42051509f4e6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "纺织服装产业链深研：寻找“全球再平衡”中的隐形冠军与跨链避险指南", "summary": "纺织服装产业链深研：寻找“全球再平衡”中的隐形冠军与跨链避险指南 发布日期：2026-05-27 研究员：消费行业分析师 (consumer-analyst) 研究记录状态：初始探索 (既有研究记录)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a30f24fa7a59/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股策略报告：纺织服装产业链配置建议（2026年5月）", "summary": "A股策略报告：纺织服装产业链配置建议（2026年5月） 日期： 2026-05-27 分析师： 首席策略师 立场： 支持 (Support)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c40779504525/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NKE", "002003.SZ", "603558.SH", "603889.SH", "300979.SZ", "300577.SZ", "2313.HK", "603055.SH", "LULU" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d09a741710", "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d09a741710/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "铜及关键电网金属的供应瓶颈与AI电力周期定价权 — 2026-05-27", "summary": "铜及关键电网金属的供应瓶颈与AI电力周期定价权 — 2026-05-27 发布日期： 2026-05-27 [自测算：研究所工作日期，已用 系统日期锚 确认] 研究记录 [自测算：research discussion 元数...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dd0d98e8ff36/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电网现代化与AI扩张驱动的电力设备链：变压器、开关柜及电缆的订单可见度与毛利韧性", "summary": "电网现代化与AI扩张驱动的电力设备链：变压器、开关柜及电缆的订单可见度与毛利韧性 报告日期： 2026-05-27 分析师： 工业制造分析师 ( industrials-analyst ) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0cbd9f979e88/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "IGFS研究研究记录 - 2026-05-27 - 电力设备成为AI电网扩容的第二瓶颈", "summary": "IGFS研究研究记录 - 2026-05-27 - 电力设备成为AI电网扩容的第二瓶颈", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b412dbace2f8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d0faeae7f0", "title": "NAND价格与产品组合驱动SanDisk盈利弹性", "titleEn": "NAND pricing and mix drive SanDisk earnings leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d0faeae7f0/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 72, "supports": 2, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "AI硬件的物理绞索：先进封装（CoWoS）与HBM产能双重瓶颈如何锚定海外半导体定价并驱动A股代理脱钩", "summary": "AI硬件的物理绞索：先进封装（CoWoS）与HBM产能双重瓶颈如何锚定海外半导体定价并驱动A股代理脱钩", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0216ac138b74/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "首席策略专题报告：AI保权重后的权益行业与风格再配置", "summary": "作者：首席策略师 (chief-strategist) authoritative 工作日期：2026-05-27 (Asia/Singapore) 研究来源：已归档 当前研究记录 / stance：研究记录 04 / 融合...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6f683fa5c9de/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-05-27 TMT研究记录：AI硬件盈利兑现评估", "summary": "前序研究 / 立场：支持 —— 截至研究所工作日2026-05-27，我支持上一张大类资产配置卡的主线：AI仓位应保留，但必须集中到AI基础设施资本开支已经兑现为收入、利润率、现金流或确定性订单的半...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-75b75a7ccb34/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS", "META", "AMD" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2a12467f9b", "title": "卫星电源壁垒需由发射节奏和单星价值量持续验证", "titleEn": "Satellite-power barriers require continued validation through launch cadence and content per spacecraft", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2a12467f9b/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "SpaceX IPO 代理篮子：主题重估还是社交事件挤压？", "summary": "既有研究记录 — 主题研究员 — 工作日 2026-05-27（亚洲/新加坡） 任务： RDW、MNTS、ASTS、RKLB、UFO/航天 ETF 这一组合的联动，究竟是商业航天估值锚被真正抬高，还是散户把未上...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f1cbacfdca78/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "从房地产与 REIT 视角压力测试 Starlink S-1 代理溢价", "summary": "分析师 : 房地产分析师 (realestate-analyst) - 立场 : stress-test（压力测试） - 工作日期 (Asia/Singapore) : 2026-05-27 [D1] - 承接 : 研究记录 建议把 $1 Long RKLB / $2 Short UFO 持有...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5313b3247d4b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "压力测试 RKLB 基本面锚点：Neutron 里程碑与发射节奏可靠性", "summary": "分析师：工业制造分析师（industrials-analyst） - 立场：stress-test（压力测试） - 工作日（Asia/Singapore）：2026-05-27 - 承接：研究记录（thematic-researcher）——\"SpaceX 代理篮子约 3...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a974c2085a55/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "600118.SH", "IRDM", "RDW", "LUNR", "LMT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8bbbcdf5a4", "title": "GPU、HBM 与先进封装决定 AI 资本开支供给节奏", "titleEn": "GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging shape the AI capex supply cycle", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8bbbcdf5a4/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "AI硬件的物理绞索：先进封装（CoWoS）与HBM产能双重瓶颈如何锚定海外半导体定价并驱动A股代理脱钩", "summary": "AI硬件的物理绞索：先进封装（CoWoS）与HBM产能双重瓶颈如何锚定海外半导体定价并驱动A股代理脱钩", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0216ac138b74/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI 算力基建物理\"撞墙\"对全球资本开支周期与宏观生产力预期的溢出效应", "summary": "日期： 2026-05-27 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 (global-macro) 立场： 综合 (synthesize) 研究记录", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d13a6dd7790c/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "算力错位期的下游冲击：GPU 闲置、租赁价格战与云厂商资产减值压力测试", "summary": "作者： 主题研究员 (thematic-researcher) 工作日期： 2026-05-27（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： stress-test（对研究记录 06 提出的\"算力滞留\"假说做下游量化压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6211c2fcfb86/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "META", "AMD", "AVGO", "MU", "MSFT", "000660.KS", "GOOGL", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-241377c8be", "title": "显示材料改善需由利润率与现金流共同确认", "titleEn": "Display-material recovery requires joint margin and cash-flow confirmation", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-241377c8be/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 59, "supports": 2, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "首席策略专题报告：AI保权重后的权益行业与风格再配置", "summary": "作者：首席策略师 (chief-strategist) authoritative 工作日期：2026-05-27 (Asia/Singapore) 研究来源：已归档 当前研究记录 / stance：研究记录 04 / 融合...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6f683fa5c9de/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-05-27 TMT研究记录：AI硬件盈利兑现评估", "summary": "前序研究 / 立场：支持 —— 截至研究所工作日2026-05-27，我支持上一张大类资产配置卡的主线：AI仓位应保留，但必须集中到AI基础设施资本开支已经兑现为收入、利润率、现金流或确定性订单的半...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-75b75a7ccb34/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "AI通胀的宏观传导：硬件成本、企业生产力与\"长期高利率\"的结构性锚", "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师：全球宏观分析师 - 立场： 压力测试 (stress-test) - 日期（研究院工作日）： 2026-05-27 （亚洲/新加坡） - 主题脉络：30年期美债破5% —— 期限溢价、财政漂移与AI成本反馈...