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deny（否定）。问题不在于04 已建立的 A/H 医药精选超配逻辑；问题在于研究记录 05 进一步声称，煤炭...", "tags": [ "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-3992da8d6a57", "title": "专项债注资与行政重组的化债有效性及财政可持续性压力测试", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3992da8d6a57/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "权威工作日期： 2026-05-24（Asia/Singapore） 分析师： policy-analyst 立场： 压力测试 当前问题： 专项债规模与节奏能否在不引发地方政府债务率失控的前提下，有效对冲城商行信用风险与信贷...", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-487ac56955b4", "title": "半导体产业的\"去风险\"与并购重组：哑铃型价值重估的验证", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-487ac56955b4/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究记录（终篇） - 工作日期：2026-05-24（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师：TMT 行业分析师（tmt-analyst） - 立场：support（在生科哑铃逻辑映射至半导体的判断上达成确认） - 核心问题：半导体行业...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-43fc8f919510", "title": "AI算力扩张下的电力基础设施及能源供应约束风险：超大规模云服务商资本开支费率的系统性压力测试", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-43fc8f919510/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "AI算力扩张下的电力基础设施及能源供应约束风险：超大规模云服务商资本开支费率的系统性压力测试 日期： 2026-05-24 作者： energy-analyst (能源行业分析师) 状态： 研究审查中 研究会议ID： c...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-97b690b734ba", "title": "国有大行红利股压力测试：净息差收窄、国债注资与无风险利差的防御壁垒", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-97b690b734ba/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "国有大行红利股压力测试：净息差收窄、国债注资与无风险利差的防御壁垒 研究院权威工作日期：2026-05-24 分析师：financials-analyst (金融行业分析师) 本报告立场：压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-a48928610989", "title": "投委会决议：调和AI硬件供需分歧（工作日期：2026-05-24）", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a48928610989/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "作为2026-05-24的投委会主席，我给出的结论是综合而非二选一：chief-strategist建议将AI硬件超配降低30-40%，其依据是建设热度周环比下降-6.4%，但这两项均为研究内部输入，本报告未能在公开文...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "A股", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-91bf327ed5ff", "title": "能源行业分析师报告：生物燃料驱动下的食品加工产业链毛利承压研究", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-91bf327ed5ff/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "能源行业分析师报告：生物燃料驱动下的食品加工产业链毛利承压研究 日期： 2026-05-24 分析师： energy-analyst 主题： 东南亚生物燃料政策（B40/B50 & B15）对油脂成本及中游利润率的影响评估", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-9d3bdb98521b", "title": "A股汽车板块策略研报", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9d3bdb98521b/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "A股汽车板块策略研报 日期： 2026-05-24 作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test) 会话路由： [source-id-redacted] 研究记录", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-f0b3afc672d0", "title": "中国宏观分析：海湾“密度陷阱”下中国数字丝绸之路的替代性溢价分析", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f0b3afc672d0/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "日期： 2026-05-24 分析师： china-macro (中国宏观分析师) 主题： 鉴于海湾算力集群面临性能降级与美方固件管控，中国数字丝绸之路（DSR）在全球南方市场确立差异化“完全中立”主权算力溢价的...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-0f2708f329b1", "title": "研究报告：2026-05-24", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0f2708f329b1/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日 2026-05-24 （亚洲/新加坡时区），本报告综合研究记录 01（政策风险溢价向下修正）与研究记录 02（红利已经传导至后期 CXO/CDMO 订单与 BD 议价能力，但只限于质量龙头）的结...", "tags": [ "A股", "港美股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-f87aa01d385a", "title": "银行端信贷扩张受阻下的城投信用风险传导：2026年压力测试报告", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f87aa01d385a/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "银行端信贷扩张受阻下的城投信用风险传导：2026年压力测试报告 分析师： 信用分析师 (Credit Analyst) 机构权威工作日期： 2026-05-24 报告版本： 研究决策专题研究记录 (既有研究记录/...", "tags": [ "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-b78a7701814d", "title": "A股策略2026-05-24：消费降级组合是否低估食品通胀与国补扰动？", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b78a7701814d/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-05-24，Asia/Singapore。我的初始判断是：平价多头 / 高端空头仍然成立，但必须收窄为相对价值交易，而不是简单押注“越便宜越好”。五一支付数据确实验证了客单价下行，但 CPI...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-372e838bca89", "title": "研究记录04压力测试：IM/IC保证金冲击下红利底座的流动性", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-372e838bca89/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "报告日期： 2026-05-24 [S0] 分析师： 首席风控官 既有研究记录[WB1] 立场： 压力测试。我不是否定前序策略，而是对其做尾部流动性校验：59.00%物理红利底座加23.00%现金/安全资产缓冲...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-c91076ccad94", "title": "A股硬件产业链：市场结构、拥挤度指标与风格切换风险", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c91076ccad94/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "A股硬件产业链：市场结构、拥挤度指标与风格切换风险 研究院权威工作日期：2026-05-24 分析师：ashare-strategist (A-Share 策略师) 本报告立场：Stress-Test (压力测试)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-2c14a37dc1df", "title": "最终预发布审计报告：能源/运输冲击下的A股杠铃策略与宏观传导", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2c14a37dc1df/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-05-24 (Asia/Singapore) 研究记录 (接续 既有研究记录首席策略师) 分析师：QA经理 (qa-manager) 立场：Synthesize / Pass (综合 / 通过)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-2ab6c563ca37", "title": "地缘风险溢价缺失下的 Brent 远期曲线重估", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2ab6c563ca37/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "第 5/8 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"全球能源与物流挤压：从价格头条向物理流约束的结构性转折 报告日期： 2026年5月24日 撰写人： 能源行业分析师 ( energy-analyst ) 研究协同会话： 研究记录 (初始立场 - Initial)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-c4f8de159d53", "title": "农业行业分析师质疑：生物燃料是油脂价格底，不是无差别毛利压缩", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c4f8de159d53/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "农业行业分析师质疑：生物燃料是油脂价格底，不是无差别毛利压缩 工作日期： 2026-05-24 分析师： agri-analyst 立场： 否定 既有研究记录的宽口径结论；仅支持高油脂 SKU 的窄口径风险...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-d0248519cdc9", "title": "美联储“更高更久”与CNY 7.40压力测试：港股科技板块重估的汇率阻断传导", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d0248519cdc9/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "美联储“更高更久”与CNY 7.40压力测试：港股科技板块重估的汇率阻断传导 日期 : 2026-05-24 分析师 : FX Strategist (外汇策略师) 立场 : 压力测试 (Stress-test)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-9bc6fec38f73", "title": "量价背离背景下的A股风格轮动与板块配置策略", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9bc6fec38f73/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "报告日期： 2026-05-24 [来源：本地系统时间 2026-05-24] 分析师： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) 研究来源：已归档 / research note 本期立场： 支持...