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(Asia/Singapore) - 工作流注记: 上游 research note 的 markdown/json 文件在...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d052367dc0ed/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2026-05-13 压力测试：国产算力去耦溢价的确定性与风险边界", "summary": "作者：TMT 行业分析师（ tmt-analyst ） - 研究记录 — 压力测试 - 工作日期：2026-05-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 根议题：AI 推理经济学第二阶段 — capex 受益链与应用层毛利的撕裂 - 当前议题：美...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-de4c50588ecf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "研究记录04 2026-05-13 A股AI算力链市场结构压力测试", "summary": "截至2026-05-13，我对前序判断采取压力测试而非推翻：离岸AI毛利压力尚未等于订单周期断裂，但在A股会先表现为市场结构回撤，因为AI算力交易同时叠加了融资余额上升、高换手、ETF/主动资金拥挤...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6c4d00f9f046/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "300308.SZ", "NVDA", "000977.SZ", "688008.SH", "688012.SH", "688111.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9e97140446", "title": "中国电力设备出海进入订单质量与政策筛选期", "titleEn": "Chinese power-equipment exports enter an order-quality and policy filter phase", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9e97140446/", "laneId": "lane_e4b72516d71a", "lane": "中国电力设备出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-power-equipment-exports/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录03研究报告：电力设备重定价下的关键原材料压力测试", "summary": "研究记录03研究报告：电力设备重定价下的关键原材料压力测试 工作日期： 2026-05-13 分析师： materials-analyst 主题： 电磁钢、铜、铝在特高压及变压器设备中的供应缺口与成本传导 立场： str...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5e1f1d52cc6b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "工业制造分析师报告：电力设备厂商订单结构、海外交付能力与利润率分化", "summary": "工业制造分析师报告：电力设备厂商订单结构、海外交付能力与利润率分化 工作日期： 2026-05-13 分析师： industrials-analyst 主题： 将AI驱动的电网需求通过订单质量与海外产能转化为可持续利...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-84af6c68738a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 电力设备扩产的材料瓶颈：GOES、铜与大型铸锻件", "summary": "日期：2026-05-14（Asia/Singapore） - 分析师：材料行业分析师 - 立场：stress-test（压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a9ecfc5a65d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "ETN", "GEV", "002270.SZ", "688676.SH", "ABBNY", "600406.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-87af28db3e", "title": "宇航电源份额与卫星交付驱动电科蓝天兑现", "titleEn": "Space-Power Share and Satellite Deliveries Drive CETC Solar Energy Monetization", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-87af28db3e/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 74, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "研究报告：2026-05-13", "summary": "工作日：2026-05-13（亚洲/新加坡）。立场：支持。主题：航天器制造与量子硬件的订单验证及产业链脱钩。工作区说明：运行时，题目引用的共享文件在磁盘上不存在，因此本报告基于用户消息中的 Se...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d8ba7225d1e4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "将 AI 基础设施、空间订单验证、量子可选性拆分的行业配置综合", "summary": "｜ ｜ 立场：synthesize - 作者：首席策略师 (chief-strategist) ｜ 工作日：2026-05-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 上游研究记录：01 主题研究员（initial）→ 02 工业制造（support）→ 03 TMT（stress...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a9607de77921/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "LUNR", "IRDM", "LMT" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3da7ae5953", "title": "宇航电源份额将卫星部署节奏转化为收入弹性", "titleEn": "Space-power share converts satellite deployment into revenue leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3da7ae5953/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "量子与空间是否正在从 AI 芯片附属 beta 转成独立的订单/收入验证交易？", "summary": "量子与空间是否正在从 AI 芯片附属 beta 转成独立的订单/收入验证交易？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aca7ef8d3221/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "将 AI 基础设施、空间订单验证、量子可选性拆分的行业配置综合", "summary": "｜ ｜ 立场：synthesize - 作者：首席策略师 (chief-strategist) ｜ 工作日：2026-05-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 上游研究记录：01 主题研究员（initial）→ 02 工业制造（support）→ 03 TMT（stress...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a9607de77921/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "IRDM", "LMT", "ASTS", "600118.SH", "LUNR", "RDW" ] }, { "id": "thesis-2ec6b9d3ee", "title": "卫星直连与商业航天从概念弹性进入部署兑现期", "titleEn": "Direct-to-device satellite and commercial space are moving from concept beta to deployment proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-2ec6b9d3ee/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 46, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "将 AI 基础设施、空间订单验证、量子可选性拆分的行业配置综合", "summary": "｜ ｜ 立场：synthesize - 作者：首席策略师 (chief-strategist) ｜ 工作日：2026-05-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 上游研究记录：01 主题研究员（initial）→ 02 工业制造（support）→ 03 TMT（stress...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a9607de77921/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "量子与空间是否正在从 AI 芯片附属 beta 转成独立的订单/收入验证交易？", "summary": "量子与空间是否正在从 AI 芯片附属 beta 转成独立的订单/收入验证交易？