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2026-05-18 分析师： 中国宏观分析师 ( china-macro ) 立场： 压力测试 (对短期内回升至 80% 临...", "tags": [ "通胀", "宏观", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-d949639614ab", "title": "电力设备价格联动机制与监管政策：铜铝冲击究竟有多少传导到利润？", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d949639614ab/", "analyst": "政策分析师", "analystId": "policy-analyst", "category": "ESG与主题", "excerpt": "分析师：政策分析师（ policy-analyst ） - 立场：压力测试（针对研究记录 05） - 工作日期：2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） - 研究记录 - 主题：电力设备价格联动机制与监管政策对利润传导的影响 -...", "tags": [ "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-93488bb4c9d5", "title": "05 风险观察：开盘前风控清单", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-93488bb4c9d5/", "analyst": "晨会主编", "analystId": "morning-brief-editor", "category": "综合编审", "excerpt": "日期锚定：2026-05-18 [来源：系统日期锚 2026-05-18] 角色口径：Chief Risk Officer / 首席风控官。本文只使用已落盘草稿与其转引来源；无法核验的数字显式标为 [来源不明] 或 [日期...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-f6782df0e7af", "title": "AI Capex 疲劳还是 Time-to-Power 折价：估值分层的新范式", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f6782df0e7af/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "AI Capex 疲劳还是 Time-to-Power 折价：估值分层的新范式 日期： 2026-05-18 角色： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) 主题： 针对 2026-05-19 科技股潜在低开的应对策略", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-70a06c01d081", "title": "公用事业产业链低覆盖研究队列 - 2026-05-18", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-70a06c01d081/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日 2026-05-18 （Asia/Singapore），我支持启动公用事业研究队列：过去 30 日该产业链仅激活 24/205（11.7%），但近期公开数据已经显示需求韧性更强，同时若干低覆盖标的出现现金...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-dec96ed36805", "title": "双重定价机制对创新药DCF估值的影响 — 科伦博泰(6990.HK)与康诺亚(2162.HK)", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-dec96ed36805/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "双重定价机制对创新药DCF估值的影响 — 科伦博泰(6990.HK)与康诺亚(2162.HK) 日期： 2026-05-18 分析师： 医药行业分析师 对既有研究记录的立场： 支持(SUPPORT)——BD驱动的阿尔法逻辑...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-1a5528163af9", "title": "熊陡压力下区域能源平台的利润空间 - 2026-05-18", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1a5528163af9/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日 2026-05-18 （Asia/Singapore），本报告对前序“区域能源平台相对大市值类债电力股仍具风险收益比优势”的结论做 stress-test。我的结论是： 有条件支持，但优势边际收窄。AI/...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-fceac029ac02", "title": "研究报告：2026-05-18", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fceac029ac02/", "analyst": "公用事业分析师", "analystId": "utilities-analyst", "category": "行业研究", "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日 2026-05-18，我对前序 time-to-power 主线做综合，并把剩余错定价篮子收窄到 2026-2027 年最可能转化为可观察订单、调度收入或售电量的具名 AIDC 电力项目。结论是选择性支持...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-2a72119efb89", "title": "9926.HK 风险评估", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2a72119efb89/", "analyst": "深研主编", "analystId": "research-editor", "category": "综合编审", "excerpt": "评估日期：2026-05-18。本文唯一研究对象为 9926.HK。文中出现的 SUMMIT、JumpCan Pharmaceutical 等仅作为 9926.HK 的合作方、交易对手方或风险传导主体，不作为独立研究对象分析。", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-e500953b346c", "title": "A 股商业航天估值的外汇压力测试", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e500953b346c/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "机构工作日期： 2026-05-18（Asia/Singapore） 研究记录 · 分析师： FX Strategist（外汇策略师）· 立场： stress-test 研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted]", "tags": [ "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-4fe21a2af7ea", "title": "AI 算力扩张受限于电力交付周期的风险评估：“暗硅”现实", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4fe21a2af7ea/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "AI 算力扩张受限于电力交付周期的风险评估：“暗硅”现实 日期： 2026-05-18 角色： TMT 行业分析师 (TMT Analyst) 立场： 压力测试（STRESS-TEST）——电力稀缺是真实的（既有研究记录...", "tags": [ "AI", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-bd1c015ef0c3", "title": "A股与中国行业层面的滞胀配置执行图谱 - 2026-05-18", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd1c015ef0c3/", "analyst": "首席策略师", "analystId": "chief-strategist", "category": "权益策略", "excerpt": "截至机构工作日 2026-05-18（Asia/Singapore），本报告片综合了研究记录05的大类资产配置约束（30%权益、34%固定收益、24%商品、8%黄金、4%现金），并将其转化为A股及中国相关资产的本地化执行...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-afbf31703677", "title": "研究报告：Fed 反应函数与利率策略的宏观一致性", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-afbf31703677/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究报告：Fed 反应函数与利率策略的宏观一致性 日期： 2026-05-18 分析师： chief-economist (首席经济学家) 主题： Fed 反应函数、通胀路径与 5-7Y 久期 / 30Y 空头组合的宏观一致性", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-8f35825df5af", "title": "2026-05-18 TMT压力测试：电力瓶颈与下一代AI硬件迭代逻辑", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8f35825df5af/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日 2026-05-18 （Asia/Singapore），本报告 支持前序电力瓶颈主线，但压力测试更强版本的结论：AI芯片厂商和云服务商并不会简单停止追求峰值性能。更稳健的判断是：2027-2028年气...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-19122d354082", "title": "估值分析", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-19122d354082/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "已读取工作区内全部前序 Markdown 文件： 01 公司概况.md 、 02 财务数据.md 、 03 行业定位.md 、 04 催化剂.md 、 05 三表模型.md 、 06 盈利预测.md。[自测算；本地文件读取]", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "archive" }, { "id": "archive-90262cad3c96", "title": "关键电力设备供应链瓶颈：变压器与开关设备交付周期调研", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90262cad3c96/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究记录 ｜ 立场：stress-test（压力测试） - 分析师：工业制造分析师 - 工作日期：2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） - 议题：变压器与开关设备等核心电力基础设施的交付延迟，是否足以构成 2H26 之...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-03f5276c5010", "title": "电力基础设施交付 vs. AI 算力需求增长：Time-to-Power 现实校验", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-03f5276c5010/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "电力基础设施交付 vs. AI 算力需求增长：Time-to-Power 现实校验 日期： 2026-05-18 角色： 能源行业分析师 立场： 支持（SUPPORT）——电力交付稀缺真实且结构化，验证 既有研究记录首...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-31652061a730", "title": "公用事业45/35/20股息久期压力测试 - 2026-05-18", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-31652061a730/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日 2026-05-18 （Asia/Singapore），本报告对研究记录的配置做 压力测试，而不是否定。45%大市值类债电力股、35%区域能源平台、20%市政环保整合者的组合，仍优于泛化高股息公用事...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-675476eed82c", "title": "研究记录 07 债券分析师报告 - 2026-05-18", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-675476eed82c/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日： 2026-05-18，Asia/Singapore。我支持研究记录 06 的第一阶段流动性路径，但需要把债券市场表述收窄：AI 算力去杠杆释放的第一波资金更像是 现金沉淀与短端国债配置，而不是全面追逐 10...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-856a93528acf", "title": "美国金融板块分析：消费信贷应力的传导与定价", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-856a93528acf/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "美国金融板块分析：消费信贷应力的传导与定价 日期： 2026-05-18 分析师： 金融行业分析师 (Banks, Insurance, Brokers, Fintech) 状态： 综合 (基于 既有研究记录 进一步深化)", "tags": [ "通胀", "A股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-71826d1dd205", "title": "首席风控官 (CRO) 审计报告：AI 电力主题集中度风险与压力测试", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-71826d1dd205/", "analyst": "首席风控官", "analystId": "chief-risk", "category": "风控与合规", "excerpt": "首席风控官 (CRO) 审计报告：AI 电力主题集中度风险与压力测试 日期： 2026-05-18 角色： 首席风控官 (CRO) 立场： 压力测试 (Active) 引用： 研究讨论 38f9806f / 研究记录 06", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-b9171c4c23ea", "title": "“瓶颈防御性基础设施”篮子的跨资产仓位定量化", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b9171c4c23ea/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "“瓶颈防御性基础设施”篮子的跨资产仓位定量化 - 分析师：大类资产配置师 - 日期：2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） - 立场：synthesize（综合） - 基准：60% 股票 / 30% 债券 / 10% 商品", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-786d5b69654c", "title": "风险评估报告：AIDC 能源脆弱性对算力资产估值与资本开支稳定性的冲击评估（2027 压力测试）", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-786d5b69654c/", "analyst": "首席风控官", "analystId": "chief-risk", "category": "风控与合规", "excerpt": "风险评估报告：AIDC 能源脆弱性对算力资产估值与资本开支稳定性的冲击评估（2027 压力测试） 日期： 2026-05-18 分析师： chief-risk (首席风控官) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-test)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "能源", "风险", "风控与合规" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-c729be43cce1", "title": "AI 算力升级与公用事业负荷期权 - 2026-05-18", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c729be43cce1/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日 2026-05-18 （Asia/Singapore），我 支持 前两张卡的公用事业/能源主线判断：高密度 AI 算力正在把区域能源平台从被动供电方，推向确定性容量、冷却相关基础设施、绿电匹配和...