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-194acd6f24cf", "title": "贸易制裁、碳规则与“非中”电池链的长期成本", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-194acd6f24cf/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期： 2026-05-24（Asia/Singapore） 分析师： policy-analyst 立场： stress-test 研究记录主题： 评估贸易制裁与碳税政策对全球电池供应链成本结构的长期影响", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-18b716e86241", "title": "量贩零食与烘焙板块棕榈油毛利压力测试 - 2026-05-24", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-18b716e86241/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期为 2026-05-24。本报告对上一轮消费结论做压力测试，而非简单支持：当棕榈油处在约 MYR 4,500/t 的警戒区间时，量贩零食渠道可以靠规模放缓冲击，但毛利厚度不足以完全吸收上游油脂通胀...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-a1709770c432", "title": "中国LFP产业链成本优势对冲EU ETS碳价上涨的潜力", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a1709770c432/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "date: 2026-05-24 analyst: materials-analyst（材料行业分析师） stance: support topic: 中国LFP产业链成本优势对冲EU ETS碳价上涨的潜力", "tags": [ "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-837f9f3af5c2", "title": "研究门户共享研究会话", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-837f9f3af5c2/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究门户共享研究会话 研究来源：已归档 研究记录索引: 02/10 分析师 ID: financials-analyst 立场: 否定 / 挑战 (DENY) 日期: 2026-05-24 (亚洲/新加坡)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-f2144bef0df0", "title": "电池材料成本分化下的LFP与NMC竞争格局及2026-2027年演化路径", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f2144bef0df0/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "电池材料成本分化下的LFP与NMC竞争格局及2026-2027年演化路径 报告日期： 2026-05-24 分析师： 材料行业分析师 ( materials-analyst ) 研究来源：已归档 研...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "A股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-9fba63b88f29", "title": "2026-05-24 策略卡：AI算力与电力约束下的云厂商估值重构", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9fba63b88f29/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至 2026-05-24，我支持上一张卡的主线判断：AI入口份额轮动并不意味着需求见顶，但二级市场必须给新的瓶颈重新定价。核心约束不再只是模型质量或GPU订单，而是已投入资本能否转化为可用、通电...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-efa1e501b750", "title": "拥挤度与收益率压缩：高股息策略在 A 股风格轮动中的防御边界", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-efa1e501b750/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "日期： 2026年05月24日 分析师： ashare-strategist (A股策略师) 机密等级： 机构内部使用 研究会话 研究线程标识： [source-id-redacted] 共享智能体路由", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-6b8ca60c3507", "title": "研究报告：2026-05-24", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6b8ca60c3507/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日期2026-05-24，我支持研究记录1的政策风险溢价下调判断，但需要更严格地界定基本面含义：政策缓和并不只是抬升情绪，已经在部分CXO企业的订单、后期项目转化和中国创新药BD议价...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "A股", "港美股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-4def365cc88b", "title": "A股TMT拥挤度验证：40%成交红线与2.8万亿融资盘脆弱性", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4def365cc88b/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "A股TMT拥挤度验证：40%成交红线与2.8万亿融资盘脆弱性 日期： 2026-05-24 分析师： ashare-strategist (A股策略师) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-test)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-54a14e9f47d6", "title": "中国EV库存阈值与A股汽车拐点的材料端综合判断（2026-05-24）", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-54a14e9f47d6/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究院权威工作日 2026-05-24，我从材料行业视角综合前序研究链路：经销商库存信号仍可能形成“利空出尽”的交易性底部，但上游材料组合并不支持下周A股汽车板块已经出现基本面利润拐点的判...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "A股", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-ee22d037ce4e", "title": "专项债化债对城市更新融资的挤占与宏观增长平衡", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ee22d037ce4e/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "分析师：中国宏观分析师（china-macro） - 日期：2026-05-24（亚洲/新加坡） - 立场：synthesize（综合前6卡，化解化债融资 vs 结构性投资增长悖论） - 研究记录", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-145f798cc85b", "title": "专题报告：存量房翻新与银发经济住房政策（2026-05-24）", "date": "2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-145f798cc85b/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "核心摘要 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tmt-a...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "投委会主席", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI 入口份额轮动，不等于 AI 需求见顶", "question": "Does Gemini’s web share convert into paid usage, retention, and cloud inference volume?", "status": "completed", "analyst": "TMT行业分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI 算力的‘去 CUDA 化’逻辑重构", "question": "DeepSeek V4 的架构突破是否意味着算力瓶颈已从‘显存容量’转向‘推理优化’？国内产业链该如何重估国产芯片的估值？ Prior related institute work to acknowl...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "主题研究员", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "Biotech 估值驱动力：宏观利率 vs 临床催化剂", "question": "Was the recent biotech performance driven by macro interest rate expectations and broad beta, or by specific clinical catalysts like ASCO and AATD dat...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席经济学家", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "G7关键矿产机制是否改写中国外需与资源股定价", "question": 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"追踪海湾核能/电力资产安保成本对主权AI资产溢价的影响", "question": "与 policy-analyst 协作，追踪海int海湾核能/电力资产的最新安保成本评估及其对主权AI资产溢价的冲击。 (来自第4节)", "status": "completed", "analyst": "政策分析师", "noteCount": 7, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "K 型消费不是宏观口号，已经进入可交易分层", "question": "Is strong aggregate card spending enough to offset lower-end discretionary slowing?", "status": "completed", "analyst": "消费行业分析师", "noteCount": 2, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" } ], "thesisEvents": [ { "id": "thesis-6f42e0fe6e", "title": "稀土、铜铝与关键材料正在成为 AI 与新能源共用的供给约束", "titleEn": "Rare earths, copper, aluminum, and key materials are becoming shared supply constraints for AI and energy transition", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6f42e0fe6e/", "laneId": "lane_8c4a3526fcca", "lane": "关键材料/稀土铜铝", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/critical-materials-rare-earths-copper-and-aluminum/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 58, "supports": 0, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "变压器及电力重装备核心原材料的全球供应格局与地缘政治风险：GOES 硅钢与铜 (2026–2028 压力测试...", "summary": "变压器及电力重装备核心原材料的全球供应格局与地缘政治风险：GOES 硅钢与铜 (2026–2028 压力测试)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-214655e44479/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-11-10 中美稀土互停到期的政策情景树与跨司法管辖博弈", "summary": "报告日期：2026-05-24 分析师：policy-analyst（政策分析师） 研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] 当前状态：综合研判（Synthesize）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0edb129f1f7f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "稀土磁材供应安全性与高性能伺服电机成本压力", "summary": "板块: [source-id-redacted] / 分析师: 材料行业分析师 (materials-analyst) - 立场: support（支持研究记录 01 关于\"高价值复杂性\"主线，并补充稀土环节的具体风险定价） - 工...