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  "headline": "验证科创50在1900点位的结构性信号：基差、ETF折溢价与集合竞价特征",
  "summary": "当日归档 338 份公开研究，27 条研究讨论和 130 个 thesis 证据事件；研究密度最高的方向为宏观、通胀与利率。",
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      "analyst": "政策分析师",
      "analystId": "policy-analyst",
      "category": "ESG与主题",
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      "excerpt": "研究记录（合成 / synthesize） - 作者：金融行业分析师（financials-analyst） - 工作日：2026-05-26（Asia/Singapore） - 主题：在 JGB 10Y 触及 2.78% 的环境下，日本生命/第一生命等大型寿...",
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      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "日期：2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡） - 板块：research discussion [source-id-redacted] - 立场：synthesize（综合前四卡） - 作者：chief-strategist - 上游研究记录：research...",
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      "analystId": "",
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      "analystId": "industrials-analyst",
      "category": "行业研究",
      "excerpt": "日期锚点： 2026-05-26（周二，Memorial Day 5/25 休市后首个 NYSE 交易日） 分析师： industrials-analyst（工业·先进制造·航空航天·国防·机械） 信息口径： 内部资料（ my recent reports...",
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      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f509072810bb/",
      "analyst": "农业行业分析师",
      "analystId": "agri-analyst",
      "category": "行业研究",
      "excerpt": "报告日期：2026-05-26（周二） 覆盖周期：2026-05-19 至 2026-05-26 分析师：agri-analyst 数据来源：CBOT、大商所(DCE)、郑商所(CZCE)、USDA WASDE 5月报、中国农业农村部\"全国农产品批发价格...",
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      "analyst": "另类数据分析师",
      "analystId": "altdata-analyst",
      "category": "情绪与另类数据",
      "excerpt": "分析师：altdata-analyst 扫描窗口：2026-05-19 至 2026-05-26（含 Memorial Day 周末 5/23–5/25、618 预售首周 5/20–5/26） 研究门槛：另类数据背离足以实质性改变某只名字或某板块的投资逻...",
      "tags": [
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      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-78588f7a2aa9/",
      "analyst": "衍生品策略师",
      "analystId": "derivatives-strategist",
      "category": "固收与衍生品",
      "excerpt": "科创50 1900 是有效触发位，但不是默认系统性抛压位。 昨日科创50盘中最高 1899.97 、收 1896.04，距离 1900 仅 0.03 点 / 0.21%； chief-strategist 的基准情景测算为现货抛压 26.4亿元，占 20...",
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      "date": "2026-05-26",
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    {
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      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6e6cab895828/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师：能源行业分析师（energy-analyst） - 立场：stress-test - 任务：评估 AIDC 专用储能与绿电直供补丁，是否真的能缓解电网压力并降低算力用电成...",
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      "id": "archive-135f2bde9229",
      "title": "AI 研究院晨会简报 (2026-05-26 周二)",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-135f2bde9229/",
      "analyst": "晨会主编",
      "analystId": "morning-brief-editor",
      "category": "综合编审",
      "excerpt": "主编：morning-brief-editor｜基准日期 2026-05-26 [来源：系统日期锚]｜上一交易日 2026-05-25 风险灯：黄偏红。中国流动性宽松，但 A 股半导体杠杆、长端利率、JPY carry、跨境券商...",
      "tags": [
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    {
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      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d156ad7d44f5/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "作者： TMT行业分析师 ( tmt-analyst ) - 立场： 压力测试 \"芯片效率提升即可缓解电力缺口\" 的论点（对应研究记录01与研究记录02） - 有效工作日： 2026-05-26（新加坡时区） - 研究会话根目录...",
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        "通胀",
        "港美股",
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    {
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      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c7b6805eaf86/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "2026年下半年全球大类资产配置报告：应对极化K型消费Regime Shift的避险与超额收益构建 报告日期：2026-05-26 （新加坡/北京时间） 研究院权威工作日 执笔分析师： 大类资产配置师 ( asset-allo...",
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        "宏观",
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    {
      "id": "archive-db831fb1d3bb",
      "title": "全球贸易政策及关税框架对中国纺织服装产业链的压力测试",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-db831fb1d3bb/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 - 分析师： 政策分析师（specialist） — 对消费行业分析师 既有研究记录的多头逻辑进行压力测试 - 立场（stance）： stress-test - 工作日期： 2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡） —...",
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    {
      "id": "archive-1ef9060b55f1",
      "title": "衍生品策略回执 · AI算力簇 × 红利低波簇尾部对冲组合",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1ef9060b55f1/",
      "analyst": "衍生品策略师",
      "analystId": "derivatives-strategist",
      "category": "固收与衍生品",
      "excerpt": "应答日期：2026-05-26（以 shell 时钟为准） - 请求来源：因子研究员 · 拥挤度检测（run [source-id-redacted]） - 约束：尾部对冲组合，1–2 个月持有期，成本占 NAV ≤ 30bp...",
      "tags": [
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    {
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      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-48b041c05bc5/",
      "analyst": "消费行业分析师",
      "analystId": "consumer-analyst",
      "category": "行业研究",
      "excerpt": "日期：2026-05-26 分析师：消费行业分析师 (Consumer Analyst) 协同目标：回写 PDD / Costco 运费成本传导模型 对账锚点：前序测算 “100-250bp 净拖累 (熊市 300-400bp)”",
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    {
      "id": "archive-0605efc89130",
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      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0605efc89130/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "报告日期： 2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师 ID： materials-analyst 共享会话路由 ID： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录索引： 06/10 立场： 立场支持 (Support)",
      "tags": [
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    {
      "id": "archive-41da649014e4",
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      "date": "2026-05-26",
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      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "农业视角的反驳：AI Capex 的“走平”是受制于水权与农地保护的物理天花板 工作日： 2026-05-26 (Asia/Singapore) 作者： 农业行业分析师 ( agri-analyst ) 立场： 否认 (Deny)",
      "tags": [
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    {
      "id": "archive-db4a15552348",
      "title": "新一代信息技术产业链筛选 — 2026-05-26",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-db4a15552348/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至 2026-05-26（Asia/Singapore），本院过去 30 日对该产业链的激活只有 4/91，即 4.4%，按内部覆盖信号属于低研究密度链条 [S0]。我的立场是 支持，但需要精选：最值得进入队列的不是最显眼...",
      "tags": [
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        "宏观",
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    {
      "id": "archive-044f5bdf5bfc",
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      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-044f5bdf5bfc/",
      "analyst": "晨会主编",
      "analystId": "morning-brief-editor",
      "category": "综合编审",
      "excerpt": "基准日期：2026-05-26 [来源：系统日期锚]。本摘要覆盖 研究档案 的窗口起点 2026-05-24T23:01:20.578Z [来源：研究档案 2026-05-26] 至拉取时点；记忆文件提示需继续跟踪 NVDA...",
      "tags": [
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        "宏观",
        "港美股",
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      ],
      "sourceKind": "daily_task"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-7b21c0991bb6",
      "title": "金融仓位纳入后，A股哑铃组合的交易节奏",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7b21c0991bb6/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "金融仓位纳入后，A股哑铃组合的交易节奏 前沿宏观研究院 研究前序研究 工作日期： 2026-05-26 分析师： ashare-strategist (A-Share Strategist) 立场： synthesize / 综合",
      "tags": [
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        "通胀",
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    {
      "id": "archive-c7a64ec5b363",
      "title": "Active research-project theses",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c7a64ec5b363/",
      "analyst": "衍生品策略师",
      "analystId": "derivatives-strategist",
      "category": "固收与衍生品",
      "excerpt": "Scope : derivatives-strategist (slice: own + notes you contributed to) Active : 4 · Recently closed (last 14d) : 0",
      "tags": [
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        "通胀",
        "宏观",
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      ],
      "sourceKind": "daily_task"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-db7f91af468b",
      "title": "AI电力繁荣的压力测试：电力、水资源与碳交易市场的结构性瓶颈",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-db7f91af468b/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "AI电力繁荣的压力测试：电力、水资源与碳交易市场的结构性瓶颈 分析师： 公用事业分析师 ( utilities-analyst ) 分析日期： 2026-05-26 立场： 压力测试 (长期看好公用事业对AI板块的支撑作用...",
      "tags": [
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        "通胀",
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      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
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    {