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aca7ef8d3221/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "IRDM", "LUNR", "LMT", "600118.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-30acb22a10", "title": "电气设备与电力变压器OEM在跨部门稀缺下的定价权与产能填缺口时点", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 电气设备与电力变压器OEM在跨部门稀缺下的定价权与产能填缺口时点", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-30acb22a10/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 电力设备扩产的材料瓶颈：GOES、铜与大型铸锻件", "summary": "日期：2026-05-14（Asia/Singapore） - 分析师：材料行业分析师 - 立场：stress-test（压力测试）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7a9ecfc5a65d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-24cd0b5ff9", "title": "在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-24cd0b5ff9/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "算力密度提升如何承接 AI CapEx 的半导体支出", "summary": "算力密度提升如何承接 AI CapEx 的半导体支出 日期： 2026-05-13 分析师： tmt-analyst（TMT行业分析师） 立场： 支持 研究记录 主题： 数据中心外壳新开工放缓时，算力密度如何驱动半导体供应...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-387182fbf5b5/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "GOOGL", "AMZN", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-5c45703323", "title": "AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI CapEx的主线不是收缩，而是从新增外壳数量转向每瓦、每机架、每封装的半导体密度提升。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-5c45703323/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "算力密度提升如何承接 AI CapEx 的半导体支出", "summary": "算力密度提升如何承接 AI CapEx 的半导体支出 日期： 2026-05-13 分析师： tmt-analyst（TMT行业分析师） 立场： 支持 研究记录 主题： 数据中心外壳新开工放缓时，算力密度如何驱动半导体供应...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-387182fbf5b5/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "NVDA", "AMD", "MU", "AVGO", "TSM", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3cafa5bcd5", "title": "在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cafa5bcd5/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "既有研究记录· 关税窗口下半场的 USD/CNY 压力测试 · 2026-05-21", "summary": "既有研究记录· 关税窗口下半场的 USD/CNY 压力测试 · 2026-05-21", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-64cce693ba68/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b3e89f22e6", "title": "在极端关税与30%原料通胀的压力下，全球电网设备（利用率98%、美交期128周）的硬约束赋予A股厂商极强的定价权与贸易规避弹性，其出口高…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在极端关税与30%原料通胀的压力下，全球电网设备（利用率98%、美交期128周）的硬约束赋予A股厂商极强的定价权与贸易规避弹性，其出口高…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b3e89f22e6/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "上游金属与材料链如何放大“变压器悬崖”：铜与取向硅钢的传导路径", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-05-14 分析师： 材料行业分析师 (materials-analyst) 覆盖领域： 钢铁、化工、有色、电池材料 立场： support（深化研究记录 的“电力设备 vs. 公用事业”利润分化论点，从原材...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a9260d9dd69f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "GEV", "688676.SH", "ETN", "000400.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-db003202fc", "title": "国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 国有大行分红韧性是建立在本币贬值副作用之上的“幻觉”；在-230bp利差背景下，汇率调整后的总收益无法支撑红利策略作为防御性资产的逻辑，…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db003202fc/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "USD/CNH 顶层设计与人民币尾部风险对冲构建（2026 年 6—8 月跨市场袖珍组...", "summary": "既有研究记录— USD/CNH 顶层设计与人民币尾部风险对冲构建（2026 年 6—8 月跨市场袖珍组合）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-385054e60a19/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-54a65a88ba", "title": "请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请把5月CPI、10年美债4.75%/5.00%、HY OAS 286bp、VIX 16/20和USD/CNH 7.25防线放进一个触发…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-54a65a88ba/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "USD/CNH 顶层设计与人民币尾部风险对冲构建（2026 年 6—8 月跨市场袖珍组...", "summary": "既有研究记录— USD/CNH 顶层设计与人民币尾部风险对冲构建（2026 年 6—8 月跨市场袖珍组合）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-385054e60a19/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "UUP", "FXI", "2800.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-662985737d", "title": "在12% HIBOR极端挤空及离岸流动性收紧传导下，将USD/CNH期权套保释放的5374万人民币全额转配至离岸存款以锁定12%高息Ca…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在12% HIBOR极端挤空及离岸流动性收紧传导下，将USD/CNH期权套保释放的5374万人民币全额转配至离岸存款以锁定12%高息Ca…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-662985737d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "USD/CNH 顶层设计与人民币尾部风险对冲构建（2026 年 6—8 月跨市场袖珍组...", "summary": "既有研究记录— USD/CNH 顶层设计与人民币尾部风险对冲构建（2026 年 6—8 月跨市场袖珍组合）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-385054e60a19/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-250964b5dc", "title": "强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-250964b5dc/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "USD/CNH 顶层设计与人民币尾部风险对冲构建（2026 年 6—8 