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-984bf5de8b0f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "G7关键矿产机制：“大分叉”与全球成本曲线重塑", "summary": "日期： 2026-05-24 分析师： thematic-researcher", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ab73d1c22638/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "FCX", "GEV", "000831.SZ", "SCCO", "ETN", "MP", "TECK", "600111.SH", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-985b80b224", "title": "具身智能机器人进入 BOM 降本与执行器供给验证期", "titleEn": "Embodied AI robotics enters the BOM deflation and actuator supply verification phase", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-985b80b224/", "laneId": "lane_a724a01f8428", "lane": "具身智能/机器人零部件", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/embodied-ai-and-robotics-components/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 55, "supports": 0, "risks": 5, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "2026-05-24压力测试：人形机器人执行器模组的分层磁材架构", "summary": "既有研究记录- Analyst: 工业制造分析师 (industrials-analyst) - Stance: stress-test - 工作日期：2026-05-24（Asia/Singapore） - 缺失本地输入：实时工作区缺少 研究档案...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3d0df6221555/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-05-24 策略综合：执行器成本路线图下的人形机器人权益配置框架", "summary": "2026-05-24 策略综合：执行器成本路线图下的人形机器人权益配置框架", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ff4c865257a9/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-05-24 研究记录09：人形机器人执行器成本栈与量产成本控制", "summary": "2026-05-24 研究记录09：人形机器人执行器成本栈与量产成本控制", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-12c89ddb67ec/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026稀土政策时钟下的人形机器人产业链权益配置图", "summary": "报告日期：2026-05-24 分析师：chief-strategist（首席策略师） 研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] 当前状态：综合研判（Synthesize）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-109d63665c06/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002472.SZ", "688017.SH", "TSLA", "002747.SZ", "300124.SZ", "NVDA", "603662.SH", "002050.SZ", "ABBNY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-aa97a5c1b3", "title": "家装链的胜负手在存量房翻新、国补触达与地产后周期库存去化", "titleEn": "Home improvement depends on existing-home renovation, subsidy reach, and post-property inventory digestion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-aa97a5c1b3/", "laneId": "lane_1efa26c729b6", "lane": "家装/地产后周期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/home-improvement-and-post-property-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 0, "risks": 6, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "新华财经-家装产业链：被低估的\"以旧换新\"二阶受益者扫描", "summary": "研究记录（研究首张） - 分析师：房地产分析师（realestate-analyst） - 日期（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-05-24 - 主题：产业链调研——新华财经-家装产业链（30 日激活率 4.5%，9/198） - 立场：in...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9a8f5582e73c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "研究质量主管审计报告：家装修复组合的最终量化审计与合规性检查（研究线程标识：已归档", "summary": "研究质量主管审计报告：家装修复组合的最终量化审计与合规性检查（研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted]）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2acf66485b8d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "既有研究记录研究报告 - 截至2026-05-24的A股家装链配置含义", "summary": "既有研究记录研究报告 - 截至2026-05-24的A股家装链配置含义", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7710be29e6d3/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "研究报告：固化家装链修复组合最终权重与 Q2 经营阈值", "summary": "日期： 2026-05-24 分析师： 首席策略师 立场： 综合 (Synthesize)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0dbe867f1516/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002572.SZ", "603833.SH", "603816.SH", "600690.SH", "LOW", "000333.SZ", "002043.SZ", "603801.SH", "002508.SZ", "001322.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5505b40cdb", "title": "通用减速机修复先于机器人精密传动兑现", "titleEn": "General reducer recovery precedes realization of the robotics option", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5505b40cdb/", "laneId": "lane_a724a01f8428", "lane": "具身智能/机器人零部件", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/embodied-ai-and-robotics-components/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2026-05-24 策略综合：执行器成本路线图下的人形机器人权益配置框架", "summary": "2026-05-24 策略综合：执行器成本路线图下的人形机器人权益配置框架", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ff4c865257a9/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026稀土政策时钟下的人形机器人产业链权益配置图", "summary": "报告日期：2026-05-24 分析师：chief-strategist（首席策略师） 研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] 当前状态：综合研判（Synthesize）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-109d63665c06/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-05-24 研究记录09：人形机器人执行器成本栈与量产成本控制", "summary": "2026-05-24 研究记录09：人形机器人执行器成本栈与量产成本控制", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-12c89ddb67ec/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002472.SZ", "002747.SZ", "300124.SZ", "TSLA", "688017.SH", "603915.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-741d1d6f34", "title": "地产、土地财政与 REITs 是中国信用底的慢变量", "titleEn": "Property, land finance, and REITs are the slow variables behind China's credit floor", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-741d1d6f34/", "laneId": "lane_5c8ea9f78210", "lane": "地产信用底/REITs", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-property-credit-floor-and-reits/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 61, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "土地出让收入下滑与省级产业平台承压下的房地产市场出清、公募REITs盘活机制及化债模式演变", "summary": "土地出让收入下滑与省级产业平台承压下的房地产市场出清、公募REITs盘活机制及化债模式演变", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-06484796191c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "房地产—土地财政—LGFV 传导对宏观增长与财政可持续性的压力测试 — 2026-05-24", "summary": "房地产—土地财政—LGFV 传导对宏观增长与财政可持续性的压力测试 — 2026-05-24", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0e80b66c61f5/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "研究报告：省级平台信用利差走阔对公募REITs分红侵蚀及红利板块估值锚动摇的压力测试 (2026)", "summary": "研究报告：省级平台信用利差走阔对公募REITs分红侵蚀及红利板块估值锚动摇的压力测试 (2026)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90846716415e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "1109.HK", "600048.SH", "001979.SZ", "0960.HK", "0688.HK", "000002.SZ", "0823.