{
  "schema": "researchos.hundred_days.day.v1",
  "date": "2026-04-27",
  "dayNumber": 6,
  "status": "recorded",
  "headline": "算力分配格局重塑：在模型层多极化下对GPU与ASIC供应逻辑的压力测试",
  "summary": "当日归档 3 份公开研究，20 条研究讨论和 3 个 thesis 证据事件；研究密度最高的方向为中国资产与市场结构。",
  "dominantTopic": {
    "id": "china-assets",
    "labelZh": "中国资产与市场结构",
    "labelEn": "China assets and market structure",
    "color": "orange",
    "keywords": [
      "a股",
      "港股",
      "科创50",
      "star50",
      "中国资产",
      "msci",
      "两融",
      "人民币"
    ],
    "count": 2
  },
  "activityScore": 70,
  "metrics": {
    "reports": 3,
    "researchThreads": 20,
    "researchNotes": 185,
    "thesisEvents": 3,
    "personaEvents": 0,
    "readerMemos": 0,
    "recaps": 0,
    "deepResearch": 0
  },
  "reports": [
    {
      "id": "archive-c3a93e363a17",
      "title": "算力分配格局重塑：在模型层多极化下对GPU与ASIC供应逻辑的压力测试",
      "date": "2026-04-27",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c3a93e363a17/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "算力分配格局重塑：在模型层多极化下对GPU与ASIC供应逻辑的压力测试 既有研究记录 — TMT行业分析师 — 工作日期 2026-06-01（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：stress-test（在prior research...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "通胀",
        "宏观",
        "港美股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-49dcde4b188c",
      "title": "最终质量审计：“市值退市”潮下的A股生态重构",
      "date": "2026-04-27",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-49dcde4b188c/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "评级：needs-revision。 我综合并大体支持前七张研究记录的研究主线，但不给予无条件通过。核心结论是连贯的：A股正在从散户驱动的上市溢价市场，转向机构过滤的流动性溢价市场。从政策执行、ET...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    },
    {
      "id": "archive-1c37d43f6e55",
      "title": "“市值退市”潮下的A股生态重构",
      "date": "2026-04-27",
      "href": "/investor/reports/archive-1c37d43f6e55/",
      "analyst": "未识别",
      "analystId": "",
      "category": "其他",
      "excerpt": "我支持当前主线判断，但需要加一个限定：A股并不是在简单意义上变成“机构持有”的市场，因为散户账户仍然占绝对多数；真正发生的是“A股正在变成由机构定价的市场”。强制退市制度、ETF/被动资...",
      "tags": [
        "AI",
        "A股",
        "风险"
      ],
      "sourceKind": "research_thread"
    }
  ],
  "discussions": [
    {
      "title": "2026 Q1之后超大规模云厂商AI资本开支可持续性",
      "question": "Q1 2026财报季后，Amazon/Alphabet/Meta/Microsoft合计AI capex指引上修至约6,400亿美元（同比+36%，AI占比约75%），但Alphabet与Meta的2026年FCF被预计同比缩水...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "TMT行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "2026Q1 美国超大规模云厂商 AI Capex 风向标：超级周期延续还是进入消化期",
      "question": "基于本周（2026-04-21 至 2026-04-30）MSFT/META/GOOGL/AMZN 四大云厂商 Q1 2026 电话会的 capex 指引、订单 backlog 与 AI 收入贡献披露，AI 基础设施投资周期...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "TMT行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "2026年AI基础设施资本开支、半导体供给与云利润压力",
      "question": "2026年超大规模云厂商继续上修AI资本开支，究竟是在确认可持续需求，还是在积累折旧、电力和供给瓶颈风险？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "TMT行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "2026年AI芯片供应链与代理化AI硬件需求分析",
      "question": "随着2026年AI应用进入“代理化”阶段，推理算力需求激增，HBM4与先进封装（CoWoS）的产能缺口如何影响全球AI芯片的供应格局？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "TMT行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "2026年Q1超大规模云厂商AI资本开支与电力供给瓶颈：算力受限是否切换为千瓦受限",
      "question": "在MSFT/GOOGL/META/AMZN/ORCL即将披露2026Q1业绩并更新FY2026 capex指引之际,AI基础设施投资是否正在从'芯片受限'切换为'千瓦受限',从而改写2026H2-2027的算力供...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "TMT行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "2026年一季度中国新能源汽车“内冷外热”分化与出口对冲能力",
      "question": "在购置税政策退坡和国内零售走弱背景下，新能源车出口高增能否有效对冲内需压力，并成为二季度汽车板块的主要投资线索？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "auto-analyst",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "2026年一季度宏观经济形势分析与“十五五”开局展望",
      "question": "在“十五五”规划开局之年，内需修复与全球贸易波动如何重塑中国2026年的增长动力？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "首席经济学家",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "2026年全球宏观变局：AI生产力周期与债务天花板下的政策范式转移",
      "question": "在高债务约束与AI技术渗透的共振下，全球政策范式如何经历从“长期高利率 (H4L)”向“财政受限型平衡利率”的结构性转移？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "全球宏观分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "2026年四大超大规模云厂商AI资本开支约7,000亿美元的可持续性,以及电力瓶颈对Capex落地节奏的真实约束",
      "question": "在自由现金流被显著挤压、电网与变压器排队进入'以年计'的当下,本周(4月24-30日)Microsoft/Meta/Alphabet/Amazon的FY26一季报会兑现还是修正这条7,000亿美元的Ca...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "TMT行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "AI基础设施的范式转移：从云端训练向端侧推理的跨越",
      "question": "随着大模型向端侧（Edge AI）和大规模推理转移，半导体供应链中哪些环节将迎来爆发式增长，特别是存储器（HBM4）和先进制程（2nm）的需求变化？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "TMT行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "AI端侧革命与半导体供应链重构",
      "question": "2024-2025年AI端侧设备渗透率激增对全球存储与SoC需求格局的具体影响及供应商竞争态势分析？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "TMT行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "Wrote research discussion/78fb6f78 9f94 4ec8 aa2d ed7cac140a7a/既有研究记录report.md (3305 bytes); wrote resear...",
      "question": "Use fresh search to choose one concrete, timely research topic inside Equity/bond/commodity allocation, risk parity, all-weather / Risk Parity Rebalan...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "大类资产配置师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "中国新能源乘用车出口在2026年一季度后的可持续性",