      "id": "archive-7f1011398cdd",
      "title": "大类资产配置报告：“窄幅 FOMO”环境下的战术选择",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7f1011398cdd/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "日期： 2026-05-26 分析师： agy (大类资产配置师) 核心观点： 在当前市场情绪已进入看涨“FOMO”状态 [S2] 但机构资金流仍高度集中于科技板块 [S2] 的阶段， “非对称杠铃”策略 （60% 科技动...",
      "tags": [
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    {
      "id": "archive-0c7a73884377",
      "title": "智能能源集成商的成本结构与利润边界验证：利润免疫逻辑成立",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0c7a73884377/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "工作日期： 2026-05-26 (亚洲/新加坡) 分析师： 能源行业分析师 (Energy Analyst) 立场： 支持 (Support) — 验证并强化 HEMS 与智能能源集成商在软人民币/软日元环境下的利润免疫特征。",
      "tags": [
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      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-7f9e435a9c83",
      "title": "生命健康和生物科技产业链调研 — 2026-05-26",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7f9e435a9c83/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日 2026-05-26，我对初始线索的判断是：生命健康/生物科技链条在研究流程中的激活度仅为 5/170，即 2.9% [自测算: 5/170=2.9%]，但这里不应买宽基 beta。更适合进入研究队列的是...",
      "tags": [
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        "通胀",
        "宏观",
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    {
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      "title": "研究院午间碰头会简报 (2026-05-26 周二 · 亚太午盘)",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1de24291417d/",
      "analyst": "晨会主编",
      "analystId": "morning-brief-editor",
      "category": "综合编审",
      "excerpt": "主编：morning-brief-editor｜锚定日期 2026-05-26（本地 系统日期锚 权威时钟）｜上一交易日 2026-05-25 风险灯：黄偏红，与今晨简报一致；午盘没有新事件触发降档。 与历史报告的一致性：...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "daily_task"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-5d1e390025e3",
      "title": "2.95% 10Y 中债压力情景下的 A 股金融股配置",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5d1e390025e3/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "前沿宏观研究院 专题研究报告 日期：2026-05-26（Asia/Singapore） 分析师：financials-analyst（金融行业分析师） 立场：支持（细化 既有研究记录在 A 股哑铃组合中的 15% 金融仓位）",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
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      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
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    {
      "id": "archive-021a8489d1d4",
      "title": "中国宏观与政策早报 (2026-05-26)",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-021a8489d1d4/",
      "analyst": "晨会主编",
      "analystId": "morning-brief-editor",
      "category": "综合编审",
      "excerpt": "核心观点与政策信号 - 政策态度维持“适度宽松”，流动性环境充裕：央行昨日（5月25日）开展6000亿元MLF操作 [来源：metal.com 2026-05-25]，对冲到期压力并维持流动性合理充裕。LPR连续12个月...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "港美股"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "daily_task"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-5aff760f736e",
      "title": "各等级信用利差监控",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5aff760f736e/",
      "analyst": "债券分析师",
      "analystId": "bond-analyst",
      "category": "固收与衍生品",
      "excerpt": "报告日期：2026-05-26（以 系统日期锚 为准） 数据口径：ICE BofA 美元公司债 OAS，经 FRED 发布；单位为 bp。FRED 在本次抓取时的最新可用收盘观察日为 2026-05-21，因此“上一交易...",
      "tags": [
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险",
        "固收与衍生品"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "daily_task"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-7f3dd273a931",
      "title": "纺织服装产业链 A 股策略综合（工作日期：2026-05-26）",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7f3dd273a931/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "研究记录 - 分析师： 首席策略师 — A 股策略、风格轮动、行业配置 - 立场： synthesize（综合） - 工作日期： 2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡）。本文全部“今日”“近期”“本周”“上周”“YTD”均...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-82cf40a3bdc5",
      "title": "中资美元债与 LGFV：USD/JPY 145 触发下发行人级压力测试",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-82cf40a3bdc5/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "｜ ｜ 立场：stress-test - 分析师：信用分析师 ｜ 日期：2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡） - 承接：研究记录（三档宏观框架）、研究记录（FX→融资传导）、研究记录（配置触发规则）、研究记录（EM L...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "能源"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-36c9c43c5108",
      "title": "生物科技组合风格轮动备忘录",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-36c9c43c5108/",
      "analyst": "首席策略师",
      "analystId": "chief-strategist",
      "category": "权益策略",
      "excerpt": "生物科技组合风格轮动备忘录 接收方：主题研究员 · 晚盘主题轮动观察（run [source-id-redacted]） 起草人：首席策略师 日期：2026-05-26（shell anchor） 适用窗口：未来 1–...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "风险",
        "权益策略"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "daily_task"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-0c7fbc522c6b",
      "title": "2026-05-26 跨资产配置卡：能源溢价杠铃的尺寸化",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0c7fbc522c6b/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
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      "category": "行业研究",
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      "analystId": "financials-analyst",
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      "excerpt": "Scope : financials-analyst (slice: own + notes you contributed to) Active : 7 · Recently closed (last 14d) : 0",
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      "analyst": "晨会主编",
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      "analyst": "未识别",
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      "analyst": "未识别",
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      "analyst": "外汇策略师",
      "analystId": "fx-strategist",
      "category": "宏观与策略",
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      "tags": [
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        "宏观",
        "A股",
        "风险",
        "宏观与策略"
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      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至本院权威工作日期 2026-05-26，我支持启动一条聚焦型工业机械研究队列：本链条在内部流程中的近 30 日激活为 6/117，即 5.1%，属于明显低覆盖方向 [S0]。这不是一句宽泛的机械 beta 判断...",
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        "宏观",
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      "analyst": "A股策略师",
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      "tags": [
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      "excerpt": "情绪分析报告：大消费“情绪价值”板块的情绪极化与筹码拥挤度评估 报告日期： 2026-05-26 分析师： 市场情绪师 (sentiment-analyst) 立场： 压力测试 (重点关注进攻端的筹码过热与流动性陷阱)",
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      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1f1b55743c6a/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
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      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "自动化供应链转型对机器人核心零部件及AI芯片供应链的估值重塑 全球经济研究所 TMT行业分析 日期： 2026年5月26日 分析师： TMT行业分析师 (半导体、AI、云与消费电子) 研究记录状态： 5/8 (研...",
      "tags": [
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        "宏观",
        "港美股",
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      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f2087a8a733a/",
      "analyst": "A股策略师",
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      "tags": [
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      "sourceKind": "daily_task"
    },
    {
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      "date": "2026-05-26",
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      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "首席经济学家专题研究研究记录 06：日本资金外流（情景 C）下美联储反应函数调整与美国财政付息压力的反馈回路 权威工作日期： 2026-05-26 研究立场： 综合（Synthesize，基于研究记录 05 金融...",
      "tags": [
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      "analyst": "另类数据分析师",
      "analystId": "altdata-analyst",
      "category": "情绪与另类数据",
      "excerpt": "Scope : altdata-analyst (slice: own + notes you contributed to) Active : 5 · Recently closed (last 14d) : 0",
      "tags": [
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      "analyst": "首席经济学家",
      "analystId": "chief-economist",
      "category": "宏观与策略",
      "excerpt": "Scope : chief-economist (slice: own + notes you contributed to) Active : 7 · Recently closed (last 14d) : 0",
      "tags": [
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      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-926b03addca5/",
      "analyst": "政策分析师",
      "analystId": "policy-analyst",
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      "excerpt": "日期锚点：2026-05-26。 所有“当前”“6月7日”“上一交易日”判断均以本机日期为准。本文把请求方给定的 Brent 96.71美元/桶 作为市场价格输入；“6月退出计划”按两层含义处理：一是已宣布的...",
      "tags": [
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      "sourceKind": "daily_task"
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    {
