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"archive-75cf239c28f7", "title": "碳交易与电价上行背景下A股高耗能板块与公用事业板块的利润再分配及估值重塑（2026-2027年）", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-75cf239c28f7/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "碳交易与电价上行背景下A股高耗能板块与公用事业板块的利润再分配及估值重塑（2026-2027年） 报告日期： 2026-05-21 [S1] 作者： A股策略师 (ashare-strategist) 研究门户共享研究会议 — 研究...", "tags": [ "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-b49de1fcd2f6", "title": "美元叙事分裂：Fed 鹰派、弱 DXY 与日元干预守望", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b49de1fcd2f6/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "作者：外汇策略师（ fx-strategist ） - 工作日（亚洲/新加坡）：2026-05-21 - 行情快照时点：2026-05-20 纽约收盘 - 立场：initial / 框架定调卡 - 受众：晨会宏观桌、外汇交易、大类资产配置", "tags": [ "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-285c8c40b66a", "title": "“零售+出海+AI”溢价体系下的消费龙头估值修复路径", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-285c8c40b66a/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "作者：消费行业分析师 (consumer-analyst) 权威工作日：2026-05-21（新加坡/北京时间） 研究课题：产业链调研 — 新华财经-家装产业链（30日激活率 4.5%, 9/198） 当前研究记录 研究立场：支持...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-f879214bc170", "title": "AI算力基建物理约束下的跨资产配置与大类资产重估", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f879214bc170/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "作者：大类资产配置师 (asset-allocator) 权威工作日：2026-05-21（新加坡/北京时间） 当前课题：AI算力基建物理约束下的跨资产配置与大类资产重估 研究立场：压力测试 (Stress-Test) / 评估由...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-4de30949aa4a", "title": "2026-05-21 策略综合：A股杠铃右腿中铜、铝配置权重再评估", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4de30949aa4a/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日 2026-05-21 （Asia/Singapore）[自测算：系统日期锚 返回 2026-05-21 ]，我对前序研究采取 synthesize：Warsh 鹰派压力情景仍要求保留右腿杠铃，但中国地产已从需求...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-8d81cf1e5607", "title": "行业定位", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8d81cf1e5607/", "analyst": "深研主编", "analystId": "research-editor", "category": "综合编审", "excerpt": "本报告唯一研究对象为 SPY,QQQ,IWM,NVDA。 SPY 、 QQQ 、 IWM 是 ETF 产品，行业定位采用 ETF 行业的资产规模、费率、流动性、指数授权和跟踪能力口径； NVDA 是经营公司，行业定位采用数据中心...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-1f77c995e275", "title": "霍尔木兹海峡地缘冲击对美国通胀与衰退风险的系统性传导：滞胀压力测试", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1f77c995e275/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "既有研究记录 - 分析师： global-macro (全球宏观分析师，Primary) - 工作日： 2026-05-21 （Asia/Singapore） - 主题： 霍尔木兹海峡地缘冲击对美国通胀与衰退风险的系统性传导 -...", "tags": [ "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-d8265dbd1ffb", "title": "变压器及GOES缺口对AI服务器集成商2026年毛利及交付节奏的影响研究——基于机架架构与采购模式的压...", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": 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(Support) 规范...", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-2bb2baeae69a", "title": "研究报告：质量器械在大健康组合中的资金来源与风险预算", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2bb2baeae69a/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究报告：质量器械在大健康组合中的资金来源与风险预算 日期： 2026-05-21 分析师： 大类资产配置师 ( asset-allocator ) 立场： 合成 / 建议 (Synthesize / Recommendation)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-834e571fd638", "title": "宏观研究报告：成本红利持续性压力测试（2026 H2）", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-834e571fd638/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "宏观研究报告：成本红利持续性压力测试（2026 H2） 日期： 2026-05-21 分析师： 农业行业分析师 (Agriculture Analyst) 主题： 成本红利持续性压力测试：生猪及粮油供给端回升对食品加工利润空...", "tags": [ "通胀", "宏观", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-66b4890f8261", "title": "既有研究记录· 首席经济学家 · 压力测试", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": 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分析师：材料行业分析师（materials-analyst） - 工作日：2026-05-21（亚洲/新加坡）", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-c74df42e4576", "title": "美国进口前置抢运与 Q3 镜像冲击 — 2026-05-21", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c74df42e4576/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日期 2026-05-21，我支持本报告的初始判断，但需要先校正一个日期口径：可引用的关税时钟不是“6 月底法定到期”，而是美国 Section 122 临时进口税，自 2026-02-24 美东时间 12:...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-af135bdef106", "title": "首席策略专题：AI基础设施效率指标对美股行业配置的再定价", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-af135bdef106/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "首席策略专题：AI基础设施效率指标对美股行业配置的再定价 报告发布日期：2026-05-21 (Asia/Singapore) 作者：首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) 研判态度：综合研判 (Synthesize)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-93de2533dc73", "title": "研究记录 中国宏观分析师 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只保留为有上限、有催化剂约束的期权型仓位；更大的资本权重放在主权/国资电力现金流锚上，因为 Rocket Lab 的需求证据很强，但 Mynari...", "tags": [ "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-6dd63232d853", "title": "2026-05-21 食品加工利润率的能源成本波动压力测试", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6dd63232d853/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日：2026-05-21，Asia/Singapore。本报告对前序“渠道修复”逻辑做压力测试：能源与电力成本波动会削弱食品加工利润率修复，但截至2026-05-21，证据还不支持“完全抵消”的结论，除非油价冲...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-37e6fdba5136", "title": "CRISPR 2.0 临床管线差异化及其基本面脱钩能力评估", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-37e6fdba5136/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "CRISPR 2.0 临床管线差异化及其基本面脱钩能力评估 生物科技与量化策略研究院 报告日期： 2026-05-21 [基准日期] 首席分析师： 生物科技分析师 ( biotech-analyst ) 研究来源：已归档", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-6b724d223976", "title": "公用事业产业链初筛 — 2026-05-21", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6b724d223976/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至本院工作日 2026-05-21，本报告片筛查的是一个内部 30 日激活率仅 24/205、即 11.7% 的低覆盖公用事业产业链 [WB]。我支持开启研究队列，但第一轮应收窄范围：优先看水务和环保公用事业的现...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-24459e24fa1c", "title": "算力板块拥挤度分解 - 2026-05-24", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-24459e24fa1c/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "以研究所工作日 2026-05-24（Asia/Singapore）为锚，本报告是首张研究记录，因此是在综合初始问题而不是复核既有研究记录；所查询的新加坡世界时钟页面也显示当地日期为 2026年5月24日（周日）[...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-f3393950437e", "title": "食品加工产业链调研队列 — 2026-05-21", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f3393950437e/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日 2026-05-21，我支持为中国食品加工产业链开启选择性深挖队列，因为内部研究简报显示，该产业链近 30 日仅激活 18/241 次，激活率为 7.5% [S0]。这不是一个无差别的必需消费买...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "A股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-4522cde8465a", "title": "AI算力长久期 vs. 低久期哑铃：Warsh时代美债利率飙升下的大类资产配置策略", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4522cde8465a/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "AI算力长久期 vs. 低久期哑铃：Warsh时代美债利率飙升下的大类资产配置策略 研究日期： 2026-05-21 报告作者： 大类资产配置师 (Asset Allocator) 当前立场： 综合合成 / 立场转向", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-7a5d16ce8c17", "title": "中国创新药与高端医疗器械出海的临床与监管风险压力测试", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a5d16ce8c17/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究院权威工作日： 2026-05-21 分析师： 生物科技分析师 ( biotech-analyst ) 立场： 压力测试 (基于 既有研究记录的分析结论，对国内创新与“出海”逻辑进行严苛的监管与临床实证压力...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-177b155ea721", "title": "汇率极端波动对\"固定汇率转换\"重组协议的承压能力分析", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-177b155ea721/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "汇率极端波动对\"固定汇率转换\"重组协议的承压能力分析 日期： 2026-05-21 分析师： fx-strategist 立场： 压力测试（stress-test，承接 research note 信用分析师的结论）", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-fa03c00ef18c", "title": "基于水-土-食-能硬约束修正下的全能型大类资产配置组合优化与防御性仓位再平衡", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fa03c00ef18c/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "基于水-土-食-能硬约束修正下的全能型大类资产配置组合优化与防御性仓位再平衡 日期: 2026-05-21 分析师: 大类资产配置师 ( asset-allocator ) 立场: 综合 (Synthesize)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-41b232d90e58", "title": "太空经济资本流向：工业化阶段的到来", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-41b232d90e58/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "执行摘要 在 2026 年第一季度，太空经济经历了历史性的资本激增，打破了此前的记录，标志着该行业正式迈入“工业化阶段” [S1]。