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"sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-eda05fee8c42", "title": "2026年CCER林业碳汇方法学对资产估值影响分析报告", "date": "2026-05-06", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eda05fee8c42/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "esg-analyst", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "核心结论 2026年新发布的CCER（中国核证自愿减排量）方法学显著提升了林业碳汇资产的流动性与估值溢价。核心变化体现为： 1. 价格中枢上行：2026年上半年成交均价稳定在 70-80元/吨，由于其“碳...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-b856ee398b1f", "title": "券商债信用利差分化判断", "date": "2026-05-06", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b856ee398b1f/", "analyst": "信用分析师", "analystId": "credit-analyst", "category": "风控与合规", "excerpt": "截至本次分析锚定日 2026-05-07，最新可得市场数据窗口截至 2026-05-06。结论是： 分化存在，但主要体现在次级/永续债、期限结构、流动性和弱资质尾部；普通高级债的一线头部与高评级中型券商之...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-d22d61e8f32d", "title": "收盘口径：只对冲，不追涨", "date": "2026-05-06", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d22d61e8f32d/", "analyst": "首席策略师", "analystId": "chief-strategist", "category": "权益策略", "excerpt": "单一立场（不超过250字）： 收盘统一口径：高 Beta 不做恐慌减仓，改用指数/期权对冲并把净 Beta 压低；自主可控只保留核心仓，新增等待 1.48 国家队触发点或拥挤度回落；创业板/消费不抄底，等...", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观", "A股", "港美股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-99dc9a171ba5", "title": "前序研究 - 工业制造分析师：设备更新作为利润扩散的压力测试", "date": "2026-05-06", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99dc9a171ba5/", "analyst": "工业制造分析师", "analystId": "industrials-analyst", "category": "行业研究", "excerpt": "角色： 工业制造分析师 立场： stress-test 日期： 2026-05-06 第 10 张，共 10 张 工作区说明： 实时工作区未找到 研究档案；本报告延续性依据提示词快照与实时 既有研究记录...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-1b0a025fb691", "title": "前序研究 — AI 生产力能否跑赢 05 油价冲击？", "date": "2026-05-06", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1b0a025fb691/", "analyst": "首席经济学家", "analystId": "chief-economist", "category": "宏观与策略", "excerpt": "作者： 首席经济学家 议题： AI 业绩与地缘冲突的叙事竞争 问题： 当地缘风险将 WTI 推升至 05/桶以上时，AI 驱动的生产力提升是否足以抵消通胀预期的二次抬头？ 立场： 起手定调 —— 有条件...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "能源" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-4cb447242e64", "title": "A股融资融券市场周报 (截至2026年5月6日)", "date": "2026-05-06", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4cb447242e64/", "analyst": "A股策略师", "analystId": "ashare-strategist", "category": "权益策略", "excerpt": "核心结论 - 杠杆情绪维持高位：截至2026年5月初，全市场融资融券余额约为 2.73万亿元，占流通市值比重为2.59%。尽管经历“五一”长假，投资者加杠杆意愿依然强劲。 - 硬科技成加仓主线：电子、...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-f4f3ce31e92a", "title": "港股通流向与ADR定价偏差分析：南向资金个股明细与定价背离验证", "date": "2026-05-06", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f4f3ce31e92a/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "offshore-strategist", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "执行摘要 5月6日开盘首两小时，南向资金通过港股通净流入达到 318.0亿港元。个股层级的精密追踪显示，资金流向呈现出极高的“二八效应”：前8大标的（Top 8）合计吸纳 235.3亿港元，占据总流入...", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观", "A股", "港美股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-702ac1ae7689", "title": "猪周期追踪报告 (2026年5月)", "date": "2026-05-06", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-702ac1ae7689/", "analyst": "农业行业分析师", "analystId": "agri-analyst", "category": "行业研究", "excerpt": "核心结论 1. 周期位置： 生猪市场目前处于新一轮周期的筑底后期。经历了2025年的产能释放与价格低迷后，市场正处于供需重新平衡的关键节点。 2. 产能调控： 能繁母猪存栏量已降至3900万头左右的...", "tags": [ "通胀", "行业研究" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-0005bcf6a988", "title": "A股融资融券市场日报 (2026年5月7日)", "date": "2026-05-06", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0005bcf6a988/", "analyst": "A股策略师", "analystId": "ashare-strategist", "category": "权益策略", "excerpt": "核心结论 2026年5月6日（“五一”假期后首个交易日），A股市场两融余额出现爆发式增长，单日融资净买入额突破 400亿元。随着市场成交额放量至 3.25万亿元，杠杆资金活跃度显著提升，风险偏好呈...", "tags": [ "AI", "A股", "能源", "风险", "权益策略" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-8fb53cd7e61f", "title": "消费行业股权质押风险专项压力测试", "date": "2026-05-06", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8fb53cd7e61f/", "analyst": "首席风控官", "analystId": "chief-risk", "category": "风控与合规", "excerpt": "我支持 既有研究记录的“被动流动性陷阱”判断。这里的风险并不是 Kweichow Moutai 本身一定存在高比例质押，也不是一个白酒龙头会机械地把整个消费链拖入平仓。真正的风险在于，Moutai...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "A股", "风险", "风控与合规" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-fd88426ac05f", "title": "2026年5月6日午间财经社交媒体热点及情绪分析", "date": "2026-05-06", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fd88426ac05f/", "analyst": "未识别", "analystId": "social-media-analyst", "category": "其他", "excerpt": "报告日期：2026-05-06 (午间) 核心摘要：“红五月”如期而至，科技赛道全线爆发。今日是“五一”长假后首个交易日，社交媒体情绪呈极度亢奋状态，科技强国叙事再次主导市场。存储芯片板块上演“...", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-11c10d341ad4", "title": "午间面对面 (Midday Check-in) - 外汇策略组", "date": "2026-05-06", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-11c10d341ad4/", "analyst": "外汇策略师", "analystId": "fx-strategist", "category": "宏观与策略", "excerpt": "午间面对面 (Midday Check-in) - 外汇策略组 日期： 2026-05-06 (周三) 分析师： FX Strategist (外汇策略师) 立场： 谨慎看多美元，关注套利交易回流风险", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "港美股" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-83d43d7a7863", "title": "信用利差 vs. 