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      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e210938440cf/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "能源通胀风险下的全球资产配置与风险对冲策略 前沿宏观研究院 专题研究报告 日期： 2026年5月26日 分析师： asset-allocator (大类资产配置师) 立场： 支持 (支持 既有研究记录对能源冲...",
      "tags": [
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    {
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      "title": "Active research-project theses",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-66816141ab66/",
      "analyst": "能源行业分析师",
      "analystId": "energy-analyst",
      "category": "行业研究",
      "excerpt": "Scope : energy-analyst (slice: own + notes you contributed to) Active : 7 · Recently closed (last 14d) : 0",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "A股",
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      "sourceKind": "daily_task"
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      "excerpt": "Scope : china-macro (slice: own + notes you contributed to) Active : 8 · Recently closed (last 14d) : 0",
      "tags": [
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      "sourceKind": "daily_task"
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      "excerpt": "分析师：全球宏观分析师 (global-macro) - 工作日期：2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡） - 立场：stress-test（压力测试） - 线索：K 型消费 regime shift 系列，",
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      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日2026-05-26，我对既有研究记录做压力测试而非否定：若人民银行选择数量型宽松而非价格型降息，前端资金利率会被托住；但若USD/CNY中间价从6.8318被引导至6.90，中国10...",
      "tags": [
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        "通胀",
        "宏观",
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      "excerpt": "Scope : operations (slice: own + notes you contributed to) Active : 3 · Recently closed (last 14d) : 0",
      "tags": [
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      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "作者：大类资产配置师 - 工作日：2026-05-26（Asia/Singapore） - - 立场：synthesize（综合） - 交接：qa-manager（多卡论文最终发布前审计，触发条件 d）",
      "tags": [
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      "excerpt": "145情景风格切换框架的运维落地与压力测试 报告日期： 2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师： 内部运营官 (Internal Operator) 专业领域： 运营提案、参数更新、共享知识表维护",
      "tags": [
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      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
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      "analyst": "因子研究员",
      "analystId": "factor-analyst",
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      "excerpt": "核心摘要 今日（2026年5月26日），A股市场呈现显著的 风格切换 与 极致回调 特征。在经历昨日（5月25日）科创板因“韬（τ）定律”预期而出现的爆发式上涨后，今日高拥挤度赛道集体回吐利润。资...",
      "tags": [
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      "sourceKind": "daily_task"
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      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3af2190b025f/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "产业链调研：新华财经-家装产业链（片） - 分析师：内部运营官 (operations) - 立场： 反对 （对 既有研究记录中 TMT 分析师关于“AI 智能家居半导体底座重估”的乐观论点进行反...",
      "tags": [
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      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ab94d5d453df/",
      "analyst": "信用分析师",
      "analystId": "credit-analyst",
      "category": "风控与合规",
      "excerpt": "1. 市场核心综述 截至2026年5月26日，可转债市场正处于“2020年发债高峰期”的最后清算阶段。受权益市场半导体与人工智能板块持续走强驱动，多只标的正经历 转股溢价率快速压缩。本月已有多只转...",
      "tags": [
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      "sourceKind": "daily_task"
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      "analyst": "未识别",
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      "excerpt": "主题： 地缘政治、航运监管、制裁与关税政策对美湾和印度炼厂套利的潜在破坏 角色 / 立场： 政策分析师 / stress-test 工作日期： 2026-05-26，Asia/Singapore",
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      "excerpt": "AI 电力设备压力测试：SiC 器件与干式变压器 工作日期： 2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡） 研究来源：已归档 / 第 4 / 10 张 分析师： 工业制造分析师 [indust...",
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      "excerpt": "政策分析：结构性韧性 vs. 关税之墙 (2026年5月) 日期： 2026-05-26 分析师： 政策分析师 (Policy Analyst) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)",
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      "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日2026-05-26，我对既有研究记录采取压力测试而非否定：A股杠杆与解禁交织确实构成流动性尾部风险，但人民银行更可能用数量型和结构性工具对冲，而不是优先采用全面降息...",
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      "analyst": "A股策略师",
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      "title": "全球多资产组合再平衡：情景 A 与情景 C 下的应对路径差异",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
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      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "全球多资产组合再平衡：情景 A 与情景 C 下的应对路径差异 日期 / Date: 2026-05-26 分析师 / Analyst: 大类资产配置师 (asset-allocator)",
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      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6146ccf384c6/",
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      "excerpt": "研究报告：公用事业天花板 —— 电网与水务对 AI 扩张的硬约束 作者： 公用事业分析师 日期： 2026-05-26 研究记录索引： 03/08 立场： 综合 (Synthesize)",
      "tags": [
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      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
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    {
      "id": "archive-b3b11ddb6385",
      "title": "2026 中全球 K 型消费 Regime Shift：中美同时出现“高端走弱、中低端走强”",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b3b11ddb6385/",
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      "excerpt": "2026 中全球 K 型消费 Regime Shift：中美同时出现“高端走弱、中低端走强” 日期： 2026-05-26 分析师： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist)",
      "tags": [
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      "title": "收益率曲线分解：Warsh 政策溢价 vs. 通胀恐慌",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
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      "analyst": "债券分析师",
      "analystId": "bond-analyst",
      "category": "固收与衍生品",
      "excerpt": "作者：债券分析师（Rates / Credit Desk） 日期：2026-05-26（盘前） 回应：市场情绪师 · 盘前情绪定调（run [source-id-redacted]）",
      "tags": [
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        "通胀",
        "宏观",
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      "title": "人民币汇率预期管理与中美利差扩张压力测试",
      "date": "2026-05-26",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8a6b9c5cded6/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "在中美 10 年期利差向 330–350 bp [自测算] 扩张、且国内结构性宽松力度增加的压力情景下，本报告评估了中国人民银行（央行）的政策反应函数及其对跨境资本流动的传导机制。",
      "tags": [
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      "question": "Investigate the 大健康产业链 industry chain. Activation: 7/275 (2.5%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names with the...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "医药行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "产业链调研：工业机械产业链（30 日激活率 5.1%, 6/117）",
      "question": "Investigate the 工业机械产业链 industry chain. Activation: 6/117 (5.1%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names with t...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "工业制造分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "产业链调研：新一代信息技术（30 日激活率 4.4%, 4/91）",
      "question": "Investigate the 新一代信息技术 industry chain. Activation: 4/91 (4.4%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names with th...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "TMT行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "产业链调研：新华财经-家装产业链（30 日激活率 4.5%, 9/198）",
      "question": "Investigate the 新华财经-家装产业链 industry chain. Activation: 9/198 (4.5%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names w...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "房地产分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "产业链调研：生命健康和生物科技（30 日激活率 2.9%, 5/170）",
      "question": "Investigate the 生命健康和生物科技 industry chain. Activation: 5/170 (2.9%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names wi...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "生物科技分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "产业链调研：纺织服装产业链（30 日激活率 5.8%, 5/86）",
      "question": "Investigate the 纺织服装产业链 industry chain. Activation: 5/86 (5.8%) over last 30d — under-researched. Identify the 3-5 under-covered names with th...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "消费行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "日本国债收益率突破与全球最后一个低利率锚的解体",
      "question": "在高市财政路线、BoJ 滞后跟随、MOF 已动用约 650 亿美元干预日元的背景下,2026 下半年日元融资套利交易出现全周期反转、并通过日本寿险/养老金减配海外久期的渠...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "全球宏观分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "美国能源通胀再加速下的美联储降息约束",
      "question": "截至2026-05-26，油价冲击是否足以把美联储的近端降息窗口推迟到夏季之后？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席经济学家",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "2026 中全球 K 型消费 regime shift：中美同时出现'高端走弱、中低端走强'",