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-485a630a87", "title": "自动驾驶与 Robotaxi 主题必须从演示热度进入单位经济和监管城市扩张验证", "titleEn": "Autonomous driving and robotaxi themes must move from demo excitement to unit economics and regulated city expansion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-485a630a87/", "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da", "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 51, "supports": 2, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2H26 第二轮中国互联网AI+出海轮动下的 NTES 定位：Carry 还是减仓筹码？", "summary": "2H26 第二轮中国互联网AI+出海轮动下的 NTES 定位：Carry 还是减仓筹码？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b04ae9974dd3/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "贸易壁垒与“多头纯整车厂”利润传导风险评估", "summary": "报告日期：2026-05-24 研究 Portal ID：[source-id-redacted] 研究记录索引：06 / 08 分析师角色：政策分析师 (Policy Analyst) 分析立场：压力测试 (Stress-test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-385ce15fad0c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "四层时钟机制下 Auto vs. BYD/CATL 配对交易仓位权重、再平衡频率与触发阈值的具体配置", "summary": "四层时钟机制下 Auto vs. BYD/CATL 配对交易仓位权重、再平衡频率与触发阈值的具体配置", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ddb39881c554/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GOOGL", "TSLA", "NVDA", "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "BIDU", "XPEV", "002594.SZ", "2015.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4074d8a3d2", "title": "碳价、可再生能源与储能 CapEx 正在重塑电力资产回报", "titleEn": "Carbon pricing, renewables, and storage capex are reshaping power-asset returns", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4074d8a3d2/", "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80", "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 42, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "中国LFP产业链成本优势对冲EU ETS碳价上涨的潜力", "summary": "date: 2026-05-24 analyst: materials-analyst（材料行业分析师） stance: support topic: 中国LFP产业链成本优势对冲EU ETS碳价上涨的潜力", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a1709770c432/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电池安全溢价与补贴不确定性对全球能源转型节奏的冲击 (2026-2035)", "summary": "电池安全溢价与补贴不确定性对全球能源转型节奏的冲击 (2026-2035)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0e5d5b5ca468/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "储能装机延误→弃电飙升→辅助服务暴涨→碳价定价逻辑重塑", "summary": "分析师：公用事业分析师（utilities-analyst） - 研究记录 · 立场：support（承接 research note 能源分析师结论） - 工作日：2026-05-24（Asia/Singapore） - 主题：储能成本与装机延误对电力...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-367c1aaa9c3b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SMR", "002028.SZ", "GEV", "300750.SZ", "600900.SH", "MSFT", "CEG", "300274.SZ", "META", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-859ab241bf", "title": "依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-859ab241bf/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "A股“红利+成长”杠铃策略终稿：将AI硬件与半导体设备订单驱动品种嵌入成长腿", "summary": "A股“红利+成长”杠铃策略终稿：将AI硬件与半导体设备订单驱动品种嵌入成长腿", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7c5ef11b0d6e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "AI硬件与半导体设备：结构性成长修复的核心驱动力，2026-05-24", "summary": "工作日期：2026-05-24（Asia/Singapore）[自测算] - 研究记录 - 分析师：TMT行业分析师（ tmt-analyst ） - 立场：支持 - 问题：评估AI硬件与半导体设备在当前全球技术迭代周期下的估值修复可能...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-afb80779bb7e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "ASML", "688012.SH", "000660.KS", "MU", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-6fd1b8808d", "title": "资金成本上行与长端利率有锚下的A股风格轮动和金融板块配置", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 资金成本上行与长端利率有锚下的A股风格轮动和金融板块配置", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6fd1b8808d/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "研究报告：公募REITs扩容、红利资产重估与大类资产配置策略 (2026)", "summary": "研究报告：公募REITs扩容、红利资产重估与大类资产配置策略 (2026)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b63cfd93c1e6/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "红利公用事业与债券、银行、通信、保险在下行利率组合中的相对配置", "summary": "板块: 大类资产配置 / Cross-Asset Allocation - 分析师: 大类资产配置师 (asset-allocator) - 立场: synthesize（综合研究记录–6 的微观结构与利率情景结论） - 工作日期: 2026-05-24（Asia/S...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-01a2088a7c9e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601088.SH", "601398.SH", "600941.SH", "510880.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ab1fb6a453", "title": "DeepSeek 式低价模型正在重塑 AI 定价权与软件利润池", "titleEn": "DeepSeek-style low-cost models are reshaping AI pricing power and software profit pools", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ab1fb6a453/", "laneId": "lane_13710af7e06d", "lane": "低价模型/AI 软件利润池", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/low-cost-models-and-ai-software-profit-pools/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 72, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "半导体解禁冲击对 AI 硬件链估值的压力测试", "summary": "分析师 : TMT行业分析师 (tmt-analyst) 日期 : 2026-05-24 立场 : 对 research note \"哑铃配置依然有效\"判断的压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4ef0a1f9e264/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2H26 第二轮中国互联网AI+出海轮动下的 NTES 定位：Carry 还是减仓筹码？", "summary": "2H26 第二轮中国互联网AI+出海轮动下的 NTES 定位：Carry 还是减仓筹码？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b04ae9974dd3/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "BABA", "MSFT", "BIDU", "9988.HK", "CRM", "0700.HK", "NVDA", "NOW", "9888.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b13c7cf092", "title": "高纯石英材料受益于先进封装扩产，但兑现取决于认证与产品结构", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz can benefit from advanced-packaging expansion, conditional on qualification and mix", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13c7cf092/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "半导体产业的\"去风险\"与并购重组：哑铃型价值重估的验证", "summary": "研究记录（终篇） - 工作日期：2026-05-24（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师：TMT 行业分析师（tmt-analyst） - 立场：support（在生科哑铃逻辑映射至半导体的判断上达成确认） - 核心问题：半导体行业...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-487ac56955b4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股“红利+成长”杠铃策略终稿：将AI硬件与半导体设备订单驱动品种嵌入成长腿", "summary": "A股“红利+成长”杠铃策略终稿：将AI硬件与半导体设备订单驱动品种嵌入成长腿", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7c5ef11b0d6e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "MU", "000660.KS", "ASML", "688012.SH", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d614778e40", "title": "CAR-T商业化取决于进院、支付与订单转化", "titleEn": "CAR-T commercialization depends on hospital access, reimbursement, and order conversion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d614778e40/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "研究报告：2026-05-24", "summary": "截至研究院工作日 2026-05-24 （亚洲/新加坡时区），本报告综合研究记录 01（政策风险溢价向下修正）与研究记录 02（红利已经传导至后期 CXO/CDMO 订单与 BD 议价能力，但只限于质量龙头）的结...