      "question": "在国内乘用车零售仍处于税收补贴调整期、欧洲贸易壁垒仍未完全解除的背景下，新能源车出口能否成为2026年中国车企销量与利润的主要缓冲？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "auto-analyst",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "全球 AI 基建资本开支周期：2026 下半年的可持续性",
      "question": "在四大美股超大规模云厂商 2026 全年合计 AI 资本开支已上修至约 4,000 亿美元量级的背景下，这一资本开支周期能否延续到 2026 下半年？哪些边际信号将决定其拐...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "TMT行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "台积电 2026Q1 创纪录业绩与全球 Hyperscaler 6300 亿美元资本开支共振:AI 算力周期是否仍在中段?",
      "question": "结合台积电 357 亿美元单季营收、520-560 亿美元 2026 年资本开支指引,以及四大云厂 6300 亿美元 AI 资本开支与微软 800 亿美元因供电延迟的未交付订单,本轮 AI...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "TMT行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "超大规模厂商2026年AI资本开支峰值的可持续性 — Q1业绩季的早期信号",
      "question": "在主要超大规模云厂商把2026年综合capex指引上修至$420–450B区间后,Q1业绩季的AI ROI变现、折旧拐点与算力供需是否已经支持capex维持峰值?是否已显现产能过剩苗...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "TMT行业分析师",
      "noteCount": 10,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "AI-Biology「ChatGPT 时刻」三重证据交叉验证：基础模型跃迁 × 首批临床读出 × 资本与大药企结构性下注",
      "question": "AI-Biology 融合是否已抵达「ChatGPT 时刻」？衡量这一拐点应当使用哪三类证据？2026 Q2 的实际数据是支持还是证伪？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "主题研究员",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "Temu 全球增长是否进入结构性平台期：PDD ADR 重新定价",
      "question": "Temu 是否已经进入结构性增长平台期？港美股策略视角下的 PDD ADR 应如何重新定价？",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "offshore-strategist",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "研究报告：AI“电力墙”硬约束下的公用事业估值重塑 1. 核心发现：从“类债资产”到“AI基础设施”的身份跨越 在AI算力竞赛的下...",
      "question": "Use fresh search to choose one concrete, timely research topic inside US/EU/Japan economy, global trade, geopolitical risks / Geopolitical Alert, then...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "全球宏观分析师",
      "noteCount": 8,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    },
    {
      "title": "Model-selected kickoff research",
      "question": "Select one analyst from the institute roster, search for a timely research angle inside that domain, complete the first research card, then hand off t...",
      "status": "completed",
      "analyst": "Model Kickoff",
      "noteCount": 1,
      "href": "/investor/console/#operations"
    }
  ],
  "thesisEvents": [
    {
      "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0",
      "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层",
      "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/",
      "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a",
      "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 67,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "算力分配格局重塑：在模型层多极化下对GPU与ASIC供应逻辑的压力测试",
          "summary": "算力分配格局重塑：在模型层多极化下对GPU与ASIC供应逻辑的压力测试 既有研究记录 — TMT行业分析师 — 工作日期 2026-06-01（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：stress-test（在prior research...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c3a93e363a17/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "NVDA",
        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL",
        "TSM",
        "AVGO",
        "AAPL",
        "TSLA"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-a10279b001",
      "title": "面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 面对 Meta 自建 Meta Compute 算力集群的传闻，Nebius (NBIS) 的 270 亿美元合同是否仍具备护城河？散户…",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-a10279b001/",
      "laneId": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "lane": "AI 算力半导体",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "算力分配格局重塑：在模型层多极化下对GPU与ASIC供应逻辑的压力测试",
          "summary": "算力分配格局重塑：在模型层多极化下对GPU与ASIC供应逻辑的压力测试 既有研究记录 — TMT行业分析师 — 工作日期 2026-06-01（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：stress-test（在prior research...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c3a93e363a17/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "AMD",
        "AVGO"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "thesis-d1f5e35b43",
      "title": "2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC",
      "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC",
      "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d1f5e35b43/",
      "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "direction": "conflicting",
      "directionLabel": "分歧",
      "conviction": 66,
      "supports": 0,
      "risks": 1,
      "neutral": 0,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "events": [
        {
          "title": "算力分配格局重塑：在模型层多极化下对GPU与ASIC供应逻辑的压力测试",
          "summary": "算力分配格局重塑：在模型层多极化下对GPU与ASIC供应逻辑的压力测试 既有研究记录 — TMT行业分析师 — 工作日期 2026-06-01（亚洲/新加坡） 立场：stress-test（在prior research...",
          "href": "/investor/reports/archive-c3a93e363a17/",
          "stance": "risk",
          "stanceLabel": "风险"
        }
      ],
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "lanes": [
    {
      "id": "lane_f21fc181388a",
      "title": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/",
      "thesisCount": 1,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "convictionTotal": 67,
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "MSFT",
        "NVDA",
        "AMZN",
        "GOOGL",
        "TSM",
        "AVGO",
        "AAPL",