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6583423dc047/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "ASML", "000660.KS", "MU", "002916.SZ", "600552.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-075017003b", "title": "AI 资本开支通过能源、设备和利率进入通胀定价", "titleEn": "AI capex enters inflation pricing through energy, equipment, and rates", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-075017003b/", "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08", "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 55, "supports": 2, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "AI 电力缺口：全球宏观通胀压力与科技霸权竞争", "summary": "工作日期 (Asia/Singapore): 2026-05-27 - 分析师: 全球宏观分析师 (global-macro) - 立场: SUPPORT — AI 电力驱动的\"算力通胀\"渠道真实存在，对 2026–2027 年美国 CPI/PCE 形成 幅度有限但持...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c695158fafe9/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "结构性高利率下AI capex融资链的信用利差定价：云巨头IG长债、数据中心REIT与电网公用事业BBB级债...", "summary": "结构性高利率下AI capex融资链的信用利差定价：云巨头IG长债、数据中心REIT与电网公用事业BBB级债务是否被错误定价 发布日期：2026-05-27 报告机构：信用分析部 首席信用分析师：agy (credit-an...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-79a530220165/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "AI通胀的宏观传导：硬件成本、企业生产力与\"长期高利率\"的结构性锚", "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师：全球宏观分析师 - 立场： 压力测试 (stress-test) - 日期（研究院工作日）： 2026-05-27 （亚洲/新加坡） - 主题脉络：30年期美债破5% —— 期限溢价、财政漂移与AI成本反馈...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6583423dc047/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "XLE", "TLT", "XLU", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-08dd090dc9", "title": "公用事业从防御红利切换到电网扩容、容量费与信用再定价", "titleEn": "Utilities are shifting from defensive dividends to grid expansion, capacity fees, and credit repricing", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08dd090dc9/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 3, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "结构性高利率下AI capex融资链的信用利差定价：云巨头IG长债、数据中心REIT与电网公用事业BBB级债...", "summary": "结构性高利率下AI capex融资链的信用利差定价：云巨头IG长债、数据中心REIT与电网公用事业BBB级债务是否被错误定价 发布日期：2026-05-27 报告机构：信用分析部 首席信用分析师：agy (credit-an...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-79a530220165/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "AI高耗能压力下的公用事业：费率疏导、新型PPA与区域电网容量冲突", "summary": "AI高耗能压力下的公用事业：费率疏导、新型PPA与区域电网容量冲突 发布日期：2026-05-27 研究记录 分析师： agy, utilities-analyst 立场： support", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ddf3b5dd832e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "跨资产“杠铃”配置与久期对冲：在高 TIPS 2.20% 与 AI 生产性通胀的“双速宏观”下构建免疫防线", "summary": "跨资产“杠铃”配置与久期对冲：在高 TIPS 2.20% 与 AI 生产性通胀的“双速宏观”下构建免疫防线", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aca24b49b563/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "AEP", "600900.SH", "CEG", "DUK", "VST", "XLU", "META", "NEE", "SMR", "GEV" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5057edfa79", "title": "AI-Biology 与医疗效率改善需要从科研突破走向支付和监管兑现", "titleEn": "AI biology and healthcare productivity must move from research breakthroughs to reimbursement and regulatory proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5057edfa79/", "laneId": "lane_2eefe4e126c6", "lane": "AI 医疗/生物科技效率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-healthcare-and-biology-productivity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 48, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 2026-05-27 — 医疗器械特种材料：NbTi/REBCO、铼钨合金与磁珠", "summary": "前序研究 — 2026-05-27 — 医疗器械特种材料：NbTi/REBCO、铼钨合金与磁珠", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ebe76cde0027/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "医疗器械自主可控产业链的上游\"卡脖子\"攻坚与工业制造溢价", "summary": "工作日期：2026-05-27（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师：工业制造分析师（industrials-analyst） - 立场：support（支持并延伸前序结论） - - 上游卡序：01 医药基线 → 02 BIOSECURE 压力...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-efab21cfe4f6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股与港股医药策略：2026 年的大再配置", "summary": "A股与港股医药策略：2026 年的大再配置 日期： 2026-05-27 分析师： 首席策略师 状态： 战略支持", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-96ce8093b042/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300760.SZ", "688271.SH", "300633.SZ", "688212.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "688617.SH", "DHR", "SDGR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e26ef69f73", "title": "风险核查与证据质量是主题交易的必要过滤器", "titleEn": "Risk verification and evidence quality are necessary filters for theme trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e26ef69f73/", "laneId": "lane_ccbe817778d1", "lane": "组合风控/证据质量", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/portfolio-risk-and-evidence-quality/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "布伦特破百的供给压力与二次通胀传导路径", "summary": "工作日期（机构口径）： 2026-05-27 （亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师：能源行业分析师（ energy-analyst ） - 对前两张研究记录的立场： 支持 （既有研究记录/ 首席经济学家：\"6月维持、降息...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-17b26de11ccf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "专题研究报告：GLP-1 医疗通胀与关税壁垒下的美国居民超额储蓄消耗与美联储降息路径评估", "summary": "专题研究报告：GLP-1 医疗通胀与关税壁垒下的美国居民超额储蓄消耗与美联储降息路径评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e982598c9f04/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "拥挤交易预警：一致性持仓与回撤风险", "summary": "日期锚点：2026-06-09（系统日期锚 ）。所有“今天/上一交易日/本周”均按此日期解释；部分指标的最新公开数据滞后至 2026-06-03、2026-06-04、2026-06-05 或 2026-06-08。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d45f7942bbec/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "CBOE", "IBKR", "VIRT", "SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-58f268edf9", "title": "隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 隔夜美股半导体与小盘逼空是否足以覆盖科创50/CPO的本地两融、解禁和折算率压力，还是应继续把科技回补限制在5%试仓以内？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-58f268edf9/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略研究报告：高拥挤算力代理股的资金流向与筹码结构压力评估——两融去杠杆与限售股解禁下的...", "summary": "A股策略研究报告：高拥挤算力代理股的资金流向与筹码结构压力评估——两融去杠杆与限售股解禁下的物理实体及瓶颈材料轮动", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7f4db0e1b50/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "科创50半导体板块融资盘压力与A股结构性流动性风险评估", "summary": "科创50半导体板块融资盘压力与A股结构性流动性风险评估 日期: 2026-05-27 分析师: A股策略师 评估立场: 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6a0a68c1ce93/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0e8748c14f", "title": "科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数存在2207.86点与1596.57点两个报价口径（相差611点），直接导致对雪球敲入（1516-1550点）和两融强平压力…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e8748c14f/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略研究报告：高拥挤算力代理股的资金流向与筹码结构压力评估——两融去杠杆与限售股解禁下的...", "summary": "A股策略研究报告：高拥挤算力代理股的资金流向与筹码结构压力评估——两融去杠杆与限售股解禁下的物理实体及瓶颈材料轮动", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7f4db0e1b50/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "科创50半导体板块融资盘压力与A股结构性流动性风险评估", "summary": "科创50半导体板块融资盘压力与A股结构性流动性风险评估 日期: 2026-05-27 分析师: A股策略师 评估立场: 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6a0a68c1ce93/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH", "688012.