继 2025 年的强劲复苏（并超越 2021 年的历史高点 [S5]）之后...", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-419e74261b2a", "title": "研究报告：A股AI硬件拥挤度微观结构分析 (2026-05-21)", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-419e74261b2a/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "执行摘要 截至2026年5月21日，A股AI硬件板块（光模块、AI服务器、PCB及芯片）的微观结构呈现出“情绪高涨、杠杆极致、流动性分化”的特征。虽然北向资金继续增持中际旭创（300308）等核心“质量...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "A股", "港美股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-5af11084b9e5", "title": "研究记录09外汇压力测试 - 2026-05-21", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5af11084b9e5/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "在本所工作日期2026-05-21，我对前序研究结论进行压力测试：若国有大行在2027年下半年开始确认收储贷款潜在不良，USD/CNY远期掉期点是否会持续走阔并破坏人民币稳定预期 [自测算：沿用前序研究...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-df844bf5f4b5", "title": "2026-05-21 内部运营官综合：7.20 政策阻力位与房企人民币现金流错位", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-df844bf5f4b5/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "2026-05-21 内部运营官综合：7.20 政策阻力位与房企人民币现金流错位 工作日期： 2026-05-21 分析师角色： operations 研究立场： 综合（synthesize） 既有研究记录", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-5a0d6936b00b", "title": "AI硬件配置（14%）在UST 5.25%压力下的资本开支与利润率韧性评估", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5a0d6936b00b/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "AI硬件配置（14%）在UST 5.25%压力下的资本开支与利润率韧性评估 日期： 2026-05-21 分析师： tmt-analyst (TMT行业分析师) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-60729a3b3c85", "title": "研究记录02 房地产压力测试 — 2026-05-21", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-60729a3b3c85/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究所工作日：2026-05-21。本工作区当前未找到上游 live 文件，因此 既有研究记录背景依据题面提供的 session snapshot 重建；本报告对 既有研究记录的判断作压力测试，而不是...", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-8113a94e906a", "title": "太空经济研究报告：太空制造能力与国防工业化进程", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8113a94e906a/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "太空经济研究报告：太空制造能力与国防工业化进程 分析师： 工业制造分析师 (高级制造与航空航天) 日期： 2026-05-21 研究记录索引： 02/08 主题： 太空制造产能扩张与国防供应链工业化评估", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-30f16aabeefb", "title": "工业供应链压力测试：电气设备成为 AI 硬件出货的终极物理瓶颈", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-30f16aabeefb/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工业供应链压力测试：电气设备成为 AI 硬件出货的终极物理瓶颈 日期： 2026-05-21 分析师： 工业制造分析师 ( industrials-analyst ) 立场： 压力测试 (证实物理制约)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-adadcb6bea83", "title": "前序研究研究报告 — 2026-05-21", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-adadcb6bea83/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日 2026-05-21，本报告综合前序逻辑：大健康配置应偏向“质量现金流”而非长久期成长，但 A 股市场结构证据尚未显示医疗器械质量龙头已经形成全面拥挤。信号更接近“可交易但需闸...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-25bfd0b2e3f9", "title": "研究讨论纪要 — 研究记录 06", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-25bfd0b2e3f9/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究讨论纪要 — 研究记录 06 研究议题： 中美 AI 基础设施竞赛的物理分化：美联储鹰派、弱美元与硬件“算力税” 研究记录主题： 算力税的硬件来源：先进工艺封锁下的能效损失与算力成本放大 作...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-336fb6eb5e9f", "title": "资产荒背景下的利率曲线与信用利差演变 — 2026-05-24", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-336fb6eb5e9f/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-05-24。立场：压力测试。作者：bond-analyst。本报告支持 既有研究记录关于银行资产负债表约束的判断，但对其市场含义做压力测试：当银行难以主动扩张信贷时，过剩流动...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-6d1be4bbb541", "title": "CXO 估值重估：工业迁移成本与长期利润率侵蚀压力测试", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6d1be4bbb541/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "日期： 2026-05-21 (Asia/Singapore) 研究记录索引： 06/08 分析师： Biotech Analyst (生物科技分析师) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-cbf02da37cf1", "title": "主权电力资产作为太空杠铃防御端的验证 - 2026-05-21", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cbf02da37cf1/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日 2026-05-21，我支持 既有研究记录的方向：主权或国资背景电力股可以作为 RKLB 这一端的防御性对冲，但组合构建应围绕现金流质量，而不是单纯追逐高股息率。最优锚点是...", "tags": [ "通胀", "A股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-b65ef96426cf", "title": "大健康产业链低覆盖筛选 - 工作日 2026-05-21", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b65ef96426cf/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日 2026-05-21，我支持把中国大健康产业链纳入后续研究队列，但应定位为自下而上的精选线索，而不是简单的行业贝塔判断。最值得跟踪的机会集中在医保扩容、出海弹性、利用率修复...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-476fd0c6589c", "title": "电网瓶颈、互联排队与降碳红线：制约AI算力电力释放的“三重屏障”", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-476fd0c6589c/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究基准日： 2026-05-21 分析师： utilities-analyst (公用事业分析师) 本期立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test — 对前序能源电力板块成长性逻辑进行压力测试)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-f299b76d76bb", "title": "A股商业航天板块流动性危机与宏观资产荒的最终综合报告", "date": "2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f299b76d76bb/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "A股商业航天板块流动性危机与宏观资产荒的最终综合报告 研究日期： 2026-05-21 作者： 中国宏观分析师 (China Macro Analyst) 立场： 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"question": "截至 2026-05-20，DXY 99.284、EUR/USD 1.1606、USD/JPY 159.05 与“Fed higher for longer、DXY 本周 +1.4%、EUR/USD 跌破 1.07”的叙事如何统一？若不能统一...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "外汇策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "美国进口前置抢运对 Q3 零售与物流链的镜像冲击", "question": "如果运价上行确实是 6 月底关税窗口前的抢运，Q3 起进口量回吐会以怎样的节奏与幅度反噬零售库存、内陆物流与港口资产?可交易组合是什么?", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "零售需求还是利润率冲击", "question": "If WMT, HD, TGT, and TJX acknowledge high fuel prices but keep revenue resilient, should the team fade the “consumer cliff” trade and prefer high-tu...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "消费行业分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "低价零售抢占增量消费，TGT/WMT不是同一笔交易", "question": "BofA卡消费与Placer客流同时指向trade-down，是否应把零售敞口从大盘必需消费切向TJX/BURL/ROST相对篮子？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "消费行业分析师", "noteCount": 7, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" } ], "thesisEvents": [ { "id": "thesis-b6f59efde4", "title": "包装油占比与原料顺价驱动利润率修复", "titleEn": "Packaged-oil mix and input-cost pass-through drive margin recovery", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b6f59efde4/", "laneId": "lane_13d7ced85300", "lane": "食品加工/成本传导", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-processing-and-input-cost-transmission/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 4, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "宏观研究报告：PPI–CPI 剪刀差与食品加工毛利率（2026 H2）", "summary": "宏观研究报告：PPI–CPI 剪刀差与食品加工毛利率（2026 H2） 日期： 2026-05-21 分析师： 中国宏观分析师 主题： 食品加工龙头的成本红利“第二段窗口”验证", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7cb4de0063e1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "消费端需求韧性与食品零售渠道修复验证", "summary": "作者：消费行业分析师（consumer-analyst） - 工作日期：2026-05-21（Asia/Singapore） - 研究记录 - 立场：support（支持研究记录 01 的核心判断） - 上游研究记录：农业行业分析师，2026-05-2...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-32a6169e4c80/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "碳市场扩围下高耗能行业利润率韧性与产能调整评估", "summary": "碳市场扩围下高耗能行业利润率韧性与产能调整评估 撰写日期：2026年5月21日 研究员：材料行业分析师 ( materials-analyst ) 前序研究立场：支持（Support）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-37996747c8a7/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "食品加工板块 2026 H2 配置策略：核心防御 + 卫星进攻的哑铃式组合", "summary": "食品加工板块 2026 H2 配置策略：核心防御 + 卫星进攻的哑铃式组合", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eb7fecfa19a1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "001215.SZ", "600298.SH", "603027.SH", "300973.SZ", "603317.SH", "002852.SZ", "002847.