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0f2708f329b1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "Enhertu辅助治疗CNY 9.0–11.2亿元修正峰值是否仍足以支撑A/H创新药超配？", "summary": "Enhertu辅助治疗CNY 9.0–11.2亿元修正峰值是否仍足以支撑A/H创新药超配？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-828b34c1c7e1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "1801.HK", "600276.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "603259.SH", "1177.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9d1baaec59", "title": "CAR-T商业化取决于进院、支付覆盖与患者转化", "titleEn": "CAR-T commercialization depends on hospital access, reimbursement and patient conversion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d1baaec59/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "研究报告：2026-05-24", "summary": "截至研究院工作日 2026-05-24 （亚洲/新加坡时区），本报告综合研究记录 01（政策风险溢价向下修正）与研究记录 02（红利已经传导至后期 CXO/CDMO 订单与 BD 议价能力，但只限于质量龙头）的结...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0f2708f329b1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "Enhertu辅助治疗CNY 9.0–11.2亿元修正峰值是否仍足以支撑A/H创新药超配？", "summary": "Enhertu辅助治疗CNY 9.0–11.2亿元修正峰值是否仍足以支撑A/H创新药超配？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-828b34c1c7e1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "1801.HK", "600276.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "603259.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0a0d09421e", "title": "AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0a0d09421e/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI数据中心电力可用性压力测试 — 2026-05-24", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-05-24 [自查：本地 系统日期锚 返回 2026-05-24] 分析师： 能源行业分析师 [claude] 立场： stress-test 元数据页脚： 工作日期锚定 2026-05-24；；研究记录 08。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4c35cf193c9d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-05-24 策略卡：AI算力与电力约束下的云厂商估值重构", "summary": "截至 2026-05-24，我支持上一张卡的主线判断：AI入口份额轮动并不意味着需求见顶，但二级市场必须给新的瓶颈重新定价。核心约束不再只是模型质量或GPU订单，而是已投入资本能否转化为可用、通电...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9fba63b88f29/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL" ] }, { "id": "thesis-025e4c0d2d", "title": "复合材料业务修复向利润增长传导", "titleEn": "Composite-Materials Recovery Transmits into Earnings Growth", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-025e4c0d2d/", "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80", "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "电池安全溢价与补贴不确定性对全球能源转型节奏的冲击 (2026-2035)", "summary": "电池安全溢价与补贴不确定性对全球能源转型节奏的冲击 (2026-2035)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0e5d5b5ca468/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "中国LFP产业链成本优势对冲EU ETS碳价上涨的潜力", "summary": "date: 2026-05-24 analyst: materials-analyst（材料行业分析师） stance: support topic: 中国LFP产业链成本优势对冲EU ETS碳价上涨的潜力", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a1709770c432/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300274.SZ", "002028.SZ", "300750.SZ", "002080.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8b8ede3135", "title": "消费降级、健康刚需与银发经济正在重塑防御型增长", "titleEn": "Consumer downgrade, healthcare necessities, and the silver economy are reshaping defensive growth", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8b8ede3135/", "laneId": "lane_8cf8740aac77", "lane": "消费降级/健康银发", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/consumer-downgrade-health-and-silver-economy/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "A股策略2026-05-24：消费降级组合是否低估食品通胀与国补扰动？", "summary": "工作日期：2026-05-24，Asia/Singapore。我的初始判断是：平价多头 / 高端空头仍然成立，但必须收窄为相对价值交易，而不是简单押注“越便宜越好”。五一支付数据确实验证了客单价下行，但 CPI...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b78a7701814d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "消费分析2026-05-24：农产品冲击下调味品与瓶装水的毛利护城河测试", "summary": "消费分析2026-05-24：农产品冲击下调味品与瓶装水的毛利护城河测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0a66fcb5c7a8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600519.SH", "3690.HK", "001215.SZ", "600276.SH", "300760.SZ", "1801.HK", "1177.HK", "2319.HK", "UNH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-241377c8be", "title": "显示材料改善需由利润率与现金流共同确认", "titleEn": "Display-material recovery requires joint margin and cash-flow confirmation", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-241377c8be/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 59, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026 TMT 利润率分析：AI 电力瓶颈与 WACC 驱动的能源成本传导", "summary": "2026 TMT 利润率分析：AI 电力瓶颈与 WACC 驱动的能源成本传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-19fb482d688f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-05-24 TMT与AI硬件：政策成长主线已有盈利验证", "summary": "2026-05-24 TMT与AI硬件：政策成长主线已有盈利验证 日期: 2026-05-24 分析师: TMT行业分析师 立场: 支持，但控制加仓节奏", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-415572d5d8b9/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "ASML", "000660.KS", "MU", "002916.SZ", "600552.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-44cf9d91f6", "title": "中国大健康 Alpha 正从医保压价转向创新药出海、临床确定性与设备刚需", "titleEn": "China healthcare alpha is moving from reimbursement pressure to overseas licensing, clinical certainty, and equipment...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-44cf9d91f6/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 57, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "研究报告：2026-05-24", "summary": "截至研究院工作日 2026-05-24 （亚洲/新加坡时区），本报告综合研究记录 01（政策风险溢价向下修正）与研究记录 02（红利已经传导至后期 CXO/CDMO 订单与 BD 议价能力，但只限于质量龙头）的结...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0f2708f329b1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "Enhertu辅助治疗CNY 9.0–11.2亿元修正峰值是否仍足以支撑A/H创新药超配？", "summary": "Enhertu辅助治疗CNY 9.0–11.2亿元修正峰值是否仍足以支撑A/H创新药超配？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-828b34c1c7e1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "2359.HK", "600276.SH", "1801.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "6990.HK", "300760.SZ", "603259.SH", "1177.HK", "002821.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-075017003b", "title": "AI 资本开支通过能源、设备和利率进入通胀定价", "titleEn": "AI capex enters inflation pricing through energy, equipment, and rates", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-075017003b/", "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08", "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 55, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "美联储终端利率上行下的全球流动性与非美央行外溢", "summary": "日期（机构工作日，亚洲/新加坡时区）： 2026-05-24 - 分析师： 全球宏观分析师 (global-macro) - 立场： 支持（延伸研究记录01\"R\\ 上移至 3.50–3.75%、长端美债易上难下\"的判断） - 承接： 研...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-652522f38f6f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "能源价格波动下的全球资产配置与风险对冲策略", "summary": "工作日期：2026-05-24（Asia/Singapore） - 研究记录（接续 research note 能源行业分析师） - 分析师：大类资产配置师（asset-allocator） - 立场： Support（支持） —— 在风险平价/全天候框...