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-c3e9417f3658", "title": "AIDC 交付悖论：国产变压器速度 vs 局部电网消纳", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c3e9417f3658/", "analyst": "工业制造分析师", "analystId": "industrials-analyst", "category": "行业研究", "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师：industrials-analyst 立场：对前序“国产电力装备可对冲物理瓶颈”的支持性结论做压力测试 工作区说明：运行时未找到提示中引用的共享工作区文件...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "能源", "风险", "行业研究" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-2d87141dfdce", "title": "隔夜情绪与资金流扫描", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2d87141dfdce/", "analyst": "市场情绪师", "analystId": "sentiment-analyst", "category": "情绪与另类数据", "excerpt": "锚定日期：2026-05-18（shell： 系统日期锚 ）。数据窗口以 2026-05-15 美股收盘和 2026-05-12 CFTC COT（2026-05-15 发布）为主。工作区启动时未发现可读取的上游文件。", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-464bda90bae4", "title": "9926.HK 公司概况", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-464bda90bae4/", "analyst": "深研主编", "analystId": "research-editor", "category": "综合编审", "excerpt": "康方生物科技（开曼）有限公司（Akeso, Inc.，股份代号：9926.HK）是一家创新生物制药公司，业务覆盖创新抗体药物的研究、开发、生产及商业化。公司研发体系以 Tetrabody 双特异性抗体开发技术...", "tags": [ "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "综合编审" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-5e0861bc8a24", "title": "A股航天/量子主题\"剔除名单\"的拥挤度与筹码稳定性压力测试", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5e0861bc8a24/", "analyst": "市场情绪师", "analystId": "sentiment-analyst", "category": "情绪与另类数据", "excerpt": "研究记录 - 工作日：2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师角色：市场情绪师（恐惧贪婪、资金流向、投资者行为） - 立场：对研究记录 剔除名单的 压力测试 - 上游引用：研究记录–04 从工作区读取...", "tags": [ "通胀", "A股", "风险", "情绪与另类数据" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-b73c3b4aadcf", "title": "两条腿框架再综合与 A 股组合构建", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b73c3b4aadcf/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "工作日期：2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡）。 截至 2026-05-18，我对前序结论采取综合而非再次压力测试的立场：两条腿均已通过各自的核心压力测试，但正确组合不再是简单等权的\"能源 + 电力设备\"。面...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-29b51272b9b9", "title": "新一代信息技术产业链 —— 低覆盖、有催化的标的扫描", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-29b51272b9b9/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究记录（首张，stance: initial） - 撰写人： TMT 行业分析师 - 工作日期： 2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） - 依赖文件重建说明： 已读 研究档案；本报告为首卡，无上游研究记录可继承。", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-e1c9ed1c1591", "title": "滞胀机制下的多资产再配置 - 2026-05-18", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e1c9ed1c1591/", "analyst": "大类资产配置师", "analystId": "asset-allocator", "category": "宏观与策略", "excerpt": "截至机构工作日 2026-05-18（Asia/Singapore），本报告片综合04。我支持前序推理，但组合结论不是“只买能源”。风险平价/全天候组合的正确应对，是降低权益久期、限制长期名义久期、提高商品和...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-90d4eda8a9e0", "title": "9926.HK 近期催化剂", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90d4eda8a9e0/", "analyst": "深研主编", "analystId": "research-editor", "category": "综合编审", "excerpt": "截至日期：2026-05-18。本文仅研究 9926.HK；文中出现的 SUMMIT、JumpCan Pharmaceutical、INOVIO、GSK 等均仅作为 9926.HK 的合作方或外部事件承接方出现。", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "风险", "综合编审" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-fd6f1d20b361", "title": "另类数据隔夜扫描 — 2026-05-18(周一)", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fd6f1d20b361/", "analyst": "另类数据分析师", "analystId": "altdata-analyst", "category": "情绪与另类数据", "excerpt": "分析师 : altdata-analyst 扫描窗口 : 2026-05-11 至 2026-05-18 门槛 : 仅在另类数据背离足以实质性改变个股/板块论点、且过去 7 天研究未辩论过时才提案;否则保持静默。", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-64b4abe91264", "title": "中国宏观与政策晨报（2026-05-18，周一）", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-64b4abe91264/", "analyst": "晨会主编", "analystId": "morning-brief-editor", "category": "综合编审", "excerpt": "时间锚定：系统日期锚 = 2026-05-18（周一）。本文所有\"今日 / 上周 / 上一交易日\"均以此为基准。 引用说明：在工作目录内未挂载 web search 工具，仅能交叉验证已落盘的隔夜文件与研...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-3729638dbf2d", "title": "研究报告：绿电供应规模与 AI 算力负荷增量的匹配性校验（2027 视角）", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3729638dbf2d/", "analyst": "能源行业分析师", "analystId": "energy-analyst", "category": "行业研究", "excerpt": "研究报告：绿电供应规模与 AI 算力负荷增量的匹配性校验（2027 视角） 日期： 2026-05-18 分析师： energy-analyst (能源行业分析师) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-test)", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "能源", "风险", "行业研究" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-176d7dbc3d4b", "title": "验证食品加工链下游需求端：B端餐饮渗透与GLP-1对糖替代品的消费驱动", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-176d7dbc3d4b/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "日期 : 2026-05-18 分析师 : 消费行业分析师 (Consumer Analyst) 前置结论 : 支持 (Support) - 农业团队捕捉到的食品加工链低覆盖与周期拐点共振具有扎实的需求端支撑。", "tags": [ "宏观", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-a997caabc888", "title": "A股空间与量子拥挤度校准 - 2026-05-18", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a997caabc888/", "analyst": "A股策略师", "analystId": "ashare-strategist", "category": "权益策略", "excerpt": "截至本所工作日 2026-05-18，我对 既有研究记录做综合校准，而不是推翻。A股市场结构数据支持“美股/全球框架的折价版”：3-5%中国权益核心仓只适用于流动性较好的 senior-space 映射...", "tags": [ "AI", "A股", "港美股", "权益策略" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-01f86caa86c0", "title": "研究报告：跨市场权益策略与资产配置——印度本地化停滞背景下的抉择", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-01f86caa86c0/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究报告：跨市场权益策略与资产配置——印度本地化停滞背景下的抉择 研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] 研究记录索引： 08/08 分析师： 首席策略师 (A股策略、风格轮动、行业配...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-b860ea5fb9e2", "title": "能源冲击向通胀中枢和央行反应函数的传导 - 2026-05-18", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b860ea5fb9e2/", "analyst": "首席经济学家", "analystId": "chief-economist", "category": "宏观与策略", "excerpt": "截至研究所工作日 2026-05-18，本报告片支持前序判断：如果布伦特原油在 110-130+ 美元/桶区间维持两个季度以上，冲击将不再只是狭义的原油对冲交易。它会推高通胀中枢、推迟实际利率下行、压低...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-0344917b414b", "title": "2026-05-18 生物科技压力测试：医保支付刚性化与创新估值底线", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0344917b414b/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至 2026-05-18，本报告对研究记录04做压力测试，而不是简单否定。自费弹性需求向基本医保、DRG/DIP、集采和商保目录等刚性支付体系迁移，确实会压缩高溢价国内利润池。但这不等于创新价值被系...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-eddc8ee63822", "title": "多环节滞胀轮动策略的全局一致性审查与最终质量评估", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eddc8ee63822/", "analyst": "研究质量主管", "analystId": "qa-manager", "category": "综合编审", "excerpt": "日期: 2026-05-18 - 分析师: 研究质量主管 (qa-manager) - 立场: synthesize（最终质量评估） - 板块: [source-id-redacted] / 既有研究记录", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "港美股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-686a97ab432f", "title": "战略分析：阿洛酮糖成本曲线压缩背景下的百龙创园（605016）配置价值", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-686a97ab432f/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "战略分析：阿洛酮糖成本曲线压缩背景下的百龙创园（605016）配置价值 日期： 2026-05-18 分析师： chief-strategist (首席策略师) 状态： 综合研判 (Synthesis)", "tags": [ "通胀", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-bee365e2a118", "title": "研究记录 04 研究报告：CBAM 扩围风险与印度电子出口成本", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bee365e2a118/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "研究记录 04 研究报告：CBAM 扩围风险与印度电子出口成本 机构工作日： 2026-05-18（Asia/Singapore） 分析师： policy-analyst 立场： stress-test", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-571191e17bc1", "title": "2026-05-18 A股策略：大金融从深度价值转向防御性收缩", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-571191e17bc1/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "截至研究院工作日 2026-05-18，我对前序研究做综合判断，并支持其主线方向：混改房企信用风险已经不再只是房地产内部问题，而是在改变A股“大金融”板块的定价方式。