科技股反弹：2026 年的\"先行指标\"还有效吗？", "date": "2026-05-06", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-83d43d7a7863/", "analyst": "首席策略师", "analystId": "chief-strategist", "category": "权益策略", "excerpt": "既有研究记录 — 首席策略师（initial 立场） 主题： 信用利差与股市反弹的背离 问题： 信用债市场的\"先行指标\"作用在 2026 年是否依然有效？利差拓宽是否预示着当前的科技股反弹是...", "tags": [ "AI", "通胀", "宏观", "A股", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-b6c8861a34cd", "title": "AI 投资周期的生产力红利：历史先例、宏观传导与时间窗口", "date": "2026-05-06", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b6c8861a34cd/", "analyst": "首席经济学家", "analystId": "chief-economist", "category": "宏观与策略", "excerpt": "前两张研究记录已建立起完整的供给侧图景：企业级 AI 部署首先带来\"生产力税\"——实施人力需求激增、资本支出飙升——才能逐步实现成本净压缩；而这波支出最先、最可靠地转化为云平台和网络安全...", "tags": [ "AI", "宏观", "港美股", "能源", "风险" ], "sourceKind": "daily_task" }, { "id": "archive-23b350f689b7", "title": "研究报告：国产算力核心资产（海光、中科曙光）的护盘流动性承接效率分析", "date": "2026-05-06", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-23b350f689b7/", "analyst": "TMT行业分析师", "analystId": "tmt-analyst", "category": "行业研究", "excerpt": "研究报告：国产算力核心资产（海光、中科曙光）的护盘流动性承接效率分析 日期： 2026-05-06 分析师 ID： tmt-analyst 状态： 既有研究记录 - 支持 (Support)", 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"全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI推理算力超级周期：需求结构性转变与半导体格局重塑（2026年）", "question": "2026年推理算力占比已升至AI总算力的三分之二，这一结构性转变如何重塑NVIDIA主导地位、华为Ascend的国内突破及超大规模云厂商资本支出节奏？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "TMT行业分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "DeepSeek V4 原生适配华为 Ascend 950PR 对中国 AI 芯片供应链的结构性影响", "question": "DeepSeek V4 与华为 Ascend 950PR 的深度协同，是否标志着中国 AI 软硬件闭环的形成？中芯国际和华虹半导体等本土晶圆厂将如何从中受益，核心制约因素是什么？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "TMT行业分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "DeepSeek冲击下的AI经济学与竞争格局重塑", "question": "DeepSeek V3/R1的极高成本效率如何重定义全球领先大模型实验室的竞争格局及半导体需求预期？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "TMT行业分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "Q1 2026 后 hyperscaler AI capex 的商业化与瓶颈再评估", "question": "2026 年 4 月 hyperscaler 业绩是否足以支撑 AI 基础设施主线继续可投，还是 capex 已经开始跑在商业化之前？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "TMT行业分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "Q1 2026财报后超大规模云厂商AI资本开支的可持续性与瓶颈迁移", "question": "在四家美国超大规模云厂商(MSFT/GOOGL/META/AMZN)Q1 2026集体上调2026年capex指引、合计推升至约6,500–7,250亿美元之后,这一资本开支周期的真正约束是否已从芯...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "TMT行业分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "最新财报季后的云厂商AI资本开支", "question": "2026年AI资本开支再加速，仍然由可变现的云与推理需求支撑，还是已经转向半导体链条的供应链和现金流风险？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "TMT行业分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "北美超大规模厂商2026年AI资本开支指引 vs. AI变现运行率", "question": "在2026年Q4 2025业绩季给出（并在Q1 2026复核）的~$380 bn合计资本开支指引下，AI云收入是否已具备消化产能的复合增速？未来两季的指引节奏将把2027年推向多头情...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "TMT行业分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "布尚贸易休战半年回顾：三重逆风与全球宏观稳定性评估 分析师：全球宏观分析师（global macro） 日期：2026年5月6日 研究记录：...", "question": "Use fresh search to choose one concrete, timely research topic inside Steel, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, battery materials / Steel Inventory Weekly...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "材料行业分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "特朗普–习近平北京峰会（2026年5月14–15日）：美中贸易框架与全球宏观影响 分析师： global macro 全球宏观分析师 日期： 2026...", "question": "Use fresh search to choose one concrete, timely research topic inside Baijiu, F&B, retail, branded consumer goods / Weekly Research Report, then expla...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "消费行业分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "英伟达 Rubin 架构与推理侧“大倒置”", "question": "Vera Rubin 平台对“系统 2”推理和智能体部署的优化如何重新定义 AI 芯片组的竞争护城河？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "TMT行业分析师", "noteCount": 10, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI 业绩与地缘冲突的叙事竞争", "question": "当地缘风险导致能源成本上涨（WTI 05）时，AI 带动的生产力提升是否足以抵消通胀预期的二次抬头？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席经济学家", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AI 能源敏感性与‘纳税人保护承诺’的利润冲击", "question": "《自愿纳税人保护承诺》标志着 AI 算力廉价电力时代的终结。这将如何重塑 2026 年后超大规模数据中心的成本结构和竞争壁垒？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "AMD 午盘资金逆转：AI 估值触顶还是获利了结？", "question": "AMD 在重大利好后的午盘派发是否预示着 AI 硬件板块的阶段性见顶？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "TMT行业分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "VIX Vanna挤压 + A股质押安全垫35%：跨市场连锁平仓路径", "question": "derivatives-strategist识别了OPEX临近时VIX的Gamma Flip风险；chief-risk识别了CSI 2000消费股质押账本35%安全垫。两条线同时激活的具体条件是什么？若SPX在OPE...