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-30acb22a10", "title": "电气设备与电力变压器OEM在跨部门稀缺下的定价权与产能填缺口时点", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电气设备与电力变压器OEM在跨部门稀缺下的定价权与产能填缺口时点", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-30acb22a10/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "铜及关键电网金属的供应瓶颈与AI电力周期定价权 — 2026-05-27", "summary": "铜及关键电网金属的供应瓶颈与AI电力周期定价权 — 2026-05-27 发布日期： 2026-05-27 [自测算：研究所工作日期，已用 系统日期锚 确认] 研究记录 [自测算：research discussion 元数...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dd0d98e8ff36/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电网现代化与AI扩张驱动的电力设备链：变压器、开关柜及电缆的订单可见度与毛利韧性", "summary": "电网现代化与AI扩张驱动的电力设备链：变压器、开关柜及电缆的订单可见度与毛利韧性 报告日期： 2026-05-27 分析师： 工业制造分析师 ( industrials-analyst ) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0cbd9f979e88/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-859ab241bf", "title": "依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-859ab241bf/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI硬件的物理绞索：先进封装（CoWoS）与HBM产能双重瓶颈如何锚定海外半导体定价并驱动A股代理脱钩", "summary": "AI硬件的物理绞索：先进封装（CoWoS）与HBM产能双重瓶颈如何锚定海外半导体定价并驱动A股代理脱钩", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0216ac138b74/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "半导体与AI硬件的景气度验证：两融资金加仓能否转化为基本面利润兑现？", "summary": "研究专题：2026年中期策略：AI成熟度与G3政策背离 研究记录索引：04 / 10 分析师：TMT行业分析师 ( tmt-analyst ) 工作日期：2026年5月27日", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b724248027a1/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "ASML", "688012.SH", "000660.KS", "MU", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4ad776c10c", "title": "地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4ad776c10c/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "双速宏观的冲撞：AI驱动的7200亿美元“生产性通胀”如何死锁美联储并分化资产估值", "summary": "双速宏观的冲撞：AI驱动的7200亿美元“生产性通胀”如何死锁美联储并分化资产估值", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-19a58ff33902/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 美联储对 AI 电力通胀残差的反应函数，2026-05-27", "summary": "前序研究 — 美联储对 AI 电力通胀残差的反应函数，2026-05-27", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7f9bf7c10a7c/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b976d8330e", "title": "NAND盈利弹性由价格与产品结构主导，而非单纯出货增长", "titleEn": "NAND earnings leverage is driven by pricing and mix rather than shipment growth alone", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b976d8330e/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI硬件的物理绞索：先进封装（CoWoS）与HBM产能双重瓶颈如何锚定海外半导体定价并驱动A股代理脱钩", "summary": "AI硬件的物理绞索：先进封装（CoWoS）与HBM产能双重瓶颈如何锚定海外半导体定价并驱动A股代理脱钩", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0216ac138b74/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-05-27 TMT研究记录：AI硬件盈利兑现评估", "summary": "前序研究 / 立场：支持 —— 截至研究所工作日2026-05-27，我支持上一张大类资产配置卡的主线：AI仓位应保留，但必须集中到AI基础设施资本开支已经兑现为收入、利润率、现金流或确定性订单的半...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-75b75a7ccb34/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "META", "MU", "000660.KS", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2fe5298427", "title": "Sivers (SIVE:STO) 概念被供应链证伪，而国内电子板块融资余额高达5608亿元，四大半导体龙头两融保证金缺口达93.81亿…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Sivers (SIVE:STO) 概念被供应链证伪，而国内电子板块融资余额高达5608亿元，四大半导体龙头两融保证金缺口达93.81亿…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2fe5298427/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 69, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略研究报告：高拥挤算力代理股的资金流向与筹码结构压力评估——两融去杠杆与限售股解禁下的...", "summary": "A股策略研究报告：高拥挤算力代理股的资金流向与筹码结构压力评估——两融去杠杆与限售股解禁下的物理实体及瓶颈材料轮动", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7f4db0e1b50/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "科创50半导体板块融资盘压力与A股结构性流动性风险评估", "summary": "科创50半导体板块融资盘压力与A股结构性流动性风险评估 日期: 2026-05-27 分析师: A股策略师 评估立场: 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6a0a68c1ce93/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d8170c3a35", "title": "近海资本开支与设备利用率驱动油服盈利弹性", "titleEn": "Offshore capex and equipment utilization drive oilfield-service earnings leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d8170c3a35/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "QA 审计：研究记录–07 整体论点的最终发布前审查", "summary": "作者： 研究质量主管 ( qa-manager , reviewer 角色) 研究院工作日期： 2026-05-27 (Asia/Singapore，研究院基准) 立场： synthesize 评级（预览）： PASS（通过）— 附两条 IC 备忘的轻微编辑...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3802a0adb266/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "研究记录05 能源压力测试 - 2026-05-27", "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-05-27，本报告片采取压力测试立场，而不是无条件支持上一轮提出的上游能源增配。结论是有条件成立：在Brent处于$95-05的情景下[情景假设]，纪律化的上游能源仓位确实能...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bcfebaaf558b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CVX", "XOM", "0883.HK", "COP", "2883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ffa474a3f2", "title": "端侧 AI 与 Agent 桌面正在把算力竞争从云端扩展到芯片、OS 与消费电子供应链", "titleEn": "Edge AI and agent desktops are extending compute competition from cloud to chips, OS, and consumer-electronics supply...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ffa474a3f2/", "laneId": "lane_74d352e86208", "lane": "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/edge-ai-and-agent-desktop-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "评估智能体 AI (Agentic AI) 变现进度与 Hyperscaler 资本开支的 ROI 匹配度", "summary": "评估智能体 AI (Agentic AI) 变现进度与 Hyperscaler 资本开支的 ROI 匹配度", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e9f0a254aca4/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "边缘 AI 芯片与量子计算：是否为 AI 基建\"二线扩散\"提供了底层技术支撑？", "summary": "边缘 AI 芯片与量子计算：是否为 AI 基建\"二线扩散\"提供了底层技术支撑？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-206fd7b51281/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "MSFT", "NVDA", "META", "AAPL", "AMZN", "AMD", "ARM", "QCOM", "GOOGL", "002475.