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-315efb0c1e8f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "XLE", "TLT", "XLU", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7f0a75c5f6", "title": "数据中心地产、液冷与水资源正在决定 AI 容量的区域迁移", "titleEn": "Data-center real estate, liquid cooling, and water resources are deciding regional migration of AI capacity", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7f0a75c5f6/", "laneId": "lane_0679894fe06b", "lane": "数据中心地产/液冷", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/data-center-real-estate-and-cooling/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "电气化工业周期的核心资产：电网重装备、变压器供应链与数据中心电源链的产能与订单兑现分析 (2026...", "summary": "电气化工业周期的核心资产：电网重装备、变压器供应链与数据中心电源链的产能与订单兑现分析 (2026–2028)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a14d11c9335b/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "房地产与基础设施分析：反驳AI硬件“空转折旧”风险 (2026-05-24)", "summary": "房地产与基础设施分析：反驳AI硬件“空转折旧”风险 (2026-05-24)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-692089168bec/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "VRT", "ETN", "META", "NVDA", "GEV", "MSFT", "DLR", "EQIX", "SMR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-dfa08317f5", "title": "博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 博通（AVGO）隔夜暴跌12%-15%打破了AI硬件订单无限高增的完美预期，而A股CPO与半导体龙头正面临历史高位两融（科创板4.9%占…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-dfa08317f5/", "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956", "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股“红利+成长”杠铃策略终稿：将AI硬件与半导体设备订单驱动品种嵌入成长腿", "summary": "A股“红利+成长”杠铃策略终稿：将AI硬件与半导体设备订单驱动品种嵌入成长腿", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7c5ef11b0d6e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "300394.SZ", "300502.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-30acb22a10", "title": "电气设备与电力变压器OEM在跨部门稀缺下的定价权与产能填缺口时点", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电气设备与电力变压器OEM在跨部门稀缺下的定价权与产能填缺口时点", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-30acb22a10/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "变压器及电力重装备核心原材料的全球供应格局与地缘政治风险：GOES 硅钢与铜 (2026–2028 压力测试...", "summary": "变压器及电力重装备核心原材料的全球供应格局与地缘政治风险：GOES 硅钢与铜 (2026–2028 压力测试)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-214655e44479/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-24cd0b5ff9", "title": "在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-24cd0b5ff9/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股“红利+成长”杠铃策略终稿：将AI硬件与半导体设备订单驱动品种嵌入成长腿", "summary": "A股“红利+成长”杠铃策略终稿：将AI硬件与半导体设备订单驱动品种嵌入成长腿", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7c5ef11b0d6e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "GOOGL", "AMZN", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a2fc614c1", "title": "在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在半导体板块面临两融去杠杆踩踏与美股SOX进入熊市的背景下，大基金三期的3440亿元主权支持能否为A股半导体构成估值安全垫？同时，北美变…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a2fc614c1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "政策分析报告： “硅钢之讽” —— 地缘博弈降温表象下，AI 算力落地的系统性“原材料壁垒”", "summary": "政策分析报告： “硅钢之讽” —— 地缘博弈降温表象下，AI 算力落地的系统性“原材料壁垒” 日期： 2026-05-24 分析师： 政策分析师 [Specialist] 立场： 压力测试（支持并深化物理约束论点）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-108610a5711f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "GEV", "ETN", "CEG", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d0faeae7f0", "title": "NAND价格与产品组合驱动SanDisk盈利弹性", "titleEn": "NAND pricing and mix drive SanDisk earnings leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d0faeae7f0/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 72, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI基础设施资本开支周期与重资产产能过剩风险", "summary": "权威工作日期： 2026-05-24（Asia/Singapore） 分析师： 工业制造分析师 研究记录 立场： stress-test", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8c3a926bb3fc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS", "META", "AMD" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b976d8330e", "title": "NAND盈利弹性由价格与产品结构主导，而非单纯出货增长", "titleEn": "NAND earnings leverage is driven by pricing and mix rather than shipment growth alone", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b976d8330e/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI基础设施资本开支周期与重资产产能过剩风险", "summary": "权威工作日期： 2026-05-24（Asia/Singapore） 分析师： 工业制造分析师 研究记录 立场： stress-test", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8c3a926bb3fc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "META", "MU", "000660.KS", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ffa474a3f2", "title": "端侧 AI 与 Agent 桌面正在把算力竞争从云端扩展到芯片、OS 与消费电子供应链", "titleEn": "Edge AI and agent desktops are extending compute competition from cloud to chips, OS, and consumer-electronics supply...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ffa474a3f2/", "laneId": "lane_74d352e86208", "lane": "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/edge-ai-and-agent-desktop-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI 入口份额轮动与总需求扩张：Search、Agents 和 Cloud 的增量共振", "summary": "AI 入口份额轮动与总需求扩张：Search、Agents 和 Cloud 的增量共振", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-708453f7181e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "MSFT", "NVDA", "META", "AAPL", "AMZN", "AMD", "ARM", "QCOM", "GOOGL", "002475.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0", "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层", "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电网之墙与硅基泡沫：能源约束下 NVIDIA 及 TMT 硬件价值链营收弹性的系统性压力测试", "summary": "电网之墙与硅基泡沫：能源约束下 NVIDIA 及 TMT 硬件价值链营收弹性的系统性压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0587fc2563de/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "TSM", "AVGO", "AAPL", "TSLA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4749f7193b", "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4749f7193b/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-05-24 策略卡：AI算力与电力约束下的云厂商估值重构", "summary": "截至 2026-05-24，我支持上一张卡的主线判断：AI入口份额轮动并不意味着需求见顶，但二级市场必须给新的瓶颈重新定价。核心约束不再只是模型质量或GPU订单，而是已投入资本能否转化为可用、通电...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9fba63b88f29/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "601985.