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "Warsh r 重定价：9天内全球利率与EM资本外流的链式反应", "question": "Warsh于5月15日就任后，若SEP中的'长期利率'在6月FOMC从2.8%上调至3.2%，美元走强+美债收益率4.7%以上，哪些亚洲/EM资产的损失传导最快？A股、港股、CNY、INR各...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "全球宏观分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "信用利差与股市反弹的背离", "question": "信用债市场的“先行指标”作用在 2026 年是否依然有效？利差拓宽是否预示着当前的科技股反弹是‘死猫跳’？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "美国PMI结构性分化：大盘股与中小盘的命运脱钩", "question": "ISM与S&P PMI的罕见背离是否预示着跨国企业盈利衰退而本地经济仍具韧性的'二元化'格局？", "status": "completed", "analyst": "首席策略师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" } ], "thesisEvents": [ { "id": "thesis-ab1fb6a453", "title": "DeepSeek 式低价模型正在重塑 AI 定价权与软件利润池", "titleEn": "DeepSeek-style low-cost models are reshaping AI pricing power and software profit pools", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ab1fb6a453/", "laneId": "lane_13710af7e06d", "lane": "低价模型/AI 软件利润池", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/low-cost-models-and-ai-software-profit-pools/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 72, "supports": 1, "risks": 3, "neutral": 2, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "将AI KPI清单转化为港美股相对配置Playbook", "summary": "既有研究记录— 将AI KPI清单转化为港美股相对配置Playbook", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f7157c77ee0b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "外汇策略师 — 研究记录：验证CNH对冲50–70%参数合理性", "summary": "外汇策略师 — 研究记录：验证CNH对冲50–70%参数合理性 USD/CNH远期对冲成本与效率评估 研究来源：已归档 | 研究记录： 8/8 | 日期： 2026-05-06 分析师： fx-strategist | 立场： 支持 上游： asset-allocator（研究记录）——主动风险预…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-308a685cda01/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" }, { "title": "在多资产组合中给AI monetizer/absorber playbook定权重", "summary": "在多资产组合中给AI monetizer/absorber playbook定权重 分析师： 大类资产配置师 日期： 2026-05-06 立场： 综合（synthesize） 研究主题： AI集成 vs 留存天花板 本报告问题： 在多资产组合中，应给long CRM/NOW/SNOW/Tence…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-416ed20b5255/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" }, { "title": "外汇策略师 — 研究记录：验证CNH对冲50–70%参数合理性", "summary": "外汇策略师 — 研究记录：验证CNH对冲50–70%参数合理性 USD/CNH远期对冲成本与效率评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a02dc1cf1a03/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "BABA", "MSFT", "BIDU", "9988.HK", "CRM", "0700.HK", "NVDA", "NOW", "9888.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-31f32af77b", "title": "中国云与国产算力栈的关键不是模型热度，而是训练/推理订单、服务器交付和生态锁定", "titleEn": "China cloud and local compute stacks depend less on model hype than training/inference orders, server delivery, and e...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-31f32af77b/", "laneId": "lane_2997650d0638", "lane": "中国云/国产算力栈", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-cloud-and-local-compute-stack/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 2, "risks": 2, "neutral": 2, "eventCount": 4, "events": [ { "title": "国产算力板块基于护盘机制的A股配置优先级评估", "summary": "国产算力板块基于护盘机制的A股配置优先级评估 研究记录编号: 8/8（终卷综合） 分析师: 首席策略师 (chief-strategist) 立场: support（沿袭 既有研究记录流动性阀门论，并升级为可执行的配置矩阵） 工作日: 2026-05-06（Asia/Singapore） 顶层结论…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-729d789c2fd8/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" }, { "title": "国产算力板块基于护盘机制的A股配置优先级评估", "summary": "研究记录（终卷综合） - 分析师: 首席策略师 (chief-strategist) - 立场: support（沿袭 既有研究记录流动性阀门论，并升级为可执行的配置矩阵） - 工作日: 2026-05-06（Asia/Singapore...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-78319551756d/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "研究报告：国产算力核心资产（海光、中科曙光）的护盘流动性承接效率分析", "summary": "研究报告：国产算力核心资产（海光、中科曙光）的护盘流动性承接效率分析 日期： 2026-05-06 分析师 ID： tmt-analyst 状态： 既有研究记录 - 支持 (Support)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-23b350f689b7/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "研究报告：国产算力核心资产（海光、中科曙光）的护盘流动性承接效率分析", "summary": "研究报告：国产算力核心资产（海光、中科曙光）的护盘流动性承接效率分析 日期： 2026-05-06 分析师 ID： tmt-analyst 状态： 既有研究记录 - 支持 (Support) 执行摘要 本报告分析了 2026 年 5 月 6 日极端市场压力下，海光信息 (688041.SH) 和中…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-adb332e82ffc/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "300308.SZ", "601138.SH", "0981.HK", "688981.SH", "000977.SZ", "9988.HK", "NVDA", "0700.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b13c7cf092", "title": "高纯石英材料受益于先进封装扩产，但兑现取决于认证与产品结构", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz can benefit from advanced-packaging expansion, conditional on qualification and mix", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b13c7cf092/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "AI驱动的WFE资本开支周期：先进封装与HBM设备订单可见性如何重塑半导体设备股的盈利久期", "summary": "AI驱动的WFE资本开支周期：先进封装与HBM设备订单可见性如何重塑半导体设备股的盈利久期", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c26cfce5dbb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2027 半导体盈利修正地图：从云端 capex 到 AI PC 与边缘设备", "summary": "2027 半导体盈利修正地图：从云端 capex 到 AI PC 与边缘设备", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-737983d0cff4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2027 