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"href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "中国AI自主化飞轮：DeepSeek V4 × 华为Ascend 950PR协同效应分析 分析师： tmt analyst TMT行业研究 日期： 2026 05 02 研究任...", "question": "Use fresh search to choose one concrete, timely research topic inside Chart patterns, MA systems, volume-price, Elliott waves / Breakout Alert, then e...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "technical-analyst", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" }, { "title": "推理规模法则 vs 训练规模法则", "question": "在 2026 年的算力环境下，增加推理计算量（Test-time compute）对最终模型能力的贡献是否已超过增加预训练数据量？这将如何改变 2027 年的 HBM 与 GPU 需求配比...", "status": "completed", "analyst": "TMT行业分析师", "noteCount": 8, "href": "/investor/console/#operations" } ], "thesisEvents": [ { "id": "thesis-bb46b0c3de", "title": "USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: USD/JPY与USD/CNY不是直接拉爆A股硬件链融资盘的拉绳，而是通过SOX估值代理与人民币波动率→券商折算率传导的放大器，CNH/…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bb46b0c3de/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导", "summary": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导 压力测试：外汇市场是否已开始定价美联储独立性折价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0365dbba6adf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "summary": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-127ae0379a55/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-31f32af77b", "title": "中国云与国产算力栈的关键不是模型热度，而是训练/推理订单、服务器交付和生态锁定", "titleEn": "China cloud and local compute stacks depend less on model hype than training/inference orders, server delivery, and e...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-31f32af77b/", "laneId": "lane_2997650d0638", "lane": "中国云/国产算力栈", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/china-cloud-and-local-compute-stack/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 - 2026 年 5-9 月 A 股执行操作手册", "summary": "分析师： 首席策略师 立场： 综合并收尾 日期： 2026-05-02 主题： 把已压测的 35/35/30 杠铃落地为可执行的 A 股操作手册。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f88ca6adc6df/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "工业 AI 供应链重估下的毛利水平与现金流压力测试", "summary": "会话主题：DeepSeek V4 国产生态 立场：综合 分析师：金融行业分析师（银行、保险、券商、金融科技） 日期：2026-05-02", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-ff25422652f0/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "300308.SZ", "601138.SH", "0981.HK", "688981.SH", "000977.SZ", "9988.HK", "NVDA", "0700.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-89c14497ac", "title": "期权伽马、ETF 与尾盘流动性正在放大主题交易的微观结构风险", "titleEn": "Options gamma, ETFs, and closing liquidity are amplifying microstructure risk in theme trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-89c14497ac/", "laneId": "lane_2ba2ee6db1ee", "lane": "期权伽马/市场微观结构", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/options-gamma-and-market-microstructure/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 2, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "量化 Gamma 悬崖:做市商库存、雪球敲入密度与 0DTE/离散度短波动率盘", "summary": "量化 Gamma 悬崖:做市商库存、雪球敲入密度与 0DTE/离散度短波动率盘", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-be917850c6cb/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "对冲后因子价差的期权结构选择与波动率曲面定价", "summary": "既有研究记录— 对冲后因子价差的期权结构选择与波动率曲面定价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-8a1a12625a3b/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CBOE", "CME", "HOOD", "IBKR", "VIRT", "VIXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3d421524cd", "title": "油价地缘底线决定再通胀与降息交易的安全边际", "titleEn": "The geopolitical oil floor defines the margin of safety for disinflation and rate-cut trades", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3d421524cd/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 50, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "研究报告：130美元油价下的美股科技估值压缩与港股高股息轮动", "summary": "1. 宏观背景：“滞胀锁死”体制 正如研究记录 03 所确立的，原油价格受霍尔木兹海峡关闭及阿联酋退出 OPEC 驱动飙升至 130 美元/桶，这使全球经济陷入滞胀。美联储为应对能源通胀维持 3.75% 的...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f38fe6867a72/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" }, { "title": "130 美元 Brent 持续两个季度下的新兴市场主权信用压力测试", "summary": "分析师： 首席风控官 (chief-risk, reviewer) 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 日期： 2026-05-02 问题： 若 Brent 油价在 130 美元维持超过两个季度，哪些能源进口依赖型新兴经济体的 CDS 将触...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-42c867d897ac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CME", "CVX", "XOM", "600938.SH", "600900.SH", "0857.HK", "COP", "601857.