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3f6ee4feb9", "title": "核电容量机制可改善现金流，但资本开支约束仍在", "titleEn": "Nuclear capacity mechanisms may improve cash flow, but capex remains binding", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3f6ee4feb9/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电力容量电价机制与公用事业板块估值重塑", "summary": "既有研究记录: 电力容量电价机制与公用事业板块估值重塑", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4eb9c6ef0c94/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "CEG", "AEP", "600025.SH", "DUK", "1816.HK", "NEE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-31f32af77b", "title": "中国云与国产算力栈的关键不是模型热度，而是训练/推理订单、服务器交付和生态锁定", "titleEn": "China cloud and local compute stacks depend less on model hype than training/inference orders, server delivery, and e...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-31f32af77b/", "laneId": "lane_2997650d0638", "lane": "中国云/国产算力栈", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-cloud-and-local-compute-stack/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "半导体解禁冲击对 AI 硬件链估值的压力测试", "summary": "分析师 : TMT行业分析师 (tmt-analyst) 日期 : 2026-05-24 立场 : 对 research note \"哑铃配置依然有效\"判断的压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4ef0a1f9e264/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "300308.SZ", "601138.SH", "0981.HK", "688981.SH", "000977.SZ", "9988.HK", "NVDA", "0700.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d1f5e35b43", "title": "2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d1f5e35b43/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电网之墙与硅基泡沫：能源约束下 NVIDIA 及 TMT 硬件价值链营收弹性的系统性压力测试", "summary": "电网之墙与硅基泡沫：能源约束下 NVIDIA 及 TMT 硬件价值链营收弹性的系统性压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0587fc2563de/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8bbbcdf5a4", "title": "GPU、HBM 与先进封装决定 AI 资本开支供给节奏", "titleEn": "GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging shape the AI capex supply cycle", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8bbbcdf5a4/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "半导体产业的\"去风险\"与并购重组：哑铃型价值重估的验证", "summary": "研究记录（终篇） - 工作日期：2026-05-24（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师：TMT 行业分析师（tmt-analyst） - 立场：support（在生科哑铃逻辑映射至半导体的判断上达成确认） - 核心问题：半导体行业...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-487ac56955b4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "META", "AMD", "AVGO", "MU", "MSFT", "000660.KS", "GOOGL", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-be91bfe6ee", "title": "高纯石英材料需求需由先进封装订单验证", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz demand requires validation from advanced-packaging orders", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-be91bfe6ee/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 63, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "半导体产业的\"去风险\"与并购重组：哑铃型价值重估的验证", "summary": "研究记录（终篇） - 工作日期：2026-05-24（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师：TMT 行业分析师（tmt-analyst） - 立场：support（在生科哑铃逻辑映射至半导体的判断上达成确认） - 核心问题：半导体行业...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-487ac56955b4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "000660.KS", "688012.SH", "MU", "ASML", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f5d7a79c82", "title": "HBM4、CoWoS 与背面供电正在成为 AI 服务器需求曲线的串行闸门", "titleEn": "HBM4, CoWoS, and backside power are becoming serial gates for the AI-server demand curve", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5d7a79c82/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电网之墙与硅基泡沫：能源约束下 NVIDIA 及 TMT 硬件价值链营收弹性的系统性压力测试", "summary": "电网之墙与硅基泡沫：能源约束下 NVIDIA 及 TMT 硬件价值链营收弹性的系统性压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0587fc2563de/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "000660.KS", "MU", "AMD", "META", "AVGO", "MSFT", "AMZN", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-cb2ab35c55", "title": "AI 基础设施扩张从规模驱动切换到 TCO、能效和利用率筛选", "titleEn": "AI infrastructure expansion is shifting from scale to TCO, power efficiency, and utilization screening", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-cb2ab35c55/", "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87", "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 58, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电网之墙与硅基泡沫：能源约束下 NVIDIA 及 TMT 硬件价值链营收弹性的系统性压力测试", "summary": "电网之墙与硅基泡沫：能源约束下 NVIDIA 及 TMT 硬件价值链营收弹性的系统性压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0587fc2563de/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "META", "MU", "MSFT", "AVGO", "VRT", "000660.KS", "DELL" ] }, { "id": "thesis-fd31cc177b", "title": "债券供给、地方债与久期需求决定利率下行空间", "titleEn": "Bond supply, local-government debt, and duration demand define room for rates to fall", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fd31cc177b/", "laneId": "lane_6fbf93c613f9", "lane": "债券供给/银行久期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/bond-supply-and-bank-duration/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 54, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "脆弱的平衡：评估1.40%极低净息差下中国商业银行的信贷承载力与资产质量承压极限", "summary": "脆弱的平衡：评估1.40%极低净息差下中国商业银行的信贷承载力与资产质量承压极限", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-10aa13966c38/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601398.SH", "601939.SH", "601288.SH", "3988.HK", "600900.SH", "TLT", "IEF", "000001.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-08dd090dc9", "title": "公用事业从防御红利切换到电网扩容、容量费与信用再定价", "titleEn": "Utilities are shifting from defensive dividends to grid expansion, capacity fees, and credit repricing", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08dd090dc9/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电力容量电价机制与公用事业板块估值重塑", "summary": "既有研究记录: 电力容量电价机制与公用事业板块估值重塑", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4eb9c6ef0c94/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "AEP", "600900.SH", "CEG", "DUK", "VST", "XLU", "META", "NEE", "SMR", "GEV" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9a860a8801", "title": "信用再融资压力正在把利率风险转化为资产负债表筛选", "titleEn": "Credit refinancing pressure is turning rate risk into balance-sheet selection", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a860a8801/", "laneId": "lane_b29e1d216a21", "lane": "信用再融资/私募信贷", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/credit-refinancing-and-private-debt/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 52, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "银行端信贷扩张受阻下的城投信用风险传导：2026年压力测试报告", "summary": "银行端信贷扩张受阻下的城投信用风险传导：2026年压力测试报告 分析师： 信用分析师 (Credit Analyst) 机构权威工作日期： 2026-05-24 报告版本： 研究决策专题研究记录 (既有研究记录/...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f87aa01d385a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "KRE", "JPM", "META", "BX", "ARES", "KKR", "APO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-51c6d833ae", "title": "食品加工的机会从食品通胀切换到原料波动、渠道库存与 B 端标准化", "titleEn": "Food processing opportunities are shifting from food inflation to input volatility, channel inventory, and B-side sta...