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"NVDA", "NOW", "9888.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-31f32af77b", "title": "中国云与国产算力栈的关键不是模型热度，而是训练/推理订单、服务器交付和生态锁定", "titleEn": "China cloud and local compute stacks depend less on model hype than training/inference orders, server delivery, and e...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-31f32af77b/", "laneId": "lane_2997650d0638", "lane": "中国云/国产算力栈", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-cloud-and-local-compute-stack/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "港美股策略师：AI 算力国产替代在离岸市场的定价路径与跨境执行", "summary": "既有研究记录— 港美股策略师：AI 算力国产替代在离岸市场的定价路径与跨境执行", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-50f03ef87a55/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "港股\"南向算力\"套利链：日内瓦关税预期下的离岸Ascend集群价值重估", "summary": "港美股策略师研究报告 既有研究记录 角色：港美股策略师 立场：压力测试 日期：2026-05-04", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ef4b38daac44/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "衍生品策略报告：港股 AI 算力国产替代组合的 CNH 对冲执行", "summary": "衍生品策略报告：港股 AI 算力国产替代组合的 CNH 对冲执行 分析师： derivatives-strategist 衍生品策略师 日期： 2026-05-04 立场： 综合 (执行层)", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-bd23d8a4c686/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "300308.SZ", "601138.SH", "0981.HK", "688981.SH", "000977.SZ", "9988.HK", "NVDA", "0700.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9a860a8801", "title": "信用再融资压力正在把利率风险转化为资产负债表筛选", "titleEn": "Credit refinancing pressure is turning rate risk into balance-sheet selection", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9a860a8801/", "laneId": "lane_b29e1d216a21", "lane": "信用再融资/私募信贷", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/credit-refinancing-and-private-debt/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 52, "supports": 0, "risks": 3, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 3, "events": [ { "title": "H4L 与约 5,700 亿美元到期墙下的区域性银行 CRE 信用压力测试", "summary": "H4L 与约 5,700 亿美元到期墙下的区域性银行 CRE 信用压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b1f4a8871762/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "区域性银行信用压力是否会改写美联储反应函数？", "summary": "日期： 2026-05-04 - 分析师： 首席经济学家 [Primary] - 立场： 压力测试 (stress-test) - 研究记录 - 承接： 既有研究记录(全球宏观——\"类滞胀\")、既有研究记录(大类资产配...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-37b1637ed6af/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "第六张研究记录研究报告：4Q26宽松窗口压力测试的金融行业综合解读", "summary": "分析师： financials-analyst （银行 / 保险 / 经纪 / 金融科技） 立场： synthesize（综合） 日期： 2026-05-04 问题： 综合债券分析师对关税加油价粘性情景下4Q26宽松窗口的压力测试，这一利...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-7cd0ab6accf0/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "KRE", "JPM", "META", "BX", "ARES", "KKR", "APO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0", "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层", "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "在每 MW 经济分层之下：美股大科技与 AI 基础设施的板块配置", "summary": "既有研究记录— 在每 MW 经济分层之下：美股大科技与 AI 基础设施的板块配置", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-852d30fceff3/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "Meta DAU首降：是社交媒体成长赛道的终结，还是估值锚点的迁移？", "summary": "既有研究记录 — 首席策略师 (ashare-strategist) 立场：initial（开题定调） 日期：2026-05-04", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-18593d1bbd5c/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "TSM", "AVGO", "AAPL", "TSLA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-23a6e00e51", "title": "BOJ 正常化超调不是基础概率最高的宏观意外，但它最符合“JPY 升值 + CNH 贬值 + SPX 跌破零 gamma”的三条件 FX…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: BOJ 正常化超调不是基础概率最高的宏观意外，但它最符合“JPY 升值 + CNH 贬值 + SPX 跌破零 gamma”的三条件 FX…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-23a6e00e51/", "laneId": "lane_b29e1d216a21", "lane": "信用再融资/私募信贷", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/credit-refinancing-and-private-debt/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "区域性银行信用压力是否会改写美联储反应函数？", "summary": "日期： 2026-05-04 - 分析师： 首席经济学家 [Primary] - 立场： 压力测试 (stress-test) - 研究记录 - 承接： 既有研究记录(全球宏观——\"类滞胀\")、既有研究记录(大类资产配...