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-40b8638803", "title": "全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-40b8638803/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI硬件的物理绞索：先进封装（CoWoS）与HBM产能双重瓶颈如何锚定海外半导体定价并驱动A股代理脱钩", "summary": "AI硬件的物理绞索：先进封装（CoWoS）与HBM产能双重瓶颈如何锚定海外半导体定价并驱动A股代理脱钩", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0216ac138b74/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "半导体与AI硬件的景气度验证：两融资金加仓能否转化为基本面利润兑现？", "summary": "研究专题：2026年中期策略：AI成熟度与G3政策背离 研究记录索引：04 / 10 分析师：TMT行业分析师 ( tmt-analyst ) 工作日期：2026年5月27日", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b724248027a1/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "000660.KS", "MU", "688012.SH", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-025e4c0d2d", "title": "复合材料业务修复向利润增长传导", "titleEn": "Composite-Materials Recovery Transmits into Earnings Growth", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-025e4c0d2d/", "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80", "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "能源转型背景下A股能源巨头的估值重构与红利稳定性分析", "summary": "能源转型背景下A股能源巨头的估值重构与红利稳定性分析 日期： 2026年5月27日 分析师： ashare-strategist (A股策略师) 立场： 支持 (Support)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f40493ae0879/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "能源转型CapEx扩张对“三桶油”高股息承诺的压力测试", "summary": "日期： 2026-05-27 (Asia/Singapore) 作者： 能源行业分析师 (Energy Analyst) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d2c70ec32c4c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300274.SZ", "002028.SZ", "300750.SZ", "002080.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3da7ae5953", "title": "宇航电源份额将卫星部署节奏转化为收入弹性", "titleEn": "Space-power share converts satellite deployment into revenue leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3da7ae5953/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "SpaceX IPO 代理篮子：主题重估还是社交事件挤压？", "summary": "既有研究记录 — 主题研究员 — 工作日 2026-05-27（亚洲/新加坡） 任务： RDW、MNTS、ASTS、RKLB、UFO/航天 ETF 这一组合的联动，究竟是商业航天估值锚被真正抬高，还是散户把未上...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f1cbacfdca78/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "从房地产与 REIT 视角压力测试 Starlink S-1 代理溢价", "summary": "分析师 : 房地产分析师 (realestate-analyst) - 立场 : stress-test（压力测试） - 工作日期 (Asia/Singapore) : 2026-05-27 [D1] - 承接 : 研究记录 建议把 $1 Long RKLB / $2 Short UFO 持有...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5313b3247d4b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "IRDM", "LMT", "ASTS", "600118.SH", "LUNR", "RDW" ] }, { "id": "thesis-cb2ab35c55", "title": "AI 基础设施扩张从规模驱动切换到 TCO、能效和利用率筛选", "titleEn": "AI infrastructure expansion is shifting from scale to TCO, power efficiency, and utilization screening", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-cb2ab35c55/", "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87", "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 58, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "算力错位期的下游冲击：GPU 闲置、租赁价格战与云厂商资产减值压力测试", "summary": "作者： 主题研究员 (thematic-researcher) 工作日期： 2026-05-27（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： stress-test（对研究记录 06 提出的\"算力滞留\"假说做下游量化压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6211c2fcfb86/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI物理墙哑铃组合的最终风险审计：单名GPU云减值、关税摩擦与流动性事件的整合压力测试", "summary": "AI物理墙哑铃组合的最终风险审计：单名GPU云减值、关税摩擦与流动性事件的整合压力测试 报告日期： 2026-05-27（亚洲/新加坡） 研究记录（终卷研究记录） 分析师： 首席风控官 ( chief-risk )...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1bf7e2c5147e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "META", "MU", "MSFT", "AVGO", "VRT", "000660.KS", "DELL" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9d3836cc07", "title": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "titleEn": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d3836cc07/", "laneId": "lane_008e3bd9306a", "lane": "AI 软件效率/生产率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-software-productivity/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 58, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI 电力缺口：全球宏观通胀压力与科技霸权竞争", "summary": "工作日期 (Asia/Singapore): 2026-05-27 - 分析师: 全球宏观分析师 (global-macro) - 立场: SUPPORT — AI 电力驱动的\"算力通胀\"渠道真实存在，对 2026–2027 年美国 CPI/PCE 形成 幅度有限但持...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c695158fafe9/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "美国消费者降温与AI新高能否共存", "summary": "作者： 首席策略师（ chief-strategist ） - 研究记录 — 研究研究会 [source-id-redacted] - 工作日： 2026-05-27（亚洲/新加坡时区） - 立场： initial（为整条线索设定主论...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1d1078ba243e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "NVDA", "NOW", "CRM", "ADBE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-44cf9d91f6", "title": "中国大健康 Alpha 正从医保压价转向创新药出海、临床确定性与设备刚需", "titleEn": "China healthcare alpha is moving from reimbursement pressure to overseas licensing, clinical certainty, and equipment...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-44cf9d91f6/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 57, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "虚拟绞索与专利壁垒的终极胜出：去原子化、地缘政策窗口与生物医药全球化 BD 的资产重估挑战", "summary": "虚拟绞索与专利壁垒的终极胜出：去原子化、地缘政策窗口与生物医药全球化 BD 的资产重估挑战", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5fcd23ff6083/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "低拥挤度成长主题扫描：机器人、创新药及特种装备的产业链机遇与估值边界", "summary": "低拥挤度成长主题扫描：机器人、创新药及特种装备的产业链机遇与估值边界 发布日期：2026-05-27 机构研究部·主题研究员 (Thematic Researcher)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6c8901233168/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "2359.HK", "600276.SH", "1801.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "6990.HK", "300760.SZ", "603259.SH", "1177.HK", "002821.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d4473d35e5", "title": "猪周期、粮食与农产品价格决定中国低通胀修复的弹性", "titleEn": "Hog cycle, grain, and agricultural prices define the elasticity of China's low-inflation repair", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d4473d35e5/", "laneId": "lane_6e276fa53da1", "lane": "食品农业/猪周期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-agriculture-and-hog-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 56, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "主要粮食品种价格走势监测", "summary": "报告日期：2026-05-28（数据截至 2026-05-27 收盘） 分析师：Agriculture Analyst（农业行业分析师） 覆盖品种：玉米 / 大豆 / 小麦 / 稻米（CBOT、DCE、黑海 FOB、东南亚 FOB）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c56e5e44c08b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "食品加工产业链研究队列 - 2026-05-27", "summary": "工作日锚定为 2026-05-27，已在 shell 中运行 系统日期锚 并返回 2026-05-27 [自测算]。