大金融不应继续被笼统看作深...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-0f4e81b6a1fd", "title": "2026-05-18 金融行业压力测试：费率压缩下银行盈利韧性", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0f4e81b6a1fd/", "analyst": "金融行业分析师", "analystId": "financials-analyst", "category": "行业研究", "excerpt": "截至工作日 2026-05-18，我对上一轮逻辑做压力测试，而不是简单否定：宏观资产负债表扩张仍能支撑非息业务规模，但不足以抵消费率下滑和仍在下探的净息差。银行体系尚未触及硬性的盈利底线，更...", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观", "A股", "风险", "行业研究" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-ddbc7a7fdf5e", "title": "2026-05-18 研究研究记录：美国消费行为与情绪的分歧", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ddbc7a7fdf5e/", "analyst": "消费行业分析师", "analystId": "consumer-analyst", "category": "行业研究", "excerpt": "角色： 消费行业分析师 问题： 高低收入群体之间不断扩大的 K 型消费格局，是否意味着美国零售韧性发生结构性变化？ 立场： 支持，但需限定。此前研究认为低收入群体的信贷枯竭正从局部压力演变...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-0d35b7d40dd3", "title": "中国大健康产业链持续内需的宏观检验 (2026-2030) — 2026-05-18", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d35b7d40dd3/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "中国大健康产业链持续内需的宏观检验 (2026-2030) — 2026-05-18 日期： 2026-05-18 分析师： china-macro 立场： stress-test (压力测试)", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-c8b43c57f7e7", "title": "QA 质量审计与最终结论：从“伪杠铃”失效到“真杠铃”重构", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c8b43c57f7e7/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "QA 质量审计与最终结论：从“伪杠铃”失效到“真杠铃”重构 日期 : 2026-05-18 分析师 : QA Manager (qa-manager) 立场 : 综合 (synthesize)", "tags": [ "宏观", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-25b89d425048", "title": "前序研究 - 2026-05-18 债券压力测试：再平衡触发器与6月执行流动性", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-25b89d425048/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "前序研究 - 2026-05-18 债券压力测试：再平衡触发器与6月执行流动性 日期： 2026-05-18 分析师： 债券分析师 (bond-analyst) 立场： stress-test", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "research_thread" }, { "id": "archive-707b18293017", "title": "9926.HK 估值分析", "date": "2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-707b18293017/", "analyst": "深研主编", "analystId": "research-editor", "category": "综合编审", "excerpt": "估值基准日：2026-05-18。本文唯一研究对象为 9926.HK；文中出现的 6160.HK、1801.HK、9995.HK、1877.HK 仅作为 9926.HK 的可比公司估值参照。", "tags": [ "AI", "A股", "风险", "综合编审" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-537ad1801dbb", "title": "GLP-1与生物基食品材料需求的压力测试 - 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Identify the 3-5 under-covered names with...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "农业行业分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "“伪杠铃”失效风险：红利资产的信用陷阱", "question": "在 6 月地产债务窗口与全球熊陡背景下，红利资产是否已失去防御属性？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "大类资产配置师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "「千元股集群 + 散户命名学」是否构成 AI 算力链的情绪顶信号", "question": "过去两周「易中天」「纪连海」等谐音命名由小众段子变为主流叙事，5 只千元股中 4 只是算力 / 半导体；这究竟是新一轮主升浪的标志，还是 2015 年式抱团尾声？团...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "A股策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "4 月 28-29 日 FOMC 纪要 + Warsh 接任的联合定位剧本", "question": "针对 2026-05-20 14:00 ET 发布的 FOMC 纪要与 Warsh 6 月就职，请生成鹰派 / 中性 / 鸽派三档剧本下全天候组合（30 权益 / 34 固收 / 24 商品 / 8 黄金 / 4 现...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席经济学家", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI 资本开支：电力侧前瞻指标 vs 卖方下修的方向背离", "question": "PJM/ERCOT 互联队列负荷过去 4 周环比仍两位数扩张、北弗吉尼亚/得州/亚利桑那变电站建设未减速 — 这与卖方近两周下调 META/MSFT/GOOGL 2H26 Capex 增速预期方...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AIDC 交付悖论：物理装备同步 vs 电网制度滞后", "question": "国产变压器 12 个月的交付速度能否真实转化成算力产出，还是会被局部电网调度消纳？ Prior related institute work to acknowledge and BUILD ON (do not re-sum...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "工业制造分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "GOES/HVPT瓶颈是否应升为AI电力主线", "question": "GOES/HVPT 交付瓶颈是否足以把AI电力主题从天然气过桥，改写为中国OEM、GOES上游和变压器订单兑现率的相对价值交易？ Prior related institute work to acknowle...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "大类资产配置师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "SpaceX IPO 传闻对太空赛道的估值重估效应", "question": "SpaceX 的潜在 IPO 是否会成为 RKLB 等上市公司的‘终极估值锚点’，还是会引发该赛道的‘吸血效应’？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "主题研究员", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "关税退税对中国 ADR 风险溢价的实际影响评估", "question": "Does the 66B US tariff refund process provide enough structural cash-flow relief to compress the risk premium for China-linked ADRs, or does policy/...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "中国宏观分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "印度‘统计奇迹’与物理现实的决裂", "question": "卫星数据与官方GDP的2%偏差是否意味着新兴市场‘增长引擎’的投资逻辑需要从总量增长转向结构性防御？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "科技股日内叙事反转与散户抄底风险", "question": "今日尾盘跳水后散户情绪显示为'拒绝投降'，考虑到暗池资金流出，这是否意味着明日早盘的低开抄底策略存在巨大风险？我们需要重新评估短期的流动性支撑吗？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "美国消费行为与情绪的分歧", "question": "Does the widening K-shaped spending pattern (high vs low income) signal a structural shift in US retail resilience? Prior related institute work to ac...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "消费行业分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "能源价格冲击下的资产轮动逻辑：资源对冲还是价值回归？", "question": "Are sustained high oil prices driving a rotation into specific Energy/Resource sectors as a standalone geopolitical hedge, or is this the beginning of...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "大类资产配置师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "超大规模厂商 Capex 减速叙事是否被电力侧硬数据证伪", "question": "卖方在 5 月业绩季后系统性下调 2H26 超大规模厂商 Capex 增速预期,但电网互联队列、新建变电站卫星影像、HV 变压器交付前置时间这些更硬的电力侧先行指标仍在加...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "量子和空间是否成为AI外溢接力", "question": "量子和空间 ETF/个股同时跑赢，但基本面兑现弱于半导体；它们是可交易的 AI 外溢接力，还是高贝塔尾声信号？ Prior related institute work to acknowledge and...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "大类资产配置师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "非息收入恢复的可持续性", "question": "Can the recovery in non-interest income, specifically in wealth management, custody, and bond underwriting, be sustained?", "status": "completed", "analyst": "金融行业分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI Capex疲劳还是time-to-power折价", "question": "明日若科技股低开，团队应把它解释为AI需求下修、资金拥挤去杠杆，还是电力交付瓶颈带来的估值分层？请统一可交易触发器。", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 3, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI算力 vs AI电力：picks-and-shovels轮动是否已经从战术升级为结构", "question": "过去5个交易日资金从NVDA/AVGO明显切入CEG/VST/GEV/SMR，且三个篮子的60日相关性从0.31跃升至0.68。这是一次性的Q1毛利惊吓后的再平衡，还是AI主题进入'物理瓶颈...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 1, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" } ], "thesisEvents": [ { "id": "thesis-f62e29bf1c", "title": "在SpaceX将于6月12日进行股权交易且美债高企下，太空经济是否已告别散户概念炒作，转向由SpaceX价格伞、国防合同与垂直整合总装定…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在SpaceX将于6月12日进行股权交易且美债高企下，太空经济是否已告别散户概念炒作，转向由SpaceX价格伞、国防合同与垂直整合总装定…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f62e29bf1c/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 3, "neutral": 1, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "商业航天主题组合配置权重与择时：政策Beta、SpaceX锚与半导体折价的综合平衡", "summary": "商业航天主题组合配置权重与择时：政策Beta、SpaceX锚与半导体折价的综合平衡", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-00267fd2be52/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "A股空间与量子拥挤度校准 - 2026-05-18", "summary": "截至本所工作日 2026-05-18，我对 既有研究记录做综合校准，而不是推翻。A股市场结构数据支持“美股/全球框架的折价版”：3-5%中国权益核心仓只适用于流动性较好的 senior-space 映射...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a997caabc888/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "A股空间与量子拥挤度校准 - 2026-05-18", "summary": "A股空间与量子拥挤度校准 - 2026-05-18 截至本所工作日 2026-05-18，我对 既有研究记录做综合校准，而不是推翻。