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-37b1637ed6af/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "H4L 与约 5,700 亿美元到期墙下的区域性银行 CRE 信用压力测试", "summary": "H4L 与约 5,700 亿美元到期墙下的区域性银行 CRE 信用压力测试", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b1f4a8871762/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "KRE", "JPM", "KKR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9d3836cc07", "title": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "titleEn": "AI 生产率去通胀需要等待采用率和流程重构验证", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9d3836cc07/", "laneId": "lane_008e3bd9306a", "lane": "AI 软件效率/生产率", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-software-productivity/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 58, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "首席经济学家研究报告：AI 资本开支、r 与通胀体制", "summary": "研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] Analyst ID: chief-economist Stance: Synthesize 研究日期: 2026-05-04", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-184bea520c3a/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "Meta DAU首降：是社交媒体成长赛道的终结，还是估值锚点的迁移？", "summary": "既有研究记录 — 首席策略师 (ashare-strategist) 立场：initial（开题定调） 日期：2026-05-04", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-18593d1bbd5c/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "NVDA", "NOW", "CRM", "ADBE" ] }, { "id": "thesis-075017003b", "title": "AI 资本开支通过能源、设备和利率进入通胀定价", "titleEn": "AI capex enters inflation pricing through energy, equipment, and rates", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-075017003b/", "laneId": "lane_c0702fb29e08", "lane": "AI 再通胀/利率敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-reflation-and-rate-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "stable", "directionLabel": "稳定", "conviction": 55, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "支撑2万亿美元电网Capex周期的宏观容纳力：利率路径、通胀传导与央行政策对受监管公用事业再融资的...", "summary": "支撑2万亿美元电网Capex周期的宏观容纳力：利率路径、通胀传导与央行政策对受监管公用事业再融资的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ea7f509f0901/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "首席经济学家研究报告：AI 资本开支、r 与通胀体制", "summary": "研究线程标识: [source-id-redacted] Analyst ID: chief-economist Stance: Synthesize 研究日期: 2026-05-04", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-184bea520c3a/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "XLE", "TLT", "XLU", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-485a630a87", "title": "自动驾驶与 Robotaxi 主题必须从演示热度进入单位经济和监管城市扩张验证", "titleEn": "Autonomous driving and robotaxi themes must move from demo excitement to unit economics and regulated city expansion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-485a630a87/", "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da", "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 51, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "新能源车价格战 vs. 反内卷集中度通道", "summary": "既有研究记录 · Analyst: auto-analyst · 立场: stress-test · 日期: 2026-05-04", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3286902feaf1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "USD 100M 昇腾-DeepSeek 压力组合的执行、清算与再平衡路径", "summary": "USD 100M 昇腾-DeepSeek 压力组合的执行、清算与再平衡路径", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-685e8fbfe231/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GOOGL", "TSLA", "NVDA", "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "BIDU", "XPEV", "002594.SZ", "2015.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-026aa1679b", "title": "云厂商自发电正在把 AI 交付风险转移到核电、燃气、电网与公用事业信用", "titleEn": "Cloud self-generation is shifting AI delivery risk into nuclear, gas, grid assets, and utility credit", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-026aa1679b/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 2, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "美国电力供给与电网并网能否承接2026–2027年超大规模云厂商AI建设节奏？", "summary": "美国电力供给与电网并网能否承接2026–2027年超大规模云厂商AI建设节奏？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99896705c1bd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "AI需求时代的发电资产投资确定性、核电复兴与PPA定价机制", "summary": "AI需求时代的发电资产投资确定性、核电复兴与PPA定价机制 分析师： energy-analyst 立场： 综合 日期： 2026-05-04", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-3bab9275ab20/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "VST", "CEG", "GEV", "SMR", "META", "ETN", "MSFT", "AMZN", "AEP", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4f541b33ff", "title": "美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f541b33ff/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "FX 策略报告：5.4 万亿日元干预后，BOJ 6 月不加息情形下 USD/JPY 突破 160 的概率评估", "summary": "FX 策略报告：5.4 万亿日元干预后，BOJ 6 月不加息情形下 USD/JPY 突破 160 的概率评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d3f083b0c5b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4b64fc19f4", "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b64fc19f4/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "FX 策略报告：5.4 万亿日元干预后，BOJ 6 月不加息情形下 USD/JPY 突破 160 的概率评估", "summary": "FX 策略报告：5.4 万亿日元干预后，BOJ 6 月不加息情形下 USD/JPY 突破 160 的概率评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d3f083b0c5b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e4e956cd41", "title": "通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e4e956cd41/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "FX 