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0, "eventCount": 2, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-23 TMT压力测试：CoWoS与HBM会成为AI Capex的新瓶颈吗？", "summary": "2026-06-23 TMT压力测试：CoWoS与HBM会成为AI Capex的新瓶颈吗？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eac9a245c29c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" }, { "title": "AI 利润向算力底座迁移的证据：半导体与网络核心硬件的毛利韧性 — 2026-05-26", "summary": "AI 利润向算力底座迁移的证据：半导体与网络核心硬件的毛利韧性 — 2026-05-26", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-f8876294e5ea/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "META", "AMD", "AVGO", "MU", "MSFT", "000660.KS", "GOOGL", "AMZN" ] }, { "id": "thesis-4e383ee09c", "title": "2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片与先进封装产能约束会推高并拉长云端CapEx，而不是使其取消；配置应偏向具备配额权的上游瓶颈环节。", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-4e383ee09c/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 65, 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], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "META", "MU", "000660.KS", "TSM", "AMD", "AVGO" ] }, { "id": "thesis-ffa474a3f2", "title": "端侧 AI 与 Agent 桌面正在把算力竞争从云端扩展到芯片、OS 与消费电子供应链", "titleEn": "Edge AI and agent desktops are extending compute competition from cloud to chips, OS, and consumer-electronics supply...", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-ffa474a3f2/", "laneId": "lane_74d352e86208", "lane": "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/edge-ai-and-agent-desktop-cycle/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 68, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI端侧Agent与PC芯片利润池重分配 - 首席策略师研究记录，2026-06-02", "summary": "AI端侧Agent与PC芯片利润池重分配 - 首席策略师研究记录，2026-06-02", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-adc965b17fa5/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "MSFT", "NVDA", "META", "AAPL", "AMZN", "AMD", "ARM", "QCOM", "GOOGL", "002475.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-8c5a9690a0", "title": "Mag7 在 AI 时代从平台垄断转向基础设施再分层", "titleEn": "Mag7 shifts from platform monopoly to AI infrastructure re-layering", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-8c5a9690a0/", "laneId": "lane_f21fc181388a", "lane": "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/mag7-ai-platform-re-layering/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 67, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI价值链利润再分配：轻资产设计/EDA与重资产GPU云的公司层级利润池与产能曲线", "summary": "AI价值链利润再分配：轻资产设计/EDA与重资产GPU云的公司层级利润池与产能曲线", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-072050b5284f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "META", "MSFT", "NVDA", "AMZN", "GOOGL", "TSM", "AVGO", "AAPL", "TSLA" ] }, { "id": "thesis-d1f5e35b43", "title": "2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC", "titleEn": "Practical research topic: 2026年AI芯片竞争格局：NVIDIA Rubin对阵云巨头ASIC", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-d1f5e35b43/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 66, "supports": 1, "risks": 0, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "AI价值链利润再分配：轻资产设计/EDA与重资产GPU云的公司层级利润池与产能曲线", "summary": "AI价值链利润再分配：轻资产设计/EDA与重资产GPU云的公司层级利润池与产能曲线", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-072050b5284f/", "stance": "supports", "stanceLabel": "支持" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "MU", "000660.KS" ] }, { "id": "thesis-be91bfe6ee", "title": "高纯石英材料需求需由先进封装订单验证", "titleEn": "High-purity quartz demand requires validation from advanced-packaging orders", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-be91bfe6ee/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 63, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-17 半导体压力测试：T3 触发、AI 资本开支下修与设计制造链传导", "summary": "2026-06-17 半导体压力测试：T3 触发、AI 资本开支下修与设计制造链传导", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-fb57ae551ea1/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "TSM", "NVDA", "000660.KS", "688012.SH", "MU", "ASML", "002916.SZ" ] }, { "id": "thesis-f5d7a79c82", "title": "HBM4、CoWoS 与背面供电正在成为 AI 服务器需求曲线的串行闸门", "titleEn": "HBM4, CoWoS, and backside power are becoming serial gates for the AI-server demand curve", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-f5d7a79c82/", "laneId": "lane_f1a271385aff", "lane": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 62, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "2026-06-23 TMT压力测试：CoWoS与HBM会成为AI Capex的新瓶颈吗？", "summary": "2026-06-23 TMT压力测试：CoWoS与HBM会成为AI Capex的新瓶颈吗？", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-eac9a245c29c/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "NVDA", "TSM", "000660.KS", "MU", "AMD", "META", "AVGO", "MSFT", "AMZN", "ASML" ] }, { "id": "thesis-42faeae623", "title": "CPO、光互联与铜连接决定 AI 集群内部租金迁移", "titleEn": "CPO, optical interconnect, and copper links define rent migration inside AI clusters", "href": "/investor/theses/thesis-42faeae623/", "laneId": "lane_1f0136d57956", "lane": "CPO/光模块/高速互联", "laneHref": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/", "direction": "conflicting", "directionLabel": "分歧", "conviction": 55, "supports": 0, "risks": 1, "neutral": 0, "eventCount": 1, "events": [ { "title": "北美云厂商2026H2 AI资本开支，能否真正传导到中资光模块订单？", "summary": "机构工作日期：2026-06-12（亚洲/新加坡）。 分析师：AI基础设施分析师。立场： 压力测试（stress-test）。。。", "href": "/investor/reports/archive-2a64753685b5/", "stance": "risk", "stanceLabel": "风险" } ], "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "NVDA", "AVGO", "META", "COHR", "LITE", "300394.SZ", "MRVL", "TSM", "MSFT" ] } ], "lanes": [ { "id": "lane_f1a271385aff", "title": "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "href": "/investor/lanes/advanced-packaging-and-hbm4-gate/", "thesisCount": 5, 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"GOOGL", "TSM", "AVGO", "AAPL", "TSLA" ], "avgConviction": 67 }, { "id": "lane_1f0136d57956", "title": "CPO/光模块/高速互联", "href": "/investor/lanes/cpo-optical-modules-and-high-speed-interconnect/", "thesisCount": 1, "eventCount": 1, "convictionTotal": 55, "stockTickers": [ "300308.SZ", "NVDA", "AVGO", "META", "COHR", "LITE", "300394.SZ", "MRVL", "TSM", "MSFT" ], "avgConviction": 55 } ], "stocks": [ { "ticker": "NVDA", "name": "NVIDIA", "market": "US", "href": "/investor/stocks/NVDA/", "thesisCount": 11, "eventCount": 14, "lanes": [ "AI 算力半导体", "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "端侧 AI/Agent 桌面", "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "CPO/光模块/高速互联" ] }, { "ticker": "TSM", "name": "TSMC", "market": "US ADR", "href": "/investor/stocks/TSM/", "thesisCount": 10, "eventCount": 13, "lanes": [ "AI 算力半导体", "先进封装/HBM4 闸门", "Mag7 AI 平台再分层", "CPO/光模块/高速互联" ] }, { "ticker": "MU", "name": "Micron", "market": "US", "href": "/investor/stocks/MU/", "thesisCount": 8, "eventCount": 11, "lanes": [ "AI 算力半导体", "先进封装/HBM4 闸门" ] }, { "ticker": 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