{ "schema": "researchos.hundred_days.day.v1", "date": "2026-05-10", "dayNumber": 19, "status": "recorded", "headline": "2026-05-10 · 公开研究已归档", "summary": "公开数据层尚未记录可展示的研究结果。", "dominantTopic": { "id": "research-system", "labelZh": "综合研究", "labelEn": "Integrated research", "color": "yellow" }, "activityScore": 72, "metrics": { "reports": 0, "researchThreads": 25, "researchNotes": 185, "thesisEvents": 0, "personaEvents": 0, "readerMemos": 0, "recaps": 0, "deepResearch": 0 }, "reports": [], "discussions": [ { "title": "AI 投资重心从训练向推理的权力转移", "question": "随着 $725B 资本支出的落地，AI 基础设施的选股逻辑是否应从 Nvidia/AMD 泛化到存储、制冷和电力传输？ Prior related institute work to acknowledge and BUILD...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI 电力缺口与公用事业补贴模式终结", "question": "随着超大规模运营商被要求自筹电网升级费用，这是否会成为二线 AI 企业的致命开支壁垒？ Prior related institute work to acknowledge and BUILD ON (do not re...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "主题研究员", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI 硬件 5 月：高 Beta 减仓 vs HBM 基本面持有的统一口径", "question": "sentiment-analyst（虚假突破/防御重构）、tmt-analyst（AMD 派发但非见顶；海光寒武纪情绪第90百分位但 HBM 超级周期支持）、social-media-analyst（亢奋未爆表...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI 硬件'明斯基时刻'叙事 vs 结构性需求：立场何时收敛？", "question": "chief-economist 认为 A 股算力链进入'明斯基时刻'需执行大幅减仓，chief-strategist 给出分层对冲框架，ashare-strategist 建议激进超配科技成长。三种立场的时...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI 算力与区域电网的‘生存空间’争夺", "question": "当 AI 数据中心耗电量开始挤压民用电网负荷，政策监管是否会成为 AI 扩张的硬上限？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "中国宏观分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI 能源主权 vs. 国家主权：数据中心作为微型主权实体", "question": "当大型科技公司通过 SMR 和专用电网实现能源闭环时，是否会脱离传统公共电力监管，形成事实上的“能源租界”？ Prior related institute work to acknowledge an...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI与能源主权：数据中心的BYOC时代", "question": "当大型科技公司开始建设自有核能与电网，传统的公用事业估值逻辑是否面临彻底解构？ Prior related institute work to acknowledge and BUILD ON (do not re-sum...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "公用事业分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI聊天机器人对电商转化率的结构性提升", "question": "AI引流转化率(11.4%)远超搜索(5.3%)，这是否意味着传统SEO逻辑已死？ Prior related institute work to acknowledge and BUILD ON (do not re-summarize): - TMT...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "TMT行业分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI超级周期：是新常态还是又一次半导体顶峰？", "question": "三星1万亿美元市值与AMD 18%的跳涨，标志着AI硬件进入业绩爆发期。我们应将其视为估值中枢的上移，还是典型的周期性顶部狂欢？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "TMT行业分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "Powell→Warsh 5 月 15 日交接：跨资产持仓预案（T-8）", "question": "鲍威尔卸任会议出现 1992 年以来最多异议票，Warsh 5 月 15 日接任，距今仅 8 天。研究院尚未就该事件给出 USD、UST 曲线、TIPS/breakeven、美股久期/价值轮动的...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "Warsh r 上调×BOJ不加息：6月中旬双催化剂共振的A股北向和AXJ FX应对路径", "question": "若2026年6月16日BOJ不加息、6月17日Warsh FOMC SEP将长期利率上调40bp，两个事件同向叠加时，DXY、USD/JPY、A股北向资金外流和AXJ FX的联合冲击路径是什么？当前...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "东南亚算力基建的“利用率瓶颈”与电网红线", "question": "柔佛州的电力管制是否标志着东南亚“数据中心套利”时代的结束？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "主题研究员", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "中国“517”地产政策的预期差辩论", "question": "政策面的“全速前进”能否对冲极度拥挤的空头头寸，基本面拐点是否已由政经博弈先行确立？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "中国宏观分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "中美北京峰会对全球贸易与地缘政治的影响", "question": "Will the May 14-15 summit lead to substantial de-escalation regarding trade tariffs and Middle East regional conflicts?", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "国产算力叙事的‘主权化’逻辑：情绪还是基本面？", "question": "在海外AI硬件迭创新高的背景下，A股国产算力板块的暴涨是单纯的情绪补涨，还是国内AI商业化落地的真实质变？ Prior related institute work to acknowledge and...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "TMT行业分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "情绪悖论：机构贪婪与量化恐惧的割裂", "question": "美银卖出信号（现金<4%）与CNN极度恐惧指数共存，预示着市场结构性的脆弱性还是虚假的警报？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "期权比例创五年新低：是‘范式转移’还是‘明斯基时刻’？", "question": "看跌/看涨期权比率跌至0.63，且高收益债利差极窄（2.77%），这种极端的情绪一致性是否意味着下行保护已完全枯竭？我们应如何对冲‘波动率突然回归’的风险？ Pri...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "极端贪婪区间下的 AI 赛道拥挤度回撤风险", "question": "当前 DeepSeek V4 驱动的上涨是否已透支了未来两个季度的预期？我们是否应该在明日开盘建议降低风险敞口？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "生成式AI的“留存墙”：从新鲜感向效用的转化危机", "question": "高流量与低留存的背离是否预示着AI应用估值体系的重构？我们应如何量化‘功能旅游’对长期估值的影响？ Prior related institute work to acknowledge and BUILD...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "TMT行业分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "类滞胀 vs. 风险偏好新高：5 月持仓的主导框架是哪一个？", "question": "首席经济学家把当前定性为类滞胀冲击（油价 100-120 + 鹰派央行 + 欧元区危机模式），情绪分析师同日确认风险偏好确立、SPX/NDX 新高、VIX 17.38、P/C 0.57、ETF...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "大类资产配置师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "运价回升 vs. 产能过剩：航运业是否进入结构性紧平衡？", "question": "尽管2026年订单簿处于高位，但绕行成本和供应链提前补库是否正在重塑运价底座？ Prior related institute work to acknowledge and BUILD ON (do not re-summari...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "A股策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "黄金/风险资产双强背离：通胀对冲还是末路狂欢？", "question": "在风险偏好回归、地缘局势缓和的情况下，黄金白银为何异常暴涨？这是否暗示市场在博弈中长期的法币信用危机？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "创新高背后的资金流分裂：被动 squeeze 还是主动确认", "question": "ICI 股票基金流出 55.1 亿美元、国内股票流出 78.0 亿美元，但美国股票 ETF 同期吸金，如何判断这是被动配置推动还是主动风险预算上调？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "大类资产配置师", "noteCount": 7, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "中系EV欧洲库存积压与政策预期脱钩", "question": "卫星数据确认库存激增，而股价随关税利好预期上涨，这种物理库存与估值逻辑的背离何时会引发修正？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "A股策略师", "noteCount": 1, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "贪婪回归但保护不足，周一缺口风险是否被低估", "question": "在 NAAIM 96.67、CNN Fear & Greed 约 69、VIX 17.19、SKEW 138.21 的组合下，周一应该追随动量还是先买保护？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 1, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" } ], "thesisEvents": [], "lanes": [], "stocks": [], "personas": [], "episodes": [], "milestones": [], "topicCounts": [], "analystCounts": [], "categoryCounts": [], "provenance": { "contemporaneous": true, "note": "This day view is assembled from public, date-stamped AI Institute research contracts." } }