策略报告：5.4 万亿日元干预后，BOJ 6 月不加息情形下 USD/JPY 突破 160 的概率评估", "summary": "FX 策略报告：5.4 万亿日元干预后，BOJ 6 月不加息情形下 USD/JPY 突破 160 的概率评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d3f083b0c5b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-950a54ea98", "title": "保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-950a54ea98/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "FX 策略报告：5.4 万亿日元干预后，BOJ 6 月不加息情形下 USD/JPY 突破 160 的概率评估", "summary": "FX 策略报告：5.4 万亿日元干预后，BOJ 6 月不加息情形下 USD/JPY 突破 160 的概率评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d3f083b0c5b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-07b4ef2695", "title": "地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-07b4ef2695/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "关税加油价粘性情景下，利率市场对4Q26宽松窗口的定价压力测试", "summary": "分析师： bond-analyst 债券分析师（利率、信用、收益率曲线、久期管理） 日期： 2026-05-04 任务： weekly report 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 研究记录", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f5bd10444592/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CVX", "XOM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7e7e42edce", "title": "随着SpaceX即将于6月12日IPO且估值高达2万亿美元，散户疯狂将SPCE作为交易代理并引发暴涨，而同期的RKLB和ASTS已开始暴…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 随着SpaceX即将于6月12日IPO且估值高达2万亿美元，散户疯狂将SPCE作为交易代理并引发暴涨，而同期的RKLB和ASTS已开始暴…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7e7e42edce/", "laneId": "lane_54700cb9537f", "lane": "商业航天/卫星直连", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/commercial-space-and-direct-to-device-satellite/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "支撑2万亿美元电网Capex周期的宏观容纳力：利率路径、通胀传导与央行政策对受监管公用事业再融资的...", "summary": "支撑2万亿美元电网Capex周期的宏观容纳力：利率路径、通胀传导与央行政策对受监管公用事业再融资的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ea7f509f0901/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "RKLB", "ASTS", "RDW", "LUNR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e58a9e8746", "title": "日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e58a9e8746/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "FX 策略报告：5.4 万亿日元干预后，BOJ 6 月不加息情形下 USD/JPY 突破 160 的概率评估", "summary": "FX 策略报告：5.4 万亿日元干预后，BOJ 6 月不加息情形下 USD/JPY 突破 160 的概率评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d3f083b0c5b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d74ae315e8", "title": "当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d74ae315e8/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "FX 策略报告：5.4 万亿日元干预后，BOJ 6 月不加息情形下 USD/JPY 突破 160 的概率评估", "summary": "FX 策略报告：5.4 万亿日元干预后，BOJ 6 月不加息情形下 USD/JPY 突破 160 的概率评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d3f083b0c5b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-24cd0b5ff9", "title": "在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在4月28日—5月1日Meta/Microsoft/Alphabet/Amazon集中披露Q1 2026业绩的窗口，capex指引会向上…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-24cd0b5ff9/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "TMT 视角：每 MW 收入决定 AI Capex 是否值得", "summary": "既有研究记录— TMT 视角：每 MW 收入决定 AI Capex 是否值得", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c2a0e660c11f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "GOOGL", "AMZN", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0011ad682c", "title": "美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0011ad682c/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "FX 策略报告：5.4 万亿日元干预后，BOJ 6 月不加息情形下 USD/JPY 突破 160 的概率评估", "summary": "FX 策略报告：5.4 万亿日元干预后，BOJ 6 月不加息情形下 USD/JPY 突破 160 的概率评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d3f083b0c5b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "JPM", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-69025fa4b4", "title": "驱动对冲阶梯的 Fed / BoJ / ECB 政策路径", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 驱动对冲阶梯的 Fed / BoJ / ECB 政策路径", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-69025fa4b4/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "FX 策略报告：5.4 万亿日元干预后，BOJ 6 月不加息情形下 USD/JPY 突破 160 的概率评估", "summary": "FX 策略报告：5.4 万亿日元干预后，BOJ 6 月不加息情形下 USD/JPY 突破 160 的概率评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d3f083b0c5b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-29b1c0d6c7", "title": "日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-29b1c0d6c7/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "FX 策略报告：5.4 万亿日元干预后，BOJ 6 月不加息情形下 USD/JPY 突破 160 的概率评估", "summary": "FX 策略报告：5.4 万亿日元干预后，BOJ 6 月不加息情形下 USD/JPY 突破 160 的概率评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d3f083b0c5b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0e520ff02a", "title": "能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通缩下的主要风险不是油价本身，而是高名义利率叠加下行通胀形成的实质利率冲击，组合防御应以久期和流动性为核心。