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-026aa1679b", "title": "云厂商自发电正在把 AI 交付风险转移到核电、燃气、电网与公用事业信用", "titleEn": "Cloud self-generation is shifting AI delivery risk into nuclear, gas, grid assets, and utility credit", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-026aa1679b/", "laneId": "lane_136dd1c3c708", "lane": "云厂商自发电/电力资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cloud-self-generation-and-power-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 49, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI 数据中心电力瓶颈：utilities、电网设备与 firm power 受益链条", "summary": "AI 数据中心电力瓶颈：utilities、电网设备与 firm power 受益链条", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2b48eeed3745/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI Power Premium：公用事业泡沫，还是能源制度切换？", "summary": "研究记录 01 大类资产配置视角 截至 2026-05-02 Asia/Singapore", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-43ca103dba97/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "VST", "CEG", "GEV", "SMR", "META", "ETN", "MSFT", "AMZN", "AEP", "NVDA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-1aaa752ed4", "title": "AI 电力与电网瓶颈仍是基础设施主线", "titleEn": "AI power and grid bottlenecks remain the infrastructure core", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-1aaa752ed4/", "laneId": "lane_10d7884cbe65", "lane": "AI 电力/电网设备", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-power-and-grid-equipment/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 45, "supports": 1, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "AI 数据中心电力瓶颈：utilities、电网设备与 firm power 受益链条", "summary": "AI 数据中心电力瓶颈：utilities、电网设备与 firm power 受益链条", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2b48eeed3745/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI Power Premium：公用事业泡沫，还是能源制度切换？", "summary": "研究记录 01 大类资产配置视角 截至 2026-05-02 Asia/Singapore", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-43ca103dba97/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GEV", "ETN", "VST", "CEG", "002028.SZ", "META", "600089.SH", "MSFT", "601179.SH", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f23572dfb8", "title": "Advance th_p_2ca41751 (能源价格冲突引发的全球通胀路径分化): 若 Brent 在停火提案与航运威胁之间维持 85…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: Advance th_p_2ca41751 (能源价格冲突引发的全球通胀路径分化): 若 Brent 在停火提案与航运威胁之间维持 85…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f23572dfb8/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "130 美元 Brent 持续两个季度下的新兴市场主权信用压力测试", "summary": "分析师： 首席风控官 (chief-risk, reviewer) 立场： stress-test（压力测试） 日期： 2026-05-02 问题： 若 Brent 油价在 130 美元维持超过两个季度，哪些能源进口依赖型新兴经济体的 CDS 将触...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-42c867d897ac/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "0857.HK", "SLB" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4f541b33ff", "title": "美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美联储'更高更久'与坚挺美元对人民币、日元及新兴市场货币的传导", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4f541b33ff/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导", "summary": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导 压力测试：外汇市场是否已开始定价美联储独立性折价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0365dbba6adf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4b64fc19f4", "title": "日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利交易无序平仓（USD/JPY跌破158）与离岸CNH HIBOR骤升至12%共振下，人民币-权益相关性翻转至+0.35且组合Va…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4b64fc19f4/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导", "summary": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导 压力测试：外汇市场是否已开始定价美联储独立性折价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0365dbba6adf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e4e956cd41", "title": "通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 通胀粘性加就业放缓环境下的跨资产配置", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e4e956cd41/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导", "summary": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导 压力测试：外汇市场是否已开始定价美联储独立性折价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0365dbba6adf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-950a54ea98", "title": "保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 保留 65–70% 远期/NDF 锁 carry，用 USD/JPY 价差看跌+敲入条件 call、USD/CNH 区间远期、HKD/C…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-950a54ea98/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导", "summary": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导 