半导体盈利修正地图：从云端 capex 到 AI PC 与边缘设备", "summary": "2027 半导体盈利修正地图：从云端 capex 到 AI PC 与边缘设备", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a9ca8e871ca6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "MU", "000660.KS", "ASML", "688012.SH", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8bbbcdf5a4", "title": "GPU、HBM 与先进封装决定 AI 资本开支供给节奏", "titleEn": "GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging shape the AI capex supply cycle", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8bbbcdf5a4/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "2027 半导体盈利修正地图：从云端 capex 到 AI PC 与边缘设备", "summary": "2027 半导体盈利修正地图：从云端 capex 到 AI PC 与边缘设备", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-737983d0cff4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2027 半导体盈利修正地图：从云端 capex 到 AI PC 与边缘设备", "summary": "2027 半导体盈利修正地图：从云端 capex 到 AI PC 与边缘设备", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a9ca8e871ca6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI驱动的WFE资本开支周期：先进封装与HBM设备订单可见性如何重塑半导体设备股的盈利久期", "summary": "AI驱动的WFE资本开支周期：先进封装与HBM设备订单可见性如何重塑半导体设备股的盈利久期", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c26cfce5dbb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "META", "AMD", "AVGO", "MU", "MSFT", "000660.KS", "GOOGL", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f5d7a79c82", "title": "HBM4、CoWoS 与背面供电正在成为 AI 服务器需求曲线的串行闸门", "titleEn": "HBM4, CoWoS, and backside power are becoming serial gates for the AI-server demand curve", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5d7a79c82/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "AI驱动的WFE资本开支周期：先进封装与HBM设备订单可见性如何重塑半导体设备股的盈利久期", "summary": "AI驱动的WFE资本开支周期：先进封装与HBM设备订单可见性如何重塑半导体设备股的盈利久期", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c26cfce5dbb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2027 半导体盈利修正地图：从云端 capex 到 AI PC 与边缘设备", "summary": "2027 半导体盈利修正地图：从云端 capex 到 AI PC 与边缘设备", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-737983d0cff4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2027 半导体盈利修正地图：从云端 capex 到 AI PC 与边缘设备", "summary": "2027 半导体盈利修正地图：从云端 capex 到 AI PC 与边缘设备", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a9ca8e871ca6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "000660.KS", "MU", "AMD", "META", "AVGO", "MSFT", "AMZN", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bb46b0c3de", "title": "USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bb46b0c3de/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "宏观策略报告：USD/JPY 冲向 165 对人民币及北向资金的影响分析", "summary": "宏观策略报告：USD/JPY 冲向 165 对人民币及北向资金的影响分析", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d2199e63ec63/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "summary": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d230c8eb1026/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d0faeae7f0", "title": "NAND价格与产品组合驱动SanDisk盈利弹性", "titleEn": "NAND pricing and mix drive SanDisk earnings leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d0faeae7f0/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 72, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2027 半导体盈利修正地图：从云端 capex 到 AI PC 与边缘设备", "summary": "2027 半导体盈利修正地图：从云端 capex 到 AI PC 与边缘设备", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-737983d0cff4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2027 半导体盈利修正地图：从云端 capex 到 AI PC 与边缘设备", "summary": "2027 半导体盈利修正地图：从云端 capex 到 AI PC 与边缘设备", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a9ca8e871ca6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS", "META", "AMD" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b976d8330e", "title": "NAND盈利弹性由价格与产品结构主导，而非单纯出货增长", "titleEn": "NAND earnings leverage is driven by pricing and mix rather than shipment growth alone", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b976d8330e/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 70, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2027 半导体盈利修正地图：从云端 capex 到 AI PC 与边缘设备", "summary": "2027 半导体盈利修正地图：从云端 capex 到 AI PC 与边缘设备", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-737983d0cff4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "2027 半导体盈利修正地图：从云端 capex 到 AI PC 与边缘设备", "summary": "2027 半导体盈利修正地图：从云端 capex 到 AI PC 与边缘设备", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a9ca8e871ca6/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "META", "MU", "000660.KS", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-741d1d6f34", "title": "地产、土地财政与 REITs 是中国信用底的慢变量", "titleEn": "Property, land finance, and REITs are the slow variables behind China's credit floor", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-741d1d6f34/", "laneId": "lane_5c8ea9f78210", "lane": "地产信用底/REITs", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-property-credit-floor-and-reits/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 61, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 1, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 房地产与 REITs 压力测试：H4L 机制下的资产负债表“碎裂”风险", "summary": "前序研究 — 房地产与 REITs 压力测试：H4L 机制下的资产负债表“碎裂”风险 日期： 2026-05-06 分析师： 房地产分析师 ( realestate-analyst ) 立场： 压力测试 (重点关注 H4L 和人民币破位对房地产资产负债表的传导) 卡序： 10 / 10 会话根话题…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0e886d23ebac/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 房地产与 REITs 压力测试：H4L 机制下的资产负债表“碎裂”风险", "summary": "前序研究 — 房地产与 REITs 压力测试：H4L 机制下的资产负债表“碎裂”风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-83f01d4a2006/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "1109.HK", "600048.SH", "001979.SZ", "0960.HK", "0688.HK", "000002.SZ", "0823.