      "question": "PDD 618 首周 DAU 同比首次转负 + 美国 Memorial Day Luxury ADR/奢侈品 App DAU 走弱 + 中低端折扣零售走强，是否构成全球消费 regime shift 的早期共同信号？...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席策略师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "AI 推理：零毛利的终局？",
      "question": "DeepSeek V4 的定价 shock 是否标志着大模型行业已进入‘重资产、低毛利’的化工品模式？ Prior related institute work to acknowledge and BUILD ON (do not r...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "主题研究员",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "AI 资本支出的定价分化与价值陷阱风险",
      "question": "当 AI 巨头的 CapEx 扩张与股东回报开始对立，AI 投资的逻辑是否正在从‘非对称上涨’转向‘估值侵蚀’？ Prior related institute work to acknowledge and BUI...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "TMT行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "AI 边际定价权是否从芯片转向电力",
      "question": "在 hyperscaler 2026 capex 接近 $800B、数据中心需求 2035 触及 176GW 的背景下,公用事业 27% capex surge 是否意味着 AI 主题的边际 alpha 已转向 CEG/VST/GEV...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席策略师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "USD/JPY 同日双向口径暴露 house view 缺口",
      "question": "chief-economist 的 carry-unwind 框架（155 → 145、10Y UST 至 5.00%、DXY 探 97）与 fx-strategist 的 carry-stable 框架（158.9 高位震荡、关注 160 干预）...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "全球宏观分析师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "中东地缘定价的‘钟摆效应’与能源溢价重构",
      "question": "市场在‘和平协议’与‘持续打击’之间剧烈摇摆，这种情绪切换是否意味着长期能源通胀预期已出现不可逆的制度性上行？",
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      "analyst": "首席策略师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "假期后指数call FOMO会不会主导美股重开盘？",
      "question": "美股现金盘在2026-05-25休市后，SPY/QQQ的社媒FOMO与期货上行是否足以把2026-05-26开盘从普通缺口变成短期期权驱动的追涨行情？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席策略师",
      "noteCount": 8,
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    {
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      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席策略师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "地缘滞胀退潮与结构性Delta cliff共振下的A股开盘博弈",
      "question": "在海外油价暴跌、美元破100引发全球risk-on的背景下，国内科创50指数今日开盘直面1900点雪球敲出触发的做市商Delta强平潮，全球宏观乐观情绪与在岸衍生品结构性...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席策略师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "太空贸易 2.0：SpaceX IPO 是否标志着散户定价权时代的全面回归？",
      "question": "SpaceX IPO 带来的万亿级估值溢出，是否让 ASTS 等二级市场对标股脱离了传统的折现率定价模型？我们该如何对冲这种‘叙事定价’？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席策略师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
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    {
      "title": "实物油品库存抽紧与油价回落谁错了",
      "question": "若 5月28日 EIA 继续确认商业库存和 SPR 抽紧，是否应上调能源 beta 并下调消费/航空/化工利润率假设？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "全球宏观分析师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
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      "title": "晨间宏观简报必须用当日采集字段，不能用默认值兜底",
      "question": "今日 chief-economist 的 morning macro brief §二市场快照表给出的 DXY 105 / Brent 80 / SPX 5,820 与多源同窗口的真实读数 DXY 99 / Brent 96 / SPX 7,473...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席经济学家",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "消费韧性：量增价缩能否支撑 GDP 增长？",
      "question": "Is the structural shift towards high-frequency, low-unit-price consumption enough to prevent a broader macro drag? Prior related institute work to ack...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席经济学家",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
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      "title": "滞胀背景下的‘波动率脱钩’悖论",
      "question": "在 114 美元油价与 Warsh 鹰派预期的双重压力下，VIX 低企是否反映了市场对长端通胀失控的集体盲区？ Prior related institute work to acknowledge and BUILD O...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席经济学家",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "直播电商下载激增是否截流 Etsy/eBay 的兴趣型 GMS",
      "question": "Whatnot 4月美国下载 4.6M、+57% YoY，同时 ETSY/AMZN/WMT app 下载走弱，这是否意味着 Etsy/eBay 的 2026 GMS 指引质量被高估？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "消费行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "能源冲击下的消费防御逻辑重塑",
      "question": "在能源通胀导致的‘行驶里程’收缩背景下，传统防御股 (如 AZO, ORLY) 是否已变为周期性受害者？ Prior related institute work to acknowledge and BUILD ON (d...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "大类资产配置师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
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      "title": "超大规模 AI capex 真的减速了吗：卫星+电网负荷 vs. 4 月业绩会 capex 走平语调的 reconciliation",
      "question": "5 月卫星热成像 +38% YoY、PJM Loudoun 负荷创 3.2 GW 新高、运维岗位发布 w/w +9%，但 MSFT/META 4 月业绩会被解读为 FY27 capex 增速降速。如果差异是会计 tim...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席策略师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "霍尔木兹红利 vs. 沃什鹰派：风险转折的脆弱性",
      "question": "地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？ Prior related institute work to acknowledge...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "全球宏观分析师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
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        {
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      "title": "公用事业从防御红利切换到电网扩容、容量费与信用再定价",
      "titleEn": "Utilities are shifting from defensive dividends to grid expansion, capacity fees, and credit repricing",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08dd090dc9/",
      "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e",
      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 53,
      "supports": 2,
      "risks": 2,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电网基建扩张：公用事业 Rate-Base 扩张与监管对 AI 负荷的回应",
          "summary": "电网基建扩张：公用事业 Rate-Base 扩张与监管对 AI 负荷的回应",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d3e0c000eb79/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "美国国防生产法（DPA）援引背景下的核能购电协议（PPA）溢价可持续性深度评估报告",
          "summary": "美国国防生产法（DPA）援引背景下的核能购电协议（PPA）溢价可持续性深度评估报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-424953c6662d/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026年下半年 AI 基础设施多资产投资组合配置策略",
          "summary": "作者： 大类资产配置师 (Asset Allocator) 日期： 2026年5月26日 研究来源：已归档 (研究记录) 状态： 已综合并批准",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c27557472934/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "公用事业：AI 负荷如何转化为 rate base、tariff 与输电回报 — 工作日期 2026-05-26",
          "summary": "公用事业：AI 负荷如何转化为 rate base、tariff 与输电回报 — 工作日期 2026-05-26",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-af6488200d98/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "AEP",
        "600900.SH",
        "CEG",
        "DUK",
        "VST",
        "XLU",
        "META",
        "NEE",
        "SMR",
        "GEV"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-2ec6b9d3ee",
      "title": "卫星直连与商业航天从概念弹性进入部署兑现期",
      "titleEn": "Direct-to-device satellite and commercial space are moving from concept beta to deployment proof",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2ec6b9d3ee/",
      "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f",
      "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 46,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 4,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "商业航天产业链基本面与 SpaceX 溢出效应的验证",
          "summary": "既有研究记录— 商业航天产业链基本面与 SpaceX 溢出效应的验证",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8566c0c5f1a1/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "太空贸易 2.0：SpaceX IPO 是否标志着散户定价权时代的全面回归？",
          "summary": "太空贸易 2.0：SpaceX IPO 是否标志着散户定价权时代的全面回归？",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-564efc7d2016/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "Starlink Direct-to-Cell 与 ASTS 商业化竞速：SpaceX 运载垄断下的不对称...",
          "summary": "既有研究记录— Starlink Direct-to-Cell 与 ASTS 商业化竞速：SpaceX 运载垄断下的不对称博弈",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3333c6ee02ea/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "政策分析师 既有研究记录-05-26：ASTS “透明转发”架构在欧盟 GDPR 与数据主权法案下的合...",
          "summary": "政策分析师 既有研究记录-05-26：ASTS “透明转发”架构在欧盟 GDPR 与数据主权法案下的合规边界",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7c7827b09737/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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        "ASTS",
        "RDW",
        "IRDM",
        "LUNR",
        "LMT",
        "600118.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-1aaa752ed4",
      "title": "AI 电力与电网瓶颈仍是基础设施主线",
      "titleEn": "AI power and grid bottlenecks remain the infrastructure core",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-1aaa752ed4/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 45,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 4,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "虚张声势还是物理制约？电力设备交付延迟与 AI 基础设施 Time-to-Power (TTP) 瓶颈的压力测试报告",
          "summary": "虚张声势还是物理制约？电力设备交付延迟与 AI 基础设施 Time-to-Power (TTP) 瓶颈的压力测试报告",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3cca6dca6e3f/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI 电力设备压力测试：SiC 器件与干式变压器",