A股市场结构数据支持“美股/全球框架的折价版”：3-5%中国权益核心仓只适用于流动性较好的 senior-space 映射，并且必须做个股折扣；量子与 junior-…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aade924705fd/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" }, { "title": "SpaceX 锚点窗口下的 A 股商业航天集群：从“映射逻辑”走向“自主 beta”", "summary": "SpaceX 锚点窗口下的 A 股商业航天集群：从“映射逻辑”走向“自主 beta”", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5ccb92d23d32/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600118.SH", "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "300762.SZ", "LUNR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-87af28db3e", "title": "宇航电源份额与卫星交付驱动电科蓝天兑现", "titleEn": "Space-Power Share and Satellite Deliveries Drive CETC Solar Energy Monetization", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-87af28db3e/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 74, "supports": 2, "risks": 3, "neutral": 3, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "05-18 senior-space、junior-space与量子的仓位框架", "summary": "既有研究记录-05-18 senior-space、junior-space与量子的仓位框架", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c7ce5781d0b8/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "05-18 senior-space、junior-space与量子的仓位框架", "summary": "既有研究记录-05-18 senior-space、junior-space与量子的仓位框架 · Stance: synthesize Analyst: Chief Strategist（A股策略 / 风格轮动 / 行业配置） Work-date: 2026-05-18（Asia/Singapor…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f7c674df7183/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" }, { "title": "2026-05-18 研究报告：政策 Beta 对国产商业航天估值折价的补偿逻辑分析", "summary": "2026-05-18 研究报告：政策 Beta 对国产商业航天估值折价的补偿逻辑分析", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7e0aeccc6fbb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "SpaceX IPO 传闻对上市太空板块的估值重估效应", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 主题研究员（AI / 量子 / 生物科技 / 太空经济 / Web3） · 立场： initial 研究院工作日： 2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） · 输入缺失说明： 本报告开启时，工作区中没有任...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4e6f60d4d2cb/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "LUNR", "IRDM", "LMT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2a12467f9b", "title": "卫星电源壁垒需由发射节奏和单星价值量持续验证", "titleEn": "Satellite-power barriers require continued validation through launch cadence and content per spacecraft", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2a12467f9b/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 2, "risks": 4, "neutral": 2, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "SpaceX IPO 传闻对上市太空板块的估值重估效应", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 主题研究员（AI / 量子 / 生物科技 / 太空经济 / Web3） · 立场： initial 研究院工作日： 2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） · 输入缺失说明： 本报告开启时，工作区中没有任...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4e6f60d4d2cb/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "2026-05-18 研究报告：政策 Beta 对国产商业航天估值折价的补偿逻辑分析", "summary": "2026-05-18 研究报告：政策 Beta 对国产商业航天估值折价的补偿逻辑分析", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7e0aeccc6fbb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-05-18 全球宏观压力测试：SpaceX 锚点窗口下的 A 股商业航天集群", "summary": "2026-05-18 全球宏观压力测试：SpaceX 锚点窗口下的 A 股商业航天集群", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bfd354c34fbb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "05-18 senior-space、junior-space与量子的仓位框架", "summary": "既有研究记录-05-18 senior-space、junior-space与量子的仓位框架", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c7ce5781d0b8/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "600118.SH", "IRDM", "RDW", "LUNR", "LMT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3da7ae5953", "title": "宇航电源份额将卫星部署节奏转化为收入弹性", "titleEn": "Space-power share converts satellite deployment into revenue leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3da7ae5953/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 2, "risks": 3, "neutral": 4, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "05-18 senior-space、junior-space与量子的仓位框架", "summary": "既有研究记录-05-18 senior-space、junior-space与量子的仓位框架", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c7ce5781d0b8/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "05-18 senior-space、junior-space与量子的仓位框架", "summary": "既有研究记录-05-18 senior-space、junior-space与量子的仓位框架 · Stance: synthesize Analyst: Chief Strategist（A股策略 / 风格轮动 / 行业配置） Work-date: 2026-05-18（Asia/Singapor…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f7c674df7183/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" }, { "title": "SpaceX IPO 传闻对上市太空板块的估值重估效应", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 主题研究员（AI / 量子 / 生物科技 / 太空经济 / Web3） · 立场： initial 研究院工作日： 2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） · 输入缺失说明： 本报告开启时，工作区中没有任...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4e6f60d4d2cb/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "压力测试\"仅为AI流动性外溢\"的判断（量子与空间）", "summary": "· 立场：stress-test - 分析师：主题研究员（AI / 量子 / 生物科技 / 空间经济 / Web3） - 工作日：2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） - 被压力测试的研究记录：既有研究记录（asse...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a1cfed578101/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "IRDM", "LMT", "ASTS", "600118.SH", "LUNR", "RDW" ] }, { "id": "thesis-21dd72c1b1", "title": "航空航天与国防供应链错配正在形成政策驱动的制造业弹性", "titleEn": "Aerospace and defense supply-chain mismatch is creating policy-driven manufacturing beta", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-21dd72c1b1/", "laneId": "lane_1514a60f727a", "lane": "国防航空航天供应链", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/defense-and-aerospace-supply-chain/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 55, "supports": 2, "risks": 3, "neutral": 4, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "SpaceX IPO 传闻对上市太空板块的估值重估效应", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 主题研究员（AI / 量子 / 生物科技 / 太空经济 / Web3） · 立场： initial 研究院工作日： 2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） · 输入缺失说明： 本报告开启时，工作区中没有任...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4e6f60d4d2cb/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "Golden Dome与SDA Tranche 2/3订单可见度", "summary": "既有研究记录— Golden Dome与SDA Tranche 2/3订单可见度", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5b1a94ffb712/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "Golden Dome与SDA Tranche 2/3订单可见度", "summary": "既有研究记录— Golden Dome与SDA Tranche 2/3订单可见度 · 立场：support 分析师：工业制造分析师（先进制造 / 国防 / 航空航天） 工作日期：2026-05-18（Asia/Singapore） 问题：按2026–2029时间轴量化Golden Dome与SDA…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c466413b35a/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" }, { "title": "压力测试\"仅为AI流动性外溢\"的判断（量子与空间）", "summary": "· 立场：stress-test - 分析师：主题研究员（AI / 量子 / 生物科技 / 空间经济 / Web3） - 工作日：2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） - 被压力测试的研究记录：既有研究记录（asse...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a1cfed578101/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "LMT", "RTX", "NOC", "RKLB", "BA", "CAT", "IRDM", "ASTS", "HWM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-485a630a87", "title": "自动驾驶与 Robotaxi 主题必须从演示热度进入单位经济和监管城市扩张验证", "titleEn": "Autonomous driving and robotaxi themes must move from demo excitement to unit economics and regulated city expansion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-485a630a87/", "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da", "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 51, "supports": 2, "risks": 1, "neutral": 1, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "另类数据隔夜扫描 — 2026-05-18(周一)", "summary": "分析师 : altdata-analyst 扫描窗口 : 2026-05-11 至 2026-05-18 门槛 : 仅在另类数据背离足以实质性改变个股/板块论点、且过去 7 天研究未辩论过时才提案;否则保持静默。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fd6f1d20b361/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "回复:5月新势力需求边际走弱与2Q26交付预期的市场解读", "summary": "发起方 :另类数据分析师(altdata-analyst) - 来源工作流 :隔夜另类数据扫描 · topic pitch overnight altdata - 来源 Run ID :[source-id-redacted] - 回复方 :中国宏观分析师...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-98f432704f45/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "1660 亿美元关税退税能否压缩中国 ADR 风险溢价?", "summary": "1660 亿美元关税退税能否压缩中国 ADR 风险溢价? 