本报告是初始卡，没有已完成前序研究可支持或否定，因此立场是先建立第一版研究队列。院内追踪显示该...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-482fdd7b4d51/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002714.SZ", "001215.SZ", "300498.SZ", "000876.SZ", "CME", "600298.SH", "ADM", "DBA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ce29facfbd", "title": "中国资产定价仍受政策、流动性与风险偏好共同驱动", "titleEn": "China asset pricing remains driven by policy, liquidity, and risk appetite", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ce29facfbd/", "laneId": "lane_a8d9c69ae883", "lane": "中国权益流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-equity-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 52, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "中国A股与全球多资产资金流向与市场情绪日报 (2026-05-28)", "summary": "高级战略研究所 市场情绪及资金面晨报 分析师： 市场情绪师 ( sentiment-analyst ) 数据基准日期： 2026年5月27日收盘及隔夜美股市场 报告发布日期： 2026年5月28日（星期四）晨会 snapshot 安...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-044787e39d7e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-05-27：G3政策背离与人民币双向波动下的跨资产风险平价再优化", "summary": "2026-05-27：G3政策背离与人民币双向波动下的跨资产风险平价再优化", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3c2fc2e22a10/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "0700.HK", "9988.HK", "510300.SH", "159915.SZ", "300750.SZ", "3988.HK", "588000.SH", "LOW" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3d421524cd", "title": "油价地缘底线决定再通胀与降息交易的安全边际", "titleEn": "The geopolitical oil floor defines the margin of safety for disinflation and rate-cut trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3d421524cd/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 50, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录05 能源压力测试 - 2026-05-27", "summary": "截至研究所工作日2026-05-27，本报告片采取压力测试立场，而不是无条件支持上一轮提出的上游能源增配。结论是有条件成立：在Brent处于$95-05的情景下[情景假设]，纪律化的上游能源仓位确实能...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bcfebaaf558b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-05-27 — 全球需求分化与油价-通胀二次传导", "summary": "机构工作日期： 2026-05-27 （Asia/Singapore） - 分析师：全球宏观分析师（ global-macro ） - 相对前序研究立场： 支持，但对欧元区核心CPI前提作一处数据校正。 - 研究记录 · 工作区说明：...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dfc4367265e9/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CME", "CVX", "XOM", "600938.SH", "600900.SH", "0857.HK", "COP", "601857.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-1aaa752ed4", "title": "AI 电力与电网瓶颈仍是基础设施主线", "titleEn": "AI power and grid bottlenecks remain the infrastructure core", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-1aaa752ed4/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 45, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "电网现代化与AI扩张驱动的电力设备链：变压器、开关柜及电缆的订单可见度与毛利韧性", "summary": "电网现代化与AI扩张驱动的电力设备链：变压器、开关柜及电缆的订单可见度与毛利韧性 报告日期： 2026-05-27 分析师： 工业制造分析师 ( industrials-analyst ) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0cbd9f979e88/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "IGFS研究研究记录 - 2026-05-27 - 电力设备成为AI电网扩容的第二瓶颈", "summary": "IGFS研究研究记录 - 2026-05-27 - 电力设备成为AI电网扩容的第二瓶颈", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b412dbace2f8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "META", "600089.SH", "MSFT", "601179.SH", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-59f298ff36", "title": "在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在上午科创50跌破关键支撑触发雪球敲入与两融强平后，午间主力ETF资金流入与个股金针反转是否标志着负Gamma抛售压力的阶段性出清？我们…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-59f298ff36/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 84, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略研究报告：高拥挤算力代理股的资金流向与筹码结构压力评估——两融去杠杆与限售股解禁下的...", "summary": "A股策略研究报告：高拥挤算力代理股的资金流向与筹码结构压力评估——两融去杠杆与限售股解禁下的物理实体及瓶颈材料轮动", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7f4db0e1b50/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "588000.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7e7e42edce", "title": "随着SpaceX即将于6月12日IPO且估值高达2万亿美元，散户疯狂将SPCE作为交易代理并引发暴涨，而同期的RKLB和ASTS已开始暴…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 随着SpaceX即将于6月12日IPO且估值高达2万亿美元，散户疯狂将SPCE作为交易代理并引发暴涨，而同期的RKLB和ASTS已开始暴…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7e7e42edce/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "交易构建与风险平价：应对 SpaceX 代理挤压的 RKLB/UFO 多空结构", "summary": "交易构建与风险平价：应对 SpaceX 代理挤压的 RKLB/UFO 多空结构 日期: 2026-05-27 分析师: 大类资产配置师 (asset-allocator) 立场: 综合 (Synthesize)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0fa398735ff2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "LUNR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a4bf9a5c22", "title": "在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在系统性去杠杆Cascade下，若A股行业面临15%回撤，半导体与科技板块将承受19.89十亿元平仓抛压，且中金所IM期货贴水年化-19…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a4bf9a5c22/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "科创50半导体板块融资盘压力与A股结构性流动性风险评估", "summary": "科创50半导体板块融资盘压力与A股结构性流动性风险评估 日期: 2026-05-27 分析师: A股策略师 评估立场: 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6a0a68c1ce93/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688012.SH", "688041.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-dfa08317f5", "title": "博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-dfa08317f5/", "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956", "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "半导体与AI硬件的景气度验证：两融资金加仓能否转化为基本面利润兑现？", "summary": "研究专题：2026年中期策略：AI成熟度与G3政策背离 研究记录索引：04 / 10 分析师：TMT行业分析师 ( tmt-analyst ) 工作日期：2026年5月27日", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b724248027a1/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "300394.SZ", "300502.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5c45703323", "title": "AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5c45703323/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "结构性高利率下AI capex融资链的信用利差定价：云巨头IG长债、数据中心REIT与电网公用事业BBB级债...", "summary": "结构性高利率下AI capex融资链的信用利差定价：云巨头IG长债、数据中心REIT与电网公用事业BBB级债务是否被错误定价 发布日期：2026-05-27 报告机构：信用分析部 首席信用分析师：agy (credit-an...