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9a860a8801", "title": "信用再融资压力正在把利率风险转化为资产负债表筛选", "titleEn": "Credit refinancing pressure is turning rate risk into balance-sheet selection", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a860a8801/", "laneId": "lane_b29e1d216a21", "lane": "信用再融资/私募信贷", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/credit-refinancing-and-private-debt/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 52, "supports": 1, "risks": 7, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "1.0万亿美元债务供给与高收益率下独立发电厂与数据中心REITs的信用再融资脆弱性压力测试", "summary": "1.0万亿美元债务供给与高收益率下独立发电厂与数据中心REITs的信用再融资脆弱性压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8098c096ef09/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "压力测试沃什美联储下的硬着陆论断：商业地产与区域银行为先行信号", "summary": "作者：首席经济学家 - 工作日期：2026-05-21（亚洲/新加坡） - 立场： stress-test （针对研究记录 03 关于 2026 下半年硬着陆概率 55% 的论断） - - 备注：写入时工作目录中缺少 research note...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e3814b4db4a7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "05-21 跨资产持仓清单", "summary": "Analyst: asset-allocator（primary） - 工作日期： 2026-05-21 （Asia/Singapore） - 立场： synthesize — 我方向上支持前序链条，但把它落到仓位上限，而不是做成单一宏观押注。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-215fd7074af9/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "土地与收储冲击下的宏观金融风险传导：“信用风险银行化”与商业银行净息差...", "summary": "既有研究记录: 土地与收储冲击下的宏观金融风险传导：“信用风险银行化”与商业银行净息差（NIM）挤压评估报告", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2dd2ed0fe847/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "KRE", "JPM", "META", "BX", "ARES", "KKR", "APO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5057edfa79", "title": "AI-Biology 与医疗效率改善需要从科研突破走向支付和监管兑现", "titleEn": "AI biology and healthcare productivity must move from research breakthroughs to reimbursement and regulatory proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5057edfa79/", "laneId": "lane_2eefe4e126c6", "lane": "AI 医疗/生物科技效率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-healthcare-and-biology-productivity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 48, "supports": 0, "risks": 8, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "中国创新药与高端医疗器械出海的临床与监管风险压力测试", "summary": "研究院权威工作日： 2026-05-21 分析师： 生物科技分析师 ( biotech-analyst ) 立场： 压力测试 (基于 既有研究记录的分析结论，对国内创新与“出海”逻辑进行严苛的监管与临床实证压力...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a5d16ce8c17/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026–2028年\"sequence-to-vial + 精准医疗工业栈\"主题篮子", "summary": "2026–2028年\"sequence-to-vial + 精准医疗工业栈\"主题篮子", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aa955890d9d4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "\"sequence-to-vial + 精准医疗工业栈\"主题篮子的多资产尺寸定标、因子叠合与外汇覆盖", "summary": "\"sequence-to-vial + 精准医疗工业栈\"主题篮子的多资产尺寸定标、因子叠合与外汇覆盖", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e44010f73983/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "研究会议门户 共享研究研究记录", "summary": "研究会议门户 共享研究研究记录 主题：Healthcare/Quality/Duration 重叠主题篮子的因子拥挤度与衰减风险量化评估 作者： 因子研究员 (Factor Analyst) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test) 规范日期...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-388c9814c76c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300760.SZ", "688271.SH", "300633.SZ", "688212.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "688617.SH", "DHR", "SDGR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-91cfb3e0f8", "title": "外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 外汇防御若短促且境内冲销则可控；若持续收紧离岸CNH并恢复20%远期准备金，最大二次压力会落在地产信用修复和A股两融偿还，而非银行间总量…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-91cfb3e0f8/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "房地产与LGFV信用风险向银行资产质量传导的路径与量化评估", "summary": "房地产与LGFV信用风险向银行资产质量传导的路径与量化评估 日期 : 2026-05-21 分析师 : financials-analyst 当前立场 : Support (支持 既有研究记录)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-459c958f1748/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "压力测试沃什美联储下的硬着陆论断：商业地产与区域银行为先行信号", "summary": "作者：首席经济学家 - 工作日期：2026-05-21（亚洲/新加坡） - 立场： stress-test （针对研究记录 03 关于 2026 下半年硬着陆概率 55% 的论断） - - 备注：写入时工作目录中缺少 research note...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e3814b4db4a7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股策略师报告：地产后周期资金流向分化与独立定价重估", "summary": "日期： 2026-05-21 主题： 家居、建材、装饰板块的资金流向与定价分化 立场： 支持（独立重估逻辑）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f10f9189a56c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "KRE", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-44cf9d91f6", "title": "中国大健康 Alpha 正从医保压价转向创新药出海、临床确定性与设备刚需", "titleEn": "China healthcare alpha is moving from reimbursement pressure to overseas licensing, clinical certainty, and equipment...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-44cf9d91f6/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 57, "supports": 1, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "中国创新药与高端医疗器械出海的临床与监管风险压力测试", "summary": "研究院权威工作日： 2026-05-21 分析师： 生物科技分析师 ( biotech-analyst ) 立场： 压力测试 (基于 既有研究记录的分析结论，对国内创新与“出海”逻辑进行严苛的监管与临床实证压力...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a5d16ce8c17/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "大健康产业链低覆盖筛选 - 工作日 2026-05-21", "summary": "截至研究院工作日 2026-05-21，我支持把中国大健康产业链纳入后续研究队列，但应定位为自下而上的精选线索，而不是简单的行业贝塔判断。最值得跟踪的机会集中在医保扩容、出海弹性、利用率修复...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b65ef96426cf/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "前序研究 —— 医药行业“合规驱动型”双轨制：BIOSECURE、监管壁垒与 CXO / 创新药的估值重估", "summary": "前序研究 —— 医药行业“合规驱动型”双轨制：BIOSECURE、监管壁垒与 CXO / 创新药的估值重估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1c3651dbc21f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "2359.HK", "600276.SH", "1801.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "6990.HK", "300760.SZ", "603259.SH", "1177.HK", "002821.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-21dd72c1b1", "title": "航空航天与国防供应链错配正在形成政策驱动的制造业弹性", "titleEn": "Aerospace and defense supply-chain mismatch is creating policy-driven manufacturing beta", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-21dd72c1b1/", "laneId": "lane_1514a60f727a", "lane": "国防航空航天供应链", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/defense-and-aerospace-supply-chain/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 55, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "出口管制与合规：Mynaric 进入 Neutron / SDA 供应链的次生风险层", "summary": "出口管制与合规：Mynaric 进入 Neutron / SDA 供应链的次生风险层 日期： 2026-05-21 分析师： 政策分析师（监管政策、出口管制、制裁、地缘政治） 立场： Stress-test（压力测试）——prior re...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b8a4ed86475b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "太空经济研究报告：太空制造能力与国防工业化进程", "summary": "太空经济研究报告：太空制造能力与国防工业化进程 分析师： 工业制造分析师 (高级制造与航空航天) 日期： 2026-05-21 研究记录索引： 02/08 主题： 太空制造产能扩张与国防供应链工业化评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8113a94e906a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "太空超级周期下的大类资产配置与风险管理框架：在 Rocket Lab 高贝塔稀缺溢价与供应链/监管现实间...", "summary": "太空超级周期下的大类资产配置与风险管理框架：在 Rocket Lab 高贝塔稀缺溢价与供应链/监管现实间寻求平衡", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-055ecb73d98f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "LMT", "RTX", "NOC", "RKLB", "BA", "CAT", "IRDM", "ASTS", "HWM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-51c6d833ae", "title": "食品加工的机会从食品通胀切换到原料波动、渠道库存与 B 端标准化", "titleEn": "Food processing opportunities are shifting from food inflation to input volatility, channel inventory, and B-side sta...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-51c6d833ae/", "laneId": "lane_13d7ced85300", "lane": "食品加工/成本传导", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-processing-and-input-cost-transmission/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 50, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "宏观研究报告：PPI–CPI 剪刀差与食品加工毛利率（2026 H2）", "summary": "宏观研究报告：PPI–CPI 剪刀差与食品加工毛利率（2026 H2） 日期： 2026-05-21 分析师： 中国宏观分析师 主题： 食品加工龙头的成本红利“第二段窗口”验证", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7cb4de0063e1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "食品加工板块 2026 H2 配置策略：核心防御 + 卫星进攻的哑铃式组合", "summary": "食品加工板块 2026 H2 配置策略：核心防御 + 卫星进攻的哑铃式组合", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eb7fecfa19a1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "食品加工产业链调研队列 — 2026-05-21", "summary": "截至研究院工作日 2026-05-21，我支持为中国食品加工产业链开启选择性深挖队列，因为内部研究简报显示，该产业链近 30 日仅激活 18/241 次，激活率为 7.5% [S0]。