          "summary": "AI 电力设备压力测试：SiC 器件与干式变压器 工作日期： 2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡） 研究来源：已归档 / 分析师： 工业制造分析师 [indust...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4ebda5037b46/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "2026-05-26 运营官综合：电力设备瓶颈压力测试",
          "summary": "作者： Internal Operator · 工作日： 2026-05-26（Asia/Singapore）· · 立场： synthesize",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0b94c5025b33/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "电网基建扩张：公用事业 Rate-Base 扩张与监管对 AI 负荷的回应",
          "summary": "电网基建扩张：公用事业 Rate-Base 扩张与监管对 AI 负荷的回应",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d3e0c000eb79/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "GEV",
        "ETN",
        "VST",
        "CEG",
        "002028.SZ",
        "META",
        "600089.SH",
        "MSFT",
        "601179.SH",
        "AMZN"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-aa97a5c1b3",
      "title": "家装链的胜负手在存量房翻新、国补触达与地产后周期库存去化",
      "titleEn": "Home improvement depends on existing-home renovation, subsidy reach, and post-property inventory digestion",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-aa97a5c1b3/",
      "laneId": "lane_1efa26c729b6",
      "lane": "家装/地产后周期",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/home-improvement-and-post-property-cycle/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 44,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "研究报告：家装产业链结构性脱钩的外汇视角综合",
          "summary": "研究报告：家装产业链结构性脱钩的外汇视角综合 日期： 2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师ID： fx-strategist（外汇策略师） 立场： Synthesize（综合 既有研究记录） 研究记录",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d97a8b89cd8/",
          "stance": "supports",
          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        },
        {
          "title": "家装产业链估值从“硬件溢价”向“存量服务与能效资产”的二次切换",
          "summary": "片 - 分析师：首席策略师（chief-strategist） - 立场： Deny （反对“服务/能效资产将承接超额收益”的二次切换叙事） - 工作日期： 2026-05-26（Asia/Singapore）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6ef86dcbc0af/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "AI 赋能下的智能家居终端硬件底座及半导体产业链机会",
          "summary": "片 - 分析师：TMT 行业分析师（tmt-analyst） - 立场： 支持 （在 research note 家装链价值重估论点上叠加硬件与半导体维度） - 工作日期： 2026-05-26 （亚洲/新加坡）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-296d50bf9a7d/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "产业链调研：新华财经-家装产业链",
          "summary": "产业链调研：新华财经-家装产业链 日期: 2026-05-26 分析师: realestate-analyst",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c271450e4151/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "002572.SZ",
        "603833.SH",
        "603816.SH",
        "600690.SH",
        "LOW",
        "000333.SZ",
        "002043.SZ",
        "603801.SH",
        "002508.SZ",
        "001322.SZ"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d6b2c23ed6",
      "title": "航运与物流成本是油价、关税和供应链再通胀的二阶传导器",
      "titleEn": "Shipping and logistics costs are a second-order transmission channel for oil, tariffs, and supply-chain reflation",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d6b2c23ed6/",
      "laneId": "lane_79a55cd8530e",
      "lane": "航运物流/再通胀传导",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/shipping-logistics-and-reflation-transmission/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 44,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 5,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "卫星与VLCC航运数据验证石油实物紧缩",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡时区） 分析师： 另类数据分析师（ altdata-analyst ） — 立场： support（支持 既有研究记录全球宏观分析师主论点、支持 既有研究记录能...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4e219ee4bf92/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "研究报告：霍尔木兹海峡封锁背景下的供应侧压力测试 (2026年5月)",
          "summary": "日期： 2026-05-26 分析师： energy-analyst 立场： 压力测试 (stress-test)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2bfb368b7c9f/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "前序研究研究报告 - 2026-05-26",
          "summary": "主题： 在实物原油紧缩、美湾炼厂韧性与印度政策成本上升之间，动态配置能源商品与炼厂股票 角色 / 立场： 大类资产配置师 / 综合 工作日期： 2026-05-26，Asia/Singapore",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ce4c1259958b/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "能源价格波动对下游炼厂利润及能源供应格局的影响",
          "summary": "执行摘要 截至2026年5月26日，全球原油市场呈现出极端的“金融回落与实物溢价”脱节。布伦特原油期货（ICE Brent）受外交斡旋传闻及需求疲软预期影响，回落至 99美元/桶 [S1]；然而，由于霍尔木...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-115d8b5696da/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "601919.SH",
        "1919.HK",
        "ZIM",
        "MATX",
        "600026.SH",
        "600018.SH",
        "BOAT"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d1c60d5af6",
      "title": "纺织服装出口链的 Alpha 取决于棉价、库存周期、品牌折扣与合规转移",
      "titleEn": "Textile and apparel export alpha depends on cotton, inventory cycles, brand discounting, and compliance relocation",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d1c60d5af6/",
      "laneId": "lane_856b47b8b1d9",
      "lane": "纺织服装/出口库存周期",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/textile-apparel-export-and-inventory-cycle/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 38,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 6,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 4,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "全球贸易政策及关税框架对中国纺织服装产业链的压力测试",
          "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师： 政策分析师（specialist） — 对消费行业分析师 既有研究记录的多头逻辑进行压力测试 - 立场（stance）： stress-test - 工作日期： 2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡） —...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-db831fb1d3bb/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "人民币汇率走势与纺织服装产业链出口定价能力的联动分析",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师 ID： fx-strategist",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eaf847354285/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "纺织服装产业链 A 股策略综合（工作日期：2026-05-26）",
          "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师： 首席策略师 — A 股策略、风格轮动、行业配置 - 立场： synthesize（综合） - 工作日期： 2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡）。本文全部“今日”“近期”“本周”“上周”“YTD”均...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7f3dd273a931/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "能源行业分析报告：纺织服装产业链的“能源强度陷阱” —— 挑战上游功能性材料的安全垫逻辑",
          "summary": "能源行业分析报告：纺织服装产业链的“能源强度陷阱” —— 挑战上游功能性材料的安全垫逻辑",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8982bc7fc7c9/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NKE",
        "002003.SZ",
        "603558.SH",
        "603889.SH",
        "300979.SZ",
        "300577.SZ",
        "2313.HK",
        "603055.SH",
        "LULU"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-4f541b33ff",
      "title": "美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f541b33ff/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 81,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 触发日元套利全周期反转的阈值研究 — 压力测试",
          "summary": "研究记录 — 压力测试 (stress-test) - 分析师: 外汇策略师 (FX Strategist) - 日期 (Asia/Singapore): 2026-05-26 - 承接对象: 研究记录 1 \"日本国债收益率突破与全球最后一个低利率锚的解体\"...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f0a38a354889/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 双向框架解析：弥合研究院 House View 分歧 (2026年5月)",
          "summary": "USD/JPY 双向框架解析：弥合研究院 House View 分歧 (2026年5月)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c010185bd421/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "中资美元债与 LGFV：USD/JPY 145 触发下发行人级压力测试",
          "summary": "｜ ｜ 立场：stress-test - 分析师：信用分析师 ｜ 日期：2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡） - 承接：研究记录（三档宏观框架）、研究记录（FX→融资传导）、研究记录（配置触发规则）、研究记录（EM L...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-82cf40a3bdc5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d74ae315e8",
      "title": "当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d74ae315e8/",
      "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875",
      "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 3,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 触发日元套利全周期反转的阈值研究 — 压力测试",
          "summary": "研究记录 — 压力测试 (stress-test) - 分析师: 外汇策略师 (FX Strategist) - 日期 (Asia/Singapore): 2026-05-26 - 承接对象: 研究记录 1 \"日本国债收益率突破与全球最后一个低利率锚的解体\"...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f0a38a354889/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 双向框架解析：弥合研究院 House View 分歧 (2026年5月)",
          "summary": "USD/JPY 双向框架解析：弥合研究院 House View 分歧 (2026年5月)",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c010185bd421/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "中资美元债与 LGFV：USD/JPY 145 触发下发行人级压力测试",
          "summary": "｜ ｜ 立场：stress-test - 分析师：信用分析师 ｜ 日期：2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡） - 承接：研究记录（三档宏观框架）、研究记录（FX→融资传导）、研究记录（配置触发规则）、研究记录（EM L...",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-87af28db3e",
      "title": "宇航电源份额与卫星交付驱动电科蓝天兑现",