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-6f42e0fe6e", "title": "稀土、铜铝与关键材料正在成为 AI 与新能源共用的供给约束", "titleEn": "Rare earths, copper, aluminum, and key materials are becoming shared supply constraints for AI and energy transition", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-6f42e0fe6e/", "laneId": "lane_8c4a3526fcca", "lane": "关键材料/稀土铜铝", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/critical-materials-rare-earths-copper-and-aluminum/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 58, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 1, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究片 — 材料行业分析师：全链路综合分析", "summary": "前序研究片 — 材料行业分析师：全链路综合分析 取向硅钢、铜、结构钢与电池材料——多材料体系如何延长带电延迟时间轴并加深FCF低谷 分析师角色： materials-analyst | 立场： synthesize（综合） 研究来源：已归档 | 研究记录： 7/10 日期： 2026-05-06 …", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5d47f7691e3f/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" }, { "title": "前序研究片 — 材料行业分析师：全链路综合分析", "summary": "前序研究片 — 材料行业分析师：全链路综合分析 取向硅钢、铜、结构钢与电池材料——多材料体系如何延长带电延迟时间轴并加深FCF低谷", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-a153a6beb297/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "FCX", "GEV", "000831.SZ", "SCCO", "ETN", "MP", "TECK", "600111.SH", "600089.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-026aa1679b", "title": "云厂商自发电正在把 AI 交付风险转移到核电、燃气、电网与公用事业信用", "titleEn": "Cloud self-generation is shifting AI delivery risk into nuclear, gas, grid assets, and utility credit", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-026aa1679b/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI 数据中心电力与并网可交付性：PJM / ERCOT / 欧洲走廊 2026–2027 年到底塞不塞得下隐含负荷？", "summary": "AI 数据中心电力与并网可交付性：PJM / ERCOT / 欧洲走廊 2026–2027 年到底塞不塞得下隐含负荷？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-85bb20dde399/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI算力超级周期下的电力瓶颈：铀、燃气轮机、电网OEM与PPA经济性的重定价", "summary": "AI算力超级周期下的电力瓶颈：铀、燃气轮机、电网OEM与PPA经济性的重定价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e10c4c6a9ace/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "VST", "CEG", "GEV", "SMR", "META", "ETN", "MSFT", "AMZN", "AEP", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4f541b33ff", "title": "美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f541b33ff/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "宏观策略报告：USD/JPY 冲向 165 对人民币及北向资金的影响分析", "summary": "宏观策略报告：USD/JPY 冲向 165 对人民币及北向资金的影响分析", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d2199e63ec63/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4b64fc19f4", "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b64fc19f4/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "宏观策略报告：USD/JPY 冲向 165 对人民币及北向资金的影响分析", "summary": "宏观策略报告：USD/JPY 冲向 165 对人民币及北向资金的影响分析", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d2199e63ec63/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-80c15f4a7d", "title": "再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-80c15f4a7d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "宏观策略报告：USD/JPY 冲向 165 对人民币及北向资金的影响分析", "summary": "宏观策略报告：USD/JPY 冲向 165 对人民币及北向资金的影响分析", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d2199e63ec63/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-86be10e7fb", "title": "为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-86be10e7fb/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "summary": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d230c8eb1026/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CVX", "XOM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f0b8d44918", "title": "美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f0b8d44918/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "summary": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d230c8eb1026/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b6e4c7b469", "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b6e4c7b469/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI算力超级周期下的电力瓶颈：铀、燃气轮机、电网OEM与PPA经济性的重定价", "summary": "AI算力超级周期下的电力瓶颈：铀、燃气轮机、电网OEM与PPA经济性的重定价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e10c4c6a9ace/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-03dab97a77", "title": "人民币稳定使当前应保留滞胀杠铃，但用黄金、久期与轻USD对冲把组合从单一A股Beta改造成可按黄/红档汇率阶梯再平衡的跨资产防御组合。