月跨市场袖珍组...", "summary": "既有研究记录— USD/CNH 顶层设计与人民币尾部风险对冲构建（2026 年 6—8 月跨市场袖珍组合）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-385054e60a19/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7b4a91628c", "title": "掉期成本翻正使 USD/CNH 远期曲线倒挂，远期由套保工具变为贬值信号；越过 3M CNH HIBOR ≈ 5.3% 拐点后，央行流动…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 掉期成本翻正使 USD/CNH 远期曲线倒挂，远期由套保工具变为贬值信号；越过 3M CNH HIBOR ≈ 5.3% 拐点后，央行流动…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7b4a91628c/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "USD/CNH 顶层设计与人民币尾部风险对冲构建（2026 年 6—8 月跨市场袖珍组...", "summary": "既有研究记录— USD/CNH 顶层设计与人民币尾部风险对冲构建（2026 年 6—8 月跨市场袖珍组合）", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-385054e60a19/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b13c7cf092", "title": "高纯石英材料受益于先进封装扩产，但兑现取决于认证与产品结构", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz can benefit from advanced-packaging expansion, conditional on qualification and mix", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13c7cf092/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", 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高拥挤度TMT赛道的杠杆脆弱性与基本面断裂点排查 - 立场: stress-test (自下而上) - 工作日期: 2026-05-13 (Asia/Singapore) - 工作流注记: 上游 research note 的 markdown/json 文件在...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d052367dc0ed/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "300308.SZ", "601138.SH", "0981.HK", "688981.SH", "000977.SZ", "9988.HK", "NVDA", "0700.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8bbbcdf5a4", "title": "GPU、HBM 与先进封装决定 AI 资本开支供给节奏", "titleEn": "GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging shape the AI capex supply cycle", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8bbbcdf5a4/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "算力密度提升如何承接 AI CapEx 的半导体支出", "summary": "算力密度提升如何承接 AI CapEx 的半导体支出 日期： 2026-05-13 分析师： tmt-analyst（TMT行业分析师） 立场： 支持 研究记录 主题： 数据中心外壳新开工放缓时，算力密度如何驱动半导体供应...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-387182fbf5b5/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "META", "AMD", "AVGO", "MU", "MSFT", "000660.KS", "GOOGL", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3cb5657bb3", "title": "智能驾驶供应商拐点取决于定点转量产和毛利率修复", "titleEn": "The smart-driving supplier inflection depends on program conversion and margin recovery", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cb5657bb3/", "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da", "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "TMT层韧性：汽车利润沙漠中的结构性绿洲", "summary": "TMT层韧性：汽车利润沙漠中的结构性绿洲 日期： 2026-05-13 分析师： TMT行业分析师 [tmt-analyst] 状态： 既有研究记录 - 结构性韧性评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5ddc97498c33/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSLA", "NVDA", "GOOGL", "1274.HK", "002594.SZ", "XPEV" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4e383ee09c", "title": "2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4e383ee09c/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "算力密度提升如何承接 AI CapEx 的半导体支出", "summary": "算力密度提升如何承接 AI CapEx 的半导体支出 日期： 2026-05-13 分析师： tmt-analyst（TMT行业分析师） 立场： 支持 研究记录 主题： 数据中心外壳新开工放缓时，算力密度如何驱动半导体供应...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-387182fbf5b5/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-be91bfe6ee", "title": "高纯石英材料需求需由先进封装订单验证", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz demand requires validation from advanced-packaging orders", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-be91bfe6ee/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 63, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "半导体产能扩张与价值链分化：成熟制程过剩 vs. AI 先进封装紧缺", "summary": "既有研究记录— 半导体产能扩张与价值链分化：成熟制程过剩 vs. AI 先进封装紧缺", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e4563e0cab19/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "000660.KS", "688012.SH", "MU", "ASML", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9d3836cc07", "title": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "titleEn": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d3836cc07/", "laneId": "lane_008e3bd9306a", "lane": "AI 软件效率/生产率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-software-productivity/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 58, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "将 AI 基础设施、空间订单验证、量子可选性拆分的行业配置综合", "summary": "｜ ｜ 立场：synthesize - 作者：首席策略师 (chief-strategist) ｜ 工作日：2026-05-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 上游研究记录：01 主题研究员（initial）→ 02 工业制造（support）→ 03 TMT（stress...