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0e520ff02a/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "支撑2万亿美元电网Capex周期的宏观容纳力：利率路径、通胀传导与央行政策对受监管公用事业再融资的...", "summary": "支撑2万亿美元电网Capex周期的宏观容纳力：利率路径、通胀传导与央行政策对受监管公用事业再融资的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ea7f509f0901/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CVX", "XOM", "SLB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c951442d7f", "title": "日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c951442d7f/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "FX 策略报告：5.4 万亿日元干预后，BOJ 6 月不加息情形下 USD/JPY 突破 160 的概率评估", "summary": "FX 策略报告：5.4 万亿日元干预后，BOJ 6 月不加息情形下 USD/JPY 突破 160 的概率评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d3f083b0c5b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4ad776c10c", "title": "地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘缓和致WTI重挫超6%至76.05美元，但美联储维持偏鹰加息倾向，通胀降温与高实际利率并存。这是否标志着上游资源品通胀红利估值逻辑的…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4ad776c10c/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "支撑2万亿美元电网Capex周期的宏观容纳力：利率路径、通胀传导与央行政策对受监管公用事业再融资的...", "summary": "支撑2万亿美元电网Capex周期的宏观容纳力：利率路径、通胀传导与央行政策对受监管公用事业再融资的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ea7f509f0901/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "SLB", "OXY", "0883.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-db4939d8d8", "title": "核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 核能/SMR：算力电力瓶颈的高波动映射", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-db4939d8d8/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 公用事业压力测试：清洁坚实电力才是真正的算力溢价", "summary": "分析师：公用事业分析师 · 立场： stress-test - 日期：2026-05-04 - 继承关系：前序研究认为，AI算力不应按泛化的超大规模云厂商篮子定价，而应按电网保障与低碳电力可得性定价...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d8245a7e49a8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "CEG", "VST", "ETN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-27c1e713e6", "title": "日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-27c1e713e6/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "FX 策略报告：5.4 万亿日元干预后，BOJ 6 月不加息情形下 USD/JPY 突破 160 的概率评估", "summary": "FX 策略报告：5.4 万亿日元干预后，BOJ 6 月不加息情形下 USD/JPY 突破 160 的概率评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0d3f083b0c5b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-820459973e", "title": "在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在距离OBBBA法案7月4日开工红线仅22天、且变压器积压导致绿电并网排队项目创纪录撤回的背景下，电网容量费暴增9.3倍如何侵蚀云厂商A…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-820459973e/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "美国电力供给与电网并网能否承接2026–2027年超大规模云厂商AI建设节奏？", "summary": "美国电力供给与电网并网能否承接2026–2027年超大规模云厂商AI建设节奏？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99896705c1bd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "002028.SZ", "ETN", "601179.SH", "600089.SH", "CEG", "VST" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d8170c3a35", "title": "近海资本开支与设备利用率驱动油服盈利弹性", "titleEn": "Offshore capex and equipment utilization drive oilfield-service earnings leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d8170c3a35/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "关税加油价粘性情景下，利率市场对4Q26宽松窗口的定价压力测试", "summary": "分析师： bond-analyst 债券分析师（利率、信用、收益率曲线、久期管理） 日期： 2026-05-04 任务： weekly report 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 研究记录", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f5bd10444592/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CVX", "XOM", "0883.HK", "COP", "2883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4749f7193b", "title": "云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 云厂商自发电：公用事业信用与电力资产再定价", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4749f7193b/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "美国电力供给与电网并网能否承接2026–2027年超大规模云厂商AI建设节奏？", "summary": "美国电力供给与电网并网能否承接2026–2027年超大规模云厂商AI建设节奏？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99896705c1bd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "601985.