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币稳定使当前应保留滞胀杠铃，但用黄金、久期与轻USD对冲把组合从单一A股Beta改造成可按黄/红档汇率阶梯再平衡的跨资产防御组合。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-03dab97a77/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "summary": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d230c8eb1026/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3cafa5bcd5", "title": "在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在H4L美联储路径下，A股国家队作为央行隐性冲销池的机制使央行三难中的(C)资本账户开放先于(A)汇率防火墙崩溃，USD/CNY将以管理…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cafa5bcd5/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "宏观策略报告：USD/JPY 冲向 165 对人民币及北向资金的影响分析", "summary": "宏观策略报告：USD/JPY 冲向 165 对人民币及北向资金的影响分析", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d2199e63ec63/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-594ba5e705", "title": "在中美利差走阔且输入型AI信用冲击升级的情形下，USD/CNY能否守住6.85缓冲翻转线", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在中美利差走阔且输入型AI信用冲击升级的情形下，USD/CNY能否守住6.85缓冲翻转线", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-594ba5e705/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "summary": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d230c8eb1026/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7930de9cdc", "title": "沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7930de9cdc/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "summary": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d230c8eb1026/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-859ab241bf", "title": "依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 依托全球AI硬件超级周期的外溢效应与国内流动性宽松预期共振，A股TMT板块具备坚实的业绩兑现基础，将在跨国资金流入带动下确立其在“哑铃策…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-859ab241bf/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI驱动的WFE资本开支周期：先进封装与HBM设备订单可见性如何重塑半导体设备股的盈利久期", "summary": "AI驱动的WFE资本开支周期：先进封装与HBM设备订单可见性如何重塑半导体设备股的盈利久期", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c26cfce5dbb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "ASML", "688012.SH", "000660.KS", "MU", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-97f10202a2", "title": "中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-97f10202a2/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "summary": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d230c8eb1026/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-db4939d8d8", "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db4939d8d8/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI算力超级周期下的电力瓶颈：铀、燃气轮机、电网OEM与PPA经济性的重定价", "summary": "AI算力超级周期下的电力瓶颈：铀、燃气轮机、电网OEM与PPA经济性的重定价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e10c4c6a9ace/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "CEG", "VST", "ETN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ffa474a3f2", "title": "端侧 AI 与 Agent 桌面正在把算力竞争从云端扩展到芯片、OS 与消费电子供应链", "titleEn": "Edge AI and agent desktops are extending compute competition from cloud to chips, OS, and consumer-electronics supply...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ffa474a3f2/", "laneId": "lane_74d352e86208", "lane": "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/edge-ai-and-agent-desktop-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "压力测试：中国 AI Agent 落地“飞轮”背后的现实摩擦力", "summary": "日期： 2026年5月6日，周三 分析师： 数据科学家 (数据层负责人) 研究记录 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-Test)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c9388145339b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "MSFT", "NVDA", "META", "AAPL", "AMZN", "AMD", "ARM", "QCOM", "GOOGL", "002475.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0a0d09421e", "title": "AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI基建资本开支仍在加速，但从公告美元转化为已通电MW的比例正在下降，首个断点在数据中心交付和二线下游供应链，而不是NVIDIA近端GP…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0a0d09421e/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI 数据中心电力与并网可交付性：PJM / ERCOT / 欧洲走廊 2026–2027 年到底塞不塞得下隐含负荷？", "summary": "AI 数据中心电力与并网可交付性：PJM / ERCOT / 欧洲走廊 2026–2027 年到底塞不塞得下隐含负荷？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-85bb20dde399/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL" ] }, { "id": "thesis-40b8638803", "title": "全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 全球科技配置应超配ASIC与新代工生态；A股风格则需从“AI题材映射”战略性切换至独立算力的“国产第二供应源”，重仓先进封装产能、核心设…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-40b8638803/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI驱动的WFE资本开支周期：先进封装与HBM设备订单可见性如何重塑半导体设备股的盈利久期", "summary": "AI驱动的WFE资本开支周期：先进封装与HBM设备订单可见性如何重塑半导体设备股的盈利久期", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c26cfce5dbb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "000660.KS", "MU", "688012.SH", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3f6ee4feb9", "title": "核电容量机制可改善现金流，但资本开支约束仍在", "titleEn": "Nuclear capacity mechanisms may improve cash flow, but capex remains binding", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3f6ee4feb9/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI算力超级周期下的电力瓶颈：铀、燃气轮机、电网OEM与PPA经济性的重定价", "summary": "AI算力超级周期下的电力瓶颈：铀、燃气轮机、电网OEM与PPA经济性的重定价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e10c4c6a9ace/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600900.SH", "CEG", "AEP", "600025.SH", "DUK", "1816.HK", "NEE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-b37a11e5a3", "title": "FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: FOMC 后应以“选择性算力基础设施挤空”而非“无差别 AI 融涨”来交易：多稀缺、空低 ROIC，净多但对冲。