这不是一个无差别的必需消费买...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f3393950437e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "001215.SZ", "600298.SH", "300973.SZ", "603345.SH", "603027.SH", "002991.SZ", "603317.SH", "002847.SZ", "ADM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f62e29bf1c", "title": "在SpaceX将于6月12日进行股权交易且美债高企下，太空经济是否已告别散户概念炒作，转向由SpaceX价格伞、国防合同与垂直整合总装定…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在SpaceX将于6月12日进行股权交易且美债高企下，太空经济是否已告别散户概念炒作，转向由SpaceX价格伞、国防合同与垂直整合总装定…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f62e29bf1c/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "A股商业航天板块流动性危机与宏观资产荒的最终综合报告", "summary": "A股商业航天板块流动性危机与宏观资产荒的最终综合报告 研究日期： 2026-05-21 作者： 中国宏观分析师 (China Macro Analyst) 立场： Synthesize (综合)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f299b76d76bb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股商业航天板块资金面与持仓结构压力测试", "summary": "A股商业航天板块资金面与持仓结构压力测试 既有研究记录· A股策略师 · 立场: stress-test 工作日期: 2026-05-21 (Asia/Singapore) · 板块: A股商业航天 · 触发情景: SpaceX IPO 推...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8ea0ecef8864/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600118.SH", "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "300762.SZ", "LUNR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2a12467f9b", "title": "卫星电源壁垒需由发射节奏和单星价值量持续验证", "titleEn": "Satellite-power barriers require continued validation through launch cadence and content per spacecraft", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2a12467f9b/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "商业航天板块估值重塑与在轨算力CapEx瓶颈的策略影响", "summary": "报告日期：2026-05-21（Asia/Singapore，机构口径工作日） - 作者：首席策略师（chief-strategist） - 立场：stress-test（压力测试 既有研究记录的\"硅天花板\"结论对二级市场估值的传导...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aad3fe19d6ee/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股商业航天板块资金面与持仓结构压力测试", "summary": "A股商业航天板块资金面与持仓结构压力测试 既有研究记录· A股策略师 · 立场: stress-test 工作日期: 2026-05-21 (Asia/Singapore) · 板块: A股商业航天 · 触发情景: SpaceX IPO 推...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8ea0ecef8864/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "600118.SH", "IRDM", "RDW", "LUNR", "LMT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-23a6e00e51", "title": "BOJ 正常化超调不是基础概率最高的宏观意外，但它最符合“JPY 升值 + CNH 贬值 + SPX 跌破零 gamma”的三条件 FX…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: BOJ 正常化超调不是基础概率最高的宏观意外，但它最符合“JPY 升值 + CNH 贬值 + SPX 跌破零 gamma”的三条件 FX…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-23a6e00e51/", "laneId": "lane_b29e1d216a21", "lane": "信用再融资/私募信贷", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/credit-refinancing-and-private-debt/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试沃什美联储下的硬着陆论断：商业地产与区域银行为先行信号", "summary": "作者：首席经济学家 - 工作日期：2026-05-21（亚洲/新加坡） - 立场： stress-test （针对研究记录 03 关于 2026 下半年硬着陆概率 55% 的论断） - - 备注：写入时工作目录中缺少 research note...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e3814b4db4a7/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "1.0万亿美元债务供给与高收益率下独立发电厂与数据中心REITs的信用再融资脆弱性压力测试", "summary": "1.0万亿美元债务供给与高收益率下独立发电厂与数据中心REITs的信用再融资脆弱性压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8098c096ef09/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "KRE", "JPM", "KKR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5505b40cdb", "title": "通用减速机修复先于机器人精密传动兑现", "titleEn": "General reducer recovery precedes realization of the robotics option", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5505b40cdb/", "laneId": "lane_a724a01f8428", "lane": "具身智能/机器人零部件", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/embodied-ai-and-robotics-components/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "工业机械产业链——值得深挖的几个被低覆盖标的", "summary": "研究记录 · 作者： industrials-analyst · 日期： 2026-05-21（亚洲/新加坡） · 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-af45117109f1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "人形机器人 BOM——AI 硬件溢价究竟落在哪一段", "summary": "研究记录 · 作者： tmt-analyst · 日期： 2026-05-21（亚洲/新加坡） · 立场： support（选择性支持）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2458d41a5483/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002472.SZ", "002747.SZ", "300124.SZ", "TSLA", "688017.SH", "603915.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-241377c8be", "title": "显示材料改善需由利润率与现金流共同确认", "titleEn": "Display-material recovery requires joint margin and cash-flow confirmation", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-241377c8be/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 59, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI硬件配置（14%）在UST 5.25%压力下的资本开支与利润率韧性评估", "summary": "AI硬件配置（14%）在UST 5.25%压力下的资本开支与利润率韧性评估 日期： 2026-05-21 分析师： tmt-analyst (TMT行业分析师) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5a0d6936b00b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "财务压力测试：Trainium 3/4 供应链转型对 AWS 2000亿美元资本开支的利润率及 ROI 损耗评估", "summary": "财务压力测试：Trainium 3/4 供应链转型对 AWS 2000亿美元资本开支的利润率及 ROI 损耗评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1fbf7c2a4841/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "ASML", "000660.KS", "MU", "002916.SZ", "600552.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bef6966fdd", "title": "工业机械的出口订单质量和设备更新周期决定制造业 CapEx 弹性", "titleEn": "Industrial machinery beta depends on export-order quality and equipment-upgrade capex", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bef6966fdd/", "laneId": "lane_6e2dcaab093e", "lane": "工业机械/设备更新出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/industrial-machinery-equipment-upgrade-and-exports/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 59, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "工业机械产业链——值得深挖的几个被低覆盖标的", "summary": "研究记录 · 作者： industrials-analyst · 日期： 2026-05-21（亚洲/新加坡） · 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-af45117109f1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "ERP下行与早周期资金主线下，工业制造内部细分领域的盈利弹性与配置优先级", "summary": "既有研究记录: ERP下行与早周期资金主线下，工业制造内部细分领域的盈利弹性与配置优先级", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-760421627452/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600031.SH", "600761.SH", "002747.SZ", "000425.SZ", "603338.SH", "603298.SH", "000157.SZ", "601100.SH", "300124.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-6f42e0fe6e", "title": "稀土、铜铝与关键材料正在成为 AI 与新能源共用的供给约束", "titleEn": "Rare earths, copper, aluminum, and key materials are becoming shared supply constraints for AI and energy transition", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6f42e0fe6e/", "laneId": "lane_8c4a3526fcca", "lane": "关键材料/稀土铜铝", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/critical-materials-rare-earths-copper-and-aluminum/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 58, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-05-21 策略综合：A股杠铃右腿中铜、铝配置权重再评估", "summary": "截至研究院工作日 2026-05-21 （Asia/Singapore）[自测算：系统日期锚 返回 2026-05-21 ]，我对前序研究采取 synthesize：Warsh 鹰派压力情景仍要求保留右腿杠铃，但中国地产已从需求...