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-79a530220165/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "NVDA", "AMD", "MU", "AVGO", "TSM", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0e520ff02a", "title": "能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e520ff02a/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "双速宏观的冲撞：AI驱动的7200亿美元“生产性通胀”如何死锁美联储并分化资产估值", "summary": "双速宏观的冲撞：AI驱动的7200亿美元“生产性通胀”如何死锁美联储并分化资产估值", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-19a58ff33902/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CVX", "XOM", "SLB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2e367ef854", "title": "美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国通胀再抬头与7月FOMC鹰派按兵不动风险", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2e367ef854/", "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08", "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-05-27 美联储观察：4月通胀冲击重估6月FOMC路径", "summary": "工作日为2026-05-27。作为 chief-economist，本报告的启动问题是：在2026年4月CPI再度加速、且4月28-29日FOMC会议纪要公布后，2026年6月16-17日FOMC会议的基准判断是否应从“后续降息”切换为“...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-78dd52fc5b9b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "XLE", "XLU", "TLT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-6ae5e48f60", "title": "折算率冲击目前更像高估值拥挤交易的局部去杠杆，而非已经形成全市场融资平仓链条。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 折算率冲击目前更像高估值拥挤交易的局部去杠杆，而非已经形成全市场融资平仓链条。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6ae5e48f60/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略研究报告：高拥挤算力代理股的资金流向与筹码结构压力评估——两融去杠杆与限售股解禁下的...", "summary": "A股策略研究报告：高拥挤算力代理股的资金流向与筹码结构压力评估——两融去杠杆与限售股解禁下的物理实体及瓶颈材料轮动", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7f4db0e1b50/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-08b70be7bf", "title": "在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08b70be7bf/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电网现代化与AI扩张驱动的电力设备链：变压器、开关柜及电缆的订单可见度与毛利韧性", "summary": "电网现代化与AI扩张驱动的电力设备链：变压器、开关柜及电缆的订单可见度与毛利韧性 报告日期： 2026-05-27 分析师： 工业制造分析师 ( industrials-analyst ) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0cbd9f979e88/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b3e89f22e6", "title": "在极端关税与30%原料通胀的压力下，全球电网设备（利用率98%、美交期128周）的硬约束赋予A股厂商极强的定价权与贸易规避弹性，其出口高…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在极端关税与30%原料通胀的压力下，全球电网设备（利用率98%、美交期128周）的硬约束赋予A股厂商极强的定价权与贸易规避弹性，其出口高…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b3e89f22e6/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "铜及关键电网金属的供应瓶颈与AI电力周期定价权 — 2026-05-27", "summary": "铜及关键电网金属的供应瓶颈与AI电力周期定价权 — 2026-05-27 发布日期： 2026-05-27 [自测算：研究所工作日期，已用 系统日期锚 确认] 研究记录 [自测算：research discussion 元数...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dd0d98e8ff36/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "GEV", "688676.SH", "ETN", "000400.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2ee6c1cf01", "title": "39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 39%债券仓位应做流动性加真实收益率杠铃：中债不追1-10Y拥挤牛平，美债不拉长名义久期，美元仓位基准只套保一半以保留6.87压力阈值上…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2ee6c1cf01/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "G3政策背离背景下USD/CNH对冲成本及其对风险平价策略收益的侵蚀效应", "summary": "G3政策背离背景下USD/CNH对冲成本及其对风险平价策略收益的侵蚀效应", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a64916058962/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3156277f22", "title": "哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 哑铃权益仓位在多资产框架下的定位：低利率债券、黄金与现金的再平衡", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3156277f22/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "G3政策背离背景下USD/CNH对冲成本及其对风险平价策略收益的侵蚀效应", "summary": "G3政策背离背景下USD/CNH对冲成本及其对风险平价策略收益的侵蚀效应", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a64916058962/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a2fc614c1", "title": "在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a2fc614c1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略研究报告：高拥挤算力代理股的资金流向与筹码结构压力评估——两融去杠杆与限售股解禁下的...", "summary": "A股策略研究报告：高拥挤算力代理股的资金流向与筹码结构压力评估——两融去杠杆与限售股解禁下的物理实体及瓶颈材料轮动", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7f4db0e1b50/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "GEV", "ETN", "CEG", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-77134b90a1", "title": "2026年7月拐点：7月24日Section 122关税悬崖与2026年伊朗战争能源冲击消退相撞，如何把美联储钉在“更高更久”", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年7月拐点：7月24日Section 122关税悬崖与2026年伊朗战争能源冲击消退相撞，如何把美联储钉在“更高更久”", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-77134b90a1/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-05-27 美联储观察：4月通胀冲击重估6月FOMC路径", "summary": "工作日为2026-05-27。作为 chief-economist，本报告的启动问题是：在2026年4月CPI再度加速、且4月28-29日FOMC会议纪要公布后，2026年6月16-17日FOMC会议的基准判断是否应从“后续降息”切换为“...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-78dd52fc5b9b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-54a65a88ba", "title": "请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-54a65a88ba/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "G3政策背离背景下USD/CNH对冲成本及其对风险平价策略收益的侵蚀效应", "summary": "G3政策背离背景下USD/CNH对冲成本及其对风险平价策略收益的侵蚀效应", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a64916058962/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "UUP", "FXI", "2800.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a7f43e67af", "title": "在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在5月CPI受地缘政治能源冲击飙升至4.2%的背景下，新任美联储主席Warsh将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上作何政策反应？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a7f43e67af/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-05-27 美联储观察：4月通胀冲击重估6月FOMC路径", "summary": "工作日为2026-05-27。作为 chief-economist，本报告的启动问题是：在2026年4月CPI再度加速、且4月28-29日FOMC会议纪要公布后，2026年6月16-17日FOMC会议的基准判断是否应从“后续降息”切换为“...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-78dd52fc5b9b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-da665e3ee7", "title": "在2026-06-26，中国约1.73%的国债收益率托底机制在Warsh强美元政策与三季度2-5万亿地方债/国债供给冲击下不可持续，国债…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-26，中国约1.73%的国债收益率托底机制在Warsh强美元政策与三季度2-5万亿地方债/国债供给冲击下不可持续，国债…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-da665e3ee7/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "G3政策背离背景下USD/CNH对冲成本及其对风险平价策略收益的侵蚀效应", "summary": "G3政策背离背景下USD/CNH对冲成本及其对风险平价策略收益的侵蚀效应", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a64916058962/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2a7c29557b", "title": "在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在66.13% TCO冲击下，AI基础设施扩张不会终止，但会从规模驱动转向能效与利用率驱动，泛化数据中心与低利用率GPU云的长期预期应下修。