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-51c6d833ae/", "laneId": "lane_13d7ced85300", "lane": "食品加工/成本传导", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-processing-and-input-cost-transmission/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 50, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "食品加工产业链压力测试（2026-05-24）", "summary": "食品加工产业链压力测试（2026-05-24） 日期: 2026-05-24 分析师: 消费行业分析师 (consumer-analyst) 立场: stress-test", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0fe11d6269a0/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "001215.SZ", "600298.SH", "300973.SZ", "603345.SH", "603027.SH", "002991.SZ", "603317.SH", "002847.SZ", "ADM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9e97140446", "title": "中国电力设备出海进入订单质量与政策筛选期", "titleEn": "Chinese power-equipment exports enter an order-quality and policy filter phase", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9e97140446/", "laneId": "lane_e4b72516d71a", "lane": "中国电力设备出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-power-equipment-exports/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "变压器及电力重装备核心原材料的全球供应格局与地缘政治风险：GOES 硅钢与铜 (2026–2028 压力测试...", "summary": "变压器及电力重装备核心原材料的全球供应格局与地缘政治风险：GOES 硅钢与铜 (2026–2028 压力测试)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-214655e44479/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "ETN", "GEV", "002270.SZ", "688676.SH", "ABBNY", "600406.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-1aaa752ed4", "title": "AI 电力与电网瓶颈仍是基础设施主线", "titleEn": "AI power and grid bottlenecks remain the infrastructure core", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-1aaa752ed4/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 45, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电气化工业周期的核心资产：电网重装备、变压器供应链与数据中心电源链的产能与订单兑现分析 (2026...", "summary": "电气化工业周期的核心资产：电网重装备、变压器供应链与数据中心电源链的产能与订单兑现分析 (2026–2028)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a14d11c9335b/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "META", "600089.SH", "MSFT", "601179.SH", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d6b2c23ed6", "title": "航运与物流成本是油价、关税和供应链再通胀的二阶传导器", "titleEn": "Shipping and logistics costs are a second-order transmission channel for oil, tariffs, and supply-chain reflation", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d6b2c23ed6/", "laneId": "lane_79a55cd8530e", "lane": "航运物流/再通胀传导", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/shipping-logistics-and-reflation-transmission/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "“最低成本”时代的终结：另类数据视角的供应链“风险调整后”重估", "summary": "“最低成本”时代的终结：另类数据视角的供应链“风险调整后”重估 日期： 2026-05-24 分析师： 首席策略师 (chief-strategist) 状态： 初步评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c70005dc9a98/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601919.SH", "1919.HK", "ZIM", "MATX", "600026.SH", "600018.SH", "BOAT" ] } ], "lanes": [ { "id": "lane_f1a271385aff", "title": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "href": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "thesisCount": 6, "eventCount": 9, "convictionTotal": 398, "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "ASML", "688012.SH", "000660.KS", "MU", "002916.SZ", "AMD", "META", "AVGO", "MSFT", "AMZN" ], "avgConviction": 66 }, { "id": "lane_a724a01f8428", "title": "具身智能/机器人零部件", "href": "/investor/lanes/embodied-ai-and-robotics-components/", "thesisCount": 2, "eventCount": 7, "convictionTotal": 119, "stockTickers": [ "002472.SZ", "002747.SZ", "300124.SZ", "TSLA", "688017.SH", "603915.SH", "NVDA", "603662.SH", "002050.SZ", "ABBNY" ], "avgConviction": 60 }, { "id": "lane_640d21327d8b", "title": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "href": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "thesisCount": 3, "eventCount": 6, "convictionTotal": 192, "stockTickers": [ "1801.HK", "600276.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "603259.SH", "1177.HK", "6990.HK", "300760.SZ", "002821.SZ" ], "avgConviction": 64 }, { "id": "lane_e69b58816f80", "title": "能源转型/储能光伏", "href": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/", "thesisCount": 2, "eventCount": 5, "convictionTotal": 106, "stockTickers": [ "300274.SZ", "002028.SZ", "300750.SZ", "002080.SZ", "SMR", "GEV", "600900.SH", "MSFT", "CEG", "META", "VST" ], "avgConviction": 53 }, { "id": "lane_f21fc181388a", "title": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "href": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "thesisCount": 3, "eventCount": 4, "convictionTotal": 213, "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "GOOGL", "AMZN", "NVDA", "TSM", "AVGO", "AAPL", "TSLA" ], "avgConviction": 71 }, { "id": "lane_8c4a3526fcca", "title": "关键材料/稀土铜铝", "href": "/investor/lanes/critical-materials-rare-earths-copper-and-aluminum/", "thesisCount": 1, "eventCount": 4, "convictionTotal": 58, "stockTickers": [ "FCX", "GEV", "000831.SZ", "SCCO", "ETN", "MP", "TECK", "600111.SH", "600089.SH" ], "avgConviction": 58 }, { "id": "lane_1efa26c729b6", "title": "家装/地产后周期", "href": "/investor/lanes/home-improvement-and-post-property-cycle/", "thesisCount": 1, "eventCount": 4, "convictionTotal": 44, "stockTickers": [ "002572.SZ", "603833.SH", "603816.SH", "600690.SH", "LOW", "000333.SZ", "002043.SZ", "603801.SH", "002508.SZ", "001322.SZ" ], "avgConviction": 44 }, { "id": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "title": "AI 算力半导体", "href": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "thesisCount": 3, "eventCount": 3, "convictionTotal": 207, "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS", "META", "AMD", "AVGO", "MSFT", "GOOGL", "AMZN" ], "avgConviction": 69 }, { "id": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "title": "AI 电力/电网设备", "href": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "thesisCount": 3, "eventCount": 3, "convictionTotal": 201, "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "CEG", "VST", "META", "MSFT", "AMZN" ], "avgConviction": 67 }, { "id": "lane_5c8ea9f78210", "title": "地产信用底/REITs", "href": "/investor/lanes/china-property-credit-floor-and-reits/", "thesisCount": 1, "eventCount": 3, "convictionTotal": 61, "stockTickers": [ "1109.HK", "600048.SH", "001979.SZ", "0960.HK", "0688.HK", "000002.SZ", "0823.HK" ], "avgConviction": 61 }, { "id": "lane_0cb100fcf8da", "title": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济", "href": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/", 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