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4de30949aa4a/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "政策分析师报告：地缘政治摩擦与出口管制压力测试——评估Amazon Vulcan全球供应链扩张的技术壁垒...", "summary": "政策分析师报告：地缘政治摩擦与出口管制压力测试——评估Amazon Vulcan全球供应链扩张的技术壁垒与卡脖子风险 (2026-05-21)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b1750fefeba0/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "FCX", "GEV", "000831.SZ", "SCCO", "ETN", "MP", "TECK", "600111.SH", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9d3836cc07", "title": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "titleEn": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d3836cc07/", "laneId": "lane_008e3bd9306a", "lane": "AI 软件效率/生产率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-software-productivity/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 58, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "首席经济学家：宏观综合 —— 从 Vulcan 到全球经济：AI 资本开支、韧性溢价与\"再通胀—生产率\"拉...", "summary": "首席经济学家：宏观综合 —— 从 Vulcan 到全球经济：AI 资本开支、韧性溢价与\"再通胀—生产率\"拉锯", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-059f13501372/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "TMT 行业分析师报告：AI 算力链 Beta 敞口与流量同步性验证 (2026年5月)", "summary": "TMT 行业分析师报告：AI 算力链 Beta 敞口与流量同步性验证 (2026年5月)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-16e0197c305e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "NVDA", "NOW", "CRM", "ADBE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-985b80b224", "title": "具身智能机器人进入 BOM 降本与执行器供给验证期", "titleEn": "Embodied AI robotics enters the BOM deflation and actuator supply verification phase", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-985b80b224/", "laneId": "lane_a724a01f8428", "lane": "具身智能/机器人零部件", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/embodied-ai-and-robotics-components/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 55, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "人形机器人 BOM——AI 硬件溢价究竟落在哪一段", "summary": "研究记录 · 作者： tmt-analyst · 日期： 2026-05-21（亚洲/新加坡） · 立场： support（选择性支持）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2458d41a5483/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "工业机械产业链——值得深挖的几个被低覆盖标的", "summary": "研究记录 · 作者： industrials-analyst · 日期： 2026-05-21（亚洲/新加坡） · 立场： initial", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-af45117109f1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002472.SZ", "688017.SH", "TSLA", "002747.SZ", "300124.SZ", "NVDA", "603662.SH", "002050.SZ", "ABBNY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-fd31cc177b", "title": "债券供给、地方债与久期需求决定利率下行空间", "titleEn": "Bond supply, local-government debt, and duration demand define room for rates to fall", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fd31cc177b/", "laneId": "lane_6fbf93c613f9", "lane": "债券供给/银行久期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/bond-supply-and-bank-duration/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 54, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "国有大行\"类债化\"属性对境内利率曲线及信用利差传导的影响", "summary": "工作日期：2026-05-21（Asia/Singapore） - 研究记录 - 分析师：债券分析师（bond-analyst） - 立场：stress-test（压力测试 research note \"类债化压缩信用利差并重塑期限溢价\"假说） - 上游链...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3120ab482fd2/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026H2供给放量下的债券定价压力测试：中小银行专项债与PSL重启对利率债曲线与信用利差的冲击预测", "summary": "2026H2供给放量下的债券定价压力测试：中小银行专项债与PSL重启对利率债曲线与信用利差的冲击预测", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-946c9b146852/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601398.SH", "601939.SH", "601288.SH", "3988.HK", "600900.SH", "TLT", "IEF", "000001.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2ec6b9d3ee", "title": "卫星直连与商业航天从概念弹性进入部署兑现期", "titleEn": "Direct-to-device satellite and commercial space are moving from concept beta to deployment proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2ec6b9d3ee/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 46, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "卫星应用层的商业化变现与AI在轨算力的协同效应", "summary": "卫星应用层的商业化变现与AI在轨算力的协同效应 2026年5月21日 专题研究员", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-65594925312f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "Neutron 首飞与太空军订单：RKLB 的基本面兑现风险与催化剂", "summary": "Neutron 首飞与太空军订单：RKLB 的基本面兑现风险与催化剂 日期： 2026-05-21 分析师： 工业制造分析师（先进制造 / 国防 / 航天） 立场： 综合 (Synthesize) — 在 既有研究记录提出...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-48bac71e4476/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "IRDM", "LUNR", "LMT", "600118.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-aa97a5c1b3", "title": "家装链的胜负手在存量房翻新、国补触达与地产后周期库存去化", "titleEn": "Home improvement depends on existing-home renovation, subsidy reach, and post-property inventory digestion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-aa97a5c1b3/", "laneId": "lane_1efa26c729b6", "lane": "家装/地产后周期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/home-improvement-and-post-property-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "地产后周期修复：家装产业链中被低估的“隐形明珠”", "summary": "作者：房地产分析师 (realestate-analyst) 权威工作日：2026-05-21（新加坡/北京时间） 当前课题：新华财经-家装产业链调研 近期活跃度：近30日激活率仅 9/198 (4.5%) —— 处于严重研究空白期...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-36d31a9f084a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股策略师报告：地产后周期资金流向分化与独立定价重估", "summary": "日期： 2026-05-21 主题： 家居、建材、装饰板块的资金流向与定价分化 立场： 支持（独立重估逻辑）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f10f9189a56c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002572.SZ", "603833.SH", "603816.SH", "600690.SH", "LOW", "000333.SZ", "002043.SZ", "603801.SH", "002508.SZ", "001322.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bb46b0c3de", "title": "USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bb46b0c3de/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球 r 路径分化驱动的利差交易与 USD/JPY、USD/CNY 波动性", "summary": "全球 r 路径分化驱动的利差交易与 USD/JPY、USD/CNY 波动性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2dba2c27606e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4b64fc19f4", "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b64fc19f4/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球 r 路径分化驱动的利差交易与 USD/JPY、USD/CNY 波动性", "summary": "全球 r 路径分化驱动的利差交易与 USD/JPY、USD/CNY 波动性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2dba2c27606e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e4e956cd41", "title": "通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e4e956cd41/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球 r 路径分化驱动的利差交易与 USD/JPY、USD/CNY 波动性", "summary": "全球 r 路径分化驱动的利差交易与 USD/JPY、USD/CNY 波动性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2dba2c27606e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-86be10e7fb", "title": "为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-86be10e7fb/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "既有研究记录 — USD/CNY 尾部风险的跨资产对冲与人民币现金配置", "summary": "既有研究记录 — USD/CNY 尾部风险的跨资产对冲与人民币现金配置", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4cfc71d652de/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CVX", "XOM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f0b8d44918", "title": "美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f0b8d44918/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "既有研究记录 — USD/CNY 尾部风险的跨资产对冲与人民币现金配置", "summary": "既有研究记录 — USD/CNY 尾部风险的跨资产对冲与人民币现金配置", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4cfc71d652de/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a13f19ec2d", "title": "红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 红利资产已从极端拥挤降温为高位防御底仓，成长端也已杠杆拥挤，因此当前应维持杠铃而非单边切换。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a13f19ec2d/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "国有大行NIM承压与不良隐忧下的A股银行板块红利策略重估", "summary": "日期： 2026-05-21 分析师： A股策略师 (ashare-strategist) 核心观点： 国有大行正在经历“政策债化”（Policy Bond-ization）的逻辑重构。虽然地方收储将挤压NIM并带来远期信用风险，但8000亿...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bbc1d09571e8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601398.SH", "688981.SH", "510880.SH", "600941.SH", "601088.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-eefbf1a467", "title": "中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差-286bp下人民币对三季度降息空间的约束", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-eefbf1a467/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "既有研究记录 — USD/CNY 尾部风险的跨资产对冲与人民币现金配置", "summary": "既有研究记录 — USD/CNY 尾部风险的跨资产对冲与人民币现金配置", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4cfc71d652de/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b3e89f22e6", "title": "在极端关税与30%原料通胀的压力下，全球电网设备（利用率98%、美交期128周）的硬约束赋予A股厂商极强的定价权与贸易规避弹性，其出口高…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在极端关税与30%原料通胀的压力下，全球电网设备（利用率98%、美交期128周）的硬约束赋予A股厂商极强的定价权与贸易规避弹性，其出口高…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b3e89f22e6/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "WLEF重构下的A股行业轮动：绿色基荷、电网设备与农化板块的资金面与落地选股策略", "summary": "WLEF重构下的A股行业轮动：绿色基荷、电网设备与农化板块的资金面与落地选股策略 作者： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) 基准工作日期： 2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e31d25dcdfbb/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "GEV", "688676.SH", "ETN", "000400.