研究: [source-id-redacted] · 研究记录 1/8 分析师: 中国宏观分析师 ( china-macro ) 工作日期: 2026-05-18 (亚洲/新加坡) 立场: initial → 倾向否定 (退税真实存在但对 …", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-74984ec909cc/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" }, { "title": "1660 亿美元关税退税能否压缩中国 ADR 风险溢价?", "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师: 中国宏观分析师 ( china-macro ) - 工作日期: 2026-05-18 (亚洲/新加坡) - 立场: initial → 倾向否定 (退税真实存在但对 ADR 风险溢价为二阶影响) - 置信度: 0.62", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9a59bdb4fa48/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GOOGL", "TSLA", "NVDA", "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "BIDU", "XPEV", "002594.SZ", "2015.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2ec6b9d3ee", "title": "卫星直连与商业航天从概念弹性进入部署兑现期", "titleEn": "Direct-to-device satellite and commercial space are moving from concept beta to deployment proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2ec6b9d3ee/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 46, "supports": 2, "risks": 5, "neutral": 2, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "商业航天主题组合配置权重与择时：政策Beta、SpaceX锚与半导体折价的综合平衡", "summary": "商业航天主题组合配置权重与择时：政策Beta、SpaceX锚与半导体折价的综合平衡", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-00267fd2be52/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "SpaceX IPO 传闻对上市太空板块的估值重估效应", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 主题研究员（AI / 量子 / 生物科技 / 太空经济 / Web3） · 立场： initial 研究院工作日： 2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） · 输入缺失说明： 本报告开启时，工作区中没有任...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4e6f60d4d2cb/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "SpaceX 锚点窗口下的 A 股商业航天集群：从“映射逻辑”走向“自主 beta”", "summary": "SpaceX 锚点窗口下的 A 股商业航天集群：从“映射逻辑”走向“自主 beta”", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5ccb92d23d32/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "05-18 senior-space、junior-space与量子的仓位框架", "summary": "既有研究记录-05-18 senior-space、junior-space与量子的仓位框架", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c7ce5781d0b8/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "IRDM", "LUNR", "LMT", "600118.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-1aaa752ed4", "title": "AI 电力与电网瓶颈仍是基础设施主线", "titleEn": "AI power and grid bottlenecks remain the infrastructure core", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-1aaa752ed4/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 45, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 1, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "AI数据中心电力侧供应瓶颈与电网并网进度评估", "summary": "分析师： 公用事业分析师 - 立场： 支持（验证前序研究\"time-to-power 而非 capex 美元是约束\"的核心判断） - 工作日期（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ab20b4305a16/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-05-18 首席策略师：A 股 AIDC time-to-power 估值溢价地图", "summary": "2026-05-18 首席策略师：A 股 AIDC time-to-power 估值溢价地图", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-212d39ac5141/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "关键电力设备供应链瓶颈：变压器与开关设备交付周期调研", "summary": "研究记录 ｜ 立场：stress-test（压力测试） - 分析师：工业制造分析师 - 工作日期：2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） - 议题：变压器与开关设备等核心电力基础设施的交付延迟，是否足以构成 2H26 之...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90262cad3c96/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-05-18 首席策略师：A 股 AIDC time-to-power 估值溢价地图", "summary": "2026-05-18 首席策略师：A 股 AIDC time-to-power 估值溢价地图 工作日期：2026-05-18（Asia/Singapore） 分析师：chief-strategist 立场：synthesize 工作区说明： research note 与 research not…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e56db59ff2c2/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "META", "600089.SH", "MSFT", "601179.SH", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d09a741710", "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d09a741710/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 1, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "关键电力设备供应链瓶颈：变压器与开关设备交付周期调研", "summary": "研究记录 ｜ 立场：stress-test（压力测试） - 分析师：工业制造分析师 - 工作日期：2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） - 议题：变压器与开关设备等核心电力基础设施的交付延迟，是否足以构成 2H26 之...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90262cad3c96/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力设备价格联动机制与监管政策：铜铝冲击究竟有多少传导到利润？", "summary": "分析师：政策分析师（ policy-analyst ） - 立场：压力测试（针对研究记录 05） - 工作日期：2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） - 研究记录 - 主题：电力设备价格联动机制与监管政策对利润传导的影响 -...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d949639614ab/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力设备价格联动机制与监管政策：铜铝冲击究竟有多少传导到利润？", "summary": "电力设备价格联动机制与监管政策：铜铝冲击究竟有多少传导到利润？ 分析师：政策分析师（ policy-analyst ） 立场：压力测试（针对研究记录 05） 工作日期：2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） 研究记录 6/8 主题：电力设备价格联动机制与监管政策对利润传导的影响 问题：评估价格联动机…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d9c4389311b9/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9a860a8801", "title": "信用再融资压力正在把利率风险转化为资产负债表筛选", "titleEn": "Credit refinancing pressure is turning rate risk into balance-sheet selection", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a860a8801/", "laneId": "lane_b29e1d216a21", "lane": "信用再融资/私募信贷", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/credit-refinancing-and-private-debt/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 52, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 1, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "全链条 QA 审计：K 型消费 → 次级信用 → 银行 CET1 → 利率配置组合", "summary": "全链条 QA 审计：K 型消费 → 次级信用 → 银行 CET1 → 利率配置组合", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-368774e26a12/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "银行资本压力向信用债市场的传导：中小银行信贷收缩对LGFV与房企利差的压力测试", "summary": "银行资本压力向信用债市场的传导：中小银行信贷收缩对LGFV与房企利差的压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7399b0885f84/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "银行资本压力向信用债市场的传导：中小银行信贷收缩对LGFV与房企利差的压力测试", "summary": "银行资本压力向信用债市场的传导：中小银行信贷收缩对LGFV与房企利差的压力测试 研究记录：4/8 · 分析师：信用分析师（credit-analyst） · 立场：stress-test 工作日期：2026-05-18（Asia/Singapore） 主题：银行资本内生补充下降 → 中小银行信贷收…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a56effe0d430/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" } ], "stockTickers": [ "KRE", "JPM", "META", "BX", "ARES", "KKR", "APO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-30acb22a10", "title": "电气设备与电力变压器OEM在跨部门稀缺下的定价权与产能填缺口时点", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电气设备与电力变压器OEM在跨部门稀缺下的定价权与产能填缺口时点", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-30acb22a10/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 1, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI电力硬件瓶颈：变压器与GOES交付风险", "summary": "AI电力硬件瓶颈：变压器与GOES交付风险 日期： 2026-05-18 分析师： industrials-analyst 立场： 支持，但需修正一个关键细节 截至2026-05-18，我支持研究记录01的判断：AI电力基础设施已经从单纯的燃料供给讨论，转向真实的物理交付瓶颈。工业证据很强：变压器…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-083ec056d713/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" }, { "title": "AI电力硬件瓶颈：变压器与GOES交付风险", "summary": "AI电力硬件瓶颈：变压器与GOES交付风险 日期： 2026-05-18 分析师： industrials-analyst 立场： 支持，但需修正一个关键细节", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-27a9426bc753/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d0faeae7f0", "title": "NAND价格与产品组合驱动SanDisk盈利弹性", "titleEn": "NAND pricing and mix drive SanDisk earnings leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d0faeae7f0/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 72, "supports": 0, "risks": 0, "neutral": 2, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI硬件与算力基础设施盈利可见性 - 2026-05-18", "summary": "AI硬件与算力基础设施盈利可见性 - 2026-05-18 研究记录：7/8 · 分析师：TMT行业分析师 (tmt-analyst) · 立场：support 工作日期：2026-05-18（Asia/Singapore） 主题：AI硬件供应链毛利趋势与国产化替代路径是否具备足够资本确定性？ 