        "TSLA"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 67
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_f44cf45c8649",
      "title": "AI 算力半导体",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/ai-compute-semiconductors/",
      "thesisCount": 1,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "convictionTotal": 66,
      "stockTickers": [
        "META",
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "AMD",
        "AVGO"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 66
    },
    {
      "id": "lane_f1a271385aff",
      "title": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门",
      "href": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/",
      "thesisCount": 1,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "convictionTotal": 66,
      "stockTickers": [
        "NVDA",
        "TSM",
        "MU",
        "000660.KS"
      ],
      "avgConviction": 66
    }
  ],
  "stocks": [
    {
      "ticker": "NVDA",
      "name": "NVIDIA",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/NVDA/",
      "thesisCount": 3,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "lanes": [
        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
        "AI 算力半导体",
        "先进封装/HBM4 闸门"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "TSM",
      "name": "TSMC",
      "market": "US ADR",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/TSM/",
      "thesisCount": 3,
      "eventCount": 3,
      "lanes": [
        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
        "AI 算力半导体",
        "先进封装/HBM4 闸门"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "META",
      "name": "Meta Platforms",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/META/",
      "thesisCount": 2,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "lanes": [
        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
        "AI 算力半导体"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "AVGO",
      "name": "Broadcom",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/AVGO/",
      "thesisCount": 2,
      "eventCount": 2,
      "lanes": [
        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层",
        "AI 算力半导体"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "MSFT",
      "name": "Microsoft",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/MSFT/",
      "thesisCount": 1,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "lanes": [
        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "AMZN",
      "name": "Amazon",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/AMZN/",
      "thesisCount": 1,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "lanes": [
        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "GOOGL",
      "name": "Alphabet",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/GOOGL/",
      "thesisCount": 1,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "lanes": [
        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "AAPL",
      "name": "Apple",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/AAPL/",
      "thesisCount": 1,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "lanes": [
        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "TSLA",
      "name": "Tesla",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/TSLA/",
      "thesisCount": 1,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "lanes": [
        "Mag7 AI 平台再分层"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "AMD",
      "name": "AMD",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/AMD/",
      "thesisCount": 1,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "lanes": [
        "AI 算力半导体"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "MU",
      "name": "Micron",
      "market": "US",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/MU/",
      "thesisCount": 1,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "lanes": [
        "先进封装/HBM4 闸门"
      ]
    },
    {
      "ticker": "000660.KS",
      "name": "SK hynix",
      "market": "Korea",
      "href": "/investor/stocks/000660.KS/",
      "thesisCount": 1,
      "eventCount": 1,
      "lanes": [
        "先进封装/HBM4 闸门"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "personas": [],
  "episodes": [],
  "milestones": [],
  "topicCounts": [
    {
      "id": "china-assets",
      "labelZh": "中国资产与市场结构",
      "labelEn": "China assets and market structure",
      "color": "orange",
      "keywords": [
        "a股",
        "港股",
        "科创50",
        "star50",
        "中国资产",
        "msci",
        "两融",
        "人民币"
      ],
      "count": 2
    },
    {
      "id": "ai-infrastructure",
      "labelZh": "AI 基础设施",
      "labelEn": "AI infrastructure",
      "color": "blue",
      "keywords": [
        "ai 基础设施",
        "ai infrastructure",
        "算力",
        "gpu",
        "数据中心",
        "data center",
        "nvda",
        "nvidia"
      ],
      "count": 1
    }
  ],
  "analystCounts": [
    {
      "label": "未识别",
      "count": 3
    }
  ],
  "categoryCounts": [
    {
      "label": "其他",
      "count": 3
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "contemporaneous": true,
    "note": "This day view is assembled from public, date-stamped AI Institute research contracts."
  }
}