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-b37a11e5a3/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI驱动的WFE资本开支周期：先进封装与HBM设备订单可见性如何重塑半导体设备股的盈利久期", "summary": "AI驱动的WFE资本开支周期：先进封装与HBM设备订单可见性如何重塑半导体设备股的盈利久期", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c26cfce5dbb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c89650af9e", "title": "酒店餐饮休闲复苏正在从客流修复转向 RevPAR、翻台率与小盘 Alpha", "titleEn": "Leisure, hotels, and restaurants are moving from traffic recovery to RevPAR, table turnover, and small-cap alpha", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c89650af9e/", "laneId": "lane_dd5a3eb17672", "lane": "酒店餐饮休闲/服务消费", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/hotels-restaurants-leisure-and-services-consumption/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "体验溢价的宏观周期图谱", "summary": "日期： 2026年5月6日 分析师： 首席经济学家 立场： support 当前问题： 哪些宏观变量最能解释体验溢价何时扩大或压缩？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fd2f5da825db/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "9922.HK", "3690.HK", "001215.SZ", "YUMC", "300144.SZ", "1179.HK", "0780.HK", "605108.SH", "9658.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-be91bfe6ee", "title": "高纯石英材料需求需由先进封装订单验证", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz demand requires validation from advanced-packaging orders", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-be91bfe6ee/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 63, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI驱动的WFE资本开支周期：先进封装与HBM设备订单可见性如何重塑半导体设备股的盈利久期", "summary": "AI驱动的WFE资本开支周期：先进封装与HBM设备订单可见性如何重塑半导体设备股的盈利久期", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c26cfce5dbb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "000660.KS", "688012.SH", "MU", "ASML", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-89c14497ac", "title": "期权伽马、ETF 与尾盘流动性正在放大主题交易的微观结构风险", "titleEn": "Options gamma, ETFs, and closing liquidity are amplifying microstructure risk in theme trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-89c14497ac/", "laneId": "lane_2ba2ee6db1ee", "lane": "期权伽马/市场微观结构", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/options-gamma-and-market-microstructure/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "现货 VIX 与看跌期权比例 (P/C Ratio) 背离深度分析", "summary": "核心结论 当前 VIX 回落与 P/C 比例（1.18）维持高位的现象，并非单纯的市场情绪矛盾，而是典型的“Vanna/Charm 驱动型挤压” (Vanna/Charm Squeeze) 微观机制所致。 1. VIX 下行动力：主要由交...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-465f327af161/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CBOE", "CME", "HOOD", "IBKR", "VIRT", "VIXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a6599a3f5", "title": "新一代信息技术国产替代要从信创叙事进入算力、软件与安全订单验证", "titleEn": "Domestic IT substitution must move from policy narrative to compute, software, and security order proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a6599a3f5/", "laneId": "lane_e4f90acbf804", "lane": "信创/国产 IT 栈", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/domestic-it-substitution-stack/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 发布前最终QA与数字一致性审计", "summary": "前序研究 — 发布前最终QA与数字一致性审计 分析师： qa-manager（研究质量主管）[reviewer，触发条件 d — 多步论证的发布前最终QA] 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 主题： 发布前对10卡研究...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0b73ccc9112a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "300308.SZ", "NVDA", "000977.SZ", "688008.SH", "688012.SH", "688111.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-cb2ab35c55", "title": "AI 基础设施扩张从规模驱动切换到 TCO、能效和利用率筛选", "titleEn": "AI infrastructure expansion is shifting from scale to TCO, power efficiency, and utilization screening", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-cb2ab35c55/", "laneId": "lane_2d0dcf520f87", "lane": "AI 基建 TCO/能效筛选", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-infrastructure-tco-and-efficiency-reset/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 58, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI驱动的WFE资本开支周期：先进封装与HBM设备订单可见性如何重塑半导体设备股的盈利久期", "summary": "AI驱动的WFE资本开支周期：先进封装与HBM设备订单可见性如何重塑半导体设备股的盈利久期", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9c26cfce5dbb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "META", "MU", "MSFT", "AVGO", "VRT", "000660.KS", "DELL" ] }, { "id": "thesis-08dd090dc9", "title": "公用事业从防御红利切换到电网扩容、容量费与信用再定价", "titleEn": "Utilities are shifting from defensive dividends to grid expansion, capacity fees, and credit