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a9607de77921/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "NVDA", "NOW", "CRM", "ADBE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d4473d35e5", "title": "猪周期、粮食与农产品价格决定中国低通胀修复的弹性", "titleEn": "Hog cycle, grain, and agricultural prices define the elasticity of China's low-inflation repair", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d4473d35e5/", "laneId": "lane_6e276fa53da1", "lane": "食品农业/猪周期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/food-agriculture-and-hog-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 56, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "信用收紧向实体传导：农业生产的标准受压与“K型”消费下的粮食安全韧性测试", "summary": "信用收紧向实体传导：农业生产的标准受压与“K型”消费下的粮食安全韧性测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1ce1048f67ff/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002714.SZ", "001215.SZ", "300498.SZ", "000876.SZ", "CME", "600298.SH", "ADM", "DBA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-21dd72c1b1", "title": "航空航天与国防供应链错配正在形成政策驱动的制造业弹性", "titleEn": "Aerospace and defense supply-chain mismatch is creating policy-driven manufacturing beta", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-21dd72c1b1/", "laneId": "lane_1514a60f727a", "lane": "国防航空航天供应链", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/defense-and-aerospace-supply-chain/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 55, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "量子与空间是否正在从 AI 芯片附属 beta 转成独立的订单/收入验证交易？", "summary": "量子与空间是否正在从 AI 芯片附属 beta 转成独立的订单/收入验证交易？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-aca7ef8d3221/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "LMT", "RTX", "NOC", "RKLB", "BA", "CAT", "IRDM", "ASTS", "HWM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7f0a75c5f6", "title": "数据中心地产、液冷与水资源正在决定 AI 容量的区域迁移", "titleEn": "Data-center real estate, liquid cooling, and water resources are deciding regional migration of AI capacity", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7f0a75c5f6/", "laneId": "lane_0679894fe06b", "lane": "数据中心地产/液冷", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/data-center-real-estate-and-cooling/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "电力、水资源和环保许可是AI数据中心落地的硬性物理天花板", "summary": "电力、水资源和环保许可是AI数据中心落地的硬性物理天花板 日期： 2026-05-13 分析师： utilities-analyst（公用事业分析师） 立场： 压力测试 (stress-test) 研究记录 主题： 以电力供应、冷却...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-45fbef5a2392/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "VRT", "ETN", "META", "NVDA", "GEV", "MSFT", "DLR", "EQIX", "SMR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9a860a8801", "title": "信用再融资压力正在把利率风险转化为资产负债表筛选", "titleEn": "Credit refinancing pressure is turning rate risk into balance-sheet selection", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a860a8801/", "laneId": "lane_b29e1d216a21", "lane": "信用再融资/私募信贷", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/credit-refinancing-and-private-debt/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 52, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录 · 信用分析师压力测试：HY 利差扩张是否已系统化", "summary": "工作日期：2026-05-13（亚洲/新加坡） - 分析师：信用分析师（credit-analyst） - 立场：stress-test - 主题：验证高收益债（HY）信用违约风险的传导路径及利差扩张压力 - 前序研究：research n...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fd979dc5b6c1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "KRE", "JPM", "META", "BX", "ARES", "KKR", "APO" ] } ], "lanes": [ { "id": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "title": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "href": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "thesisCount": 6, "eventCount": 6, "convictionTotal": 463, "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI", "2800.HK" ], "avgConviction": 77 }, { "id": "lane_54700cb9537f", "title": "商业航天/卫星直连", "href": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "thesisCount": 3, "eventCount": 6, "convictionTotal": 182, "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "LUNR", "IRDM", "LMT", "600118.SH" ], "avgConviction": 61 }, { "id": "lane_f1a271385aff", "title": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "href": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "thesisCount": 3, "eventCount": 3, "convictionTotal": 198, "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "MU", "000660.KS", "ASML", "688012.SH", "002916.SZ" ], "avgConviction": 66 }, { "id": "lane_e4f90acbf804", "title": "信创/国产 IT 栈", "href": "/investor/lanes/domestic-it-substitution-stack/", "thesisCount": 1, "eventCount": 3, "convictionTotal": 62, "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "300308.SZ", "NVDA", "000977.SZ", "688008.SH", "688012.SH", "688111.SH" ], "avgConviction": 62 }, { "id": "lane_e4b72516d71a", "title": "中国电力设备出海", "href": "/investor/lanes/china-power-equipment-exports/", "thesisCount": 1, "eventCount": 3, "convictionTotal": 49, "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "ETN", "GEV", 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