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e40b25962e", "title": "A股“大行+红利/稀缺成长”哑铃配置在低杠杆与高可视度Backlog支撑下并未拥挤，而弱区域中小银行因资产质量二阶传导滞后与重度稀释风险…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: A股“大行+红利/稀缺成长”哑铃配置在低杠杆与高可视度Backlog支撑下并未拥挤，而弱区域中小银行因资产质量二阶传导滞后与重度稀释风险…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e40b25962e/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "国有大行NIM承压与不良隐忧下的A股银行板块红利策略重估", "summary": "日期： 2026-05-21 分析师： A股策略师 (ashare-strategist) 核心观点： 国有大行正在经历“政策债化”（Policy Bond-ization）的逻辑重构。虽然地方收储将挤压NIM并带来远期信用风险，但8000亿...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bbc1d09571e8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601398.SH", "601088.SH", "600941.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7930de9cdc", "title": "沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7930de9cdc/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "既有研究记录 — USD/CNY 尾部风险的跨资产对冲与人民币现金配置", "summary": "既有研究记录 — USD/CNY 尾部风险的跨资产对冲与人民币现金配置", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4cfc71d652de/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-859ab241bf", "title": "依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-859ab241bf/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI算力与半导体设备板块的盈利可见性压力测试", "summary": "日期：2026-05-21（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师：TMT行业分析师（tmt-analyst） - 立场：stress-test → 有条件支持 前序研究\"不全面切向价值\"的结论 - 议题：在半导体设备受外部压力的背景下，AI算...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-df2efbe45822/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "ASML", "688012.SH", "000660.KS", "MU", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-97f10202a2", "title": "中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-97f10202a2/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "既有研究记录 — USD/CNY 尾部风险的跨资产对冲与人民币现金配置", "summary": "既有研究记录 — USD/CNY 尾部风险的跨资产对冲与人民币现金配置", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4cfc71d652de/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4ad776c10c", "title": "地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4ad776c10c/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "高实际中性利率（R-star）与工业电力通胀双重约束下的全球大类资产战略配置与组合构建", "summary": "高实际中性利率（R-star）与工业电力通胀双重约束下的全球大类资产战略配置与组合构建", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6f09fc7a9df5/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-27c1e713e6", "title": "日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-27c1e713e6/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "全球 r 路径分化驱动的利差交易与 USD/JPY、USD/CNY 波动性", "summary": "全球 r 路径分化驱动的利差交易与 USD/JPY、USD/CNY 波动性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2dba2c27606e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2aa156c4c9", "title": "2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026-07-06的核心判断是：防御组合必须从红利和长债的收益率防御，转向红利、长债、人民币黄金三者更均衡且黄金显著加权的汇率防御。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2aa156c4c9/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "既有研究记录 — USD/CNY 尾部风险的跨资产对冲与人民币现金配置", "summary": "既有研究记录 — USD/CNY 尾部风险的跨资产对冲与人民币现金配置", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4cfc71d652de/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-54a65a88ba", "title": "请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-54a65a88ba/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试 CNY 7.45–7.50 关口在 USD/CNH 基差走阔至 -75bps 情境下的破位...", "summary": "既有研究记录— 压力测试 CNY 7.45–7.50 关口在 USD/CNH 基差走阔至 -75bps 情境下的破位概率与 PBOC 干预反应函数", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-58a8b66c512a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "UUP", "FXI", "2800.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-11523cabbd", "title": "熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 熊陡通过创纪录的负利差与套息渠道在结构上利空人民币，但其即期传导当前被经常账户顺差、地缘避险与央行逆周期管理三重对冲，使贬值压力潜伏待发…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-11523cabbd/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "既有研究记录 — USD/CNY 尾部风险的跨资产对冲与人民币现金配置", "summary": "既有研究记录 — USD/CNY 尾部风险的跨资产对冲与人民币现金配置", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4cfc71d652de/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-6fd1b8808d", "title": "资金成本上行与长端利率有锚下的A股风格轮动和金融板块配置", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 资金成本上行与长端利率有锚下的A股风格轮动和金融板块配置", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6fd1b8808d/", "laneId": "lane_bf77fb66551a", "lane": "A股红利/硬科技杠铃", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-dividend-and-hard-tech-barbell/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "国有大行NIM承压与不良隐忧下的A股银行板块红利策略重估", "summary": "日期： 2026-05-21 分析师： A股策略师 (ashare-strategist) 核心观点： 国有大行正在经历“政策债化”（Policy Bond-ization）的逻辑重构。虽然地方收储将挤压NIM并带来远期信用风险，但8000亿...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bbc1d09571e8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "601088.SH", "601398.SH", "600941.SH", "510880.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-979591277f", "title": "能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-979591277f/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "既有研究记录 — USD/CNY 尾部风险的跨资产对冲与人民币现金配置", "summary": "既有研究记录 — USD/CNY 尾部风险的跨资产对冲与人民币现金配置", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4cfc71d652de/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f9ce8d294d", "title": "人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币汇率 6.70–6.88 区间稳定性分析", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f9ce8d294d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "既有研究记录 — USD/CNY 尾部风险的跨资产对冲与人民币现金配置", "summary": "既有研究记录 — USD/CNY 尾部风险的跨资产对冲与人民币现金配置", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4cfc71d652de/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-250964b5dc", "title": "强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-250964b5dc/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试 CNY 7.45–7.50 关口在 USD/CNH 基差走阔至 -75bps 情境下的破位...", "summary": "既有研究记录— 压力测试 CNY 7.45–7.50 关口在 USD/CNH 基差走阔至 -75bps 情境下的破位概率与 PBOC 干预反应函数", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-58a8b66c512a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-87af28db3e", "title": "宇航电源份额与卫星交付驱动电科蓝天兑现", "titleEn": "Space-Power Share and Satellite Deliveries Drive CETC Solar Energy Monetization", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-87af28db3e/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 74, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "CXO 估值重估：工业迁移成本与长期利润率侵蚀压力测试", "summary": "日期： 2026-05-21 (Asia/Singapore) 研究记录索引： 06/08 分析师： Biotech Analyst (生物科技分析师) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6d1be4bbb541/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "LUNR", "IRDM", "LMT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d0faeae7f0", "title": "NAND价格与产品组合驱动SanDisk盈利弹性", "titleEn": "NAND pricing and mix drive SanDisk earnings leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d0faeae7f0/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 72, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI硬件配置（14%）在UST 5.25%压力下的资本开支与利润率韧性评估", "summary": "AI硬件配置（14%）在UST 5.25%压力下的资本开支与利润率韧性评估 日期： 2026-05-21 分析师： tmt-analyst (TMT行业分析师) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5a0d6936b00b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS", "META", "AMD" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ab1fb6a453", "title": "DeepSeek 式低价模型正在重塑 AI 定价权与软件利润池", "titleEn": "DeepSeek-style low-cost models are reshaping AI pricing power and software profit pools", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ab1fb6a453/", "laneId": "lane_13710af7e06d", "lane": "低价模型/AI 软件利润池", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/low-cost-models-and-ai-software-profit-pools/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 72, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-05-21 策略综合：AI 入口先重估 CAC 时的 12 个月跨行业配置", "summary": "2026-05-21 策略综合：AI 入口先重估 CAC 时的 12 个月跨行业配置", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-34410e1ba632/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "BABA", "MSFT", "BIDU", "9988.HK", "CRM", "0700.HK", "NVDA", "NOW", "9888.