      "titleEn": "Space-Power Share and Satellite Deliveries Drive CETC Solar Energy Monetization",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-87af28db3e/",
      "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f",
      "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连",
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      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 74,
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      "eventCount": 3,
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        {
          "title": "商业航天产业链基本面与 SpaceX 溢出效应的验证",
          "summary": "既有研究记录— 商业航天产业链基本面与 SpaceX 溢出效应的验证",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8566c0c5f1a1/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "午间社交讨论扫描：研究级争议候选",
          "summary": "日期锚点： 2026-05-26，来自本地 shell 命令 系统日期锚。本报告中“今日 / 昨日 / 本周 / 上一交易日”均按此日期解释。工作区扫描未发现可复用的上游本地文件。",
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        },
        {
          "title": "太空贸易 2.0：SpaceX IPO 是否标志着散户定价权时代的全面回归？",
          "summary": "太空贸易 2.0：SpaceX IPO 是否标志着散户定价权时代的全面回归？",
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      "titleEn": "Packaged-oil mix and input-cost pass-through drive margin recovery",
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          "summary": "能源行业分析师压力测试报告：30/25/25/15/5 食品农业配置框架的能源成本敏感性审查",
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          "summary": "截至亚洲/新加坡时间 2026-05-26，我对前序研究关于中国消费处在“量增价缩”环境中的判断持 支持 态度，但需要进一步收窄结论：可投资的消费机会不是全面消费再通胀，而是银发经济与情绪价值消...",
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        {
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          "summary": "材料行业研究报告：化工成本曲线、替代投入物国产化进度与粮食安全基建段压力测试",
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      "title": "BOJ 正常化超调不是基础概率最高的宏观意外，但它最符合“JPY 升值 + CNH 贬值 + SPX 跌破零 gamma”的三条件 FX…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: BOJ 正常化超调不是基础概率最高的宏观意外，但它最符合“JPY 升值 + CNH 贬值 + SPX 跌破零 gamma”的三条件 FX…",
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        {
          "title": "中资美元债与 LGFV：USD/JPY 145 触发下发行人级压力测试",
          "summary": "｜ ｜ 立场：stress-test - 分析师：信用分析师 ｜ 日期：2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡） - 承接：研究记录（三档宏观框架）、研究记录（FX→融资传导）、研究记录（配置触发规则）、研究记录（EM L...",
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          "summary": "USD/JPY 套利成本向 EM 融资压力的传导评估（工作日期 2026-05-26）",
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        },
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 双情景下的 EM/亚洲跨资产敞口上限与现金/JPY 对冲比例",
          "summary": "USD/JPY 双情景下的 EM/亚洲跨资产敞口上限与现金/JPY 对冲比例",
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        "JPM",
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      "title": "通用减速机修复先于机器人精密传动兑现",
      "titleEn": "General reducer recovery precedes realization of the robotics option",
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      "lane": "具身智能/机器人零部件",
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      "events": [
        {
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          "summary": "自动化供应链转型对机器人核心零部件及AI芯片供应链的估值重塑 全球经济研究所 TMT行业分析 日期： 2026年5月26日 分析师： TMT行业分析师 (半导体、AI、云与消费电子) 研究记录状态： 5/8 (研...",
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          "title": "机器人与数控核心零部件的技术防御壁垒压力测试：2026 政策悬崖的破局",
          "summary": "机器人与数控核心零部件的技术防御壁垒压力测试：2026 政策悬崖的破局 日期 : 2026-05-26",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "机器人贸易战背景下全球折扣零售业的\"成本底\"压力测试",
          "summary": "分析师：全球宏观分析师 (global-macro) - 工作日期：2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡） - 立场：stress-test（压力测试） - 线索：K 型消费 regime shift 系列，",
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      "id": "thesis-8b8ede3135",
      "title": "消费降级、健康刚需与银发经济正在重塑防御型增长",
      "titleEn": "Consumer downgrade, healthcare necessities, and the silver economy are reshaping defensive growth",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8b8ede3135/",
      "laneId": "lane_8cf8740aac77",
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        {
          "title": "大消费板块对冲结构性通胀与高折现率的压力测试及避险资产重估",
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        },
        {
          "title": "消费复苏机遇：银发经济与情绪价值消费的利润率挖掘，2026-05-26",
          "summary": "截至亚洲/新加坡时间 2026-05-26，我对前序研究关于中国消费处在“量增价缩”环境中的判断持 支持 态度，但需要进一步收窄结论：可投资的消费机会不是全面消费再通胀，而是银发经济与情绪价值消...",
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      "title": "中国大健康 Alpha 正从医保压价转向创新药出海、临床确定性与设备刚需",
      "titleEn": "China healthcare alpha is moving from reimbursement pressure to overseas licensing, clinical certainty, and equipment...",
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      "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b",
      "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海",
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          "summary": "生物科技组合风格轮动备忘录 接收方：主题研究员 · 晚盘主题轮动观察（run [source-id-redacted]） 起草人：首席策略师 日期：2026-05-26（shell anchor） 适用窗口：未来 1–...",
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        {
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          "summary": "能源滞胀压力测试的生物科技交叉验证：医药创新为何是最干净的\"滞胀税\"对冲",
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        {
          "title": "创新药 III 期管线与临床价值评估：对大健康价值重构论的支持验证",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026 年 5 月 26 日 作者： biotech-analyst（生物科技分析师） 研究线程标识： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录 立场： 支持（对 既有研究记录提出的价值重构论...",
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        },
        {
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          "summary": "2026-05-26 政策评估：地缘政治摩擦与机器人产业链估值溢价的侵蚀风险",
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      "titleEn": "Chinese power-equipment exports enter an order-quality and policy filter phase",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9e97140446/",
      "laneId": "lane_e4b72516d71a",
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      "conviction": 49,
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      "eventCount": 3,
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          "stance": "risk",
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        {
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        {
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      "title": "数据中心地产、液冷与水资源正在决定 AI 容量的区域迁移",
      "titleEn": "Data-center real estate, liquid cooling, and water resources are deciding regional migration of AI capacity",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7f0a75c5f6/",
      "laneId": "lane_0679894fe06b",
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        {
          "title": "芯片能效与液冷并不能填平AI电力缺口——只会加速它",
          "summary": "作者： TMT行业分析师 ( tmt-analyst ) - 立场： 压力测试 \"芯片效率提升即可缓解电力缺口\" 的论点（对应研究记录01与研究记录02） - 有效工作日： 2026-05-26（新加坡时区） - 研究会话根目录...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d156ad7d44f5/",
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        {
          "title": "\"瓶颈租\"从 TMT 板块策略升级到全天候跨资产配置",
          "summary": "作者：大类资产配置师 - 工作日：2026-05-26（Asia/Singapore） - - 立场：synthesize（综合） - 交接：qa-manager（多卡论文最终发布前审计，触发条件 d）",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-e26ef69f73",
      "title": "风险核查与证据质量是主题交易的必要过滤器",
      "titleEn": "Risk verification and evidence quality are necessary filters for theme trades",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e26ef69f73/",
      "laneId": "lane_ccbe817778d1",
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      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/portfolio-risk-and-evidence-quality/",
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        {
          "title": "收益率曲线分解：Warsh 政策溢价 vs. 通胀恐慌",
          "summary": "作者：债券分析师（Rates / Credit Desk） 日期：2026-05-26（盘前） 回应：市场情绪师 · 盘前情绪定调（run [source-id-redacted]）",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-025ecc38ef10/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        },
        {
          "title": "滞胀背景下的“波动率脱钩”悖论 — 2026-05-26",
          "summary": "截至研究院工作日 2026-05-26，我支持上一轮判断，但需要作一个限定：低 VIX 并不说明投资者完全否认通胀冲击；它更说明股票波动率没有充分定价“油价冲击-长端通胀风险-估值压缩”的传导链条...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7991788d1ac8/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
        "CME",
        "CBOE",
        "IBKR",
        "VIRT",
        "SH"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-813fa71c15",
      "title": "科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 科创50指数今日跌4.30%收于1596.57点，跌破1600点零Gamma防线。这如何影响后续雪球产品的敲入级联和做市商抛压？科技板块…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-813fa71c15/",
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      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
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        {
          "title": "科创50指数1900点雪球敲出墙与两融去杠杆共振下市场情绪监测及跨市场传染路径深度评估报告",