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a10279b001", "title": "面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a10279b001/", "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649", "lane": "AI 算力半导体", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "7250 亿美元 Capex 重估后:美股 AI 基建链与中国算力链的配置", "summary": "7250 亿美元 Capex 重估后:美股 AI 基建链与中国算力链的配置", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2b3f4169205f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "NVDA", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-100e81e234", "title": "AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: AI大基建进入“能效优先”阶段，二级市场资金正从粗放型算力硬件（CPO/服务器）向电力基建“瓶颈资产”与半导体先进封装“能效资产”进行结…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-100e81e234/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "国产AI算力链条的A股/港股板块再配置剧本", "summary": "国产AI算力链条的A股/港股板块再配置剧本 首席策略师研究卡 既有研究记录 分析师 : chief-strategist 日期: 2026-05-04 立场: synthesize", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eef5a8c7fd46/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-89c14497ac", "title": "期权伽马、ETF 与尾盘流动性正在放大主题交易的微观结构风险", "titleEn": "Options gamma, ETFs, and closing liquidity are amplifying microstructure risk in theme trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-89c14497ac/", "laneId": "lane_2ba2ee6db1ee", "lane": "期权伽马/市场微观结构", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/options-gamma-and-market-microstructure/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "宏观防火墙的衍生品结构化：SOX保险、CNH/JPY覆盖与UST期权层", "summary": "既有研究记录 — 衍生品策略师 (Derivatives Strategist) 立场：SYNTHESIZE（综合） 日期：2026-05-04 工作区说明： 所有上游文件（ 研究档案 、 研究档案 、...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ada42b6aac59/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CBOE", "CME", "HOOD", "IBKR", "VIRT", "VIXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-603a5f7966", "title": "A 股硬科技与科创50的复苏需要订单、融资盘和指数结构共振", "titleEn": "A-share hard tech and STAR50 recovery needs orders, margin positioning, and index structure to align", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-603a5f7966/", "laneId": "lane_4cc1e74d8e5f", "lane": "A股硬科技/科创50", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/a-share-hard-tech-and-star50/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 56, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "研究记录03压力测试：A股市场结构会把DeepSeek冲击放大成拥挤交易", "summary": "研究记录03压力测试：A股市场结构会把DeepSeek冲击放大成拥挤交易", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-6d196ad57104/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "688256.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "688041.SH", "600900.SH", "688008.SH", "588000.SH", "300394.SZ", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-fd31cc177b", "title": "债券供给、地方债与久期需求决定利率下行空间", "titleEn": "Bond supply, local-government debt, and duration demand define room for rates to fall", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-fd31cc177b/", "laneId": "lane_6fbf93c613f9", "lane": "债券供给/银行久期", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/bond-supply-and-bank-duration/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 54, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 利率、曲线与久期综合：为「能源—工资」持续路径定价", "summary": "分析师: bond-analyst (债券分析师) 立场: synthesize - 日期: 2026-05-04 - 输入: 前序研究（首席经济学家，\"Fed 保留有条件宽松倾向但近期无法降息\"）、前序研究（能源行业分析师，\"Q2 能源持...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-242770343539/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601398.SH", "601939.SH", "601288.SH", "3988.HK", "600900.SH", "TLT", "IEF", "000001.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-08dd090dc9", "title": "公用事业从防御红利切换到电网扩容、容量费与信用再定价", "titleEn": "Utilities are shifting from defensive dividends to grid expansion, capacity fees, and credit repricing", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-08dd090dc9/", "laneId": "lane_22c1ed929e2e", "lane": "公用事业/电网信用", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/utilities-grid-rate-base-and-credit/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "资助2万亿美元的电网超级周期：债务可持续性与信用风险", "summary": "既有研究记录— 资助2万亿美元的电网超级周期：债务可持续性与信用风险", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-4459541695b4/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "AEP", "600900.SH", "CEG", "DUK", "VST", "XLU", "META", "NEE", "SMR", "GEV" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7f0a75c5f6", "title": "数据中心地产、液冷与水资源正在决定 AI 容量的区域迁移", "titleEn": "Data-center real estate, liquid cooling, and water resources are deciding regional migration of AI capacity", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7f0a75c5f6/", "laneId": "lane_0679894fe06b", "lane": "数据中心地产/液冷", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/data-center-real-estate-and-cooling/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 53, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "工业制造分析师：OEM产能扩张压力测试", "summary": "工业制造分析师：OEM产能扩张压力测试 重型燃气轮机铸造线、变压器绕组产能与HV开关装配吞吐能否在2027–2029窗口实际落地？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-b3d1686a13ba/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "VRT", "ETN", "META", "NVDA", "GEV", "MSFT", "DLR", "EQIX", "SMR" ] }, { "id": "thesis-9e97140446", "title": "中国电力设备出海进入订单质量与政策筛选期", "titleEn": "Chinese power-equipment exports enter an order-quality and policy filter phase", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-9e97140446/", "laneId": "lane_e4b72516d71a", "lane": "中国电力设备出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-power-equipment-exports/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "美国电力供给与电网并网能否承接2026–2027年超大规模云厂商AI建设节奏？", "summary": "美国电力供给与电网并网能否承接2026–2027年超大规模云厂商AI建设节奏？