压力测试：外汇市场是否已开始定价美联储独立性折价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0365dbba6adf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-80c15f4a7d", "title": "再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 再配置后 AI 上游租金篮子的 JPY/USD/HKD/CNH 对冲比例", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-80c15f4a7d/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导", "summary": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导 压力测试：外汇市场是否已开始定价美联储独立性折价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0365dbba6adf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-07b4ef2695", "title": "地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 地缘利好引发的油价下跌能否抵消美联储新主席 Warsh 的鹰派立场？当前的‘高价高偏斜’是否暗示结构性崩塌风险？", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-07b4ef2695/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 81, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "研究报告：130美元油价下的美股科技估值压缩与港股高股息轮动", "summary": "1. 宏观背景：“滞胀锁死”体制 正如研究记录 03 所确立的，原油价格受霍尔木兹海峡关闭及阿联酋退出 OPEC 驱动飙升至 130 美元/桶，这使全球经济陷入滞胀。美联储为应对能源通胀维持 3.75% 的...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f38fe6867a72/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CVX", "XOM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-86be10e7fb", "title": "为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 为应对外交预期透支与高油价冲击，宏观组合必须激进缩短美债久期、超配原油与铜期货，并对冲多头人民币头寸，以配合A股15-20%的“真防御”…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-86be10e7fb/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "summary": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-127ae0379a55/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "CVX", "XOM" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f0b8d44918", "title": "美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国更高更久与偏强美元约束下，中国2026年下半年的货币宽松空间及其向人民币与A股流动性的传导", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f0b8d44918/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "summary": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-127ae0379a55/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-e58a9e8746", "title": "日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元carry平仓触发后的全球债券与成长股配置冲击", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-e58a9e8746/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导", "summary": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导 压力测试：外汇市场是否已开始定价美联储独立性折价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0365dbba6adf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d74ae315e8", "title": "当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 当美元兑日元触及160.08并触发日本央行物理干预（抛售美债）时，离岸美元流动性收紧是否会迫使黄金与权益相关性翻正至+0.55，从而使传…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d74ae315e8/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导", "summary": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导 压力测试：外汇市场是否已开始定价美联储独立性折价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0365dbba6adf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-0011ad682c", "title": "美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 美国过度紧缩/政策错误尾部向中国政策空间与A股的传导，及对th_p_2e6514df分红+久期定位的验证", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-0011ad682c/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导", "summary": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导 压力测试：外汇市场是否已开始定价美联储独立性折价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0365dbba6adf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "JPM", "TLT", "IEF" ] }, { "id": "thesis-69025fa4b4", "title": "驱动对冲阶梯的 Fed / BoJ / ECB 政策路径", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 驱动对冲阶梯的 Fed / BoJ / ECB 政策路径", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-69025fa4b4/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导", "summary": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导 压力测试：外汇市场是否已开始定价美联储独立性折价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0365dbba6adf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-29b1c0d6c7", "title": "日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日银本周加息至1.0%、美联储维持3.50–3.75%不变的双向利差收敛背景下,USD/JPY ~160的日元套利交易是有序拆解还是面临…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-29b1c0d6c7/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 79, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导", "summary": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导 压力测试：外汇市场是否已开始定价美联储独立性折价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0365dbba6adf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-03dab97a77", "title": "人民币稳定使当前应保留滞胀杠铃，但用黄金、久期与轻USD对冲把组合从单一A股Beta改造成可按黄/红档汇率阶梯再平衡的跨资产防御组合。