repricing", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08dd090dc9/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI算力超级周期下的电力瓶颈：铀、燃气轮机、电网OEM与PPA经济性的重定价", "summary": "AI算力超级周期下的电力瓶颈：铀、燃气轮机、电网OEM与PPA经济性的重定价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e10c4c6a9ace/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "AEP", "600900.SH", "CEG", "DUK", "VST", "XLU", "META", "NEE", "SMR", "GEV" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ce29facfbd", "title": "中国资产定价仍受政策、流动性与风险偏好共同驱动", "titleEn": "China asset pricing remains driven by policy, liquidity, and risk appetite", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ce29facfbd/", "laneId": "lane_a8d9c69ae883", "lane": "中国权益流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-equity-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 52, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "4197失败后的节后A股市场结构验证", "summary": "角色： A股策略师 研究记录 立场： 综合 既有研究记录的中国宏观框架与市场结构证据 事件窗口： 主检验窗口为 2026-03-03 上证综指盘中高点 4197.23 之后的十个交易日，即 2026-03-04...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ab41a4cf442f/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "0700.HK", "9988.HK", "510300.SH", "159915.SZ", "300750.SZ", "3988.HK", "588000.SH", "LOW" ] }, { "id": "thesis-1aaa752ed4", "title": "AI 电力与电网瓶颈仍是基础设施主线", "titleEn": "AI power and grid bottlenecks remain the infrastructure core", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-1aaa752ed4/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 45, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI算力超级周期下的电力瓶颈：铀、燃气轮机、电网OEM与PPA经济性的重定价", "summary": "AI算力超级周期下的电力瓶颈：铀、燃气轮机、电网OEM与PPA经济性的重定价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e10c4c6a9ace/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "META", "600089.SH", "MSFT", "601179.SH", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4c7f6c5bc7", "title": "小型模块化反应堆价值取决于项目融资、许可与首堆执行", "titleEn": "Small modular reactor value depends on project financing, licensing and first-of-a-kind execution", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4c7f6c5bc7/", "laneId": "lane_a431ca971c3c", "lane": "小型模块化反应堆项目兑现", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/small-modular-reactor-project-execution/", "direction": "strengthening", "directionLabel": "强化", "conviction": 32, "supports": 0, "risks": 0, "neutral": 1, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究片 — 工业制造分析师：交付之墙", "summary": "前序研究片 — 工业制造分析师：交付之墙 制造精度、国防挤出与重载物流——为何“材料”仅解释了2027年带电滑期的一半 分析师角色： 工业制造分析师 (Industrials Analyst) 立场： 压力测试 (Stress-test) 研究来源：已归档 b9c5 4ef9 aadd 4df11…", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-e15732bd24e7/", "stance": "neutral", "stanceLabel": "观察" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "CEG", "ETN", "SMR", "SO" ] } ], "lanes": [ { "id": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "title": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "href": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "thesisCount": 9, "eventCount": 10, "convictionTotal": 712, "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ], "avgConviction": 79 }, { "id": "lane_f1a271385aff", "title": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "href": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "thesisCount": 6, "eventCount": 10, "convictionTotal": 406, "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "ASML", "688012.SH", "000660.KS", "MU", "002916.SZ", "AMD", "META", "AVGO", "MSFT", "AMZN" ], "avgConviction": 68 }, { "id": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "title": "AI 算力半导体", "href": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "thesisCount": 3, "eventCount": 7, "convictionTotal": 207, "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS", "META", "AMD", "AVGO", "MSFT", "GOOGL", "AMZN" ], "avgConviction": 69 }, { "id": "lane_13710af7e06d", "title": "低价模型/AI 软件利润池", "href": "/investor/lanes/low-cost-models-and-ai-software-profit-pools/", "thesisCount": 1, "eventCount": 4, "convictionTotal": 72, "stockTickers": [ "BABA", "MSFT", "BIDU", "9988.HK", "CRM", "0700.HK", "NVDA", "NOW", "9888.HK" ], "avgConviction": 72 }, { "id": "lane_2997650d0638", "title": "中国云/国产算力栈", "href": "/investor/lanes/china-cloud-and-local-compute-stack/", "thesisCount": 1, "eventCount": 4, "convictionTotal": 66, "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "300308.SZ", "601138.SH", "0981.HK", "688981.SH", "000977.SZ", "9988.HK", "NVDA", "0700.HK" ], "avgConviction": 66 }, { "id": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "title": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "href": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "thesisCount": 2, "eventCount": 3, "convictionTotal": 127, "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "CEG", "VST", "ETN", "SMR", "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "AEP", "NVDA" ], "avgConviction": 64 }, { "id": 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