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b13c7cf092", "title": "高纯石英材料受益于先进封装扩产，但兑现取决于认证与产品结构", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz can benefit from advanced-packaging expansion, conditional on qualification and mix", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13c7cf092/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI算力与半导体设备板块的盈利可见性压力测试", "summary": "日期：2026-05-21（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师：TMT行业分析师（tmt-analyst） - 立场：stress-test → 有条件支持 前序研究\"不全面切向价值\"的结论 - 议题：在半导体设备受外部压力的背景下，AI算...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-df2efbe45822/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "MU", "000660.KS", "ASML", "688012.SH", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b976d8330e", "title": "NAND盈利弹性由价格与产品结构主导，而非单纯出货增长", "titleEn": "NAND earnings leverage is driven by pricing and mix rather than shipment growth alone", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b976d8330e/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI硬件配置（14%）在UST 5.25%压力下的资本开支与利润率韧性评估", "summary": "AI硬件配置（14%）在UST 5.25%压力下的资本开支与利润率韧性评估 日期： 2026-05-21 分析师： tmt-analyst (TMT行业分析师) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5a0d6936b00b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "META", "MU", "000660.KS", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ffa474a3f2", "title": "端侧 AI 与 Agent 桌面正在把算力竞争从云端扩展到芯片、OS 与消费电子供应链", "titleEn": "Edge AI and agent desktops are extending compute competition from cloud to chips, OS, and consumer-electronics supply...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ffa474a3f2/", "laneId": "lane_74d352e86208", "lane": "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/edge-ai-and-agent-desktop-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-05-21 — AI算力硬件与云基础设施：能效是第一座“电厂”", "summary": "2026-05-21 — AI算力硬件与云基础设施：能效是第一座“电厂”", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-645dd078834d/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "MSFT", "NVDA", "META", "AAPL", "AMZN", "AMD", "ARM", "QCOM", "GOOGL", "002475.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d614778e40", "title": "CAR-T商业化取决于进院、支付与订单转化", "titleEn": "CAR-T commercialization depends on hospital access, reimbursement, and order conversion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d614778e40/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究——双轨制综合：A 股公用事业、绿电铝与医药的合规期权定价", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-05-21（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师： 首席策略师（ chief-strategist ） 立场： 综合（Synthesize） 研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] Session ID: c38f1c2b-16d1-49...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-371c7771f009/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "1801.HK", "600276.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "603259.SH", "1177.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0", "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层", "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "NVIDIA第一季度财报超预期与AI基础设施资本开支展望：黑曜石平台（Blackwell）主导地位与CoWoS产能...", "summary": "NVIDIA第一季度财报超预期与AI基础设施资本开支展望：黑曜石平台（Blackwell）主导地位与CoWoS产能博弈", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a9b20fe18842/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "TSM", "AVGO", "AAPL", "TSLA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9d1baaec59", "title": "CAR-T商业化取决于进院、支付覆盖与患者转化", "titleEn": "CAR-T commercialization depends on hospital access, reimbursement and patient conversion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d1baaec59/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究——双轨制综合：A 股公用事业、绿电铝与医药的合规期权定价", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-05-21（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师： 首席策略师（ chief-strategist ） 立场： 综合（Synthesize） 研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] Session ID: c38f1c2b-16d1-49...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-371c7771f009/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "1801.HK", "600276.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "603259.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-40b8638803", "title": "全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-40b8638803/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI算力与半导体设备板块的盈利可见性压力测试", "summary": "日期：2026-05-21（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师：TMT行业分析师（tmt-analyst） - 立场：stress-test → 有条件支持 前序研究\"不全面切向价值\"的结论 - 议题：在半导体设备受外部压力的背景下，AI算...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-df2efbe45822/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "000660.KS", "MU", "688012.SH", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3f6ee4feb9", "title": "核电容量机制可改善现金流，但资本开支约束仍在", "titleEn": "Nuclear capacity mechanisms may improve cash flow, but capex remains binding", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3f6ee4feb9/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI数据中心负荷下中国电力供给结构与PPA经济性：火电/核电/绿电基荷如何承接2026–2028东部高密度...", "summary": "AI数据中心负荷下中国电力供给结构与PPA经济性：火电/核电/绿电基荷如何承接2026–2028东部高密度算力的新增负荷？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4213746f7295/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "CEG", "AEP", "600025.SH", "DUK", "1816.HK", "NEE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-31f32af77b", "title": "中国云与国产算力栈的关键不是模型热度，而是训练/推理订单、服务器交付和生态锁定", "titleEn": "China cloud and local compute stacks depend less on model hype than training/inference orders, server delivery, and e...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-31f32af77b/", "laneId": "lane_2997650d0638", "lane": "中国云/国产算力栈", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-cloud-and-local-compute-stack/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "A股AI硬件产业链的拥挤度与重定价风险（压力测试）", "summary": "分析师角色：TMT行业分析师（tmt-analyst） - 立场：stress-test（对既有研究记录\"巨型AI IPO是质量筛选器、不是抽水器\"的结论做应力测试） - 工作日期：2026-05-21（Asia/Singapore）...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a4366cd6bb74/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "300308.SZ", "601138.SH", "0981.HK", "688981.SH", "000977.SZ", "9988.HK", "NVDA", "0700.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d1f5e35b43", "title": "2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d1f5e35b43/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "NVIDIA第一季度财报超预期与AI基础设施资本开支展望：黑曜石平台（Blackwell）主导地位与CoWoS产能...", "summary": "NVIDIA第一季度财报超预期与AI基础设施资本开支展望：黑曜石平台（Blackwell）主导地位与CoWoS产能博弈", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a9b20fe18842/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8bbbcdf5a4", "title": "GPU、HBM 与先进封装决定 AI 资本开支供给节奏", "titleEn": "GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging shape the AI capex supply cycle", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8bbbcdf5a4/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "TMT 行业分析师报告：AI 算力链 Beta 敞口与流量同步性验证 (2026年5月)", "summary": "TMT 行业分析师报告：AI 算力链 Beta 敞口与流量同步性验证 (2026年5月)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-16e0197c305e/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "META", "AMD", "AVGO", "MU", "MSFT", "000660.KS", "GOOGL", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4f2d0121d3", "title": "高利润率出口材料企业需等待利润修复确认", "titleEn": "High-margin export materials require confirmation of profit recovery", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f2d0121d3/", "laneId": "lane_7e439482cbef", "lane": "中国出口制造/利润率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-export-manufacturing-and-margins/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "既有研究记录· 进口品库存回吐对品牌消费品及零售利润率的影响", "summary": "既有研究记录· 进口品库存回吐对品牌消费品及零售利润率的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cfa459486fb9/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600690.SH", "000333.SZ", "600900.SH", "002139.SZ", "2313.HK", "605183.