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 人民币稳定使当前应保留滞胀杠铃，但用黄金、久期与轻USD对冲把组合从单一A股Beta改造成可按黄/红档汇率阶梯再平衡的跨资产防御组合。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-03dab97a77/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "summary": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-127ae0379a55/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-594ba5e705", "title": "在中美利差走阔且输入型AI信用冲击升级的情形下，USD/CNY能否守住6.85缓冲翻转线", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 在中美利差走阔且输入型AI信用冲击升级的情形下，USD/CNY能否守住6.85缓冲翻转线", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-594ba5e705/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "summary": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-127ae0379a55/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7930de9cdc", "title": "沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 沃什时代的鹰派首秀通过重塑全球利差优势将美元重新‘武器化’，这不仅加剧了非美货币的贬值压力，更迫使全球套利交易进入深刻的风险重定价阶段。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7930de9cdc/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "summary": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-127ae0379a55/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-c951442d7f", "title": "日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元套利拆仓与跨境流动性的实弹压力测试", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-c951442d7f/", "laneId": "lane_f3e413e8ce27", "lane": "日元套息/EM 科技流动性", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/yen-carry-and-em-tech-liquidity/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导", "summary": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导 压力测试：外汇市场是否已开始定价美联储独立性折价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0365dbba6adf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "FXY", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-97f10202a2", "title": "中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 中美利差走宽对中国货币政策空间及人民币汇率稳定性的影响分析", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-97f10202a2/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "summary": "前序研究 — 外汇综合：A股\"国家队\"作为央行隐性冲销池，以及为何 USD/CNY 必破 7.35", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-127ae0379a55/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-27c1e713e6", "title": "日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 日元兑美元突破162.052，若日本官方实施抛售美债进行实际干预，是否会推动10Y美债收益率（当前4.49%）飙升？如何传导并冲击全球高…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-27c1e713e6/", "laneId": "lane_1c216bd29875", "lane": "美债利率/美元再定价", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导", "summary": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导 压力测试：外汇市场是否已开始定价美联储独立性折价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0365dbba6adf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TLT", "IEF", "UUP" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3bf2a3ec55", "title": "请先统一事实读数与压力情景：CNH HIBOR 12.00%和USD/JPY 162.18应否进入今日基准？若仅为情景，A股β≈0.28…", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 请先统一事实读数与压力情景：CNH HIBOR 12.00%和USD/JPY 162.18应否进入今日基准？若仅为情景，A股β≈0.28…", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3bf2a3ec55/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 78, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导", "summary": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导 压力测试：外汇市场是否已开始定价美联储独立性折价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0365dbba6adf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-979591277f", "title": "能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 能源通胀粘性背景下美联储政策路径与美元走势及利差交易风险", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-979591277f/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导", "summary": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导 压力测试：外汇市场是否已开始定价美联储独立性折价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0365dbba6adf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-250964b5dc", "title": "强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 强美元仍需作为中国风险组合的保险，但新增风险预算应从裸多DXY转向有界USD/CNH保护，并主动削减以JPY/CHF融资的拥挤新兴市场套息。