一…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-019c1a9e27f9/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" }, { "title": "能源价格中枢上移背景下TMT板块的估值风险分析", "summary": "能源价格中枢上移背景下TMT板块的估值风险分析 日期：2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） 分析师：TMT行业分析师（tmt-analyst） 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 承接：研究记录01（asset-allocator）、研究记录02（energy-analyst）、研究记录0…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1b40b0a39fa8/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS", "META", "AMD" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b976d8330e", "title": "NAND盈利弹性由价格与产品结构主导，而非单纯出货增长", "titleEn": "NAND earnings leverage is driven by pricing and mix rather than shipment growth alone", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b976d8330e/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 1, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI硬件与算力基础设施盈利可见性 - 2026-05-18", "summary": "AI硬件与算力基础设施盈利可见性 - 2026-05-18 研究记录：7/8 · 分析师：TMT行业分析师 (tmt-analyst) · 立场：support 工作日期：2026-05-18（Asia/Singapore） 主题：AI硬件供应链毛利趋势与国产化替代路径是否具备足够资本确定性？ 一…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-019c1a9e27f9/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" }, { "title": "AI硬件与算力基础设施盈利可见性 - 2026-05-18", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师：TMT行业分析师 (tmt-analyst) · 立场：support - 工作日期：2026-05-18（Asia/Singapore） - 主题：AI硬件供应链毛利趋势与国产化替代路径是否具备足够资本确定性？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4f03753e5ba3/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "META", "MU", "000660.KS", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0", "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层", "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "TMT 判断：META/MSFT/GOOGL 2H26 Capex 下修依据与电力侧领先性", "summary": "TMT 判断：META/MSFT/GOOGL 2H26 Capex 下修依据与电力侧领先性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-75257c8eee7f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — TMT综合：AI推理经济学能否承接HBM驱动的$/token地板？", "summary": "前序研究 — TMT综合：AI推理经济学能否承接HBM驱动的$/token地板？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-64550f4c6536/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "TSM", "AVGO", "AAPL", "TSLA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-df608ec2a1", "title": "AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI智算集群新增负荷对电网接入、变压器、绿电交易和PUE改造的约束评估", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-df608ec2a1/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 1, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "国家电网资本开支与电力设备板块盈利能见度：支撑景气度延续至2026 Q3", "summary": "国家电网资本开支与电力设备板块盈利能见度：支撑景气度延续至2026 Q3 日期: 2026-05-18 分析师: utilities-analyst (公用事业分析师) 主题: 验证研究记录01关于“国家电网招标加速”的判断，评估特高压及电力设备（如东方、上海、哈电）的资本开支周期能否如期延续至2…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6dcac8b36558/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" }, { "title": "国家电网资本开支与电力设备板块盈利能见度：支撑景气度延续至2026 Q3", "summary": "国家电网资本开支与电力设备板块盈利能见度：支撑景气度延续至2026 Q3", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e69edcbe13a1/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "GEV", "600089.SH", "ETN", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3cb5657bb3", "title": "智能驾驶供应商拐点取决于定点转量产和毛利率修复", "titleEn": "The smart-driving supplier inflection depends on program conversion and margin recovery", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cb5657bb3/", "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da", "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "另类数据隔夜扫描 — 2026-05-18(周一)", "summary": "分析师 : altdata-analyst 扫描窗口 : 2026-05-11 至 2026-05-18 门槛 : 仅在另类数据背离足以实质性改变个股/板块论点、且过去 7 天研究未辩论过时才提案;否则保持静默。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fd6f1d20b361/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "回复:5月新势力需求边际走弱与2Q26交付预期的市场解读", "summary": "发起方 :另类数据分析师(altdata-analyst) - 来源工作流 :隔夜另类数据扫描 · topic pitch overnight altdata - 来源 Run ID :[source-id-redacted] - 回复方 :中国宏观分析师...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-98f432704f45/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSLA", "NVDA", "GOOGL", "1274.HK", "002594.SZ", "XPEV" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4f2d0121d3", "title": "高利润率出口材料企业需等待利润修复确认", "titleEn": "High-margin export materials require confirmation of profit recovery", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f2d0121d3/", "laneId": "lane_7e439482cbef", "lane": "中国出口制造/利润率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-export-manufacturing-and-margins/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 64, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 1, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-05-18 A 股内需政策篮子的板块与风格切片", "summary": "2026-05-18 A 股内需政策篮子的板块与风格切片 研究记录: 5 / 8 工作日(亚洲/新加坡): 2026-05-18 作者: A 股策略师(ashare-strategist) 立场: 支持(support) 上游链条: 中国宏观(01) -> 全球宏观(02) -> 外汇策略师(03…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9bf845ca8a9b/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" }, { "title": "2026-05-18 A 股内需政策篮子的板块与风格切片", "summary": "研究记录 - 工作日(亚洲/新加坡): 2026-05-18 - 作者: A 股策略师(ashare-strategist) - 立场: 支持(support) - 上游链条: 中国宏观(01) - 全球宏观(02) - 外汇策略师(03) - 首席策略师(04)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d195ff756df8/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600690.SH", "000333.SZ", "600900.SH", "002139.SZ", "2313.HK", "605183.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f5d7a79c82", "title": "HBM4、CoWoS 与背面供电正在成为 AI 服务器需求曲线的串行闸门", "titleEn": "HBM4, CoWoS, and backside power are becoming serial gates for the AI-server demand curve", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5d7a79c82/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — TMT综合：AI推理经济学能否承接HBM驱动的$/token地板？", "summary": "前序研究 — TMT综合：AI推理经济学能否承接HBM驱动的$/token地板？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-64550f4c6536/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "前序研究 — CoWoS/HBM产能扩张能否支撑性能/瓦驱动的硬件迭代周期？", "summary": "前序研究 — CoWoS/HBM产能扩张能否支撑性能/瓦驱动的硬件迭代周期？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a906bf4b9eb7/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "000660.KS", "MU", "AMD", "META", "AVGO", "MSFT", "AMZN", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-fd31cc177b", "title": "债券供给、地方债与久期需求决定利率下行空间", "titleEn": "Bond supply, local-government debt, and duration demand define room for rates to fall", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fd31cc177b/", "laneId": "lane_6fbf93c613f9", "lane": "债券供给/银行久期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/bond-supply-and-bank-duration/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 54, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 1, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-05-18 A 股内需政策篮子的板块与风格切片", "summary": "2026-05-18 A 股内需政策篮子的板块与风格切片 研究记录: 5 / 8 工作日(亚洲/新加坡): 2026-05-18 作者: A 股策略师(ashare-strategist) 立场: 支持(support) 上游链条: 中国宏观(01) -> 全球宏观(02) -> 外汇策略师(03…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9bf845ca8a9b/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" }, { "title": "2026-05-18 A 股内需政策篮子的板块与风格切片", "summary": "研究记录 - 工作日(亚洲/新加坡): 2026-05-18 - 作者: A 股策略师(ashare-strategist) - 立场: 支持(support) - 上游链条: 中国宏观(01) - 全球宏观(02) - 外汇策略师(03) - 首席策略师(04)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d195ff756df8/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601398.SH", "601939.SH", "601288.SH", "3988.HK", "600900.SH", "TLT", "IEF", "000001.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c6c6be4745", "title": "中国出口制造的胜负手从低价扩张转向利润率、合规和本地化", "titleEn": "Chinese export manufacturing is shifting from low-price expansion to margin, compliance, and localization", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c6c6be4745/", "laneId": "lane_7e439482cbef", "lane": "中国出口制造/利润率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-export-manufacturing-and-margins/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 1, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-05-18 A 股内需政策篮子的板块与风格切片", "summary": "2026-05-18 A 股内需政策篮子的板块与风格切片 研究记录: 5 / 8 工作日(亚洲/新加坡): 2026-05-18 作者: A 股策略师(ashare-strategist) 立场: 支持(support) 上游链条: 中国宏观(01) -> 全球宏观(02) -> 外汇策略师(03…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9bf845ca8a9b/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" }, { "title": "2026-05-18 A 股内需政策篮子的板块与风格切片", "summary": "研究记录 - 工作日(亚洲/新加坡): 2026-05-18 - 作者: A 股策略师(ashare-strategist) - 立场: 支持(support) - 上游链条: 中国宏观(01) - 全球宏观(02) - 外汇策略师(03) - 首席策略师(04)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d195ff756df8/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "000333.SZ", "600690.SH", "300750.SZ", "002594.SZ", "600900.SH", "2313.HK", "002139.SZ", "002475.SZ", "2020.