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-025e4c0d2d", "title": "复合材料业务修复向利润增长传导", "titleEn": "Composite-Materials Recovery Transmits into Earnings Growth", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-025e4c0d2d/", "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80", "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI电力墙、全球制造业竞争力重构与中性利率（R-star）的结构性上行", "summary": "全球宏观研究简报 分析日期： 2026-05-21 分析师： global-macro (全球宏观分析师) 研究来源：已归档 (既有研究记录)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-201dc26a0790/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300274.SZ", "002028.SZ", "300750.SZ", "002080.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8b8ede3135", "title": "消费降级、健康刚需与银发经济正在重塑防御型增长", "titleEn": "Consumer downgrade, healthcare necessities, and the silver economy are reshaping defensive growth", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8b8ede3135/", "laneId": "lane_8cf8740aac77", "lane": "消费降级/健康银发", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/consumer-downgrade-health-and-silver-economy/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "大健康产业链低覆盖筛选 - 工作日 2026-05-21", "summary": "截至研究院工作日 2026-05-21，我支持把中国大健康产业链纳入后续研究队列，但应定位为自下而上的精选线索，而不是简单的行业贝塔判断。最值得跟踪的机会集中在医保扩容、出海弹性、利用率修复...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b65ef96426cf/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600519.SH", "3690.HK", "001215.SZ", "600276.SH", "300760.SZ", "1801.HK", "1177.HK", "2319.HK", "UNH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f5d7a79c82", "title": "HBM4、CoWoS 与背面供电正在成为 AI 服务器需求曲线的串行闸门", "titleEn": "HBM4, CoWoS, and backside power are becoming serial gates for the AI-server demand curve", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5d7a79c82/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "NVIDIA第一季度财报超预期与AI基础设施资本开支展望：黑曜石平台（Blackwell）主导地位与CoWoS产能...", "summary": "NVIDIA第一季度财报超预期与AI基础设施资本开支展望：黑曜石平台（Blackwell）主导地位与CoWoS产能博弈", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a9b20fe18842/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "000660.KS", "MU", "AMD", "META", "AVGO", "MSFT", "AMZN", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3da7ae5953", "title": "宇航电源份额将卫星部署节奏转化为收入弹性", "titleEn": "Space-power share converts satellite deployment into revenue leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3da7ae5953/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "太空经济研究报告：太空制造能力与国防工业化进程", "summary": "太空经济研究报告：太空制造能力与国防工业化进程 分析师： 工业制造分析师 (高级制造与航空航天) 日期： 2026-05-21 研究记录索引： 02/08 主题： 太空制造产能扩张与国防供应链工业化评估", "href": 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"数据中心地产、液冷与水资源正在决定 AI 容量的区域迁移", "titleEn": "Data-center real estate, liquid cooling, and water resources are deciding regional migration of AI capacity", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7f0a75c5f6/", "laneId": "lane_0679894fe06b", "lane": "数据中心地产/液冷", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/data-center-real-estate-and-cooling/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "变压器及GOES缺口对AI服务器集成商2026年毛利及交付节奏的影响研究——基于机架架构与采购模式的压...", "summary": "变压器及GOES缺口对AI服务器集成商2026年毛利及交付节奏的影响研究——基于机架架构与采购模式的压力测试 报告日期： 2026-05-21 (亚太/新加坡) 作者： TMT行业分析师 (TMT Analyst) 本报告立场...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d8265dbd1ffb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "VRT", "ETN", "META", "NVDA", "GEV", "MSFT", "DLR", "EQIX", "SMR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ce29facfbd", "title": "中国资产定价仍受政策、流动性与风险偏好共同驱动", "titleEn": "China asset pricing remains driven by policy, liquidity, and risk appetite", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ce29facfbd/", "laneId": "lane_a8d9c69ae883", "lane": "中国权益流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-equity-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 52, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "流动性虹吸效应：巨型IPO对国内货币环境及AI风险偏好的实证测算", "summary": "研究记录 - 工作日：2026-05-21（Asia/Singapore） - 分析师：china-macro（中国宏观分析师） - 立场：support（支持上游\"再定价压力真实存在\"的判断，但把传导渠道从\"估值锚\"延伸到\"货币与跨境...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a9e8f24d47cb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "0700.HK", "9988.HK", "510300.SH", "159915.SZ", "300750.SZ", "3988.HK", "588000.SH", "LOW" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c6c6be4745", "title": "中国出口制造的胜负手从低价扩张转向利润率、合规和本地化", "titleEn": "Chinese export manufacturing is shifting from low-price expansion to margin, compliance, and localization", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c6c6be4745/", "laneId": "lane_7e439482cbef", "lane": "中国出口制造/利润率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-export-manufacturing-and-margins/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "既有研究记录· 进口品库存回吐对品牌消费品及零售利润率的影响", "summary": "既有研究记录· 进口品库存回吐对品牌消费品及零售利润率的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-cfa459486fb9/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "000333.SZ", "600690.SH", "300750.SZ", "002594.SZ", "600900.SH", "2313.HK", "002139.SZ", "002475.SZ", "2020.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-1aaa752ed4", "title": "AI 电力与电网瓶颈仍是基础设施主线", "titleEn": "AI power and grid bottlenecks remain the infrastructure core", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-1aaa752ed4/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 45, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电力与电网压力测试：液冷大规模落地正把AI数据中心推向哪些刚性物理上限？", "summary": "电力与电网压力测试：液冷大规模落地正把AI数据中心推向哪些刚性物理上限？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7b437c4bed4c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "META", "600089.SH", "MSFT", "601179.SH", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d6b2c23ed6", "title": "航运与物流成本是油价、关税和供应链再通胀的二阶传导器", "titleEn": "Shipping and logistics costs are a second-order transmission channel for oil, tariffs, and supply-chain reflation", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d6b2c23ed6/", "laneId": "lane_79a55cd8530e", "lane": "航运物流/再通胀传导", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/shipping-logistics-and-reflation-transmission/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "评估中国经济增长走弱对 USD/CNY 突破 7.30 的基本面支撑 — 2026-05-21", "summary": "评估中国经济增长走弱对 USD/CNY 突破 7.30 的基本面支撑 — 2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3c6d195d86b3/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601919.SH", "1919.HK", "ZIM", "MATX", "600026.SH", "600018.SH", "BOAT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4074d8a3d2", "title": "碳价、可再生能源与储能 CapEx 正在重塑电力资产回报", "titleEn": "Carbon pricing, renewables, and storage capex are reshaping power-asset returns", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4074d8a3d2/", "laneId": "lane_e69b58816f80", "lane": "能源转型/储能光伏", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/energy-transition-storage-and-solar-capex/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 42, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI数据中心负荷下中国电力供给结构与PPA经济性：火电/核电/绿电基荷如何承接2026–2028东部高密度...", "summary": "AI数据中心负荷下中国电力供给结构与PPA经济性：火电/核电/绿电基荷如何承接2026–2028东部高密度算力的新增负荷？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4213746f7295/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SMR", "002028.SZ", "GEV", "300750.SZ", "600900.SH", "MSFT", "CEG", "300274.SZ", "META", "VST" ] } ], "lanes": [ { "id": 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