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-250964b5dc/", "laneId": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "lane": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 77, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导", "summary": "第三张牌：美元储备溢价、USD/JPY套息交易与CNY外溢传导 压力测试：外汇市场是否已开始定价美联储独立性折价", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-0365dbba6adf/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ab1fb6a453", "title": "DeepSeek 式低价模型正在重塑 AI 定价权与软件利润池", "titleEn": "DeepSeek-style low-cost models are reshaping AI pricing power and software profit pools", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ab1fb6a453/", "laneId": "lane_13710af7e06d", "lane": "低价模型/AI 软件利润池", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/low-cost-models-and-ai-software-profit-pools/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 72, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "TMT 行业压力测试", "summary": "主题: AI 龙头疲劳与全球风格轮动 问题: DeepSeek V4 之后，国产算力、光模块、AIDC、服务器 ODM 的 2026 年资本开支指引、AI 算力毛利率、订单与盈利兑现度，是否仍支持前序研究提出的“龙头疲...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-541d99528a53/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "BABA", "MSFT", "BIDU", "9988.HK", "CRM", "0700.HK", "NVDA", "NOW", "9888.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d8170c3a35", "title": "近海资本开支与设备利用率驱动油服盈利弹性", "titleEn": "Offshore capex and equipment utilization drive oilfield-service earnings leverage", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d8170c3a35/", "laneId": "lane_93300d58763e", "lane": "油气/地缘通胀", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "研究报告：130美元油价下的美股科技估值压缩与港股高股息轮动", "summary": "1. 宏观背景：“滞胀锁死”体制 正如研究记录 03 所确立的，原油价格受霍尔木兹海峡关闭及阿联酋退出 OPEC 驱动飙升至 130 美元/桶，这使全球经济陷入滞胀。美联储为应对能源通胀维持 3.75% 的...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f38fe6867a72/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "CVX", "XOM", "0883.HK", "COP", "2883.HK", "SLB", "OXY" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ffa474a3f2", "title": "端侧 AI 与 Agent 桌面正在把算力竞争从云端扩展到芯片、OS 与消费电子供应链", "titleEn": "Edge AI and agent desktops are extending compute competition from cloud to chips, OS, and consumer-electronics supply...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ffa474a3f2/", "laneId": "lane_74d352e86208", "lane": "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/edge-ai-and-agent-desktop-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "Wave 2 企业推理：压力测试 2026 Q3–Q4 重估时间表", "summary": "既有研究记录— Wave 2 企业推理：压力测试 2026 Q3–Q4 重估时间表", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-5c0e3d8a15b8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "MSFT", "NVDA", "META", "AAPL", "AMZN", "AMD", "ARM", "QCOM", "GOOGL", "002475.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0", "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层", "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI 基础设施资本开支与超大云服务商电力需求可持续性，2027-2030 年", "summary": "AI 基础设施资本开支与超大云服务商电力需求可持续性，2027-2030 年", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-baffd9142311/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "TSM", "AVGO", "AAPL", "TSLA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-3cb5657bb3", "title": "智能驾驶供应商拐点取决于定点转量产和毛利率修复", "titleEn": "The smart-driving supplier inflection depends on program conversion and margin recovery", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-3cb5657bb3/", "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da", "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "港美股策略压力测试：全球AI是否被TMT路由截流？", "summary": "我对前两张研究记录的推论做压力测试，结论是基本支持“截流”假设。现有证据 不能 说明路由系统在涉及 NVIDIA、Microsoft、美国AI监管或全球AI产业链时优先匹配 offshore-strategist。证据更接...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9ccfca17a16a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSLA", "NVDA", "GOOGL", "1274.HK", "002594.SZ", "XPEV" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8b8ede3135", "title": "消费降级、健康刚需与银发经济正在重塑防御型增长", "titleEn": "Consumer downgrade, healthcare necessities, and the silver economy are reshaping defensive growth", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8b8ede3135/", "laneId": "lane_8cf8740aac77", "lane": "消费降级/健康银发", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/consumer-downgrade-health-and-silver-economy/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "第二卡 — 居民消费能否验证PMI复苏？", "summary": "第二卡 — 居民消费能否验证PMI复苏？ 