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99896705c1bd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "002028.SZ", "600089.SH", "601179.SH", "ETN", "GEV", "002270.SZ", "688676.SH", "ABBNY", "600406.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-a803fa3312", "title": "美联储路径仍是全球资产再定价的总阀门", "titleEn": "The Fed path remains the master valve for global asset repricing", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a803fa3312/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 46, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "支撑2万亿美元电网Capex周期的宏观容纳力：利率路径、通胀传导与央行政策对受监管公用事业再融资的...", "summary": "支撑2万亿美元电网Capex周期的宏观容纳力：利率路径、通胀传导与央行政策对受监管公用事业再融资的影响", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ea7f509f0901/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "TLT", "JPM", "KRE", "GLD", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-1aaa752ed4", "title": "AI 电力与电网瓶颈仍是基础设施主线", "titleEn": "AI power and grid bottlenecks remain the infrastructure core", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-1aaa752ed4/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 45, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "美国电力供给与电网并网能否承接2026–2027年超大规模云厂商AI建设节奏？", "summary": "美国电力供给与电网并网能否承接2026–2027年超大规模云厂商AI建设节奏？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-99896705c1bd/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "META", "600089.SH", "MSFT", "601179.SH", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e26ef69f73", "title": "风险核查与证据质量是主题交易的必要过滤器", "titleEn": "Risk verification and evidence quality are necessary filters for theme trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e26ef69f73/", "laneId": "lane_ccbe817778d1", "lane": "组合风控/证据质量", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/portfolio-risk-and-evidence-quality/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "能源冲击的持续性及其向美国通胀的传导", "summary": "研究记录 分析师: energy-analyst (能源行业分析师) 立场: stress-test - 日期: 2026-05-04 - 前序研究: chief-economist 的判断是 Fed 仍可保留有条件宽松倾向，但近期降息证据不足，因为 CPI...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c08b4662cb31/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CME", "CBOE", "IBKR", "VIRT", "SH" ] } ], "lanes": [ { "id": "lane_1c216bd29875", "title": "美债利率/美元再定价", "href": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "thesisCount": 6, "eventCount": 6, "convictionTotal": 442, "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP", "JPM", "CME", "KRE", "GLD" ], "avgConviction": 74 }, { "id": "lane_b29e1d216a21", "title": "信用再融资/私募信贷", "href": "/investor/lanes/credit-refinancing-and-private-debt/", "thesisCount": 2, "eventCount": 5, "convictionTotal": 117, "stockTickers": [ "KRE", "JPM", "KKR", "META", "BX", "ARES", "APO" ], "avgConviction": 59 }, { "id": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "title": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "href": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "thesisCount": 4, "eventCount": 4, "convictionTotal": 317, "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ], "avgConviction": 79 }, { "id": "lane_93300d58763e", "title": "油气/地缘通胀", "href": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "thesisCount": 4, "eventCount": 4, "convictionTotal": 305, "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CVX", "XOM", "SLB", "OXY", "COP", "2883.HK" ], "avgConviction": 76 }, { "id": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "title": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "href": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "thesisCount": 3, "eventCount": 4, "convictionTotal": 194, "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "CEG", "VST", "ETN", "601985.SH", "SMR", "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "AEP", "NVDA" ], "avgConviction": 65 }, { "id": "lane_f21fc181388a", "title": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "href": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "thesisCount": 2, "eventCount": 3, "convictionTotal": 146, "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "GOOGL", "AMZN", "NVDA", "TSM", "AVGO", "AAPL", "TSLA" ], "avgConviction": 73 }, { "id": "lane_13710af7e06d", "title": "低价模型/AI 软件利润池", "href": "/investor/lanes/low-cost-models-and-ai-software-profit-pools/", "thesisCount": 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