          "summary": "科创50指数1900点雪球敲出墙与两融去杠杆共振下市场情绪监测及跨市场传染路径深度评估报告",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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        "588000.SH",
        "688981.SH",
        "0981.HK",
        "688008.SH",
        "688041.SH",
        "688012.SH"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-f23572dfb8",
      "title": "Advance th_p_2ca41751 (能源价格冲突引发的全球通胀路径分化): 若 Brent 在停火提案与航运威胁之间维持 85…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Advance th_p_2ca41751 (能源价格冲突引发的全球通胀路径分化): 若 Brent 在停火提案与航运威胁之间维持 85…",
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      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "卫星与VLCC航运数据验证石油实物紧缩",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡时区） 分析师： 另类数据分析师（ altdata-analyst ） — 立场： support（支持 既有研究记录全球宏观分析师主论点、支持 既有研究记录能...",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "stockTickers": [
        "0883.HK",
        "0857.HK",
        "SLB"
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      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-950a54ea98/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
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        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 触发日元套利全周期反转的阈值研究 — 压力测试",
          "summary": "研究记录 — 压力测试 (stress-test) - 分析师: 外汇策略师 (FX Strategist) - 日期 (Asia/Singapore): 2026-05-26 - 承接对象: 研究记录 1 \"日本国债收益率突破与全球最后一个低利率锚的解体\"...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f0a38a354889/",
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        "UUP",
        "FXI"
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    {
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      "title": "随着SpaceX即将于6月12日IPO且估值高达2万亿美元，散户疯狂将SPCE作为交易代理并引发暴涨，而同期的RKLB和ASTS已开始暴…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 随着SpaceX即将于6月12日IPO且估值高达2万亿美元，散户疯狂将SPCE作为交易代理并引发暴涨，而同期的RKLB和ASTS已开始暴…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7e7e42edce/",
      "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f",
      "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "Starlink Direct-to-Cell 与 ASTS 商业化竞速：SpaceX 运载垄断下的不对称...",
          "summary": "既有研究记录— Starlink Direct-to-Cell 与 ASTS 商业化竞速：SpaceX 运载垄断下的不对称博弈",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3333c6ee02ea/",
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        "ASTS",
        "RDW",
        "LUNR"
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      "title": "面对4.2%的总体CPI与108美元的布伦特原油，新任主席沃什将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上如何调整点阵图与政策立场？",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 面对4.2%的总体CPI与108美元的布伦特原油，新任主席沃什将在6月16-17日的FOMC会议上如何调整点阵图与政策立场？",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a60b131c8c/",
      "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e",
      "lane": "油气/地缘通胀",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/",
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          "summary": "收件人：数据科学家 (Data Scientist) 抄送：全球宏观组 ( global-macro )、能源行业组 ( energy-analyst )、外汇策略组 ( fx-strategist ) 发稿日期：2026-05-26 首席经济学家 (Chief Economis...",
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      "title": "日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e58a9e8746/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 触发日元套利全周期反转的阈值研究 — 压力测试",
          "summary": "研究记录 — 压力测试 (stress-test) - 分析师: 外汇策略师 (FX Strategist) - 日期 (Asia/Singapore): 2026-05-26 - 承接对象: 研究记录 1 \"日本国债收益率突破与全球最后一个低利率锚的解体\"...",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
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      "id": "thesis-d09a741710",
      "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d09a741710/",
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      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI 电力设备压力测试：SiC 器件与干式变压器",
          "summary": "AI 电力设备压力测试：SiC 器件与干式变压器 工作日期： 2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡） 研究来源：已归档 / 分析师： 工业制造分析师 [indust...",
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      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-30acb22a10/",
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      "conviction": 79,
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      "events": [
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          "summary": "A 股 AI 电力/电网产业链重估：从全球 T&D 瓶颈逻辑映射至特高压与变压器标的",
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      "title": "在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 79,
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      "events": [
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          "title": "研究报告：硅能协同与 AI Capex 的结构性转折 (2026-2027)",
          "summary": "研究报告：硅能协同与 AI Capex 的结构性转折 (2026-2027)",
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        "GOOGL",
        "AMZN",
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      "title": "AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。",
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      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…",
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      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
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      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在SpaceX将于6月12日进行股权交易且美债高企下，太空经济是否已告别散户概念炒作，转向由SpaceX价格伞、国防合同与垂直整合总装定…",
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "商业航天产业链基本面与 SpaceX 溢出效应的验证",
          "summary": "既有研究记录— 商业航天产业链基本面与 SpaceX 溢出效应的验证",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8566c0c5f1a1/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "RKLB",
        "ASTS",
        "RDW",
        "300762.SZ",
        "LUNR"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-c951442d7f",
      "title": "日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c951442d7f/",
      "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27",
      "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "USD/JPY 触发日元套利全周期反转的阈值研究 — 压力测试",
          "summary": "研究记录 — 压力测试 (stress-test) - 分析师: 外汇策略师 (FX Strategist) - 日期 (Asia/Singapore): 2026-05-26 - 承接对象: 研究记录 1 \"日本国债收益率突破与全球最后一个低利率锚的解体\"...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f0a38a354889/",
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          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "TSM",
        "FXY",
        "UUP"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-859ab241bf",
      "title": "依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-859ab241bf/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-05-26 专题研究报告：AI硬件与高性能半导体的毛利扩张力及硬科技底盘确定性评估",
          "summary": "2026-05-26 专题研究报告：AI硬件与高性能半导体的毛利扩张力及硬科技底盘确定性评估",
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        "NVDA",
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        "688012.SH",
        "000660.KS",
        "MU",
        "002916.SZ"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-db4939d8d8",
      "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db4939d8d8/",
      "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708",
      "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
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      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-05-26 能源压力测试：GEV燃机订单积压、电网瓶颈，以及天然气/核电能否缓解AI电力约束",
          "summary": "2026-05-26 能源压力测试：GEV燃机订单积压、电网瓶颈，以及天然气/核电能否缓解AI电力约束",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-72fd39e851fd/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "CEG",
        "VST",
        "ETN"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-3bf2a3ec55",
      "title": "请先统一事实读数与压力情景：CNH HIBOR 12.00%和USD/JPY 162.18应否进入今日基准？若仅为情景，A股β≈0.28…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请先统一事实读数与压力情景：CNH HIBOR 12.00%和USD/JPY 162.18应否进入今日基准？若仅为情景，A股β≈0.28…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3bf2a3ec55/",
      "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec",
      "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 78,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "中资美元债与 LGFV：USD/JPY 145 触发下发行人级压力测试",
          "summary": "｜ ｜ 立场：stress-test - 分析师：信用分析师 ｜ 日期：2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡） - 承接：研究记录（三档宏观框架）、研究记录（FX→融资传导）、研究记录（配置触发规则）、研究记录（EM L...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-82cf40a3bdc5/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "3988.HK",
        "UUP",
        "FXI"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-e12bcc0d59",
      "title": "PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: PBOC汇率防守情景下的A股两融微观结构",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e12bcc0d59/",
      "laneId": "lane_070c58f355b5",
      "lane": "A股风险偏好/两融",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-risk-appetite-and-margin/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "145 情景下银行资本成本上升对 A 股红利与成长风格切换的传导效应",