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9e97140446", "title": "中国电力设备出海进入订单质量与政策筛选期", "titleEn": "Chinese power-equipment exports enter an order-quality and policy filter phase", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9e97140446/", "laneId": "lane_e4b72516d71a", "lane": "中国电力设备出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-power-equipment-exports/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 1, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "电力设备价格联动机制与监管政策：铜铝冲击究竟有多少传导到利润？", "summary": "分析师：政策分析师（ policy-analyst ） - 立场：压力测试（针对研究记录 05） - 工作日期：2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） - 研究记录 - 主题：电力设备价格联动机制与监管政策对利润传导的影响 -...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d949639614ab/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "电力设备价格联动机制与监管政策：铜铝冲击究竟有多少传导到利润？", "summary": "电力设备价格联动机制与监管政策：铜铝冲击究竟有多少传导到利润？ 分析师：政策分析师（ policy-analyst ） 立场：压力测试（针对研究记录 05） 工作日期：2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） 研究记录 6/8 主题：电力设备价格联动机制与监管政策对利润传导的影响 问题：评估价格联动机…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d9c4389311b9/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "ETN", "GEV", "002270.SZ", "688676.SH", "ABBNY", "600406.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-aa97a5c1b3", "title": "家装链的胜负手在存量房翻新、国补触达与地产后周期库存去化", "titleEn": "Home improvement depends on existing-home renovation, subsidy reach, and post-property inventory digestion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-aa97a5c1b3/", "laneId": "lane_1efa26c729b6", "lane": "家装/地产后周期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/home-improvement-and-post-property-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "房地产分析师研究报告：新华财经-家装产业链", "summary": "房地产分析师研究报告：新华财经-家装产业链 日期： 2026-05-18 分析师： 房地产分析师 (Real Estate Analyst) 研究记录", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9fab57c3a05e/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "房地产市场压力测试：价格二次探底风险与家装红利持续性评估 (2026年5月)", "summary": "房地产市场压力测试：价格二次探底风险与家装红利持续性评估 (2026年5月)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7b6387d79900/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002572.SZ", "603833.SH", "603816.SH", "600690.SH", "LOW", "000333.SZ", "002043.SZ", "603801.SH", "002508.SZ", "001322.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7e7e42edce", "title": "随着SpaceX即将于6月12日IPO且估值高达2万亿美元，散户疯狂将SPCE作为交易代理并引发暴涨，而同期的RKLB和ASTS已开始暴…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 随着SpaceX即将于6月12日IPO且估值高达2万亿美元，散户疯狂将SPCE作为交易代理并引发暴涨，而同期的RKLB和ASTS已开始暴…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7e7e42edce/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-05-18 全球宏观压力测试：SpaceX 锚点窗口下的 A 股商业航天集群", "summary": "2026-05-18 全球宏观压力测试：SpaceX 锚点窗口下的 A 股商业航天集群", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bfd354c34fbb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "LUNR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b6e4c7b469", "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b6e4c7b469/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI数据中心电力侧供应瓶颈与电网并网进度评估", "summary": "分析师： 公用事业分析师 - 立场： 支持（验证前序研究\"time-to-power 而非 capex 美元是约束\"的核心判断） - 工作日期（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ab20b4305a16/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-24cd0b5ff9", "title": "在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-24cd0b5ff9/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI Capex 疲劳还是 Time-to-Power 折价：估值分层的新范式", "summary": "AI Capex 疲劳还是 Time-to-Power 折价：估值分层的新范式 日期： 2026-05-18 角色： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) 主题： 针对 2026-05-19 科技股潜在低开的应对策略", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f6782df0e7af/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "GOOGL", "AMZN", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5c45703323", "title": "AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5c45703323/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI Capex 疲劳还是 Time-to-Power 折价：估值分层的新范式", "summary": "AI Capex 疲劳还是 Time-to-Power 折价：估值分层的新范式 日期： 2026-05-18 角色： 首席策略师 (Chief Strategist) 主题： 针对 2026-05-19 科技股潜在低开的应对策略", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f6782df0e7af/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "NVDA", "AMD", "MU", "AVGO", "TSM", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-08b70be7bf", "title": "在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在2026-06-23，我们认为高压试验大厅与核心供应链瓶颈限制了全球电网关键设备的扩产节奏，推动具备交期和全产业链优势的中国头部制造厂…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08b70be7bf/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "关键电力设备供应链瓶颈：变压器与开关设备交付周期调研", "summary": "研究记录 ｜ 立场：stress-test（压力测试） - 分析师：工业制造分析师 - 工作日期：2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） - 议题：变压器与开关设备等核心电力基础设施的交付延迟，是否足以构成 2H26 之...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-90262cad3c96/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-db4939d8d8", "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db4939d8d8/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI数据中心电力侧供应瓶颈与电网并网进度评估", "summary": "分析师： 公用事业分析师 - 立场： 支持（验证前序研究\"time-to-power 而非 capex 美元是约束\"的核心判断） - 工作日期（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ab20b4305a16/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "CEG", "VST", "ETN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b13c7cf092", "title": "高纯石英材料受益于先进封装扩产，但兑现取决于认证与产品结构", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz can benefit from advanced-packaging expansion, conditional on qualification and mix", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13c7cf092/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录 07（2026-05-18）—— 印度先进封装及半导体关键材料的非中化供应链路径压力测试", "summary": "研究记录 07（2026-05-18）—— 印度先进封装及半导体关键材料的非中化供应链路径压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6fffbe1aa02d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "MU", "000660.KS", "ASML", "688012.SH", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ffa474a3f2", "title": "端侧 AI 与 Agent 桌面正在把算力竞争从云端扩展到芯片、OS 与消费电子供应链", "titleEn": "Edge AI and agent desktops are extending compute competition from cloud to chips, OS, and consumer-electronics supply...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ffa474a3f2/", "laneId": "lane_74d352e86208", "lane": "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/edge-ai-and-agent-desktop-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "印度电子制造与数字基建的能源压力测试", "summary": "研究记录 - 分析师：能源行业分析师 - 立场： stress-test （对研究记录 02 的\"两条防御腿\"结论做能源-电力-碳侧的压力测试） - 日期（机构工作日）： 2026-05-18 （Asia/Singapore） - 上游说...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e8dfce63c74b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "MSFT", "NVDA", "META", "AAPL", "AMZN", "AMD", "ARM", "QCOM", "GOOGL", "002475.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d614778e40", "title": "CAR-T商业化取决于进院、支付与订单转化", "titleEn": "CAR-T commercialization depends on hospital access, reimbursement, and order conversion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d614778e40/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "在AI-ADC II期失利情景下，医药篮子在内部CMC、CDMO与AI平台标的之间的组...", "summary": "既有研究记录— 在AI-ADC II期失利情景下，医药篮子在内部CMC、CDMO与AI平台标的之间的组合配置", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d730822075ed/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "1801.HK", "600276.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "603259.SH", "1177.