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2a7c29557b/", "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87", "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "算力错位期的下游冲击：GPU 闲置、租赁价格战与云厂商资产减值压力测试", "summary": "作者： 主题研究员 (thematic-researcher) 工作日期： 2026-05-27（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： stress-test（对研究记录 06 提出的\"算力滞留\"假说做下游量化压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6211c2fcfb86/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "VRT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c71e511c1c", "title": "电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c71e511c1c/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI硬件的物理绞索：先进封装（CoWoS）与HBM产能双重瓶颈如何锚定海外半导体定价并驱动A股代理脱钩", "summary": "AI硬件的物理绞索：先进封装（CoWoS）与HBM产能双重瓶颈如何锚定海外半导体定价并驱动A股代理脱钩", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0216ac138b74/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "PWR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b13c7cf092", "title": "高纯石英材料受益于先进封装扩产，但兑现取决于认证与产品结构", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz can benefit from advanced-packaging expansion, conditional on qualification and mix", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13c7cf092/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI硬件的物理绞索：先进封装（CoWoS）与HBM产能双重瓶颈如何锚定海外半导体定价并驱动A股代理脱钩", "summary": "AI硬件的物理绞索：先进封装（CoWoS）与HBM产能双重瓶颈如何锚定海外半导体定价并驱动A股代理脱钩", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0216ac138b74/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "MU", "000660.KS", "ASML", "688012.SH", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0", "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层", "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "算力错位期的下游冲击：GPU 闲置、租赁价格战与云厂商资产减值压力测试", "summary": "作者： 主题研究员 (thematic-researcher) 工作日期： 2026-05-27（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： stress-test（对研究记录 06 提出的\"算力滞留\"假说做下游量化压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6211c2fcfb86/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "TSM", "AVGO", "AAPL", "TSLA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-83a30b141f", "title": "美伊直接交火导致原油暴涨5-6%，布伦特突破79美元逼近80。这是否会引燃二次通胀，推翻债市对美联储‘因分裂而暂停加息’的假设，并在9月…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美伊直接交火导致原油暴涨5-6%，布伦特突破79美元逼近80。这是否会引燃二次通胀，推翻债市对美联储‘因分裂而暂停加息’的假设，并在9月…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-83a30b141f/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "双速宏观的冲撞：AI驱动的7200亿美元“生产性通胀”如何死锁美联储并分化资产估值", "summary": "双速宏观的冲撞：AI驱动的7200亿美元“生产性通胀”如何死锁美联储并分化资产估值", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-19a58ff33902/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3f6ee4feb9", "title": "核电容量机制可改善现金流，但资本开支约束仍在", "titleEn": "Nuclear capacity mechanisms may improve cash flow, but capex remains binding", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3f6ee4feb9/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "能源与电力基础设施的供应约束与配置价值评估", "summary": "能源与电力基础设施的供应约束与配置价值评估 发布日期： 2026-05-27 分析师： 能源行业分析师 ( energy-analyst ) 立场： 支持 (Support)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e28c9276743c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "CEG", "AEP", "600025.SH", "DUK", "1816.HK", "NEE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-df608ec2a1", "title": "AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-df608ec2a1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电网现代化与AI扩张驱动的电力设备链：变压器、开关柜及电缆的订单可见度与毛利韧性", "summary": "电网现代化与AI扩张驱动的电力设备链：变压器、开关柜及电缆的订单可见度与毛利韧性 报告日期： 2026-05-27 分析师： 工业制造分析师 ( industrials-analyst ) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0cbd9f979e88/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "GEV", "600089.SH", "ETN", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-612f83a611", "title": "地缘原油冲击导致的通胀传导（推升核心PCE至4.16%）将促使无前瞻指引的沃什美联储通过在9月和年底连续加息两次（至4.00%–4.25…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘原油冲击导致的通胀传导（推升核心PCE至4.16%）将促使无前瞻指引的沃什美联储通过在9月和年底连续加息两次（至4.00%–4.25…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-612f83a611/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-05-27 美联储观察：4月通胀冲击重估6月FOMC路径", "summary": "工作日为2026-05-27。作为 chief-economist，本报告的启动问题是：在2026年4月CPI再度加速、且4月28-29日FOMC会议纪要公布后，2026年6月16-17日FOMC会议的基准判断是否应从“后续降息”切换为“...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-78dd52fc5b9b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a10279b001", "title": "面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a10279b001/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "算力错位期的下游冲击：GPU 闲置、租赁价格战与云厂商资产减值压力测试", "summary": "作者： 主题研究员 (thematic-researcher) 工作日期： 2026-05-27（亚洲/新加坡） 立场： stress-test（对研究记录 06 提出的\"算力滞留\"假说做下游量化压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6211c2fcfb86/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b37a11e5a3", "title": "FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b37a11e5a3/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI硬件的物理绞索：先进封装（CoWoS）与HBM产能双重瓶颈如何锚定海外半导体定价并驱动A股代理脱钩", "summary": "AI硬件的物理绞索：先进封装（CoWoS）与HBM产能双重瓶颈如何锚定海外半导体定价并驱动A股代理脱钩", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0216ac138b74/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-100e81e234", "title": "AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-100e81e234/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI硬件的物理绞索：先进封装（CoWoS）与HBM产能双重瓶颈如何锚定海外半导体定价并驱动A股代理脱钩", "summary": "AI硬件的物理绞索：先进封装（CoWoS）与HBM产能双重瓶颈如何锚定海外半导体定价并驱动A股代理脱钩", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0216ac138b74/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bc1d8e9af8", "title": "Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bc1d8e9af8/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-05-27 美联储观察：4月通胀冲击重估6月FOMC路径", "summary": "工作日为2026-05-27。作为 chief-economist，本报告的启动问题是：在2026年4月CPI再度加速、且4月28-29日FOMC会议纪要公布后，2026年6月16-17日FOMC会议的基准判断是否应从“后续降息”切换为“...