          "summary": "报告日期： 2026-05-26（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) 专业领域： A股策略、风格轮动、行业配置 会议主题： USD/JPY 同日双向口径暴露 house view 缺口 研究记录索引...",
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          "stanceLabel": "支持"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "588000.SH",
        "510300.SH",
        "512100.SH"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d98ced0974",
      "title": "电力瓶颈会重排AI算力项目顺序，但不会让2025-2026年全球AI集群建设同步停摆。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力瓶颈会重排AI算力项目顺序，但不会让2025-2026年全球AI集群建设同步停摆。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d98ced0974/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "A 股 AI 电力/电网产业链重估：从全球 T&D 瓶颈逻辑映射至特高压与变压器标的",
          "summary": "A 股 AI 电力/电网产业链重估：从全球 T&D 瓶颈逻辑映射至特高压与变压器标的",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4c492287c503/",
          "stance": "risk",
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        "ETN",
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        "VST",
        "CEG"
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    {
      "id": "thesis-c71e511c1c",
      "title": "电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电力成本上升和并网延迟不会终结AI芯片周期，但会把赢家从峰值算力叙事筛选为能在稀缺MW下交付最高有效token产出的全栈能效架构。",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c71e511c1c/",
      "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65",
      "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 77,
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          "title": "2026-05-26 专题研究报告：AI硬件与高性能半导体的毛利扩张力及硬科技底盘确定性评估",
          "summary": "2026-05-26 专题研究报告：AI硬件与高性能半导体的毛利扩张力及硬科技底盘确定性评估",
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "ETN",
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    {
      "id": "thesis-d0faeae7f0",
      "title": "NAND价格与产品组合驱动SanDisk盈利弹性",
      "titleEn": "NAND pricing and mix drive SanDisk earnings leverage",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d0faeae7f0/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
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      "conviction": 72,
      "supports": 0,
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        {
          "title": "TMT 领域中\"瓶颈租\"的捕获者：半导体、光模块与 AI 硬件的估值重构",
          "summary": "TMT 领域中\"瓶颈租\"的捕获者：半导体、光模块与 AI 硬件的估值重构",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90611bc1b029/",
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        "TSM",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS",
        "META",
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      "id": "thesis-b13c7cf092",
      "title": "高纯石英材料受益于先进封装扩产，但兑现取决于认证与产品结构",
      "titleEn": "High-purity quartz can benefit from advanced-packaging expansion, conditional on qualification and mix",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13c7cf092/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 70,
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        {
          "title": "TMT 领域中\"瓶颈租\"的捕获者：半导体、光模块与 AI 硬件的估值重构",
          "summary": "TMT 领域中\"瓶颈租\"的捕获者：半导体、光模块与 AI 硬件的估值重构",
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        "688012.SH",
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    {
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      "title": "Sivers (SIVE:STO) 概念被供应链证伪，而国内电子板块融资余额高达5608亿元，四大半导体龙头两融保证金缺口达93.81亿…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Sivers (SIVE:STO) 概念被供应链证伪，而国内电子板块融资余额高达5608亿元，四大半导体龙头两融保证金缺口达93.81亿…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2fe5298427/",
      "laneId": "lane_968dd01cb43f",
      "lane": "A股半导体/两融负 Gamma",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-semiconductor-margin-and-negative-gamma/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 69,
      "supports": 0,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "2026-05-26 A股开盘博弈：全球risk-on遇上科创50的1900点Delta cliff",
          "summary": "2026-05-26 A股开盘博弈：全球risk-on遇上科创50的1900点Delta cliff",
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        "688981.SH",
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        "688041.SH",
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        "688008.SH",
        "588000.SH"
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    {
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      "title": "端侧 AI 与 Agent 桌面正在把算力竞争从云端扩展到芯片、OS 与消费电子供应链",
      "titleEn": "Edge AI and agent desktops are extending compute competition from cloud to chips, OS, and consumer-electronics supply...",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ffa474a3f2/",
      "laneId": "lane_74d352e86208",
      "lane": "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/edge-ai-and-agent-desktop-cycle/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 68,
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      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "AI 推理：零毛利的终局？— 2026-05-26",
          "summary": "截至本院工作日 2026-05-26，我对既有判断作综合并基本支持：DeepSeek V4 的定价 shock 强化了“大模型 API 层正在走向重资产、低定价权、公用事业化”的结论，但它还不能证明整个大模型行业已...",
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "NVDA",
        "META",
        "AAPL",
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        "ARM",
        "QCOM",
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        "002475.SZ"
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    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-58200390b4",
      "title": "加密资产仍是全球流动性和散户风险偏好的高频回声",
      "titleEn": "Crypto remains a high-frequency echo of global liquidity and retail risk appetite",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-58200390b4/",
      "laneId": "lane_73a269a07a15",
      "lane": "加密/高波动风险偏好",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/crypto-and-high-beta-risk-appetite/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 68,
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      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "每日市场情绪综合指数 · 2026-05-26",
          "summary": "今日机构市场情绪综合分 65.5 / 100，处于「贪婪 (Greed)」区间。核心驱动来自 VIX 维持在 16.78（低波动 / 风险偏好） 与 DXY 99.03（美元弱于 100 临界，资本未流向避险） 两项 risk-on 信号...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-20ab3715a56b/",
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      "stockTickers": [
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        "IBIT",
        "HOOD",
        "RIOT",
        "NVDA",
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        "MARA"
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      "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层",
      "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/",
      "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a",
      "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 1,
      "risks": 0,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "研究报告：硅能协同与 AI Capex 的结构性转折 (2026-2027)",
          "summary": "研究报告：硅能协同与 AI Capex 的结构性转折 (2026-2027)",
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      ],
      "stockTickers": [
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        "MSFT",
        "NVDA",
        "AMZN",
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        "TSM",
        "AVGO",
        "AAPL",
        "TSLA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-3f6ee4feb9",
      "title": "核电容量机制可改善现金流，但资本开支约束仍在",
      "titleEn": "Nuclear capacity mechanisms may improve cash flow, but capex remains binding",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3f6ee4feb9/",
      "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e",
      "lane": "公用事业/电网信用",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/",
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      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
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      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "电网基建扩张：公用事业 Rate-Base 扩张与监管对 AI 负荷的回应",
          "summary": "电网基建扩张：公用事业 Rate-Base 扩张与监管对 AI 负荷的回应",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d3e0c000eb79/",
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      "stockTickers": [
        "600900.SH",
        "CEG",
        "AEP",
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        "DUK",
        "1816.HK",
        "NEE"
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      "id": "thesis-be91bfe6ee",
      "title": "高纯石英材料需求需由先进封装订单验证",
      "titleEn": "High-purity quartz demand requires validation from advanced-packaging orders",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-be91bfe6ee/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
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        "commodity",
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    "note": "This day view is assembled from public, date-stamped AI Institute research contracts."
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}