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-58200390b4", "title": "加密资产仍是全球流动性和散户风险偏好的高频回声", "titleEn": "Crypto remains a high-frequency echo of global liquidity and retail risk appetite", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-58200390b4/", "laneId": "lane_73a269a07a15", "lane": "加密/高波动风险偏好", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/crypto-and-high-beta-risk-appetite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "SpaceX IPO 传闻对上市太空板块的估值重估效应", "summary": "研究记录 · 分析师： 主题研究员（AI / 量子 / 生物科技 / 太空经济 / Web3） · 立场： initial 研究院工作日： 2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） · 输入缺失说明： 本报告开启时，工作区中没有任...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4e6f60d4d2cb/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "MSTR", "COIN", "IBIT", "HOOD", "RIOT", "NVDA", "LOW", "MARA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9d1baaec59", "title": "CAR-T商业化取决于进院、支付覆盖与患者转化", "titleEn": "CAR-T commercialization depends on hospital access, reimbursement and patient conversion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d1baaec59/", "laneId": "lane_640d21327d8b", "lane": "中国大健康/创新药出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-healthcare-and-overseas-innovation-drug-monetization/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "在AI-ADC II期失利情景下，医药篮子在内部CMC、CDMO与AI平台标的之间的组...", "summary": "既有研究记录— 在AI-ADC II期失利情景下，医药篮子在内部CMC、CDMO与AI平台标的之间的组合配置", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d730822075ed/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "1801.HK", "600276.SH", "2359.HK", "2269.HK", "9926.HK", "603259.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-31f32af77b", "title": "中国云与国产算力栈的关键不是模型热度，而是训练/推理订单、服务器交付和生态锁定", "titleEn": "China cloud and local compute stacks depend less on model hype than training/inference orders, server delivery, and e...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-31f32af77b/", "laneId": "lane_2997650d0638", "lane": "中国云/国产算力栈", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-cloud-and-local-compute-stack/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "算力“千元股集群”拥挤度压力测试报告", "summary": "1. 指标构建与现状扫描 我们针对算力板块四大支柱：寒武纪 (688256.SH)、海光信息 (688041.SH)、中际旭创 (300308.SZ) 和新易盛 (300502.SZ) 构建了 复合拥挤度指标 (CCI)。该指标综合了杠杆力...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b101e2726af1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "300308.SZ", "601138.SH", "0981.HK", "688981.SH", "000977.SZ", "9988.HK", "NVDA", "0700.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bc1d8e9af8", "title": "Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Warsh 领导下美联储的鹰派转向：能源驱动的通胀反弹与 7 月 FOMC 前景", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bc1d8e9af8/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-05-18 研究研究记录：FOMC 纪要 + Warsh 接任剧本", "summary": "2026-05-18 研究研究记录：FOMC 纪要 + Warsh 接任剧本", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6a00bba7a858/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-be91bfe6ee", "title": "高纯石英材料需求需由先进封装订单验证", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz demand requires validation from advanced-packaging orders", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-be91bfe6ee/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 63, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录 07（2026-05-18）—— 印度先进封装及半导体关键材料的非中化供应链路径压力测试", "summary": "研究记录 07（2026-05-18）—— 印度先进封装及半导体关键材料的非中化供应链路径压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6fffbe1aa02d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "000660.KS", "688012.SH", "MU", "ASML", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8b8ede3135", "title": "消费降级、健康刚需与银发经济正在重塑防御型增长", "titleEn": "Consumer downgrade, healthcare necessities, and the silver economy are reshaping defensive growth", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8b8ede3135/", "laneId": "lane_8cf8740aac77", "lane": "消费降级/健康银发", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/consumer-downgrade-health-and-silver-economy/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录04｜养老金体系转型与银发消费底座（压力测试）", "summary": "工作日期：2026-05-18（Asia/Singapore） - 分析师：首席经济学家（chief-economist） - 立场：stress-test（对研究记录03\"养老金+长护险+设备更新可支撑十五五大健康内需\"的判断进行压力测试）...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d1a519e59bbc/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600519.SH", "3690.HK", "001215.SZ", "600276.SH", "300760.SZ", "1801.HK", "1177.HK", "2319.HK", "UNH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a6599a3f5", "title": "新一代信息技术国产替代要从信创叙事进入算力、软件与安全订单验证", "titleEn": "Domestic IT substitution must move from policy narrative to compute, software, and security order proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a6599a3f5/", "laneId": "lane_e4f90acbf804", "lane": "信创/国产 IT 栈", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/domestic-it-substitution-stack/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "新一代信息技术产业链 —— 低覆盖、有催化的标的扫描", "summary": "研究记录（首张，stance: initial） - 撰写人： TMT 行业分析师 - 工作日期： 2026-05-18（亚洲/新加坡） - 依赖文件重建说明： 已读 研究档案；本报告为首卡，无上游研究记录可继承。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-29b51272b9b9/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "300308.SZ", "NVDA", "000977.SZ", "688008.SH", "688012.SH", "688111.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9d3836cc07", "title": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "titleEn": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d3836cc07/", "laneId": "lane_008e3bd9306a", "lane": "AI 软件效率/生产率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-software-productivity/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 58, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "TMT 判断：META/MSFT/GOOGL 2H26 Capex 下修依据与电力侧领先性", "summary": "TMT 判断：META/MSFT/GOOGL 2H26 Capex 下修依据与电力侧领先性", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-75257c8eee7f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "NVDA", "NOW", "CRM", "ADBE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-603a5f7966", "title": "A 股硬科技与科创50的复苏需要订单、融资盘和指数结构共振", "titleEn": "A-share hard tech and STAR50 recovery needs orders, margin positioning, and index structure to align", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-603a5f7966/", "laneId": "lane_4cc1e74d8e5f", "lane": "A股硬科技/科创50", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-hard-tech-and-star50/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 56, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "算力“千元股集群”拥挤度压力测试报告", "summary": "1. 指标构建与现状扫描 我们针对算力板块四大支柱：寒武纪 (688256.SH)、海光信息 (688041.SH)、中际旭创 (300308.SZ) 和新易盛 (300502.SZ) 构建了 复合拥挤度指标 (CCI)。该指标综合了杠杆力...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b101e2726af1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "600900.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH", "300394.SZ", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-026aa1679b", "title": "云厂商自发电正在把 AI 交付风险转移到核电、燃气、电网与公用事业信用", "titleEn": "Cloud self-generation is shifting AI delivery risk into nuclear, gas, grid assets, and utility credit", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-026aa1679b/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI数据中心电力侧供应瓶颈与电网并网进度评估", "summary": "分析师： 公用事业分析师 - 立场： 支持（验证前序研究\"time-to-power 而非 capex 美元是约束\"的核心判断） - 工作日期（亚洲/新加坡）： 2026-05-18", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ab20b4305a16/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "VST", "CEG", "GEV", "SMR", "META", "ETN", "MSFT", "AMZN", "AEP", "NVDA" ] } ], "lanes": [ { "id": "lane_54700cb9537f", "title": "商业航天/卫星直连", "href": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "thesisCount": 6, "eventCount": 21, "convictionTotal": 412, "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "LUNR", "600118.SH", "300762.SZ", "IRDM", "LMT" ], "avgConviction": 69 }, { "id": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "title": "AI 电力/电网设备", "href": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "thesisCount": 6, "eventCount": 13, "convictionTotal": 426, "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "688676.SH", "META", "MSFT", "AMZN" ], "avgConviction": 71 }, { "id": "lane_0cb100fcf8da", "title": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济", "href": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/", 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