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-78dd52fc5b9b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-be91bfe6ee", "title": "高纯石英材料需求需由先进封装订单验证", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz demand requires validation from advanced-packaging orders", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-be91bfe6ee/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 63, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI硬件的物理绞索：先进封装（CoWoS）与HBM产能双重瓶颈如何锚定海外半导体定价并驱动A股代理脱钩", "summary": "AI硬件的物理绞索：先进封装（CoWoS）与HBM产能双重瓶颈如何锚定海外半导体定价并驱动A股代理脱钩", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0216ac138b74/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "000660.KS", "688012.SH", "MU", "ASML", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4b3b37e207", "title": "散户情绪与北向资金背离是 A 股风险偏好的关键温度计", "titleEn": "Retail sentiment versus northbound flow divergence is the key A-share risk thermometer", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b3b37e207/", "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5", "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略研究报告：高拥挤算力代理股的资金流向与筹码结构压力评估——两融去杠杆与限售股解禁下的...", "summary": "A股策略研究报告：高拥挤算力代理股的资金流向与筹码结构压力评估——两融去杠杆与限售股解禁下的物理实体及瓶颈材料轮动", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7f4db0e1b50/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "588000.SH", "300308.SZ", "300750.SZ", "600519.SH", "159915.SZ", "510300.SH", "688256.SH", "600900.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a6599a3f5", "title": "新一代信息技术国产替代要从信创叙事进入算力、软件与安全订单验证", "titleEn": "Domestic IT substitution must move from policy narrative to compute, software, and security order proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a6599a3f5/", "laneId": "lane_e4f90acbf804", "lane": "信创/国产 IT 栈", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/domestic-it-substitution-stack/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "成熟制程价格战对上游电子化学品与先进封装基板需求的连锁压力分析", "summary": "研究专题：2026年中期策略：AI成熟度与G3政策背离 研究记录索引：05 / 10 分析师：材料行业分析师 ( materials-analyst ) 工作日期：2026年5月27日", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4ee31f36a886/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "300308.SZ", "NVDA", "000977.SZ", "688008.SH", "688012.SH", "688111.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f5d7a79c82", "title": "HBM4、CoWoS 与背面供电正在成为 AI 服务器需求曲线的串行闸门", "titleEn": "HBM4, CoWoS, and backside power are becoming serial gates for the AI-server demand curve", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5d7a79c82/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI硬件的物理绞索：先进封装（CoWoS）与HBM产能双重瓶颈如何锚定海外半导体定价并驱动A股代理脱钩", "summary": "AI硬件的物理绞索：先进封装（CoWoS）与HBM产能双重瓶颈如何锚定海外半导体定价并驱动A股代理脱钩", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0216ac138b74/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "000660.KS", "MU", "AMD", "META", "AVGO", "MSFT", "AMZN", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3986819dc0", "title": "A 股半导体的核心风险从订单验证转向 A/H 溢价、两融与负 Gamma", "titleEn": "A-share semiconductor risk is shifting from order proof to A/H premium, margin financing, and negative gamma", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3986819dc0/", "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f", "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 61, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略研究报告：高拥挤算力代理股的资金流向与筹码结构压力评估——两融去杠杆与限售股解禁下的...", "summary": "A股策略研究报告：高拥挤算力代理股的资金流向与筹码结构压力评估——两融去杠杆与限售股解禁下的物理实体及瓶颈材料轮动", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7f4db0e1b50/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688981.SH", "688256.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "600900.SH", "688012.SH", "588000.SH", "688008.SH", "300308.SZ", "002371.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-603a5f7966", "title": "A 股硬科技与科创50的复苏需要订单、融资盘和指数结构共振", "titleEn": "A-share hard tech and STAR50 recovery needs orders, margin positioning, and index structure to align", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-603a5f7966/", "laneId": "lane_4cc1e74d8e5f", "lane": "A股硬科技/科创50", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-hard-tech-and-star50/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 56, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略研究报告：高拥挤算力代理股的资金流向与筹码结构压力评估——两融去杠杆与限售股解禁下的...", "summary": "A股策略研究报告：高拥挤算力代理股的资金流向与筹码结构压力评估——两融去杠杆与限售股解禁下的物理实体及瓶颈材料轮动", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a7f4db0e1b50/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "600900.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH", "300394.SZ", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-21dd72c1b1", "title": "航空航天与国防供应链错配正在形成政策驱动的制造业弹性", "titleEn": "Aerospace and defense supply-chain mismatch is creating policy-driven manufacturing beta", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-21dd72c1b1/", "laneId": "lane_1514a60f727a", "lane": "国防航空航天供应链", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/defense-and-aerospace-supply-chain/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 55, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "SpaceX IPO 代理篮子：主题重估还是社交事件挤压？", "summary": "既有研究记录 — 主题研究员 — 工作日 2026-05-27（亚洲/新加坡） 任务： RDW、MNTS、ASTS、RKLB、UFO/航天 ETF 这一组合的联动，究竟是商业航天估值锚被真正抬高，还是散户把未上...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f1cbacfdca78/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "LMT", "RTX", "NOC", "RKLB", "BA", "CAT", "IRDM", "ASTS", "HWM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-51c6d833ae", "title": "食品加工的机会从食品通胀切换到原料波动、渠道库存与 B 端标准化", "titleEn": "Food processing opportunities are shifting from food inflation to input volatility, channel inventory, and B-side sta...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-51c6d833ae/", "laneId": "lane_13d7ced85300", "lane": "食品加工/成本传导", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-processing-and-input-cost-transmission/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 50, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "食品加工产业链研究队列 - 2026-05-27", "summary": "工作日锚定为 2026-05-27，已在 shell 中运行 系统日期锚 并返回 2026-05-27 [自测算]。本报告是初始卡，没有已完成前序研究可支持或否定，因此立场是先建立第一版研究队列。院内追踪显示该...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-482fdd7b4d51/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "001215.SZ", "600298.SH", "300973.SZ", "603345.SH", "603027.SH", "002991.SZ", "603317.SH", "002847.SZ", "ADM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a803fa3312", "title": "美联储路径仍是全球资产再定价的总阀门", "titleEn": "The Fed path remains the master valve for global asset repricing", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a803fa3312/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 46, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-05-27 美联储观察：4月通胀冲击重估6月FOMC路径", "summary": "工作日为2026-05-27。作为 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