消费行业渠道调研：2026年4月至5月", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-d2ddff427ad8/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600519.SH", "3690.HK", "001215.SZ", "600276.SH", "300760.SZ", "1801.HK", "1177.HK", "2319.HK", "UNH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-7a6599a3f5", "title": "新一代信息技术国产替代要从信创叙事进入算力、软件与安全订单验证", "titleEn": "Domestic IT substitution must move from policy narrative to compute, software, and security order proof", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-7a6599a3f5/", "laneId": "lane_e4f90acbf804", "lane": "信创/国产 IT 栈", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/domestic-it-substitution-stack/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "前序研究：A股AI应用层与云计算/IDC核心标的自下而上基本面压力测试", "summary": "前序研究：A股AI应用层与云计算/IDC核心标的自下而上基本面压力测试 科大讯飞星火路线图可信度 · 数据港IDC预租赁质量 · 金山办公信创AI收入能见度 · 中软国际华为生态依赖度风险评估", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-26ad2a809273/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "688256.SH", "688041.SH", "688981.SH", "0981.HK", "300308.SZ", "NVDA", "000977.SZ", "688008.SH", "688012.SH", "688111.SH" ] }, { "id": "thesis-bef6966fdd", "title": "工业机械的出口订单质量和设备更新周期决定制造业 CapEx 弹性", "titleEn": "Industrial machinery beta depends on export-order quality and equipment-upgrade capex", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-bef6966fdd/", "laneId": "lane_6e2dcaab093e", "lane": "工业机械/设备更新出海", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/industrial-machinery-equipment-upgrade-and-exports/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 59, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-05-17 内陆物流传导审计：JBHT、HUBG 与工业机械", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-05-17（亚洲/新加坡）。我 支持 既有研究记录的串行 beta 交棒，但需要收窄表达方式：2026-06-08 至 06-15 的到货峰值会带来正向、但时间窗口较短的内陆物流 beta，最...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-73414e4adc80/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "600031.SH", "600761.SH", "002747.SZ", "000425.SZ", "603338.SH", "603298.SH", "000157.SZ", "601100.SH", "300124.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-485a630a87", "title": "自动驾驶与 Robotaxi 主题必须从演示热度进入单位经济和监管城市扩张验证", "titleEn": "Autonomous driving and robotaxi themes must move from demo excitement to unit economics and regulated city expansion", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-485a630a87/", "laneId": "lane_0cb100fcf8da", "lane": "自动驾驶/Robotaxi 单位经济", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/autonomous-driving-and-robotaxi-unit-economics/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 51, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "港美股策略压力测试：全球AI是否被TMT路由截流？", "summary": "我对前两张研究记录的推论做压力测试，结论是基本支持“截流”假设。现有证据 不能 说明路由系统在涉及 NVIDIA、Microsoft、美国AI监管或全球AI产业链时优先匹配 offshore-strategist。证据更接...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-9ccfca17a16a/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "GOOGL", "TSLA", "NVDA", "META", "MSFT", "AMZN", "BIDU", "XPEV", "002594.SZ", "2015.HK" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d6b2c23ed6", "title": "航运与物流成本是油价、关税和供应链再通胀的二阶传导器", "titleEn": "Shipping and logistics costs are a second-order transmission channel for oil, tariffs, and supply-chain reflation", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d6b2c23ed6/", "laneId": "lane_79a55cd8530e", "lane": "航运物流/再通胀传导", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/shipping-logistics-and-reflation-transmission/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 44, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-05-17 内陆物流传导审计：JBHT、HUBG 与工业机械", "summary": "工作日期： 2026-05-17（亚洲/新加坡）。我 支持 既有研究记录的串行 beta 交棒，但需要收窄表达方式：2026-06-08 至 06-15 的到货峰值会带来正向、但时间窗口较短的内陆物流 beta，最...", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-73414e4adc80/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "601919.SH", "1919.HK", "ZIM", "MATX", "600026.SH", "600018.SH", "BOAT" ] } ], "lanes": [ { "id": "lane_c40c2ce413ec", "title": "人民币/美元流动性敏感资产", "href": "/investor/lanes/rmb-dollar-and-liquidity-sensitive-assets/", "thesisCount": 12, "eventCount": 13, "convictionTotal": 947, "stockTickers": [ "3988.HK", "UUP", "FXI" ], "avgConviction": 79 }, { "id": "lane_93300d58763e", "title": "油气/地缘通胀", "href": "/investor/lanes/oil-gas-and-geopolitical-inflation/", "thesisCount": 5, "eventCount": 6, "convictionTotal": 359, "stockTickers": [ "0883.HK", "0857.HK", "SLB", "CVX", "XOM", "COP", "2883.HK", "OXY", "CME", "600938.SH", "600900.SH", "601857.SH" ], "avgConviction": 72 }, { "id": "lane_1c216bd29875", "title": "美债利率/美元再定价", "href": "/investor/lanes/us-rates-and-dollar-repricing/", "thesisCount": 5, "eventCount": 5, "convictionTotal": 396, 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